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If I’m Losing Money, What Am I Gaining By Losing?

A report from the South Haven Tribune. “People in the South Haven area who want to earn extra income by renting their homes to vacationers may want to reconsider their options. According to a study, the short-term rental market in Southwest Michigan appears to be experiencing a mild bust. The study, conducted by the Ann Arbor-based CEO Host, reviewed revenue data from 2021 and 2022 in 34 communities along the West Michigan lakeshore, from New Buffalo north to Frankfurt and found that overall, revenue remained steady. However, the number of available properties jumped nearly 65 percent.”

“‘With stable demand, revenue flat and supply up over 64 percent, it’s clear that West Michigan has not escaped the short-term rental bubble burst,’ said Kate Stoermer, founder of The CEO Host, an education and consulting company for short-term rental owners and businesses. Even though South Haven is considered the largest STR market along the lakeshore, overall revenue from 2021 to 2022 decreased by 5 percent. This comes at a time when the number of rentals in South Haven nearly doubled from 535 in the first quarter of 2021 to 903 at the end of 2022. ‘Unfortunately, for a lot of investors who leveraged buying with a mortgage in the last two years – their expenses may well be higher than their rental income and some investors are certainly already considering or looking to sell,’ she said.”

From Realtor.com. “The supply of homes for sale has rebounded with a bang. January marked a whopping 65% more real estate listings than this same month a year earlier, according to a recent inventory report from Realtor.com®. And while home prices are still up year over year, they’ve declined from the pandemic peak. January’s median home list price clocked in at $400,000—holding steady since December but much lower than June’s record high of $449,000.”

“Three things—lower mortgage rates, stabilizing home prices, and a glut of listings—spell a long overdue opportunity for homebuyers to jump into the market and snag a deal. ‘Fresh listings are a new opportunity for buyers because they might mean they will better fit the needs and budget of potential buyers,’ says Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com. However, she urges buyers to give those long-in-the-tooth listings another look, since this is where sellers might be desperate enough to lower their price.”

Business Insider on Arizona. “Booms do often end in busts. And as Phoenix’s housing market performs an about-face from the dramatic rise it witnessed from spring 2020 to summer 2022, experts across the country are debating the possibility of the whole market imploding. According to sale-price data from Realtor.com, the Phoenix market saw a median peak price of $470,000 last May, but subsequently fell by nearly 13% to $410,000 by December. And as of January 2023, area home sales are down 74% year-over-year, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting.”

“Another factor at play is the sheer number of home-builder cancellations in Phoenix. Data from John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows that as of January 2023, 44.7% of homebuilders’ net sales had been canceled, up a whopping 496% from January of last year. ‘For builders, unsold inventory costs them money every day they’re sitting vacant on the lot,’ Barry Cox, the vice president of consulting at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, told Insider. ‘So we’ve seen price declines on new home sales in a number of markets since mortgage rates ballooned last year.'”

From Fortune. “That sharp buyer pullback comes at a less than ideal time for U.S. homebuilders. See, a combination of pandemic-related supply chain constraints and a surplus of eager buyers during the boom, saw the total number of units under construction reach historic levels last year. And that historic backlog, along with spiked cancellation rates, means buyers finally have some negotiating power over builders. Unlike homeowners—who are less likely to give up the equity they have—builders are just dropping profit. ‘For builders, it’s a business,’ said John Downs, a certified mortgage advisor. ‘Which is very different than regular homeowners where it’s their network savings. So for a builder, it’s just a raw business decision—am I still making money? And if I’m losing, what am I gaining by losing?'”

“As for home improvements or upgrades, builders sometimes use the fact that ‘they can build stuff cheaper and the perceived value is bigger,’ Downs told Fortune. He gave an example: if a buyer is quoted $50,000 to build a patio but the builder could do it for $15,000—as a consumer it checks out, and the builder basically uses ‘inflated values to give the perception of bigger savings.'”

The Napa Valley Register. “California’s median home price remained on a downward trend for the fourth straight month and has been down on a monthly basis in six of the last seven months. December’s price also was lower on a year-over-year basis for the second consecutive month. ‘While depressed inventory will preclude major price declines beyond the 8.8% we forecast for this year, it will also slow sales growth and prevent the housing market from having a rapid recovery,’ said CAR chief economist Jordan Levine.”

“A listing Realtor Zack Sperow has at 2425 Kiess Barn Place near Linda Vista Avenue in Napa was originally priced at $979,000. Sperow said one couple hoped to buy it earlier in 2022 but after mortgage interest rates rose again, they realized their monthly payment (including taxes) would be about $6,800. Their response? ‘No way.’ They’d continue to rent, and for much less money, they told Sperow. The Kiess Barn house was delisted for several months and recently put back on the market, this time for $939,000. As of Wednesday, Sperow had at least one offer.”

“The number of homes sold in Napa County in 2022 declined 27%, dropping from 1,594 sold in 2021 to 1,166 in 2022. That’s the lowest number of local homes sold since 2008.”

