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It’s Yet Another Blow To A Property Market That’s Reeling From The End Of The Cheap-Money Era

A report from the Santa Barbara Independent. “‘We’re seeing a shift in the market here in the Santa Barbara area. There are more price drops, and inventory has slowly increased month after month. Right now, I’m telling my sellers that presentation and pricing are key to a successful sale. Overpricing a home in today’s market could lead to chasing the market down and will ultimately cost a seller more money,’ says local Realtor Abel Ramos with Compass.”

Hawaii Business. “Believe it or not, it’s still possible to buy single-family homes for less than $1 million – and in the six least-expensive areas of O‘ahu, median prices are actually lower than a year ago. In Pearl City-ʻAiea, the median price through the first eight months of this year was $950,000, which was 12% below the median in the first eight months last year. Other areas with median prices below $1 million through August were the ‘Ewa Plain, Kalihi-Pālama, Mākaha-Nānākuli, Wahiawā and Waipahu. In each of those areas, the median price this year was below the same period last year. Fran Villarmia-Kahawai, president of the Honolulu Board of Realtors, says a lot of the people looking at these less-expensive homes are first-time homebuyers who may not be able to afford more, or don’t have large down payments. ‘They may have gotten outbid in the frenzy before, but now they’re coming back and there’s not much of a frenzy now,’ she says.”

From Florida Today. “When former Cocoa Beach Mayor Ben Malik moved into his current home in 2008, his Brevard Avenue neighborhood was a quiet residential area a mile or so from the city’s tourist hub downtown. But an explosion of vacation rentals in the beach town has brought the tourists to him, with one vacation rental next door and one directly behind his home. Earlier this year, he got so fed up, he put his house up for sale. There was little else he felt he could do as state law limits local ordinances about the industry. Malik later took his house off the market after one sale fell through. ‘This is what I got to listen to last night. That’s behind me,’ Malik said earlier this year, playing a video on his phone capturing loud music blaring in the darkness from the short-term rental bordering his backyard.”

“Lifelong Cocoa Beach resident Pamela Durkin is broker/owner of Coconut Properties Florida Real Estate. Durkin said prices are plunging across Brevard County’s barrier-island market of Airbnb listings because of reduced demand. ‘There’s such a flooded market of Airbnbs, and nobody wants to come here during September-October because it’s hurricane season,’ Durkin said. ‘They’re just not getting rented. They have to really drop their prices low. My cleaning lady, she said she’s very slow. She does strictly Airbnb rentals. She’s super-slow. She cleans from Cape Canaveral to Indialantic. And she’s very, very slow. All her Airbnbs are vacant,’ she said.”

The Real Deal on New York. “After three long years of buying homes sight-unseen, waving due diligence and generally being subject to the whims of sellers, buyers again have the upper hand in Manhattan’s residential market. ‘If you’re a buyer, you really have been waiting for this for a couple years,’ said UrbanDigs co-founder John Walkup. ‘You’ve got a decent amount of choice and you’ve got the market to yourself.'”

The Austin Monitor in Texas. “A parking-free, 30-unit apartment building that gained attention as one of the first attempts to bring ‘missing middle’ housing downtown has been turned over to its lender after failing to generate enough occupancy to operate successfully. Weaver Buildings, the company that created the Capitol Quarters project on Nueces Street near 12th Street, announced this week it had gone through a deed-in-lieu transfer of the property to North Carolina-based Churchill Real Estate Holdings. The 45,000-square-foot project broke ground in 2019 and offered three-bedroom apartments exclusively at a cost of $1,200 per bedroom in an attempt to offer shared living options for the downtown workforce. ‘It seemed like there are a lot of employees that, even though this is kind of a niche option, they would appreciate that option to live a little bit cheaper than a studio to be able to walk to work. That was the thesis,’ said Jen Weaver, president of Weaver Buildings.”

Bisnow Boston on Massachusetts. “Kendall Capital, through the entity 33 West LLC, acquired an eight-story, 38K SF Class-B office building at 33-41 West St. for $4.1M from Dedham-based Bay Management Corp., according to public records. The deal was a 74% discount from the $16M price that Bay Management paid for the property in 2016, Banker & Tradesman first reported Monday. Mai Luo, president at Kendall Capital, told Bisnow Tuesday that the property had been listed on the auction site Ten-X. Luo said that although the price was lower than expected, it might be the reality of the market as more deals begin to happen. ‘It’s reasonable because if we look back and say, ‘Oh, my gosh, it’s 75% off,’ people often forget the value goes up and down, and maybe this is the new normal,’ Luo said. Bay Management bought the property in 2016 for $16M, more than double the $7.2M price the prior owner paid in 2008.”

