Brokers Said They Had Begun To Offload Non-Performing Assets For Underwater Owners
A report from Bay City News Service in California. “Bay Area cities have experienced some of the biggest drops in home prices across the country, including Dublin at the top of the list, according to a new study evaluating typical home values from May 2022 to May 2023. Dublin’s year-over-year home value dropped by $229,706 (15.37%), to rank No. 1 in the report. The average home value in Dublin still remained at nearly $1.26 million. Pleasanton (seventh, at a 12.11% drop), Livermore (15th; 10.67% drop) and San Ramon (17th; 10.02% drop) also finished in the top-20 of largest declines, according to the report. The report says Palo Alto’s homes are ‘atypically expensive’ for a smaller city. While the cost decreased by 12.82% over the year, the city’s typical price in May 2023 was still $3.16 million. Out of the top 10 cities with lower prices, Oakland was the only one with a typical home value under $1 million. Its home prices fell by 12% in the past year to $814,053.”
From USA Today. “It just got more difficult to become a homeowner. The typical starter home sold for a record $243,000 in June, up 2.1% from a year earlier and up more than 45% from before the pandemic. However, in three metros including San Francisco, Austin and Phoenix, a homebuyer could get away by earning a little less than the previous year and still afford a home. A homebuyer in San Francisco must earn $241,200 to afford the typical ‘starter’ home, down 4.5% ($11,300) from a year earlier. Austin buyers must earn $92,000, down 3.3% year over year, and Phoenix buyers must earn $86,100, down about 1%. Those are also the metros where prices of starter homes have declined most, with median sale prices down 13.3% to $910,000 in San Francisco, down 12.2% to $347,300 in Austin, and down 9.7% to $325,000 in Phoenix. Starter-home prices are falling in those three metros after skyrocketing in 2020 and 2021.”
The Garden Island. “Sales of single-family homes on Kaua‘i plunged 49 percent in the first six months of the year, marking the largest percentage decrease of the four major Hawaiian Islands. At the same time, the median price of a single-family home eased 8.33 percent to $1,100,000 from $1,200,000. O‘ahu posted a 34.65 percent decrease in single-family home sales to 1,277 in the six months ended June 30, compared with 1,954 in the six months ended June 30, 2022. At the same time, the median sales price dipped 5.51 percent to $1,050,000 from $1,111,211.”
The Real Deal. “A subsidiary of New York Community Bank — the largest lender to New York rent-stabilized landlords — recently filed to foreclose on eight properties belonging to two of them. The building owners, including one whose family has held the properties since the late 1990s, fell behind on debt payments to Flagstar Bank between February and May and failed to cure the defaults, leading the lender to bring cases in July, court and property records show. Brokers said they had begun to offload non-performing assets for underwater owners. Sugar Hill Capital, one of the largest multifamily owners in Northern Manhattan, faced a foreclosure filing on a $16 million mortgage in November.”
“New York Community Bank recently downplayed an uptick in distress on its balance sheet. In an earnings call last week, CEO Thomas Cangemi said the bank had seen no late payments or delinquencies on multifamily. Landlords on Twitter scoffed at the characterization. ‘I’m beginning to think banks spin the truth like brokers in this industry,’ CHIP’s Jay Martin wrote. The bank’s quarterly report showed a 154 percent jump in multifamily debt 90 days or more past due since the first quarter.”
The Washington Post. “A surge of shootings in D.C. that left 13 people dead in the first five days of August has rattled neighborhoods from Adams Morgan to Anacostia, with each new victim a grim reminder of the city’s failure to contain violent crime. Nothing officials try seems to have much effect — at least in the short term. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson (D) said Sunday that he has asked the new police chief to give lawmakers suggestions on providing ‘more resources for the police.’ Council member Trayon White Sr. (D-Ward 8), whose district includes the place where three people were fatally shot and two others wounded Saturday night, said in a text message, ‘We need the National Guard in D.C. The crime is out of control and getting worse by the day,’ White said. ‘Kids and innocent people are getting killed. It’s becoming status quo with no end in sight.'”
“Police continued to examine that sprawling shooting scene on Good Hope through Sunday morning, cordoning off the length of three city blocks of shops, apartments and tree-lined homes. At least 30 white circles could be seen marking apparent evidence in the case; a car had a bullet hole in its driver side door. There were packages of Narcan, a nasal spray to reverse opioid overdoses, in the grass. Beneath a wooden awning were remnants of a violent night: a wound seal kit, a bottle of liquor and a pack of cigarettes. People sat on the steps of a church nearby, appearing to inject themselves.”
The Canadian Press. “The future of a homeless shelter in the northern Ontario city of Timmins is on the line as many residents blame it for a rise in crime while others, including the mayor, say that ongoing social issues and a lack of resources are the real problem. Timmins Mayor Michelle Boileau said she was the only council member to oppose the resolution because she didn’t want to support the narrative that unhoused people and shelters cause problems.”
“Robert Boucher, who lives blocks away from the shelter and owns a few short-term rental properties in the area, said there has been an increase in criminal activity in the neighbourhood, including in his backyard, which is adjacent to a walking trail leading to the shelter. He said area residents have been dealing with more home invasions, theft and assaults, and many of them have been finding human feces and contaminated needles in front of their homes and businesses. ‘It’s just been crime non-stop, like, every day it’s something new,’ he said. ‘It’s just been a total nightmare.'”
ABC News in Australia. “A Ballarat-based residential home builder with 20 full-time staff has entered voluntary administration after nearly 30 years of trading. Bond Homes built transportable homes in its Ballarat yard and had 16 homes under construction, with four of those ready for handover. Part-owner David Rowe said he was devastated. ‘I have put my life into the business. I just feel really numb,’ he said. ‘It is the end of the business, unless someone comes along with a cash injection.'”
“Since 2021, over 2,500 Australian construction companies have gone into administration, liquidation, or receivership. Mr Rowe said Bond Homes’ financial decline could be traced back to 2020 when the federal government launched its HomeBuilder Grant. He said the company sold 12 months worth of houses within the first few months, but then material prices rose and labour shortages worsened, leading to low margins and restricted cash flow. ‘We are another typical victim within the building industry,’ Mr Rowe said. ‘If that builders’ grant wasn’t there, I suspect a lot of builders would have been around today, because they were stuck with a fixed price contract, which they couldn’t get out of.'”
Newshub New Zealand. “More than six months on from the Auckland Anniversary floods, some affected residents are reaching their financial breaking point. One homeowner whose central city property was looted after he evacuated has decided to get rid of it, knowing he’ll sell it at a loss. The property is located in the upmarket, central suburb of Parnell. But it was inundated during the January weather event – and as if that wasn’t difficult enough, it was looted by vandals.”
“City Sales real estate agent Scott Dunn is trying to sell it on behalf of the owner, who chose not to be identified. ‘If you total what he’s had to pay out every week for outgoings, plus the loss of financial gain from his business, we’re talking tens of thousands of dollars this owner is in the hole for, already,’ Dunn told Newshub. The entire bottom level needed fixing and the owner has lost patience with the drawn-out process. ‘The original timeframe for completion was about 10 weeks. I think they’re coming up 26 now,’ Dunn explained. ‘The seller can’t wait any longer so he’s going to market as is, where is.'”
