Sellers Worry They Missed The Top And It Is Going Down, They Want To Get Out
A report from the Seattle Times in Washington. “The result of the slower market for buyers who are still trying to make a deal? They are no longer ‘making a faster decision on buying a house than you would [when buying] a pair of shoes,’ said Windermere agent Cristina Ross. And for sellers? They ‘have to work with those buyers,’ said Tacoma-based Ross. Nearly five times as many King County homes were still listed for sale at the end of December as during the same time in 2021. Throughout King County, the slowdown is showing up more in some areas than others: The median home price dropped 15% year-over-year on the Eastside.”
The Waco Tribune Herald in Texas. “Real estate agents who spoke with the Tribune-Herald acknowledged the frenzy they faced most of 2021 and early in 2022 has dissipated. Not as many listings attract multiple offers. Few homes, if any, are selling above the asking price. No longer do out-of-state investors buy sight unseen. ‘What I would call the average homebuyer has more buying power than six or seven months ago,’ Bentwood Realty broker Kim Galvan said. ‘Sellers are willing to make concessions. They didn’t have to last year.'”
“In December, a home selling in Greater Waco carried an average sales price of $295,976, down from $303,659 in December 2021, according to the Waco MLS. But the December dip does not reflect a yearlong pattern. For all 2022, the average home sales price reached $318,576. ‘As to whether prices are trending downward, I would say perhaps slightly,’ Galvan said. ‘There have been more price adjustments in the last three or four months than in the past two or three years. We are talking about the frenzied market of 2021 and early 2022, when there was less inventory, more buyers, and people were buying above asking price right and left.'”
“Pam Hanson, with Coldwell Banker Apex Realtors in Waco said a neighbor expressed disappointment at falling prices. ‘Three weeks ago, he told me he got this much for his house, and he didn’t like it. I said, ‘Well, you missed it,’ referencing housing’s bull market.”
W42ST in New York. “In Hell’s Kitchen, W42ST found numerous properties to support the citywide trend of apartments taking months to sell and owners cutting prices, including: StreetEasy listings that had been on sale for as long as 274 days, including this $730k one-bedroom condo on W42nd Street in the Atelier building which is discounted $50k. As much as $260k slashed from a sparkling, three-bedroom, three-bath $6.6M condo on W57th Street with panoramic Central Park and Hudson River view.”
“A 57th floor apartment at 322 W57th Street between 8th and 9th Avenues which has been cut twice in price, from $7,995,000 in September to $6,690,000 now. The three-bedroom, three-bathroom property shows that the so-called Billionaires Row is affected by the trend. At 310 W52nd Street, between 8th and 9th Avenues, this four-bedroom townhouse in The Link building was first listed last April for $4.3 million and is now on the market at $3,498,000.”
The Bangor Daily News in Maine. “A home in Lewiston closed on Thursday for $15,000 under the asking price and the buyer got $4,000 from the seller toward closing costs. ‘That’s the first under the asking price with a closing-cost concession that I closed since 2018,’ Faith Morse, a broker with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate in Auburn, said. It is something she and other real estate agents expect will happen more in Maine, where it had become common in the hot real estate market of the past four years to waive inspections and pay tens of thousands of dollars over asking price.”
“A previous buyer’s offer fell through because rising mortgage rates made the home unaffordable. That made the buyer more motivated and willing to make concessions to Morse’s buyer. ‘The mentality now is sellers worry they missed the top of the market and it is going down,’ she said. ‘They want to get out.’ Hot markets including Yarmouth and Cape Elizabeth aren’t seeing the concessions yet, but they are happening at home sales in Portland, said Erin Oldham, associate broker at Portside Real Estate in Portland. ‘I think it’s going to be a little more enjoyable to do house shopping over the next couple years because you get to negotiate the price down rather than up,’ she said.”
The Orange County Register in California. “Homebuying’s slump in Riverside and San Bernardino counties pushed sales down 45% in November from a year earlier as house payments jumped 54% or more. In Riverside County, the $543,750 median was down 0.2% in a month and 2% higher in a year. That’s 9% off the $598,500 record high of May 2022. San Bernardino County had a $466,000 median — down 4.9% in a month and 1% higher in a year. That’s 11% off the $523,000 peak set in May 2022.”