The Globe and Mail. “The sputtering Toronto-area fall real estate market is seeing a steady rise in inventory as October begins but skittish potential buyers are looking for more clarity in the outlook for the Canadian economy. As buyers take their time, sellers need to be extremely rational in setting an asking price, says James Warren, a real estate agent with Chestnut Park Real Estate. Mr. Warren has an upcoming listing in midtown Toronto that was listed previously for $7.4-million and $6.8-million without finding a buyer. The homeowner then approached Mr. Warren. ‘We’ve just banged it down to under six,’ he says. ‘I don’t want to take overpriced listings.'”

“With resistant homeowners, Mr. Warren tells them frankly, ‘you’re being used to sell other houses.’ That’s what he calls the ‘light bulb moment’ for many sellers who are holding fast to a higher price, he says. While buyers were able to pass a mortgage ‘stress test’ when they purchased, they now face soaring expenses in other areas of their lives. ‘What the stress test didn’t take into consideration was the inflation rate.’ When interest rates were low, buyers were more willing to throw money around, he adds. ‘I think people are now beginning to understand the value of a dollar.'”

The Belfast Telegraph in Northern Ireland. “Within the county, people aren’t afraid to bid where they see value, says Colin Graham of Colin Graham Residential. ‘We are finding that the market in our area is buoyant, yet price sensitive. The properties that are being listed at the correct level are getting good interest and naturally finding full market value through the bidding process. The properties that are being pitched too high, even if by only a little, are seeing little to no interest… currently there is no in between.'”

From Bloomberg. “In July this year, Nuremberg’s mayor celebrated the final beam being placed atop the redeveloped Quelle building, a monumental 1950s symbol of postwar Germany’s economic revival. Revamped with offices, shops and homes, a big part of the giant complex was slated to open in 2024. In recent weeks, however, the site’s developer Gerch Group, which has €4 billion ($4.2 billion) of projects under construction, has filed for insolvency proceedings, along with one of its project companies linked to the development. The opening date’s now in doubt. It’s yet another blow to a property market that’s reeling from the end of the cheap-money era.”

“The travails of Gerch and its ilk show that developers — the firms that own the building projects — are the ones in imminent danger. ‘Project developers are struggling with the increased construction costs, increased interest rates and the drop in prices,’ says Marlies Raschke, cohead of restructuring and insolvency at law firm Noerr. ‘We’ve seen several of them filing for insolvency in the last weeks and we expect more.'”

“Developers around the world face similar woes. In Australia, Porter Davis is among homebuilders that have gone into liquidation this year after surging costs and falling demand. In Sweden, a rise in bankruptcies has been driven by a construction slump, while in Finland housing starts could plunge to levels not seen since the 1940s, according to the country’s construction lobby. It’s a rapid change in fortunes after the years of rock-bottom interest rates, when money poured into property as investors hunted for yield.”

“Taken together, all these factors depress the underlying value of developer land. It upends the economics of property development, too, with the price drop meaning some companies may lose money just by finishing a building. In one example Aggregate Holdings SA, the diminished real estate empire run by Cevdet Caner, had to hand over the keys of Berlin’s QH Track project to creditor Oaktree Capital Management.”

News.com.au in Australia. “A building company has collapsed into liquidation with 50 homeowners across Melbourne and regional Victoria impacted. News.com.au can reveal that River Dale Building Group Pty Ltd which traded under the name Chatham Homes went into voluntary liquidation less than 24 hours ago. News.com.au understands the building firm did not take out insurance for a handful of customers which means they are set to lose their entire deposits without government intervention. School teachers Louise and Brett Strachan have been devastated to learn of the company’s demise, especially because domestic building insurance was not taken out in their name.”

“‘We’re going to lose $32,000 in total,’ Ms Strachan, 32, told news.com.au. The mum-of-two said they first engaged Chatham Homes way back in 2021 but despite the passage of two years, there’s only an empty block of land to show for their time and money. Ms Strachan was due to have another baby and so she and her husband fast tracked signing the building contract, which was done at the end of June. ‘My husband and I were completely fooled, we were so excited,’ Ms Strachan said.”

