There Is A Bubble To Burst
A report from Fox 13 in Utah. “Matthew Clewett bought his first home in Kaysville back in 2021. Since May, the board says those prices have dropped 22 percent. ‘It was an offer that I actually had to pay above asking price for. It was at pretty much at the top end of my budget,’ said Clewett. ‘I think I had to go $20,000 over asking.’ According to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, the median single-family home price in Salt Lake County for January 2023 was $533,5000 — 9 percent lower when compared to January 2022. ‘We’ve had more prices, been able to get, I’d say stabilizes a little better. I mean people hear the word fall, like their prices are crashing. [I] wouldn’t say prices have been crashing, but they’ve come down a lot,’ said Rob Ockey, president of the board.”
The Union Tribune in California. “January is typically a slow month for home sales in San Diego — but it’s never been this slow.Resale single-family: Median of $820,000, with 1,027 sales, and down from its peak of $950,000 in April. Resale condo: Median of $600,000, down from its peak of $663,000 in May. There were 517 sales. Newly built: Median of $849,500, with 101 sales. This figure combines single-family homes, townhouses and condos. Down from the peak of $890,500 in August. ‘It’s squeezing everybody,’ Raylene Brundage, an agent who sells in several North County communities, said of real estate agents, who are coming off several years of more work than they could handle.”
KTVU in California. “Small mom-and-pop rental owners say they’ve been victimized by Alameda County’s eviction moratorium with some owed more than $100,000 in back rent. ‘There is just no reason for them not to pay their rent and just take advantage of the moratorium, which was really meant to protect people with low income, not people with high income like them,’ Fremont landlord Dorothy Wang said. ‘I am angry about the situation. I’ve felt very hopeless for two years.’ She needed Sinha and his family to apply for government rental assistance but calls and requests went unanswered. The application was denied. But documents show that they purchased a new home in Union City, yet are still staying rent-free in Fremont.”
“Wang’s story is not unique. Ami Shah and her husband temporarily planned to rent-out their Fremont home. A couple signed a lease that said no subleasing was allowed. After several months, the payments stopped coming and they learned their property was posted on Airbnb. ‘They were making money off our property by putting our property up on Airbnb,’ she said. ‘Just thinking about the hundreds of strangers coming in and out of my property…that’s scary, frustrating, saddening – everything all at the same time.’ Even with the lease not allowing subtenants, the Shahs said it took months in an intense legal battle just to get their home back. Their place was trashed and condemned.”
KIRO in Washington. “Seattle’s once-sizzling housing market has cooled off a lot. Nelya Calev, a Bellevue-based realtor, remembers even a year ago when buying a house in King County quickly turned into a bidding war. But that was then. This is now. Calev says prices have dropped, too. ‘From the height of the market, which was in May, they came down 15%,’ she said.”
KING TV in Washington. “Three unusual deaths over the past eight days in Ballard have some people on alert, but a local leader says crime is actually down in the area. Five days ago, a young child was found dead under bushes in the 5300 block of Shilshole Ave NW. Last Monday, a business owner on 15th Avenue NW shot and killed a robbery suspect. He was also shot by the robber and is in serious condition. ‘Ballard has certainly changed,’ said Paige Wager, who’s owned Ballard CrossFit for 15 years. ‘We lock the doors when people aren’t around.'”
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The rate of year-over-year single-family home price growth in D-FW was at or below about 10% from the Great Recession to January 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. Local home prices peaked in June 2022 and have since declined about 7.6%, the index shows. National prices have dropped 4.4% from their June peak.”
WGN in Illinois. “Currently listed for a whopping $29,999,995 — a 40% reduction from its original ask of $50 million — a French-inspired mansion in Chicago easily claims the top spot for expensive real estate in Illinois (even out-doing Michael Jordan’s estate which is still for sale). According to a Chicago Tribune‘s Elite Street, the owners spent $65 million to build the mansion, with that including land costs.”
The Detroit Free Press. “For the first time since going public in 2020, Dan Gilbert’s mortgage business is seeing red. Rocket Companies, the publicly traded corporate parent of Rocket Mortgage, reported Tuesday a net loss of $493 million in the fourth quarter on $481 million in total revenue. It was the firm’s first quarterly loss since going public in August 2020, back during the thick of a mortgage refinancing boom that was highly profitable for Rocket. Rocket executives have been furiously cutting expenses as revenues have dropped, including several rounds of employee buyouts.”
Go Banking Rates. “While many buyers and sellers are anxiously waiting to see what happens next, Ruth Shin, CEO of PropertyNest, based in Brooklyn, New York, said a complete housing market crash this year is unlikely. ‘It is not currently a great market for sellers and is turning more and more into a buyers’ market, with the peak yet to come,’ she said. ‘Mortgage rates and interest rates are still high, as are the prices.’ More significant price drops might happen, but she said that probably won’t happen until mid-to-late summer. ‘The conditions, while at times extreme in the past few years, are nothing like they were leading up to the housing crash in 2008,’ she said. ‘There is a bubble to burst but not at the same dramatic level.'”
From The Hill. “When liabilities exceed assets, equity capital is negative and an entity is technically insolvent. From mid-March 2023, there will be a new addition to the list of institutions that, while losing billions of dollars a month and technically insolvent, with the benefit of taxpayer support will still be able to issue billions in new interest-bearing liabilities. That institution is the Federal Reserve. Since mid-September, the Federal Reserve has lost about $36 billion and will continue to post billions of dollars a month in losses for many months if not years to come. Fed losses have already consumed about 85 percent of its stated capital of $42 billion. It will take less than 3 weeks for the Fed to burn through the $6.6 billion of its remaining capital.”
