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It Has To Look Good, It Has To Smell Good And Expect That You’re Not Going To Get Your List Price

A report from the Daily News Record. “Next week, ownership of the nearly 81-acre and still largely vacant site of the planned Summit Crossing subdivision on the north end of town could change hands during a foreclosure sale at a public auction. At 11 a.m. Thursday, the property will be offered for sale at the Shenandoah County Circuit Courthouse in Woodstock, according to a legal notice. ‘We’ve heard from the lender that the lender has foreclosed on the developer,’ said Brian Otis, Strasburg’s planning and zoning administrator. ‘I wasn’t given a reason as to why.'”

“Cedar Valley Development’s plans for Summit Crossing included the construction of 111 townhomes in the development’s first phase and 141 single-family houses in the second and third phases. A majority of the town council approved the subdivision’s latest preliminary development plan in December 2019. Thus far, though, only a portion of road has been built on the property. No residences have been constructed. In the housing construction industry, investors looking to get out of projects is ‘not abnormal,’ Otis said.”

The Southeast Missourian. “We are to the point now — and frankly, we’ve been here for a while — that people are tired of the COVID-19 comparisons. But there’s no question real estate was one segment of our economy that was affected by the pandemic in a big way. The federal government flooded the economy with cash. The Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates, which is driving up borrowing costs for those looking to purchase homes even as list prices are declining.”

“In Poplar Bluff, the median sale price for homes in January 2023 was $123,500, down 8.5% from the previous year. The high point over the last five years was October 2022 when the median price for homes sold was $156,000. Jackson shows a median sale price of $213,000 in January 2023, down 9.57% from the previous year. Its highest point was in March when the median price reached $266,000.”

The Review Journal. “Southern Nevada builders sold far fewer homes and pulled substantially fewer permits last month than they did a year earlier, but the market overall had ‘a few glimmers of light shining through the fog,’ says a new report. But in a sign of ‘current market weakness,’ sales were still well below year-ago levels, according to the association’s chairman, Alicia Huey. Single-family homes sold for a median price of $425,000 last month, down about 2 percent from a year earlier, according to trade association Las Vegas Realtors. Southern Nevada’s median sales price has now dropped by $57,000 from a record high of $482,000 last May.”

“A total of 1,325 single-family homes traded hands last month, down about 48 percent from January 2022, and 5,450 houses were on the market without offers at the end of January, up 199 percent from a year earlier, according to the association.”

From Arizona‘s Family. “Arizona’s housing market is off to a slow start this year according to new MLS data showing Phoenix had its slowest January for home sales in 15 years. ‘In this marketplace, when we say seller’s market, it’s barely a seller’s market. So it’s not like it felt like it did in 2020 through 2022. It’s a soft seller’s market,’ Valley realtor Trevor Halpern said. Not every community is in a seller’s market, the Cromford Report says Surprise, Goodyear, Queen Creek, Maricopa, and Buckeye are all in a buyer’s market. If you’re hoping to buy this year, Halpern says you have room to negotiate.”

“According to the Cromford Report, 51% of transactions involve seller concessions meaning sellers giving the buyer some sort of credit at closing. So as a buyer in this marketplace, you still have the ability to go in and negotiate, you still have the ability to try to get a percentage off of list price.’ Halpern added. For those hoping to sell this Spring, Halpern tells Arizona’s Family you need to price your home well. ‘It has to look good, it has to smell good. It has to emote for a buyer, they have to walk in and want to buy your place and then expect there to be some negotiations, expect there to be some give and take and expect that you’re not going to get probably your list price,’ he added.”

This Garden Island. “A confluence of reluctant homebuyers and soft inventory levels led to a rough start to the new year for the County of Kaua‘i housing market. Sales of single-family residences sank to 16 in January from 52 in January 2022, according to monthly data pooled from multiple sources by the Hawai‘i Association of Realtors in Honolulu. That marked a decrease of 69.23 percent in the period, and marked the steepest percentage drop of the four major island markets featured in the monthly data.”

“At the same time, the median price of a single-family residence on Kaua‘i dropped 14.34 percent to $809,500 from $945,000. The percentage decrease was also the largest among the four islands. ‘It’s back to that logjam,’ said Jimmy Johnson, broker in charge at RE/MAX Kaua‘i, on the unwillingness of buyers to buy and sellers to sell in the first month of the year.”

“O‘ahu was the only other island to record drops in home prices and sales to start the new year. The median price for a single-family residence fell 7.62 percent to $970,000 in January from $1,050,000 in January 2022. At the same time, sales retreated 53.99 percent to 150 from 326.”

From Bisnow. “Prices for commercial properties fell at the most rapid pace since 2010 in January, with prices of apartments sinking most sharply month-over-month, a new report shows. CPPI National All-Property Index dropped 4.8% from a year ago and 2.7% from December, according to MSCI, which released the report. If the pace were to continue all year, it would result in a 27.9% annual decline, the biggest since 2010. Apartment values also took the biggest hit in that report, dropping 20% in a year with a 1% fall in the last month, Bisnow previously reported.”

The New York Post. “Is the Midtown office building half empty or half full? As the city approaches the third anniversary of COVID lockdowns, Manhattan’s skyscrapers hover around the 50% occupancy mark. Steven Roth, chief of Vornado, the commercial landlord, told investors this month that as far as the workweek goes, ‘Friday is dead forever. . . . Monday is touch and go.’ Major landlords are giving ‘the keys back to the bank’ on some buildings, particularly mid-aged buildings, as RXR’s Scott Rechler puts it.”

CBS Bay Area in California. “A new bill authored by Assemblyman Matt Haney would prevent cities from stalling or killing the conversion of empty office space into housing in an effort to utilize the state’s emptying downtowns.The bill is partially spurred by the hundreds of empty offices in downtown San Francisco. According to the commercial real estate firm CBRE, some 27 percent of San Francisco’s offices were vacant at the end of 2022. ‘How people work was permanently changed by the pandemic and the downtowns that relied on commuters are starting to look like ghost towns,’ said Haney, D-San Francisco.”

KIRO in Washington. “Even open-minded Seattle liberals have their limits. Two weeks ago, longtime listener Mike Goldenkranz saw the David Horsey cartoon in The Seattle Times – depicting a couple of super friendly Sound Transit ambassadors handing a gift to a fentanyl smoker as a bribe to get him to leave the train. And he fired off an email to me. ‘When I saw the David Horsey cartoon, light rail ambassadors politely inviting a fentanyl-smoking passenger to please leave, complete with an incentive gift, I lost it,’ Goldenkranz told me.”

“‘As a liberal Seattleite since 1980, I’ve been okay with increasing my taxes to pay for successful mental health drug rehab programs and even alternative housing for street campers. But we spent billions to try to catch up with other cities’ excellent public transit systems. Our light rail trains should not be a refuge or safe house for drug users. Paying more to have light rail Sound Transit ambassadors versus our already hired Sound Transit Police to cajole flagrant drug users off of the light rail. It’s absurd. Arrest them! Treat the problem, and invest in resources, but don’t turn our public transit into de facto pilot safe house programs.'”

