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The Housing Market Hit Kind Of A Brick Wall

A report from Business Den. “The two-bedroom, one-bathroom home at 3612 Newton St. is a classic Colorado bungalow. But it was something of a nightmare for Opendoor, the data-driven home flipper. The San Francisco-based ‘iBuyer’ paid $779,000 for the Newton Street home on April 20, according to public records. Six months later, on Oct. 11, Opendoor sold the home for $625,000 — $154,000 less than the company paid for it. Opendoor lost at least $50,000 on 10 of the 36 flips, BusinessDen found. The second-worst flip involved a southwest Denver home at 5960 W. Milan Place, which Opendoor bought for $743,200 in May and sold for $645,200 in August — a drop of $98,000.”

“The phenomenon isn’t unique to Denver. Bloomberg, citing research from YipitData, reported that Opendoor lost money on 42 percent of its transactions in August. ‘Opendoor’s metrics are in the danger zone,’ Mike DelPrete, a scholar at the University of Colorado Boulder, told Bloomberg last month. ‘They are very close to where Zillow was in its worst moments.'”

From NPR. “NPR’s Ayesha Rascoe speaks with Natalie Vaughan, a realtor working in the Northern Virginia/DC area about the housing market in today’s economy. ‘Well, look, we’re never going to see 3.5% interest rates, you know, any time in the foreseeable future. I have five or six lenders that I speak to on a regular basis. And some of them are saying we’re going to hit 10%. That’s a scary thought, right? And some of them are saying, no, no, no, we think that things are going to settle down, and we’re going to see maybe a 6%, which – we’re over seven right now. And I think interest rates will probably go up maybe to 8%. Six percent is going to seem like a dream in six months.'”

The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal in Texas. “Newly constructed or continuing construction homes have been popping up all over Lubbock, from $1 million dollar homes to $260,000, despite a cooling market. This influx of new homes helped boost active listings to 51% in September, though closed sales went down by 17%. ‘Earlier this spring, we had no inventory, interest rates were very low,’ said Rich Eberhardt, president of the Lubbock Association of Realtors. ‘Builders recognized that and started building a lot of homes, but it takes time to build a house. Now, our inventory is triple what we had, and a large part of that is new construction.'”

“‘The market has cooled quite a bit,’ he said. ‘Interest rates are much higher now as well, so we are starting to see some builders offer incentives to get their houses sold. Some help with closing costs, offer landscaping allowances, those kind of things. Some subdivisions around Kelsey Park are building million dollar homes and million dollar specs (homes without buyers yet), which hasn’t been done in Lubbock prior to the last few years.'”

“Counting the 907 homes on the market in September, the median price for a home is $243,623. ‘In June, we saw prices increase about 16%, which, in a normal market, we’d see 1-2%, so this year was a real aberration,’ Eberhardt said. ‘I don’t see prices going down, but I don’t see an increase at the same level that they did last year. This is (becoming) a more normal market. I’ve been doing this for 27 years, and I’ve never seen a market like this year’s. It’s a great time to buy, because you’re not pressured into making a decision, or don’t necessarily have to pay a lot more than the list price.'”

Bisnow South Florida. “While Miami might be insulated from the worst of a possible recession, developers aren’t insulated from inflation. Construction costs in particular have risen so much that they are starting to slow down development, Two Roads Development President Brad Meltzer said this week. ‘I think you are either going to see some projects stall a little bit or not happen for a little while,’ he said. ‘A former client of mine, his contracts are currently on hold. He is waiting. It depends on what market sector you are in, whether or not there is a market demand to increase the price or not to absorb some of the construction prices.'”

The Jacksonville Daily Record in Florida. “The median price of a single-family home fell 2.6% in September to $380,000 in the Northeast Florida market comprising Duval, Clay, St. Johns, Baker, Putnam and Nassau counties. It’s the first price decline in the market this year. In Duval County, the September median price fell 1.5% to $335,000. In Clay, it fell 2.9% to $355,990. Baker fell 9.5% to $305,000. Putnam dropped 10.3% to $210,725. ‘While still in a ‘sellers’ market the trend continues to move toward a more balanced market,’ NEFAR President Mark Rosener said. ‘I anticipate that the median price will continue to fluctuate month to month in the 3 to 5% range in either direction for the balance of the year.'”

“September building permits for single-family homes in Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties fell to 978 in September, a 17.12% decline from the 1,180 issued in August, according to the Northeast Florida Builders Association. ‘You know, some of it is folks dialing back on what they’re doing and trying to figure out where the economy is heading,’ said Jessie Spradley, NEFBA executive officer.”

The Berkshire Eagle in Massachusetts. “‘It’s definitely caused the market to cool a bit,’ said Tara McCluskey, vice president of mortgage originations at Greylock Federal Credit Union. ‘When we say cooling, we’re not seeing those 10 offers on the table. There are less offers over the asking price. More normal offers are coming in.’ ‘We’ve seen a drastic decline in applications,’ said Jay Anderson, the CEO of Pittsfield Cooperative Bank, referring to people applying for mortgages. That 15 percent decline has occurred mostly over the last 60 days, he said. ‘I think there’s a lag effect when rates go up, and people get to a point where they stop,’ Anderson said.”

KHSB in Missouri. “A local moving company, A Friend With A Truck Movers, is feeling the load of inflation as rising mortgage rates have created a domino effect. Owner John Sheridan says business is down about 25% compared to normal years. As a business that depends on the rise and fall of the housing market, the current decline concerns Sheridan. ‘I think the housing market hit kind of a brick wall there a little bit,’ said Sheridan. ‘The winter season is always naturally slow, so that compacting with the interest rates is a little scary.'”