Skilled Nursing News. “Operators looking for financing in 2023 will find it much more challenging on the equity side, noted Brendan Healy, senior managing director with VIUM Capital, again with inflation, high labor costs and unfavorable short-term rates creating less than stellar returns. On the debt side, Healy has seen a lot of reluctance in the fourth quarter of 2022 from financing sources, also driven by rising interest rates. Medicaid rebasing serves as a silver lining into this year, he noted, but for many, it hasn’t happened yet.”

“‘That cash flow is not going to be coming into a lot of states until probably the second half of the year,’ said Healy. ‘The math isn’t there for the buyers and it’s not there for the sellers, either, because they know they’re not going to get the values they want.'”

Insauga in Canada. “Zoocasa says that significantly more houses hit the market in Mississauga in January 2023 compared to December 2022. Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) indicates that 634 homes were listed, up 89 per cent from the 335 that hit the market at the end of last year. As for the GTA overall, home sales are down year-over-year, with 3,100 sales reported in January–down 44.6 per cent from January 2022. The average selling price for January 2023 sat at $1,038,668, down 16.4 per cent compared to the average price recorded in January 2022.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “7790 264 St., Langley, B.C. Asking price: $5-million (Dec. 9, 2022). Previous asking price: $6.2 million (March 2, 2022). Selling price: $5-million (Jan. 6, 2023). Days on market: 282. The property went on the market on March 2, 2022 at $6.2-million and although the seller received offers, they were too low. The seller pulled it off the market and continued to receive inquiries, so it was relisted Dec. 9 at a firm $5-million. It quickly received three offers. The buyer is a young local family that fell in love with the house and its privacy, listing agent Paul Hague says. ‘All sellers were challenged with releasing their properties because they still thought they were in a sellers’ market,’ he says.”

News.com.au in Australia. “A retired baby boomer has sparked outrage after suggesting to young people that they give up eating out and updating their mobile phones so they can afford to buy a home. Sydney 68-year-old Kerrie Boylett claimed it was ‘practically impossible’ to be approved for a home loan in 1995 as a single mum because interest rates were so high. In an interview with the ABC on Monday, Ms Boylett said one lender eventually agreed to loan her the money so she could buy her first home in the Sydney beachside suburb of Coogee for $150,000 with a 15 per cent deposit.”

“It was Ms Boylett’s advice for Millennials that truly sparked uproar, as she suggested young people give up holidays, nights out and buying new technology so they can get onto the property ladder. ‘They (Millennials) want, you know, the latest mobile phone, the latest iPad, they want a nice car, they want to go on holidays, they still want to go out to restaurants — they pay $20 or $30 for a drink if they go out, have a nice time,’ she said. ‘You’ve got to say: ‘Right, am I prepared to keep my phone for four years? Am I prepared to cut back?'”

“In 1995, the median house price was about 6.7 times higher than the median single income. In 2022, it was 16.5 times more. The median price for a house in Coogee — where Ms Boylett bought her first home for just $150,000 — has soared to a staggering $3.7 million. Units sell for an average of $1.32 million.”

“‘My (heart) is now in pieces for this woman who struggled for a whole five years in the 1990s after buying a house for $150,000 in Coogee with 19% interest rates,’ journalist and author Amy Remeikis tweeted. ‘She’s absolutely right — my phone is the reason I can’t afford to buy and not that homes are about $1m.’ ‘Yeah I’ll take 19% interest on a $100,000 home over 8% on a $1,000,000 mortgage on the same house any day,’ wrote a third.”

Related Posts

Inventory Surges And Prices Decline

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNejotELztU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFqbPQixN9M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8MdD64eNQ8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkOx1nH4-Ic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMfsqe9biiQ

This Post Has 135 Comments

  1. ‘Unfortunately, for a lot of investors who leveraged buying with a mortgage in the last two years – their expenses may well be higher than their rental income’

    As we learned long ago, the guberment is subsidizing STR loans. Well they’re fooked now.

  2. they can build stuff cheaper and the perceived value is bigger,’ Downs told Fortune. He gave an example: if a buyer is quoted $50,000 to build a patio but the builder could do it for $15,000—as a consumer it checks out, and the builder basically uses ‘inflated values to give the perception of bigger savings’

    Open discussion of cheating people and loan fraud. Check!

  3. ‘A listing Realtor Zack Sperow has at 2425 Kiess Barn Place near Linda Vista Avenue in Napa was originally priced at $979,000…The Kiess Barn house was delisted for several months and recently put back on the market, this time for $939,000’

    Yer giving it away Zach. The Register went out of their way to avoid disclosing the price crater. Speaking of:

    ‘TRREB data indicates that the average price of a detached house in the city hit $1,379,588 in January’

    The graph shows a high YOY of 1,741,000 K-dn pesos. Looks like the peak was last March so more crater to come.

    This is another thing I’m seeing:

    ‘Zoocasa says that significantly more houses hit the market in Mississauga in January 2023 compared to December 2022. Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) indicates that 634 homes were listed, up 89 per cent from the 335 that hit the market at the end of last year’

    Don’t everybody head for the exits at once!

