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Landlords Have Seen Their Simple, Modest Investment Spiral Into A Money Pit They Can’t Wait To Get Rid Of

A report from the Pueblo Chieftain in Colorado. “Pueblo’s real estate market experienced another rough month in May. The median sales price now hovers around $300,000, which dropped nearly 12% this May when compared with last year and ‘is down 1.6% year to date,’ said Dave Anderson, spokesperson for the Pueblo Association of Realtors. Percent of list price received by sellers also dropped 1.5% in May to 98.9% and is down 1.5% year to date. That means sellers ‘are having to make concessions to get homes sold and that is contributing to an increase in average days on market, which is up 42.2% year to date at 91 days,’ Anderson explained. ‘The open houses are happening, but potential buyers aren’t showing up,’ he said.”

The Record-Courier. “Douglas County’s housing market appears to be cooling off, according to Sierra Nevada Realtors. The median sales price in East Fork Township, which includes Carson Valley and Topaz Ranch Estates, was up to $530,000, up 1.9% from April, but down 10.5% from May 2022. The first quarter of 2023 saw a drop in home sales in the township from 131 in the last quarter of 2022 to 104 in the first quarter of 2023, according to the Douglas County Assessor’s Office. That was the lowest number since the second year of the Great Recession in 2009 and the lowest number in any quarter since. The median sales price of homes sold during the quarter dropped to $543,700, with the average price of $645,416, both decreases from the fourth quarter of 2022.”

Hawaii Real Estate Dreams. “This is a very strange market. No inventory, with sluggish sales and lots of price reductions. Yet some properties still sell for full price or even occasionally over-asking. The last time I asked I think the membership in our local association, WHAR, had right around 823 Realtors. As of the end of May, only 217 of them had closed even one transaction in Kona. Now there are a lot of locations, styles of property, semi-retired agents etc in that 823 I’m sure, but wow… only 26% had a sale. The state says that Big Island vacation rental occupancy for April has dropped to 49%. The next iteration of the new proposed vacation rental legislation is set to debut as early as July 5th to the County Council. The new legislation wants to regulate and require permits for what has previously been referred to as hosted vacation rentals where the owner or their representative lives on site.”

“The County has openly stated they want ALL of these to turn into long term rentals. Neglecting to consider that the owners might want to also use them for family and friends and that doesn’t work. The penalties start at $10,000 currently. Who wants to take that chance? Crazy!”

Fox 7 in Texas. “So we saw this headline, this article from Newsweek that said Austin was one of seven cities across the country where the housing market is, quote, crashing. Do you feel like that’s accurate or is that being a little overdramatic? Ashley Jackson, president of the Austin Board of Realtors: I think that’s a little overdramatic, and it’s certainly an eye-catching headline. But the Austin market is not crashing. The Austin market is stabilizing. We’ve had a price correction, but we remain steady and strong. Over the past few years, a buyer may have only had one choice in the neighborhood, just one house. Do you like that house? You better get that house. Whereas now a buyer should have 4 to 5 houses to choose from.”

Yahoo Finance on California. “In Los Angeles, there are 400 available listings for single families over $5 million, representing 18% of the total single-family inventory of around 2,200 homes, according to a filter search on Redfin.com. But there are a lot fewer buyers in this price range. ‘We have a good amount of inventory,’ Josh Altman, co-founder of the Altman Brothers. ‘I think the buyer has the upper hand. Across the board, the buyer mentality is all about a deal these days,’ Altman said.”

Market Watch on California. “Question: I was a victim of FOMO during the housing market craziness and bought a house for $200,000 over the asking price. Now house prices are coming back to reality, and I feel like I lost my hard-earned money. I don’t know what to do as I am living with constant stress thinking that I made a big financial mistake. My wife and I are in our 30s and are working in the Bay Area and making about $320,000 combined yearly. We didn’t end up relocating to the new house, because I wasn’t sure that I would be able to go that far from my job’s location and from our current friend circle. We decided to continue our stay at the condo we bought in 2016, and we rented our the house we bought this year (monthly mortgage is $4,450 inclusive of everything, however we’re only getting $3,250 in rent). I feel like I made a very bad financial decision and am doubting my skills to manage finances/investments effectively. What should we do?”

“Answer: First of all, know you’re not alone: This has happened all over the country as tight inventory forced bidding wars. And kudos for knowing that it’s time to face the music and figure out what to do next. Selling isn’t your only option, and it might not be the right one. ‘What is the likely future of the property? With inflation raging, we would be justified to think that rent will increase over time and eventually will make the property pass breakeven on a cash flow basis. At that point, at least the investment will not be bleeding cash,’ says certified financial planner Chris Chen.”

From KDVR. “Rent.com released its June rent report, and the results have some refreshing news. Rent is dropping in the U.S. compared to where it was a year ago. Cities whose rents had shot up last summer are seeing their markets cool now. Austin’s rent dropped over 20% in the last year, or about $440 a month for the median apartment. New Orleans had a similar drop in rent, while Las Vegas, Houston and Seattle had sizable rent decreases.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “The City of Vancouver approved a record number of housing units last year, according to a city staff report, but still made the province’s list of municipalities that need to step up their housing game or deal with the consequences. Hani Lammam, executive vice-president of Cressey Development Group, said higher interest rates and additional costs such as city fees have pushed up how much it costs to build new housing. People can only pay so much, particularly in rent, he says. Taken together, he said that means a lot of projects that have been approved can’t move forward.”

“‘The problem is that the formula to build housing doesn’t currently work,’ Mr. Lammam said. ‘There has been a lot of housing approved. Unfortunately, what has happened over the past couple of councils is the city got really aggressive with negotiating community benefits, to the point where these projects became not feasible. So it only took a blip in interest rates to throw everything off, so nothing works now.’ “Mr. Lammam adds that approvals aren’t a measure of the right supply. ‘I’ve been telling the housing staff at the city they have to stop publicizing their approvals, because it doesn’t matter; you can’t live in an approval,’ he said. ‘They’re approving projects that can’t get built, or else they aren’t the right product.'”

“‘Our industry is now taking a second look at our [calculations] and saying it’s costing more to build, it’s costing more to lend,’ said Matthew McClenaghan, senior vice-president of development at Edgar Developments. ‘And there is a threshold in regards to what a purchase price or sale price can be. So there’s a bit of a pause in the market right now in regards to starting construction. Just because it’s approved doesn’t mean it will get built, and that’s where we are at today.'”

