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Some Housing Investors To Offload Condos Because Of The Financial Strain

A report from the Real Deal. “For just under $22 million, a pocket-minded buyer in New York can get a free beach club membership, a boat and a Tesla. They’ll just need to buy a $2.8 million Red Hook townhouse for the car, a $12 million waterfront home in Water Mill that comes with a boat, and a $6.5 million beach-adjacent home in Montauk offering a Gurney’s membership. It isn’t exactly bargain hunting, but the combined value of the freebies is somewhere in the realm of $100,000. While the throw-ins at the Montauk and Water Mill listings would have happened regardless of market conditions, Eugene Litvak, the listing agent at 115A King Street in Red Hook, said the addition of a Tesla Model Y was intended to get buyers to look past high interest rates. ‘If somebody comes in at full asking price, let me give away a Tesla. I think it’s going to make some waves,’ said Litvak, explaining his pitch to the seller.”

Business Insider. “Western mountain towns — with their scenic views and access to outdoor activities — have been growing at a fast clip since before the pandemic. Vail, Colorado, an expensive ski town a little less than 100 miles outside of Denver, could be viewed as a cautionary tale for other budding ski towns. The median sold home price in Vail is $1.1 million as of August, and peaked at $1.97 million in February, according to Realtor.com.”

The Tahoe Daily Tribune. “Traditionally, the onset of colder temperatures tends to coincide with a slowdown in the real estate market. However, in the unique microcosm of Incline Village and Crystal Bay, this has not been the case. Notably, several homes that had been lingering on the market have recently gone pending. For instance, 1061 Lakeshore Blvd., originally listed for $14,500,000, is now listed at $11,500,000 and entered pending status after a total of 656 days. Similarly, 135 Selby, initially listed with a different agent at $11,450,000, is now listed for $9,200,000 and also went pending after a total of 303 days on the market.”

From NBC News. “Tens of millions of Americans with federal student loan debt have had a financial reprieve for more than three years as a pandemic-era repayment pause was extended multiple times since March 2020. Now many face a new reality on Sunday, Oct. 1.Keith Kruchten, 40, Rockford, Ill. Expected monthly payment: $375. Trade-offs: Keeping a 21-year-old car, putting off housing repairs, skipping activities with his two children. ‘Like most folks, I’m about $500 underwater every month when all the bills are paid. So, it gets stacked onto the credit cards,’ he said. ‘I’m 40 now and have no significant retirement savings and feel like I’ve done everything that you’re supposed to do along the way, that we’re taught as kids.’ Kruchten, who works as an operations manager and is a board member of Rockford Promise, an organization that aims to send public school students to college tuition-free, said he plans to soon decide ‘which house repair gets delayed another month.'”

From Bisnow. “Build-to-rent gained significant momentum over the last three years as rising prices forced would-be homeowners to remain renters. ‘Even though they have the capital and they could outbid many people buying these homes, it becomes whether they can buy it at the price point that makes sense for their algorithm,’ said Craig Torrance, CEO of MCS, a national provider of residential and commercial property services. ‘The competitiveness in the market is going to be driven by the appreciation of these assets, and at which point does it just not make sense?’ ‘They’re usually afterthoughts in the back of a community,’ Mark Wolf, CEO of AHV Communities said of the properties acquired from homebuilders in existing developments. ‘If they were the best houses they had, they’d sell them to the public market at a higher price.'”

The Wall Street Journal. “Many of the cranes crowding skylines from Phoenix to Denver and Dallas will soon come down. They are likely to stay down for a long time. The number of new apartments starting development has fallen dramatically this year, a consequence of higher interest rates, declining rents and what in some places looks like overbuilding. Falling starts come on the heels of record apartment construction across the U.S. More rental buildings are expected to open this year and next than at any time since the 1980s, according to some forecasts. That crush of new rental supply is driving up apartment vacancies and causing rent growth to flatten or even turn negative in some places.”

“‘In the Dallas metro area, where new construction has also tumbled, developers that expanded to untested neighborhoods are pulling back. ‘The primary example is [far] on the north side where, frankly, you’re getting close to Oklahoma at that point,’ said Greg Willett, first vice president at Institutional Property Advisors.”

The North Bay Business Journal in California. “Two months after construction halted on what was set to be Windsor’s largest housing project in decades because of ‘evolving economic issues,’ the 14-year effort to redevelop a former mobile home park is back with a new development team and a much different project. The housing portion, most recently called Vintage Oaks on the Town Green, was approved seven years ago for 387 units in three- and four-story buildings on 18.4 acres. Demolition and grading started last year, with plans to build 120 units in the first of three phases. But work stopped in July because that project was no longer economically viable, the Business Journal reported.”

“Eric Higuchi, co-founder of 330 Land Company LLC, the new developer, declined to comment Friday on the economics behind the project change. He did, however, note such reasons in his letter to the town. ‘Due to rising interest rates, the development of new multifamily communities, in nearly all California markets, is presently not economically viable,’ Higuchi wrote.”

From Bloomberg. “Office prices in the US are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey. About two-thirds of the 919 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the US office market will only rebound after a severe collapse. An even greater majority says that US commercial real estate prices won’t hit bottom until the second half of 2024 or later. But lenders looking to offload their exposure now are finding few palatable options, because there aren’t many buyers convinced the market is close to a bottom. ‘Nobody wants to sell at a huge loss,’ said Lea Overby, an analyst at Barclays Plc. ‘These are properties that don’t need to be sold for long periods of time, and that means holders are likely to delay a sale as long as they can.'”

From Reuters. “The U.S. bond market is calling a moment: the age of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis has ended. What follows is unclear. The market’s view has come into sharp focus in recent days amid a dramatic run-up in 10-year Treasury yields that hit 16-year highs. ‘We have moved into a new era here,’ said Greg Whiteley, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine. ‘It’s not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. It’s going to be working to keep it down.'”

The Canadian Press. “With interest rates increasingly expected to stay higher for longer, many of the homeowners who locked in low rates years ago are likely bracing themselves for financial pain as their mortgage comes up for renewal. Borrowers with variable rates but fixed monthly payments will face the greatest increases ahead as some have had their payments only cover the interest costs, or not even that. People with these products face an expected 44 per cent average rise in payments by 2026 as their mortgages reset. More than 46 per cent of Canadian mortgages had payment schedules longer than 25 years as of the second quarter, according to the Bank of Canada, an amount that’s been steadily rising from around 32 per cent in the summer of 2020. Many mortgage amortizations at Canada’s biggest banks now stretch past 30 years, from 24 per cent of mortgages at RBC to 30 per cent at BMO, with the vast majority going beyond 35 years. CIBC and TD Bank fall somewhere in between those two.”

