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You Are Effectively Trapped, And Your Bank Knows It

A report from Axios on Virginia. “Richmond home prices seem to be leveling off some after soaring for two years, per Redfin. The city of Richmond saw the biggest year-over-year drop in median sales price for single family homes in January, falling 11% to $280,000, while also seeing some of the steepest losses in listed and closed sales. Inventory was up 27% from last year.”

The Bradenton Herald in Florida. “Home prices are ‘showing no sign of falling back to pre-pandemic levels,’ the REALTOR Association of Sarasota and Manatee said in a news release. In Sarasota, 411 existing single-family homes changed hands, compared to 653 a year ago and the median price fell 1% from $464,500 to $459,999. ‘The real estate market in Sarasota and Manatee counties continues to be less active than the same time last year with significant decreases in the number of closed sales across all property types,’ said Brian Tresidder, Realtor association president. ‘Despite the decrease in sales, median sales prices for all property types are still higher than last year, with the exception of Sarasota single-family homes.'”

From Nerdwallet. “Homebuilders have hundreds of thousands of unsold dwellings in their inventories. And many homebuilders are offering incentives to prod buyers into signing purchase contracts: According to the National Association of Home Builders, 57% of builders offered some kind of incentive in February. The NAHB says 31% of builders reduced prices in February, by an average of 6%. That’s a sign of distress; builders don’t like to trim prices.”

“‘You can’t just blindly reduce prices,’ Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, said in a recent earnings call with analysts. ‘I think the more you just reduce prices, the more the consumer expects us to do.’ Plus, cutting prices in a housing development can infuriate customers who bought earlier, at higher prices. Using incentives can decrease the total cost of the buyer’s contract while making it appear they paid the same as their neighbors.”

From Fortune. “The real effect to pay attention to, said Michael Seiler, professor of real estate and finance at the College of William & Mary, is what Airbnb does to long-term rentals. Seiler decided to go deeper in his research, with co-authors in a paper, ‘Airbnb or Not Airbnb? That is the Question: How Airbnb Bans Disrupt Rental Markets,’ shared with Fortune.”

“In order to understand this Airbnb effect on long-term rentals, the authors focused on legislative bans on short-term rentals in general, and an Airbnb ordinance in Irvine, California, in particular. Irvine is one of the few cities that strictly enforces such regulation and actually prohibits Airbnbs in residential zoning areas. When you take away Airbnbs, rents go down. Seiler told Fortune that was expected, considering there’s a supply side effect that’s cutting into the market, in that rents go down and rental units shift toward long-term rentals, which makes rent cheaper.”

“‘You have oversupplied the market, so people stopped renting their property short-term [and] they started renting it long-term,’ he said. ‘That’s an increase in supply, and therefore that should put downward pressure on prices, and it did.'”

KSBW in California. “California State University, Monterey Bay announced it was scrapping a development project known as the 2nd Avenue Concept that would have exceeded the demand for faculty housing. According to CSUMB’s Chief Financial Officer Glen Nelson, the concept, first conceived in the early 2000s and formally proposed in September 2022, is ‘no longer needed’ given the university’s current housing inventory and the city of Marina’s own development projects. As of late, Nelson says, there is no waitlist for nonrenovated two bedroom, one bath apartment units.”

The Real Deal. “Distress is stressing out real estate investors. And last week didn’t help. Columbia Property Trust, a large office landlord controlled by PIMCO, has defaulted on $1.7 billion in loans tied to seven buildings across the country, marking one of largest office defaults since the start of the pandemic. In Los Angeles, Brookfield walked away from $784 million in loans connected to two of the firm’s trophy office towers in Downtown Los Angeles: 777 South Figueroa Street and the Gas Company Tower at 555 West 5th Street.”

“In New York, Cyrus and Darius Sakhai’s Sovereign Partners struck a deal with Pearlmark Real Estate to buy the Tower56 office building at 126 East 56th Street in the Plaza District for about $110 million. Pearlmark couldn’t refinance its mortgage on the property, and the sale price is roughly what is owed on the debt. It’s one of the first big forced sales to hit the New York office market — a trend many expect to grow this year as owners have trouble refinancing loans that come due.”

“Madison Realty Capital could lose its retail space at the Williamsburgh Savings Bank building in Downtown Brooklyn after a judge allowed lender Amherst Capital to proceed with its foreclosure on the retail condominium, owned by a joint venture of Madison and private equity firm Siguler Guff. The judge ruled the venture defaulted on a $22.2 million loan. Things weren’t all that rosy on the development side, either. Chetrit defaulted on the $85 million loan at 545 West 37th Street, a shovel-ready development site at Hudson Yards, Commercial Observer reported. Mack Real Estate is now the sole owner of the debt and the loan is being marketed by veteran dealmakers.”

“In Miami, development site prices plunged in the third and fourth quarters of last year, largely due to rising interest rates, according to developer Harvey Hernandez, as well as some brokers TRD spoke with.”

The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “Nearly a year ago, Sutton Group Westcoast pre-sold 21 units in a new Port Moody development in a single day. The number speaks to the frenzied market of early 2022. Since then, the Metro Vancouver real estate market has cooled considerably due to the rise in interest rates. At the moment, it seems everyone—developers, buyers, sellers, realtors—is holding their breath. ‘Our open houses are busier than ever,’ said realtor Jordon Sutton. ‘But the offers aren’t coming in. We’re at a stalemate here. We can feel the demand is being pushed back, and we’re not seeing the sales that just naturally occur.'”