From Jing Daily. “China, once the envy of the world with its skyrocketing economic growth, now stands at a critical juncture. Xie Zhuoqun, a 37-year-old resident of Hangzhou, an affluent coastal city and tech hub renowned for lavish luxury consumption, usually allocates an average of 10,000 yuan ($1,364) monthly for luxury goods. ‘I’ve observed a noticeable deterioration in the overall economic climate,’ she says. ‘Luxury items remain unsold on store shelves, prompting discreet outreach from sales assistants to their customer pool. People seem to be window shopping more but making fewer purchases.'”

“‘It seems that some businesses create artificial queues outside to bolster their image,’ she continues. ‘When it comes to the housing market, the challenges are even more pronounced. Listed properties struggle to attract buyers, and even with a one million yuan price reduction on properties valued at over ten million, there are still no takers.'”

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This Post Has 115 Comments

  1. ‘Overpricing a home in today’s market could lead to chasing the market down and will ultimately cost a seller more money’

    Thornberg:

    via GIPHY

  2. ‘It seemed like there are a lot of employees that, even though this is kind of a niche option, they would appreciate that option to live a little bit cheaper than a studio to be able to walk to work. That was the thesis’

    First Jen, you just gave it away? And have you ever tried walking in Austin? Yer taking yer life in yer hands.

    1. “offered three-bedroom apartments exclusively at a cost of $1,200 per bedroom”

      Then they must have been charging massive rent for a studio. You can fit 3 studios in the space of one 3-bed apartment. Charge $1800 and the place will be filled in no time.

    2. This is college student type living. Terrible idea. And fwiw, the prices are almost as criminal as they are for college apartments. Living through that hell now with my son. Wish he’d stayed in the dorms. Unfortunately, can’t get back on campus once you move off.

  3. ‘We’ve just banged it down to under six,’ he says. ‘I don’t want to take overpriced listings’

    That’s the spirit Jim, tough love!

    ‘With resistant homeowners, Mr. Warren tells them frankly, ‘you’re being used to sell other houses.’ That’s what he calls the ‘light bulb moment’ for many sellers who are holding fast to a higher price, he says’

    Another good light bulb moment in the mornin’!

  4. “Overpricing a home in today’s market could lead to chasing the market down and will ultimately cost a seller more money,’ says local Realtor Abel Ramos with Compass.”

    Non-Realtorspeak translation: Sell now, or ride your falling knife money pit to the bottom of the CR8R.

    1. What happened to the shortage? Hot market?

      When the realtors start blaming the greedy sellers, you know it’s over!

  5. Does the prospect of an 8% 30-year mortgage rate worry you?

    Frankly I don’t see the concern. The wannabe owner-occupants who need to borrow in order to buy a home have already gone into hiding at rates below 8%. What would change if rates breached 8%?

    1. Yahoo
      Yahoo Finance
      Goldman Sachs calls an audible: Mortgage rates going up, after all, in 2023
      Dani Romero
      Wed, October 4, 2023 at 8:23 AM CDT·3 min read
      In this article:

      Goldman Sachs is changing its forecast on mortgage rates.

      In January, the firm’s housing economists predicted mortgage rates would land at 6.5% by the end of this year. Now? Well, never mind. Goldman Sachs believes rates will run higher.

      “We are revising our forecasts for mortgage rates higher, to 7.1% for year-end 2023 and 6.8% for year-end 2024 from prior forecasts of 6.6% and 5.9%, respectively,” Roger Ashworth, managing director at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note for the firm’s housing team.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-calls-an-audible-mortgage-rates-going-up-after-all-in-2023-132351751.html

      1. “In January, the firm’s housing economists predicted mortgage rates would land at 6.5% by the end of this year.”

