The Over-Excited, Headless-Chicken Covid Market Has Disappeared
A report from Go Banking Rates. “In 2021, inflation pushed the housing market to record highs — but it wasn’t a bubble. ‘It’s not like 2008, because the growth we have seen in the past few years wasn’t based on ARM mortgages being given to people who couldn’t afford them,’ said Tomas Satas, CEO of Windy City HomeBuyer. ‘We will still see people upside-down in their mortgages and some foreclosures, but it will be a fraction of what we experienced back then. We’ve already seen the beginning of this market correction, and we know that properties are going to continue to lose value. However, this is more correction than recession.'”
From Realtor.com. “Adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer homebuyers on a budget an initially low interest rate, are making a big comeback. But as financial markets churn and the economy remains shaky, some borrowers are regretting their decision to opt for what many see as a risky gamble. About 43% of those who took out an ARM regretted it, according to a recent survey by U.S. News & World Report. The rate resets, usually annually, according to what interest rates are doing at the time. The popular 5/1 ARM, for example, will have a fixed rate for five years that then resets every year thereafter based on the market. That’s where folks can get themselves in trouble if they can’t afford their new mortgage payments when rates increase.”
From Fortune. “The Fed’s ongoing inflation fight—which saw mortgage rates spike from 3% to 6% in 2022—has set off the second biggest home price correction of the post-WWII era. Look no further than a Goldman Sachs paper put out last week with the title ‘Getting worse before getting better.’ Researchers at the investment bank argued in the paper that the national home price correction will continue through 2023. Nationally, a 10% peak-to-trough decline in U.S. home prices—which climbed 41% between March 2020 and June 2022—shouldn’t do too much financial damage, says Goldman Sachs. However, the firm says some regional markets won’t be so lucky.”
“In 2023, Goldman Sachs expects double-digit home price declines in major markets like Austin (-15.6), San Francisco (-13.7%), San Diego (-13.4%), Phoenix (-12.9%), Denver (-11.4%), Seattle (-11.2%), Tampa (-11.2%), and Las Vegas (-11.1%). Those markets are also the very places that the home price correction hit the hardest in the second half of 2022. Indeed, through November, Austin is down 10.4% from its 2022 peak home price.”
Big Island Now in Hawaii. “In mid-August, Sotherby Concierge Auction’s put up for auction an 11,000-square-foot, 5-bedroom mansion perched atop a cliff overlooking the Pacific Ocean on the Big Island’s Hamakua Coast. The rich were bidding on a 9.44-acre property in Ninole that comes with a tennis stadium for 450 spectators, basketball courts, an Olympic pool featuring a two-story waterslide, a 16-foot diving pool, a nine-hole golf course, rooftop helipad and a terrace with a lounging area. The mansion built in 2005 along Old Mamalahoa Highway has been rented for up to $10,000-a-night.”
“The property was bought for $6.8 million in December 2015. It was put on the market for $12.5 million in 2020. In February, it was listed for $9.95 million. With no takers, it was put up for auction, with a $5.75 million reserve. Recently, the property sold for $5.75 million plus a 12% buyer’s premium to buyer Eric Lochtefeld, according to Mansion Global.”
From Give Me Sport. “50 Cent has revealed he lost millions of dollars after buying a lavish 21-bedroom mansion once owned by Mike Tyson. The rapper, 47, bought the property for a reported £3.3 million in 2007. However, it wasn’t long before he began to regret that decision due to the costs of keeping the place running. ‘It had 18 bedrooms, 16 bathrooms, and it had a night club in it. I paid $4.1 million and I sold it for $3.1 million. I had it for 14 years, the upkeep was about $700,00 a year, just for that.'”
The Berkshire Eagle in Massachusetts. “Airbnb hosts in Great Barrington say a $200 yearly registration fee is yet another drain on their profits. They already have to pay state and local excise taxes, as well as other costs of renting out a home and property taxes. But town officials are looking to cover the roughly $40,000 annual cost of monitoring short-term rentals. One rental host told the board that the new $200 fee is ‘punitive,’ given the other government-imposed costs she bears – a 6 percent tax to the town, a 5.7 percent state tax and a 3 percent community impact fee. ‘It’s just, wow,’ said Maureen Meier. ‘You’ve already limited how many nights I can do, limited the overall money I can bring in and now I feel like you’re considering adding too much to that.'”
From Bakersfield.com in California. “Clearer signs of softening in Bakersfield’s rental housing market have raised doubts about how much private developers will continue to invest in building new apartments.The summary noted 554 rental units are under construction in Bakersfield, following at least 326 units completed in 2022. ASU’s multifamily real estate specialist, Marc Thurston, noted 2,634 units are planned, with 548 officially put on hold. ‘Due to the recent increases in construction interest rates and softening in the high-end rental market,’ Thurston wrote, ‘there is speculation about how many units will be built.'”
“‘If anything is going to happen, it would only be at the very best sites with … ownership that’s long term. Because I don’t see how you could do it otherwise,’ said Bakersfield high-end apartment developer Andy Fuller. Bakersfield’s multifamily market started 2022 ‘on fire’ with low inventory and low interest rates, Thurston’s report noted. Properties put on the market sold fast, helping push the average sale price up 15 percent to a new record for the city: $125,221 per unit.”
“Amid relatively steep interest rate increases, the pace of apartment sale transactions declined sharply in the third quarter, and the average price per unit dropped 7 percent. Fuller suggested it’s possible more than half of the projects that had been planned this year might not move forward because of how different conditions have become. That’d still be more than were built in recent years past, he added. ‘Things have changed, yeah they have,’ Fuller said.”
Bisnow Los Angeles in California. “During a recent attempt to acquire a property in North Hollywood, New Standard Equities CEO Edward Ring, whose company buys, upgrades and operates apartment properties in California and in the Pacific Northwest, said he saw firsthand how some who are attempting to exit the market before Measure ULA, the city of LA’s new real estate sale tax, goes into effect are butting up against an uncertain market and a buyer pool that expects to get an urgency discount.”
“Ring put an offer in for a North Hollywood property that hit the market because, he was told, the seller wanted to exit before the spring, when the transfer tax goes into effect. ‘Everyone swarmed on this one property, thinking it was going to be a deal,’ Ring said of himself and the five or so other bidders. Instead, Ring said ‘we came up pretty short in terms of where we thought value would be.’ He wasn’t the only one. Ring was told that the seller ‘found out where the market believes the values to be and has elected not to sell.'”
“Ring, like other buyers, is using debt to acquire new properties. He says they used to assume 65% to 75% of purchase prices as debt, now they are underwriting closer to 50% or 55%, because the cost of borrowing is up. That shift means their equity returns are dropping, so their prices have to as well, Ring said. Ring says his offers on properties have come down substantially, as his company believes values are down around 15%. ‘That’s a direct result of interest rates,’ Ring said. ‘We’re also not winning anything, so maybe we’ve overcorrected.'”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “The most desirable small communities, such as those within a couple hours of Toronto, uniformly saw skyrocketing prices over the pandemic as people left big cities for remote work. But similar to how those markets had larger value increases during the pandemic, they’re also seeing larger decreases. The recent drops have been significant in Ontario municipalities such as St. Catharines and London, where the average selling price in December, 2022, was down between 14 and 15 per cent from 12 months prior, according to Zolo Realty. The drop was even more steep in Belleville, which was down 25 per cent in December.”
“Those numbers are large when compared to a year-over-year drop of just 9 per cent in Toronto. The situation was similar in British Columbia, where regions such as the Okanagan and Kootenay had price drops of roughly 17 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, from their January, 2022, peak to their current level in December, 2022. The Metro Vancouver area only dropped 11 per cent during the same time.”
“Jeff Nelles, manager of Royal LePage ProAlliance Realty in Belleville, said people in his community may not be as financially pressed by high interest rates because anyone who bought in the early stages of the pandemic or earlier didn’t likely stretch themselves to own a home as much as someone in Toronto did. ‘We’re not seeing a ton who are going to get underwater in this, especially anyone who bought prior to 2020.'”
The Telegraph in the UK. “More expensive homes are bearing the brunt of the house price slump as they take longer to sell and achieve less of the asking price. Jonathan Hopper, of buying agents Garrington Property Finders said buyers of expensive properties are ‘acting more aggressively’ on price than those in cheaper markets, with more offers made at 15pc or more below the asking price.”
