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It’s Really Left Our Whole Life In Limbo

A report from the Orange County Register. “Surviving the slowdown was a key theme at the California Association of Realtors conference last week in Anaheim. Helen Jeong’s most prosperous year as a real estate agent occurred in 2020, when five sales generated the most cash she had seen in her 17 years in the business. A year later, mortgage rates shot up like a rocket, turning the real estate industry upside down. ‘2020 was my best year,’ Jeong said, between pep talks and training sessions at the California Association of Realtors conference in Anaheim. ‘After that, I’ve only had one closing per year, and that’s terrible. … Buyers were all priced out.'”

“Burbank-based real estate broker Karol Kochova, who led the session on stress and burnout, said financial stress is taking a toll on agents’ personal lives as well as their work. ‘Unfortunately, that trickles down into the family life,’ Kochova said. ‘It’s heartbreaking … to watch people going through financial hardship and depression.’ Some agents are thinking of career changes, she said, while others are taking part-time jobs like driving for Uber or Lyft. Some have taken up meditation, yoga or exercise to deal with the stress, while others are sinking into depression. ‘It’s their stress level of not being able to predict what the market is going to do in the next six to 12 months,’ Kochova said. Jaime Velarde, owner of Rapid-o Signs in Santa Fe Springs, said the phones stopped ringing at his ‘for sale’ and ‘open house’ sign business in 2022. This has been Rapid-o Signs’ worst year for sales since the business opened in 1999. ‘Yeah, we’re in trouble,’ Velarde said. ‘Every year was pretty consistent before that.'”

The Almanac in California. “In San Francisco’s Peninsula region, the scramble for properties has subsided, leading to a more balanced market for buyers and sellers. ‘In late 2022, the market transitioned as interest rates increased and the IPO boom receded,’ said Dana Carmel, founder of the Dana Carmel Group and Represent Realty. ‘This has caused home prices to adjust to changing economic factors, leveling out the playing field between buyers and sellers.’ Menlo Park, Atherton and Portola Valley are known for being upscale, affluent communities. ‘Luxury homes are lingering on the market and slower to sell,’ Carmel said.”

“Sellers will need to place an emphasis on preparation. ‘Gone are the days of putting your home on the market as-is and expecting multiple offers the same week,’ Carmel said. ‘Investing in your home with fresh landscaping, paint and decluttering makes a big impact on the value.'”

From Bankrate. “Wendy LaManque knows how her life could look without $163,000 in debt from law school holding her back. She had been living it for more than three years when her federal student loans were in forbearance. Taking advantage of her freed up cash, LaManque and her husband saved for a down payment and bought a house in the Catskills of upstate New York. They paid off their car, eliminated their credit card debt, started an emergency fund for the first time, opened a recording studio as a side business, wrote music for their band and even got a dog.”

“Now, LaManque’s student loan payments are resuming, and she’s grappling with how the roughly $900 monthly payment could affect her new life and budget. ‘I’m nervous about how I’m going to manage that from a time perspective and what that’s going to do to my health,’ LaManque says. ‘Even if I find a solution that helps me cover my loan payments, I’ll be breaking even and not saving money. … It’s full-on crisis mode over here. The further away I get from being in my late teens and early 20s, the more experience I have with the world and finances, the more I see how backward this entire situation is, that someone with no way to pay back a loan and with no job history could just be handed six figures and say, ‘Good luck kid.’”

The Washington Post. “Madelynne Williams, 37, was fresh out of college and a year into her career as a schoolteacher when she bought a condo at Marley Ridge, a set of three buildings in the heart of Ward 7, in 2008. For young, aspiring homeowners like Williams who worked with limited budgets, the cozy units at Marley Ridge were worthwhile investments. But today, some of the condos have sustained major damage from leaky roofs, among other problems. Multiple owners have catalogued them in lawsuits against the board and management over the past five years. Williams bought the condo for $140,000 in early 2008, according to tax records; it’s now worth $166,600, according to Zillow estimates, a 19% appreciation. Ada Symister, a Marley Ridge condo owner who also described problems getting the board’s attention for unrepaired leaks, bought her unit for $156,400 in late 2006; it’s now worth $162,700, just over a 4% appreciation. Redfin data, however, estimates their properties have depreciated in value by more than 10% and 3%, respectively, since purchase.”

“‘This is not what I expected. I’m still in dismay,’ Williams said. ‘[I] believed that it would appreciate like other properties in the city.’ In 2021, she moved out of her Marley Ridge condo and is finishing repairs before renting it out, she said. She’s renting an apartment in the meantime while paying the mortgage for her condo. ‘[Purchasing my condo] was me, like, achieving the American Dream,’ Symister said. But with the damage that was never fixed, like her perpetually leaky roof, ‘it’s an American nightmare … To this day, I feel like it was the biggest mistake I’ve ever done in my life.'”

The New York Post. “Rental prices continue to tumble nationally, particularly in the places that saw the largest surges in prices. Rents fell the most in Austin, at -8% year over year in August. The metro was followed by Tampa, FL (-5.5%); Dallas and Raleigh, NC (both -5.4%); Portland, OR (-5.2%); San Francisco (-4.9%); Orlando, FL, and Riverside, CA (both -4.8%); Las Vegas (-4.6%); and Phoenix (-4.5%).”

“‘Sellers got used to the fair value of homes being inflated, so they were not going to sell for less than [what folks] got during the frenzy,’ says Stephanie Douglass, co-founder of Open House in Austin, a real estate brokerage that works with first-time homebuyers. ‘Instead of lowering prices, sellers [have been] renting [out their] properties, which flooded the rental market.'”

Bisnow on Pennsylvania. “For all the talk of whether the economy is heading for a soft landing or a harsher recession, bad times are already here for commercial real estate in Philadelphia. Low interest rates and pent-up demand created a deluge of construction starts from late 2020 through mid-2022 in multifamily writ large. Investors who used the low-interest-rate environment to secure long-term, fixed-rate debt for their portfolios now find themselves being asked by contemporaries in cash crunches to provide rescue capital, panelists said.”