“By any sensible accounting standard, losses reduce retained earnings and capital. Nothing is more basic. The Fed’s real capital is its stated capital of $42 billion minus its accumulated losses. The Fed magically suspends this law of accounting by booking its accumulated losses as an asset. If Fed losses accumulate to $100 billion, as they probably will in 2023, or to $200 billion or more by 2024, the Fed will report that it still has $42 billion in equity capital. Magic.”
“In reporting its recent losses, the European Central Bank canceled paying dividends and was careful to state that its losses were well covered by its reserves and so had no impact on its capital. The Swiss National Bank’s $143 billion loss in 2022 caused it to cancel its dividend payments and reduce its retained earnings.”
The New York Post. “A middle manager at Facebook parent company Meta who is making $550,000 a year took to social media to gripe about corporate belt-tightening — which could potentially sabotage their hopes to reach $1 million of total annual compensation by 2026. In a now-viral post titled ‘Angry/Worried that it’s all going to be taken away from me!,’ the anonymous middle manager wrote: ‘I’ve fought so hard to get where I am, and now it may be all taken away from me this month in the great flattening.'”
“‘Things have gone to s–t,’ the employee wrote. ‘Not just stock price but now with the great flattening my odds of survival are 50/50.’ Middle managers are fretting over CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s recent ‘flattening’ edict. The employee wrote that they were feeling buyer remorse. ‘Maybe should have went with one of my other offers,’ the employee wrote. ‘F–k this I’m so angry,’ the employee continued.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “7 Oliver Court., Lindsay, Ont. Asking price: $1,159,000 (October, 2022). Previous asking price: $1,299,000 (August, 2022). Selling price: $1,065,000 (December, 2022). After months on the market with no solid bites, the owners of this three-bedroom house about 130 kilometres northeast of Toronto cut their initial $1,299,000 asking price by $140,000.”
“‘With the overall slow down taking place as interest rates were increasing and stress test qualifications had increased, it was taxing on the market across the board,’ agent Kathryn Johnson said. ‘At the time we did the reduction, there were also four other properties in close proximity to this one that were on the market, also in the $1-million range.’ Inquiries picked up, with two potential buyers interested enough to start negotiations over price. In the end, one bowed out and the other shaved their bid to $1.065-million. ‘People didn’t want to compete,’ Ms. Johnson said.”
The Daily Telegraph. “Borrowers should be prepared for an average variable rate of close to 9 per cent – this is the logic behind keeping the current loan assessment buffer in place, according to the head of the Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA). FBAA managing director Peter White has slammed Monday’s move by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to maintain its current assessment buffer of 3 per cent despite recent hikes bringing the cash rate close to the long term average.”
“‘Many borrowers who can afford the interest rate of the day or even a little higher, are being unfairly prevented from refinancing,’ Mr White said. ‘More borrowers are becoming ‘mortgage prisoners’, locked into a situation where they can’t access a better deal because they don’t meet the inflated assessment rate. Others may be forced into selling their homes because the excessive buffer rate holds them prisoner to their current lender as rates rise. It’s time borrowers stopped paying the price for the rapid rise of rates.'”
Radio New Zealand. “Wellington, Dunedin, and Auckland were the softest of the main centres, with Hamilton and Tauranga seeing smaller falls. National home values were 8.9 percent down on last year to an average of $944,077, with a nearly 20 percent drop in Wellington and 11 percent drop in Auckland leading the market down. Corelogic NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the larger drop in home values was unsurprising and continued the weakening trend that had been in place for the past 12 to 15 months.”
“‘Despite mortgage rates being at or close to a peak, the RBNZ’s grim outlook for inflation and the economy more broadly was always going to weigh further on property values,’ Davidson said. ‘February’s 50 basis point hike in the official cash rate is also likely to restrain demand.'”
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‘Matthew Clewett bought his first home in Kaysville back in 2021. Since May, the board says those prices have dropped 22 percent. ‘It was an offer that I actually had to pay above asking price for. It was at pretty much at the top end of my budget,’ said Clewett. ‘I think I had to go $20,000 over asking’
A winnah!
‘They were making money off our property by putting our property up on Airbnb,’ she said. ‘Just thinking about the hundreds of strangers coming in and out of my property…that’s scary, frustrating, saddening – everything all at the same time’
It gets worser Ami. Hundreds of people were taking a crap in yer shack. Roll those sleeves up!
‘The rate of year-over-year single-family home price growth in D-FW was at or below about 10% from the Great Recession to January 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. Local home prices peaked in June 2022 and have since declined about 7.6%, the index shows’
I usually stay away from posting this index as it’s ancient history. Which means it’s worser by now.
You will own nothing
𝗟𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻, 𝗠𝗧 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟲% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗸𝘆𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗔𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗮
https://www.movoto.com/livingston-mt/market-trends/
𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “68% 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘰𝘸𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘩.”
What month is it? It’s March now?
Happy *THIRTY SIX MONTH* anniversary of “two weeks to flatten the curve”
Think about how much they have taken from you. Think about how much more they wanted to take from you (see also: Canada, Australia, etc).
An entire generation emotionally and psychologically scarred, for life:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/mar/01/young-adults-mental-health-pandemic
It’s not just young adults. In fact, I know a guy who offed himself recently. Left behind a wife and kid.
Here is a cheerful story: Other than miss fugly lost the mayor’s race in chicago.
Wilbur Eugene Jackson was sentenced after selling stolen cattle while on probation for theft of livestock.
https://www.kbtx.com/2023/02/28/lee-county-man-sentenced-50-years-cattle-theft-case
I’m working on a new song, Mississippi Queen….this one is gonna be crowd pleaser.🤣🤣🤣
Queen today doesn’t mean a real woman like 50 years ago.