“James Greenwood, of buying agent Stacks, said asking prices are ‘over-inflated’ at the top end of the market because there are too many sellers who ‘think they are still going to get a Covid price.’ He said: ‘The over-excited, headless-chicken Covid market has disappeared.'”
From NL Times. “Existing home prices in the Netherlands were 6.4 percent lower in the fourth quarter of 2022 than a year earlier, the Dutch association of insurers NVM reported. Existing homes sold for an average of 407,000 euros in the fourth quarter, 3.7 percent lower than in the third quarter. The annual average price fell for the first time in nine years. ‘This marks a turning point compared to last year when the price increased by about 20% year-on-year,’ the NVM said. Twenty percent fewer newly constructed homes were purchased in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter. Those sales were down 46 percent compared to a year earlier. ‘This will increase further due to sharply increased land and construction costs and mortgage interest rates,’ said Chris van Zantwijk, the vice-chair of NVM Housing.”
News Corp Australia. “Money is a lot harder to get your hands on today than a year ago, and as a result, desperate would-be borrowers are fudging their finances to get approval. Comparison site Finder has revealed 1 in 8 mortgage holders admitted to lying on their home loan paperwork to get it over the line. The sample survey found 13 per cent admitted to falsifying details – a snapshot that would translate to more than 400,000 borrowers, given there are approximately 3.3 million mortgagors in Australia.”
“In the research, Finder also discovered 4 per cent (equal to more than 100,000) of home loan holders surveyed admitted they lied about their income and the same proportion again said they had falsified their level of existing debt. Home loans expert at Finder Richard Whitten said it isn’t unheard of that people stretch the truth while trying for a mortgage, but added that borrowers need to proceed with caution.”
“‘Being dishonest on a home loan application is a recipe for disaster. You might be committing an act of fraud and you could even lose your home in a worst-case scenario,’ he said. ‘While the lies might never come to light — your ability to afford the loan could create a lot of financial stress.'”
From ABC News. “In the cold early morning on New Year’s Day, Mr Kang arrived in Zhengzhou, in China’s Henan province, to demand answers in a bid to unfreeze his bank account. But shortly after he stepped out of the car after the 18-hour journey from Shanghai, he was bundled into a police car and detained. Mr Kang is one of more than a thousand people left unable to withdraw their own money after a financial scandal rocked four banks in rural China.”
“The 34-year-old said he had deposited about 2.1 million yuan ($450,000) – his family’s whole life savings — in his now-frozen account. Since April last year, at least 40 billion yuan ($8.5 billion) has been frozen in four of the small-sized banks, including Mr Kang’s bank. It triggered months of massive protests. Mr Kang, who gave only his surname as he feared repercussions from Chinese authorities, said he was ‘on the verge of collapse’ due to his family’s massive financial burden.”
“The financial strife has also caused immense personal loss. Four months ago, Mr Kang’s wife became pregnant. Although they had hoped to have a second child for a long time, he said they eventually aborted the pregnancy due to their dire financial straits. ‘We couldn’t afford to go back to the check-ups,’ he said. ‘[My wife] cried for a long time.'”
“According to Chinese state-owned media Xinhua News Agency, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) in May said the incident was due to fraud committed by the banks’ shareholder, Henan New Fortune Group. The four rural banks had promised customers high returns of between 13 and 18 per cent, in what has now been described as a Ponzi-like scheme.”
“On New Year’s Day, Mr Kang said a man in plain clothes ‘came behind me and shoved me into the nearby police car while I was walking along the roadside. I was just looking for other depositors to go to Henan’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Office together to ask about the case,’ he said. Mr Kang said police searched, interrogated, and verbally humiliated him and other seven depositors repeatedly after taking them to Zhengzhou’s Linshanzhai police station.”
“One police officer ‘slapped the table, very aggressively,’ Mr Kang said. ‘[He demanded that] I put down my phone password on paper with my name and ID number. I saw that there was a poster with some rules and regulations for the police on the wall, which clearly require that suspects ‘should not be beaten, verbally humiliated or attacked.’ They all violated them,’ he said.”
“One other bank customer, who asked not to be named, said he had more than 7 million yuan ($1.5 million) deposited at Shangcai Huimin Village Bank and Zhecheng Huanghuai Village Bank, which was all his family’s savings. He said he was beaten by police officers from the Linshanzhai police station when he went to Zhengzhou on New Year’s Day. ‘[They] first beat [me] in the office,’ he said. ‘Then I was dragged to the bathroom by two police officers, who beat and kicked me and attacked my head, face, abdomen, and eyes.’ The man also showed the ABC a photo he said was taken afterward showing scars and bruises on his forehead.”
‘The financial strife has also caused immense personal loss. Four months ago, Mr Kang’s wife became pregnant. Although they had hoped to have a second child for a long time, he said they eventually aborted the pregnancy due to their dire financial straits. ‘We couldn’t afford to go back to the check-ups,’ he said. ‘[My wife] cried for a long time.’
All of the people so eager to give up our basis rights should read this last article.
Realtors are liars.
Chinese secret police monitoring texts and internet posts by citizens upset by their inability to withdraw their funds from insolvent banks reported the most common sentiment expressed by the bagholders was “realtors are liars.”
“Although they had hoped to have a second child for a long time, he said they eventually aborted the pregnancy due to their dire financial straits.”
That’s a selfish excuse for an abortion.
Abortion was never a basis [sic] right. Ever. Even the far left liberal RBG said so. Sandra Day O’Conner said so too although she added many have come to believe it is.
It is a State by State issue.
What is a certain right is LIFE, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
‘We’re not seeing a ton who are going to get underwater in this, especially anyone who bought prior to 2020′
Keep moving those goal posts Jeff.
‘buyers of expensive properties are ‘acting more aggressively’ on price than those in cheaper markets, with more offers made at 15pc or more below the asking price’
That’s the spirit!
𝗦𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗼𝘁𝗮, 𝗙𝗟 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟳% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵/𝗩𝗮𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻/𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗲𝘀
𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘥𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘥, “𝘐𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶’𝘳𝘦 𝘢 𝘣𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘳, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘴 𝘭𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶. 𝘐 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘢 𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘳 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘐 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘰𝘯𝘦. 𝘐’𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘭𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘮𝘺 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘳𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘦.”
About 43% of those who took out an ARM regretted it, according to a recent survey by U.S. News & World Report.
If stupid didn’t hurt, fools would never learn.
With an ARM you can buy more house. Man up!
The Berkshire Eagle in Massachusetts. “Airbnb hosts in Great Barrington say a $200 yearly registration fee is yet another drain on their profits. They already have to pay state and local excise taxes, as well as other costs of renting out a home and property taxes. But town officials are looking to cover the roughly $40,000 annual cost of monitoring short-term rentals.”
– STRs should are illegal motels in resi neighborhoods. No on site supervision. No front desk. Possible hidden cameras. High rental costs and cleaning fees. It was always a bad idea. Just stay in a hotel/motel.
– Not possible without brown envelopes of $ to local gooberment to look the other way on standing zoning and noise ordinances.
– Removes supply from the market, raising prices and rents, contributing to the current distorted housing and rental markets.
– The tide is turning. The tide is going out. The business model never made sense, but the true cost, like with so many “investments” today, was obscured by corruption and cheap $.
Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. @ParikPatelCFA
Airbnb and Uber are the antithesis of technology
An inferior product that now costs more than legacy equivalents
2:17 PM · Jan 15, 2023 · 1.2M Views
If you patronize Airbnb, you are a large part of the problem. Boycott Airbnb. With no users, Airbnb ceases to exist.
One rental host told the board that the new $200 fee is ‘punitive,’ given the other government-imposed costs she bears – a 6 percent tax to the town, a 5.7 percent state tax and a 3 percent community impact fee.
Die, speculator scum.
The situation was similar in British Columbia, where regions such as the Okanagan and Kootenay had price drops of roughly 17 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, from their January, 2022, peak to their current level in December, 2022.
Is that a lot?
“Is that a lot?”
Bachman Turner Overdrive – You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet 1974 Video Sound HQ
19,397,387 views Mar 18, 2014
BTO – You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet (Single, Album, Not Fragile 1974)
Randy Bachman – Vocals, Guitar
C. Fred Turner – Bass
Blair Thornton – Lead Guitar
Robbie Bachman – Drums
RIP Robbie Bachman. He died a few days ago.
