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Investors Who Were Planning On Flipping Are Now Feeling Fear And Panic

A report from the Montana Standard. “Home sales have slowed to Great Recession levels as the housing market adjusts to elevated mortgage rates, said John Kasperick, a longtime economist at NorthWestern Energy in Butte, and total mortgage demand has sunk to its lowest level since 1997. According to statistics from December, home sales are down 58% from last year in Butte-Silver Bow County. Inventory is up 59% from last year and median days on the market is now at 44 days, up 131% from last year.The median sales price in December was $316,000, which is still up from 2021, Kasperick said. For comparison, the median sales price in Gallatin County was $786,000 and overall sales there are down 38% from a year ago. ‘As the market continues to adjust to the higher interest rates, there will be some downward pressure on home prices in our areas over time,’ Kasperick said.”

WREG in Tennessee. “Realtors in Memphis say you are more likely to buy a house below the listing price than you were at the same time last year. In Memphis, house prices rose by 9% in 2022, and the average house cost was $262,000. However, Michelle Hayes Thomas with Hayes Homes & Realty said that number dropped to $240,000 in December. After a year or more of it being a seller’s market, things are starting to slow down, allowing buyers to negotiate a little more. ‘The market is stabilizing,’ said Hayes Thomas. ‘It’s good for a healthy market for everyone to have opportunities, both the sellers and the buyers.'”

The Sun Sentinel in Florida. “For homebuyers who have been waiting to get relief in today’s market, some sellers may be more willing to offer concessions during sales. The increase comes as the dynamic between homebuyers and sellers shifts, giving buyers more power to negotiate for what they want. ‘It’s case by case, but I would say in my experience, sellers are becoming more agreeable to it,’ said Brian Bahn, with Lang Realty in Boca Raton. ‘In the last six months or year, sellers weren’t willing to work with buyers as far as adjusting the contracted amount to meet the appraised amount,’ Bahn said. ‘With demand not as high as it was two years ago, I foresee that sellers will be more open to further negotiation after the appraisal is done.'”

KVUE in Texas. “According to Zillow, the Austin metro area has plummeted from its list of hottest real estate markets in the country, falling to 30th place nationwide for 2023. That’s a big drop when you consider that Austin ranked No. 10 in 2022 and was the No. 1 hottest housing market in 2021. Homes within Austin city limits remain expensive at a median price of $525,250 in December, but that’s a 5.4% price drop from a year ago. Average home prices also dropped by 2.4% in Williamson County, and in Bastrop County by 6.5%.”

From USA Today. “Anna Raymond was ready to make the switch from renting to owning a home last spring. But after five failed offers, she and her husband decided to take a step back from house hunting. Then, in December, their real estate agent presented an offer too good to pass. A home in Longmont was up for sale, and the seller was willing to offer a 2-1 interest rate buydown. ‘I think for them, they just wanted a quick sell and for us, we wanted a good price. And so we were able to both be happy in the process,’ Raymond, 28, said. ‘We figure we can refinance within a couple of years and, worst-case scenario, if we don’t, our salaries will catch up.'”

“Redfin found a record number of seller concessions – offers like mortgage rate buydowns that help reduce costs – in the fourth quarter, especially among cooling ‘pandemic boomtowns’ like Phoenix and Las Vegas. ‘About almost 100% of the clients that I’ve had the opportunity to work with since the fourth quarter of last year, even now, are exercising that interest rate by concession from the seller,’ said San Diego-based real estate agent Andre Mejia of Connect Realty. ‘The market has finally shifted.'”

Market Watch. “Home builders are playing hardball by offering mortgage rates as low as 3% on new homes to boost buyer demand. Put simply, some builders are eating the difference between the prevailing mortgage rate and what consumers will accept, just to get inventory moving and empty homes off their back. In California, Pacific Point Communities is offering a 4-bedroom home at a mortgage rate “as low as 2.75%.” In Texas, Pulte Homes is offering a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 4.25% for single-family homes from three to five bedrooms. And in various parts of the country, K. Hovanian is offering a fixed-rate mortgage at 4.99%.”

“Builders also lowering mortgage rates to get around reducing prices, as this can affect the value of homes that have already been sold, said Jason Will, senior vice president of market growth at Embrace Home Loans, and also their ability to raise prices on future homes.”

From NBC News. “Renters are on track to get some relief in 2023 as a growing number of indicators suggest the red-hot rental market has started to cool. Also driving down rents is a wave of new apartment buildings that have been opening over the past year. In 2021 and 2022, more than 800,000 new apartments came on the market with apartment building construction at its highest levels in 50 years. ‘The balance of power in the rental market has really shifted very rapidly to renters,’ said Jay Parsons, chief economist for RealPage. ‘We’ve now got four straight months where month-over-month new leases have actually come down. The market has really changed materially,’ Parsons said. ‘So while we’re seeing 40-year highs in construction, the vast majority of this is luxury rental properties that will be leasing to six-figure-income households. We’re not really meeting that demand at the lower end of the market, unfortunately.'”

The Hamilton Spectator in Canada. “While initially cheaper, in the case of condo towers, properties can take years to build. Those who purchased in 2019 or 2020, when interest rates were lower, are facing financial challenges resulting in buyers being unable to close, said Shawn DeLaat, real estate agent in St. Catharines. Despite Niagara having fewer condo towers, DeLaat said the same has been happening locally, albeit on a smaller scale.”

“One development DeLaat represents began selling units pre-COVID, and delivered to buyers this year. Of the eight that had to close, four did not, he said. Instead, buyers chose to walk away. For some, that meant walking away from $25,000 or $50,000 deposits because when the scheduled closing date arrived, buyers could not come to the table with money. ‘These guys were all hedging their bets that their properties would be worth exponential amounts and now they’re almost worth what they paid,’ he said. ‘”

“It all stems largely from rising interest rates, with the Bank of Canada increasing the lending rate seven times in 2022, to 4.25 per cent. It also impacted the real estate market overall, with the average Niagara home falling about 29 per cent from its peak in February 2022.”

