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Undergoing A Long-Awaited Transition After An Era Of Over Exuberance

A report from Bankrate. “‘California will be a prime target for price declines,’ says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. ‘It’s almost assured that expensive areas will go through some price adjustment.’ The retreat in home values doesn’t surprise housing economists. Many have been questioning just how far prices could climb. The once-frothy tech hubs of Northern California and Seattle are enduring the largest pullbacks in home values, according to CoreLogic.”

From KTAR in Arizona. “‘The fourth quarter of any year, seasonally for Greater Phoenix, regardless of the market, is the best time for buyers, frankly, because many sellers want to sell before the end of the year. It tends to be the slowest time anyway,’ Tina Tamboer of the Cromford Report. ‘You’re looking at about 42% of sales through the MLS [Multiple Listing Service] are including seller-paid closing costs, and some areas of the Valley that 70-80% of sales will involve a concession by the seller.'”

“‘Sellers need to be very realistic about the timeframe it’s going take to sell their home, that many offers are going be coming in with requests for closing cost assistance, with requests for repairs,’ she said. ‘The days of getting offers over asking price, waiving appraisals, those days are well over now.'”

The Dallas Business Journal in Texas. “The average price of a new house in Dallas-Fort Worth declined by more than $10,000 last month, and the new home sales count fell slightly. New home prices also dropped in Austin and San Antonio last month. DFW homebuilders are responding to sharply higher interest rates by offering incentives to buyers and higher commissions and bonuses for real estate agents, said Ben Caballero, CEO of ‘With inventory increasing, and the pace of new home sales stabilizing, Dallas builders are implementing multiple strategies to avoid price reductions,’ Caballero said in the latest report.”

“Dallas-Fort Worth active new home sale listings reported to the Multiple Listing Services increased last month, according to HomesUSA. In September, the three-month moving average of active new home listings in DFW was 6,249 compared to 5,581 in August. In addition to DFW, the Houston, Austin and San Antonio metro areas also reported an increase in new home sales inventory last month.”

Nevada Public Radio. “Las Vegas Realtors reports the median home price in Southern Nevada sits around $450,000. That’s down about $30,000 compared to May. And at the end of September, more than 10,000 homes, condos and townhomes were listed for sale without any sort of offer. Jon Gedde is the CEO of SimpliFi Mortgage and serves as chair of the Nevada Mortgage Lenders Association: ‘Interest rates have been very low for quite some time. And as the pandemic came and reared its ugly head, part of the strategy of the government was to put some additional capital into the market to make sure that the economy wouldn’t crash. One of the ways that they did that was buying mortgage-backed securities, which drove rates from the high … 4% range down into the low threes, and sometimes even into the twos. Now we’re in a very different economic situation, where there’s too much capital in the market, and prices have been increasing across the board and all sectors. The government needs to slow things down a bit, and the way they do that is by raising interest rates.'” in Massachusetts. “Looking at the town-by-town numbers, the year-over-year numbers for the Arlington single-family home market point to a downturn, but don’t be fooled. Sales were down 30.6% year over year, and the median sale price fell from $999,000 to $845,000 from September 2021 to September 2022.”

KUTV in Utah. “New numbers show slumping home sales along the Wasatch Front as mortgage rates keep rising. According to new data from the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, home sales in Salt Lake County fell 31 percent in September compared to the year before. ‘Mortgage rates are sinking home sales,’ said Dave Anderton, spokesperson for the Salt Lake Board of Realtors.”

From NBC News. “The businessman accused of swindling people out of their life savings by promising to build them tiny homes and not delivering is now the target of a police investigation. Matt Sowash, founder of the Colorado-based nonprofit Holy Ground Tiny Houses, has also filed for bankruptcy, court records revealed Wednesday. A convicted felon who previously served two years in prison for bilking investors in unrelated ventures, Sowash made the move to protect his assets just a month after he suggested in an interview with NBC News that he might not declare bankruptcy ‘because I can’t sit back and watch all those people lose homes.'”

“But Sowash sang a different tune in an Oct. 7 bankruptcy filing in Denver and in an Oct. 14 update that he sent to his customers. ‘This has really been a week of change,’ Sowash wrote. ‘I first want to apologize for this situation. Unfortunately, filing for Chapter 11 is the only way I can make sure the business is safe and that we can live up to our obligation of making sure everyone gets their money back.'”

“Customer Lori Birckhead, who runs the By Faith Farm in Tennessee with her husband, where they grow fresh vegetables for the needy. ‘The thing that hurts the most is, yes, we talked a lot about faith,’ she said of Sowash. ‘Part of why I was purchasing from him was because of what I heard from him. He came across as a godly person.’ Birckhead said she wired $46,504 to Sowash in April for an 8-foot-by-28 foot home that she was going to put on their land. She said she was told it would be delivered in July. ‘But here we are, and there’s no home,’ she said.”

WFTV in Florida. “Two families in Brevard County claim they paid for new roofs and then faced foreclosure threats because the roofing company didn’t pay its bills. A Florida law allows suppliers not paid by contractors to place liens against homeowners, who are then forced to pay twice or possibly lose their homes. ‘This is the new roof. It’s so beautiful,’ Pam Bender said. She’s happy with the way her roof looks but feels double-crossed by the contractor that installed it.”

“Bender says she paid Ben Kee Construction a total of $34,000 in full. Then months later, she received a notice. The roofing supplier had gone to court and placed a construction lien against her house because it had not been paid for materials used on her home. Bender said she questioned Ben Kee Construction and heard, ‘No, no, no, don’t worry about that. Don’t worry about that. We’ve got this covered.’ Two weeks later, she got a letter from the supplier informing her that unless she paid $16,000 for materials a second time, she could face foreclosure.”

From Bisnow. “Hundreds of shopping malls across the country require substantial investment to stay alive in today’s market, but disagreements over how much the properties are worth — even among professional appraisers — have left many of them sitting stagnant. ‘It’s a real Catch-22 happening across the country,’ said Trademark Property Co. CEO Terry Montesi, whose firm has completed multiple mall redevelopment projects. ‘Nobody’s selling anything, so there’s no comps, and appraisers just leave the values where they were, even though everybody knows the reason nobody’s selling anything is there’s no liquidity, they’re not worth hardly anything,’ Montesi said. ‘Appraisers aren’t making a guess that a $300M mall is now worth $100M, even though everybody knows that.'”

The Deep Dive. “A recent investigation by CBC Marketplace uncovered a ring of real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and even bank employees complicit in mortgage fraud, whom are raking in astounding amounts in fees from naive new Canadians. Although all of the agents acknowledged the couple would be disqualified from a mortgage, six of them said they are willing to create counterfeit documents on their behalf and know brokers that would submit the fraudulent documents to a bank.”

“‘You know, by books, you will not qualify,’ one agent was caught on camera saying. ‘They will do some documentation showing that you guys are making more and they will get you what you want. But they cannot openly say it out in public because that’s not true,’the agent continued, referring to connections they have that are willing to facilitate the process. ‘They will make a T4, they will make like she is on the payroll, they will use any company’s payroll and put their name onto that, right,’ another agent said.”

