It Was A Strategy That Worked For Quite A While, And At Some Point The Music Stops And You Can’t Get Refinancing
A report from Business Insider. “Return-to-office mandates are forcing some people to choose between selling their home at a loss or losing their job,’ Redfin said. Real estate agent Shauna Pendleton in Boise, Idaho, has clients selling their home after purchasing it just a year ago near the housing market peak because they have to move back to Seattle for in-person work. ‘My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they’ll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They’ll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home,’ Pendleton said.”
Houston Public Media in Texas. “In what has become a recurring theme, Houston home sales were down in August, the 17th consecutive month of declining sales. Experts say Houston is still firmly a buyer’s market, the opposite of what it was a few years ago during the pandemic, when homes often had multiple offers and sold within days for thousands of dollars above the asking price. ‘People are getting a little bit lower than list price right now, or at list price when not even a year ago, people were bidding $20,000, $30,000, $50,000 over asking price,’ Houston Association of Realtors Chair-elect Thomas Mouton said.”
From Fox 4 Now. “There have been a lot of changes in Florida’s housing market, with much of it kick starting after the pandemic. Angie Cloutier, realtor with Cre8ive Realty, calls the market more reasonable as in prices, bidding and inventory. According to Zillow, there are 500 single-family homes on the market in Cape Coral. ‘Houses are staying on the market much longer,’ Cloutier said. ‘People are being more picky.’ She says in 2022, buyers were overbidding and paying all cash, creating a confusing situation for some realtors. ‘You know, I don’t understand it,’ Cloutier said. ‘To me, when everybody’s frothing at the bit to buy something is when you really shouldn’t.'”
The Baltimore Sun in Maryland. “To James Weiskerger, co-owner of the W Home Group of Next Step Realty in Timonium, the housing market is feeling less competitive overall. Weiskerger said he’s seeing fewer bids on homes and occasional price reductions. The seller still has the upper hand, he said, but the market is becoming more balanced. ‘You can just sense the entire market as a whole is cooling down,’ Weiskerger said. ‘There’s not as many shoppers out there.’ Weiskerger said he feels confident about his business, describing it as a ‘smaller, boutique brokerage,’ but his agents are closing about 25% fewer sales than they were a year ago. This is consistent with the Bright MLS data, and Weiskerger said the slowdown in sales could be problematic for other real estate professionals. Bright MLS reported that sales closed on 2,903 homes in August, 22.1% fewer than a year earlier.”
The Bellingham Herald in Washington. “Whatcom County’s median home sale price has fluctuated throughout 2023. The median home sale price reached an extreme high of $682,000 on Jan. 2, the highest price so far this year, according to Redfin. In August, Whatcom’s median home sale price fluctuated, rising to $624,000 on August 14, then dropping to $586,475 on August 28. In August, Bellingham’s median sale price was $643,000 according to Windermere Real Estate, a 2,4% decrease compared with July and a 5.4% decrease compared with August of last year.”
The Philadelphia Tribune in Pennsylvania. “After a high-profile legislator announced an investigation this week into a real estate company’s alleged use of predatory practices on vulnerable Philadelphia homeowners, some of them talked to The Tribune and detailed their experience. Sen. Bob Casey is pushing a probe of MV Realty for allegedly using a high-pressure sales pitch that locks in future transactions and possibly drains thousands in home equity. Timothy Calhoun saw an ad for MV Realty while on his phone in January 2022. He called the number and an agent came to his home on North 23rd Street and offered him $640 for the representation rights to sell his home in the next four to five years.”
“After attempting to undo the mortgage he never wanted on his house, Calhoun was ready to testify. ‘I would’ve spoke in front of Satan about the property I worked hard for and paid off,’ Calhoun said. ‘I don’t feel like my house is paid for anymore. I feel like my house in somebody else’s house. This thing with MV Realty has grown into a real monster.'”
Bloomberg on New York. “The developer of a penthouse on Manhattan’s Billionaires’ Row once listed for a record $250 million appears to have slashed the price 22% after failing to sell the condo in its first year on the market. The roughly 17,500 square foot (1,626 square meter) condo atop Extell Development’s Central Park Tower on W. 57th St. is now priced at $195 million on listing brokerage Serhant’s website.”
The Real Deal on California. “Sunbelt Rentals has paid $5 million for land in East San Jose once slated to contain some of the 800 homes proposed by a local developer accused of real estate fraud. The South Carolina-based tool rental company bought 2.4 acres between 2101 and 2149 Alum Rock Avenue, the San Jose Mercury News reported. The seller, presumably the lender of a $6.25 million unpaid mortgage tied to the property, was undisclosed. Other reports pegged the lender as Parkview Financial, based in Los Angeles. It’s not clear what Sunbelt Rentals wants to do with the property, approved for 796 homes and 28,700 square feet of shops and restaurants, according to Loopnet. It has been assessed at nearly $7 million.”
“The foreclosed land at Alum Rock and Jose Figueres avenues was owned by an affiliate controlled by Sanjeev Acharya, which bought it in 2020 for $9 million. That year, Acharya and his SiliconSage Builders were accused by the Securities & Exchange Commission of defrauding hundreds of investors out of $119 million. The Sunnyvale-based company allegedly raised funds from 250 investors, many in the South Asian American community, by falsely claiming it was profitable and promising exorbitant returns.”
From KPIX. “Homeowners insurance has become a hot button issue at the State Capitol as millions of California residents struggle to find affordable plans after some of the major insurers decided to stop selling new policies in the state. Livermore resident Sheri Ramsell told KPIX she was dropped by her insurance company after filing a water damage claim. She hasn’t been able to find a new company to insure her home. ‘The float on the back of the toilet stuck. I didn’t even know that could happen. And it flooded everything in here,’ she said. Last week, she got a letter from Mercury. ‘It says notice of non-renewal,’ Ramsell read.”
“Ramsell said at first she was shocked when she read the letter. Then she got mad. She said she felt it was unfair to drop her after one claim when she’d paid premiums to Mercury for 17 years. ‘We didn’t realize how bad it was going to be. We thought, ‘Ok, well, now we’ve got to find a new insurance company. But then when we started calling, we realized, ‘Uh-oh, we’re in trouble,’ she said. Ramsell says she’s done with California and is already packing up to move to Nevada to be closer to her daughter. ‘This was kind of the last straw that made us want to go,’ she said. But until she can get the house sold, she still has to find new insurance. ‘We can’t not have it, so we’ll just keep calling until we find somebody,’ Ramsell said.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Real estate industry watchers are growing increasingly nervous about the number of power-of-sale properties popping up on multiple listing services. ‘I get tons of phone calls from people in these positions. I spoke with an [owner] yesterday; they paid $1.2-million for a house and it’s down $300,000 in value,’ said Daniel Foch, director of economic research with RARE Real Estate Inc. The same owners have seen their monthly interest payments go from $2,000 to $6,000. Mr. Foch says many distressed owners are facing the prospect of losing their homes to lenders enforcing their power of sale in a foreclosure. ‘I think it’s just a ticking clock: Most of the people I speak with on the phone I ask what’s their number and they’ll say like, ‘We can do this for another 6 months,’ he said. ‘It’s really sad stuff to see. I’ve never felt as emotionally damaged by this industry.'”