“And it seems he’s not alone. CoreLogic’s Q1 Pain and Gain Report shows properties selling at a loss have hit a seven-year high. To make matters worse for the owner, he says during the inspection of flood damage, contractors discovered remedial work done to fix leaky issues was not up to standard, so the property will need its third Code Compliance – another hurdle he’s not in a position to wait for. The owner’s insurer has paid for his temporary accommodation – but he’s lost the income he had when he was renting it out.”
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‘Mr Rowe said Bond Homes’ financial decline could be traced back to 2020 when the federal government launched its HomeBuilder Grant. He said the company sold 12 months worth of houses within the first few months, but then material prices rose and labour shortages worsened, leading to low margins and restricted cash flow. ‘We are another typical victim within the building industry,’ Mr Rowe said. ‘If that builders’ grant wasn’t there, I suspect a lot of builders would have been around today, because they were stuck with a fixed price contract, which they couldn’t get out of’
These shack builders in Australia are the whiniest b$tches on the planet. Give us gravy, oh that gravy sunk us, I need a cash infusion!
If he had ordered the materials when he got the orders he would have been better off. Wonder why he didn’t. Yet he blames the government.
“He said the company sold 12 months worth of houses within the first few months, but then material prices rose and labour shortages worsened, leading to low margins and restricted cash flow.”
Once again, the textbook Austrian description of how a bubble and bust unfold.
‘I’m beginning to think banks spin the truth like brokers in this industry’
Are you saying they are a lion Jay?
‘The seller can’t wait any longer so he’s going to market as is, where is’
‘And it seems he’s not alone. CoreLogic’s Q1 Pain and Gain Report shows properties selling at a loss have hit a seven-year high’
Wa happened to my gain New Zealand? Usually they regal us with boffo profits when this comes out, but this is all I could find of it.
This is glorious.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12379537/Mitch-McConnell-HUMILIATED-chants-retire.html
Will he listen to his constituency?
Why does his constituency keep voting for his corrupt old arse?
Votes don’t matter. It is an illusion. The machines are fixed and the fix is in.
Perhaps stuff like this will fire up the primary elections and do what Wyoming did — toss out the oldheads and nepotists. We are in real new of new blood — preferably Gen X.
“The typical starter home sold for a record $243,000 in June … up more than 45% from before the pandemic”
Where is that? Somewhere in the Rust Belt?
45% a minor respiratory illness will always do that.
The FED and .gov ginned up the most diabolical, recklessly insane speculative everything bubble in the history of mankind, and it is STILL going. When you dump an over $10 trillion liquidity bomb of financial rocket fuel, you get sh!t blowing out everywhere.
$10 trillion liquidity bomb
I completely agree, except that I think the $10T was just the show money, like the tip of an iceberg.
$243,000
Forget the Levittown cape cod with a picket fence. Starter “homes” are now condos or rowhouses. With an HOA fee that nobody includes in their calculations.
^ Sponsored content post provided by the National Association of Realtors.
White House Wants Federal Agencies to “Aggressively” Slash Telework
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/white-house-pushes-us-agencies-to-aggressively-boost-in-person-work/ar-AA1eQkHZ
“The White House wants federal agencies to “aggressively” execute a shift to more in-person work starting next month, saying it is crucial to delivering government services.”
Wut about the being green?
Wut about the being green?
They can take the bus.
I’ve noticed most online forums are the most active during working hours, because these WFH phonies aren’t working, they’re just surfing the net, collecting a check.
You can surf the net from the office too — especially when you’re surrounded by empty cubicles where the WAH flunkies used to be. The WAH flunkies themselves were actively away from their computer, especially during the pandemic.
The Washington Post. “A surge of shootings in D.C. that left 13 people dead in the first five days of August has rattled neighborhoods from Adams Morgan to Anacostia, with each new victim a grim reminder of the city’s failure to contain violent crime. Nothing officials try seems to have much effect — at least in the short term. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson (D) said Sunday that he has asked the new police chief to give lawmakers suggestions on providing ‘more resources for the police.’ Council member Trayon White Sr. (D-Ward 8), whose district includes the place where three people were fatally shot and two others wounded Saturday night, said in a text message, ‘We need the National Guard in D.C. The crime is out of control and getting worse by the day,’ White said. ‘Kids and innocent people are getting killed. It’s becoming status quo with no end in sight.’”
\\
– Thus is Wa Po. No mention of Defunding the Police. It’s a mystery.
– $15M was cut from Wa DC Police.
– A total of $1.73B was cut nationally from 22 (Deep Blue) U.S. cities.
– New York: $1B cut.
– Los Angeles: $175M cut.
– Austin, TX: $150M cut.
– San Francisco: $120M cut.
– Washington DC: $15M cut.
– Democrat voters voted for this.
– A nation of useful idiots.
– Gooder and harder.
– BTW, for context, Socialism is Western Civilization devolving into barbarism. This is very bad in general, and esp. bad for CRE + RRE properly values.
– This is the intentional destruction of all that’s good in the U.S. by the Left/Communists. Prove me wrong.
– For those voting for this garbage, how’s that high crime “woken” out for ya?
– Judeo-Christian values, I hardly knew ya.
Those white supreme pizzas are out of control
“This is the intentional destruction of all that’s good in the U.S. by the Left/Communists. Prove me wrong.”
Marxists gonna Marx.
Southeast DC has always been a firing range. When DC held the title of murder capital of the country in the 80s-90s, Southeast was the MVP. No amount of “investment in the community” seems to change that.
Adams Morgan is a bit of a surprise tho. I haven’t been there in 20 years, but at the time it was a hoppin nabe with a hippie-lib vibe. Adams Morgan is only a half-mile from Dupont Circle, so by now it’s probably overrun with whatisawomans. Adams Morgan is more known for its rat population than any shootings.
CNBC — Majority of parents spend 20% or more of household income on child care (8/7/2023):
“Two-thirds of parents, 67%, spend 20% or more of their household income on child care, according to a recent report by Care.com that surveyed 3,000 U.S. parents. That’s up from 51% who reported spending that much in 2022.
Many day care centers shuttered during the pandemic, leaving the few that stayed open with limited slots available. That resulted in long waitlists — and fees to get on those lists, said certified financial planner Sophia Bera Daigle, founder of virtual firm Gen Y Planning.
Parents are also facing changes in their work situations. Some who had fully remote jobs during the pandemic are now having to go back to the office some or all of the time and are faced with new child care needs, added Daigle.
However, the bigger challenge is access to care, said Carolyn McClanahan, a CFP and the founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida. With fewer providers, if a family can’t find or access child care, one parent may be forced to leave the workforce, cutting off a second stream of income.
“It’s hard not to be a two-earner family,” said McClanahan, who is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/07/how-to-save-on-child-care-as-costs-are-high.html
Minor respiratory illness strikes again.