The Financial Post. “The buying and selling frenzy that drove Canada’s luxury real estate market to new heights during the pandemic continued to cool over the summer. Sales and listings of homes priced above $1 million fell across the country in the third quarter of 2022, as both buyers and sellers sat on the sidelines amid a weakening economy, bringing the market ‘back to reality,’ according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s latest luxury real estate report.”

“‘Canada’s conventional and luxury real estate markets are undergoing a long-awaited transition after an era of over exuberance during the pandemic, particularly in those regions that saw the most acceleration over the past two years,’ said Don Kottick, chief executive of Sotheby’s.”

The Telegraph. “Demand for new houses fell sharply in the wake of the mini-Budget as would-be buyers adjust to a world of permanently higher interest rates, one of Britain’s top developers has said. Jason Honeyman, chief executive of the house builder Bellway, said that market turmoil following the botched tax cuts had delivered a ‘shock to the system’ and sent new home reservations at his company tumbling by 40pc in the following three weeks. Mr Honeyman said: ‘I think everyone has to get used to the fact that the era of low interest rates of one or two per cent is over.'”

This Post Has 156 Comments
  1. ‘California will be a prime target for price declines,’ says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. ‘It’s almost assured that expensive areas will go through some price adjustment’

    How the mighty have fallen.

    ‘The retreat in home values doesn’t surprise housing economists. Many have been questioning just how far prices could climb’

    Thanks fer the laugh.

    1. I guess Lawrence no longer thinks Los Angeles is a “superstar city that defies gravity” as he did back in 2008 when he predicted prices would go UP 10-50% over the next 5 years.

    2. “Housing analysts generally agree that the market is due for a correction, and that the spike in mortgage rates during 2022 has hastened the downturn. However, almost no one anticipates a crash that would rival the plunge in home prices that characterized the Great Recession.”

      Then why bother publishing this piece?

      1. Simple answer: The deliberate motivation is to keep suckers from walking away from the boat anchor that is slowing dragging them under.

        Here’s what’s blatantly obvious…. Right now the speculation is over the top. Everything stated by casual observers goes something like “I’m gonna buy up a house or lot or ____ when prices fall enough”. Aside from addressing the peril in such stupidity, the declines will continue for as long as the dumb perspective like that persists and longer. Call it bulltrap or whatever cutesy debt donkey name degenerates use, it doesn’t matter because they’re already losing their ass, legs, arms and nuts.

        Long duration, slow drip, barely perceptible (and deliberately understated) losses for years until the bottom….. and then its too late. There’s a lot of fraud to get to the bottom of between now and then.

        1. I’m gonna buy up a house

          Is there any bigger fraud than that of those who “buy” something on a 15 or 30 year payment plan?

          1. How about those who buy on a 15 or 30 year payment plan with “fixed” interest rates which adjust after 3-5 years? That’s what we’re seeing in K-da and UK.

        2. This. “Long duration, slow drip, barely perceptible (and deliberately understated) losses for years until the bottom….. and then its too late. There’s a lot of fraud to get to the bottom of between now and then.”

          One of the big questions this time is how will the foreclosure volume be handled? In many respects the bailout already happened both for the banks and for ‘home owners’ who stopped paying years ago during the scamdemic. The data seems to show that there is already a metric crap ton of property that needs to be liquidated. The coming crap storm will only add significantly more. How long can we pretend that everything is fine? Currently this topic seems off limits for public discourse. Who is going to be the runway foaming protagonist this time? Perhaps they will trot out a large hairy man in heels and a skirt to advocate for housing debt forgiveness this time. Problem solved?

  2. ‘Sellers need to be very realistic about the timeframe it’s going take to sell their home, that many offers are going be coming in with requests for closing cost assistance, with requests for repairs…The days of getting offers over asking price, waiving appraisals, those days are well over now’

    Tina is a short sighted perma bear who has no idea of how shacks work. Am I the only one left who believes in the American Dream? Even Logan at shackwire is a gotdam perma bear! That’s savagely unhealthy I tells ya!

  3. He came across as a godly person.’ Birckhead said she wired $46,504 to Sowash in April for an 8-foot-by-28 foot home that she was going to put on their land. She said she was told it would be delivered in July. ‘But here we are, and there’s no home’

    You got schlonged Lori.

    ‘Bender said she questioned Ben Kee Construction and heard, ‘No, no, no, don’t worry about that. Don’t worry about that. We’ve got this covered.’ Two weeks later, she got a letter from the supplier informing her that unless she paid $16,000 for materials a second time, she could face foreclosure’

    You got schlonged too Pam

  4. ‘I think everyone has to get used to the fact that the era of low interest rates of one or two per cent is over’

    Wa happened to my pivot?

    1. Mortgage demand drops to a 25-year low, as interest rates climb
      Published Wed, Oct 19 2022 7:00 AM EDT
      Updated Wed, Oct 19 2022 1:39 PM EDT
      Diana Olick

      Key Points
      – Demand for mortgages to buy a home and to refinance fell again, as interest rates kept rising.
      – Mortgage demand hit its lowest level since 1997, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
      – The number of borrowers who can benefit from refinancing is at a record low.

    2. The typical U.S. household is spending $445 more a month due to inflation. Here’s how to reduce the bite
      Published Wed, Oct 19 2022 10:45 AM EDT
      Updated Wed, Oct 19 2022 11:54 AM EDT
      Greg Iacurci

      Key Points
      – Consumer prices rose 8.2% in the last year, according to a September inflation report issued Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s near the highest levels since the early 1980s.
      – Given that inflation rate, consumers are paying $445 more per month to buy the same goods and services as they did a year ago, according to Moody’s Analytics.
      – There aren’t a lot of great options to save money, financial advisors said. They largely include buying cheaper alternatives when possible and trimming discretionary expenses.

    3. “Wa happened to my pivot?”

      How bout it Pividiots, DebtDonkeys, Housing Hens, Degenerate Gamblers?

      1. The entire equities market has been waiting on a Powell pivot too. Problem is, we have a “strong” (arguable) job market and rising CPI. Powell isn’t going to pivot until we see 2008-ish conditions, and we aren’t there yet.

    1. I have to agree with the Blind Squid…

      A gathering of imbeciles to confront a moron ??? Where’s the pitchforks torches and scythe’s ???


    1. It’s been 35 years since the epic Black Monday crash. What have investors learned?
      By Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business
      Published 5:48 AM EDT, Wed October 19, 2022
      See how CNN covered Black Monday on Wall Street 35 years ago
      02:16 – Source: CNN

      New York CNN Business —

      October 19, 1987. A brief but violent stock market crash. Can it happen again?

      Probably not. The Dow plummeted 22.6% on that day, a date that has since been immortalized as Black Monday. To put that into context, a drop of that magnitude would be a nearly 7,000 point slide based on the Dow’s current levels. In 1987, that was about a 508-point drop.

      What’s happening: Rules have been put into place since 1987, so-called circuit breakers and trading halts, that would prevent a plunge of that magnitude from ever occurring again.

      There have been some mini so-called flash crashes in stocks since then but nothing even remotely close to the type of alarm seen on that Black Monday, when the inflation rate was 3.6%, George Bush (the first one) was the Republican nominee for president and a gallon of gas cost 89 cents.