I’m going 70’s easy listening and Afternoon Delight
Gonna find my baby, gonna hold her tight
Gonna grab some afternoon Default
My motto’s always been ‘when it’s right, it’s right’
Why wait until the middle of a cold dark night?
When everything’s a little clearer in the light of day
And we know there’s no more cash out refis and we just can’t pay
Sky rockets in flight
Afternoon Default
Afternoon Default
Afternoon Default
https://youtu.be/LplRrAmRzDA
I am anxiously awaiting Mississippi Queen.
Do you know what I mean?
How long have you had this infatuation with Queens? Not judging, just asking.
Re: Student Loan Forgiveness
While I don’t recommend defaulting on loans, I think some perspective is in order here. Let’s look at a scenario involving two groups of people, Group A and Group B.
Group A takes out $1.76 Trillion in loans, in the (perhaps misguided) hope of furthering their education. They agree to repay these loans, but later ask for 30% of the balance to be forgiven on the grounds of hardship.
Group B sets up $96 Trillion in “unfunded liabilities”, because they feel like it and they have the political power to do so. They have no intention of ever paying this amount, on the contrary they demand that Group A pay this amount to them, though Group A had virtually no say in creating this situation. Then they denounce Group A for being lazy and entitled.
Which is the bigger problem? Which group is more morally culpable for this state of affairs?
Hmmmm?
The olds that COVID didn’t kill can look forward to state sponsored euthanasia, it’s already happening in Canada.
Sabotage– is the act of destroying or obstruction of something, usually for political or military objectives.
Examples:
-Burning down oil and food production.
-Derailment of trains, releasing wide spread poison
– Blowing up Russian pipeline
-Obstruction of Jan 6 tapes
-Censorship of news to defraud
-Shut down of oil production and food production by farmers
-Looting of tax coffers to fund sabotage
-Proxy Wars and necular threat
-Destruction of small business by useless Covid lockdowns
– Destruction and genocide by poison fake vaccines
-Infiltration of Government , protection agencies, institutions , school brainwashing
-Perverted Transgender assault against
children, teaching racism and discrimination against white race
-Attack on Christians, and attack on over half the Country being enemy of State
–Rigged elections to place puppets and obstruct government by Citizens
-Invasion of US Borders for replacement and destruction of US and sovereign state
—Attack on words, books,science, biology,, history , , etc etc, to undermine , ,thinking ability 1984 style
–Biden transfer of power by Treaty to unelected World ,WHO that puppet of enemy, to supersede US Constitution
–Russian hoax, fake Impeachment , police
defunded, unequal justice ,criminals running a wild
F Fake narrative like Climate Change to e an freeze, starve and deprive humanity
–US funded bio-weapon created with enemy China, unleashed on Globe —-Are you depressed yet, did I miss something?
Bidens crimes covered up, vaccine death and injury covered up.
War has been launched by the New World Order to take over with China in collusion with this assault. Just saying
Hmmm. Perhaps the answer is that they are both the same. Stealing from others is wrong, regardless of the amount.
Student debt forgiveness is looking pretty doubtful. Seems like a debt jubilee for today’s borrowers would be extremely unfair to past generations of borrowers who struggled to repay their student loan debt, and present day college students who were priced out of the college of their choice by those who borrowed and spent more than they are willing to repay.
National
Supreme Court met with rally amid student loan forgiveness hearings
by: Alexandra Limon
Posted: Mar 1, 2023 / 10:43 AM EST
Updated: Mar 1, 2023 / 10:43 AM EST
WASHINGTON (Nexstar) – The Supreme Court heard two cases on Tuesday about whether the Biden administration can legally forgive student loans as crowds rallied for the high court to allow the program to move forward.
Channing Hill and Larry Smith Jr. were in the large crowd of young people outside the Supreme Court on Tuesday, urging the justices to uphold President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness program.
“It’s about making sure we have equitable access to education,” said Hill, a Howard University student.
“It’s very hard for out of state students… to afford tuition, room and board. I myself am a resident assistant. If I was not an RA, I would have nowhere to live,” said Smith Jr., of IAmQueens.
Biden’s plan would forgive up to $10,000 for many income-eligible people and up to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients.
According to the Biden administration, some 26 million people have applied for student loan forgiveness and 16 million have already been approved.
However, their loans haven’t been forgiven yet because the program is on hold due to lawsuits — including one brought by six Republican-led states to the Supreme Court on Tuesday.
“It’s Biden’s crooked bail-out. It’s illegal. It’s unconstitutional. It’s wrong for working families across the nation,” Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey said.
The states argue, among other things, that it’s unfair for taxpayers who didn’t attend college to foot the bill of those who did.
But Hill said the program will help improve the lives of those struggling with debt.
…
https://www.wavy.com/news/national/supreme-court-met-with-rally-amid-student-loan-forgiveness-hearings/
Biden’s plan would forgive up to $10,000 for many income-eligible people and up to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients.
Biden isn’t “forgiving” sh*t. He’s putting taxpayers on the hook for loans taken out by special snowflake deadbeats.
“Student debt forgiveness is looking pretty doubtful.”
They just received three years of interest payment forgiveness!
I hate Joe Biden, that I know.
Simple answer:
If you took the loan (for any reason), then pay it back. No one else should be responsible for your actions.
So those who created the $96 trillion liability should pay that back as well.
That ship has sailed.
It can easily sail back. Congress could end Social Security and Medicare tomorrow. And it must if we’re going by Hi-Z’s principle that no one else should be responsible for your actions.
It occurs to me that Group A elected Group B, and continues to vote for them every two years like clockwork.
Well, if voting makes it right, then certainly any student loan debtor who voted for Biden should have that $20K forgiven.
A reader sent these in:
JUST IN – Inflation “surprisingly” rebounds in France and Spain.