This was one of the arguments walmart and other business made decades ago , by being open 24 hours you can work different shifts and save or eliminate child care costs.
“Parents are also facing changes in their work situations. Some who had fully remote jobs during the pandemic are now having to go back to the office some or all of the time and are faced with new child care needs, added Daigle.”
I can’t honestly imagine anyone working from home with a child or two interrupting your thought processes.
I can’t honestly imagine anyone working from home with a child or two interrupting your thought processes.
It shows in their work IMO.
Psst, don’t tell my wife. I was damned glad to have a quiet office and a job (excuse) to leave the house all day. 🙂
Pssst. She’s damned glad you’re gone.
LOL
You’re probably right!
My husband and I finished a fight with this exchange:
H: What do you want?
Me: My own apartment.
One duplex, coming up!
😉👍🏻
Most weren’t working. Many jobs are are make-work that produce nothing. It’s hours in meeting that get nothing done that became conference calls due to WFH.
^^^^^^ agree 100% ^^^^^^
I can’t honestly imagine anyone working from home with a child or two interrupting your thought processes.
They’re not working.
MarketWatch — Are inflation and debt pushing you to raid your retirement savings early? You’re not alone (8/5/2023):
“Some Americans are struggling to feel comfortable with their finances, thanks in part to inflation, and they’re looking to their retirement accounts for help.
A handful of plan providers have noticed more workers raiding their retirement savings, either as a loan or a hardship distribution. Reasons included debt repayment, emergency scenarios and large purchases.
“People are dipping into retirement savings because they lack emergency savings,” said Catherine Collinson, chief executive officer and president of nonprofit Transamerica Institute. “There are telling findings that illustrate what people have been through over the last few years.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-inflation-and-debt-pushing-you-to-raid-your-retirement-savings-early-youre-not-alone-63e2f92f?mod=home-page
Minor respiratory illness is the gift that just keeps on giving.
A relative borrowed from his 401K to buy an SUV. To be fair, his house is paid for and he has no other debts. Not sure why he didn’t get a car loan, something about paying interest to himself.
something about paying interest to himself.
Wise decision. The Investopedia entry has a comprehensive blurb on it. Low cost, no interest, no tax implications, and no approval process because it’s already your money. Since stocks are going sideways anyway, he’s not missing out on any gains. And if he’s anticipating a stock market crash, he’s effectively selling high right now. So, it’s probably the best way to access a quick $50K.
Now, the decision to use the $50K for an SUV is another discussion…
Partly right. A loan from the 401K does have interest. It goes to your account and does not reduce your contribution limit.
That’s why the guy said “paying it to himself”.
As long as he can pay it back, he’s fine. If he can’t pay it back for some reason, it becomes a distribution subject to tax and the 10% penalty if he’s not old enough to take withdraws
A relative borrowed from his 401K to buy an SUV. To be fair, his house is paid for and he has no other debts. Not sure why he didn’t get a car loan, something about paying interest to himself.
It’s never a good idea to borrow from your 401K unless there’s a genuine emergency. It doesn’t matter how much money you might save on the loan–people who borrow from their retirement savings aren’t being prudent. They tend to be the ones who come up short in the long run. Even Honda is offering incentives on their vehicles–you can get a Pilot SUV for 3.9% on a 48 month loan.
His 401K balance is about $800K
If he’s got that much in his 401k, then he should have a lot of cash sitting around. And he should be making pretty good money at work. My brother has over twice that much and he also has a whole lot of cash and 4 cars including a couple of collector muscle cars. When he bought new cars, he never pulled money out of his 401k. Saving pennies using 401k loans is not smart financial thinking.
His 401K balance is about $800K
I just remembered–my brother has switched jobs over the years so has had to rollover multiple 401k funds. One of his smaller 401k he invested in a high-yield growth fund since it wouldn’t be much of a real risk. Well that was years ago and it has since made him 150k (or more, I can’t remember). Even my not so big 401k has done quite well over the years and I’ve been conservative with my investments.
If you’ve got lots of money, there have been easy ways to make good investments doing nothing.
My understanding is that all his spare cash went into paying off his house, which was done recently.
– Enjoyed The Everything Bubble boom? Now, based on previous historical outcomes, enjoy the ensuing bust…
– The government, including the Fed owns this as their reckless fiscal and monetary policies enabled rampant speculation. Remember that when the time of pitchforks and torches comes…
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https://www.newsweek.com/latest-housing-data-are-clear-bidenomics-heading-toward-crash-opinion-1816749
OPINION
Latest Housing Data Are Clear: ‘Bidenomics’ Is Heading Toward a Crash
Opinion
JUSTIN HASKINS , EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, THE HEARTLAND INSTITUTE
ON 8/7/23 AT 6:00 AM EDT
In recent weeks, the Biden administration has ramped up its efforts to fool Americans into believing the United States has entered a golden era of economic prosperity
Here’s what Bidenomics looks like,” President Joe Biden said July 21 on Twitter. “Over 13 million new jobs, including 800,000 manufacturing jobs. Unemployment below 4%, the longest stretch in the last 50 years. Inflation has slowed every single month for the last 12 months.”
As I’ve written previously, Biden’s claims about job growth and unemployment are greatly exaggerated. A fair look at the evidence shows most of the economic gains that have occurred in Biden’s first term are due to the COVID-19 lockdowns ending, something the White House deserves very little, if any, credit for.
Even more important, however, is that Biden has failed to acknowledge the growing amount of economic data signaling the country could soon enter an economic recession. One of the most overlooked and reliable indicators—housing data—suggests the emerging recession could end up becoming the largest in six decades.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2022, the U.S. housing market experienced one of the most significant increases in housing prices in American history. Data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis show that over that two-year period, the average sales price of a home skyrocketed more than 36 percent, from $403,900 to a whopping $552,600.
For the first time in history, the 12-month increase in home prices topped 15 percent for seven quarters in a row, beginning in the second quarter of 2021.
Many current homeowners celebrated the unprecedented rise in housing values, but those rapid increases came with an important caveat: whenever housing prices increase as quickly as they have in recent years, an economic, stock market, and/or housing crash is almost certain to follow.
The evidence on this point is well established. In the 1970s, late 1980s, and in the early to mid-2000s, there were similarly large, sustained growths in housing prices. In every case, a large recession followed. And although the rule doesn’t always apply perfectly, it tends to be that the bigger the increase in housing prices is, the harder the economy falls.
Increasing home values also come with increasing property taxes and insurance. There is usually no benefit to the homeowner. They can sell and make a nice profit, but the next home they buy will cost more. Rent prices will increase. The only real gain goes to the REIC and government.
but the next home they buy will cost more.
I think that for many, the plan is to retire and move somewhere cheaper. But that means leaving friends and family behind, and often means moving somewhere hot and muggy, and let us not forget that Clownworld wants to take away our A/C.
Clownworld wants to take away our A/C
I’ve thought about this.
