Almost Always The Root Cause Of Systemic Risks Is Monetary Policy
A report from Go Banking Rates. “What goes up must come down. The market’s downward shift is most apparent in the properties on the high side of the median. According to Redfin, luxury home sales fell by a record 45% year over year, to the second-lowest level ever. That outpaces even the steep 37% decline in sales of non-luxury homes. Naturally, prices are falling along with demand. For example, the median home value in San Francisco fell from $1.41 million to $1.28 million during the luxury crash. But the median buyer would pay $8,372 per month at today’s rates compared to $7,100 one year ago despite a nearly 10% drop in price. Overall, the pandemic housing boom was historic, but for the million-dollar market, it was unsustainable.”
The Marina Times in California. “Sales are down, and prices are down. And it’s not just San Francisco. Compared to the first quarter of 2022 when prices and buyer demand were at their peak, median home sales prices in the city were down 18 percent year-over-year — the second most of any Bay Area county in that time period, and just behind Alameda County’s 18.5 percent decline.”
Danville San Ramon in California. “For people in the Bay Area tech sector, there’s almost daily news of big employers shedding lots of workers to prepare for more challenging economic times. And housing prices have stabilized and dropped—driven largely by the hike in interest rates that changed the affordability picture significantly. For instance, we’re now paying nearly as much monthly on our home equity line of credit that floats with the fed rate as we are on our fixed rate mortgage that borrowed twice as much money.”
The New York Post on California. “Tommy Lee’s ‘spectacular hillside’ Calabasas home finally sold for $3.6 million on Friday after the Motley Crue drummer’s best efforts at offloading the property for years. But the closing price didn’t even turn a profit for Lee, who purchased the home in 2007 for $5.85 million.”
From Reuters. “Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, warned in an April 17 memo of a slew of mortgage defaults that could increase stress on the US banking sector. The US’ largest city, New York, faces the most trouble over CRE, according to an analysis by a website that covers the CRE industry. ‘Due to its enviable location and substantial demand for office space, the Big Apple has long been a commercial real estate powerhouse. The pandemic, however, has left the city’s office market in shambles.'”
“In San Francisco, the office vacancy rate ‘is about 30 percent, or about 35 million square feet that is not currently being used,’ Colin Yasukochi with commercial real estate firm CBRE told NBC News Bay Area. ‘And that’s the highest that we’ve ever seen in San Francisco.’ A former San Francisco WeWork building has seen its property value slashed by about 66 percent, according to Trepp, which tracks CRE data. The building at 25 Taylor Street was once almost entirely leased to WeWork, the formerly highflying co-work startup. The building was valued at $28.1 million in 2014, but was recently appraised at $9.5 million, according to Trepp.”
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “A steep decline in commercial property sales contributed to a drop in Dallas-based CBRE Group’s quarterly profits. The commercial real estate services firm saw a 70% decline in net income during the first three months of the year. ‘Looking at the office market, we estimate it will take this asset class twice as long to recover the lost value as it did in the aftermath of the global financial crisis’ in 2008 and 2009, CBRE CEO Bob Sulentic said. ‘This reflects the formidable challenges facing office assets, driven by both the slow progress employees return to office and the shedding of jobs in tech and other sectors.'”
From Market Watch. “Toby Cobb has been in the catbird seat of the commercial real-estate market for decades. Cobb was Deutsche Bank’s co-head of U.S. commercial real estate in the run up to the global financial crisis of 2008. He now thinks office woes could put other areas of commercial-real estate at risk of contagion, and that the U.S. could be headed for a meaningful economic downturn, as banks pull back from lending because they end up reeling from their office exposure. ‘Every single crisis in my lifetime has been headlined by real estate,’ said Cobb. ‘In each case, it has been about a fundamental mismatch in supply and demand. We had way too much square feet and not enough people to put in it. Overbuilding has historically been the culprit.'”
“The bulk of the U.S. office inventory also skews heavily toward older buildings constructed in the 1980s and before, which are ‘at the end of their useful life and very expensive to tenant,’ Cobb said. ‘There are just a bunch of buildings now that nobody is going to want.'”
Business Insider. “While banks hold about half of all US commercial-real-estate debt, there are other big holders that are starting to feel the pain, especially over holdings of office properties suffering from the rise of remote or hybrid work schedules. Among them are the large pension funds, REITs, and insurance companies, together accounting for more than $1.2 trillion — or 22% — of the $5.62 trillion in total commercial-real-estate debt outstanding, according to BofA Global Research. ‘This is just an indication of what’s to come,’ said Manus Clancy, a senior managing director at Trepp, about the pension woes. ‘This is the beginning of what will be a lot of this from the funds, from the private equity guys, from the insurance companies. There will be a lot of reductions in equity values over the next couple of years, or sooner. It will be heavily tilted toward office.'”
