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It Was Quite Irresponsible For The Bank To Lend Us This Much, And They Would Have Lent Us More

A report from Yahoo Finance. “Around 42% of homes sold in the final three months of 2022 included some kind of concession from the seller, Redfin data found. A separate study found that 13.6% of sellers also slashed their listing price to attract buyers. Fortunately, price reductions are becoming more and more common – and asking for a price cut isn’t frowned upon. In fact, some agents are encouraging it. ‘Instead of waiting for listing prices to drop, buyers are actually submitting offers with big discounts and making the seller make a decision and that seems to be working,’ said John Downs, senior vice president at Vellum Mortgage, noting that there’s been an uptick in price reductions in the Washington, DC area.”

The Augusta Free Press. “Home buyers are seeing more options as the housing market cools in Virginia. ‘Sales activity in the Commonwealth’s housing market has been cooling for 13 consecutive months now. This is largely due to mortgage rates doubling over the past year, causing many to delay their home search,’ Virginia REALTORS® Chief Economist Ryan Price said. ‘We’ve been seeing fewer new sales contracts each month. Homes are taking longer to sell, and sellers, on average, are not getting their asking price.'”

The Chicago Tribune. “The Illinois housing market is continuing its correction to where it was before the pandemic. Prices and sales are now lower than they were at this time last year, with another drop in December, according to Illinois Realtors. Chicago median home sale prices in 2022 remained the same as the prior year at $335,000, according to Illinois Realtors. But in December, prices were down 8.1% compared with the same month in 2021.”

The Miami Herald. “Home sales in Miami-Dade County plummeted in 2022 compared to the prior year, the strongest indication the frenetic homebuying spree that defined South Florida during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic finally has ended. Buyers and sellers are on different wavelengths here and in many parts of the United States, said Mariya Letdin, a business professor at Florida State University. The high prices and annual slowdown in sales volume exemplify their disconnect.”

“‘If a seller is patient, they will not transact at prices that fall below their expectations. If sellers see the reality doesn’t match expectations, they will wait,’ Letdin said, noting that the higher median prices in South Florida are the result of ‘sellers refusing to list at lower prices. … They can do that for a few months, before reality sinks in.'”

Community Impact in Texas. “In December 2022, home sales in the Central Austin region decreased over 54% year over year, according to ABoR data. The median sales price in Central Austin decreased almost 10% year over year, with the median home price at $647,500 in December 2022 compared to $749,500 in December 2021, according to ABoR data. The median sales price in the city of Austin dipped 4.5% to $525,250 in December 2022. ‘Even with the inventory gains made in 2022, our region still needs more housing,’ ABoR President Ashley Jackson said. ‘This need could be exacerbated as builders and developers continue to recover after overextending themselves nationally, and increasing interest rates lessen people’s buying power.'”

The Columbian in Washington. “The median sale price for residential homes in Clark County continued falling last month, dropping from $514,000 in November to $479,900 in December, according to the most recent Regional Multiple Listing Service report. Living Room Realty broker Scott Cotrell thinks it makes sense to buy now. ‘If they buy now, regardless of what they can afford, it’s always going to be better than renting because rent tends to always go up,’ Cotrell said. ‘If you lock in a mortgage rate, it’s locked in for that life of the loan, and you know how much your expenses are going to be.'”

From Market Watch. “Prices of homes sold fell on a year-over-year basis in 18 of the 50 most populous metro areas in the U.S., with San Francisco leading the way. In San Francisco, selling prices were down 10.1% from a year earlier, Redfin said. That sale-price decline was followed by that of nearby San Jose, Calif., where prices fell by 6.7%. Austin, Texas, saw home-sale prices drop by 5.5%, and Detroit by 4.3%. Phoenix, a boomtown earlier in the pandemic, saw home-sale prices fall by 3.7%. The monthly payment for a median-priced home is $2,262, Redfin said. Monthly mortgage payments are up 30% from a year ago.”

The Deep Dive in Canada. “Private mortgage lenders in the GTA are beginning to feel the heat of rising interest rates. So much so, in fact, that borrowers with private mortgages who cannot keep up with their payments are being forced to sell their homes— a legal term referred to as the Power of Sale process. According to Toronto mortgage broker Ron Butler, most of these cases involve Mortgage Investment Corporations (MICs), which compile funds from investors and lend it to real estate borrowers. However given that interest rates rose from near-zero to 4.25% in less than a year, some of these lenders are beginning to panic.”

“‘The combination of that and the drop in house values in Ontario has motivated many of the private lender organizations, or simply individuals who do private lending, to say, ‘I gotta call in the mortgage’, added Butler. He explains that the majority of such mortgages have a duration of one year, and if the lender is unable to pay the full balance on the loan on the renewal date, ‘they’re just simply saying, ‘well we have to get the money back, so we’re going to put you into power of sale.’ Likewise, homeowners who hold a mortgage from a ‘B lender’ are also facing a crisis if they’re up for renewal, as they already face higher interest rates to begin with since they didn’t qualify for mortgages from major banks. In such instances, ‘the increase in payment was so substantial as to become almost unmanageable,’ Butler added.”

The Guardian. “In the summer of 2020, when British society emerged from months of Covid lockdown, the UK housing market reopened and began booming. Fast forward to today and the situation has changed dramatically: in December the average UK house price fell for the fourth month in a row, with experts expecting a further slowdown in a struggling economy. Bank of England policymakers have raised interest rates nine times in the past year and are forecast to do so again when they next meet. Borrowers re-fixing their mortgages are among those hit hardest in the cost of living crisis.”

“Claire and her husband James upsized from their three-bedroom mid-terrace former council house in central Hertfordshire to a £600,000 five-bed in a Cambridgeshire town in spring 2021, in the belief that mortgage rates would remain low. ‘We stretched our budget to move to our dream house. Monthly payments have just increased by £370, after we rushed to re-fix for five years at just under 4% in November,’ Claire says.”

“The couple, who have two children, have a household income of just over £60,000, and do not qualify for any government help apart from the £400 energy grant. Every time they talk about it ‘it becomes a bit less of a joke,’ says James, a middle manager in a tech company who currently works mostly from home. He also fears being asked to return full-time to the office. ‘If I would have to do the 80-minute one-way commute to work in Hertfordshire again, just the fuel costs would blow us financially out of the water. When we bought, it was inconceivable to me that interest rates would be going up this much. I’m not sure we’d be able to weather another big financial change. Retrospectively, I feel it was quite irresponsible for the bank to lend us this much, and I know they would have lent us more.'”

“Barbara and her husband, John, decided that their three-bedroom house was becoming ‘claustrophobic,’ and upsized to a period property twice the size in central Plymouth. ‘We came to the awful conclusion that the only way to avoid financially struggling in future was to sell our home before we got into trouble.’ Barbara and John put their home on the market last month, and have already had to reduce the price. ‘We are likely now to make a loss upon sale. We are so angry and upset with the government that we have ended up here.'”

From The Local. “It’s an usual situation in the German housing market. For years, property prices only ever went in one direction: upwards. According to the latest survey from property portal ImmoScout24, asking prices, have fallen by as much as ten percent in some areas of the country.”

“‘The last few months have been characterized by a phase of waiting and speculation on falling prices,’ said Dr. Gesa Crockford, Managing Director of ImmoScout24. ‘In the current situation of excess supply, prospective buyers have the momentum on their side. The fact that prices are now falling shows that the market is working.'”

“Over the course of five years average prices for houses and flats have gone up by an astounding 63 percent. The price hikes have been particularly dramatic in metropolitan areas like Munich, Frankfurt and Berlin – but even these high-demand areas don’t appear to be immune from the current downwards trend.”

“Out of Germany’s metropoles, Hamburg saw the biggest price correction over this period, with the price of existing houses and flats dropping by 8.5 percent and 6.2 percent respectively. The drop in asking prices also reflects a more longer term trend, with the price of housing falling year-on-year in all sectors in Hamburg – especially in the case of new-build flats, which fell by 8.8 percent.”

