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Obviously FOMO’d In And Wearing The Consequences Of That

A report from KVVU in Nevada. “Homeowners throughout the Las Vegas Valley in brand new homes say they’re dealing with ongoing problems that range from small to major. Doug and Sue Perns moved into their new home in September of 2021. The former Metro officer and teacher lived in Henderson for over 30 years. This is their retirement home. Three months living in their home they noticed a small crack above the kitchen counter. ‘So that was from mid-December until now and it’s approximately 35 feet if not more long,’ Doug Perns said. ‘We paid a lot of money for this house and it’s just very upsetting- we have yet to have a house warming party here because we’re embarrassed, we’re embarrassed to have people come into this house knowing what we paid and see a crack from the kitchen all the way to the family room.'”

The Mankato Free Press in Minnesota. “‘It’s definitely caused some people to pause a bit,’ says Habib Sadaka of CrossCountry Mortgage in Mankato. ‘But I do believe that the rise in rates is going to be temporary.’ That average home price in Mankato during October sales was $380,930, according to figures compiled by Sonja Zoet of The Zoet Group/True Real Estate. That’s down from a March high of $463,860. Even if one is stuck with a high mortgage interest rate, he believes today’s homebuyers should have the ability to refinance in the not-to-distant future. ‘Things are changing very rapidly,’ Sadaka said. ‘It’s definitely softening up a bit though.'”

KUTV in Utah. “‘Home prices along the Wasatch Front are falling as mortgage interest rates continue to rise. New data from the Salt Lake Board of Realtors show the median sales price for a single-family home in Salt Lake County was $590,000 during July, August, and September. That’s below the peak price of $637,000 that was recorded during April, May, and June. The challenging market was evident in the number of single-family home sales in Salt Lake County during the third quarter, which was down 30 percent compared to the previous year. Other counties along the Wasatch Front also saw declines in home sales.”

“‘Active listings are taking roughly a month to sell instead of a week. The good news for buyers is that sellers are offering more concessions. There are more houses to choose from in the process and it is much easier to get a home under contract,’ said Dejan Eskic, chief economist for the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. ‘Home buyers are also negotiating home repairs and asking sellers to pay for home warranties,’ the Salt Lake Board of Realtors said.”

The Business Times in Colorado. “Real estate activity continues to slow in Mesa County. Annette Young, the administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. who’s long tracked the market, said local trends are similar to what’s happening elsewhere. ‘I think it’s kind of expected when you see what’s going on at a national level.’ Property foreclosure activity continues to increase in Mesa County, Young said. Through the first 10 months of 2022, 208 foreclosure filings and 41 sales were reported. That contrasts with 22 filings and 18 sales for the same period in 2021. Foreclosure activity has increased in part because forbearance measures are no longer in place. But activity hasn’t yet reached a worrisome level, she said.”

The Baltimore Banner in Maryland. “ABC Capital, which has been selling distressed real estate in Baltimore to foreign and out-of-state investors, has been hit with three new federal lawsuits in Pennsylvania alleging they are running a Ponzi scheme. A fourth lawsuit was filed in Baltimore Circuit Court by an Oregon investor who helped ABC Capital fund purchases and says he was not paid back. ABC Capital, which since 2016 has sold investors on a ‘hands-off’ income-producing process in which the company and affiliates will acquire Baltimore properties and rehab and manage them as rental properties. But many say promised repairs didn’t take place, properties sit empty and guaranteed rent payments weren’t made.”

“One of the new federal lawsuits was brought by investor Ricardo Oved, who is said to be based in Miami and invested more than $3.3 million to purchase 25 properties, 18 of which are in Baltimore. Oved said he discovered last year that ABC had failed to make any renovations to 20 properties and ‘absconded’ with $1.24 million earmarked for such renovations. In another suit, the buyer said they spent $94,700 for the purchase and renovation of 1200 N. Milton Ave., but the title was never even transferred and the renovation has not taken place, according to the lawsuit and property records.”

Bisnow New York. “New York Attorney General Letitia James is taking action against a Brooklyn developer she says swindled millions from families by taking money for condominiums that don’t exist. Xi Hui ‘Steven’ Wu filed an offering plan for a 25-unit condo building in Bay Ridge, but the AG’s office said in a lawsuit Wu never put in the correct paperwork, meaning the property never achieved condo status with separate tax lots and deeds to be transferred over to buyers, The Real Deal reports. Wu still sold those nonexistent condos, mainly to Chinese immigrant families, some of whom put in their life savings. In total he took in some $5M from the sale and fake mortgage payments and building fees, per James’ office.”

“Those funds went into Wu’s personal expenses, rather than an escrow account. ‘Steven Wu took advantage of hardworking immigrants and sold them and their families a lie,’ said James. ‘He earned their trust as a pillar of the community only to exploit it and steal their life’s savings. These families were cheated out of their livelihoods, so we’re taking action to ensure they get their money back.'”

Bisnow Washington DC. “In times of turmoil, the Washington, D.C., office market has often counted on the federal government as a countercyclical force, increasing its footprint to accommodate massive spending packages. But despite the passage of three major spending bills over the last year and the potential political shakeup from next week’s midterm elections, experts don’t foresee the federal government growing its office footprint. The disconnect between spending and leasing could hardly come at a worse time for downtown D.C.”

“An estimated 30% of the total workforce in D.C., roughly 245,000 employees, work for the federal government, and most have their offices in the District, said Transwestern Managing Director Lucy Kitchin, who leads the firm’s D.C.-based Government Services group. ‘Anyone who deals with federal real estate or pays attention to it is hearing the constant refrain of reduction, reduction, reduction,’ Kitchin said. ‘There’s a sense there’s been a disproportionate amount of federally leased space empty in D.C. versus the rest of the market.'”

From CNBC. “According to Elizabeth Ptacek, senior director of market analytics at commercial real estate information and analytics company CoStar, there is currently 232 million square feet of surplus commercial real estate up for sub-leasing. To put those numbers into perspective, Amazon’s HQ2 is 8 million square feet. Even more telling, the 232 million square feet is twice the level of surplus from before the pandemic.”

