Increasingly Anxious Sellers Went Through The Five Stages Of Real-Estate Grief
A report from the Review Journal in Nevada. “With builders slashing prices and buyers pulling back, Las Vegas’ home construction market kept hitting the brakes in November. ‘Over the past few months though, the conversation has changed from how high prices have gone to how far and how quickly they are falling,’ Las Vegas-based Home Builders Research president Andrew Smith wrote. Last month, builders’ average base asking price in Southern Nevada was $581,531, down 4 percent, or almost $27,000, from May, Smith reported. Leading the pack was Taylor Morrison Home Corp., whose average base price of $527,382 last month was down 21 percent, or more than $136,000, from May, according to Smith.”
From WTOP. “Home sellers and their agents often set a price based on comparable sales of similar homes nearby. But their house may not be worth what their neighbor’s house sold for just a few months ago. ‘There are situations where past sales are higher than what one might reasonably expect right now,’ said Corey Burr, The Burr Group, in Chevy Chase, Maryland. ‘If listing agents rely too much on recent sales going back six to nine months, they might be a risk of mispricing properties on the high side.'”
“Burr said the D.C.-area housing market has slowed down precipitously — and he’s seen it himself. At this point last year, he had 11 home settlements scheduled for January. This year, he has three scheduled. The local housing market has seen a drop in sales, but homes are still selling, with many buyers making offers that are 10% less than the listing price. More than 50% of houses are selling below asking price, though averaging only about 1% to 5% below.”
Axios Austin in Texas. “Average home prices started to creep down, especially in Austin’s northern suburbs, between July and October, according to Zillow data. In the greater Austin area, home prices have dropped by about 14% from their peak in May, going from a median of $560,000 to $480,000 in October. Meanwhile, average rent increases have slowed as the market cools. ‘This is a great reminder that 2023 will be a great time to buy a home without having to go wildly over the asking price, as buyers have in the past few years,’ says Ashley Jackson, 2023 president of the Austin Board of Realtors.”
The Colorado Springs Business Journal. “The Colorado Springs residential real estate market is returning to a more ‘normal’ state, local agents say. ‘On the one hand, it’s a ‘correction,’ says Harry Salzman, broker/associate at ERA Shields/Salzman Real Estate Services. ‘But what we’ve had in the past couple of years was not realistic.’ What it boils down to, he says, is that the market has cooled and the unprecedented seller’s market has ended. But like most real estate experts across the country, Salzman doesn’t foresee a crash or drastic downturn in 2023, but rather, ‘a return to what was prior to 2020 — a normal, healthy market.'”
WTSP in Florida. “Investigators in Sarasota County said they have a warrant out for the arrest of a contractor who allegedly scammed elderly couples out of their money. They said the victims wound up paying thousands of dollars to Sarkis Konsulian to build homes, but he kept asking for more and never finished. According to police in North Port, Konsulian used his European background to target and gain the trust of his victims who were elderly immigrant couples, with some language barrier. Zofia Kaczor said she and her husband gave Konsulian $100,000 and signed a contract with him to finish the house by late spring of last year before he absconded. ‘In February, I heard rumors that he stole money, and he went to Moscow,’ she said.”
“The North Port Police Department said Konsulian shut down his business and left the Kaczors and other families with just an empty lot, no home and short on funds. Detectives say there are up to 40 cases in total between Charlotte and Sarasota counties with seven of them in North Port alone.”
The Orange County Business Journal in California. “A turbulent 2022 is blending into an uncertain 2023 for Orange County’s luxury market. Many buyers and sellers are sitting on the sidelines to gain some clarity after a slow pace of sales last year. Last year kicked off with some residual demand from the pandemic frenzy that sent buyers paying top dollar for new homes, but that fervor was cut by looming economic headwinds; by May, mortgage interest rates were up 69% year-to-date, according to Steve High of Villa Real Estate. ‘Fewer buyers translated to fewer offers and fewer listings going under contract,’ High said. ‘By July, the number of homes for sale had doubled and nearly one-third of the listing inventory had experienced at least one price reduction.'”
From Market Watch. “The housing market downturn didn’t spare the Big Apple. High mortgage rates and low demand from buyers depressed sales in New York City in 2022, according to a new report by real-estate agency Coldwell Banker Warburg. ‘Buyer caution reasserted itself through all price ranges as increasingly anxious sellers went through the five stages of real-estate grief,’ the report stated. The final stage of grief among sellers in New York City was to accept price reductions. Despite reluctance from sellers, ‘most properties during 2022 have required price reductions of at least 10%,’ the report stated, ‘and some far more.'”
From House Digest. “Data from the Mortgage Bakers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Application Survey paints a clear picture of this. It found that the number of applications for mortgages in the last two weeks of December 2022 fell by 13.2%, and that is with seasonal adjustments. Joel Kan, the Vice President with MBA, shared, ‘The end of the year is typically a slower time for the housing market, and with mortgage rates still well above 6% and the threats of a recession looming, mortgage applications continued to decline over the past two weeks to the lowest levels since 1996.'”
From Bloomberg. “Federal Reserve officials last month affirmed their resolve to bring down inflation, cautioning that an ‘unwarranted’ loosening of financial conditions would hurt their efforts to achieve price stability. ‘A big concern of their messaging here is that the market is pricing in cuts by the second half of this year,’ said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. With inflation too high, officials ‘realize that the risk of overtightening is just something that they have to swallow and stomach,’ he said.”
Multi-Housing News. “The multifamily industry is bracing for more interest rate hikes in the first half of 2023. Three Pillars Capital Group in Houston was closing a $30 million acquisition in December but finding value-add deals in the second half of 2022 was generally difficult, noted Gautam Goyal, CEO. ‘There’s still a big mismatch between buyers and sellers but anybody that needs to sell now or for the next 12 months is definitely having to face reality that their assets are not worth what they were six months ago and they’re going to have to take a huge haircut in order to get rid of it,’ Goyal said.”
“‘If somebody had a fixed-rate mortgage that’s coming to term now or sometime in the near future, their deals don’t pencil anymore because they were predicated on a 3 percent or 3.5 percent mortgage, and that mortgage is now over 6 percent,’ said Jonathan Bennett, president of AmTrust Realty in Manhattan, which owns and operates 12 million square feet of multifamily and office space in New York, Chicago and Tampa, Fla. ‘And the values are not matching up either. So, the bank is saying, if you want to stick with us, you’re going to have to pay down this mortgage by 30 percent. Many owners and operators don’t have that and have to come up with a solution.'”
“Noah Hochman, co-chief Investment Officer at TruAmerica Multifamily, said one problem is many syndicators and sponsors have not been cycle-tested and are probably over-levered without a hedging strategy. ‘They’re probably not going to be able to meet the lenders’ extension test, and they’re going to have to be prepared to write a big check to either buy a new insurance cap that expired or rebalance a loan or do a cash-in refinancing,’ Hochman said.”
“Reuben Robin, CEO of Concord Cos., a Beverly Hills, Calif.,-based real estate firm that owns multifamily in California, Texas, Illinois and New Jersey, sold about 70 percent of its Texas assets in 2021. With the bid-ask spread making value-add deals difficult, Concord has pivoted and is focusing on non-performing loans. Robin said Concord was buying a portfolio of eight NPLs at the end of 2022 and anticipated more in 2023. ‘We’re looking at acquiring $50 million of NPL now and looking at another batch of $220 million behind that,’ Robin said.”
CTV News in Canada. “The housing market just isn’t what it used to be. Residential home sales in the Vancouver area plummeted almost 52 per cent in December 2022 compared to the same month the previous year. Year-over-year sales sank about 34 per cent, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. ‘Prices are down about 10 per cent of the peak over the past six months and that’s…over the whole market,’ said Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics.”