“‘A lot of what you’re seeing is overzealous flippers; people who bought into the BRRRR method,’ said Jason Geall, a former private lender. The Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat model boomed in the low-interest rate environment pre-2022. ‘It’s amazing that was a strategy that worked for quite a while, and at some point the music stops and you can’t get refinancing.’ There are dozens of examples of properties such as those Mr. Geall describes: condos that were leased until recently and now sit empty; triplexes that are half-rented with a history of increasingly large asking-rents for remaining units before the power of sale; homes in mid-renovation that have had a half-dozen ever-falling price changes; finished renovations that once had high-end furniture staging but now feature just an exterior photo.”
“One example is 86 Northdale Rd. in Toronto, which sold for $2.125-million in 2018. It underwent an extensive renovation, after which the new owners tried to sell it for $3.188-million in 2020. Now under power of sale, the lender recently listed it for $2.399-million. Cam Cassidy, a realtor with Right at Home Realty who advises investors in the Oshawa area, says that while not all flippers are flopping and not all investors are cash-flow negative he recently spoke to a firefighter who approached him for advice on how to deleverage his 11-home rental portfolio.”
“‘That was one of those eye-opening moments. Like, wow, how did you get 11 properties?’ said Mr. Cassidy. He often sees rookie investors who bought properties where rents were unable to cover the costs of the loans when rates were low, let alone now. ‘They would keep their properties if they were cash-flow neutral. The firefighter, he’s not firesale-ing everything: he’s trying to hang on and not admit ‘I messed up.’”
7 News in Australia. “Karen Scarlett had been eagerly waiting to move into her dream home that’s been under construction with Adelaide-based builder, Qattro, for three years. Now she faces the idea of giving it up all together to buy another home, which could cost her $150,000 more than the first house, or continue renting. ‘When you’re on a fixed income (like) I’ve retired now, it’s not easy to find that money,’ her husband Colin Scarlett said. The couple paid a $70,000 deposit before the COVID-19 pandemic for a home in Underdale that was meant to be completed within 12 months. Three years on, the home is three-quarters finished, and they’ve paid thousands extra on rent which they had not budgeted for when Colin retired.”
“Developer Mark Johnson said his company selected Qattro for the housing development in Underdale because of the company’s good history of similar builds. The Underdale development was meant to be his last project to financially prepare him for retirement. Johnson said his company was now ‘just hanging on’ by a small thread because he will continue paying high-interest rates until the homes are complete. ‘It’s quite dire. I feel a bit like (I’m) in quicksand. I’m just not sure, I’m just trying to hang on,’ he said.”
“Subcontractor Karim Hrynkiw has been working on Qattro’s Dock One development in Port Adelaide. His concerns about the builder’s finances grew over the past few months because they would at times be late for payments. ‘When we contact them about the bills we’ve let go, no messages, no replies, nothing whatsoever, so we’ve been put out of pocket $60,000-80,000,’ Hrynkiw said.”
Vietnam Investment Review. “Tran Ha, investor of a project with nearly 200 condotel units in the central city of Danang, revealed that despite launching many preferential policies and great discounts of up to 25-40 per cent, fewer than 20 units have been sold this year. ‘Liquidity is so slow that we are forced to tighten our budget, temporarily stop selling, and accepting inventory to reduce operating, brokerage, and advertising costs,’ Ha said. Most resort real estate segments across the country are suffering, pushing inventory to alarming numbers over the past half-decade.”
“According to property consultancy DKRA’s latest report, the cumulative condotel inventory as of July had jumped to more than 42,000 units, and condotel consumption was 78 per cent lower than the same period of last year. Meanwhile, the total inventory of coastal town house properties, including beach villas, increased to approximately 30,000 products. The market’s difficulties are also stifling individual investors. Nguyen Hoang, a private businessman who owns two condotels on Phu Quoc for lease, said that the revenues from the condotels this year has not been enough to cover expenses.”
“‘There are fewer tenants, while pressure from debt of more than $83,000 means I was forced to sell one apartment at a loss of 10 per cent compared to what I had paid. But no buyers have been found over the past six months,’ Hoang said.”
From Reuters. “As cash-strapped developer Country Garden battles to stave off default, its sprawling $100 billion development in Malaysia has come under scrutiny from creditors even as the Southeast Asian nation dangles financial incentives to lure investments. Billed as a paradise with turtles and white-sand beaches, Country Garden’s Forest City development in the state of Johor next to Singapore aims to house 700,000 people across 7,000 acres on four reclaimed islands upon completion in 2035.”
“Seven years in, Country Garden has invested 20 billion ringgit ($4.3 billion) in the project, Forest City said, a far cry from the initial $100 billion plan. Today, with development still in progress, it houses fewer than 10,000 people – about 1% of its target. Forest City has become emblematic of the risks Country Garden and some of its Chinese peers took on with their debt-fuelled building boom not just at home but also in offshore markets.”
“Forest City said around 55,000 people visit its sales gallery each month and two hotels with 600 rooms combined, including a five-star golf resort, ‘are always fully booked.’ What Reuters saw on a recent trip appeared quite different. Empty palm tree-lined roads led to a mall where a karaoke lounge, a birds-nest museum and a herbal medicine shop were among the outlets shuttered. The four-storey mall had only around a dozen shops open, with cleaners outnumbering shoppers. One of the hotels was largely empty and the rooftop bar that sat atop it remained closed even though its owners told Reuters in February it would open in March.”
“Several property agents said there was scant demand for units as potential buyers were worried about its low occupancy rate, environmental concerns and a lack of economic development. ‘People don’t want to buy into a block where there are just a few residents,’ said one agent, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue. Another agent said his client was looking to sell a unit after three years as he was unhappy with the pace of development.”
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‘That was one of those eye-opening moments. Like, wow, how did you get 11 properties?’ said Mr. Cassidy’
Sound lending Cam!
‘He often sees rookie investors who bought properties where rents were unable to cover the costs of the loans when rates were low, let alone now’ ‘They would keep their properties if they were cash-flow neutral. The firefighter, he’s not firesale-ing everything: he’s trying to hang on and not admit ‘I messed up’
Don’t listen to Cam firefighter. Hold yer ground!!
“A lot of what you’re seeing is overzealous flippers; people who bought into the BRRRR method,’ said Jason Geall, a former private lender.”
First of all, get your terminology are not flippers. Flippers rehab and then sell. These are wannabe investors operating on slim to zero margins convinced that rents and home prices only go up. I talked to an acquaintance last week who turned BRRRR into his religion over the last 4 years. He was freaking out. This was the same dude that scoffed at me when I warned him several years back.
“homes in mid-renovation that have had a half-dozen ever-falling price changes”
Another big tell that the BRRRR strategy is dead. I’m seeing this all the time now. Homes that are listed in mid-renovation. Take a look at your local listings; bet you’ll find a few. What does that tell ya? The music has stopped. It’s a desperation move.