“Employees are completing about three to four moves per day, down from about five to 10 this time last year. Sheridan hopes people moving into Kansas City will keep the business afloat. Mante Thomas has been a mover with the company for 10 years. While business is slower these days, he says a new trend in the housing market is keeping their services relevant. ‘There’s been a lot of smaller moves, and I see a lot of people moving from houses to apartments,’ said Thomas. ‘Places that are cheaper or they’re moving in with someone.'”

From KHON 2. “Mortgage rates have hit 7% for the first time in two decades, but what does that mean for Hawaii’s real estate market? Amber Ricci with EXP Realty said Hawaii’s strong sellers market is starting to level out and some are thinking outside of the box to buy. ‘What I’m seeing with some of my clients is that they are having their parents co-sign or having their siblings co-sign to help back up that they can get a bigger priced mortgage,’ Ricci said. Ricci said some realtors are even offering concessions out of their commission to secure a sale, so it is a good time to buy even though mortgage rates are at a 20-year high.”

From Bisnow. “Real estate brokerage Compass Inc. named Kalani Reelitz, previously a Cushman & Wakefield executive, as its new chief financial officer, effective Nov. 15. He will ‘focus on building sustained profitability and free cash flow generation,’ according to a statement. The company lost nearly $800M during the 18 months spanning 2021 and the first half of this year and will report further results in the second week of November. In the meantime, investors aren’t too keen on its stock. Trading of Compass shares began on April 1, 2021, at a little more than $20 per share. On Friday, Compass traded for about $2.50.”

“This summer, SoftBank’s Vision Fund said that its stake in Compass had lost about half of its value — down to $543M compared with the $1.08B it invested across three rounds of funding. The New York-based Compass has already taken steps to stem its losses, including a layoff in June that affected about 10% of its full-time workforce and the closing of Modus, a title business that Compass bought in 2020. In September, there was another round of layoffs.”

KPBS in California. “‘Prices in San Diego are down now for the fourth month in a row. So the median home price — that includes every type of house you can imagine — that’s $795,000. So that’s down from our all-time high of $850,000 in May,’ said Phillip Molnar, senior business reporter with The San Diego Union-Tribune. ‘So it’s sort of a substantial drop, a 6% drop in a year.'”

CBS 8 in California. “The Fed raised interest rates to slow the red hot housing market. In some cases, that’s adding an extra $1,800 to a mortgage payment. Jeff Tucker, and economist with Zillow said, ‘It’s looking like a $4500 mortgage payment for the typical home in San Diego after putting 20% down. That’s a lot of money. Frankly that’s more than what a lot of people in San Diego are even paying for rent so that’s the biggest hurdle.'”

“Tucker said those prices have eliminated a lot of buyers out of the running, especially in expensive markets like, San Diego. ‘There’s room to negotiate and those negotiations don’t only go up like they did in 2021,’ Tucker said. Dara is a potential first-time home buyer whose been looking since January of 2021. ‘It’s scary. At the end of every day, it’s like ‘Crap! Should I be doing this? I don’t know,’ he said. Dara said, he’s actually seen this work in buyer’s favor. ‘Before whatever they listed it as is what they get. Now there’s houses sitting on the market for 30 days. They’re sitting on the market for a month and a half. They have to drop their cost and I’m like, okay, I can talk to these people now.'”

The Globe and Mail. “Another Canadian startup that raised significant venture capital during the pandemic technology boom has scaled back its work force as the sector’s troubles mount. RenoRun Inc., a Montreal startup building an Instacart-like service delivering construction materials to contractors, on Thursday cut 43 per cent of its staff, or 210 people. It’s the second recent round of layoffs for the company after it cut 70 employees, or 12 per cent of its staff at the time, in August and froze expansion plans. RenoRun, which had more than 550 employees in July, now has 274. The latest cuts were across the company including three of its eight-person leadership team, CEO Eamonn O’Rourke said in an interview.”

“‘We pride ourselves on our people first, and to have to do something like this is tough for everybody,’ he said. While Mr. O’Rourke expects RenoRun to more than double revenue in 2022 – a consistent pattern for the company – ‘the business environment we’re operating in has fundamentally changed.'”

“Layoffs have swept across the tech sector as companies have had to pivot from a ‘grow-at-all-costs’ mentality to setting out a path to reaching profitability in the face of an expected recession. According to Layoffs.fyi, which tracks startup job losses, more than 700 companies including Shopify, Hootsuite and Clearco have laid off a combined 94,000-plus people in 2022. Mr. O’Rourke had hoped in 2022 for RenoRun to hit US$100-million in revenue, expand from serving five cities – Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago – to 10 and to keep hiring. But after entering Washington, it decided to stop expanding, trim staff and preserve cash.”

From Globes. “A black cloud hangs over Israel’s office market, which is highly dependent on the tech sector, after tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and Intel have all announced planned cutbacks. There have been no layoffs from the tech giants in Israel yet but the local real estate office market is anxious. Avison Young Israel – propertech CEO Guy Amosi said, ‘It causes a situation in which people sit on the fence. It becomes more difficult for them to take decisions in the current climate and creates a situation in which all deals are now halted, even those that were in the pipeline. We had two or three deals involving tens of thousands of square meters just recently in which the companies decided in the middle of proceedings ‘let’s stop for six months and we will see where things are going.’ In other words by the movement of the leaves, you can understand the direction of the wind: there is a halt, and the way to a price drop is not far, in my opinion.'”

