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This Is A House With A Lot Of Smoke Alarms And They Are All Going Off

A report from Money. “If you bought your home in 2008 or 2009, selling in 2023 will still be profitable for you,” says Maureen McDermut, a real estate agent with RE/MAX of Cherry Creek in Denver. “If you bought in 2021 and want to sell in 2023, then you may end up taking a loss. In the latter case, it is best to wait until the market corrects and prices adjust upward.'”

“‘In a lot of markets, homeowners will still have great equity if they purchased two or more years ago, and I think those people who need to move will be able to sell and get a good price,’ Sam Sawyer, CEO of Pinnacle Realty Advisors in Austin, Texas.”

From Berkeleyside in California. “‘If a seller bought 10 or more years ago,’ said Judy Richardson. ‘They are likely going to see a large gain and be able to leverage that into a new property or save it for retirement.’ After a red-hot market fueled by the pandemic, the number of sales fell 29% in July-November, compared to the previous year in the Inner East Bay (defined as the cities between Pinole and San Leandro west of the Caldecott Tunnel). In addition, prices stopped climbing and fell 4% to a median of $1 million.”

From Slate. “The heralded conversion of half-empty downtown office space into much-needed housing has not materialized. Instead, office space is empty and getting emptier. The overall office vacancy rate is above 20 percent in Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Minneapolis, and in all four New York City business districts (Brooklyn, Downtown, Midtown, Midtown South). Nationally, office space is about as empty as it was after the 2010 recession … but we’re on the verge of a recession, not at the end of one.”

“Converting buildings to residential use is expensive. Couple that with the fact that office rents are higher, per square foot, than residential rents, and you see why developers are not champing at the bit to get new projects underway. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor at Columbia Business School, gave me an example from San Francisco, where Juul’s old headquarters—down the block from Twitter’s improvised dormitory—is for sale for $150 million. That’s a lot less than the $397 million the embattled nicotine vape company paid for it in 2019.”

From Forbes. “Nashville builder, Jeff Livingston, had a project with 14 families lined up to move in. But he couldn’t move on building the project. Livingston expressed his exasperation with the process. ‘It’s stress, holding of money, interest carry, loss of opportunity, and what if our market falls? We could all be sitting on massive bankruptcies to a very large number.’ Well, the market has fallen. Interest rates are up, demand is down, and there are many builders across the country sitting on properties held up in permitting purgatory. But it may be too late. Money is too expensive for most buyers, and sellers, especially those that bought in the recent period of cheap money, can’t sell their property without losing money.”

“By the time builder Jeremy Seaton and I talked, he confirmed that what has happened in the market is that money has frozen up; nobody – builders, buyers, sellers – can afford to borrow or take the losses of a reduced sales price. ‘All this is going to put a lot of guys out of business,’ he told me. Seaton says he knows of builders on the hook for as much as $32,000 per month on debt service for properties that haven’t been completed or won’t sell for enough to pay off the debt. ‘Oh, well, boo hoo!’ some people might say. ‘Those people took the risk, they lost, too bad for them.'”

From Morningstar. “Home may be where the heart is, but right now conditions in the housing industry are beginning to break many hearts. Boom times during the past 10 years are now going bust. Already in a slump, industry dynamics are seen worsening in the coming year and are expected to be a drag on already beaten-up housing-related stocks, particularly homebuilders. ‘This is a house with a lot of smoke alarms and they are all going off,’ says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. ‘The problem with housing from an investment standpoint is that it takes a long time to clear the excesses and a long time to get to the bottom. Next year will be a tough year for housing.'”

“Homebuilders are managing their inventory well by cutting prices, offering incentives, and even revising contracts, a practice they rarely engage in, says Brian Bernard, director of equity research at Morningstar. Their land management strategies are more flexible. And they’ve begun to rent the single-family that aren’t selling.”

From Point 2 Homes. “What goes up must come down: Now, single family home prices that shot into the stratosphere are currently undergoing a dramatic price correction. The trend that is becoming increasingly evident is that house prices are falling almost twice as fast as condo prices. House prices decreased in 88 of the 100 largest U.S. cities, with Irving, TX leading the way with a -22% decline in just a few months. Toledo, OH followed suit, with a similar drop. Likewise, in 10 other cities, house prices contracted between -15% and -20% compared to their spring peaks.”

“After their spring peak, prices started decreasing, revealing the new market conditions. When it comes to condo prices, the decreases were far less generalized than single family home price drops, but slightly more consistent, with the top 10 steepest decreases ranging between -15% and -29%. For instance, in Stockton, CA (the city with the biggest drop) condo prices fell from $252,500 in May to $180,000 in October. Plus, condo prices contracted more than 20% in four other cities: Raleigh, NC; New Orleans, LA; Omaha, NE; and Glendale, AZ —  which saw condo price drop -21% to -25%.”

The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “B.C.’s housing market continued to slump in November as sales plummeted 50 per cent compared to the same month last year. The largest declines were posted by real estate boards in the Fraser Valley, down 58.3 per cent, Greater Vancouver, down 53.5 per cent, and Chilliwack down 51.7 per cent. Homes listed for sale jumped 63 per cent in Greater Vancouver and nearly doubled in the Fraser Valley last month compared to November 2021.”

“The rise in the number of active listings is especially startling in Vancouver Island and Chilliwack, where the number of listings almost tripled. Prices across B.C. have taken a hit, with some regions posting double-digit decreases. The Fraser Valley posted a 17 per cent decline, with average prices in November at about $915,500, down from about $1.1 million last year. Similarly, average home prices in Chilliwack dropped nearly 19 per cent to $649,000.Victoria posted a 7.7 per cent drop in the average home price. Greater Vancouver prices dropped an average 3.3 per cent while Vancouver Island was down 2.5 per cent.”