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1630512451119640576
Bank of America predicts the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates to almost 6%.
https://twitter.com/WhaleWire/status/1630554502628626432
Layoffs rising (increase in rate) faster than pre-Lehman
https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/1630376162030678020
CarDealershipGuy
Auto loan rates have just hit new records 📈
New cars: 8.67%
Used cars: 13.65%
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1630601033410813954
🏆 Congrats!! Housing Affordability LOWEST IN HISTORY! 🏡 😞
https://twitter.com/DisruptorStocks/status/1630647138605473811
Who is buying the stock market? According to Bank of America the main provider of liquidity has been buybacks.
https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1630505550889844737
U.S. financial conditions have not tightened.. as shown yesterday high yield spread is not widening. Goldman Sachs indicator is showing easier conditions than Bloomberg Terminal
https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1630567499950374914
Sea of green on the inflation front
https://twitter.com/TheMarketDog/status/1630505287198162951
Phoenix housing prices are absolutely collapsing during what should be the hottest selling months of the year. Latest data shows Phoenix falling at a -22.8% annual rate. That means Phoenix is losing $8,000/mo on a median home!
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1630688930466238464
The 6-month US Treasury yield has moved up to 5.18%, its highest level since February 2007. A year ago this yield was at 0.69% and two years ago it was at 0.05%.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1630686324746342406
It remains unclear to me why this housing situation is not the market’s primary focus. It strikes me as Issue Number One. Everyone’s biggest asset became unaffordable to the marginal buyer. This is what catalyzes labor market deterioration. This chart. Activity freeze.
https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1630753471401164802
John Wake
“The total $1.84B of debt was equal to ~81% of the buildings’ appraised value. The floating interest rate on the debt, which was ~3% at the time of the deal, has now risen to ~6%.”
https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1630728173980897280
Danielle DiMartino Booth
This @MorganStanley chart shows central business districts have seen greater price depreciation vs non-major markets. Urban centers, especially ones that have made doing business more difficult post-pandemic, are in for world of pain. Doubt politicians know harm they’re doing.
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1630710631514136576
“Congrats!! Housing Affordability LOWEST IN HISTORY!”
Yo Professor Bear, the chart begins at 1997.
Robert Shiller has produced US housing price charts that go back to the 1890s. I guess relitters don’t know about those…
with the size of this bubble, does one really need to look before 1997 to make that declaration?
Bank of America predicts the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates to almost 6%.
Wow, way to go out on a limb. NEWSFLASH: The FED announced this last year. 7% is probably baked in the cake at this point.
Russia Today — Pentagon well aware of Ukraine’s corruption problem (3/1/2023):
“I’ve worked the Ukraine issue now for about nine years, and in our engagement over that entire period corruption was the number one issue we’ve raised with Ukrainian officials,” Under Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl said during a hearing about Ukraine assistance held by the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.
“We don’t see any evidence of diversion [of weapons] in our reporting. We think the Ukrainians are using properly what they’ve been given,” he said. Kahl added that US officials would “continue to foot stomp the importance of accountability and transparency” in Kiev.
Related article:
“CBS News announced changes to its upcoming Ukrainian documentary after deleting a tweet suggesting that only 30% of U.S. aid has been reaching the front lines of the war against Russia.
On Friday, the news organization originally tweeted a promotion for its documentary, “Arming Ukraine,” which reportedly tracked the billions of dollars in U.S. aid and weaponry being sent to the country to fight Russia’s invasion. The tweet revealed a claim by a nonprofit founder who reported a majority of the funding does not reach Ukrainian front lines.
“The new CBS Reports documentary, ‘Arming Ukraine,’ explores why much of the billions of dollars of military aid that the U.S. is sending to Ukraine doesn’t make it to the front lines: ‘Like 30% of it reaches its final destination.’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-news-deletes-tweet-claiming-only-like-30-us-military-aid-ukraine-ever-reaches-front-lines
Foot stomping?
Jeff is taking us back to the ’70s this morning, so yes.
David Bowie – Footstompin’ (Live Dick Cavett Show 1974):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bZTwnR9nLvY&pp=ygUXZGF2aWQgYm93aWUgZm9vdHN0b21waW4%3D
How far gone is your country that the passage of these bills even became necessary?
“Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) signed a new law banning gender-affirming care for trans youth on Tuesday amid Republican attacks against LGBTQ+ communities across the country.
Reeves, who is up for reelection this year, said the law is meant to combat a “dangerous movement that’s spreading across America,” leaning into conservative dog whistles about trans people that doctors say are already harming vulnerable youth.
“This is truly scary stuff that’s being pushed upon our kids and, yes, their loving parents,” Reeves said. “They’re being taken advantage of, all so some can push their warped view on gender or appear to be ‘woke’ for their friends.”
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/new-mississippi-law-trans-youth-health-care_n_63fe9c17e4b08b1402e0c4dc
“the politically charged legislation is based on myths and misinformation about trans youth rather than medicine.”
It’s not “medicine” it’s Marxism.
Any law that keeps more Democrats from immigrating to that state is worth its weight in gold. So keep ’em coming red states!
In my part of Region IV shack inventory is stacking up and the prices are soon to be…
https://youtu.be/1lWJXDG2i0A
The inventory pileup is why the sellers eventually lose in a standoff between buyers and sellers. Eventually each buyer in the market has many homes to choose from, creating s kind of reverse bid war situation where he can drive a hard bargain against many sellers offering homes that would meet his requirements.
“If Fed losses accumulate to $100 billion, as they probably will in 2023, or to $200 billion or more by 2024, the Fed will report that it still has $42 billion in equity capital. Magic.”
Is there any scenario under which the Fed’s own accounting methodology would report a loss?
I guess private sector banking doesn’t work that way?