The Edmonton Journal in Canada. “It’s a fine balance — at least compared with a year ago. Edmonton’s resale real estate market may be facing declining sales and prices on a year-over-year basis, but the increased balance between supply and demand today is making for a less hectic experience for many buyers and sellers. In January, the region saw 986 sales, down from 1,326 for the same month last year, a drop of nearly 26 per cent. Meanwhile, the average price was $370,068, down about six per cent year over year.”

Daily Mail Australia. “A young couple has been forced to watched their unfinished dream home rot before their eyes after their builder abandoned it for a year before finally going bust this week. Eliza Burke, 27, and partner Jai Green, 31, have put their wedding and plans to have a second child on hold since signing a $360,000 contract with Brisbane-based Pantha Homes in December 2020. More than two years later, they’re still no closer to moving into the four bedroom, two bathroom home in the coastal suburb of Newport, north of Brisbane.”

“The family has spent their life savings on legal fees and experts to try and salvage the disaster. They are already $120,000 out of pocket – and expect that will to soar to more than $150,000 even after they are bailed out by state construction industry insurance. In another blow, the final price of the couple’s home is now set to top $550,000 because of rising costs since they first signed the contract – which they may not even be able to afford. All work has stopped and they say the wooden frame is rotten with mould while the laminate is now peeling off, and weeds are growing out of the slab.”

“The couple has been in touch with several other families facing similar problems since finding out Pantha had gone bust this week. ‘For us, it was actually a relief and we can now move on,’ Ms Burke said. ‘We have our claim in with the Queensland Building and Construction Commission insurance. But there are others who have been waiting for more than three years for their home to be built – and the QBCC insurance cover runs out after two years. It’s terrible for them. These poor people will be left with absolutely nothing.'”

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  1. ‘We have our claim in with the Queensland Building and Construction Commission insurance. But there are others who have been waiting for more than three years for their home to be built – and the QBCC insurance cover runs out after two years. It’s terrible for them. These poor people will be left with absolutely nothing’

    It was cheaper than renting Eliza.

  2. ‘In Poplar Bluff, the median sale price for homes in January 2023 was $123,500, down 8.5% from the previous year. The high point over the last five years was October 2022 when the median price for homes sold was $156,000. Jackson shows a median sale price of $213,000 in January 2023, down 9.57% from the previous year. Its highest point was in March when the median price reached $266,000’

    You ever heard of these sh$tholes Jerry? I haven’t. But it’s a good thing everybody put 20% down.

    1. One of my uncles lived in Jackson decades ago, where our family used to visit his. It’s what is known as “out in the country,” as in, “Thank God I’m a country boy.”

      Places like that seeing ~10% price declines this early in the bust show just how pervasive Housing Bubble 2.0 was.

      1. “Jackson shows a median sale price of $213,000 in January 2023, down 9.57% from the previous year. Its highest point was in March when the median price reached $266,000’”

        1-(213/266)^(12/10) = 23.4% annualized rate of decline since the bubble top…

        1. They’re not talking about Jackson, WY, they’re talking about Jackson, MO. Jackson, WY house prices are over 10x that. It’s a place only the top 1% can even sniff a house.

    2. ‘In Poplar Bluff, the median sale price for homes in January 2023 was $123,500, down 8.5% from the previous year. The high point over the last five years was October 2022 when the median price for homes sold was $156,000.’

      Poplar Bluff is a big city by Jackson standards. By my math, October 2022 was only 3 months before January 2023, so the annualized rate of price decline since their peak bubble price was 1-(123.5/156)^(12/3) = 60.7%.

      Ouch!

    1. The narcos run Mexico. It is a failed state. They have infiltrated and gained control of the entire police, military, justice and political systems. To allow this to happen right on our border while simultaneously frittering away trillions of dollars in the middle east may be the death blow to the US.

      Why? Because they have expanded their operations so far into the US that they are now buying off all the right people in our system as well. Unless this is stopped, we will become Mexico. Yet, there’s been zero effort to address it.

      Just yesterday I was reading a story about the narcos setting up shop in the small coastal Oregon town of Seaside, peddling their meth. It’s easier for them to operate where there is less of a police presence. The sheriff there busted a narco who had been deported at least a handful of times under many different aliases. These are bad, bad hombres. Even the pictures are sinister looking.

  5. The federal government flooded the economy with cash.

    No, the criminal private banking cartel called the Federal Reserve flooded the financial system with $9 trillion in created-out-of-thin-air funny money.

  6. This article written with the tone of someone who is trying to escape the noose.

    Washington Post — We are asking the wrong question about the origins of covid (2/27/2023):

    “At this point, a far more useful analysis would focus on what should be done to prevent future pandemics in the case that either hypothesis is true.”

    Future pandemics = to paraphrase Orwell, a boot stomping on your face, forever.

    “It’s possible — and even likely — that we might never have the definitive answer of what caused covid-19. Doubling down on a hypothesis might score political points, but it doesn’t solve the problem of how to keep humans safe. So instead, let’s adopt an “all of the above” strategy”

    https://archive.is/mqz7m

    How to keep humans safe = the complete destruction of all of your freedoms, forever.

    There will be no “pandemic amnesty” only nooses. And yes, many of those nooses are reserved for journalists, because you are guilty of participating in a MEDICAL GENOCIDE.

  7. 𝗖𝘂𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿, 𝗢𝗥 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟰% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗽 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗔 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸

    https://www.movoto.com/culver-or/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘊𝘶𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “𝘏𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘰𝘸𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘦𝘥.”

  8. “As long as it takes” = until the United States is bankrupt.

    Washington Post Editorial Board — Facing a long war, Ukraine needs Western fighter jets (2/27/2023):

    “Dithering over weapons for Ukraine is likely to translate into stalemate, which serves Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interests. The Kremlin dictator believes that his determination to subjugate Ukraine will outlast the West’s patience to stand steadfast with Kyiv. If he is right, U.S. and NATO credibility, influence and prestige will be irreparably damaged. Mr. Biden deepens the risk of that damage by withholding fighter jets, which could provide protection for Ukrainian forces and help deter further Russian aggression.

    Unfortunately, the West has to think in terms of years. Even if Russian forces were pushed back to the lines that prevailed before Mr. Putin’s full-scale invasion a year ago — even if they were driven out of Ukraine entirely — the West would be wise to regard the threat from Moscow as an indefinite feature of the security landscape.”

    https://archive.is/deeJr

    An indefinite feature?

    U.S. taxpayers you are being robbed. Enjoy paying $7 a gallon for gas this summer.

        1. Gas is $4.19 in this part of Colorado.

          Gas will be $7 *this summer* is what I wrote. Every shekel given to Zelensky is theft from U.S. taxpayers.

