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Hey, This Party Feels Like It’s Going To Keep Going, And There Is No Reason For It To Stop, And Then The Music Stopped

A report from KIRO in Washington. “Inventory is up, prices are down but buyers are backing out of the Seattle housing market. The Emerald City just scored the top spot on Redfin’s list of fast-cooling real estate markets in the United States. Tacoma also made the list, ranked at number 10. Local realtor, Nelya Calev says the red-hot days of this past spring are long gone. ‘The homes don’t sell in the first 10 minutes and you’re not going to get 40 offers in the first 10 minutes,’ said Calev.”

The Denver Post. “The average price of a home in Colorado has declined by $5,665 or just shy of 1% to $580,275 between the end of June and the end of August, according to the study, which used home values from Zillow. That represented the third-largest dollar decline after California, down by $12,205, and Utah, down by $9,917. On a percentage basis, Colorado’s price decline ranks as the fifth largest after Utah, California, Arizona and Oregon.”

“‘Home prices in Colorado increased by 40% in less than two years, so I think what we are seeing now is a little bit of correction. Rising interest rates are tightening the market and I think we are switching from a seller’s market to a buyer’s one,’ Nick VinZant, a senior research analyst at the insurance research site. ‘Watching prices decline can be scary and frustrating for people who bought at the top of the market but remember, we aren’t making any more land, home prices will eventually go back up again and your home is a valuable asset,’ he said.”

12 News in Arizona. “The Phoenix housing market has changed rapidly from its peak in May. After several years of prices jumping more than 10% annually, prices are down. ‘It was wonderful, it was a great time to be alive,’ Steve Trang, a home flipper, said about the past years. 12News meet Trang at a home in West Central Phoenix. ‘When we closed on it in May, we were going to crush it,’ Trang said. ‘We were thinking (of selling it for) $325,000. A bidding war, maybe $325 or $340,000.'”

“The deal made sense in May. Prices back then were up more than 25% from the year before, and the market showed continued growth. Trang said he knows flippers that invested even more in the May housing market. ‘Hey, this party feels like it’s going to keep going, and there is no reason for it to stop,’ Trang said, ‘And then the music stopped.'”

“Trang doesn’t believe a repeat of 2007 is coming, but homes that had ready-made buyers days ago are now dropping in prices. That includes the Phoenix home Trang believed was a slam dunk just months ago. ‘We are going back on the market today,’ Trang said. ‘Right now we are going to list it for $305,000, and if we can get $300,000, we will be pretty happy.'”

The Herald Tribune. “A Florida State University economist said he believes the United States will enter a recession in the next nine months. ‘The probability of the U.S. going into a recession is 100%,’ Jerry Parrish said. ‘I do not see how we can manage a soft landing,’ he said, using the term for a Federal Reserve balancing act in raising interest rates to tame inflation without causing a recession. ‘We were too late raising interest rates,’ he continued.”

“‘If you’re thinking we’re going to have another housing crash like we did in ’08-’09 you can forget it,’ Parrish said, then listed a couple of reasons. ‘Are people going to lose their house? You bet,’ he added. ‘Are people going to lose their car – they paid premiums for over the last couple years? It’s already happening.'”

From Tech Crunch. “Digital mortgage lender Better.com continues to lay off staff, and seemingly in as callous a way as possible. ‘James’ started at Better.com in spring of 2021, thinking that he was ‘joining the darling of NYC tech.’ Having sat not far from Garg’s desk, James — like many — witnessed the CEO at ‘peak happiness and full charisma.’ When the executive wasn’t upbeat, he was ‘profusely sweating and screaming,’ James recalls. He ended up being among a group of employees who were recently laid off and who received just two weeks’ severance.”

“‘Better made terrible bets on the refi market, and it made up 90% of revenue,’ James said. ‘As soon as rates increased, everything dried up. The company was left purchasing mortgages, which is still a developing part of the business.’ The fact that people are still funding their home purchases with Better Mortgage, in James’ view, is ‘baffling.’ ‘If they’re starting the process now, it’s possible that in a couple of months’ time, the company can’t even fund the loan,’ he said.”

“‘Better had a burn rate that was well over $2 million a day, with around $500 million in cash as of August,’ James projects. ‘If the company doesn’t get new financing by the end of the year, the likelihood of it becoming insolvent, or selling itself off, is very high.'”

From Market Watch. “Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller sees a ‘hard landing’ for the U.S. economy by the end of 2023 as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening will result in a recession. According to Druckenmiller, the Fed made mistakes on the risk-reward bet they made, and the repercussions of that are ‘going to be with us for a long, long time.’ ‘We come up with this ridiculous theory of ‘transitory’, so we have 5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, we have 5 trillion in QE,’ he said. ‘And if you remember, the monetary framework in the fall of 2020, they (Fed) were no longer going to forecast. They were going to be data-dependent and wait until they see the whites of inflation’s eyes. So guess what? They saw the whites of their eyes.'”

Bisnow on Texas. “Rents have begun to stabilize in Dallas-Fort Worth and in the state’s other metros after reaching historic highs in 2021.Owners, saddled with their own heightened expenses, began charging more per unit, causing rent growth to hit nearly 19% last year, far exceeding the long-term average of 6%, ApartmentData.com President Bruce McClenny said. ‘That’s three years of average rent growth pushed through in one ear,’ he said. ‘You just can’t expect that to continue — it’s going to settle back down.'”