“As for the Port Moody development, Hue by Marcon, which saw such record-breaking numbers last year, the first phase is gone. But units in the second phase are still available. ‘It took two weeks to sell the first phase, and now it’s probably going to take eight months to sell the second,’ Sutton said.”

The Telegraph in the UK. “The property downturn has forced one in 10 sellers to slash at least 10pc off their asking prices as demand slumps. High mortgage rates and the cost of living crisis mean homeowners are having to come to terms with the fact that buyers have drastically reduced budgets. Richard Donnell, of property website Zoopla, said: ’10pc of the total number of homes listed on Zoopla have had their asking prices reduced by more than 10pc.'”

“On a typical £294,000 home, based on the average UK house price in December according to the Office for National Statistics, this discount would be worth around £30,000. A further 17pc of listed properties had asking price reductions of between 5pc and 10pc, Mr Donnell said. Emma Fildes, of Brick Weaver, a buying agent, said: ‘Everything I’m getting sent is being reduced. Certainly for properties under £800,000, everyone is taking £50,000 off the price, and then another £25,000 comes off when the sale is agreed.'”

“Thea Carroll, an independent London buying agent, said: ‘We’re already seeing what I would call a ‘conversational 10pc’ – where the estate agent and buying agent agree that’s where the value sits under the instructed price – before formal negotiations have even started.'”

The Daily Mail. “Aussies have lashed out at the Barefoot Investor Scott Pape after he told homeowners they need to take some of the blame for their own decisions as interest rates soar. Earlier this month, a homeowner named Ben wrote to the financial investment guru asking ‘why is there no class action being taken against Philip Lowe and the RBA?’ over the Reserve Bank governor’s forecast interest rates would not rise until 2024. ‘How can the head of the RBA make unequivocal statements (not predictions) that interest rates will not rise until 2024 and then wash his hands and take no responsibility for the trauma (financial and mentally) his words have caused? Thousands of people, myself included, proceeded to purchase property based on these statements and are now in serious financial stress.'”

“Mr Pape replied and said that he thought Dr Lowe had ‘stuffed up right royally’ and should be ‘benched’ – but also called on mortgage-holders to take some of the blame for borrowing too much money. ‘Look, no one put a gun to your head and told you to borrow too much money when interest rates were at their lowest levels in recorded history,’ he said. ‘I’ve written about this every week for the last decade, mate! So sorry, but I won’t be joining your pity party.'”

“Pape’s sass did not go down well with some of his readers – with some unleashing at the popular financial adviser. ‘F*** you,’ one angry missive said. A reader named Linda wrote to Pape, saying: ‘As you enjoy your perch high up without mortgage stress, you won’t join in our ‘pity party.’ Yet my heart breaks telling my kids they can no longer do swimming lessons, no longer go to birthday parties, and no longer afford new shoes, among countless other sacrifices. ‘Meanwhile, my husband and I have added second jobs in our evenings and weekends to deal with the devastation caused by the rate rises and cost of living. For the first time in my life, I’ve started lining up at food banks each Tuesday so our children can have fruit and bread.'”

“The reader said they had taken out a hefty loan because Mr Lowe had forecast interest rates would not rise before they were increased nine consecutive times. Mr Pape responded to Linda, saying: ‘At the height of the pandemic the RBA flooded the banks with billions of dollars at the super-low rate of 0.1 per cent to support the economy. The banks shovelled out this money as quickly as they could… and for that round of limbo lending, they made it super simple for borrowers to shimmy across the line: they assessed them on the rosy scenario that rates wouldn’t go higher than 3 per cent.'”

“‘So are the banks fretting about their stuff-up? Nah. The banks know that the vast majority of their customers are like you, Linda – they will sell off their kidneys to keep their house. If you recently borrowed more than 80 per cent of the value of your home – which I have always advised against! – you’ll find that you are effectively trapped. And your bank knows it.'”

“A Reserve Bank program that handed the banks $188 billion to provide ultra-cheap home loans at the height of the Covid lockdowns appears to be playing a key role in Australia’s cost of living crisis. And now many borrowers are facing a severe ‘cliff’ in coming months – with mortgage holders who signed up to a very low fixed rate loan two years ago facing an abrupt 69 per cent surge in their monthly repayments. CoreLogic’s head of research Eliza Owen said the real pain would begin in April as ultra-low fixed rates started expiring, which was likely to see house prices fall further. Sydney’s median house price has already plunged by 15 per cent to $1.2 million during the past year. Making matters worse, two-thirds of Australia’s fixed rate loans are expiring in 2023, which means 23 per cent of all home borrowers will be coming off an ultra-low rate. ‘Hence the “cliff,’ Ms Owen said.”

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This Post Has 113 Comments

  1. I didn’t see any good videos yesterday, BTW.

    ‘Everything I’m getting sent is being reduced. Certainly for properties under £800,000, everyone is taking £50,000 off the price, and then another £25,000 comes off when the sale is agreed.’…‘We’re already seeing what I would call a ‘conversational 10pc’ – where the estate agent and buying agent agree that’s where the value sits under the instructed price – before formal negotiations have even started’

    That’s the spirit! Emma, Thea, keep up the great work.

  2. Meanwhile, my husband and I have added second jobs in our evenings and weekends to deal with the devastation caused by the rate rises and cost of living. For the first time in my life, I’ve started lining up at food banks each Tuesday so our children can have fruit and bread’

    I almost hate to mention it Linda, but what about yer avocado sammies?