“Final numbers aren’t out yet for the Fraser Valley, but realtors say they’ve seen significant drops there too. ‘I mean it’s just down. We’re dramatically down,’ said Del Touet, owner or Royal LePage Preferred Realty in Mission. Touet said sales at his office took a big hit last year, dropping 28-30 per cent. Housing prices fell too. ‘Pricing in the Mission market is down 19 to 21 per cent overall,’ he said.”
The Globe and Mail. “The assessed value of homes rose in almost every community in British Columbia last year, but new official estimates show much smaller increases across B.C. than 2021′s massive spikes because rising interest rates had already begun cooling many of these real estate markets. Assessor Bryan Murao said these assessments are a snapshot of the local markets on July 1, 2022, when prices had already begun falling in many places after peaking before the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates.”
“”Jesse Kleine, a realtor in Vancouver and its eastern suburbs, said these latest assessments will further confuse some sellers as to the true value of their homes. For example, Mr. Kleine said, a three-bedroom rancher he was showing this week in Langley was first listed last July for $1.14-million. The owners have since dropped the price three times and are now asking $998,888. But, he said, their new assessment just pegged the value at $1.25-million.”
“In a normal market, an assessment might be off by up to $100,000 owing to not taking into account a house’s location on a busy street or the state of its interior, said Mr. Kleine, who has been selling real estate for six years. But, now with the downturn taking shape in Metro Vancouver, he said these assessments ‘can easily be off by a quarter million.’ That is leading to some difficult conversations when an agent meets with a seller to discuss what price to list their unit at, said Mr. Kleine, who said he just sold a house in Abbotsford for $899,000 that was assessed for $1.05-million.”
The Korea Times. “Home prices in Korea are cooling at a jaw-dropping clip amid soaring borrowing costs and an economic slowdown, portending that indebted home owners may face the toughest-ever challenge this year. ‘As demand (for homes) sharply decreased, potential buyers remain hesitant in buying homes. More and more people expect home prices to fall further down the road,’ said the Korea Real Estate Board.”
“There is other data pointing to a further drop in home prices. The number of unsold newly built homes surged to some 47,000 as of October last year, from a meager 17,000 units at the end of 2021. This year, the figure may surely reach between 60,000 and 70,000. For indebted home owners, a rising market rate means a bigger interest repayment as most property loans here are tied to benchmark rates. In the end, those who jumped on the bandwagon to buy homes with heavy debt out of fear of missing out will be forced to sell their home at cheaper prices than they have bought.”
The Guardian on Australia. “Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart posted record annual falls in property prices in 2022 as higher interest rates sapped demand and amounted to the largest national decline since the global financial crisis, industry analysts say. Sydney prices for dwellings – houses and apartments – shrank 12.1% last year, or more than double the 5.3% average national drop, according to CoreLogic. But prices remained more than 8% higher than pre-Covid levels, with the median price holding just above the $1m mark.”
“Melbourne’s 8.1% slide in average prices was the largest fall in a single calendar year in the data used by CoreLogic, which goes back to the 1980s. Prices remain above 2020 levels but those gains are ‘looking precarious,’ CoreLogic said, with median prices about 1.5% above pre-Covid levels at over $750,000. The 6.9% decline in prices recorded in Hobart in 2022 was also a record, but made only a dent in the Covid-era rise which saw home prices increase by more than a third since March 2020. Prices in Brisbane kept rising until June but have since dropped 9.4%. It left prices in the Queensland capital up about 1.1% overall. Adelaide’s housing peak came in July and the 1.3% reduction since then barely eroded the 44.7% gain through the upswing, CoreLogic said.”
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Covid vaccines are poison.
Covid vaccines are money makers…as long as they’re compulsory!
‘Leading the pack was Taylor Morrison Home Corp., whose average base price of $527,382 last month was down 21 percent, or more than $136,000, from May’
What does that do to cray cray buyers Andy?
‘Burr said the D.C.-area housing market has slowed down precipitously…many buyers making offers that are 10% less than the listing price’
That’s the spirit!
Muh Home Equity is melting…..
How is your favorite cryptocurrency bank doing so far in 2023?
Banks
Silvergate Stock Sinks as Crypto Bank Says Deposits Have Plunged
By Jack Denton
Updated Jan. 5, 2023 7:31 am ET / Original Jan. 5, 2023 7:07 am ET
Shares in Silvergate have plunged across the last year in tandem with crypto prices.
Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
Shares in Silvergate Capital (SI +27.10%) plunged Thursday, reversing big gains from the previous session, as the bank serving the cryptocurrency industry revealed that deposits have plunged and that it has been forced to sell assets at steep losses.
Silvergate (ticker: SI) stock tumbled 41% in premarket trading after the company released preliminary fourth-quarter financial results. The share-price losses come after a 27% rally on Wednesday, which happened in tandem with a big surge in stocks exposed to the cryptocurrency sector, including Coinbase Global (COIN +12.20%) and MicroStrategy (MSTR +13.82%).
As crypto FTX collapsed in November amid allegations of fraud, investors raced to withdraw assets from crypto exchanges and platforms. Silvergate wasn’t spared as it appeared to experience a bank run.
Deposits at the bank plunged by $8.1 billion from the end of September to the end of December, the company said. Silvergate revealed that it was forced to sell off $5.2 billion in debt securities to accommodate lower deposit levels and maintain liquidity, leading to a loss on the sale of securities and related derivatives exceeding $700 million.
The $718 million fourth-quarter loss linked to selling assets at fire sale prices is more than twice as much as Silvergate’s net income since at least 2016, including estimates for 2022 profit, according to FactSet data. The bank also said Thursday that it was reducing its headcount by around 200 employees, or 40% of staff, “in order to account for the economic realities facing the business and industry today.”
…
https://www.barrons.com/articles/silvergate-stock-crypto-bank-deposits-51672920454
Business
Crypto Bank Juno Tells Customers to Self-Custody or Sell Amid Custodian Wyre’s Turmoil
Juno’s current custodian, Wyre, will liquidate in January.
By Elizabeth Napolitano
AccessTimeIcon
Jan 4, 2023 at 4:58 p.m. PST
…
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/01/05/crypto-bank-juno-tells-customers-to-self-custody-or-sell-amid-custodian-wyres-turmoil/
Policy/Tech/Crypto
The Fed, FDIC, and currency comptroller are warning banks about messing with crypto / ‘The agencies have significant safety and soundness concerns with business models that are concentrated in crypto-asset-related activities.’
By Mitchell Clark
Jan 3, 2023, 2:54 PM PST
…
https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/3/23537615/crypto-banks-exposure-warning-fdic-federal-reserve-currency-comptroller
The Financial Times
Digital currencies
Silvergate shares tumble as crypto bank reveals $8.1bn fall in deposits
US-listed lender to cut 40% of staff as it reels from FTX collapse
Silvergate is also under scrutiny from US lawmakers, who say it showed ‘egregious failure’ over its involvement with the crypto investment firm Alameda Research
Nikou Asgari in London and Joshua Franklin in New York 2 hours ago
Clients pulled $8.1bn in deposits from Silvergate during a “crisis of confidence” late last year, forcing the crypto-focused US bank to sell assets and underscoring how the implosion of FTX reached the regulated financial sector.
The California-based group’s disclosure on Thursday showing its deposits from digital asset customers shrank to $3.8bn on December 31 from $11.9bn at the end of September sent its shares plummeting as much as 41 per cent in New York trading.
Silvergate, which is a Federal Reserve member bank and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, has come under heavy pressure over the past year as crypto asset prices have tumbled and several big players have collapsed into bankruptcy. The bank’s share price had already tumbled 88 per cent in 2022.