The Telegraph. “Britain’s buy-to-let landlords are being squeezed from every direction right now. When Rami El-Boghdadly embarked on his career as a landlord it seemed like a copper-bottomed way to build up a nest egg for his young family. Rami and Hiba are accidental landlords. When their son was born in 2006 they bought a three bedroom terrace in Worsley, Salford, for £116,000. The young family lived there happily but once their second child was born they needed more space. And at first everything went to plan. But, over the past three years, Rami and his wife have seen their simple, modest investment spiral into a money pit they can’t wait to get rid of. ‘It just does not seem viable to make money out of property,’ said Rami. ‘It might once have been a wise investment, but it isn’t any more.'”

“The couple found a long-term tenant and all was well until the onset of the pandemic. ‘She stopped allowing us access to the house so we had no idea what was going on,’ said Rami. When the tenant gave notice and moved out in January what they discovered horrified them. She had painted over the laminate floors, around the furniture, said Rami. ‘She had painted the kitchen, including the cooker and the extractor. The garden was destroyed. She had ripped out the decking and converted it into some sort of forest, covered in cigarette butts and broken glass.’ Rami estimates that putting the damage right will cost around £20,000.”

“Until the autumn Rami was paying £197 per month for his mortgage, set against rental income of £850 per month. Today his mortgage has shot up to £788 per month, and of course he has no rental income at all. ‘It is absolute madness,’ said Rami. ‘Don’t forget that house prices are falling and no landlords are buying, and whatever we do sell it for we will have to pay capital gains tax because it has been rented.'”

From Bloomberg. “Sweden’s beleaguered property sector suffered another blow when one of the largest office landlords in the capital was downgraded to junk status by Moody’s Investors Service. Stockholm-based FastPartner AB saw its rating cut one step to Ba1 with the possibility for further downgrades to come if the company cannot shore up its finances. The cut ‘reflects the rapid increase in interest rates combined with subsequently challenging capital markets,’ Moody’s said. The property firm, with 80% of its rental value from the Greater Stockholm area, joins a growing list of so-called fallen angels that have seen their ratings leave the investment grade bracket and enter high yield. The rating actions are exacerbating a financing crunch in a market that is seen as a canary in the coal mine for Europe’s real estate industry given much of the debt is short term and floating rate.”

“Armed with an investment grade rating, companies such as Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB and Fastighets AB Balder were able to raise billions of dollars of debt on the bond markets during the era of zero interest rates. But with a jump in interest rates and the prospect of falling property valuations, landlords have been increasingly unable to defend their credit ratings despite efforts to offload assets and seek alternative bank financing.”

ABC News in Australia. “Property owners are leaving the short-term accommodation market like Airbnb in favour of long-term renting as the rising cost of living dampens appetites for holidays on the Gold Coast, according to a property management firm. The director of property management firm Manage My BnB, Linda Hildingsson, said she had noted a decline in short-term rental bookings ‘with each rates rise that we’ve had over the last six months. Easter was nearly 40 per cent down on last year,’ Ms Hildingsson said. She said of the 140 short-term letting properties her business manages about 50 have converted to long-term renting. ‘They just weren’t booking out at all,’ she said.”

“Investment property owner Courtney Brown said her two bedroom unit in Kirra has been ‘consistently booked’ over the past four years. She said since the start of the year she had noticed a significant downturn in her Airbnb bookings. ‘I lost my income from my unit. It was paying my mortgage and my rates and my body corporate. Now it’s not covering anything,’ she said. ‘People aren’t spending, people aren’t going away as well because that’s more of a luxury. As it’s become really quiet I looked at my account statement [and said] ‘I don’t have the money to cover this.'”

From Bloomberg. “Chinese homeowners are losing conviction in their decades-long belief that property is a reliable store of wealth, undermining even coveted markets like Shanghai and adding pressure on authorities to find new sources of economic growth. Asking prices in the financial hub have slumped for three straight months, falling to the lowest level since before China emerged from Covid lockdowns at the end of last year, according to Centaline Group.”

“Despite surging inventory, transactions in the city tanked by one third to about 16,000 units in May compared with March, the Economic Observer reported this month. ‘Selling pressure is really piling up here’ in Shanghai, said Jun Li, chief investment officer at Power Sustainable (Shanghai) Investment Management, a Canadian financial firm. ‘It seems homeowners have reached a consensus that the market has peaked.'”

“Existing home prices in 100 cities recorded the biggest decline in May since at least 2022, according to data compiled by China Index Academy. ‘Shanghai has the most sluggish existing-home market in China right now,’ said Yan Yuejin, a research director at the e-house China Research and Development Institute. ‘Across the nation, supply and demand in the secondary market have also deteriorated. Homeowners in the southern metropolis of Shenzhen have cut prices to the lowest level since October 2016, according to data compiled by Centaline Group.”

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This Post Has 172 Comments

  1. ‘Over the past few years, a buyer may have only had one choice in the neighborhood, just one house. Do you like that house? You better get that house’

    Ashley has a mouse in her pocket that she apparently talks to.

    1. Ashley is by no means accountable for bad decisions influenced by her pocket mouse advisor. She is the hapless victim of circumstances beyond her control that no one could’ve seen coming.

  2. ‘Homeowners in the southern metropolis of Shenzhen have cut prices to the lowest level since October 2016’

    Oh dear…

      1. “Existing home prices in 100 cities recorded the biggest decline in May since at least 2022, according to data compiled by China Index Academy.”

        Sounds as though home ownership is a money losing investment in China.

        Does that imply that Chinese housing investors are losers? Or will the government somehow bail them out?

        1. Markets
          China’s central bank cuts two benchmark interest rates
          AFP Published about 7 hours ago

          BEIJING: China’s central bank on Tuesday cut two benchmark interest rates, following several similar measures in recent days in a bid to counter the post-Covid growth slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

          Last week, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered two other key rates and pumped billions into financial markets, as fresh data showed the economy continued to struggle.

          The policy easing moves are the most significant yet by leaders who are trying to invigorate growth after recent indicators showed a hoped-for strong recovery after years of lockdowns was running out of steam.