“The hit to Class-B occupancy is creating a negative absorption phenomenon that feels antithetical to the unbridled success of DFW’s multifamily industry. So far this year, 11,600 units have been added to the DFW market, but only 7,600 have been absorbed. Last year, the market absorbed 44,700 units but added only 25,700 units. Job growth has slowed as recession-leery bosses pull back on hiring, and fewer people may be able to afford lofty rents. Widespread negative leverage has also been reported, which could get worse as the prospect of raising rents on cash-strapped tenants becomes less tenable.”

“‘We are on a collision course with poor economic times,’ McClenny said. ‘The Fed is just absolutely hellbent to drive us into that. It’s a shame — just how they messed up going up, they’re going to mess up coming down.'”

The Orange County Register. “‘Mailbag’ gives insight into the comments I get from my readers — good, bad or in-between — and my thoughts about their feedback. California housing is unaffordable. Yes? And inflation is bad. Yes? Just don’t suggest that home prices will deflate even though depreciation creates affordability. Still, I remain Pollyanna-ish about the problem-solving potential of spirited yet civil dialogue — even if a recent email started with ‘Dear moron’ …”

“A reader writes: ‘The doom-and-gloom seems to be a continuing pattern of negativity about the housing market. Are you trying to negatively influence the housing market?’ My response: Assuming that the folks who highlight real estate risks have only sinister motivations is sadly part of the swings in homebuying psychology. This reader continued: ‘Jordan Levine, the California Association of Realtors’ chief economist, says the “sky is not falling” and predicts a modest, single-digit drop in prices for 2023. So as a consumer reading one article of gloom-and-doom and the other of a negligible drop in prices, who is one to believe?'”

“My response: Anybody thinking about a big investment like a home should seek numerous opinions before buying. As for a ‘modest single-digit drop,’ we’ve already had that! The Realtors’ California median sales price for existing single-family homes shows that August’s $839,500 was down 6.7% from the all-time high of $900,000 in May. Only in 2008, in the heat of the last market crash, did we see a bigger May-to-August price drop in records dating to 1990.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Real estate buyers are finding a few more listings to choose from after a slow start to the fall market in the Toronto area, but buyers are clashing over some properties and leaving others to languish. While the market appears balanced – with a fairly good equilibrium between supply and demand – buyers are fickle, says Patrick Rocca, broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd., who sold one property with seven bids last week and saw another one sit without a single offer.”

“In Davisville, Mr. Rocca recently listed a three-bedroom semi-detached house at 292 Forman Ave., with an asking price of $1.099-million. After seven rivals vied for the house, the property sold for $1.245-million. The seller anticipated a higher sale price but was satisfied with the outcome in the end, he says, adding that the home needs an extensive renovation. Still, prices have softened in the area. ‘This house probably would have got $1.4-million in February.'”

“Mr. Rocca says two of the offers were strong, a handful were clustered in the middle, and the rest were lowballs. ‘The lowballs are the unrealistic people,’ he says, pointing out that a seller with seven buyers competing is not likely to sell at a discount. Another property priced around the $1-million mark has been sitting, he adds, despite its desirable location on a cul-de-sac. He warns sellers that setting an asking price below market value and holding back offers until a scheduled date does not guaranteed an eye-popping sale price. ‘You may get two offers and you still may get under asking,’ he says.”

“Manu Singh, real estate agent with Right at Home Realty Inc., often works with real estate investors; many of those clients are stuck in a holding pattern as they wait for more clarity about the direction of financial markets, he says. Meanwhile, the rental market is strong, so investors who at one time contemplated selling are finding tenants for now, he adds. ‘In the condo market, my investor clients that wanted to sell – to see if they could get a decent number – well they didn’t get that number, so they are renting instead.'”

From Reuters. “A surge in borrowing costs and a likely slowdown in economic growth threaten to trigger a selloff in Britain’s housing market with consequences for personal wealth and the broader economy that could resonate for decades. The tumultuous unveiling of the country’s new economic strategy has left lenders scrambling to keep up with wild swings in the sterling funding markets that determine what mortgage rates they offer to homeowners, whose sense of wealth is intimately tied to the value of their property.”

“‘The mortgage crisis is going to be bigger than energy now,’ said Richard Murphy, professor of accounting practice at Sheffield University, warning of a drop in house prices that could leave many with debt greater than the value of their home. ‘This will end in tears.'”

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This Post Has 209 Comments

    1. I keep trying to keep up with all this crater but I can’t even read all of it. Summary — seller greed up, time on market up, # of piddley $5K reductions up, prices will eventually go down.

      Grandma-finally-died house on my block has been rented out. Flipper/fixer dude can probably pay the mortgage with the rent, but much of his money and sweat equity are probably gone.

      2. he can probably cover the payments this year. But next year when insurance and taxes are up and rents are DOWN. and things start to go wrong and need to be fixed/replaced……..yeah, he’s screwed.

        1. When these newbie mortgage slaves make a payment most of it goes to interest, barely anything to principal. Then the fed cranks up the rates, and the resale value of the shack just slips away taking your equity with it.

  2. ‘Widespread negative leverage has also been reported, which could get worse as the prospect of raising rents on cash-strapped tenants becomes less tenable’

    How do those 5% cap rates look now?

  3. I remain Pollyanna-ish about the problem-solving potential of spirited yet civil dialogue — even if a recent email started with ‘Dear moron’

    I guess K-fornians aren’t taking this well.

    ‘In the condo market, my investor clients that wanted to sell – to see if they could get a decent number – well they didn’t get that number, so they are renting instead’

    That’s right airbox gamblers, don’t give it away!

    ‘‘The mortgage crisis is going to be bigger than energy now…This will end in tears.’

    It already is Dick, (can I call you Dick?) I have several articles full of little foot stampin’ and wailing. Up for the whiniest b$tches on the planet right now.