When you read the headline ” Old boater arrested for illegally cooling his cabin cruiser with a deadly conversion of a harmless chest freezer”, you’ll know it’s me.
“The only real gain goes to the REIC and government.”
Enjoy your middle-east burden, slaves.
The first ‘starter home I bought in Vegas in 93, I put about twenty grand into it. Cant imagine a starter home today. Probably needs 40-50 K to mike it livable. The places in Phoenix where cheap (under 200K) houses are would be places I’d take a hard pass on living, especially if I had a young family.
We should start pitchforking and boiling planning and zoning boards. Anyone with a little piece 1/2 acre or more of property should be able to build whatever kind of ‘Starter home’ they want without the current morass of building codes, restrictions, and interference from local GovCo. Or….We could just wait out the great die off. After that, there should be affordable housing aplenty for everyone.
If we can survive the collapse of civilization a great die off would cause
The great die off has been cancelled and replaced with the great replacement. Soon the government will conveniently have a surplus of houses that it needs help deciding what to do with. Think of the anchor children!
“the great replacement”
The Language Police™ just added you to the naughty naughty list.
I think the great replacement has been going on for about thirty years. At least that is how long I remember my country being invaded by turd worlders. All while many told anyone pointing out the folly of illegal aliens to sit down, shut up, and stop complaining, or work harder like Juan does. Not that I ever had anything against Juan, its just that I cant go to his country and get away with the crap he does here.
I imagine the great die off will be like most other civilizational collapses. The Egyptians, The Aztecs, The Greeks, the Romans, all set the modernity of the time back hundreds if not thousands of years.
Sad to see that this reset is not the result of some natural event such as famine, war, cosmic black swan. It looks like its because a bunch of pedagogic psychopaths are unhappy that the plebs have attained a life style not all that different from theirs. After all, its not worth all they had to kill to get there if everyone can drive out to the country anytime they want. They want flying cars for them, and bicycles/rickshaws for us.
Hopefully the US will only go back in time to the early 1900s, not the 1600s.
Not that I ever had anything against Juan, its just that I cant go to his country and get away with the crap he does here.
Well said!
The die off is scheduled to be moved to the third world, courtesy of all the farms that will be closed because of warmism. Some of them will be brought to the first world as part of the great replacement, but many more are going to be starved to death where they live.
The third world might starve to death, but the newly industrialized first world — think China and Russia — are going to die too, of old age. They didn’t notice the dearth of children until a bunch of 20-somethings didn’t show up to work or to buy stuff, because those 20-somethings were never conceived (or they were 👧 who were aborted or adopted to other countries).
China’s One Child Policy continuing until the 2010s is a textbook example of government bureaucracy maintaining itself at all costs after its relevance has ceased. The amount of employment that goes into tracking females, their fertility, and making sure they get their abortion is huge.
but the newly industrialized first world — think China and Russia — are going to die too, of old age.
All the first world is a demographic time bomb ready to implode. Throw in some mandatory, experimental vaccines, an obesity epidemic, etc. and their population will also drop precipitously.
All part of the plan. Ever notice how governments and globalists are utterly unconcerned about premature death due to obesity, but they were screaming at us to get jabbed? Also how the “healthy at any weight” movement was never censored or accused of spreading misinformation?
They didn’t notice the dearth of children until a bunch of 20-somethings didn’t show up to work or to buy stuff, because those 20-somethings were never conceived (or they were 👧 who were aborted or adopted to other countries).
The Chinese have known about negative effects of the One Child Policy for a long time, but that doesn’t mean that they acted fast enough. In the early 1990s we got an intern in our office who was a graduate student in demography from China. The Chinese certainly were worried about their lack of knowledge and skills in demography back then. But even if they never instituted the One Child Policy, China was bound to run into the aging population problem they now have. The wealthiest nations on the planet, e.g. USA, Japan, Germany, Sweden, also are facing a demographic cliff because of their low birthrates and aging populations. Why do you think all of the affluent nations are welcoming millions of young migrants?
Why do you think all of the affluent nations are welcoming millions of young migrants?
As far as I can tell, most of those migrants are liabilities, not assets.
Explain why you think we need ever expanding populations on earth. Is it all. About GDP?
Explain why you think we need ever expanding populations on earth. Is it all. About GDP?
Jk
“Ever expanding populations” is a myth. No country in world history has experienced an “ever expanding population.” As countries become more advanced and rise from third world poverty, their population growth rates decrease to the point that every single developed nation on earth has reached its peak population.
The problem today is not population growth, but population loss–modern countries aren’t anywhere near their replacement population birth rates.
This is not correlated with economic growth. In the last 50 years, economic growth has been tremendous in the developed nations, and this has not been caused by an increase in population. Just look at the computer or smartphone device that you’re reading this on. 50 years ago none of this technology existed. Back then even the most wealthy people had a fraction of what is considered normal today. There’s no correlation between economic and population growth. In fact the correlation is negative.
The housing boom was a government revenue boom.
Over a month ago I “saved” nine hot hatch cars from around the country in AutoTrader that are priced with a ranking of “Great Price.” Not one of them has sold. Fogging a mirror is out; now they want a sizable down payment. Also, you have to be employed; no more covid parties with your homies.
The massive pull-forward of demand over the past 2-3 years will cause a massive decrease in demand over the next 2-3 years. This goes for housing, vehicles, vacations, furniture, electronics, appliances, etc. I saw more new car tags over the past 3 years than I saw in the previous 20 years combined. I saw more houses and apartments being built in the past 5 years than over the previous 30 years. This with declining marriage and birth rates and 70 million boomers ready to retire and die.
Anyone who truly believes there won’t be a recession is out of their mind. They can try to inflate away the nominal numbers, but the real numbers will show deflation and deep recession.
I saw more houses and apartments being built in the past 5 years than over the previous 30 years.
In my neck of the woods the great build up was the previous bubble. This time very little was built locally. YMMV.
I saw more new car tags over the past 3 years than I saw in the previous 20 years combined
That seems like an exaggeration. Were the past 3 years’ sales above average? They certainly were. Were as many new vehicles sold in the past 3 as the previous 17? Utterly impossible. Over 200 million new cars were sold during those 17 years. They did not sell 200 million new cars in the past 3 years, not even close. Maybe 50 million.
What did happen was that prudent people slammed their wallets shut and kept driving their old cars while broke azz spendthrifts used their stimmies to make the initial payments on cars they couldn’t afford in the first place.
Now, if we are to include used cars sales then things can get weird. I know young people who trade their used car for another used car every 6-12 months. That could help account for all those temporary tags.
I’m describing my city. The population went from 110K to over 200K in the blink of an eye. Our farms and ranches are gone, replaced by subdivisions and strip malls full of Karens. We even have tags from Alaska, Montana, Hawaii, Canada, etc here. It seemed like everyone who got a stimulus check went and bought a new car. Dealership lots have been almost empty since summer 2020. Meanwhile I’m still driving a 15 yr old Toyota with 320K miles.
It seemed like everyone who got a stimulus check went and bought a new car.