    This is one of those times the Daily Mail does a better job than the usual outlets. It’s worth a read in full.

    2. “The kernel of the idea that became Eliot’s was sparked in July 2013. We officially launched in November 2013 and we were off to the races. We gained fans, stores, added new flavors, changed branding but stayed true to core values all along the way. Making a great tasting product that is good for you and helps make the world a better place.

      As we approach ten years of existence, it would be ideal to be planning a celebration of Eliot’s. Unfortunately Eliot’s Nut Butters will not be around to reach that milestone. As a small, scrappy nut butter company, we’ve done our best to build a sustainable business. However, we’ve encountered setbacks over the years and reached a juncture where continuing operations is no longer financially possible.”

      The search is on for another gourmet chocolate hazelnut supplier.

    3. TBH I’m surprised that ANYone buys a house in Australia. At the very least I would buy a house 2/3 of the actual price I could afford, to absorb any rate increases. Problem is, allowing a basic need like housing to be financialized by the rich pushed up prices to where that’s not possible. Renting is probably not much better either.

  4. ‘You have oversupplied the market’

    No!

    ‘there is no waitlist for nonrenovated two bedroom, one bath apartment units’

    Wa happened to my shortage California?

    1. “unrenovated two-bedroom one-bathroom”

      Nowadays, that would be Class B and ready for Section 8 single mothers. Renovating is too expensive to be worthwhile.

  5. ‘In Sarasota, 411 existing single-family homes changed hands, compared to 653 a year ago and the median price fell 1%’

    Another sh$thole rolls over YOY and wipes out the spring cray cray.

    ‘The city of Richmond saw the biggest year-over-year drop in median sales price for single family homes in January, falling 11% to $280,000’

    Good thing everybody put 20% down.

  6. 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗼𝗻, 𝗪𝗜 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟳% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗮𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗧𝘄𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀

    https://www.movoto.com/appleton-wi/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘢 𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘴, “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘢𝘯𝘬𝘳𝘶𝘱𝘵𝘤𝘺 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘚 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 15 𝘢𝘯𝘥 30 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘨𝘢𝘨𝘦.”

  7. ‘At the height of the pandemic the RBA flooded the banks with billions of dollars at the super-low rate of 0.1 per cent to support the economy. The banks shovelled out this money as quickly as they could… and for that round of limbo lending, they made it super simple for borrowers to shimmy across the line: they assessed them on the rosy scenario that rates wouldn’t go higher than 3 per cent’

    That’s some sound lending right there.

    ‘So are the banks fretting about their stuff-up? Nah. The banks know that the vast majority of their customers are like you, Linda – they will sell off their kidneys to keep their house’

    The way forward Linda, is clear. Stop eating and sell yer kidney.

    1. I don’t know if Scott Pape is a lion, but at face value his advice against borrowing more than 80% to purchase a house was not heeded by people like Linda. I am amused by the ‘pity invoking’ vitriol against this guy using their kids, when he correctly points out the parents part in inviting this fiasco upon themselves.
      I suppose very few adults want to come to terms that it was their fault speculative genius that is not working. I notice that a majority of people expect something for free.

  8. The city of Richmond saw the biggest year-over-year drop in median sales price for single family homes in January, falling 11% to $280,000, while also seeing some of the steepest losses in listed and closed sales.

    REIC shills call this “leveling off”?

    1. It’s as level as some of those newly constructed houses built by the highly skilled laborers flooding over the border.

  9. “Home prices are ‘showing no sign of falling back to pre-pandemic levels,’ the REALTOR Association of Sarasota and Manatee said in a news release.

    “It’s just a gully.”

  10. “‘You can’t just blindly reduce prices,’ Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, said in a recent earnings call with analysts. ‘I think the more you just reduce prices, the more the consumer expects us to do.’

    Mr. Market determines shack valuations, Sheryl. Not greedy homebuilder CEOs.

  11. High mortgage rates and the cost of living crisis mean homeowners are having to come to terms with the fact that buyers have drastically reduced budgets.

    Get to sawin’ and slashin’ like you mean it, greedheads. This is as good as it gets.

  12. Yet my heart breaks telling my kids they can no longer do swimming lessons, no longer go to birthday parties, and no longer afford new shoes, among countless other sacrifices.

    It would take a heart of stone to read these FB tales of woe, and not laugh.

    2. It would take a heart of stone to read these FB tales of woe, and not laugh.
      I agree, It really is damn funny, at least from my “perch.”

  15. A reader sent these in:

    The DoE’s National Labs are the crown jewel of US scientific research. Both the Labs and the DoD/FBI biosafety/warfare facility at Ft. Detrick now believe Covid originated and escaped from a Wuhan lab.

    https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1629917450719449090

    10 years ago Charlotte Class A multifamily was trading at a 4.75% – 5.25% caps and Class C was trading at 6.50% – 7.00% caps. I watched wayyyy too many C Class deals trade in the 4 cap range over the last 3 years.

    https://twitter.com/MultifamilyMad/status/1629634656269217792

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Inflation has been higher than expected in every report this month.
    However, PCE inflation marked the 1st INCREASE in months.
    – PCE up from 5.3% to 5.4%
    – Core PCE up from 4.6% to 4.7%
    The Fed’s “preferred inflation gauge” is RISING.
    How are there not more headlines on this?