“Broker Michael Jawanda said he’s seeing a higher number of buyers going the assignment route. ‘Most people, at this point, won’t be able to afford the payments, whether it be a property for end-use or investors who would be looking to lease out the properties which in turn forces people to look to assign their properties,’ he said, adding he’s heard a few buyers going directly to the developers to see if they can negotiate the price, which is ‘often not the case.'”

“For those who can afford to close, they are doing so with the hope interest rates will decrease in the near future. And others, are ‘trying to get out now,’ he said. ‘They’re stuck in that bind.'”

The Toronto Star in Canada. “”It was once nearly unthinkable in the GTA, but data from HouseSigma suggests that more people are now losing money off-loading properties, a sign of another crack in the region’s volatile real estate market. A Burlington detached home that was sold mid-reno, for hundreds of thousands of dollars less than what it got in summer 2021. A Brampton townhouse that went for about $340,000 under what it fetched the year before. And an Etobicoke condo that was purchased in December for about $60,000 shy of what it got mid-pandemic.”

“‘There is an increase in units being ‘sold below bought,’ particularly when expressed as a percentage of the total sold,’ said Michael Carney, HouseSigma’s director of business development. Carney said these are likely people who bought between 2020 and early 2022, given the dramatic run-up in prices during that period. Indeed, all of the above examples were purchased at or close to the price peak when interest rates were at record lows, and then put back on the market in the past few months, according to sales data from HouseSigma.”

“Carney said some sellers are trying to upgrade to a bigger property that’s also gone down in price, taking a loss but staying in the market. ‘And then obviously there is talk out there that people are selling because of the mortgage rates,’ he said. ‘There are people who are definitely feeling the hurt, people who got variable rate mortgages when rates were 1-something, and now they’re looking at 4-something or 5-something.'”

“Nasma Ali, founder at One Group—Re/Max Hallmark, has heard about buyers getting nervous and not closing deals, despite the penalties that come with that. She is also hearing about ‘a lot of people who are now at this stage of feeling fear and panic.’ ‘Definitely I think some of these may have been investors who were planning on flipping,’ Ali said. ‘When you’re flipping, you’re not necessarily going to be selling at a profit in this market.'”


“Recent data from Urbanation shows that the GTA is expected to see a record number of new condo units completed this year. ‘To me that means that there’s going to be a lot of over-leveraged buyers that are going to have to sell something,’ said Ali. But overall, ‘you’re not going to see those mass sales. Right now a lot of people are just holding their breath,’ she added. They’re wondering, ‘When is the pain going to stop?'”

From Bloomberg. “Turmoil at trophy properties in London and Frankfurt offer a glimpse of the damage awaiting European real estate investors as they face the sharpest reversal on record. From a fraught refinancing process for an office building in the City of London to the strained sale of the Commerzbank Tower in Germany’s financial hub, investors are scrambling to find ways to bridge financing gaps as lending markets seize up from rapidly rising interest rates.”

“The reality check will start to hit in the coming weeks as lenders across Europe get results of year-end appraisals. Hefty declines in valuations threaten to cause breaches of loan covenants, triggering emergency funding measures from forced sales to pumping in fresh cash. ‘Europe is going to go through the great unwind of 10 years of easy money,’ said Skardon Baker, a partner at private equity firm Apollo Global Management. ‘The amount of distress and dislocation is off the spectrum.'”

“Sweden has so far been the epicenter of the crisis, with home prices projected to drop 20% from peak levels. The country’s listed property firms have lost 30% of their value over the past 12 months, and the Swedish central bank and Financial Supervisory Authority have repeatedly warned of the risks stemming from commercial property debt. Falling real estate values could trigger a ‘domino effect,’ as demands for more collateral could force distressed selling, according to Anders Kvist, a senior adviser to the director of the FSA.”

“While there are some pockets of stability like in Italy and Spain, which were hit harder after the global financial crisis, the UK is slumping and there are signs that Germany could be next.”

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This Post Has 112 Comments

  1. ‘The median sales price in December was $316,000, which is still up from 2021’

    See, John got the memo: forget about 2022 like it never happened. Although I would suggest we wipe 2021 out too cuz crater.

    1. “The median sales price in December was $316,000…”

      The college towns are the only places in Montana with an economic pulse. The only roads plowed of snow are the two lane state highways and the federal interstate. Local welfare and federal disability programs make the world go round.

      1. Underpaid school teachers make minimum payments on their student loans until their public service contract pays-off the balance. Everyone is cozy with socialism.

      2. Whenever I drive through a small town, I wonder what those people are doing for a living. It appears most of them are in end-user service-level retail, working at grocery stores or car dealerships or schools or whatever. These were factory towns, but the factory economy went overseas, if it returns it will be to Mexico. But there’s got to be some money flowing in from upstream. My only guess is that it’s social security or state/fed gov pensions of parents supporting multiple loser kids. How long can this go on?

          1. Yes, I’m a Fedgov. But I have an office in/near a major city. I’m talking Oil City type towns way out of commuting distance, and pre-pandemic when few people worked remote.

        2. I was asking because your comment came off as pretty condescending toward people who live in small towns, as if they’re leeches or drains on society. FYI a lot of people consider federal government workers to be amongst the biggest leeches around.

          1. Former federal contractor, you could eliminate half the positions (both fed and contractor) in my old office and nobody would notice any difference.

        3. Whenever I drive through a small town

          You’re probably missing just about everything but the retail. The road “through” my small town is exactly where all the retail is. The hundreds of places that produce things are not as visible.