  5. ‘Watching prices decline can be scary and frustrating for people who bought at the top of the market’

    But these were the winnahs! Nick? How the mighty have fallen. The Post has abandoned the UHS ‘committee’ with their tales of easy riches for a no name guy with his DOOM AND GLOOM! Perma bears, all of ya!

  6. ‘The deal made sense in May’

    May? You would have been fooked in April Steve.

    ‘he knows flippers that invested even more in the May housing market…We are going back on the market today….Right now we are going to list it for $305,000, and if we can get $300,000, we will be pretty happy’

    Denial
    Anger
    Bargaining <- you are here Steve.

      1. It can snow on the Fourth of July, it can snow on Halloween, and the sun goes away for most of the winter. What’s not to love?

        1. Don’t forget the mosquitos and nazis! North Idaho is still full of Aryan nation types. Look around in the supermarket, bound to see an iron cross or swastika tattoo!

      2. “Per capita, Coeur d’Alene is the most popular destination for incoming moves. Californians remain the greatest imports.”

        There have been numerous California equity locusts in the corridor between Spokane, WA and Coeur d’Alene, ID spurring incredible growth over the past 25-yrs.

  8. From a thread a couple of weeks ago:

    “‘The record low interest rates that we’ve seen over the last two and a half years have really allowed home price growth to outpace income growth,’ Andy Walden, recently told Yahoo Money. ‘In this affordability landscape it would take a combination of a 40% rise in incomes, roughly a three percentage point decline in 30-year rates, or a 30% pullback in home prices.’”

    Which two of his three conditions are impossible?

      1. I missed your post.

        But I am guessing you pointed out that the price drop outcome was the only feasible one.

    2. i am not buying avocado toast and fancy coffee from my trendy neighbourhood cafe, and i am not trading in my 3 yr old beemer for the new model.

      I should survive just fine – you neanderthal 🙂

        2. Absolute money pit, as Scotty Kilmer likes to say. Same could be said about swimming pools and 30 year old suburban houses.

    3. They might get a drop to 3.5% in rates if Powell pivots. But that won’t be for another year. Probably a 20% drop by then, especially if cash investors aren’t interested.

      2. Am I wrong in thinking a lot of “cash investors” just get financing via other sources (e.g., VC money, lines of credit)?

        3. Yes, they are just borrowing money for from some other source for a lower interest rate. They don’t care about mortgage rates. But they *do* care about appreciation, which means they won’t buy until they think there’s a bottom. Where’s that bottom going to be… my guess is where the historical inflation-appreciation line is. That was the bottom in 2012.

          1. the bottom in 2012.

            My old desk has a drawer with a false bottom.

            We’ll see if the government tries to hide the real bottom again, or if they can.

  9. “So as a consumer reading one article of gloom-and-doom and the other of a negligible drop in prices, who is one to believe?’”

    Definitely listen to the one who works for relitters. Like, definitely.

    1. Real Estate
      Mortgage Rates Hit 6.52%. Pros Predict Worst Home Sales Slump in a Decade.
      By Shaina Mishkin
      Updated Sept. 28, 2022 5:16 pm ET / Original Sept. 28, 2022 11:30 am ET
      Mortgage rates are rising swiftly this year as the Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy to combat inflation.
      Joe Raedle/Getty Images

      Just as the average rate for a 30-year mortgage loan hit 6.52%, a trade group on Wednesday said the slump in home sales next year could be the worst in a decade.

      The National Association of Realtors released data showing expectations for fewer home sales—5.19 million existing-homes in 2022—down 15.2% from last year’s 6.12 million sales. Existing–home sales in 2023 are expected to slump further, totaling 4.82 million for the year, the lowest annual count since 2012.

      The outlook represents a downward revision from the trade group’s August forecast, which called for 5.31 million existing-home sales in 2022 and 5.29 million next year.

      Full-year sale price expectations were also cut. The trade group foresees the median existing-home selling for $384,400 in 2022 and $389,200 in 2023, representing a 1.2% increase from this year to next. According to the forecast, the median sale price of an existing home is expected to decrease 1.9% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2023.

      Should the forecast come to pass, it would be the first quarter since the end of 2011, “as the housing market was coming out of the deep recession,” that the median sales price would dip on a year-over-year basis, according to Lawrence Yun, the trade group’s chief economist.

      “The simple reason for the forecast is that home prices rapidly accelerated and the much higher mortgage rates of 6.5% to 7% will drag down home sales,” Yun said. “Unlike a sales decline, this price decline forecast is a minor adjustment that will cause little harm to homeowners or the financial industry.”
      …
      https://www.barrons.com/articles/mortgage-rates-home-sales-51664379024

      1. “Just as the average rate for a 30-year mortgage loan hit 6.52%, a trade group on Wednesday said the slump in home sales next year could be the worst in a decade.“

        Probably longer than that, much longer in fact, maybe back as far as the late 1990s?

  11. witnessed the CEO at ‘peak happiness and full charisma.’ When the executive wasn’t upbeat, he was ‘profusely sweating and screaming,
    I worked for a start up Sub-prime lender in the late 1990’s had a boss just like this. He was a lot of fun and lots of good times but, the result was (probably will be) the same, layoffs and a shut down company. Even if Better survives, which I doubt, finding people in the future to work for such a unique” boss might be difficult. Just guessing, but in my opinion, in the Long term his behavior is not going to lead to a successful company.

