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The One-Way Bet On Property Is Now Waning As The Myth That Prices Will Keep Rising Has Been Broken

A report from the San Antonio Report in Texas. “Almost two years after announcing that Frost Bank would offer home loans again, that new department is 90 people strong and has just begun rolling out three mortgage products in San Antonio. Notably, that includes what the bank calls its ‘Progress’ mortgage, which offers qualified lower-income customers the opportunity to finance 100% of the cost of their home, doesn’t require private mortgage insurance and covers up to $4,000 in closing costs. ‘One of the primary reasons we started to offer mortgage loans again was because we knew there was a gap in products for lower-income folks,’ said Bobby Berman, group executive vice president of research and strategy. The San Antonio Board of Realtors reported a 6% decline in home sales compared to 2022 in its July report, and a median price that dipped 2% year over year. Homes spent an average of 57 days on the market, a 104% increase from the previous year.”

Community Impact in Texas. “While homes in cities across the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan statistical area have been hit with high interest rates in recent months, data from the Austin Board of Realtors shows that the market is continuing to stabilize. Median home prices across the metro is down 10% for an average of $462,000. In Travis County, year over year the median home price was down 9.2% to $545,000. In Williamson County, year over year, the median home price was down 11.7% to $428,350. In Hays County, year over year, the median home price was down 10.5% to $405,243.”

Sarasota Magazine in Florida. “Summer is traditionally ‘low season’ around here, even when it comes to the real estate market. ‘Two years ago, investors could come in and buy and sell faster, but higher interest rates are slowing that down,’ says Daniel Jittu, owner of 27 State Realty in Sarasota. ‘You’re also seeing subpar houses being overpriced. People can’t afford to renovate but are still seeking top dollar.'”

KTVU in California. “The Bay Area saw another drop in home prices last month, as mortgage rates continued to soar. In the Bay Area, San Francisco saw the biggest drop in the median price of homes, dipping more than 14% to $1,460,000 in July. It fell 8.5% from the previous month. Napa County also saw a significant year-to-year drop of about 13%. But compared to the previous month, prices were actually up almost 10%. The median home price in that county was $927,500 in July, up from $843,750 the previous month. Alameda County saw the steepest decline in sales year-over-year with a 19% drop. The median home price there last month stood at $1,260,000.”

The Real Deal. “Veritas Investments, a prominent multifamily landlord in San Francisco, is seeing red flag indicators on two loans tied to a portfolio in Southern California. San Francisco-based Veritas is not making enough income from 11 of its apartment complexes in Los Angeles County to meet its monthly debt payments, as rising rates have ballooned debt costs, according to Morningstar data. Since interest rates have shot up since last June, many commercial real estate firms that used floating-rate loans to buy properties can’t raise net income fast enough to meet their bigger debt payments. In January, the landlord defaulted on $1 billion in loans tied to 95 rent-controlled properties in San Francisco. Currently, the firm is awaiting the results of a debt auction for loans, backed by a total 2,452 units in two portfolios.”

The Post and Courier in South Carolina. “An online bankruptcy auction this week could offer a glimpse at what’s to come for aging timeshare developments along the South Carolina coast. The bidding on the dual-tower oceanfront Yachtsman Resort, which is straddling the half-century mark, starts Monday and runs through Wednesday. The minimum opening offer has been set at $4.4 million for the Myrtle Beach property. The 11-story vacation getaway, with 160 condominiums along Ocean Boulevard near 14th Avenue North, fell victim to the same type of owner apathy and abandonment that took down the tiny Sand Castle South timeshare property on the Grand Strand a few years ago. ‘Not enough people paying,’ said bankruptcy attorney Rick Mendoza. ‘There were over 7,200 owners of record,’ Mendoza estimated. ‘About half of them have gone AWOL.'”

From CTV News. “According to a new survey, a third of Canadian homeowners polled said they regret their current mortgage situation, according to a survey taken by the Real Estate and Mortgage Institute of Canada (REMIC) which completed an online survey of 1,000 random Canadian homeowners. Some of its key findings show many homeowners are experiencing a form of ‘mortgage malaise’ said REMIC CEO Joe White. This is a stressful time for homeowners like Maggie White, a new homeowner who despite working a full-time job in the aerospace sector, has had to take on a second job as a cashier to afford her mortgage payments. ‘It just started increasing and increasing and by the time June came around of this year our payments were more so 2,300 a month,’ said Maggie.”

“‘It’s been very stressful, financially,’ said Maggie. The 25-year-old first-time homebuyer and her husband couldn’t handle the constant increases to their variable rate and eventually locked into a long-term fixed rate this summer. But at this rate, their mortgage payments are still overwhelming. ‘I’m hoping I won’t have to continue doing two jobs but our mortgage rate is still high as opposed to what it was last year,’ she said. ‘So I may have to continue this into the new year.'”

“‘I think it’s still very hot,’ said Clinton Wilkins, a mortgage broker in Halifax, referring to the housing market. ‘We’re still in a seller’s market here in Halifax and that is certainly not the case across the country. I can tell you that there are reports out of Ontario in Alberta and B.C. that their housing markets are down 30 to 50 percent in terms of activity.'”

The Globe and Mail. “Toronto-area homebuilders say a perfect storm of factors has more real estate developers pausing or cancelling new projects. Experts close to the industry say the confluence of rising costs and demand weakened by successive interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada has knocked the starch out of the industry. ‘We launched a condo project in late June, and that launch, we were pretty confident in the Pickering market,’ Joseph Messina of Highmark Homes said. ‘We had a lot of interest, we handed out 800 brochures and information packages. But people just aren’t signing. I don’t think it’s the interest rate; it’s the uncertainty.'”

“After years of non-stop increases in the hard costs of construction, many builders are facing the dilemma of being unable to sell homes that would make them money. BILD and real estate consultants Altus Group released figures on Wednesday that showed the GTA is seeing record lows in new home sales: July saw 1,190 new homes sold – the lowest in 10 years for that month, and 50 per cent below the 10-year average of 2,384. The whole year has trended that way: year-to-date the GTA has sold 12,189 new homes (that’s detached and condos), which is 43 per cent below the 10-year average for January to July. By comparison, by the end of July, 2021 more than 26,800 new homes had sold in the GTA. ‘Building is easy, we can all build a house,”’ said Mr. Messina. Affording it is the harder part.”