“Meaghan Hastings, chief executive of The Mortgage Coach brokerage, said she’s heard from clients who are surprised to learn just how high interest rates have climbed, especially since they have to pass the mortgage stress test if they want to switch lenders. The test is pushing more borrowers into the alternative lending market, she said. Hastings said she does expect some housing investors to offload some condos because of the financial strain, but that overall, most homeowners will do what it takes to hold on to their property, whether it’s selling their car, taking a job or whatever else they can figure out. ‘Canadians in general will do really anything possible to keep their home. We love being homeowners.'”

Domain News in Australia. “Sydney’s property market is picking up overall, but the median unit price in some suburbs is lower than it was five years ago. In neighbourhoods where new apartment development has outpaced demand, prices have come under pressure, Domain figures show. The steepest fall was in Rushcutters Bay, where the median unit price over the year to June was $690,000, down 19.4 per cent from five years earlier. The harbourfront neighbourhood includes a significant stock of smaller, studio or one-bedroom units, and their growth prospects can be limited.”

“It was followed by Chippendale (down 19.2 per cent in five years to a median of $727,500) and Blacktown (down 18.9 per cent to $430,000). Eastgardens, Harris Park, Eastwood, Rosehill, Wiley Park and Rosebery recorded falls of 16 per cent or deeper. Buyer’s agent Rich Harvey said many neighbourhoods on the list were affected by a high supply of apartments either within the suburb or nearby, such as Harris Park, Rosehill, Merrylands and Granville. Competition for rentals was not as strong as elsewhere, he said. ‘I would say to any buyer, you really need to have a clear understanding of the volume of new developments coming into these areas,’ he said. ‘If there’s going to be 1000 apartments built or 2000 apartments built – which could be built with the new densities – that has an immediate dilution effect on the price of your property.'”

South China Morning Post. “People who had agreed to buy homes at a residential complex under construction in downtown Shanghai have expressed dismay at the pace of the development, which resumed a month ago, raising the prospect of a boycott on mortgage payments that threatens to worsen sentiment in China’s embattled property sector. Since August 31, only a handful of workers have been conducting building work at The One-Rivera Shanghai, a project led by Shanghai Dongying Real Estate and located on Puyi Road in Pudong, according to two buyers who signed home purchase contracts and declined to be identified.”

“One buyer said the cash-strapped developer did not appear close to completing the project, and the recent resumption of development work looked ‘half-hearted’ – likely a temporary measure to soothe outside concerns. No heavy equipment or workers were seen at the construction site when this reporter visited on Sunday during China’s week-long National Day holiday. Construction had stalled at The One-Rivera Shanghai, which consists of about 300 flats in two buildings, after a liquidity crunch hit Dongying in early 2022. Homeowners in the first building were supposed to get their keys by March 12, 2022, while the second lot was set to delivered on December 10, 2022, according to the buying contracts.”

“Located within Shanghai’s Inner Ring Road, an elevated expressway loop, The One-Rivera offered flats at about 110,000 yuan (US$15,080) per square metre, with prices ranging from 15 million yuan to more than 30 million yuan. Homebuyers interviewed by the Post in late September declined to say if or when they would stop repaying mortgage loans. ‘A mortgage boycott is likely because delivery of the expensive homes has been delayed for more than 500 days, which has already infuriated buyers,’ said Yin Ran, an angel and property investor in Shanghai. ‘Given that the developer is stuck in a liquidity crisis, it is difficult to see a happy ending to the drama any time soon.'”

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This Post Has 103 Comments

  1. ‘They’re usually afterthoughts in the back of a community,’ Mark Wolf, CEO of AHV Communities said of the properties acquired from homebuilders in existing developments. ‘If they were the best houses they had, they’d sell them to the public market at a higher price’

    Yer on to something there Mark.

  3. ‘In the Dallas metro area, where new construction has also tumbled, developers that expanded to untested neighborhoods are pulling back. ‘The primary example is [far] on the north side where, frankly, you’re getting close to Oklahoma at that point’

    I’ve been saying that for years Greg. And what’s on the other side of the Red River? Prairie and cow pastures as far as you can see. It’s not a long drive though. There’s some good cat fish eatin’ up there, casinos too.

    2. It’s California. She would have won in a landslide if faced with an election.

      The people have spoken.

  5. ‘Nobody wants to sell at a huge loss…These are properties that don’t need to be sold for long periods of time, and that means holders are likely to delay a sale as long as they can’

    Hold yer ground Lea, don’t give it away!

  6. ‘The U.S. bond market is calling a moment: the age of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis has ended. What follows is unclear. The market’s view has come into sharp focus in recent days amid a dramatic run-up in 10-year Treasury yields that hit 16-year highs. ‘We have moved into a new era here…It’s not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. It’s going to be working to keep it down’

    Wa is gonna happen to my rate daters Greg?

  7. “If somebody comes in at full asking price, let me give away a Tesla. I think it’s going to make some waves,’ said Litvak, explaining his pitch to the seller.”

    Here’s a better idea. Just knock 50K off the price so I don’t have to finance a Tesla for the next 30 years. 🙄 People who fall for incentives deserve their a$$ poundings.

    1. *” Knock off 50k .. finance a Tesla 30 years ”

      I also was perplexed about that ridiculous sleight of hand sellers/realtors played during the last housing recession in 2008? then I realized that so many entities are relying on the final. selling. price.
      no matter what kind of trickery to keep it high, keep it high they must to justify so many schemes.

    3. $22 million to get $100K in freebies. That’s less than one half of one percent. My guess is most people with $22 million (or their advisors) can do math better than that, even in this stupid bubble.

    4. I guess Tesla is the new signature toy of the rich. In 2008 they were giving out Jags or Porsches.

      I don’t want Tesla’s bells and whistles, or caché. I want 450 miles in under 10 minutes, with ubiquitous chargers that I don’t need to search for.

    1. Stock Market Today: Stocks dip, Treasury yields rise on new shutdown, rate hike risks
      Stocks will struggle to shake-off the concerns that triggered a big third quarter decline, with Treasury yields back on the march following a temporary deal to avert a government shutdown in Washington.
      Martin Baccardax
      3 hours ago
      Updated at 8:27 am EDT

      U.S. equity futures edged lower Monday, following on from the worst quarterly performance of the year for the S&P 500, as Treasury bond yields inched higher as investors react to a temporary U.S. government funding deal set against central bank messaging for higher long-term interest rates.

      House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was able to push through a bipartisan deal over the weekend, with the support of 209 Democratic lawmakers, that will fund the government through November 17. The deal, however, leaves open the possibility of yet another shutdown drama as conservative lawmakers in the Republican party vowed to challenge McCarthy’s position and push for deeper spending cuts in the next round of talks.