“Already, some big landlords have chosen to default, including Brookfield on $161 million in debt tied to office properties around Washington, DC. ‘I don’t know if you’ve been in Washington, DC, anytime since COVID, but nobody goes to the office down there,’ said Orest Mandzy, managing editor of Trepp’s news outlet.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “More lenders of Ontario builder StateView Homes are demanding it repay close to $200-million in loans, casting doubt on its ability to cover its debts, according to new court documents. Filings from KingSett Mortgage Corp. – part of KingSett Capital’s $17-billion portfolio – challenge StateViews’s recent claims that it will finish a half-dozen townhouse projects that include hundreds of future homes, making insolvency and liquidation more likely.”
“‘The debtors have effectively no liquidity … the state of the debtor’s books and records is poor and, and in certain circumstances, non-existent,’ says a statement of claim filed April 27 on behalf of KingSett and lender Dorr Capital Corporation. The lenders are demanding repayment of $167.8-million and $4-million that was advanced to StateView for a variety of residential and commercial properties. They are also asking the court to appoint a third-party receiver to manage a sales process on StateView’s remaining assets.”
The Irish Mirror. “House prices may have peaked but are still at ‘unaffordable prices’ that prospective buyers could struggle to meet, a housing expert has said. At the weekly Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting on Wednesday night, TDs and Senators were briefed by party leader and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar on measures announced by the Government. He claimed that the country ‘is now experiencing the highest draw down on first time mortgages since 2005.’ He suggested that was due to increased supply, the Help to Buy scheme and the First Home Scheme. The meeting heard that house prices in Ireland have ‘almost certainly peaked and the average house price is expected to fall this year.'”
“Dr Rory Hearne, an Assistant Professor at Maynooth University, pointed out that they are still at very high levels. He said: ‘Very clearly, we’re seeing prices reduce in the rate of increase. In Dublin, there has been a fall in house prices over the last two or three months. We’re seeing a more significant fall in house prices in second-hand or existing dwellings. There definitely is a fall in [these] house prices.'”
Domain News in Australia. “Six-figure sums have been slashed from house prices in popular sea-change destinations as the property market downturn ripples across regional NSW. House prices in the previously booming Byron Shire Council area fell 17.8 per cent, or $321,000, to a median of about $1.48 million over the year to March, Domain’s latest House Price Report shows. Prices in the Kiama council area took a $240,000 hit, dropping 15 per cent to a $1.36 million median, while flood-affected Lismore recorded a drop of 12.2 per cent and values fell more than 9 per cent in the Wollongong, Shoalhaven and Bellingen areas.”
“McGrath Byron Bay principal Will Phillips said rapidly rising interest rates had affected the region more than others. ‘When we see a tightening of monetary policy, the first thing people either sell or don’t buy is the boat, the holiday home or the caravan,’ he said. ‘We’ve seen an oversupply of properties and an undersupply of buyers … which meant those needing to sell had to drop their prices further, whereas in Sydney it’s the reverse [with too little supply] so the market has levelled out.'”
“KPMG demographics expert Terry Rawnsley said demand for sea and tree change had slowed from the heights reached earlier in the pandemic. ‘[Prices] come back to the local market fundamentals … the days of cashed up big-city buyers coming in and pushing up prices is over … it’s coming back to the average [local] wage and borrowing capacity,’ he said.”
The Telegraph. “Waves of money printing have turned banks into ‘drug addicts’ reliant on cheap cash to stay afloat, one of the world’s top central bankers has warned. Raghuram Rajan, who was once a contender to lead the Bank of England, said repeated rounds of quantitative easing (QE) had encouraged lenders to take bigger risks in search of returns that are disappearing in the world of higher interest rates. The former head of India’s central bank said ‘excessively aggressive monetary policy’ was ultimately to blame for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US, which had billions of dollars tied up in long-term bonds.”
“More than a decade of low rates and money printing have made commercial banks reliant on the ‘drug of stimulus’ that will lead to more failures as central banks continue to tighten policy, Mr Rajan warned. ‘High QE has made the banking system more dependent on central bank liquidity,’ he told the Telegraph in an interview. ‘And when you try to withdraw it very quickly, you find it’s like a drug addict. It’s gotten used to the drug. And you can’t provide the old levels of the drug because they’ve gotten used to new high levels. And so it seizes up when you do that. I think we have to go back to asking, ‘why did these systemic risks emerge?’ And almost always the root cause of these systemic risks is monetary policy.'”
