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The False Sense That Real Estate Is A Readily Liquid Asset

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Whenever the housing market slows significantly, layoffs in the mortgage industry follow. And that’s what happened Tuesday at Radian Group Inc., a Wayne firm that sells mortgage insurance and provides other services in the residential real estate industry. Private mortgage insurance such as the policies Radian sells is designed to protect lenders from payment defaults when borrowers make a down payment of less than 20%. Defaults are on the rise, Radian reported: up 18% during the quarter on its portfolio of insured mortgages compared with a year ago.”

“Like other lenders, Rocket continues to experience a year-over-year plunge in mortgage volume, closing $114 billion in loans so far this year through the third quarter, compared with $275 billion for the same nine-month period last year. For the industry as a whole, there are likely more job cuts ahead, said Brian Brown, Rocket’s chief accounting officer. ‘The industry is flooded with loan officers who are struggling to produce,’ he said. ‘In fact, our estimate suggests that industry volume, per loan officer, is near an all-time low, at less than one loan per loan officer per month. The economics are simply unsustainable, and capacity in the industry will continue to come out,’ he added.”

“Yet some consumers are still refinancing. CEO Jay Farner said in response to an analyst’s question that Rocket is ‘doing quite a bit’ of cash-out refinancings, often for customers who intend to use the money to pay down other forms of debt. Industrywide, he estimated that about 90% of consumers who are currently doing a refinancing are ‘pulling some form of cash out when they do.'”

“Opendoor Technologies Inc. reported third-quarter losses that were steeper than expected, after the US housing slump led the company to sell homes for less than anticipated and pushed it to write down the value of its inventory. The results were worse than Opendoor predicted because the company decided to cut prices in a bid to sell homes faster, according to a letter to shareholders Thursday. Opendoor wrote down the value of its inventory by $573 million.”

“A cascade of layoffs and hiring freezes hit the San Francsico Bay Area tech industry this week, signaling continued pain for tech companies. Payment processing company Stripe reported some of the largest layoffs on Thursday, with Stripe CEO Patrick Collison announcing that 14% of the company’s workforce would be let go, leading to roughly 1,100 people losing their jobs, according to CNBC. The layoffs will primarily impact the company’s recruiting department, with Collison also stating Stripe will hire fewer people next year. Financial tech company Chime has also struggled in recent months, with the company this week announcing layoffs of 12% of its staff.”

“The market has been particularly hard on public real estate startups over the past few weeks. A recent analysis from Crunchbase indicated that companies such as Opendoor, WeWork and Compass have lost over $42B in value from their opening prices. In addition to layoffs, a glacial wind is pushing through the tech segment, as several companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, Amazon, Salesforce and Credit Karma have all announced hiring freezes for the foreseeable future.”

“Businesses in California are fleeing the state at a rapid pace amid skyrocketing taxes – and, according to new research, there is ‘no end in sight.’ The rate at which businesses are leaving California more than doubled in 2021 from the previous year, according to a new report from the Hoover Institute at Stanford University. ‘Another consequence will be the negative impact on the housing market,’ said Suparna Chakraborty, UCSF Professor of Economics. ‘We have seen this before during the dot com bust. If businesses leave our region, this will lead to a downward trend in the housing prices. Given that currently, average Bay Area homeowners have most of their equity tied to their house, this is going to have far-reaching consequences on household finances, which in turn, could further depress the economy.'”

“Even in Washington, D.C., which boasts a fairly stable real estate market, things are changing, says Nancy Miranda, a realtor with RE/MAX Allegiance. Though prices haven’t fallen significantly, ‘D.C. has shifted,’ she told the Washington Examiner Magazine. The region, including the nearby Maryland and Virginia suburbs, ‘has shifted into a negotiating market,’ Miranda said. ‘Buyers are able to negotiate repairs, closing help, free things.'”

“The market is taking a hit. Since June, sale prices of Raleigh homes have fallen 9% while they’ve dipped 4% in the combined Fuquay-Varina and Holly Springs market, the report noted. ‘How far house prices will fall? I don’t know,’ said John Wood, owner of Re/Max United in Cary, who has been an agent in the Triangle since 1988.”