    3. Dithering over weapons for Ukraine is likely to translate into stalemate

      Stalemate? That’s a rosy assessment. Bakhmut is pretty much surrounded at this point and about to be Mariupol 2.0. They’ve gone from “Russia is losing” to “well we might arrive at a stalemate”. It won’t be long before reality can’t be denied any longer and the infighting will start uS military and intelligence will start distancing themselves from Ukrainian failures by saying Ukrainian generals weren’t following their sage guidance. Western military experts were ridiculing Russian tactics as outdated and inefficient and no match for the high tech precision weapons the west was providing. They also promoted this ridiculous idea that Russia would get demoralized and give up. Russians have been demoralized for centuries. It’s kind of their thing. A sort of national past time. It’s like a threatening a masochist with more punishment.

  10. Free sh*tters gonna free sh*t:

    “Despite the cold, borrowers gathered outside the Supreme Court Monday to demonstrate in favor of the Biden administration’s forgiveness plan. More than 35 million student loan borrowers could benefit from the policy, and have up to $20,000 of their debt forgiven. If implemented, an estimated $400 billion in debt would be wiped out.

    But the program has been on hold since the fall, when a federal appeals court panel in St. Louis issued a temporary injunction barring it from taking effect. The Supreme Court has kept that injunction in place as it considers challenges to the plan, and the government on its own accord stopped taking applications for the program in November.

    The Supreme Court is hearing two separate cases Tuesday on Biden’s debt relief plan.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/28/supreme-court-student-loan-borrowers-praise-biden-plan.html

    GET. A. JOB.

    1. Yeah if I was staring down student loans I wouldn’t be protesting during the work week. But I actually pay my obligations, which in some ways makes me a sucker.

      1. There was three full years of no interest that your payments would go entirely to principal balance reduction. What a gift!

        1. So true! But for some reason, many college “educated” people in the USA don’t seem to comprehend things like loans and principals etc.

    2. All this BS debt forgiveness/forbearance nonsense has created so much moral hazard and degenerate behavior that entire generations have changed their behaviors.

      It has been widely reported that once the auto loan forbearance program kicked in, people were rushing into car dealerships, buying a new car no matter what the payment, then calling the lender before they even made a single payment saying they could not pay. And they were approved! Because EVERYBODY was approved for forbearance.

    2. History repeats.

      “A Canadian Parliamentary committee is recommending lawmakers legalize euthanasia for sick and disabled children or those in Canada’s child welfare system. They think those whose deaths are what they consider ‘reasonably foreseeable’ should be able to end their own lives.”

    1. America’s ranks of so-called 401(k) millionaires are diminishing following last year’s stock market rout.

      The number of 401(k) accounts with at least $1 million in retirement savings fell 32% last year, to 299,000, from 442,000 in 2021, according to new data from Fidelity Investments.

      The shrinking number of 401(k) millionaires comes after the S&P 500 tumbled 19.4% last year and entered the longest bear market since the 2008 financial crisis. The downturn has marked a sharp departure from the prior decade, when a bull market buoyed investment portfolios and appeared to place a comfortable retirement within reach for many workers.

      The average balance in a 401(k) plan tumbled 20.5% in 2022, reducing the typical employee nest egg to $103,900 at the end of 2022, according to Fidelity.

      Anxieties about retirement are on the rise after last year’s tough conditions, which included inflation hitting a 40-year high, experts say. One recent study found that workers now expect they will need $1.25 million for a comfortable retirement — a 20% jump from 2021.

      With the decline in retirement savings, the “retirement gap” — the discrepancy between the amount of money people need to fund their golden years compared with what they’ve actually saved — is growing wider. And the challenge is greater when many workers are struggling to pay for basics like food and shelter, let alone plan for retirement.
      …
      Notably, stashing away $1 million or more in a 401(k) plan is rare. Only about 1.4% of 401(k) accounts at the financial services firm had more than $1 million in assets at the end of 2022, according to Fidelity data.

      Fidelity also noted it has seen a decline in the number of IRA accounts with at least $1 million in assets. At the end of 2022, there were 280,320 such accounts, down 25% from a year earlier.
      …
      https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/america-s-401-k-millionaires-have-plunged-by-a-third/ar-AA17TTAj

    2. More Americans now think they need at least $1 million to retire. Here are the 10 US states where that amount will last the longest.
      Matthew Loh
      Feb 28, 2023, 12:01 AM
      A granddaughter shows her grandfather how to use a tablet.
      MoMo Productions/Getty Images

      – Studies show more Americans are starting to expect needing $1 million to retire comfortably.
      – A new analysis by GoBankingRates compared how long those savings will last a retiree in each state.
      – The longest that $1 million can last in savings is around 22 years and 8 months, the analysis said.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/where-one-million-dollar-retirement-savings-lasts-longest-states-2023-2

      1. The longest that $1 million can last in savings is around 22 years…

        Can’t make it on $45K, and SSI? Must be a major league debt donkey.

        1. I think the inflation is scaring allot of people. How much continue working and getting 3% annual raises is going to help ? IDK ?

  14. People who want to have a regular life, live normally and raise a family move to the Seattle suburbs (or the outskirt neighbourhoods of Seattle. The remaining super-woke (who live in the trendy neighbourhoods like queen ann or even parts of ballard – or in downtown condos) —- and they have a huge impact on Seattle politics. Regular folks are thus forced to subsidize Sound Transit (and dozens of other agencies) and their stupid woke policies.

    “‘As a liberal Seattleite since 1980, I’ve been okay with increasing my taxes to pay for successful mental health drug rehab programs and even alternative housing for street campers. But we spent billions to try to catch up with other cities’ excellent public transit systems. Our light rail trains should not be a refuge or safe house for drug users. Paying more to have light rail Sound Transit ambassadors versus our already hired Sound Transit Police to cajole flagrant drug users off of the light rail. It’s absurd. Arrest them! Treat the problem, and invest in resources, but don’t turn our public transit into de facto pilot safe house programs.’”

    1. I’ve been okay with increasing my taxes
      We fundamentally disagree here. I never am, nor will I ever be, ok with Governments increasing my taxes. Oh, and no, “temporary taxes” are never temporary. Once they start it never ends.

    1. The Financial Times
      Eurozone inflation
      Rising inflation in France and Spain fuels fears of more ECB rate increases
      Persistent price pressures in leading economies drive rise in eurozone governments’ borrowing costs
      A supermarket shopper in Barcelona. Spanish consumer price growth in February accelerated to 6.1%, up from 5.9% in January
      Martin Arnold in Frankfurt 3 hours ago

      Inflation rebounded in France and Spain in February, sending European governments’ borrowing costs up as doubts increased over how quickly the European Central Bank will stop raising interest rates.

      French consumer prices rose 7.2 per cent in the year to February, driven to the highest rate since the euro was launched in 1999 by faster increases in food and services prices. Economists polled by Reuters had expected French inflation to stagnate at January’s 7 per cent level.

      Spanish consumer price growth in February accelerated to 6.1 per cent, up from 5.9 per cent in January and above economists’ expectations for a fall to 5.5 per cent, despite the government cutting food taxes in January.
      …

    2. is 1.2 trillion allot ?

      In late May, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that annual net interest costs would total $399 billion in 2022 and nearly triple over the upcoming decade, soaring from $442 billion to $1.2 trillion and summing to $8.1 trillion over that period.