I didn’t understand this part: “finished renovations that once had high-end furniture staging but now feature just an exterior photo”
When I see only an exterior photo, my first thought is that the insides are trashed. If the renovations are finished, why not include a couple interior pix, even without staging?
On a side tangent, to me another yellow flag is when the main picture shows an nice interior room instead of the exterior. My first thought is that they renovated one room, the exterior is unattractive, and the rest of the interior is trash. In the age of digital pix and the internet, I need to see at least 7-8 photos.
‘My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they’ll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They’ll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home’
Well it was cheaper than renting sellers.
A prudent sane person ((or couple) would have rented first. But during the asinine period insanity ruled.
A prudent sane person ((or couple) would have rented first. But during the asinine period insanity ruled.
I moved in 2022 and rented, but it was HARD to find a rental during this time. Everything was being bought with the money bazookas, and scumbag parasites were stealing application fees left and right.
At one point, I needed to file a complaint with my bank to get my money refunded.
Bloomberg
Businessweek
The Big Take
How Sam Bankman-Fried’s Elite Parents Enabled His Crypto Empire
Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried, both renowned Stanford scholars, opened doors for their son and provided a halo effect for his company.
By Max Chafkin and Hannah Miller
September 13, 2023 at 9:01 PM PDT
Around the Bankman and Fried house, Larry David was a family favorite. So the parents were understandably excited when they got the email from their son Sam. He wrote that his company, FTX, would be airing a commercial during the 2022 Super Bowl and that David was starring in it.
The curmudgeonly comedian would play a series of skeptics throughout history, basically Neolithic and Elizabethan versions of his character from HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm. Someone would present an invention—the wheel, the lightbulb, the Walkman and, finally, FTX—and David would dismiss each one in quick succession. The ad would warn viewers that if they didn’t invest in crypto, they were missing out on an historic opportunity to get rich. The tag line: “Don’t be like Larry.”
…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-09-14/sam-bankman-fried-s-parents-did-they-enable-ftx-s-rise?embedded-checkout=true
SBF was the #2 donor to the Democrat Party. George Soros is #1.
The prosecution rests.
IIRC, he also donated to some RINOs.
This didn’t age well. Of course, anyone who “invests” based on touts on Superbowl ads deserves to get their fool head handed to them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWMnbJJpeZc
Larry was right
How much more are you paying for basic life necessities now versus before January 2021?
I just paid $56 to fill up the car and $103 (company card) to fill up the van yesterday.
Food is up anywhere from 40-75%.
This country is in a cost of living CRISIS, mostly because of government overreach in alleged response to a phony virus.
My auto insurance is going up 10% every 6 months. No accidents or tickets in 15 years. I shop around and this is the best I can get.
Food is up anywhere from 40-75%
This^^^
When they say food prices have only gone up ~18% since the scamdemic began, my blood boils. It is obvious to everyone that it’s a bald faced lie. And yet, I’ll bet 40+% will still vote D next year.
Remember what happened 15 years ago.
They are right PRICES may have only gone up 18% but the packages are smaller.
https://www.mouseprint.org/
Per item, food is so cheap that it’s easy for grocery stores to raise prices and still be manageable. For example, a pound of frozen broccoli has risen from $1.29 to $1.79 in the past two years. That’s only fitty cents, so it doesn’t seem like a lot, but it’s a 39% increase.
I disagree. The final bill is up 39%, and nobody has the choice as to whether or not they want to eat.
I disagree. The final bill is up 39%, and nobody has the choice as to whether or not they want to eat.
Substitution is real and you only pay the full price if you insist on always buying the same basket of goods.
Half the baskets I see at the grocery store are filled with packaged and processed junk anyway.
‘The float in the back of the toilet stuck’?….Naw, that’s nothing but a clever story,of some sort, , don’t blame the Insurance Co. …Toilets are made to take that …there’s a drain back there…..I recently had 30K gallons went through a toilet like that, ….no damage but a very high water bill….when it comes to telling stuff ,you need to be level with the truth, how’s the old saying…”Tell the truth ,though you don’t need to blab all of it out , just say I don’t recall”…..
Could there be a crack in the overflow pipe? But even then, that would just drain the tank faster, not overflow over the top.
wow! who is still paying this amount of rent for mediocre rental units in Gotham. Is this really inflation – or are folks just renting what they can? Why wouldnt they rent in another borough and take the subway/train to work
The median rent in Manhattan in August was $4,370 a month, unchanged from the record high in July, according to data from brokerage firm Douglas Elliman and the appraisal and research firm Miller Samuel. Average rents also held their record, at $5,552 a month.
Brokers said supply is low due to a lack of new rental buildings, while buyers who would normally be looking to purchase apartments are choosing to rent for now given high interest rates. August is historically the busiest month for rentals in Manhattan, as families prepare for back-to-school.
Still, there are signs that Manhattan’s sky-high rents may be peaking. The number of new leases fell 14% in August, marking the second straight month of declines. The drop suggests that while asking rents for new leases are high, renters are balking at the prices. Brokers say many landlords are also choosing to renew their existing leases at slightly higher rents rather than aim for bigger increases with new leases.
In short, Manhattan renters may have reached their price limit.
Wait until the hundreds of thousands of illegals get in front of the line for Section 8 and scoop up all the rental units.
Wait until the hundreds of thousands of illegals get in front of the line for Section 8 and scoop up all the rental units.
yes and, wait for it….
The displaced people will still vote Blue no matter who.
NPR — Fentanyl mixed with cocaine or meth is driving the ‘4th wave’ of the overdose crisis (9/14/2023):
“Since 2010, overdoses involving both stimulants and fentanyl have increased 50-fold, and now account for 32% of U.S. overdoses in 2021 and nearly 35,000 deaths, according to a study published Thursday in the scientific journal Addiction.
“We’re now seeing that the use of fentanyl together with stimulants is rapidly becoming the dominant force in the U.S. overdose crisis,” says Joseph Friedman, the lead author of the study and a researcher at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine. “Fentanyl has ushered in a polysubstance overdose crisis, meaning that people are mixing fentanyl with other drugs, like stimulants, but also countless other synthetic substances.”
The study authors call the rise in these polysubstance overdoses a “fourth” wave in the opioid crisis. The first was characterized by the rise in prescription opioids starting in the early 2000s, the second by heroin’s rise starting around 2010 and the third, fentanyl circa 2013.”
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/09/14/1199396794/fentanyl-mixed-with-cocaine-or-meth-is-driving-the-4th-wave-of-the-overdose-cris
De-criminalize all of that and what you get is Portland, and Denver.
Tranq will be next, and narcan doesn’t work on that.
From the Dumver Post:
This is by design. The gooberment people pretend to be shocked and demand that something be done. They hold “National Overdose Awareness Day ” events to show that “they care”, but it is their policies that have created this mess. I also suspect they are undercounting the homeless who die in their tents and who are quietly taken away.
De-criminalize all of that and what you get is Portland, and Denver.