…
“$8.1bn in deposits”
That’ll keep even Zelenskyy going for a few weeks.
CNBC.com
TECH
Crypto lender Genesis Trading lays off 30% of workforce
PUBLISHED THU, JAN 5 2023 2:49 PM EST
UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
Rohan Goswami
KEY POINTS
– Genesis Trading, a crypto lender, will eliminate 60 positions, or 30% of its workforce, as it attempts to economize and stave off a bankruptcy filing.
– Genesis was hit hard by the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, a major client, freezing redemptions shortly after FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in November 2022.
– Barry Silbert’s Digital Capital Group is Genesis’ parent company, and has been under fire from prominent investors over the length of the withdrawal freeze and a lack of action from executives.
…
The Financial Times
Opinion Lex
Silvergate Capital: cryptoland finally gets its proper bank run
Shares in California-based group plummet after it announces customers pulled $8bn in deposits
Various cryptocurrencies on top of a dollar bill
Silvergate offers a payments network for digital exchanges and platforms
9 hours ago
Finally, a genuine bank run in cryptoland. Silvergate Capital on Thursday announced deposits from its digital assets customers fell from about $12bn to just $4bn in the fourth quarter. To fund those withdrawal requests, the California-based bank first relied on borrowings and then turned to selling off $5bn of debt securities in its portfolio. These portfolio sales led to a paper loss on those transactions of more than $700mn.
Silvergate catered to institutional crypto investors. One of its main products offered a payments network for digital exchanges and platforms. It had worked with FTX, which like Celsius Holding and Voyager Digital, all succumbed to bankruptcy when unable to satisfy withdrawal requests following a collapse in cryptocurrency prices.
Speaking of dissatisfaction, Silvergate’s shares nearly halved on Thursday. The company insisted it retains plenty of excess liquidity. However, the loss incurred from the securities sale will deplete its equity capital. Its book value stood at $1.3bn at end September.
…
The Financial Times
Binance
SEC intervenes on Binance US bid to buy assets of bankrupt crypto lender
Regulator’s move regarding assets of Voyager Digital highlights its increasing scrutiny of crypto exchange
The US Securities and Exchange Commission headquarters in Washington, DC
The SEC objection to the Binance US deal comes as the collapse of FTX raises concerns over the opaque relationships between linked crypto entities
Scott Chipolina and Joshua Oliver in London 18 hours ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission has intervened in a deal that would see Binance US buy the assets of a bankrupt crypto lender, in a sign of how US authorities are stepping up their scrutiny of the digital asset exchange.
Wall Street’s regulator filed an objection to Binance US’s proposed $1bn acquisition of assets belonging to Voyager Digital, which fell into bankruptcy last summer as a sharp downturn in token prices prompted the collapse of several once-prominent crypto companies.
Binance, the world’s biggest digital asset exchange, and its global affiliates have come under increasing focus among crypto investors and regulators after the collapse last year of FTX consolidated the crypto empire’s leading role in the industry.
…
‘In February, I heard rumors that he stole money, and he went to Moscow’
Well, it was cheaper than renting Zofia.
“According to police in North Port, Konsulian used his European background to target and gain the trust of his victims who were elderly immigrant couples, with some language barrier.”
The flock getting fleeced by a trusted member.
‘they’re going to have to take a huge haircut in order to get rid of it’
‘So, the bank is saying, if you want to stick with us, you’re going to have to pay down this mortgage by 30 percent. Many owners and operators don’t have that and have to come up with a solution’
‘they’re going to have to be prepared to write a big check to either buy a new insurance cap that expired or rebalance a loan or do a cash-in refinancing’
Big check? I’ll have you know this is THE holy grail of investing!
Wa is a cash in refi?
Wa is a cash in refi?
Sounds like a big check, just with your name at the bottom.
And stained with a few tears!
In the greater Austin area, home prices have dropped by about 14% from their peak in May, going from a median of $560,000 to $480,000 in October
I read the above and just started laughing out loud.
We have friends who bought there during the frenzy. Hope they love the house, because they won’t be selling any time soon.
Only another 30% or so to go.
‘Over the past few months though, the conversation has changed from how high prices have gone to how far and how quickly they are falling,’ Las Vegas-based Home Builders Research president Andrew Smith wrote.
Gosh, but if FOMO turns to Fear of Getting Schlonged (FOGS), won’t that make it harder for UHSs to Always Be Closing?
UHSs to Always Be Closing
Closing on the way up and on the way down.
Leading the pack was Taylor Morrison Home Corp., whose average base price of $527,382 last month was down 21 percent, or more than $136,000, from May, according to Smith.”
Is that a lot?
‘This is a great reminder that 2023 will be a great time to buy a home without having to go wildly over the asking price, as buyers have in the past few years,’ says Ashley Jackson, 2023 president of the Austin Board of Realtors.”
Nice try, Ashley, but your contrived attempts to drum up a sense of urgency are no match for the drumbeat of horrendous news and data indicating a bursting housing bubble. I do believe I’ll sit tight in my comfy rental, popcorn in hand, and watch the carnage play out before I even think about bidding on a shack.
These dingbats would tell you it’s a great time to buy if the house was on fire during the open house.
That fire just makes the house more cozy and charming! Buy now before it goes out!
“Burr said the D.C.-area housing market has slowed down precipitously — and he’s seen it himself.
It grieves me to see all those Democrat-Bolshevik federal employees see their shack valuations cratering while their mortgages stay the same.
Gateway Pundit:
“Newly retired lawmaker Rep. Adam Kinzinger was just hired by CNN to be the network’s new senior political commentator.”
Hey Adam, the 2020 election was stolen.
His LBGQT++ friends call him Madam Adam
Why is that?
I’m surprised he made it to the rank of Madam. He seems more like regular staff.
I heard he got arrested years ago for molesting his neighbors dog.;)
𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗠𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟭% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗕𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀
https://www.movoto.com/westminster-ma/market-trends/
𝘈𝘴 𝘢 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘴𝘢𝘪𝘥, “𝘠𝘰𝘶’𝘥 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘳𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘢 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵 15 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴.”
A reader sent these in:
Less than 1 year ago I was outbid on 5 of 25 of these lots. Today the developer called to see if I was still interested as 10 “winners” left their seed money on the table and walked. Markets move fast.
https://twitter.com/SheDrills/status/1610761885464551426
Powell to Bay Area tech bois
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1610783512172572674
58% of millennials live at home with their parents (26-41)
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1610728866959749121
UK mortgage & remortgage approvals are unsurprisingly falling off a cliff…
https://twitter.com/Lvieweconomics/status/1610594216387792896
Some key quotes from June 2022: David Einhorn: “It is monetary policy 101 that to defeat inflation, you need positive real interest rates”
Druckenmiller: “Once inflation gets above 5%, it’s never come down unless fed funds have gotten above the CPI”
https://twitter.com/TheTranscript_/status/1609531171213295618
‘The current federal funds rate, 4.33%, isn’t especially high by historical standards. It’s a testament to the flimsiness of their success that Musk, Zuckerberg and others have responded to interest rates with something close to panic.’
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1610640625199681536
‘Are market projections for rapidly easing inflation too optimistic?’