    3. Markets
      DOW 32,656.70 -0.71%
      S&P 500 3,970.15 -0.30%
      NASDAQ 11,455.54 -0.10%

      Fear & Greed Index
      Bad sign for stocks: Bond yields are white hot again
      By Nicole Goodkind, CNN
      Published 7:56 AM EST, Tue February 28, 2023
      Rising bond yields trigger Wall Street sell-off

      New York CNN —

      2022 was the worst year on record for bonds. Despite a promising start, 2023 is starting to look rough, too.

      The recent global bond rally appears to be tapering off as investors are getting a cold wet dose of reality about Fed rate hikes.

      Bad news for bonds could spell bad news for stocks: Bond yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices, represent the opportunity cost of investing in equities — if a bond is yielding more than equities, it’s generally more attractive, because it comes with less risk than stocks. After all, Treasuries are backed by the US government. Bonds compete with stocks for investors’ dollars, and when yields go up, equities often go down.

      What’s happening: Persistent inflation and strong economic data signals that interest rates are going higher and will stay there for longer. That tonal shift has sent stocks lower and Treasury yields higher, as investors rethink their views on the path of interest rates. US stocks had their worst week of the year last week, and Monday’s feel-good rebound fizzled out at the end of the day.

      Just look at US short-term bonds, which closely track investors’ interest rate expectations: Two-year yields began Monday at their highest level since July 2007, before easing a bit.

      What went wrong: Wall Street jumped head first into the bond market during the first few weeks of 2023, sending yields lower, as investors became convinced that the Federal Reserve’s painful rate hiking regimen would finally be coming to an end.

      After a particularly tough 2022 (US Treasuries recorded their worst year in history), investors reversed course. Falling yields pushed up stocks, creating the giddy highs we saw, but that all reversed in February when we got the good news/bad news on jobs and retail sales data. The bond market (and equities) have now basically done a 180.

      The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased toward 4% last week, the highest it’s been since 2008. Last week also marked the first time in 2023 that returns on Treasury investments have turned negative.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/28/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

      1. “The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased toward 4% last week, the highest it’s been since 2008.”

        I once checked the correlattion between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields. It was 99% or so, the last time I checked.

        1. Yahoo
          Business Insider
          US home prices could tumble nearly 20% and Fed economists warn further rate hikes risk an even worse housing correction: ‘The bubble hypothesis merits attention’
          Phil Rosen
          Tue, February 28, 2023 at 9:56 AM PST·2 min read

          – Dallas Fed economists warned of a 19.5% housing market correction in a Tuesday research report.

          – In their view, given the steep growth of price-to-rent ratios, among other factors, “the bubble hypothesis merits attention.”

          – “The possibility of a domino effect, where investors pull out of international housing seeking safety and liquidity elsewhere, also raises concerns of spillovers beyond Germany or the US to the global economy.”

          The US housing market faces a potential 19.5% correction, and more rate hikes from the central bank could make a crash even worse, Dallas Federal Reserve economists warned in a Tuesday research report.

          The global housing market has become frothy since 2020 as a result of the pandemic boom, according to authors Lauren Black and Enrique Martínez-García, and there’s still a risk of a deep housing slide despite signs of easing home-price growth.

          Drawing parallels between the US and Germany, the economists added that some of the housing market froth can be attributed to the affordability crisis, though house-price-to-rent ratios in particular pose reason for concern. The ratio measures the profitability of housing as an investment opportunity.

          “[I]f the observed price-to-rent ratio grows at an explosive rate relative to its fundamental-based ratio estimated with long-term interest rate and rent growth data, the bubble hypothesis merits attention,” they said.

          For the US housing market to return to its fundamentals, they estimated that a 19.5% correction would be necessary.

          There were signs that the US price-to-rent ratio began to fall in third quarter as prices cooled faster than rents, they added.

          For now, a modest housing correction remains the baseline scenario, but the authors warned that more hawkish monetary policy could trigger a steeper correction.

          “The possibility of a domino effect, where investors pull out of international housing seeking safety and liquidity elsewhere, also raises concerns of spillovers beyond Germany or the US to the global economy,” Black and Martínez-García wrote.

          The Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle has pushed mortgage rates higher over the last year, hitting 7% in October. Earlier this month, mortgage rates fell back near 6% but are heading back up again.
          …
          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-prices-could-tumble-175620352.html

        2. correlattion between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields.
          The movement in the 10 year directly effects pricing, however, sometimes if rates rose we wouldn’t raise rates or fees, instead we might use the increase in competitors rates/fees to try and generate more volume. Or conversely, we would not lower rates/fees if the 10 year fell when we to increase margins/slow volume.

    4. The Financial Times
      Man Group PLC
      Inflation will remain high in volatile markets, warns hedge fund chief
      Man Group boss Luke Ellis says investors must get used to significant moves up and down in markets
      Man Group boss Luke Ellis: ‘It will take a lot of years before inflation is put to bed again’
      Laurence Fletcher in London
      14 hours ago

      Inflation will remain high because of strong wage growth in much more volatile markets, the head of one of the world’s biggest hedge funds predicted on Tuesday.

      Man Group chief executive Luke Ellis told the Financial Times investors needed to get used to volatility with significant moves up and down.

      “It will take a lot of years before inflation is put to bed again. We’re in a different paradigm,” said Ellis.
      …

  20. NPR — People who think they’re attractive are less likely to wear masks, a study shows (2/28/2023):

    “The more attractive a person perceives themselves, the less likely they were to wear a mask because they thought the mask made them less attractive. Inversely, the less attractive someone found themselves, the more likely they were to wear a mask, according to the study in the Frontiers of Psychology journal published in late January.”

    https://www.npr.org/2023/02/28/1160009021/mask-wearing-attractiveness-study

    I see people wearing a mask while driving alone around Denver almost every single day.

    “They’re not sending their best”

  23. Grabbers gonna grab.

    Colorado Sun — Colorado Democrats unveil their proposed expansion of the state’s red flag gun law (2/23/2023):

    “Health care providers, district attorneys and teachers would be added to the list of people who can ask a judge to order the temporary seizure of someone’s firearms in Colorado …

    Despite the opposition, the measures should otherwise cruise through the Democratic-controlled Colorado General Assembly. Gov. Jared Polis appears to support the bills unveiled Thursday.”

    https://coloradosun.com/2023/02/23/red-flag-law-expansion-colorado/

    1. what would be more effective would be a mandatory sentence for the possession of illegal guns, say 5 years no bail for each illegal gun 10 years for each gun with the serial numbers filed off, and double everything if you have priors and even if you are minor.

      then add more time if you actually use it in a crime.

      1. You think they’re going for “effective”? LOL they’re coming after everyone’s guns, one stupid law at a time.

      2. How about we focus on actual crimes, like hurting people and stealing stuff, not just mere possession of something that might theoretically be used to commit a crime.

  24. “Health care providers, district attorneys and teachers would be added to the list of people who can ask a judge to order the temporary seizure of someone’s firearms in Colorado”

    Who was already on the list dog walkers, pest control workers and disgruntled ex-spouses?