        4. “Whenever I drive through a small town, I wonder what those people are doing for a living. It appears most of them are in end-user service-level retail, working at grocery stores or car dealerships or schools or whatever.”

          I’m in a small town, population 8,500 in 2020, and it is also the county seat of government. The largest private employer in town is Walmart, and the good jobs are at the public utility district, the county government, the state school system and a handful of federal offices mostly related to social benefits. There are lots of little unincorporated towns around us featuring a post office, a coin laundry and a saloon.

          There are plenty of blue collar jobs for the able bodied who can cope with below zero winters and 110-degree summers. Then there are the college degree jobs that pay well compared to the cost of living, so mom can afford to stay home raising their kids until they’re making solid progress in the K12 schools. Lastly, there’s the remaining 40% who are on welfare having babies, the disabled who are frequently morbidly obese, the unskilled with spotty employment histories and the highly dysfunctional who are drug addled petty thieves.

          After the military, the small cities like ours were the only affordable choice where we could buy a home and still have enough savings to get our two kids through college, and I’m a civil engineer!

          Today, there’s no escaping the high cost of living as the homes around us are now priced well beyond the reach of most local income earners.

      3. ‘The median sales price in December was $316,000, which is still up from 2021’

        And now they’re cratering…. They’ll be well under $100k in short order with the way prices and tanking everywhere…. that’s all a house is worth.

        Anaconda, MT Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As National Median Prices Declines Hit Double Digits

        https://www.movoto.com/anaconda-mt/market-trends/

  2. ‘Of the eight that had to close, four did not, he said. Instead, buyers chose to walk away. For some, that meant walking away from $25,000 or $50,000 deposits because when the scheduled closing date arrived, buyers could not come to the table with money. ‘These guys were all hedging their bets that their properties would be worth exponential amounts and now they’re almost worth what they paid’

    Can’t they also be sued for the crater when the airbox is sold at a whopping loss Shawn? This has been going on in the background for months BTW.

    1. yes, they can be sued for the difference in the original purchase price that they signed, and what the property eventually gets sold for.

      In practice, this only works for a larger difference – say more than $100-150K. They have to pay lawyers and wait for 3-5 years for the civil case to be heard and decided. In most cases they try to settle for some thing much lower.

  3. According to statistics from December, home sales are down 58% from last year in Butte-Silver Bow County. Inventory is up 59% from last year and median days on the market is now at 44 days, up 131% from last year.

    Is that a lot?

  4. ‘So while we’re seeing 40-year highs in construction, the vast majority of this is luxury rental properties that will be leasing to six-figure-income households’

    Sure they will Jay. Better start working on that resume.

    1. This is just like commercial A, B, C office properties. Some A’s will rent well = but B’s and C’s will have to lower prices to get tenants.

      Wow – who knew that higher interest rates could cause havoc with your investment plans

  5. ‘Homes within Austin city limits remain expensive at a median price of $525,250 in December, but that’s a 5.4% price drop from a year ago. Average home prices also dropped by 2.4% in Williamson County, and in Bastrop County by 6.5%’

    More Texas sh$tholes rolling over YOY.

  6. ‘We figure we can refinance within a couple of years and, worst-case scenario, if we don’t, our salaries will catch up.’”

    Wait for it: these “victims” will join the caravan of FBs bleating that mortgage lenders “never should’ve loaned us so much money.”

    1. I love these people that put little to nothing down and then think they are going to refinance in a few years when they have negative equity. Yeah, nobody but Guido the loan shark is lending into that. Idiots

      Jingle Mail is coming.

  7. ‘Then, in December, their real estate agent presented an offer too good to pass. A home in Longmont was up for sale, and the seller was willing to offer a 2-1 interest rate buydown. ‘I think for them, they just wanted a quick sell and for us, we wanted a good price. And so we were able to both be happy in the process…We figure we can refinance within a couple of years and, worst-case scenario, if we don’t, our salaries will catch up’

    Anna is wisely dating the rate!

    1. If you go back under google past street pictures it was a really nice looking place 2 apartments so i wonder about the 400 sq ft though https://www.google.com/maps/place/812+N+Record+Ave,+Los+Angeles,+CA+90063/@34.0457313,-118.1823182,3a,75y,81.81h,90t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sKo4IxN341ozgZB7WZWbZsQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192!4m13!1m7!3m6!1s0x80c2c58b315e393d:0xa7b4c3502af2c86e!2s812+N+Record+Ave,+Los+Angeles,+CA+90063!3b1!8m2!3d34.0457532!4d-118.1821631!3m4!1s0x80c2c58b315e393d:0xa7b4c3502af2c86e!8m2!3d34.0457532!4d-118.1821631

      1. Wait, there’s a “google past?” How do I get to it?

        (and now that I think about it, there must be a way to access past photos. I’ve seen a couple YT shorts videos which follow a property — usually in Destroit — over time as is deteriorates.)

        As for this house, it’s worth the land and the sewer hookup and that’s about it. Maybe the “400 sq ft” is the only stable area in the fire-damaged house where people are allowed to stand. I bet it’s still worth $375K.

        1. there is little black box the address and street view google icon and the date next to some of them is a liitle clock icon you can see the pix back to 2007

          2. Thank you, got it. I like looking at the Pimmit Hills area of Northern Virginia. In the past decade, lots of tiny Cold War ranch houses were razed and replaced with mansions. The area is within walking distance public transport, major highways and shopping. It’s in high demand.

      2. Why would such a little apartment need so many garbage pails?

        Maybe because 17 illegals are living in it? 🤣

  9. A Burlington detached home that was sold mid-reno, for hundreds of thousands of dollars less than what it got in summer 2021. A Brampton townhouse that went for about $340,000 under what it fetched the year before.

    Die, speculator scum.