People have been saying “De-criminalize” for decades since that would solve the illegal drug trade/crime problem. Way back in time when I was in school, getting busted with a joint was a big deal which had ramifications. So we’ve got decades of data where drug use crimes have become less severe, and where things that used to be illegal aren’t even a crime anymore. What are the results? Denver and Portland and … So the solution must be to make everything legal and then people will start acting rationally and in their best interest. (I learned that last phrase in college–it was taught to me by a person with a PhD).
‘De-criminalize” for decades since that would solve the illegal drug trade/crime problem’
I don’t have time to dive into this topic, but I will point out this: who is making the fentanyl? Mexican cartels. Everybody knows it. So what kind of a decriminalization plan would leave the cartels in charge of a very profitable and deadly drug that’s killing around 100,000 US citizens every year? Not to mention all the collateral crimes. They didn’t work this out in legislatures or congress, they just threw the situation wide open. And just about the time they started allowing bums to sleep and crap/shoot up right out in the open. A good idea to simultaneously let people run wild and give them billions every year to do so AND they can get any hard drug they want from the cartels? This is just a purposeful sh$tshow.
who is making the fentanyl? Mexican cartels. Everybody knows it. So what kind of a decriminalization plan would leave the cartels in charge of a very profitable and deadly drug that’s killing around 100,000 US citizens every year?
Who produces an illicit drug (or alcohol) isn’t really relevant to the problem of drug or alcohol addiction and its negative effect on society. For example, when booze was legal there were problems caused by alcohol consumption. When it was made illegal, it was produced illegally and the same problems with its use continued. When it was made legal again, business expanded the production of alcohol and legal production of alcohol buried the illegal producers.
If you make fentanyl use and production legal here, then lots of companies will start producing and make lots more than is being produced by illegal cartels. They will put the cartels out of business which is good, but having the consumption of fentanyl through the roof will make its abuse problems even worse.
If you make something legal and there is a demand for the product, it will sell. Make it better and cheaper and legal, it will sell even better. No matter what anyone does with laws about drug or alcohol production and use, people will ALWAYS use and ABUSE them.
Without subsidy, those people will fail rather quickly.
If you make fentanyl use and production legal here
Isn’t that already true? Sure, you’ll need a prescription.
you’ll need a prescription.
I meant freely available without a prescription.
There are countries that don’t have much of an illegal drug problem. Countries like Indonesia, Singapore and Japan. In Singapore if they catch you trafficking you can get the death penalty or life in prison. Any illicit drug possession or use is punishable with harsh sentences.
Same goes with Japan, but the penalties are quite as bad. But even if you get caught with small amounts, you’ll do 5 years in prison, and Japanese prisons are very, very harsh. So harsh and enforced drug laws do prevent the kinds of problems we have in this country, but Japan and even Indonesia are not like America from just about any perspective.
If the goal is to break the gangs and cartels, it won’t matter is the drugs are legal. The only way is to make the drugs FREE. The gov could simply buy drugs, from the same Mexican/Chinese/South American factories if necessary, certify them fentanyl and tranq free, and distribute the drugs at safe injection/rehab sites out in the countryside. Every morning, send a drug bus downtown every day to pick up addicts (but don’t bring them back). Petty crime, homeless camps, gangs, cartels, all of it would stop nearly overnight.
Every morning, send a drug bus downtown every day to pick up addicts (but don’t bring them back). Petty crime, homeless camps, gangs, cartels, all of it would stop nearly overnight.
And farts won’t stink anymore. What parallel universe do you live in? First, who’s going to pay for all of the infrastructure to run this drug fest? Second, where are all of these junkies going to live when they aren’t shooting/snorting up? Since all of these soon to be dead pieces of work are going to be completely unable to take care of themselves, work or contribute to society, who’s going to feed them? House them? Provide toilets and toilet cleaning people for them? I certainly don’y want to pay for this idiotic debauchery,
We can see examples of your peaceful and crime free world today! Portland and Denver!
Also, who’s going to pick up all the dead bodies and the costs of cremation? All of this costs money–you sound like a liberal Democrat.
The only way is to make the drugs FREE.
Lunacy.
It is a fool’s errand to make things illegal just because they are bad for the person and society.
Heck, we could ban most food to prevent the diabetes and other health issues we get. Don’t even get me started on meat…
But then we wouldn’t live in a free society.
Where is the money for the make-drugs-free plan going to come from — basically you use those same billions of dollars that are now going to non-profits to do nothing, or to clean-ups that just rotate the problem around. Later on, there should be some savings from needing less in the way of courts and law enforcement, breaking the cartels, and possibly some indirect positives from revitalized downtowns and such. Is it lunacy? Sure. But how much worse is it than we have now?
Is it safe to assume rate hikes are over?
Financial Times
Eurozone interest rates
ECB raises interest rates to all-time high
Quarter-point increase comes despite faltering growth in the eurozone
The ECB building in Frankfurt
In a knife-edge decision, the ECB lifted its deposit rate for the 10th consecutive time to 4%
Martin Arnold in Frankfurt and Mary McDougall in London 25 minutes ago
The European Central Bank has raised interest rates to an all-time high in a bid to cool consumer prices, but the euro fell after the central bank signalled its cycle of increases was near its end.
The ECB’s knife-edge decision to lift its deposit rate for the 10th consecutive time, by 25 basis points to 4 per cent, came as officials cut their growth forecasts for the eurozone economy.
The euro fell to a three month low against the dollar after Thursday’s decision by the ECB’s governing council in Frankfurt. In mid afternoon trading the currency was down 0.5 per cent on the day at $1.0677.
…
Investors are ignoring surging energy inflation at their own peril: Morning Brief
Jared Blikre
Thu, September 14, 2023 at 3:00 AM PDT·3 min read
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-are-ignoring-surging-energy-inflation-at-their-own-peril-morning-brief-100041435.html
High energy costs will cause more rates hikes and a final blow off top for all assets including stocks. Add in China’s debt problems and EU’s recession and this will be a doozy. There will be a massive crash followed by hyperinflation as central bankers try desperately to save the system.
There will be a massive crash followed by hyperinflation as central bankers try desperately to save the system.
Since I retired, I seldom go out to eat at proper sit down restaurants so my data on prices is obsolete. I was looking at the Queen Mary website in Long Beach since I was thinking of visiting the old ship. Things have reportedly improved a lot since the City of Long Beach took over managing it. There’s a nice restaurant there and the price for a fish and chips dinner was $29. All of the steak prices were close to $50. How can you do business with these kinds of prices?
Credit card debt is up, way up.
The Wall St disconnect is at an all time high.
US commercial-property crisis deepens with office vacancy rate topping 2008 highs to hit a new record
Zahra Tayeb
Sep 14, 2023, 4:10 AM PDT
Office towers
US office vacancy rates inched above a 2008 peak of 16.3%, per Colliers. (Photo by Robert Alexander/Getty Images)
– The stress in the US commercial real-estate industry is mounting with office vacancy rates surpassing 2008 highs.
– “Vacancy has inched above the prior peak of 16.3%, seen at the height of the Global Financial Crisis, with further upward pressure expected to follow,” real-estate services firm Colliers said.