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1629936081658429444

    Carvana Net Income…
    2022: -$1.59 billion
    2021: -$135 million
    2020: -$171 million
    2019: -$115 million
    2018: -$55 million
    2017: -$18 million
    2016: -$93 million
    2015: -$4 million
    2014: -$15 million

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1629867715807649793

    After the most euphoric January in recent history, hopes of a new bull market have arisen. But the latest market bonanza has set the stage for increased intervention. The Great Financial Tightening™ is about to begin… 1/

    https://twitter.com/concodanomics/status/1629917581334446080

    Maricopa County Multi-Family Permits

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1629882527992414209

    CarDealershipGuy

    1998 Ford Escort for $289 a month for the next 84 months 🤮

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1629928806868811777

    John Wake

    Also looks like Fannie is now adding a fee when the Debt-to-Income ratio is above 40%. Mortgages, where the borrower’s DTI is above 40%, seem predatory to me. Max DTI should be lower than 40%. Don’t add a fee. Just don’t make such high-debt mortgages.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1629872916094668806

    John Wake

    Now you have to wait at least 12 months between cash-out refis through Fannie Mae. Yikes! They used to let people take another cash-out refi within 12 months! My thoughts
    – This is good. (Old policy seems predatory)
    – Credit is tightening as prices fall.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1629867675810922497

    I work in a bank. Biggest mistake was PPP Loan forgiveness. Conservatively 90% of the loans should not have been forgiven. We’ve seen customers buy rvs, second homes , land etc w PPP $. All legal.

    https://twitter.com/holden_bukowski/status/1629908434253668352

    The #Airbnbust intensifies: “FULL ON PANIC” “FROM MAXIMUM OCCUPANCY TO NEAR ZERO” Don’t be fooled by the eternal optimism of loquacious executives during the recent $ABNB earnings call. Over-leveraged hosts will get wrecked in the next 12-24 months

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1629918941219901450

    Realtors with the clients in 2023

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1629841664960258051

    Incredible that student loan payments have been suspended since March 2020. What happens when these come back online?

    https://twitter.com/baldridgecpa/status/1629864466706833409

    Housing market is so bad that Americans are spilling over into South American, Central America and Europe to the point countries are making harsh rules for sítialo nomads and Airbnb.

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1629890149961064449

    I suggest everyone go to Jeff’s realtor page…. it is public record what he has sold in the last 6 months. Go to sold and u will see 2 sold houses in 6 months.

    https://twitter.com/ssun5555/status/1629900526342086662

    WeWork raised a total of $22 billion in funding and is now worth $900 million

    https://twitter.com/tomaxwell/status/1629296632943505408

    Might be worse than 2008

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1629899595198222340

    Another huge price drop. $35,000 on a condo. Close to a 15% price reduction in one swoop.

    https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1629844343107272705

    Justin Trudeau heckled again … 🔥🔥🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1629805980002181122

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Times Square today…

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1629599895207260167

    1. ‘The DoE’s National Labs are the crown jewel of US scientific research. Both the Labs and the DoD/FBI biosafety/warfare facility at Ft. Detrick now believe Covid originated and escaped from a Wuhan lab’

      Yeah, escaped and the CCP kept Wuhan shut off from the rest of China yet allowed thousands to fly out of the city’s airport to the entire world.

      It escaped!

      1. “now believe Covid originated and escaped from a Wuhan lab”

        I bet they believed this about 30 months ago, hid it from Trump, and then Biden has hidden it for the last 24 months.

        1. ‘they believed this about 30 months ago’

          ‘They’ spent millions of pesos crawling through caves to find and then make a virus more deadly. That’s their story.

          1. … and bat soup.

            You’d have to be brain damaged or a head case to believe any of this stuff.. covid, elections, housing. All of it.

        2. now believe

          I’m less concerned about a report of what the government currently supposedly believes than about what they are priming us for, what happens next. Whatever these guys “know” now they knew two years ago.

        1. Three Years Late, the Lancet Recognizes Natural Immunity:
          Israel verified natural immunity for Covid in, if I recall correctly, June of 2021. US just chose to ignore the “science” to “believe the other science.”
          Funny thing, that is not how science works.
          Scientific Ideas/theory/data needs to challenged and re-challenged, some times for hundreds of years, as new data becomes available.

      3. But Pangolins 🤣 they searched high and low for a natural source of corona virus or at least said they did, found nothing. Started a war in Ukraine to divert attention. What next ?

        1. The US guberment had many millions of wild Chinese animals killed to test for CCP virus. Found nothing. If this was a naturally evolved virus it or some form of the virus would have been in part of that large sample, and it wasn’t. That was reported (and buried) years ago. The most obvious source was always the lab and now it comes out.

    4. “the DoD/FBI biosafety/warfare facility at Ft. Detrick now believe Covid originated and escaped from a Wuhan lab.”

      We all know the folks at Detrick are experts at spreading deadly diseases.

    5. I work in a bank. Biggest mistake was PPP Loan forgiveness. Conservatively 90% of the loans should not have been forgiven. We’ve seen customers buy rvs, second homes , land etc w PPP $. All legal.

      The PPP “loan” program was criminal. It destroyed pricing.

      1. John Wake replied: “Such giveaways are why we won’t have skyrocketing foreclosures & falling prices, like last time. Programs like PPP, which were unthinkable not long ago, are now just another tool in the toolkit. Ditto, mortgage forbearance. If foreclosures get high, they’ll create a program.”

        Different color of lipstick, same pig.

    1. “…the lowest level since 1995.”