I got one or two of them, and I didn’t run out to buy a car. As I said above, the prudent slammed their wallets shut.
But I get it, your little burg had a massive growth spurt and your new arrivals bought new cars. It wasn’t like that everywhere.
“I got one or two of them, and I didn’t run out to buy a car.”
We bought a new front loading washer/dryer set with pedestals with our stimulus check. 🙂
Paid some cc debt with ours
I bought a dog with stimmy money. And frankly, it is good for the economy — he gets food and other stuff as constant expenses.
Karens? Do we have derogatory names for black women, latina, asian, or only white women?
Do we have derogatory names for black women, latina, asian, or only white women?
Only white middle-class liberal women are true Karens. It’s a cultural thing. Whites have unique cultural characteristics too, just like other racial and ethnic groups. Karens are reserved for them.
black women
I’ve heard a black man repeatedly refer to black women as German shepherds.
German shepherds
While most people think they are scary dogs, they are actually goofballs. Protective, territorial goofballs, but goofballs nonetheless.
Sadly (or fortunately), I did not receive any stimulus.
I did not qualify. I am one of the fools who worked hard, built a successful business (now in it’s 38th year with 150 plus highly paid employees), paid taxes through the nose and then retired at age 71 on a comfortable retirement plan.
And yes to you boomer haters, I receive my earned SS check on which I pay tax on most of it.
I am one of the fools who worked hard, built a successful business (now in it’s 38th year with 150 plus highly paid employees), paid taxes through the nose
Just a peon employee, but didn’t get any stimulus either — just worked and paid taxes.
Must be nice to get free money :/
‘Must be nice to get free money’
Remember the context: we lost almost all our rights and freedoms.
we lost
It was quite an experiment.
I did the same thing on newer used trucks, specifically F150. Just in the past few weeks the “price reduced” notifications have really ramped up. The inbox is being bombarded with PR notifications. Some them I “saved” like 4 or 5 months ago. No more “hotcakes”!
“Just in the past few weeks the “price reduced” notifications have really ramped up.”
Yep, I’ve seen those too!
The reduced prices are the delayed result of the pandemic moratorium on repos. Deadbeat buys a sexitruk with a $1400 stimmie check and $50K of Powellbux. He joyrides it without making a single payment, knowing that it won’t be repo’d. Finally it’s repo’d, and the bank, still on the hook for that $50K, wants that $50K. No dealer is going to pay list for a 3-yo truck with 55000 miles on it, so it sits on the repo lot.
It’s those vehicles that are now finally being reduced and sold. The banks, probably getting more Powellbux themselves, are more willing to take the loss… only to find that nobody can afford the thing anyway.
Actually the price reduced notifications I’m getting are from dealers. I’m using Car Gurus app. My search radius covers most of the West.
The target demographic for $50K hatchbacks can’t afford them. They also can’t afford V8 Mustangs, Camaros or Dodge Challengers, which is why muscle cars are being discontinued.
“The target demographic for $50K hatchbacks can’t afford them.”
Agreed. However our neighbors recently bought a plain vanilla Subaru Impreza that cost $42k. Yikes!
A looksie on cars.com shows that you can get a basic Impreza for 24K plus tax.
https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/04541a51-2ed9-4944-9407-90effaea4718/
I did see a WRX that lists for shy of 39K.
I’ll have to ask again when they’re home. It’s not a WRX hot hatch, just an regular hatchback car. It’s never washed, just driven. They’re swamped with children, both divorced with children, and of course they had to make another two, because…
Oops, it’s a Subaru Crosstrek. They’re inside, didn’t want to bug ’em. I’ll ask when I see him outside.
This is the most expensive Crosstrek I found online. $36K. Perhaps they paid a huge markup when they bought it?
https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/88b9138e-01bd-4385-b473-769719a121f0/
It’s been raining the last couple of days, so I haven’t talked to him yet. They’re a Subaru family. He had an older WRX sedan, and blew-up the engine with his stage 2 tune firmware. He bought another engine, installed it himself, and then sold it before another baby arrived. The wife’s sister also drives a Subaru, a larger sedan style. Our next door neighbor with the 300-lb crazy daughter also drives a Subaru, a Forester SUV.
I repossessed my share of Subaru cars, but that was many years ago. I never cared for their ergonomics, the the knobs and switches had a different feel than Hondas and Toyotas. We don’t own a 4×4 or AWD car. We should probably have at least one for the exceptional winter, but so far the heated seats have made winter tolerable. Fingers crossed!
The target demographic for $50K hatchbacks can’t afford them.
I’d love a WRX, but I priced it out at approximately $38,000 for the trim I want. I think I’ll take the 5% on savings instead for the moment.
Subies blow head gaskets.
Yep, that’s right!
I had a great old Subie that pre-dated the headgasket problems. Believe that problem was mostly in the 20-aughts vintage. Wasn’t this completely resolved by 2012 or so?
The head gasket thing was due to steel shim style gaskets, and the issue isn’t exclusive to Subaru. The problem develops when water, not 50/50 antifreeze is added to the radiator. The engine block freeze plugs are steel too, so they will rust-out given water. The introduction of the turbocharger has led to many problems particularly for people who just drive their cars, not service them.
When They Tried Building Venice in Dallas | A Forgotten Urban Experiment
Bharat Arimilli
Premiered Jun 1, 2023
An empty Venice-inspired canal and an abandoned automated people mover, stuck in the middle of Dallas suburban sprawl. This is the story of Las Colinas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evFEfTcwxlk
6 minutes.
Sort of reminds me of the San Antonio Riverwalk, without the charm.
Hollywood could use Las Colinas to film movies. I’m all played out on these dystopian movies filmed in a wreck yard.
This proves once again that you cannot plan and construct a city. Geographers could have told the developer this and that no successful city was ever “planned” by developers. Look around the World–cities everywhere have something in common. They exist for a reason. Trying to recreate a Venice, Paris or Tokyo will never succeed. The idea of creating 15 minute cities is just stupid. Places like Tokyo where you can live without a car and use public transportation took hundreds of years to build. And the social, business and economic factors that resulted in Tokyo today are absolutely not present anywhere in the World today. Nowhere in America is remotely like Japan.
For a good laugh, look up California City in the desert north of L.A. This is what all “planned cities” end being in one way or another.
where you can live without a car and use public transportation
There’s a fair amount of areas like that in large cities on the East Coast, core downtowns of suburban cities, and even self-contained college towns. I lived on bike and public transport in all 3 of these for years. But you probably can’t live in a single-family house, it’s hard for a two-income family with kids, and you really do limit your life to work, apt, and grocery store.
There’s a fair amount of areas like that in large cities on the East Coast, core downtowns of suburban cities, and even self-contained college towns.
Tokyo has one of the highest population densities in the world. It is also one of the safest cities in the world. Young single women can walk at night and take the last subway trains home without fear of being a victim of crime. Also, it is common in the middle of Tokyo to have one or several convenience stores within a short walking distance and these convenience stores sell just about everything a person needs for daily life. In many you can even pay your utility bills and such at the store. Watch NHK TV for videos of life in Japan.