“The only property owners selling today are either desperate for cash or they are sitting on trophy assets. And those trophy assets are few and far between. Well-leased medical offices and laboratories with high credit score tenants and secure income streams are still attracting plenty of attention from investors, according to CoStar, but that’s about it. Any corporation that has abandoned a satellite office that used to be key for its in-office staff, is sitting on a property that Ptacek says, ‘no one will buy for anything less than a substantial discount.'”

“Uncertainty is the ultimate deal killer, she said. No one wants to buy assets with the risk of no demand barring rent cuts of 50%. It’s difficult right now, she said, for either buyer or seller to reach what would be defined as a ‘reasonable price.’ Companies should expect the situation may be even worse a year from now. ‘It’s probably a fair assumption that this is not going to be a lot better in a year, in terms of demand,’ she said. ‘There could be another leg down in transactions.’ ‘As loans come due and they have difficulty, it’s refinance or sell,’ she said. And more borrowers won’t be able to refinance, and the wave of distressed sales will ensue.”

From CBC News in Canada. “After drastic influxes in the market during the worst of the pandemic, the real estate market in Waterloo region is “going back into a more balanced state” mainly due to rising interest rates, says a local expert. ‘I would regard it as balanced,’ said Paul Anglin, a real estate professor at the University of Guelph. ‘It’s not favoring the sellers as was true a year ago.’ The sales price on average for a single family home in October of this year was about $860,500, which is down by about 27 per cent from the height of the market back in February. Condos have seen a drop too but not as significant —  last month the sales average was about $488,200, down 14.5 per cent from February.”

“Anglin offers advice to both buyers and sellers: ‘For now, buyers and sellers have to make their best decision given the available information,’ he said. ‘For sellers, there is always the possibility of regret but, again, if you like where you live now, then enjoy living there. In both cases, you need to accept the risk, since life offers few guarantees.'”

Frontier Myanmar. “When Ma Kyi Kyi Lwin inherited K50 million from her late parents last year, she debated whether to invest it or deposit it in her bank account, but amid the economic uncertainty of post-coup Myanmar, the latter option made her uneasy.  She decided her safest option was to invest in real estate. ‘Investing in houses and land is more secure than putting money in a bank account, so I bought an apartment in North Dagon,’ she said. By then, real estate prices were already surging. The 400 square foot fifth-floor apartment she bought in a housing estate in the township would have sold for about K16 million in 2020, Kyi Kyi Lwin said, but she bought it for K26 million.”

“‘Prices are going up everywhere. The demand is so high,’ said Ma Zune Pwint*, a real estate agent in Yangon’s downtown Lanmadaw Township. She said a 15-by-60-foot apartment in Lanmadaw valued at about K10 million before the coup would fetch nearly K30 million today. ‘Prices have risen at least two-fold, it’s abnormal.'”

“Ko Hein, the real estate agent in Shwepyithar, said the increase in the number of brokers, and more speculative practices, are pushing up prices even more. For example, he said a group of brokers bought a house in Shwepyithar in September for K35 million and sold it a week later for K45 million. ‘I fear the prices,’ Ko Hein said. He worries the bubble could burst and prices could collapse, leaving ordinary people who invested in real estate to avoid losing their life’s savings with less valuable plots of land.”

“Kyaw Min, the former bank official, said people putting money away in real estate can also have knock-on effects elsewhere in the economy. ‘When the money doesn’t flow to the bank, it will not flow to the businesses. So small and medium enterprises find it hard to get money, which slows down the country’s economic development,’ he said. Kyaw Min said eventually prices will peak and fall back down again. ‘At that point, people who bought at high prices will suffer and lose their money,’ he said, adding that only ‘speculators and brokers’ will benefit.”

Australia Women‘s Weekly. “Fans and contestants alike were shocked by The Block 2022 auction results. But no one was more furious than host Scott Cam who revealed he almost lost his voice from ‘screaming’ at the real estate agents.The Block host revealed on the Today show that he ‘wore’ out his voice from yelling. ‘I did a lot of shouting at real estate agents yesterday; I got a little bit cranky at times,’ he said. ‘I do shout at them down the phone – I have to ring them because they’re miles away at the houses, and I’m screaming at them.'”

“Meanwhile Tom and Sarah-Jane were extremely emotional after their shocking profit. ‘I’m not even miserable. I’m gobsmacked,’ Tom said. ‘I didn’t expect to make a sh-tload of money, but I didn’t expect to come out at a massive loss too. It’s the way the cookie crumbles. I can’t change it. Just go to roll with it.’ Following the auction, the pair revealed they would have to sell their $80,000 Ford Ranger they won during Landscape Week after spending ‘more than $20,000 of our savings’ to participate in the renovation series.”

Stuff New Zealand. “You don’t have to look far at the moment for stories of recent first-home buyers with major financial worries. On Reddit at the weekend, one buyer who purchased in 2021 said they were worried about what might lie ahead for their home loan of $1.4 million. Even though they had a household income of $250,000, the prospect of their 3.45% interest rate turning into 7% or more was a scary one. ‘As far as I can tell, [I] am not in a position to sell without still owing the bank,’ the person wrote.”

“‘While [I] know am in a privileged position it is taking a huge toll on my mental health, especially seeing other fellow FHB and close friends cheer the property price falls on. Obviously FOMO’d in and wearing the consequences of that, it feels like a weekly drip of bad news on bad news.'”

“Mortgage adviser Glen McLeod says there’s no magic solution, so the first thing most people need to do is work out what their repayments are going to increase to when they refix, and how their household budgets could be tweaked to cope with that. ‘At the end of the day I think we’re going to see a lot of this over the next couple of years – it’ll only get worse before it gets better.'”

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This Post Has 96 Comments

  1. ‘it is taking a huge toll on my mental health, especially seeing other fellow FHB and close friends cheer the property price falls on’

    That’s the spirit!

    2. “it is taking a huge toll on my mental health”

      … cluck cluck….cluckety cluck.🤣

      Can’t lose what you never had.

  2. ‘I’m not even miserable. I’m gobsmacked,’ Tom said. ‘I didn’t expect to make a sh-tload of money, but I didn’t expect to come out at a massive loss too. It’s the way the cookie crumbles. I can’t change it. Just go to roll with it’

    That’s right Tom, roll with it.

    Acceptance <- You are here.