“‘You’re getting a call from someone who controls an asset that has no liquidity, and it’s a potential conversion or a piece of land,’ Post Brothers co-founder Matthew Pestronk said. ‘Throw out the lowest number that they won’t be insulted by, say you need this much time to execute, and you’re getting answers of, ‘Huh, let us think about that.’ It’s a painful period, but opportunities are starting to emerge.'”

The Toronto Sun in Canada. “How does the cliché go? That a real estate agent will never not tell you that it’s a great time to buy or sell? Survey a group of honest, experienced real estate agents at the moment and I would bet most would be saying that it’s not a great time to be buyer or a seller. The theory went, even reduced demand would still hold its own against Toronto’s structurally insufficient supply and prices would remain sticky. However, I don’t think anyone quite expected the dramatic thud that greeted us after Labour Day, especially once the Bank of Canada mercifully announced a pause to their rate hiking campaign. Rather than seeing the renewed vigor we witnessed after last spring’s conditional pause, not much happened.”

“A buyer I worked with this month with a budget of $700,000 would have been qualified at $1.2M at the peak but the price of the properties we’re looking at have perhaps adjusted all of 10%. Adding to the complexities of this new market, we have more inventory starting to pile up even further solidifying the reality that if one has something they need to sell, their buy needs to come after. This is the absolute inverse of the rhythm that has dominated the market for years and years. Showings have slowed. Great homes that once wouldn’t have even made it to market without being snapped up before the photos were back are now often sitting. In all but a select few pockets of the city, offer dates are a game of Russian roulette. The market is balancing out and because the shift happened so quickly, to many it feels like the bottom is falling away.”

“For sellers used to holding all the power it’s a new world. Having your house take longer than a week to sell, having to be patient, having to negotiate rather than simply relying on buyer competition to do the heavy lifting, contending with conditions — it’s all basically foreign at this point.”

The Daily Mail. “Asking prices are being slashed across the South East of England as home sellers struggle to find a buyer. Eight of the 10 places in the UK that have seen price reductions of 5 per cent or more are in the South East, according to data shared exclusively with This is Money by the property website, Zoopla. Thanet in Kent, which includes the town of Margate, has seen more than one in five of all its current property listings have asking prices slashed by 5 per cent or more in the last 90 days. Dover, Brighton and Hove and Surrey Heath have also all seen almost one in five available listings reduced in price by at least 5 per cent in the last 90 days. Rightmove has also also reported that more than a third of homes for sale have had their asking prices cut, the highest since January 2011.”

“Henry Pryor, a professional buying agent, says that buyers need to be wary of taking the asking price too literally. In his opinion, an asking price is not necessarily an indication of value, nor is it a statement of what the seller might accept. It is also not necessarily what the estate agent advised, or what a mortgage valuer might sign off on. Pryor says: ‘It’s amazing how many people mistake an asking price for value. It is a combination of the greed of the owner and the ‘enthusiasm’ of the agent to get the business. The biggest discount to asking price that we have achieved so far this year is 11 per cent but one of our best deals resulted in paying 10 per cent more. ‘Remember, the asking price isn’t a statement of value or an indication of what the seller will accept.'”

7 News in Australia. “Kathy Mattiello is one JND Homes client who has been waiting two years for her Sydney home to be finished. Mattiello said mould is growing on the timber frames because they have been exposed to wet weather since January 2023. She said it’s likely they’ll have to start the build from scratch because the home’s structural integrity has been compromised. ‘There’s a good chance they will have to demolish it … which is a huge setback,’ she said. ‘It’s really left our whole life in limbo.'”

“Young couple Rosie and Sam Tramontana signed with JND Homes in September 2021, but are yet to move into their house. They allege they found a number of defects at different stages of their build that JND Homes did not accept accountability for. Sam said, over the past two years, other JND Homes’ customers told him the builder had not responded to their unsettled debts. He said he hasn’t heard from the builder in two months regarding his own house. ‘I just don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel,’ Sam said. ‘There’s homeowner’s properties that are being vandalised now … I empathise with them. So far this year, 21 NSW builders had an administrator appointed, and 69 builders are classified as ‘in liquidation.'”

Stuff New Zealand. “A Waikato couple’s dream to renovate a heritage countryside villa turned into a ‘nightmare’ after a builder went into liquidation, leaving the house incomplete with ‘substandard’ work. Barry Young entrusted Refresh Renovations, a renovation company with a network of 44 franchisees nationwide, and signed up with their franchisee in Waikato to renovate a four-bedroom Cambridge villa he bought in 2021. The three-month renovation project started in February 2022, but turned into what the couple describe as a ‘painful’ never-ending battle as the company’s former Waikato franchisee owner Ajit Singh went into liquidation.”

“‘Refresh Renovations put us in contact with their Waikato territory renovation specialists who did not know how to read plans, deal with council, complete building work to code, project manage or pay their contractors with the money we gave them,’ he said. ‘The franchisee owner Ajit Singh went into liquidation and ran off to Australia with a lot of our money.'”

Business Insider. “Recent developments at Chinese property giant Evergrande aren’t quite inspiring confidence in China’s real estate market. The company’s troubles have been deepening recently, which have torpedoed its share prices. On Tuesday, Evergrande’s shares tanked 7% by midday, extending a slump that took the stock down as much as 25% on Monday. This means Evergrande’s share price has plummeted 27% this week. Evergrande is worth about 5.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, or $678 million, now – a massive fall from grace from the company’s heydays in 2017 when it was worth nearly 420 billion Hong Kong dollars.”

“Evergrande’s stock has been hit by a series of bad news in the last few days. They include the cancellation of key creditor meetings this week that were announced on Friday and another notice on Monday that it would be unable to issue new debt. Late on Monday, Caixin, a Chinese financial news outlet, reported that Chinese authorities detained Pan Darong, a former chief financial official at Evergrande. Authorities also imposed restrictions on Xia Haijun, a former CEO at the property giant.”