The Telegraph in the UK. “A Tory MP declared bankrupt over £1.7 million in debts has refused to stand down immediately. Adam Afriyie, who represents Windsor, vowed to keep doing his best for his constituents until he retires at the next election. Judge Nicholas Briggs made the bankruptcy order at an online hearing in the Insolvency and Companies Court. The judge was told Mr Afriyie owed about £1 million to HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) and about £700,000 to Barclays. Mr Afriyie said after the hearing that proceedings had started after business failures. ‘I am ultimately responsible for some of the bank borrowing through personal guarantee. I’ve been trying to sell our home and downsize for some time, but it’s a tough market.'”

“Representatives of HMRC and Barclays had given the judge details of how much was owed and opposed an adjournment. Judge Briggs concluded: ‘There have been six hearings already of this matter so time really has run out.’ Barrister Fiona Whiteside, who represented Barclays, said the bank had ‘lost patience,’ and added: ‘We have seen no credible evidence that the property will be sold any time soon.'”

Stuff New Zealand. House prices continue to tumble around the country, with prices in 14 of 16 regions now down on an annual basis, the Real Estate Institute says. It was the first time since 2009 that so many regions have recorded annual price decreases. The institute has released its latest figures, and they show the national median price fell 12.4% annually to $810,000 in November, from $925,000 last year. It was also down by 1.2% on October’s median. Its house price index, which measures the changing value of residential property nationwide, showed an annual decrease of 13.7% from the market peak last November.”

“That was a bigger fall than last month’s 10.9% drop, which Kiwibank economists said was the biggest recorded since the institute’s records began in the early 1990s. Auckland had the largest median price decrease, down 18.1% to $1.065 million in November from $1.3m at the same time last year. In the index it was down 18.4% from its peak. There were price declines in all of Auckland’s districts, but the biggest were in Papakura, down 24.8% to $850,000, and Auckland City and Waitakere, down 22.7% to $1.19m and $920,000 respectively. In the Wellington region, the median price was down 17.4% annually to $795,000, from $962,500 last November. The index had it down 20.8% from its peakPrices fell in six of its districts, with Lower Hutt, down 26.6% to $675,000, and Porirua down 19.5% to $815,000, being hit hardest.”

The Globe and Mail.”Kevin O’Leary was in Miami having lunch with the business team of Circle Internet Financial LLC. Two hours later, Mr. O’Leary met Mr. Bankman-Fried, founder and CEO of FTX Trading Ltd., for the first time. The next day after their lunch, an FTX executive called Mr. O’Leary and told him they were looking for a brand ambassador. ‘It was a new gold rush,’ Mr. O’Leary recalled, in an interview. ‘Everyone wanted in.'”

“How did nobody see this coming? Did anyone raise any red flags? Erica Pimentel, a professor at the Smith School of Business at Queen’s University, said the ‘seduction of multiplying wealth and a deep, evident sense of FOMO ensured people weren’t asking enough questions’ about FTX last year. ‘Nobody was asking anything, let alone perform proper due diligence. We weren’t even seeing the bare minimum happen because of all the excitement. I mean, people were genuinely mesmerized,’ said Prof. Pimentel, who teaches financial accounting and researches cryptocurrency and blockchain technology in recent years.”

“‘You didn’t want to be that guy or girl in the room asking the cool crypto kids for their financial statements,’ she said. Circle has also seen its US$9-billion deal to go public fall apart. Mr. O’Leary himself has seen his FTX equity rendered worthless by the bankruptcy protection process, losing at least US$10-million out of his deal with the company. Teachers, Sequioa, Temasek and Tiger are writing down their investments in FTX to zero. It is not clear if other investors are doing the same.”

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This Post Has 134 Comments

  1. ‘That was a bigger fall than last month’s 10.9% drop, which Kiwibank economists said was the biggest recorded since the institute’s records began in the early 1990s’

    Worser.

  2. ‘the ‘seduction of multiplying wealth and a deep, evident sense of FOMO ensured people weren’t asking enough questions’ about FTX last year. ‘Nobody was asking anything, let alone perform proper due diligence. We weren’t even seeing the bare minimum happen because of all the excitement. I mean, people were genuinely mesmerized,’ said Prof. Pimentel, who teaches financial accounting and researches cryptocurrency and blockchain technology in recent years’

    ‘You didn’t want to be that guy or girl in the room asking the cool crypto kids for their financial statements’

    Not hard to take peoples money when they act like that.

    ‘Ms. Pimentel, can I have my tuition back?’

    1. Today’s up and coming multi billion dollar genius criminal masterminds are depending on Quick Books. Start your free 30 day trial today!

  3. ‘All this is going to put a lot of guys out of business,’ he told me. Seaton says he knows of builders on the hook for as much as $32,000 per month on debt service for properties that haven’t been completed or won’t sell for enough to pay off the debt. ‘Oh, well, boo hoo!’ some people might say. ‘Those people took the risk, they lost, too bad for them’

    That’s the spirit!

    1. SoUtah:
      There any many unfinished houses currently for sale in Washington County. This is the same situation that occurred here during the 2008 crash.

      Like this one:
      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2081-2081-W-Magatsu-Cir-Saint-George-UT-84770/2061052044_zpid/

      I’m imagining that the builder’s hope is to finish the house and pay back the lender when sold. I’d just wait to get it (or any of the other hundreds of unfinished houses around here presently for sale) directly, and cheaper, from whatever unobservant lender originally loaned the money to this F’Builder after the property goes to REO status.

      The median income for a married couple in Washington County is around $40,000.00. I’m guessing that the original wishing price for this property of $3.8 million, along with this recent inability of equity locusts to cash in their homes for ungodly amounts of cash in mostly Ca, Nv and Az to get here, is going to mean that this unfinished house is going to be a neighborhood eyesore for quite some time.