“The 34-year-old said he had deposited about 2.1 million yuan ($450,000) – his family’s whole life savings — in his now-frozen account.
This is why your wiser ancestors buried gold & silver in the back yard rather than entrusting their money to a crooked banking system, or “investing” in shoddily constructed skyboxes.
He should have kept his wealth in Bitcoin stored on a cold wallet. Just as good as gold.
Is there a reason Sh!tCON went parabolic again? I haven’t been paying attention, but just noticed it went up by like 30% in a week or something.
Uh, morons and knife catching?
Kind of, the hoards were mostly meant to be kept from roving bands of marauders pillaging the landscape with the collapse of any centralized government. And often, the owner of the hoard went to his grave without being able to retrieve his gold.
A report from Go Banking Rates. “In 2021, inflation pushed the housing market to record highs — but it wasn’t a bubble. ‘It’s not like 2008, because the growth we have seen in the past few years wasn’t based on ARM mortgages being given to people who couldn’t afford them,’ said Tomas Satas, CEO of Windy City HomeBuyer. ‘We will still see people upside-down in their mortgages and some foreclosures, but it will be a fraction of what we experienced back then. We’ve already seen the beginning of this market correction, and we know that properties are going to continue to lose value. However, this is more correction than recession.’”
– From the article: “Unlike in 2008, Current Housing Market Fundamentals Are Healthy”
– Not investment advice. Do your due diligence. No fiduciary responsibility. Just shilling a narrative and agenda, IMHO.
– If anything, the bursting of “The Everything Bubble,” aka “The Central Bank Bubble” will be worse than 2008, since larger and more assets are involved. Oh, it’s a bubble all right.
– People should be held responsible for these type of articles. Let’s see what happens in 2023. I don’t think it will be pretty and it won’t end in one year after 13 years of easy money. The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” – Mike Tyson
The duck test: “If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it’s a duck!” – Robin Cook, Crisis
“You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of reality.” – Ayn Rand
Realtors are liars
Every closing is a crime scene.
but it wasn’t a bubble. ‘It’s not like 2008, because the growth we have seen in the past few years wasn’t based on ARM mortgages being given to people who couldn’t afford them,’ said Tomas Satas
This guy doesn’t even understand the definition of a bubble.
“It is hard to get a man to understand something when his paycheck requires that he not understand it.”
– Upton Sinclair
Have investors grown tone deaf to the central bankers’ rate hike song and dance act?
The Financial Times
European stocks tick up as investors shrug off central bank warnings
Officials say core inflation remains too high to justify cutting interest rates soon
The London Stock Exchange
London’s FTSE 100 rose close to an all-time high on Monday
George Steer 57 minutes ago
European stocks inched higher and US futures slipped on Monday, as investors weighed cooling inflation on both sides of the Atlantic with warnings from central bank officials that interest rates would probably stay higher for longer than markets expected.
The regional Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.3 per cent, taking its gains for 2023 to 5.4 per cent, while London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2 per cent, close to an all-time high. US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr holiday, after Wall Street’s blue-chip S&P 500 notched its largest weekly gain in two months on Friday.
Equity markets have been boosted by signs of slowing price growth in the US and Europe. US inflation fell to its lowest level in more than a year in December, while consumer prices in the eurozone rose at an annual rate of 9.2 per cent, down from 10.1 per cent in November.
“…consumer prices in the eurozone rose at an annual rate of 9.2 per cent, down from 10.1 per cent in November.”
It takes under eight years for a currency to lose half its value at a 9.2 percent inflation rate:
1-(1-0.092)^8 = 54% value loss
“…consumer prices in the eurozone rose at an annual rate of 9.2 per cent, down from 10.1 per cent in November.”
– Across the pond in the U.S., inflation has been “transitory” since the founding of the Fed in 1913, where the purchasing power of the original 1913 dollars is down to below 3 cents. It has only accelerated since Nixon removed the gold standard on Aug. 15th, 1971.
“Gold is a store of wealth. Fiat currencies offer a store of wealth debasement.” – Peter Spina
“Fiat money eventually always goes back to its intrinsic value – zero.” – Voltaire
“When you destroy the money, you destroy the glue that holds society together.” – Tony Deden
“All the money and all the banks in Christendom cannot control credit…Gold is money and nothing else.” – JP Morgan’s 1912 Congressional testimony on “the justification of Wall Street”
– Just look at Turkey, for example, with historically high inflation. It’s citizens know better than to hold cash and instead own gold. It’s not different in the Eurozone or the U.S. Central banks and fiat currencies are governments way of taxation without legislation/representation. Inflation is outright theft. Few.
– It’s been going on for centuries. They think we won’t notice. Wink!, wink!, nudge!, nudge!
– Got gold?
under eight years for a currency to lose half its value
You would suspect that if you thought the price of your groceries is actually “inflation”. However, if you looked at the expansion of the money supply and saw 25% or 40% increases, you would think something else entirely.
if you looked at the expansion of the money supply and saw 25% or 40% increases, you would think something else entirely.’
taking a pay cut every hour
You would suspect that if you thought the price of your groceries is actually “inflation”.
CPI – the Consumer Price Index – measures the rate of change in prices of a basket of goods over time, of which food items are included. The results, in turn, are released as the rate of inflation year over year.
If you look up the definition of “inflation,” a “rise in prices” or “a sustained increase in the price level of goods and services” are definitions you will find.
Did central bank money printing – the dilution of the currency – cause it? Absolutely. But that is not how CPI and inflation are calculated.
But that is not how CPI and inflation are calculated.
I don’t dispute your right to take that view, but I think it will mislead you by far. That is intended.
The four rural banks had promised customers high returns of between 13 and 18 per cent, in what has now been described as a Ponzi-like scheme.”
Whoop, there it is. You got greedy, Mr. Kang. An honest man would’ve recognized a Ponzi when he saw such high rates of return.
An honest man would not murder his own child to cover up the signs of his gambling losses.
I totally agree!
How do these numbers square up with Redfin’s 4% loss prediction?
“In 2023, Goldman Sachs expects double-digit home price declines in major markets like Austin (-15.6), San Francisco (-13.7%), San Diego (-13.4%), Phoenix (-12.9%), Denver (-11.4%), Seattle (-11.2%), Tampa (-11.2%), and Las Vegas (-11.1%). Those markets are also the very places that the home price correction hit the hardest in the second half of 2022.”
The pros sure do come up with an interesting range of estimated housing price declines!
Utah The West U.S. & World
What will 2023 bring to the housing market? Predictions include price drops, ‘terrible consolidation,’ but better buyer balance
When will home prices drop in 2023? Here are the forecasts
By Katie McKellar
Jan 13, 2023, 5:12pm PST
Will U.S. home prices drop in 2023?
Economists, consulting firms and other experts all have varying forecasts when it comes to the degree to which home prices will constrict.
“Price forecasts for this year (are) somewhat uncertain,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told the Salt Lake Board of Realtors crowd on Friday.
‘Yun has said the margin of price declines will likely depend on the region. High-cost areas like San Francisco, he said, will see a 15% price decline. The Midwest, he said, will likely see “minimal price increases.”
Strong job growth cities like Boise and Salt Lake City are harder to forecast, he said, as affordability issues keep first-time buyers from getting into the market.
“So it’s really tough to say, but I think it’s going to be minimal negative, or negative positive,” Yun said. “Or if it’s little more meaningful declines, a 10% decline, take advantage of those because 10 years from now you’ll see much better conditions.”
Overall, Yun has predicted U.S. home sales to fall by 6.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, and he expects home prices to increase only 0.3%, or essentially flatline.
Here are what other organizations and firms are predicting:
– Realtor.com predicts home prices will still rise 5.4% in 2023, while mortgage rates will average 7.4%.
– Freddie Mac forecasts U.S. home prices will drop by only a slight 0.2%, with an average mortgage rate of 6.4%.
– Redfin predicts the median U.S. home sale price will fall 4% in 2023
– Capital Economics predicts 2023 will be the “worst year for sales since 2011,” and expects house prices to drop 6% this year, which would result in a peak-to-trough drop of about 8% to 10%.
– Moody’s Analytics expects a peak-to-trough U.S. home price decline of 10% — or a 15% to 20% decline if a recession hits, Fortune reported.
– John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%, Fortune reported, based on the assumption that mortgage rates linger close to 6% through the year.’