“The former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned the banking crisis was far from over, predicting that lenders holding long-term debt and those who before the pandemic invested in commercial property and office buildings will suffer the most. ‘We will see more bankruptcies,’ he said. Mr Rajan blamed the current turmoil facing the First Republic, which is fighting for survival, on its holdings of ‘jumbo mortgages’ issued when interest rates were at rock bottom.”
“Worried customers pulled $100bn (£80bn) in deposits from the bank in March amid fears that the bank was sitting on big losses. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which is responsible for overseeing depositor protection in the US of up to $250,000 for savers, has warned that US banks are sitting on more than $620bn of paper losses due to the rise in interest rates. Academics at NYU Stern School of Business believe the figure could be as high as $1.7 trillion, which is ‘comparable to the total equity in the entire banking system.'”
“Mr Rajan said the FDIC’s estimate did not take into account losses from all long-term debt, as he warned of a potential reckoning. ‘So there are losses from long term loans, but there’s also the commercial real estate losses to buildings to office buildings, which nobody wants to come into nowadays,’ he added. ‘So rents are going to fall. Valuations are gonna fall for those buildings. So I’m not saying there’s a huge crisis on the way, but I’m saying there’s enough to be concerned about.'”
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‘And when you try to withdraw it very quickly, you find it’s like a drug addict. It’s gotten used to the drug. And you can’t provide the old levels of the drug because they’ve gotten used to new high levels. And so it seizes up when you do that. I think we have to go back to asking, ‘why did these systemic risks emerge?’ And almost always the root cause of these systemic risks is monetary policy’
I seem to recall that the reason central banks exist is to prevent bank runs. So what do we need them for? Oh, right, they are supposed to prevent inflation.
DONG!
they are supposed to prevent inflation.
What an odd thing to say.
I’ve been watching them for over half a century, and this little thing never occurred to me.
Well, it sort of the bizarro world thing. The GSE’s are supposed to support affordable housing but do the exact opposite. The FBI is supposed to prevent crime but actually commit crimes. The CIA is supposed to protect USA’ns from ferners, but assassinate our politicians (all kinds of nasty stuff actually). The FDA is supposed to make sure drugs are safe – opps! The virus guys are supposed to stop deadly outbreaks but actually set up labs and create more deadly bugs. The military is supposed to protect the country, but spend all their sizable budget going around the world stirring up one hornets nest after another.
So why do we ‘need’ them?
‘I don’t know if you’ve been in Washington, DC, anytime since COVID, but nobody goes to the office down there’
I enjoy this analogy, dependence on debt compared to the symptoms of a terminal stage meth or fentanyl addiction.
30 year mortgages, cash out refinances, HELOC’s, all of these are the refuge of degenerate gamblers.
“30 year mortgages, cash out refinances, HELOC’s…”
You just described California’s economy.
‘housing prices have stabilized and dropped—driven largely by the hike in interest rates that changed the affordability picture significantly. For instance, we’re now paying nearly as much monthly on our home equity line of credit that floats with the fed rate as we are on our fixed rate mortgage that borrowed twice as much money’
If you think about this, every guberment backed shack loan made in the last 15 or so years is losing money, every day, with inflation where it is. So fannie and freddie paper is junk compared to HELOCs. Isn’t that just fine and dandy!
‘The debtors have effectively no liquidity … the state of the debtor’s books and records is poor and, and in certain circumstances, non-existent’
That’s some sound lending right there!
“a high-level hoax perpetrated against the American people” by elitists “who believe themselves to be infallible.”
Pinkerton: Bringing the War on Terror Home to Target Americans for ‘Disinformation’
JAMES P. PINKERTON
29 Apr 2023
Specifically, Siegel writes, these “infallible” elitists believe they are saving the world from “disinformation,” which is whatever they view as untruths about Russia, Ukraine, Donald Trump, Covid, climate change, election fraud, Brexit, etc. You name a flavor of disinfo, and they want to save us from it. And they’re operating in the State Department and other federal agencies, in numerous foundations and NGOs, and at a hundred academic “centers” that have sprung up like ‘shrooms since 2016.