From Business Live. “More than 45,000 companies in the North West are facing ‘significant financial distress,’ according to Begbies Traynor. New research from the Manchester-headquartered insolvency group shows that 45,579 businesses in the region are in trouble as inflation and interest rates bite. The largest volume of distressed businesses are found in a trio of key economic sector hubs in the North West region: construction, real estate and support services which, together, make up 41% of the total (18,838) number of significantly distressed firms. Gary Lee, partner at Begbies Traynor, said: ‘We regularly see company directors who have a business loaded with debt that looks more vulnerable every single month as the Bank of England increases rates. The era of ‘cheap money’ is over and smart company directors are already restructuring or refinancing their operations to survive. These types of companies will only see conditions worsen as more people face paying more each month for their mortgage. They’ll have to offer something really special to entice people to spend as we head into the second half of 2023 or they face extinction.'”

Western Australia Today. “The Federal Court has ordered embattled builder Modco Residential be handed over to liquidators, just days before the company’s growing list of fed-up creditors had been due to consider a proposal by administrators. Federal Court Registrar Phillip Allaway ordered the company founded by Perth glamour couple Yusuf Khan and his wife Cynthia Lu be wound up on Tuesday, opposing an eleventh-hour bid by Modco’s lawyers to halt the move. The pair will now begin their investigations into the company, which has debts in the order of $5 million according to a report filed with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission this week.”

“The company pinned its woes on the overheated construction market and issues with indemnity insurance, refuting media headlines on allegations the company was not paying its bills. But as its customer base rapidly grew, its construction times ballooned, leaving behind a trail of broken promises and dozens of distressed homeowners, at least four of whom took their battle to the State Administrative Tribunal.”

From Bloomberg. “A Hong Kong businessman whose wife was arrested in Vietnam in 2022 has emerged as the latest desperate seller in the city’s increasingly turbulent property market. Mr Eric Chu is offloading properties ranging from a hotel to luxury apartments in Hong Kong, sometimes at a significant loss, after his Vietnamese wife became embroiled in one of the most high-profile scandals in the South-east Asian nation. The couple have commercial real estate valued at about HK$8 billion (S$1.4 billion) in the city, after already selling at least HK$1 billion worth of properties in the past few months. While the sales are more likely the result of individual financial problems, the low transaction prices threaten to dampen sentiment in Hong Kong’s already weak market.”

“The couple began actively investing in Hong Kong’s property market in the mid-2000s, buying everything from houses on the Peak to skyscrapers. Now they are selling into a commercial property market that is at its worst in almost a decade. The fire sale coincides with a number of distressed properties that are on the market, including those formerly owned by beleaguered Chinese developers. China Evergrande Group’s creditors have yet to find a buyer for its Hong Kong headquarters, almost a year after seizing it. Property tycoon Chen Hongtian also had a commercial building taken by a creditor, which put it up for sale recently. Hong Kong office values have declined about 35 per cent from their peak in 2018, according to Colliers International.”

“It is not easy to sell in the luxury residential market either. The upscale sector saw transaction volume declined by 24 per cent in the second quarter from the first three months of the year, according to Savills. Sustained high interest rates, stock market turbulence and a lack of affluent mainland Chinese buyers contributed to the fall, the firm said. Savills expects distressed sales to dominate the market, with few transactions and volatile prices in the near future.”

South China Morning Post. “Two years after the bond default by one of China’s biggest real estate developers created the first shock waves, Beijing’s promise that everything is under control is becoming increasingly harder to sell to investors. Fears jumped further this summer as ailing developer China Evergrande Group then reported a combined loss of 812 billion yuan (US$112 billion) for 2021 and 2022 – a figure higher than its total earnings since it was established in 1996. The Chapter 15 petition, which referenced restructuring proceedings being carried out in Hong Kong and the Cayman Islands, also raises a multitude of questions for Beijing.”

“How can it comfort hundreds of thousands of people who are making mortgage payments for homes that have not been delivered? How can it appease worried investors who are shunning Chinese equities? How can it turn around a growing number of bearish views about China’s financial system and its economic growth? Global investors, Chinese homebuyers and economists are now holding their breath to see which domino will be the next to fall, and what tools Beijing can use to prevent its own so-called Lehman moment.”

“‘The next few weeks are crucial, as the clock is ticking for some of the major developers,’ said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Capital, who attributed the ongoing property woes to a downward spiral between confidence and sales. ‘Now the game changer is a package of policy measures, which is strong enough to turn around the market expectation and pull the housing market out of the current downward spiral.’ The one-way bet on property is now waning as the myth that China’s property prices will keep rising has been broken.”

From ABC News. “Its weapons are dispatched to all corners of the globe, from the Republic of Congo in Africa, to Venezuela in Latin America, and across Asia from Myanmar to Indonesia. But for much of the past 15 years, China has been developing a different kind of bomb, one that now has become increasingly unstable and that threatens to detonate from within. Until recently, the Middle Kingdom was considered an economic miracle with its transformation from dirt poor subsistence economy to a sophisticated global power the fastest in human history. But the speed of that change has been accompanied by the largest and most rapid buildup of debt in history that has infected every aspect of its economy and society.”

“In the past few months, the country has slid into deflation, its trading status has been derailed by a massive drop in both exports and imports, direct foreign investment has plunged and the corporate titans that once strutted the global stage are nursing massive wounds, some of them fatal. Adding to its woes, more than one in five of its youth are out of work. Local governments and ordinary citizens alike are reeling from a rapidly deflating property bubble that has left many nursing huge losses. The great fear is that the country’s toxic property crisis will infect the financial system and there are signs that already is occurring.”

“Like most financial crises, much of the problem stems from debt. But it is not just the amount of debt. It is more to do with the speed at which it has been accumulated and the way it has been spent. Much of it, however, has been accumulated since the global financial crisis, increasingly spent on ever more desperate ‘stimulus programs’ that kept growth ticking over but failed to deliver adequate returns. With each massive cash injection, the projects became ever more marginal.”

“If President Xi Jinping wanted a glimpse of his country’s economic future, he need only gaze across the East Sea towards his long-time nemesis, Japan. For much of the past 30 years, Japan has flirted with recession. But in the post-war era, immediately before it all unravelled, it was the poster child of economic dynamism, after hauling itself out of the rubble to rapidly challenge the United States for global domination. A trading and manufacturing powerhouse, its status as one of the world’s richest nations was accompanied by a property boom unlike anything the world had ever before seen.”