– The office sector has been slammed by high interest rates, work-from-home trends, and a credit squeeze.
…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-commercial-sector-crisis-deepens-vacancy-rate-tops-2008-highs-2023-9
10 signs the US economy may struggle in the next year
Madison Hoff and Noah Sheidlower Sep 14, 2023, 2:08 PM ET
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Torsten Sløk, a chief economist, shared at a forum his 10 “downside risks to the US economic outlook.”
Climbing delinquency rates for consumer loans is one risk.
Sløk also sees the federal student loan payment restart as another risk.
Over the past few months, economists have been noting how the economy’s progress has shattered expectations. The next year, though, may not be so smooth sailing.
Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, highlighted at the Fall 2023 Stern Economic Outlook Forum on Tuesday, hosted by the NYU Stern School of Business, some risks to the quickly improving US economy. That included the resumption of student loan payments, rising delinquency rates, and slowing economies of US trade partners.
Inflation has generally been coming down since peaking last year, in part due to 11 interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Many believed that to bring inflation down, unemployment would have to rise and stay elevated, though this has not happened so far, and economist Paul Krugman even said on Wednesday, “the war on inflation has been pretty much won — without a recession.”
But despite the current run of pretty good economic news, Sløk sees trouble ahead. By raising interest rates, the Fed “wants us to buy fewer cars. They want us to buy fewer homes, they want us to spend less money on our credit cards,” Sløk said at the forum on Tuesday. “They want companies to spend less money on capex,” or capital investments. “They want companies to hire fewer people. That’s exactly what’s happening.”
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economic-outlook-2024-risks-signs-struggle-torsten-slok-2023-9
‘Paul Krugman even said on Wednesday, “the war on inflation has been pretty much won — without a recession.”‘
* CLICK *
Bloomberg
Markets
Ray Dalio Says He Doesn’t Want to Hold Bonds, Cash ‘Is Good’
Dalio Says Cash Is Good, Doesn’t Want to Own Debt, Bonds
WATCH: Dalio says he doesn’t want to own bonds and that cash is “a good investment right now.”Source: Bloomberg
By Bloomberg News
September 14, 2023 at 12:37 AM PDT
Bridgewater Associates LP founder Ray Dalio said he doesn’t want to own bonds and prefers cash, highlighting difficulties investors face as global central banks try to manage inflation.
“I don’t want to own debt, you know, bonds and those kinds of things,” the billionaire said Thursday at the 10th Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore, when asked to don the hat of a fresh macro investor in the current landscape. “Temporarily right now, cash I think is good.”
…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-14/ray-dalio-says-he-doesn-t-want-to-hold-bonds-cash-is-good#xj4y7vzkg
A couple of years ago he said cash is trash. Don’t listen to those greedheads. They’re likely doing the opposite of what they say.
A couple years ago cash was trash. A bank CD was paying 0.00002% interest. Now a simple Fidelity treasury fund pays 4.5+%. It’s not trash now.
Mortgage rates inch up, lingering above 7%
By Anna Bahney, CNN
Updated 1:21 PM EDT, Thu September 14, 2023
Washington, DC CNN —
US mortgage rates ticked up this week, ending a two-week streak of slight declines. Rates have remained over 7% for five consecutive weeks as inflation pressure continues to linger.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.18% in the week ending September 14, up from 7.12% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 6.02%.
“The reacceleration of inflation and strength in the economy is keeping mortgage rates elevated,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
…
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/14/homes/mortgage-rates-september-14/index.html
A key recession indicator is still flashing red after a record 212 straight trading days
Matthew Fox
Sep 14, 2023, 7:03 AM PDT
NYSE Trader
Andrew Kelly/Reuters
– The bond market is still flashing a warning signal that an economic recession is imminent.
– The 10-year and 3-month yield curve has been inverted for 212 straight trading days, a record.
– While fewer economists expect a recession, the economy is still poised to suffer from the lagged effects of the Fed’s rate hikes.
…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/recession-indicator-economic-outlook-alarm-bond-market-record-yield-curve-2023-9
Does this sound like the prelude to a soft landing?
“The 10-year and 3-month yield curve has been inverted for 212 straight trading days, a record that just surpassed the 1980 inversion and is now the longest stretch since at least 1962, according to data from Bloomberg.
The yield curve inverts when short-dated Treasurys offer a higher yield than longer-term Treasurys, a market anomaly that typically suggests a period of economic weakness is imminent.”
I’m so tired of these articles Clearly Bidenomics has rendered the inverted yield curve meaningless.
Twin Cities Homepage
11 hours ago – News
Inflation wiped out income gains for Minnesotans during the pandemic
Nick Halter
Data: U.S. Census Bureau. Map: Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios
The pay raises Minnesotans got during the pandemic were wiped out by inflation.
Driving the news: The U.S. Census Bureau released its 2022 American Community Survey results today, and the data shows that median incomes when adjusted for inflation declined in both the Twin Cities metro and Minnesota between 2019 and 2022.
…
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2023/09/14/minnesota-wage-gains-wiped-out-inflation
Financial Times
Eurozone interest rates
ECB hawks warn of December rate rise if inflation and wages stay hot
Uncertainty over how quickly price pressures will subside despite hopes eurozone has seen last tightening
Political poster demanding ‘Make Inflation Small Again’ outside ECB headquarters in Frankfurt
The European Central Bank said keeping rates at their current level ‘for a sufficiently long duration’ would make ‘a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation’ to its 2% target
Martin Arnold in Frankfurt, Henry Foy in Santiago de Compostella and Giuliana Ricozzi in Rome 4 minutes ago
Several of the European Central Bank’s more hawkish rate-setters believe interest rates could rise again in December if wages keep increasing rapidly and inflation proves stickier than hoped.
Investors widely expect the ECB’s rate rise on Thursday, which saw the deposit rate hit 4 per cent, to be its last.
But three people involved in the monetary policy meeting told the Financial Times that, if eurozone inflation were higher than forecast, the door was still open to raising rates again when the central bank updates its projections in December.
“I don’t agree that we are definitely done,” said one of the policymakers. “We would need a very negative surprise [on inflation] to hike again in October, but we might in December.” Another one said a quarter-point rise in December was “still possible — I’m not ruling it out”.
…
Economic Report
CPI shows biggest increase in U.S. inflation in 14 months
Last Updated: Sept. 13, 2023 at 9:11 a.m. ET
First Published: Sept. 13, 2023 at 8:34 a.m. ET
By Jeffry Bartash
comments
Yet Fed’s preferred core price measure shows annual rate of inflation still slowing
The cost of food isn’t rising as fast as it was last year, but prices are still high. Getty Images
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The numbers: U.S. consumer prices leaped 0.6% in August — the biggest increase in 14 months — largely because of higher oil prices. Yet inflation more broadly did not appear to show worrying signs.
If energy and food prices are set aside, so-called core inflation rose a smaller 0.3% in August, the consumer price index showed.
That was a tick above Wall Street expectations, however, and cast a negative tone over financial markets. The core rate has increased a slower 0.2% in the prior two months.