“‘We still see occupancy of more than 90% in the quality towers in Tel Aviv but there is undoubtedly a slowdown in demand for commercial real estate in recent months,’ says realtor Osher Ossi who specializes in commercial real estate with an emphasis on high demand areas in Tel Aviv. ‘If the situation continues, the funds in the high-tech companies will run out, and we can already see many of them starting to reduce expenses. The big question is whether the global economy will manage to recover before the high-tech companies spend all their reserves.'”

“Amosi says of the new situation, ‘Suddenly there are thousands of square meters of vacant office space in Tel Aviv. Companies are subleasing areas in towers by the Ramat Gan Diamond Exchange, entire floors in the Vitania tower in Tel Aviv are already subleased, and individual buildings in Tel Aviv, with 2,000 and 3,000 square meters, are mostly empty. The companies rented offices at high prices, and now want to reduce the damage, so they don’t mind renting the spaces for NIS 10-15 per meter less, just to show that they have reduced the damage. The market is currently in a crazy imbalance, which will surely close over time – but right now we have a gap that cannot be bridged, between sellers and renters and buyers and renters. In my opinion, over a range of 12 to 50 months from now, we will see a lot of office space here that will be offered for rent.'”

“Amosi concludes, ‘The best advice right now is to sit and wait. Every Monday I talk to all the real estate advisors in Europe, and every Thursday with the real estate advisors in North America. The picture that emerges from my recent meetings with them is that we are part of the global situation and in New York the situation is no different, and in London the situation is even worse. In any case, the pace of decision-making is much slower today, and I think it is right to pause a little now, see what is happening in the market and only then act.'”

From Womans Day in Australia. “A dark cloud is brewing over the final week of The Block, with a perfect storm seemingly gathering over the show’s much-hyped finale, sending the already stressed contestants into a tailspin as they look set to lose big after months of hard work.It’s not the only disaster threatening to derail the show’s finale. The Block producers fear history could repeat – and some of the houses may fail to sell at auction again.”

“Indeed, the odds have never been more stacked against the reality hit. With house prices in freefall and tipped to drop across the country by another 15 per cent by the end of next year. Winners on The Block New Zealand walked away with a dismal $3046, while the couple who came second took home just $76, leaving fans calling for the show to be axed! ‘We would be upset to walk away with nothing. The auction is the pinnacle of The Block. It’s what we’ve been planning for since day one. It’s the light at the end of the tunnel after the hardest slog of our life,’ Rachel confides to Woman’s Day.”

“Even The Block’s resident foreman Keith says Ankur and Sharon’s house is ‘as bad as it gets,’ and confesses, ‘I don’t think that house will sell.’ This series’ contestants certainly may have regrets about appearing on the show, after they put their lives – and livelihoods – on hold to compete for the cash. Sharon, 35, and Ankur, 41, told Woman’s Day they were relying on the show to ‘bring down that mortgage of ours and assist us financially.’ And the actress has called the build a ‘s–t show,’ and the couple confessed they would ‘do everything differently’ if they had their time over again. ‘I don’t even feel comfortable having anyone walk through with the state of where we’re at.'”

“‘It’s 12 weeks of not sleeping, constant relentless pressure – brutal,’ Sharon says of the experience. ‘And it seems it may all be for nothing.'”

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This Post Has 114 Comments

  1. ‘we are starting to see some builders offer incentives to get their houses sold. Some help with closing costs, offer landscaping allowances, those kind of things. Some subdivisions around Kelsey Park are building million dollar homes and million dollar specs (homes without buyers yet), which hasn’t been done in Lubbock prior to the last few years’

    ‘In Duval County, the September median price fell 1.5% to $335,000. In Clay, it fell 2.9% to $355,990. Baker fell 9.5% to $305,000. Putnam dropped 10.3% to $210,725’

    You really screwed up this time Jerry.

    1. Even those prices are way too high. Where I live most decent homes are priced in the $330,000 range. You can look up when they were sold and it’s not uncommon to find their last sale within the last decade and in the $150,000 range.

      2. Mortgage rates are already over 7%. They’re probably going well over 10% before this is all said and done, and it’s going to take years to get inflation under control.

        Most locations can’t even support a median price of $150,000 at 10% mortgage rates.

  2. ‘It’s 12 weeks of not sleeping, constant relentless pressure – brutal,’ Sharon says of the experience. ‘And it seems it may all be for nothing.’

    Every time this happens they go into national mourning.

    1. oh stop. please. Your made up numbers and repeating made up quotes are always dumb, but now you hit someplace I know intimately.

      Boulder prices haven’t fallen 25% and they are years and years away from being a median price of 225k. It’s going to take a 80% fall to even get near 225k in Boulder.

      So please, just stop with these made up ridiculous numbers and quotes, they don’t help.

      2. It looks like they updated the movoto website. My favorite metric on that site used to be days on market, which routinely was somewhere around 7,000. Maybe the Zillow and opendoor guys wrote the movoto algorithm as well.

        I’ve tried to shame him/her/bot into stopping, but they are persistent in their excretion of garbage.

      3. It’s going to take a 80% fall to even get near 225k in Boulder.

        That’s just how big the bubble is in your town. House prices 10x income!

        1. “That’s just how big the bubble is in your town. House prices 10x income!”

          I see 8x-10x housing/income ratios all over the place. But, but, but, it’s different here, they say!