  3. ‘Anyone who deals with federal real estate or pays attention to it is hearing the constant refrain of reduction, reduction, reduction’

    ‘no one will buy for anything less than a substantial discount’

    How do those 5% cap rates look now?

  4. ‘the median sales price for a single-family home in Salt Lake County was $590,000 during July, August, and September. That’s below the peak price of $637,000 that was recorded during April, May, and June’

    ‘The good news for buyers is that sellers are offering more concessions…Home buyers are also negotiating home repairs and asking sellers to pay for home warranties’

    So the real price is a lot lower than the median.

    1. You also should consider rampant inflation in figuring out the real price. Selling for the same amount you paid last year is a massive loss in real terms after reflecting inflation and transaction costs.

  5. ‘That average home price in Mankato during October sales was $380,930…That’s down from a March high of $463,860’

    The numbers from these little sh$tholes is looking more like all these CCP virus gains are going poof in a big way.

    ‘Property foreclosure activity continues to increase in Mesa County, Young said. Through the first 10 months of 2022, 208 foreclosure filings and 41 sales were reported. That contrasts with 22 filings and 18 sales for the same period in 2021’

    1. “Even if one is stuck with a high mortgage interest rate, he believes today’s homebuyers should have the ability to refinance in the not-to-distant future.”

      No, sorry pal. That ain’t how it works. So many realtors are selling this hard. Even if rates were to fall back down in the near future (not gonna happen), if your home has decreased in value even 5% you may no longer qualify for a conventional rate-and-term refi. Once values start dropping most of these folks that bought in the last year or less are going to be underwater, beyond 100% loan to value. So unless they have huge chunks of money (they don’t) to pay down their loan balance they are stuck with the loan they got. No refi for you!!

  7. Is hoping for the US to avoid a 2023 recession a case of whistling during a stroll through the graveyard?

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion US economy
      Economists see recession coming, so maybe it’s not
      Markets have a better record at predicting downturns — but sometimes the inevitable never happens
      A woman with a shopping trolley inspects the frozen goods at a supermarket
      America’s economy still seems far away from recession territory
      Ruchir Sharma yesterday
      The writer is chair of Rockefeller International

      Economists tend to think in small incremental steps, missing big turns in the story, which helps explain why their consensus view had not forecast a single US recession since records began in 1970 — until now.

      For the first time, economists as a group not only expect a recession in America in the next year, but give it a very high probability, more than 60 per cent. Given their record, it’s worth asking whether the consensus is, in fact, unlikely.

      With inflation at four-decade highs and central banks raising rates aggressively and in a way that has seldom been so well telegraphed, a recession does seem inevitable. Still, as John Maynard Keynes once warned, “the inevitable never happens and the unexpected constantly occurs.”

      The case for the unexpected scenario — no recession in the coming months — would start with inflation declining rapidly. That would allow the Fed to back off from further tightening. Just when the consensus has come to accept that inflation will be higher for longer, and not “transitory” as previously assumed, the easing of supply chain bottlenecks could lower inflation faster than expected.

      The signs include cargo shipping prices plummeting, delays at ports shortening and the Fed’s “supply chain pressure index” coming down sharply. China’s economy is in a funk and is exporting slower inflation to the rest of the world. Goods inflation is decelerating with prices for everything from used cars to energy now in decline.

      Many still assume that because an unusually tight labour market is driving up wages at a rapid pace, the Fed will have to act as it did in the early 1980s under Paul Volcker — raising rates aggressively and averting an inflationary wage-price spiral by inducing a recession.

      But for now America’s economy still seems far away from recession territory. Weak growth in the first half of this year vanished in the third quarter, when US GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.6 per cent. Disposable incomes are keeping pace with inflation, encouraging healthy growth in consumer spending. Spending on travel is stronger now than on the eve of the pandemic.

      The private sector is spending too, with corporate capital expenditure growing much faster than business revenues and earnings. The unemployment rate also remains very low at 3.7 per cent and has barely budged despite all the Fed tightening. None of this is what one would expect on the eve of a recession.

      The tight labour market does push up wage inflation but some analysts are holding out the hope that with job openings coming off significantly from the all-time highs of March this year, wage growth too will cool shortly. The public expects inflation to fall back into the low single digits, not remain stuck near double digits, as was the case in the 1980s. So today there is less pressures on the Fed to keep raising rates.

      Lower inflation would further boost the confidence of American consumers, who are in unusually strong financial shape. Bank deposits swelled during the pandemic, and $2.5tn of that cash is still in the banks. Personal net worth is still about $25tn higher than before the pandemic. The debts that imploded in the Great Recession of 2007-2009 have largely vanished: today nearly 70 per cent of home buyers have FICO credit scores in the top tier — over 760 — compared with 20 per cent before the crisis.

      While we have been conditioned to expect economic shocks to be negative, there is always the possibility of a “bluebird” event bringing unexpected joy. A warm winter or peace in Ukraine would lower energy bills, helping to slow inflation and raise economic growth.
      …

      1. A counter argument …

        “Pento: A Hawkish Pivot”

        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pento-hawkish-pivot

        (snip snip snip snip)

        This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot.

        Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and liquidity cycles remain unchanged: The Fed is hiking rates into a recession. Powell may have done his last 75bp rate hike on November 2nd. But another 50bp hike is likely coming in December, and then the regular 25bp variety is coming in February. Meanwhile, $95 billion per month of Quantitative Tightening is rapidly destroying the money supply.

        That is what Wall Street wants you to believe is a Pivot. The Fed may indeed downshift to a slower pace of rate hikes come December. However, it will maintain a restrictive Fed Funds Rate (FFR) of nearly 5% for multiple months once that level is achieved. Powell made that point very clear during his latest FOMC press conference. The FFR will be higher than they thought in September. Also, Chair Powell said it is extremely premature to think about any kind of rate-hiking pause.

        So, where does this leave the stock market? Stocks do not bottom when equities valuations equal 150% of the overall economy (TMC/GDP). During the 2000 recession, the NASDAQ bottomed at 71% TMC/GDP, down from 142% at the high. The Great Recession saw stocks bottom at 45% TMC/GDP, down from 105%. Even during the Pandemic recession, TMC/GDP fell from 152% to 120%. All those bottoms were associated with a Fed that was rapidly cutting interest rates to 1% or below. And in the case of 2008 & 2020 recessions, the Fed was engaged in the massive money printing scheme known as Quantitative Easing as well. Market bottoms do not occur just because the Fed reduces the pace of rate hikes from 75bp to 50bp increments. Every Recession in the past has been dealt with by massive monetary and fiscal stimuli. But with inflation at close to a record high, it is simply tying the government’s hands.