“China is trying to revive its property sector by stimulating consumer demand, but consumers are unlikely to be clamoring for new apartments amid record-high youth unemployment rate and slower economic growth, experts told Insider. In fact, there are way too many empty homes in China. A former top China official said there could be enough vacant homes in China to house up to 3 billion people — which is nearly 10 times the population of the US.”

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This Post Has 141 Comments

  1. ‘Unfortunately, that trickles down into the family life,’ Kochova said. ‘It’s heartbreaking … to watch people going through financial hardship and depression.’ Some agents are thinking of career changes, she said, while others are taking part-time jobs like driving for Uber or Lyft. Some have taken up meditation, yoga or exercise to deal with the stress, while others are sinking into depression’

    Are we there yet?

    1. while others are sinking into depression. ‘It’s their stress level of not being able to predict what the market is going to do in the next six to 12 months,’
      What arrogance. Stress because they can’t “predict” what the market will do in the next 6-12 months! No can predict with any real accuracy what is going to occur in the next 6-12 months, economically speaking.

      1. But in their line of work it’s easy to see what the next 6 to 12 months will bring. Actually the next several years. It’s a$$ poundings galore. And if you haven’t already changed your game plan to do something else moving forward then have fun going down with the ship.

      2. Realty has always been variable income; as with all other commission-based jobs. That’s why real estate is such a favorite of rich wives. Gives them something to do while hubby is off making real money at a corporate job.

    2. One of the things they should teach anyone who has income that is dependent on real estate is the first thing they should do before they increase their standard of living is develop at least a 12 month reserve, preferably more. The only ones who really survive in this industry are those who stay debt free and build a massive emergency fund. You have to be in a position, not just to ride out months of bad times, but years of bad times.

    4. And the OC Register is writing articles like this we know we’re at the “Are we there yet?” moment in time. The Register is usually a shameless real estate rah-rah rag.

      1. The execs and BOD don’t care. They’re all millionaires. Who cares if the employees and shareholders suffer?

    2. “Thousands of stores across the US have been forced to lock up basic products like toothpaste and deodorant following a spike in shoplifting.

      As of April 2023, stores had lost an estimated $86.6 billion to retail theft in 2022 – with projections indicating that by 2025, retail theft may cost stores over $115 billion”

      $115 billion is that a lot?

      In the State of California, it is effectively LEGAL to steal $950 or less, because reasons.

        2. Deodorant is almost $10 per 3 oz stick.

          Hmm, I just checked on Walmart’s website. A two pack of Degree (5.4 oz) is $5.78

          Is $10 the downtown San Francisco price?

      3. In addition to the food desert there will be pharmacy deserts.

        No doubt that’s to be touted by MSM and the left as racist.

        1. If all retailers flee and UPS/FedEx/Amazon refuse to deliver in those areas they will be “everything deserts”

    3. 900 stores out of 11,000 doesn’t sound too drastic. But I don’t believe people are buying band-aids and Selsun Blue and cheesy Christmas gifts online. No, I think this is just normal re-alignment of stores with demographics. Are they counting the CVSs that moved into Target stores too?

      And I wonder how many of those CVSs are close to Wal-Mart. I’m so accustomed to Wally’s prices that CVS gives me sticker shock.

  3. (I love this blog.)

    “Wendy LaManque knows how her life could look without $163,000 in debt from law school holding her back. She had been living it for more than three years when her federal student loans were in forbearance.

    (Stupidly) Taking advantage of her freed up cash, LaManque and her husband saved for a down payment and bought a house in the Catskills of upstate New York. They paid off their car, eliminated their credit card debt, started an emergency fund for the first time, opened a recording studio as a side business, wrote music for their band and even got a dog.”

    (And then?)

    “Now, (and surprsingly!) LaManque’s student loan payments are resuming, and she’s grappling with how the roughly $900 monthly payment could affect her new life and budget. ‘I’m nervous about how I’m going to manage that from a time perspective and what that’s going to do to my health,’ LaManque says. ‘Even if I find a solution that helps me cover my loan payments, I’ll be breaking even and not saving money. … It’s full-on crisis mode over here. The further away I get from being in my (stupid) late teens and early 20s, the more experience I have with the world and finances, the more I see how backward this entire situation is, that someone with no way to pay back a loan and with no job history could just be handed six figures and say, ‘Good luck kid.’”

    (What a dummy.)

    1. “… the more I see how backward this entire situation is, that someone with no way to pay back a loan and with no job history could just be handed six figures and say, ‘Good luck kid.’”

      (There is nothing backward about it; This is the debt-slave system at work. You, enjoying the age when you knew everything, willingly bought into it and …

      (ta da)

      … here you are.)

      1. “… the more I see how backward this entire situation is, that someone with no way to pay back a loan and with no job history could just be handed six figures and say, ‘Good luck kid.’”

        ZERO accountability from this “victim.” It’s always someone else’s fault and gub’mint is supposed to ride to the rescue.

    2. “I’m nervous about how I’m going to manage that from a time perspective and what that’s going to do to my health,” LaManque says.

      Wendy, when the going gets tough, the tough get going!

    3. She attended Brooklyn Law School and was admitted to practice in New York State on May 21, 2014. Her business name is American Guild of Musical Artists, “the labor union of the finest singers, dancers, and staging staff in opera, choral performance, and concert dance in the United States.”

    4. She went to law school and thought her college loans would be forgiven and the taxpayers would pick up the tab all because of a virus?

    6. Done right, leveraging the forbearance period to lessen debt load is NOT a bad idea. If she paid off her car and her debt, and IF (big if) buying the house reduced her monthly house payment (compared to previous rent), that would have been smart. Then, when debt payments restarted, money that had been used to pay off debt and high rent could be shifted to pay the student loans.

      But she probably didn’t do it right. I’m sure she ran up the credit card on goodies, paid off an expensive car, and bought an expensive house, leaving her no breathing room after forebearance.

      And I guess I’m a dummy, but I thought lawyers made plenty enough salary to pay student loans? Usually it’s the psychology majors at SBUX who are hard up. Is there an overadundence of lawyers?

    7. The best part is the loans are from law school. so not just undergrad, but she signed up AGAIN for these loans. And law school is supposed to be hard to get into (best and brightest don’t ya know?). And this is what they put out. People who can’t even do simple math or look more than a year into the future.