“Berlin also saw a drop in asking prices towards the end of the year, with new-build flats going down by 6.6 percent and existing flats dropping by 5.3 percent. Munich, which often tops the charts as the most expensive city in Germany, saw the biggest decline in new-build houses between the third and fourth quarter. These dropped by seven percent to an average asking price of €10,153 per square meter, while existing houses fell by 3.8 percent to €8,535 per square metre on average. For people looking for a flat in the Bavarian capital, both new-builds and existing properties fell by more than four percent in the fourth quarter.”

“The steepest drop of all, however, was in the North Rhine-Westphalian capital of Düsseldorf, where the asking price for existing houses dropped by an average of 10.3 percent at the end of the year.”

Stuff New Zealand. “Data from CoreLogic identified the properties that had changed ownership most often in the last decade. It pinpointed six properties, all in the south of Auckland, that have been sold seven times since the start of 2013. One on Roscommon Rd in Clendon Park, sold for $345,000 in 2014, $505,000 in 2017, $456,521 in 2019, then $520,000 four days later, and $590,000 in 2020. Another, on Massey Road in Mangere, sold for $621,000 in 2014, $661,000 in 2015, $800,000 in 2016, $870,000 in 2017, $900,000 in July 2020, $995,000 in November 2020 and $1.37 million in April 2021.”

“One on Kayes Road, in Pukekohe increased in price over the years from $275,000 in 2014 to $970,000 in 2021. For those who lost money when they sold, the median time they had owned the property was 1.3 years. Auckland had a 2.8-year median hold period for loss-making sales, Hamilton one year, Wellington and Tauranga 1.3 years and Christchurch 2.3. ‘Unexpected increases in costs – most likely through mortgage rate increases – could force investors to sell because they don’t have the cashflow to service the mortgage or they want to cut their losses,’ Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said.”

“He said rapid house prices rises would no longer be a driver for sales activity and there were other factors that could dampen quick buy-and-sell activity. ‘The downward pressure on prices and reduced numbers of buyers in the market are also likely to make people wary of undertaking renovations and not being able to make a profit or even get their money back.'”

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This Post Has 172 Comments

  1. ‘Fortunately, price reductions are becoming more and more common – and asking for a price cut isn’t frowned upon. In fact, some agents are encouraging it. ‘Instead of waiting for listing prices to drop, buyers are actually submitting offers with big discounts and making the seller make a decision and that seems to be working’

    That’s the spirit!

  2. ‘This need could be exacerbated as builders and developers continue to recover after overextending themselves nationally’

    Over wa?

    ‘it makes sense to buy now. ‘If they buy now, regardless of what they can afford’

    Sound lending!

  3. ‘If a seller is patient, they will not transact at prices that fall below their expectations. If sellers see the reality doesn’t match expectations, they will wait’

    That’s right sellers, hold yer ground, don’t…

    ‘the higher median prices in South Florida are the result of ‘sellers refusing to list at lower prices. … They can do that for a few months, before reality sinks in’

    See, yer giving it away.

    1. A considerate seller won’t ruin the neighborhood’s comps, but on the other hand there’s the Tragedy of the Commons…

  4. ‘When we bought, it was inconceivable to me that interest rates would be going up this much. I’m not sure we’d be able to weather another big financial change. Retrospectively, I feel it was quite irresponsible for the bank to lend us this much, and I know they would have lent us more’

    It’s back!!

    1. ‘a serious case of myocarditis’

      I don’t think there is a mild case. Well buckle in, it’s for life!

    2. I had major side effects from my second booster shot.

      I heard a third booster will kind of round it out, make you feel like a million bucks again.

      1. “I heard a third booster…”

        I’ve had three boosters in addition to the first two Pfizer doses, and I still wake up with the occasional pup tent, so no worries.

        1. That’s OK. Gotta admit, I’m liking Elon more and more especially now that he tried to be in the J&J club. I can’t find the tweet where Elon states he had a J&J but then had to get mRNA boosters, but I’m pretty sure I read that.

          1. then had to get mRNA boosters

            He didn’t “have to” get the boosters. He chose to. Was it a near death experience that woke him up? What’s to admire?

          2. IIRC, in a tweet (somewhere), Elon said he had to get the boosters in order to visit a Tesla facility in Germany. J&J is not accepted in Europe and Astra-Zeneca was not accepted in the US, so I believe Elon was forced into an mRNA vaccine to travel internationally. Plus he’s over 50, so he needed the boosters to be “up to date.”

            BTW I’m not up to date either; technically I would need an mRNA to be up to date. Luckily, it appears that CDC isn’t considering any further mandates.

          4. He didn’t “have to” get the boosters.

            Agreed. He didn’t have to go in person to Europe to oversee his new factory. The fool actually believed the “100% safe and effective” BS.

            IIRC, he recently said that if he winds up in Hell that he’s OK with that. So I’m thinking that his remark was flippant, as he is an atheist. But, if you believe Hell is real, wouldn’t you do everything you can to stay out of it? Then again, Satan, who is supposed to be smarter than any human, chose Hell.

        1. Serial liar

          https://twitter.com/Factschaser/status/1615130654307672064:

          Biggest fibs Musk peddled to sell Teslas, boost $TSLA stock, his wealth:

          1. Range (is actually 20%-70% less depending on conditions)
          2. 1 million “Robotaxis” by end of 2020
          3. “FSD” / Autopilot are safer than human drivers
          4. Teslas are appreciating assets due to “self driving”

          [2] Biggest fibs Musk peddled to sell Teslas, boost $TSLA stock, his wealth:

          5. Semi in production by 2019
          6. Cybertruck in mass production by 2021
          7. Tesla is working on a mini-EV (per a 2018 tweet)
          8. Tesla Vision will replace ultrasonic sensors (3 months later, NOPE)

          [3] Biggest fibs Musk peddled to sell Teslas, boost $TSLA stock, his wealth:

          9. Tesla will mass produce 4680 batteries by 2021
          10. “Funding secured” to take Tesla private, which earned him an SEC fraud charge + fine, forced him to step down as Chairman

          [4] Biggest fibs Musk peddled to sell Teslas, boost $TSLA stock, his wealth:

          Bonus: “Tesla could become more valuable than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined” — claim he made in October 2020, when Tesla’s market cap was $695 billion. It has since fallen to $380 billion.

  7. A reader sent these in:

    Off the Recent Lows
    Iron Ore +48%
    Silver +38%
    Copper +35%
    Uranium +32%
    Aluminum +25%
    Corn +20%
    Gold +19%
    Sugar +14%
    Oil +16%
    Coal +8%
    Wheat +2%
    *On Oct 21, 2022 – the Fed softened the path forward with a leak to the WSJ, this is how you nearly guarantee sustained inflation.

    https://twitter.com/Convertbond/status/1616746366264397826

    Lol. Why would anyone stay in an AIRBNB over a hotel? No wonder these places are empty. This won’t end well.

    https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1616790099102158854

    Redfin

    Amid a much cooler housing market than last January, just 21% of homes sold above list price. That’s down from 40% a year earlier and the lowest level since March 2020 👉

    https://twitter.com/Redfin/status/1616843148549824515

    Markets are used to the Put, it wont go quietly. The Fed LOVES the pushback. Keeps the frog boiling SLOWLY. The death of the put isn’t an event, it is a process. It will take years, just like the balance sheet. The 2 issues are fractal in any event.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1616813177098080257

    After 2 years of big tech workers posting about having multiple jobs or only working 4 hrs/week since covid, it shouldn’t be surprising to see 50k+ getting laid off. Elon cutting 70% of Twitter workforce with basically zero disruption in service didn’t help their cause 😂

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1616827056280539136

    The Fed holdings of US Treasury notes and bonds just fell by the largest amount in history. Over $41 billion just in the last 2 weeks.