  26. 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗹, 𝗙𝗟 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟬% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗩𝗮𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗽 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗔 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸

    https://www.movoto.com/cape-coral-fl/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘥𝘢 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “𝘏𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘰𝘸𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘴. 𝘉𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦, 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘋𝘦𝘣𝘵𝘋𝘰𝘯𝘬𝘦𝘺𝘴.”

  27. CNBC
    REAL ESTATE
    Home price gains weakened sharply to end 2022, according to S&P Case-Shiller
    PUBLISHED TUE, FEB 28 2023 9:00 AM EST
    UPDATED 51 MIN AGO
    Diana Olick

    KEY POINTS
    – Higher mortgage rates weighed on home price gains in December.
    – Home prices in December were 5.8% higher than the previous December, according to S&P Case-Shiller. That’s down from a 7.6% annual gain in November.
    – Prices are now 4.4% below their June peak.
    …

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      Property Report
      Apartment Rents Fall as Crush of New Supply Hits Market
      Declines signal tenants may be maxed out on how much income they can devote to rent
      You may also like
      Should You Rent or Buy a Home?
      Economists have long said that renting and investing in the stock market is a better investment than owning a house, and in 2022 that could be especially true. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains.
      By Will Parker
      Updated Feb. 27, 2023 2:00 pm ET

      Apartment rents fell in every major metropolitan area in the U.S. over the past six months through January, a trend that is poised to continue as the biggest delivery of new apartments in nearly four decades is slated for this year.

      Renters with new leases in January paid a median rent that was 3.5% lower than they would have paid last August, according to estimates from listing website Apartment List. It was the first time in five years that rent fell every month over a six-month period, according to the same estimates.
      …

      1. “Apartment rents fell in every major metropolitan area in the U.S. over the past six months through January, a trend that is poised to continue as the biggest delivery of new apartments in nearly four decades is slated for this year.”

        Falling rents along side falling home prices are major demand killers in the home purchase market. Where is the urgency to buy if your rent is falling and buying a home means catching a falling knife?

    2. Discourse Real Estate
      Why your rent is about to fall
      Tenants are finally gaining power in the housing market
      An illustration of green branches reaching towards the center of the image. Each branch is filled with keys of different shapes and sizes.
      Robyn Phelps/Insider
      JR
      James Rodriguez
      Feb 27, 2023, 3:02 AM

      It’s been a painful couple of years for renters.

      Discounts from early in the pandemic, for those lucky enough to nab them, eventually gave way to hefty rent hikes. Lines for apartment viewings stretched for city blocks, and bidding wars erupted. Across the country, the rallying cry remained the same: The rent is too damn high.

      Look closely, though, and you’ll see that 2023 is shaping up to be the year that tenants claw back bargaining power from landlords. It may not feel that way just yet, but double-digit rent increases and eye-watering lease demands are now a thing of the past. RealPage, a real-estate-software company, declared in a report last month that the market was “rapidly shifting in favor of renters.” A rise in the number of empty apartments, a decline in the number of people looking for a place of their own, and a coming influx of apartment supply will force landlords to compete more fiercely for tenants. And when landlords compete, tenants win — with concessions like months of free rent, free parking, and gift cards.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/rent-decline-fall-apartment-housing-market-landlords-tenant-lease-construction-2023-3

  29. The San Diego Union-Tribune
    Business
    San Diego home sales fall to lowest level in 35 years
    Single-family model homes at KB Home’s Ridgeview housing complex in San Marcos.
    Home prices in San Diego County keep dropping.
    Pictured: Newly built single-family model homes at KB Home’s Ridgeview housing complex in San Marcos. The homes are selling for more than $1 million.
    (Kristian Carreon/For The San Diego Union-Tribune)
    San Diego County’s median was down for the eighth month in a row. Annual gains were nearly completely erased.
    By Phillip Molnar
    Feb. 28, 2023 5:30 AM PT

    January is typically a slow month for home sales in San Diego — but it’s never been this slow.

    There were 1,682 home sales in January, CoreLogic reported Tuesday, which was the lowest ever recorded in data going back to 1988. Before this, the slowest month was 1,742 sales in February 1995, when much of the nation’s housing market was going through a steady period of a decline after a run-up in prices in the late 1980s.

    Unlike other times when the real estate market shifted — like the Great Recession — people aren’t losing their homes due to unemployment. Instead, looking to hold on to lower interest rates, today’s homeowners are staying put — dropping the number of homes for sale to almost their lowest level in three years. Meanwhile, rising interest rates are making what homes are available unaffordable for many buyers.

    San Diego County’s median home price — which includes resale single-family, condos, townhouses and newly built homes — fell for the eighth month to $750,750. That’s down from a peak of $850,000 in May.
    …
    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2023-02-28/san-diego-home-sales-fall-to-lowest-level-in-35-years

    1. “Before this, the slowest month was 1,742 sales in February 1995, when much of the nation’s housing market was going through a steady period of a decline after a run-up in prices in the late 1980s.”

      That’s an interesting comparison point, as February 1995 was almost five years in from the onset of a brutal recession that left many heads of household on the unemployment line and unable to keep paying their mortgages.

      This time is different…no recession, historically low unemployment, yet home sales down to a historically low trickle. And the home price declines keep coming, month in, month out…drip, drip, drip.

      1. 1 million more people live in San Diego County now compared to 1988 so this drop in sales is much more significant. Think of how many extra realTARDS need to be fed now. And the children, think of the children! Sad!

    2. “The homes are selling for more than $1 million.”

      The homes aren’t selling for more than $1 million. Fixed the typo

    3. Orange County Register
      Southern California home sales fall to all-time low
      The region’s housing slump continued through January, with home sales down 43% and prices falling below year-ago levels for the first time in almost four years, CoreLogic figures show.
      (Photo by Mindy Schauer, Orange County Register/SCNG)
      By Jeff Collins | Orange County Register
      PUBLISHED: February 28, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. | UPDATED: February 28, 2023 at 6:44 p.m.

      When Christmas lights go up, home sales typically go down as buyers and sellers take a break.

      But this past Christmas, Santa delivered a giant lump of coal to Southern California’s housing market, as well as to real estate agents, lenders, escrow officers and anyone else who gets paid by the transaction.

      Closed sales this past January — which reflect deals signed during the holiday season — fell to 9,938, the lowest number of transactions in records dating back 35 years, real estate data firm CoreLogic reported Tuesday, Feb. 28.

      An average January has about 17,000 closings.

      “It’s always going to be slow (during the holidays). But not that slow,” Compass agent Ken Osborn said Sunday at an open house in Long Beach. “That’s why we go back to the basics. Meeting people. Talking to people. Holding open houses.”

      January’s sales tally was down 42.8% from January 2022, when homes were selling twice as fast. Sales have dropped from year-ago levels for 14 consecutive months.

      Prices also have been dropping on a monthly basis, falling for eight straight months, CoreLogic figures show.

      The median price of a Southern California home — or the price at the midpoint of all sales — fell to $670,000 in January, CoreLogic reported.