      It was clearly a panic-induced sell-off. CNN Business spoke to Jon Hirtle, a broker at Goldman Sachs in 1987, to get his recollections about Black Monday.

  5. A reader sent these in:


    Used car prices are now down 10% YoY. The *largest* YoY decline ever recorded. And Nov-Dec will likely be even worse.

    Liz Ann Sonders

    Thus far in October, used car prices per ⁦@Manheim_US
    ⁩ are tanking; year/year rate (-10.4%) is worst since GFC; max drawdown during pandemic (-9.1%) has now been surpassed.

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    The Lone Scar State? Warren Buffet “It’s far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than a fair business at a wonderful price.”

    “MLS data shows 3MMA for active listings statewide increased in Sept to 24,277 vs 22,073 in Aug.”

    They withdraw because holding an active license costs money, and the lack of activity (commissions) means it’s not worth keeping it active. (Some costs associated: monthly broker fees, association dues, MLS dues, lock box subscriptions, errors and omissions insurance, etc).

    Lance Lambert

    The Las Vegas housing market is seeing around 30 Realtor withdrawals per day.

    John Wake

    “A national collapse in home values is likely.”

    Saving this for later

    Can you show me the incredible response on the chart?

    Over the past 43 years, real wages for Americans are up 6.9%. Not 6.9% per year. 6.9%. Forty-three years.

    Last 3 email subject lines from MF brokers, listings are across the country:

    Oh how quickly things changed.

    savage (cuz it’s true)

    Behold in all it’s glory
    1Y 👀 4.6%

    Just a thought: Why buy real estate as an investor when you can earn 4.5% in a 6 month t-bill? Way less work for about the same return.


    “It’s gonna be at least until late in 2023, maybe 2024 before the long-awaited pivot occurs,” market strategist Dennis Gartman said of the Fed’s rate policy

    Looks like the Austin housing market is starting to figure how to sell homes, or at least, the Austin builders are.



    I note that Fannie threw in the towel today and are now forecasting house price declines in 2023.

    Friends of mine telling me delinquencies are surging across Europe and so is the anger. No bueno.

    Social unrest is brewing across Europe. – WSJ

    Europe’s Misery index (unemployment rate + inflation rate). All time highs.

    I think there’s a bubble …… 🚨 🚨 🚨

    High debt to income is the new subprime.

    1. “It’s far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than a fair business at a wonderful price.”

      Gonna steal this one. Thanks!

    2. Used car prices are now down 10% YoY.

      They are still absurdly expensive. A ten year old car should cost 20-30% of what it cost new, not 70-80%.

      1. So true. We are a one car family. We got in a car wreck in January (some dude ran a red light in front of us). My 2015 Kia was totaled. I was really happy with that car- it was a good car that I bought used and it was completely paid off. We could have probably kept it going for at least another ten years.

        We had to buy a new car and I could not believe the price of cars.

        1. some dude ran a red light in front of us

          I have come to expect all drivers to be idiots. If someone tailgates me, I get out of the way and let them pass. When the light turns green I verify that cross traffic is indeed stopping. I never assume others will yield me the right of way. I expect people to cut me off.

          1. “If someone tailgates me, I get out of the way and let them pass.”

            Good idea…. Especially when pulling wheelies.

          2. Whatever stupid things people could do, will happen.

            One day I was driving through Longmont and some dude in a rice burner was tailgating me. I got out of the way and he passed me. About 30 seconds later he rear ended someone in a minivan.

      2. Back a month ago or so I priced a new dirtymax…. it was within $500 of the exact truck I bought in 2016.

    1. I was discussing this with a friend today. 2008 and 2009 were good years for Dems, with a popular President and still-lucid VP, and only Obamacare as a “blunder” (lots of people still think it’s ok). And yet Obama still lost 60 seats in the House. This time we have a demented President with a long string of multiple blunders in all quarters of the government — financial, social identity, foreign policy. How can the Dems *not* lose at least 30+ seats in the house?

      If the Republicans take the House, don’t worry, I think we’re still going to have a J6 Committee, only this time with the gloves off. Don’t get too attached to that Italian villa, Nancy.

  6. With wokeness all the rage in western militaries and patriotic officers viewed as “threats” to be driven out, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that treasonous officers are selling out to adversaries like China.

    Investigation into claims China’s military is headhunting Aussie war pilots

    Former Australian Defence Force pilots are said to have been offered up to $1 million to join China’s military, prompting the Government to investigate.

    1. I’m sure Oz also tells its white military members that they are the problem, and are fascists, racists, homophobes, etc. and they deserve Australia’s contempt and hatred.

      And then they wonder how this can happen.

    1. Edit: to the right of.

      Stealing 435 House races and 30+ Senate won’t be east, but these globalists will try.

      1. That’s not how it works. ~400 seats are already decided, they only need to cheat on handful of races. Same goes for senate. With guaranteed cheating from dems, it’s a lot closer than anyone thinks.

        1. It’s going to be hard to cheat in those swing districts. Even in 2020, the mules were concentrated in deep blue urban areas of purple states and TDS united them and made them fearless. This time they are more isolated, and they know they are being watched. They were motivated enough to do what they did against Trump, but would they risk being caught for, say, John Fetterman? Or Mark Kelly in AZ? Or new candidates running in new seats or open seats? I don’t see it.

      1. And if I read correctly, Britain is resuming the ban on fracking.

        I think it’s pretty clear that the Deep State has the UK completely under control. Brits will freeze this winter while believing that they are “saving the world”. You just can’t fix stupid.

        I saw an interview with Nigel Farage, where he was asked if he would lead a crusade to save Britain. He replied that he can’t do it alone, he needs help. While he didn’t say it, he understands that he is up against the Deep State and if he takes them on alone they will destroy him.

        They are are for all practical purposes in 1984. And they are disarmed, while the Deep State has all the guns. Are we aren’t too far behind.

      2. Rule no. 1 of taking the Prime Minister job: Don’t start a financial crisis immediately after starting your term.

        1. The Financial Times
          Markets Briefing Sovereign bonds
          Gilts shrug off Liz Truss’s resignation
          Equity markets subdued as investors scrutinise corporate earnings for inflation pressures
          British prime minister Liz Truss announcing her resignation outside 10 Downing Street
          British prime minister Liz Truss announces her resignation outside 10 Downing Street on Thursday
          Ian Johnston and Tommy Stubbington 2 hours ago

          UK government bonds largely shrugged off the resignation of British prime minister Liz Truss on Thursday, as investors said her departure is likely to cement a shift to more fiscally-responsible policies but remained wary of a period of political instability that is likely to follow.

          Gilts had rallied in the run-up to Truss’s announcement, but were little-changed by the confirmation that she is quitting after just 44 days in office.

          The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt was 0.04 percentage points lower at 3.83 per cent by mid-afternoon in London trading, after rising as high at 4.02 per cent earlier in the session. The 30-year yield slipped 0.11 percentage points to 3.88 per cent, reflecting a rise in price.