“At one stage in the mid- 1980s, the Imperial Palace, a 1.15 square kilometre haven of tranquillity in the middle of bustling Tokyo, was valued at more than the entire state of California. Golf club memberships could cost up to $US3 million ($F6.79m) and corporate Japan lashed out on a global expansion binge, snapping up everything from Hollywood movie businesses and office towers from New York to New Zealand. Then it all came to a crashing halt.”

“In the late 80s, the real estate bubble burst, its stock market unravelled and its banking system endured ongoing credit crunches that have led to economic stagnation ever since. That’s despite decades of quantitative easing (the first country to implement it) and ultra-low interest rates. Right now, China appears on a similar path. Like Japan, its demographics are terrible. A rapidly ageing and shrinking population, courtesy of the one child policy of decades ago, will commit it to ever-higher investment in aged care, the cost of which will be borne by an evershrinking workforce. That’s where the similarities end. Unlike democratic Japan, the country now is ruled not just by a single party but a single person determined to cling to power.”

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This Post Has 129 Comments

  1. ‘Notably, that includes what the bank calls its ‘Progress’ mortgage, which offers qualified lower-income customers the opportunity to finance 100% of the cost of their home, doesn’t require private mortgage insurance and covers up to $4,000 in closing costs. ‘One of the primary reasons we started to offer mortgage loans again was because we knew there was a gap in products for lower-income folks’

    Sound lending Bobby!

    1. They were pretty quick to list all those goodies on that Progress mortgage, but they don’t say what they want from the “qualified” borrower in return. All the website says is “call us.” I’m guessing that either the max loan amount is very very low, or the required FICO is very very high.

    2. ‘One of the primary reasons we started to offer mortgage loans again was because we knew there was a gap in products for lower-income folks’
      MY best guess for these loans is they need CRA credits and they need them bad.

  2. ‘It just started increasing and increasing and by the time June came around of this year our payments were more so 2,300 a month…It’s been very stressful, financially…I’m hoping I won’t have to continue doing two jobs but our mortgage rate is still high as opposed to what it was last year,’ she said. ‘So I may have to continue this into the new year’

    Do what you must Maggie, but remember, when you ask do you want fries with that, you still get no food!

  3. “Minor respiratory illness”

    Remember 2019 when we had a semi-functioning economy? LOLZ

    1. In other news, most flooring in Chinese skyboxes will need to be replaced due to the incessant stamping of little feet.

  5. Income taxes.
    Income taxes, inflation, and the economy.

    Russia Today — Ukraine will ‘capitulate unconditionally’ – Scott Ritter (8/24/2023):

    “The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will conclude with Kiev’s unconditional surrender, according to Scott Ritter, a former US intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector.

    The suggestion caused outrage in Kiev, with presidential aide Mikhail Podoliak branding it “ridiculous.” Such a move would amount to “deliberately choosing the defeat of democracy… and passing the war on to other generations,” he claimed.

    Ritter insisted that Moscow is “dealing with reality” when it comes to the conflict with Kiev, including “where Russian boots will be when Ukraine capitulates unconditionally.”

    “Think Tokyo Bay, September 2, 1945. That’s your future. Enjoy,” he wrote, addressing Zelensky.

    Earlier this week, the Washington Post reported that the Ukrainian campaign is showing “signs of stalling.” The newspaper warned that “the inability to demonstrate decisive success on the battlefield [by Kiev’s forces] is stoking fears that the conflict is becoming a stalemate and international support could erode.”

    According to Moscow’s estimates, Ukraine has failed to make any significant gains since the launch of its counteroffensive, but has lost more than 43,000 troops and nearly 5,000 pieces of heavy equipment. Kiev has so far claimed the capture of several villages, but these appear to be some distance from Russia’s main defensive lines.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/581761-ukraines-president-volodymyr-zelensky-speaks/

    1. Related article.

      CNBC — Ukrainian lawmaker says GOP debate comments on reducing military aid ‘concerning and upsetting’ (8/24/2023):

      “Ukrainian lawmaker Lesia Vasylenko on Thursday said some U.S. Republican presidential candidate comments over support for her country are concerning.

      “With some of the United States politicians claiming that they will reduce the support to Ukraine, well, that’s actually quite concerning, and upsetting in a way because the United States [is] the country that has been the strongest supporter of democracy and has been the baseline for democracy,” Vasylenko told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Thursday, in response to statements made during the inaugural debate of Republican presidential candidates on Wednesday.

      The U.S. has provided more than $75 billion in aid to Ukraine across humanitarian, financial and military support since Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.”

      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/24/ukrainian-lawmaker-gop-comments-on-reducing-military-aid-concerning.html

      Concerning?

      Your P.O.S. Eastern European joke of a country is the last of my concerns.

      $4 gas, 50% grocery inflation, overpriced housing. United States taxpayers are more concerned about that.

      1. How much of the $75B spent within the beltway? I bet it’s really high. Ukies probably didn’t get much except old broken military equipments.

    2. Related article.

      Mises — The Killing and Destruction Must Stop: It Is Time to End the Ukraine War (8/23/2023):

      “Earlier this month, CNN published the results of a poll that found that most Americans oppose sending more money and military aid to the Ukrainian government. A closer look reveals that Republican voters are behind the results. Around seven in ten Republicans oppose sending more support to Ukraine.

      The poll results have prompted an effort among establishment Republicans and neoconservatives to bring the party’s voters back in line. Days after CNN published the results, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell called for continued support and made an attempt to speak to what he sees as common Republican concerns.

      “People think, increasingly it appears, that we shouldn’t be doing this. Well, let me start by saying we haven’t lost a single American in this war. Most of the money that we spend related to Ukraine is actually spent in the U.S., replenishing weapons, more modern weapons.”

      Former Republican congressional staffer Steven Moore has made a similar argument. “If you’re a fiscal conservative, you know this is a great use of taxpayer dollars. And not one single American soldier has had to die.” Defending Democracy Together, founded by neoconservative Bill Kristol, recently launched Republicans for Ukraine, an ad campaign meant to pressure congressional Republicans to ignore their constituents and instead listen to the testimony of fifty handpicked “pro-Ukraine Republican voters.”

      These are new attempts to push the same basic lie we have been fed since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022: that sending money and weapons to the Ukrainian government is in our national interest. It very well may be in the interest of people in government and their friends at weapons companies. But continuing to send tax dollars and resources to the Ukrainian government is not in the interest of the American people.”

      https://mises.org/wire/killing-and-destruction-must-stop-it-time-end-ukraine-war

      Bill Kristol?