These people and orgs were originally schooled in the infowar techniques associated with 9/11 and the Great War on Terror, but they don’t seem to be worry about jihadis these days. You see, these experts on infowar have morphed themselves into experts on disinfowar. Bolstered by Pentagon-sized budgets, their new target is the American people, viewed as disinformed dunderheads or worse. “What started out as a way to fight a far-away foe,” Siegel argues, “has quietly metastasized into a totalitarian fantasy of endless warfare against the erroneous thoughts and feelings of ordinary citizens closer to home.” Totalitarian fantasy—very 1984.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/04/29/pinkerton-bringing-the-war-on-terror-home-to-target-americans-for-disinformation/
The pandemic, however, has left the city’s office market in shambles.’”
Still lying. It wasn’t the pandemic; it was the totalitarian response to the pandemic.
A former San Francisco WeWork building has seen its property value slashed by about 66 percent, according to Trepp, which tracks CRE data.
Inconceivable! A former HBB poster assured us that 50% drops would never happen, before self-exiling to Butthurt Island.
A former San Francisco WeWork building has seen its property value slashed by about 66 percent, according to Trepp, which tracks CRE data.
A 66% haircut on prime real estate, but people believe their 3/2 1,600 square foot stucco sh!tbox in a desert sh!thole could never fall in value. I’d argue that there are many houses in this country that aren’t worth owning at $0 given local taxes.
“…their 3/2 1,600 square foot stucco sh!tbox in a desert sh!thole…”
You just described my shack and nabe! LOL
Hiding in plain sight.
The former head of India’s central bank said ‘excessively aggressive monetary policy’ was ultimately to blame for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US, which had billions of dollars tied up in long-term bonds.”
Heckova job, “Zimbabwe Ben” Bernanke, Yellen the Felon, & BlackRock Jay.
This is the classic “Riding The Tiger” problem…you can’t get off without being eaten.” —Indian economist?
Academics at NYU Stern School of Business believe the figure could be as high as $1.7 trillion, which is ‘comparable to the total equity in the entire banking system.’”
Inflation is still rising, even per our fake, Soviet-style CPI data, so how can the Fed justify pausing rate hikes?
Inflation is still rising, even per our fake, Soviet-style CPI data, so how can the Fed justify pausing rate hikes?
They don’t need to justify anything. They just do it and claim that nobody could have seen it coming.
Another one bites the dust.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/major-wa-brick-company-to-shut-last-manufacturing-site-amid-construction-industry-fallout/news-story/418c55200259f7dffda243df7a69d0c9
Good thing they have those extra large cans of beer!
Brick manufacturer goes bust with the collapse of the housing industry. Mortgage rates have doubled. Good news is, house prices will only go up!
Yet retail construction materials are still near all-time highs despite wholesale prices dropping more than 50%
Image files for Jeff. Have you ever seen a baby reindeer calf? I never had before yesterday. This one is less than a month old:
https://ibb.co/t4p8rsH
The owner (actual owner, not some debt junkie) also has horses, llamas, burros, sheep, goats, chickens, and a cow on his spread. We’re doing some work on his barn.
https://ibb.co/j6x7kPT
That guy has a farm that Beau would approve of.
Front Range foothills, don’t need to describe much more than that. The owner told us that while he was living in an RV before the main house was built, he woke up in the blizzard of 2003 to SEVEN FEET of new snow around his RV.
Car getting flipped right down the road from the Brass Ring yesterday. Scroll down for other cars stacked in a parking lot in Palm Beach Gardens.
Video captures tornado flipping cars as it touches down in South Florida
By Katherine Donlevy
April 29, 2023
https://nypost.com/2023/04/29/vicious-tornado-flips-cars-as-it-touches-down-in-south-florida/
In 1985 one of those beasts came through where I was working. A pickup ended up in the top of an old maple tree (it was only a Ford).
My 1970 Firebird was demolished. May 30th @ 9:15 PM.
“My 1970 Firebird was demolished. May 30th @ 9:15 PM”
Put that on the list of things that suck. 🙁
“…a baby reindeer calf?”
Legs like a colt.
Does it seem pretty early to say “not as bad as 2008” at this point?
I don’t recall the Fed and federal government playing the “go big” card and flooding financial markets with liquidity back then as they did during the pandemic, with inflation surging in response, including asset price inflation.