          Sterling extended early gains against the dollar to trade 0.9 per cent higher on the day at $1.131.

          “This isn’t really a game changer for the market,” said Lyn Graham-Taylor, a rates strategist at Rabobank. “The big thing for gilts was the fiscal U-turn, but that’s already in the price, and the market probably assumes that [former chancellor Rishi] Sunak comes in and isn’t going to change things on that front.

          “But then there are still plenty of questions about the internal politics of the Tory party and whether we end up with a general election. So I don’t think you’re likely to see the discount disappear from gilts.”

        2. The Financial Times
          UK politics & policy
          Turmoil surrounds final hours of Liz Truss’s premiership
          Chaotic UK leadership concludes after rebel Tory MPs deal terminal blow
          Montage of Liz Truss and Sir Graham Brady
          Liz Truss, left, met Sir Graham Brady, right, chair of the Tory backbench 1922 committee, who delivered the message from Tory MPs that ultimately sealed her demise
          Jim Pickard and George Parker in London 6 hours ago

          Liz Truss woke on Thursday morning to the realisation that her mayfly premiership had only hours left to run.

          In just six weeks, Truss cratered the Conservative party’s poll ratings and unleashed turmoil on financial markets. She was forced into a U-turn on her “mini” Budget involving £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, sacked her chancellor and ousted her home secretary.

          Yet on Wednesday she appeared determined to fight on. Under attack from Labour MPs during prime minister’s questions in the House of Commons, she insisted she was “a fighter not a quitter”.

          But the seeds of her downfall were sown that day, one of the most chaotic 24 hours in modern British politics.

          At 4pm on Wednesday, at a secret location in the Commons, more than a dozen officers of the Tory backbench 1922 committee met to discuss the prime minister’s fate. “Almost everyone said she had to go,” said one attendee.

          “The only question was the timing. Some people thought she should stay on until after October 31 for the Budget, but hardly anyone thought she could survive after that,” they added.

  7. Mass Formation Psychosis.

    The Atlantic — It’s Gotten Awkward to Wear a Mask (10/19/2022):

    “Last week, just a couple of hours into a house-sitting stint in Massachusetts for my cousin and his wife, I received from them a flummoxed text: “Dude,” it read. “We are the only people in masks.” Upon arriving at the airport, and then boarding their flight, they’d been shocked to find themselves virtually alone in wearing masks of any kind. On another trip they’d taken to Hawaii in July, they told me, long after coverings became optional on planes, some 80 percent of people on their flight had been masking up. This time, though? “We are like the odd man out.”

    Being outside of the current norm “does not bother us,” my cousin’s wife said in another text, despite stares from some of the other passengers. But the about-face my cousin and his wife identified does mark a new phase of the pandemic, even if it’s one that has long been playing out in fits and starts. Months after the vanishing of most masking mandates, mask wearing has been relegated to a sharply shrinking sector of society. It has become, once again, a peculiar thing to do.

    “It feels like it’s something that now needs an explanation,” Fiona Lowenstein, a journalist and COVID long-hauler based in Los Angeles, told me. “It’s like showing up in a weird hat, and you have to explain why you’re wearing it.”

    The vaccines destroyed your immune system, Fiona.

    And you’re a hypochondriac freakshow.

      1. It’s getting awkward in my family, as two siblings (including me) wear masks only when necessary to comply, and two others wear them voluntarily out of fear and precaution.

        1. Especially sad given the fact that these blue masks do not protect. I wouldn’t wear them to do simple woodworking. They do not keep sawdust out, much less germs.

          1. They’re absolutely useless for silica dust when grinding concrete per EPA’s silica rule. Gotta have full respirator, water and vacuum to grind now. Because of that issue alone, construction labor knew the masks were BS from the get go.

          2. These blue masks do not protect again airborne COVID, but they do offer some protection against colds and flu. Those diseases are spread by fingers touching a surface and then your face. A blue mask can stop fingers. In a couple weeks I’ll be flying for the first time in years, and I’ll probably wear a blue mask mostly to protect against colds and flu.

          3. “In a couple weeks I’ll be flying for the first time in years, and I’ll probably wear a blue mask mostly to protect against colds and flu.”

            If I fly somewhere these days it is for good reason, and I don’t want to catch a cold, get sick and interrupt any planned activities. Hence, I’ll be wearing a real 3M 95 mask from airport entry to airport exit.

          4. A long time ago, i.e. just before COVID pandemic madness, it was common knowledge that medical masks are worn to protect other people from your exhaled bad things, not for your protection. Somewhere along the line this idea morphed in to thinking a mask was protecting the wearer. What changed? (other than political thinking)

          5. What changed?

            It was what was available (sort of). If you couldn’t get a 95 mask you were allowed to use a T-shirt. Something had to be prescribed. People need Leadership!

          6. A blue mask can stop fingers.

            Ten years of changing diapers trains one not to touch nose and lips before washing hands.

            Q. How can you tell the other guy in the washroom is a Chemical Engineer/Technician?

            A. They wash their hands first.

        2. only when necessary to comply

          Just out of curiosity, just where and when is it compulsory to wear a mask in the people’s republic?

          1. I just went to another red cross blood draw yesterday, and it was mask territory. I had my own 3m N95 with me.

      2. Doesn’t matter what the overwhelming evidence and data shows, the Health Agencies are going to continue with the fake vaccine scam , continue with mandates, and continue with the Emergency Declarations of Pandemics.
        I don’t know if they are trying to scare us or piss us off about the gain of function in Boston that the rats had a 80% death rate by this bio weapon.
        Are they trying to set up a false flag that terrorist broke into the lab and leaked it, or any number of possible stories to get a new even more scary narrative going.
        It was odd ,to say the least ,that this Boston research gain of function story came out, while we have been under impression that this type of research is illegal in US. Same Fauci funding, like with the China lab.
        They have low number compliance with the boosters and the new booster now. Only 16% of older people are going for it.
        I think the pressure is mounting on the massive amount of death and injury data , caused by the vaccine, so what better way to hide it than to blame it on a new variant, or a terrorist leak of a more deadly strain.
        I on!y say this because Bill Gates loves to propose terrorist release of bio weapons in airports or something like that.
        I think the Covid Pandemic was one big fake job, using fake PCR testing, and killer protocols in hospital to up the numbers, while the public was denied real cures like Ivermectin.
        They wanted mass vaccination of the globe, while they censored Drs and Scientists that disputed the vaccine campaign, or any of their response to a alledged global pandemic called Covid.
        And look at the Climate Change narrative, that is creating the potential for mass famine and freezing and collapse of functioning altogether.
        How about Bill Gates wanting to block out the Sun, kill a bunch of mosquitoes, and pushing bugs for food, as he buys up farm land and wants to monopolize food production .
        Humanity has to take back the World from this power group that does not have good intent for the populations of the World.

        1. this Boston research gain of function story came out,

          Odd that this sensational story died in the news after only one day. It sorta looks like the Daily Mail was pretty stupid in interpreting the published study report out of BU, or intentionally misrepresented it to get a flamer story.

          Link to follow.

          1. Thanks for the link. .
            But, did the world rage over the article cause a denial to what they were doing?
            In the age of fake news and false narratives
            who knows really. .