        F = fail

    2. The Wall Street Journal
      Heard on the Street
      Why 8% Mortgage Rates Aren’t Crazy
      With fewer buyers for mortgage bonds, the rates on home loans can go unusually high
      By Telis Demos
      Oct. 4, 2023 5:30 am ET
      You may also like
      America’s biggest cities are littered with vacant plots of land. WSJ explains the unseen role property taxes play in the country’s housing shortage.
      Photo illustration: Amber Bragdon

      Treasury yields are jumping higher, but even that doesn’t explain how high mortgage rates are getting. Home buyers might wonder whether typical mortgage rates could soon hit 8%.
      …

    3. Real Estate
      Mortgage rate races toward 8% after hitting a high not seen since late 2000
      Published Tue, Oct 3 2023 12:52 PM EDT
      Updated Tue, Oct 3 2023 1:51 PM EDT
      Diana Olick

      WATCH LIVE
      Key Points

      – The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.72%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

      – Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has been climbing this week.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/03/mortgage-rate-heads-toward-8percent.html

      1. Freddie says about the same. The interesting comment was about new affordability

        The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.49% this week, a fresh 23-year high, mortgage giant Freddie Mac said on Thursday. The rate was 7.31% last week.
        …
        The median American household needed 44% of its income to cover annual payments on a median-priced home as of July, according to the Atlanta Fed. That was the highest level ever recorded in data going back to 2006.

    4. “What would change if rates breached 8%?”

      Come to think of it, implied fundamental valuations (aka the bottom of the CR8R) would go even lower than they already have.

    5. Washington
      Published October 4, 2023 2:04am EDT
      Increasing mortgage rates in the US are putting growing pressure on homebuyers
      The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage recently hit its highest level since 2001
      By Jake Karalexis FOXBusiness

      Freddie Mac says 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose to their highest level in more than 20 years. This has made things tougher on homebuyers because of a lack of supply and demand.

      Recent data shows 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose to their highest level in over 20 years, leaving plenty of homebuyers in a pinch.

      The spike is forcing buyers to save up a lot more money to afford a home… Especially those who are looking to buy a house for the first time.

      “We’re still continuing to rent and I think we will continue to rent until we see a good drop in the numbers,” said Shweta Sugnani, who’s looking to buy a house around western Washington.
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/increasing-mortgage-rates-us-putting-growing-pressure-homebuyers

      1. “Increasing mortgage rates in the US are putting growing pressure on homebuyers”

        Isn’t it interesting how homebuyers, who presumably are not currently the owners of falling knife real estate, are always the ones feeling the pressure of higher mortgage rates, according to the standard REIC-sponsored mainstream media narrative?

        Just remember: You can always rent a place for a fraction of the cost of using an 8% mortgage to purchase a falling knife property and buy later after home proces reach the bottom of the CR8R.

    6. In the Powell Principle of “higher for longer,” the longer is MUCH more devastating than the higher. If you have enough stashed away to ride this out, you don’t care if the rates are 6.5% or 8%. But there are always going to be deaths and divorces and job losses, and there is only so long that someone can hang on. At some point they will need to get to sawin’ and slashin’. We’re starting to see that already.

      1. So true. And another thing most don’t understand is bringing rates back down below 7 or even 6 percent in mortgage rates doesn’t save this housing market. They need ZIRP AND 3% percent mortgage rates to even have a chance, and that ain’t gonna happen.

  6. (Here is snip of a long, non-housing related article. Link on it to read the rest and as a bonus you will be presented with a chart or two.)

    Our Revolting Elites

    The ‘revolt of the elites’ has reversed the source of social disorder from the masses to the elites.

    https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2023/10/our-revolting-elites.html

    Prescient social critic Christopher Lasch’s 1996 book, The Revolt of the Elites and the Betrayal of Democracy, laid out a blueprint of social decay that continues to inform our descent into social disorder. Lasch excoriated our revolting elites for abandoning the foundations of social stability, upward mobility, the middle class and democracy in their race to enrich and insulate themselves in protected enclaves–neighborhoods, corporate suites, foundations and institutions–of fellow elites.

    In Lasch’s analysis, America’s elites are revolting against the obligations imposed on traditional elites to nurture the foundational values that support democracy, national purpose, civic pride and a moral order that restrains narcissism and greed as a means of protecting opportunities for advancement from the pillage of the wealthy.

    Lasch identified the ways in which globalization fosters elite pathologies. In his view, America’s technocratic elites are a new class of symbolic analysts whose financial means “rest not so much on the ownership of property as on the manipulation of information and professional expertise.”

    Serving trans-national corporations, foundations and agencies, they have “more in common with their counterparts in Brussels or Hong Kong than with the masses of Americans not yet plugged into the network of global communications.”