    1. “Sperow said one couple hoped to buy it earlier in 2022 but after mortgage interest rates rose again, they realized their monthly payment (including taxes) would be about $6,800.“

      Wow, just imagine a $7k month nut?

      1. 6k mortgage, 2k a month or more for two car payments as a starting point. You’re living on rice and beans if you make 150k+ a month! Welcome to the new normal where lunacy prevails.

        1. I’ve been raising a family of four in flyover country on roughly $120k/yr before taxes and health insurance. No new cars, but nice used ones, out of pocket dental with braces, summer camps, smartphones, etc., and I still managed to pay-off the 1,500-sqft spec house before the college bills ensued. Incredibly, most of our town earns much less than I was pulling down as an engineer, but we’re surrounded by King Ranch diesel pickups.

  4. ‘Three things—lower mortgage rates, stabilizing home prices, and a glut of listings’

    Shortage, Shortage, GLUT!

    ‘she urges buyers to give those long-in-the-tooth listings another look, since this is where sellers might be desperate enough to lower their price’

    That’s the spirit Danielle, kick em while they’re down!

    1. “Three things—lower mortgage rates, stabilizing home prices, and a glut of listings—spell a long overdue opportunity for homebuyers to jump into the market and snag a deal.”

      – Realtor-speak. Caveat emptor.
      – 30 yr. mortgage rate back up to 6.19% today after employment report last Fri. Lower mortgage rates indeed.
      – House prices are falling, not stabilizing.
      – Glut of listings (+ weak demand + continuing lack of affordable housing) points to continued price declines.
      – No, it’s not a good time to buy.
      – Narrative shredded in 30 seconds.
      – Realtors are sales persons. Who you gonna believe, me or your lyin’ eyes?
      – Running with scissors. Catching a falling knife. Buying houses on the way down. Things to be avoided.

      1. It went up another .20% today. Avg 30 year mortgage 4.39% (MND 2/6)

        that’s 40 basis points in 2 days Hope everyone locked in their 5.99 rate last thursday…………………..

  5. According to a study, the short-term rental market in Southwest Michigan appears to be experiencing a mild bust.

    Die, speculator scum.

  6. “The supply of homes for sale has rebounded with a bang. January marked a whopping 65% more real estate listings than this same month a year earlier, according to a recent inventory report from Realtor.com®.

    But…but…muh inventory shortage!

  7. “Three things—lower mortgage rates, stabilizing home prices, and a glut of listings—spell a long overdue opportunity for homebuyers to jump into the market and snag a deal.

    Go ahead, stoopids…catch that falling knife. Ima gonna sit tight in my lawn chair & wait for the sawin’ and slashin’ to begin in earnest.

  8. Data from John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows that as of January 2023, 44.7% of homebuilders’ net sales had been canceled, up a whopping 496% from January of last year.

    Is that a lot?

        1. So tired of dealing with people/friends who think masks and the jabs actually do anything when there’s plenty of evidence to the contrary.

    1. As the Scamdemic showed us, the masses will believe what they are told. If they are told the monetary policies have nothing to do with rent hikes, they will believe it.

    1. Did Boo Randy change his name to Francis Sawyer/Soyer? I suspected it before the Daily Mail link but that link really solidifies my suspicion.

        1. Just taking some notes for Yoel Roth to keep him up to date on any blog posters to keep an eye on.

          #OnlineSafety

  18. 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗵𝗮𝗺, 𝗠𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟰% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗕𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗽𝘀 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗔 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸

    https://www.movoto.com/framingham-ma/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘢 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘣𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘦𝘥, “𝘉𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘱𝘢𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘪𝘶𝘮𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘢 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘥𝘦. 𝘠𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘤, 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘱𝘢𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘪𝘱𝘦𝘳.”

  19. A reader sent these in:

    30-Year Mortgage Rates Over Time. The average since 1971 is 7.75% and the median is 7.43%.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAG

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1616476809910157313

    Scott Rechler, chief executive of property developer RXR, is preparing to “give the keys back to the bank.” “The amount of development projects that we’re hearing about around the country that are stopping is mind-blowing.”

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1621956697731354630

    “Every single adjustment to CPI calculation has ended up with a lower CPI. No one has ever adjusted it and come up with a higher number. So, we, we know what the adjustments are there for.” – Grant Williams

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1616152522426830848

    Airbnb checkout has somehow devolved into this: Pay me $300-500 for a cleaning fee but then clean the place spotless before you hit the road.

    https://twitter.com/schlaf/status/1622305192979927040

    If you were starting with the customer experience, would you show a price that almost doubles at the checkout page?

    https://twitter.com/pitdesi/status/1579138509449097221

    I wonder what would happen if more young people realized the SOLE REASON they don’t have cheap houses and cars was government/federal reserve interest rate manipulation, not because they don’t work hard enough or order avocado toast.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1622350982750535681

    Hope Springs Eternal in the USA. Today, yesterday, and always

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1622370455565881344

    Me: “What do you think about this house, down to $800,000.”
    Wife: “What did they want originally”
    Me: “$1.2m, paid $580k three years ago”
    Wife: “Oh they can f*ck right off.”
    I knew I got a good one.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1622364362735505408