      Yeah, we’re doomed.

      1. I’m still waiting for a large-scale study on which college majors are in the most forbearance or default on student loan debt.

        You would think that someone in Congress would have asked for this. After all, the gov is the sole creditor for all this nonsense.

  4. ‘After that, I’ve only had one closing per year, and that’s terrible. … Buyers were all priced out.’”

    True dat, Helen, but you can bask in the memory of setting up five FBs to meet their financial Waterloo.

    1. What did these realtor clowns think would happen after prices doubled over 3 years? Price stability is the best thing for any industry unless you want booms and busts.

      1. Exactly. The last thing you want to see if your money is dependent on anything real estate is a rabid boom. Steady, sustainable appreciation means steady, sustainable income.

  5. ‘Unfortunately, that trickles down into the family life,’ Kochova said. ‘It’s heartbreaking … to watch people going through financial hardship and depression.’

    The NAR is an industry of dissemblers. UHSs feel no guilt over their role in exploiting FB greed, entitlement, and FOMO to manipulate these hapless fools buying into unsustainable housing bubbles that will leave them financially devastated. Always Be Closing doesn’t leave much room for a conscience, or fiduciary responsibility to “clients.” So cry me a river, starving realtors.

  6. ‘Even if I find a solution that helps me cover my loan payments, I’ll be breaking even and not saving money. … It’s full-on crisis mode over here.

    Ante up, deadbeat. Your debt, your problem.

  7. This student debt is crazy, i went for my wellness check this week,my 40ish family Doctor ,spent most of my appointment just chatting , since i’m a fairly “Sound”, ole horse….he said he came to our Rural area ,because in 2 more years ,after being here 10 years, the government will have forgiven ,most of his 260K debt….just for praticing here …..He likes our area .and plans to stay right here ,to raise his family …He said he urges young people ,that he meets ,and can influence, to go to school, but to Tech School , which in our area is completely free, no debt to follow you,like forever ..
    Our youngest daughter graduated from the local Tech school system ,a year ago ,Completely debt free, as an Ultrasound technician , which I never heard of, which seems to be in huge demand, She was hired even before she graduated , At 70K for the first year , but has to drive 40 miles out of our Rural area , to the regional hospital biggie, …they’re slooshing with money,seems like..

    1. well. that’s $26K a year bonus to work and stay in your area, the hospital didn’t have to pay out , so it was a win win for everybody,

      Ive had ultrasound on my heart and legs, had a heart murmur since child hood and some cellulitis 15 years ago, so its not bad to see the blood flow is still ok, compared to last year….

    2. My former girlfriend wen the Army route for Med school. Sure she had to work Active duty for 4 (?) years but so what. She spent most of that time in Fort Bragg/Fayetteville. And I lived near Fayetteville in Southern Pines/Pinehurst for a few years, which is a very nice area, and lots of Special Forces tied to Fort Bragg lived there.
      There are ways to come out debt free or almost debt free.

  8. “…Henry Pryor,
    ‘Remember, the asking price isn’t a statement of value or an indication of what the seller will accept…’”

    No Henry, its an indicator of the fantasyland world your clients are living in.

  9. “‘This is not what I expected. I’m still in dismay,’ Williams said. ‘[I] believed that it would appreciate like other properties in the city.’

    Ever hear of due diligence, Madelynne with an extra “n”? Ever hear of contrarian research into popular delusions?

      1. “It ain’t so much the things that people don’t know that makes trouble in this world, as it is the things that people know that ain’t so.” — Mark Twain

  10. ‘it’s an American nightmare … To this day, I feel like it was the biggest mistake I’ve ever done in my life.’”

    Buck up, Madelynne. With your aversion to accepting any personal responsibility or accountability for your poor choices, your litany of mistakes is just getting started.

  11. Investors who used the low-interest-rate environment to secure long-term, fixed-rate debt for their portfolios now find themselves being asked by contemporaries in cash crunches to provide rescue capital, panelists said.”

    Die, speculator scum.

  12. “Instead of lowering prices, sellers [have been] renting [out their] properties, which flooded the rental market.’”

    And now builders are doing the same thing. Sucks, doesn’t landlords, when he whole supply/demand thing works against you. Expect rents to plummet.

  13. Busted! Adam Schiff Funneled Millions To Defense Contractors After Taking Donations

    by Zero Hedge
    MONDAY, SEP 25, 2023 – 01:45 PM

    While Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) campaigns for a Senate seat on a platform of earmarks for local causes, the 12-term Congressman has been busted steering millions in taxpayer dollars to for-profit defense contractors, many of whom have been political donors to his campaigns.

    A POLITICO review of congressional earmarks and political contributions found that in addition to the money for homelessness and drug treatment, Schiff also steered millions to for-profit companies and raised tens of thousands for his House reelection campaigns from corporate executives and people connected to them. The review was mostly limited to publicly available data from the brief three-year window when corporate earmarks were disclosed.

    In two particularly egregious cases, Schiff channeled millions in funding to Smiths Detection and Phasebridge, Inc., two defense companies within his district – with $6 million steered to Smiths Detection and $3 million to Phasebridge. Both moves would have been barred under reforms adopted in 2010. This financial maneuvering coincided with Schiff receiving $8,500 in contributions from PMA Group PAC and two family members of Paul Magliocchetti, founder and owner of the lobbying firm retained by both defense companies.

    In 2011, Paul Magliocchetti was sentenced to 27 months in prison for making illegal campaign contributions.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/busted-adam-schiff-funneled-millions-defense-contractors-after-taking-donations

  14. enough vacant homes in China to house up to 3 billion people

    That seems an order of magnitude higher than what we’ve heard of before. I wonder if it’s possible.

    1. You can fit a bunch of Chinese into one dwelling. An ex-GF of mine & her college roommates moved into an apartment that had previously been occupied by nearly 30 Chinese illegal migrants working off their debt to human traffickers at local Chinese restaurants. This was in a smallish 4-bedroom apartment.