      2. It doesn’t even sit on an acre of land. A house like that with a price like that needs to be on 10 acres, minimum, especially when it’s out in the sticks.

  4. ‘If you bought your home in 2008 or 2009, selling in 2023 will still be profitable for you…In a lot of markets, homeowners will still have great equity if they purchased two or more years ago, and I think those people who need to move will be able to sell and get a good price…If a seller bought 10 or more years ago…They are likely going to see a large gain’

    Time to go out back and work on that time machine.

    2. Funny they mention purchase in 2008/2009.

      Weren’t prices on the way down back then? Anyone who bought in 08/09 had to endure futher drops and wait quite a few years to get back to even.

      Odd choice of years to cherry pick.

    3. “The biggest concern is the possibility of going upside down on your mortgage — or owing more than your home is worth. If this were to happen and you needed to sell, the property wouldn’t make enough to pay off your full loan balance.”

      Do they teach this in high school yet?

      1. The only thing they teach in high school:
        -White people are racist and evil
        -Anything that involves self discipline is racist.
        -Math and any critical thinking skills are racist
        -Homo is better than hetero
        -Trans is even better

    2. And in local news:
      Chad Atkins, co-founder of the nonprofit Paw Works animal rescue near Camarillo, died Saturday morning in his Ventura home.
      Bryan Diaz, Atkins’ partner for over 20 years, said the cause of death was heart failure. His death was a surprise as Atkins was healthy and showed no signs of heart problems, Diaz said. Atkins was 44.

    3. Hydroxychloroquine was only partially effective, but at the time it was all we had. Ivermectin held much more promise. Those studies, for HCQ especially, were DESIGNED to make the drugs look bad just to throw shade on Trump. We discussed it here. Elon is right and Fauci has a lot to answer for.

      2. The dark net hosts a vast illicit economy, and it’s how various countries foist their ideology around the world. Blockchain currency is the mothers milk that enables it.

      3. Watching these crypto stories reminds me, sadly, of the WWII Japanese soldiers who hid away in the mountains, still fighting the war long after it ended. As long as he was alive, there was still hope for the Empire. I believe the same thing happened in the South after the Civil War. Similarly, as long as there’s a single valid satoshi stored a cold pen drive somewhere, there is hope for the crypto dream.

        BTC and ETH are up, the rest of the major coins are down. It’s pretty clear that the crypto space is willing to sacrifice all of the alt-coins in order to keep Bitcoin and Ethereum alive as their last wall of defense.
        Any funds invested in alt-coins are likely being withdrawn from exchanges and used to buy cold-wallet bitcoin, driving up the price. I’m guessing that Tether, the hopeful HODLers, and some whales (Saylor?) are also still buying the dip on Bitcoin.

        Unfortunately, I think it will end the same way those wars did. Bitcoin’s only hope for wildly high prices is widespread adoption, which won’t happen. Bitcoin’s only hope for staying relevant at all is to attract institutional investors back with the promise of stability and regulations. But that very stability will prevent those wild price increases which attracted any mainstream investors in the first place. It’s not going to end well.

      4. Reckless gamblers never stop until they lose everything. You see it in Vegas every day. They literally spend every last penny until there is nothing left to spend, then jump off the parking garage. It’s like drug addiction.

  10. This is what The West “winning” looks like.

    Russia Today — Millions of Brits face falling living standards (12/14/2022):

    “The UK is on the cusp of the greatest cost-of-living crisis in modern times, with the number of those below the poverty line rising, according to a report by the New Economics Foundation (NEF).

    In a study released on Monday, the think tank said that 30 million people in Britain will be unable to afford what the public considers to be a decent standard of living by the time the current Parliament ends in 2024.

    Rising prices, below-inflation increases in earnings, and projected increases in unemployment will result in 43% of households lacking the resources to put enough food on the table or buy new clothes, the report said.

    According to the NEF’s calculations, by 2024, almost 90% of single parents and 50% of workers with children will fall below the minimum income standard.”

    https://www.rt.com/business/568167-uk-falling-living-standards/

    Turn that thermostat down, Zelensky needs another $10 billion.

    #Winning

    1. HuffPaint — US Poised To Approve Patriot Missile Battery For Ukraine (12/13/2022):

      “The U.S. is poised to approve sending a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine, finally agreeing to an urgent request from Ukrainian leaders desperate for more robust weapons to shoot down incoming Russian missiles, U.S. officials said Tuesday.

      Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed Western leaders as recently as Monday to provide more advanced weapons to help his country in its war with Russia. The Patriot would be the most advanced surface-to-air missile system the West has provided to Ukraine to help repel Russian aerial attacks.”

      https://www.huffpost.com/entry/us-russia-ukraine-war-patriot-missiles_n_63993c48e4b0169d76dbc0bd

      Keep paying those federal income taxes, slaves.

      And a reminder: Zelensky’s parents live in a $8 million house with a $12,000 a month security detail, all paid for by U.S. taxpayers.

      You’ll never be seen as anything more than cattle to these globalists.

      Globalists gonna globe.

      1. a Patriot missile battery

        If we send it, there’s a 50% chance at best that it gets there.

        If it gets there, there’s a 100% chance the Russians will know exactly where it is.

        1. “If it gets there, there’s a 100% chance the Russians will know exactly where it is.”

          Indeed. It’s not a highly portable platform, and it must also be slaved to a handful of radar setups around its periphery. Adding few C-RAM cannons should round-out each site.

    2. In a study released on Monday, the think tank said that 30 million people in Britain will be unable to afford what the public considers to be a decent standard of living by the time the current Parliament ends in 2024.

      They can’t afford it now. Though at least the study recognizes that this catastrophe isn’t transitory. It’s the new normal in Britain.

      What will the Brits have to sign on for in order to get “aid”? 100% open borders? Reintegration to the EU?