    The housing market is already plummeting with unemployment at a 53-year low, imagine the catastrophic consequences when unemployment begins to surge. The situation could even get more dire than the 2008 housing crisis, if not equal to it.

    https://twitter.com/MFHoz/status/1622307569191751680

    The rate hikes will decimate the economy as many face expiring fixed mortgage rates, leading to significantly increased monthly payments. This will put a heavy strain on households as they will have to pay three times their current mortgage amount. Soft landing? Don’t think so.

    https://twitter.com/MFHoz/status/1622309330954649602

    Cyberjunk..at least wheels are not squared

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1622029191574355968

    Bloomberg: The Bank of England signals the worst year of growth since the Great Depression.

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1621796074166927360

    2.5% by early summer… #bigflip is going to blow so many people up.

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1622283465386237952

    The Canadian press story treatment…
    Gambler in front of casino – meh you gambled and lost
    Drunk in front of bar – you made bad life choices
    Speculator in front of house… pearl clutching, the humanity, who is to blame for this?

    https://twitter.com/steve_joco/status/1621971437534826498

    I’ll Tweet it slowly so everyone can read it…There have never been more houses per capita than now. No shortage of total houses. Affordability crisis, YES. But not due to lack of building.

    https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1621018932885979136

    Helped ruin the housing market by further incentivizing multi-property ownership just for Airbnbs. The whole business model and the people who participated in it can burn for all I care. You wanna run a BnB outta your own home, fine, but ppl don’t need to own 10 homes.

    https://twitter.com/RexHatesTweets/status/1620456543178346497

    John Burns

    New homes priced below $200K are now 0% of the market. They were 40% of the market one decade ago. $500K+ homes have grown from 17% of the market to 38% of the market during Covid. Expect both of these trends to reverse this year.

    https://twitter.com/johnburnsjbrec/status/1620407202497298433

    1. “I wonder what would happen if more young people realized the SOLE REASON they don’t have cheap houses and cars was government/federal reserve interest rate manipulation, not because they don’t work hard enough or order avocado toast.“

      – Fact check: True!
      – The wealth transfer from what’s left of the middle class to the looters and moochers continues apace.
      – Your gooberment and their agent the Fed aren’t your friend.
      – Few understand this.
      – Only possible with fiat and inflation. It’s theft.

        1. We will not have sound money, honest markets, or a future for our children as long as this criminal private banking cartel controls our money issuance.

        2. “End. The. Fed.”

          Do you want double digit lending rates for decades? I sure do.

          End the fed.

      2. UNTRUE – there are a lot of other reasons, too, including government regulations (various auto mandates, zoning, fees for new houses, etc). But, yes, low interest rates and lots of liquidity have really distorted markets, especially for housing.

        2. “UNTRUE – there are a lot of other reasons, too, including government regulations (various auto mandates, zoning, fees for new houses, etc).”

          – These are 2nd order effects in my view.
          – The Fed blows (asset bubbles).
          – Centrally-planned, command and control economics by an unelected and unaccountable Politburo / Gosplan got us into this mess, also in my view, and won’t get us out of it.
          – Free markets, I hardly knew ya!
          – The Fed since 1913 – “Doing the most harm.”

          1. fractional reserve banking

            That hasn’t been around for a very long time. It’s essentially no reserve banking.

    2. On the John Burns chart, the decrease of the fraction of sub-$200K has been falling steadily since 2010, so going to 0 is not unexpected.

      But I’m looking at two other interesting trends:
      1. Fraction of $500K jumping up sharply in 2021
      2. Fraction of $200K-$300K dipping down sharply in 2021.
      Almost in concert.

      I think it’s a combo of two factors:
      1. Mix problem — Builders completed a bunches of condo complexes and shifted to building more expensive SFH. Hence the increase in $500K+.
      2. Inflation — those same condos crossed from $295K to ~$329K. Hence the decrease in $200-$300K.

    3. “The worst is behind us” tweet is worth a comment. During the last bubble it is interesting to note that the fed starting raising rates in 2004 and finished their raising cycle in mid 2006 a full two years before the markets crashed. “The worst” hasn’t even started yet. This is a process that takes quite a while to resolve itself. That said, we are getting closer to seeing some actual consequences but the real celebrations are still a ways away. It takes a while to grind the speculators into bankruptcy. Be patient my friends, it is coming as surely as day follows night.

      We are still in the denial phase.

    4. Pay me $300-500 for a cleaning fee but then clean the place spotless before you hit the road.

      Or bad review for you! I hate EVERYTHING about Airbnb. And, I’ve only used it twice because of no other choice.

    1. That site was one of those who said we need to accept that a senile, corrupt pedophile who couldn’t fill a phone booth the day before the election got 81 million votes. Along with Mike Huckabee and Ben Shapiro among others.