      1. 30 Chinese illegal migrants

        I get that, as much as I get lots of people filling one life raft.

        What’s the typical Chines family occupancy in China? Maybe three to five?

        2. What’s the typical Chines family occupancy in China? Maybe three to five?

          Urban versus rural will be different. In rural areas, people live in 4+ story homes that accommodate an extended family — aunts, uncles, grandparents, children. It is a useful social support structure.

          Urban areas, that is less true due to space constraints.

  15. https://instapundit.com/

    THE LEFT ALWAYS WANTS TO SILENCE ITS OPPOSITION BECAUSE THE TRUTH IS FATAL TO IT:

    Prosecutors aim to ‘silence’ Trump with proposed gag order in 2020 election case, his lawyers say. (Link below.)

    “And let’s be honest here: Prosecuting the President’s main opponent and then gagging him is serious Banana Republic stuff.”

    “At some point, the government’s behavior is sufficiently illegitimate that people will start acting outside of the usual channels.”

    “We’re getting dangerously close to that point, and our feckless overclass either doesn’t know, or doesn’t care, or actively wants that to happen.”

    9:10 am by Glenn Reynolds

    [Link here:]
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/prosecutors-aim-to-silence-trump-with-proposed-gag-order-in-2020-election-case-his-lawyers-say/ar-AA1hhxR3

    – Yup! Banana Republic stuff
    – “Dangerously close.” My view as well.

  16. Thanks to Oh bama. delaying the Credit cards act by 18 month before it took effect. and allow companies to change almost everybody CC to variable interest rates from fixed.

    Average interest rates on credit cards have already surged from 16% in February 2022, before the Fed began hiking rates, to a new record of 20.71% as of Wednesday, according to a Bankrate database that goes back to 1985. The previous record was 19% in July 1991.

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/high-interest-rates-could-be-new-reality-americans

    1. Yahoo
      Yahoo Finance
      Stocks open lower amid Fed fallout, shutdown worries: Stock market news today
      Karen Friar
      Tue, September 26, 2023 at 6:34 AM PDT·2 min read
      In this article:

      Stocks sank at the open on Tuesday as Wall Street increasingly faced up to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates any time soon.

      The S&P 500 (^GSPC) pulled back 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped about 175 points, or 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was down 0.8%. While the three major stock gauges started the week with wins, they are on track for a losing month.

      Fed policymaker Neel Kashkari said Monday that given the surprising resilience of the US economy, the central bank will probably need to hike rates again and keep them high to cool inflation — echoing recent comments from other officials.

      The prospect of “higher for longer” interest rates put pressure on markets. The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back somewhat on Tuesday but still was not far off its highest levels since 2007, which helped push the dollar to a new 10-month peak at one point in the morning.

      With recession worries still in play, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned markets may not be prepared for a worst-case scenario where the Fed lifts rates to 7% alongside stagflation.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-open-lower-amid-fed-fallout-shutdown-worries-stock-market-news-today-111709899.html

    2. Updated Tue, Sep 26 2023 10:52 AM EDT
      S&P 500 falls 1% to lowest level since June after disappointing economic data: Live updates
      Sarah Min
      Brian Evans

      The S&P 500 fell on Tuesday to its lowest level in months after the latest home sales and consumer confidence reports stoked concern over the state of the U.S. economy.

      The broader index fell 1%, dipping below 4,300 for the first time since June 9. The Nasdaq Composite
      pulled back 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 265 points, or 0.8%.

      August new home sales missed expectations. Homes under contract totaled 675,000 for the month, down 8.7% from July, according to the Commerce Department. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipated a total of 695,000, which would have represented a 2.7% fall from unrevised July totals.

      The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 103 in September, down from 108.7 in August. Economists were anticipating 105.5, according to consensus estimates from Dow Jones. The expectations index tumbled to 73.7, below the level that observers associate with recessions.

      JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned interest rates may need to rise further to tamp down inflation, comments that added to bearish sentiment Tuesday. Bank stocks declined, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF falling 0.7%. Wells Fargo shares dropped more than 1%, while Morgan Stanley fell nearly 1%.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    3. OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.
      – Pudd’nhead Wilson’s Calendar, Mark Twain

    5. Investor’s Business Daily
      Stock Market Today
      Dow Jones Breaks Key Level After Economic Data, Moody’s Warning; Tesla Faces New Probe
      FacebookTwitterLinkedIn
      VIDYA RAMAKRISHNAN 12:20 PM ET 09/26/2023

      The major indexes continued to suffer steep losses at midday Tuesday after more economic data was released. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 300 points and was down 0.9%. The index is breaking support at its 200-day moving average.

      The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell more than 1% in the stock market today.

      Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq was higher compared with the same time Monday.

      The small-cap Russell 2000 pared some early losses and was down 0.5%.

      The Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 0.9% at midday.

      The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note continued to stay near multiyear highs and was unchanged at 4.53% at the hour. On Monday, Treasury yields hit levels last seen in 2007, before the housing market crash of 2008.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-fell-after-economic-data-moodys-warning-tesla-fell/

      1. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell more than 1% in the stock market today.

        Steep losses? I’m not seeing it. Lay a straight edge on the last 10 years of the S&P. Still looks like a moonshot more than a crash.

          2. Mortgage is 2.25%. CC is high % but the balance is under $10K, which I will pay off by the end of year, depending on when the paychex fall. No other debt.

    6. U.S. Markets
      Morning Bid: Bond crush stifles markets as $134 billion hits
      Reuters
      September 26, 2023 3:08 AM PDT
      Updated 8 hours ago
      By Reuters
      The employee of a currency exchange shop counts U.S. dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez Acquire

      A renewed surge in long-term Treasury yields is stifling world markets yet again as Federal Reserve officials hang tough on one more rate rise, some $134 billion of new government debt sales hit this week and a government shutdown looms.

      The yield spike has supercharged the U.S. dollar worldwide – both a reflection and aggravator of mounting financial stress far and wide.

      Despite wariness of Bank of Japan intervention, the dollar/yen exchange rate hit its highest for the year on Tuesday – as did the dollar’s DXY (.DXY) index and the dollar’s rate against the South Korea’s won . Sterling hit a 6-month low.