      1. Klaus Schwab isn’t cold and he won’t be missing any meals.

        Britain is a World Economic Forum success story.

        Globalists gonna globe.

      2. Get “aid” from whom? The EU is in worse shape than Britain. Germany — where most of the EU charity money came from — is on its knees due to lack of Russian natural gas. They can barely put their own oxygen mask on first, much less help others.

  11. Money is too expensive for most buyers, and sellers, especially those that bought in the recent period of cheap money, can’t sell their property without losing money.”

    Debt-fueled growth was never sustainable in the long run, especially with the Fed’s tsunami of funny money artificially depressing interest rates while setting the stage for future hyperinflation.

    1. “By the time builder Jeremy Seaton and I talked, he confirmed that what has happened in the market is that money has frozen up; nobody – builders, buyers, sellers – can afford to borrow or take the losses of a reduced sales price. ‘All this is going to put a lot of guys out of business,’ he told me.”

      Back in the early 80s California when interest rates were near 20% everything stopped, the roads were clear as people didn’t drive unless it was necessary. Unemployment was really high too.

      1. Couldn’t happen soon enough. The country needs a financial enema the likes we’ve never seen before. People driving Porsches and Land Rovers for pizza delivery? C’mon, man…….

        1. Remember the days of $500 cars. You bought it, drove it, added oil (never changed) and never did anything to it. After 10 to 20k miles on it, you sold it (probably broken down) for $200 to a junkyard or someone and then bought another $500 car.

          Used Land Rovers are just really expensive $500 cars. They aren’t worth fixing. MIght as well use them for pizza delivery.

        3. “….country needs a financial enema…”

          Perhaps the 50bps hike by the Fed a few hours ago will help push that rubber hose upstream just a bit farther.

          Was hoping that it would be 75bps or even 100bps, but certainly better than 25bps a lot of wiz-kid financial types were predicting.

    4. to arrange payments of up to $225,000 per person

      Half of it will be spent on cars, crack and hoes. The rest will simply be wasted.

        1. “I wonder how Al Roker’s doing.”

          People with sickle cell disease (SCD) are at greater risk than the general population for forming blood clots. A blood clot in one of the large veins, usually in a person’s leg or arm, is called a deep vein thrombosis (DVT). If a DVT is not treated, it can get bigger or break off and travel to the lungs. A blood clot in the lung is called pulmonary embolism (PE) and can cause death.

      2. I’m pretty sure they had some Chinese slaves.

        Leland Stanford’s railroad was largely built by Chinese “coolies.”

    1. They must be girding for Russian bombers or larger missiles since the Patriot missiles are not designed to counter the slow, low flying Iranian drones.

  14. “Anti-vax quackery”: Experts “stunned” after DeSantis demands grand jury probe into COVID vaccines (12/14/2022):

    “Doctors “outraged” after DeSantis pushes investigation and truther panel to refute CDC public health guidance”

    Clutch those pearls harder, globalist sh*tbags.

    “DeSantis held a roundtable with Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo and physicians before announcing his plan. DeSantis did not specify what types of purported wrongdoing the grand jury would investigate but mentioned alleged “crimes” related to vaccines.

    “We’ll be able to get the data whether they want to give it or not,” DeSantis said. “In Florida, it is illegal to mislead and misrepresent, especially when you are talking about the efficacy of a drug.”

    Ladapo, who has repeatedly pushed anti-vaccine talking points, said companies need to answer for instances of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, that have been reported in rare cases.

    “We will answer this question. It is a question that I am sure keeps the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna up late at night, hoping no one ever looks. But we’re going to look here in Florida”

    https://www.salon.com/2022/12/14/anti-vax-quackery-experts-stunned-after-desantis-demands-grand-jury-probe-into-vaccines/

    There are no “online safety experts” (hat tip to Glenn Greenwald) on this blog to censor the truth.

    COVID “vaccines” are not vaccines, they are deadly experimental mRNA gene altering poison that is specifically designed and intended to kill you.

    Say your goodbyes this Christmas, because half those seats at the table will be empty next year…

    1. “Rare” my arse. I personally know people who have the bizarre blood clots and other issues. Oddly, none of them want to admit it was the vaccine.

      Gosh, I wish there was a way I could get these people to write me into their wills. I’d have enough money to pay cash for a house in 5 years.

      Ok, sick joke, I know. But it is just sad.

      1. Meanwhile, the jab’s status remains experimental, still under Emergency USe Authorization and the page on the data sheet for the jab that covers side effects still only says “This page intentionally left blank”

        Safe and effective.

      2. “Rare” my arse. I personally know people who have the bizarre blood clots and other issues. Oddly, none of them want to admit it was the vaccine.

        I know someone who had a heart attack and she still refuses to believe it was the jab.

        Dare to be Stupid – Weird Al

        1. Yes, and a Military leaked document shows they knew that Ivermectin was a safe and effective cure for Covid.
          The Dr Fauci protocol of Remdesivir and respirators had a 90% death rate, whereby Doctors using ivermectin and other drugs had a 85% sucessful rate and even kept people from being hospitalized. These Doctors were censored and obstructed from curing Covid.
          If you have a known drug that treats a a disease, you don’t qualify for Emergency Use Authorization on a expierment all vaccine. , to begin with.

          The vaccine rollout was totally fraudulent in that they said the fake vaccine was safe and effective and you wouldn’t get Covid.
          They had blank r that obstructed informed

    2. Say your goodbyes this Christmas, because half those seats at the table will be empty next year…

      The survivors will blame it on climate change.

      1. It is somewhat sad that millions who “trusted the science” without being loudmouth @ssholes about getting injected with the mRNA poison.

        Anybody who posted a vaccine selfie on social media needs to die.