“If you’ve been trying to buy a home in the Tampa Bay area, you’ve likely felt the pain of people paying for this price of paradise, but experts think home prices are leveling out. ‘In the last two years, it’s been like the gold rush,’ said Jess Rasemont, a realtor at Sellstate Legacy Realty. ‘Over the past four months, we’ve had a shift in the market. That shift really started mid-June,’ said Rasemont. ‘The market is now leveling out, so where prices were crazy, crazy high, they’re evening out and getting to something more manageable price-wise. We have homes that just aren’t moving because they have been priced probably by a seller and an agent that were looking at comparable sold houses from four months ago, and in a shifting market, you can’t go back in time that far.'”

“According to Redfin, in September 2021, more than half of Portland homes were going for over asking. Now, only about a third are going above the listing price. Samira Sahebi, a real estate broker with Windermere Realty Trust, says the market is starting to benefit buyers, despite higher interest rates. ‘We’re definitely seeing things that we weren’t seeing in the market previously,’ Sahebi said. One of the changes is more price cuts. Sahebi also says buyers are winning when it comes to bargaining. ‘This is the kind of market where you can offer below asking,’ Sahebi said. ‘We used to waive repairs, we used to compensate for appraisal gaps, and now we don’t have to do that, so we can ask for repairs and also we’re asking for credits.'”

“Michele Wood and her husband are ready to retire back home in Arkansas if they could just sell their home in Denton. ‘I was wishing we had done this in August because our house probably would’ve been sold by then,’ said Wood. Their three-bedroom, two-bath home has been on the market for 27 days. There have been some interested buyers, including two competing cash offers that came in under asking, but still no done deal. Realtor Joanne Condi, of Remax DFW Associates in Frisco, said North Texas’ red-hot housing market is cooling after a strong summer. ‘In places like Coppell, if I held an open house there, I’d have 30 couples lined up,’ said Condi.”

“These days, only a handful of prospective buyers show up for open houses. Home prices are dropping. ‘Krum, which is just north of here, has started to drop their prices,’ she said. ‘Frisco has also continued to drop their prices.’ Some sellers are also turning to concessions once again. ‘Keep your house ready at all times for when somebody says: I would like to come over,’ said Wood. ‘Absolutely! Come right over. I’m ready for ya.'”

“As homes sit stagnant on the Colorado Springs housing market, selling for prices lower than this summer, many property owners are deciding to rent out their homes, becoming what realtors are calling ‘accidental landlords.’ Drew Bartlett, a Business Development Manager for Dorman Real Estate, says the phenomenon happens when property owners are unable to get the selling price they hope for. ‘People who were debating if, ‘I’m going to sell or if I’m going to rent’ saying, well, I can’t get that huge number,’ said Bartlett. ‘So renting is probably a better investment option.'”

“Terri Arena received an offer for her home on Long Island, New York, well below asking price after it had been on the market for just six days. She told CBS News she is concerned that ‘there aren’t going to be as many people out there with the same buying power,’ but she’s not ready to drop the price. ‘That’s why I made that decision to put it on the market now, because if I wait until the spring, it definitely will be lower,’ Arena said. ‘So why not try now? Even though the interest rates came up.’ Arena’s broker, Eric Stutz, said that though prices are down, they are still much higher than before the pandemic. ‘I think it is still a great time to sell now,’ Stutz said. ‘But going forward, the market is definitely trending down and I expect home prices to continue to drop well into next year.'”

“Herman Cochrane is the owner of a home in Henderson. He has been trying to sell his house for about three months now, but they still haven’t been able to seal the deal. He says part of it is because of these interest rate spikes making it harder to sell. ‘I haven’t gotten one offer, not one single one,’ Cochrane said. Founder of New Home Experts, Jennifer Graff says Cochrane is not alone. She says as a result of the interest rate hikes, the number of homes on the market has gone up about 123% from this time last year, with about 8400 homes up for sale. ‘Interest rates are out of control, and something has to change, or else I don’t know what people are going to do,’ said Cochrane.”

“Cohen said properties in Greater Boston may stay on the market even longer than that this fall. ‘It’s a bit longer than that right now. That’s the kind of figure that lulls buyers and sellers alike into the false sense that real estate is a readily liquid asset. Depending on the market you’re in, it might not be.'”