The Financial Times
Deutsche Bundesbank
Bundesbank warns losses from bond purchases will wipe out buffers
German central bank acknowledges provisions are unlikely to cover shortfall resulting from holdings of €1tn-worth of debt
Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel addresses the media in Frankfurt on Wednesday
Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said the damage to the bank’s earnings was ‘ultimately the result of the extraordinarily expansive monetary policy of the past few years’
Martin Arnold in Frankfurt and Guy Chazan in Berlin 3 hours ago
The Bundesbank has suffered a €1bn hit from its substantial bond holdings and warned future losses would wipe out its remaining financial buffers as the German central bank grapples with the impact of higher interest rates.
Joachim Nagel, Bundesbank president, told a press conference, held to present its annual report in Frankfurt on Wednesday, that the damage was “ultimately the result of the extraordinarily expansive monetary policy of the past few years”.
The Bundesbank has bought €1tn of mostly German government debt since 2015 as part of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying programmes, which Nagel’s predecessor Jens Weidmann repeatedly voted against.
…
Seems like central banks are now paying the piper for QE.
I was thinking the other day about how we hear ‘feds balance sheet’ a lot. I guess to sound more solid. But an inability to record liabilities higher than assets isn’t even accounting. QE isn’t economics. If you had said this is where we would end up 10 or 15 years ago, no one would have believed it. They’re just making this up as they go along. So they experimented with a no rules ‘central bank’ (they aren’t a bank either) system and these clowns ran it into the ground. Bonds, stocks, imaginary coins, even real estate (!) are all fooked. Heck of a job girls!
Woody Harrelson Doubles Down, Slams COVID Mandates: US Is “Not A Free Country”
by Steve Watson
March 1st 2023, 6:53 am
Following a 30 second bit on SNL where he branded big pharma as a ‘cartel’ forcing it’s drugs on people with government consent, actor Woody Harrelson has further spoken out against COVID mandates.
In an interview with the New York Times, Harrelson warned that America is no longer a free country, branding COVID protocols as “rather absurd.”
https://www.infowars.com/posts/woody-harrelson-doubles-down-slams-covid-mandates-us-is-not-a-free-country/
Could you imagine living under medical tyranny in New York or California? I never will.
“The Florida governor and likely presidential candidate has secured a place for the movement in the conservative mainstream. And as a sitting governor, he has the opportunity to distinguish himself from other declared and potential candidates by putting his vision into practice.
DeSantis, who this week begins a media tour to promote his new book “The Courage to Be Free,” launched a “Prescribe Freedom” campaign in January that proposes permanently limiting Covid-19 vaccination and mask requirements and giving cover to physicians whose medical views depart from scientific consensus. He also plans to set up a panel to review recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and called for a grand jury to “investigate crimes and wrongdoing committed against Floridians” related to the Covid vaccine.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/01/desantis-medical-freedom-gop-florida-00084842
Covid vaccines are poison ☠️
It is important to remember that Florida came very close to electing a fruity diversity governor instead of the current one. They also opted for freeway checkpoints at the beginning of the scamdemic. There will always be plenty of batsh!t crazy to be found in Florida.
“a fruity diversity governor”
Who was found intoxicated in a hotel room with male escorts and empty bags of meth, claimed he “drank too much” at a wedding, and subsequently checked into rehab.
Andrew Gillum can explain that to his wife, nobody’s judging him.
empty bags of meth,
I don’t recall them being empty (traces at a minimum). He could have been charged with a felony for that. Not sure it would have stuck but I know someone in FL who got a felony for a “crack straw.” (what ever that is.) Now it was dismissed later and all she got was a misdemeanor paraphernalia but still.
33,000 votes away from being California.
33,000
Curious number choice there.
Ian Miles Cheong
@stillgray
“The US will have to send their sons and daughters exactly the same way as we are sending our sons and daughters to war. And they will have to to fight, because it’s NATO that we’re talking about, and they will be dying.”
Zelensky says what expects the US to do if Ukraine loses.
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1630699698674872320?s=20
Send the sons and daughters of every member of Congress who voted to send our taxpayer money to war criminal Zelensky first, along with the sons and daughters of every member of the New York Times and Washington Post editorial boards.
Biden got 80 million votes (!). Surely those people and their kids can provide sufficient cannon fodder.
That was 2020, consider the 2022 midterms, just 7 months after the phony war started:
“The data is still coming in nationally, but from what we know, Gen Z-ers sustained their record-breaking 2018 turnout during the 2022 midterm elections, opting for Democratic House candidates by 25 points and limiting Republican gains.”
https://time.com/6232272/generation-z-voters-midterm-elections/
Every one of these voters should be in Ukraine NOW.
And if none of them ever come home alive, no real loss to the country, most of them will end up being a net economic drain anyway.
Sounds harsh, but I’ve been consistently anti-war my entire life, with no exceptions.
You voted for this, stupid kids, now go die for it ☠️
Young, idealistic voters are easily duped into voting Democrat. As they mature and wake up to the real world, they start voting Republican. The problem is that the Republican Party is now full RINO. We have an evil cabal of globalists controlling the US.
That’s no longer the case with millennials. You can probably blame social media for that.
RINOs are problem but they no longer control the GOP. Trump exposed RINOs which is why they are so hell bent on taking him down. Case in point the big Club for Growth ehem GOPe, shindig in Palm Beach for prospective Presidential candidates that did not invite Trump.
‘The conditions, while at times extreme in the past few years, are nothing like they were leading up to the housing crash in 2008,’
You see lots of experts offering vague statements like this in the MSM, with no supporting evidence. My reading of price decline data since last May is that US home prices in most places where they are bought and sold reached a more overvalued level and have fallen more rapidly since the peak last spring than they did at the end of Housing Bubble 1.0. And if mortgage rates doubled back then in less than a year after reaching historic lows, I certainly missed it.