          2. “A hundred die so that a thousand may live. Some people die before their time so that others can live. It’s a cornerstone of civilization.” —General Timms, Mulholland Falls 1996

        2. “It is somewhat sad that millions who “trusted the science” without being loudmouth @ssholes about getting injected with the mRNA poison.”

          Hello Israel.

  15. A reader sent these in:

    Lance Lambert

    IF U.S. home prices fall 10% peak-to-trough, it’d take prices back to October 2021 levels. IF U.S. home prices fall 20% peak-to-trough, it’d take prices back to February 2021 levels.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1600364981530214400

    John Wake

    “The expectation of a ‘large and almost certain’ profit like a magnet attracts a lot of people entering the market. Together with the ‘panic buying’, they lead to a substantial jump in housing demand and hence an explosive expansion of housing prices” 2021

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1602754145709981696

    Mr. Skilling

    With $TSLA hitting $160, let’s check in on the clowns in Tesla Shareholders Facebook group
    Some of them are getting scared (despite fundamentals being strong!) and starting to sell. Others chime in saying they are glad Tesla is weeding out the “pretend to be long term investors”

    https://twitter.com/mr_skilling/status/1602712089872703490

    Bimbo Real Estate Agent logic
    Paid over ask in March
    Try to flip – fail
    Try to rent – fail
    Try to flip – fail
    Try to rent WAY lower – fail
    Try to sell – ??

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1602830314631471104

    Lance Lambert

    F**k 10%. Institutional investors want +20% discounts on new construction.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1602834540178939906

    🚩 Jeffrey Epstein & Bill Gates funded MIT’s Media Lab developing CBDC “Project Hamilton”, while SEC Chair Gensler was the Lab’s senior advisor & taught economics with Glenn Ellison, the father of SBF’s girlfriend and co-CEO of Alameda Research, Caroline Ellison.

    https://twitter.com/iLoveJaneAdams/status/1602463561111916546

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Now that a Fed pivot is already priced-in and inflation peaked, the Fed faces a new hurdle tomorrow. Investors are going to begin looking for signs of rate cuts into 2023. Tomorrow the Fed must emphasize that they would rather overtighten than risk inflation running for longer.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1602856509867757569

    Chart here indicates that there’s still around $1 trillion of the extraordinary stimulus “pig” still passing through the consumer “python” Estimated to be exhausted by mid-2023

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1602836734965780480

    UK housing most unaffordable since Victorian times 🔥 🔊music …😰

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1602735495083184130

    Inside China’s “social credit” system ⚠️ 🔊sound …🧐😰

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1602837394549522432

    Another one.. you can clearly see why Tesla is in meltdown. Operating expanses exceed everything else.. musk doesn’t want higher interest rates lol @eliant_capital

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1602760235663659008

    Food inflation vs health care
    Choose your fighter

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1602764863654313984

    According to BLS data.. medical services have been lowered..

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1602766691075002369

    You can read here how they rigged CPI with health care.. everything else is still increasing..

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1602771765167472640

    So basically health care insurance has lowered CPI but none of my followers witnessed lower prices.. lol.. We laugh about China’s economic data, seems like US became Chinese too 😂

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1602768038650060805

    FTX client’s funds => SBF pocket => Bankman-Fried Charitable Foundation
    Are we gonna talk about the trustees and the list of media outlets that got fed stolen money?

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1602908563768328194

    Sam Bankman-Fried, the second biggest Democratic donor in the 2022 election cycle and admitting to giving “dark money” to Republicans, is charged with violating campaign finance laws, in what could be one of the biggest infusion of illegal money into US politics, per Bloomberg.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1602835207182200833

    Twitter has not paid rent for its San Francisco headquarters or any of its global offices for weeks, per NYT.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1602774097204748291

    FTX used Quickbooks for accounting 🚩

    https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1602699974495670283

    Lance Lambert

    The ongoing home price correction through October 2022

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1602336916027981824

    John Wake

    “… shows today’s ARMs are no riskier than other mortgage products and that their lower monthly payments could increase access to homeownership…”
    I’ll bet a nickel that Urban Institute was saying the same thing in 2005.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1602666161295933440

    With a lower #CPI we can all look forward to, and cheer, the Fed’s next #pivot

    https://twitter.com/GratkeWealth/status/1602681880285184000

    They have tightened further and faster than ever in HISTORY.
    They are shrinking the BS faster than ever in HISTORY.
    Powell has told markets NOT to expect a return to free money to keep the plates spinning.
    Go ahead, trust your lyin’ eyes.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1602677929598935042

    RIP Zestymates
    Quote Tweet
    Diane Swonk

    The main message Powell will convey is that the Fed has agreed more measured hikes at warranted but they are not done yet. The dispersions on rate hikes in the Fed’s summary of economic projections is expected to be larger in 2024-2025.

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1602685444810018816

    Lyn Alden

    The disinflation cycle continues. I think 2024/2025 will risk another inflationary cycle, but for the time being, the month-over-month and year-over-year growth rate of prices is cooling off.

    https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1602699933680893955

    Unpopular opinion: HOUSING IS STILL F***ED DESPITE INFLATION COOLING.

    https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1602702863259557889

    When a house makes more in asset price inflation than the gross salary of a family of 4 with both parents working full time jobs, you have a societal problem.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1602449509698924544

    John Wake

    “As recently as August 2020, Carvana ranked as the most valuable Arizona-based corporation, with a stock-market value or capitalization at the time of $33 billion, but a sharp slide in its share price has pushed its stock price down nearly 99%”

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1602714435323240449

    SBF didn’t « borrow » some client’s funds to plug a couple of trading holes and bet on a come back…he didn’t « use » client’s funds hoping to gain at the poker table and make it all back. He did that too. But most shockingly, he stole client’s money to hand it to politicians

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1602675076108795908

    1. ‘FTX used Quickbooks for accounting’

      I joked about this recently. Truth is stranger than jokes. But there were books, such as it is with QB. I used to have to go in and sort these out because they had an account called ‘suspension’ when the in-putter had no idea where to categorize things. Sometimes 90% of entries would be in that account. Now that’s some bean countin!