      “To be absolutely clear, the spending battle for fiscal 2024 is far from over, and a shutdown on November 18 is entirely possible,” said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The right wing in the House is just too big to ignore, but their demands cannot be met, given Democrat control of the Senate and White House.”
      …
      https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/stock-market-today-stocks-dip-treasury-yields-rise-on-new-shutdown-risk

      1. I guess you mean BTC at $27000.

        Looks like the 45-day CR is not really affecting the markets today. Short-term CRs are old hat by now. Anyone figure out why gold is crashing?

        1. gold is crashing?

          Looks like somebody is selling Au to get some $$$. Maybe they were gambling while in debt.

          $$$ going up faster than Au going down.

    3. Does using your initials instead of your actual name make you one of the kool krypto kidz?

    4. 60 Minutes – Newsmakers
      FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s rise and fall at center of new Michael Lewis book “Going Infinite”
      By Jon Wertheim
      October 1, 2023 / 6:56 PM / CBS News

      Michael Lewis has made a literary career finding jump-off-the-page characters, and using them to help tell complicated stories. And what could be more complicated than explaining cryptocurrency? Lewis gained all-hours access to Sam Bankman-Fried, known for a time, as the J.P. Morgan of crypto. His sector as ungoverned as his hair, Bankman-Fried was worth more than $20 billion before he turned 30…an unlikely celebrity, his life braided finance, politics, sports and pop culture. Then the empire crumbled and today, Bankman-Fried sits in jail on various federal charges and faces potential sentences of more than 100 years. Lewis, though, didn’t panic-sell. He simply went where the story took him. His latest book, “Going Infinite” comes out Tuesday…. which is also the opening day in the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried.

      Jon Wertheim: You had so much access to Sam Bankman-Fried writing this book. What ultimately is– is the purpose here?

      Michael Lewis: I realized I had an ambition for the book. I saw it as kind of letter to the jury. I mean there’s gonna be this trial. And the lawyers are gonna tell two stories. And so– there’s a story war going on in the courtroom. And I think neither one of those stories is as good as the story I have.

      Michael Lewis didn’t set out to write this book. Two autumns ago, he was at home in the Bay Area when he got a call from a friend, interested in investing with a young billionaire. Could Lewis meet with this wunderkind and size him up ….So it was, Lewis brought Sam Bankman-Fried here, in the Berkeley Hills, for a hike in the park.
      …
      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-michael-lewis-book-60-minutes-transcript/

      1. “Michael Lewis: In the beginning, especially, it’s a crowd of people who are incredibly mistrustful of institutions. What attracts them to it is they hate the government. They hate banks. But then they somehow– this pool of incredibly mistrustful people proceed to trust each other in ways that I wouldn’t trust you.”

    5. Anna Wintour’s people told Bankman-Fried he would ‘never step foot in fashion’ after he blew off the Met Gala
      The “Vogue” editor isn’t the only person the former CEO of FTX blew off during his reign as crypto wunderkind, according to an excerpt of Michael Lewis’s new book.
      BY BEN WEISS
      October 02, 2023 11:36 AM EDT
      Anna Wintour attends a fashion show in Paris in 2023. Gamma-Rapho—Getty Images

      Sam Bankman-Fried is no fashionista. His crypto billionaire uniform was a wrinkled T-shirt and baggy cargo shorts, and his attire as an alleged crypto criminal is an ill-fitting suit.

      However, during his reign as crypto wunderkind, when celebrities, magazines, and former leaders of the free world courted him every step of the way, not even the queen of fashion and editor of Vogue, Anna Wintour, could resist someone with no concern for his clothing. Well, that’s until Bankman-Fried blew her off.

      In an excerpt of his forthcoming chronicle of Bankman-Fried’s rise and fall, Michael Lewis, who has published blockbuster hits like The Big Short and Moneyball, details how Bankman-Fried entertained Wintour’s invite to the Met Gala, arguably the most watched fashion event of the year, only to, like so many of his other commitments, not show up.

      On Valentine’s Day in 2022, amid a tour of Los Angeles and meal after meal with celebrities like Shaquille O’Neil and Orlando Bloom, the high priestess of fashion pitched Bankman-Fried on coming to and sponsoring the gala.

      The former CEO of FTX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges before it suddenly went bankrupt almost a year ago, nodded along with repeated “yup”s as Wintour spoke over Zoom, but most of the time, he played his favorite video game, Storybook Brawl.

      Given the impression that Bankman-Fried’s distracted nods were a yes to her invite and requests for a sponsorship, Wintour “warmly,” writes Lewis, ended the conversation. But the FTX cofounder was unconvinced. “I would have to think hard if this is a thing I want to go to,” he said shortly after the call was over.

      Bankman-Fried’s team, though, planned as if he were going to the fashion event of the year, sounding out Louis Vuitton to see whether it was possible to design a couture version of Bankman-Fried’s T-shirt-and-cargo-pants uniform and paying Tom Ford to design an outfit replete with $65,000 cufflinks.

      Inevitably, however, Bankman-Fried backed out of the gala, and as opposed to the polite notes of understanding from the many other celebrities he’s bailed on, Wintour’s team was outraged. “They called and shouted and said Sam will never set foot in fashion again!” the former head of public relations at FTX told Lewis.
      …
      https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/10/02/anna-wintour-vogue-sam-bankman-fried-sbf-ftx-michael-lewis-going-infinite-met-gala/

  10. Trends
    So Much for the Federal Reserve: Mortgage Rates Hit a High Not Seen Since 2000
    By Margaret Heidenry
    Sep 29, 2023

    Last week brought hope to the housing market when the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates. Many predicted this would help keep mortgage rates fairly steady.

    But it turns out those predictions were 100% wrong.

    Instead, for the week ending Sept. 28, rates for a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to their highest level since 2000, landing at an average of 7.31%—a substantial jump from last week’s 7.19%, according to Freddie Mac.

    This latest spike in borrowing costs will likely hit today’s already shaky real estate market especially hard.
    …
    https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/mortgage-rates-hit-a-high-not-seen-since-2000-federal-reserve/

    1. “I pull in resolution and begin To doubt th’ equivocation of the fiend That lies like truth.”

      — Shakespeare’s Macbeth

    2. Mortgage Rates Move Up Today Oct. 2, 2023: What Does That Mean for Homebuyers?

      Mortgage interest rates certainly haven’t cooled over the last week, so it’s even more expensive to purchase a home.

      Some key mortgage rates saw an increase over the last seven days. The average interest rates for both 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed mortgage rates crept higher. We also saw an upward trend in the average rate of 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

      In March 2022, the Federal Reserve stepped in to combat surging inflation by hiking its key interest rate. Mortgage rates, which are not set by the central bank but are indirectly influenced by rate hikes, increased alongside. After hiking interest rates 11 times since last year, the Federal Reserve opted to skip another increase during its September meeting. However, the Fed hasn’t ruled out the possibility of additional increases if inflation doesn’t continue to moderate.

      About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.