        And, please do not think that government and central banks can automatically boost asset prices at will—no matter how hard they try. For example, China’s Shanghai stock exchange is still down 50% from its 2007 peak; and Japan’s NIKKEI Dow is down 30% from its top reached 33 years ago. Those figures are in nominal terms!

        Let us look at some of the latest economic data to affirm that GDP is getting weaker by the day and point to a recession that is going to be brutal: 37% of small companies in the US, which employ half of all workers, can no longer pay their rent. Amazon, the largest online retailer in America, missed on Q3 revenue and warned on 4th Quarter sales, which were guided down to be the slowest growth for the company on record. New Home Mortgage applications fell by 41% year over year, just as mortgage rates are now the highest in 20 years—above 7% and rising. And the ISM Services Sector Business survey showed that even though the economy slowed in October from the previous month, prices are still increasing at a faster rate.

        The consumer is faltering, and yet Fed Chair Powell told Wall Street at his latest press conference that he is indeed pivoting…but it is to be more hawkish. There is a steep recession just ahead, and there is nothing the Fed can do to stop it. It is not a choice. If Powell were to undergo a genuine dovish pivot back towards ZIRP and QE at this point, it would cause inflation to run intractable. Hence, long-term interest rates would soon skyrocket and render the government and the economy insolvent. Therefore, after the initial reflexive surge in stock prices upon any such announcement of a rate pause/cut or return to QE, asset prices would soon crash anyway; and the Fed would be left with a much more difficult inflation situation to deal with down the road. Therefore, there will be no such dovish pivot anytime soon, just a freezing of the FFR at a very high level relative to the past 14 years. Along with a record dose of QT.

        Given the extent of asset bubbles and level of debt in the economy, a depression is a real possibility. And an equity market collapse from these prices is still in the cards. If the S&P 500 were to just return to a historically-lofty 100% TMC/GDP, it would entail a decline of another 30%. That would be in addition to the losses already suffered. You do not have to tolerate another drubbing like this in your buy-and-hold 60/40 portfolio. Active management has become mandatory in this boom/bust world that is completely controlled by feckless central bankers.

        1. “Meanwhile, $95 billion per month of Quantitative Tightening is rapidly destroying the money supply.”

          Got hyperbole?

          Somehow the money supply survived for decades in the absence of Quantitative Easing. Once inflation is wrung out of the dollar, it’s going to be much more stable than when interest rates were artificially suppressed by a decade’s worth of Quantitative Easing.

        2. “For example, China’s Shanghai stock exchange is still down 50% from its 2007 peak; and Japan’s NIKKEI Dow is down 30% from its top reached 33 years ago. Those figures are in nominal terms!”

          So much for the false theory that the stock market always goes up.

      2. “A warm winter or peace in Ukraine would lower energy bills, helping to slow inflation and raise economic growth.”

        Let’s pray for peace of on earth and global warming.

      3. Lower inflation would further boost the confidence of American consumers, who are in unusually strong financial shape.

        Cue one of the Critical Drinker maniacal laughing tirades.

        Strong financial shape? Is that why people’s credit card debt is skyrocketing

        Disposable incomes are keeping pace with inflation

        On what planet is this happening?

        1. For some inexplicable reason, he ignores that definition and plays along with the MSM narratives.

    2. The Financial Times
      3 hours ago 02:36
      Goldman Sachs cuts 2023 earnings forecasts for biggest US companies
      Akila Quinio in London

      Goldman Sachs has forecast that the 500 largest US-listed companies will generate no earnings growth next year after businesses’ third-quarter margins weakened.

      Goldman on Monday said S&P 500 companies’ net margins shrank more than expected in the three-month period from a year earlier. It was the first time corporate margins have contracted since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, it added.

      The latest quarterly earnings reports prompted the US investment bank to lower its earnings per share forecast for 2023 from a rise of 3 per cent from a year earlier to no growth.

      For non-energy groups, Goldman analysts expect margins to contract 86 basis points this year before returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

      The energy sector was an outlier in the quarter as high oil prices and capex discipline raised their margins “to record levels”, the analysis showed.

      Negative revisions to 2023 consensus estimates were “particularly sharp” this year.

      The US bank however expects S&P 500 earnings not to fall below recession levels and maintained its overall year-end 2022 and 2023 index targets.
      …

    3. Bloomberg: Business News Daily
      Markets
      Treasury Yield-Curve Inversion Reaches a Four-Decade Extreme
      – Two-year yield exceeds 10-year by more than 58 basis points
      – Expected peak in Fed policy rate next year exceeds 5%
      By Elizabeth Stanton and Michael Mackenzie
      November 3, 2022 at 11:37 AM PDT
      Updated onNovember 3, 2022 at 12:40 PM PDT

      A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve reached new extremes of inversion Thursday, touching a level not seen since the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve also was aggressively tightening policy.
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-03/treasury-2-to-10-year-yield-curve-inversion-reaches-new-extreme#xj4y7vzkg

    4. Yield Curve Flashes Recession Alert.
      …
      Sunshine Profits | Nov 04, 2022 12:56PM ET

      The key yield curve has inverted, shouting loudly that a recession is coming – … . I’ve been writing about the downturn for some time, but in October, another important indicator flashed a red light.

      Earlier this year, the spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds (the red line) turned negative. In April, it timidly fell below zero for a while, but in July it did it again and with greater boldness, remaining since then in negative territory. Commenting on this event, I wrote:

      This is a very important development, as it strengthens the recessionary signal sent by the April curve. The previous reversal was very brief and shallow – and thus not very reliable. But the second inversion within just four months implies that dark clouds are indeed gathering over the US economy.

      I also added one important caveat about drawing too far-reaching conclusions about the recessionary prospects:

      The more important spread between 10-year and 3-month US Treasuries hasn’t yet turned negative. However, it has flattened significantly since May, plunging to a level close to zero, and – after the next hikes in the federal funds rate – it could invert as well.