      1. Joe Biden and his Son are blatant treasonous crooks. .I have never seen such a pair of mentally ill perverted criminal mentality spoiled brats . Joe Biden is a pathological liar, and greedy crook and sexual misfit. .. Joe Biden is a compromised and black-mail-able Puppet our enemy put in by. a rigged election to advance One World Order take over…

        WEF , China and the United Nations /WHO are engaged with Foundations like Gates and Rockerfeller Foundations , Rich Elites etc. in
        a take over of a One World Order /Great Reset dictorship.
        And our captured Federal Goverment won’t take this Biden creep out

  23. Thailand is going to be the first County that declares the Pflizer Vaccine Contract null and void and sue for damages.
    Apparently the daughter of the King of Thailand had a heart attack and has been in a coma for weeks after taking the booster shot.

    1. I am curious about how GloboHomo will react to this. Will they just ignore and memory hole it, or will they insist that the Thais are wrong and reaffirm that the jab is 100% safe and effective?

      1. India prevented many CCP Flu deaths by mailing medical packets including Ivermectin to its poorest citizens.

        Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest rates of “vaccination” on the planet and they’re all still alive.

        It’s primarily white people (and the Japanese) who are dying from these “vaccines” and the globalists planned this for a reason.

        Yuval Harari could not be reached for comment…

        1. Question: Perhaps my memory is hazy, but I seem to recall that you got the first two jabs. Please correct me if I am wrong.

          2. Yes, he got two Pfizer vaccines so he could continue to do electrical work. I’m happy that he appears to be ok so far.

      2. Many of these rich folks with hand maidens never get any exercise, so their liver must resemble foie gras.

        1. Bill Gates looks the part. But many CEOs and billionaires are skinny as a rail, and probably have a full time physical trainer/nutritionist whose job is to keep them from getting fat.

          1. you misspelled good a good pharmaceutical supplement program.

            You don’t really think these actors put on 40lbs of muscle in 5 months do you?

            The rich and famous have access to many many things that us plebs don’t. They only banned this stuff cuz it works and they want to be special.

          2. Bezos looks like he’s on the bean. But a lot of the richies look more like Larry Ellison: thin and scrawny,

          3. Here’s why celebrities are so thin:

            1. Muscles <– steroids
            Skinny <– coke
            2. Selection bias: You only see the thin ones. The 40+ and the plump stay out of the public eye. Why didn't Kelly McGillis reprise her role in Top Gun Maverick? She got old and fat.
            3. Old pix. Anyone else notice that celebrity pix are all 5+ years old?
            Somebody snapped some pix of Britney Spears during the pandemic, and she looked so heavy and dowdy and thunder-thighed — my guess is 20+ pounds. Hell, just recently I was in Macy's and saw a Johnny Depp print ad for Sauvage perfume. Depp looks massively sexy and handsome, nothing like the fat-face that took the stand in defamation trial. Oh, wait, that ad campaign was from 2008.

            Ugh. I guess it’s satisfying to know that nobody escapes Father Time.

  25. ‘She’s absolutely right — my phone is the reason I can’t afford to buy and not that homes are about $1m.’ ‘Yeah I’ll take 19% interest on a $100,000 home over 8% on a $1,000,000 mortgage on the same house any day,’

    Interesting developments down under. Millennial bashers getting some serious pushback, and people starting to focus on the loan principal amount rather than the monthly payment. Could we be witnessing the dawn of an Australian Renaissance?

    1. I hope we’ll see a general Aussie wake-up and shake-up. Surely they’re not going to forget those COVID concentration camps.

      1. Surely they’re not going to forget those COVID concentration camps.

        Forget them? Most Aussies approved of them. Heck, they voted for even more Leftism on their last election.

        Don’t get me wrong. I would love to see a global great awakening. There are sparks of it in places like Thailand; but I’m not holding my breath.

  27. “It was Ms Boylett’s advice for Millennials that truly sparked uproar, as she suggested young people give up holidays, nights out and buying new technology so they can get onto the property ladder. ‘They (Millennials) want, you know, the latest mobile phone, the latest iPad, they want a nice car, they want to go on holidays, they still want to go out to restaurants — they pay $20 or $30 for a drink if they go out, have a nice time,’ she said. ‘You’ve got to say: ‘Right, am I prepared to keep my phone for four years? Am I prepared to cut back?’”

    Millennial here. I don’t give a crap about the latest tech. I’ve been using my current phone for at least 3 years perhaps even longer. I know I bought it at least a year before I got married in 2021. The problem is forced obsoletion. I’d bought similar phones before only to have them forced out of working within a year or two. I buy simple Motorola phones- not exactly the most expensive phones out there.

    My husband and I get take out once a week. The rest of the week my husband and I do all the cooking. I hardly think ordering Chinese take out once a week is the reason we are not able to buy a house.

    I guess we are spendy little rich batches since my husband took me out for Valentines Day a little early and he bought me Indian food (my favorite). We’re SOOOO spendy that he buys it for me once a year.

    I am so sick of this narrative. I want people to push back and push back hard. I’m sure there are irresponsible Millennials- especially the ones who took out enormous mortgages just because interest rates were low, but there are plenty of us laying low and playing the self-denial long game.

