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Will The Bubble Burst?

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  1. From the first 7:23 video:

    Why Are Some Losing BIG MONEY in Real Estate TODAY?
    Orange County Living by Mahr Marketing Group
    Nov 16, 2022
    How to WIN in the CURRENT Orange County Housing Market

    In this video, we go over how rates have been changing the real estate market, correctly pricing your home, and knowing the mortgage options available to buyers can net you more profits from the sale of your home. BUYERS, watch this video so you know your options and how to lock in that prime location NOW! Rates are up but there are options out there as low as 4.325%.

    The second 6:26 video:

    20% housing correction is coming, says Peter Boockvar
    CNBC Television
    Nov 16, 2022
    Bleakley Advisors’ Peter Boockvar agrees with the Dallas Fed’s warning about the state of the housing market and warns that a 20 percent correction is coming.

    The third 5 minute video:

    El Paso’s Housing Market: Will the Bubble Burst?
    KVIA ABC-7
    Nov 17, 2022

    The fourth 14 minute video:

    Tough Reality For Sellers In Vaughan, Richmond Hill & Markham Real Estate – Nov 9
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    Nov 17, 2022

    Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices for the week of Nov 3 – Nov 9, 2022.

  2. Builders apply the brakes amid canceled contracts
    HousingWire|11 hours ago
    To give some numbers on the topic, the gap between housing completions data today versus the housing bubble peak is roughly 700,000 — almost half of the total completion data today. As you can see in the chart below, we had a nice, slow up-trend from …

    House prices might plunge 20% in the hottest US markets – and the slump could hammer the wider economy, top investor says
    Business Insider|20 hours ago
    Home prices have soared in recent years, and surging mortgage rates are pricing out buyers, Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Advisory said.
    Home prices could fall 20% in a pessimistic scenario says Dallas Fed economist
    Daily Mail|18 hours ago
    Enrique Martínez-García, a senior research economist at the Dallas Fed, published his analysis on Tuesday, examining how policymakers must ‘thread the needle’ in deflating the housing bubble. The Federal Reserve has issued a series of aggressive …

    Use The Airbnb Stock Implosion to Your Advantage
    Entrepreneur|1 day ago
    Airbnb was born during the 2007 housing bubble. The Company noted how its New Hosts on Airbnb was growing rapidly just as in the 2008 recession as homeowners become more eager for additional income. It’s important to note that its hosting supply rises …

  3. Builders are pulling out the stops to lure in buyers who are reluctant in the face of higher mortgage rates, which topped 7% last week for the 30-year fixed rate.

    For instance, nearly 3 in 5 builders say they are offering incentives this month. In November, 25% of builders are paying mortgage points for buyers to lower their rate, up from 13% in September. Mortgage rate buy-downs increased from 19% to 27% over the same period.

    Additionally, 37% of builders cut prices this month, up from 26% in September. The average price reduction was 6%, which is below the 10% to 12% cuts seen during the Great Recession.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-starts-and-permits-drop-in-october-134714519.html

  4. Disgraced Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison talked about “regular amphetamine use” in an April 2021 Twitter thread — more than one year before the FTX-linked crypto hedge fund imploded.

    Ellison, the close business associate and confirmed ex-girlfriend of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, has been under intense scrutiny since Alameda and other FTX Group-linked entities filed for bankruptcy last week after running out of cash.

    “Nothing like regular amphetamine use to make you appreciate how dumb a lot of normal, non-medicated human experience is,” Ellison said in the tweet dated April 5, 2021.

    Her casual drug reference went viral on social media platforms, including Twitter and Reddit, amid reports that FTX funneled $10 billion in client funds to Alameda to help bolster the firm’s risky bets. At least $1 billion of those funds is reportedly still missing following the fund’s implosion.

    The tweet was still live on her Twitter handle @CarolineCapital as of Tuesday morning. Bankman-Fried has regularly interacted with the account in the past.

    Ellison did not elaborate on which drug she had taken. Amphetamine can be prescribed under the brand name Adderall and others as medication to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

    Rumors of amphetamine use among top FTX and Alameda brass have run wild in recent days. In a resurfaced podcast interview from October 2020, Bankman-Fried himself admitted to experimenting with Adderall and other amphetamines.

    Bankman-Fried said nootropics, or brain-boosting drugs, can be “life-changing,” though the effects for most aren’t much “different than coffee.”

    “In general, probably half of all people or more should be taking meds of some kind, because they just make your life a lot better,” Bankman-Fried said while touting the benefits of Adderall and other drugs.

    https://nypost.com/2022/11/15/crypto-ceo-caroline-ellison-tweeted-about-regular-amphetamine-use/

  5. Ethereum has depreciated to a point where the price of an average BAYC has fallen by around 75% since the end of January. If we assume Bieber’s NFT has fallen at the same rate, his $1.3 million stake is likely now worth closer to $300,000—but the fact that he initially overpaid to the degree that he did means it’s likely somewhere between $60,000 and $70,000. 

    https://brobible.com/culture/article/justin-bieber-bored-ape-nft-value-plummets-loss/

  6. Questions remain of how widespread pain from Bitcoin ownership is. Many large venture capital investors put money into FTX. And yet, Bitcoin ETFs only made investing in the cryptocurrency itself more mainstream.

    “Cryptocurrency traders are still saying What-the-FTX is happening?” said Edward Moya of Oanda. “Bitcoin and Ethereum are hanging onto any broader risk appetite for dear life.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f984fde9-b96c-3881-82b4-dcda3eec5d74/smartest-guys-in-the-room-.html

  7. Thursday Digest: Property tax loss could hit S.F. hard; Steph Curry named in suit against FTX
    The Business Journals|22 hours ago
    San Francisco could lose around $200 million by 2028 in property tax revenue because of vacant offices as people work from home, according to a worst-case scenario detailed in a report from the city’s chief economist Ted Egan.

    With 5,900 tech jobs already gone, a Seattle correction looks real
    Seattle Times|8 hours ago
    The string of layoff announcements by Amazon and other Seattle-area tech employers has many asking whether … and even the construction industry, despite a cooling housing market, grew by 700 jobs. While the state’s unemployment rate ticked up from …

    Mortgage market upheaval spurs $17 billion in paper losses for banks
    Crain’s Cleveland Business|19 hours ago
    Big writedowns come at a tough time for banks, which are trying to hoard capital to meet new, higher regulatory requirements.

    Cisco employment cuts: San Jose tech titan may chop 4,000 jobs in ‘rebalance’
    East Bay Times|7 hours ago
    a potentially wrenching plan that includes shedding real estate and layoffs that are expected to have wide effects. Cisco estimates that it will eliminate about 5% of its workforce worldwide, which could work out to a loss of more than 4,100 workers.

    Major Colorado mortgage company to lay off most of its employees at Aurora HQ
    The Business Journals|16 hours ago
    Started by a Denver couple in 1999, Colorado’s third-largest mortgage company will lay off the majority of employees at its Aurora HQ due to “a sudden and drastic reduction in sales.”

    Homepoint laying off Arizona employees amid high mortgage interest rates
    The Business Journals|16 hours ago
    president of Suburban Mortgage. “Capital and liquidity are not the issue, but the lack of loan production. Andrew Turley, president of Phoenix Valuations, said he’s seeing several other lenders either laying off employees or restructuring. “Anecdotally …

  8. he’s seeing several other lenders either laying off employees or restructuring.
    I think we still have a lot more BKs, mergers and warehouse lines to be pulled before this bottoms out

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