          1. The reality is M&L doesn’t cost any more or less in Boulder CO than anywhere else.

            $38 a square foot for a resale house is a long way down for Boulder.

          2. at 3% rates a 6x median is probably sustainable. At 5% maybe 4x. At 7% it’s definitely at the 3x. And at 10%? Whoever has 50k cash can have one. Maybe two.

          3. FWIW, the median family income in Boulder is well into the 6 figures. I know more than a few families pulling down 200-300K.

      4. Boulder prices haven’t fallen 25% and they are years and years away from being a median price of 225k. It’s going to take a 80% fall to even get near 225k in Boulder.

        They dropped after the previous crash, but not even close to 80%. IIRC, it was about 25% from the peak to the bottom, and then it took off again.

        I would suggest you install the Joshua Tree extension into your browser. This allows you to block posts from those whom you deem bombastic and useless.

          1. no, what upsets us is your crappy made up data and even more imaginary and repeating quotes. (also your complete lack of understanding of how appraisals work). It’s just idiocy and it doesn’t help anyone’s argument either way.

          3. what upsets us is…

            You’re only speaking for yourself. JMO, but perhaps you were upset before you came here. As for trying to censor and insult us, my advice is to spend your every effort to get out of debt and stay out of debt.

      5. “So please, just stop with these made up ridiculous numbers and quotes, they don’t help.”

        Well…..I kinda disagree with that last statement. I agree the posts are erroneous. But if it influences just one person not to pull the trigger and buy a house in your neck of the woods, making a HUGE financial mistake, wouldn’t it be helpful? I mean we all agree on where this thing is headed, right? It took deception to get us into this mess, why not help out with a little deception? I’d call it a benevolent deception.

          1. It seems to me sir that some people here don’t realize HBB is not Twitter. Perhaps they may run back to their echo chambers soon! 🤣

            Sing it from the rooftops!

  5. “Peter Schiff: The Fed Got Everybody Drunk On Cheap Money But The Party Is Over”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-fed-got-everybody-drunk-cheap-money-party-over

    (snip)

    “You can trace the Fed’s inflationary monetary policy all the way back to 1998 and the Long-Term Capital Management bailout.

    That’s when the Fed really started printing money. And then it printed even more money in advance of Y2K. And then even more money after the NASDAQ bubble popped in 2000. And even more money after the real estate bubble popped in 2008. So, it’s not just one year of excess money printing. The Fed has been too loose for almost 25 years, flooding the economy with cheap money.”

    Peter said he knew 2008 wasn’t the real crash. The reckless monetary policy in the response to the Great Recession simply papered things over and kicked the looming crisis down the road.

    Well, the real crash is the one we’re headed for right now. And we were going to have that crash regardless of the mistakes the Fed made in 2021. We were going to have it because of all the mistakes it made — not just going back to 2008 — but going all the way back to 1998.”

    1. “https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-fed-got-everybody-drunk-cheap-money-party-over”

      They still pine away and long for The Big Fat Bastard.

      Golden, CO Housing Prices Crater 24% YOY As Denvers Subprime Mortgage Debacle Expands Across Central Colorado

      https://www.movoto.com/co/80401/market-trends/

      As one Denver broker explained, “When a new house costing $200k to construct sells for $300k or more, it’s fraud.”

    2. “Peter said he knew 2008 wasn’t the real crash. The reckless monetary policy in the response to the Great Recession simply papered things over and kicked the looming crisis down the road.”

      So based on knowing this, he must’ve gone big into stocks and real estate to capitalize on the Fed’s reckless activity that he knew would inflate more bubbles. He wouldn’t have stayed in gold and watched it crash 30%. Not Peter.

        1. He said 2008 not 1998. And yes maybe a little cherry picking but stocks and real estate exploded while gold dropped considerably.

          1. No, the quote was that “you can trace the FED’s inflationary monetary policy back to 1998.” So, I went and checked gold prices in 1998. He’s WAY up, still, if he bought gold then.

            That being said, I personally think it’s a lousy time to buy gold. The prices are too high given that the FED is raising rates. I have a small amount of precious metals, but they are strictly as a hedge against a currency collapse. I wouldn’t want more than 5% of my net worth in them.

          2. they are strictly as a hedge

            It’s nice to have something in your hand that can buy a decades worth of food in a pinch.

    3. You can trace the Fed’s inflationary monetary policy all the way back to 1998 and the Long-Term Capital Management bailout.

      Ah yes, 1998. And what other big scandal was in the news back then that had to be papered over with frantic money printing?

  6. “‘Opendoor’s metrics are in the danger zone,’ Mike DelPrete, a scholar at the University of Colorado Boulder, told Bloomberg last month. ‘They are very close to where Zillow was in its worst moments.’”

    1. Create lame algorithm
    2. Con all of the “smart money” into investing.
    3. Get rich
    4. Watch your company crash and burn from your yacht.

  7. “‘What I’m seeing with some of my clients is that they are having their parents co-sign or having their siblings co-sign to help back up that they can get a bigger priced mortgage,’ Ricci said.”

    Imagine those Thanksgivings in about 2-3 years. That’s some reality TV I’d watch.