      While inflation has dropped from its record highs, it’s still above target. That means the Fed could continue to raise rates as it sees fit to increase the cost of borrowing and slow down the economy.

      Progress on inflation and other key economic indicators may ease some of the upward pressure on mortgage rates. But if future inflation data comes in hotter than expected and the Fed chooses to hike rates further, mortgage rates could keep going up in 2023.
      …
      30-year fixed-rate mortgages

      For a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate you’ll pay is 7.74%, which is a growth of 10 basis points from seven days ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) Thirty-year fixed mortgages are the most common loan term. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage will usually have a lower monthly payment than a 15-year one — but typically a higher interest rate. You won’t be able to pay off your house as quickly and you’ll pay more interest over time, but a 30-year fixed mortgage is a good option if you’re looking to minimize your monthly payment.
      …

      1. “Instead, for the week ending Sept. 28, rates for a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to their highest level since 2000, landing at an average of 7.31%—a substantial jump from last week’s 7.19%, according to Freddie Mac.”

        30-year fixed rates in week ending
        Sept. 22 7.19%
        Sept. 29 7.31%
        Oct. 6. 7.74% (So far!)

        Up, up and away
        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UKkNlwpajNk

  11. Home Depot on Santa Fe near Alameda. The homeless are living under the I-25 overpass, and all the illegals (from Venezuela?) are by the entrance driveway to HD waiting to steal jobs from Americans:

    https://ibb.co/ZhZRVCx

    1. One photo says a lot. Get Americans addicted to fentanyl, become homeless, overdose and die. And replace them with the 3rd world who will be docile slave labor.

      Sounds like a globalist success story.

  13. we’re spending our yearly beach week ,at Edisto Beach SC.with our extended family of 16 ..we’ve been doing this for 40 years now , we’ve slowly evolved ,and as our $$$ fortunes improved, we only go nice big beachfront , now , and where we can see the beautiful sunsets ,too, so that’s around the bend some..5K for a house,in late season, that recently resold for 2.8 million bucks , wow,and no maintaince , though this particular house needs it , they get high winds here…
    The interior houses are much ,much cheaper , but don’t pencil out to rent, as people that have some money don’t want to walk …The nearest town is Walterboro SC,of Murdock Trial fame, Maggie Murdock left her interior house here ,and drove the 20 miles that night, to her demise at her husbands’ hands.
    The crime rate is very low here ,in Edisto Beach , The town has a cool camera setup ,where every car, and most of the people in it , are carefully recorded,on the single 2 lane road in,and out and it works…the crims mostly know that. There’s a single large Grocery store here ,think it’s called the ‘piggley Wiggley’, The Gulla locals here are amazingly friendly ,and nice , takes you aback, compared to the Rest of the SC 30% who are right resentful, Also, The party crowd ,and the Canadians ,mostly go to Murtle Beach SC, about a hundred miles up the coast, much colder there ,and rowdy ,too ,

  14. A reader sent these in:

    With rental cost of 2,5% to 3% in major German cities compared to 4% mortgage rates it is still much cheaper to rent than to buy. 10% drop in house prices is not enough to balance the market.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1708033985576603763

    Prices in Munich dropped by 15% but given current mortgage rates it is still much cheaper to rent than to buy. Market is flooded with property for sale. More drops to come.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1707670673609396341

    This made me chuckle this morning. 30% of UK mortgage holders are considering or already have sold their property because they cannot afford it anymore. Given current mortgage rates who is supposed to buy them when they flood the market? Coming to Spain, Italy and Portugal also.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1707276123493572840

    OUCH! German 20y and 30y yields have risen >3%, highest since 2011. The rise in interest rates on long-term bonds has a much higher leverage on economic development than the rise in key ECB rates at the short end.

    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1708384183146443160

    Stress in the financial system is rising: The value of global bonds dropped another $428bn this week as the interest rate world keeps repricing for a higher for longer. In past quarter, bonds lost ~$1.8tn in value and everyone is puzzling over who has the losses on their books.

    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1708070407402602534

    Estimated 11,000 Ontarians have died while waiting for MRI, CT, and surgeries in the past year. 56% of CT, 35% of MRI receive them within target time. Surgical waitlist is >200,000 people. Combined with 37,000 hospital positions remain unfilled.

    https://twitter.com/mrouben/status/1708447245287248144

    A MILLION people rallied in Poland against the ruling party. The organizer of the demonstration was opposition leader Donald Tusk, who once tried to improve relations with Russia. In two weeks the country will hold parliamentary elections. Judging by the footage, it may be difficult for the current Polish elite to stay in power.

    https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1708528928892363127

    Trucking employment is falling off a cliff. Historically, when we see trucking employment declining, that has been an indicator of recession. Although, now that we have changed the definition of “recession” there is no telling where these historical indicators matter. The media has outlawed recessions now.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1708650681484161086

    Canada has given roughly $9 billion dollars to Ukraine as Justin Trudeau said in this speech. Meanwhile regular Canadian citizens are struggling to afford housing and food with massive inflation having driven the cost of living thru the roof in recent years. But that doesn’t matter to Justin. His next proposal is to tax the grocery stores because their prices are too high. 🙄

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1708689018253148589

    Check out this new article from @Fxhedgers which I highly recommend. The government does their headline economic data, the media reports, but then downward revisions later are ignored by the media. “The Real Data is in the Revisions, Not the Headlines”

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1708653527210381740

    US Rents are 1.2% lower than a year ago, the biggest YoY decline since December 2020.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1708493218424209855

    US Bonds are down 15% over the last 3 years, the largest 3-year decline in history.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1708487769452888403

    Pending home sales in the US have moved down to their lowest level since April 2020, a month where much of US economy was shut down. The housing market is frozen.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1707816003835416711

    I will lose $55,000 this year on Real Estate.

    But if you see the twitter bros here talk about their airbnbs, storage units or real estate you’d imagine – buy real estate and passive income falls from the sky.

    So how am I losing it, what does it mean for you and what can you do about it?

    Last month my HOA did a special assessment to improve the roof for $12,000 per unit, I own 3 of them.

    Ouch – not great when I barely make $750 a month per unit.

    Then you have to add on the costs of property taxes which have been rising and tenants constantly having requests (toilet issues, garbage disposal, fan not working, etc…).

    In addition my units were empty for 3 months of the year. (I did try to sell them but had no buyers).

    I wanted to share details since there’s such a fantasy a) landlords always get rich b) real estate is a great investment c) real estate is passive income.

    There MAY be a reason all the twitter real estate bros do many other ventures and sell courses… 🤔

    “BUT Noah – you’re talking cash flow what about appreciation.” Thanks for asking! So my condos were $366,000 that I bought around 2015 and ONLY cause of Covid they are “worth” around $515,000. Yay I made $150k.