          China’s efforts contrast with those in the United States and other Western countries, which have been forced into a series of interest rate hikes while reducing money supply to tame inflation.

          On Tuesday, the one-year Loan Prime Rate, which serves as a benchmark for corporate loans, was reduced from 3.65 percent to 3.55 percent, the PBoC said in a statement, while the five-year LPR, which is used to price mortgages, was cut from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent.
          …
          https://www.brecorder.com/news/40248803/chinas-central-bank-cuts-two-benchmark-interest-rates

  3. ‘I was a victim of FOMO during the housing market craziness and bought a house for $200,000 over the asking price. Now house prices are coming back to reality, and I feel like I lost my hard-earned money. I don’t know what to do as I am living with constant stress thinking that I made a big financial mistake’

    FOMO Victim, take a deep breath, sit down, put yer head between yer knees and kiss yer a$$ goodbye!

      1. And get yourself another financial planner. Holy cow! That response made me suck some coffee down the wrong pipe! Either Chris Chen is a complete idiot or he has several homes between the Bay Area and Sacramento that are currently about to bury him.

        2. It’s Marketwatch. First they banned any commenter who was to the right of Bernie Sanders. Then they got rid of comments for 70% of their articles. Then they had the gall to slap a paywall on all their articles, as if their advice had value. I couldn’t find any good website stats for them, but I’d be surprised if people pay money for this crap.

    2. “…I was a victim…”

      Fascinating how a couple make $320K and who are clearly professionals with advanced degrees could self hypnotize with FOMO.

      Then, after obtaining a post-graduate degree in idiocy declare themselves ‘victim’.

      Dr. Phil, can you help us diagnose?

      1. Fascinating how a couple make $320K and who are clearly professionals with advanced degrees could self hypnotize with FOMO.

        It makes sense. All of their social peers were buying property and getting rich. The government was pumping the assets. The party had no reason to stop.

        1. And I’ll bet the down payment was funded via stock options or RSU’s, so no scrimping and saving was involved. The money magically appeared when the stock vested, which made an impulse purchase easier.

          1. And I’ll bet the down payment was funded via stock options or RSU’s…

            It is quite the dopamine rush when that money hits the brokerage account.

          1. Here’s a new listing: 13012 Avenida La Valencia, Poway, CA 92064

            Let’s look at the costs and estimates for this home:
            Home price $2,150,000
            Monthly payment $14,393
            Loan 30-Year Fixed loan at 7.149%
            Principal & Interest $11,616
            Property tax $2,240
            Home Insurance $538
            Total due at close $516,000
            Down payment (20%) $430,000
            Estimated closing cost (4%) $86,000

            My first question: insured by what company now that the 3 largest have pulled out of CA?

            Now, let’s assume 40% of gross income goes to monthly payment. That’s a required annual gross income of $431,790.

          2. “My first question: insured by what company now that the 3 largest have pulled out of CA?”

            The three largest insurers have pulled out, maybe prudent individuals should do likewise.

          3. maybe prudent individuals should do likewise

            We’re tied here for another 9-10 years.

          4. Somehow I always figured that someone buying a $2 mil house isn’t a regular joe with a job putting 20% down. Presumably the buyer would already have half the price in cash from selling investments or is trading up from another house or got an inheritance, or is a doctor/lawyer with a half-mil salary who saved up for 5+ years.

            But then again, if I had the means to put a a million dollars down, why bother? Why not just retire on a Gulf Coast beach?

          5. insured by what company now that the 3 largest have pulled out of CA?

            I briefly spoke with our State Farm agent this afternoon. Those 3 insurers are just the latest and biggest. Roughly 30 insurers have pulled out of CA. California FAIR Plan at 3-4x normal rates is pretty much it these days.

          6. a doctor/lawyer with a half-mil salary who saved up for 5+ years

            I’ve been out of the rate race for a decade, but IME only big law firm partners make that kind of money. Most doctors and lawyers are up to their eyeballs in debt and get preferential rates from banks because of the expectation that their salaries will keep increasing. People making that kind of money are living in La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar or Solana Beach.

      3. you give them too much credit. most likely, coding technicians made in the speculative everything bubble of the last 7-8 years. all you had to do was show up for work with a paper showing that you had some coding skills, and voila, good paying job for you. the p[problem I see with those guys, in 12 months at leas one of them will have lost his/her job. and another 24, big chances that both will have either lost their jobs or will have to take a big cut to keep it. the ear of free money that spilled like a flood into the tech sector is over, regardless how hard they scream, AI, AI, AI, AI. At some point they’ll start counting the beans, and there wont be too many left.

    3. What about the option of selling the condo they live in now, and using it to bring down the mortgage on the big house? Oh…

      “I wasn’t sure that I would be able to go that far from my job’s location”

      Sounds like a work-from-homer who got called back to the office. A couple who brings in $320K should have no problem affording a $4500 mortgage.

      1. Same thing happened in the last bubble. Bay Area speculators swarmed all over these outlying areas. Places between there and Sacramento and up and down the I-5 corridor like Modesto, Tracy, Merced. Even as far south as Fresno. Some even commuted the distance. But when it became evident that the gold rush was over and they were screwed, like it will for this couple, they abandoned and fled. Making the Central Valley of California a ground zero for foreclosures. Get ready for the repeat.

    4. “…and bought a house for $200,000 over the asking price.”

      Of course his lender was, “all in!”

        2. EXACTLY the number. not one penny more or less, EXACTLY what is required to do the deal.

          Amazing how that happens every single time. Almost like it’s all fraud and a scam. But no Big Real Estate loves us and wants us to be happy .

  4. “Question: I was a victim of FOMO during the housing market craziness and bought a house for $200,000 over the asking price. Now house prices are coming back to reality, and I feel like I lost my hard-earned money. I don’t know what to do as I am living with constant stress thinking that I made a big financial mistake.

    Right on cue, here come the sob stories from reckless FBs about being “victimized.” News flash, unaccountable degenerate gambler: greed & stupidity has consequences. You & your ilk contributed to driving the Fed’s Housing Bubble 2.0 to new heights; now I’m going to LMAO as your “hard-earned money” flies off to whatever afterlife awaits fictitious Yellen Bux “value” flying off to debauched currency heaven.

    2. “…I was a victim of FOMO…”

      Don’t think I have ever seen a single MSM story about a “victim” finally accepting responsibility for their own actions.