Bisnow San Francisco in California. “Nearly a third of San Francisco’s office space is available for lease, according to new data from Savills, highlighting the ongoing struggle for a market that three years ago was a juggernaut, commanding huge rents as companies clamored for space. ‘When will we see the end of this? I don’t think anyone knows,’ Savills Senior Director and Head of Office Research Michael Soto said.’Because there’s a lot of different things going on with San Francisco, as you know, right now. You know, the market is in the middle of a tech correction.'”
“‘In terms of the office market, LA is probably about three times bigger than San Francisco, yet San Francisco has almost as much sublease space as LA,’ he said. ‘The issue isn’t oversupply. It’s underdemand.'”
Global News in Canada. “Just 280 homes changed hands in Waterloo Region in December 2022. ‘The number of homes sold in December was lower than any single month in well over a decade, marking an end to a turbulent year for home sales in Waterloo Region,’ WRAR president Megan Bell stated. The average cost of buying a home in Kitchener-Waterloo peaked in February at $1,007,109 and has been steadily declining ever since. In December, the realtors’ monthly report says that on average, a home sold for $720,596.”
CBC News in Canada. “In March, the average price of a home in Windsor-Essex hit a record high of $723,739. Within that month, sales for the year also peaked at 698. But in December, the average price for a home in Windsor plummeted to $473,642 — about $250,000 less than what houses were selling for at their peak in the springtime.”
CTV News in Canada. “The number of people and businesses struggling with insolvency in British Columbia increased substantially in November, according to recently released data from the federal government. Grant Bazian, a licensed insolvency trustee, told CTV News he expects filings to continue to grow in the coming months as costs remain high and economists forecast a recession. ‘There’s a different tipping point for different people,’ Bazian said. ‘Interest rates have increased over the last little while, and I think every time there’s an interest rate increase or a reduction in government subsidy, that pushes more people over the edge and they come to see us.'”
From SBS News. “The Reserve Bank of Australia’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle has triggered the housing market’s biggest decline in more than four decades. The 8.4 per cent drop between May 2022 and January 2023 is the deepest peak-to-trough fall on CoreLogic’s records, which go back to 1980. It surpasses the previous record-breaking slide between 2017 and 2019, as well as the downturn prompted by the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Sydney home values led this latest nosedive, falling 13 per cent from their highest point. Brisbane prices plummeted 10 per cent while Melbourne dwelling values tanked 8.6 per cent from peak to trough.”
From News.com.au. “An Australian influencer has divided TikTok users over a rant about the drastic spike in her investment property’s interest rate. Amber Paul posted the insight complaining that payments had more than doubled in less than a year. ‘Can I just vent for a second?’ Ms Paul asked before launching into her complaints. ‘So last month the interest on my investment property was $2700 a month. Just seven months ago in May it was less than half that at $1300 a month.'”
“However, despite the young mother’s apparent financial woes other users were quick to point out they were in far more dire situations. ‘I don’t have food in my fridge, Amber,’ one person wrote. ‘It’s almost like an investment can be a gamble,’ added another. ‘Sell it then … it’s an investment property. I don’t pity you.'”
“Others were more sympathetic, adding they could relate to the rising housing payments. ‘Same! Now I’m unsure if we should sell,’ one homeowner wrote. ‘We are forking out another $3000 a month on top of the tenants’ rent just to keep it.’ Paul said she also considered that option but would have to sell the house at less than what she bought it for five years ago.”
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At the Orange County link they have the breakdown of crater for single family, airboxes and new shacks.
‘In terms of the office market, LA is probably about three times bigger than San Francisco, yet San Francisco has almost as much sublease space as LA,’ he said. ‘The issue isn’t oversupply. It’s underdemand.’
You gotta get with the lingo Mike. In Calgary they say yer not oversupplied, yer under demolished!
The financing is structured for some these commercial real estate deals such that it is better for their balance sheet to have a higher asking price for rent and leave the property vacant than lower the rent and get a tenant. I made some calls around San Diego about some commercial spaces for rent and the lease terms are insane, I don’t know how anyone could operate profitably at those locations. Yet those spaces have been sitting empty for a long time and the asking rent is still ridiculous.