      Treasury tremors continue to reverberate from last week’s upgraded Fed forecasts, its insistence on signalling one more rate rise in the current tightening cycle and an uncompromising ‘higher-for-longer’ mantra.

      Short term Fed futures haven’t moved much. All the action is in longer-dated U.S. Treasuries, which may now be repricing the economy’s resilience over multiple years and more persistent inflation pressures.

      Ten-year Treasury yields , which have added a whopping 25 basis points in just a week, hit another 16-year high at 4.5660% early on Tuesday. As Deutsche Bank notes, this is historically significant territory as the average of the 10-year yield going back to 1799 is around 4.50%.

      Thirty-year bond yields , meantime, have jumped over 30bp in a week to a 12-year high of 4.6840%.

      And as an indication of how the long-term sustainable interest rate structure as whole is being re-thought, the 10-year real, inflation-adjusted yield has also leaped 26bp to 2.20% – its highest since 2009.

      Significantly, this is shifting the deeply-inverted 2-to-10 year yield gap – which has for more than a year indicated recession ahead but which now looks to be closing that negative spread to its smallest since May.

      The latest wobble – which has seen exchange-traded funds in U.S. Treasuries deepen year-to-date losses to more than 6% and losses over three years to more than 20% – comes as another heavy supply of new paper goes up for auction this week.

      The Treasury sells $48 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $49 billion in five-year paper on Wednesday and $37 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.
      …

      1. the 10-year real, inflation-adjusted yield has also leaped 26bp to 2.20%

        Alas, if the official CPI were realistic. If it is double the headline numbers, yield is still negative.

  18. A reader sent these in:

    “Goethe wisely said, “in the general throng, many a fool receives decorations and titles.”- Stefan Zweig

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1704986731873972361

    My 2024 monthly health insurance (pre subsidy) going up 18% for me, my spouse and 2 of the kids. Almost $4k a month now, that’s all…over 2 times my mortgage payment. (Silver level PPO for those that are curious)

    https://twitter.com/DarkfireCapital/status/1705739906885243080

    One minute I’m told that high migration is having a very minimal impact on the property market. Next minute its one of the major driving forces behind market demand. How these two narratives exist at times side by side is really something.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1706106514904338516

    ‘Pregnant couple forced to live in tent in Darwin as NT rents continue to rise, pricing renters out of market’

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1705860058511458655

    Transports, semis, home builders and durables are all rolling over at the same time. These industries tend to lead the economy. Worth watching this to see if it continues👀

    https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1705238231757807933

    It seems property investors, it’s peripheral beneficiaries and those that comment on it believe this asset class should be risk free and afforded support no other investment could even dream of.

    https://twitter.com/IFM_Economist/status/1704810073401471309

    Translation: “We messed up and will now blame factors allegedly outside our control which tie our hands, providing an excuse for future mistakes.”

    https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1706299575470862699

    BK filings have recently reached levels on par with the 2008 Great Recession and the 2020 period of time.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1706224601942913291

    FED’S WALL OF WORRY: GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, UAW STRIKE, STUDENT LOAN REPAYMENTS AND $90 OIL (Fox Business)

    Just when Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell thought he was making strides in managing inflation, he’s now facing a five-point threat to the economy at the very least.

    “It’s the strike, it’s the government shutdown, resumption of student loan payments, higher long-term rates, oil price shock. You know, there are a lot of things that you can look at … so what we try to do is assess all of them and handicap all of them,” Powell said during his press conference last week.

    “And, ultimately, though, there’s so much uncertainty around these things.”

    https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1706152274194465066

    San Francisco has a vacancy rate of 31.6% for its office market — a record-high. It is trending worse. 🚨🚨🚨

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1706131850270212496

    You know “excess savings” narrative dying on vine when Fed capitulates. “Americans outside wealthiest 20% of the country have run out of extra savings and now have less cash on hand than they did when pandemic began, according to latest Fed study of household finances”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1706336549070331922

    1. a fool receives decorations and titles

      Janet Yellon, Global Citizen award by the Atlantic Council. I hope people are noticing.

    2. “A reader sent these in:”

      – Great posts, as usual! Thanks Ben!

      “FED’S WALL OF WORRY: GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, UAW STRIKE, STUDENT LOAN REPAYMENTS AND $90 OIL (Fox Business)”

      “Just when Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell thought he was making strides in managing inflation, he’s now facing a five-point threat to the economy at the very least.”

      – People, the Fed is purposefully tanking the eCONomy in their attempts to reduce the inflation that they caused. The government shutdown is just more Kabuki theater, but with current record debt levels Congress is limited in responses.

      – The Fed always breaks something at this point in the rate hike cycle.

      – “Higher for longer” is done. Yield curve is re-steepening. Something wicked this way comes. They’ll be cutting soon…

      – The Everything Bubble: Easy $ on the way up. Now tightening. What happens next? Housing, stonks, bonds, etc. Pretty much everything is tanking, all due to government (including Fed) policies. It’s almost like they hate us or something to have everyone endure the collapse of yet another asset bubble. This is the biggest one yet. “The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.”

      – The Fed: The arsonists in charge of the fire brigade.

    1. Covid vaccines are poison.

      Go tell ten people you know, today, in person, text, on the phone, that covid vaccines are deadly poison.

      F* the social media gatekeepers, bypass all of that and tell ten people now, help save more lives.

    2. Not disinformation, and not a lie. The effectiveness numbers are different because they were measuring different things:

      different variants
      different time periods after the shot
      initial shots vs. boosters shots
      symptoms vs. hospitalization
      different age groups
      different vaccines
      different testing methods or different sample sizes
      etc.

      I guess you were all expecting a single shot to be 100% effective for everyone against everything, forever. Sorry folks, science is hard.

      1. Sorry folks, science is hard.

        Not really missy. It may require hard work to discover, but the method is clear. What we’ve had is “science” for hire, and that is hard on the gullible and the honest.