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cpi-shows-biggest-increase-in-inflation-in-14-months-efec35e1
Linked from Revolver News — 24 Years Wiped from Life Expectancy of ‘Fully Boosted’ Men, Study Shows (9/13/2023):
“Researchers have analyzed the official data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the UK government to determine the long-term effects of mRNA injections.
The study sought to weigh the balance of risk for the vaccines by establishing how long the negative side effects take to reduce over time after a person receives each dose.
However, the researchers found that the damage doesn’t lessen over time and, instead, it remains indefinitely, increasing with each shot.
The CDC All-Cause Mortality data has shown that each vaccine dose increased mortality by seven percent in the year 2022 compared to the same figures for 2021.
The data revealed that each year, every vaccinated person becomes more and more likely to die at a rate of seven percent per dose, per year.
This means that the mRNA vaccines and booster shots are a “slow-acting genetic poison,” according to the study.
https://slaynews.com/news/24-years-wiped-life-expectancy-fully-boosted-men-study/
A slow acting genetic poison? That sounds like a medical genocide.
Anthony Fauci is worse than anything Josef Mengele ever did, he will be ultimately reaponsible for the deaths of hundreds of millions.
The data revealed that each year, every vaccinated person becomes more and more likely to die at a rate of seven percent per dose, per year.
Maybe it’s just me, but that sentence defies logic.
It might be saying, e.g., that if you’ve had three doses, your annual risk of death is 21% higher than it would be if you had had none.
There have been several studies from legitimate sources that have looked at the increase in non-Covid 19 deaths since the pandemic started. The data examined is from the National Center for Health Statistics. They have found that there has been a clear and significant increase in deaths from just about everything (but especially in heart disease and other chronic conditions). So the conclusion is that people are dying at a higher rate since Covid 19 measures were started and the vaccine became used/mandated.
https://www.heart.org/en/news/2023/01/25/cardiovascular-deaths-saw-steep-rise-in-us-during-first-year-of-the-covid-19-pandemic
https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/risk-of-sudden-cardiac-arrest-rises-sharply-in-ventura-county/
Notice how these studies are blaming Covid-19 for the death rate increases, not the vaccine. “The vaccines are safe and effective, I heart that from Anthony Fauci…” is the refrain.
I thought the increase in non-COVID deaths was due to the lack of health maintenance during the shutdown, such as delayed screenings and postponed surgeries.
My jabbed and boosted BIL who is thin as a rail and has low cholesterol had a heart attack and almost didn’t make it. Heart disease does NOT run in his family, they all live into their 90’s.
I thought the increase in non-COVID deaths was due to the lack of health maintenance during the shutdown, such as delayed screenings and postponed surgeries.
I think that will/did contribute as I know people who refused to go the the Dr and myself had an appointment cancelled by a physician. Had friend who insisted on making her Dermatologist check ups. Over the 2 year period they Found 2 melanomas on her. Going to the Dermatologist probably saved her a lot of future pain.
Well won’t the government love saving all those SS and Medicare payments?!
Fauci just pulled a Logan Run’s on the USA.
Another consequence of the TikTok home investor rush due to low interest rates and celebration of debt to ‘beat the system’:
A fourplex in Denver, Colorado imploded from a gas leak in August. No cleanup work has been done to date. Authorities are having difficulties contacting the owner, which is listed as an LLC out of Michigan. One of those nasty unexpected ‘maintenance’ issues that affects cash flow? Or bro is vacationing in Mexico and unavailable?
https://www.denverpost.com/2023/09/14/four-plex-explosion-denver-lincoln-park-cleanup/
sold us another bill of goods:
According to The Information, the factory, which Apple CEO Tim Cook announced alongside Joe Biden late last year, will cost $40 billion to build.
The chips at this factory, being made for companies like Apple as well as Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla, will still require assembly in Taiwan, TSMC engineers and former Apple employees told the outlet
https://thepostmillennial.com/new-arizona-chip-factory-will-still-require-assembly-in-taiwan-report
“2023 So Far…a Comedy Recap” Stand Up Clip by Jim Breuer (4m20s)
OMG, mimicking Hunter Biden was priceless!
And Joe before that.
Apologies if this is a double post.
Ukraine Troops Wave Their Flags via The Gateway Pundit’s YouTube Censoring Evidence Of Ukrainian Troops Embracing Nazi Symbols.
The Philly Tribune article is wacked.
“offered him $640 for the representation rights to sell his home in the next four to five years… After attempting to undo the mortgage he never wanted on his house,”
So, these lying realtors buy the rights to sell a property, and then the next day they basically cash-out refi the house itself. What the heck was written in these documents? The two people interviewed in the article didn’t read them.
Dr Harari said that human brains will be connected to a net.
Do I want my brain connected to a net. Does anybody want their brain connected to a net. Does anybody want to be hacked?
The masters of the Universe plan to assault you against your will. This is how the One World Order is going to use technology.
They are going to destroy 40% to 50% of jobs within 10 years by AI and Robot replacement turning humans into useless eater wards of the State.
Shouldn’t these people be arrested for threatening to use technology to assault humans , hack them like lab rats?
They are going to destroy 40% to 50% of jobs within 10 years by AI and Robot replacement
I don’t know. Some jobs, like flipping burgers or customer service chatbots can be automated. Others will be much harder.
There are plenty of NPC meatbots who will gladly sign up for a free burger or lottery ticket
They will brag that there is a chip in their head: “It’s so convenient!”
White House urges news networks to increase scrutiny of GOP’s Biden impeachment inquiry
BY ALEX GANGITANO – 09/13/23 9:10 AM ET
The White House has sent a memo to news outlets, urging them to ramp up scrutiny of the House Republicans’ impeachment inquiry into President Biden.
The memo, titled “It’s Time For The Media To Do More To Scrutinize House Republicans’ Demonstrably False Claims That They’re Basing Impeachment Stunt On,” was sent by Ian Sams, White House spokesperson for oversight and investigations.
https://thehill.com/homenews/4201615-white-house-urges-news-networks-to-increase-scrutiny-of-gops-biden-impeachment-inquiry/
“I Got COVID Wrong!” Admits Gavin Newsom
The Jimmy Dore Show
3 hours ago
California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom recently sat down with NBC’s Chuck Todd and made a stunning admission: that if he could he would have done the “exact opposite” of everything he did in response to the COVID pandemic. Of course, being the skilled politician he is, Newsom wouldn’t offer a single specific change he would have made nor would he explain why he allowed Hollywood to proceed during COVID in ways no other industry was allowed to.
Jimmy, along with guests Craig “Pasta” Jardula and Americans’ Comedian Kurt Metzger, discuss Newsom’s evasiveness and gibberish offered up in response to Todd’s perfectly legitimate questions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtGT0fE1z_0
20:28.
Arresting someone for paddle-boarding alone on the ocean in April 2020 tells me everything I need to know about this tyrant.
While locking up the poor indoors in their Section 8 apartments where they would be most likely to spread it to everybody. Meanwhile, this cvck was dining, MASK FREE, with lobbyists at The French Laundry.