The Financial Times
Banks
Charlie Munger: US banks are ‘full of’ bad commercial property loans
Berkshire Hathaway vice-chair foresees pain in FT interview — but it will not be as severe as 2008
Charlie Munger, vice-chair of Berkshire Hathaway
Charlie Munger, vice chair of Berkshire Hathaway, warned that the golden age for investing was over and investors would need to contend with a period of lower returns
Eric Platt and Harriet Agnew in Los Angeles 5 hours ago
Charlie Munger has warned of a brewing storm in the US commercial property market, with American banks “full of” what he said were “bad loans” as property prices fall.
The comments from the 99-year-old investor and sidekick to billionaire Warren Buffett come as turmoil ripples through the country’s financial system, which is reckoning with a potential commercial property crash following a handful of bank failures.
“It’s not nearly as bad as it was in 2008,” the Berkshire Hathaway vice-chair told the Financial Times in an interview. “But trouble happens to banking just like trouble happens everywhere else. In the good times you get into bad habits . . . When bad times come they lose too much.”
Munger was speaking on the veranda of his home in Greater Wilshire, a leafy neighbourhood of Los Angeles where he has lived for 60 years since he designed the property himself.
Dressed in a plaid shirt, Munger held court from his wheelchair as the travails of ailing California-based bank First Republic were playing out in real time on a television screen airing CNBC in the background.
Berkshire has a long history of supporting US banks through periods of financial instability. The sprawling industrials-to-insurance behemoth invested $5bn in Goldman Sachs during the 2007-08 financial crisis and a similar sum in Bank of America in 2011.
But the company has so far stayed on the sidelines of the current bout of turmoil, during which Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed. “Berkshire has made some bank investments that worked out very well for us,” said Munger. “We’ve had some disappointment in banks, too. It’s not that damned easy to run a bank intelligently, there are a lot of temptations to do the wrong thing.”
Their reticence stems in part from lurking risks in banks’ vast portfolios of commercial property loans. “A lot of real estate isn’t so good any more,” Munger said. “We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centres, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.”
…
Yahoo
Business Insider
The US will suffer a recession – and don’t expect the Fed to rescue stocks when that happens, top Macquarie economist says
George Glover
Sun, April 30, 2023 at 11:30 AM PDT·3 min read
Market crash 2008
Investors shouldn’t expect the Federal Reserve to bail out stocks when the US economy suffers a recession, according to Macquarie’s head of economics David Doyle.
Lucas Jackson/Reuters
– The Federal Reserve’s latest minutes showed policymakers expect a “mild recession”.
– But the US economy is likely headed toward a more severe downturn, according to Macquarie’s head of economics.
– The central bank still won’t rush to stocks’ rescue if that happens, David Doyle told Insider.
The US is headed for an even worse recession than the Federal Reserve is expecting – but the central bank still won’t bail out stocks when that happens, according to Macquarie’s top economist.
David Doyle, the Australian financial services group’s head of North America economics, said in a recent interview that inflation is too high for investors to be able to rely on the prospect a “Fed put”, which refers to when policymakers ease monetary policy to support the economy and markets.
“Over the past 10 years the playbook has been ‘buy the dip, and the Fed will always come riding to the rescue if it sees any economic weakness’,” he told Insider. “I’m not so sure that that will be the playbook for the next six to 12 months.”
“Put it another way – the Fed put probably isn’t as strong as it was two to three years ago, five years ago, or 10 years ago, and that’s just a consequence of the inflation environment that we’re still in,” Doyle added.
The Fed has raised interest rates from near-zero to around 5% in just over a year in a bid to tame inflation, which had run at four-decade highs before cooling in recent months.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-suffer-recession-ndash-dont-183000532.html
“…don’t expect the Fed to rescue stocks when that happens…”
Based on experience back to 1987, Fed rescues are priced in as a free insurance benefit.
If the Fed discontinues the policy, you can expect some bad juju on Wall Street.
Re: “Waves of money printing have turned banks into ‘drug addicts’ reliant on cheap cash . . .”
Wasn’t that the very idea behind “money” printing (a/k/la legalized counterfeiting) ? The funny thing is that it is always the recipients of the counterfeit money (created out of thin air with an intrinsic value to match) who get blamed while the printers themselves get off scot-free.
the printers themselves get off scot-free
The ROI in politicians and regulators is very high.
Why the stock market is smarter than any of us – including the bears
By Ken Fisher
April 30, 2023 11:54am Updated
00:10 / 01:12
The banking crisis isn’t over. The Fed is still hiking rates. Earnings look weak.
The bears are still groaning, and whatever the reasons they cite on a given day, you can be sure they are claiming that rising stocks are the product of irrational markets that are turning a blind eye to obvious risks or calamities that lie ahead.