    1. Citizen! The globalist-approved Arbiters of Truth at the NYT and WaPo have decreed that Joe Biden is our most popular president with 81 million votes, and that any assertion to the contrary is The Big Lie. Furthermore, disputing the validity of the 2020 elections, despite any and all evidence of voter fraud and irregularities, marks you as an ideological bedfellow and co-conspirator of the J6 insurrectionists, and the bearer of an ideological virus more virulent and deadly than COVID: BadThink!! This makes you a threat to Our Democracy [a term found nowhere in the Constitution]. Your very existence violates our Community Standards! Our Google Comrades have flagged you as an Irredeemable Deplorable, so when the boxcars begin to roll, rest assured, the Black Maria vans will be visiting your house in the first wave of arrests! Forward!

      1. “The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.”

  9. A reader sent these in:

    John Wake

    The number of single-family houses listed for sale in the metro Phoenix MLS priced from $1M to $1.5M has more than quadrupled since last February.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1586754004884672512

    This is not oil, a meme stock or even a sh*tcoin. It’s credit card debt in America.

    https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1586756254847979520

    Worst year for Treasuries since the US constitution was written

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1586100426289594370

    PUTs on the entire Canadian housing market, they’re letting anyone buy at this point.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1586644077054828544

    You got Zuck‘d …Meta free-cash flow used to be in the $ billions.
    Now it is in the $ millions. Will Zuck have the courage to pull the plug and save his company ? Or do you think his pride will continue with the Metaverse disaster ?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1586689382748225536

    “Inflation came from nowhere” – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (Aka Madame Inflation) She has printed trillions of Euros and kept rates below 0% for years.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1586742825693192192

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    “Based on population projections, China may have enough housing to meet future needs. As an economy w/unprecedented dependence on housebuilding, it risks making same mistake as Japan, simply carrying on w/new construction as if demographics did not matter”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1586721777027354624

    Totally agreed, and specifically in the U.S. the housing industry has had a ~2x multiplier effect on GDP growth, and the middle-income class’ growth in net worth has predominantly been tied to homeownership and home price appreciation. Any slowdown in housing has wide ripple

    https://twitter.com/ReidMaetani/status/1586140272584720384

    Rental demand is falling apart lowest since 2009

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1586703076039266307

    The way I see it the issues for the Aussie property market dont end when the RBA stops raising rates or even when it starts cutting them.
    Its fate will also be decided by the fate of the global economy and unlike 2008 there is no easy boost heading our way from Beijing.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1586285000684580864

    Many talks about how falling US home prices signal a peak in inflation. However, everyone correctly notes that there is a big lag between house price inflation and CPI. Back in the GFC, that lag was about 2 years.

    https://twitter.com/f_wintersberger/status/1586348626829271041

    CarDealershipGuy

    2 types of rich people (from my experience):
    Type 1 – Gets rich and immediately buys $100k+ car
    Type 2 – Gets rich and drives the same 2007 Toyota Corolla for 10 years

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1586387107047694341

    John Burns

    2 very different RE “investor” stories are playing out right now. Investors who invest for the long-term, using fixed rate debt with plenty of debt coverage and patient equity, are not panicking. Speculators refer to themselves as investors, and are panicking.

    https://twitter.com/johnburnsjbrec/status/1586075739069108224

    Aaron Layman
    @dfwaaronlayman
    When I said Collin County & North TX suburbs could be the epicenter of the DFW correction I wasn’t kidding. Celina average prices down $179k (22%) from spring peak. Prosper down $157k. Collin County average prices down $92,000. *Preliminary data as of Oct 29*

    https://twitter.com/dfwaaronlayman/status/1586334883852550144

    Anyone else seeing these discounted RV ads? John Rubino has long used RV sales as one of his ‘brown M&M’ indicators. Because they’re a luxury toy, when sales start slumping, it’s a sign the consumer is financially retrenching & recession is likely on the way

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1586374117808144384

    Redfin and Zillow are both removing the history of when properties come on and off the market in several Bay Area markets. Instead of a series of downward price changes, the realtor pulls the listing, the previous list price goes away, and re-list the property the next day.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisJBakke/status/1586445964167872512

    Zero buyers, Toll Brothers

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1586486158208311296

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Housing market update:

    1. Homes sales fell an alarming 10.2% in September

    2. Record 22% of listings dropped price in September

    3. Number of homes selling above list price down 48%

    4. Mortgage demand lowest since 1997

    5. New listings down 19% this year

    The bubble has popped.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1586400702384852993

    Whether the little guy keeps his job and lose to inflation or lose his job to a recession, the end result the little guy loses and fat cats like Sternlicht win in this Fed induced ponzi scheme economy. Just come clean and say “My portfolio is down 25% so I want the Fed to stop”

    https://twitter.com/TheMaverickWS/status/1586481114540961792

    #CMBS is in trouble. As inflation rages I see more of this in the future

    https://twitter.com/frankoz95967943/status/1586360534437199872

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    What was the key post-pandemic driver of home sales?

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1586383380484329472

    The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is down 10.2% for September and 30% YoY. This will lead to depressed sales data in 1-2 months. We really won’t know the full extent of what’s happening now until Jan 2023…

    https://twitter.com/kmasonrealtor/status/1586098730570244097

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    C-suite comment on Meritage Homes call Thursday synthesized current state of housing: “We really look at it as you need a price cut to get people in the door.”

    https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1586349090454925314

    Ryan Lundquist

    Flirting with last year? That’s basically what we’re seeing with the weekly median price in the Sacramento region. It’s been a bit since I’ve shared weekly stats, but the monthly trend is showing the same dynamic too.

    https://twitter.com/SacAppraiser/status/1586375499210641408

    Call this morning from a friend. Not a client. He got the trigger call from the bank. Options given: lump sum, increase payments, or short term fixed at 5.41. Payments have gone up over $1k and variable is now at 5.49. The original rate was at 2%.

    https://twitter.com/mybuddynick89/status/1586021778438004737

    1. ‘When I said Collin County & North TX suburbs could be the epicenter of the DFW correction I wasn’t kidding. Celina average prices down $179k (22%) from spring peak. Prosper down $157k. Collin County average prices down $92,000’

      I told you guys this was going to happen. Way out there, stupid prices, no shortage of land til you get to the Red River. Oh wait,there’s Oklahoma!