‘Nearly five times as many King County homes were still listed for sale at the end of December as during the same time in 2021’
Wa happened to my shortage Seattle?
In the Seattle Times article, the really interesting bit of info was the East Side falling 15% Dec ’22 over ’21. This does not even include the spring run up in Mar-May.
Big shock given all the big tech workers in the area.
Yep. As has been discussed frequently here, we’re just a few months from the YOY numbers getting really ugly. Can’t wait to see the spring of ‘22 against this spring. I do believe that’s when we’re gonna see a lot of freakin’ out.
We’re also a couple of months away from more layoffs. Layoffs + falling house prices = no more wealth effect. People will stop spending.
People will stop spending.
Food and gas prices plus interest rates and it’s already happening.
We’ve been mostly essentials only for a while now. And we’ve got the 6 month reserve and additional savings. You don’t have to be a Bible reader to appreciate Proverbs 22:3. You don’t have to wait for the wind to start blowing to find shelter.
This is the fun period of raising rates to fight inflation headed into a recession. It has happened in the past with bad outcomes. Central bankers believed they had defeated inflation. That miscalculation will prove costly. Combined with the 40% increase in money supply during CCP virus puts us in a unique period.
Central bankers believed they had defeated inflation.
These guys were getting high on their own supply. They were even day-trading ahead of their policy announcements. And then they’d trot out Windbag Powell to boldly proclaim that they were going to “let inflation run hot for a while” while chiding anybody who suggested inflation might be a concern. “It’s transitory” he’d sneer.
Big shock given all the big tech workers in the area.
Oh, the ol’ tech worker fantasy. Drive around any of these areas and look around at every business you see. Is it tech? Nope. It’s predominantly the same as everywhere – schitt jobs. The fact of the matter is that Seattle has been in an outrageous housing bubble since 1999.
“…the same as everywhere – schitt jobs.”
The kind that can support an $800k mortgage? LOL
I know many older middle-class folks in the area – late 70s and 80s. Their ranchers, purchased in the 60s and 70s new, are “worth” over a million, sometimes approaching two million. Not a single one of these people could even remotely afford to buy their house at today’s prices, and readily admit it – the telltale sign of a massive bubble.
“Their ranchers, purchased in the 60s and 70s new, are “worth” over a million, sometimes approaching two million.”
Indeed, and typically with just one income too.
Fear of not getting out FONGO
It’s a FONGO Bongo party. Dance to the beat of realtors cancelling their licenses, mortgage brokers applying for jobs at Home Depot, and trapped flippers and developers discounting their listings every other week.
‘The Reserve Bank of Australia’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle has triggered the housing market’s biggest decline in more than four decades’
There are several articles on this today. Not only is it the biggest crater, it happened in months instead of years.
It is different this time!
‘We are forking out another $3000 a month on top of the tenants’ rent just to keep it’
That’s the spirit!
‘Paul said she also considered that option but would have to sell the house at less than what she bought it for five years ago’
Five years would take you back to the last major crater Amber.
“So last month the interest on my investment property was $2700 a month. Just seven months ago in May it was less than half that at $1300 a month.”
An Australian influencer! LOL
While journalists are writing about “thousands of deaths a day, and millions infected and people locked up in their homes for fear of dying,” look at Wuhan protesting their criminal communist government.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Z7JHqkm0cuOt/
40 seconds. Does it look like they are worried about CCP virus?
Covid vaccines are poison.
FraudXi and Co. created a gain of function virus in the lab then set it loose upon the people. Then they stole shelter and purchasing power from the working class and poor, and locked them up in cages while unleashing a propaganda war via the bought-and-paid-for lamestream media telling them how bad they were if they didn’t act like a bootlicking subserviant cvck.
𝗦𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮 𝗔𝗻𝗮, 𝗖𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟵% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗢𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝘆 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗽 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗔 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸
https://www.movoto.com/santa-ana-ca/market-trends/
𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥, “𝘐𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 $50 𝘢 𝘴𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘨𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘥.”
strike>They are no longer ‘making a faster decision on buying a house than you would [when buying] a pair of shoes,’‘We can no longer conspire for a fraudulent appraisal when borrowing for a house’ said Windermere agent Cristina Ross.