      Well, this is what happened last month. As the chart above shows, the spread between 10-year and 3-month US Treasuries (blue line) fell below zero on October 18 (to -0.03%) and later on October 25 (to -0.4%), joining the club of negative spreads.

      The inversion of this yield curve is a huge development, as it strengthens the recessionary signals sent by the 10-year and 2-year curves in April and June. Please remember that the 10-year and 3-month spread is believed to offer the highest accuracy and predictive power among all possible bond yields. As the chart below shows, this spread has turned negative before each recession in the 1982-2020 period (the research conducted by the New York Fed confirms this feature also for the earlier years, until 1968).
      …
      https://m.investing.com/analysis/yield-curve-flashes-recession-alert-better-times-ahead-for-gold-200631962

    5. The Wall Street Journal
      Nov 2, 2022 at 4:15 pm ET
      Yield-Curve Inversion, Classic Recession Warning, Deepens Again
      By Matt Grossman

      One recession predictor is flashing following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Wednesday press conference.

      The yield curve is close to its most negative levels of 2022 once more, a sign traders remain convinced the central bank will switch to cutting interest rates in the months or years ahead.

      The curve measures the difference between long-term and short-term Treasury yields. Since the summer, two-year yields have been higher than 10-year yields. Bond yields tend to follow investors’ expectations for how the Fed will set overnight interest rates.

      So when short-term yields are higher, it is a sign traders think rate cuts—typically prompted by a slowdown or a recession—may be ahead.

      After Mr. Powell’s press conference, the two-year yield was more than 50 basis points higher than the 10-year yield. That’s around the most inverted that the yield curve has been all year.
      …

    6. Layoffs are picking up. These are the first 3 steps to take after losing your job
      Published Fri, Nov 4 2022 12:49 PM EDT
      Updated Fri, Nov 4 2022 1:37 PM EDT
      Annie Nova
      Key Points
      – A job loss can be traumatic, setting off a myriad of financial problems.
      – But taking the right steps, sooner rather than later, can help reduce the disruptiveness.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/04/layoffs-are-picking-up-3-steps-to-take-after-losing-your-job.html

    1. “Dead is pretty hurt dude. I looked it up. The science tells me dead is more hurt than not being vaxed. I don’t mean to argue with you, well I can’t argue with you, your dead. 34 years old and dead in the bathtub. What happened with hanging off a door knob? I wonder why they killed him? Another vax pushing Hollyweird sodomite (they all are) bites the dust. That singing/Hollyweird satanic lifestyle has been hard on this one. Look up some of his younger pictures. Satan is hard on you. He uses you up and then takes your soul. And what is it with getting tattooed to the point that it is revolting and disgusting?”

      1. In fairness to the death jab, after watching and listening to that self absorbed wanker (may he rest in peace) for a couple of minutes, I can think of more than one way he may have met his maker.

    2. From what little I’ve seen and remember, he was really f@cked up. I’d suspect overdose before vax.

    1. Mamaroneck, NY

      Taking the train into the city for games and concerts I remember the stop well. I also remember one of my buddies mocking the train conductor by yelling out…

      Mamaroneck station! Watch your step drunks in the isle! Mamaroneck station!

  11. A reader sent these in:

    End of #MMT illusion in one chart: Modern Monetary Theory was at its zenith 2yrs ago when global interest rates were low amid record fiscal deficits. Feeding illusion that #debt space is limitless. This illusion has ended abruptly in recent mths w/UK & Japan in turmoil. (via IIF)

    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1589262701879910400

    Has anyone lost 75B$ in a year before? $META

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1588833834686386177

    This is wild

    https://twitter.com/NickatFP/status/1589070690350936066

    Layoffs momentum keeps building
    Latest headlines:
    – Meta to begin “large-scale” layoffs
    – Twitter laying of half (3,300+) of employees
    – Opendoor laying off 18%
    – Stripe 14%
    – Lyft 13%
    These are not small cuts nor are these small companies. The Jobocalypse is arriving…

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1589378787728232448

    Straight from the horse’s mouth. Just as global shipping giants FedEx & Maersk are warning, the trucking industry is seeing volumes plunge, too.

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1589447237649584130

    How is the American consumer still spending despite inflation outpacing their wages for 19 consecutive months? They’re saving less (savings rate at lowest level since 2008) and borrowing more (consumer credit increasing at fastest pace since 2011).

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1589390604529995779

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    New home sales could reach only ~50% of annual completions in 2022, lowest proportion in >two decades. Annual primary home transactions hit just 11k units this year, lowest since 2013, while annual new home completions could rise 46% YoY to an 18-yr high of ~21k units.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1589427888763256832

    This week, the Bank of England confirmed the UK is in a recession, and stated that it will last longer than the Great Recession of 2008. Is the US next?

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1589422632725872641

    The average price of a new home in the US is now over 10x higher than per capita disposable income, the highest ratio in history.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1541824964415946754

    Houses 🏘 & Earnings 💸

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1542107880073175042

    Over 50% rent delinquency rate in Mass lol.

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1589331401249546240

    CarDealershipGuy

    Guys the auctions were SLAMMED with ‘no-sales’ today. Felt like 2 out of every 3 cars didn’t sell. Sellers wanted more, but buyers weren’t paying. Wholesale prices are down 10.3% y/y but it feels like the real decline is only starting.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1588588056038318083

    CarDealershipGuy

    Wow… carvana stock just hit $9/share. Down from nearly $400/share last year. 😵‍💫

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1588614615596138496

    Allentown, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Philadelphia are all seeing YoY price declines.

    https://twitter.com/HousingRalph/status/1587447189042651136

    John Wake

    October did, in fact, close with the highest MLS listing failure rate since 2011 in metro Phoenix.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1589304241805725697

    Expired = Red
    Cancelled = Purple
    Are they planning to re-list in Spring after more layoffs, as the Fed continues to hold rates steady? (What they say they plan to do, FWIW)

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1589309503505600514

    Phoenix always leads the way to bubble bursts. It’s coming. Now how to position yourself to find the right deals for a long term hold. That’s the question.

    https://twitter.com/TonyPeric/status/1589311937015611392

    $OPEN Opendoor to shutter their mortgage finance business

    https://twitter.com/gshortelljr/status/1589333106913603584

    John Burns

    People who buy homes, fix, and then flip them have been increasingly flipping them to investors who rent them out. Investors bought 22% of flipped homes last year, and bought 44% of flipped homes last quarter.

    https://twitter.com/johnburnsjbrec/status/1589271881487720450

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Economic update:

    1. Average rate on 30Y mortgage now 7.3%, highest since 2000

    2. Mortgage demand at 25 year low

    3. Wells Fargo mortgage business down 90%

    4. Credit card debt hits $930B, higher than 2008

    5. Average American’s savings down 72% this year

    We are in a recession.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1589263064503054340

    1. These are not small cuts nor are these small companies. The Jobocalypse is arriving…

      Especially at firms that have never made a profit.