      A demon wearing a human skin suit, drenched in blood.

      1. “Most of the money that we spend related to Ukraine is actually spent in the U.S., replenishing weapons, more modern weapons.”

        Former Republican congressional staffer Steven Moore has made a similar argument. “If you’re a fiscal conservative, you know this is a great use of taxpayer dollars.”

        Ah yes, the old broken window theory of economics. A third grader knows better than this. Well, in countries with functioning education systems they do, I guess.

      2. Germans and Europeans pay a much, much. much. much higher price, yet most people with some brains and knowledge of history agree that it was time to deal with that thug state and those barbarians. They achieved their goals over history by the civilized word being in conflict with each other, instead of dealing with the barbarians, but that can’t continue for much longer.
        And like the Mongols before them, they need to be split up in many little tribes. That way they may have a chance to enter the civilized world , but through the back door and not as grotesques peasants mascaraing as masters of Europe.
        The goal in Ukraine is not to win or loose, but to wear the Russ down until they break up and dissolve. It’s just a little part of a very long process, although we must admit that many mistakes were made, e.g., aiding them in WW2, and giving them a chance to integrate after 90′. But I believe that everyone realizes now that these thugs can’t ever be trusted, and, for the first time, the west stands united against the barbarians on our eastern gates.

        1. @nori-
          Curious, what is your cursory view regarding NATO expansion into the former Soviet satellite republics?

          1. To answer you question, the Soviets had no right to have satellites( other than the right of a boot to your stomach). Those were not allies but countries held by force against their will. your question should be, what is your opinion about all those states that finally gained their independence and freedom from a thug empire than never brought anything good to those satellites other than war, famine, backwardness, darkness, poverty, and the rule of the boot.
            All these new countries admitted in the NATO would have done, and did everything in their power to join as a way of protecting themselves against the new Mongols.
            Ask the people of those countries about it, and you’ll be amaized!

          3. Soviets had no right to have satellites

            Rights? Rights? What are those? Between nations there are no “Rights”. Why in the world is the USA concerning ourselves with this region? We don’t have any economic or national security issues there. We have a much bigger problem with our borders–like they are open and millions of illegals are storming across.

            If NATO wants to do something about Russia, then that’s their business. But NATO isn’t doing anything because NATO doesn’t really exist–as Trump has said, none of the countries in NATO are spending any meaningful amount of money maintaining their own armed forces. Without the USA, NATO is literally nothing.

            My dad fought in the US Army infantry in WW II. He saw combat in Italy and France. No American GI wanted to be there and certainly none of them wanted to die there or be wounded and suffer for the rest of their lives.

            America should get the hell out of there and let the Europeans, Ukrainians and Russia work out a deal.

          4. We don’t have any economic or national security issues there.

            My RINO BIL tried to argue that the USA benefits from a weaker Russia.

          5. My RINO BIL tried to argue that the USA benefits from a weaker Russia.

            How? Be specific? Russia militarily poses no threat to the US, so making them “weaker” is a non-starter. The Russian economy produces absolutely nothing that America needs or wants. Politically? That’s none of our business. You can make the gross generalization that the countries and people in that region as well as Europe have a history of conflict and war. There has NEVER been peaceful times there. Anything that America does certainly will not change the status quo or historical violence that is bake into their DNA.

            Besides, does any American want to go there and be killed or wounded fighting a war just to “weaken Russia”. That’s the most inane thought I’ve heard in a long time. It’s funny how so many people who have no dog in the fight are willing to send young American warriors into a war because of some abstract idea.

            How can anyone justify the death of even a single American soldier who dies in the Ukraine? I have an idea–they’re accepting volunteers. So if a person really believes in “weakening” Russia, this is their perfect opportunity. But unlike Hollywood, when you get shot in the head or blown into a million pieces, you don’t get up and walk away.

          6. How? Be specific?

            It wasn’t my argument and I really didn’t care. My opinion is informed by hours of independent research rather than MSM talking points. I’d be talking past him and I just wanted to finish my wine.

      2. Lately on YouTube I’m getting ads for a smorgasbord of Ukrainian mail order brides when I tune-in to the daily spiel by Col McGregor and Peter Zeihan.

          2. It’s already difficult enough dealing with an entitled hottie. Imagine the neurosis of a war refugee mail-order bride with a fallen husband and/or killed or missing family who sold herself to another man in a spoiled rich country? No thanks!

          3. Sometimes when I’m grocery shopping I’ll discreetly compliment a slender pair of legs, e.g., “beautiful long legs,” as I’m walking past. More often than not, without looking back, I hear a quiet, “thank you.”

            ***

            “One of my theories is that men love with their eyes; women love with their ears.” —Zsa Zsa Gabor

  6. ‘One of the primary reasons we started to offer mortgage loans again was because we knew there was a gap in products for lower-income folks,’ said Bobby Berman, group executive vice president of research and strategy.

    Hey Bobby, you do know you’re setting up these low-income/low-IQ “homebuyers” for failure, right? And they’ll turn around & probably try to sue you for “predatory lending.”

    1. I think there used to be a reason why lenders didn’t approve mortgages for low-income people who couldn’t save a dime for a down payment. I can’t remember what it was. No worries, the taxpayers will guarantee the mortgages against any losses.

    2. “Hey Bobby, you do know you’re setting up these low-income/low-IQ “homebuyers” for failure, right?”

      Lacking practical skills Bobby is just feeding his family, but he is providing the fed with economic data for their beige book.