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1610667626895753216
US Rents fell 0.8% in December, the 4th straight monthly decline. The year-over-year % increase has now moved down for 13 consecutive months after peaking at 18.1% in November 2021. At 4%, this is the smallest YoY increase since April 2021.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1610836782647574528
Going into 2023:
– Unemployment rate is 3.7%
– Inflation is at 7.1%
– GDP is 3.66%
Fed wants in 2023:
– Higher unemployment
– Lower inflation (2%)
– Lower economic growth (Fed induced)
As of now, Fed has no reason to budge as they said previously in December. Higher for longer.
https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1609558847047221250
Treasury Yield forecasts for 2023, I guess Goldman Sachs is the only bank with the higher for longer memo which the Fed stated. Labor market remains tight and hasn’t budged, higher for longer going to create some fireworks in 2023, will be interesting if towards late Q1
https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1609201327917113345
Weekly mortgage applications fell to their lowest since 1996 … 🔥🔥🔥
Everything is fine … 😰
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1610863410828148736
Subprime Auto Lender CAC Sued by NY Over ‘Predatory’ Loans – BNN Bloomberg
According to the complaint, nearly 90% of Credit Acceptance’s New York borrowers became delinquent on their loans, sometimes resulting in additional fees.
https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1610783835620245508
RIP real estate
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1610773247976681475
Over 15% of people who financed a new car last quarter committed to a monthly payment of more than $1,000
https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1610756861245984790
Bloomberg Wealth
BlackRock suspends withdrawals from investors in its £3.5 billion UK property fund, a move that highlights the sector’s ongoing challenges amid volatile markets
https://twitter.com/wealth/status/1610741927376191502
Lance Lambert
Housing affordability remains “pressurized.” The primary driver being last year’s mortgage rate shock…the secondary driver being the Pandemic Housing Boom’s +40% jump in U.S. home prices. via @AtlantaFed
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1610791075588759553
lol. Love when Realtors tell their now negative equity clients that rates can’t rise, and prices in Toronto will always go up… then call me misleading for citing actual data from real estate firms.
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1610800436491190272
Tesla the car company is finally starting to trade like a car company
https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1610778989777272836
Lance Lambert
“If the Fed had learned lessons from the Great Financial Crisis, had a better grasp of long standing housing economics principles…it would have moved much earlier to constrain QE during the Pandemic’s rapidly accelerating home price boom and early signs of inflation” writes @AEI
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1610735278930661377
Lance Lambert
#NEW AEI Housing Center deals out some Fed criticism.
“The main takeaway from our research is that the Fed failed to recognize its policies of quantitative easing and low interest rates were contributing to the home price boom and thus feeding inflation”
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1610734938273316864
There is no debate about inflation having peaked. But don’t confuse inflation with inflation volatility. And a peak tells you nothing about where you will land over the generally accepted central bankers horizon.
https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1610606302115385347
RE: valuations only starting to come down, RE companies and funds only starting to face up to refi issues, redemptions only starting to come through (even later after getting gated one way or another)… seems like lots of DEFERRED pain.
https://twitter.com/DrastikThomas/status/1610690880666570769
2008: Housing collapse was caused by record speculation
2022: “Hold my beer”
Quote Tweet
Redfin
Investors purchased 233.7K homes in 2022 through September, a record-breaking 19% of all listings. Amid high mortgage rates and inflation, we anticipate investors will purchase about 25% fewer homes this year 👉
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1610712716171431936
Fed minutes summary “Don’t f**k around with us by pushing ARKK, sh*tcoins and Nasdaq to the moon or we will have to hike to 8%”
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1610713552859414531
The FOMC minutes provide next to no discussion around how much officials want to raise rates at the February meeting. But officials did shout out their concern that an “unwarranted easing in financial conditions” could “complicate” their inflation fight
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1610714022562742288
FOMC Minutes: Officials Agreed Rate Cuts Shouldn’t Happen in 2023
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1610713870238371846
Spoiler alert, your house IS NOT an ATM machine
Quote Tweet Lance Lambert
#NEW AEI Housing Center raises the red flag on cash-out refinances 🚩🏡 “government lending policies are encouraging lower-wealth, cash-constrained homeowners to give up their valuable current low-rate mortgages and use cash-out refinances to meet other financial obligations.”
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1610740582393196544
Lyn Alden
Voluntary job quits by employees remain elevated as of November, which is generally a sign of a still-strong labor market.
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1610665998125776898
Be careful in China when leaning against anything in a high rise apartment … 😱
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1610648519756456009
Recession? What Recession? 🚨
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1610687965600124935
Danielle DiMartino Booth
Why do I get the sense collapsing price inputs will get little play? This isn’t a “pandemic low,” folks. This is GFC. *Supplier deliveries fell to 45.1 vs 47.2, the lowest since March 2009
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1610653772476473348
Danielle DiMartino Booth
Unwelcome surprise. The world’s largest asset manager told clients in the BlackRock UK Property Fund in the past few days that it will defer redemption requests made at the end of September 2022 and due around now.
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1610705753144430592
The Fed is about to raise rates to 5%, & the ECB and other Central Banks will hover around 4%. These high risk-free yields are available to investors via T-bills. Like never in the last 10 years, in 2023 you are paid to be patient. And they say patience is a great virtue.
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1610535513953280003
CarDealershipGuy
Market is literally FLOODED with Buicks. They’re rotting on car lots like trash. You can score a deal on these if you’re willing to suffer the embarrassment of being seen in one.
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1610627035356880897
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says he penciled in another 100 bps in rate rises this year, for a terminal policy rate of 5.4%. This is despite “increasing evidence” that inflation may have peaked
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1610637107558481922
The 2021-22 vintage deals, with their 3.5% cap rates, were predicated on ever increasing rental rates. With rental rate increases slowing rapidly, we may have our first bunch of “Legacy Assets” coming to market soon.
https://twitter.com/Cribdilla/status/1610638049171640322
Finally some good news in real estate
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1610687703166906370
Ryan Lundquist
@SacAppraiser
What’s the housing market going to do in 2023? Here are some things to watch. This post is designed to skim by topic or digest slowly. I poured heart and time into this, and I hope you get something out of it. Any thoughts?
https://twitter.com/SacAppraiser/status/1610682945358159873
Salesforce announced a layoff of 10% of their workforce today (~7.3k). But they increased headcount by 17k employees last year alone. Management in tech let these companies get insanely bloated, and now employees are paying the price
https://twitter.com/buccocapital/status/1610635135157956609
– Thanks Ben for posting the Twitter links! Sort of real-time snippets and updates on progress of the slow-motion train wreck of collapsing housing, stonks, bonds, autos, NFTs, SPACs, cryptos, etc. Pretty much all asset classes as in “The Everything Bubble,” aka “The Central Bank Bubble.”
– The era of free money is over. Apparently inflation is a thing. MMT was wrong and central banks can’t print our way to prosperity. Debt has finite limits in a finite world. Who knew?
– This is fine. Soft landing dead-ahead, because TPTB, aka my betters told me so. Therefore, it must be true! /s
“Ladies and gentlemen, we’re about to experience some turbulence. Please fasten your seatbelts.” 🙂
Agreed! Only two things I really look at here are Ben’s posted articles and the Twitter comments. I’ll read those, rapid scroll to the Twitter stuff and then adios. Take what you need and leave the rest. Thank you for putting this together Ben!
Mjcn, same here. Great articles. Some posts….scary to think they could be called up for jury duty. Lol.
I read every comment almost every night for three years now and did so during the last gfc too. Rarely comment. Mostly lurk.
Used a different handle year ago can’t remember, also rarely posted then too.
Over 15% of people who financed a new car last quarter committed to a monthly payment of more than $1,000
Given that the average new car price is about $50K, I’m surprised the average isn’t higher. This must mean that people are taking out 6, 7 or even 8 year loans. The current batch of new cars won’t last that long.
Oh the cars will, but the buyers will be mostly unable to afford repairs and maintenance. Heck I’ve seen people trade in cars because they needed tires. and that was pre2020. Going to be much worse now.