      Thats one of the first ‘back to pre-bubblr level’ statistics I’ve seen. Is a full retracement ahead?

      “As of Friday, February 24, 2023, the 30-year fixed rate had risen to 6.88%.”

      Creeping back up towards 7%…

      1. “Thats one of the first ‘back to pre-bubblr level’ statistics I’ve seen.”

        I was thinking the same thing.

      2. Full retracement will happen only if mortgage rates stay this high for a couple years. Powell will likely pivot long before then.

        1. Not if inflation doesn’t come down. The idea that the FED will pivot while CPI is still 3x-4x their target is laughable.

          2. Ironically, the fact that they have a consumer price target above neutral is Criminal.

            I agree with that. It’s theft of the fruits of the labor of men and women. I consider the FED a criminal outfit at this point.

  17. ‘How can the head of the RBA make unequivocal statements (not predictions) that interest rates will not rise until 2024 and then wash his hands and take no responsibility for the trauma (financial and mentally) his words have caused? Thousands of people, myself included, proceeded to purchase property based on these statements and are now in serious financial stress.’”

    Imagine being an “educated” adult and believing every word coming out of some politically motivated hack’s mouth.

    1. I read these types of stories and I always think back to the ever classic blues brother’s scene (which is now 40 plus years old) “you efffed up, you trusted us”

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTF2j0OWUi8

      I feel no pity for these people at all. Seriously what difference does it make if it gets raised in 23 or 24? They would just be whining in ’24 anyway “ohhhhhhh poor me”

    2. an “educated” adult and believing every word

      He sounds like a housing day trader. No education can help a greedy speculator.

    1. “Finally”

      “adult cabaret performance” in a location where children are present.”

      Now to throw the child abusing Queens and parents who bring their children to the shows in jail.

      1. As long as it’s LGBTQ-themed, subjecting children to adult sexual content is perfectly acceptable.

        If you object, you are in violation of diversity and inclusion principles.

        1. California wants kids to be subject to heroin, fentanyl, marijuana and trannies, but heaven forbid you sell them cigarettes at any age if they are born after 2007.

          1. but heaven forbid you sell them cigarettes at any age
            I was told last week that menthol cigarettes are not allowed to be sold in CA anymore. I that correct?

  19. Muhammad Becomes Most Popular Baby Name in Irish City

    PETER CADDLE
    27 Feb 2023

    The statistic sees Ireland join the likes of France, England, Sweden, and many other European countries, which have all seen the popularity of the name surge amid record immigration from Islamic countries over the last two-to-three decades.

    It now appears that Ireland is on the same path as its European neighbours as it pursues mass migration policies, with Muhammad now reported to be Galway City’s most popular baby name of 2022, beating out last year’s winners of Michael and Liam.

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/02/27/muhammad-becomes-most-popular-baby-name-in-irish-city/

  20. “‘Look, no one put a gun to your head and told you to borrow too much money when interest rates were at their lowest levels in recorded history,’ he said. ‘I’ve written about this every week for the last decade, mate! So sorry, but I won’t be joining your pity party.’”

    Informing people they are responsible for the consequences of their own bad financial decisions has a way of angering them.

    “Pape’s sass did not go down well with some of his readers – with some unleashing at the popular financial adviser. ‘F*** you,’ one angry missive said.”

    1. That story is such a typical millennial/zoomer response. “nothing is my fault, nothing” (TBF 08 wasn’t much better). Somebody lied to me, everything isn’t fair. FFS it’s like dealing with preschoolers.

      I hope the millennials and zoomers are going to enjoy everything they are so proudly “building”. Cuz they are going to get it good and hard.

      1. And when has the WWII set ever taken responsibility for allowing the accumulation of a mind-blowing public debt, on top of the tens of trillions in unfunded liabilities in Social Security and Medicare?

  21. Now the big attack on books of all sorts and rewriting what might be offensive. Shakespeare and book 1984 targeted for re-editing.
    This is nothing more than the Hitler burning of books. . It’s the 1984 Ministry of Truth taking away ability to think.
    I don’t know if this is just another distraction, or is this one more way to limit thought by the New World Order?
    They just want drones that obey orders from Big Brother, or the face of Science Fauci, or from fake news.
    Just stay in your house ,, cut off your air by a useless mask and take the fake vaccine over and over again. They raised the price of vaccines, but that doesn’t make up for only 2% now getting the jabs. .
    The attempt to take away all that sustains life , by the Stakeholders of the New World Order, that want you to own nothing , eat bugs, with forced injections , with every move monitored, is a anti humanity prison
    dream by psychopaths and parasites and
    fraudster looters

  22. NPR
    Despite historic amounts of rain and snow, California is still in a drought emergency
    February 27, 20235:04 AM ET
    Heard on Morning Edition

    CA is in a drought, CA has always been in a drought “1984”

  23. Republican lawmakers responded to a news report saying that the U.S. Energy Department had concluded the lab leak theory was “likely,” saying that the finding supports what many have long suspected.

    A Wall Street Journal article on Feb. 26 reported that a classified intelligence report by the Energy Department said that the virus likely leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

    “So the government caught up to what Real America knew all along,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) wrote in a Twitter post on Sunday.

    The responses came as GOP lawmakers ramp up investigations into the origin of COVID-19 and allegations of government-big tech censorship of the debate.

    The Energy Department was previously undecided on the issue but now joins the FBI in corroborating the lab leak hypothesis, according to the report. Several people who have read the report said the Department’s judgment was made with “low confidence,” the Journal reported.