This is what he meant he did wrong. He should have masked up more. LOL
‘She says in 2022, buyers were overbidding and paying all cash, creating a confusing situation for some realtors. ‘You know, I don’t understand it,’ Cloutier said. ‘To me, when everybody’s frothing at the bit to buy something is when you really shouldn’t’
I know Angie, I’ve said that to myself for years. Note to self, etc.
Marvin Gaye — What’s Happening Brother:
“Are things really getting better
Like the newspapers say
Can’t find no work can’t find no job, my friend
Money is tighter than it’s ever been
Say man, I just don’t understand
What’s going on across this land”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BDviY4dwfqQ&pp=ygUkbWFydmluIGdheWUgd2hhdCdzIGhhcHBlbmluZyBicm90aGVy
Sly & The Family Stone — Plastic Jim:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFr8w8QPI9E
Sly & The Family Stone — If You Want Me To Stay:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZFabOuF4Ps&list=PL1RRNXldMeREyIQk1AIAvBf-Fmjj8GkUb&index=3
More Listings Hit The Market In Vaughan, Richmond Hill & Markham Real Estate – Sept 6
Team Sessa Real Estate
48 minutes ago
Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices for the week of Aug 31 – Sept 6, 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NII5bOHXB2U
10:35. Desperate sellers? “The buyers today think every seller is a desperate seller. You can see it in the offers.”
That’s the spirit!!
‘I would’ve spoke in front of Satan about the property I worked hard for and paid off’
You could at this time, stamp yer little feets Jim.
‘I don’t feel like my house is paid for anymore. I feel like my house in somebody else’s house’
That’s because its is Jim. You got clouded title. So what did you spend the 600 pesos on?
‘Sunbelt Rentals has paid $5 million for land in East San Jose once slated to contain some of the 800 homes proposed by a local developer accused of real estate fraud…The seller, presumably the lender of a $6.25 million unpaid mortgage tied to the property’
Land for 800 California shacks, and they still had to give it away.
‘I get tons of phone calls from people in these positions. I spoke with an [owner] yesterday; they paid $1.2-million for a house and it’s down $300,000 in value,’ said Daniel Foch, director of economic research with RARE Real Estate Inc. The same owners have seen their monthly interest payments go from $2,000 to $6,000′
That’s a real pickle Dan.
‘Mr. Foch says many distressed owners are facing the prospect of losing their homes to lenders enforcing their power of sale in a foreclosure. ‘I think it’s just a ticking clock: Most of the people I speak with on the phone I ask what’s their number and they’ll say like, ‘We can do this for another 6 months’
Baby jeebus hates a quitter Dan,
“The same owners have seen their monthly interest payments go from $2,000 to $6,000”
Does the trophy wife care about that, or is it his problem?
She’s just making sure she’s got plenty of branches to monkey onto.
‘was meant to be his last project to financially prepare him for retirement. Johnson said his company was now ‘just hanging on’ by a small thread because he will continue paying high-interest rates until the homes are complete. ‘It’s quite dire. I feel a bit like (I’m) in quicksand. I’m just not sure, I’m just trying to hang on’…His concerns about the builder’s finances grew over the past few months because they would at times be late for payments. ‘When we contact them about the bills we’ve let go, no messages, no replies, nothing whatsoever, so we’ve been put out of pocket $60,000-80,000’
Over and over this happens, and they act like UFO’s just landed on the lawn.
Oz sure seems like a shady place full of crooks and deadbeats. It seems like it’s even worse than here.
IIRC, Oz was originally a penal colony.
“The Underdale development was meant to be his last project to financially prepare him for retirement.”
I’m guessing you didn’t pay attention to the yield curve being inverted, right Mark?
‘There are fewer tenants, while pressure from debt of more than $83,000 means I was forced to sell one apartment at a loss of 10 per cent compared to what I had paid. But no buyers have been found over the past six months’
Yer taking an a$$ pounding Nguyen, but it didn’t sell.
‘What Reuters saw on a recent trip appeared quite different. Empty palm tree-lined roads led to a mall where a karaoke lounge, a birds-nest museum and a herbal medicine shop were among the outlets shuttered. The four-storey mall had only around a dozen shops open, with cleaners outnumbering shoppers’
Man, you know it’s bad when the birds-nest museum closes.
I have to wonder if that “museum” sold bird-nest soup. And what is sold at the “herbal remedy shop.”
Hurry Before Its TOO LATE! | Canada Real Estate Market
OwlMortgage
2 hours ago
From protecting your mortgage rate from potential hikes to navigating the real estate market as a first-time buyer, we’ve got you covered. Discover how seniors can leverage their homes for income, and get expert insights on renewing your mortgage into a fixed or variable product. Plus, find out how to manage credit card debt with your home’s equity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcPfxMrFeqM
16:30.
Bombshell Biden Crime Audio Coming? Laptop Investigator Garrett Ziegler Explains
Robert Gouveia Esq.
1 hour ago
Is the dam breaking on the Bidens? It seems every day new evidence seems to implicate the Biden crime family, but is there even more to come? Garrett Ziegler, author of the Report on the Biden laptop runs through some of the latest developments and possible forthcoming news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGTDizGEQkE
18 minutes.
The entire Justice Department is shot through with corruption. Trump exposed it. I have no doubt that video of FJB engaging in illicit activities would not even amount to anything. When those charged with prosecuting are actually covering up and hiding things, there is no more rule of law.
I was notified 3 hours ago that I have a rare colorless melanoma on my right forearm. I have a consult next Monday morning with a surgeon for its excision and a possible sentinel lymph node biopsy. A whole body PET/CT scan has been requested, hopefully before the procedure.
melanoma
Good luck Red. I never heard of an invisible melanoma. I probably have plenty of them, sunlight and all that.
So much for the C in ABCD.
Adding to my frustration, I sent photos 4 months ago of the suspicious spots and their proximity to my previous squamous cell carcinoma scar from 15 years ago.
Just before we caught covid the bird had a Mohs surgery on her scalp leaving a huge incision requiring 14-staples to close it. No shortage of fun tickets.
😬
Colorless is not invisible. It appears as a white patch on my otherwise freckled pink skin. My dermatologist has requested a whole body PET/CT scan, the site’s excision, and a possible sentinel lymph node biopsy. Translation: possible metastases. I could be looking at immunotherapy in my very near future.
Sorry about that.
Best wishes and prayers.
I was notified 3 hours ago that I have a rare colorless melanoma on my right forearm. I have a consult next Monday morning with a surgeon for its excision
Did they confirm that it is melanoma (differential dx)? What was the stage (which I think is done on tissue)? If it’s superficial spreading then things are okay. Everything is dependant on stage.
pT1a based on biopsy. PET/CT or sentinel lymph node biopsy needed to evaluate presence or absence of metastases. Superficial spreading.
“I was notified 3 hours ago that I have a rare colorless melanoma on my right forearm. I have a consult next Monday morning with a surgeon for its excision and a possible sentinel lymph node biopsy.”