  10. She is also hearing about ‘a lot of people who are now at this stage of feeling fear and panic.’

    As I sit in my comfy, reasonably-priced rental, I’m trying to summon forth some vicarious fear and panic for these greedy speculators, but I’m just not feeling it.

    1. Dude I’m doing the same damn thing. My wife has told me to stop being so happy all the time; especially when I go to work. All my co-workers know that I’m rental scum these days after selling my house last year and scum needs to be miserable. That’s how the world works. The betters (home-owners) need to know that scum (renters) are truly miserable and wanting to be just like them.

  11. ‘Europe is going to go through the great unwind of 10 years of easy money,’ said Skardon Baker, a partner at private equity firm Apollo Global Management. ‘The amount of distress and dislocation is off the spectrum.’”

    Gosh, who knew that “growth” fueled by a limitless gusher of central bank funny money could ever have unintended consequences?

  12. You’ll find more truth on Gab than you ever will in the New York Times or Washington Post.

  13. 𝗣𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗮𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗮 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵, 𝗙𝗟 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟲% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗩𝗮𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗧𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝗢𝗻 𝗥𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝘂𝗱

    https://www.movoto.com/pensacola-beach-fl/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘗𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘢𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘢 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “𝘐𝘧 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 $120𝘬, 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭. 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘥𝘢𝘺, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳.”

    1. I hope for the car owner’s sake that he doesn’t live in the wrong city- or he is going away for a few years.

  17. Not sure what’s going on with Staples, but every day in my mailbox they are giving big discounts on ink and toner paper… even 50% last week so i bought ink i don’t need yet

    Print and get rewarded
    40% back in rewards on ink & toner.
    Exclusions apply. No minimum purchase required. †
    Shop now
    Coupon code: 36162. Ends 01/28/23.

  18. A reader sent these in:

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    This is curious and quaint given I’m the most public detractor of a pivot.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1617255941052809221

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    The true tragedy is pivoteers’ inability to grasp that past pivots CAUSED income inequality.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1617267278126497793

    Individual investors have been doubling down on Tesla stock. They have spent more money on TSLA in the past six months than in the 5 years prior—in Jan, net purchases hit a one-day record

    https://twitter.com/GunjanJS/status/1617283992969170945

    Owner’s equivalent rent is likely set to fall meaningfully in the months ahead. Home prices tend to lead it both up and down. Another welcome disinflationary trend in the making.

    https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1617309806011768833

    California housing is crashing…

    https://twitter.com/clkleinmonaco/status/1617256618210590721

    If the Bank of Canada keeps rate at current levels, housing prices need to fall 40% from current levels. Let this sink in.

    https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO/status/1617042543652515840

    Facebook ads are the best sentiment check

    https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1617167803592630275

    Home price collapse: June 2022 – Dec 2023: 11.3%. The last time we saw such a collapse? June 2008 – Dec 2008. It then fell for 4 more years.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1617219727822319622

    Executives at zilllow discussing the launch of zestimates

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1617360940625965058

    The 1-Month Treasury Bill yield has moved up to 4.69%, its highest level since August 2007. A year ago it was at 0.05%.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1617190353861312516

    2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.77% & median existing home price in the US was $304k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.15% & median existing home price is $367k. Result: $13k increase in down payment (20% down) and 80% increase in monthly payment (from $995 to $1,788).

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1616462001357692929

    The median existing home sale price is down 11% from its peak. After the last housing bubble top, prices fell 33%. The same decline today would only bring prices back to Feb ’20 levels, a reflection of the mania in the last phase of the current bubble: a 40% increase in 2 years.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1616457930345426945

    All bubbles have two things in common, they go much higher than one could imagine and they eventually burst.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1617145953101774848

    Biden’s Garage 🤣

    https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1616970334045114368

    Have stated several times now, Fed is the black swan. Why is it a black swan? Because no one, and the markets don’t believe them. All participants are addicted to the QE drug.

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1617361156347150337

    “The problem isn’t with the choices made by central bankers. The problem is that they possess the power to make any choice at all.” – @RonPaul

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1585065897013964800

    “For most Canadians, rising shelter costs will come at a hefty opportunity cost. For low income Canadians, it represents an impossible dilemma. Market-priced housing will likely never be affordable for a serious share of households.” – Scotiabank (18/01/2022)

    https://twitter.com/TidefallCapital/status/1616857934515867648

    1. This is curious and quaint given I’m the most public detractor of a pivot.

      Wait, huh? She’s been screaming for a pivot.

      2. I had to go back and read some of Danielle’s previous tweets. Apparently is missed the sarcasm in her “why the FED “must” pivot” quotes. She is basically mocking the pivoteers, listing all of the bad data they are relying upon to try to force Powell to pivot.

      1. If 95% of your “job” is attending meetings, and you don’t think you’re vulnerable to being laid off, I bet I can guess what your degree is in.

        1. She will never have a job like that or make that kind of money again. I have a niece who worked at a dot bomb, making more money than her dad. After she was laid off she found nothing even close to the old job. She ended up becoming a school teacher.

          1. If the “tech” workers at google and twitter, who weren’t actual coders but were just on teams that decided things like what is misinformation, were making 200-300k with B.A.s in Critical Race Theory or Women’s Studies, that is ridiculous.

          2. I think that it’s mostly coders who were paid 300K+. I’m sure that the Victims Studies majors were still grossly overpaid. My niece did not have a STEM degree and she was paid handsomely 20+ years ago at some online loan company (moneygator?). I have no idea of what she did, if she was an underwriter or something else. What I do remember is that the music stopped suddenly and there were no chairs and her “experience” was not transferable as no one would hire her. She went back to school and got a teaching credential. This was in the UK.

          3. Marketers (i.e. Product Management) make really good money, are mostly female. However they typically had to go to biz school or even STEM.

      3. One Of The 12k Employees Google Just Laid Off
        She states that the layoffs were random and not performance based. She couldn’t possibly be a low performer could she? I mean, she seemed to eat, drink and relax at least her “fair share” based on the first video.