Keep gyrating Cristina.
Tuckasegee, NC Housing Prices Crater 32% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Blanket Rural Carolina Areas
https://www.movoto.com/tuckasegee-nc/market-trends/
They are no longer ‘making a faster decision on buying a house than you would [when buying] a pair of shoes,’‘We can no longer conspire for a fraudulent appraisal when borrowing for a house’ said Windermere agent Cristina Ross.Keep gyrating Cristina.
Tuckasegee, NC Housing Prices Crater 32% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Blanket Rural Carolina Areas
https://www.movoto.com/tuckasegee-nc/market-trends/
Rumors flying around that bankers’ bonus (huge part of their comp at director/managing director levels) will be 35-45% less this Jan. Look out in NYC, fancy NJ, Conn, Charlotte, Toronto etc., if you are selling high end luxury condos, houses or vacation homes.
A reader sent these in:
When you can’t afford a trip to Europe
https://twitter.com/TerribleMaps/status/1611734972364201985
Never imagined I’d see so many self-styled progressives furiously defending the national security state, government surveillance, repression of legal speech, and warmongering. Sick.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1612265595583479808
Asking $3.9 million in Vancouver, Canada… need to work on their sales pitch a bit LOL…
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1611835083857727488
Ron Butler
@ronmortgageguy
By far the stupidest thing about the Ban is 95% of Foriegn Money coming into Canada to buy RE is passed through family members who are Permanent Residents. So no Ban at all. Here is yet another example of our Government’s approach to fixing RE in Canada. THEATER not real action.
https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1611016529755217924
Ron Butler
@ronmortgageguy
Sweet Jaysus Bank Mortgage Renewal: 8.49%!!! Alternative Lender but My Oh My, this is bad. $1.065M Mortgage last year’s rate 3.24% this February’s Initial Renewal Offer 8.49% for 1 – Year Fixed. I have posted before about the growing crisis in Alternative Bank Renewals
https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1611352325964328960
AirDNA provides the “zestimate” AirBNB was missing. They are the Core Logics/Zillow/Redfin faculty to pump up the STR-buying faithful. I’d never explored their site, but it’s about as rosy as one would imagine if all your customers are steeped in or want to buy more STRs.
https://twitter.com/windgineering/status/1611441789386297347
“The savings will cushion the downturn” What savings?
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1611441167429734485
Went to an open house and the realtor said the owners are very motivated to sell
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1611867961291341824
I serve many of my clients who have homes worth 1+ million here in Boise…I’ve had a few tell me they had their house on the market June-December 2022 and had ZERO interest shown. Like not even one offer. Multiple price reductions. It’s about to get interesting…
https://twitter.com/zuch_e/status/1611869528673382400
If you bought in 2022 you need to mentally prepare for a huge L
https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1611936242542968833
Me when I read the STR folks crying about bookings down 70%
https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1612129725572591616
Sooo, The largest luxury real estate firm in FL just sent an internal price projection for the next year! I’ve never seen them anything but bullish! They are calling for a 15% decline in the next year alone!
https://twitter.com/ssun5555/status/1612230507785519104
I had an argument with a real estate agent recently about whether an area was “ghetto” after my experience living there. She said was being racist. So you tell me then, is this a nice neighborhood? Here’s a recent picture.
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1612251347172360192
BLOOMBERG: Goldman to Cut About 3,200 Jobs This Week After Cost Review 🤌
https://twitter.com/MenthorQpro/status/1612245393428856832
So where is the huge wage-price spiral FinTwit is talking about?
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1612033092054654976
$TSLA becoming Blackberry of electric vehicles in one chart 👇 (rho motion)
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1612182412582068225
2022 was the worst year for new auto sales (units sold) in over a decade: https://cnbc.com/2023/01/06/2022-us-auto-sales-are-worst-in-more-than-a-decade-.html
After 2008, go back three decades
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1145096
Automakers have been using the “supply chain” excuse to keep prices jacked up. That is running out of time.
https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1612098590570344450
Just got offered office space in San Francisco (SOMA) for the same price as 2009. Yikes.