Contrast that to the dense and old east coast American cities. None of them are safe–you’d have to have a hole in your head to walk home alone in New York or Philadelphia at 1 AM. With the exception of New York, no city in America has a public transit system like Tokyo. But there are no bums on the trains in Japan.
My sister went to school in Bloomington, Indiana at the University of Indiana. And a friend went to school at the University of Iowa in Iowa city. Very nice college towns, but you wouldn’t want to be without a car in Iowa in the winter. College towns are great for undergraduates who live in the dorms, party and don’t have to cook their own meals. Or travel more than 1 mile away from campus.
These pie in the sky dreams of 15 minute cities are just that–pies that are based on nothing more than 1950s futurist dreams of life in the 21st Century.
15 minute cities are meant to be open air prisons, not utopias,
15 minute cities are meant to be open air prisons, not utopias,
Of course they are, that’s why they’re being pushed by the left and environmental mob. They want to control people: You don’t need a car! You don’t need to eat meat! You must work in that factory!
Rudy Giuliani puts luxury Manhattan apartment on the block for $6.5 million
https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-1182-s4lfjd/45-east-66th-street-10w-upper-east-side-new-york-ny-10065
He’s a couple of years late.
Some beautiful moulding and paneling but that kitchen and bathroom are hideous.
Yep, garish. Imagine a hangover or migraine in there.
Building built in 1907. In that era, the kitchen was designed to be small and out of the way because only servants used it. They probably couldn’t move plumbing either. Well, it’s Manhattan; few people need a full kitchen anyway. But they could have done a better job with the bathroom.
it’s Manhattan; few people need a full kitchen anyway
I can attest to that. The weirdest thing about my NYC kitchen: it didn’t have a garbage disposal.
I’m gonna guess that the drain pipes were not suited for it.
My Euro relatives think that garbage disposal units are very weird.
It was a new building when I moved in shortly before 9/11. Trump Place, 160 Riverside Blvd.
There’s quite the variety of kitchen types in NYC apartments, not just small, depended on the neighborhood. In the 50s to 70s: no dishwasher, no A/C (no until ’65-ish), no elevator, party line or public telephone in the hallway, clothes wringer that you kept your fingers far away from, tar beach.
In the fridge, mother’s AYDS diet candy (kids would sneak some, only thought of it bc someone mentioned it online the other day).
People who haven’t looked for apartments in NYC may not appreciate how much natural light from all four directions that apartment gets.
Stockton, CA police are investigation the Sikh store clerks who administered a beatdown to a darker complectioned thief, who had robbed them twice already, and threatened them during the most recent robbery.
Sikhs must be a few rungs down the ladder in the Victim Olympics since they’re getting investigated, while the vibrant who robbed them will likely walk free and collect a large settlement check.
I hope the lowlife robber wins a million dollars. He’ll end up like Rodney King:
“On August 23, 2012, King’s autopsy results were released, stating he died of accidental drowning. The combination of alcohol, cocaine, and PCP found in his system were contributing factors, as were cardiomegaly and focal myocardial fibrosis.[90] The conclusion of the report stated: “The effects of the drugs and alcohol, combined with the subject’s heart condition, probably precipitated a cardiac arrhythmia, and the subject, incapacitated in the water, was unable to save himself.””
Most of the people who win big lawsuits in these shakedowns end up dead or on the street before their time. It’s like the penniless folks that win big bucks on the lottery. People who’ve never had any money have no idea how to spend it once they hit the jackpot. And in the cases like Rodney King, Karma has a strange way of striking.
Most of the people who win big lawsuits in these shakedowns end up dead or on the street before their time.
While I don’t wish death on anyone, if they are going to throw their lives away regardless, perhaps a fentanyl OD without ruining other people’s lives first might be preferable.
I have never wished death upon anybody….and then Joe Biden came along. I’m having a hard time….
And by the way it’s not just Joe Biden, it’s everything he represents and the globalist puppet masters pulling the strings behind him. These people are straight evil.
https://www.businessinsider.com/america-lower-rents-home-prices-build-more-houses-new-zealand-2023-8?amp
Nice try business insider. Guess what? People who have worked hard to live in safe, clean neighborhoods don’t want apartment buildings in them for a variety of reasons. And yes, keeping away from the sorts of people who live in “multiunit” housing is a factor, not because of race, but because we don’t want thugs living down the block.
I did the apartment thing in SoCal decades ago, and more than a few neighbors were criminals, and I got to witness some of them doing the perp walk to a squad car with flashing lights.
‘Starter-home prices are falling in those three metros after skyrocketing in 2020 and 2021’
And that’s been the case for over a year now.
‘Brokers said they had begun to offload non-performing assets for underwater owners. Sugar Hill Capital, one of the largest multifamily owners in Northern Manhattan, faced a foreclosure filing on a $16 million mortgage in November’
They got the sugar, they just selectively walked away. Non-recourse anyone?
‘I’m beginning to think banks spin the truth like brokers in this industry’
Double- Zing, that’s a good one Jay, keep up the good work!
‘she was the only council member to oppose the resolution because she didn’t want to support the narrative that unhoused people and shelters cause problems’
This is the Mayor.
‘who lives blocks away from the shelter and owns a few short-term rental properties in the area, said there has been an increase in criminal activity in the neighbourhood, including in his backyard, which is adjacent to a walking trail leading to the shelter. He said area residents have been dealing with more home invasions, theft and assaults, and many of them have been finding human feces and contaminated needles in front of their homes and businesses. ‘It’s just been crime non-stop, like, every day it’s something new,’ he said. ‘It’s just been a total nightmare’
How much to stay in yer STR then Bob?
I saw Timmins location on the map. Holy Polar bears! It’s pretty far north from all the lakeside urban sprawl. It’s almost halfway to Hudson Bay. And they have a homeless and crime problem there?
Canada used to be considered an idyllic, if a bit cold, place to live. I mean, for Pete’s sake, just how far away from Toronto do you have to go to find a safe place to live in Ontario?
My fishing camp is up that way.
‘Rowe said Bond Homes’ financial decline could be traced back to 2020 when the federal government launched its HomeBuilder Grant. He said the company sold 12 months worth of houses within the first few months, but then material prices rose and labour shortages worsened, leading to low margins and restricted cash flow’
Dave couldn’t see that minor respiratory illness was causing a serious increase in orders and that there might be a higher price for inputs. You might try a taco cart next time Dave.
‘One homeowner whose central city property was looted after he evacuated has decided to get rid of it, knowing he’ll sell it at a loss. The property is located in the upmarket, central suburb of Parnell. But it was inundated during the January weather event – and as if that wasn’t difficult enough, it was looted by vandals’
‘City Sales real estate agent Scott Dunn is trying to sell it on behalf of the owner, who chose not to be identified. ‘If you total what he’s had to pay out every week for outgoings, plus the loss of financial gain from his business, we’re talking tens of thousands of dollars this owner is in the hole for, already,’ Dunn told Newshub. The entire bottom level needed fixing and the owner has lost patience with the drawn-out process. ‘The original timeframe for completion was about 10 weeks. I think they’re coming up 26 now,’ Dunn explained. ‘The seller can’t wait any longer so he’s going to market as is, where is.’ And it seems he’s not alone’
So just like that Scott. Yer giving it away? I don’t know what the world is coming to.