  7. A reader sent these in:

    “We’re seeing a dramatic uptick in repossessions” I had a very eye-opening conversation with Kevin Malik, CEO of RunBuggy — a nationwide vehicle transportation marketplace. Listen closely to what he says at the 0:25 mark:

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1694125748523581910

    Severe delinquency for auto loans is highest since at least 2006. Yet, the jobs market is strong. So basically, no one has any idea what’s going on.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1693620404940623940

    As property purchase in Germany is subject to 10%-13% fees and taxes anyone who bought a house here last year with 25% equity downpayment has just lost his entire investment, young buyers lost all savings 👇 Fantastic inflation hedge

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1694019180192841836

    Highest US mortgage rates in over two decades have had almost no impact on consumer spending so far👇 One of the reasons recession has not arrived despite rates hikes yet. It’s called lagging effects. Chart

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1693888798977876230

    Friendly reminder, recessions start when unemployment is extremely low and end when it’s extremely high, not the other way round

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1693866236831010857

    China stimulating its economy by building even more idle airports and vacant apartments

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1693943365551743194

    With real estate making up almost 30% of China‘s GDP it is really difficult to be bullish China at the moment 👇 Chart

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1693691447067746805

    Almost 30% of Chinese GDP dependent on real estate combined with 50 million vacant apartments is an interesting mix. Good luck.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1692423098241270261

    Who will end-up footing the QE / fiscal bonanza era bill? Whichever way you cut it, and whatever the « accounting » claims, it will have to be paid for at some point. Taxes will. Get ready. The money went up in fumes already, so it will be taxes for nothing. Not taxes for productive growth. And yes, inflation is a stealth tax.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1694264828875972958

    The UK economy has entered a significant downturn, according to August flash #PMI surveys. Barring pandemic lockdown months, this is one of the steepest contractions since the global financial crisis. The surveys signal #GDP set to fall by 0.2% in Q2 with worse likely to come.

    https://twitter.com/WilliamsonChris/status/1694269534796922956

    2023 monthly job data and housing data all revised lower today and retail earnings all abysmal this week, 5.8% Atlanta Fed GDP here we come!

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1694364968089510315

    ICYMI: What’s next for other cities? “City councils in Dallas, Philadelphia and New Orleans have passed their own restrictions on short-term rentals.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1694487032179937286

    Social media vs reality

    https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1694060955884495041

    Portland

    https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1694003250264215690

    🤦‍♂️

    https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1693777821687328909

    The government announces revisions months after they release the headlines to the news media.

    If you collectively add up all of the downward revisions, a bunch of those job disappeared. The revisions show far fewer private section jobs and more government jobs. 🤔 Why does this keep happened? I am sure there are no politics involved. 🙄

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1694414435035590948

    The average price of a used Tesla is now over $26k lower than its peak price from July 2022. That’s a 38% decline to $41,851, a new all-time low.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1694435460414681272

    1. “Severe delinquency for auto loans is highest since at least 2006”

      $600 a week CCP Flu unemployment bonus gibs wasn’t going to last forever.

    2. “The average price of a used Tesla is now over $26k lower than its peak price from July 2022. That’s a 38% decline to $41,851, a new all-time low”

      Nothing says “I’m an idiot lemming” like a Tesla owner these days. Hard not to laugh and jeer.

        1. In the last bubble the BMW 3-series was the badge of the $30K millionaire in my parts. Feels like Elon has that market this time.

          1. +1 for the 30K millionaire reference.

            Brings back memories of the Dirty Scottsdale website circa 2007.

        2. They’re also some of the bigger a$$hole drivers around, IME.

          Almost got creamed by one this morning. He almost creamed the person he passed too swerving back into that lane to avoid orange cones and a landscape maintenance crew. This was on a road, not a highway.

    3. “Severe delinquency for auto loans is highest since at least 2006. Yet, the jobs market is strong. So basically, no one has any idea what’s going on.”

      Lots of low to mid wage jobs not keeping up with inflation and high costs. That’s what’s going on.

  8. In the Bay Area, San Francisco saw the biggest drop in the median price of homes, dipping more than 14% to $1,460,000 in July.

    Is that a lot?

    1. When the bureaucrats responsible for this arrive in Hell, they deserve to be haunted by the screams of the hundreds of children they burned alive, for all of eternity.

        1. And no sirens to warn the residents of the approaching danger, because they didn’t want people to panic.

          The worst part of this is that no one will be held accountable. Not whoever decided no sirens, or no water, or whoever ordered the evacuation routes blocked. No one.

          1. The worst part of this is that no one will be held accountable. Not whoever decided no sirens, or no water, or whoever ordered the evacuation routes blocked. No one.

            I don’t think so this time–there are too eyewitnesses and too many dead bodies. They won’t be able to unperson all of the people who died. Too many records, family members, friends and acquaintances know the identities of those killed.

            And from what I saw on local TV, the residents of Hawaii are more than enraged and angry. Don’t expect those Hawaiians to take this lying down.

          2. I don’t think so this time–there are too eyewitnesses and too many dead bodies.

            I hope you are right.

        2. 15 Year old died hugging his dog. Family carries his body to police station.

          This is one occasion that the family of this child and dog should be awarded a billion dollars and witness all of the negligent government officials frog marched off to prison for life. All of the rest of the victims should also receive equal justice.

          The fact that they are actually trying to hide and suppress the magnitude of this disaster speaks to the true magnitude of the number of lives lost.

      2. The globalists want the land, not the people living on it.

        The real story here is, were the local firefighters ordered to leave the scenes where the fire originated. And who exactly knew about the request from firefighters to use a siphon to collect water to fight the growing fire? In other words, did someone decide to just let the fire burn uncontrolled?

  11. many years ago we’d go to time share “presentations” ,for fun , at the beach…..it got old real quick , and almost everyone else there ,always bought in……and the glitzy prize stuff ,we’d chuck before we got home ….it’s a huge rip-off ,don’t see how or why anyone would fall for it …though it’s worthwhile to note , that the timeshare projects are almost always empty ,less then 10% full,at any time , no one seems to use what they paid for, if you want to go to a private vacation, guess you could rent one of those ,though they usually aren’t in the nice setting ,like they claim….

    1. Wait, they still do time shares?? That stuff was a scam in the early 80’s when I remember them pushing it. Everyone knew that stuff was scam city.

      I guess everyone forgot and they suckered a new generation in

  12. Re: the ABC article. Strange to read such frank talk from the MSM. Of course the problem is they always tell you this stuff after the fact. Their puppet masters at the WEF (or whatever) won’t let them diss one of the WEF’s favorites, like Pooh bear (or the global everything bubble) until everyone and his uncle already knows the fork has been firmly stuck in. Then they get the green light to pile on, to try to salvage their vanished credibility.

    “Until recently, the Middle Kingdom was considered an economic miracle with its transformation from dirt poor subsistence economy to a sophisticated global power the fastest in human history.”

    ‘was considered’ translates to “the narrative we were told to sell to you sheep last week.”

    “If President Xi Jinping wanted a glimpse of his country’s economic future, he need only gaze across the East Sea towards his long-time nemesis, Japan.”