    https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1615112272048967681

    The “housing shortage” lol

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1616694127168720896

    A tremendous credit boom took place in 2022, and it may not even be ending. This post reviews the boom, suggests it is due to the strong financial positions of banks and households, and notes that it will be very supportive of demand in the coming year.

    https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1612484233154691073

    I agree it is obvious nonsense, but I think he believes it. My mental model for Fed officials is well meaning people who are not very good at what they do.

    https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1616818283495428099

    Home Sale volume slides. LOWEST DECLINE EVER. Update: annual volume declines more than 2008. This is massive…

    https://twitter.com/mikebolen/status/1616508160675614736

    400k has been wiped away from this Mattamy, Joshua Greek Oakville Townhouse project. 👇👇👇 Good luck to buyers who bought them last year! I added previous price to the latest selling price.

    https://twitter.com/himansh36013599/status/1616561420467949589

    Oh you sneaky, Airbnb, raising the host service fee to 16% without a sound on hosts who shoulder the whole fee.

    https://twitter.com/tyannmarcink/status/1616800206389116933

    First chart is a home from an area that boomed near me during the housing run up, the second is $TSLA

    https://twitter.com/leveragedegen/status/1616860460120248320

    Reuters Business

    U.S. existing home sales plunged to a 12-year low in December, marking the 11th straight monthly decline, the longest stretch since 1999.

    https://twitter.com/ReutersBiz/status/1616646896717545473

    “I lost 20% on my stocks, everyone says recession, supermarket prices are sky high, I heard Amazon fired people and my mortgage broker says best they can do is 6.25%. Now house prices in my neighborhood are down 5-10% from a stupid high. I’m ready to buy!”

    That’s unrealistic.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1616614179347075072

    We got quoted $30-50k for insurance premium for a Florida property yesterday. Triple what it would cost 2-3 years ago. Our broker said some owners are canceling their INS and just taking the risk. WTF?!

    https://twitter.com/FrankScapp/status/1616407618997608456

    2008: California will have a high-speed rail from Los Angeles to San Francisco by 2020 at a cost of $30 billion. 2023: California will have a train from Bakersfield to Merced hopefully by 2030 at a cost of no less than $170 billion.

    https://twitter.com/TheKevinDalton/status/1616555865032753152

    This is bad for financial sector, but also for the economy. Economy goes down with banks

    https://twitter.com/MenthorQpro/status/1616919937213145088

    Atlanda FED’s median wage growth tracker as of December 2022

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1616863338407034881

    This chart from Bank of America on the U.S savings rate is astounding. Excluding a very brief period in 2005, savings rates are at their lowest level since the Great Depression.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1616934173444571138

    Existing homes sales collapsed, but prices haven’t. Unlike 2006-10, sellers aren’t being forced to sell. Not yet. Investment funds that loaded up in ’20 are sweating this out; if prices start to go lower and look like they’re going to keep going then everyone heads for the exit.

    https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP/status/1616646910827167745

    Home sellers are just waiting to sell so collapse in home buyers isn’t impacting home prices as much as fifteen years ago even though resales in Dec ’22 were barely better than the worst month in the pandemic. Fewest since 2010. Prices go way down when sellers start to show up.

    https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP/status/1616647507722772482

    In 2022, an estimated 420,000 new rental apartments were built in the United States, the highest amount for new multifamily construction in a half-century, according to the latest data from RentCafe, an apartment search platform.

    https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara/status/1616898882491011072

    They want you to believe their is SO much of a housing shortage that THIS is completely logical and expected and legitimate.

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1616938994360541184

    TUCKER: Let’s check in on our lizard overlords in Davos, Switzerland.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1616969696376680450

    1/6 Without peaking at my next tweet…What percentage of US owner-occupied homes are owned free and clear?

    2/6 Did you guess anything close to 39%? Of course you didn’t.
    “Everyone locked in 3% mortgages when rates were low, so nobody will be selling their place because they don’t want a new mortgage at 6.15%. It’s a stalemate between buyers and sellers.”
    Wrong.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1616910208768385026

    4/6 Sure, many don’t want to sell. But if they’re broke, if Social Security isn’t doing it — and if selling the family house was always the plan — how long are they going to wait, paying those property taxes, HOA and air conditioning bills in a Social Security situation?

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1616910212082065408

    5/6 Who buys their 3-bedroom or 4-bedroom house? The family with kids, theoretically. But they’re 30-50 years old, also broke, and they ARE locked in at 3% on the current house. Double the mortgage payment to have one more bedroom. “Sorry kids, bunk beds.”

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1616910213335994371

    Lance Lambert

    Markets above pre-pandemic inventory levels, by month in 2022:
    April: 2
    May: 3
    June: 6
    July: 12
    August: 24
    September: 20
    October: 29
    November: 36
    December: 39

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1616928771969351686

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Economic update:
    1. Average car payment at record $800/month
    2. Home sales down 18% in 2022
    3. Overdue auto loans up 27% this year
    4. Credit card debt up 15% in 2022, biggest jump since 2008
    5. 33% of U.S. using credit cards for daily expenses
    The economy is slowing down.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1616900874810396674

    Translation: Don’t you dare bid $SPX over 4200
    Quote Tweet
    WALLER: IF LOOSENING FINANCIAL CONDITIONS MEANS INFLATION TAKES OFF AGAIN WILL REQUIRE US TO DO A LOT MORE

    https://twitter.com/TraderPamplona/status/1616503295660400640

    CarDealershipGuy

    Auto loan rates have reached a new 20-year high 😬 Mississippi leads the nation with a staggering average rate of 12.28% on Used cars. Vermont has the lowest average rate at 8.1%.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1616921015161856000

    1. “Who buys their 3-bedroom or 4-bedroom house? The family with kids, theoretically. But they’re 30-50 years old, also broke, and they ARE locked in at 3% on the current house. Double the mortgage payment to have one more bedroom. “Sorry kids, bunk beds.””

      Should say “Who buys their house AT THESE PRICES?” Almost no one. But at the prices in about 24 months’ time? Plenty of people will buy the next house and mail the keys for the first house, just like in 2010.

      1. “Plenty of people will buy the next house and mail the keys for the first house, just like in 2010.”

        There should be a law against this.

      2. ‘Should say “Who buys their house AT THESE PRICES?”‘

        My 3bdr in Peoria is “worth” $1.5 mil, now all I need to do is find one of these hipsters on food stamps and tell them to cut back on the avocado toast so they can hand over the suitcase full of money. Easy!

      3. As a noted economist stated so eloquently, I can ask $50k for my run down 10 year old chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that price? So it is with rapidly depreciating assets like houses and cars.”

        He’s right.

        Tyler, TX Housing Prices Crater 32% YOY As Bankrupt Bitter Borrowers Bail On Housing Across The US

        https://www.movoto.com/tyler-tx/market-trends/

    2. Why would anyone stay in an AIRBNB over a hotel?

      The only reason is if it’s a lot cheaper than staying in a hotel.

    3. Lol. Why would anyone stay in an AIRBNB over a hotel? No wonder these places are empty. This won’t end well.

      The pool takes up the whole backyard!

      1. The pool takes up the whole backyard!

        That place is a dump. It looks like a 3/2 track house in the ghetto of Mesa, AZ.

        3. *tract house

          Which is what I thought I typed. Having built many of them going back to the late 1980s, it’s a comical error.

    4. WALLER: IF LOOSENING FINANCIAL CONDITIONS MEANS INFLATION TAKES OFF AGAIN WILL REQUIRE US TO DO A LOT MORE

      You see what’s going on here? This central banker is acknowledging that financial conditions are actually loosening in the face of the highest inflation in nearly 50 years. He knows you can’t reduce inflation in a loose credit environment, that the opposite is what will occur – even higher inflation. Yet, instead of tightening more, they are actually reducing their rate hikes.

        1. Yes. I should have worded it better. Instead of saying “instead of tightening more,” I should have said “instead of continuing to tighten quickly.”