And what about people who their leased car is expiring? Now the price is probably double.
Just wait until the turbo or the ten speed automatic give up the ghost. Plus those tiny turbo charged engines aren’t going to last beyond 100K miles. Once the drivetrain is shot it’s off to the junkyard.
Or maybe the all digital dashboard flakes out. Even something as minor as the backup camera system failing will cost some serious cash to fix. A new set of high end tires is cheap by comparison.
That’s what I mean when I say they won’t last. It will be like the current Euro cars. They depreciate like mad because once the warranty expires they start to break and everything is expensive to fix.
“Plus those tiny turbo charged engines aren’t going to last beyond 100K miles.”
Hard to imagine a 4,000-lb SUV with two adults and junk being hauled around by a 1.6-liter turbo engine.
Druckenmiller: “Once inflation gets above 5%, it’s never come down unless fed funds have gotten above the CPI”
Shadowstats isn’t working for me at the moment, but last July they said the real CPI was at 17%, which certainly agrees with my experience. Now imagine a Fed Funds rate of over 17%.
“Now imagine a Fed Funds rate of over 17%.”
Been there…back in the late 70s and early 80s.
Yeah, we’ve been there. The difference is CPI calculation has been buggered since then. If today they say the CPI is 8%, it’s probably 17% the way they calculated it then. A 17% interest rate now wouldn’t be ahead of the “real” CPI.
“Voluntary job quits by employees remain elevated as of November, which is generally a sign of a still-strong labor market.”
It’s a sign of a generation that’s never seen an environment of job scarcity, and worse, has been taught that Daddy State will always print more money to bail them out. I was just as naive once.
“The world’s largest asset manager told clients in the BlackRock UK Property Fund in the past few days that it will defer redemption requests made at the end of September 2022 and due around now.”
They should rename it Black Flag. A roach motel for fake Yellen bux.
if Salesforce.com is having mass layoffs, then we’ve moved beyond profitless unicorns shedding workers. Anyone who quits a steady job now is asking for it.
Yikes, I have a second interview for a new gig next week.
For the older folks here, is it better to stick out somewhere that isn’t bad but isn’t great during recessions?
You can never tell. I mean don’t take stupid unicorn style companies, but they will never tell the truth and employees are usually the last to realize it’s all gone bad.
Take the most money and put lots away. It can take a really long time to get a job in a recession. But once layoffs start at your company, always volunteer for the first set because the deals never get better and it’s just a matter of time at that point. And it’s better to compete with a few hundred laid off people than thousands of people 2 years later.
Loyalty is dead, and the companies killed it.
Nothing to stop you from looking while still employed, in fact, some say that makes you more desirable, as the dejobbed are often considered damaged goods.
But there are plenty of stories about people who changed jobs going into a recession just to get the axe six months later.
As I mentioned elsewhere, Salesforce was considered to be a great place to work: it was very profitable, growing and treated its people well. I know a few people who have been there for a few years and they couldn’t stop singing their praises of the firm. Then suddenly the music stopped and the layoffs began.
better to stick out
Sure depends on a lot of factors, but if you look back on years just towing the line unhappy those times will seem wasted.
The flip side of so-called job security is financial security. If you have lots of dependents (not working spouse, kids, car debt, mortgage obligations) you may be cautious to go on adventures. At one of the corporations I worked at they gave people “points” for those things, a measure of the abuse they’d suffer.
Good luck, have fun and stay out of debt. If at any time you find yourself unemployed, it is much better to have fallen from a high branch than a low one. Do something that excites you.
Sure depends on a lot of factors
Definitely. When I was young I played the musical jobs game, changing jobs on average once every 18 months or so. Got to work on cool tech and got a nice pay bump every time. But as I got older I noticed that branch swinging got a little harder. By my late 30’s I often found myself being one of the “old guys”, surrounded by twenty somethings, I would hang around for a few years, while the pups were often gone in less than a year.
I did hit my 10th anniversary at HP, working in different groups until I, along with tens of thousands of others, was told bye-bye.
What is interesting at Big Red is that the business units with the “cool products”, namely anything with the word “cloud” in their description, are not pleasant places to work. People last only 2 years or so in those groups, while in my boring “on prem” HW group there are people with 20-30 years of seniority. We have several refugees from the cloud teams. Common complaints included being on call 24/7. Pay is good on the cloud teams, 200K+ is not uncommon, but many take pay cuts to have a life.
I switched to a startup in 2001 knowing it was just as risky as a big tech company but with more upside. It almost didn’t make it BUT the other company gone CNXT.
Thanks for the comments everyone. I appreciate it!
Fed minutes summary “Don’t f**k around with us by pushing ARKK, sh*tcoins and Nasdaq to the moon or we will have to hike to 8%”
Uh, it’s a little late for that – like 2+ years late.
From WTOP. “Home sellers and their agents often set a price based on comparable sales of similar homes nearby. But their house
may not be[isn’t] worth what their neighbor’s house sold for just a few months ago.”– As most people know, house prices are set at the margin. Comparable sales (comps) drive prices up as the house (commodity asset) bubble inflates (then). To the consternation of many a seller and Realtor, this relationship also holds on the way down (now). It isn’t any different than in Housing Bubble 1.0 in that regard.
Russel Casse: “Payback’s a bitch, ain’t it?” – “Independence Day” (1996)
“Price discovery’s a bitch, ain’t it?” – Paraphrased in the era of (Keynesian) Central Banking
– BTW, IMHO, prices need to fall at least 30-40% just to get back to the long-term trend due to Housing Bubble 2.0 extremes. Am I wrong? Some call it mean reversion.
– This is no way to run an economy. Bubble-nomics enabled by fiat $ and central banks. Both housing and stonks together this time. End the Fed.
– Depending on the buyer’s timing, fictitious paper gains turn into real losses. A nation of shack gamblers. Jingle mail coming again to an MSA near you?
– Maybe the masses will wake up some day before they’re all paupers. Maybe. Not to worry though, as Senator Running Deer and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) got your back. From the website: “On your side through life’s financial moments.” and “We’re the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a U.S. government agency dedicated to making sure you are treated fairly by banks, lenders and other financial institutions.” I guess that doesn’t include the Fed! 🙂 The rest of the cockroaches in Congress are all too busy trading their Nancy Pelosi stonk portfolios to pay much attention to the needs of their constituents. Am I wrong?
And all God’s people said: “END THE FED!”
Let’s get her done and get these lending rates to double digit levels.
Clearwater, FL Housing Prices Crater 30% YOY As Gulf Coast Housing Demand Plummets And Builders Slash Prices
https://www.movoto.com/clearwater-fl/market-trends/
As one Tampa area broker conceded, “If you paid more than $50 a square foot for your house, you got ripped off.”
Bay Area Housing Market Update – 2022 | Will 2023 Be Any Better?
Talis Team
Jan 5, 2023
2022 was a year of disasters: historically high inflation, falling stock market, 2 quarters of decreasing GDP, war in Ukraine, elections, layoffs in the leading Bay Area companies, growing interest rates. And it ended with multiple floods in the Bay Area right before the New Year.
From the real estate point of view 2022 was a tale of two markets. First half of the year was continuation of the exuberant 2021 market, the prices continued growing, and the number of new listings and the number of home sales stayed high. By April home prices in the Bay Area jumped by 16.5% year over year. The local homeowners felt euphoric – the equity in their homes reached an all time high!
But then the real estate “dream market” started deteriorating rather quickly. It all started with rising inflation rates that had some kind of a domino effect: In June, inflation peaked at 9.1% and that is when Feds started to jack up rates. The first 75 basis point increase was announced at their June meeting, followed by more 75 basis point hikes in July, September, and November. Feds ended the year with a 50 basis points rate increase in December.