“Toronto home prices dropped again in October, contributing to an 18-per cent decline in real estate values since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates earlier this year. Areas that experienced some of the sharpest price increases during the pandemic’s real estate boom are now losing value the fastest. That includes the Halton region, a wealthy area to the west of the city of Toronto, and Durham, which lies east of the city. Halton is down 23 per cent and Durham is off by 22 per cent. The recent deterioration in home prices in the Toronto region has wiped out gains made over the past year.”

“Norway’s central bank raised its key policy rate again on Thursday, amidst news that housing prices keep falling. ‘We haven’t had such a strong price decline in October since October 2008, the year of the finance crisis,’ said Eiendom Norge’s CEO Henning Lauridsen. State broadcaster NRK reported how one couple in Rana in Nordland has had their home on the market since June with no buyers yet. There’s also been a major decline in the market for holiday homes (hytter), with sales falling 28 percent during the third quarter.”

“Hytte-building and furnishing have become big business in outlying areas, but now some producers are cutting back and laying off workers. Newspaper Dagens Næringsliv (DN) reported that Tinde Hytter was laying off more than 50 employees including carpenters and administrative personnel, just a year after hiring more people at a large workshop in Vinstra. ‘The market is close to being dead,’ Audun Skattebo, CEO at Tinde Hytter, told local newspaper Gudbrandsdølen Dagningen (DG). ‘It’s a serious situation for our branch.'”

“It’s one minute to midnight for a huge proportion of Australian mortgage holders. Mortgage brokerage Aussie indicates more than half of mortgage holders expect to feel significant mortgage stress if the cash rate hits 3 per cent, a rate that is now just 15 basis points away. Money expert Effie Zahos said falling property prices meant some refinancers would face the additional cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). ‘This is an expense that no borrower wants to incur at the best of times, let alone when living costs are steep and interest rates are still rising,’ Ms Zahos said. She said those stuck in ‘mortgage prison’ could consider ‘downsizing’ their loan.”

“Aussie state broking manager Karen Sorrenti said it was important to be ahead of the game when it came to avoiding mortgage stress. ‘If you’ve avoided financial literacy, now is the time – it’s the gateway to managing – or better avoiding – financial distress,’ Ms Sorrenti said. ‘Do some calculations – be one step ahead on what you can afford for repayments and what amount would put you on the path to financial strain.'”

“The apartment absorption rate in Ho Chi Minh City was 15%, the lowest since 2019, while unsold inventories rose to a four-year high of 66% of primary supply, according to property consultancy Savills. Cushman & Wakefield said sales fell by half starting July, and the Vietnam Association of Realtors said property sales have been plunging this year. The shortage of capital is likely to continue throughout next year.”

“Huynh Phuoc Nghia, a senior executive at consultancy GIBC, said most Vietnamese investors seek short-term profits in the property market and long-term investors are rare. This means that when the market goes sideways or declines, people are quick to sell out as they lack the ability to hold on to their asset, he added. ‘Low demand and the lack of resources could push the property market into a long slump.'”

“The bottom has fallen out of the market for bonds from Chinese property developers. The dollar bond prices of real-estate companies in China have plummeted to new lows, with some trading below 10 cents on the dollar. The latest market setback came this week, after a midsize developer, CIFI Holdings Co., said Tuesday that it was suspending all payments on its offshore debt after failing to strike a deal with creditors. The Shanghai-based company said it was no longer in discussions with those creditors about debt repayments.”

“Its bonds have collapsed in the secondary market. A CIFI dollar bond that comes due in 2028 is bid at around 6 cents on the dollar, according to Traddeweb. The company’s shares lost a quarter of their value Tuesday, taking their year-to-date decline to 91%. ‘Everyone is scared,’ said Kenny Chung, portfolio manager of fixed-income hedge-fund manager Astera Capital Partners. He said that even though dollar bonds from Chinese property companies are cheap, ‘there is nothing positive to bet on yet.'”

“Foreign investors have lost billions of dollars on their investments in Chinese property bonds this year. Fidelity International’s Asian high-yield bond fund had a total return of minus 43% by the end of October, according to Morningstar. A similar fund managed by BlackRock Inc. had a total return of minus 34% over the same period. The two funds each have assets of around $1.6 billion.”