      2. I was just expecting them to be somewhat effective and not kill lots of people.

        And yes, science is hard. Which is why things should not be rushed or kludged, whether they be jabs or airliners. And let us not forget that when the MAXs began falling out of the sky we were initially told it was an aberration. Then we learned that quite a few other flights almost crashed, and in the end it was grounded.

        Almost three years later we are still being told the jab is safe and effective: get your booster now!

    1. “In 2022, Gaige Grosskreutz, who testified against Rittenhouse, filed a secret petition to change his legal name over death threats from right-wing radicals.”

      Right-wing radicals? What a joke.

      Kyle Rittenhouse is a true American hero. We forgive him for only scoring 2-1/2 out of 3 commies.

      1. Rittenhouse was not out “scoring commies.” He was defending himself from people who were attacking him with perceived deadly force.

          1. Rakeita Law! I got lucky and tuned in to the RL stream the very moment they read the verdict. That was a satisfying moment.

      1. I streamed the Tucker Carlson and Larry Sinclair podcast a week ago while driving. These Obamas sure are a box of Froot Loops.

    1. if the cops are going to go against citizens, then those citizens might decide that the cops are not on their side. (I know, but it could happen) and might decide that the law no longer exists. MIght lead to bad things. Gosh I sure hope those cops don’t go against the citizens in favor of the invaders.

      oh darn.

  30. China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf Arabs are all dumping U.S. Treasuries as the Fed & Brandon regime hurtle us down the road to Venezuela del Norte. Who is going to fund U.S. spending deficits that are going parabolic, when bond yields are being outpaced by inflation far in excess of what our Soviet-style CPI stats say it is?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-year-treasury-yield-heads-for-record-high-of-almost-4-9-a46e0f39?mod=mw_latestnews

    1. “We are in an information war with this international clique of tyrants. They have control over:

      – Movies
      – Television
      – Newspapers
      – Radio
      – Much of social media
      – Banking
      – Most local, state, and federal institutions

      Defeating them is no small task, but it’s not impossible. We must dispute and reject their various propaganda push campaigns through posting of research and facts, directly challenging their claims.”

      Sounds about right. I tell everyone I know that I read the New York Times and Washington Post daily, and know to believe the opposite of whatever narrative du jour they are selling.

  32. ‘A buyer I worked with this month with a budget of $700,000 would have been qualified at $1.2M at the peak but the price of the properties we’re looking at have perhaps adjusted all of 10%’

    So credit is eroding faster than prices fall. It’s almost like these lenders don’t want to make igloo loans.

    1. 20% down deals closing today will be underwater in most places in 18 months or less. I think most lenders are starting to get that. Had some time to do some research this morning. Current listings in the area I’m at are close to 2021 levels….and not selling. I don’t think we’re gonna have to wait too long to see all the pandemic gains erased. And then it’s down from there.

  33. Some prior United Nations higher up was exposing what is pretty clear already.

    He said,
    -United Nations and WEF controlled by Oligarchs.
    -It was a total accident that Trump got in and Hilary was suppose to get in and advance New World Order agenda by 2020.
    -The UN whistleblower said the Oligarchy is riddled with sexual predators and 8 million children a year go missing in child trafficking.
    -The UN 2030 sustainable earth agenda was set back by the election of Trump, but they are on a timeline to achieve this takeover by 2030.
    Its pretty clear that everything is corrupt and fraudulent and the Governments have been highjacked by a power grab by a anti humanity Cult of mafia like goons and perverts.

        1. Looks to me like the Russians picked their spots and dug in really well. Must be the best castle ever built. The Uknazis can’t crack the nut anywhere along the line. It’s been four months of “Offensive”. Russia has already won. It’s only a question of how many from the west will die before they quit.

    1. Polling of the state captures their influence. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey released earlier in September found Trump dominating the large field with about 55 percent of the vote and DeSantis dropping to 16 percent — down about half from where he stood earlier in the year. Madrid contends even during that DeSantis high-water mark, there was never data suggesting a lane for anyone but Trump. Madrid estimates half of DeSantis’ support was a true base and the other half voters who thought Trump might exit the race entirely.

      “It was not an anti-Trump vote, and that defines DeSantis’ collapse,” he said. “Half of his base was never really with him. And now it’s gone.”

      1. I’m not burning my bridges to DeSantis just yet. If something happens to Trump — let’s be honest, he’s no spring chicken himself — Big D will have to be the savior.

  37. ‘For sellers used to holding all the power it’s a new world. Having your house take longer than a week to sell, having to be patient, having to negotiate rather than simply relying on buyer competition to do the heavy lifting, contending with conditions — it’s all basically foreign at this point’

    I should come up with a word for this. We just saw the entire GTA take a mass a$$ pounding starting the spring of last year. Crazy dead cat bounce, and we’re back to crater. And they talk like none of that happened. They’ll say, what happened in the states in 2008 didn’t happen here. Australia too. That’s some BS and I’ve got the blog roles to prove it.

    1. 2008 didn’t happen here

      Well something happened. They’ve stretched the known limits of debt burden for one thing.

  38. ‘Throw out the lowest number that they won’t be insulted by, say you need this much time to execute, and you’re getting answers of, ‘Huh, let us think about that.’ It’s a painful period, but opportunities are starting to emerge’

    That’s the spirit Matt, watch them sweat, hold out the exit.

    1. DOW 30 -1.14%
      S&P 500 -1.47%
      NASDAQ 100 -1.51%

      The S&P 500 is headed for a new all-time high in 2024 as the Fed pivots and stocks enter a Goldilocks no-recession scenario, JPMorgan wealth strategist says
      Jennifer Sor
      Sep 26, 2023, 10:54 AM PDT
      happy trader nyse
      The S&P 500 hitting a new record high implies at least a 12% rally from current levels. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

      – The S&P 500 is set to notch a new all-time high by mid-2024, according to a JPMorgan strategist.

      – That’s as the Federal Reserve is likely done with rate hikes, AJ Oden told CNBC.