      1. Especially at firms that have never made a profit.
        I gotta believe VC money is going to slow to a trickle due to higher rates of return on Short-term instruments. Which of course, will result in more job cuts/closures of non-profitable companies.
        Why is the concept of “You need to make a profit” so foreign?

        1. Why is the concept of “You need to make a profit” so foreign?

          I think it’s going to suddenly become very fashionable to turn a profit.

      2. Twitter is laying off people in Boulder.

        We need someone to clean up trash around here, the broom and shovel are right here, Blue Checkmarks.

    3. “Guys the auctions were SLAMMED with ‘no-sales’ today. Felt like 2 out of every 3 cars didn’t sell. Sellers wanted more, but buyers weren’t paying.”

      Mindlessly simple fix: Eliminate the reservation price. Every car will sell at SOME price.

  12. But many say promised repairs didn’t take place, properties sit empty and guaranteed rent payments weren’t made.”

    “Guaranteed rent payments” in a Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned urban cesspool where parasitism and freeloading are exalted as supreme virtues? BWAHAHAHAHAAAAA! The stupid, it burns.

  13. ‘Steven Wu took advantage of hardworking immigrants and sold them and their families a lie,’ said James.

    I’m guessing most of those “hardworking immigrants” were CCP-connected embezzlers seeking to park their ill-gotten gains offshore.

  14. This is glorious. “Woke” little Stalinists who censored and deplatformed truth-tellers & pushed lying globalist narratives being cast out into the outer darkness of our oligarch-looted, Brandon regime-mismanaged economy to fend for themselves. Move to Appalachia and learn to dig coal, special snowflakes!

    Facebook parent company Meta to cut thousands of jobs

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/facebook-parent-company-meta-to-cut-thousands-of-jobs/news-story/1a0273f9131706e9f399954a6943d9c6

    Thousands of jobs are expected to go at Meta after the parent company of Facebook and Instagram reported its profit had more than halved.

    1. “Woke” little Stalinists who censored and deplatformed truth-tellers & pushed lying globalist narratives

      They failed to understand that they were always expendable.

  16. I can’t find this article with a Google search, the DOJ must have told them it was disinformation.

    Joe Biden Promises Climate Activist at Rally in New York: ‘No More Drilling’

    CHARLIE SPIERING
    6 Nov 2022

    President Joe Biden told a climate activist on Sunday he would not allow any new drilling in the United States, just days after he complained that oil companies are not drilling enough.

    “No more drilling. There is no more drilling,” Biden said, speaking to a climate activist as he finished up a rally in New York for Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). “I haven’t formed any new drilling.”

    The activist responded to Biden by noting there is still offshore drilling in the Antarctic and off of the Gulf of Mexico.

    “That was before I was president,” Biden said. “We’re trying to work on that — get that done.”

    Biden’s comment to the climate activist differed from his statements on Wednesday when he blamed oil companies for not drilling enough.

    “We haven’t slowed them down at all. They should be drilling more than they’re doing now,” he said at a rally in New Mexico. “If they were drilling more, we’d have more relief at the pump.”

    Catch Up
    @CatchUpNetwork
    ·
    Biden: “No more drilling. There is no more drilling. I haven’t formed any new drilling.”

    https://twitter.com/CatchUpNetwork/status/1589411228082122753?s=20&t=z0Dsutrn0XV5ehsv0ca3YQ

    1. President Joe Biden told a climate activist on Sunday he would not allow any new drilling in the United States, just days after he complained that oil companies are not drilling enough.

      Weeks after OPEC+ gave him the finger.

      Hard to say if he was just blowing in the envirowacko’s ears or if he is serious about stopping all new drilling. The consequences would be catastrophic, the country would collapse.

      A few weeks ago I saw a clip about some young Brit Greens moaning about how “Farming is bad for the environment and has to stop now!” Clearly, he had no idea how his previous meal was produced.

      We are living in Heinlein’s Crazy Years.

  17. Clinton accuses Republicans of trying to ‘scare voters’ over crime

    By Dan Merica, CNN
    Thu November 3, 2022

    Clinton said the focus on crime is Republicans “just trying to gin up all kinds of fear and anxiety in people.”

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/03/politics/hillary-clinton-crime-cnntv

    Report: NYC Tourist Raped During Morning Jog Choked Until Neck Bones Broke

    AMY FURR
    6 Nov 2022

    Manhattan Assistant District Attorney Lauren Breen stated, “The defendant demonstrated a clear predatory pattern. He chose unpopulated areas, he targeted women who were either walking or jogging home, he attacked each of them from behind, choked them, and sexually assaulted each of the three victims.”

    The latest incident happened Thursday as a 43-year-old tourist was jogging on Pier 45 when Phanor allegedly grabbed her, threw her down, then choked her unconscious.

    The suspect allegedly removed her clothes, raped her, then snatched her phone, debit card, hotel key card, and identification before fleeing on a Citi Bike.

    Phanor reportedly tried to buy a Greyhound bus ticket with the victim’s credit card but Port Authority officers, who knew to be on the lookout for the suspect, spotted him and took him into custody.

    The suspect’s first attack in the city reportedly happened on March 27 and the second on October 6. In addition, he reportedly has at least 25 prior arrests.

    https://www.breitbart.com/crime/2022/11/06/report-nyc-tourist-raped-morning-jog-choked-until-neck-bones-broke/

    1. “Phanor, who police said is homeless, is being represented by a court-appointed attorney. The defense attorney asked for bail to be set, and told the court that Phanor had been abandoned by his parents and needs mental health assistance.”