    Responding to the report on Sunday, White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN that the intelligence community does not have a “definitive answer” on the matter at this point.

    Republican lawmakers have been vocal about the theory that the virus leaked from the Wuhan laboratory soon after the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Initially, some health professionals and legacy media outlets dismissed the theory, labeling the theory’s proponents as racist and conspiracy theorists.

    Some lawmakers also accused Anthony Fauci, former head of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), of colluding with big tech companies, such as Facebook and Twitter, and censoring stories about the lab leak theory via what these companies describe as a crackdown on “misinformation.”

    “Fauci knew this immediately but dismissed it because of funding for the Wuhan lab,” Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) wrote in another post. “We know what happened next — when Fauci spoke Big Tech censored. I exposed this collusion as AG and I’ll work to ensure this type of censorship never happens again.”

    “Americans knew this from Day One,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) wrote on Twitter on Sunday. “Unfortunately, Big Tech and Big Government silenced them.”

    Republicans and critics of Fauci have raised concerns about the NIAID’s funding of the Wuhan Institute of Virology via the non-governmental organization EcoHealth Alliance, including for research described by experts as gain-of-function. The NIAID issued about 3.4 million in grants to EcoHealth.

    Gain-of-function research makes the virus more deadly by enhancing its pathogenicity, its ability to cause disease and harm the host, or transmissibility, how easily it spreads.

    The NIH has denied that the grants were for gain-of-function research, while Fauci has defended the decision to issue the grants to EcoHealth.

    “More evidence continues to mount that COVID came from the Wuhan lab. We’ve uncovered emails showing Dr. Fauci was warned that the virus looked man-made & came from a lab, but he may have acted to cover it up. Why? We need answers & accountability,” wrote the official Twitter account of the House Oversight Republican Committee.

    Republicans on the committee previously disclosed internal NIH emails that showed Fauci was informed by senior scientists early in the pandemic that the theory that COVID-19 had a natural origin was “highly unlikely,” even while Fauci was publicly promoting the natural origin theory.

    Republican lawmakers such as Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) took issue with what he described as a lack of transparency in government investigations related to the origins of COVID-19.

    “The American people deserve the full truth about #covid origins. No more whitewash. I will again introduce legislation to make the US government’s intelligence reports on covid open to the people,” Hawley wrote.

    Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) echoed Hawley’s view.

    “The elites and academics owe everyone who had legitimate questions and concerns about the origins of COVID an apology,” Buck wrote in a Twitter post. “The American people deserve to see all the information concerning the Chinese lab leak and the origins of COVID. This won’t be forgotten.”

    Meanwhile, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) says the United States should focus on the further implications of the report, namely, the need for the U.S. government to act to hold the Chinese regime accountable for the pandemic.

    “Re. China’s lab leak, being proven right doesn’t matter,” Cotton wrote in a Twitter post. “What matters is holding the Chinese Communist Party accountable so this doesn’t happen again.”

    The Epoch Times contacted the National Institutes of Health and the Department of Energy for comment

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/republicans-react-to-energy-departments-reported-finding-that-covid-likely-leaked-from-wuhan-lab_5084167.html

    Hey Tom, this was a US guberment operation. You guys were doing it in China cuz it’s illegal here.

    1. ‘Initially, some health professionals and legacy media outlets dismissed the theory, labeling the theory’s proponents as racist and conspiracy theorists’

      I seem to recall this happening in other instances as well.

  24. 𝗔𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗿𝗮, 𝗖𝗢 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟰% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘀𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝘂𝗱 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮

    https://www.movoto.com/aurora-co/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘥, “𝘐𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘣𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘴𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘳𝘢𝘶𝘥, 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 60% 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴.”

    1. Carter phuc’d the middle-east when he wouldn’t control the corrupt Shah of Iran allowing the Ayatollah Khomeini to step into the power vacuum. Now it appears that the son of the last Shah hopes to help steer his people peacefully out of the current rotten religious dictatorship. Not sure what Israel thinks of this latest development.

      1. VS: OH bamha buys a 14 million house in a 98% white hood, and gets a huge Netflix contract, Not a chance he would move to Chicago and spend his loot helping black kids to read write and speak English and stay off the school to prison pipeline. NAH

          3. Sorry, you’ll have to connect the dots.

            Because there’s nothing that says it. We’re not the world’s police.

          4. There’s nothing that states that the U.S. must pay the costs for Israel’s protection, but the de-facto reality is their bills are paid U.S. taxpayers.

  26. RE: How can the head of the RBA make unequivocal statements (not predictions) that interest rates will not rise until 2024 and then wash his hands and take no responsibility for the trauma (financial and mentally) his words have caused?

    As Late Walter Cronkite would have said, that’s the way it is.

    If successful prediction would be the criterion for the validity of any science, then the Nobel Prize for the oxymoron called Economic Sciences would have been withdrawn a long time ago and its practitioners locked up in a lunatic asylum, if not prison . . .

      1. Something comes to mind about not putting one’s trust in princes…
        Are you saying I shouldn’t put all my faith and trust in Prince Harry? He might mislead me?

  27. I just got this from Crain’s New York:

    Fed says overvalued commercial real estate poses risk to financial system

    The regulator delivers a stern warning to CRE lenders 

    Related: Tracking stages of grief for city office landlords

    2. I’ve been surprised by the lack of urgency on this subject. In past times all of these empty offices would have garnered lots of doom segments. So would the legions of people living in tents and RV’s but no one seems very concerned these days.