        1. It is mind boggling how many useless people were hired and paid six figures to do nothing of value, simply because it appeased the woke mob. They will now learn they have no marketable skills and a future in menial jobs awaits them.

  20. Property taxes?

    Specifically, what your property taxes are not paying for.

    New York Post — George Soros spent $40M getting lefty district attorneys, officials elected all over the country (1/22/2023):

    “Biberaj is just one of 75 prosecutors nationwide who were backed by Soros for their pro-criminal bents. After investing more than $40 million into this project, Soros-backed DAs (and their ideological allies) now represent at least one-fifth of Americans.

    That $40 million is a drop in a bucket to the $32 billion that backs his political empire. But by focusing on key local races, Soros is having an outsize impact on people’s lives.

    Flipping a legislature and changing the law is a lot more daunting than just electing one person who refuses to enforce the law. In many cases, Soros’ prosecutors decline to prosecute cases, toss charges or cut lax plea deals — bypassing the statutes on the books.

    So egregious are the actions of the Soros-backed progressives that for the first time in history these prosecutors have become household names — whether it be St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner, who made headlines for persecuting the McCloskeys for defending their home against rioters, Chicago’s Kim Foxx, known for her role in attempting a cover up after actor Jussie Smollett’s hate crime against Jussie Smollett, and the now-recalled Chesa Boudin of San Francisco, the son of 1960s radicals who was raised by terrorist Bill Ayers and effectively legalized shoplifting in the city.”

    https://nypost.com/2023/01/22/george-soros-spent-40m-getting-lefty-district-attorneys-officials-elected-all-over-the-country/

    One fifth of the population live in these district attorneys’ jurisdictions, is that a lot?

    Keep paying those property taxes, slaves.

    1. Soros prosecutors are extremely popular and usually receive vote totals of D+30 or greater. They’ll never be voted out of office, only recalled in off-year recall elections.

  21. Michelle Hayes Thomas with Hayes Homes & Realty said that number dropped to $240,000 in December. After a year or more of it being a seller’s market, things are starting to slow down, allowing buyers to negotiate a little more. ‘The market is stabilizing,’ said Hayes Thomas. ‘It’s good for a healthy market for everyone to have opportunities, both the sellers and the buyers.’”

    Yer going to jail Michelle……. yer going to jail.

    Gainesville, FL Housing Prices Crater 24% YOY As Flurry Of Mortgage Defaults Blanket US Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/gainesville-fl/market-trends/

  22. Hedge-fund billionaire Christopher Hohn has urged Alphabet to widen its job reduction actions to at least 20% of the company, saying 12,000 layoffs are not sufficient enough to reduce the tech giant’s cost base.

    He said that Google staff are overpaid and the 12,000 layoffs, which equate to around 6% of Alphabet’s workforce, should be extended to at least 20%.

    “The 12,000 jobs is a step in the right direction, but it does not even reverse the very strong headcount growth of 2022. Ultimately management will need to go further,” Hohn wrote.

    He suggested that Alphabet cut its workforce to around 150,000, its total headcount at the end of 2021.

    Hohn also called for Google to look into “excessive employee compensation.” The median Alphabet salary in 2021, he says, was nearly $300,000 and the average salary is higher.

    I have former colleagues who took the plunge and went to google, getting six figure pay increases. I wonder if some of them will be asking for their old jobs back?

    Working at a fast growing firm is fun: huge paychecks, bonuses, stock options, RSU’s, parties, etc. It’s all great until the music stops and the panic sets in. Suddenly, those unvested options and RSU’s are vaporware. And sometimes, even if you aren’t dejobbed, your salary could be reduced.

  23. Apparently, the egg shortage is global:

    Eggs have soared in cost around the world over the past year as avian flu decimated chicken flocks and fallout from Russia’s war with Ukraine raised the prices of energy and animal feed.

    In the United States, egg prices have far surpassed the increase in other grocery items, soaring nearly 60% in the 12 months to December compared to the year before. In Japan, wholesale prices have reached a record high.

    In New Zealand, which consumes more eggs per person than most countries, the squeeze has been exacerbated by a change in farming regulations. And rising costs have sparked a frenzy, with people hunting for hens online so they can secure their own supplies of the pantry staple.

    My kingdom for an omelette!

      1. So was Sam’s Club. I wound up paying $8 for 18 eggs at Safeway. There were plenty of eggs at Safeway, which at that price does not surprise me.

        2. I wound up paying $8 for 18 eggs at Safeway.

          Bought earlier today at Walmart, 18x of Eggland’s best for $7.17, and the egg aisle was maybe 30% of capacity.

          2. I live in the Midwest where most eggs are laid and there’s no shortage but they are expensive. I usually just pay the extra $2.50 a dozen for the organics or heritage blue eggs with the golden yolks.

    2. I dont care if it $2 or $7….heck the eggs at the farmer’s market was $6 last summer 2-3 eggs habenero cheese and mushrooms or the beef from last night’s pot roast and all good and cheap. I’ll complain when eggs get to be $1 each.

        1. To be fair, part of the problem is the current avian flu outbreak. That said, eggs won’t be $2 a dozen again (nevermind $1), at least not while they are in charge,

          1. Eggs will crash back down in price, just like garlic, avocados and everything else did. Perishable food cannot sustain bubble pricing.

          2. I can’t ever remembering when eggs were missing from store shelves and I’m 65. No, I’ll blame Brandon.

    3. Saw this on Telegram.

      2013: Bill Gates invests plant-based eggs, poultry, and meat.

      2021: Bill Gates becomes the largest private farmland owner in the US.

      2023: Mass chicken and egg shortages hit American farms.