Looters in Kiwiland? That’s unpossible! I am told the islands are Heaven on Earth!
Kidding aside, it just goes to show that the WEF and its stooges are trying to destroy everything and are succeeding so far. I knew that Ardern’s replacement would probably be worse than she was.
Anyway, I’m sure they can build
open air prisons15 minute cities on the larger southern island and that they will successfully move theuseless eatersdisadvantaged citizens to happily live in them.after he evacuated
I was misled by this, thought he was a poor house dweller. Later they slip that he was a landlord. How does a landlord evacuate?
What the Hell.
Whistle-blowers testifying in Congress that Military has secret program of recovery of UFO spacecraft and non human biologics have been retrieved. Claims reverse engineering of UFO’s , etc. Whistle blower claims its been going on since the 1930’s.
Ok, so Im going to look at the actual testimony tonight.
This reeks of distraction. Pay no attention to the soaring unexplained rise in deaths, especially amongst the young. We have blurry UFO photos and whistleblowers.
☝️
non human biologics
This is hilarious. I watched the testimony. Odd that the question wasn’t “non-earthly” biologics. They are just playing theatre.
I saw a political cartoon earlier this year, which I cannot find again. It was basically four frames. In each frame a man in a daze is distracted by an object dangling from a string:
2020: A Coronavirus
2021: A Syringe
2022: A Ukrainian flag
2023: A UFO
Let me guess – same people who are telling us they can actually control the weather on earth?
Is it safe to assume the worst is over for the pandemic stricken Chinese economy, and recovery is underway?
Financial Times
Chinese trade
Chinese exports suffer worst fall since start of pandemic
Flagging trade piles pressure on Beijing to revive economic growth
An aerial photo shows cranes and shipping containers at Lianyungang port in China’s eastern Jiangsu province
Weakness in international trade is one of the main sources of pressure for policymakers in Beijing as they seek to revive growth in the world’s second-biggest economy
Thomas Hale in Shanghai and Andy Lin in Hong Kong 24 minutes ago
China’s trade slumped in July, with exports and imports falling more sharply than economists forecast, adding to concerns about growth prospects in the world’s second-biggest economy more than six months after Beijing eased pandemic restrictions.
Exports declined by 14.5 per cent year on year in dollar terms, official data showed on Tuesday, the steepest fall since February 2020 during the outset of the coronavirus pandemic. Imports tumbled 12.4 per cent, one of the worst declines in recent years.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast falls of 12.5 and 5 per cent respectively.
…
Financial Times
Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd
China’s Country Garden misses bond payments as turmoil grips property sector
Real estate crisis continues to drag on world’s second-largest economy
A picture of the Country Garden logo
Country Garden said it was experiencing ‘liquidity pressures’
Thomas Hale in Shanghai and Hudson Lockett, Cheng Leng and Kaye Wiggins in Hong Kong 18 minutes ago
Country Garden, China’s biggest private developer by sales, has missed interest payments on two international bonds as it battles to stave off a liquidity crisis that has derailed the country’s real estate sector and dragged on economic growth.
The $500mn bonds, which are due in February 2026 and August 2030, and were already trading at distressed levels, fell to 13 and 11 cents on the dollar respectively on reports of $22.5mn in missed coupon payments.
Country Garden, which had almost $200bn in liabilities as of the end of 2022, was one of a handful of private companies to survive a liquidity crunch that has ravaged the country’s real estate sector since the default of Evergrande almost two years ago.
…
Does it concern you that US stocks are dangerously overvalued?
DOW FUTURES -0.24% -84.00 35,470.00
S&P 500 FUTURES -0.31% -14.25 4,523.50
NASDAQ 100 FUTURES -0.45% -69.25 15,416.25
A ‘Black Swan’ investor warns of an epic debt bubble – and says stocks are overvalued and set to plunge
Theron Mohamed
Aug 7, 2023, 4:09 AM PDT
Mark Spitznagel. Universa Investments
– Mark Spitznagel flagged a huge credit bubble, slammed the Fed, and endorsed Warren Buffett’s advice.
– The Universa Investments boss warned stocks and debt levels are too high and will end in disaster.
– Retail investors should buy an index fund, not dump stocks for gold or trade options, he said.
The boss of a “Black Swan” fund has raised the alarm on dangerous amounts of debt, slammed the Federal Reserve for putting financial markets and the US economy at risk, and advised retail investors to protect themselves by following Warren Buffett’s simple advice.
“We are in the greatest credit bubble in human history,” Mark Spitznagel told Fortune in a recent interview. The Universa Investments boss added that we’re “living in an age of leverage, an age of credit, and it will have consequences.”
Spitznagel, whose fund specializes in hedging against extreme and unpredictable “tail risks,” was referring to ballooning amounts of household and federal debt. He predicted steeper borrowing costs would hinder economic growth, force governments to restrict their spending, and lead to central banks keeping interest rates lower then they’d like.
Universa’s founder and chief investor also panned the Fed for cutting rates to almost zero and buying excessive amounts of bonds during the COVID-19 pandemic. The central bank’s loose monetary policy may have staved off a recession, he said, but it also drove up asset prices and debt levels to dangerous highs — paving the way for a much bigger disaster down the line.
Spitznagel, the author of “Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms,” argued the Fed has created a “tinderbox” economy. He compared its strategy to firefighters putting out small wildfires too soon, leaving huge amounts of fuel for a more catastrophic fire in the future.
The Universa boss, who counts “The Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb as an advisor, also warned stock investors are too complacent today. They’re so focused on declining inflation, resilient corporate earnings, and the buzz around AI and other technologies that they’re overlooking the fact that equities are overvalued and there are major risks to markets, he told Fortune.
Spitznagel pointed to Warren Buffett’s go-to gauge of stock-market value, the so-called Buffett Indicator, as evidence that valuations are stretched. He also recommended retail investors avoid betting against the market or stocking up on haven assets like gold or US Treasuries to weather a downturn, as he views their own rash decisions such as panic-selling as a greater risk to their portfolios.
Instead, he advised them to follow Buffett’s age-old suggestion to invest in a low-cost, broad index fund like a S&P 500 tracker. Given the legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO’s endorsement, Spitznagel said, it’s “probably pretty good advice.”
…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/black-swan-spitznagel-universa-credit-bubble-stock-market-outlook-crash-2023-8
DOW FUTURES -0.55%
S&P 500 FUTURES -0.53%
NASDAQ 100 FUTURES -0.49%
Wall Street keeps booming, but not everyone’s convinced the bull market will last. Here’s 6 voices of doom and gloom on US equities.