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1611915246998032384
Las Vegas cracking down on unregistered AirBnBs, this begins in Arizona January 9th with hefty fines.
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1612140494259367939
Oh goodness, they picked a sweet widowed 83 year old woman renting out rooms in her home and teaching gardening classes in her backyard as the sympathetic STR operator to profile in this piece. This is interesting journalism here
https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1612144733547122689
If you are interested in #Globalhousing, we updated the @asr_london
monthly Global House Price Index data for clients just before the holidays… This is the picture for the 23 countries we (and the @DallasFed) monitor. It ain’t pretty… and remember this is nominal data! 1/3
https://twitter.com/IanRHarnett/status/1612140246652551169
Minneapolis Fed
“Not only are we talking about potentially needing to cut staff, but our fears are that we will have no choice but to close down our business.” Homebuilders share concerns in latest survey of the #construction industry.
https://twitter.com/MinneapolisFed/status/1612162976596852738
CarDealershipGuy
Carvana’s “penis era” in 1 picture. Stock is down 99% from all-time high.
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1611344847230615557
Better Dwelling
Crash is a technical term describing a 20% or greater decline in an asset price within 12 months. However, we can appreciate the emails explaining you feel mislead by the proper use of a term. We feel equally mislead when people say catfish, since it involves no cats.
https://twitter.com/BetterDwelling/status/1611021429352591360
Many will say this photograph of Toronto real estate is fake.
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1611059360783794177
China’s fourth largest real estate developer (Sunac) just got approval to extend bond repayments by an average of 3.5 years. Even people with deep pockets are extending repayments because they don’t see a return to stimulus soon.
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1611120333553008642
“People see the risk in a temporary 20% stock market decline…But chronic serious inflation is way more disastrous. The 7% annual rise in the Consumer Price Index in the 1970s doubled the price level in just 10 years…every dollar of savings lost 50% of its purchasing power.”
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1403174424585535489
$TSLA and $BTC
https://twitter.com/mallik70/status/1611781014128590849
You are wrong! This is Chinese people protesting price drops who recently purchased their Tesla. The price is 20% less now.
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1611596185281925120
REITs May Feel Sting from Bed Bath & Beyond’s Woes https://barrons.com/articles/bed-bath-beyond-reit-trouble-51673052704
Think REITs could be the next fertile area for shorts
https://twitter.com/TuttleCapital/status/1611724987857002499
“Never imagined I’d see so many self-styled progressives furiously defending the national security state, government surveillance, repression of legal speech, and warmongering. Sick.”
^This.
Oh goodness, they picked a sweet widowed 83 year old woman renting out rooms in her home and teaching gardening classes in her backyard as the sympathetic STR operator to profile in this piece. This is interesting journalism here
That’s the Tomato Lady. Heard about her when I got here in 2006.
https://sweettomatotestgarden.com/
Me when I read the STR folks crying about bookings down 70%
🦆😂
Never imagined I’d see so many self-styled progressives furiously defending the national security state, government surveillance, repression of legal speech, and warmongering. Sick.
Matt Taibbi was the first prominent one to finally wake up and smell the coffee, then start talking about it. “Progressives” are gaslighting Nazis who go around calling everybody Nazis.
Goldberg’s first book, Liberal Fascism: The Secret History of the American Left, from Mussolini to the Politics of Meaning”
I read this book some years ago , started to realize what was going on
Ronald Reagan: “If fascism ever comes to America, it will come in the name of liberalism.”
According to Snopes (of all places!!!), the former California governor and future U.S. president made the comment during a 1975 interview with 60 Minutes over a discussion of his economic philosophy.
They are the Core Logics/Zillow/Redfin faculty to pump up the STR-buying faithful.
I was reading comments about STRs somewhere in the past year – before the huge crater in house prices started – and there was an obviously young idiot who was talking about his “Instagram level Airbnbs.” I don’t even know what that means. What the FED did to housing is unforgivable, in my opinion.
16-Year-Old Collapses and Dies After Complaining About ‘Chest Problems’ and it didn’t even hit 60 over the weekend.
https://www.analyzingamerica.org/2023/01/678522
Does it seem llike Wall Street’s lemmings herd missed the memo that the Everything Bubble has popped?