This is lazy, braindead analysis by Goldman. If you take the current median prices in those markets, then simply move them forward several months and then compare them to 2022 peak pricing, you already get those YOY declines. In essence, they are not even forecasting the current median price to drop any further.
Some of the most accurate forecasts ‘predict’ what has already transpired but is not yet widely known.
Didn’t they also predict Carvana to $400? Zillow to $200 etc?
Russia Today, because the New York Times and Washington Post are globalist scum media.
Zelensky is destroying Ukraine – exiled opposition leader (1/16/2023):
“The policies of President Vladimir Zelensky’s government – based on hatred and intransigence towards Russia – are inevitably driving Ukraine into poverty, the former parliamentary opposition leader has warned.
Viktor Medvedchuk, who was forced into exile after being arrested by the SBU (the successor agency to the Soviet KGB), claims that Kiev is encouraging the same approach in other European states. He believes that such dangerous sentiment could even lead to an eventual nuclear standoff.
Medvedchuk’s political party was the second largest in the current Ukrainian parliament, before it was banned last year. The rump of the faction is now closely controlled by Zelensky’s “Servant of the People” group.
As part of his crackdown on dissent, the President personally targeted Medvedchuk, who was a proponent of reconciliation with Russia, the latter has claimed in an article published on Monday in Russian newspaper Izvestia, in which he gives his view on the roots of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
Both Zelensky and his predecessor Pyotr Poroshenko had been elected after the 2014 coup in Kiev on a platform of peace, and each made a U-turn after getting into office, Medvedchuk pointed out. He argued that this shows a pattern of betrayal of the Ukrainian people by its leadership and by what he termed a “party of war.”
Zelensky is a war criminal.
Keep paying those federal income taxes, slaves.
“Enhanced training of Ukraine combat elements by U.S. forces in Germany has begun, with the aim of having a battalion ready to field against the Russians within five weeks, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced Sunday.
AP reports Milley plans to visit the Grafenwoehr training area on Monday to get a first-hand look at the program being delivered by the 7th Army Training Command.
The U.S. has already trained about 3,100 Ukrainian troops on how to use and maintain certain weapons and other equipment, including howitzers, armored vehicles and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS.
Milley said the latest tranche left Ukraine a few days ago and are now based in Germany using a full set of donated weapons and equipment alongside trainers not just from the U.S. but from other countries around the world.”
Russia is winning.
learning just enough to be able to be cannon fodder, or how to explain how it works when selling it on the black market.
Ukraine sold the U.S. over 1,100 of its nuclear warheads in return for billions to support their economy and the promise of military assistance, 1994 Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances, should Russia wage an attack. FWIW, I’d be surprised if more than 25% of the cash made its way to main street.
Ukraine sold the U.S. over 1,100 of its nuclear warheads in return for billions to support their economy and the promise of military assistance
History must have changed. Back when it happened, all the nuke stuff went back to Russia, with security assurances. Things change I guess, especially the past.
Yep, you’re right. Ukraine actually had over 1,700 warheads, which were returned to Russia in a trade for aircraft among other things. I was thinking of Kazakhstan; we bought over 1,100-lbs of its highly enriched uranium for millions in cash and billions in economic assistance to the former Soviet republics.
There was some sob story posted on Yahoo yesterday about his wife and the plight of Ukrainians. Interestingly, the comments section was littered with references to her Paris shopping excursions. People aren’t buying the propaganda.
When Charles Darwin visited the Galapagos Islands, he was developing his theory of evolution as he observed the variety of the shapes of their beaks, for extracting seeds, cracking nuts, etc.
Zelensky’s beak evolved from its increased capacity to inhale U.S. taxpayer money and cocaine (paid for by U.S. taxpayer money).
This CIA installed globalist dances around in high heels and leather pants, and they’re going to install a bust of him in the U.S. Capitol building.
“They’re not sending their best”
They should put his whole statue in high heels and all, so that our grandchildren can better understand what happened.
“‘It’s not like 2008, because the growth we have seen in the past few years wasn’t based on ARM mortgages being given to people who couldn’t afford them,’…”
It’s different this time.
“Adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer homebuyers on a budget an initially low interest rate, are making a big comeback. But as financial markets churn and the economy remains shaky, some borrowers are regretting their decision to opt for what many see as a risky gamble.”
“…50 Cent has revealed he lost millions of dollars after buying a lavish 21-bedroom mansion once owned by Mike Tyson. I had it for 14 years, the upkeep was about $700,00 a year, just for that…”
Gotta’ sell a lot of records, to keep that monster going, 50 cent.
But, alas, some good news: You probably have 1-upped Nicolas Cage for stupid real estate ‘investments’
the upkeep was about $700,00 a year, just for that.’”
Nice to have a realistic estimate of upkeep. I’m curious what the breakdown would be, especially in Connecticut. $100K for full-time handyman, probably $50K each for cleaning, landscaping, and utilities (heating oil!), $75K security, property taxes…
“…I’m curious what the breakdown would be, especially in Connecticut….”
Imagine a good chunk just for payroll.
That’s the problem with big houses in general. They are so huge that you *have* to hire others just to keep the place dusted.
Example: Plumbing can go bad [leak] if not used. With so many bed/bath rooms who is going to keep track?
Another example: So much exterior/interior space that you need to hire a [nearly] full time painter, especially if you intend to entertain all those Hollywood types.
Highly unlikely to see 50 cent out in front mowing is own lawn.
Over the years, the HBB and readers have posted many stories about celebrities making incredibly bad real estate purchases.
IMO, a complete waste.
They are so huge that you *have* to hire others just to keep the place dusted.
I have a rather small house, yet I don’t seem to keep it well dusted. My Mom’s not around to notice.
This story reminds me of that Beverly Hills mansion that Mark Wahlberg built and recently vacated. A huge money pit.
Is it the one somebody posted here that’s in a ravine? You never build there. There are innumerable reasons why, not the least of which it’s really dark and feels enclosed.
There are some interesting YouTube channels by people who go around visiting abandoned mansions that nobody wants. Unless the location is desirable a mansion has a half life of about 25 years. At about the 50 year point you can’t give it away.
“…At about the 50 year point you can’t give it away….”
As been pointed out so many, many times here on the HBB, a home [structure] is actually a *depreciating* asset.
Of course, the REIConplex will have you believe that the cracked concrete pad or leaky roof is actually increasing in value. What a bunch of fraudsters.
Octal is clearly spreading misinformation, where is our online safety expert??? Everyone knows that plywood is a uniquely special material that only increases in value as it rots. False claims of depreciation should be ‘de-amplified asap’.
Is de-amplification the same as negative amplification or does it mean softening the curve?
Everyone knows that plywood is a uniquely special material that only increases in value as it rots
Bummer, I only have OSB. I guess that doesn’t increase in value as it rots? Sigh, I never win…
I only have OSB
Nobody will see it. You’re still on the ladder!
How’s the build going? Shame you caught the lumber bubble head on.
My son has been building, I gave him all my dimensional pine in the last year or so. Now I’m down to walnut and cherry in the barn.
Who was the guy who said “Houses never appreciate. It’s the land that appreciates.”
I want to a buy in a certain area, and recently spotted a garbage old 1950s house that has been neglected. The price is high. Why? The realtor in the listing said “the value is in the land”!
With a globe full of land where 95% of it goes undeveloped, it’s not “the land!” either.
Hope you didn’t pay more than $500 an acre.
Federal Way, WA Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Seattle Foreclosure Rate Soars On Skyrocketing Unemployment
– Happy MLK Day everyone!
– I have great respect for the man and what he stood for, but the art for his memory is grotesque.
Published January 16, 2023 7:00am EST
New Martin Luther King Jr. and Coretta Scott King sculpture called ‘hideous’: ‘Fire whoever designed that’
“Critics agreed the statue was “horrible,” “hideous,” “awful,” and worse.”
– Meanwhile many/most of the dignified statues of historically important U.S. figures and statesmen are being systematically removed and replaced with… this. I think there’s a metaphor in there somewhere.
“They’re not sending their best.” – Donald J. Trump
His legacy ended when Obama said if I had a son knowing full well travon was on a jail track and not a college one.
I thought it was a rare bit of honesty from Obama. Weren’t his girls busted gettin’ high on the dank, worshippin’ thugs?
Stickers of the dead caused by the jabs are posted on windows of the BBC…
This is the way!
100% safe and effective.
Bitchute. Well done sir!
do we trust any industry (or even some government) data?