    Don’t forget to subtract 20% for capital gains and 6% for realtor fees.

    Sounds great until realize a) they condos didn’t actually sell when I listed them on the market for that much b) it took nearly 8 years to get $150k and c) if I would have taken that same downpayment of $60k – put it into the market 8 years ago it would be at least $148,557.79 today.

    Plus – the stock market is liquid (meaning I can get my money NOW) and there’s 0 overhead cost of dealing with AC repairs, tenants, etc…

    So what does that mean for everyone?

    1- Real estate CAN be very profitable for people with fixed income jobs
    2- 👉Entrepreneurship has WAY better upside AND lower costs 👈
    3- Anyone can do real estate. Think about things you have a COMPETITIVE advantage in.
    4- Don’t believe the numbers and ease of people claiming get rich quick. What’s in it for them?
    5- Opportunity cost. If you’re going to spend 40 hours finding a rental property and dealing with it – what other investments or businesses could you start instead?

    https://twitter.com/noahkagan/status/1708534651424211112

    Car prices HAVE improved (for most brands). Nearly 2X number of cars selling *below* MSRP:

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1708500176212795795

    Nearly 1,500 small businesses filed for Subchapter V bankruptcy this year through Sept. 28, nearly as many as in all of 2022. And 73% of small businesses reported that rising interest rates were having a neg impact on their business

    https://twitter.com/RadicalAdem/status/1708670899250188438

    Another great summary of the coming Canadian housing crash.

    https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1697825742707438027

    Career politician with a $200K salary somehow had $102M worth of property and a $62M jet, can someone explain this

    https://twitter.com/CramerTracker/status/1708611512573604317

    As you can see from the chart below, there will be no housing price collapse. Mortgage rates starting rising 3 years ago and prices have done nothing, flat. Oh damn wait sorry this is a chart of home prices from 2005-2007.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1708543375593636202

    So much economic activity was due to RE bubble which is now bursting. Canada didn’t import millions of engineers or scientists over the last decade. Things are going to get ugly coz 0% rates never returning and not much else going for it economically.

    https://twitter.com/robotboy500/status/1708590708146516222

    The false narrative of “housing shortage” led to not only a speculative mania, but a BUILDER mania. Into the worst US demographics in history.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1708588758248124811

    70% of renters and 50% of mortgage holders have outflows greater than inflows in Australia. Not long now.

    https://twitter.com/matt_barrie/status/1708507312590348700

    The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), which represents dockworkers at ports along the Pacific coast of the United States and Canada, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1708578544853430734

    Maricopa County Arizona (Phoenix) evictions hit highest level since 2008

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1708569739671502967

    Phoenix active listings 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1708572835185365317

    How many took equity out homes in 2020-21, used that money to buy another house, then they turned house 1 or house 2 into an Airbnb? That alone probably explains a majority of the lower inventory. Narrative changes to prices are sliding and these people rush to the exits.

    https://twitter.com/TRichUtah/status/1708560857188442619

    Ontario months of supply where they (the industry scumbags) said there was a permanent home shortage for the next 100 years.

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1708560638820094256

    Barry Sternlicht back on TV crying about capitalism

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1708553726695469450

    Criminals broke into a Toronto home & looted $20k in stuff.
    Neighborhood:
    – B&Es (+30%);
    -robberies (+1000%).
    Police are so backed up it took 2 days to show up. The only people thriving in Ontario are the criminals.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1708537743167435053

    “US Consumer Spending Is Signaling Pain Ahead: Credit Weekly” @markets Really?

    https://twitter.com/rcwhalen/status/1708518700880379949

    Brampton hospital experiences high patient volumes, advises patients seek care elsewhere

    https://twitter.com/CP24/status/1708475884045234633

    BlackRock’s Larry Fink says a lack of hope could cause a U.S. recession

    https://twitter.com/MichaelKantro/status/1708497999486157016

    Great advice here. When builders offer you a lower rate to buy it’s not for the full 30 years of the loan. After year one your mortgage rate starts to rise. By year 3 it’s over. It’s basically a gamble that rates drop within 3 years but you still overpaid for the house.

    https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1708493044931031421

    summer 2024 could be a disaster for AirBNB investors. Seeing considerable market softness in Assachusetts.

    https://twitter.com/franco5312/status/1708521386904367314

    The next couple of years in real estate will be a test of who has access to capital. Deals will be there for the picking, but will there be capital?

    https://twitter.com/fortworthchris/status/1708274229454487928

    The Trudeau Government announced they will now begin regulating podcasts

    https://twitter.com/6ixbuzztv/status/1708247472655528240

    Parents arrested after leaving 1 year old alone in a Nashville short term rental with a loaded Glock pistol, 15 pounds of marijuana, $17k in cash. 🤦‍♀️☹️

    https://twitter.com/jjsheedy/status/1707029773409563058

    When the US economy imploded in 2008…Canada lowered interest rates in lockstep, when we did not need to. This created an unnecessary decade of searing hot housing inflation here. NOW – when Canada implodes, the USA WILL NOT lower interest rates with us. This will cause unimaginable pain.

    https://twitter.com/Tablesalt13/status/1708110211188203871

    Share of homes at risk of a home insurance rate increase or non-renewal in 2023 because of wildfire, wind, or flood 🏡👇

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1708306063026507789

    1. But that doesn’t matter to Justin. His next proposal is to tax the grocery stores because their prices are too high.

      He doesn’t seem too worried about being run out of office.

      1. The Trudeau Government announced they will now begin regulating podcasts

        Freedom of Speech must be eradicated to preserve Democracy®

        1. One-Third of Democrats Think Americans Have ‘Too Much Freedom’ of Speech: Poll

          https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/one-third-of-democrats-think-americans-have-too-much-freedom-of-speech-poll/

          Over a third of Democrats believe that Americans’ speech should be more restricted, according to a recent poll.

          A RealClearPolitics survey released Friday shows that 34 percent of Democrats said Americans have “too much freedom” to speak freely, compared with only 14.6 percent of Republicans who said the same. Republicans were over twice as likely as Democrats to say that Americans have “too little freedom,” with 46 percent stating this compared with only 22 percent of Democrats.

          While 74 percent of Republicans said speech should be legal “under any circumstances,” only a slim majority (53 percent) of Democrats agreed.

          A majority of Democrats also expressed approval for social media censorship. Fifty-two percent said that the government should be free to censor social media posts to protect national security, compared with only a third of Republicans.

          Three-fourths of Democrats said the government “has a responsibility” to limit hate speech and “disinformation” on various platforms, while only 50 percent of Republicans said the same.

          The poll is the most recent survey that shows a partisan divide on the issue of free speech. A Pew Research poll released earlier this year showed that 70 percent of Democrats support the U.S. government restricting false information online, against only 39 percent of Republicans.