“Amid the downturn in China’s property sector, global investors have adopted a ‘sell first, think later’ mentality toward higher-yielding developers, said analysts and investors. In the past weeks, that approach has spread to stronger names. Nicholas Chen, an analyst at debt-research firm CreditSights, said there is a lot of uncertainty about the direction of the property sector, and few concrete developments in the debt restructurings being undertaken by distressed developers. ‘Market technical and investor fear are now the primary drivers of bond prices,’ he said.”

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Where Did The Risk Go?

Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington, MarketWatch. "Sales of newly-constructed homes swooned…

This Post Has 94 Comments

  1. ‘It’s a bit longer than that right now. That’s the kind of figure that lulls buyers and sellers alike into the false sense that real estate is a readily liquid asset. Depending on the market you’re in, it might not be’

    I looked and couldn’t find the rest of Cohen’s name or position.

    1. In an attempt to find out who “Cohen” is, I read the actual Boston Globe article with my $1.00 subscription….nope! Seems there are a few realtors here with that name. Poorly edited article, quite common these days.

      Lotsa folks here (including close relatives) high-fiving each other if they bought years ago and have a low mortgage. Bragging about what one’s property is worth or how much they made on said property sale is not considered rude or obnoxious, it’s encouraged and lauded. Boasting about their new airBnB and how much they are getting! I remarked to a relative at a recent family event how this did not happen in the neighborhood we grew up in. No one considered their house an “investment” or a way to Get Rich!!! Now real estate is a blood sport if you have the cohones to play (hear that, Mr. Cohen, whoever you are?)

      One such relative who bought a 2 family in a formerly gritty but now “desirable” blue collar town just rented a small 1 BR in a not_so_leafy section for $2,000 a month. That’s the market rent!…they crow with self-satisfied smugness. In my zip code the market rent (I’m told) for a 1BR is between $2500-3000.

      I’m not in the highly esteemed “owner” club so I slink away with my tail between my legs, not bragging about my way below market rent while keeping my powder dry and fingers crossed.

      1. Lots of greed. It’s societal collapse. Just wait until the shtf and these people need something and start begging.

      2. “If you’ve been trying to buy a home in the Tampa Bay area, you’ve likely felt the pain of people paying for this price of paradise, but experts think home prices are leveling out…”

        “[P]rice of paradise” my a$$! The only people who think Tampa Bay is paradise are the rich people who don’t have to spend all day working to make a living.

  2. ‘People who were debating if, ‘I’m going to sell or if I’m going to rent’ saying, well, I can’t get that huge number,’ said Bartlett. ‘So renting is probably a better investment option’

    ‘Terri Arena received an offer for her home on Long Island, New York, well below asking price after it had been on the market for just six days. She told CBS News she is concerned that ‘there aren’t going to be as many people out there with the same buying power,’ but she’s not ready to drop the price. ‘That’s why I made that decision to put it on the market now, because if I wait until the spring, it definitely will be lower’

    Drew, Terri, yer doing the right thing. Holder yer ground, don’t give it away!

  3. ‘Sahebi also says buyers are winning when it comes to bargaining. ‘This is the kind of market where you can offer below asking’

    That’s the spirit Samira, kick em while they’re down!

    1. I owe nothing. I can’t imagine going to bed at night knowing I had thousands upon thousands of dollars due every 31 days for 3 decades.

  5. ‘Fidelity International’s Asian high-yield bond fund had a total return of minus 43% by the end of October, according to Morningstar. A similar fund managed by BlackRock Inc. had a total return of minus 34% over the same period’

    This was supposedly the redhotest of all trades for well over a decade. You’ll own nothing and like it blackturd.

    ‘it was suspending all payments on its offshore debt after failing to strike a deal with creditors. The Shanghai-based company said it was no longer in discussions with those creditors about debt repayments’

    The article reminds us this was one of the ‘model’ criminal enterprises in China. Now they won’t even pick up the phone. Turn those machines back on!

  6. ‘Private mortgage insurance such as the policies Radian sells is designed to protect lenders from payment defaults when borrowers make a down payment of less than 20%. Defaults are on the rise, Radian reported: up 18% during the quarter on its portfolio of insured mortgages’

    There’s yer subprime and it’s sinking like a turd in a well.