An example – a friend just came back from Hong Kong (where his family is deeply involved (70years+) in real estate. He mentioned that commercial office real estate vacancy was 30%+ (including space available for sub-lease). But companies are slow to report this … (corp perf or lending etc????)
Yet when I look this up – the official reporting is 11.8% vacancy in Nov.
The overall vacancy rate rose to 11.6% as of end-November, driven by the completions of Landmark South in Wong Chuk Hang and The Millennity (98 How Ming Street) in Kwun Tong. The vacancy rate in Central and Wanchai / Causeway Bay rose marginally to 8.7% and 10.1%, respectively, while Tsimshatsui’s vacancy rate retreated to 10.9% from 11.0%.
Hong Kong SAR is one of the most manipulated real estate markets in the world. I wouldn’t trust a word their mouthpieces say. They stand to lose too much.
‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.’
Now that the globalists & their Democrat-Bolshevik Quislings have weaponized the DoJ & FBI against political dissidents, they are going to drop the mask even more.
Replacement theory is not a theory, and its primary supporters are the Anti Defamation League, the Southern Poverty Law Center, and George Soros.
The #Noticing will continue.
Yoel Roth could not be reached for comment.
What she is attempting is blatant racism. She should be charged with a hate crime.
It’s a direct violation of the Establishment Clause. “Congress shall pass no law restricting..”
A reader sent these in:
Builders always cut down when there is a supply shortage… right ok 👌
Blessed and highly qualified
Found an @Airbnb for €120 a night for two nights. The total was €650! This is a dirty practice. They should just tell you the whole price right off the bat and be honest. Anyone get annoyed at this?
Airbnb and Uber are the antithesis of technology. An inferior product that now costs more than legacy equivalents
Federal rates too low too long = family homelessness
Ambitious realtor holding an open house today in Tahoe.
Declining Rents Signal a Crash in the Housing Market – Bloomberg
“We are lowering our 2023 forecast for year-over-year depreciation in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index to -6.1% from -4.1% previously. This would represent an aggregate peak-to-trough decline of roughly 10% in U.S. home prices,” writes @GoldmanSachs
October 2022: 4 major housing markets were down (in terms of home prices) on a year-over-year basis. November 2022: 14 markets were down YoY. December 2022: 29 markets were down YoY. Data via @JBREC
How the hell did this cost $30
I’m using this as a housing point of entry predictor. At 6% mortgage rates, that figure is $350k (red line), but I fully expect it to once again dip below the green or $300k. My original prediction was $225k-300k eventual national median price. By rate or price
Thousands of elites will fly into Davos on private jets this week to discuss how regular people should stop consuming so much. If this was really about saving the planet, why don’t they do the conference over Zoom?
The Kobeissi Letter
Car market update:
1. Used cars down 15% in December
2. 16% of buyers have $1000+ monthly payment
3. Carvana near bankruptcy with $7 billion in debt
4. Average used car loan rate near 10%
5. Interest over life of car loan at all time high
The worst part? Rates are going up.
“Waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates so I can buy Facebook again makes about as much sense as being in Tokyo in 1992 and thinking, ‘Oooh, when is the BoJ gonna cut so I can buy Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi again?’”
Zillow, with a comment section
A house in my neighborhood sold for $750,000 last year. It just got listed on the market at $450,000. The housing market is crashing and mainstream media isn’t talking about it.
The German housing market is facing a major split. While prices of new buildings still rose 5% last year, old buildings slumped almost double-digit This is b/c there is a risk of stranded assets due to the multi-billion euro energy refurbishment.
Was touring an investment property listed at $385k and agent was touting how they were getting $2,300/mo rent. Another client had a pre-qual of $325k with a total monthly payment (including everything) at $2,300. 👀 the math isn’t mathing
The old “marry the house, date the rate” mantra is going to get folks sideways..fast. Refinancing into a lower rate may help reduce their monthly payment, but it won’t help claw back that $200,000 in equity they lose over the course of 12 months (market specific of course)
This is also driving the spike in temporary buydowns – borrowers believing / being lead to believe they will be able to refi before the payment jump. This is 2006-era behavior. It is going to end badly. 2H 22 vintage mortgages are going to see GFC level defaults.
Higher DTIs in new originations. Borrowers stretching to afford elevated prices with increased rates. Borrowers stretching because they believe they will be able to refinance at 3% within a year or two. That’s what they are being told. 2022 vintage is worst since 2008.
2 different real estate markets in metro Phoenix. Single-family houses < 2,000 square feet. 7% MORE houses for sale than same week in 2019. Single-family houses 4,000-6,000 square feet. 55% FEWER houses for sale than same week in 2019. What's going on? https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1614681473659056129
If there isn’t enforcement on airbnbs we’ll find there are two types of locations: – places where there are only STRs and no longterm residents other than service sector employees in company housing. – places that are less desirable, and there are no STRs just LTRs
There are a lot of “experts” who are assuming interest rates are the only problem and housing could be back to “frenzy mode” if we get to low 5s
Fed’s balance sheet runoff has been too slow. There’s still too much liquidity in the system. If they take their foot off the brake this excess liquidity inflates another speculative bubble in energy and food at the worst possible time. Not lowering means the Dollar skyrockets.
The quest for the Holy Grail continues…
The @WEF Board of Trustees is pretty grotesque.
THE BANK OF JAPAN IS PREPARING TO PURCHASE MORE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS ON MONDAY
They just purchased $78 billion in a week. Enjoy the ride.
China is beginning to export inflation to the rest of the world in the worst possible ways, after 20yrs of exporting deflation.
The Kobeissi Letter
Things the Fed has said since 2020:
1. Recession is unlikely
2. Inflation is transitory, will hit 2% in 2022
3. Interest rates will not rise until 2024
4. Fed should buy bonds and ETFs
5. NOW: Soft landing is still possible
Soft landing is the new “inflation is transitory.”
8 times it fell this hard. 8 times we had a recession. It’s the Conference Board Leading Indicators divided by Lagging Indicators. All 8 times it fell 10.6% or more, which is the current decline, we were in recession at that very moment. Recession right now.
Central bankers can’t be happy.
Bank of Japan meeting next week is gonna be liiiiittttttt 🔥 Rates markets betting something’s gonna go. Check out 10-year swaps.
XII. Commodities and Cash Were King
Among the major asset classes, only Commodities and Cash (Treasury Bills) ended 2022 higher.
VII. The Housing Market Downturn
The combination of skyrocketing prices and skyrocketing mortgage rates made housing more unfordable than ever before. What followed: a collapse in demand/activity, and then with a lag, prices starting to fall.
RIA asserts that the housing bubble is due to pandemic stimulus checks. That is a load of bullsh$t. Those ended 18 months ago.
This shows that QE was the main driver, as Fed bailouts keep getting bigger. Buying conditions now worst in history:
1/ some will be triggered by me but if you can’t afford a $200 property tax increase per year maybe you shouldn’t be a homeowner. RE industry complaining about this literally helped inflate the market then get upset about taxes going up. Where was the rage when homes mooned?
The person who posted this mentioned that she thought they would be good tenants bc they were realtors & a realtor found them for her 😳
I find it disgusting that we have monetized homes meant for families,while corporations use homes as an asset on their balance sheet. Maybe one day a politician with true family values will say enough is enough.
If someone buys a gut job of a home and adds value – i do not see an issue with that but these flippers who brag about huge profits with doing nothing or bare minimum do upset me. Realtors bragging about it in the midst of a full blown housing crisis annoy me.
Thank God for these links… Twitter is a great way to get the word out about falling housing prices. They’re wildly popular there…. especially falling San Diego housing prices.
The @WEF Board of Trustees is pretty grotesque.
Marc Benioff is the CEO of Salesforce.com, who apologized to the 7000 employees he just dejobbed, lamenting that he overhired during the pandemic.
Darth Powell 🦈🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇱🇫🇮 @GRomePow
I’m using this as a housing point of entry predictor. At 6% mortgage rates, that figure is $350k (red line), but I fully expect it to once again dip below the green or $300k. My original prediction was $225k-300k eventual national median price.
[Chart: Median House Payment Amount to Median Household Income (US Census)]
By rate or price
1:18 PM · Jan 15, 2023 · 945 Views
– 13 years of very easy (essentially free) $ from Fed monetary polices, including ZIRP and QE (U.S Treas. + MBS purch.) + insane gooberment fiscal stimulus.