Is crypto a safe bet again, now that the FTX fiasco is history?
The Financial Times
Stablecoins
Binance-branded crypto token hit by $6bn outflow after US crackdown
New York regulatory move accelerates withdrawal from BUSD stablecoin
Illustration showing crypto currency with the Binance logo
Analysts say the outflow could act as a drag on the financial performance of Binance
Scott Chipolina in London 4 hours ago
Investors have pulled more than $6bn out of a Binance-branded digital token in the past month, in a sign that a recent US regulatory crackdown on digital assets is putting pressure on the world’s largest crypto exchange.
New York’s financial regulator last month halted new issuance of the stablecoin, known as BUSD, citing “several unresolved issues” relating to Binance’s relationship with Paxos, the company responsible for minting the dollar-pegged token.
Since then holders have rushed to withdraw their cash, causing the BUSD in circulation to fall by more than a third, according to data from blockchain analytics platform Nansen.
…
Now that the February swoon is over, is this a good time to buy the dip?
Stocks drift as Wall Street braces for higher interest rates
Stan Choe
Associated Press
New York – Stocks are drifting Wednesday as Wall Street continues to brace for interest rates to stay higher for longer.
The S&P 500 was 0.2% lower in its first trading after coming off a frigid February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 17 points, or 0.1%, at 32,674, as of 9:40 a.m. Eastern time, while the Nasdaq composite was 0.2% lower.
…
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2023/03/01/stocks-drift-as-wall-street-braces-for-higher-interest-rates/69958032007/
Stocks fall to start a new month of trading as yields extend their climb: Live updates
Tanaya Macheel
Alex Harring
U.S. equities were lower on Wednesday, the first day of March, as traders tried to recover their footing following a losing month and bond yields continued their climb.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
slipped 67 points, or 0.2%. The broad market S&P 500 fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6%.
Stocks moved lower as bond yields extended their gains. The 1-year Treasury yield rose about 3 basis points to above 5%. On Tuesday the benchmark 10-year yield reached its highest level since November, just under 4%.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday that he’s “open to the possibility” of a larger interest rate increase at this month’s policy meeting, “whether it’s 25 or 50 basis points,” but hasn’t made up his mind yet.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/28/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Absolutely! I was listening some jack@ss saying with tax refunds coming, Stonks and Housing will go to the moon.
Chicago Mayor Beetlejuice Loses Re-Election, Comes In Third-Place
Did you notice the difference? They were able to count all the votes in few hours.
Things must be really bad if the Chicago Machine wont even fix her a close second.
I may be misreading the data, but it seems like the 10-year Treasury yield is bumping up against a 4% breakout threshold.
The Financial Times
Markets Briefing Equities
Ten-year US Treasury yield hits 4% on rate expectations
Stocks fall on concerns of persistent inflation
Stronger than expected inflation data from Germany heightened investor concerns that global central banks would be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer
Jaren Kerr and Kate Duguid in New York and Martha Muir in London 10 hours ago
The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes hit 4 per cent on Wednesday, as traders sold government debt in anticipation of a longer period of higher interest rates.
The rise took the yield to the highest point since November. Yields late last year were trading at levels previously reached more than a decade ago.
The yield on the 10-year note rose about 0.08 percentage points to 4 per cent, while the return on the two-year note rose 0.09 percentage points to 4.88 per cent, building on a 16-year high reached on Tuesday.
Moves in Treasury markets left the so-called yield curve in its steepest inversion in 42 years. An inverted yield curve, in which yields on short-dated bonds are more than those of longer-dated bonds, is often viewed as a harbinger of recession.
Markets have been driven by the interest rate outlook as the US Federal Reserve has raised borrowing costs to fight inflation. Futures markets on Wednesday indicated the Fed’s main policy rate will peak at about 5.5 per cent in September, up from the current range of 4.5-4.75 per cent.
Expectations have changed drastically over the past month after releases of hotter than expected US economic data. Investors at the start of February anticipated rates would peak at just under 5 per cent in the second quarter.
“Everyone is looking at the data and coming around to the view that inflation is expected to be ongoing and growth may be firm. There is uncertainty about where the Fed’s policy may end,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM.
“The view has been building in markets, with lots of movement over the past five days,” he said.
…
What a joke…the greater fool theory right near the house we’re renting for another couple of weeks, which just sold.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15-Pinon-Ct-Sedona-AZ-86336/7381453_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
Price history
Date Event Price
2/24/2023 Listed for sale $1,995,000 $783/sqft
Source: SVVAR #532390
11/21/2022 Listing removed $1,995,000 $783/sqft
Source: SVVAR #531525
10/14/2022 Listed for sale $1,995,000 (+227%) $783/sqft
Source: SVVAR #531525
11/22/2016 Sold $610,000 (+1.8%) $239/sqft
Source: SVVAR #511257
10/3/2016 Listed for sale $599,000 $235/sqft
Source: Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty
right near the house we’re renting for another couple of weeks, which just sold
The house you’re currently renting just sold?
Redhead,
Yes, it just sold. For substantially less than list price. We’re moving to another rental in town.
Let the GD Schools pay off the student loans.