  7. ‘We have seen this before during the dot com bust. If businesses leave our region, this will lead to a downward trend in the housing prices. Given that currently, average Bay Area homeowners have most of their equity tied to their house, this is going to have far-reaching consequences on household finances’

    This is going to be way worse than dotbomb. How many of those ‘unicorns’ and money losing concept stocks were frittering away cash like it was cocaine on a wall street desk?

    1. The Dot Bomb Era was BEFORE Moore’s Law started to … unwind. PEAK MOORE’S LAW is WELL behind us.

      Is it actually about to go into REVERSE???

      I fear that DARPA Valley’s best days are BEHIND it.

      da bear

  8. ‘Rocket is ‘doing quite a bit’ of cash-out refinancings, often for customers who intend to use the money to pay down other forms of debt. Industrywide, he estimated that about 90% of consumers who are currently doing a refinancing are ‘pulling some form of cash out when they do’

    Just remember to leave the coffee makers and ficus trees when you turn off the lights Jay.

  9. ‘In places like Coppell, if I held an open house there, I’d have 30 couples lined up’

    Winnahs!

    ‘These days, only a handful of prospective buyers show up for open houses. Home prices are dropping. ‘Krum, which is just north of here, has started to drop their prices,’ she said. ‘Frisco has also continued to drop their prices.’ Some sellers are also turning to concessions once again. ‘Keep your house ready at all times for when somebody says: I would like to come over,’ said Wood. ‘Absolutely! Come right over. I’m ready for ya’

    I had never heard of Krum til a few days ago. I’ve been saying this about DFW: a huge amount of shacks are in places that didn’t exist except as a truck stop until a few years ago. You can’t really look back to 2005 or even the 80’s crater as a guide because the market has exploded in size. And these north of Dallas crap shacks are at California prices.

  10. Biden’s chief of staff, Ron Klain – the power behind the throne in this globalist puppet regime – has given the peasants “one final warning” about their heresy of disputing globalist-dictated Narratives. Now that the Democrat-Bolsheviks have established the precedent of Stalinist show trials against “insurrectionists” and weaponized our corrupt, captured DoJ and FBI against political opponents, Comrade Klain’s “ominous message” is not an idle threat. Forward, Soviet!

    Biden’s speech was ‘one final WARNING’: Chief of Staff Ron Klain’s gives ominous message to voters after President’s ‘dark forces’ message last night – yet STILL insists inflation is the White House’s top concern

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11386809/Bidens-Chief-Staff-says-speech-night-one-final-warning-voters.html

    1. “White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain said President Biden’s ‘dark forces’ speech was ‘one final warning’ to voters about election deniers and MAGA Republicans before next Tuesday’s midterms.”

      “I Will Not Go Quietly”

      https://youtu.be/AjFP7xH9XLA

  11. ‘The recent deterioration in home prices in the Toronto region has wiped out gains made over the past year’

    It’s way worser than that. I’ve learned from the videos these igloo clusters are off 20% or more – year over year. We keep reading ‘the biggest craters are where it was the red hottest during CCP virus!’ I think the thing to watch is will the entire CCP virus boom be wiped out? I said in 2021 IIRC that these prices would not hold and it sure looks that way. If that happens, it’ll be way worser than the 2000’s. You fooked up Jerry, Tiff.

  12. Ever since I began self-identifying as a Yemeni lesbian, a huge burden of white guilt has been lifted from my slender girlish shoulders. But because I still LOOK like a tall, well-built white man, I fear I could still be caught up with the rest of you dangerous corn-fed white male Enemies of the State (shudders with mandatory involuntary revulsion) once the Black Maria vans start rounding up the Bitter Clingers for their one-way trip to the gulag.

    California professor and ex-CIA staffer claims that ‘Christian, white men’ are primed to start a civil war in America because they ‘were once dominant and are in decline’ – and blames the right for spike in violent extremism

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11385903/Ex-CIA-staffer-claims-Christian-white-men-primed-start-civil-war-America.html

    1. “Walter then explained that she felt white Christian men felt their power was waning, and had been behind extremist violence in the US for the past 14 years.”

      Why doesn’t Brandon sign legislation declaring the Republican party a terrorist organization under the guise of “protecting democracy?”