  25. ‘I think for them, they just wanted a quick sell and for us, we wanted a good price. And so we were able to both be happy in the process,’ Raymond, 28, said. ‘We figure we can refinance within a couple of years and, worst-case scenario, if we don’t, our salaries will catch up.’”

    Lol. Real genius on display there Raymond. “We figure that this six figure purchase will be financially sustainable if two deeply uncertain future conditions are met. What could go wrong?”

    1. “a good price” very likely means 5-10% below the peak. And even with the rate buydown I bet their mortgage payment is 40% higher than it would have been had they bought in early 2022. Oh well it’s only money…

      1. Avg Longmont, CO house is 650k or so, even a condo is 500k. A crapbox is 450k. We’re talking 80 to 100k for a 20% down payment. They didn’t put that down. AT best they used some FHA/VA program and put 3 or 5% down. At best. They had zero equity the minute they signed the papers BEFORE prices went down again.

        1. NVM misread your reply thought you said down payment not monthly payment. Point still stands though, just has nothing to do with your reply. sorry.

  28. Now that the Fed is hinting they may soon curtail interest rate hikes, are recession concerns moot?

    1. Updated Mon, Jan 23 2023 2:52 PM EST
      Dow gains 100 points to start the week as investors weigh next Fed rate move
      Samantha Subin
      Tanaya Macheel
      Citi’s Kristen Bitterly: Recent equity rally only compels Fed to step up hawkish rhetoric

      Stocks rose Monday as investors contemplated a potential slowdown in rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and braced for a busy week of earnings.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 120 points, or 0.4%, after rising more than 400 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 added 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.5%.

      Semiconductor stocks and shares of Tesla and Apple gained on hopes that a reopening in China would boost their businesses. Both big tech names recently grappled with temporary shutdowns and blows to production as the country dealt with surging Covid-19 cases.

      Investors have begun weighing the possibility that the Fed is preparing to slow the pace of its inflation-fighting rate hikes after months of aggressive tightening. Economic data released last week showed a decline in wholesale prices and retail sales. That, and commentary from central bank officials, seemed to signal a slowdown.

      Remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller Friday seeming to favor a quarter percentage point rate increase at the next meeting lifted investors’ hopes for a downshift. A Wall Street Journal report Sunday raised the possibility of a spring pause to rate increases — a sign that the Fed could be nearing the end of its rate hiking campaign.

      “Bulls are running with the near-term momentum, the ‘soft landing’ narrative, and it’s hard to argue with recent price action,” wrote Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG’s chief market technician in a note Monday. “On the other hand, long term trends are still somewhat bearish, and we are always skeptical of such a widely watched ‘breakout’, especially after big run.”

      Markets have priced in a nearly 100% chance of a 25-basis point hike, according to CME Group data, which would bring the interest rate to a targeted range of 4.5%-4.75%.

      Earnings reports could keep the market on edge this week, with about 40% of the Dow scheduled to release their latest financial results and offer more insight into how companies are weathering inflation and interest rates. Some big names on deck include Microsoft, IBM, Tesla, Visa and Mastercard.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/22/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

      1. Dow gains 100 points to start the week as investors weigh next Fed rate move

        NASDAQ up 2%. This week should be interesting.

      2. Remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller Friday seeming to favor a quarter percentage point rate increase at the next meeting lifted investors’ hopes for a downshift.

        They already downshifted, and the market already rallied because of it.

    2. Stocks are about to crash as the ‘perfect bull market cocktail’ of the last 4 decades ends, veteran investment chief says
      Phil Rosen
      Jan 23, 2023, 6:48 AM
      Stock market NYSE floor sweep
      NEW YORK – OCTOBER 30: A worker sweeps the floor of the New York Stock Exchange after the closing bell October 30, 2009 in New York City. The Dow finished down 249.85 points to close at 9712.73
      Mario Tama/Getty Images

      – In an interview with Insider, Gateway Credit chief investment officer Tim Gramatovich said stock valuations will crater in 2023.
      – Demographics and policy are becoming less favorable for productivity, and that could drag on markets, he explained.
      – “We had the perfect bull market cocktail starting in the early 1980s, incredibly low valuations and the beginning of globalization and all its benefits — huge growth, low costs.”
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-market-outlook-crash-veteran-investment-chief-officer-economy-finance-2023-1

    3. Economic barometer warns that a US recession could come soon
      By Alicia Wallace, CNN
      Updated 11:29 AM EST, Mon January 23, 2023

      Minneapolis (CNN) A key barometer for the health of the economy continues to flash a recession warning sign, indicating a downturn is in store for the US in the near future. A growing number of business leaders agree the US economy is getting worse.

      America is not in an official recession — not yet, anyway — but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index declined for the 10th consecutive month, falling in December by 1% to 110.5, according to a report released Monday by the business think tank. Economists were expecting a decline of 0.7%, according to Refinitiv.

      On average, the index peaks about a year ahead of a recession, according to the Conference Board. The index appears to have peaked in February 2022, the Conference Board noted.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/economy/leading-economic-indicators-january/index.html

    4. The Financial Times
      5 hours ago
      US stocks make gains as investors bet on smaller Fed rate rise
      George Steer in London

      US equities rallied on Monday, with investors increasingly confident the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate rises when it meets next week.

      Wall Street’s blue-chip S&P 500 was 1.4 per cent higher in afternoon trading, with all sectors in positive territory. Advanced Micro Devices, Qualcomm and Nvidia advanced 8.5 per cent, 6.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent, respectively, after Barclays upped its price targets for semiconductor groups.

      The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 2.1 per cent. Spotify’s shares jumped as much as 6.4 per cent after the music streamer said it would axe 6 per cent of its workers — the latest in a series of large cuts announced by high-flying technology groups. It later pared gains to 2.4 per cent.