I trust they caught this in time. These melanoma often lurk on the sole of the foot where they’re not detected until they’re palpable. The bird’s pale Euro skin is no match for the high desert sun, and regular visits to the dermatologist are scheduled well in advance. I don’t pray, but I’ll be thinking about you on Monday.
Thank you. I’m also scheduled for a consult with a MOHS surgeon on Wednesday. Insurance is claiming that the PET/CT is investigational/experimental. I’m willing to pay out-of-pocket to know sooner than later whether I’m lighting that up.
Insurance is claiming that the PET/CT is investigational/experimental. I’m willing to pay out-of-pocket to know sooner than later whether I’m lighting that up.
From everything I read, the fact that the doc is calling it a T1a means that there are no metastases. Doing a SLNB is called for and that’s where the most important data will be in terms of prognostication.
The lab I worked in developed a PCR test for tumor cells using the Applied Biosystems 96 well plate with 5 detection genes (the same technology used for the Covid-19 test). It’s called Minimum Residual Disease (MRD) detection and is used to find very low number of tumor cells, in our case we were looking primarily at the bone marrow. But MRD testing is used for all kinds of cancers.
MRD testing is much more sensitive than regular MRI or conventional imaging (CT-PET). Our PCR test could detect tumors that were completely invisible to any standard technology. But after a huge clinical trial and other research, it turns out that our MRD test wasn’t useful because it couldn’t predict outcome.
PET-CT-MRI scans are used to look for metastases in cancer that have already spread, and imaging of any kind aren’t very sensitive–if something shows up, this is not good news. With T1a stage tumors, investigating lymph nodes is far more revealing and unless they really got the staging wrong, there isn’t anything for the PET scan to find.
No baseline investigations are recommended for patients with stage 0-II cutaneous melanoma as per AAD and stage 0 to IIIB as per NCCN. Serum LDH has prognostic value in metastatic disease, and testing for LDH is recommended in patients with metastatic melanoma across all guidelines. ESMO and NCCN recommend whole-body positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain for patients with stage III and higher disease. ESMO recommends PET and MRI of the brain for any patients with tumor pT3b and higher. Additionally, as per NCCN, PET and MRI brain should be considered for patients with early-stage disease and signs and symptoms of metastatic disease and patients with the high-risk disease for patients such as those who present with positive sentinel lymph node or microscopic satellite or in-transit metastatic lesions on pathology or with clinically palpable lymph nodes. However, CCA does not recommend imaging for patients with positive sentinel lymph nodes (Grade B) while recommending PET and MRI brain imaging for palpable lymph nodes (Grade B).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK572149/
This issue of early detection and performing imaging and other tests looking for early stage tumor was hacked out for years with breast cancer (mammograms) and prostate cancer (PSA). After years of research it was found that screening didn’t necessarily save lives. That’s why guidelines were changed for these tests. However, if a person is at elevated risk (e.g., BRCA 1 or 2) then early screening is called for. It’s not necessary or advisable to screen everybody regardless of risk–ignoring risk factors is the dismal strategy that was used to give everybody the Covid-19 vaccine, even those people who virtually never die or get seriously ill from the disease (e.g., children). One size doesn’t fit all and frequently does more damage than good.
That’s probably why your insurance company won’t pay for PET-CT scans, since it is not recommended by current standards. Basically, if nobody has demonstrated that something actually works, then it is experimental. These kinds of decisions are made independent of any utilization or cost issues. Doctors love to do fancy tests and use the latest technologies, but much of the time it ends up not being useful. That’s how I got laid off–our test didn’t work and so we lost our funding.
I’m well-versed in cancer diagnostics and therapeutics, professionally and personally. I want to know sooner than later if I’m lighting up a PET/CT.
The doctor isn’t calling it anything. The only piece of information at this point is a shave biopsy. A shave biopsy doesn’t provide information regarding metastases. I have to decide between a wide excision and SLNB procedure or a MOHS procedure.
Scenario 1: I have a PET/CT before surgery. If PET/CT +, then MOHS (avoiding risks of SLNB) and immunotherapy ASAP. If PET/CT -, then wide excision and SLNB. SLNB could still be + but at least the PET/CT isn’t +.
Scenario #2: I don’t get a PET/CT before surgery. I have the wide excision and SLNB procedure. If SLNB +, then PET/CT.
pT1a based on biopsy
Superficial spreading.
It seems that there are differing views on the use of Mohs surgery for the treatment of melanoma. There is consensus that Mohs should only be used for “in Situ” melanomas (Stage 0)–lots of arguments when there is growth into the dermis.
Yes, dermatologists occasionally recommend Mohs for treating melanoma, the most serious type of skin cancer. Mohs is only used to treat an early melanoma, and it must be a type of melanoma called lentigo malignant melanoma. This type of melanoma stays close to the surface of the skin for a while.
https://www.aad.org/public/diseases/skin-cancer/types/common/melanoma/mohs-surgery
Stanford:
About Mohs Surgery for Melanoma
Mohs surgery is an advanced surgical technique that precisely removes many forms of skin cancer while preserving healthy surrounding tissue. It is done as an outpatient surgery under local anesthesia by dermatology surgeons. In many cases, this surgery is done at your first appointment at Stanford, following a skin biopsy to get a diagnosis. Mohs surgery may be used to treat melanoma on the face, scalp, or ears that involves the top layer of the skin (epidermis) and is called melanoma in situ (mainly lentigo maligna type). The procedure can completely remove the melanoma while sparing as much normal skin around the tumor as possible. Mohs surgery is generally not indicated for melanomas that extend deeper into the skin.
Superficial spreading is different from Lentigo maligna melanoma. A stage 1a melanoma is by definition not “in situ” (that would be a stage 0). T1a is a localized <.8 mm thick tumor which just enters the dermis.
Wide margin excision is the gold standard for a 1a, invasive tumor. SLNB isn't even called for all the time. Your tumor is the lowest grade melanoma possible, with the best prognosis, too.
pT1a based on biopsy
Superficial spreading.
Based on a shaved biopsy that provides limited information.
Mason Williams – Classical Gas – ORIGINAL STEREO VERSION
https://youtu.be/mREi_Bb85Sk?si=lUG1FDOg5dUfmg0H
Mason Williams —
Orange Blossom Special
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=khIifxuWr5o
In 2020, I heard about a Toronto firefighter who owned 15 homes that he rented out. He used his masonic connections to get approved at the banks for all the homes.
For his sake I hope he bought them a long time ago when they were “cheap”, otherwise rising interest rates will collapse his empire, and not even his Masonic Lodge membership will save him.
It’s bad enough to have negative cash flow on two hungry alligators. Fifteen gators? Mamma mia!
There are WAYYY more than 500 single family homes for sale in Cape Coral, Zillow says there are 1,189. A realtor lying about the market, imagine that?
https://www.zillow.com/homes/Cape-Coral,-FL_rb/
WAYYY more
CRUCIAL Housing Market TIPPING POINT Has Been Reached at 16:48 discussing that topic. I’d follow this guy if you’re in FL.