    Straw poll – if you had to live in either China or Japan…

    1. What Japan did was keep zombie companies around. That’s what the US is doing now. IMO this ‘China is the next Japan’ is inaccurate. Japanese people were/are industrious high producers. Chinese for the most part sleep on rags and only have jobs due to our offshoring, which is going away fast.

      1. “IMO this ‘China is the next Japan’ is inaccurate. Japanese people were/are industrious high producers. Chinese for the most part sleep on rags and only have jobs due to our offshoring, which is going away fast.”

        Overall I agree, and I think the Japan-bashing for the last 30 years has been overdone. That said, I also suspect a good bit of the Japanese miracle likewise came from our giving away so many of our industries to them.

        In “Rising Sun” Michael Crichton guessed that the next American industry Japan would wipe out was the media. If only he’d been right on that one.

    3. Pontificating on the rise and decline of China has been Peter Zeihan’s stock in trade for the past 10 years. Short version: Britain took something like 7 generations to industrialize, inventing everything along the way, fighting wars the entire time. China was able to piggyback on all that ready-made tech and industrialize in ONE generation, borrowing lots of money to do it. No wonder their GDP grew like gangbusters.

      But guess what, a society gets to do that ONCE. Now that China has caught up, they can’t expect those growth rates anymore. And one generation isn’t enough time for the population to adjust. It’s coming back to bite them now.

      1. I’ve long thought that was one more reason the Japan bubble burst. It’s easier to catch up in industries the US stupidly gives away (steel, shipbuilding, cars, consumer electronics, etc) than to drive major new advances in them or create new ones.

  13. Forget houses, cars and college degrees; this is how real money is made: “Barbie” is officially the highest-grossing movie of the year!

    1. And if that doesn’t say it all I don’t know what does. Seriously, we need a societal collapse. It’s just embarrassing.

      1. There has been low-key pent-up demand for a Barbie movie since about 1960, so no surprise there. Every Mommy took every daughter to see it.

        I played with Barbie when I was a kid, but it was the original early 1960s dolls, when she was Teen Fashion Model and occasional Candy Striper. Barbie didn’t take on a career until the 80s. Even then I never believed the Career Barbies. Doctor Barbie would never have said “Math class is tough.”

        1. When I got my first Benjamin air rifle as a lad, the first set of targets I used to zero in the peep sights were my sisters’ barbie collection. The outraged shrieks are still reverberating off the Cosmos, as far as I can tell.

          4. I think Ben knows the IP addresses, so he knows who’s been changing screen names to what. Is Mr. Banker back? That would be great.

          5. I think Ben knows the IP addresses

            I thought that as well.

            Is Mr. Banker back? That would be great.

            Indeed! 👋

  18. Is the Fed holding off on further rate hikes, despite inflation persisting above 2 percent, a bad economic signal?

    1. Yahoo
      Yahoo Finance
      Nasdaq drops 1% as Fed warns rate cuts aren’t coming soon: Stock market news today
      Josh Schafer
      Thu, August 24, 2023 at 10:19 AM PDT·2 min read
      In this article:

      Stocks reversed lower on Thursday as another blowout quarterly earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA) couldn’t overcome new comments from the Federal Reserve suggesting interest rates will need to remain elevated for a long period of time to bring inflation down.

      Near noon ET on Thursday the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.2% and the S&P 500 fell 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial slipped about 0.5%, or 166 points.

      In an interview with Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger on Thursday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said it is “extremely likely” the central bank will need to hold interest rates high to bring down inflation.

      “I think that it’s going to take some time to really be sure that we are seeing the sustained realignment of demand and supply that is needed in order to bring inflation back on a path that will get back to 2% [in] a reasonable amount of time,” Collins said in an interview from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming.

      “I think it’s extremely likely that we will need to hold [interest rates at current levels] for a substantial amount of time,” Collins added, “but exactly where the peak is I would not signal right at this point. We may be near [a peak], but we may need to increase a little bit further.

      Investors will be closely watching a speech from Fed Chair Jay Powell on Friday morning for additional signals on the future path of policy.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-drops-1-as-fed-warns-rate-cuts-arent-coming-soon-stock-market-news-today-162311699.html

      1. Fed Presidents like Collins have the distasteful job of telegraphing what Big Jay plans to say. That’s why the market is responding.

      2. sustained realignment of demand and supply that is needed

        This is a blatant lie. It will take collapse of the debt ponzi.

    1. Wall Street is declaring victory too early — the US is still headed for a recession
      A Bull’s eye with a downward red arrow and flames reflecting from it
      Tyler Le/Insider
      William Edwards
      Aug 22, 2023, 1:26 AM AKDT

      There’s a saying in markets that being early is being wrong. Given that maxim, it’s fair to say that over the past two years pessimistic economists and market analysts have been wrong.

      Bearish forecasters began to warn of a recession and corresponding stock-market selloff as early as April 2022. Take, for example, an October 2022 Reuters poll in which 65% of the economists it surveyed said a recession would arrive in the following 12 months. Things were supposed to get ugly, and soon.

      Fast-forward to today and the sun is still shining on the US economy. Unemployment is below 4%, inflation is sliding, consumers are still spending, and the S&P 500 rallied as much as 20% this year before cooling off recently. And GDP is projected to grow by 1.9% in this third quarter, economists surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed said. Hardly recession material.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-still-headed-for-recession-stock-market-crash-2023-8

    2. Yahoo Finance
      Professor behind recession indicator with a perfect track record says it remains ‘way too early’ to call off a US economic downturn
      Josh Schafer
      Wed, August 23, 2023 at 2:30 AM PDT·5 min read
      In this article:

      Stronger-than-expected economic data has forced some on Wall Street to push back, or even remove, calls for a recession once widely considered a sure thing.

      But one recession indicator is still flashing a code red signal on the US economy: the Treasury yield curve.

      The inverted yield curve indicator, which occurs when the yield on three-month Treasury bills exceeds the yield on 10-year notes, is a perfect 8-for-8 in preceding every recession since World War II.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/professor-behind-recession-indicator-with-a-perfect-track-record-says-it-remains-way-too-early-to-call-off-a-us-economic-downturn-093049502.html

    3. U.S. Markets
      Analysis: US Treasury yield curve shifts could be set-up for Jackson Hole unwind
      By Davide Barbuscia and Carolina Mandl
      August 24, 2023 11:29 AM AKDT
      Updated 36 min ago
      An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building’s facade in Washington
      FILE PHOTO-An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building’s facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

      NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) – Recent shifts in the U.S. Treasury yield curve may indicate that market optimism around the economy could wane, with some investors looking at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at an economic symposium on Friday as a potential trigger for a correction or rapid unwind in positions.