          2. rage over the article cause a denial

            That would require a time machine? They had already published what the Daily Mail was “reporting” on.

    1. “a new phase of the pandemic”

      Anyone who thinks we are still in a pandemic should just go live in a cave.

    2. ‘It feels like it’s something that now needs an explanation,’ Fiona Lowenstein, a journalist and COVID long-hauler based in Los Angeles, told me. ‘It’s like showing up in a weird hat, and you have to explain why you’re wearing it’

      That’s some funny stuff right there.

        1. I don’t see how you could know that. Of course you only said you think that. A long recovery from anything is frustrating as hell, and we’re not sure the advice we’re given has any basis in knowledge.

  8. JPMorgan, Goldman face probe by 19 states over ESG investing

    By Reuters
    October 19, 2022

    Nineteen state attorneys general including from Arizona and Texas have sent civil investigative demands to the country’s six biggest banks, alleging their environmental, social, and governance-related practices hurt the American energy industry.

    Republican-led states have ramped up attacks on what they view as a woke bias at financial companies. Asset manager BlackRock and investment research firm Morningstar have also been targeted in recent months.

    The attorneys general are seeking documents from the banks about their involvement with the United Nations’ Net-Zero Banking Alliance, according to their statements on Wednesday.

    The NZBA is a group of banks “committed to aligning their lending and investment portfolios with net-zero emissions by 2050,” according to the UN website.

  9. Ukraine’s national energy company has urged citizens to “charge everything” by 07:00 (04:00 GMT) Thursday because of expected power cuts caused by Russian missile strikes.

    Energy plants were hit by Russian missiles again on Wednesday – part of a wave of such strikes since 10 October.

    Outages of up to four hours at a time will affect the whole country on Thursday, grid operator Ukrenergo said.

    It comes as Russia declares martial law in areas of Ukraine it has annexed.

    Heightened security measures have also come into force in Russia – mostly areas along the Ukraine border.

    In preparation for the blackouts, Ukrenergo has appealed to Ukrainians to stock up with water and ensure they have “warm socks and blankets and hugs for family and friends”.

    Phones, power banks, torches and batteries need to be charged, it urged.

    As much as 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been seriously damaged, according to Oleksandr Kharchenko, an adviser to the energy minister.

    1. That’s unpossible! I have been told that Ukraine has been on the verge of total victory since the war began.

      As much as 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been seriously damaged

      So, almost half their power is gone, and winter has just about arrived. Yeah, Russia should be surrendering any day now.

    2. In 3rd world countries munitions mostly kick-up some dust when combatants are targeted. However, 1st and 2nd world countries are target rich environments of expensive transportation and utility infrastructure. You can’t protect everything.

      1. This is the greater priority on the earth today, is to stop the vaccine fraudsters from this mass genocide and injury over these fake vaccines.
        Second to that, the fake Climate Change narrative has to be stopped before it becomes one of their mass destruction weapons.
        The outrageous attack on children in schools regarding transgender grooming, and racism against whites, and false science brainwashing has to stop.
        Out of control rise in crime has to be addressed, as this sort of mayhem is breaking down society.
        Wars, collapse of rigged economic systems, inflation, collapse of supply lines, and a whole host of problems has to be solved in a sane manner, not the unelected International Globalists , WEF, Money Changers and usual suspects like Bill Gates, Rothschilds and Organizations involved in One World Order/ Great Reset take over.
        I’m really offended by this push to eat bugs , and all the other outrageous agendas these humanity haters have.
        I forgot about open borders, its outrageous and its a invasion and weapon of mass destruction also.

    1. Something that bothered me about the vaccine approval process is that the FDA panelists never had the option to approve these vaccines for prescription only. That is, make them available, but only after a doctor makes a risk/benefit decision for the individual patient. You know, like almost all new drugs. Instead, the FDA panel had to go straight to OTC, which schools can then convert into a mass mandate.

  10. I won’t post the accompanying video here but I will add my voice to those calling for jail time for ALL adults who attended this child abusing abomination.

    Texas AG Urges Prosecution Over “Grotesque” ‘Child-Friendly’ Drag Show Near Dallas

    by Zero Hedge
    October 20th 2022, 4:28 am

    Following what’s probably the single most horrifying and egregious example of a so-called “child friendly drag show” that we’ve ever seen, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has called for legal prosecution against those involved.

    The event took place on Saturday in Plano, Texas – a large suburb of Dallas (of all places) – and involved a drag performer simulating a sex act in front of children at what the venue dubbed an “all ages” show.

  11. I would have thought this would have brought the “my body my choice” crowd out with torches and pitchforks long before this.

    VIDEO: North Carolina High Schools Cancel Volleyball Games Against One School After Transgender Player Injures Girl

    19 Oct 2022

    High schools in Cherokee County, North Carolina, have canceled volleyball matches against one school after a transgender athlete (a boy living as a girl) injured another girl at a recent game.

    The injury occurred last month when a Highlands High volleyball player made a spike and smashed a Hiwassee Dam High player in the forehead, causing severe head injuries.

    1. I would have thought this would have brought the “my body my choice” crowd out with torches and pitchforks long before this.

      People are afraid to speak up. They know that if they do the woke crowd might show up at their workplace and demand their head on a platter, and that their employer might fire them to get rid of the crowd.

      They hope that if they are quiet they will be left alone. Of course, we know that isn’t how it works, as “silence equals violence”. I wonder how long until men become blacklisted (unemployable) for refusing to date a dude wearing a dress.

    2. Since we all must acknowledge that women are just as strong and fast as men, I’m waiting for a story where a girl living as a boy plays high school football and starts handing out beatdowns. I’m sure that story will be coming up any day now. Any. day. now.

  12. Covid vaccine approved to be used as an admission requirement for school.

    See, here’s the thing. I don’t really care how anyone feels about any particular vaccination. If you want to have it or you want to give it to your kid that is your problem.

    But once one says the government can say one has to give their child this vaccine or that vaccine as a requirement for school one has opened up Pandora’s box. If the government can require and MMR or a Polio vaccine for school admission then they can require Covid. Either get rid of the whole vaccine schedule (and the CDC to boot), or shut up about how horrible it is that the government is putting Covid on the list.


    1. FWIW, some vaccines have a decades long track record. The Covid jabs are still officially classified as experimental, yet are now mandatory for school.

      And for many people “no jab, no job” is still in effect. And millions will still willingly, even eagerly, roll up their sleeves.

      1. Why does the efficacy of a vaccine matter? The point is governmental vs. individual rights. One of the has priority and the other does not. It was only a matter of time before the logical conclusion was reached; if the government can say one has to take one thing then they can say one has to take another thing. That’s just the way it works.

        1. Just saying that there was precedent for real vaccines vs. experimental vaccines. There has never been a mandate for an experimental vaccine until now.

          Personally, I prefer no mandates.

          1. The evidence shows that the safety and effectiveness of all pharmaceuticals was compromised by conflict of interest, corruption , rigged trials, compromised science, etc, therefore all vaccines need to be investigated , especially this expiermental one that we all know doesn’t prevent Covid.