Nonsense. Stocks see every risk that the headlines are blaring – always, and better than you, me, or these roaring bears. The S&P 500’s continued rise shows that fears over the banking crisis and other supposedly terrifying tales are false or overblown.
Think I’m kidding? Yes, it’s at odds with the common, maybe comfortable sentiment that the stock market is mired in chaos and we’re all basically flying blind. Nevertheless, the fact is that markets imperfectly, but rationally, digest millions of diverse facts coldly and emotionlessly, aggregating them into prices representing all widely known information and opinions — missing nothing.
Yes, they wiggle around wildly, briefly — and seemingly irrationally. As Ben Graham, the legendary “father” of security analysis, said in 1949, in the short-term the stock market is a voting machine. Popularity and emotion can swing it. Longer-term, he deemed it a ”weighing machine” and noted that it weighs all factors remarkably well.
Individual investors tend to struggle with that, whether from personal bias, ego or what I call the “Pessimism of Disbelief,” which I detailed in my March 5 column.
Consider recent bank busts that have sparked global contagion and banking collapse fears. In my March 15 column, I explained how Silicon Valley Bank’s fall stemmed from its uniquely concentrated venture capital oriented deposit base, making a bank run easy but contagion unlikely.
If you didn’t believe me, believe this: Through April 28 the S&P 500 is fully 6% higher than before SVB’s woes erupted — rivaling the high year to date. US financial stocks fell further then — but even they staunched their downside over the last month.
Contagion? Where? It’s true that regional Federal Reserve Bank emergency borrowing expectedly jumped in San Francisco and New York — SVB’s and Signature’s respective homes. But it didn’t jump anywhere else.
Was Credit Suisse contagion? Decades of lousy management killed it – 92% off its post-financial-crisis high before SVB blew up. Zero surprise. Teetering, it collapsed from mere fear of spreading problems. Markets fathomed this. Headlines and individuals couldn’t.
…
https://nypost.com/2023/04/30/why-the-stock-market-is-smarter-than-any-of-us-including-the-bears/
BullDude seems to have forgotten about Mr Market’s panic-driven 50% CR8R event from September 2008 through March 2009. Was that the action of an all-seeing all-knowing rational weighing machine?
From the past…
Buttonwood: Betting on Bernanke
Feb 17th 2011 | from the print edition
LET all equity investors give thanks to Ben Bernanke. Global stock markets were struggling in the first half of 2010 but began a remarkable rally in August once the chairman of the Federal Reserve signaled that the central bank would launch another round of quantitative easing.
Higher share prices are part of the Fed’s plan. Back in November Mr. Bernanke wrote in the Washington Post that “higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.”
a virtuous circle
In 3D, his circle is a cyclone, that sucks all the money to the top.
I suppose the bulls like Mr. Ken Fisher would say that nobody could have seen Ben Bernanke’s Quantitative Easing coming, not to mention over a decade of Extraordinary Accommodation to follow.
For a long time now, the Fed has been the primary driver of Mr Market’s major moves.
Yahoo Finance
Stocks rally to cap weekly gains as Amazon sinks, First Republic collapses
Myles Udland
Fri, April 28, 2023 at 1:23 PM PDT·1 min read
Stocks rose on Friday to cap a volatile week with each of S&P 500 (^GSPC), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) logging weekly gains.
The S&P 500 and Dow rose 0.8% on Friday while the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. The Nasdaq rose over 1.2% for the weekly, leading gains among the major averages.
The biggest movers Friday came from the tech and banking worlds, with shares of Amazon (AMZN) falling more than 3% after the company warned of a slowdown in its AWS cloud business on its earnings conference call Thursday night.
Elsewhere in the tech space, Snap (SNAP) shares fell more than 17% as the company again warned of a revenue slowdown as a sputtering ad market continues to weigh on the company’s growth.
Investors were also keeping close tabs on shares of First Republic (FRC) as the struggling lender appeared set to enter FDIC receivership this weekend with reports suggesting the US government has been unable to secure a buyer for the bank.
First Republic stock fell more than 40% on Friday.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-rally-to-cap-weekly-gains-as-amazon-sinks-first-republic-collapses-200219990.html
Yay…we’re saved! Now that the value has dropped through the floor, the bids are flowing to snap up First Republic at a fire sale price.