      I saw an interesting video yesterday about the RV’s in LA. In one 6 square mile area there they have counted over 500 RV’s parked on the street with people living in them. An outreach group reported that the majority of the RV’s are not even owned by the occupants but are in fact rentals and that the frequent fires are often started by the landlord burning them out over nonpayment.

      Perhaps one of the regulators could issue another stern warning.

      1. Definition of ’to close the stable door after the horse has bolted’
        to close the stable door after the horse has bolted
        phrase [VERB inflects]
        If you say that someone has closed or shut the stable door after the horse has bolted, you mean that they have tried to prevent something happening but they have done so too late to prevent damage being done.

    1. Wasatch Front home prices fall again except in these places
      by Daniel Woodruff, KUTV
      Monday, February 27th 2023
      Home prices along the Wasatch Front largely fell again in January compared to the year before, according to new data from the Salt Lake Board of Realtors.
      (File photo: KUTV)

      SALT LAKE CITY (KUTV) —
      Home prices along the Wasatch Front largely fell again in January compared to the year before, according to new data from the Salt Lake Board of Realtors.

      The median sales price for a single-family home in Salt Lake County was $533,500 last month, down just over nine percent from January 2022, acceding to the data. Prices of condos, townhomes, and apartments in that county also fell year over year.

      This came as the number of home sales in Salt Lake County also fell in January amid higher mortgage rates.

      “Mortgage interest rates continue to hinder sales,” said Rob Ockey, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, in a statement. “However, we expect the 30-year mortgage rate will trend lower in the coming months.”
      …
      https://kutv.com/news/local/utah-housing-prices-market-wasatch-front-salt-lake-county-davis-weber-tooele-single-family-january-2023-townhomes-condos-board-realtors

    2. MarketWatch
      Markets
      Market Extra
      Risk of ‘wrathful Old Testament–style’ reaction from central banks is rising, JPMorgan says
      Last Updated: Feb. 27, 2023 at 4:04 p.m. ET
      First Published: Feb. 27, 2023 at 12:13 p.m. ET
      By Vivien Lou Chen

      The “gentle and forgiving path” taken by developed-market central banks to rein in inflation over the past year is likely to prove unsuccessful and trigger the need for more forceful, biblical-type action.

      That’s the view of economists Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton and Michael Hanson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM , who described the response of central bankers in the past year as embodying “a New Testament–style grace” — in terms of keeping the economic expansion going and tolerating a gradual decline in inflation. Rate hikes so far have been “a correction from inappropriately accommodative stances rather than an attempt to smite out the expansion,” they said.

      On Monday, investors attempted to recover from weeks of volatility driven by a stream of unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data, pushing up expectations for continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. U.S. stocks finished slightly higher after booking their worst week of 2023. Meanwhile, Treasury yields ended the New York session lower after 2- and 10-year rates had jumped for a fifth straight week. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY was off 0.5%.

      Don’t miss: Will recession slam the stock market? Here are 3 ‘landing’ scenarios as Fed keeps up the inflation fight.

      Attention now turns to developments coming later this week. Thursday brings an inflation update from the eurozone, which is expected to set the tone for bond markets, as well as the account of the European Central Bank’s most recent meeting. In the U.S., markets expect the Fed to end up lifting its targeted federal funds rate to 5.4% from the 5.1% median forecast for 2023 among policy makers in December. Deutsche Bank remains an outlier, with a call for a 5.6% terminal fed funds rate.

      Over the past year, developed-market central banks have delivered rate hikes of roughly 300 basis points or more each, according to JPMorgan.

      The Fed has gone even further, hiking 450 basis points, taking its main policy rate to between 4.5% and 4.75% from almost zero last March, but opted for a smaller rate hike at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, when it lifted rates by only a quarter-point.

      “Recent developments suggest this gentle and forgiving path will prove unsuccessful,” Kasman, Lupton and Hanson wrote, in a Friday note. “The risk of triggering a more wrathful Old Testament–style central-bank reaction is on the rise. The transmission of the rapid shift in policy still underway also raises the risk of a recession not intended by central banks.”
      …

        1. Reminds me of Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman telling us he was “doing God’s work.” These people are mentally ill megalomaniacs.

  30. I have great news for young renters struggling to make ends meet: Apartment rents are falling month after month across the US. The long-awaited restoration of affordable housing is well underway.

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      PROPERTY REPORT
      Apartment Rents Fall as Crush of New Supply Hits Market
      Declines signal tenants may be maxed out on how much income they can devote to rent
      YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
      Play video: Should You Rent or Buy a Home?
      Economists have long said that renting and investing in the stock market is a better investment than owning a house, and in 2022 that could be especially true.
      WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains.
      Photo illustration: Elizabeth Smelov
      By Will ParkerFollow
      Updated Feb. 27, 2023 2:00 pm ET

      Apartment rents fell in every major metropolitan area in the U.S. over the past six months through January, a trend that is poised to continue as the biggest delivery of new apartments in nearly four decades is slated for this year.

      Renters with new leases in January paid a median rent that was 3.5% lower than they would have paid last August, according to estimates from listing website Apartment List. It was the first time in five years that rent fell every month over a six-month period, according to the same estimates.
      …

  32. Is there a way to raise the $5 million per victim of discrimination from those who perpetrated the harms? Otherwise, those who had no role in the harmful actions will be forced to pay reparations on a racially discriminatory basis.