– 1 year (so far) of somewhat tighter $ policies from the Fed. Feckless Congress continues w/ the latest $1.7T spending orgy. Gold is sniffing this out.
– Does anyone really expect some kind of magical “unicorns and rainbows” financial transformation to a “soft landing” after only one year (or ever), including housing and stonks, since they’re both part of “The Everything Bubble”?
– Bubbles always burst, and with “unpleasant” after effects.
Steve Saretsky @SteveSaretsky
Central bankers can’t be happy.
[Chart: Financial Conditions Ease – Bloomberg measure is looser than prior to March’s liftoff.]
2:49 PM · Jan 14, 2023 ·101.8K Views
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
Just as it turned 2023, we now have:
1. Meme stocks are back
2. Crypto markets are up
3. The stock market is up
4. Recession fears are going away
5. Reddit is squeezing hedge funds again
The market seems to have teleported back to 2021 for the week.
Retail is back on top.
9:19 PM · Jan 12, 2023 · 109.8K Views
– The Fed’s balance sheet has only been reduced by ~5.5% (~$0.5T/~9.0T).
– They know that they will crash the economy if it goes down too much or too fast. In my view the economy will crash no matter what they do, since asset bubbles always burst. They’re trying to let out only a little air at a time, but they’re just delaying the inevitable.
– The Fed didn’t prevent the previous two crashes of 1) the dot com stonks bubble bursting, and 2) housing bubble 1.0 bursting. It’s not different this time, but we now have (1) + (2), combined. This is fine /s.
– Interest rates have been rising, but still BELOW the official CPI inflation rate.
– The highy indebted real economy can’t handle much higher rates + interest payments on the national debt are starting to bite. The Fed created another financial debacle in the making. No good outcomes here.
– Lots of liquidity still floating around in the financial system. Not yet drained sufficiently. Employment (last shoe to drop) is still holding up due to a) remaining stimmy funds, plus b) gooberment welfare payments exceeding real economy wages (why work?).
– The Fed’s very visible hand and micro-mismanagement leads to serious financial “accidents.” Only free markets work, but we don’t have free markets or anything close to this. Centrally planned, command and control economies always fail.
– The next leg down of the stonk bear market is overdue, IMHO. The slow motion train wreck of the bursting of housing bubble 2.0 continues.
– The Fed’s “wealth effect” cuts both ways.
𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗼 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀, 𝗖𝗢 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗗𝗲𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻
𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘨𝘭𝘰𝘣𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 95% 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘵 𝘨𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘥. 𝘓𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘴 𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘪𝘳𝘵. 𝘐𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 $500 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘦, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘨𝘰𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘧𝘧.”
The £900million mega cruise ship saved from the scrapheap before its first voyage was bought by new owners Disney for a shockingly low knockdown price.
The ship was owned by Genting Hong Kong, but they filed for bankruptcy at the start of this year.
Just read that neither Schwab nor Soros will be attending the WEF summit in Davos. Schwab claims he has a “health issue”, while Soros says he has a schedule conflict.
Vox Day speculates: “It could be they caught word of the hypothetical Joint Winter Offensive starting next week. Or it could be the vaxx. Or it could be something else. Regardless, two of Clown World’s leading clowns skipping its annual grand circus is certainly unexpected.”
I’ll take a targeted stab — WEF was promoting FTX — with laud and links on its homepage. Now that sh!t storm stinks and the players are holding nose and backing off from the fetid stench.
Nothing to see here…move along….
Emotion-based decision-making strikes again. Let us know how that works out for ya, sweetie.
Denver bought one-way bus tickets for 1,900 migrants. Here’s where they were going.
They’re not migrants, they’re criminal invaders.
Build the wall, deport them ALL.
– Insert my shocked face here. /s
– Is the physical science and medicine finally catching up with political science and mainstream narratives?
– Gooberment and supporting alphabet soup agencies, are still telling me to get boosted, even though the CCP virus is now endemic and no longer a pandemic, and with low mortality for healthy individuals without co-morbidities, even and esp. the young.
– Experimental vaccines.
– It’s almost as if they really don’t like me…
– Trust. /s
American Heart Association Study Shows Link Between Covid Vaccines and Heart Inflammation
Circulating Spike Protein Detected in Post–COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Myocarditis
Lael M. Yonker, Zoe Swank, Yannic C. Bartsch, Madeleine D. Burns, Abigail Kane, Brittany P. Boribong, Jameson P. Davis, Maggie Loiselle, Tanya Novak, Yasmeen Senussi, Chi-An Cheng, … See all authors (et al.)
Originally published4 Jan 2023
Evidence that persistent circulating unbound full-length spike protein may be causative in post-vaccination myocarditis after mRNA injections stimulate cells throughout the body to produce the same.https://t.co/hQzeo1N8KA pic.twitter.com/5qUIHo8FZm
— David Bell (@bell00david) January 4, 2023
Covid vaccines are poison.
Realtors are liars
Well this is awkward…Democrat-Bolshevik mayors calling on the Brandon regime to “do something” about illegal immigration…when Biden’s globalist handlers are the ones responsible for open borders as part of their long-term plans to, shall we say, alter America’s demographics to achieve a permanent Democrat supermajority.
Banking in China doesn’t sound like much fun.
“‘[They] first beat [me] in the office,’ he said. ‘Then I was dragged to the bathroom by two police officers, who beat and kicked me and attacked my head, face, abdomen, and eyes.’ The man also showed the ABC a photo he said was taken afterward showing scars and bruises on his forehead.”
And I thought Wells Fargo, Chase and BofA s*cked!
I lived in the PRC for a period and deposited my monthly savings at a local bank. They always tried to lure me into the fancy section that included the wealth management products — those fancy high return products. The area included leather couches and fresh tea!
I avoided it. Half my local friends called me a fool. Half said banks are frauds.
Sadly, some of my earnings were lost in a tragic boating accident!
Now that a couple of months have passed since the FTX collapse, is everything good again in cryptoland?
Next Gen Investing
Mark Cuban predicts this will be the ‘next possible implosion’ in crypto—here’s how to avoid it
Published Thu, Jan 12 2023 2:22 PM EST
Billionaire Mark Cuban believes an age-old market manipulation tactic could be the next thing to rock the cryptocurrency industry.
“I think the next possible implosion is the discovery and removal of wash trades on central exchanges,” the longtime crypto investor tells TheStreet.
A wash trade is when a trader buys and sells the same financial asset multiple times in order to generate fake volume and make it appear as if there is a high demand for the asset. This artificially inflated demand can mislead other traders into investing real money into the asset.
Since higher demand typically leads to higher prices, traders can use this process as a type of “pump-and-dump” scheme: When the price is as high as the trader thinks it can go, they can cash out and leave other investors with the asset that’s declining in value.
Although wash trading has been illegal within traditional U.S. financial markets for decades, it’s likely difficult to crack down on the activity within the crypto space.
This is done ALL DAY LONG on the NYSE. The ignorance.
Hah! The thought of that possibility did cross my mind. How can you encourage knife catchers to step up without goosing prices?
What is wash trading, the fraudulent practice that some experts say accounts for 70% of transactions on crypto exchanges?
Jan 16, 2023, 5:15 AM
(Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
– Wash trading accounts for 70% of trades on some crypto exchanges, a study found.
– The practice of firms trading with themselves to boost prices artificially may lure inexperienced investors.
– Three experts dive into the practice and what it means for the crypto market.
Bitcoin rallies 25% as crypto markets rebound
By Allison Morrow, CNN
Published 10:36 AM EST, Mon January 16, 2023
New York CNN —
The bitcoin bulls are back.
After getting pummeled by losses for the better part of last year, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are rallying in 2023, prompting speculation that the so-called crypto winter — the digital asset world’s equivalent of a bear market — is over.
Bitcoin, the world’s most popular crypto, is up 25% over the past month, hovering above $20,000 for the first time since November, when the implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s trading platform FTX sent shock waves through the industry. Ethereum, the No. 2 crypto, is up more than 30% over the past month, trading above $1,500 on Monday.
“Wall Street is very confident that the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle is upon us and that is providing some underlying support for crypto,” wrote Ed Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda, on Friday. “Unless we hear some strong hawkish pushback from the Fed or if commodity prices surge, crypto traders should not be surprised if Bitcoin is able to extend its recent gains.”