          1. They are exercising caution in driving while looking out the rear view mirror, trying their best to contain inflation without crashing the economy.

            I did a data analysis a couple of decades ago for a time series course assignment where I looked at the time lag between monetary policy changes and stock market movements. The strongest (negative) correlation was at a lag of nine months.

            If those results hold up today, then the (negative) effects of most of last year’s larger rate hikes on stock prices lie out in the future.

        1. banks tightening lending standards starting late 2007 was what correlated with the popping of the last bubble

          Bye bye borrowed money, bye bye high prices. Bring it on!

      3. Market Snapshot
        U.S. Treasurys at ‘critical point’: Stocks, bonds correlation shifts as fixed-income market flashes recession warning
        Last Updated: Jan. 21, 2023 at 11:40 a.m. ET
        First Published: Jan. 21, 2023 at 8:17 a.m. ET
        By Christine Idzelis

        Bonds and stocks may be getting back to their usual relationship, a plus for investors with a traditional mix of assets in their portfolios amid fears that the U.S. faces a recession this year.

        “The bottom line is the correlation now has shifted back to a more traditional one, where stocks and bonds do not necessarily move together,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab, in a phone interview. “It is good for the 60-40 portfolio because the point of that is to have diversification.”

        That classic portfolio, consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, was hammered in 2022. It’s unusual for both stocks and bonds to tank so precipitously, but they did last year as the Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates in an effort to tame surging inflation in the U.S.

        While inflation remains high, it has shown signs of easing, raising investors’ hopes that the Fed could slow its aggressive pace of monetary tightening. And with the bulk of interest rate hikes potentially over, bonds seem to be returning to their role as safe havens for investors fearing gloom.

        “Slower growth, less inflation, that’s good for bonds,” said Jones, pointing to economic data released in the past week that reflected those trends.

        The Commerce Department said Jan. 18 that retail sales in the U.S. slid a sharp 1.1% in December, while the Federal Reserve released data that same day showing U.S. industrial production fell more than expected in December. Also on Jan. 18, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the producer-price index, a gauge of wholesale inflation, dropped last month.

        Stock prices fell sharply that day amid fears of a slowing economy, but Treasury bonds rallied as investors sought safe-haven assets.

        “That negative correlation between the returns from Treasuries and U.S. equities stands in stark contrast to the strong positive correlation that prevailed over most of 2022,” said Oliver Allen, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Jan. 19 note. The “shift in the U.S. stock-bond correlation might be here to stay.”

        A chart in his note illustrates that monthly returns from U.S. stocks and 10-year Treasury bonds were often negatively correlated over the past two decades, with 2022’s strong positive correlation being relatively unusual over that time frame.

        “The retreat in inflation has much further to run,” while the U.S. economy may be “taking a turn for the worse,” Allen said. “That informs our view that Treasuries will eke out further gains over the coming months even as U.S. equities struggle.”

        The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT, -1.62%) has climbed 6.7% this year through Friday, compared with a gain of 3.5% for the S&P 500 (SPX, +1.89%), according to FactSet data. The iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH, -1.40%) rose 5.7% over the same period.

        Charles Schwab has “a pretty positive view of the fixed-income markets now,” even after the bond market’s recent rally, according to Jones. “You can lock in an attractive yield for a number of years with very low risk,” she said. “That’s something that has been missing for a decade.”

        Jones said she likes U.S. Treasurys, investment-grade corporate bonds, and investment-grade municipal bonds for people in high tax brackets.

        Read: Vanguard expects municipal bond ‘renaissance’ as investors should ‘salivate’ at higher yields

        Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, is overweight fixed income relative to stocks as recession risks are elevated.

        “Keep it simple, stick to high-quality” assets such as U.S. government securities, he said in a phone interview. Investors start “gravitating” toward longer-term Treasurys when they have concerns about the health of the economy, he said.

        The bond market has signaled concerns for months about a potential economic contraction, with the inversion of the U.S. Treasury market’s yield curve. That’s when short-term rates are above longer-term yields, which historically has been viewed as a warning sign that the U.S. may be heading for a recession.

        But more recently, two-year Treasury yields (TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.126%) caught the attention of Charles Schwab’s Jones, as they moved below the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate. Typically, “you only see the two-year yield go under the fed funds rate when you’re going into a recession,” she said.

        The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 5.7 basis points over the past week to 4.181% on Friday, in a third straight weekly decline, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That compares with an effective federal funds rate of 4.33%, in the Fed’s targeted range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

        Two-year Treasury yields peaked more than two months ago, at around 4.7% in November, “and have been trending down since,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed Jan. 19. “This further confirms that markets strongly believe the Fed will be done raising rates very shortly.”

        As for longer-term rates, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.405%) ended Friday at 3.483%, also falling for three straight weeks, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.

        ‘Bad sign for stocks’

        Meanwhile, long-dated Treasuries maturing in more than 20 years have “just rallied by more than 2 standard deviations over the last 50 days,” Colas said in the DataTrek note. “The last time this happened was early 2020, going into the Pandemic Recession.”

        Long-term Treasurys are at “a critical point right now, and markets know that,” he wrote. “Their recent rally is bumping up against the statistical limit between general recession fears and pointed recession prediction.”

        A further rally in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF would be “a bad sign for stocks,” according to DataTrek.

        “An investor can rightly question the bond market’s recession-tilting call, but knowing it’s out there is better than being unaware of this important signal,” said Colas.

        The U.S. stock market ended sharply higher Friday, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each booked weekly losses to snap a two-week win streak. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased its weekly losses on Friday to finish with a third straight week of gains.

        In the coming week, investors will weigh a wide range of fresh economic data, including manufacturing and services activity, jobless claims and consumer spending. They’ll also get a reading from the personal-consumption-expenditures-price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

        ‘Backside of the storm’

        The fixed-income market is in “the backside of the storm,” according to Vanguard Group’s first-quarter report on the asset class.

        “The upper-right quadrant of a hurricane is called the ‘dirty side’ by meteorologists because it is the most dangerous. It can bring high winds, storm surges, and spin-off tornadoes that cause massive destruction as a hurricane makes landfall,” Vanguard said in the report.

        “Similarly, last year’s fixed income market was hit by the brunt of a storm,” the firm said. “Low initial rates, surprisingly high inflation, and a rate-hike campaign by the Federal Reserve led to historic bond market losses.”

        Now, rates might not move “much higher,” but concerns about the economy persist, according to Vanguard. “A recession looms, credit spreads remain uncomfortably narrow, inflation is still high, and several important countries face fiscal challenges,” the asset manager said.

        ‘Defensive’

        Given expectations for the U.S. economy to weaken this year, corporate bonds will probably underperform government fixed income, said Chris Alwine, Vanguard’s global head of credit, in a phone interview. And when it comes to corporate debt, “we are defensive in our positioning.”

        That means Vanguard has lower exposure to corporate bonds than it would typically, while looking to “upgrade the credit quality of our portfolios” with more investment-grade than high-yield, or so-called junk, debt, he said. Plus, Vanguard is favoring non-cyclical sectors such as pharmaceuticals or healthcare, said Alwine.

        There are risks to Vanguard’s outlook on rates.

        “While this is not our base case, we could see a Fed, faced with continued wage inflation, forced to raising a fed funds rate closer to 6%,” Vanguard warned in its report. The climb in bond yields already seen in the market would “help temper the pain,” the firm said, but “the market has not yet begun to price such a possibility.”
        …
        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-treasurys-at-critical-point-stocks-bonds-correlation-shifts-as-fixed-income-market-flashes-recession-warning-11674307083

    5. 5/6

      6/6

      The mismatch: buyers are younger than sellers.

      It’s not that some flood of houses will come because of death, debt and divorce.

      No, it’s just the NORMAL supply of houses being listed.

      With a very ABNORMAL supply of people who have enough money to swing 6.15%.