    1. If you ever wonder if things could be worse, just look to the UK. That -30% “worst case” number is likely based of mortgages resetting from 2-3% to 7-8%, and mortgagees will see their monthly payments skyrocket, along with their grocery and heating bills.

      Meanwhile, their gooberment is housing illegal boat people who cross the channel from France in 4 and 5 star hotels. And most of the boat people are members of the Albanian mafia.

      And that’s with a “conservative” government. If Labor were to take over they would probably fly those people into Britain directly from Albania.

    2. The tricky detail is reconciling the reality of large real housing price declines with the money illusion of inflation.

  14. King Obama, who has amassed a huge fortune thanks to payola for services rendered to Wall Street during his “public service,” gets called out by an ungrateful peasant.

    Obama confronts HECKLER who shouted ‘like you’ when he said Republicans want an ‘economy that’s very good for folks at the very top, but not so good for ordinary people’ in speech warning ‘democracy as we know it’ may die

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11385989/Obama-confronts-heckler-Arizona-rally-Democrats.html

    1. ‘If you’ve got election deniers serving as your governor, as your senator, as your secretary of state, as your attorney general, then democracy as we know it may not survive in Arizona,’ Obama said. ‘That’s not an exaggeration. That is a fact’

      If they win the election, democracy may not survive? And you wonder why yer getting yer a$$ kicked obammie? Go back to martha’s privilege.

    1. For the Democrat-Bolsheviks, it’s all about “messaging” and “perception management.” DNC, you’re gonna have to pull off voter fraud on a scale that dwarfs what you pulled off in 2020 if you’re going to avert an electoral wipeout as punishment for your epic incompetence and craven malgovernance.

    2. in an effort to bail out a party he says is being “destroyed on messaging.”

      When the message is loud and clear that the Dems hate Americans and America and will do everything we can to make Americans suffer, then maybe the Dems are having a blowout case of hubris.

      My only regret is that we aren’t replacing every single RINO in the process with a MAGA patriot, though it was very sweet to see Liz Cheney sent packing by the good people of Wyoming.

    3. Luckily for Nuisance, most embattled California Republicans have left the state for saner sureoundings.

  19. BREAKING: Senior Election Official In Milwaukee FIRED For Exposing Absentee Ballot Fraud, May Face Criminal Charges

    https://100percentfedup.com/breaking-senior-election-official-in-milwaukee-fired-for-exposing-how-easy-it-is-to-committee-absentee-ballot-fraud-may-face-criminal-charges/

    Republican politicians and activists have long expressed concerns about absentee voting after showing that the current process for requesting and verifying absentee ballots is ripe for abuse and fraud.

    One election official in Milwaukee was fired and may face criminal charges for showing how easy it is to obtain absentee ballots fraudulently.

    1. Nothing like insulting your viewers to make them go away.

      Of course these shows, much like the late night talk shows, are propaganda outlets and are not dependent on ratings.

      1. Nothing like insulting your viewers to make them go away.
        The “rich” white suburban women I know would probably agree with her. It boggles the mind in many respects, especially those that have sons.

  25. A reader sent these in:

    Rental near me: $2,000/mo for half a duplex and property is slow to lease. Buyer paid $540,000 a year ago for the property and spent money on renovations. Does this end well?

    https://twitter.com/StIroningShirts/status/1588133435750612992

    US 30 YEAR MORTGAGE RATES HIT 7.30% HIGHEST SINCE 2000

    https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1588310939593740288

    CarDealershipGuy

    Fascinating chart showing % of residents paying over $1,000/month for their cars. Fun fact: More than 1 in 5 shoppers in Texas and Wyoming committed to a monthly payment over $1,000/mth in Q3 (driven by purchases of large trucks)

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1588176922311241729

    Mortgage demand has dropped to its lowest in 25 years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1588140685407838209

    The gap between 2-year & 10-year Treasury yields is the most inverted, the most negative, since the early 1980s.

    https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1588149520759668737

    Layoffs announced in the last day:
    – Lyft 13% of workers
    – Opendoor 18%
    – Stripe 14%
    – Chime 12%
    – Twitter 50%
    – Morgan Stanley (% unknown)

    https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1588225728503504899

    BofA which begged for unlimited QE and got saved by taxpayers in 08 is now begging the Fed for a pause in rate hikes.