          Support for censorship has also translated into action on college campuses, as there have been several recent high-profile incidents of liberal activists shouting down and disrupting events with conservative speakers.

  15. (People are stupid and math be hard.)

    The Truth About A&W’s Third-Pound Burger and the Major Math Mix-Up

    https://awrestaurants.com/blog/aw-third-pound-burger-fractions#:~:text=In%20the%201980s%2C%20then%2Downer,in%20his%20book%2C%20Threshold%20Resistance.

    By now you’ve probably heard the story: once upon a time, A&W Restaurants released a third-pound burger that failed to catch on thanks to a misunderstanding of fractions. Just how accurate is this tale of math mistakes and fraction flubs? Read on for the scoop.

    In the 1980s, then-owner A. Alfred Taubman launched the “Third is the Word” campaign to promote A&W’s new third-pound burgers and compete with another brand’s smaller quarter-pound burger.

    Taubman recounted this example in his book, Threshold Resistance. “We were aggressively marketing a one-third-pound hamburger for the same price…but despite our best efforts, including first-rate TV and radio promotional spots, they just weren’t selling.”

    Confused why A&W’s burgers weren’t able to compete even though the burgers were priced the same as their competitors, Taubuman brought in a market research firm.

    The firm eventually conducted a focus group to discover the truth: participants were concerned about the price of the burger. “Why should we pay the same amount for a third of a pound of meat as we do for a quarter-pound of meat?” they asked.

    It turns out the majority of participants incorrectly believed one-third of a pound was actually smaller than a quarter of a pound.

    Despite the confusion, Taubman took an important lesson from the experience: “Sometimes the messages we send to our customers through marketing and sales information are not as clear and compelling as we think they are.”

      1. How has America survived this long with such a stupid populace?

        People who understand math probably eat less fast food. It’s incredibly unhealthy and if consumed often can lead to long-term health consequences.

    2. Taubman took an important lesson

      Yet he failed to realize that his entire business is aimed at the very bottom intelligence slice of the population.

  16. The Dow and longterm Treasurys are CR8Ring in tandem.

    Wall Street has moved on from “all news is good news” to “all news is bad news.”

    2. Yahoo Finance
      Bloomberg
      Bond Yields Hit Day’s Highs During Powell Event: Markets Wrap
      Cristin Flanagan
      October 2, 2023, 8:37 am

      (Bloomberg) — The rout in US Treasuries intensified as traders looked to Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell for clues on the direction of interest rates.

      Yields on five-year to 20-year Treasuries rose 10 basis points on the day with the 10-year benchmark bond hitting 4.68% during a roundtable discussion with Powell that also included Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. The selloff in global bonds has gathered momentum as the US shutdown reprieve prompted traders to raise bets on a November rate hike from the Fed. They now see a roughly 33% chance of a November move, up from the 25% likelihood priced on Friday.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

  17. From NBC News. “Tens of millions of Americans with federal student loan debt have had a financial reprieve for more than three years as a pandemic-era repayment pause was extended multiple times since March 2020.”

    “Now many face a new reality on Sunday, Oct. 1.Keith Kruchten, 40, Rockford, Ill. Expected monthly payment: $375. Trade-offs: Keeping a 21-year-old car, putting off housing repairs, skipping activities with his two children.”

    ‘Like most folks, I’m about $500 underwater every month when all the bills are paid. So, it gets stacked onto the credit cards,’ he said.

    ‘I’m 40 now and have no significant retirement savings and feel like I’ve done everything that you’re supposed to do along the way, that we’re taught as kids.’

    Kruchten, who works as an operations manager and is a board member of Rockford Promise, an organization that aims to send public school students to college tuition-free, said he plans to soon decide ‘which house repair gets delayed another month.’”

    – A couple of comments. First off, I feel sorry for this guy and his family.

    – 1. So, we’re not like ‘most folks.’ I’m cash flow positive every month. Cars are > then 10 yrs. old, but they’re paid off. No mortgage. No significant debt. Saving ‘cause we live well below our means. Debt is slavery. A mortgage makes sense, but only when the price and (fixed) rate loan are reasonable. Right now mortgage rates are not far from the long term averages, but prices are still at 3% rates, for now. Prices need to drop 40-50% before it gets interesting.

    – This guy is -$500 in the hole every month BEFORE resuming student loan payment. Maybe not the best education here. Christian values are timeless. Also lives in Illinois. THATS A HUGE PROBLEM in and of itself.

    – 2. A house is nice, but it’s a depreciating asset with high carrying costs: P&I, Taxes, Insurance (PITI), HOA/COA dues, maintenance and repair co$ts, etc. Let’s face it, a house can be a money $ pit.

    – 3. There are much bigger systemic problems in the U. S. right now, and in fact they’re global and related. The globalist chucks want you dead and to take your stuff. Solve that first and everything else will take care of itself.

    1. So, we’re not like ‘most folks.’

      I would only add that a man who doesn’t know how to use a budget to look into the future cannot be considered “educated”.

        1. Black magic fairies (like your new Senator) have no need for budgets. 😉

          We can’t even get them to dress properly anymore. Doing budgets is going to be a stretch.

          2. And as many predicted, the appointed replacement is far worse then Feinstein.

            Will the three pre death candidates still run next year in the primary, or is Lafawnda the permanent choice, at least until the Hispanics decide they have had enough?

  18. The Foundation Charity , as in Rockerfeller and Gates Foundations, was a false construct to bribe, extort, and influence.
    Big Pharmacy owning the media by 70% control over advertising dollar, to advance their fraudulent narratives.
    The de-funding by Fauci of any Science that disputed the consensus science, again was deliberate and conflict of interest, to say the least.
    Rigging elections to place puppets for NWO to advance their agenda. Puppets like Biden transferring power to WHO, by Treaty to override Constitutional protections of US Citizens, for Climate Change and Panademic tyranny dictorship based on fraudulent solutions to contrive global emergencies.
    United Nations 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Earth, which is a blueprint of the unleashing of a unsustainable earth, for human populations for enslavement, deprivation , and a control grid dictorship, and genocide of populations. Withdraw of energy, food, and systems that function for New World Order power grab.
    Divide and conquer humanity by false narratives of racism, critical race theory, equity, communism or Facism , transgender attack on minors, rise of crime, attack on political opposition , attack on family and religion, all to tear down society for the NWO insurrection.
    For God Sakes, creation of bio weapon virus, unleashed on world, than fake solutions of lockdowns, masks, and fake toxic vaccines as solution. Cover up of overwhelming evidence of massive death and injury by new technology expiermental vaccines, fraudulently marketed as “safe and effective.”
    use AI and technology for control grid against humans .
    Invasion of US and other Countries borders for replacement by combatants for NWO.
    Nothing else explains the insanity and fraud that has been unleashed by this warfare by powerful forces against humanity and this earth.