Finance ·Stock market
The ‘everything bubble’ has popped and the experts on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley were spectacularly wrong about a ton of things
BY Will Daniel
January 7, 2023 at 4:00 AM PST
…
https://fortune.com/2023/01/07/forecasts-gone-wrong-wall-street-bitcoin-stock-market-everything-bubble/
I hear that if everyone thinks that we are going into a recession, that the opposite is likely, but what if everyone thinks that the opposite likely?
Hmmmmmmm?
Why is Wall Street cheery all of a sudden?
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN
Updated 1:53 PM EST, Mon January 9, 2023
New York CNN —
It’s only early January, but so far in 2023 the pendulum on Wall Street has swung (to paraphrase Billy Joel) from sadness to euphoria.
Stocks are off to a solid start following last year’s dismal performance. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all rallied again Monday and each index is up between 2% and 3% since the start of the new year.
Even the CNN Business Fear and Greed Index, which looks at seven indicators of market sentiment, is now inching closer to Greed territory — after languishing in Fear mode for the better part of the past few weeks.
But why is there such optimism on Wall Street all of a sudden? The headlines still aren’t necessarily that great.
Yes, the market cheered Friday’s jobs report because it showed slowing wage growth that could lead to a further reduction in inflation pressures and smaller rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. But it also showed the pace of job growth is slowing — and that could be a precursor to an eventual recession.
Meanwhile the Institute for Supply Management’s latest data showed the services sector, a big engine of the US economy, contracted last month. And several high-profile companies in the tech, consumer, financial services (and yes, media) industries have announced big layoffs or unveiled plans to hand out pink slips. Retailers such as Macy’s (M) and Lululemon (LULU) are warning about sales and profits.
Goldman Sachs will lay off up to 3,200 workers this week
Add all this up and it doesn’t sound like cause for celebration.
…
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/investing/stocks-sentiment-economy/index.html
all that means is more shorting opportunities
Gotta tread carefully as the fed has previously demonstrated its disdain for the invisible hand and shorty in particular.
The massive moves higher in this bear market are a symptom of the almost unfathomable amount of money the FED printed. It’s not gone, and it’s not going away any time soon.
Notice how they keep moving the goal posts on the imminent collapse – mostly the pivot people like butters. In reality, you cannot force that amount of money into the system and just take it out real quick. It doesn’t work like that. It has to exhaust itself over the course of years, and it’s never going away entirely.
These central bank policies have changed the course of history. Never before have they engaged in such a reckless, myopic endeavor. Nobody knows for sure where this is going because it’s never been done. I think one thing is obvious – life is going to be much more expensive for the working class and the poor forever. The FED just altered – stole – the quality of life.
“Never before have they engaged in such a reckless, myopic endeavor.”
The Roaring 20s, another easy money period that immediately preceded the Great Depression, would make an interesting comparison.
I read every book I could find on the 20’s and 30’s during the gfc. Seriously underappreciated time period in history with so many parallels to today. It was the first truly modern era recognizable by todays standards.
Wall Street hasn’t run out of gloomsters just yet.
Markets
Published January 9, 2023 3:39pm EST
S&P 500 could sink another 22%, Morgan Stanley warns
S&P 500 could drop to 3,000 points by end of year
By Megan Henney
FOXBusiness
The U.S. stock market could face even steeper losses in 2023 than many investors currently expect, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
Michael Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley and a long-time Wall Street bear, warned in a Monday analyst note that although consensus is forming behind the expectation of a recession in the first half of the year, investors may be underestimating the risk posed by weaker corporate earnings and a Federal Reserve committed to crushing inflation.
“The consensus could be right directionally, but wrong in terms of magnitude,” Wilson wrote in the note.
He suggested the S&P 500 could tumble to 3,000 points by year-end, down about 22% from current levels. The benchmark index already plunged about 19% in 2022.
…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sp-500-could-tumble-morgan-stanley-warns
If a Bear, Bull and Fed Got Into a Fight, Which One Would Win?
Let’s see how the old saying, ‘Don’t fight the Fed,’ applies to the action in the markets.