      1. Uh no. I’ve been debt free since I was 23 (I had a few small student loans) and saving for a house since then. This isn’t anything new.

    2. I am so sick of this narrative. I want people to push back and push back hard.

      This seems to be trending. I’ve seen equal collective animosity towards Boomers. Blogger Vox Day even calls for “the day of the pillow”, where he not so subtly suggests that caregivers should suffocate nursing home Boomers. And when Zoomers come of age I expect GenX, Millenials and the Boomers who are still around to dump on them,

    3. Generational warfare is no different than political warfare – it keeps people at each others’ throats and takes their eyes off the real villains. Every generation has good and bad.

      Remember that over 50% of Boomers have less than $50,000 saved for retirement. At the same time, there are Millennials who own a dozen Airbnbs. Things are not always as they are portrayed in the media.

  28. ‘You’ve got to say: ‘Right, am I prepared to keep my phone for four years? Am I prepared to cut back?’”

    I genuinely despise when old people with zero understanding of basic math run their mouths at people my age.

    2. How do you feel when people your own age run their mouth and say the same ridiculous things? Is it different?

      1. One thing worth noting is that conservative Boomers will scream at Millennials for being more Socialism minded while they are set on relying on SSI and government pensions to make it through retirement.

        I think Millennials are at least more consistent in that area.

        1. Is it likely that SS is underfunded and will have to cut back payouts? Yup, it is. But given the fatpocalypse and the now 200 million Americans who have the spike protein flowing in their bloodstream, maybe fewer will be collecting anything at all. Yeah, the fats can collect SSDI before turning 62, but I’ll wager they will collect it for a far shorter period than those who are healthy.

          Anecdote: Participation in Mexico’s social security system (IMSS) which covers both socialized healthcare and retirement pensions, is voluntary. You can choose to not participate and have nothing withheld from your paycheck. Many do opt for it, mostly for the healthcare, which is decidedly mediocre, but better than the care in the free government clinics and hospitals. There is also a separate system for gooberment workers known as ISSSTE. In addition to hospitals and pensions, ISSSTE operates subsidized supermarkets for its members and even vacation resorts, like the one in Oaxtepec.

          The pension for most is a pittance, about $100-200 USD per month, though high earners who participate can get thousands per month.

          1. Participation in Mexico’s social security system (IMSS) which covers both socialized healthcare and retirement pensions, is voluntary.

            Interesting, I will look into this.

      2. I can’t recall situations where folks my age run their mouths on media platforms saying things like if old people just stopped owning a smartphone or eating in a restaurant they wouldn’t need to demand things like increased Medicare payments.

        Maybe you can provide some examples of young folks running their mouths this way.

        1. According to some millenials all boomers are selfish millionaires who don’t want to share the wealth. YMMV.

        3. just stopped owning a smartphone

          Ironically, it is true that a smartphone is not a necessity, rather an expensive luxury. We know that for sure because we spent most of our lives without one.

          My grandmother thought that owning a car was a luxury and not a necessity. She knew that for sure because she lived 100 years without one. She never lectured anyone about it though, because others occasionally gave her a ride.

          I have a gold Half Shilling that her mother put in her hand when she was leaving for America with the words “As long as you keep this, you will never be broke.” She gave it to me with the same words. She was right!

  29. “December’s price also was lower on a year-over-year basis for the second consecutive month.”

    Get used to it, as we are in the first inning.

    “‘While depressed inventory will preclude major price declines beyond the 8.8% we forecast for this year, it will also slow sales growth and prevent the housing market from having a rapid recovery,’ said CAR chief economist Jordan Levine.”

    Prices are already down by over 10% since last May in many of the major coastal markets, including San Diego.

  30. [from the youtube linkl post]
    wow – official govt report. 20% of all properties are ‘investment’ and 40% of condos in Ontario. what crazy levels of speculation.

    Condominium apartments were used as an investment more often than houses (single-detached houses, semi-detached houses, row houses, and mobile homes). Ontario topped the list with the highest rate of condominium apartments used as an investment, at 41.9%.

  32. “spell a long overdue opportunity for homebuyers to jump into the market and snag a deal.”

    Jump into the market?
    Snag a deal?
    Snag?
    a deal?

    Who writes this utter trash.
    Buying a HOME to live in requires thoughtful consideration — among other time consuming considerations.

    My God like buying some cheap dime storegadget for a one time use.

    Realtors are disgusting.

    1. We live in the snag culture.

      I know someone who bought a new $1000+ TV on pure impulse, because “it was a good deal”. His current Jumbotron works just fine and has good picture quality. Of course, the new one is better. But he couldn’t wait for the current one to give up the ghost, because he “snagged a deal”.

      2. I mostly use my TeeVee to hang freshly washed wool socks on to dry.

        Watched a few episodes of Ken Burns’ The Civil War recently, but other than that mostly drying socks. Who needs TeeVee when you’ve got Bitchute and Rumble?

        1. Months ago I tossed my larger TV. Too many damn wires and I never watched it anyway. I actually get more enjoyment out of the decluttered room that the TV left behind, than anything that was on the TV itself. I still have my very old 2009 19″ to watch DVDs.