The mortgage interest rates reacted to the run-away inflation and Fed rate increases. Based on the Freddie Mac weekly mortgage rate survey, the interest rates more than doubled from 3.2% at the beginning of 2022 to almost 7.1% at the end of October, before sliding down to 6.4% by the end of the year.
August interest rate increases finally shifted the entire Bay Area housing market. The number of sales quickly declined, and all spring price gains got wiped out. By the end of the year, in December, prices declined by 9.2% compared to December 2021 and the number of sales was cut in half. Sellers stopped selling and buyers stopped buying. In 2022 we observed one of the largest home sale price swings within one year. From January till peak in April home prices grew by 13.7% and then dropped by 20.1% by the end of December, all in a 12-month span.
In the second half of 2022 we were witnessing a down spiral of the market. Of course all sensation-seeking media outlets started predicting a doomsday for the real estate market. Well, as it often happens, they were wrong. Market definitely slowed down, but not even close to the crash they were selling us. Looking at 2022 as a whole year, the median home sale prices in the Bay Area still grew by 6% compared to 2021.
Because the number of home sales in 2022 declined by 28.5%, some analysts interpreted it as the beginning of the housing market crash. What they missed was that in 2021 after COVID restrictions got lifted, the number of sales jumped up by more than 30%. If you would average the number of sales in 2020 through 2022, they will fall nicely within the long-term Bay Area housing market trends. No drama here – these simple facts explain the situation.
Keep in mind that the big picture of the Bay Area real estate market that we are discussing here is not 100% applicable to every city and every neighborhood. Some neighborhood markets happen to be more resilient and stay strong, and others give more into the economic and geopolitical troubles. If you are a homeowner and want to understand your neighborhood market and learn how well your own house keeps its value, call or text us – we will give you a full update, my contact information is in the description of this video. And if you are a homebuyer looking to take advantage of the current market to find great deals, talk to us – we’ll help you navigate this challenging market.
0:00 – Introduction
0:33 – 2022, Tale of Two Markets
2:39 – Down Spiraling Market of the Second Half of 2022
3:46 – Your Local Market May Be Different
4:32 – Challenges for 2023
6:31 – 2023 Forecast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkeUFpEv1Ac
7:11.
Will 2023 Be Any Better?
– No. Asset bubbles always burst. It’s not different this time.
– Enjoyed the boom? Now enjoy the bust.
“Once a boom is well started, it cannot be arrested. It can only be collapsed.” — John Kenneth Galbraith
“Participants in the speculative situation are programmed for sudden efforts at escape. Thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang. There will be occasion to see the operation of this rule frequently repeated.” – John Kenneth Galbraith
“Money, again, has often been a cause of the delusion of the multitudes. Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers, and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper.” – Charles Mackay
“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” – Isaac Newton
Ruby Freeman: “And they was saying the count was low…BOOM under the table. Cut the zip ties to scan them so the number would go up, so that’s how the number was created.” 2/2
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Q31vTeERVP0l/
1:18.
Looks like a stolen election.
Where is Yoel Roth to censor this misinformation? Still in hiding, Yoel?
He/She/It and Madam Adam are diddling children somewhere.
Did somebody say stolen election?
HuffPaint — Biden To Award Medals To Officers, Others Who Defended Democracy On Jan. 6:
“President Joe Biden will mark the second anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol by awarding medals to 12 people at the White House on Friday who defended democracy leading up to and during the violent attack on Congress.
The recipients of the Presidential Citizens Medal include a mix of police officers and state election officials who resisted President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election based on false claims of fraud and who “demonstrated courage and selflessness during a moment of peril for our nation,” according to a White House official.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/january-6-medals-biden_n_63b6ee98e4b0cbfd55e73c67
Joe Biden didn’t win the 2020 election.
Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States, because the 2020 election was stolen.
Gaetz nominated Trump for Speaker. Consider the following (liberals heads exploding BIGLY): Trump becomes Speaker; Biden and Harris are removed for any number of reasons, stolen election being the cleanest; Trump becomes President; he runs in 2024 and wins giving him essentially 10 years in the White House. Someone needs to check me on that last possibility. Trump couldn’t realistically “drain the swamp” in one term.
I was thinking about that too.
That’d be one hell of a Trump Card!
Are speaker of house allowed to sell nft of their likeness?
Most Congress Critters don’t understand Twitter. You think legislation has caught up to NFTs?
You can sell national secrets and be President.
I’ve often wondered what is it that drives octogenarians to accumulate ever more wealth, when they already have more than they could ever spend. Do they ever stop to smell the roses? Or is it an addiction?
Gorka and Bannon are going to try to make it happen tomorrow, January 6th.
Whenever I see Sebastian Gorka on tv or hear his name, I think of this screaming, flaminng @$$hole of a cartoon character.
https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/hanna-barbera/images/5/55/Sebastian.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20200526230639
Link doesn’t work.
https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/hanna-barbera/images/5/55/Sebastian.jpg
https://twitter.com/Logan_Ratick/status/1611135511376060416 (w/ 🤣 image):
New post from @realDonaldTrump after round 10. McCarthy’s most prominent endorser
The Dow…. it’s cratering.🤣
It needs to go back to its fundamental value of around 7,500.
Has the stock market finally got past its inflation and rate hike anxiety?
Yahoo Finance
Stock market news live updates: Stocks fall after strong labor market data
Alexandra Semenova
Thu, January 5, 2023 at 6:35 AM PST·4 min read
In this article:
U.S. stocks sank Thursday morning after economic data showed private payrolls rose more than expected last month and weekly jobless claims fell to a three-month low, pointing to continued tightness in the labor market despite higher interest rates.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) plopped 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 250 points, or 0.8%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tumbled 0.9%.
The ADP National Employment report showed private employment grew by 235,000 jobs in December. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase of 150,000.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-5-2023-123028965.html
Are you concerned that there seems to be no bottom to the stock market’s CR8R?
How do HODLerz feel about living in pergatory?
purgatory
Yahoo Finance Video
Stock market: 2023 to be the year of ‘portfolio purgatory,’ analyst says
Thu, January 5, 2023 at 12:36 PM PST
In this article:
eToro USA Investment Analyst Callie Cox joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the state of the labor market and why 2023 will lead to a shakeup for investors.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/stock-market-2023-portfolio-purgatory-203647853.html
Dow finishes down over 300 points as investors await December jobs report
Stock market acting like it did before the recession of 1969, JPMorgan strategist finds
Published: Jan. 5, 2023 at 7:18 a.m. ET
By Steve Goldstein
Referenced Symbols
SPX -1.16%
TMUBMUSD02Y 4.457%
TMUBMUSD10Y 3.709%
Bryan Adams, the Canadian singer, famously reminisced about the summer of 1969, and now, investment analysts are as well.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a strategist at JPMorgan, finds the recession that began in 1969 is the most consistent with the pre-recession stock market pattern of the past year.
Like the one predicted by many economists for this year, the 1969 recession was mild, at least as far as corporate earnings were concerned. Earnings per share for S&P 500 companies fell 13% peak-to-trough during that recession.
Another similarity between now and then is the steep drop in the stock market. In the 1969 recession, the S&P 500 index (SPX, -1.16%) slumped 34% from peak to trough, and by around 20% before the recession started. Already, the market is down about 20% in the past year from its peak before any recession has started.
The trajectory of the slope of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as defined by the gap between 2-year (TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.457%) and 10-year (TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.709%) yields, also is very similar to that of 1969 before the recession started.
So what does this mean?