22 Richest Schools In America
Jul 30, 2014
Top 22 Richest Schools in America:
Harvard University, $32,334,293,000
Yale University, $20,780,000,000
University of Texas System, $20,448,313,000
Stanford University, $18,688,868,000
Princeton University, $18,200,433,000
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, $11,005,932,000
Texas A&M University System and Foundations, $8,732,010,000
University of Michigan, $8,382,311,000
Columbia University, $8,197,880,000
Northwestern University, $7,883,323,000
University of Pennsylvania, $7,741,396,000
University of Notre Dame, $6,856,301,000
University of Chicago, $6,668,974,000
University of California, $6,377,379,000
Duke University, $6,040,973,000
Emory University, $5,816,046,000
Washington University in St. Louis, $5,651,860,000
Cornell University, $5,272,228,000
University of Virginia, $5,166,660,000
Rice University, $4,836,728,000
University of Southern California, $3,868,355,000
Dartmouth College, $3,733,596,000
For list of endowment data on 800+ Schools visit the NACUBO report. This list of 22 schools account for 50% of the total endowment funds of American Colleges and Universities in this report.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ccap/2014/07/30/22-richest-schools-in-america/
Just showing the increase of the top two in the last 7 years.
Let them pay it.
The 30 Universities With the Largest Endowments
BY TOM FISH ON 8/27/21 AT 7:00 PM EDT
1. Harvard University ($40,929,700,000)
Established in 1636 and named for its first benefactor, the Puritan clergyman John Harvard, the private Ivy League research college based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
With an acceptance rate of just 5 percent, admissions are extremely competitive at Harvard, where popular majors include Economics, Computer Science, and Political Science and Government.
2. Yale University ($30,295,003,000)
Yale University is an elite private Ivy League research university in New Haven, Connecticut and the third-oldest institution of higher education in the U.S.
Popular majors at this liberal arts college include Economics, Political Science and Government and History.
https://www.newsweek.com/universities-largest-endowments-america-harvard-yale-stanford-1620979
Russia is winning.
They would have preferred things didn’t go the bloody way they did, I believe.
The world has not seen “bloody” yet. China has an estimated excess of 35 million men who have no hope of a female partner simply because there are that many fewer women available. Let’s call them by their real name – INCELS. 35 million incels with no hope of ever getting laid.
China’s got a real problem, and they know it. They’ll gin up a war to get these men slaughtered. They’ve got to get rid of them somehow. Or import women. Something’s got to give.
It’s a new month, time to think about and share some new ideas.
If any state, or the federal government ever tries to implement another “lockdown” policy for whatever reason, every plumber, HVAC technician, and electrician go on strike, immediately, and indefinitely.
Try living without water, heat, cooling, or electricity for more than a few days.
The average age in the skilled trades is mid late 40s, and there’s nobody qualified coming up to replace them.
Pull that COVID bullsh*t again, and we can shut the country down.
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
Try living without water, heat, cooling, or electricity for more than a few days
I’m pretty sure I could treat this as a minor inconvenience, but I’m not your target either.
Mid-week long read, for your meth and fentanyl enjoyment.
Denverite linked from Colorado Public Radio — RTD wants to ban riding trains and buses all day. So we rode for 20 hours and talked to people who do that (3/1/2023):
“we rode RTD’s system for about 20 hours on a cold, snowy day last week to meet people who’d be directly impacted. To keep things simple, we asked people only about the proposed ban that “particularly troubled” the coalition: riding indefinitely. Here’s what we saw and heard.
Ricci Autry didn’t get any sleep the night before, either. He’d walked downtown for hours waiting for the first W-Line train of the day to leave Union Station.
“The shelters out here are overcrowded and full of people with scabies and other nastiness,” he said. “I’d rather be out here on the street and know that what little stuff I do have is not getting stolen.”
So Autry, 39, has been hopping trains for about six months. He said he was a successful small business owner before his life started going haywire in early 2020. He said he was shot in the chest by his former roommate and then caught COVID early in the pandemic. By last September, he was evicted from the apartment he’d shared with a friend.
“This kind of stuff can happen to anybody,” he said. “People act like they don’t care because it’s not happening to them, but it could happen to them at any time.”
A man with a walker yelled obscenities at everyone and no one. He reached a crescendo, shouting, “Your Colorado laws are f-d, f-d, f-d.” Other passengers ignored him.
Then, as the train approached the Oak Station in Lakewood, the man stood and walked toward three passengers brandishing a Leatherman-style multitool. He stopped about 10 feet away, then walked back to his seat.
Later, the train was silent as the man slept on the floor.
People sleep on an RTD W Line train as it heads into Denver before dawn on Feb. 22, 2023.
The W-Line train started to fill up with downtown-bound commuters. Jonathan Bisset of Lakewood held his scooter tight as he sat toward the front of the first train car.
“I got tired of smelling drugs in the morning, so I came over to the first train,” he said. “The homeless population will normally be in the second and third train.”
Bisset, 26, said he’s been riding RTD ever since he moved to Colorado from Florida five years ago. But recent attacks on the W-Line have him thinking seriously about buying a car. He’s also been carrying pepper spray, a taser, and a baton.
“I have no trust. [I’m] constantly on edge in the morning,” he said.
A few months ago, he said, two men cornered him and grabbed at his scooter. So he pulled out his weapons and held them ready. The moment the doors opened at Union Station, he said, he ran.
He’s reported incidents via RTD’s “Transit Watch” app multiple times, he said, but nothing happened. “The driver doesn’t stop. Police don’t show up,” he said.
A W-Line train pulled into its last stop at the Jefferson County Government Center. Snow was swirling outside. Typically, operators walk through the train cars at this point and tell people to leave. But this time that didn’t happen.
“As long as they aren’t smoking, I let them sleep,” an operator told a fellow employee as they walked through the snow.
The stalls were full in the men’s room in Union Station’s Great Hall. A security officer walked in and declared, “Sorry to cut you all short, but I have to ask you all to leave.”
“I’m still taking a s-,” someone said from a stall.
“There’s a hint of fentanyl, and I’m trying to figure out which stall it’s in,” the guard says.