      3. A $1000 tv is minor these days. The newest oled tvs are amazing It costs Less than a new iPhone or ultra book. Relatively inexpensive compared to everting else.

        I’m currently looking for a new car these days. Anything suv for a larger family, not considered junk, is nearly that much a month.

        Going out for pizza and drinks costs my family nearly $100 with taxes and a tip.

        1. Going out for pizza

          My kids used to love pizza night at our house. They’d invite their friends over and I’d make pizza until there were no more takers. That seems like a long time ago, but every once in a while one of those kids, now an adult, says Hey Mr. Blue to me in town.

        2. A $1000 tv is minor these days.

          Sure, you can spend more. I was told this was a $2000 TV, which was on clearance at CostCo, so he “snagged it”.

          I don’t know about you, but I don’t make $1000 impulse purchases.

  33. Whenever I get to thinking about exercise I sit down in the recliner with a box of cookies and wait for the urge to go away.

  34. Unlike homeowners—who are less likely to give up the equity they have—builders are just dropping profit. ‘For builders, it’s a business,’ said John Downs, a certified mortgage advisor. ‘Which is very different than regular homeowners where it’s their network savings.

    WTF are “network savings”?
    And equity in a house is not something one can hold onto and not “give up” — as values plummet around them, equity goes poof.

  35. Canada is a cuck country.

    Trudeau’s internet censorship bill passes Canadian senate (2/4/2023):

    “The Canadian Senate on Thursday voted to pass online censorship Bill C-11, sending the controversial piece of legislation back to the House of Commons and one step closer to becoming law.

    The text of the bill describes the plan by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party to increase the government’s ability to censor controversial and unpopular speech on the internet, stating that the legislation would “specify that the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission… must regulate and supervise the Canadian broadcasting system.”

    “In the long run, the CRTC could end up regulating much of the content posted on major social media, even where the content is generated or uploaded by religious, political, and charitable non-profits,” Carpay explained.

    Critics of the censorship bill have likened it to the policies of authoritarian states like Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union.

    “Wake up Canada, Trudeau’s Senate passed Bill C-11 today…aka…internet censorship…which is anything that opposes their ‘narrative.’ Stalin and Hitler did the same,” Canadian social media commentator Liz Churchill wrote.

    https://thepostmillennial.com/trudeaus-internet-censorship-bill-passes-canadian-senate

    Hey globalists, Covid vaccines are poison, there are only two genders, and the 2020 election was stolen.

    1. A lot of people are hoarders. They know they are hoarders but for many it quite literally hurts to get rid of their junk.

      There’s a dude a few doors down the street. He has his new cars parked on the driveway because his garage is packed to the rafters with cr@p. I’ve never been in his house, but I can only imagine what it is like.

  37. Are you expecting rate cut heroin will increase the value of your stock HODLings later this year?

    1. Yahoo
      Fortune
      Morgan Stanley’s chief strategist thinks investors are in for a bumpy ride after they realize there’s no more Fed rate cut ‘heroin’
      Will Daniel
      Wed, February 1, 2023 at 12:10 PM PST·3 min read

      With inflation falling from its 40-year high in June, investors are betting the Federal Reserve will end its interest rate hiking cycle and “pivot” to rate cuts this year, juicing markets like they did in the past. But some top Wall Street strategists warn that the rosy outlook for stocks may be overly optimistic.

      Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist, Mike Wilson, believes the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, and that corporate earnings will fall.

      “Once people realize the Fed’s not cutting rates—there’s no more heroin, so to speak—then we’re going to price the fundamentals, which are clearly deteriorating in our view,” he told CNBC Tuesday.
      …
      https://www.yahoo.com/now/morgan-stanley-chief-strategist-thinks-201052387.html

  38. Housing
    Published February 6, 2023 1:47pm EST
    Economist who called 2008 housing crash predicts another 15% drop in home prices
    Home prices have a way to go before they hit bottom, economist argues
    By Megan Henney FOXBusiness
    3Fourteen Research founder explains why the housing market is not healthy due to unaffordable prices on ‘Making Money.’ video
    Housing market is key to whether US dips into a recession: Warren Pies

    A U.S. economist famous for predicting the 2008 housing crash believes that home prices could plunge another 15% this year.

    In a recent analyst note, Ian Shepherdson – the founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics – suggested that home price declines will accelerate further in 2023 as a result of low affordability and growing inventory.

    “We estimate that single-family home prices have fallen by 5.4% from their recent peak in May 2022, but they still need to fall by a further 15% or so before they return to their long-run average, compared to disposable incomes,” he wrote in a recent note to clients.

    Although consumer demand likely is bouncing back from a low point in the fall as mortgage rates fall from a record-high, Shepherdson – who predicted the mid-2000s housing bubble and subsequent recession – believes that prices have a ways to go before they hit bottom.
    …
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/economist-who-called-2008-housing-crash-predicts-another-drop-home-prices

  41. Washington Post — Americans not feeling impact of Biden agenda, Post-ABC poll finds:

    https://archive.`s/yO4qA

    Eggs are $7 now. Gas will be $7 again soon. Be ready…

  42. Does it seem like Megabank, Inc is making overly optimistic housing market predictions in order to offload falling knife real estate investments on the unsuspecting?