    1. (Here is an elite that I personally find revolting …)

      Olena Zelenska spends $1,100,000 on Cartier jewelry, gets sales employee fired

      https://thenationonlineng.net/olena-zelenska-spends-1100000-on-cartier-jewelry-gets-sales-employee-fired/

      elensky’s wife reportedly spent $1,100,000 on a shopping trip in NYC while visiting the United States together with her husband to shore up continued support from Washington.

      During the visit, Zelensky gave his first in-person address to the UN General Assembly, met with lawmakers on Capitol Hill, and also visited the White house. While Zelensky was blitzing Washington in urgent effort to bolster support for Ukraine, his wife Olena Zelenska was spotted on Fifth Avenue in NYC.

      New York’s Fifth Avenue is the city’s most famous shopping street, and probably the most famous shopping street in the world. A lot of prestigious and high-end stores can be found between 49th and 60th Street on Fifth Avenue including Armani, Gucci, Bergdorf Goodman, Harry Winston, Cartier. Modern day celebrities are often spotted wearing CARTIER pieces: Angelina Jolie, Kylie Jenner, Lupita Nyong’o and … Olena Zelenska. According to our sources, the wife of Ukrainian president is a diehard Cartier enthusiast. Moreover, she has even visited the famous Cartier Mansion during Ukrainian

      President’s visit to NYC to address the United Nations General Assembly, and has reportedly spent $1,100,000 on jewelry.

      According to information collected by Boukari Ouédraogo from the Cartier store ex-employee, Olena Zelenska visited the boutique during her and her husband’s visit to New York. “I tried to take her on a quick tour, but she wasn’t interested,” the ex-employee further recalls.

      Zelenska’s visit to the luxury boutique ended up in a very unexpected manner as she snapped at the employee who was trying to assist her with a “Who said I need your opinion?” rant. After that, according to the boutique ex-worker, Zelenska had a talk with the manager. The ex-worker has no idea what the discussion was about but the next day she got fired from the boutique.

      After receiving a “you’re fired” call the next day after Zelenska’s visit, the ex-employee decided to share her story about the bizarre encounter on the Instagram. She has managed to sneak away a copy of a receipt containing Zelenska’s purchases while packing her personal belongings at the boutique.

      (Link onto the article to read the rest.)

      1. I don’t wish hardship on the innocent citizens of Ukraine, but my greatest hope for the end of this conflict is that it includes the Russians taking Zelensky and his skank wife alive.

      1. The girl who made them showed signs of meth addiction (dull, vacant stare; bad skin), but I figured it’s pretty hard to screw up a fast food crepes order.

    2. People on this blog say they don’t want to live under a dictatorship? Criminalizing your political opposition is what happens under a dictatorship, we’re already living in one.

      Via ZeroSludge:

      “The Biden FBI has ‘quietly created a new category of extremists that it seeks to track and counter: Donald Trump’s army of MAGA followers’ ahead of the 2024 election, according to prolific (and well connected) anti-war journalist and political commentator, William Arkin, who has previously reported on the FBI’s efforts to “Fight MAGA Terrorism.”

      In a Wednesday Newsweek article, Arkin reveals that the vast majority of FBI investigations into “anti-government” activities are of Trump supporters.

      “The FBI is in an almost impossible position,” a current FBI official told Arkin, who added that the agency’s stated intent is stopping a repeat of January 6th type incidents (which was riddled with feds), while balancing the Constitutional right of Americans to protest the government “Especially at a time when the White House is facing Congressional Republican opposition claiming that the Biden administration has ‘weaponized’ the Bureau against the right wing, it has to tread very carefully,” the official continued.

      We would note that an FBI whistleblower in March claimed that the agency pressured him to inflate domestic terrorism figures against conservatives, and that the agency created a specific threat tag for pro-lifers “THREATSCOTUS2022” following the leaked Supreme Court opinion on abortion (and not a threat tag for the violent leftists who threatened SCOTUS justices?).

      The FBI told Newsweek in a statement that: “The threat posed by domestic violent extremists is persistent, evolving, and deadly. The FBI’s goal is to detect and stop terrorist attacks, and our focus is on potential criminal violations, violence and threats of violence. Anti-government or anti-authority violent extremism is one category of domestic terrorism, as well as one of the FBI’s top threat priorities,” adding “We are committed to protecting the safety and constitutional rights of all Americans and will never open an investigation based solely on First Amendment protected activity, including a person’s political beliefs or affiliations.”

      https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fbi-creates-maga-extremist-category-targets-trump-supporters-ahead-2024-election

      1. “despite the passage of two years, there’s only an empty block of land to show for their time and money.”