      END

    6. “Who buys their 3-bedroom or 4-bedroom house? The family with kids, theoretically. But they’re 30-50 years old, also broke”

      What family? What kids? Dick is afraid to even look at Jane lest he be Kavanaughed, and good luck affording kids on those 1970s wages while you also support half the third world. The heritage American depopulation plan is going swimmingly. Plan B was to sell the shack to foreign oligarchs looking to park their blood money, but that tide might be going back out. So enjoy the toboggan ride.

    7. “Translation: Don’t you dare bid $SPX over 4200”

      The Greenspan put has been replaced by a loaded bazooka aimed at the Wall Street bull, just in case the message that the punch bowl has been emptied and no more alcohol is forthcoming gets lost in translation.

    8. California will have a train from Bakersfield to Merced hopefully by 2030 at a cost of no less than $170 billion.

      Will anyone buy the bonds to pay for it?

  8. “Home sales in Miami-Dade County plummeted in 2022 compared to the prior year, the strongest indication the frenetic homebuying spree that defined South Florida during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic finally has ended.

    Is that a lot?

  9. “Chicago median home sale prices in 2022 remained the same as the prior year at $335,000, according to Illinois Realtors.”

    This must be a new gimmick to hide the crash, comparing the entire year to the previous year. I’ve never seen that stat used by Relitters® before.

  10. Communist insurrection in Atlanta last night, smashing windows, setting fires, arrested terrorists in possession of explosives:

    https://twitter.com/mrandyngo

    Additional links to follow. Globalist scum media either ignoring or heavily downplaying the violence of this insurrection.

    The only good communist is a dead communist.

  11. “The median sales price in Central Austin decreased almost 10% year over year, with the median home price at $647,500 in December 2022 compared to $749,500 in December 2021”

    Almost 10%? I thinks that’s almost 15%.

    2. 1-$647,500/$749,500 = 13.6% decline, whic is more than 10%.

      I guess grade school arithmetic is not a requirement on the relitter licensing exam?

  12. Living Room Realty broker Scott Cotrell thinks it makes sense to buy now.

    Always Be Closing doesn’t allow for fiduciary duty to “clients.”

    1. Would you prefer roaches to snakes?

      We encountered those once in large numbers at an AirBnB in Kona. They were gross, but probably not dangerous.

  14. So much so, in fact, that borrowers with private mortgages who cannot keep up with their payments are being forced to sell their homes— a legal term referred to as the Power of Sale process.

    Point of correction: FBs aren’t being forced to sell “their” homes, because those shacks belong to the lender until the last mortgage check clears.

    1. That’s in TrudeauLand. The rules are different there. My understanding is that borrowers have to serially refinance every few years, and if they don’t qualify (underwater, payment vs. income is too high, etc.)they have to pay the mortgage in full. Hence they are “forced to sell”. Of course they could just go into foreclosure, but IIRC, all mortgages in Canada are recourse.

      Sure seems like a scary way to borrow 10 years worth of income, but I’m not Canadian, so what do I know?

    2. Lenders are reclaiming collateral where FBs are unable to keep up with the monthly payments they agreed to pay on the money they rented.

  15. In such instances, ‘the increase in payment was so substantial as to become almost unmanageable,’ Butler added.”

    My last rent increase was very manageable. Just sayin’….

      2. It’s not like anti vaxxers are winning when billions of people around them have been poisoned. It’s a holocaust to the planet and its shocking that the corruption of institutions by forces of perverse agendas could pull this off.
        Why are bio-weapons being developed in Foreign Countries like China where the USA gives such weapons and funds to rival Countries that end up being launched on the Globe.?
        And all they talk about is more Global Panademics to come as if that is a normal happening…But no, you get 194
        Countries, including the US, giving the sole power to WHO to dictate what the response will be to the next global pandemic by Treaty .
        You know, the corrupt (WHO) World Health Organization that Bill Gates donates billions to..
        You know where the WHO leader is seen hanging around with Klaus Schwab and China Leader.
        No Media Coverage on Biden transferring power to WHO in Jan of 2023, without approval of Congress or Senate.
        Joe Biden the puppet transferring US citizens rights and Constitutional protections to WHO is probably his worse treason , but no, classified documents he stole is getting all the press.
        Im just saying that the unvaxxed aren’t winning if their fellow human is being murdered, injured and defrauded. Humanity doesn’t win when sinister forces are attacking populations of world.
        So what, I avoided the vaccine , but many a deceived person didn’t, like my niece and my friend.

        1. You have to admit, it’s an interesting phase of the realization. I don’t watch TV so I was surprised to see this being discussed on fox. This is a turning, a process. Could be some fireworks ahead.

      3. A reply: How have I won? My 37 year old friend died after the booster, my Dad got sick and ended up in hospital twice after the first shot, the whole world turned against me for 3 years and I’m left no longer trusting society or the people in my community. Yeah, feels great to ‘win’

        1. the whole world turned against me for 3 years

          The jabbed don’t get this.

          I had close relatives screaming at me to get jabbed.

          There was an endless litany of “doctors” on the local news shrieking that the local hospitals couldn’t take another patient (it was a lie, I took people twice to the ER and it was as quiet as a church on a weeknight) and that you were selfish and evil if you didn’t get jabbed.

          My own doctor browbeat me for refusing the jab, so I fired him.

          The anti-president yelled in anger that he “had lost his patience” and threatened me with the loss of my job if I did not comply. I refused and sighed in relief when the mandate that affected me was struck down by a judge.

          This was a Psyop, engineered by the evildoers in Davos, to crush us in to complete obedience and subservience. I am one of the few unjabbed in my extended family, and I still get grief from relatives.

          1. When I went to Urgent Care with COVID and pain up and down my spine, I was told by the triage nurse that I “chose poorly” for myself and my child. I’m still having to dance around stupid COVID/vax policies to get my son to 6th grade camp next month.

          2. I was told by the triage nurse that I “chose poorly” for myself and my child.

            I keep bumping into jabbed acquaintances who tell me that they’ve had Covid 2 or more times, and some of them got knocked on their keisters.

          3. told by the triage nurse that I “chose poorly”

            These people were living in fear. It was amazing how many of them there were and how much they all wanted to be in lockstep.

          5. The pain up and down my spine had the doctors worried about a heart attack, at a time when the unjabbed were deemed not worthy of living. I will never forget that experience.

          6. These people were living in fear.

            She thought she knew better than me. She didn’t. The head nurse to whom I reported her acknowledged ideological division amongst the doctors in that system.

          7. The head nurse to whom I reported her acknowledged ideological division amongst the doctors in that system.

            Which is a grave problem. Who wants a physician who operates based on politics as opposed t sound medicine? I had been under the care of my old doctor for about 20 years. He seemed to care and went the extra mile. Then, suddenly, as if someone flipped a switch, he changed. When I had Covid, I called in to let them know. What did they tell me? To get jabbed as soon as I recovered. WTF would I do that? I couldn’t believe what I was told.

            Finding a replacement was not easy. From what I have learned, almost all doctors are jabbed. I had to find a small, independent clinic.

          8. I’m still not allowed to visit my aging inlaws since I’m not vaccinated, and I was not welcome at a cousin’s daughter’s wedding. The invitation strictly said “MUST BE FULLY VACCINATED AND BOOSTED TO ATTEND,” if I recall.

            If I am ever invited to anything again in the future, I plan on telling them I no longer have interest in seeing them again period. They poisoned the well when they shunned me.

        2. Redpilled,
          Im on your same wave length that it isn’t a win for the unvaxxed.
          A war has been launched on humanity and nobody wins, but its mandatory that the culprits of this assault be stopped and face punishment .
          Its nothing but torment to me as a unvaxxed person to see the pain and suffering and death unleashed on vaxxed people by these criminals.
          And only time is going to reveal just how much conquences this attack on the world is going to play out.

        3. Agreed, no winners. I’m unjabbed but my adult children elected to get vaccinated. My wife’s and my greatest fear is potential impacts.