      This guy is a clear menace to society, has no home or means of support, and the court-appointed attorney asks for bail and leniency? WTF is wrong with these attorneys?

  18. The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 4.1 points in October to 56.7, its eighth consecutive monthly decline and lowest reading since the inception of the index in 2011. Five of the six index components decreased month over month, including those associated with home buying and selling conditions, as persistently high home prices and unfavorable mortgage rates continue to fuel consumers’ housing affordability concerns. Only 16% of respondents indicated that now is a good time to buy a home – a new survey low – while the percentage who believe now is a good time to sell a home decreased sharply from 59% to 51% in October. Year over year, the full index is down 18.8 points.

    “The HPSI reached an all-time survey low this month, in line with expectations that the housing market will continue to cool in the months ahead,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about both homebuying and home-selling conditions. Amid persistently high home prices and unfavorable mortgage rates, the ‘bad time to buy’ component increased to a new survey high this month, while the ‘good time to sell’ component continued its downward trend. Consumers also remain concerned about the movement of home prices – expectations that prices will decrease reached a new survey high, particularly among homeowners – offering further support to our forecast of home price declines in 2023. As continued affordability constraints reduce homebuyer demand, and homeowners become reluctant to sell at potentially reduced prices, we expect home sales to slow even further in the coming months, consistent with our forecast.”

    Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights

    Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in October by 4.1 points to 56.7. The HPSI is down 18.8 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.

    Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 19% to 16%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 75% to 80%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 8 percentage points month over month.

    Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 59% to 51%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell increased from 33% to 42%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 17 percentage points month over month.

    Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 32% to 30%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 35% to 37%. The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from 28% to 26%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up decreased 4 percentage points month over month.

    Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 9% to 6%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 64% to 65%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 20% to 24%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 4 percentage points month over month.

    Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 78% to 85%, while the percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 21% to 15%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 13 percentage points month over month.

    Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 26% to 25%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 11% to 15%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 61% to 60%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 5 percentage points month over month.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-housing-hits-time-133000765.html

    1. ‘Consumers also remain concerned about the movement of home prices – expectations that prices will decrease reached a new survey high, particularly among homeowners’

      Wait a doggone minute. You winnahs! aren’t getting perma bear stopped clock cold feet are ya?

      2. remain concerned

        I own my home. I am not concerned about lower prices, I welcome them. Higher prices increase my tax and insurance burden.

        1. Higher prices increase my tax and insurance burden.

          If Californians didn’t have Prop 13, they’d care a lot more about these. High prices and low rates are the rage.

          1. TABOR has kept property taxes down in Colorado, but insurance, especially after the Marshall fire? To the moon, Alice.

  19. Jeremy Siegel says the housing crash will force Fed chief Powell to ‘flip sometime’ on inflation and pivot
    Brian Evans Nov 7, 2022, 10:04 AM
    Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel

    The housing market crash will push the Federal Reserve to pivot, according to Jeremy Siegel.

    The Wharton professor told CNBC on Monday that Fed chief Jerome Powell relies on backward-looking housing data.

    “I think the market says he’s gotta flip sometime,” Siegel said. “He will see the light, it’s just taking him a little longer.”
    …
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-siegel-housing-crash-rent-inflation-fed-pivot-jerome-powell-2022-11

  21. The Atlantic wets the bed.

    Democrats’ Long Goodbye to the Working Class (11/6/2022):

    https://archive.ph/Knuk8

    LOL@ imagine voting for a party that wants you FIRED FROM YOUR JOB for not getting injected with an experimental mRNA poison.

      1. The Fed has created so much inflation for so long — it didn’t even start with COVID. It didn’t even really start with QE. The Fed was creating inflation even before it upped the ante to quantitative easing and then upped it again in the aftermath of COVID.”

        Powell also admitted that inflation was a lot higher and has lasted a lot longer than anybody at the Fed had expected.

        This is tantamount to saying, ‘We got this wrong. We made a mistake. And now we need to correct that mistake by staying tighter for longer or going higher than markets expect.’”

        1. Or perhaps We stole a little bit too much, to fast and for too long and it’s coming back to bite us.

  23. If I hadn’t read the first five comments I wouldn’t have posted this. Super rich look at me listen to me bimbo with personal body guards and undoubtedly a Leonardo DiCaprio carbon foot print shouldn’t be listened to in the first place.

    She has the right to say it and I have the right to say she is full of methane and her opinion is simply mouth flatulence.

    As I heard it said on countless jobsites when someone farted…

    Voice changed but the breath is the same.

    Jennifer Lawrence Suggests Her Pro-Trump Parents Think Nazis Are Good Guys

    DAVID NG
    6 Nov 2022

    Hollywood star Jennifer Lawrence has spoken about her struggle to forgive her parents for supporting President Donald Trump, accusing them of disagreeing with her even on whether Nazis are “bad guys” in the past few years.

    In an interview with Vanity Fair, Jennifer Lawrence hesitated at first when asked if she has reconciled with her parents over their political views.

    3,192 Comments

    Nate • 21 hours ago
    Wow. I disagree with my parents about politics. They are decent people but we have a different view about the world. Just because we have different political views doesn’t mean I would compare them to Stalin or Lenin or some other infamous person or political party.

    Anneke9 Nate • 19 hours ago • edited

    My mother grew up in Nazi Germany. Getting people to turn on their parents and kin was the hallmark of Hitler’s Nazi brainwashing. Jennifer is a useful idiot.

    JT Anneke9 • 19 hours ago • edited
    “Lawrence has spoken about her struggle to forgive her parents for supporting Trump”

    Forgive??!!???!??

    If she was my daughter, I’d be like – Sweetie, don’t bother coming home…
    conrad JT • 18 hours ago
    Your parents seem like great people.

    https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2022/11/06/jennifer-lawrence-suggests-her-pro-trump-parents-think-nazis-are-good-guys/

    1. Jennifer is a useful idiot.

      Precisely! Yet another Hollywood whore thinking we care what she thinks.

          3. “Harvey Weinstein…”

            Can’t imagine having to get his blessing.

            But you have to admit that she has portrayed some difficult and scantily clad roles that many ladies are probably not eager to commit. Her filmography is lengthy, so she’s got a tough outer layer to protect who she really is underneath.