      2. The number of single-family houses listed for sale in the metro Phoenix MLS priced from $1M to $1.5M has more than quadrupled since last February.

        You could give me a house for free and I wouldn’t live in that hell hole during the summer.

        1. I get that many Clownifornia refugees fled to Arizona and Nevada in order to stay within driving distance of family left behind in Clownland, plus there are jobs in Phoenix and Vegas, but dude, it gets hot there.

          I knew a couple that moved from San Diego to Tucson many years ago. They told me that in the summer they have to get up early to do any outdoor chores on the weekends as by 9AM it would be too hot.

          1. They told me that in the summer they have to get up early to do any outdoor chores on the weekends as by 9AM it would be too hot.

            Right. And I’m a person who likes to be outside. To have to be cooped up indoors during the summer would make me so depressed I couldn’t think straight. That’s not a life I want to live. I spend every day outdoors in the summer.

    2. “Instead of a series of downward price changes, the realtor pulls the listing, the previous list price goes away, and re-list the property the next day.”

      Dutch auction, with Realtor deception thrown in…

      1. This is not new. 20+ years ago this was common. Avg days on market would be like 270 days, then it would disappear for a few days and then reappear with 0 days on market. Because lots of people would search by long days on market to see who would be willing to deal. But realtors figured out how to work around that. Everything old is new again.

    3. This is not oil, a meme stock or even a sh*tcoin. It’s credit card debt in America.

      Looking at that chart, it almost perfectly coincides with the end of the “extra $600” that expired Sept. 2021. Aside from the PPP loan nonsense, that was the most reckless act Congress has ever committed. It led to distortions and insidious behaviors that will take decades to fix.

      1. I remember the “extra $600” crowd ordering fast food via uber eats, because after doing nothing all day they couldn’t be arsed to get into their car and get it themselves. Much better to pay an extra $10, plus tip, for that Big Mac.

    4. Meta free-cash flow used to be in the $ billions.
      Now it is in the $ millions.

      Wow. From over $12 billion to less than $200 million in 10 months. At that burn rate they’re out of cash in a matter of weeks!

      1. How can they burn so much cash? It’s just a server farm. Unless they were using their own cloud to host it, and even then, I don’t see how they could spend that much.

  10. WION Business News | Hong Kong’s property vacancies hit record
    Oct 31, 2022 Hong Kong’s tumbling residential market combined with a commercial downturn has impacted Hong Kong’s property badly. The country’s most prestigious skyscrapers have more empty office space now than ever before.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4_scDi7OAw

    1:39.

  13. How badly underwater are the iBuyers by now?

    “The San Francisco-based ‘iBuyer’ paid $779,000 for the Newton Street home on April 20, according to public records. Six months later, on Oct. 11, Opendoor sold the home for $625,000 — $154,000 less than the company paid for it. Opendoor lost at least $50,000 on 10 of the 36 flips, BusinessDen found.”

  15. Report: Joe Biden Working on Another $50 Billion Ukraine Aid Package After Midterms

    CHARLIE SPIERING
    31 Oct 2022

    The White House is discussing an additional $50 billion in aid for Ukraine after the midterm elections, according to NBC News.

    President Joe Biden is considering the move, particularly if Democrats lose their majorities in the House and Senate, the report notes, citing “officials familiar with the discussions.” The number is expected to be around $50 billion.

    (found on our radar)

    https://www.breitbart.com/

    @BreitbartNews
    ·
    Biden wants to spend $13.7 billion more in aid to Ukraine as his massive slush fund already approved by Congress earlier this year is running dry.

    https://twitter.com/BreitbartNews/status/1566135859514155008?s=20&t=mfT2wguwkJayY12vCH_E2Q

  16. If open door was a drinking buddy he would automatically take all the ugly chicks while I pick the better of the two. Lol. He would probably pic up the tab too….because the way he looks at, if he is getting a 2% rebate on his credit card he is making money!

  17. I saw something this morning. I think it was the LA Times. It said ‘Elon Musk tweets conspiracy theory about Paul (da Hammah) Pelosi’ or like that. None of these people involved are politicians. This isn’t a political matter, and not enough is known now. But I found it odd that right-think lines had already been drawn. How do they know what is a conspiracy? Are we not allowed to say what we speculate? This clown was driving too drunk to walk not that long ago. Is it that hard to imagine something odd was going on between weirdo men in SF at 2AM?

    It shows that all “truth” can only come from globalist scum media or their approved sources. Don’t even open yer mouth, wait for us to tell you what happened, even though we don’t know. And if you do open yer mouth we will shut you down, label you “far right”. This is what totalitarians do. We have to reject this each and every time these dogs yap. In this country we don’t have “approved” thought or speech.

    1. of course they were silent about Hillary’s conspiracy theory tweet. At this point it’s all speculation. But when they call it a “false conspiracy theory” or “misinformation” within 12 hours, that takes the cake. And of course it’s only one side that gets labeled as such.