      1. “…FTX used Quickbooks for accounting…”

        On the bright side, QB is a step up from a cigar box.

        Truth *is* stranger than fiction.

        You just can’t make this stuff up.

    2. 🚩 Jeffrey Epstein & Bill Gates funded MIT’s Media Lab developing CBDC “Project Hamilton”, while SEC Chair Gensler was the Lab’s senior advisor & taught economics with Glenn Ellison, the father of SBF’s girlfriend and co-CEO of Alameda Research, Caroline Ellison.

      This one needed to be singled out.

    3. “Twitter has not paid rent for its San Francisco headquarters or any of its global offices for weeks, per NYT.”

      I haven’t paid my mortgage in weeks either. Four weeks to be exact. It’s due tomorrow.

        1. NYT headline:

          Musk Shakes Up Twitter’s Legal Team as He Looks to Cut More Costs

          Twitter has stopped paying rent on offices and is considering not paying severance packages to former employees, among other measures.

          “They have also instructed employees to not pay vendors in anticipation of potential litigation, the people said.”

          To cut costs, Twitter has not paid rent for its San Francisco headquarters or any of its global offices for weeks, three people close to the company said. Twitter has also refused to pay a $197,725 bill for private charter flights made the week of Mr. Musk’s takeover, according to a copy of a lawsuit filed in New Hampshire District Court and obtained by The New York Times.

          Twitter’s leaders have also discussed the consequences of denying severance payments to thousands of people who have been laid off since the takeover, two people familiar with the talks said. And Mr. Musk has threatened employees with lawsuits if they talk to the media and “act in a manner contrary to the company’s interest,” according to an internal email sent last Friday.

          1. Thanks for the feedback. Now pay $8.

            But seriously, it’s become quite fashionable to run hit pieces on Elon right now. NYT’s sounds run-of-the-mill. Even Slate couldn’t resist a dig in the real estate store that Ben posted above: “where Juul’s old headquarters—down the block from Twitter’s improvised dormitory—is for sale for $150 million.”

            Not gonna worry about these things. Elon is well known for running a tight ship and tossing ballast, and I’m sure he’s got the best lawyers money can buy. This will be worked out eventually.

          3. Keep in mind that Elon has made himself a prime target for Progressive’s attacks and that the NYT is their tool just about completely. I’d assume their “news” is constructed backwards from the desired message.

            Like Oxy, I haven’t paid my rent is weeks either!

        2. “Skirting laws and regulations”

          In which case any violations will be litigated, proven, and fines appropriately paid. Look, the excerpt from the NYT article is weak. They’re spinning a couple rumors into a vaguely-verbed story. As they always do. Actually it sounds like they are still working out who owed what monies to whom during that funky transition period in October. That includes the rent and the expenses.

          As for not paying severance, that “discussion” could be as easy as this:

          Elon: Let’s lay off all the useless meditators and snack-eaters NOW.
          Lawyer: Sir, there’s a WARN Act. You gotta tell them two months in advance. Easy way to comply is to give out two months severance.
          Elon: grumble grumble give ’em three no biggie. But the 2500 non-employee contractors, there’s no WARN Act for them, right? They can go NOW.
          Lawyer: Legit and done, sir.

          And firing for leaking to the press? Yeah, probably an NDA included as a condition to not be laid off.

    4. “The expectation of a ‘large and almost certain’ profit like a magnet attracts a lot of people entering the market. Together with the ‘panic buying’, they lead to a substantial jump in housing demand and hence an explosive expansion of housing prices” 2021

      This has always been, and will always be, the case. But you need the loose lending to facilitate it. Without the access to the cheap money, it simply won’t materialize. It’s a credit bubble, and it’s still here.

    3. “This is the Democratic Party”

      Credit Rush Limbaugh for saying the “Democrat Party” instead of Democratic.

      I personally prefer to drop the article “the” and write Democrat Party, not the Democrat Party.

      The same way you would simply say A.I.D.S. and not “the A.I.D.S.” or herpes and not “the herpes.”

      1. Americans say “I was in the hospital”, while Brits say “I was in Hospital” (no ‘the’).

        Separated by a common language.

        1. In the HBO original series Episodes starring Matt LeBlanc from Friends as a washed up actor and a British actor and actress who write his TeeVee scripts there is a scene about this.

    4. And lemme guess, this drag queen’s Tweet was allowed to stand without any strikes or suspensions or shadow bans?

  17. Remember these three words: registration, confiscation, extermination.

    The Atlantic — One Nation Under Guns (12/14/2022):

    “For public safety and gun policy, the Bruen opinion is proving nothing short of seismic. Even as the nation struggles with yet another series of mass shootings, courts across the country are rushing to deal with a spate of lawsuits and motions that will create regulatory chaos over firearms. Many of these cases are tailored to produce appeals that may ultimately go up to a Supreme Court predisposed to the broadest possible interpretations of Second Amendment rights.

    In the Bruen opinion, Thomas made clear that, henceforth, the Court’s conservative majority would judge all firearms regulations by a new originalist standard: If there is no historical proof of a gun law linked to 1791 or 1868—the years when the Second and Fourteenth Amendments, respectively, were ratified—then any modern law restricting firearms is liable to be ruled unconstitutional. Never mind that any teenager with a modern AR-15 rifle can fire several times every second, whereas a well-trained 18th-century soldier could fire a musket, at best, three or four times a minute.”

    https://archive.ph/q36Kl

    The Second Amendment was never about hunting animals for food.

    Its purpose is for the resistance to, and overthrow of, tyrannical government.