      It’s always gotta’ be someone else’s fault.

      We now live in a world in which a large fraction of the population is absolutely spineless.

      Spineless = AKA losers

      1. “It’s always gotta’ be someone else’s fault.”

        A result of today’s therapeutic college degrees.

  5. “Pueblo’s real estate market experienced another rough month in May. The median sales price now hovers around $300,000, which dropped nearly 12% this May when compared with last year and ‘is down 1.6% year to date,’ said Dave Anderson, spokesperson for the Pueblo Association of Realtors.

    Pueblo is a gang-infested barrio sh*thole. Enter at your own risk.

    1. There are far better ways to depop humanity than this piddly vax. In fact, NO vax would have killed far more.

      3. I have four inlaws who have developed cardiac issues, even though they have no family history. Two had to be hospitalized, one almost died at the ER.

        All jabbed and boosted, every single one of them. And they were so proud and confident they did the right thing when they rolled up their sleeves.

          2. There isn’t a single “the” spike protein. mRNA and J&J encoded for *different pieces* of the spike protein. The vaccines cannot be directly compared.

          3. *different pieces* of the spike protein

            It’s not worth my time digging up the information to show who’s right. You’re going to believe whatever you need to cope. I’m happily unvaxxed.

        2. I got one doze, and I do have some history, but I must confess, my heart ain’t the same the last year or so. not sure if it has anything with the the vaccine, but it’s hard not to think about it…

      4. NO vax would have killed far more.

        How do you know this? It’s going to take a couple of years just to figure out how many people died during this supposed “pandemic”. There’s no point in even trying to figure out an estimate of any excess mortality caused by Covid-19. The raw mortality data isn’t available, and even if it was I don’t trust it. I’ve been over to CDC website many times and the statistics are just useless–they have lots of pre-crunched data already tabulated and manipulated. It’s as if the Feds don’t want anyone to look at the raw data.

        1. Fine, but what about other vaccines? Like measles or malaria or polio or smallpox? If the goal is to depopulate, why have any vaccines at all? Let the viruses have their way and let the chips fall where they may. Or better yet, why try to dig wells for clean water or fix electric lines that break, or even enforce traffic laws? You want to depop, shut off the power and the civilization.

  7. Ashley Jackson, president of the Austin Board of Realtors: I think that’s a little overdramatic, and it’s certainly an eye-catching headline. But the Austin market is not crashing.

    Realtors are liars.

    1. I was just watching a local realtor’s San Diego market update. He was bemoaning how the “promised” downward pressure on mortgage rates wasn’t materializing.

  8. The Austin market is stabilizing. We’ve had a price correction, but we remain steady and strong.

    You keep using that word “stabilizing,” realtor dissemblers. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

  9. And at first everything went to plan. But, over the past three years, Rami and his wife have seen their simple, modest investment spiral into a money pit they can’t wait to get rid of. ‘It just does not seem viable to make money out of property,’ said Rami. ‘It might once have been a wise investment, but it isn’t any more.’”

    Houses are for living in, not speculative malinvestment. Die, speculator scum!

  10. “Investment property owner Courtney Brown said her two bedroom unit in Kirra has been ‘consistently booked’ over the past four years. She said since the start of the year she had noticed a significant downturn in her Airbnb bookings. ‘I lost my income from my unit. It was paying my mortgage and my rates and my body corporate. Now it’s not covering anything,’ she said.

    Die, speculator scum. Houses are for living in, not speculative malinvestment.

  11. Selling drugs in broad daylight in plain view of a busy street yesterday, this is at 50th Ave and North Washington in Denver, go see it for yourself, they are here every day:

    https://ibb.co/mbp1ZCD

    1. Same location just a few minutes ago:

      https://ibb.co/pxtDPwg

      This is what “progressive, compassionate” drug laws create. And this being a public blog, maybe someone can reach out to Mayor elect Johnston about this.

      And when Gavin Newsom is installed into the White House, this is what all of America will look like.

    2. To be fair: I immediately recall seeing 3 drug deals in broad daylight: two in NYC; and, the third between a high school and our San Diego (Carmel Valley) condo complex.

      1. Every. Day. The bus stop by my local King Sooper’s is a drug dealing and overdose hotspot, EMT and Fire Department there every other day scooping someone off the sidewalk. All paid for by Colorado taxpayers.

        1. Every day driving around the city any more than a few miles away. Drove up Broadway / Lincoln into downtown today and in less than 20 minutes counted at least fifty tents, people pushing carts, street corner beggars, and just a lot of ragged looking people (it’s the METH if you know the symptoms to visibly detect) tweaking and crawling and staggering around.

          New normal, Denver 2023.

          1. Where are all these drug addicts coming from? I don’t buy the story that ALL of them had some surgery somewhere and got hooked on opioid painkillers. They seem too young and too healthy for that. Are they all really snowflakes from broken homes who wanted to “escape?” Doesn’t seem right either.

            Maybe it’s the gateway drugs: booze, pot, Ritalin, Adderall, and whatever else they’re giving them when they’re 8 years old and fidgety in school.

  12. Repo men are busy as the pandemic-era subprime auto bubble has burst and loan delinquency rates are rising. Banks are going to eat some huge losses for their reckless loans to non-credit worthy “How Much a Month?” Harry dipshits living large with stimmy checks. Nobody could have seen it coming….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPfnkhLvjn4

    1. Just before the camdemic, the local Ford dealer moved to a new, larger, shinier location, and the old one sat unused. Anyway, I drove past the old location yesterday and it was chock full of pickup trucks they can’t unload.

      This crash is going to be spectacular.

      2. Sold my truck of 22 years (2nd gen dodge diesel) last month. I’m gonna get another truck. But fortunately my wife and I are in a position to do the one vehicle thing for a while. Reason being there ain’t now way I’m buying in this market.. Almost as idiotic as buying a home right now.

    2. Not even how-much-a-month. Many of them never made any payments at all. Those deadbeats used the stimmie as a down payment, and the banks, desperate to lend out the newly-created Powellbucks, had to approve those loans. Then the deadbeat joyrode for free while there was a moratorium on repos during the rona. And that’s why I won’t buy a used car. I’ll drive my Camry another 7-8 years before I buy an overpriced pandemo used car.