    1. A majority of French adults agree that there should be restrictions on air travel and about 40% think everyone should be limited to 4 trips per life. These losers will welcome their 15 minute cities, freezing houses and bug paste diets.

  19. I know Steve Bannon isn’t most people’s cup of tea, but for those of you wanting to END THE FED and put us back on the gold standard you might want to listen to this (4m14s).

      1. By Executive Order, DJT could put us back on the gold standard and “straightjacket” Capitol Hill.” It’s a start!

        2. Ha ha

          DJT would probably sign an executive order to make 0% the “national interest rate” on everything.

        1. I think the house of cards will have to collapse first, and ours might not be the first one to crater (cough, China, cough).

          But as Adam Smith once said, there is a lot of ruin in a nation. Though with $33T in debt and no relief in sight, we might soon be running out of ruin to spare,.

  20. ‘Even though they have the capital and they could outbid many people buying these homes, it becomes whether they can buy it at the price point that makes sense for their algorithm’

    Jeebus not that again.

  21. ‘the 14-year effort to redevelop a former mobile home park is back with a new development team and a much different project. The housing portion, most recently called Vintage Oaks on the Town Green, was approved seven years ago for 387 units in three- and four-story buildings on 18.4 acres. Demolition and grading started last year, with plans to build 120 units in the first of three phases. But work stopped in July because that project was no longer economically viable’

    The thing about Californians: they really spring into action. The can’t do state.

  22. ‘Borrowers with variable rates but fixed monthly payments will face the greatest increases ahead as some have had their payments only cover the interest costs, or not even that’

    via GIPHY

    1. “…their payments only cover the interest costs, or not even that”

      …aka negative amortization.

  23. ‘Canadians in general will do really anything possible to keep their home. We love being homeowners’

    I’m going to disagree with you there Meaghan. After many years of observing shack markets around they world, monetary concepts like ‘good money after bad’ are universal.

  24. ‘The One-Rivera offered flats at about 110,000 yuan (US$15,080) per square metre, with prices ranging from 15 million yuan to more than 30 million yuan’

    At that price, it’ll be paradise.

    ‘Homebuyers interviewed by the Post in late September declined to say if or when they would stop repaying mortgage loans. ‘A mortgage boycott is likely because delivery of the expensive homes has been delayed for more than 500 days, which has already infuriated buyers…Given that the developer is stuck in a liquidity crisis, it is difficult to see a happy ending to the drama any time soon’

    Bargaining <- Yin you are here.

  25. Egypt elections: Sisi says hunger a price worth paying for country’s progress

    In an unofficial campaign speech, the Egyptian president lashed out at critics and said he could sabotage the country by distributing drugs among the poor

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/egypt-sisi-hunger-price-worth-paying-progress

    Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has said his people should accept the prospect of going hungry as the price of the country’s success. He also bizzarly suggested he could “destroy Egypt” by distributing drugs among impoverished people ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for December.

    In a widely condemned speech aired from his new administrative capital on Saturday, Sisi also called his opponents “liars, saboteurs and wicked”, as critics questioned the billions spent on infrastructure projects that he has undertaken as many Egyptians struggle to make ends meet.

    “Don’t you Egyptians dare say you would rather eat than build and progress,” Sisi said. “If the price of the nation’s progress and prosperity is to go hungry and thirsty, then let us not eat or drink,” he added.

    “Don’t undermine the cause of our nation and make us the world’s laughing stock. Stand fast and transform the cruel circumstances we are going through into a gift. The harder you stand fast, the sooner it [the economic crises] will pass.”

    In a meandering and informal speech, the Egyptian president mentioned hypothetical ways in which he could “destroy” Egypt, if he were so inclined, by distributing pills to foster chaos in the country.

    Sisi said that he spoke with the Supreme Judicial Council regarding how easy the country would be to destroy and had concluded that giving 100,000 people in “difficult circumstances” tramadol, a strong opioid, would do the trick at a cost of no more than $30m.

    “I was chatting to officials from the Supreme Judicial Council this morning and told them: can you imagine that I could destroy Egypt with 2 billion pounds,” he said, during the three day conference dedidcated to presenting the accomplishments of his 9-year rule.

    “They were very surprised…I told them I could give them Tramadol and 20 pounds to 100,000 people who are going through difficult times,” he added.

    “I can give them 1,000 pounds, for ten weeks…I could destroy a country with more than 105 million people, with a billion pounds…basically 30 million dollars, which some people spend on one party.”

    ‘If the price of the nation’s progress and prosperity is to go hungry and thirsty, then let us not eat or drink’

    It is unclear why he publicised such remarks but his comments were widely condemned online by opposition leaders and public figures.

    Ahmed Tantawi, who is positioning himself as Sisi’s main opponent in the country’s upcoming election, condemned the president’s speech in a statement posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

    Directly addressing Sisi, he wrote: “Egyptians actually starved during your rule because of your administration. They did not see any of the development that was promised.”

    Tantawi further accused Sisi of spreading lies and accumulating “high-rise buildings, cities and palaces built in deserts, even if it is at the expense of [the ordinary] man and his right to a decent life and education”.

    “[The government] has stripped citizens of social protection, leaving two-thirds of Egyptians living below and around the poverty line, while the conditions of most of the remaining third has deteriorated dangerously,” he said.

    Other users on the platform said that Sisi represented the “cartoon of a madman” while another social media user said that the president’s comments could technically land him in jail.

    As Sisi faces a deepening economic crisis, his reaction to criticism has become increasingly erratic.

    Egypt will hold a presidential election between 10 and 12 December, brought forward from the original date in 2024, with Sisi widely expected to win a third term.

    Analysts have predicted that Egypt is the country second most at risk of a debt crisis, coming just after war-torn Ukraine.

    Nevertheless, Sisi, who was undaunted about the mounting economic problems, asked the country: “What kind of country do you want to live in? Do you want to build Egypt and make it a nation of note, or not? Do you consider building an adventure? Do you consider reform an adventure?”

    Egypt has been gripped by an economic crisis for years, a situation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine which has severely affected food prices in the country.

    Official figures showed annual inflation in Egypt reached a new record 39.7 percent in August, while the Egyptian pound has been on a dramatic slide against the dollar.

    A dollar buys 30 Egyptian pounds today compared to just under 20 exactly a year ago.

    Egypt has been dependent on bailouts from its wealthier allies in the Gulf and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in recent years, as investors pull billions out of the country.

    While the financial crisis has a range of causes, many opposition figures have pointed fingers at the increasing grip the military has held over the economy following the 2013 coup that ousted the elected government of Mohamed Morsi.

    1. ‘If the price of the nation’s progress and prosperity is to go hungry and thirsty, then let us not eat or drink’

      Abdel is the winnah! these wanna be shack gamblers can’t grasp.