    300+ million guns in the hands of U.S. civilians is the only thing that prevented the implementation of medical tyranny as seen in Canada, UK, Western Europe, AUS, and NZ.

  18. The Signs Pointing to the Housing Market Cooling Off
    NBC10 Philadelphia
    Dec 13, 2022
    NBC10’s Randy Gyllenhaal looks at buyers getting more control as the housing market appears to cool off. What’s behind the slowdown and what does it mean to home buyers and sellers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhd7W1ZqqR8

    2:12.

  19. Housing prices drop in Victorville CA | Find out Why?
    Living in the High Desert CA
    Dec 13, 2022
    Victorville California housing market has change prices are dropping interest rates are going up and down and we really don’t know where the housing markets going to end but you are a couple of things that you should take into consideration and I think you should know about the price drops in Victorville California housing market .
    How much does it cost to live in the high desert of California? The high desert is also known as Victor Valley, Victorville California, Hesperia, Oak Hills, Barstow, Apple Valley. There are many factors that contribute to these costs of living here this what we cover In the video we talked about housing, gas prices and most importantly how much does it cost to buy a home in the high desert ca.
    You Can have a different lifestyle it all depends what you’re looking for in the high desert there’s a lot of off-roading it snows up here in the winter times maybe one day or 3 and also what you’re going to find in some of the areas they have a really nice small town feel in Helendale is one of them and also Spring Valley Lake is a very popular Community up here in the high desert. let’s go over the cons of living in the high desert so a big con that I think it’s is that the high desert has is that there is a lot of traffic on the 15 Freeway so if you have to commute that something that you’re going to have to think about before moving out here to this area is that a lot of people are moving up so there’s a lot more traffic going down the hill and then going up there and then on Fridays and Sundays we have a lot of traffic as well because people are coming home from Vegas because Vegas is two and a half to three hours away which is pretty cool I mean I enjoyed my time going to Vegas so trust me I’m pretty happy that we’re close to Las Vegas. Also another con is if you drive around the high desert you’re going to be wondering why is there so many car washes in the area cuz there’s car washes everywhere there’s one almost in every other block and that’s because there’s so much dirt up here that your car literally is always dirty outside and inside because you’re just so much dirt around and I think that’s the biggest thing that there’s so many car washes in almost every other corner of every area you’ll find a car wash so when I first moved up here to the High Desert from Riverside I was like oh why is there so many car washes but now, I know why because that your car is always dirty. Another con is that I have to say I guess the home prices are have gone up quite a bit I know a lot of people were looking at that as a pro thing to have but I think it’s a big, because now some of the areas are really out of out of control when it comes to pricing so you really have to take out good luck I’ve been talking to a couple of people that they have moved up here from other areas and they’re kind of seeing that it’s almost the same thing just because I have to commute down for work or yeah so I don’t know if that’s a con or pro in the up a good thing a probe to have affordable housing up here because you have to kind of factor in a lot a lot of factors.
    All right so let me go back to Lifestyle now I’m in the high desert a lot of the neighborhoods and properties are very different and you going to have some properties that are a half an acre acre 2 Acres 5 acres and I have some properties that only have maybe six thousand square feet and it’s just pure house and no land so you’re going to have to see what kind of Lifestyle you are wanting because they do offer you different ways of living up here in the high desert you can be closer to the mall you can be closer to the freeway you can move down to Apple Valley you can move down to Spring Valley Lake and live on the lake you can live go to Hallandale and live next to the lake there some it all depends on what your needs are what your family needs are. Living in apple valley ca is nice in that area but also has its bad areas to live.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9y2YCmPtmt0

    17:48.

    1. Commuting from Vallejo to San Jose and back in the same day has never been an easy feat especially in her 80s gas hog.

  21. At what point will it dawn on the masses that the problem wasn’t FTX per se. Rather cryptocurrency itself doesn’t work as an asset class, due to its lack of fundamental value.

    1. Binance withdrawals jump to $3 billion in 24 hours, research firm says
      By Michelle Toh, CNN
      Updated 7:36 AM EST, Wed December 14, 2022

      Hong Kong(CNN) Investors withdrew as much as $3 billion from Binance on Tuesday, according to blockchain analytics firm Nansen, as a deluge of negative headlines about the cryptocurrency industry rattled users of the world’s largest exchange.

      Andrew Thurman, content lead for Nansen, told CNN that at its peak, Binance saw “as high as $3 billion in net outflows” over a 24-hour period. A report about an ongoing investigation by the US Justice Department into the exchange was a factor in investors’ nervousness, he said.

      “Concurrently, a large market maker, Jump, was found to have withdrawn huge sums from Binance with no deposits over the past few weeks — ultimately seems to have caused jitters among both retail and institutional users,” Thurman said. “In short, it’s a lot of money headed out, and that’s spooked some folks.”
      …

    2. I’m curious why the stock market went down on one of the most widely anticipated rate hikes in history. Did bulls have their heads buried in the sand before it happened according to the loudly announced plan?

    1. He was unfit well before the election. In 2024 the Dems will give the country the finger and “re-elect” him, even if he is 100% incoherent by then.

      Some years ago, I had a relative in a “memory care unit”. When I visited some of the other inmates would interact with me. Most of them were far more coherent than Brandon.

  28. This is a urine soaked mattress article.

    The Hill — Liberals struggle to find viable Twitter alternative after Musk takeover (12/14/2022):

    “Elon Musk’s conquest of the Twitter-verse has sent hordes of mostly left-leaning tweeters scrambling — if not for the exits, then at least for a social-media backup plan.  

    Twitter’s defectors and discontents set out in waves, searching for viable alternatives. The first broke in April, when Twitter accepted Musk’s $44-billion bid for the social media company. The second rolled out in October, when he completed the purchase.