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1588233504785108997

    Translation: Depression incoming … Hmmm what! 🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1588249449499090944

    UK is now officially EM. £ is collapsing as political volatility is followed by fiscal f*ck-ups, followed by bond market collapse, followed by totally flawed monetary policy guidance… £ is officially a sh*tcoin

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1588167251878117378

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    A friendly reminder for JOLTS architects @ChallengerGray
    “Construction sector announced significant cuts in Oct w/2,177 making up bulk of 3,983 cuts announced in 2022. Real Estate announced 7,206 cuts so far this year up 564% from 1,085 announced through Oct 2021”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1588114169416585216

    Spoke with a gentleman who works for a prominent real estate shop & he told me he expects starts to be down over 50% in ‘23. Wasn’t surprised to hear they are expected to fall but was surprised by magnitude of decrease.

    https://twitter.com/ArturoVandelayI/status/1588116214060126209

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Welcome to the reality of the Lone Star states that house investors have swarmed in the last few years. Per @InvitationHomes missed its Funds from Operations “entirely due to higher than anticipated property taxes in the state of Texas.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1588332534223732737

    ECB’S LAGARDE SAYS WE HAVE TOOLS

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1588241241132580865

    1. That’s ok if it’s a business deduction and use the car/truck for work, otherwise, i have no sympathy, my car has been paid off for years and i still have safe drivers and multiple discounts

      More than 1 in 5 shoppers in Texas and Wyoming committed to a monthly payment over $1,000/mth

    3. Fun fact: More than 1 in 5 shoppers in Texas and Wyoming committed to a monthly payment over $1,000/mth in Q3 (driven by purchases of large trucks)

      This is absolute insanity, and I don’t know who these people are.

    1. “Twitter layoffs are set to start as early as Friday”

      Great news. I’ll be looking for video clips this evening of former employees walking out the front door with a box in hand.

      1. walking out the front door with a box in hand

        I believe everyone was sent home last night and told to wait for news.

      1. CA’s “WARN” law requires Twitter to give employees 60 days notice of a massive layoff. A layoff of 50+ employees within a 30 day period qualifies.

        2. What I have observed is that the WARN period gets blended with severance. I’m sure that the twitterati’s severance will be reduced by 60 days.

        1. BREAKING: Twitter’s content ‘curation’ team’ axed amid mass layoffs

          Twitter’s “Curation” team, the group responsible for highlighting event on Twitter, has been fired, employees say.
          “Here’s to the past and present Curation Tweeps I’ve had the absolute pleasure of working with for the past 18 months,” said Laura Savvas of Twitter.

          According to Twitter’s description, the curation team is “responsible for highlighting and contextualizing the best events and stories that unfold on Twitter.”

          “Our work, across multiple product surfaces, including Topics, Trends descriptions, and Moments, makes it easy for customers to experience only-on-Twitter conversations and get the most out of the platform, regardless of which accounts they follow,” the description continues.

          “We manually monitor Trends and work to add context to help answer the question, ‘Why is this trending?’ We do this by attaching a representative Tweet to the Trend, adding a title and description, or curating a Moment to give more direct context. We may also add a combination of these.”

          The team was also responsible for “topics” that they say helped users find “relevant” info.

          Musk has also made it clear that he would be ending Twitter’s work-from-home policies. “Twitter has had a massive drop in revenue, due to activist groups pressuring advertisers, even though nothing has changed with content moderation and we did everything we could to appease the activists,” said Elon Musk on Twitter. “Extremely messed up! They’re trying to destroy free speech in America.”

          https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-twitters-content-curation-team-axed-amid-mass-layoffs

          This was embedded in the article:

          Tim Pool

          TWITTER EMPLOYEES ARE LOCKED OUT

          QUICK

          SAY NAUGHTY WORDS

          GROOMER
          9:26 AM · Nov 4, 2022

          https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/1588538141212045312

          1. Twitter’s content ‘curation’ team’ axed amid mass layoffs

            A bunch without any marketable skills.

        1. He saddled Twitter with more debt than it’s worth because of his 420 fixation. His 69 fixation would have been far more costly.

    1. “Avon to build new world-class Research & Development operations in Brazil and Poland”

      As a result, the company will be closing its Research & Development operations in Suffern, New York.