  26. Homeless PIRATES are marauding through the crime-ridden San Francisco Bay

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12584341/Homeless-PIRATES-marauding-crime-ridden-San-Francisco-Bay.html

    Homeless pirates are now marauding onto houseboats in the San Francisco Bay in the latest criminal enterprise to plague California.

    Residents along the Oakland-Alameda estuary told a community meeting last week that boats have been cut loose so that they drift out to sea.

    One woman even recounted how she had rescued another resident on a sailboat in the middle of the night after pirates slashed his rigging lines during an argument.

    The brazen thieves – whose homeless encampments have spilled out of the city – are taking small motor-powered dinghies and using them in smash-and-grab raids on larger vessels and houseboats.

    During Wednesday’s San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s enforcement meeting community members spoke of having to fight off the pirates themselves as police in the Democrat-run city have failed to intervene.

    ‘The open shoreline of the (Oakland-Alameda) estuary is littered with sunken wrecks and derelict, end-of-life vessels, and crime has risen to truly intolerable levels,’ former harbor master for the area Brock de Lappe told Fox News Digital.

    One woman recounted a time she rescued a man on a sailboat in the middle of the night after he said pirates cut his sailboat line during an argument.

    ‘If there had been any wind at the time I wouldn’t have been able to go out there and rescue this young man who had no motor and no ability to sail that boat,’ she said.

    This summer, the Bay Area saw a rise in crime on the water. Photos and videos posted online showed seafaring bandits on dinghies speeding through the water at night following their thefts.

    ‘Multiple vessels have been stolen and ransacked. Victims have had to resort to personally confronting the criminals to recover their property without the benefit of police support. Is this appropriate activity for a 79-year-old senior?’ said de Lappe.

    The former harbor master told KGO that pirates have been targeting five different locations along the channel – including Jack London Square, the Jack London Square Aquatic Center, the Estuary Channel west of the Bayside Hotel, Union Point Park West, Union Point Park East.

    Kame Richards with Alameda community sailing center, an organization that teaches young kids to sail, shared that four of their eight safety boats have been stolen and police were slow to react.

    ‘We cannot imagine a way where we can just be handing off $35,000 boats to thieves and doing nothing about it,’ said Richards.

    Residents said the pirates are coming from the city’s growing homeless population that is overflowing to the waterways.

    Alameda, which is considered a suburb of Oakland, is an island with a population just under 80,000 according to the US Census.

    Data from the Alameda Police Department showed that in August burglary is up 18.6 percent compared to last year, and theft over $400 is up 10.2 percent.

    Crime is soaring in the surrounding cities of Oakland and San Francisco.

    In the Bay Area a store clerk was set on fire after he tried to stop a serial homeless shoplifter from stealing.

    The latest crime data report for the Oakland Police Department shows robbery is up 34 percent year to date, burglary is up 38 percent and motor vehicle theft is up 51 percent.

    Earlier this summer the Oakland police advised residents to reinforce their doors with braces or a security bar and install security cameras due to an increase in brazen home invasions.

    San Francisco is grappling with close to 40,000 homeless people and more robberies and motor vehicle thefts reported by the police department than the same time last year.

    Alameda Police Chief Nishant Joshi told Fox News Digital that his department is working with the Oakland PD and the Coast Guard to fight the marine crime.

    ‘In the waterways, it’s very difficult to draw a line, there are no roadways or fence lines, so we all have a shared interest, much like crime as a whole, to deal with this as a regional approach,’ said Joshi.

    1. Up in the Sierras, when the bear population starts “overflowing” they just open season on hunting bears. Just sayin’.

  28. The BBC Seminar That Banned Discussion Of Climate Change

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/10/01/the-bbc-seminar-that-banned-discussion-of-climate-change/#more-67719

    (Some excerpts from the article.)

    Hardly a week goes by without yet another glaring example of BBC bias, misinformation or just outright lies on climate issues.

    Arguably the roots of this lay in a notorious seminar organised by the BBC in 2006. Some of us may remember this, others may not have been aware of it. Either way, it’s worth re-telling the story.

    The high level seminar was held on 26th January 2006 for the purpose of deciding how the BBC should cover reporting and discussion of climate change in the future. According to a BBC Trust report (P40) on impartiality the following year:

    “The BBC has held a high-level seminar with some of the best scientific experts, and has come to the view that the weight of evidence no longer justifies equal space being given to the opponents of the consensus”

    Ever since this policy has continued to be followed, with the virtual exclusion of anybody not signed up the BBC’s idea of a consensus, no matter how highly qualified they might be.

    However, some began to be a little bit suspicious about who these “best scientific experts were”. After all, science should never be about consensus, and proper scientists should always welcome debate.

    It was a blogger named Tony Newberry who decided to file a FOI asking for the list of names of those who attended. Little did he know that he would end up in court in 2012, still trying to force the BBC to release the information. With the help of a team of lawyers, the BBC won the case.

    But it was a hollow victory, because just days later another blogger, Mauricio Morabito, used his initiative and found the list of attendees anyway with the help of the Wayback Machine.

    (A long list of attendees is posted here)

    The army of BBC bosses who attended tells us just how significant the seminar was to them. It clearly was not just a talking shop, but a major milestone in their editorial policy.

    But more important was the list of “best scientific experts”.

    It included two Greenpeace campaigners, several other environmentalist activists, representatives of business, charities, the Church of England, BP and Npower Renewables, economists, media people and politicians.

    As for climate scientists they were very thin on the ground.

    There clearly could have been very little, if any, debate on the actual science.

    The very real suspicion is that the event was deliberately designed from the very outset to come up with the result that it did– ie that “the weight of evidence no longer justifies equal space being given to the opponents of the consensus”

    1. Soaring home prices set another record as the housing market keeps getting less affordable
      Phil Rosen
      Oct 2, 2023, 10:36 AM PDT
      A row of homes in Bentonville, Arkansas. Shutterstock

      – In August, home prices climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.68% from July, hitting a record high for the fourth consecutive month, per Black Knight.

      – Prices in nearly half the nation’s 50 largest markets climbed by 0.75% or more.

      – “Even on a non-adjusted basis, August’s gain of +0.24% was more than 60% larger than the 25-year average for the month.”
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/housing-market-outlook-home-prices-record-affordable-mortgage-rates-2023-10

    3. Yahoo
      Yahoo Finance Video
      Why the current housing market is a ‘seller’s paradise’
      Rachelle Akuffo and Angel Smith
      Mon, October 2, 2023 at 9:32 AM PDT

      August home sales have reportedly seen a month-over-month decline of 7.1% from July. Yahoo Finance Reporter Dani Romero breaks down the current housing market, shedding light on why it is currently a seller’s market amid elevated mortgage rates. She also notes why the first week of October could be the best time to buy a home all year, according to Realtor.com.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-current-housing-market-sellers-163217066.html

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