          2. real vaccines vs. experimental vaccines.

            A key part of the “vaccine” hoax was that the shot prevented contraction or transmission of the Couff. That was a blatant lie and now admittedly false. So it’s not in any way a real vaccine. You probably won’t win the personal rights argument, but the “not a vaccine” point should not be overlooked.

            Dr. Fraudci and a bunch of others should at the very least go to jail.

          3. A key part of the “vaccine” hoax was that the shot prevented contraction or transmission of the Couff. That was a blatant lie and now admittedly false.

            It was not a lie for the Alpha variant. Astra-Zeneca calculated a 75% reduction in transmission for Alpha. But with Delta they stopped calculating. The minute Fauxi got up there and said “Delta people can still spread,” they should have dropped all mandates. Masks prevent spread more than the shots.

            Here’s why:

            Important quick lesson I got from one of John Campbell’s videos. Basically, once antibodies fade out of the blood, the B/T memory cells take over. You can still fight off a disease, but it takes the body a few days to manufacture and deliver new antibodies.

            Most viruses take some days to incubate and multiply enough to make a person infectious. For example, measles incubates 14 days. Our immune system can make antibodies so fast that we wipe out the virus before we become infectious, even before we get symptoms.
            Alpha was a slow incubator, so the COVID vaccine could wipe out most of Alpha before the person became infectious enough to spread. So, the shots DID prevent spread and symptoms of Alpha. Delta was a faster incubator and didn’t match the vaccine as well. So, logically, the vaccine didn’t prevent spread or symptoms of Delta as well.

            Omicron is the worst. Omicron incubates and is contagious within TWO DAYS. *NO* T/B cell immune system can act fast enough to cut Omicron off that quickly, not even one tailored to Omicron. So, once the antibodies are gone, Omicron is quick enough to spread and cause symptoms. The vaccines now have NO public health value except to save individual lives and resources by keeping people out of hospitals.

            The only way to stop spread would be to develop a new vaccine platform — likely nasal — which maintains continual fast-acting antibodies.

        2. “Why does the efficacy of a vaccine matter? The point is governmental vs. individual rights.”

          To participate in society we sacrifice individual freedoms, e.g., you wouldn’t want your children in school with boat people’s kids who have tuberculosis or whooping cough would you?

          1. No, that’s why sick kids are made to stay home.

            Your argument is no different from the argument made for forced masking and forced Covid vaccination.

    2. Depending on who you work for your mandated to take the jab, or lose your job.
      Now your children in public schools mandated to take that fake Covid vaccine , or you can’t attend school.
      So, you have to home school, or get some kind of religious exemption in order to protect your child from being killed, injured, poisoned or heart injured by these jabs.
      Outrageous way of getting the camels nose under the tent, by making the dangerous vaccine a requirement to go to school.
      I wonder if that means the children have to take every booster they come up with also.
      But no doubt they will enact other mandates like you have to be vaccinated to get medical care, or whatever else they dream up.
      Lets face it, they want forced compliance to taking the jab , unless the High Court or some Judiciary prohibits it.
      Kids don’t need this vaccine, adults don’t need this vaccine, and grandma doesn’t need this fake vaccine either.

      1. My husband’s company made a jab requirement. He managed to get an “accommodation.” They aren’t even called exemptions anymore. You’re basically a disabled person who needs an accommodation.

        1. My employer was under the Federal Contractor’s mandate until it was overturned last year. There hasn’t been a peep about a mandate at work since then.

    3. FL Surgeon General: Florida Children Will Not Be Required to Get the Coronavirus Jab, Regardless of CDC

      20 Oct 2022

      Children in Florida will not be required to get the coronavirus jab, even if the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends making it part of a child’s regular vaccine routine, Florida Surgeon general Joseph Ladapo said on Wednesday.

      “Regardless of what @CDCgov votes tomorrow on whether COVID-19 vax are added to routine child immunizations – nothing changes in FL,” the official assured.

      Joseph A. Ladapo, MD, PhD
      Regardless of what @CDCgov votes tomorrow on whether COVID-19 vax are added to routine child immunizations – nothing changes in FL.

      Thanks to @GovRonDeSantis, COVID mandates are NOT allowed in FL, NOT pushed into schools, & I continue to recommend against them for healthy kids.
      5:13 PM · Oct 18, 2022
      See the latest COVID-19 information on Twitter

    1. A Very Globalist Coup

      Even Nigel Farage seems to be afraid of the Globalists and their Deep State minions.

        1. There’s talk of BoJo returning to 10 Downing St.

          The Globalists are saying “Britain is ours, and don’t you forget it.” I also suspect that if there is a red wave on Nov 8 we will see a return of the mostly peaceful protests. If you need something from Target, you might not want to wait.

          I hate to say it, but I fear that the only way out is via a civil war.

  13. ‘Appraisers aren’t making a guess that a $300M mall is now worth $100M, even though everybody knows that’

    Sound lending!

  14. Headline from 20 Oct 2032…


    Headline from 20 Oct 2022…

    The Green Tax: Electric Vehicle Owners Shocked by Battery Replacements Costing $20,000+

    20 Oct 2022

    Canadian Electric vehicle (EV) owners have been shocked to find out that battery replacements for their cars, especially older models, tops $20,000. One EV owner shared his experience, saying: “At the dealership, he looked it up online and said you’re not going to like this,” before delivering a bill of $15,000 plus labor and taxes.

    “I don’t understand why they make the battery so expensive when you have to change it,” Phyllis Lau, who owns a 2018 KIA Soul all-electric vehicle, told CTV News Toronto.

    Ken Edwardson, another Canadian EV owner, purchased a used 2011 Lincoln MKZ hybrid four years ago, and was shocked to learn that replacing the battery, also after labor and taxes, comes to about $20,000.

    Earlier this month, a man who bought a brand new $115,000 Hummer electric truck was left stranded in the middle of the road — and the vehicle had less than 250 miles on it.

    Similarly, a YouTuber recently demonstrated that buyers of GMC’s new electric Hummer better clear their calendars if the truck is running low on battery charge, as the $80,000+ EV will take over four days to fully charge when it is plugged in to a regular house outlet. Moreover, a special 240-volt charger still takes a full day to charge the vehicle.

    Another YouTuber, with 1.4 million followers, conducted an experiment with his brand new 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup. The man tried to tow a 1930 Ford Model A truck with the EV, but it ended in “a complete and total disaster.”

    1. “’I don’t understand why they make the battery so expensive when you have to change it,’ Phyllis Lau, who owns a 2018 KIA Soul all-electric vehicle, told CTV News Toronto.”

      Bahahahahahahahahaha … it’s because these pukes have you where they want you, dummy.

      1. How much gas could EVangelists have bought with the premium for the vehicles along with charging and battery replacement costs?

    2. he $80,000+ EV will take over four days to fully charge when it is plugged in to a regular house outlet.

      I’m reminded of the guy who used to post here, the Te$$la fanatic with the remote apartment tower to manage. I think his handle was One Idiot Against Many or some such. He charged his battery with an extension cord via his rental’s ground floor window.