      That’s down $90,000 from the price peak reached last spring, and down $500 from January 2022.

      It was the first year-over-year price drop in almost four years.

      A year ago, prices were up almost 13%, and most sellers were getting more than they were asking. Now, most homes are selling below their asking price and averaging more than eight weeks on the market, Redfin numbers show.

      The doubling of mortgage rates last year was the key culprit for this housing turnaround.

      Even though home prices are lower, the monthly mortgage payment increased 38% over the past year thanks to higher interest rates.

      “Southern California housing markets continue to be challenged by high mortgage rates and eroded affordability,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp. “The challenge is further exacerbated by a standoff between buyers and sellers, with buyers expecting better deals and sellers still expecting to receive last year’s prices.”

      It’s all about mortgage rates in the housing market, Reports On Housing author Steve Thomas wrote in his latest report. For example, a buyer able to afford a $1.02 million home when rates were 3.25% could only afford a $741,000 home when rates hit 6%.

      “Demand diminishes due to affordability constraints, and any sellers opt to hunker down as they enjoy their underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgages,” he said.
      …
      https://www.ocregister.com/2023/02/28/southern-california-home-sales-fall-to-all-time-low/

      1. “Even though home prices are lower, the monthly mortgage payment increased 38% over the past year thanks to higher interest rates.”

        Sounds like incomes will have to go up by 38%, or home prices will have to come down by a comparable amount.

        Any thoughts on which is more likely to occur?

  30. Much like Seattle, in Salt Lake City the light rail system is a refuge for the homeless. They live there. And the liberals that run the county was to make it free to ride!

    1. See also: Denver.

      RTD buses and light rail are a great place to get out of the wind and smoke some foilies!

    2. Much like Seattle, in Salt Lake City the light rail system is a refuge for the homeless.
      According to some reports, Chicago’s homeless live in the airport. Only about 3 miles, as the crow flies, from where i grew up.

  31. Talking heads are saying that the Department of Defense was responsible for the Covid vaccine response. It’s called “countermeasures” and prototypes where all the rules change .
    Basically it means that the DOD ordered the Pharmacy Companies to make the vaccines without the normal requirements .Apparently over the years they kept changing the rules to set it up that the DOD could launch a prototype or countermeasure to a perceived threat, that doesn’t have to go through the safety and effective requirements.
    So, these researchers are saying the
    Government and Media lied to you when they put on this big show that the vaccines were even subject to FDA /CDC approval.

    So, these researchers are saying this DOD operation violateSo, other laws like you can’t release a bio weapon or DOD crimes agaist humanity .Also one analysis was that countermeasure could be stopped
    in every State where DA’s have power to stop countermeasure fake vaccines. ..
    . it looks like some part of our military was inflitrated and.. corrupted by a enemy that was out to harm and genocide and and destroy economy as destruction
    So, just saying

    1. The Day Of The Rope is coming.

      If you participated in this medical genocide, there is a noose waiting with your name on it…

      1. You’ve been saying that for years. I see no progress toward anything of the sort. I don’t even see anyone losing their comfy government or media jobs because of it.

        Who is going to be applying this rope?

    1. I interviewed at Intel around 2001. Many of the employees were so certain that Intel’s stock price was going back to the moon that they exercised their options without selling the shares. I don’t think it worked out for them either.

      1. I worked telecom at turn of the century (which sounds weird to say) and I only got a few options and I exercised and sold them as soon as i could. I got a few thousand bucks the first quarter and about a $1000 total the 2nd quarter and after that worthless. Everyone else said I was stupid and should be like them and exercise them and not sell the shares so i would only be taxed on capital gains and not on income. ……………..

        Yeah, I’m probably one of the very few who actually got some money out of the options. Most of them all ended with nothing. (company was Level 3 which I don’t think even exists anymore).

        1. I had some stock options at a semiconductor materials company before the turn of the century. There was some weird condition that employees could not actually sell such stock. I quit the company as they pressed me to run an off-shoring fab in Asia. Sold the stock and got sued. Lawyer reminded the SOBs that I was no longer an employee and that was the end of it.

        2. I believe Level 3 was eventually bought by CenturyLink for over $30B. You may have sold a tad early.

  33. Amazon’s unhappy employees are stamping their feet about coming back to the office.

    One worker said they’d recently leased a car with an annual limit of 16,000 miles assuming remote work was still an option; if they’re required to come into the office at least three days a week, they’ll exceed that limit.

    Others took the company’s previous flexible work stance as an opportunity to move outside major cities to find more affordable housing and are now concerned about their commute.

    Thought remote work was permanent eh?

  34. Keep paying those federal income taxes, cattle tax slaves:

    “The war in Ukraine has great meaning, both symbolic and real, as the frontline in a much larger global struggle between the western liberal democratic project and autocracy and neofascism as embodied by Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Jair Bolsonaro, Recep Erdoğan, Narendra Modi, and the Trumpists, Republican-fascists, and the larger white right here in the United States.”

    https://www.salon.com/2023/02/28/numbers-start-to-become-meaningless-massive-toll-after-one-year-of-in-ukraine/

    The author of this piece, Chauncey Devega, has a home address. I’ve seen it posted on 4chan but don’t need to share it here, if you want it you can find it for yourself ☠️

  36. I am starting to see foreclosure listing popping up on Zillow that look like flippers caught with their pants down.

    1. That is such an awesome blast from the past.🤣Especially at 1:40.

      Meanwhile….. the Dow….. It’s cratering…🤣🤣🤣❤️👍

  39. A reader sent these in:

    The uptick in both headline & core PCE was widely noted. But the strong increase in real consumer spending, seeing the largest increase in two years (!) is what really shows the current economic strength. No one’s who followed this feed is surprised at this. Charts from the WSJ.

    https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/1629988156568227841

    CarDealershipGuy

    What you see: Shiny new Cadillac Escalade
    What I see: 84-months of $1,000+ payments

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1629987231698919424

    An Austin house listed for $400k in July 2022. It’s listed for $230k today. It’s happening.

    https://twitter.com/FilledWithMoney/status/1629954799016857610

    Gen Z has an average of $33,000 saved for retirement, per Forbes.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1629874177997164546

    Phoenix, AZ

    https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1629508210913845250

    John Wake

    “Anonymous Owner, L.L.C.: Why It Has Become So Easy to Hide in the Housing Market”
    Good discussion of the downsides of landlords owning their rentals as LLCs. “92 percent of rental properties in America back in 1991 were held by individual owners”

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1630350498485407744

    Lance Lambert

    Tomorrow we get Case-Shiller’s final 2022 national home price reading. If December 2022 is negative, it’ll mark 6 straight months of decline
    Prior to the negative reading in July 2022, we had went 124 straight months with positive month-over-month national home price growth

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1630342674942132224

    I’m still waiting for people to direct their anger and frustration at the RBA for creating the TFF (aka giving the banks $188bn in funding at just 0.1%). This was always going to lead to a painful adjustment akin to some of the largest rate hike cycles in Aussie history.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1630331966322282497