By JAMES “REV SHARK” DEPORRE
Jan 09, 2023 | 04:44 PM EST
The market enjoyed some lively follow-through action to start the day, but it turned into a very ugly intraday reversal. The main driver for the early buying was poor economic news that creates hope of a slightly less hawkish Fed combined with poor positions and some short squeeze.
The market turned down after several Fed members made comments again about how it is far too early for the Fed to proclaim victory over inflation, and there is likely to be several more hikes before sufficient progress is made.
The Fed has made it quite clear that it doesn’t want a market rally, and some members have expressed puzzlement at how the market doesn’t seem to be taking the Fed seriously. Everyone is aware of the old saying, “don’t fight the Fed” and they embrace it well in bull markets when the Fed is dovish, but in bear markets, with a hawkish Fed, they seem to ignore the advice.
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https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/if-a-bear-bull-and-fed-got-into-a-fight-which-one-would-win–16113162
Published January 9, 2023 12:47pm EST
Wealthy American wallets to take momentous hit from US recession
Steve Forbes on whether the US is headed for a ‘richcession’ in 2023
By Kristen Altus FOXBusiness
Forbes Media CEO Steve Forbes weighs in on the potential ‘rich-cession’ coming this year.
Millionaire and Forbes Media’s CEO warned that wealthy wallets may already be taking “big hits” from an inevitable economic recession coming this year.
“The big hits are going to come in 2023,” Steve Forbes told FOX Business’ Stuart Varney Monday. “In terms of an asset recession, I think you’re going to see it and you’re going to see it even more as the year wears on. That doesn’t mean you should shed tears, but they’re taking a proportionate hit in a ways they haven’t done in past recessions. This whole era we’re in now is so different from anything we’ve had before.”
On “Varney & Co.,” Forbes weighed in on his namesake magazine’s latest op-ed signaling that the U.S. economy is headed for a “richcession,” predicting the wealthiest Americans could lose the most capital amid volatile markets.
“When a recession is on the horizon, the rich usually don’t have to worry too much. They’re usually in a good position to ride out the rough economic times, the last to be affected and the first to recover value,” the Forbes article read. “But in the case of a richcession, wealthy Americans could feel a unique pinch on their budgets.”
The CEO further cautioned that markets are currently reacting to expectations of doing “a little better” and hopes of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, clouding judgment around upcoming crises.
Empty wallet
“You have consumers in debt, their savings rate is now down to a little more than 2%, you have companies that were accustomed to getting free money for year after year after year,” Forbes explained to Varney. “Suddenly they’re paying real money for that once free money, and a lot of companies and countries are going to be in crisis. So I think a lot of turbulence is going to be lying ahead. Not good for asset values.”
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https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/wealthy-wallets-take-momentous-hit-us-recession-forbes
The Financial Times
Markets Briefing Equities
US stocks pare gains after hawkish comments from Fed members
Investors price in 75% chance US central bank will raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point this month
Traders on floor of the New York Stock Exchange
The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite were up 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively
George Steer in London and Jaren Kerr in New York 9 hours ago
US stocks erased earlier gains after two Federal Reserve members said they expected the policy rate to surpass 5 per cent in 2023, curbing investors’ hopes for less restrictive monetary policy.
Wall Street’s blue-chip S&P 500, which had been up as much as 1.4 per cent earlier on Monday, closed 0.1 per cent lower on Monday, with pharmaceutical stocks featuring among the decliners. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, at one point up almost 2.3 per cent, finished 0.6 per cent higher, with Tesla and chipmakers Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices rising more than 5 per cent.
Both indices pared gains in afternoon trading following comments from the presidents of the US central bank’s San Francisco and Atlanta branches that the fed funds rate would need to surpass 5 per cent in order slow down inflation. Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said the rate should hold above that watermark for “a long time”.
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European stock futures lower; sentiment weakens ahead of Powell speech
Investing.com | Jan 10, 2023 01:59AM ET
European stock futures lower; sentiment weakens ahead of Powell speech
By Peter Nurse
Investing.com – European stock markets are expected to open lower Tuesday, after hawkish comments from Fed officials hit risk sentiment ahead of a widely-anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
At 02:00 ET (07:00 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.7% lower, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 0.6%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.5%.