      – A new S&P 500 record implies at least a 12% increase from current levels.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-rally-all-time-high-fed-jpmorgan-2023-9

    3. Would Wall Street firms be trying to offload stocks if they truly thought now was a good time to buy?

      Someone’s a lion…

      1. MarketWatch
        Home
        Markets
        Market Extra
        Treasury’s ‘weird’ security approaches 5% yield, signaling 10-year rate may too
        Last Updated: Sept. 26, 2023 at 4:13 p.m. ET
        First Published: Sept. 26, 2023 at 2:54 p.m. ET
        By Vivien Lou Chen
        Nestled between the benchmark 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year bond is a security which rarely draws much mention: the 20-year, which was reintroduced by the U.S. government in May 2020.

        The rate on the 20-year bond rose to 4.875% as of 3 p.m. New York time on Tuesday, up from Monday’s close of 4.847%, according to Tradeweb. That’s the highest level since its reintroduction, turning the 20-year yield into the first long-term Treasury rate to approach the 5% mark.
        …

    5. Bear Steepening Raises Red Flags for Stock Market Investors
      Alfonso Peccatiello | Sep 25, 2023 03:50AM ET

      There is a rare and powerful trend occurring in bond markets.

      History shows that if left unchecked, it can cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy.

      Over the last 3 months, US bond markets have been in an aggressive and prolonged period of bear steepening of the yield curve.
      …
      https://m.investing.com/analysis/bear-steepening-raises-red-flags-for-stock-market-investors-200642111

  40. Helen Jeong’s most prosperous year as a real estate agent occurred in 2020, when five sales generated the most cash she had seen in her 17 years in the business.

    That’s a sale every two months.But assuming that the average sale was $1,000,000 then she (and her broker) made a cool $30,000 per sale. Times five and that’s $150,000. Not bad while the getting is good.

  41. Jaime Velarde, owner of Rapid-o Signs in Santa Fe Springs, said the phones stopped ringing at his ‘for sale’ and ‘open house’ sign business in 2022. This has been Rapid-o Signs’ worst year for sales since the business opened in 1999. ‘Yeah, we’re in trouble,’ Velarde said. ‘Every year was pretty consistent before that.’

    A business that only makes signs for used house sellers? Those were fat times! Now it’s time to sell the RV, the boat, the motorcycles, etc. And the lease on the Lexus can’t end soon enough.

  42. Ok, more and more chatter that they are going to role out Michelle Obama as the Democrate President candidate for 2024.
    I Predicted this a while back .
    My objection is that the Obamas are fraudsters as to the sex of Michael, who is a tranny. The public is entitled to know what they are electing, and a man parading as a women , who is still carrying his junk, is a fraud , as many frauds in the current insane world are.

    1. Bannon was largely responsible for depriving HRC of “her turn” as President. As I’ve previously noted, he now consistently refers to Michelle Obama as Big Mike. He also shot across the bow yesterday regarding Kevin McCarthy’s “personal problems” back in 2015.

        1. “There’s no mention of the other major factor that may have contributed to the abrupt end of his campaign to be speaker: the rumor the he had an affair with then-congresswoman Renee Ellmers.”

  43. Does it seem like market adjustment to “higher for longer” has shifted from long-term Treasurys to equities?

    1. 3 Reasons The Fed Is Wrong And It’s A Good Time To Buy Treasuries
      FacebookTwitterLinkedIn
      JED GRAHAM 08:00 AM ET 09/25/2023

      The Federal Reserve interest-rate forecast issued last week was more hawkish than almost anyone imagined. Despite what chair Jerome Powell acknowledged as three straight good inflation reports, policymakers now expect to hold their key rate a half-percent higher through 2024 than they envisioned in June.

      With the Fed still indicating one more hike is likely coming this year, policymakers are forecasting that over the next 15 months they’ll cut the federal funds rate by just one quarter-point from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

      The purported reason is the economy’s recent surprising strength. Even with short-term rates above 5%, the Fed is making a case that the labor market and inflation will only slow very gradually.

      Here’s why the Fed is wrong and it’s a good bet that both the federal funds rate and market-based Treasury yields will come down much faster than expected. Short-term Treasuries up to two years, which are more closely linked to Fed policy, look especially attractive.

      The 10-year Treasury yield is up 6 basis points to a new 15-year high of 4.5% on Monday, while the 2-year Treasury yield is little changed at 5.11%. As the Fed shifts to rate-cutting the inverted yield curve — with short-term rates above long-term rates — should normalize. That means the two-year yield has further to fall. Plus, the longer-term U.S. debt outlook could limit the downside for 10-year Treasury yields.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-3-reasons-the-fed-is-wrong-and-its-a-good-time-to-buy-treasuries/

    2. DOW 30 -1.14%
      S&P 500 -1.47%
      NASDAQ 100 -1.51%

      Stocks are ‘pretty overvalued’ – and a recession is likely to hit in the next 9 months, says billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach
      Theron Mohamed
      Sep 22, 2023, 3:33 AM PDT
      Jeffrey Gundlach is CEO of DoubleLine Capital. Jessica Rinaldi/Reuters

      – Jeffrey Gundlach says stocks look expensive and he expects a recession in the first half of 2024.

      – The billionaire investor noted stocks have grown less and less appealing relative to bonds.

      – Government overspending could lead to an inflationary recession or “stagflation,” Gundlach said.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-gundlach-doubleline-economy-recession-fed-rates-inflation-2023-9

    3. Business
      Stock market today: Asian shares mostly lower after Wall Street retreat deepens
      By ELAINE KURTENBACH
      Updated 9:44 PM PDT, September 26, 2023

      TOKYO (AP) — Shares in Asia were mostly lower on Wednesday after Wall Street’s ugly September got even worse, with benchmarks dropping back to where they were in June.

      Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.4% to 32,192.94. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 0.7% to 17,585.27. The Shanghai Composite index added 0.3% to 3,112.54.

      In China, concerns continued over heavily indebted real estate developer Evergrande. The property market crisis there is dragging on China’s economic growth and raising worries about financial instability.
      …
      https://apnews.com/article/stock-market-shutdown-uaw-china-393e2065fb9176368ef7d6c0efc5ab63

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