    Or is the presumption that all non-blacks are in the wrong, and thus owe compensation to blacks?

    1. US
      San Francisco reparations committee proposes a $5 million payment to each Black resident
      By Nicole Chavez and Justin Gamble, CNN
      Updated 6:11 PM EST, Thu January 19, 2023
      Black residents in San Francisco and elsewhere in California have been part of local and state reparation efforts.
      Janie Har/AP

      CNN —

      A committee in San Francisco has released an extensive proposal for reparations that includes a one-time payment of $5 million to each eligible Black resident.

      The San Francisco African American Reparations Advisory Committee, created in 2020 under the city’s human rights commission, was tasked to develop a plan to address “the institutional, City sanctioned harm that has been inflicted upon African American communities.”

      The committee has no authority to implement its recommendations. Brittni Chicuata, director of economic rights at the San Francisco African American Reparations Advisory Committee, said the San Francisco Board of Supervisors received a draft of the 60-page proposal in late December and is expected to accept, amend or reject it. A hearing to discuss their decision has not been set yet, Chicuata added.

      The final report will be submitted in June and include the board’s feedback, Chicuata said.

      The proposal includes dozens of recommendations related to financial reparations, housing, job creation, education, the school-to-prison pipeline, health and local policy.

      To be eligible for reparations, San Francisco residents must be 18 years or older, have been identifying as Black or African American on public documents for at least 10 years, and meet two of eight additional criteria, including having been born or migrating to the city between 1940 and 1996 as well as showing proof of at least 13 years of residency; Having been incarcerated “by the failed War on Drugs” or being the direct descendant of someone who was; Being a descendant of someone who was enslaved through US chattel slavery before 1865; Having been displaced between 1954 and 1973 or being a descendant of someone who did; Being part of a marginalized group who experienced lending discrimination in the city between 1937 and 1968 or in “formerly redlined” communities within the city between 1968 and 2008, according to the committee’s plan.

      The one-time, lump sum payment of $5 million “would compensate the affected population for the decades of harms that they have experienced and will redress the economic and opportunity losses that Black San Franciscans have endured, collectively, as the result of both intentional decisions and unintended harms perpetuated by City policy,” the plan states.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/19/us/san-francisco-reparations-proposal-reaj/index.html

    2. SF African American population

      44,930 (2020)

      44,930 × $5,000,000 =

      $224,650,000,000.

      Is that alot?

      1. By contrast, San Francisco homes only lost around $40,000,000,000 last year.

        Over five times that amount seems like quite alot!

        1. The San Francisco Standard
          Business
          San Francisco Homes Lost Nearly $40 Billion in Value Last Year
          Written by Kevin Truong
          Published Feb. 22, 2023 • 10:30am
          Homes line the streets in the Dolores Heights neighborhood of San Francisco, Calif. | Camille Cohen/The Standard

          U.S. home values have continued their downward slide from the frenzied heights of last summer—and the Bay Area’s tumble is sharper and steeper than anywhere else in the country, according to a new report from real estate company Redfin.

          The total value of U.S. homes dropped by 4.9%—$2.3 trillion—from the height of the market in June to the end of 2022. That’s the largest drop over that period since 2008.

          When looking at the Bay Area specifically, San Francisco saw its home prices lose $37.3 billion in value or 6.7% of their value from December 2021 to December 2022, a larger year-over-year drop in percentage terms than any other major U.S. metropolitan area. Overall value went from $554.8 billion to $517.5 billion.

          The other two major cities in the region ranked second and third for the biggest declines nationally: Oakland and San Jose saw values fall of 4.5% and 3.2%, respectively.

          Only three other metros ranked in the country’s 100 most populous areas saw year-over-year declines, according to Redfin: New York (-1%), Seattle (-0.4%) and Boise, Idaho (-0.3%).
          …
          https://sfstandard.com/business/san-francisco-homes-lost-nearly-40-billion-in-value-last-year/

    3. After all of their real estate losses, I don’t know how San Francisco is supposed to come with over $220 bn in reparations.

  34. The Financial Times
    Twitter Inc
    Elon Musk axes more senior Twitter staff in weekend cull
    Team leaders, including Esther Crawford, among those locked out of systems or fired by email
    Elon Musk has been on a cost-cutting drive that has targeted the workforce at Twitter since he acquired the social media platform in October
    Hannah Murphy in San Francisco yesterday

    Elon Musk ordered another bruising round of jobs cuts at Twitter over the weekend, with some of its highest-profile leaders affected, as the social media platform’s chief executive continued his efforts to bring costs under control.

    Dozens of staff were let go late on Saturday evening across teams including product and business development, with some notified via email and locked out of the company’s systems, several people said.

    Among those hit were Esther Crawford, Twitter’s director of product management, who had been one of the few women at the top of the company under Musk, leading its new moneymaking initiatives, such as the Twitter Blue subscription service.

    Headcount appeared to have dropped by more than 200 people in its internal systems, according to one person familiar with the matter and as first reported by the New York Times.

    The move comes after Musk in November fired about half of Twitter’s 7,500-strong workforce and called for all who remained to sign up to an “extremely hardcore” long-hours working culture “at high intensity”.

    Twitter was acquired by Musk for $44bn last year and made the first interest payment on its $13bn of debt in January. It is in a financially precarious position after its revenues dropped sharply as advertisers fled the platform over the billionaire’s approach to content moderation.
    …

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