  12. “‘If you’re thinking we’re going to have another housing crash like we did in ’08-’09 you can forget it,’ Parrish said, then listed a couple of reasons.
    Here are his 2 reasons for housing prices Not falling from the article.
    “One, people still want to move to Florida.
    I bet right about now there are a whole lot of people wishing they didn’t live in Florida, let alone wanting to move there.
    “The credit quality difference between now vs. then is phenomenal,” Parrish said. “People’s balance sheets are better, credit quality substantially better.”
    I believe People’s balance sheets are better at the upper spectrum. But I ain’t buying the Joe6Pack is doing great with a great balance crap.

    2. “People’s balance sheets are better, credit quality substantially better.”

      Credit card debt is skyrocketing, auto repos are surging, and 20 million households are behind on utility bills to the tune of about $800 per family. But aside from that they’re doing great!

      1. Peoples “balance sheets” are gonna get shoved up their rectum.

        “Balance sheets”? Who talks like that? Hey Ben… Check out my balance sheet!….. whoa you BFB! That’s one helluva balance sheet. Check out my balance sheet BFB.

          2. You’re not kidding, RPRH. Boy, do those folks bemoan and mourn the loss of BFB. So happy that you are still alive and well, regaling us here at HBB. “Your Good Friend” lives and breathes at ZH. Maybe Oxide will send you some more celebratory fetchins. All the best, BFB.
            With Respect, —Geezer

          1. It must have finally sunk in now that it’s happening in real-time and I’m salivating over the coming crash. 🙂

        2. 1% increase in 30 year = 10 % equity decrease that’s 40% right now. 3% to 7% dang and it’s probably going higher !! look out below !!

          3. A 33% wipes out a 50% gain.

            “Prepandemic”? It’s just another point in time and has nothing to do with nothing. No need to lash your reins to the hitching post like that.

          7. urgency

            I’ve been waiting 17 years to buy a house. My husband, 10y my senior, has been waiting longer.

          9. Life circumstances and market opportunities don’t always align.

            Agreed. Which is why I decided to bite the bullet a year and a half ago, even as a long-time reader here. Not ideal, but I’m very happy with the decision

          10. I’m very happy

            You have something that the “I’m gonna get rich by buying a house with money I don’t have” crowd can only imagine.

    3. “…Soaring mortgage hell begins to bite…”

      And we haven’t even begun to discuss new property tax bills based on [new high] reassessed values.

      Talk about hurricanes…

      1. “…Soaring mortgage hell begins to bite…”

        That was in reference to the UK, where increased rates eventually translate into much higher monthly payments for everyone with a mortgage.

        In the UK, a “fixed rate” means your rate is fixed for 3-4 years. Unless rates come back down quickly, a lot of UK debtors are going to be wiped out.

  16. “A reader writes: ‘The doom-and-gloom seems to be a continuing pattern of negativity about the housing market. Are you trying to negatively influence the housing market?’ My response: Assuming that the folks who highlight real estate risks have only sinister motivations is sadly part of the swings in homebuying psychology. This reader continued: ‘Jordan Levine, the California Association of Realtors’ chief economist, says the “sky is not falling” and predicts a modest, single-digit drop in prices for 2023. So as a consumer reading one article of gloom-and-doom and the other of a negligible drop in prices, who is one to believe?’”

    It’s all Ben Jones fault… he talked the market right into collapse. Him and that big fat bastard.

    1. yeah even the article admits it’s not housing, it’s the endless over the top immigration policies. (huh, almost like the whole western world is committing suicide at once)

  19. A reader sent these in:

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    Seems like housing industry is waking up to harsh reality that home prices can fall even if supply doesn’t rise.

    https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1575114679290335232

    Lance Lambert

    We’ve gone from Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) to Fear Of Buying At Top (FOBAT)

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1575282953596305410

    This is the UK Government’s 40-yr bond. This was close to 100 in Dec last year and now sitting with it at 25 🔥 Bonds are “safe”.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1575118508387487750

    FYI the Fed just barely started tightening. S&P in red. Buckle up. Call your Moms 🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1575135814912073728

    Good Ol’ Corporate Media 😂 🤡 Never blames the Fed.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1575214564211163136

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Pending home sales miss to downside amidst evaporation of bidding wars @Redfin and home builder sentiment that’s likely going need a longer dateline next time @EvercoreISI runs this graph.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1575132435813175297

    Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller on the Federal Reserve policy: “And who really lost? Poor people in the United States ravaged by inflation, the middle class, and my guess is the U.S. economy for years to come…” The TRUTH.

    https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1575152418895044610

    Fun fact – those in power are old as f*ck and they don’t care about inflation because it won’t affect them in the long term.

    https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1575304452466163714

    Subprime, Clinton did this too

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1575196987573428224

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    “Used car dealer DriveTime Automotive Group Inc. has paused the sale of over $350 million of bonds backed by subprime auto loans, after debt yields jumped earlier this week.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1575205606889500672

    Bank of England pivoting and returning to QE.

    Brits will now simultaneously face:
    – higher inflation;
    – a recession; and
    – greater inequality

    … they won’t stop until they break something, and that something is most likely your economic stability.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1575116140522651650

    So UK is tightening monetary policy with 10% inflation, but loosening fiscal policy. And now buying bonds? Words cannot describe this degree of policy incoherence.

    https://twitter.com/Powellinverted/status/1575222739165585408

    Lance Lambert

    Shiller: “I think that real (inflation adjusted) home prices will likely be a lot lower in a few years, but this is not certain.”