    John Wake

    “In Phoenix, the nearly 47,000 units at the same stage of development will expand the supply by 12%. ”

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1630325490757300224

    Real Estate tycoon Sam Zell says inflation isn’t going anywhere, and the Fed’s screwed things up badly by holding interest rates at zero for too long.

    https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1630317965261303812

    SF lost an estimated 147,303 office workers during the pandemic and switch to remote work, new city report says:

    https://twitter.com/rolandlisf/status/1630274666114740224

    The Kobeissi Letter

    So far, we’ve had:

    1. January CPI above expectations
    2. January PPI above expectations
    3. January jobs above expectations
    4. January PCE above expectations and RISING
    5. December CPI/PCE “revised” higher
    Imagine if February CPI shows rising inflation.
    It won’t be pretty.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1630299137617850369

    A $400k mortgage at 2.75% is $1.6k/mo.
    A $250k mortgage at 6.75% is $1.6k/mo
    Price has to decline by 37.5% for the same monthly payment.
    This isn’t good.

    https://twitter.com/FilledWithMoney/status/1630275639558250496

    Diana Olick

    A rush of homes go under contract in January, but it’s unlikely to last

    https://twitter.com/DianaOlick/status/1630229155785887747

    Subprime auto mass bankruptcy now part of bullish thesis:
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tip-negative-equity-iceberg-record-173000474.html
    “The percentage of borrowers at least 60 days late on their car payments is higher today than it was during the peak of the Great Recession in 2009”

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1630305401978626052

    CarDealershipGuy

    $111K Jeep 🙃 welcome to 2023

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1630206403326386176

    and in 2.5 years you slam the door a little too hard, and the whole car falls apart

    https://twitter.com/TheMaverickWS/status/1630305830712262656

    If no one has standing to sue President Biden over unilaterally stopping collection of $400 billion of student debt, who will be able stop the next President from stopping collection on trillions of dollars in tax revenue? Great piece by @BudgetBen

    https://twitter.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1630302747982536713

    When you buy a self storage property with a 5.5% cap rate, increase rents by 200%, get rid of the fax machine and do a refinance cash out in six months.

    https://twitter.com/TrackInflation/status/1630236211595059202

    The 2-Year US Treasury yield has moved up to 4.78%, its highest level since July 2007. A year ago this yield was at 1.54% and two years ago it was at 0.12%.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1630073698169368576

    God forbid rates stay higher for longer forcing ponzi scheme asset prices to collapse and capital to chase actual production/innovation increasing jobs and wages. That means rich people will have to *gasp* actually work again

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1629963887482380289

    QE was the biggest mistake, the biggest inequality generator (outside PPP) in history. Literally stole the American Dream from a generation.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1630220169128853504

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Since August, “none of the 52-largest metro areas tracked by ⁦@ApartmentList ⁩ experienced positive rent growth over the period.”
    Let that sink in as highest supply since 1986 floods market.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1630283225179344896

    Clown Powell is losing the fight against inflation as financial conditions continue to loosen

    https://twitter.com/TheMaverickWS/status/1630236341324890114

    We had the opportunity to stop historic inflation punishing poor people, instead AOC wanted to keep the party going for the rich a little longer. Here’s @AOC 2021

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1599666034520518656

    Home affordability has dropped to levels roughly 3 times worse than during the GFC. Home stats have become troubling. Source: Morgan Stanley

    https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1630264229134577664

    We’ve still got a long way to go to affordability, but this is for all the people who said, “rents never go down” (and perhaps bought rental properties based on this premise)

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1630192788930215936

    How is this guy not in jail? They should vote a Cramer law that outlaws this level of reckless dispensation of napalm in the guise of financial advise. Seriously. I know everyone on here considers him a comedian, but am sure lots if people rely on his expert advise…

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1630231993081380867

    Pace of Fed QT is non commensurate with path of inflation. Fact this has not gotten more airtime at Fed pressers shows how incompetent the gallery is. While this is important, much more alarming is the abysmal deficit. Inflation has zero odds of abating with these two unfixed.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1630092640623423489

    New inventory concessions will lead reluctant, but struggling passive income STR and LTR holders to the market and prices will come ⬇️.
    Buyers: Be wary of buying in new developments that will sit 1/2 empty for the next 3 yrs

    https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1630326855411589120

    U.S. credit card delinquency rate is rapidly increasing among millienial.. buy now & default later Wall Street Journal

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1630186301986160647

    Global bonds have officially erased all YTD gains.. investors still believe inflation is transitory

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1630130853001953281

    Australia Recession Risk Rises as RBA Seen Hiking More Than Fed – https://bloomberg.com

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1629993413083799557

    21% YoY increase price for food in U.K.

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1629877743687983107

    Bernie used to challenge the Fed (Ron Paul was easily the best.) Now he’s just a neutered DNC lapdog. And I doubt AOC even knows who the Fed chair is.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1630266248666955776

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    A bit of context via @pboockvar on that huge upside in pending home sales @Ivy_Zelman rightly foresaw as having big upside: “Mortgage rates averaged 6.26% in January vs 6.60% in Q4 and vs 6.62% as of last week.” In airline parlance, it’s called a “roundtrip.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1630226088914829314

    Can someone tell me why Janet Yellen went to Ukraine – asking for a fren

    https://twitter.com/judahrhodie/status/1630373391008931843

    1. But the strong increase in real consumer spending, seeing the largest increase in two years (!) is what really shows the current economic strength.

      They overheated the economy with all the money-printing, and it’s still overheated. All of the msm warnings last year of an imminent economic collapse due to the FED raising rates were from the greedy billionaire pigs who didn’t want their asset prices to fall. The FED needs to hike even more aggressively right now.

      1. Billionaire globalist as FED is destroying the working class and poor with asset bubbles: “Gosh, we really feel badly for them.”

        Billionaire globalist as FED hikes rates and cuts into their wealth while helping middle class and poor: “They’re just destroying everything. They’re gonna burn it all down.”

    2. QE was the biggest mistake, the biggest inequality generator (outside PPP) in history. Literally stole the American Dream from a generation.

      And yet it was instituted by the supposed party of equity, inclusion and “the little guy.”

    3. Is it time to light up the Twitter Cluck Clucks and Bray Brays again? They’re still spinning, gyrating and lashing out over the last 3 months of proving them liars.

    1. MARKETS INSIDER
      Morgan Stanley’s chief stock strategist warns that the 2023 rally is a ‘bull trap’ and pain is coming for investors in March
      Jennifer Sor Feb 28, 2023, 2:16 PM
      Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shortly after the opening bell in New York, U.S., August 30, 2016. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo
      Traders work on the floor of the NYSE Thomson Reuters

      – The rally in stocks is a “bull trap” and investors have more pain coming, Morgan Stanley warned.
      – That’s because earnings-per-share estimates over the next year haven’t bottomed yet, and neither have stocks.
      – The downside could come as soon as March, as the S&P 500 is at a critical testing point.
      …

  42. Shock Video: Cashier Beaten by Mob at NYC Grocery Market

    by Dan Lyman
    February 28th 2023, 2:26 pm

    Lisbel Rodriguez Luna, 25, was working a register at Food Universe in the Fordham Manor neighborhood when multiple females suspects — some of whom are reportedly related — charged inside and ambushed her.