“Using the 1969 U.S. recession as a guide, the picture we get is of continued equity market declines up to six months after the start of the recession,…”
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-acting-like-it-did-before-the-recession-of-1969-jpmorgan-strategist-finds-11672921113
“…the S&P 500 index (SPX, -1.16%) slumped 34% from peak to trough, and by around 20% before the recession started.”
Sounds like the market has a ways to go before a bottom is in.
But I think 1969 is the wrong reference year. When inflation bubbled up in the early 1970s the stock market dropped by more like 50% before the Fed freaked out and respiked the punch bowl.
Investor’s Business Daily
Stock Market Widens Losses At Midday; Bed Bath & Beyond Sell-Off Expands
JUAN CARLOS ARANCIBIA 12:07 PM ET 01/05/2023
The stock market sank more than 1% at midday Thursday, near the day’s lows. Bad news for Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and new job-market data contributed to a bearish tone.
The Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 were down 1.2% at noon ET, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 was down 1.2% also.
Volume fell on the Nasdaq and the NYSE compared with the same time on Wednesday. Decliners topped advancers by nearly 3-2 on the Nasdaq and NYSE.
ADP Payrolls, Jobless Claims Rattle Stock Market
Stock market futures turned lower after two better-than-expected premarket job reports.
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) said its computations of payroll data showed an increase of 235,000 jobs in December. That’s well above economist forecasts for 145,000 job additions.
Initial claims for jobless benefits fell to 204,000 in the last week of 2022, from 223,000 the previous week, above expectations for 225,000. Taken together, the reports showed a still-firm job market and revived fears of more interest-rate hikes.
Next up, the Labor Department issues its December nonfarm payrolls report on Friday morning. The consensus estimate is for 200,000 job additions, down from 263,000 in November, and an unchanged 3.7% jobless rate.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 3 basis points to 3.74%.
…
Bed Bath & Beyond, Other Stock Market Movers
In stock market action, Bed Bath & Beyond plunged 23% after the beleaguered retailer said it may file for bankruptcy as it struggles to fund operations.
Shares are now trading under two bucks after a flash rally to 30 in August, when investor Ryan Cohen bought a large position that he quickly dumped. Two years ago, the stock climbed to nearly 54 as the home goods chain became part of the meme-stock frenzy.
…
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stock-market-falls-after-job-data-why-bed-bath-beyond-plunged-23/
Does it seem like Wall Street is failing to hear the Fed’s loud, clear message that further rate hikes are in the pipeline from now until kingdom come?
The Financial Times
Federal Reserve
Fed wants ‘more evidence’ of easing inflation and backs fresh rate rises
Minutes from December meeting show US central bank officials intend to keep squeezing economy
The Federal Reserve building in Washington
According to the most recent ‘dot plot’ of individual interest rate projections, most Fed officials see the federal funds rate peaking between 5% and 5.25%
Colby Smith in Washington yesterday
Federal Reserve officials warned they would need to see “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation before they are convinced that price pressures are under control as they backed fresh rate rises this year, according to an account of their most recent meeting.
Minutes from the December gathering, when the US central bank raised its benchmark rate by half a percentage point, showed the Fed intends to continue squeezing the economy to try to tackle price pressures, which they warned could “prove to be more persistent than anticipated”.
The half-point rise ended a months-long string of 0.75 percentage point increases and lifted the target range of the federal funds rate to between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent.
The decision in December followed fresh evidence that inflation appeared to have peaked as energy prices and those tied to the goods sector have retreated, developments which participants described as “welcome”.
“Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2 per cent, which was likely to take some time,” the minutes, released on Wednesday, said, referring to the Fed’s inflation target.
The minutes also indicated that officials are attuned to how their policy communications are being digested by investors and others across Wall Street. In the weeks leading up to the December meeting, financial conditions had loosened as traders in fed funds futures wagered the Fed would back off its tightening campaign sooner than officials have signalled.
…
The Fed to pause hiking in February, ‘sharp’ rallies expected – Bill Baruch
Cornelius Christian
Thursday January 05, 2023 18:06
Kitco News
Given recent data suggesting that the economy is in “deterioration” and inflation has “come down,” the Federal Reserve is likely to pause its tightening cycle in February, according to Bill Baruch, President of Blue Line Futures. In particular, he cited manufacturing data, which show that prices paid for inputs dropped to their lowest level “since the start of the pandemic.”
“I think there is a good chance that we don’t see the Fed hike at all in February,” he predicted. “We could see something from them that would surprise the markets, come the first week of February.”
He added that although 2023 will be characterized by “volatile” trends, markets would rally.
“It’s going to be a very choppy market, a very volatile market,” he said. “[But] the market could really rally very sharply to start the year.”
…
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-05/The-Fed-to-pause-hiking-in-February-sharp-rallies-expected-Bill-Baruch.html
A vote for President DJT for speaker of the house today.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1611057504120893440
Globalist scum media.
Washington Post — Covid misinformation spikes in wake of Damar Hamlin’s on-field collapse:
“The viral tweets were sent as millions of Americans were looking for answers about Hamlin’s condition with news broadcasters and sports commentators having little immediate information about the player’s condition. The information vacuum created a perfect storm for anti-vaxxers, who had already been priming people to believe sudden deaths or sudden collapses could be linked to vaccinations, social media experts say.”
Social media experts? LMFAO
“Just before Twitter rolled back its covid misinformation policy in November, a more than hour-long video was released on the video service Rumble that promotes a debunked claim that the coronavirus vaccine is causing people to die. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Children’s Health Defense promoted the film this winter, but its creators generated newfound attention by seizing on the viral footage of Hamlin collapsing.
“It just really fits in with the narrative that was already circulating that any collapse of a person may be vaccine related, no matter lack of evidence,” said John Gregory, health editor of NewsGuard, a company that analyzes misinformation.”
NewsGuard? Covid vaccines are poison.
“Twitter’s enforcement of its covid misinformation policies was imperfect and widely criticized, both by Democrats, who said the company hadn’t done enough to rein in falsehoods, and conservatives, who warned the company had gone too far. The former Twitter employee said speculative tweets would have been “tricky” for Twitter’s Trust and Safety team to handle because they’re often vague and not making claims that definitively could be said to be false.
Twitter’s decision to roll back its policies could have implications for other social networks as well. Smith warned that the false tweets would likely not remain confined to Twitter, as people would likely screenshot and then share them in more private channels — including messages and Facebook groups.”
https://archive.ph/wMGP4
SHUT. IT. DOWN.
Yesterday on Twitter, #Wall Street Silv asked if there was a time period post-vax after which you could be reasonable sure you wouldn’t Die Suddenly. Lively and respectful conversation in the comments followed. Thank you Elon Musk for allowing this!
Perhaps you should be thanking your colleague Fauci and the FDA for depriving you of long-term safety studies. Best of luck getting real answers on Twitter.
Right, they don’t really know yet about the long term on the jabs.
Just stop taking any of Big Pharmacy vaccines, and be suspicious about medications.
Some Doctors are saying that its questionable that they even put the gene altering material that would produce spike., and something else was put in the shots. Who knows, but whatever ingredients they put in vaccines, it didn’t stop Covid and transmission.
You just know everything about me, don’t you.
Of course we do. Aren’t you the “fauci-fan-#1” on social medias?
😉
You’ve shared here that you live in MD, work for fedgov and that Fauci is a distant colleague.
How distant?
asked if there was a time period post-vax after which you could be reasonable sure you wouldn’t Die Suddenly
Being that the jabs are relatively new and still experimental, I’m gonna guess that anyone who has been jabbed has a ticking time bomb inside them. Whether or not it will explode, who knows? And even if it does the Narrativists will say that the death or injury had nothing to do with the jab. They will never admit that the jab is dangerous.