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1575244997183799296

    🤣🤣🤣🤣 all this does is undermine confidence in institutional integrity in the UK when inflation is running at mid double digits : policies are mutually exclusive and make zero sense: cut taxes, subsidize, monetize, beg for traders FX compliance…

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1575073742065401856

    Inflation won’t fight itself globally if 2 of largest G7 CBs are engaging in YCC while pushing on fiscal pedal…this is quite alarming actually

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1575103223605575681

    Growth in rents coming down fast, another early sign of the rollover in housing. I expect this to go negative by Q1/Q2 2023.

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1575144201494224896

  21. UK Causes Canadian Mortgage Rates to Rise? Rates Surge at the Fastest Pace in 3+ Months
    Mark Mitchell – Mortgage Broker London Ontario
    Sep 29, 2022
    Canada’s mortgage rates shot upward on Tuesday, with a crisis in the United Kingdom spreading to the markets in the United States and Canada.

    As yields surged in the UK, investors in the U.S. and Canada demanded higher yields as well, with Canadian mortgage rates following soon thereafter.

    The Bank of England has since intervened in the market, restarting another round of what is essentially quantitative easing – buying up an unlimited number of gilts (or UK Bonds) in order to keep prices low. Canadian bond yields have since retreated, though mortgage rates have not followed suit.

    Links: Bond yields rise as 10-year U.S. yield hits 4%:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3NcHKmof98

    7 minutes.

  22. Under Merrick Garland, the FBI’s transformation into the DNC’s NKVD secret police has been complete – and only a single agent has honored his oath to the Constitution. That pretty much says it all.

    30 ex-FBI agents stand up to support whistleblower who exposed agency’s political bias

    https://nypost.com/2022/09/28/30-ex-fbi-agents-stand-up-to-support-whistleblower-who-exposed-agencys-political-bias/

    Thirty former FBI agents, including a retired deputy assistant director, head of counterterrorism and five SWAT team members, have spoken out publicly in support of suspended FBI whistleblower Stephen Friend.

    Their heartfelt messages, obtained exclusively by The Post, show a deep and widespread anguish about the politicization of the FBI.

    “It’s time to stop the FBI from being the enforcer of a political party’s ideology,” says Ernie Tibaldi, a retired agent from San Francisco. “We need to re-establish the FBI as the apolitical and independent law enforcement entity that it always was.”

    1. How could Detroit be a “hot market”. That would be like paying 70% of what a 10 year old car cost when it was new … oh, wait …

    1. “…the same level of affordability seen in 2015.”

      But 2015 wasn’t affordable for first time buyers who were priced-out back in the early 2000s.

          2. There isn’t much to like about new cars these days: they are more expensive than ever and many dealers are charging more than MSRP. You have to spend months on a waiting list to get the more popular ones. Many are powered by tiny engines with turbos, meaning they won’t last, and aren’t even that fast. They are chock full of gadgets which will break and be expensive to fix, and parts might be hard to come by.

          3. Is it just me, or do the new cars, especially SUVs, have a robotic look to them? The composite panels have sharp angles which remind me of those Boston Dynamics Atlas robots. For example: Sportage, RAV4, and Forester.

          5. Asian cars in particular.

            They are not stylish and they aren’t sporty. But MINI did a good job of curing me of ever wanting a European car again. That said, beware of Korean engines, KIA and Hyundai seem to have forgotten how to make an engine that doesn’t burn oil at 15K miles, which is a disgrace if you ask me.

    2. so do you buy (depreciated) used cars / toys in 2023 or 2024?

      I like to look – but can never seem to pull the trigger.

      1. 2023/2024 might be a good time to buy a low mileage used car. A lot of losers overextended themselves so there should be a deluge of repos that will bring prices way down

        1. I’ll likely do some home repairs. I don’t think that tradies will be booked up with trophy remodels.”

          My AC is original from 1989 I might look into a heat pump if my pal Joe pays for it

  27. “#BringBackMasks” is currently trending on Twitter and users are almost resoundingly pushing back against the big lie that “face masks keep you safe.”

    “#BringBackMasks is trending with the hypochondriac and virtue signalers,” a Canadian user scoffed.

    Another user posted a “certificate of achievement” image “awarded to the unvaccinated for surviving the greatest psychological fear campaign in human history.”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/09/bringbackmasks-trending-twitter-clear-people-around-world-agree-one-thing-dont-work/

    There are still people in Denver who wear a mask while driving alone.

    Mass Formation Psychosis is one hell of a drug.

      1. I can’t imagine what it must be like to be addicted to fear.

        Speaking of fear, the fine folks who run the doomsday clock haven’t been getting much press lately. You’d think that with the current state of global affairs that it would be set to two second til midnight, or something like that.

        I guess fear of nuclear war isn’t part of the Narrative yet. They are counting on Warmism to scare us into obedient servitude.

    2. Citizen! A Comrade of Proven Worth (D) has visited your job site, and determined mandatory quotas for wimyn are not being met! A Party cadre will assemble the workers on-site tomorrow for a mandatory Struggle Session, followed by Two Minutes of Hate against Orange Man Bad. Based on your abysmal social credit score, you have been selected to receive mandatory gender-affirming surgery to rectify the gender imbalance at your place of employment. Forward!

    3. Another user posted a “certificate of achievement” image “awarded to the unvaccinated for surviving the greatest psychological fear campaign in human history.”

      That’s me, baby!

  28. market but remember, we aren’t making any more land, home prices will eventually go back up again and your home is a valuable asset,’ he said.”

    In the words of Lawrence, MA former police chief….What we got here folks is a toilet-licking maggot.

      2. that was yesterday. and probably monday

        but that’s how bear markets work. lower highs and lower lows, slow grinding take everyone it can with it. Not just straight down in a line.

        The only way to win is not to play.