Amy Haefner was returning home to Parker from downtown Denver on the E-Line. The commuter makes the trip twice a week and said she feels safe most of the time. Still, she said, she’s happy to hear that RTD is considering an explicit ban on all-day riding.
“If you buy a ticket, you’re more than welcome to ride,” Haefner said. “But it should be for a purpose other than shelter. We’re failing the system if our public shelters are a train.”
A few minutes later, a woman behind us began to smoke something. A chemical smell filled the air, and Haefner’s tone changed significantly.
“I’d be reluctant to have my 18-year-old or 19-year-old daughter taking this train downtown,” she said.
https://denverite.com/2023/03/01/rtd-rider-rules-we-rode-all-day/
“Then, as the train approached the Oak Station in Lakewood, the man stood and walked toward three passengers brandishing a Leatherman-style multitool.”
A fine multitool for a midnight rider.
WTF….
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/01/china-banks-relay-loans-housing-market-flexible-borrowing
THROWBACK To When Lightfoot Blamed All Her Failings On Racism
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Fne2Al1EAEqg/
1 minute.
‘‘We’ve had more prices, been able to get, I’d say stabilizes a little better. I mean people hear the word fall, like their prices are crashing. [I] wouldn’t say prices have been crashing, but they’ve come down a lot’
Rob I’ve mentioned this before. Mimosa’s at lunch no bueno.
Just watched the launch from the Cape. Even from Palm Beach pretty impressive at night.
CR8R grow big
‘Go big or go home’: Opendoor’s high-stakes bid to disrupt real estate
MIKE DELPRETE
4 mins ago
Amanda Northrop | Inman
This report is available exclusively to subscribers of Inman Intel, a data and research arm of Inman offering deep insights and market intelligence on the business of residential real estate and proptech. Subscribe today.
Last week Opendoor posted its Q4 financial results, revealing mega losses alongside early signs of a possible turnaround.
Why it matters: In 2022, Opendoor experienced an absolutely devastating test of its business model – a worst case scenario event – and survived.
The damage was brutal in terms of financial losses, but the company is still around and operating, whereas most companies would have succumbed to this type of existential event.
Behind the numbers: Opendoor posted a net loss of $1.4 billion in 2022, on top of already sizable historical losses.
Opendoor, and many other venture-funded disruptors, are burning billions of dollars to grow new business models – and the lack of profitability just doesn’t matter.
The most noteworthy fact is that Opendoor lost $1.4 billion in 2022 and is still operating (albeit with a new CEO).
Cash is king: Manufactured financial metrics aside, Opendoor has plenty of (but not unlimited) cash reserves.
Opendoor ended 2022 with $1.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities – down from $2.2 billion at the beginning of the year.
That’s a cash burn of $934 million – massive losses, but a scenario that Opendoor was able to weather without raising additional capital (or going bankrupt).
Like many companies, Opendoor is racing to cut its operating expenses as quickly as possible.
In November, it laid off about 18 percent of staff, and just recently announced it had reduced its run-rate expenses by approximately $110 million.
Operating expenses are trending significantly lower – a positive sign for a company looking to conserve cash (note: sales, marketing and operations flex up and down based on the number of home sales).
…
“…the company is still around and operating, whereas most companies would have succumbed to this type of existential event.”
It’s early.
the lack of profitability just doesn’t matter.
Until…
It’s just dumb, borrowed money some venture capitalist helped them raise which they are burning through.
Imagine if all of this money was put to good use to create something of value, rather than driving the cost of shelter out of reach of families.
good use
Ironically, cheap money rarely goes to good use.
Are signs of cooling inflation finally coming into light?
The Financial Times
Eurozone inflation
Eurozone inflation comes in higher than forecasts
Slight easing in inflation rate to 8.5% fuels expectations over further ECB interest rate rises this year
A shopper carries a bag past a sign advertising an ‘Extra 50 percent discount on already discounted items’ outside a clothing retail store in Berlin
Shoppers in the German capital Berlin. ECB president Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that while inflation was likely to have risen ‘a little bit’ in February, it was on track to fall ‘much more’ in March
Martin Arnold in Frankfurt 18 minutes ago
Eurozone inflation fell less than many economists forecast in February, fuelling expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates several more times this year.
Consumer price growth eased slightly to 8.5 per cent in the year to February, from 8.6 per cent in January, as prices for services, goods and food rose faster even though energy price growth slowed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the figure to fall to 8.2 per cent.
Core inflation, which central bankers watch closely as it excludes energy and food prices to give a clearer picture of underlying pressures, rose to a new eurozone record of 5.6 per cent — up from 5.3 per cent in the previous month.
…
The Financial Times
Markets Briefing Equities
Stocks fall and government bonds sell off over eurozone inflation
Smaller decline than expected adds to market concerns that ECB will keep interest rates higher for longer
A montage of a globe and a chart
Prices across the eurozone rose 8.5% in February, down from 8.6% in January, but economists had forecast a smaller rise of 8.2%
George Steer in London 2 minutes ago
Global stocks declined and government bonds sold off on Thursday after a smaller than expected decline in eurozone inflation added to investor concerns that interest rates are set to stay higher for longer than previously forecast.
Prices across the eurozone rose 8.5 per cent in February, down from 8.6 per cent in January but more than the 8.2 per cent forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy to give a clearer picture of underlying price pressures, rose to a new eurozone record of 5.6 per cent, up from 5.3 per cent the previous month. Economists had expected the figure to rise to 5.5 per cent.
…
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy
For most people, food and energy are the Core living expenses.
I’ve heard tomatoeflation is a big deal in the UK. Something about energy for Spanish hothouses.
Food and energy tend to trend up more rapidly when inflation takes off. So stripping them out provides a way to produce a less alarming “core inflation” measure…unless that also is persistently high.
It at least adds a time lag.