European stocks closed higher on Monday, trading near eight-month highs, on growing hopes that the Eurozone will only suffer a shallow recession in the new year, overturning earlier fears of a severe slowdown.
However, sentiment has shifted overnight after two Fed officials, Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly, said the U.S. central bank would likely hike (interest) rates to above 5% and hold them there for some time as it attempts to control inflation still at elevated levels.
Aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed has prompted fears of a recession in the U.S., likely weighing heavily on the global market given the importance of the largest economy in the world.
This brings a speech by Fed boss Powell later in the session firmly into focus, as investors look for more clarity on the pace of future rate hikes.
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https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-stock-futures-lower-sentiment-weakens-ahead-of-powell-speech-2976761
𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗲, 𝗜𝗗 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟱% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗜𝗱𝗮𝗵𝗼 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱
https://www.movoto.com/grangeville-id/market-trends/
𝘖𝘯𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥, “𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘧𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘴.”
“The 8.4 per cent drop between May 2022 and January 2023 is the deepest peak-to-trough fall on CoreLogic’s records, which go back to 1980. ”
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxcX7e8xbrYV0YZLfvaKEnGO3OdQl4gZ92
When considering percentage declines in housing, it is instructive to bear in mind that for most recent buyers, a house is a highly leveraged asset purchase. Thus a given percentage decline in home prices is a sizable multiple larger for many home owners in terms of home equity loss.
Many recent buyers are already underwater, inplying they lost over 100% of their home equity.
implying
I saw BTO live at Golden Hall in San Diego sometime around 1974.
The average cost of buying a home in Kitchener-Waterloo peaked in February at $1,007,109 and has been steadily declining ever since.
FBs meeting their financial Waterloo in Waterloo. Why, this calls for an ABBA song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj_9CiNkkn4
Justice Department reviewing potentially classified documents found at Biden center
Would be funny if the PTB decide to make Biden the fall guy for all of the DNC fraud and deception. Doubt it would happen, but I’d laugh.
Being that he’s nothing more than a WEF puppet, I don’t see why they wouldn’t throw him under the bus once his usefulness has expired.
classified documents found at Biden center
Sounds familiar. Another case of projection?
https://twitter.com/Apoctoz/status/1612600318918811654
‘There have been more price adjustments in the last three or four months than in the past two or three years’
‘‘Three weeks ago, he told me he got this much for his house, and he didn’t like it. I said, ‘Well, you missed it’
‘I think it’s going to be a little more enjoyable to do house shopping over the next couple years because you get to negotiate the price down rather than up’
That’s the spirit! What a great crowd.
‘We are talking about the frenzied market of 2021 and early 2022, when there was less inventory, more buyers, and people were buying above asking price right and left’
This is Waco. The central bankers couldn’t see this? And how did this appraise?
Magnolia baby!
“Sellers Worry They Missed The Top And It Is Going Down, They Want To Get Out”
Anyone complaining about not “getting out at the top” in a few years, will be the same sort complaining that they did not “get back in at the bottom”.
And if those people knew exactly where the top and the bottom was, and they tried to execute their trades, that knowledge, and the actions they took, would change the Higgs field, and poof, the bottom would become the top and vice versa.
It’s all about quantum mechanics.
I just recalled that I know the guy that sold at the “top” of the market!
My neighbor, he bought his house here in Texas, kept it less than 2 years, made a gain of at least $250,000, but had to pay tax on the profit.
Then he moved to the Chicago area, and bought a mansion. Now he is $200,000 underwater.
I hope he likes Deep Dish Pizza.
Now he’s a tax cow to be milked dry for eternity to pay the salaries and retirements of the “big d!ck swinging” Lori Lightfoot and Co.
LOL, well stated. I could bot believe he left Texas for Illinois.
“…made a gain of at least $250,000, but had to pay tax on the profit.”
What about the $500,000 capital gains tax exclusion?
https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc701
Never mind!
“You’re eligible for the exclusion if you have owned and used your home as your main home for a period aggregating at least two years out of the five years prior to its date of sale.”
Only tourists eat deep dish. Locals eat some of the best thin crust you’ll find in all of the USA
“Fair is foul, and foul is fair, hover through fog and filthy air.”
— Willam Shakesphere, Macbeth
Happy New Year