Bitcoin peaked more than a year ago, in November 2021, just shy of $69,000. Two months ago, as FTX contagion gripped the digital asset market, bitcoin plummeted to a two-year low of $15,480.
While US stock and bond markets are closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, cryptocurrencies trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Crypto Crash: Why Is Crypto Down Today?
Published: Jan 16, 2023, 6:11pm
2022 has been a roller coaster ride for cryptocurrency markets. The market capitalization cryptocurrency market has slid from its peak of $3 trillion to nearly $800 billion, in just a span of one year. Most of the top-performing crypto coins have turned red and are witnessing double-digit losses. The crypto investors are on a major selling spree and sitting on tight positions, meaning a dip all around.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest currency, soared to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, then reached at the levels of $47,000 in January 2022, is now trading below $18,000, post FTX downfall. Similarly, Ethereum, which was at its record high of almost $4900 in November 2021, has now fallen to below the levels of $1300.
‘Ring was told that the seller ‘found out where the market believes the values to be and has elected not to sell’
That’s right seller, hold yer ground. Don’t give it away.
Wall Street writers in the MSM seem increasingly convinced the widely feared recession won’t happen. This sets up Mr Market for large losses in case the expert porcine beauticians prove mistaken.
Published January 16, 2023 2:53pm EST
Stock market legend issues ‘vicious and ferocious growling bear’ warning over US labor force
Peter Eliades says ‘very low’ unemployment is usually bearish for the market
By Kristen Altus FOXBusiness
Stockmarket Cycles publisher and editor Peter Eliades explains how ‘very low’ unemployment numbers are usually bearish for markets.
The last time stock market legend Peter Eliades spoke to FOX Business host Neil Cavuto, it was during the 2022 market’s “exact bottom,” just before a two-month rally.
While the Stockmarket Cycles publisher and editor was bullish then, he said on “Cavuto: Coast to Coast” Monday that he’s returning to his cage.
“I’m returning to my cage again,” Eliades told Cavuto. “I’m going to be called a vicious and ferocious growling bear.”
While the market expert claimed he’s “100% a cycle technician” when it comes to the market, there’s one fundamental number right now that’s “really” standing out: unemployment.
U.S. hiring cooled in December to the lowest pace in two years, but the labor market remained resilient in the face of higher interest rates, scorching-hot inflation and mounting recession fears.
Employers added 223,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, topping the 200,000 jobs forecast by Refinitiv economists. Still, it marks a slight deceleration from the downwardly revised gain of 256,000 in November and marks the worst month for job creation since December 2020. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.5%, a five-decade low.
“That’s one of the lowest readings in the last oh, gosh, 60 years. You just don’t get down to 3.5% that often,” Eliades said. “Except the problem is, it works exactly the way your instinct might tell you it would work: very low unemployment numbers are usually very bearish for the market.”
From the 1970s to 1990s, Eliades noted there was never an unemployment reading like December’s recent low. But when unemployment hit just below 4% in April 2000, “that was one of the great tops in market history. The NASDAQ went down 80, 90% from there, so this a huge bear market,” he said.
‘when unemployment hit just below 4% in April 2000, “that was one of the great tops in market history. The NASDAQ went down 80, 90% from there, so this a huge bear market’
Just before this the dotbomb I worked for hired two bike delivery guys to do flash.
Wild Bed Bath & Beyond stock moves expose a larger problem with investing
Mon, January 16, 2023 at 9:40 AM PST·2 min read
In this article:
For vocal Bed Bath & Beyond bear Anthony Chukumba, the recent gyrations in Bed Bath & Beyond’s stock — despite the retailer being on the brink of bankruptcy — underscore the need for people to boost their financial literacy.
“It is a living, breathing example of the need for financial literacy education in the United States,” the Loop Capital analyst said on Yahoo Finance Live. “I mean, Bed Bath & Beyond is going to go bankrupt.”
Bed Bath & Beyond finished Friday’s session down 30% in another day of volatile trading for the meme crowd favorite. On the week, shares surged an eye-popping 179%.
The wild upward price action occurred after Bed Bath & Beyond didn’t utter the world “bankruptcy” on its otherwise brutal Tuesday morning earnings release. The lack of a bankruptcy announcement seemed to embolden bulls in the stock, causing bears — specifically short-sellers — to quickly cover their shorts, only creating more upward momentum in the stock.
Then, on Friday, the New York Times reported that retail-focused private equity shop Sycamore Partners was kicking the tires on buying parts of the near-death home goods seller.
“As is our practice, we do not comment on speculation of this nature,” a Bed Bath & Beyond spokesperson told Yahoo Finance via email.
Why stop at $5 million? Why not $10 million? $50 million?
Will non-Black people whose ancestors did not live in the US during the slave era be exempt from helping to come up with the payments?
Will non-black people who risked or shed their lives to end slavery, and their descendants, be pardoned?
How would one be low income if you just got a free 5M dollars ?? Wacky world
“The plan also calls on the city to supplement lower-income recipients’ income to reflect the Area Median Income (AMI), about $97,000, annually for at least 250 years. “
Gotta love politicians who make promises that are impossible to keep.
Indeed. The republicans will be blamed for not endorsing and upholding these reparations, and the angry beneficiaries are ready to go out a break windows and loot. And it didn’t cost the democrats anything to stir the resentment pot.
$5 million? How many white people, with all their “privilege” and “generational wealth” have $5 million?
Anybody thinking about leaving California?
‘Ring says his offers on properties have come down substantially, as his company believes values are down around 15%. ‘That’s a direct result of interest rates,’ Ring said. ‘We’re also not winning anything, so maybe we’ve overcorrected’
AKA catching a falling knife.
This doesn’t happen every day, but nothing in Denver surprises anybody anymore. Teakers gonna tweak.
Denver7 Prize pigs stolen from teen boys in Denver for National Western Stock Show (1/16/2023):
“They were going to be shown at the National Western Stock Show tomorrow and Wednesday,” Myles said. “We had high hopes for them both.”
But when they arrived in Denver over the weekend, things didn’t go quite as planned.
“Parked right in front of the hotel, under lights thinking we were doing all the right things,” said Tanya Lee, Myles and Chance’s mother. “And went out the next morning to find the truck, trailer, the pigs — all of our equipment, gear — everything gone.”
Their truck and trailer, with the pigs inside, were stolen from the Comfort Inn and Suites on Tower Road near Denver International Airport.
They’ve already been roasted on a spit at one of the hundreds of homeless camps full of junkies and tweakers.
While things are not as bad in Larimer County, crime is way up here too.
I saw this headline in the Dumver Post:
Which means that it currently isn’t a felony to steal a car in Dumver.
More local news. This is what happens when your District Attorney was purchased by George Soros.
KDVR — Safety concerns raised for convention center visitors (1/13/2023):
“Meteorologists from around the country attended meetings in Denver this week. Some said they didn’t feel safe while they were here.
Some attendees said they came here to learn and enjoy the city. But that was not the case, as they headed out onto streets around the convention center. Several AMS members expressed concerns.
Katie Nickolaou of Michigan tweeted, “I did not feel safe walking around Denver,” and that several members were “verbally harassed” as they walked to their hotels.
The “convention corridor” runs from Glenarm Place to Champa Street and 15th to 17th streets. It has been the focus of an intense effort to reduce crime.
City leaders have admitted crime was a problem in the heart of the city. So bad those leaders said some large conventions were choosing not to come here.
See also: San Francisco.
It wasn’t that long ago that the 16th St Mall was a relatively safe place to go, a common destination for conventioneers taking a break and grabbing a bite to eat.
Funkadelic — Hit It And Quit It:
Parliament — Breakdown:
Marvin Gaye — Time To Get It Together:
I canvassed 4 goobers in the housing sales/appraisal/inspection/mortgage biz across new england….. reports are housing is dead dead dead…. and dead.
Has China’s economy recovered from its pandemic woes?
The Financial Times
China’s economy expands 3% in 2022 as zero-Covid policies hit growth
Gross domestic product misses annual target but expectations rise for recovery in 2023
Women wearing masks take photos at a shopping alley in Beijing
Economists expect China’s growth to rebound this year compared with 2022, but policymakers face a host of challenges including Covid, a property crisis and declining export demand
Thomas Hale in Shanghai and Sun Yu in Beijing 9 minutes ago
China’s economy grew by just 3 per cent in 2022, underscoring the heavy costs of the government’s longstanding zero-Covid strategy before it was abruptly abandoned last month.