  29. Boise’s Real Estate Market November 2022 – Housing Market Shift – Great Time to Buy a NEW Home?
    Living in Meridian, Idaho – Andy Ellison
    Nov 3, 2022
    Wondering what’s happening in Boise’s local real estate market? Curious if the housing market in Boise is shifting? Is it still a good time to sell? Here’s my quick update! So much is happening across Boise, Meridian, Eagle & the Treasure Valley’s surrounding area!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKTc7r9PxTs

    1:51.

  30. ‘Interest rates are out of control, and something has to change, or else I don’t know what people are going to do,’ said Cochrane.”

    Something has to change…what people have to do is lower the price to whatever FMV they’re chasing down.

    1. “Interest rates are out of control, and something has to change, or else I don’t know what people are going to do,” said Cochrane.

      Confess Herman, you don’t care about “other people.” It’s all about your perceived equity, and you’re looking for a falling knife catcher.

        1. I don’t know what people are going to do
          Perhaps, get some boxes. I usually get free boxes from the state liquor stores when I move.

          1. state liquor stores

            What state are you in? I vaguely remember going to one when I was attending law school in Boston. I’m not sure which state (NH? VT?) as they’re so close together to a Californian.

    1. Saint Augustine Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 11%
      A friend of mine Mom’s was an office manager for a UHS broker and she told me last May that people buying the upscale homes in North Florida were going to get their butts handed to them. Looks like she will be right. I suspect the UHS themselves knew it as well but there was no way in he$$ there were saying it aloud outside the office.

  33. ‘How far house prices will fall? I don’t know,’ said John Wood, owner of Re/Max United in Cary, who has been an agent in the Triangle since 1988.”

    A relitter telling the truth? What is going on!?

    1. Is it any wonder they’re asking for Pandemic Amnesty?

      ‘The Ingraham Angle’ on COVID lockdown proponents asking for amnesty

      Published November 3, 2022 8:33am EDT

      INGRAHAM: Right in the Atlantic Brown University economist Emily Oster argues that we need to let bygones be bygones on the COVID debate and not relitigate the past. We have to put these fights aside and declare a pandemic amnesty, forgiving the hard calls that people had no choice but to make with imperfect knowledge. LA County closed its beaches in the summer of 2020. And ex post facto, this makes no sense. But we need to learn from our mistakes, and then let them go.

      Nice try. But no way. First off, there is little sign that those responsible for the disastrous decisions actually learn much, if anything at all. Where were the Mea culpa from the shutdown fanatics like Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx. First, they gave horrendous advice to Donald Trump, that led to his decision to shut down the entire country. This never should have happened. It did enormous damage to our children, our economy, our constitutional rights, and the American psyche that we’re still seeing play out today. Almost everything they advocated, other than maybe washing your hands and covering your face when you sneeze was wrong, like this.

      https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/ingraham-angle-covid-lockdown-proponents-asking-amnesty

      1. But we need to learn from our mistakes, and then let them go.

        More appropriate to learn from your mistakes and let you go, so to speak.

  37. “Like other lenders, Rocket continues to experience a year-over-year plunge in mortgage volume, closing $114 billion in loans so far this year through the third quarter, compared with $275 billion for the same nine-month period last year. ”

    Sounds like the Rocket is nose diving into the CR8R.

  38. ‘Interest rates are out of control, and something has to change, or else I don’t know what people are going to do,’

    Something is going to change alright. Interest rates are going to keep going higher and higher as the Fed chases up runaway inflation.

  39. “In addition to layoffs, a glacial wind is pushing through the tech segment, as several companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, Amazon, Salesforce and Credit Karma have all announced hiring freezes for the foreseeable future.”

    Sounds ominous.

  40. “The results were worse than Opendoor predicted because the company decided to cut prices in a bid to sell homes faster, according to a letter to shareholders Thursday. Opendoor wrote down the value of its inventory by $573 million.”

    The optics suggest they shot themselves in the foot.

    But the reality is that while their decision to cut prices and dump inventory may protect them against future losses, it likely had little practical effect on market values. It’s high interest rates killing demand that is driving market values into the CR8R, not the decision of a few iBuyers of whether to cut and run, or hide losses by refusing to drop prices to a level where they can clear out their devalued inventory.

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