      But seriously, how could anyone believe that a guy lucky enough to be with Nancy Pelosi could ever be tempted!?

      1. ‘it’s only one side’

        Pointing out their hypocrisy doesn’t matter cuz they don’t care. What I’m saying is they now attempt to control any and all narratives, anywhere, by default. Even if the story is a few hours old. This cannot be tolerated.

        2. very true.

          One way to combat it is to pretend they don’t exist. If CNN and LA Times and NYT and MSNBC etc etc all went away today I wouldn’t notice.

        3. Pointing out their hypocrisy doesn’t matter cuz they don’t care.

          Just watch the Haitian wonder press secretary. She just ignores the hard questions now, she doesn’t even bother to try to refute them.

          And yes, the Dems are making their move to completely take over. Remember, it’s only a “Democracy” when they are in power. And remember, Dems are not “in office”, when they win they are “in power” . They do not believe in a “loyal opposition”.

          And also remember, they accuse the opposition of what they are doing. So when they accuse the Right of wanting to end democracy and impose authoritarianism, that’s what the Left is doing.

          1. Liberal Journalist Points Out Holes in Nancy Pelosi’s Husband Attack Story
            The Rubin Report
            Oct 31, 2022 Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks about Glenn Greenwald pointing out the holes in the mainstream media’s narrative of the Paul Pelosi attack and break-in of Nancy Pelosi’s home by David DePape.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-3IdAX0RCc

            4:24.

          2. And also remember, they accuse the opposition of what they are doing. So when they accuse the Right of wanting to end democracy and impose authoritarianism, that’s what the Left is doing.”

            VDH talks about this often its even got a fancy name I cant remember like transposition ?

          4. Projection

            It’s not a strategy, it’s a symptom. One cannot argue away a symptom. Hard boundaries are the only possible response.

    2. Not surprising that Yahoo is not allowing comments on any of the articles while spinning this BS Q’Anon narrative, nevermind reports say that this guy was a hardcore lib.

  19. Pro-Abortion ‘Call Jane,’ Starring Elizabeth Banks, Bombs at Box Office on Opening Weekend

    DAVID NG
    31 Oct 2022

    The pro-abortion movie Call Jane, starring Elizabeth Banks and Sigourney Weaver, is turning out to be a box-office flop, mustering just $240,755 in 1,070 theaters in its first weekend for a pitiful per-screen average of $225.

    Call Jane, released by Roadside Attractions, isn’t available for streaming yet so the distributor and left-wing entertainment reporters can’t blame home viewing for the embarrassingly low turnout.

    Call Jane | Official Trailer | In Theaters October 28

    https://youtu.be/U-1pUnTsSQc

    1. Other than abortion zealots, who would want to watch that? It’s not even good enough for the DVD bargain bin at WalMart.

    1. If anyone is going to a Halloween party that has Biden voters you really should find a way to play this.

      You would have exploding skulls.

  21. Bobby Gentry – Ode to Billy Joe

    https://youtu.be/nv33eaygVDQ

    It had three small rooms just another shanty anyways.
    She was out shopping houses with a realtor on a saturday.
    And at dinner time she signed a contract on a shack in suburban DC.
    The realtor hollered out the back door theres no need to stamp your feet.
    Then he said I got some news this morning from Rocket Mortgage.
    Today you’re deep in mortgage debt so go and jump from the nearest bridge.

    Astoria, OR Housing Prices Crater 31% YOY As Demand Tumbles And Prices Crumble

    https://www.movoto.com/astoria-or/market-trends/

  22. The Atlantic is globalist scum media.

    Townhall — The Atlantic Begs for COVID Amnesty for Liberals (10/31/2022):

    “In a new essay in The Atlantic, Emily Oster, an economist at Brown University, is calling for a “pandemic amnesty” for the disastrous response to COVID-19 because people were in the dark about it.

    Oster pointed to how in April 2020, her family took absurd prevention measures to prevent infection while hiking outside, like wearing cloth masks and staying away from people. She admits nothing they did would have worked. “But the thing is: We didn’t know.”

    It was because of the lack of knowledge, Oster said, that other draconian prevention measures seemed like a good idea at the time …

    We have to put these fights aside and declare a pandemic amnesty. We can leave out the willful purveyors of actual misinformation while forgiving the hard calls that people had no choice but to make with imperfect knowledge,” she continued. “Los Angeles County closed its beaches in summer 2020. Ex post facto, this makes no more sense than my family’s masked hiking trips. But we need to learn from our mistakes and then let them go.”

    The reason why there’s the sudden turn of wishing unvaccinated people to be treated as lepers to “please forgive and forget” is because many of those who cheered on the authoritarian response have been proven over and over to be wrong. They know they caused harm and struggle to large portions of the country, and it was all for nothing. While it is true we didn’t know much about the virus in March 2020, we understood a lot more by the summer, and yet, Democrats still pushed for lockdowns to continue.”

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/juliorosas/2022/10/31/now-the-atlantic-wants-covid-amnesty-for-what-we-did-and-said-n2615245

    No quarter given.

    The Day Of The Rope is coming…

    1. Oh no, @ProfEmilyOster
      . Many of us won’t ever forgive or forget. Especially when it comes to the seniors who died in nursing homes after leaders flooded their residences with covid patients and never told us or protected them. They knew better. We deserve justice first.

      https://twitter.com/JaniceDean/status/1587115494162702338

      Or how about the thousands who died in the US because hospitals were closed to dying people?