    2. but just out of dumb luck and he’s still smarter than everyone

      He came to that conclusion some time ago. He lost a lot of listeners, including me, because of it.

      1. antifa members fight like little b!tches- they try to sucker punch someone and then when things invariably go south they put up their hands and pretend the other person instigated it (and call for the police if possible, when just two minutes ago they were chanting to “fry pigs like bacon”). Average antifa IQ- around 92.

        1. Maximum weight for a male identified Antifa member: 125 pounds.

          Minimum weight for a female identified Antifa member: 200 pounds.

          “They’re not sending their best”

      2. My only disappointment watching that video is that he didn’t push that fake tough guy clown in the sweater back onto his asz at the end with a “sit down, beach.”

  18. Monthly mortgage payments are up 30% from a year ago.”

    Yes, but wages increased by an equal amount, so it’s all good.

    Oh, wait….

  19. “‘Instead of waiting for listing prices to drop, buyers are actually submitting offers with big discounts and making the seller make a decision and that seems to be working,’ said John Downs, senior vice president at Vellum Mortgage”

    Translation- I am 2 months behind on my mortgage, please buyers do something so I don’t lose my job and get foreclosed on.

  20. “Living Room Realty broker Scott Cotrell thinks it makes sense to buy now. ‘If they buy now, regardless of what they can afford, it’s always going to be better than renting because rent tends to always go up,’ Cotrell said”

    Translation- I am 2 months behind on my mortgage, please buyers do something so I don’t lose my job and get foreclosed on.

    1. Is it necessary to have melanin-rich skin to qualify for a million dollar payment, or would it suffice to identify as melanin-rich?

  23. ‘We are likely now to make a loss upon sale. We are so angry and upset with the government that we have ended up here.’”
    I totally understand. The Government made you buy a house twice the size and made you move. It wasn’t your idea/fault.

  25. Property taxes.

    New York Times — When Students Change Gender Identity, and Parents Don’t Know (1/22/2023):

    “Although the number of young people who identify as transgender in the United States remains small, it has nearly doubled in recent years, and schools have come under pressure to address the needs of those young people amid a polarized political environment where both sides warn that one wrong step could result in irreparable harm.”

    Nearly doubled? Because of groomer teachers, groomer school administrators, groomer school psychologists, and groomer social media. All paid for by your property taxes.

    “Schools have pointed to research that shows that inclusive policies benefit all students, which is why some education experts advise schools to use students’s preferred names and pronouns. Educators have also said they feel bound by their own morality to affirm students’ gender identities, especially in cases where students don’t feel safe coming out at home.”

    Under Marxism, children are the property of the state.

    “But dozens of parents whose children have socially transitioned at school told The Times they felt villainized by educators who seemed to think that they — not the parents — knew what was best for their children. They insisted that educators should not intervene without notifying parents unless there is evidence of physical abuse at home. Although some didn’t want their children to transition at all, others said they were open to it, but felt schools forced the process to move too quickly, and that they couldn’t raise concerns without being cut out completely or having their home labeled “unsafe.”

    https://archive.is/jixOZ

    Forced the process to move too quickly? That’s a groomer success story. And if you dare object, Attorney General Merrick Garland will toss you in the January 6th gulag.

    Keep paying those property taxes.

    1. The Bible specifically forbids woke social Justice. God does not punish people for the sins of their ancestors which is precisely what woke churches advocate.

      And the globohomo at the woke Protestant churches is infuriating.

      Almost makes me reconsider my opinions on the Protestant reformation.

    1. For those of you who don’t know, Chris Waller is the only FOMC member who was appointed by DJT.

      If he said the Fed is about to pivot any day now, I missed it.

  29. The New York Post (along with Fox News and the UK Daily Mail) is a Murdoch owned, controlled opposition publication.

    New York Post Editorial Board — The increasingly murky prospect of an end to Putin’s Ukraine war (1/21/2023):

    “Putin’s invasion must fail. Anything else represents a serious blow to US interests in Europe, to NATO’s stability and to the larger world order. Atop all Moscow’s brutality, the war on Ukraine is as much an attack on that order as it is a territorial gambit.”

    https://nypost.com/2023/01/21/the-increasingly-murky-prospect-of-an-end-to-putins-ukraine-war/

    America first. My passport doesn’t identify me as a citizen of the “larger world order” and I don’t pay federal income taxes to a tax jurisdiction identified as the “larger world order.”

    Bonus image file from Gab:

    https://media.gab.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=875,quality=100,fit=scale-down/system/media_attachments/files/125/576/630/original/3265bcde9ce2cd52.jpg

    Russia is winning.

      1. Russia Today, because the New York Times and Washington Post are globalist scum media.

        Poll indicates big change in American attitude to Ukraine aid (1/21/2023):

        “A third of Americans believe that the US has gone too far in its support for Ukraine in the present conflict, according to a new poll released on Wednesday. This is a sharp increase from late February, days after the conflict broke out, when just 7% said so.”

        https://www.rt.com/news/570257-poll-us-aid-ukraine/

        Russia is winning.

      2. So far the Ukrainians appear adept a dropping grenades with fins from hobby enthusiasts’ drones onto unsuspecting Russians. However, the real gains have come from western weapons. They’ll wait until all of the 500,000 conscripts have been moved into the conflict zone before the spring muddy season bogs down all ground movement. Then quickly close in with the 2,000-lb air-dropped JDAMs that the Ukrainians received months ago. Bring in the scoops!

        1. Always great to hear what the US propaganda machine is putting out.

          hobby enthusiasts’ drones onto unsuspecting Russians

          Those Cossacks on horseback will never know what hit them?

          500,000 conscripts have been moved into …Then quickly close in

          Half the Ukraine army is now encircled in Bahkmut. They have a problem. I guess they could quickly close in though. Or something.

          2,000-lb air-dropped JDAMs

          Their Air Force was wiped out in the first five days. Better think of something else.

          1. Bakhmut is not a strategic military target, IIRC. More likely a killing field. It doesn’t look like much is left standing there, just rubble. The Ukrainian’s aircraft were not capable of carrying or deploying JDAM ordinance.

          2. Bakhmut is not a strategic military target

            I’ve heard that in the Western Media as well, but only recently. If it’s not strategic, I can only wonder why they poured half their army into it.

            What’s the plan for dropping 2,000 lb bombs if there aren’t any bombers to carry them?

          3. What’s the plan for dropping 2,000 lb bombs if there aren’t any bombers to carry them?

            Don’t let facts cloud their propaganda.

          4. I recall reading that Slovakian Mig 29s were to be modified in Germany by U.S. contractors to support the JDAMs, which are capable of gliding a substantial distance providing effective stand-off range for the Mig 29s, which are vulnerable to SAMs.

            The Ukrainians are hearty but poorly trained militia, and the Russians are poorly trained conscripts. The game changer is a vast U.S. intelligence, reconnaissance and spy network and the 1-meter (+/-) smart weapon systems.

            The Russians are struggling with mass produced 50-yr-old technology and a corrupt logistics system. Meanwhile the U.S. is identifying current deficiencies, and providing effective improvements, e.g., modifications to the Excalibur artillery rounds to make up for the lack of tank killer aircraft such as the A10 fixed wing and AH-64 rotor wing platforms.

            The patriot missiles are very long range anti-aircraft weapons, which will keep Russian aircraft from the fight; they’ll lose a few aircraft before being grounded. When the spring thaw happens and the resulting mud slows ground movement to a crawl the modified Mig 29s will be able to deliver the JDAMs, which will make their own way to designated targets with 2,000-lb warheads rather than the current 180-lb warheads typical of the artillery systems. And the JDAMs are way cheaper too!

            If the politicians don’t phuc it up the rout should resemble the Iraqis fleeing Kuwait.

      2. Already hearing that large sections are poles and “mercenary” americans. (aka special ops). US mil even put out that one was killed who was ‘disavowed”. Which means he was clearly US SF.

        Yeah all those helicopter training accidents lately where 10 military guys die and no body could be recovered. Yeah, that’s the cover story.