    1. Yahoo
      Fortune
      Goldman Sachs makes a bold housing market call
      Lance Lambert
      Mon, February 6, 2023 at 12:38 AM PST·4 min read

      The U.S. housing market might finally be nearing the bottom. At least that’s according to Goldman Sachs.

      Just two weeks after Goldman Sachs downgraded its outlook for the U.S. housing market in a paper titled Getting Worse Before Getting Better, the investment bank reversed course on Jan. 23 in a paper titled 2023 Housing Outlook: Finding a Trough.

      Instead of U.S. home prices falling 6.1% in 2023, which was their Jan. 10 prediction, researchers at the investment bank now expect national home prices to end 2023 down just 2.6%.
      …
      https://www.yahoo.com/now/goldman-sachs-makes-bold-housing-083824614.html

      1. “Instead of U.S. home prices falling 6.1% in 2023, which was their Jan. 10 prediction, researchers at the investment bank now expect national home prices to end 2023 down just 2.6%.”

        It must be different in coastal California, where prices are falling at double digit annual rates, and are already down by over 10% from their peak level in less than a year.

        1. Does it seem odd that they drastically rediced the severity of their predicted price declines within the span of a couple of weeks?

          Knifecatchers, beware!

  43. You can ask whatever you want for your run down, ancient crap shack, but if no buyer is willing to pay your asking price, you may end up HODLing forever.

    1. $109,000,000 3 bd 4 ba
      2,514 sqft
      2937 Padaro Ln, Carpinteria, CA 93013
      For sale
      Zestimate: None
      Est. payment: $616,367/mo
      Get pre-qualified

      4.21 Acres
      $43,357 price/sqft
      15 days on Zillow

      Bedrooms and bathrooms

      Bedrooms: 3
      Bathrooms: 4
      Full bathrooms: 3
      1/2 bathrooms: 1

      Price history
      Date Event Price
      1/23/2023 Listed for sale $109,000,000 $43,357/sqft
      Source: SBMLS #23-149
      12/18/2022 Listing removed $109,000,000 $43,357/sqft
      Source: CRMLS #SR22040778
      3/2/2022 Listed for sale $109,000,000 (+9%) $43,357/sqft
      Source: CRMLS #SR22040778
      1/27/2022 Listing removed $100,000,000 $39,777/sqft
      Source: CLAW #21-779976
      10/7/2021 Listed for sale $100,000,000 (+666566.7%) $39,777/sqft
      Source: CLAW
      1/5/2021 Listing removed $39,500 $16/sqft
      Source: CRMLS
      8/1/2002 Sold $15,000 $6/sqft
      Source: Public Record
      …
      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2937-Padaro-Ln-Carpinteria-CA-93013/96054680_zpid/

  44. Opinion Shuli Ren
    India’s Adani Is Not China Evergrande. It’s Worse

    Both companies had accrued billions in debt, but the sell pressures are way more intense for the Indian tycoon.
    Skittish investors.

    Skittish investors.Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg
    By Shuli Ren
    February 5, 2023 at 12:00 PM PST Updated on February 5, 2023 at 6:58 PM PST

    Gautam Adani’s wealth wipeout has few parallels. His industrial empire lost about $112 billion, or roughly half of its market value, just seven trading days after New York-based Hindenburg Research issued a bearish report calling the Adani Group “the largest con in corporate history” — allegations the company strenuously denies. Indian policymakers stepped in over the weekend to calm frayed nerves over concerns the turmoil would affect global investor sentiment toward the country.

    Adani’s rapid unwind has surprised many. But this is not the first time emerging Asia’s conglomerates have been accused of poor governance, lofty valuation and even loftier debt piles. The likes of China Evergrande Group survived short seller attacks for years — until Beijing put its foot down. So why is Adani so vulnerable?

    In some ways, Adani is even worse than Evergrande, which, at its prime, accrued around $100 billion net debt, five times Adani’s level. In recent years, the powerful Indian mogul managed to attract blue-chip investors that specialize in ESG or low-risk corporate debt. But on the flip side, Adani has an investor base that is more skittish around market sentiments, and that means the selling pressure is a lot higher.

    For many years, those who bought into Evergrande knew exactly what it was — an overleveraged empire that offered attractive yields and was perhaps becoming too big to fail. As such, those who purchased the junk-rated developer’s bonds tended to be hedge funds or private banks’ wealthy clients, who generally have a bigger risk appetite and tolerance than traditional asset managers.

    Not so for Adani Group. Believe it or not, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd. — the group’s biggest issuer in the dollar-bond space — is rated at the lowest tranche of the investment grade. So are Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd. and Adani Transmission Ltd.
    …
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-05/adani-is-not-china-evergrande-group-it-s-even-worse?leadSource=uverify%20wall

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