    1. As a good comrade, I was ready to roll up my sleeve for another J&J jab, but apparently that safe and effective jab was pulled from the market.

      1. With every day that passes I am gladder and gladder that I refused to roll up my sleeve.

      2. J&J themselves requested that the FDA discontinue the EUA. All the doses they manufactured have expired by now, and in the meantime the virus itself evolved all the way down to just another cold. They have no plans to offer a shot for variants, and maintaining an EUA was a cost they didn’t need to pay. Good for J&J. Unlike Pfizer and Moderna, they didn’t seem interested in making profit or in milking the virus for yearly boosters.

  15. “Landlords Have Seen Their Simple, Modest Investment Spiral Into A Money Pit They Can’t Wait To Get Rid Of”

    Does this mean the strategy of buying any property whatever for whatever offer was necessary to win the bidding war, in order to rent it out at whatever amount the local rental market would bear, is no longer profitable?

    It just goes to show you that the sun don’t shine on the same dog’s ass all the time.

        1. For institutional lenders it’s absolutely not. The only way you get financing without homeowners insurance is if you find a moron of a private lender willing to take on that risk.

          1. Like the condemned and foreclosed hoarder house down the hill that had a 2-alarm fire on Saturday night? Buyer and lender are both Chinese. Buyer paid just over $1M with $300K from lender.

          2. Buyer and lender are both Chinese.

            Living in San Diego is a lot more surreal than when I left. Of course, all these changes happened gradually, so like the proverbial frog in the pot one slowly becomes accustomed that which would normally be shocking.

      2. You can’t get a new mortgage. For those who already have a mortgage, the lender will buy the insurance for the property at whatever cost and charge you for it. If you don’t pay, then foreclosure.

        1. I see people on Nextdoor not infrequently considering how infrequently I go on that site asking for referrals.

    2. “But State Farm’s exit from California last month due to wildfire hazards caused a stir.”

      The insurance companies and energy utilities are huge targets, and Newsom has them in his crosshairs.

      1. How do put a utility in the crosshairs? Take out a utility and you’ll harm yourself more than the utility.

        1. There is no intention of “taking out” insurance companies or utilities, just the desire to completely control (and tax) them via never ending regulations.

      2. What’s the state equivalent of nationalization? Isn’t that what Newsom wants to do?

        1. Nationalize, without actually expropriating them. Just bury them under regulations and taxation and they are for all practical purposes state property. Much cheaper than shelling out billions to actually purchase them.

          2. Seizure

            Well, if Cali goes full commie, sure. But even Mexico paid restitution when it expropriated the oil industry in 1938. I recall seeing footage of Mexican school children emptying their piggy banks to help pay.

            The problem with seizing is that future investors will avoid your nation, state, etc. like the plague. Sell your bonds? Good luck with that.

          3. Sell your bonds? Good luck with that.

            We’re already losing reserve currency status.

          4. We’re already losing reserve currency status.

            True, but that basically means we will have to pay more interest and denominate our bonds in something other that the USD. But if we seize property with no compensation no one will buy our bonds.

    3. neighbor is an independent insurance agent, he says EVERYONE has gone up some by dramatic amounts (up to double). probably 50% of his business is in Colorado but he says it’s everywhere esp Florida and Kalifornia. Insurance companies lost billions last year and they are cranking down what they are insuring, excluding everything and doing actual due diligence again.

      1. Some parts of Colorado are very high risk for fires. But I think the Marshall Fire caught everyone by surprise, as it was in suburbia and not in the sticks.

  17. Real estate is a very risky bet, since you are putting all your eggs in one basket. It is also highly leveraged ranked just below derivatives in terms of risk. For ‘mom and pop’ investors its success has almost entirely depended on home values increasing. And the best way to ensure that is buy low. The problem with that is real estate cycles are painfully slow. That means you get one, maybe two cracks of the whip in a life time. To cash flow even on cash purchases you need $1,000 in monthly rent for every $100k invested. Almost impossible to achieve in this market. With fixed income products now offering better yields than rentals and less hassle, the tide in turning against investing in RE.

    For FTBs trying to get on the property ladder and build wealth, invest in patience. It will yield better returns. We are going through a tumultuous cycle impacted largely by a radically changing interest rate environment. Home prices are under pressure to decline, but it is a slow process and not helped by very low inventory. However, it is almost certain mortgage rates will not return to 2-3% again, since this caused so many problems we are still facing. That can only mean prices continue to decline. At some point inventory may increase as would-be sellers capitulate. We are in a standoff between buyers and sellers. Sellers have had their day. All good things come to those who wait.

    2. “That means you get one, maybe two cracks of the whip in a life time.”

      This is my third time bubble surfing. Early 90’s So Cal, ‘08 and now. Never timed them perfectly, but managed to stay on the right side of things. And it wasn’t rocket science, just common sense. It always blows me away on the backside of every bubble people have asked “How did you know?!” And my reply is “how could you not?”

      And I agree….great post.

      1. it really only take common sense. it’s basic knowledge, like 1+1=3. If I remember right it’s classic synthetic a priori judgement. which shouldn’t exist because synthetic implies by experience and is a posteriori, but somehow your ration has the knowledge and experience before it happened. anyway, I knew and many others were talking about the 2008 bubble starting right about 2005. people know but are in denial because they are lazy and greedy. they hope that it won’t happen because it fits their calculations. too few people are disciplined enough to control their desires and greed.

        1. “it really only take common sense.”

          The intelligent visit a casino and enjoy the buffet options and maybe take in a cabaret show, but they don’t gamble because they know instinctively that the house wins. Unfortunately, the housing gamble requires participation at some level due to needing shelter, and the number of variables increase, e.g., education, medical, transportation, if a family is involved, which complicates the timing.

          1. you’re right about that. unfortunately when the entire economy is dead, the only thing left is speculating with shelter, transportation and food. that’s the only thing left of this economy.

    3. The FED will say no one saw this coming!!!

      Keeping ZIPR for 13 years and printing trillions did not cause this!!!

      /S

    4. At some point inventory may increase as would-be sellers capitulate.

      I’m starting to see this locally as the “promised” 5% mortgage rates aren’t materializing. I also got an email from Realtor.com this morning with an $80K price reduction. Meanwhile, Hubby’s depressed we’ll never get a house. He’ll be happy when we have one mortgage-free.