Financial Times
First Republic
JPMorgan, Citizens and PNC submit bids for First Republic
US regulators race to sell all or part of struggling California bank before it opens for business Monday
First Republic branch
First Republic and some government officials had hoped the bank could negotiate a deal avoiding receivership. That now seems unlikely
Stephen Gandel, James Fontanella-Khan, Brooke Masters and Colby Smith in New York and James Politi in Washington an hour ago
At least three large banks have submitted bids to buy all or part of First Republic, the embattled California lender that US regulators have been racing to save this weekend.
Among those that have put in offers are JPMorgan Chase, PNC and Citizens, according to three sources with knowledge of the situation.
JPMorgan, which led an effort to save First Republic a month ago, is no longer working as an adviser to First Republic, according to a source familiar with the situation, freeing up the bank to rejoin the process as a bidder.
It is still not clear that a deal will get done, and other bidders could emerge. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which is leading the government effort, had set a deadline of 12pm Eastern Time for potential bidders, but sources said it was likely the window would remain open.
…
Video of trucks burning in Dearborn highlights what makes electric vehicle fires so dangerous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUEA9hEIRiA
oop was going to add this video, watch at the 3 min mark
Why Tesla Fires are Impossible to Put Out
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5vDWhMHTwE
When I was in HS Chemistry class, the teacher dropped a small sliver of pure Sodium into a pot of water. There was an explosion. It was one of the few times I was fully awake in Chemistry class.
Lithium is in the same column of the periodic chart and is Sodium’s nasty little brother. It will rip the Oxygen out of the water molecule to combust.
Gasoline doesn’t do this to water, so you can use water (steam) to starve it of oxygen.
Why would anyone in their right mind buy one of these death traps?
Are Teslas Death Traps? Failing Brakes and Violent Fires Spark Major Fears
F.J. Hoar
Sun, Mar 3, 2019
Tesla and media outrage go hand in hand these days. It is usually because of something that Elon Musk has tweeted about the SEC, but occasionally it is because a Tesla vehicle is involved in a crash. As reported by Zero Hedge, yet another of Musk’s line of luxury electric cars has had a serious accident. With a history of major fires alongside accusations of “auto-pilot” failure, fatal Tesla crashes get an obscene amount of media coverage. Is it fair that Tesla gets raked over the coals every time something like this happens? Are those batteries as safe as Tesla claims and are the NHTSA tests of lithium battery-powered electric cars sufficient?
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https://sports.yahoo.com/teslas-death-traps-failing-brakes-171907872.html
‘Very clearly, we’re seeing prices reduce in the rate of increase. In Dublin, there has been a fall in house prices over the last two or three months. We’re seeing a more significant fall in house prices in second-hand or existing dwellings. There definitely is a fall in [these] house prices’
‘And when you try to withdraw it very quickly, you find it’s like a drug addict. It’s gotten used to the drug. And you can’t provide the old levels of the drug because they’ve gotten used to new high levels. And so it seizes up when you do that’
Seizes up?
And when you try to withdraw it very quickly, you find it’s like a drug addict. It’s gotten used to the drug. And you can’t provide the old levels of the drug because they’ve gotten used to new high levels. And so it seizes up when you do that’
Sounds like they’re just making sh!t up as they go along.
making sh!t up
That’s the only way to explain a mania.
Ok so, the plan to take over the World was to inflitrated global Government , and have them transfer by “Treaty” absolute power to the United Nations and WHO to destroy Country Sovereign Nations and protections by constitutions.
The WEF under Klaus Schwab, colluded with the CCP to corrupt and inflitrated the United Nations . Currently , 7 heads of UN are held by CCP members, and Bill Gates partially funds the WHO.
The plan was a take over of World by Rich Corporations , the CCP, guys like Bill Gates, for a new One World Order dictorship by transferring power to UN/WHO, by “treaty” by contrived and false Global Pandemics and Climate Change fraud emergencies to justify the power grab. .
Biden , without approval by Congress/
Senate, signed the WHO treaty along with 195 corrupted Countries Governments, to a unelected World Health Organization .
So, fake and censored news won’t cover the story about about this power transfer that would give WHO power to supersede
all treaty members Constitutions .
The “Treaty” would give WHO to force injections, lock down Countries, enact marshal law and send in forces The Covid Pandemic was a trial run, to see what they could pull off and perfect their next attack. a.They plan a new Global Panademic before the 2024 election, whereby WHO will enforce the response by ” treaty ” twill inflict a round of fake killer vaccines at the targeted populations.
Call you r senators/congress gress to stop the Biden Treason by Treaty
Continued….