    Further wavelets and ripples have followed the Tesla billionaire’s more incendiary moves as tweeter in chief: firing half Twitter’s staff, reinstating the suspended account of former President Trump and, more recently, mocking both the queer and public health communities with a five-word post, “My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci.”

    There are only two genders, pearl clutchers. Go spend some time on a farm or visit a zoo.

    “Some of Twitter’s disaffected have closed their accounts. Many more have kept their Twitter handles while adopting new ones on other sites, thronging the virtual gates of previously unheralded platforms Mastodon, Hive and Post.  

    Now, social media colonists are laboring to rebuild their networks on new sites while keeping an eye on the old one, to see how the Twitter wars play out.”

    https://thehill.com/policy/technology/3774042-liberals-struggle-to-find-viable-twitter-alternative-after-musk-takeover/

    You could always just go back to Reddit.

    1. The Hill — Liberals struggle to find viable Twitter alternative after Musk takeover (12/14/2022

      So they finally admit it was a leftist echo chamber?

    2. “There are only two genders, pearl clutchers. Go spend some time on a farm or visit a zoo.”

      True! LMFAO!!

  30. ‘The trend that is becoming increasingly evident is that house prices are falling almost twice as fast as condo prices’

    Indisputably so.

    1. But all the condo units aren’t on the market yet.

      “Hootman lived in a condominium above the victims, Martin County Sheriff William Snyder said”

      Martin County man shot, killed neighbors after ‘ongoing dispute,’ sheriff’s office says

      By: Scott Sutton
      Dec 05, 2022

      MARTIN COUNTY, Fla. — Martin County detectives said an “ongoing dispute” between neighbors ended with an elderly couple gunned down over the weekend.

      After he was arrested, Hootman told detectives that several days ago that Henry Wallace came to his apartment and confronted Hootman’s wife, cussing and yelling at her.

      He said that Henry Wallace was upset that a community laundry room door was left open.

      “The suspect’s wife said that the male victim was unkind to her. She wouldn’t be specific,” Snyder said. “He was unkind, sounds like he might have been abrasive.”

      After he was arrested, Hootman told detectives that several days ago that Henry Wallace came to his apartment and confronted Hootman’s wife, cussing and yelling at her.

      He said that Henry Wallace was upset that a community laundry room door was left open.

      “The suspect’s wife said that the male victim was unkind to her. She wouldn’t be specific,” Snyder said. “He was unkind, sounds like he might have been abrasive.”

      Then on Saturday, the day of the shooting, Hootman said he went downstairs to check his mail at the community mailbox. Hootman said that Henry Wallace was also at the mailbox.

      Hootman said he told Henry Wallace that he needed to apologize for the confrontation, but Wallace ignored him and attempted to push past him to walk away.

      “I lost my temper,” Hootman told the detectives.

      The suspect said he then retrieved his 9mm pistol from his pocket and charged a round into the chamber.

      Hootman said he then pointed the weapon at Henry Wallace with both hands and shot him two times in the chest area, according to the arrest report.

      He told detectives that Ginger Wallace, who was also the HOA president of the condos, then exited their apartment and started yelling and screaming.

      Hootman said she was standing close to her husband’s body when he raised his pistol again with both hands and fired two more shots at Ginger Wallace, killing her as well.

      After the shootings, Hootman said he walked back upstairs to his apartment and set his pistol on a wooden stand in the living room. He said he then told his wife to “call the police, I just shot Henry and Ginger.”

      The gunman later told police that he was “so sorry, wish I could take it back” and later wrote an apology letter while he was being interviewed by detectives.

      Snyder said he feels that Ginger Wallace’s role as the HOA president played a part in the shooting.

      “At least the two confrontations, that we know about prior to the double homicide, all stem from HOA rules, HOA enforcement rules, the demeanor of the female victim and her husband,” Snyder said.

      Hootman faces two counts of first-degree murder.

      https://www.wptv.com/news/treasure-coast/region-martin-county/martin-county-man-shot-killed-neighbors-after-ongoing-dispute-sheriffs-office-says

    2. That’s pretty interesting. It seems like condos normally CR8R faster than SFRs, at least when lots of units at the same condo park are on the market, which sets off cutthroat competition between near identical units.

      Perhaps it’s different this time, due to a dearth of inventory. The condo CR8R action may pick up as more units come on the market next year.

    1. Investor’s Business Daily
      10 Tesla Investors Lose $132.5 Billion From Musk’s Twitter Fiasco
      FacebookTwitterLinkedIn
      MATT KRANTZ 02:44 PM ET 12/14/2022

      Tesla (TSLA) investors are growing tired of Elon Musk’s Twitter fiasco. And for good reason.

      The 10 largest investors in the electric-vehicle maker’s stock, including ETF giants Vanguard, BlackRock (BLK) and Musk himself, lost nearly $133 billion since Twitter’s board accepted Musk’s buyout on April 25, says an Investor’s Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSmith.

      It cost Musk the position as the richest person in the world. But he’s not alone feeling the pain.

      Tesla Stock Dropping Like A Rock

      Tesla’s value is down more than 52% since the Twitter buyout was approved on April 25, while the S&P 500 is only off 5.5%. And Tesla stock is off 29% since the deal closed on Oct. 27, much worse than the S&P 500’s 6.6% gain in that time. Shares are down again Wednesday, by 3.4% to 155.38.

      That’s shredding a jaw-dropping amount of wealth for Tesla investors. The value of Tesla is down $339 billion from the Twitter deal’s approval and $206 billion from the close.

      Investors worry that Musk is so infatuated with Twitter, he’s not minding Tesla.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/tesla-stock-investors-lose-132-5-billion-from-musks-twitter-fiasco/

      1. “…electric vehicles and cryptocurrency are key future trends…”

        That’s pretty dumb logic to support risk asset purchases going into a recession.

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