      Only the mentally deficient would run a high load off a standard wall outlet. Or an EV enthusiast. But I repeat myself.

    1. Too bad the Uzi fires from an open bolt. When the trigger is depressed the heavy bolt travels forward, feeds a round from the magazine into the chamber before locking with a thug before firing the round. That “thug” ruins the aim. The German HK-416 is a much better “gas operated” carbine, IMHO.

      1. I slide the bolt forward gently with my hand, take a deep breath, partially exhale and stop breathing. Then I gently squeeze the trigger and fire. Once.

        Guess it might take me a while to carve a pumpkin.

        1. Thats the method. Works for the kill and on the paper red star at the county fair…… one BB at a time.

    1. The Economist
      Leaders | The housing horror show
      A global house-price slump is coming
      It won’t blow up the financial system, but it will be scary
      Oct 20th 2022

      Over the past decade owning a house has meant easy money. Prices rose reliably for years and then went bizarrely ballistic in the pandemic. Yet today if your wealth is tied up in bricks and mortar it is time to get nervous. House prices are now falling in nine rich economies. The drops in America are small so far, but in the wildest markets they are already dramatic. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely—even estate agents are gloomy. Although this will not detonate global banks as in 2007-09, it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.

      The cause of the crunch is soaring interest rates: in America prospective buyers have been watching, horrified, as the 30-year mortgage rate has hit 6.92%, over twice the level of a year ago and the highest since April 2002. The pandemic mini-bubble was fuelled by rate cuts, stimulus cash and a hunt for more suburban space. Now most of that is going into reverse. Take, for example, someone who a year ago could afford to put $1,800 a month towards a 30-year mortgage. Back then they could have borrowed $420,000. Today the payment is enough for a loan of $280,000: 33% less. From Stockholm to Sydney the buying power of borrowers is collapsing. That makes it harder for new buyers to afford homes, depressing demand, and can squeeze the finances of existing owners who, if they are unlucky, may be forced to sell.

      1. “It won’t blow up the financial system, but it will be scary”

        Take it from the people who didn’t presict the global housing slump that we have been documenting for months.

        Whistling while strolling past the graveyard is a popular Halloween activity.

      2. “Back then they could have borrowed $420,000. Today the payment is enough for a loan of $280,000: 33% less.”

        Nice to see The Economist writers have caught on to mortgage finance maths.

      3. Mortgage rates hit fresh 14-year highs
        22 hours ago
        Woman looking in estate agent windowImage source, Getty Images
        By Michael Race
        Business reporter, BBC News

        Mortgage rates continued to climb on Thursday, hitting their highest levels in 14 years, figures show.

        Average two-and five-year fixed rates jumped to 6.65% and 6.51% respectively as UK borrowing costs remained elevated amid continued economic uncertainty.

        One analyst warned mortgages were a “long way” from beginning to come down.

        It comes as the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates again in November in a bid to curb inflation.

        Consumer prices rose by 10.1% in the year to September, returning to a 40-year high as food, energy and transport costs climbed.

      4. Newsletter
        Daily Rates
        Mortgage Interest Rates Today, October 21, 2022 | Rates Moved up
        Jason Stauffer
        October 21, 2022 | 6 Min Read

        Mortgage rates have had a dramatic 2022.

        After a few years of rates near record lows – around 3% or lower for a 30-year fixed rate – averages have roughly doubled since January. Inflation is the main reason why, and rates have escalated as the Federal Reserve has ratcheted up its interest rate to tame those high prices.

        Higher mortgage rates have cooled off a piping hot housing market. Home prices have started to dip since the start of summer, and are falling faster in some communities. Unfortunately those higher rates also mean monthly payments are likely to be significantly higher. Run today’s mortgage rates through a calculator and give yourself plenty of breathing room, as rates are changing quickly.

        Let’s look at today’s rates and what they mean for borrowers.

        Looking at today’s mortgage rates a few notable rates saw growth. The averages for both 30-year fixed and 15-year fixed mortgages both crept higher. For variable rates, the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) also trended upward.

        The averages for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, and 5/1 ARMs are:

        – The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage currently sits at 7.32%
        – The average 20-year fixed-rate mortgage currently sits at 7.35%
        – 15-year fixed mortgage rates are averaging 6.46%
        – Today’s 10-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.65%
        – The average 5/1 adjustable mortgage currently sits at 5.46%

        Mortgage Rate Trends: Why Are Mortgage Rates Changing So Fast?

        Inflation has been high this year, with the consumer price index at 8.2% year-over-year in September. That was down from August’s 8.3%, but still higher than expected. High inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rate several times this year, with the latest by 0.75 percentage points in September.

        Those factors have both pushed mortgage rates higher this year, from around 3.3% in January to more than 6% at the end of September.

        “Inflation is absolutely in the driver’s seat, particularly as it pertains to mortgage rates. Until we get some sustained evidence that inflation is beginning to recede, the upward pressure on mortgage rates will remain,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation.

        1. “The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage currently sits at 7.32%”

          Real mortgage rates are still negative, given 8+ percent inflation, but may soon enter positive territory if rates continue with their recent rapid rate of ascent.

    1. The Financial Times
      3 hours ago 20:19
      Japanese inflation rises to 8-year high on weak yen and energy costs
      Eri Sugiura in Tokyo

      Inflation in Japan rate rose to an eight-year-high of 3 per cent in September, though the country’s central bank is unlikely to reverse its loose monetary policy.

      Official statistics released on Friday showed that both the consumer price index and core inflation, which excludes volatile food prices, rose 3 per cent in September from a year ago. Excluding the impact of tax rises in 2014, it was the fastest increase since August 1991. The reading was in line with market expectations.

      Prices have risen on the back of the weakening of the yen, which on Thursday slipped past ¥150 against the dollar for the first time in 32 years, and rising costs of imported food and energy. September marked the sixth consecutive month that core CPI exceeded the longstanding target of 2 per cent set by the Bank of Japan.

      But the central bank has been reluctant to increase interest rates after struggling for years to lift the country’s economy out of a deflationary cycle. There has been no pass through from higher prices to increased wages and the BoJ has said underlying demand in the economy is still weak.

      The widening gap between the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy and tightening by most other big central banks has caused the yen to lose more than 23 per cent of its value against the dollar year-to-date, despite a $20bn intervention by Japanese authorities in September.

    2. How many more chemotherapy doses will the Fed need to deliver in order to take out the cancerous inflation that is laying waste to societal wealth?

      1. The Financial Times
        Federal Reserve
        Investors now expect Fed to raise rates to 5% next year
        Traders have priced in May 2023 increase as central bank continues to tackle high inflation
        Flags blow in the wind atop the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC
        Expectations had grown after September’s consumer price index report showed an alarming acceleration in monthly price pressures
        Colby Smith in Washington and Kate Duguid in New York 12 hours ago

        Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 5 per cent next year, suggesting that it will need to hammer the brakes on the economy harder than expected to tackle high inflation.

        According to futures markets that track the federal funds rate, traders have fully priced in the benchmark policy rate reaching 5 per cent in May 2023, up from 4.6 per cent before the latest inflation data released late last week.