The fake and censored news won’t cover the Biden Treason by Treaty, and they are distracting you will every conceivable other type of attack , and cover up .
Make no Mistake that China, the WEF, the United Nations,Banks, Rich Elites, Big Pharmacy, and Guys like Bill Gates, Soros and deep state , have launched a One World Order Innsurrection with a end goal of 1984 ish enslavement and mass genocide.
Because its so evil its hard to believe. Their weapons of mass destruction are a different type of warfare , deception and trickery..
Also Tucker was reporting a new wave of military aged Chinese invading our borders recently. Another report I heard was that Germany Big Pharmacy was partnering with China to make the fake vaccines, masks, PCR tests etc. that US Citizens took.
They controlled the fake news to create a deception on who the players in the scam to poison a bunch of Americans was.
And they can’t explain why Dr Fauci funded a bio lab in Communist China and partnered in research with a potential rival Country to US.
Ok, so Paul Watson did a segment on a new group of people that identify with being disabled.
He shows a clip from TV where this lady took out her own eyes because she Identified with being blind. The Doctors on the show were dismayed that a medical professional help her blind herself.
Its a new breed of underrepresented people called ” trans-abled ” that identify with being disabled, that want disabilities because that is what they identify with.
Its a new breed of underrepresented people called ” trans-abled ”
“evil at one time or another seems good,
to him whose mind a god leads to ruin.”
Sophocles
Blueskye,
I don’t like disclosing all the E-V-I-L and crimes against humanity that are epic by these Powers that have a end game plan to kill or enslave the populations of many a Country, for a One World Order of total control.
But, if you add up all the evidence, and separate the wheat from the chafe, the conclusion is mind blowing in terms of evil..
V where this lady took out her own eyes because she Identified with being blind.
I saw that segment. Unbelievable. England is worse off than we are!
The American Rescue Plan of 2021 lowered the 1099-K reporting threshold from $20,000 over 200 transactions to just $600 from any number of transactions, effective January 1.
” The American Rescue Plan ” uh huh rescue who ?
It’s so that the billionaires pay their fair share, they told us. Nothing screams “billionaire” quite like a person living in a single wide, selling used trinkets on Ebay.
When will they outlaw barter?
rms,
Barter will not be allowed because they will have surveillance on all humans. Picture drones and robots enforcing lack of compliance by humans. Why do you think they want humans to live in 15 minute City prisons?
They actually plan to take all private property, you will eat the bugs, they will control and distribute all resources in accordance with what they deem necessary. I know, its bizarre but they actually write this stuff as their goals.
There’s already a documentary: Beyond the Reset
“I know, its bizarre but they actually write this stuff as their goals.”
Rosa Koire has passed away but years ago I used to post her material on this blog regularly.
U.N. Agenda 21 Critic to Speak in Kodiak
Brianna Gibbs August 27, 2014 News 96 Views
Brianna Gibbs/KMXT
One of the leading voices against United Nations Agenda 21 is coming to Kodiak this week. Rosa Koire is the author of Behind the Green Mask: U.N. Agenda 21, and director of the Post Sustainability Institute, an organization that studies the impacts sustainable development could pose on individual freedoms.
U.N. Agenda 21 is a worldwide action plan for sustainable development that was created during the U.N. Conference on the Environment and Development that took place in Brazil in 1992. It is a non-binding action plan that can be voluntarily implemented on a local, national or global level.
Koire believes the plan is really about globalization and could potentially limit the freedoms of individuals worldwide.
“It’s the worldwide blueprint – the action plan – to inventory and control all land, water, minerals, plants, animals, all means of production, all energy, education, law enforcement, information and human beings in the world.”
Koire has traveled the country speaking against Agenda 21, which she said the U.S. has signed on to.
“It was agreed to by George H.W. Bush and then President Clinton, right after he took office, created the President’s Council on Sustainable Development and that in effect made it binding in the United States. And it has been implemented in the U.S., all over the U.S.”
According to Koire, Agenda 21 is often used as an urban plan or land use plan, like smart growth and high density development in cities.
“They don’t have to be large cities, this is basically concentrating the population and moving them out of the rural and suburban areas into the highly concentrated city centers. So you can see that process beginning in Anchorage, there’s a smart growth plan in Homer, as a matter of fact.”
https://kmxt.org/2014/08/u-n-agenda-21-critic-to-speak-in-kodiak/
They don’t have to be large cities, this is basically concentrating the population and moving them out of the rural and suburban areas into the highly concentrated city centers.
The plan has shifted into the 15 minute city.