  18. “With inflation raging, we would be justified to think that rent will increase over time and eventually will make the property pass breakeven on a cash flow basis.”

    Is he talking about Bay Area housing prices?

    1. The Mercury News
      Owning a home in the Bay Area now costs twice as much as renting
      The region has the biggest cost differential of any U.S. population center
      A sign is posted in front of a home for sale on May 11, 2023 in San Francisco, California.
      (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
      By Ethan Varian | Bay Area News Group
      PUBLISHED: June 3, 2023 at 6:05 a.m. | UPDATED: June 6, 2023 at 4:00 a.m.

      Owning a home in the Bay Area now costs more than twice as much as renting one, the largest disparity of any major population center in the country, as homeownership stretches even further out of reach for many local residents.

      San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland tallied the biggest cost differences between renting and owning among U.S. cities, according to a new report by real estate listing site Redfin.

      In San Jose, the monthly mortgage payment for a typical newly purchased home is an estimated $11,049, a 165% premium on the median rental price of $4,176, the report found. In San Francisco, the discrepancy is 139%. It’s 99% in Oakland.

      In much of the rest of the country, a typical home costs 25% more to buy than rent.
      …
      https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/06/03/owning-a-home-in-the-bay-area-now-costs-twice-as-much-renting/

    2. California
      8 California Cities Experiencing a Sharp Decline in Home Prices: From Boom to Bust
      by Michael Rivera
      June 5, 2023
      Home Prices in California and best places to live

      California, the Land of Dreams, is recognized for its spectacular coastal views, delicious and fresh food, as well as booming industries in Silicon Valley and Hollywood. However, living in California comes with a high price tag.

      If you’re unaware of the soaring property prices in the Golden State, bear in mind that living expenses, including essential commodities and housing, are on the higher end.

      But don’t lose heart. We present a list of eight Californian cities where home prices have seen a substantial decline. These cities could potentially be your next home in this diverse West Coast state.

      San Francisco
      – Sept. Median Sale Price: $1,196,667
      – 3-month change in price: negative-$188,333
      – 3-month change in price: negative-15.74%

      San Francisco, the city on the shores, has something for everyone, from dog parks to tech or start-ups. However, the rental costs here are sky-high.

      Despite the 101% rise in rent in 2021, San Francisco continues to attract young professionals, making it an excellent place to kickstart your career and own a home simultaneously.
      …
      San Diego
      – Sept. Median Sale Price: $853,333
      – 3-month change in price: negative-$55,000
      – 3-month change in price: negative-6.45%

      Looking for a classy place to call home? San Diego is available at a reasonable price. Known for its beaches and sunny weather, this “America’s Finest City” is also an educational hub, hosting several top-ranked institutions.
      …
      https://www.southwestjournal.com/california-cities-sharp-decline-home-prices/

      2. – 3-month change in price: negative-6.45%

        Not according to this. He’s showing a 7% increase in 4 months.

  19. Crackhead Hunter is getting probation for the two federal tax charges, and “pre-trial diversion” for the gun charge, the latter of which could have been a sentence up to ten years.

    Now let’s hear more about the $10 million (or $20 to $30+ million) of bribes that Real Journalists have been conveniently ignoring.

    Rules for thee, not for me.

    1. The soft tyranny we are experiencing in this country reminds me of Mexico’s days of one party rule. If you behaved you would be left alone. There were no gulags and and the minority opposition was allowed to have their own newspapers and point out all the corruption. But just like now in the US, the ruling elite were never held accountable.

      This was tolerated in Mexico for decades as the economy and middle class grew. And yes, there is a middle class in Mexico. It’s different and smaller than ours. Compared to now, Mexico was relatively safe and crime free

      Then the late 1960’s rolled in. There were communist student protests that resulted in the Tlatelolco massacre (just weeks before the Mexico City Olympics), and that was when everything began to unravel, though the unraveling took time.

      The graft went off the scale in the 1970’s and they printed away, resulting in high double digit inflation. The economy began to sputter and then in 1976 the unthinkable happened: the Peso, which had been tethered to the USD at 12.50 for decades, was devalued. This was a huge shock in Mexico and confidence collapsed as everyone tried to hoard USD. Booming oil exports stopped the bleeding for a few years, until oil prices crashed in the early 80’s. Then things really spiraled out of control and Peso went into free fall. The PRI tried austerity; but it was too little too late.

      Still, the PRI held onto power until Vicente Fox of the opposition PAN party was elected president in 2000, and that was the end of the PRI’s one party rule.

      Anyway, it took over 3 decades for the PRI to lose its grip on Mexico. That said, the PRI never did resort to hard tyranny like in Cuba or Venezuela. I think the US is at a crossroads in that regard and I am concerned we will go to the dark side.

      2. “Booming oil exports stopped the bleeding for a few years, until oil prices crashed in the early 80’s.”

        Somebody in Mexico made money filling in the hole left by the OPEC oil embargo.

        1. It took time to crank up production (especially for corrupt PEMEX) but once they did it was good times, until it wasn’t.

          The oil sales helped keep the Peso overvalued. So much so that I knew UMC people who would fly to Texas with empty suitcases and fill them up with new clothes, as it was a lot cheaper than buying comparable stuff in Mexican department stores. Once the oil prices crashed the Mexican peso, which has managed to hover around 20 to a USD, collapsed to 100, and kept sliding. For a brief period the government made it illegal to possess USD, to keep people from hoarding. The change from good to bad times was swift and Mexico didn’t recover for 20+ years.

  20. Bubble is alive and well in 19040! Friends selling house received cash offer $25,000 over asking (for a 4BR, 3BA, 1800 sq ft w/1 car garage).

      1. Yep, that’s the one. Good for them, but cannot believe someone is spending $500K on it.

        2. Don’t worry, the appraiser will totally protect the Bank (mortgage co) as a disinterested 3rd party and properly value that property…………………….. (yeah, right. )

          1. sorry, i didn’t see cash offer. (Reading is fundamental). Yeah, they gonna get boned.

            25k over asking in cash. Damn right your friends should take it and run.

    3. Is that one example, or are there many? Remember in this part of the cycle you’re still going to see that. Look for trends and also look outside your region. It doesn’t burst all at once. Some places lag a year or more. But nowhere is immune. Refrain from being myopic and see the big picture. Your anus will thank you for it.