    Luna was repeatedly punched by the women and yanked by her hair as her colleagues attempted to intervene.

    Surveillance footage of the attack has been circulating on social media.

    The assault appears to have been preplanned, as additional footage obtained by the New York Post shows multiple women meet on the sidewalk moments before entering the shop.

    Luna believes she was targeted by a disgruntled customer who had cursed her out days before during a dispute involving payment for recycled bottles.

    “There were two other women on line and she came around and handed me the ticket and I asked her, ‘Miss, is it your turn? Did she give you her turn?’ I asked, pointing to the woman who was waiting in line,” Luna told The Post.

    “She said, ‘Bitch, that’s not your business. You better just give me my money,’” Luna recounted. “‘I’m going to kick your ass. I’m going to f***ing kill you. I’m going to bring my daughters and we’re all going to kick your ass!’”

    “I took her ticket and gave her her money, about $15. I was terrified.”

    Shop manager Jose Minaya says five women were involved in the attack, four of whom are family members.

    “You can see her here in the video waiting outside, calling her daughters and then her daughters came. It was three daughters and another older woman, so there were five of them all together,” Minaya said.

    No suspects have been arrested at the time of this writing, according to the latest available updates.

    Crime in NYC
    @CrimeInNYC
    ·
    From “frankbodega” on IG (@FrankBodega on Twitter).

    https://twitter.com/CrimeInNYC/status/1630265280747143169?s=20

    3. I wonder how many times that answer was batted around the Thunk Tank before they printed it out and said say this.

    2. Beetlejuice lost the Chicago mayoral election.
      Good news for Chicago.
      still, Lots of work to do to try and fix it. I suspect it might be too late.

      1. Lots of work to do to try and fix it. I suspect it might be too late.

        They elected another Democrat. There’s no “fixing” it, there’s only worsening it.

  46. The Financial Times
    28 minutes ago
    23:16
    UK house prices post largest decline in decade as higher rates bite
    Valentina Romei in London

    UK house prices dropped more than expected last month and posted the first annual contraction since the start of the pandemic as inflation and higher mortgage rates hit prospective buyers.

    Property prices fell 1.1 per cent in February, the largest decline in a decade, compared with the same month last year, down from a 1.1 per cent expansion in January, mortgage provider Nationwide said on Wednesday. Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast a 0.9 per cent contraction.

    It was the first annual contraction since June 2020 when the housing market was effectively shut during the Covid-19 lockdown.

    Excluding the early phase of the pandemic, the last time the UK house prices contracted on an annual basis was December 2012.

    Mortgage rates rose to a decade high in December following policy interest rate expectations set by the Bank of England as it tries to rein in inflation.

    The average house price fell to £257,406 in February, down from a peak of £273,751 in August.
    …

    1. August through February is 6 months, so the annualized rate of decline since last August is 1-(257406/273751)^(12/6) = 11.6%.

      Obviously that is much smaller than the rate of price decline in many parts of the US. For example, see my calculations above from early in the day for Jackson and Poplar Bluff, in the Missouri Bootheel. Those places have some serious CR8R!

      1. Further note: It isn’t really quite fair to compare rates of decline for a couple of small cities out in the Missori countryside to the stats for an entire country. Individual locales will naturally show greater variation in price than an average representative of millions of houses.

  47. The New York Post
    Billionaire investor Bill Gross rips ‘absurd’ CNBC over Cathie Wood
    By Thomas Barrabi
    February 28, 2023 | 3:26pm

    Billionaire “bond king” Bill Gross ripped CNBC and other business media outlets for their fawning coverage of tech investor Cathie Wood – despite her fund’s middling performance in the last few years.

    Gross, the outspoken co-founder of the PIMCO bond-trading empire who has an estimated fortune of $1.6 billion, questioned Wood’s rise to media prominence on Twitter.

    “CNBC/media idolatry of Cathie Wood is absurd,” Gross tweeted on Monday evening. “Over past 5 years QQQ has outperformed ARKK by nearly 100%.”

    Gross’ tweet referenced Invesco QQQ, a popular fund that tracks 100 of the largest and most-traded companies listed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. QQQ has jumped in value by 78% over the last five years.

    Meanwhile, Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF, the flagship fund offered by her firm ARK Investment Management, fell in value by more than 4% over the same period through Tuesday trading.
    …

    1. “…fawning coverage of tech investor Cathie Wood – despite her fund’s middling performance in the last few years.”

      Is it because she is a woman?

      I don’t claim to be an expert, but my meager HODLings did alot better than her whoopass risk asset gambles did last year.

    1. California approaching a record snow year as yet another storm hits
      A family gets a closer look at the Los Angeles River at Red Car River Park in Atwater Village on Saturday.
      (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)
      By Grace Toohey, Nathan Solis
      Feb. 27, 2023 Updated 7:07 PM PT

      California was hit Monday with yet another winter storm, adding to what has become an unusually cold and wet season that some experts say has the chance to become one of the snowiest on record if conditions continue.

      The new winter storm is forecast to bring more rain and snow across the state through Wednesday, though forecasters say it isn’t expected to be as exceptional as the previous system, which brought snowfall to unusually low elevations almost statewide. However, the latest system could be indicative of a pattern of moisture-heavy storms over the coming weeks expected to further build up the Sierra’s already-epic snowpack — particularly beneficial after California’s driest year on record.

      “Given the outlook of a continuation of very active and cold, snowy conditions for at least the next couple of weeks, it’s very possible we’ll end up vying for one of the top two snow years on record in parts of the state,” Daniel Swain, a UCLA climate scientist, said in a virtual discussion Monday. “Regardless, we’re going to end this year with a very large Sierra Nevada snowpack.”
      …
      https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-02-27/after-a-record-breaking-rains-southern-california-on-tap-for-even-more-downfall

    2. And the for sale sign on the house down the hill has blown off again! But still no price drops since its first listing on 10/27/2022.

      1. This one thought is was a good idea to increase the price after falling out of escrow: 14298 Ipava Dr, Poway, CA 92064. ‘Cuz low inventory, don’t cha know!

        2/23/2023 Price change $2,299,000 (+2.1%) $783/sqft
        2/23/2023 Listed for sale $2,250,888 $766/sqft
        1/28/2023 Pending sale $2,250,888 $766/sqft
        1/18/2023 Price change $2,250,888 (-1.1%) $766/sqft
        1/16/2023 Price change $2,274,988 (-1.1%) $775/sqft
        12/23/2022 Listed for sale $2,300,000 (+65.5%) $783/sqft
        9/3/2020 Sold $1,390,000 (-0.4%) $473/sqft

    1. You’ll launch your fortune too soon. Should just enjoy life until the screams are too much to ignore.

      1. enjoy life

        I’m spending a lot of time these days looking at plants, gardens and landscapes. And when our weather permits, I’m out playing in the dirt and my pop-up greenhouse.

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