The country’s gross domestic product figures missed Beijing’s official growth target, which at 5.5 per cent was already the lowest in decades. Other than in 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic, when full-year GDP expanded 2.2 per cent, growth was the weakest since 1976.
Although China’s economy is expected to recover this year as it reopens to the world, Tuesday’s data highlighted the scale of the challenge that President Xi Jinping faces after growth was subordinated to a vast anti-pandemic policy apparatus for three years.
In the fourth quarter, GDP was flat compared with the third quarter and rose 2.9 per cent year on year, higher than analyst expectations of a 1.6 per cent increase. Late last year, the government tightened Covid-19 restrictions in response to multiple urban outbreaks before suddenly easing them, allowing the virus to sweep across the population uninhibited for the first time.
Economists expect growth to rebound this year compared with 2022, but policymakers face a host of challenges including Covid, a property crisis that has dragged home prices lower, a slump in exports as the global economy slows and China’s first population decline in 60 years.
The Financial Times
China’s population falls for first time in decades
Decline set to have long-term consequences for domestic and global economies
An elderly person holds a child near lanterns decorating a shop in Beijing
Analysts say that China’s social welfare and medical infrastructure is ill-prepared for an ageing population
Eleanor Olcott in Hong Kong and Sun Yu in Beijing an hour ago
China’s population fell last year for the first time in decades, a historic shift that is expected to have long-term consequences for the domestic and global economies.
The world’s most populous country has long been a crucial source of labour and consumption, fuelling growth in China and the world.
On Tuesday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China’s total population fell by 850,000 in 2022 to 1.41175bn, the first decline in 60 years.
“This is a truly historic turning point, an onset of a long-term and irreversible population decline,” said Wang Feng, an expert on Chinese demographic change at the University of California, Irvine.
The decline officially began last year, with deaths outstripping births, but some demographers argue that the trend likely started before then.
Fuxian Yi, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, estimated that China’s population started to fall in 2018, but the drop was obscured by “faulty demographic data”.
“China is facing a demographic crisis that far exceeds the imagination of Chinese authorities and the international community,” said Yi, noting that the trend will act as a long-term drag on the country’s property market, a crucial engine of growth.
“Abundant labour has been the fuel that has driven China’s rapid growth for more than four decades,” said Yi, “and now China is flying at high speed without enough fuel.”
2 minute read
December 2, 2022 4:47 AM PST
Last Updated a month ago
Evergrande’s EV unit suspends mass production due to lack of orders – sources
Auto Shanghai show in Shanghai
SHANGHAI, Dec 2 (Reuters) – China Evergrande Group’s electric vehicle unit has suspended mass production of its only model due to a lack of new orders, two people with knowledge of the matter said, in the latest set of troubles facing the indebted property developer.
China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group (0708.HK) said in mid-September that it had started mass production of the Hengchi 5 model at a plant in the northern city of Tianjin and in late October said it had delivered its first 100 cars.
China Evergrande Group founder Hui Kayan asked his employees to work towards setting the company on the right track once again. Photo: Getty Images
China Evergrande crisis: founder Hui Ka-yan vows to repay debt and ‘start new chapter on survival’
– Evergrande founder Hui Ka-yan has pledged to repay creditors and deliver projects this year in a letter to the company’s employees
– He says the company can fulfil its mission of repaying debt and ‘start a new chapter on survival’ if they work together
China Evergrande Group
Published: 6:45pm, 3 Jan, 2023
Updated: 5:01pm, 4 Jan, 2023
Hui Ka-yan, the founder of China Evergrande Group, has pledged to repay creditors and deliver projects this year in a letter to the company’s employees. The promise comes after the stricken developer once again missed a self-imposed year-end deadline on releasing its restructuring plan.
“2023 is a crucial year for Evergrande Group to fulfil its duty as an enterprise and deliver projects in every possible way,” Hui said in the new year message late on Sunday, which was seen by the Post.
“I believe we can complete our mission of delivery, repay various debts, eliminate the risks, and start a new chapter on survival, as long as all of us work together and never give up on resuming our construction, sales, as well as operations,” he added.
Many details, including the sales and delivery targets for this year, were not disclosed.
The developer, weighed under 1.97 trillion yuan (US$286 billion) of liabilities, had previously postponed releasing a similar preliminary restructuring plan as promised in July.
We don’t need no stinkin’ financials.
2 minute read
January 16, 2023 6:30 PM PST
Last Updated an hour ago
China Evergrande’s auditor PwC quits over 2021 audit-related matters
A woman walks in front of the China Evergrande Centre building sign in Hong Kong
Jan 16 (Reuters) – Embattled property developer China Evergrande (3333.HK) said on Monday that its auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), had resigned amid disagreements over matters relating to the audit of its 2021 accounts.
The issues included the timeline and scope of work involved in assessing the company’s going concern basis as well as additional audit work and procedures required for the assets impairment assessment, Evergrande said in a statement.
Once China’s top-selling developer, Evergrande is now at the centre of the country’s property crisis. Its $22.7 billion of offshore debt, including loans and private bonds, is deemed to be in default after it missed payments late last year.
More than a dozen auditors of Hong Kong-listed Chinese property firms parted ways last year, raising governance concerns about the debt-ridden developers, several of whom are yet to publish long-pending financial results.
The Financial Times
Updated 29 minutes ago
Live news: PwC quits as auditor of Evergrande after financial statement dispute
A housing complex developed by Evergrande in Huaian, Jiangsu province
29 minutes ago
Cheng Leng in Hong Kong and Thomas Hale in Shanghai
Indebted Chinese property developer Evergrande said on Tuesday that global accounting firm PwC had resigned as its auditor, owing to diverging views on the firm’s 2021 financial statements.
The resignation letter was sent to the company’s board on Monday, Evergrande said in an exchange filing, which could complicate its recent negotiations with investors for updated terms in restructuring proposals.
Evergrande, which has $300bn in liabilities, including about $20bn owed to international investors, has repeatedly missed deadlines to provide a restructuring plan. The company has been meeting investors since last week in Hong Kong to update them on its progress.
Disagreements between the accounting firm and Evergrande include the timetable and the scope of work in respect of the assessment on Evergrande’s “going concern basis and implications of the relevant disclosure”, it said.
Specifically, PwC noted that Evergrande didn’t settle certain loans and other interest-bearing liabilities due by the agreed date, adding it was not provided with details on the investigation conducted by an independent committee on the undisclosed deposit pledge related to company’s electric vehicle unit Evergrande New Energy Vehicle.
China records 1st population fall in decades as births drop
Mon, January 16, 2023 at 6:40 PM PST·4 min read
BEIJING (AP) — China has announced its first population decline in decades as what has been the world’s most populous nation ages and its birthrate plunges.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported Tuesday that the country had 850,000 fewer people at the end of 2022 than the previous year. The tally includes only the population of mainland China, excluding Hong Kong and Macao as well as foreign residents.
That left a total of 1.41 billion people, with 9.56 million births against 10.41 million deaths, the bureau said at a briefing on Tuesday.
Men outnumbered women by 722.06 million to 689.69 million, a result of the strict one-child policy that only officially ended in 2016 and a traditional preference for male offspring to carry on the family name.
Since abandoning the policy, China has sought to encourage families to have second or even third children, with little success, reflecting attitudes in much of east Asia where birth rates have fallen precipitously. In China, the expense of raising children in cities is often cited as a cause.
China has long been the world’s most populous nation, but is expected to soon be overtaken by India, if it has not already. Estimates put India’s population at more than 1.4 billion and continuing to grow.
The last time China is believed to have recorded a population decline was during the Great Leap Forward launched at the end of the 1950s, under then-leader Mao Zedong’s disastrous drive for collective farming and industrialization that produced a massive famine killing tens of millions of people.
Are rents in your area falling?
Rents drop as demand declines, report shows
The anticipated slowdown in multifamily performance arrived last month, as rents drop and the sector clocked its lowest year-over-year growth since mid-2021, according to the latest Yardi Matrix National Multifamily Report.
U.S. asking rents fell $9 during the month to $1,719, while year-over-year growth dropped to seven percent, the lowest level in 17 months. The decreases are attributed to economic headwinds and deteriorating demand. The $9 rollback was the largest one-month decline in rents in over a decade.
No serious updates on Russell Gage this morning. 🙁
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