      The yield curve comparing two-year with 10-year yields has been inverted on a continued basis for over a year, a reliable sign of a looming recession, but it has steepened in recent weeks because 10-year yields have been rising while shorter-dated ones have remained flat.

      The so-called “bear steepening” suggests that the market expects high interest rates to no longer hurt the economy, with investors extending their horizon for how long the Fed will maintain its restrictive policy stance.

      The move has coincided with rising market expectations for a so-called soft landing for the economy – a scenario in which the Fed curbs inflation without causing a recession.

      In line with that trend, hedge funds’ bearish bets on long-term U.S. Treasuries have built up over several weeks, with net short positions in 10-year U.S. Treasuries futures at their highest levels since the beginning of July, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data from last week. That has led to the risk of an unwind, some market participants say.
      …
      https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-treasury-yield-curve-shifts-could-be-set-up-jackson-hole-unwind-2023-08-24/

    4. DOW 30 -1.08%
      S&P 500 -1.35%
      NASDAQ 100 -2.19%

      The 2023 stock market rally is over as the Fed isn’t easing anytime soon and a hard landing of the economy is inevitable, JPMorgan’s chief stock strategist says
      Jennifer Sor
      Aug 24, 2023, 11:26 AM AKDT
      Worried trader
      The resilience of the US economy has only postponed the coming recession, JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said.
      AP/Richard Drew

      – The rally in the S&P 500 is capped through the rest of the year, JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos said.

      – That’s because there are a litany of negative factors heading into 2024 that will weigh on equities.

      – The strength of the US economy has only postponed a coming recession, not averted one, he added.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-rally-recession-prediction-us-economy-sp500-jpmorgan-2023-8

    5. Bonds
      Treasury yields rise Thursday as investors await Jackson Hole meeting
      Published Thu, Aug 24 2023 5:02 AM EDT
      Updated Thu, Aug 24 2023 4:20 PM EDT
      Pia Singh
      Sam Meredith

      U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Thursday as investors await signals on monetary policy from central bankers at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting.

      The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed 4 basis points at 4.241%, after hitting a 16-year high on Monday. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 2 basis points to 4.304%. At the shorter end of the curve, yields were slightly higher.

      Yields move inversely to prices.

      The recent surge in 10-year yields to their highest level since November 2007 came as investors grappled with a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy and the possibility that inflation sticks around, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates higher for longer.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/24/treasury-yields-in-focus-as-investors-await-jackson-hole-meeting.html

  20. “I’m hoping I won’t have to continue doing two jobs but our mortgage rate is still high as opposed to what it was last year,’ she said. ‘So I may have to continue this into the new year…”

    “…and the year after that, and the year after that…”

    1. I recall that Canada bounced back quickly from the previous crash, and that low interest rates were the key. This time there is no magic bullet to fix it. If they pivot there will be a lot more inflation. Makes me think of the meme where a sweating guy agonizes over which button to press.

      1. Eventually they’re going to get Mises’ choice: let the chips fall, or let the currency die. They’ll choose A, because they know what B looks like (Germany in the 1920s) and don’t want it.

        But here’s the gag, folks – by that point, A will be as bad as B.

  21. From Barron’s
    Mortgage Rates Hit 7.23%, the Highest Since 2001

    Give me an eight, Give me an eight, Give me 8%.

    Popcorn futures on the upswing.

    1. And as someone said yesterday, if this 3% inflation target talk gains any traction, that 8 magically becomes a 9.

  22. The looming crisis that’s going to crush homeowners from coast to coast
    A comic strip of a house inside of a burning house unbothered
    Tyler Le/Insider
    Taylor Dorrell
    Aug 23, 2023, 2:00 AM AKDT

    Cinda Larimer was delivering newspapers on a cool November morning in Paradise, California, when she noticed something softly float down from the sky: ash.

    “I knew that was bad,” she told me. “That’s when I called my work and said I gotta go.” She had survived four previous fires in Paradise, which sits in the foothills about 90 miles north of Sacramento, so she had her routine down: She grabbed some essentials and piled into her minivan with her boyfriend, 17-year-old godson, four cats, turtle, and dog. The Camp Fire engulfed her town that day in 2018 — 85 of her neighbors died. Larimer’s rented trailer home burned to the ground, forcing her family to convert their minivan into a new home.

    Larimer spent the past few years bouncing between a friend’s garage and motels before finally settling back into a trailer home in Paradise. She and other survivors of the Camp Fire, many of them retirees on fixed incomes, are struggling to rebuild and afford housing — many are still homeless. Those who do have homes are now faced with a jarring predicament: No one wants to insure them. As more people lose their homes to climate disasters, insurance companies are refusing to renew policies and backing out of entire states.
    …
    https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-of-home-insurance-skyrocketing-crushing-homeowners-wildfires-flooding-storms-2023-8

    1. As more people lose their homes to climate disasters

      Easily preventable disaster, but the government wants the fires, and if you die in one. well, you’re only little people anyway.

    1. +1

      I listened to the first 22 minutes of this while driving, will finish listening to the rest this evening.

      As of close of market Monday this week, I have exited several mutual fund positions going into CASH at 4.97% (Fidelity SPAXX).

      FZIPX a Russell 2000 fund was the one I most wanted to get out of. These companies with market cap rankings 501-2,500 many of them will be tanking or going under, with no Fed bailout.

        1. It’s not “cash” in the sense of physical Federal Reserve Notes woven from linen and cotton. However, SPAXX is a highly liquid cash equivalent. You can transfer funds (or dollars, or electron holes, or whatever) in and out of your checking account within a day. Sure, you have to pay taxes on any gains, but that’s still a better return than physical cash in the mattress.

          1. reverse repurchase agreements

            That just doesn’t sound cash like to me. More like everything is fine until it’s not.

          2. I’d stay away from repos. Fdlxx is Treasury-only. That’s where I keep money that I might need any day, with tbills for the rest.

    2. Too many companies operate on borrowed capital, and higher rates cut into their profit margins. Hence, it’s wise to just shut down.

      The good ‘ol days of a fed pivot back to the zero bound are behind us.

  24. ‘You’re also seeing subpar houses being overpriced. People can’t afford to renovate but are still seeking top dollar’

    Dan, during minor respiratory illness you told us multiple offers at 5 AM?