    1. How much you want to wager all those yapping moonbats invoking “Mussolini” couldn’t tell you who he was….

    1. It’s just best to avoid vaxxes now. Of course, unless your kids are jabbed for everything they can’t attend public school. And the current list is LONG.

  33. Just in from Crain’s New York:

    Jefferies Financial Group shrinks staff by 5%

    It’s the first of several Wall Street firms to unveil layoffs

    1. “…Jefferies Financial Group shrinks staff by 5%…”

      Just amazing what can happen if the free money spigots are turned off just a hair.

      Don’t think the MSM has quite caught on how serious current downturn is going to get.

  34. “‘If you’re thinking we’re going to have another housing crash like we did in ’08-’09 you can forget it,’ Parrish said.”

    As I keep saying to these people: You’re right. 2008 will look like the good old days.

    1. Also tired of hearing these greedheads say “I can’t get my insane sale price so I’ll just rent at an insane rate instead. Easy money.” Sure, landlording is easy, just ask anyone who’s actually done it in sane times, let alone the last two years where they couldn’t collect rent or evict nonpaying tenants. And you think that won’t make a comeback in the upcoming depression? People are going to ask – with some justification – why should only homedebtors get to be deadbeats?

      1. The whole “I’ll rent my house” makes little sense. Even if you get a good tenant (which is unlikely because the scam artists know how to find the naive newbie landlords) it wears the house out. After a few years you’ll need paint, new appliances, etc, etc. And if you get a bad tenant; katie bar the door on damages. MIss a month or two of payments (just between tenants) and bam now your house is an alligator (costing more than your payments). And the rents and prices continue to decline.

        So instead of selling now and not making as much money as you thought, you’re going to wait a few years and sell a worn out tired house in a much lower market with lots of inventory and fewer qualified buyers. Ok, that’s a bold strategy Cotton, pretty sure we all know how that’s going to work out.

  35. Who knew that trannies with astronomical rates of mental illness in our “woke” military could ever be a security risk. This is my shocked face.

    REVEALED: Johns Hopkin doctor told her trans Army officer wife to stop being a ‘coward’ and to ‘work through’ her ‘ethical issues’ to hand over medical information on senior military officers to Russians, indictment shows

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11263375/Armys-trans-officer-wife-INDICTED-trying-pass-medical-records-Russians.html

    2. “Coolio’s longtime manager, Jarez, says Coolio went to the bathroom at his friend’s house, but when he didn’t come out after a while … the friend kept calling for him, and eventually went in and found Coolio laying on the floor.”

      “It’s the ultimate in bad manners to turn blue in your friend’s bathroom.” —Keith Richards

        1. Tossup.
          I was watching Resident Alien and wondered how old Linda Hamilton is. In the search, an article said her twin sister, a nurse, died in Aug 2020 of suddenly.

  37. The Financial Times
    Markets Briefing Equities
    Global stocks and bond prices fall after gains in previous session
    Drops follow broad rally in asset prices after Bank of England’s intervention in gilt market
    The Bank of England’s intervention on Wednesday triggered a rally in UK assets which rippled into other global markets but that rally lost steam on Thursday
    Jaren Kerr in Toronto and Joshua Oliver, Chris Flood and Harriet Clarfelt in London an hour ago

    Global stocks and government bonds resumed their recent slide on Thursday after the Bank of England’s intervention to support UK government debt markets provided a brief respite during the previous session.

    Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 dropped as much as 2.7 per cent, touching its lowest level since November 2020, before recovering somewhat to a 2.3 per cent decline in afternoon trading.

    The Nasdaq Composite, which is dominated by tech groups that are regarded by investors as particularly sensitive to higher interest rates, fell 3.7 per cent.

    Investors have been growing increasingly concerned about the impact of high rates and the prospects for global growth since the US Federal Reserve and a host of other central banks raised rates last week.

    The trend paused on Wednesday when the BoE announced a £65bn bond-buying programme to calm gilt markets, which had been in turmoil since the Conservative government’s mini-Budget last week. The central bank’s intervention triggered a rally in UK assets which rippled into other global markets.

    However, the effects were dissipating by Thursday, as the prices of government bonds fell again. The yield on the UK’s 30-year gilt, which was the focus of Wednesday’s intervention, rose as much as 0.14 percentage points to 4.03 per cent, according to Tradeweb data. Yields rise when prices fall.

    In Treasury markets, the policy-sensitive two-year yield jumped 0.09 percentage points to 4.19 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year rose 0.06 percentage points to 3.77 per cent.

    Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said he was sceptical that Wednesday’s rally would “mark an end to the recent period of elevated volatility or risk-off sentiment”.

    “For a more sustained rally, investors will need to see convincing evidence that inflation is coming under control, allowing central banks to become less hawkish,” he said.
    …

  38. How’s that globalist Quisling government working out for ya, Aussies?

    Sign cost of living crisis is out of control: ‘There is still momentum’

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/inflation-continues-to-soar-as-cpi-rate-hits-68-per-cent/news-story/fddb41763599b8b614c99f60ee52e8ae

    Fresh data has revealed inflation has soared to levels not seen since the mid-1990s as Australians continue to struggle with the cost of living.

        1. I drove around there for a few hours years ago. Flat, water everywhere, basically a sh$thole. I like the people down there though, all of the west coast. And the sea view is nice.

          2. Rather fortuitous timing for all the DebtDonkeys on gulf coast florida.

            Can you imagine the millions of DebtDonkeys wishing for something like that to flatten their rapidly depreciating shacks?