        1. Already hearing that large sections are poles and “mercenary” americans. (aka special ops).

          That’s the scam. Earmark money for Ukraine through CONgress where, in turn, it is used to purchase the services of mercenaries provided by Halliburton through no-bid contracts, with all that money flowing right back into the pockets of the very corporations who have put those politicians in office in the first place.

  31. Who’s Running the World? 8 Takeaways From This Week’s WEF Meeting (1/20/2023):

    “The Defender on Wednesday reported on the first few days of meetings. This article lists eight key takeaways from Davos — and why they matter.

    One of the proposals that generated the most attention at this year’s WEF meeting came from embattled former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, now executive chairman of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

    Blair proposed the development of a “national digital infrastructure,” stating, “We should be helping countries to develop a national digital infrastructure which they will need with these new vaccines” — a statement that strongly suggested “new vaccines” are coming and we will “need” them.

    As previously reported by The Defender, Blair endorsed the “Good Health Pass,” a digital vaccine passport launched by ID2020, a collaborative effort between Mastercard, the International Chamber of Commerce and the WEF.

    Members of the Good Health Pass Collaborative include Accenture, Deloitte and IBM, while general partners of ID2020 include Facebook and Mastercard.

    ID2020’s founding partners include Microsoft, the Rockefeller Foundation, Accenture, GAVI, The Vaccine Alliance (a core partner of the World Health Organization, or WHO), UNICEF, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Bank.

    Statements by WEF’s Founder and Executive Chair Klaus Schwab and WEF meeting participants also revealed how the “elite” meeting participants appear to believe they are the self-anointed saviors — or rulers — of the world.

    In an interview with India Today, which sent two attendees to this year’s WEF meeting, Schwab said the world will soon no longer be run by superpowers such as the U.S., but instead by WEF “stakeholders,” such as BlackRock and Bill Gates.

    During another session, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, foreign affairs minister of Pakistan whose mother, Benazir Bhutto, was formerly the country’s prime minister, talked about a “new world order” that is being stymied by “hyper-partisan[ship].”

    Also during the same panel, Slovenian Foreign Minister Tanja Falon, said, “We have countries that are respecting their national interest going beyond the rules,” referring to “global rules,” adding that “we have to take into consideration The World Order.”

    And Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry told meeting attendees, “We are a select group of human beings” who “sit in a room and come together and actually talk about saving the planet.”

    Schachtel noted that at the WEF meetings, “conformity is required and debate is a cancel-worthy sin.”

    He elaborated on this point in a recent blog post, describing the WEF meetings as “a reinforced echo chamber in which there is one problem, one objective, and only one solution,” instead of being “a place for a healthy, robust debate.”

    Schachtel wrote:

    “Regardless of who populates these panels and speeches, whether it’s invited corporate media, governmental officials, and/or business executives, there’s never any apparent dissent or difference of opinion expressed.

    “The truth of the matter is that the WEF and its leaders prefer conformity to debate. In fact, debate is actively discouraged, and stepping out of line — via a narrative violation — is grounds for permanent removal from Club Davos.”

    Journalist Jack Pobosiec said the “WEF/WHO and the Davos mindsets are essential to understand [because] this is the mindset that governs our world here in the West. Vast amounts of our leaders, even down to lower levels, ascribe to the globally homogenized and technocratic vision of the world. Do not overlook this.”

    The annual WEF meetings are renowned for their promotion of technocracy, and this year’s meeting continued that trend.

    An example of this was a session titled “Improving Livelihoods with Digital ID,” which promoted “an international ID policy to realize financial, social and health equity through digital identification.”

    According to journalist Andrew Lawton, this panel “was not streamed and was not open to the press.” The panel included participants from the Global Digital Policy Incubator, Hedera, the Dubai Future Foundation and DataKind.

    During another session, panelists predicted “humans will soon embrace implanted brain technology so they ‘can decode complex thought,’” adding that “neurosignals can be used for biometrics” and that the more widely adopted neurotechnology becomes, the more data can be gathered on humans.

    Many of the proposals presented this week will necessarily involve large-scale changes to people’s livelihoods and habits.

    In an example of the behavioral psychology concept of “nudging,” Cepsa CEO Maarten Wetselaar advocated in favor of “much higher carbon prices,” in order to “make what you try to avoid expensive and subsidize the thing that you try to build.” He called this a “very capitalist intervention.”

    The “15-minute city” concept, where people will be car-less, was also touted, while a member of Switzerland’s Green Party called for “punishing businesses that don’t adhere to climate agreements.” Indeed, a “5-minute city” proposal was also put forth, that would be “100% solar and wind-powered.”

    Meat — or discouraging its consumption — was also on the agenda. Jim Hagemann Snabe, chairman of Siemens, said, “If a billion people stop eating meat, I tell you, it has a big impact. Not only does it have a big impact on the current food system, but it will also inspire innovation of food systems.” Snabe also advocated for synthetic meat.

    And while participants proclaim to be engaged in the business of saving the world, Greenpeace noted attendees arrived “in droves of private jets.” The Guardian reported that private jet emissions quadrupled during the 2022 WEF meeting.

    One attendee, interviewed by independent journalist Savanah Hernandez, justified the extensive use of private jets in these terms: “I think it’s more important what decisions are made here rather than how the people come here, by plane or by train,” while a driver for VIPs in Davos revealed that, for such figures, “I cannot drive electricity car.”

    Despite the WEFs agenda to reduce meat consumption, Hernandez noted, “All of the attendees in the food halls are eating MEAT. Also, the hors d’oeuvres served to WEF attendees at parties have MEAT [emphasis original].”

    And according to Lawton, attendees enjoyed “wine and hors d’œuvres” while discussing “food insecurity in Africa.”

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/wef-meeting-davos-klaus-gates/

    Globalists gonna globe.

    1. And according to Lawton, attendees enjoyed “wine and hors d’œuvres” while discussing “food insecurity in Africa.”

      There it is: TEOTWAWKI

    2. a reinforced echo chamber in which there is one problem, one objective, and only one solution

      And these echo chambers decide when a puppet is no longer useful and must be replaced.

      In an interview with India Today, which sent two attendees to this year’s WEF meeting, Schwab said the world will soon no longer be run by superpowers such as the U.S., but instead by WEF “stakeholders,” such as BlackRock and Bill Gates.

      Well, so much for that being a conspiracy theory. And let there be no doubt, these monsters have already decided there far too many people on the world and have plans in places to cull the herd.

    3. The glaring thing about the masterminds of
      the WEF and the One World Order Great Reset agenda is the human race gets no choice in what these fraudsters want to do.

      Its all forced on the populations without debate by this group that thinks they can just take over the World, saying that they are saving the planet.
      Humans and animals and energy releases carbons, therefore these gases must be eliminated . Humans need to be altered against their will and subjected to these psyopathic nuts visions of a enslaved humanity .
      Can you imagine eating bugs, owning nothing , confined to a 5 mile radius, hacked and under constant surveillance, deprived and being in this sort of prison. Very 1984-ish. Can’t even question their fraudulent narratives , like you couldn’t question the fake vaccines?
      Its pretty clear that their narratives are fraudulent and the corruption of Science of medical and Climate Change Science is their method of deception to take over.
      And its not like they haven’t plotted to do this to humanity for over a century , as proven in their own documents.
      Socially engineering people into extinction. and enslavement by contrived Pandemics and BS Climate Change.
      The real evidence shows that Climate Change is not a threat,and Panademics have been planned by them, to get fake vaccines in population , and a means of tyranny take over.
      Everything these fraudsters want to take away, is everything humanity needs to survive and thrive.
      Who in the hell are these unelected weirdos that are a terrorist cult that want to exercise this forced slavery of the globe with their victims having no say so in their destiny?
      Unbelievable, just unbelievable.

      1. The glaring thing about the masterminds of
        the WEF and the One World Order Great Reset agenda is the human race gets no choice in what these fraudsters want to do.