      ‘It was because of the lack of knowledge, Oster said’

      Which is why we’re gonna string up the censors in silicon valley, too.

      1. You know what Tim Pool tweeted after Musk bought it? Ivermectin. That perfectly sums up what we just went through. A medicine that had been around forever and they ripped a life saving medicine WORD from the internet and banned anyone who used it. Despicable. Oh by the way, where are the documentaries on all the people harmed by this and all the other therapeutics? It didn’t happen. Millions were helped by drugs that had been around for decades and these globalist scum ruined the lives (or tried to) of medical people who dared to go public. Hanging is too good for these animals, but maybe we can find a more appropriate justice.

        2. these globalist scum ruined the lives (or tried to) of medical people who dared to go public.

          My family bought into these scvms’ lies and I’ve been excommunicated because I wouldn’t get vaxxed. I’m not allowed to be near my aging aunts or to go to any family gatherings. That’s the kind of evil division these filthy scvm have sown.

    2. The Atlantic Begs for COVID Amnesty for Liberals

      They threatened people who refused the jab. They threatened to take their livelihoods from them and to refuse them healthcar if they were not jabbed.

      They are asking fir amnesty because they know that :died of suddenly” is off the scale and is probably going to guet worse. They will insist that they had no idea that conning and forcing people to receive and experimental jab could have such repercussions.

      1. We need to forgive one another for what we did and said when we were in the dark about COVID.

        Those of us who refused to play the charade did nothing wrong and need no forgiveness.

    3. “We can leave out the willful purveyors of actual misinformation”

      you mean the people who turned out to be right?

  23. Biden the @ssclown mouthpiece for the open border globalists is on teevee telling me how the evil oil companies are making too much money and what a great deal I’ve been getting due to his leadership as I am raped at the gas pumps filling the tanks of my boys so they can get to and from the jobs that for the time being we still have.

    FJB

    1. The Financial Times
      US Treasury bonds
      Investors urge US Treasury to boost bond market liquidity with buyback scheme
      Fed’s aggressive monetary policy has added to volatility in the normally boring $24tn market
      The US Treasury building in Washington, DC
      The Treasury department would need to ensure that any buyback programme is not seen to be in conflict with US Federal Reserve efforts to tighten monetary policy
      Kate Duguid in New York and Colby Smith in Washington yesterday

      US government bond investors are urging the Treasury department to intervene in the market, hoping for signals this week of possible buybacks after months of wild prices swings and poor liquidity.

      The Federal Reserve’s aggressive increases in interest rates and quantitative tightening programme this year have amplified the drama in the normally staid $24tn Treasury market. Investors want the Treasury to provide clues of its plans when it makes its fourth-quarter funding announcement in the coming days.

      Treasury yields, which determine the US government’s borrowing costs and are used as benchmarks for prices across asset classes, have gyrated wildly in 2022. The volatility has made it harder and more expensive for investors to buy or sell Treasury bonds in a market that is ostensibly the most liquid in the world.

      Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has said she is watching the situation closely. The Treasury department also asked primary dealers — banks that buy bonds directly from the Treasury — in a mid-October survey whether it should buy back older Treasury bonds, which are traded less frequently. The prospect of buybacks was first raised by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in an August report that highlighted the declining depth of the Treasury market, one measure of liquidity.

      After discussing the results of that survey with primary dealers last week, investors, strategists and primary dealers are expecting the Treasury to include some details in the documents it releases this week. The Treasury on Monday will announce its estimated financing needs for the fourth quarter and its issuance plans on Wednesday.

      The Treasury department declined to comment on the topic of buybacks.

      While buybacks are not expected to be announced yet, even the prospect of that intervention could help buoy a market in which liquidity has deteriorated to the worst levels since March 2020. An announcement could also shore up faith after the turmoil that engulfed UK financial markets, during which government yields rose more than 1 percentage point in a matter of days.

      “Buybacks will give the market confidence that there is a backstop if things get too cheap,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities, who expects buybacks to be officially announced in early 2023.

      “Buybacks would allow banks to get [bonds] off their balance sheet when there are no buyers and would allow them to use their balance sheet more efficiently.”
      …

      1. “The Treasury department would need to ensure that any buyback programme is not seen to be in conflict with US Federal Reserve efforts to tighten monetary policy”

        Like punching a hole in the hull of a boat while using a bucket to bail it out?

        I wonder if Congress would have to approve, and whether they would…

        1. They keep changing the rules. We need to execute these people – these filthy globalists who won’t allow the free market to work.

      2. Can’t help but wonder if this discussion is what recently set Wall Street on fire? Seems like creating a new government-sponsored interest rate buy down program might buoy the spirits of risk asset HODLers.

  27. Report: Twitter and Facebook Had Regular Meetings with DHS on Censoring Americans

    ALLUM BOKHARI
    31 Oct 2022

    Executives from Facebook and Twitter, including the recently-fired head of trust & safety Vijaya Gadde, held regular meetings with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to discuss censorship on a wide range of topics, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan, coronavirus, and “racial justice,” according to leaked documents.

    The information came to light via leaks to the Intercept, as well as documents and minutes revealed through Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt’s lawsuit filed against the Biden Administration that alleges government collusion with Big Tech to suppress Americans’ First Amendment rights.

    According to the material, DHS plans to target alleged misinformation around “the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines, racial justice, U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the nature of U.S. support to Ukraine.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2022/10/31/report-twitter-and-facebook-had-regular-meetings-with-dhs-on-censoring-americans/

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