    1. “People can’t afford to renovate but are still seeking top dollar”

      Was looking at a 2015 Toyota Venza wagon, and the seller proudly announced that the engine oil was changed every 10k miles!

  25. ‘Veritas Investments, a prominent multifamily landlord in San Francisco, is seeing red flag indicators on two loans tied to a portfolio in Southern California. San Francisco-based Veritas is not making enough income from 11 of its apartment complexes in Los Angeles County to meet its monthly debt payments, as rising rates have ballooned debt costs, according to Morningstar data. Since interest rates have shot up since last June, many commercial real estate firms that used floating-rate loans to buy properties can’t raise net income fast enough to meet their bigger debt payments. In January, the landlord defaulted on $1 billion in loans tied to 95 rent-controlled properties in San Francisco. Currently, the firm is awaiting the results of a debt auction for loans, backed by a total 2,452 units in two portfolios’

    How do those 5% cap rates look now prominent multifamily landlord?

  26. ‘fell victim to the same type of owner apathy and abandonment that took down the tiny Sand Castle South timeshare property on the Grand Strand a few years ago. ‘Not enough people paying,’ said bankruptcy attorney Rick Mendoza. ‘There were over 7,200 owners of record,’ Mendoza estimated. ‘About half of them have gone AWOL’

    Just like that Rick, they gave it away.

  27. I lost a sister to a Maui fire about 30 years ago. At that time the fire dept was slow to get to the house.
    So, Im just grossed out how everything failed, and those people died. How could the police block people in cars from leaving.How could everything go wrong?
    People are paying all this money for disfunctional governments.
    People from Maui saying that FEMA and Red Cross arent doing so well on Maui.
    Just horrific in Maui, how could everything go wrong like that, definitely makes you wonder.

    1. People are paying all this money for disfunctional governments.

      I wonder how many paid anything? People often vote D in expectation of fat gibs.

    2. “People are paying all this money for disfunctional governments.”

      Curious to hear more about the building codes and the materials used in typical construction there after the emotions settle.

  29. ‘We regularly see company directors who have a business loaded with debt that looks more vulnerable every single month as the Bank of England increases rates. The era of ‘cheap money’ is over and smart company directors are already restructuring or refinancing their operations to survive. These types of companies will only see conditions worsen as more people face paying more each month for their mortgage. They’ll have to offer something really special to entice people to spend as we head into the second half of 2023 or they face extinction’

    That’s the spirit Gary, keep up the good work!

  30. Jordon Peterson ordered by Canadian Court to take reeducation class on Social Media, or his licence is threatened. The Psychiatric Board brought this about.
    Basically they don’t want this guy to have free speech.

  31. ‘The couple began actively investing in Hong Kong’s property market in the mid-2000s, buying everything from houses on the Peak to skyscrapers. Now they are selling into a commercial property market that is at its worst in almost a decade. The fire sale coincides with a number of distressed properties that are on the market, including those formerly owned by beleaguered Chinese developers. China Evergrande Group’s creditors have yet to find a buyer for its Hong Kong headquarters, almost a year after seizing it. Property tycoon Chen Hongtian also had a commercial building taken by a creditor, which put it up for sale recently. Hong Kong office values have declined about 35 per cent from their peak in 2018, according to Colliers International’

    ‘It is not easy to sell in the luxury residential market either. The upscale sector saw transaction volume declined by 24 per cent in the second quarter from the first three months of the year, according to Savills. Sustained high interest rates, stock market turbulence and a lack of affluent mainland Chinese buyers contributed to the fall, the firm said. Savills expects distressed sales to dominate the market, with few transactions and volatile prices in the near future’

    Hottest market on the planet prior to minor respiratory illness.

  32. ‘The next few weeks are crucial, as the clock is ticking for some of the major developer…who attributed the ongoing property woes to a downward spiral between confidence and sales. ‘Now the game changer is a package of policy measures, which is strong enough to turn around the market expectation and pull the housing market out of the current downward spiral’

    Two downward spiral’s in one article isn’t good Larry.

  33. ‘Like most financial crises, much of the problem stems from debt. But it is not just the amount of debt. It is more to do with the speed at which it has been accumulated and the way it has been spent. Much of it, however, has been accumulated since the global financial crisis, increasingly spent on ever more desperate ‘stimulus programs’ that kept growth ticking over but failed to deliver adequate returns. With each massive cash injection, the projects became ever more marginal’

    Long time readers will remember I used to post Chinese bubble extravagance all the time. The wind-farm that had no plugs at the end. Thousands of 5 star luxury hotel rooms being built at the same time. A few years later poo bear said ‘no more bad news.’ Chinese media clammed up. Now we only read what the globalist scum media will admit to.

  34. ‘Local governments and ordinary citizens alike are reeling from a rapidly deflating property bubble that has left many nursing huge losses’

    That could have been a good title. A bit long.

  36. ‘In Hays County, year over year, the median home price was down 10.5% to $405,243’

    Hays isn’t going to hold 400k Jerry. You screwed up.

  38. https://twitter.com/JeffClarkUS/status/1694905087083086016:

    State governments can resist federal tyranny.

    Local governments can resist federal and state tyranny.

    However, state governments cannot regulate the federal government.

    And local subdivisions of state governments, even more so, cannot regulate the federal government.

    We have reached a culmination of the unraveling of the American constitutional Republic when local subdivisions of one State’s government are allowed to tyrannize out-of-power federal officers.

    The bottom of a wise governmental pyramidal structure is then fully inverted to become the pyramid’s contorted apex. Fully twisted. Fully diabolic.

    For my entire career, I have fought for the preservation of what portions of the classic Constitution still remain. Fought against the erosion of the Constitution beginning in the Progressive Era, accelerating in the New Deal, and becoming normalized in the Post-Watergate Era.

    Against this tide, I have fought to restore the classical Constitution our Framers gave us, as wisely improved by the Reconstruction Amendments.

    And I’m not going to stop that fight now, whatever inversion, whatever destruction, and whatever anti-Republican forces come at me — or whatever such forces come at @realdonaldtrump — or whatever schemes come at my other fellow codefendants who will stand in solidarity as defenders of the Republic’s shards.

    I will use my intellect, my world-class education from pre-woke-destroyed institutions, my energy, and — most importantly — my prayer to help defend all 19 defendants against this onslaught.

    Count on it, Ms Willis and her collaborators. Count on it.

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