  42. Finance
    Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.7%, Highest Since 2007
    Rates are more than double where they were a year ago
    Home sales have continued to drop as higher mortgage rates undercut buyer demand.
    Photo: Allison Dinner/Getty Images
    By Charley Grant
    Updated Sept. 29, 2022 1:07 pm ET

    Mortgage rates rose to their highest level in more than 15 years, a new high since the 2008-09 financial crisis that adds pressure to the already cooling U.S. housing market.

    The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.7%, according to a survey of lenders released Thursday by Freddie Mac. lt was the highest rate since July 2007 and marked the sixth week in a row of rising rates.
    …
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-rise-to-6-7-highest-since-2007-11664460015

    1. “FreeSpeech on the internet is a “weapon of war,”

      And they dare call us Fascists. Saw a headline today that said “Yes, Georgia Meloni really is a Fascist”

      1. Think I saw she’s a WEF stooge. Please tell me I’m wrong. Too many things to keep up with and not enough sleep of late.

        2. Please tell me I’m wrong

          Relax. She speaks very plainly and the people were all for what she said. If she’s a fake/plant, it won’t sit well.

          6. I hope Carl Morris, BubblevilleCA and MGSpiffy are doing well!

            Thanks. Took about a year off, starting reading again a few months ago. I’ve been working on keeping my witticisms inside my own head, it’s a challenge :-).

    1. you can short the home builders, you can short the banks with big mortgage (MBS) exposures. Although there’s been no real market for 20+ years. every time it tries to go down, they just pump it up or “save” them.

      But honestly IMO your first option is the best. There’s a time for capital preservation and this is it. Takes a long time for a housing crash to play out, we’re in inning 1, got a long way to go. Patience is the key and cash will be king.

  49. Democrat-Bolsheviks won’t have free rein to engage in fraud and criminality until the last of the conservatives have been purged from our judiciary and law enforcement agencies.

    FBI is ‘purging’ staffers with conservative viewpoints and retaliating against whistleblowers who have complained of misconduct, Republican Rep. Jim Jordan claims

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11264617/Jim-Jordan-FBI-purging-staffers-conservative-viewpoints-retaliating-against-whistleblowers.html

        1. What is the beef about source?

          The right-hand column of the publication is the equivalent of TMZ. It’s not exactly where I’d be looking for reliable geopolitical information.

  50. Russia said on Thursday that pipeline leaks emitting natural gas into the sea appear to be the result of state-sponsored terrorism.

    The European Union is investigating the cause of the leaks in the Gazprom-led Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea and has said it suspects sabotage.

    “This looks like some kind of terrorist act, possibly at the state level,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to TASS news. “This is an extremely dangerous situation that requires urgent investigation,” he stressed.

    A day before, Peskov dismissed claims that Moscow was behind the damage to the pipelines and described those allegations as “predictably stupid.” He questioned why Russia would sabotage its own pipeline system, which would lead to the loss of significant amounts of “expensive” gas.

    A report from CNN alleged that European security officials had observed Russian navy support ships and submarines not far from the sites of the leaks. When asked to comment on the CNN report, Peskov said there had been a much larger NATO presence in the area.

    Russia has also said the leaks off the coasts of Denmark and Sweden occurred in territory that is “fully under the control” of U.S. intelligence agencies.
    Explosions

    The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were not supplying gas to Europe when the leaks were first detected on Monday but still had gas in them. Russia had halted deliveries via Nord Stream 1, saying Western sanctions had hampered operations. Nord Stream 2 had not started commercial operations.

    Earlier this week, researchers with seismology agencies in Denmark and Sweden found that the damage to the pipelines was most likely caused by explosions and ruled out the possibility of natural cases.

    A senior U.S. official told reporters Wednesday that the United States was not involved in the damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines and said “the jury is still out” on what happened. “We were absolutely not involved,” the official said in response to a question.

    “Many of our partners, I think, have determined or believe it is sabotage,” the official remarked. “I’m just—I’m not at the point where I can tell you one way or the other.”

    Danish Defense Minister Morten Bodskov met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to discuss the damage to the pipelines on Wednesday. Both said it was an act of sabotage, although they did not publicly say who could be responsible.

    “There is reason to be concerned about the security situation in the Baltic Sea region,” Bodskov said in a statement to media outlets. “Russia has a significant military presence in the Baltic Sea region, and we expect them to continue their saber rattling.”

    No nation-state or group has claimed responsibility.

    Meanwhile, Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council think tank, told the BBC that such an attack by Russia would make no sense.

    “They always point finger at Russia but I think since it’s the Russian property it would be not very logical for Russia to inflict damage upon it,” he told the broadcaster. “There are other ways to make European lives harder. They can simply stop the gas deliveries without damaging the infrastructure.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/russia-says-nord-stream-pipeline-damage-likely-terrorist-act_4763571.html

    1. Asia-Pacific markets mostly lower after S&P 500 closes at new year-low
      Abigail Ng
      This is CNBC’s live blog covering Asia-Pacific markets.
      A pedestrian looks at Japanese companies’ share prices of the Tokyo Stock Exchange displayed on an electronic board in Tokyo on April 30, 2021.
      Yuki Iwamura | AFP | Getty Images

      Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mostly lower on Friday, the last day of the third quarter, following another sell-off on Wall Street overnight. China’s official factory activity data unexpectedly expanded in August, beating estimates.

      In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slipped 1.83% to 25,937.21, and the Topix index fell 1.76% to 1,835.94. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.23% to 6,474.20.

      The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was 0.27% higher in the final hour of trade, while the Hang Seng Tech index dropped 1.05%. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite shed 0.55% to 3,024.39, and the Shenzhen Component was 1.29% lower at 10,778.61.