        They don’t consider us to be human. As far as they are concerned the world is theirs and we are ruining it for them. We are in the way of their goals. Never forget that they coined the term “useless eater”.

        1. useless eater
          Anyone who has worked closely with rich people, as I did in my yout 😉, doesn’t find this surprising at all.

      2. The CEO of Pfizer was just “interviewed” by Rebel News at Davos while walking down a public street. Without a security detail.

        A man with a terminal disease could go out a hero.

        1. I’ll bet those journalists had to pass through metal detectors and be wanded before being allowed to get into the party

          2. The new machines can detect more than metal. One time at the airport, I forgot I had a $20 bill in my pocket. They knew I had it.

  32. Been a while since anyone posted about Reddit. Here, a thread with 548 comments (now locked) titled “Today 99 years ago, one of the greatest revolutionary minds of our modern times passed on. Lenin lived, Lenin lives, Lenin will live forever!”

    https://old.reddit.com/r/LateStageCapitalism/comments/10hjoko/today_99_years_ago_one_of_the_greatest/?limit=500

    Late Stage Capitalism’s description of itself, and terms of use:

    “This subreddit is for news, discussion, memes, and links criticizing capitalism and advancing viewpoints that challenge liberal capitalist ideology. That means any support for any liberal capitalist political party (like the Democrats) is strictly prohibited.

    LSC is run by communists. This subreddit is not the place to debate socialism.”

    Note that someone awarded this thread Reddit Gold. Somebody paid money to Reddit to embed a bling emoji on the thread.

    “They’re not sending their best”

    1. More Reddit for your Sunday LOLZ (image file screenshot courtesy of 4chan) this one titled:

      “I start crying when I’m taken out of densely populated areas”

      https://ibb.co/fMSVrLw

      “They’re not sending their best”

      1. This makes me think of Asimov’s novel The Caves of Steel.

        In that story humanity lives underground and has automatons work on the surface, doing farming and such. Most humans never visit the surface, as they experience vertigo when they see the open sky.

  33. This alleged member of Congress wearing a Ukrainistan lapel flag pin is guilty of treason.

    Politico — Send Ukraine tanks to get Germany to do so, McCaul urges (1/22/2023):

    “The new chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee said Sunday it is important the United States announce it is supplying tanks to Ukraine in order to get Germany and other nations to do so.

    Speaking on ABC’s “This Week,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said the U.S. needed to make moves to spur European nations into action and help President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine avoid an extended, bloody war of attrition — what McCaul called “a slow bleed without a chance of victory.”

    McCaul said: “If we announce we were going to give Abrams tanks, just one, that would unleash … From what I hear, Germany is waiting for us to take the lead.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/22/mccaul-ukraine-tanks-germany-russia-00078894

    Take the lead? How about instead of stealing U.S. taxpayer money to give to a corrupt, unelected, CIA-installed globalist (who BTW is not a Christian) you take the lead by sending all of your sons and grandsons to Ukrainistan NOW, TODAY, to die on the front lines.

    War pigs gonna pig.

    1. You are all guilty of TREASON.

      The Hill — Bipartisan group of senators meets with Zelensky, other Ukrainian officials in Kyiv (1/21/2023):

      “A bipartisan group of senators met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials in Kyiv on Friday. 

      Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) met with Zelensky in the presidential palace and received a briefing on Ukraine’s security situation, according to a release from the Ukrainian president’s office. 

      The release states that Zelensky thanked the senators for helping arrange his visit to the United States last month, in which he spoke before Congress and met with President Biden, and said he felt “strong support” from the U.S. 

      “I appreciate the organization of this visit. I want to thank all of you, the entire society, all Americans”

      https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3822857-bipartisan-group-of-senators-meets-with-zelensky-other-ukrainian-officials-in-kyiv/

      Nobody outside of the Beltway supports you.

      Russia is winning.

  34. “‘Instead of waiting for listing prices to drop, buyers are actually submitting offers with big discounts and making the seller make a decision and that seems to be working,’ said John Downs, senior vice president at Vellum Mortgage, noting that there’s been an uptick in price reductions in the Washington, DC area.”

    Making serial lowball offers until one is accepted is definitely the way to navigate under knifecather’s paradise market conditions. Figure out what you can comfortably afford, and fashion your offers accordingly…don’t offer a penny more. Sellers may still be in denial for now about how much the market has shifted, but they will eventually wake up and smell the coffee.

        1. That’s to keep a repo tow truck from snagging it.

          Aren’t you just speculating anyway? There’s no indication that this guy is behind in payments. People with multiple vehicles always snug right behind them to keep their vehicles from sticking out.

  37. ‘upsized from their three-bedroom mid-terrace former council house in central Hertfordshire to a £600,000 five-bed in a Cambridgeshire town in spring 2021, in the belief that mortgage rates would remain low. ‘We stretched our budget to move to our dream house. Monthly payments have just increased by £370’

    Stretched and then rates went up. I’ve read about this happening before.

    ‘they’re just simply saying, ‘well we have to get the money back, so we’re going to put you into power of sale’

    Ron, they are dating the rate! Are you saying there are already rate daters getting schlonged?

    2. Anybody remember in 06/07 all the people that “stretched” to get their dream home and you would go over and it would be like 1 couch and some bricks and 2×8’s for bookshelves and a TV on the floor cuz they couldn’t afford anything (much less the maintenance). I’m sure everyone learned from that.

  38. ‘Prices and sales are now lower than they were at this time last year, with another drop in December, according to Illinois Realtors. Chicago median home sale prices in 2022 remained the same as the prior year at $335,000, according to Illinois Realtors. But in December, prices were down 8.1% compared with the same month in 2021’

    That a pretzel, writer. Chicago has been sinking like a turd in a well for years.

  39. ‘Sales activity in the Commonwealth’s housing market has been cooling for 13 consecutive months now. This is largely due to mortgage rates doubling over the past year’

    So taxpayer didn’t get the spring cray cray.

    via GIPHY

  40. ‘We came to the awful conclusion that the only way to avoid financially struggling in future was to sell our home before we got into trouble’

    Sounds like trouble already moved into the guest room Babs.

    ‘Barbara and John put their home on the market last month, and have already had to reduce the price. ‘We are likely now to make a loss upon sale. We are so angry and upset with the government that we have ended up here’

    Another little sh$thole with a queen on the money finds out shack bubbles are no way to run a country.

    1. They should try an exorcism to get those evil spirits out of the house. Could be a future growth industry, learn to exorcise! Best of all it is unlikely to be outsourced to Chat GPT. Profit!

  41. Ardern’s resignation ‘marks a failure of woke politics’
    Sky News Australia
    Jan 19, 2023
    Sky News Australia host Andrew Bolt says New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s resignation “marks a failure of woke politics”.

    “It’s one thing to seem good, it is a very different thing to actually do it, and that is why Ardern was leading her Labor government to defeat, according to recent polls,” he said. “However things are made to seem though, the reality will come out.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc6mI-wG-0o

    6:19. A difference in how foreigners saw her and New Zealanders.

  42. 𝗔𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻, 𝗧𝗫 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟲% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗗𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗮𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗜𝗻 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗳-𝗣𝗶𝘁𝘆

    https://www.movoto.com/allen-tx/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘋𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “𝘚𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘣𝘺 𝘥𝘰𝘶𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘨𝘪𝘵𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘥𝘰 𝘪𝘵 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘢 𝘣𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘳.”

  44. For 2022, anyone who earned just $600 in aggregate through a third-party payment network will receive a 1099-K form. The old threshold, prior to 2022, was more than $20,000 in income over 200 or more transactions. This money does not include payments processed from “friends and family.”
    If you received funds for “goods and services” that should have been processed as a payment from “friends and family,” you may have to pay taxes on that money. 😧

    1. This is Biden’s plan to “make billionaires pay their fair share,” because you just know it’s the billionaires selling trinkets on Ebay and Etsy.

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