Asking an Asian person for math help is a microaggression. Reverse racism does not exist. Men can get pregnant.
https://freebeacon.com/biden-administration/what-the-feds-are-teaching-in-diversity-training/
I met a few cute girls in college by helping them with their math homework. There was one I am certain did not need help, but who kept asking me to come over to “help her”.
Good times.
I Breastfeed My Fiance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjeFpwSozU4
“58% of millennials live at home with their parents (26-41)”
What would have been a mortgage payment is going toward student loans, I guess.
is going toward student loans
And in 2024 the Dems will again dangle loan forgiveness in front of them. And again, it won’t be delivered.
Woodrow Wilson set up the seeds of destruction to the Constitutional Republic called the United United States over 100 years ago.
. Wilson set up the Federal Reserve .
Wilson passed the 16th amendment that set up the Federal Income tax, which wasn’t even ratified by the States.
Wilson created the League of Nations that morphed into the United Nation, as a means to have a One World Order Governing Entities that would override sovereign states and Constitutions by treaties, etc.
Wilson got us into World War 1 , which got us into Word War 2 and all endless wars that followed.The intent of the Founders was protection of US Borders and enemies foreign and domestic only. Being the military watchdogs of the World , would be against George Washingtons warning of staying away from ” foreign entanglements”.
It was never meant by Founders of US Government to have a big Federal Government that would tax 20 to 70% of Citizens income. Also to set up a United Nations that would supersede US Constitution by treaty.
The very US Constitution would prevent Communism in that Marxism would violate the Constitution protections of the individual.
The founders didn’t set up that equity or equal distribution of wealth was the US Government.
So obviously for over 100 years the One World Order Elites have waged a slow gradual undermining of the US Government that was set up.
Federal Government interference in Commerce or capitalism has corrupted all economics. Its been a looting system that is on the verge of collaspe.
Just saying, got to go back to the original intent of the Founders of this Government.
Screw the One World Order.
Oooh, Cathie Wood had her next big thing, send your $5K to Cathie and get in on the ground floor!!
“Last month, BBC reported that GOSH, a research hospital in the UK, base edited the genome of a 12-year-old girl, Alyssa, suffering from leukemia. She had failed dozens of therapies and had no more options. Seven months later, she is cancer- free. Not many investors know about it.”
https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1610833342538063872
She has a way of making her investors a small fortune.
Unfortunately, they all started out with a large fortune.
Hey Redpilled Redhead, check this out:
“Patents are for the weak” Elon Musk
https://youtube.com/shorts/wIkPcBPLL4w?feature=share
(of course Tesla has thousands of patents, so I guess Tesla is weak)
Do they? I know Musk has said he’s made them “open source.” Why any organization would pay $$$$$ for patents not to enforce them is in my professional opinion highly moronic.
Quick search shows 1190 US patents assigned to Tesla.
You have to have pretty deep pockets to attain then maintain defensive patents. Trade secrets would be safer.
I believe there are lots of conditions and caveats to that “open source” designation. Basically it’s a cross license for all of your patents, and if you’ve ever asserted a patent against anyone you are not eligible.
I can see that working for electronic but not mechanical patents. My old firm represented Diamler AG.
In my experience, the general public doesn’t understand that a patent confers a right to exclude not a right to practice and that, in order to get that patent, the patentee has disclose, describe and enable another’s use of the invention in return for a period of exclusivity. To the general public, “open sourcing” Tesla’s patents makes Musk seem magnanimous as if he’s gifting Tesla’s inventions for the world to practice. In reality, Tesla is paying big bucks to publicly disclose what it is doing, opening itself up to claims of patent infringement, as well as telling competitors it’s not going to sue for patent infringement. That may be a good PR decision but it’s a very bad business decision.
Dyson has a similarly ridiculous take. IIRC, he bashes attorneys then says how competitors don’t copy Dyson. 🙄
‘Average home prices started to creep down, especially in Austin’s northern suburbs, between July and October’
Places that weren’t considered a part of Austin just a few years ago.
The Who — 515:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zA1l-2jrVCY
Lou Reed — Sally Can’t Dance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbfB9z4Am-E
Traffic — Light Up Or Leave Me Alone:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-QKduja9wk
30% Of All Realtors Could Quit During Housing Crash
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/30-all-realtors-could-quit-during-housing-crash
30% is a lot….Just not enough.
Something from WRSA…
“The GAE has its minions in place across all of the former USA down to the county and subcounty levels.
Each one of those imperial representatives has a home, at least one car, a workplace, a collection of associates, and weekly routines at local restaurants, shopping centers, and recreation areas.
Learn that information discreetly.
It will likely prove to be useful as the Empire becomes more maniacal.”
Remain calm and identify collaborators. Especially locally.
Yahoo
Reuters
U.S. DOJ to seize $465 million of Robinhood shares tied to Bankman-Fried
Tom Hals and Dietrich Knauth
Wed, January 4, 2023 at 12:19 PM PST·2 min read
By Tom Hals and Dietrich Knauth
(Reuters) -U.S. prosecutors are in the process of seizing shares of Robinhood Markets Inc tied to Sam Bankman-Fried, who has been charged with fraud in the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, a U.S. attorney told a judge on Wednesday.
The Department of Justice did not believe the 56 million shares of Robinhood, worth about $465 million, were property of a bankruptcy estate, U.S. attorney Seth Shapiro told U.S. Bankruptcy Judge John Dorsey, who is overseeing the FTX bankruptcy.
…
https://news.yahoo.com/u-doj-process-seizing-robinhood-201900372.html
Does “buy the dip” work under all market conditions?
Markets
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Buys About $5M of COIN, Continuing Her Dip-Buy Parade
Coinbase shares closed down 11.06% at $33.53 on Thursday.
By Greg Ahlstrand
AccessTimeIcon
Jan 5, 2023 at 7:54 p.m. PS
Cathie Wood, chief executive officer and chief investment officer, Ark Invest. (Photo by Marco Bello/Getty Images)
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest grabbed another $5 million of Coinbase (COIN) shares on Thursday, as she continues to show confidence in the crypto exchange even as its share price falls. It closed down 11% on Thursday at $33.53. It fell almost 90% in 2022.
ARK’s ARKW fund, or ARK Next Generation Internet ETF, bought 27,813 COIN shares.
ARFK, or ARK Fintech Innovation EFT, bought 144,463 Coin shares.
…
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/01/06/cathie-woods-ark-invest-buys-about-5m-of-coin-continuing-her-dip-buy-parade/
The Financial Times
ETF Hub ARK Investment Management LLC
Cathie Wood’s Ark sheds almost $50bn in assets since 2021 peak
Flagship innovation strategy represents ‘canary in the coal mine’ for regime shift in markets, says Morningstar
Cathie Wood has tried to identify the handful of companies that can make exponential gains by shaping the future
Harriet Agnew, Asset Management Editor
December 21 2022
Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management has lost almost $50bn in assets from its stable of exchange traded funds since its 2021 peak, highlighting the scale of this year’s losses in speculative tech stocks.
Total assets across Ark’s nine ETFs have slumped to $11.4bn from a peak of $60.3bn in February last year, according to Morningstar data. This was led by steep declines in its flagship Ark Disruptive Innovation ETF, known by its ticker ARKK, which has lost around two-thirds of its value this year and is on track for its worst annual performance.
“Ark Innovation’s results have been horrendous this year and very disappointing for investors,” says Robby Greengold, a strategist at Morningstar, which in April downgraded the ETF from ‘neutral’ to ‘negative’.
…
1-11.4/60.3 = 81% decline in assets since February 2021.
Is that alot?
Would you have lost more money HODLing Ark funds or cryptocurrencies?