Zahra Tayeb
Aug 4, 2023, 12:26 AM PDT
bears lake tahoe
Bears are urging caution about the bull market for equities.
Carlos Avila Gonzalez/Getty Images
– US stocks have enjoyed a breakneck rally this year, but not everyone’s so optimistic about it.
– Some think the rally is a red flag to investors, and others predict dire crashes for stocks.
– Here’s six bearish views on the sizzling rally in equities, from Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg.
US stocks have been on a roll this year thanks to the AI frenzy – but not everyone thinks it’s a good thing.
From Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg, there’s a chorus of market commentators throwing cold water on the fiery stock rally.
Equities have had a great year, with the S&P 500 notching up one of its best performances since 1927 thanks to investor excitement around artificial intelligence. The index is up almost 18% this year, while the Nasdaq is up 34% and the Dow Jones is 6% higher.
The jump in stocks also follows positive economic data – including falling inflation and robust jobs numbers. That’s given investors even more incentive to pile into equities, adding fuel to the stock rally.
While some, including Oppenheimer, have made the case for another 28% surge in stocks this year, others warn the breakneck rally should be a red flag to investors.
Here’s 6 bearish stock market calls amid the stock market’s breathless climb.
Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway CEO
Despite stocks rising, Buffett highlighted that his favorite market gauge is flashing red, suggesting that equities are overpriced and could crash.
The Buffett Indicator jumped to 171% last week, with the investing guru previously warning that traders looking to purchase stocks about the 200% mark would be “playing with fire.”
David Rosenberg, top economist
The Dow Jones’ stunning climb this year suggests a recession may be underway, according to Rosenberg. The benchmark index recently enjoyed a 13-day winning streak – the longest since 1987. But what followed in the late 1900s was a plunge in stocks five months after stocks similarly rallied as much as today.
“The giddiness was omnipresent as is the case today and the bears were laughed at … but look at how the year ended … FLAT!” said the Rosenberg Research president.
“It is very possible that the recession has started already, but nobody has noticed,” he added. “The very quarters that the recessions of 1990, 2001 and 2007 began, the narrative was ‘soft landing’ each and every time.”
…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-rally-buffett-rosenberg-kiyosaki-warn-crash-ahead-2023-8
A man delivers drinks in the Little Tokyo district of Los Angeles on July 27. The US labour market has added jobs at a steady clip in the past year despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy, raising both optimism among investors for the prospects of a soft landing and concern among analysts that the fight against inflation will continue.
Photo: AP
Opinion
Macroscope by Anthony Rowley
– Deluded investors’ hopes of a soft landing for global economy betray their irrational exuberance
– The split between the reality on the ground and the way in which it is perceived by investors and market analysts seems to be growing ever wider
– The IMF and others are warning about the continuing risk of a hard landing, yet investors are still on a stock-buying frenzy
Anthony Rowley
Published: 12:30am, 6 Aug, 2023
Updated: 12:30am, 6 Aug, 2023
Why you can trust SCMP
The distance between Wall Street in New York and Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington where the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is headquartered is less than 400km, and yet the two are poles apart right now on the issue of whether the global economy can make a soft landing.
Investors on Wall Street and those elsewhere appear eager to declare victory over inflation and rising interest rates even as the IMF and others are signalling that the worst could be yet to come on both fronts.
The decision by Fitch Ratings this week to strip the United States of its AAA sovereign credit rating might provide a wake-up call for investors as to where financial markets are heading, but as likely as not the narrative of optimism will continue to prevail until a crash comes.
The impact of monetary tightening is highly uncertain. Milton Friedman noted 50 years ago the lag between monetary policy actions and the response of inflation, and that it takes time for the full impact to be felt. So, why all rush to declare victory at this early stage?
…
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229980/deluded-investors-hopes-soft-landing-global-economy-betray-their-irrational-exuberance
You have to patiently read to the bottom of the article to discover the writer’s actual opinion. Well played:
“Listen up. The Fed is determined at all costs to avoid easing policy too soon as it did in the days of Paul Volcker, and interest rates are not going to fall any time soon, so be aware and beware.
“Debt is at high levels in corporate, household and government sectors in the US and other advanced economies, as well as in emerging markets. The pain is only just beginning as rates will stay higher for longer. If you think the worst is over, you are wrong.”
Updated Tue, Aug 8 2023 7:32 AM EDT
Dow futures slide 200 points with bank shares under pressure from Moody’s downgrade: Live updates
Brian Evans
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), July 26, 2023.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Stock futures retreated Tuesday as a decline in bank shares dampened investor sentiment.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked lower by 221 points, or 0.6%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.7% each.
Bank shares fell broadly after Moody’s downgraded the credit rating on several banks, including M&T Bank and Pinnacle Financial. The credit agency also placed Bank of N.Y. Mellon and State Street on review for a downgrade.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase traded about 1% lower in the premarket. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), which tracks a group of smaller banks, dipped more than 2%.
Earnings season continued. UPS
shares dropped 5% after the delivery giant reported weaker-than-expected revenue for the second quarter. The company also lowered its full-year revenue outlook. Educational tech company Chegg popped more than 23% after reporting second-quarter revenue of $183 million, beating analysts’ estimate of $177 million, per Refinitiv.
The corporate earnings season has so far been better-than-expected. Roughly 86% of S&P 500 stocks have reported quarterly results, and nearly 80% of them have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, according to FactSet.
“The good news is that the earnings trough/recession is likely coming to an end, with earnings growth expected to accelerate over the coming quarters,” said Dylan Kremer, co-chief investment officer at Certuity. “Looking ahead, earnings projections seem a bit lofty to us relative to revenue growth estimates, particularly starting in Q1/24.”
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
My wife and I decided to start using a Realtor to up the anti from just going to open houses in soCal. First viewing cancelled since the listing agent had already 16 offers on a home that had just listed. We know that was an exaggeration. Homes are sitting longer, but there are so few of them. Buyers are losing interest, but there’s always buyers in every market. That keeps the myth alive, just. Inventory is back to 2004 levels, which peaked at the same time as the 2006 crash. Prices bottomed in 2012, but inventory continued its steady decline and never recovered. While a lack of new builds is sometimes blamed for the dearth of supply, there is something else at play. The wealth build up has paralyzed the market as sellers refuse to realize gains. This is very typical of behavior in financial markets. The pressure cooker continues to build, and that increases the risk of a crash.
While a lack of new builds is sometimes blamed for the dearth of supply, there is something else at play. The wealth build up has paralyzed the market as sellers refuse to realize gains.
Sellers only realize gains when they sell. What happens if there aren’t enough buyers? If you’re talking about small, exclusive and high value markets like Beverly Hills, then the market is small and there are always enough rich people who can afford to buy. But in the Greater Los Angeles area, you have a million homes that are stucco tract homes, in dangerous neighborhood, lousy schools and lots of people living below the poverty level. And these houses were sold for $12,000 in 1953. Right now the values are hanging around a million.
Sellers who think that there are loads of buyers ready to buy their POS house are going to be very disapointed.