      1. I sold on the same street a year ago. Never even had to list it. That area is being propped up by families wanting to leave NE Philly. But I would surely like to know how they have $500,000 in cash.

  21. June 14th 2023
    Ray invites a real estate expert to explain the local market…Minute 23:45
    https://omny.fm/shows/ray-appleton/ray-invites-in-3-realestate-proffesionals-enny-che

    David Rooney, Zuber Real Estate Team
    “We have a shortage of inventory, which I checked this morning, just Fresno and Clovis single-family homes, there are just a LITTLE over 400 homes for sale.”

    A quick check on realtor shows me Fresno, CA SFH = 979 while Clovis, CA – 322. Total 1,301 SFH for sale

    In summary. REALTORS ARE LIARS

        1. but its Adele Adele…..and she demanded to keep the rocky statue near the pool…..such entitlement.

          1. I can’t understand having pictures and statues of oneself everywhere in the same place you live; the shrinks likely know more about this syndrome.

          2. The saddest thing about this is that his iconic statue is from a movie he made 47 years ago. As if he’s done nothing else since.

  23. I was mistaken on the house in my neighborhood that sold for $499,000–I thought that it just sold, but the sale occurred last November. The house is immaculate and I swear I saw people coming and going, and there was always a car (Honda Fit) in the driveway. Turns out the Honda Fit actually belongs to someone else–they were just using the driveway for parking.

    The price it sold at is the absolute peak for similar homes in this area. So who bought it? The house is being maintained exactly the way it was when the previous owners lived there. Who would buy a house for that price in this distant city from L.A. and not move in? If an investor bought it, they’re going to get a steep haircut.

    Crazy.

  24. I have a question. Who stays at AirBnB rentals? When I used to travel for business, I stayed at Marriotts or similar hotels. Same with everyone in my Company. Easiest and fastest way to travel. I don’t go on vacation away from home much these days, but when I did, I stayed in local motels or hotels. I wasn’t a slob but I expected my room to be cleaned everyday. I would never accept terms like I hear about concerning AirBnB places.

    1. I occasionally stay at Airbnbs. It’s a good option for weekends visiting my son at college (especially on football weekends when hotels jack up their rates and sell out quickly). Also stay in them on some vacations, depending on the area. But I’m really picky about the ones I choose.

    2. Clearly there is a lot of money on the line for the short term stay business. It seems logical that at some point the motel industry is going to get serious about defending their turf. What is to stop various trade groups from taking over councils and doing battle? Seems like Hawaii would be one of the first places where this would happen and you would expect to see huge fines and other draconian measures.

      There should be a few choice markets where this will decimate the AirBNB model and there will be a significant number of ‘former AirBNB’ foreclosures to choose from. I expect that term to come to mean the property is in good shape and worth looking at if the price is low enough. I would even expect that at some point there will be at least one extra special market where it is so prevalent that the whole area becomes known for it.

      1. “The new legislation wants to regulate and require permits for what has previously been referred to as hosted vacation rentals where the owner or their representative lives on site….The County has openly stated they want ALL of these to turn into long term rentals.”

        Banning a short-term rental in a primary home seems pretty draconian to me. There have been “paying guests” for hundreds of years.

      2. See, that’s what i don’t get, why aren’t the hotel owners out at every single city council meeting. Hotels pay a LOT of money in taxes (property, sales, tourism, etc, etc, etc) that unlicensed hotels (airbnb’s) just skip out on. Why should hotel owners be paying this (and commercial rates for utilities and insurance and fire and such) when the cheaters/speculators just get away scot free. They need to get in there and protect their business.

        1. why aren’t the hotel owners out at every single city council meeting

          Perhaps the local mom-n-pop hotel owners were there, but lacked the fat brown envelopes that make AirBnB so persuasive?

    3. I have only every stayed in one once, in La Jolla about 5 years ago. It was at a guest house at a private residence about 3 blocks from La Jolla Shores beach. It was much cheaper than staying at a real hotel in La Jolla. This was back in the days when there were no “clean up” fees, etc.

    4. There is ZERO comparison to a hotel. In my experience hotels are good for sleeping and some time by the pool with all the other slobs but that’s about it. STR is a house! You can get to your vehicle in less than 15 seconds. I can let my dog run around the back yard and play. There is no summer softball team at 3am whooping it up in the hallway. I may or may not have a porch to sit on and enjoy the weather. Full on kitchen, washer and dryer. We have stayed at Westins and yes, they are nice and have amenities but not just for you. Nothing is private like a house. Even if $100-$200 more it’s worth it.

  25. ‘As it’s become really quiet I looked at my account statement [and said] ‘I don’t have the money to cover this’

    Courtney, have you been eating? Becoming a winnah! involves sacrifices.

  26. ‘had right around 823 Realtors. As of the end of May, only 217 of them had closed even one transaction in Kona. Now there are a lot of locations, styles of property, semi-retired agents etc in that 823 I’m sure, but wow… only 26% had a sale’

    I’ll have a blue Christmas without you
    I’ll be so blue just thinking about you
    Decorations of red on a green Christmas tree
    Won’t be the same, dear, if you’re not here with me

    And when those blue snowflakes start falling
    That’s when those blue memories start calling
    You’ll be doing all right with your Christmas of white
    But I’ll have a blue, blue, blue, blue Christmas

    You’ll be doing all right with your Christmas of white
    But I’ll have a blue, blue, blue, blue Christmas
    You’ll be doing all right with your Christmas of white
    But I’ll have a blue, blue, blue, blue Christmas

  27. ‘I feel like I made a very bad financial decision and am doubting my skills to manage finances/investments effectively. What should we do?’

    ‘Answer: First of all, know you’re not alone: This has happened all over the country as tight inventory forced bidding wars’

    That’s some red hotcakes right there.

  28. ‘We have a good amount of inventory…I think the buyer has the upper hand. Across the board, the buyer mentality is all about a deal these days’

    That’s the spirit Josh, keep up the good work!

  30. Half of homeless Californians are over 50, didn’t earn enough to pay bills: report
    By Marjorie Hernandez
    June 20, 2023 | 8:02pm

    Almost half of homeless Californians are over 50 and lost their homes because they didn’t earn enough money to keep up with bills, the largest report on homelessness in the state for 30 years concludes.