      “The market’s taking a risk-on approach at the moment, viewing that we’re going to have a soft landing and a more positive outlook for rates and inflation,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton. On Monday’s strong gains for chipmakers, “Barclays’ note has been quite influential,” Birrell added. “They’ve been big bears, so to turn positive is a big shift.”

      The moves come after Fed governor Christopher Waller last week threw his weight behind a 0.25 percentage point interest rate rise at the US central bank’s next policy meeting in early February, even as he warned there was a “considerable way to go” before inflation fell back to 2 per cent. The Fed lifted borrowing costs by half a point at its previous meeting in December.
      …

    5. Fear & Greed Index
      More layoffs are on the way, survey of business economists finds
      By Matt Egan, CNN
      Published 12:24 PM EST, Mon January 23, 2023

      New York CNN —

      For the first time since the early days of the pandemic, most business economists expect their companies to cut payrolls in the coming months, according to a new survey released Monday.

      Just 12% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) anticipate employment will increase at their firms over the next three months, down from 22% this fall.

      The share of economists expecting payrolls will decline at their companies ticked up to 19%, according to the survey, which was conducted January 4 to January 11.

      NABE said this is the first time since 2020 that more respondents anticipate shrinking, rather than growing, employment at their firms.

      The findings indicate “widespread concern about entering a recession this year,” Julia Coronado, president of NABE and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, said in the report.

      The survey found that slightly more than half of the business economists who responded peg the risk of a recession over the next year at 50% or higher, with the biggest risks including higher interest rates and costs.

      A flurry of layoffs have hit the economy in recent weeks, including ones announced on Monday by Spotify and Rubbermaid parent Newell Brands. That follows even deeper job cuts last week by Google owner Alphabet and Microsoft.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/economy/layoffs-nabe/index.html

    6. Yahoo
      Fortune
      The U.S. might be headed for a soft landing, but the world is inching towards a ‘long-lasting slowdown’ that could last at least two years, World Bank president says
      Tristan Bove
      Mon, January 23, 2023 at 11:04 AM PST·6 min read

      As optimism grows that the U.S. economy’s downturn will end with a soft landing or a mild recession, most of the world is bracing for a more severe slump.

      Last year, doom and gloom prevailed, with more than two-thirds of economists forecasting a 2023 U.S. recession. But expectations have since improved amid more evidence of declining inflation and an economy that continues to run relatively smoothly.

      Slightly more than half of U.S. business leaders say the U.S. economy is already in a recession or they expect one to start in the next year, according to a Monday survey conducted by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). While NABE still refers to this number as “elevated,” it represents a decline from the previous poll in October, when 64% of respondents were convinced of a coming recession.
      …
      https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/u-might-headed-soft-landing-190402674.html

    7. World’s top stock strategist says investors are falling into a trap—again
      BY Will Daniel
      January 23, 2023 at 12:27 PM PST

      In late 2021, after three consecutive years of double-digit returns by the S&P 500, many Wall Street strategists were sure the stock market would continue to soar in 2022. But Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist, wasn’t so optimistic. Wilson argued that a combination of “fire and ice”—or rising interest rates and fading economic growth—would hurt stock prices and lead to a challenging year for investors.
      …
      https://fortune.com/2023/01/23/stock-strategist-sp500-trap-investors-morgan-stanley-recession-inflation-economy-earnings-2023-forecast/

    1. There will be an extra 20-30 million more illegals by the end of Brandon’s term than there were when he took office. I have noticed everywhere I go now that it is turning very brown.

    1. The FED and politicians took working class cars away from the working class. That’s not a luxury vehicle, it’s something a teenager/early 20s person would usually drive.

      1. The FED and politicians took working class cars away from the working class

        Next stop: take cars away from the middle class. Of course you can buy a car, but they will all be EV’s, with limited availability. Got $100K for a new car?

    2. 2023 is going to be the year of everybody trying to cash out of everything at peak bubble pricing, but failing.

    3. All up it’s north of $61,000 greenbacks!

      For a car that’s going to fall apart and become a money pit once its warranty expires.

      1. It’s a maintenance intensive vehicle loaded with technology well beyond a shade tree mechanic’s understanding. It’s too bad that the Audi group won’t sell their 2.5-liter, 400-hp, 5-cyl TSi engine to VW’s Golf R works, but some custom shops are already doing it.

    1. Are We in a Housing Recession?
      Leslie Cook – 8h ago

      If the words “housing recession” make your heart skip a beat — and not in a good way — take a deep breath.

      That phrase has become a common way to describe the current housing market — one that in 2022 saw mortgage rates shoot up, buyers retreat and home sales drop off their once-feverish pace. They also bring up memories of the housing crash of the mid-2000s that led to the Great Recession. But today’s market is very different, and despite some dire predictions, a crash is far from certain.

      A housing recession occurs when there is a slowdown in market activity; it’s usually characterized by a decline in housing starts and home sales and an increase in sales contract cancellations, among other factors. According to the National Association of Home Builders, the market has been contracting since last August.

      “The phrase ‘housing recession’ is a lot more scary than what’s happening right now,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist at housing data provider Zonda. Instead, she notes, the market is going through a much-needed contraction that will eventually lead to normalcy after a couple of wild and unsustainable years.

      The monetary policies implemented by the Federal Reserve during the early pandemic caused mortgage rates to hit historic lows, leading to a housing boom unlike any other. Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at real estate startup Haus, likens the market to a patient who received emergency medicine to keep them from dying.

      Alas, it started to get used to feeling better than ever before. And now he says the housing market is less of a failing industry than it is “a patient coming off strong narcotics to keep them from suffering any pain.”

      The result, in experts’ eyes, isn’t a quote-unquote recession — it’s a return to normalcy.
      …
      https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/are-we-in-a-housing-recession/ar-AA16ECg7

      1. “The result, in experts’ eyes, isn’t a quote-unquote recession — it’s a return to normalcy.”