        Expectations had ratcheted up after September’s consumer price index report showed an alarming acceleration in monthly price pressures across a broad array of everyday items and services.

        The larger-than-expected jump in consumer price growth all but guaranteed the Fed would yet again opt for an aggressive interest rate increase at its next policy meeting in early November and deliver a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate rise, the odds of which have been fully priced into the market.

        That would bring the federal funds rate to a new target range of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent, significantly higher than the near-zero level registered as recently as March and closing in on the 4.6 per cent peak policy rate pencilled in by most officials in September.

        The elevated inflation figures, coupled with additional signs pointing to a resilient labour market, also fanned fears that the 0.75 percentage point pace would be extended to December, with another half-point rise expected for February.

        “Can markets push it higher? Definitely,” said Edward Al-Hussainy, a senior interest rate strategist at Columbia Threadneedle. “But we’re also at a stage where the Fed may be at risk of not being able to meet market expectations,” he added, citing financial stability concerns.

        To slow the pace of its interest rate increases, Fed officials have said they need to see signs that inflation is beginning to ease on a monthly basis. To consider a pause in the historically aggressive tightening campaign, the central bank has said it needs to see substantive evidence that “core” inflation — which strips out volatile items such as food and energy — is falling back towards the longstanding 2 per cent target.

        The plan, officials have said, is to lift rates to a level that actively restrains the economy and to keep them there for an extended period. The higher rates rise and the longer they stay at restrictive levels, the greater the extent of the economic pain, Fed chair Jay Powell warned last month.

        Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said on Thursday that he supported the Fed pausing after rates reach a restrictive level in order to take stock of the economy, adding that he saw rates “well above” 4 per cent by the end of 2022.

        “After that, if we have to, we can tighten further, based on the data,” he said in a speech. “But we should let the system work itself out. And we also need to recognise that this will take time. Inflation is known to shoot up like a rocket and then come down like a feather.”

        On Wednesday, Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed and a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee next year, also affirmed that the bar was high for the Fed to adjust course.

        “If we don’t see progress in underlying inflation or core inflation, I don’t see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5 per cent, or 4.75 per cent or something like that,” he said on a panel. “We need to see actual progress in core inflation and services inflation and we are not seeing it yet.”

        The move in rate expectations came after Canada and the UK reported this week that consumer prices rose more than expected in September.

        “This is a global story. Inflation numbers in Canada and the UK have surprised to the upside. It is the global inflation dynamic that is pushing US yield higher this week,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Société Générale.

    3. Is another Credit Crunch in the cards, like the one that transpired in summer 2007 before all hell broke loose?

      1. The Financial Times
        Opinion US Treasury bonds
        The market in Treasuries is storing up trouble
        Questions raised by policymakers are a sign of mounting unease about American government bonds
        Gillian Tett yesterday

        This month, global investors have watched the wild gyrations of gilts — and British politicians — with mounting horror.

        But now that UK bond markets seem calmer — if not UK politics — investors should peek look across the Atlantic at the unfolding story in the $23.5tn world of American government bonds.

        Back in March 2020, the Treasuries market nearly froze up amid a trading ruckus. Disaster was only averted when the Federal Reserve dramatically intervened to buy bonds (presaging the recent move by the Bank of England).

        Today, surface conditions seem calm — at least compared to gilts — and policymakers are (rightly) emphasising that the US economy is far stronger than the UK one. Plus, US politicians have not made quite such crazy fiscal mistakes. At least, not yet.

        But underneath this surface veneer, some nasty currents are swirling in the Treasuries world. A JPMorgan index of Treasury market liquidity has recently deteriorated to the lows seen in March 2020. A separate Bloomberg index suggests the situation could be even worse. Meanwhile the Ice-BofA Move index of implied Treasury market volatility is also hovering near March 2020 levels, while buyer demand at auctions is weakening.

        More striking still, these trends recently prompted Janet Yellen, US Treasury secretary, to take the rare step of admitting in public that she is “worried about a loss of adequate liquidity in the market”. On Friday her staff did something remarkable: in a regular market survey, they asked the Treasury Bond Auction Committee (the bankers who run bonds sales) if the government should start buying less-liquid Treasuries, to prevent them freezing up.

        As it happens, this idea was recently floated in a TBAC report, which is peppered with eye-popping charts showing the liquidity crunch. But most bankers presumed buybacks would not occur because that would complicate the Fed’s efforts to end quantitative easing. So the fact the Treasury is now likely to introduce this is a telling sign of the mounting unease.

        Why is this occurring? In part because of generalised investor angst. A Bank of America survey this week shows that 31 per cent of asset managers view liquidity conditions across asset classes as “poor” — a level last seen in March 2020, or 2008.

        However, the Treasuries market is also plagued by particular challenges. One is size: US government outstanding issuance has almost doubled since 2015 and quadrupled since 2007. US Treasury market growth has significantly outpaced the growth in bank capital since 2008. This is a remarkable — and little noticed — shift.

        Another problem (echoed elsewhere) is that quantitative tightening is raising questions about who will buy government bonds as the Fed stops buying Treasuries. As a punchy paper by economists including Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya recently noted, with masterly understatement, this QT is “not likely to be an entirely benign process”. Investors are skittish.

    4. Updated Thu, Oct 20 2022 5:09 PM EDT
      Stocks close lower for second day as Treasury yields continue march to new highs
      Jesse Pound
      Sarah Min

      Stocks fell in choppy trading on Thursday as investors weighed several key earnings reports and kept an eye on the bond market, where Treasury yields continue to climb.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 90.22 points, or 0.30%, to 30,333.59. The S&P 500 fell 0.80% to 3,665.78. The Nasdaq Composite shed 0.61% to close at 10,614.84. The Dow was up nearly 400 points at session highs, but stocks faded as Treasury yields rose.

      The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached a high of 4.239% on Thursday, trading at levels not seen since 2008. Rising rates have been a headwind for stocks all year, as the Federal Reserve continues to try and cool off inflationary pressures not seen in decades.

      “As long as official policy is to make the stock market go down, so that people are less wealthy, so that they buy fewer things, so that prices stop going up, all while doing nothing about fiscal policy, we believe the correct posture is to be bearish on stocks and bullish on inflation,” Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn said in an investor letter obtained by CNBC.

  15. Cannibal Mark Latunski found guilty of murdering man named Kevin Bacon

    By David Propper
    October 19, 2022

    A Michigan cannibal was convicted of killing a man named Kevin Bacon that he met on a dating app after admitting to the gruesome crime last month.

    Mark Latunski, 53, was found guilty Wednesday of first-degree murder by Circuit Court Judge Matthew Stewart after almost two days of testimony in the sickening case where the cannibal reportedly told cops he ate part of the victim.

    “The court finds that this is a crime of cold calculation,” Stewart said, according to “Kevin Bacon’s death was Mark Latunski’s design.”

    Latunski lured Bacon to his Bennington Township home in December where he then stabbed the victim in the back and removed parts of body before eating them, according to the outlet. He reportedly told cops he even cut off and ate Bacon’s testicles.

    Bacon’s corpse was found by police hanging by the ankles from the ceiling of Latunski’s basement.

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