    California has about 171,000 homeless residents, representing around 30% of the country’s entire homeless population. Over 3,200 people took part in the survey.

    Those who participated reported a median household income of $960 a month six months prior to finding themselves on the streets. Many said rental subsidies would’ve prevented them from being evicted and helped them stay on track.

    Rates vary depending on where people are across the state, but property company Zillow calculated apartment rent costs in California are the highest in the whole US with a median monthly rate of $2,542.

    “The results of the study confirm that far too many Californians experience homelessness because they cannot afford housing,” said Dr. Margot Kushel, director of the Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative at UCSF, which released the report.
    …
    https://nypost.com/2023/06/20/half-of-homeless-californians-are-over-50-report/

    1. “Those who participated reported a median household income of $960 a month six months prior to finding themselves on the streets.”

      IOW, they’re drawing federal disability. Plenty of laborers over 50 throw in the towel, cigarettes, too fat, etc.

      1. A career as a laborer over 50 years old is a bad plan. The body can’t handle it. Sure, somebody can kind of fake it on the job site, but a 20 year old with a strong back will make the 50+ year old look silly.

  31. The amount of lying and dissembling in high places to hide housing market losses is quite astonishing.

  32. Opinion
    California’s Outmigration Problem | Opinion
    Peter Roff , Newsweek Contributing Editor
    On 5/4/23 at 9:48 AM EDT

    Cultures have character—things that define them, differentiate them from others, and create the kind of mutual identity on which countries and civilizations are built.

    One that is almost unique to America is a kind of “wanderlust” that not only involves the desire to travel but the feeling that better opportunities are waiting for each of us somewhere other than where we currently are.

    It’s an impulse that’s caused America to grow. Whether it was the search for trails westward from the original 13 colonies, or the Great Migration when southern rural blacks moved to the rapidly industrializing north, or the gold rush that sent thousands of “forty-niner miners” to California in search of great wealth, the possibility that economic security could be found just by looking for it has caused populations to shift and communities to grow.

    What is not yet evident—except to the people who study the issue of outmigration closely—is that it is happening again. People are leaving blue cities and blue suburbs for the better economic conditions that exist in the red states.

    The state most adversely affected is California. It’s lost so many people compared to other states that for the first time since it gained statehood in 1848, it lost a congressional seat in the reapportionment that followed the 2020 national census.

    The reasons people are leaving are the subject of a new film by Siyamak Khorrami, who left his native Iran with his family when he was 16 in search of a better life. He understands what’s driving the “wanderlust” so many California residents are feeling.

    “I have the opportunity to reach as many people [as] possible about the true hardships in our state,” says Khorrami, who is both the producer and host of the recently released documentary Leaving California: The Untold Story. “While their stories are frustrating and heartbreaking, it’s inspiring to witness the tenacity and will of the people who are surviving despite their circumstances. Hopefully others, after seeing this film, will be equally inspired to act and make change.”

    Why people are leaving California is important, especially now that its governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom, has launched a stealth campaign for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination in case President Joe Biden stumbles.

    The idea is not as far-fetched as it might seem. A recent NBC News poll showed just 26 percent of likely voters in the next election think the incumbent should run for another term. If that were not bad enough, in that same poll 53 percent of people who said they voted for Biden in 2020 said he shouldn’t run again.

    If Newsom’s campaign becomes active and overt, he’ll likely run on his ability to do for the United States what he’s done for California. Progressives will love it.

    Whether everyone else will love that promise too depends on understanding why so many have left California for deep red states like Texas, Florida, Montana, and Idaho.

    California Policy Center President Will Swaim, who’s featured in Khorrami’s documentary, puts it simply enough. “California’s bad ideas go national, really fast. if California fails, the United States fail[s].” Under Newsom, problems like crime and homelessness have exploded. The infrastructure is collapsing, public schools are failing, and the business environment has grown so unfriendly that in just the first six months of 2021, during the middle of the pandemic lockdowns, 74 companies moved their headquarters out of the state.
    …
    https://www.newsweek.com/californias-outmigration-problem-opinion-1798186

    1. Let’s not let Colorado be the next shrinking state | PODIUM
      By Greg Fulton 4 hrs ago

      California was once the land of opportunity, but now, like the states of New York and Illinois, it is seeing a drop in population and exodus of business. The Hoover Institute, a conservative think-tank, posits economics was the primary cause of relocation, citing high taxes, burdensome regulations and a high cost of living as compared to states like Texas and Florida.

      At the turn of the Century, California had a population of 34 million and prognosticators predicted it would grow to 45 million by 2020. Conditions changed along the way, though, leading to a slowing of growth and then an outright decline in the state during the last few years. Rather than growing, the state began to see an out-migration of people beginning in 2019, when California hit its peak of 39.6 million people. Instead of 45 million in 2020, California had a population around 39.5 million, and they have been losing people since. In 2023 the population now stands at 38.9 million. That’s an out-migration of almost 700,000 people. That number would have been a lot worse if not for a large increase in foreign immigration into the state.
      …
      https://www.coloradopolitics.com/opinion/lets-not-let-colorado-be-the-next-shrinking-state-podium/article_76261300-0fc9-11ee-b0bc-8b08e4aef91f.html

      1. “That’s an out-migration of almost 700,000 people.”

        You would think that kind of mass exodus would really hammer housing demand. What happened to the housing units the exiters left behind?

        1. What happened to the housing units the exiters left behind?

          Why not just hodl?

          Thanks to prop 13, holding costs in CA can be exceptionally low. And thanks to government policies at local, state, and federal levels, asset prices are kept high.

    2. “Why people are leaving California is important, especially now that its governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom, has launched a stealth campaign for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination in case President Joe Biden stumbles.”

      It would be refreshing to have candidates closer to the center, e.g., a democrat who grew up in a family business, or a republican who needs an abortion for his mistress, rather than the extremists who are destroying the working class.

  36. Goodwill permanently closes dressing rooms in Colorado

    Goodwill of Colorado said it is “experiencing high levels of theft, substance abuse and vandalism in our fitting rooms.”

    When you think about it, this isn’t surprising.

    1. Sadly there is a steady stream of other things that aren’t fit to print that occurs regularly in their fitting rooms. The zombies are out of bodily control. Most people are only aware of the problem in SF and think it is limited to the street. It is actually being spread all around. FJB!

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