        How many shades of lipstick can you paint on a pig’s lips before you run out of lipstick?

  33. Is it safe to assume the fallout from the FTX collapse is done falling, and it is all blue skies and bluebirds singing from here on out in the cryptoverse?

    1. Martin Young
      3 hours ago
      Ark Invest CEO sees potential crypto rebound amid whiffs of a Fed pivot

      The crypto and innovative tech investment firm is confident that inflation will fall and the Fed will pivot in 2023.

      Ark Invest CEO sees potential crypto rebound amid whiffs of a Fed pivot
      News

      Collect this article as an NFT

      The chief executive from crypto and tech investment firm Ark Invest believes crypto assets will see a huge turnaround this year as inflation falls and the Fed pivots.

      In a company video blog on Jan. 23, Ark Invest CEO and CIO, Cathie Wood, started with a glance at the macroeconomic outlook. She said there was all kind of signals pointing to lower inflation which “suggests that the Fed should pivot soon.”

      This would be beneficial for risk-on assets such as crypto as the macroeconomic outlook improves and financial belts are loosened.

      She added that the firm believes inflation will come down to the 2% Fed target level. However, Wood predicted that inflation could fall below this level and even into negative territory because the money supply has been falling.

      The market is waiting for a signal from the Federal Reserve, she said adding “we think that will come in the first half of 2023.” She said that Ark Invest portfolios should do very well if interest rates are about to fall below expectations.

      Ark has a crypto asset fund, blockchain venture investments, a disruptive innovation fund, and six active technology and fintech-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

      Meanwhile, Ark’s Chief Futurist Brett Winton spoke of artificial intelligence (AI), noting that advances would accelerate in 2023. He also predicted that crypto assets would see a big turnaround this year.
      …
      https://cointelegraph.com/news/ark-invest-ceo-eyes-crypto-turnaround-amid-whiffs-of-a-fed-pivot

    2. The Wall Street Journal
      The Crypto Crisis
      Fallout from FTX
      Crypto-Crash Guide
      A Doomed Empire
      Newsletter Signup
      Cryptocurrency

      Genesis Demise Marks End of Era for Crypto’s Pseudo-Banks
      Risk in crypto-lending sector was poorly managed, subjecting users to heavy losses after epic boom
      Genesis Global Capital and two related units tumbled into bankruptcy on Thursday.Photo: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg News
      By Alexander Osipovich
      Jan. 22, 2023 7:00 am ET

      The late-night bankruptcy filing of Genesis Global Capital LLC last week marked the end of an era for crypto lenders that tried to bring the centuries-old business model of banking to the digital-currency space.

      Many of the biggest names in crypto lending have failed in the past half-year, highlighting the shaky foundations, risky practices and lack of regulation in the sector. Now, millions of depositors who parked savings with such lenders are in limbo as they hope to get back some portion of their money in slow-moving bankruptcy proceedings.
      Caroline Ellison
      A Doomed Empire
      Newsletter Signup

      Cryptocurrency
      Genesis Demise Marks End of Era for Crypto’s Pseudo-Banks
      Risk in crypto-lending sector was poorly managed, subjecting users to heavy losses after epic boom
      Genesis Global Capital and two related units tumbled into bankruptcy on Thursday.
      Photo: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg News
      By Alexander Osipovich
      Jan. 22, 2023 7:00 am ET

      The late-night bankruptcy filing of Genesis Global Capital LLC last week marked the end of an era for crypto lenders that tried to bring the centuries-old business model of banking to the digital-currency space.

      Many of the biggest names in crypto lending have failed in the past half-year, highlighting the shaky foundations, risky practices and lack of regulation in the sector. Now, millions of depositors who parked savings with such lenders are in limbo as they hope to get back some portion of their money in slow-moving bankruptcy proceedings.
      …

    3. Crypto firms go out of business as cryptocurrency collapse continues
      Company officials blame the failure on the low liquidity of the crypto market caused by last November’s collapse of FTX, and other abnormal developments in the industry in recent months
      ANI | Asia Last Updated at January 22 2023 13:19 IST

      US-based cryptocurrency lender Genesis Global Capital became the latest company to file for bankruptcy protection after the collapse of crypto exchange operator FTX, NHK World reported.

      The company, plus its subsidiaries filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with a US court on Thursday.

      Company officials blame the failure on the low liquidity of the crypto market caused by last November’s collapse of FTX, and other abnormal developments in the industry in recent months, NHK World reported.

      According to the documents shown by the court, Genesis Global Capital has debt, between one to ten billion dollars and creditors numbering more than 100,000.

      Crypto lender Blockfi also filed for bankruptcy protection in November.

      Leading crypto exchange operator Coinbase halted its Japanese operations this month, citing the poor business environment, as per NHK World.

      According to Al Jazeera, the company in a statement stated, “Genesis has taken strategic actions to achieve a global resolution to maximize value for all clients and stakeholders and strengthen its business for the future.”

      Genesis added that its subsidiaries involved in the derivatives, spot trading and custody businesses, as well as its brokerage arm Genesis Global Trading, were not included in the filing and would continue operations.

      Earlier, in November, Genesis halted the customer withdrawals after the downfall of FTX and even negotiated with the creditors and tried to secure fresh capital since.

      The crypto lender earlier this month laid off 30 per cent of its staff, the Wall Street Journal reported.

      Genesis’ owner DCG said in a statement that neither DCG nor its employees, including those sitting on the Genesis board, were involved in the decision to file for bankruptcy, reported Al Jazeera.

      “Genesis has its own independent management team, legal counsel, and financial advisors, and appointed a special committee of independent directors, who are in charge of the Genesis Capital restructuring,” the statement said.
      …
      https://wap.business-standard.com/article/international/crypto-firms-go-out-of-business-as-cryptocurrency-collapse-continues-123012200187_1.html

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