      The Kospi in South Korea declined 0.71% to 2,155.49 and the Kosdaq shed 0.36% to 672.65. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.11%.

      U.S. stocks tumbled in Thursday’s session, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh low for the year and also reaching a new closing low. The index dropped 2.1% to end the session at 3,640.47. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 458.13 points, or 1.54%, to 29,225.61. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 2.84% to 10,737.51.

      “Geopolitical and inflation risks are not subsiding, and risk assets are taking the strain as expectations of lower growth and higher funding costs continue to permeate,” analysts at ANZ Research wrote in a Friday note.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/30/asia-markets-wall-street-china-pmi-stocks-currencies.html

    2. Markets
      China Shares Plunge to Lowest Valuation on Record in Hong Kong
      – Hang Seng China Enterprises has slumped to lowest since GFC
      – Unless China relaxes Covid Zero, hard to see catalysts

      By Lianting Tu and
      Charlotte Yang
      September 29, 2022 at 9:16 PM PDT

      Grim milestones keep piling up for Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong.
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/china-shares-plunge-to-lowest-valuation-on-record-in-hong-kong#xj4y7vzkg

    3. The Financial Times
      US Treasury bonds
      UK government bond tumult ripples into US and European markets
      Heavy sell-off in gilts described as a case of ‘the tail definitely wagging the dog this week’
      The Bank of England this week announced emergency bond purchases to halt the freefall in UK government debt
      Tommy Stubbington in London and Kate Duguid in New York 4 hours ago

      Turmoil in UK government debt has sent shockwaves through global markets, sparking big swings in US and European bonds.

      “Bond markets are always highly correlated, but we’ve definitely seen the tail wagging the dog this week,” said Dickie Hodges, head of unconstrained fixed income at Nomura Asset Management. “The moves in gilts were so big that they filtered through to European and US bond markets.”

      The 10-year US Treasury, the benchmark in the world’s biggest and most important debt market, on Wednesday posted its biggest one-day rally since March 2020 after the Bank of England announced emergency bond purchases to halt the freefall in UK government debt. Those gains followed heavy losses for global bond markets since last Friday as the heavy sell-off in gilts spread around the world.

      Analysts and investors say some of the moves in Treasuries or German Bunds have been caused by leveraged investors — who use debt to amp up their gains and losses — dumping easily tradeable assets elsewhere in order to cover their losses in the UK. But the similar — albeit much more muted — moves in the US and Europe are also down to the shared challenges facing most big economies of how to tame runaway inflation without choking off economic growth.

      “Even though the UK is a basket case of its own making, the fact is the same pressures are being acutely felt elsewhere,” said Richard McGuire, a rates strategist at Rabobank. “Investors see the government’s ill-conceived experiment, and wonder if it’s a sign of things to come in other countries.”

      Following chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s £45bn package of tax cuts and energy subsidies last Friday, traders swiftly priced in a steeper rise in UK interest rates, betting that the BoE would need to tighten monetary policy faster in order to offset the inflationary effects of the fiscal stimulus. Eurozone markets also added expectations for an extra European Central Bank rate increase over the coming year “in sympathy,” said McGuire. He added that his clients, who invest in eurozone sovereign debt, currently have the UK at the top of their list of questions.

      The global alignment of monetary policy has also meant that when one central bank changes direction, like when the BoE this week decided to delay its quantitative tightening process, it raises questions about whether other central banks will follow suit.

      “In the US market we’re a bunch of single-celled monkeys. You see the Bank of England ending quantitative tightening suddenly and you think that maybe the US will end quantitative tightening too,” said Edward Al-Hussainy, a senior interest rate strategist at Columbia Threadneedle.

      The aftershocks of the UK crisis have been particularly evident in the US because of the volatile state of markets more broadly, said analysts and investors. The US and UK, among central banks globally, are raising interest rates at a rapid rate, which has created unusual price swings, even in markets that are typically ultra-stable, like Treasury bonds. Two- and 10-year Treasury notes are both on track to record their biggest sell-off on record this year.

      A significant reaction in markets is to be expected, given the historic shift in monetary policy this year. But those moves have also been exacerbated as the uncertainty about the future direction of monetary policy have pushed more cautious investors on to the sidelines. With fewer investors in the market, price swings become even more dramatic, a phenomenon some investors have described as a “volatility vortex.”

      “In higher volatility moments, everything becomes correlated,” said John Briggs, head of US rates strategy at NatWest Markets.

      “Even though what is going on in the UK, objectively, shouldn’t have any impact on the Fed outlook or inflation, the fact is that when markets move to that degree, no one is going to be immune. Volatility begets volatility,” said Briggs.
      …

  56. Markets
    DOW -1.54%
    S&P 500 -2.11%
    NASDAQ -2.84%

    Fear & Greed Index
    Think mortgage rates are high now? Homebuyers in the 1980s were paying 19%
    By Anna Bahney, CNN Business
    Published 2:43 PM EDT, Thu September 29, 2022
    MIAMI, FLORIDA – JUNE 21: A ‘for sale’ sign hangs in front of a home on June 21, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    Think mortgage rates are high now? Connie Strait remembers when she was starting her career in real estate in the early 1980s and buyers were contending with rates three times higher.

    Strait recalled one couple who were actually relieved when they locked in a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 19% in September 1981. The couple had told her they were hoping to close on their new home before rates moved any higher.

    “They were so delighted to be closing at 19%,” said Strait, who now works at William Raveis Real Estate in Danbury, Connecticut. “They said, ‘We made it in just under the wire, next week it is going to 20%!’”
    …
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/homes/1980s-mortgage-rates-home-affordability/index.html

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