    1. The Financial Times
      Tiger Global Management LLC
      Tiger Global losses mount after whipsawing tech valuations
      Flagship fund is down 54.7% so far this year while ‘crossover’ vehicle has fallen 44%
      Chase Coleman of Tiger Global in front of the group’s New York HQ
      Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global has halted new investments in China
      Antoine Gara in New York 2 hours ago

      Losses at Tiger Global Management continued to mount in October after the New York-based hedge fund was buffeted by the whipsawing value of technology stocks in the US and a sell-off in China.

      The firm’s flagship hedge fund lost 5.4 per cent in October, taking losses so far this year to a new low of 54.7 per cent, according to a person with knowledge of the figures.

      A “crossover” fund that mixes publicly traded technology holdings without any hedges and Tiger’s private equity investments fell 4 per cent in October, putting year-to-date losses at 44 per cent, another fresh low, according to a document seen by the Financial Times.

      At the mid-year point, Tiger’s flagship fund had fallen about 50 per cent, while the crossover fund had fallen by nearly 36 per cent, according to documents.

      The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 4 per cent last month. Tiger declined to comment.

      The new losses underscore continued pressure on Tiger’s sprawling portfolio of public and privately held technology companies as founder Chase Coleman and top executive Scott Shleifer work to better manage the firm’s risks and adapt to volatile markets.

      Tiger has halted new investment in China as it awaits further clarity on how President Xi Jinping will manage the world’s second-largest economy, according to a person familiar with the situation.

      Tiger had been reducing its exposure to the country ahead of the Chinese Communist party meeting in October, in which Xi secured a new five-year term and consolidated power, the person added.

      The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month on the halt in new Chinese equity investments.
      …

    2. The Financial Times
      Markets volatility
      US stock hedging strategies backfire during market rout
      Traders say the performance of put options this year calls into question their value
      Display of share market prices in zoom effect.
      The slow downward grind of the stock market has provided few opportunities for big pay-offs in put options
      Nicholas Megaw and Eric Platt in
      New York yesterday

      Investors who poured money into funds aimed at protecting them from the sell-off in shares are finding many of the strategies have backfired, offering little or no safeguard from a drawdown that has sliced $13tn off the US stock market.

      Funds that focused on buying equity put options, which are often used as insurance against stock declines, have struggled to make gains even as the S&P 500 suffers its worst drawdown since the 2008 financial crisis. Those who prepared for violent swings by buying call options on the Cboe’s Vix index — which would pay off if the market gauge of expected volatility spiked — have also been left wanting.

      A Cboe index that tracks a theoretical portfolio that buys both stocks within the S&P 500 and equity put options — known as the PPUT index — has fallen roughly 20 per cent this year, not any better than the total return of the S&P 500.

      Dylan Grice, co-founder of Calderwood Capital, a hedge fund advisory and research firm, said the performance of put options this year had raised “fundamental” questions about the point of some strategies. “It’s like an insurance company that doesn’t pay out when you have an accident,” he said.
      …

    3. The Financial Times
      US economy
      Fed warns sharply higher interest rates could spark financial distress
      Financial stability report says banks are well capitalised against shocks from a downturn
      Higher than expected interest rates would lead to ‘delinquencies, bankruptcies, and other forms of financial distress,’ the Federal Reserve said
      Colby Smith in Washington and Eric Platt in New York November 4 2022

      The US Federal Reserve warned of the potential for financial distress that damages the economy if interest rates rise to levels higher than expected, in a report that underscored the stakes of its drive to control stubborn inflation.

      The central bank’s latest report on financial stability published on Friday highlighted a constellation of risks including a weaker global economy, “unacceptably high” inflation, and geopolitical turmoil. These currents have magnified volatility in some asset classes.

      The report arrived two days after the Fed raised benchmark interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the fourth time in a row, bringing them to a new target range of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent. As recently as March, rates hovered near zero. The Bank of England also raised rates by 0.75 percentage points on Thursday, with the European Central Bank also opting for a jumbo rate rise last week.

      The Fed is raising rates in an attempt to cool down an economy marked by persistently high inflation. Should they need to rise more than expected, that “would weaken the debt service capacity of households and businesses and lead to an increase in delinquencies, bankruptcies, and other forms of financial distress”, its financial stability report said.

      The Fed added this could eventually lead to heightened volatility in markets, strained liquidity and further drops in asset prices, including in housing.

      “Such effects could cause losses at a range of financial intermediaries, reducing their access to capital and raising their funding costs, with further adverse consequences for asset prices, credit availability, and the economy,” said the report, which is issued twice a year.
      …

      1. Isn’t it interesting how all the problems in financial markets currently manifesting themselves are blamed on currently rising interest rates?

        A decade’s worth of artificially suppressed rates to massively subsidize risk asset investment is never mentioned.

        1. “A decade’s worth of artificially suppressed rates to massively subsidize risk asset investment is never mentioned.“

          Not publicly.

          The fed is backed against the proverbial turnbuckle, and the punches just keep coming.

      2. Higher than expected interest rates would lead to ‘delinquencies, bankruptcies, and other forms of financial distress

        I do believe you have the cart before the horse.

  26. October Sales Crash! | Phoenix Real Estate Market Update | Phoenix, AZ
    Caitlin McKeague – Your Phoenix Real Estate Agent
    Premiered 70 minutes ago
    In this Phoenix Real Estate Market Update we are talking about how the Phoenix real estate market continues to deteriorate for sellers, and YOY stats from last October to today. Plus, an exciting week in the economy. Watch to find out more!
    *Source: Cromford Report

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzeZhs-ySJA

    15:43. Check out 8:50.

    1. 11:10

      Transactions lowest since 2009?

      IIRC the housing market was in a free fall in 2009, so much so they stopped evicting for foreclosure and people lived in their shacks for years without making mortgage payments.

  28. Bought my House in 2010. Bank Owned Repo. Three years of reading and learning from this website and commenters helped me buy. I refied once 4 years ago to replace the roof and kitchen counters. Not Going to Refi again. It is a place to live for us, and raise our grandkids.
    I watch what is happening in the housing market here in California with abject Horror! This may wind up being a “Toe-Tag House” for us.

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