        So do they get to keep the land part of not-yet-built house they bought? If they only put in $32K, probably not.

      2. “People on this blog say they don’t want to live under a dictatorship? Criminalizing your political opposition is what happens under a dictatorship, we’re already living in one.”

        – aka: Banana Republic.

        – Since the Obama & Biden presidencies (Obama 2.0) we’re all banana republicans now.

        – Throw in some fascist tactics from NAZI / Stasi Germany as well.

        – You get the government you deserve, and get it good and hard.

        – Venezuela comes to mind. How’s that Communism / Socialism / Dictatorship workin’ out for ya?

        – This isn’t the status quo yet. The peasants are revolting.

    1. Updated Thu, Oct 5 2023 9:05 AM EDT
      Dow futures fall 100 points with investors on edge ahead of Friday’s jobs data: Live updates
      Hakyung Kim
      Lisa Kailai Han

      U.S. stock futures traded lower Thursday as investors were cautious ahead of key jobs data on Friday that could determine the next move for interest rates.

      Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 104 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

      Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 207,000 for the week ending Sept. 30, up just 2,000 from the prior week’s numbers. Economists had forecasted 210,000, according to a Dow Jones consensus estimate. While the slight increase in jobless claims was about in-line with the Street, it disappointed some investors hoping the weekly data would start to signal a labor market breakdown and end the run in rates that’s hurting stocks.

      The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher after the jobless claims report. It was last yielding at 4.762%.

      On Friday, economists polled by Dow Jones believe non-farm payrolls for September will show a 170,000 increase, that would be down from a 187,000 jobs gain in August. While investors aren’t hoping for a recession, they are wishing for some labor market weakness that would cause the Federal Reserve to rethink raising rates again and halt the run in Treasury yields to 16-year highs.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    2. Our Soviet-style BLS jobs numbers are as falsified as the CPI inflation numbers. Not to mention, in #BidensEconomy you need 3 jobs to keep a roof over your head.

  9. Bay Management bought the property in 2016 for $16M, more than double the $7.2M price the prior owner paid in 2008.”

    2008 was also the year the Fed went full Zimbabwe with its money printing/currency debasement. So in real terms the loss of value was even higher.

  10. Listed properties struggle to attract buyers, and even with a one million yuan price reduction on properties valued at over ten million, there are still no takers.’”

    So I’m no economics major like AOC, but it seems it those properties “valued at over ten million” are sitting unsold, then Mr. Market is telling us their actual value is considerably lower.

  11. ‘This is what I got to listen to last night. That’s behind me,’ Malik said earlier this year, playing a video on his phone capturing loud music blaring in the darkness from the short-term rental bordering his backyard.’

    I confess to be writing this from a comfortable bed in a s-t rental in the Midwest, far from the Florida beach town of Cocoa where I entered this world long ago. There is no loud music to be heard, just the gentle patter of rain on the roof.

    1. Oh, the pain,
      Thanks for the spot on article.
      The only thing that explains the insanity that has been unleashed on the World is that Monopoly Corporations, Banks, Rich Elites , United Nations etc . , have a partnership with inflitrated global Governments to genocide and enslave humanity.
      Joe Biden said “US should lead in One World Order. ”
      Klaus Schwab said, “Who controls technology will control the World.”
      How much more evidence do people need of One World Order insurrection to take over World in partnership with inflitrated Governments.

  13. . ‘If you’re a buyer, you really have been waiting for this for a couple years,’ said UrbanDigs co-founder John Walkup. ‘You’ve got a decent amount of choice and you’ve got the market to yourself.’”

    Even if they wanted to buy, which I doubt, how many of those buyers still qualify at today’s prices and rates John? If you think you’ve got a load of buyers just waiting in the hopper you’re sadly mistaken.

  15. “‘It seems that some businesses create artificial queues outside to bolster their image,’ she continues.”

    Only in China…

    “‘When it comes to the housing market, the challenges are even more pronounced. Listed properties struggle to attract buyers, and even with a one million yuan price reduction on properties valued at over ten million, there are still no takers.’”

    Something tells me these properties may currently be valued at less than 9 million yuan.

  16. “As buyers take their time, sellers need to be extremely rational in setting an asking price,”

    “Extremely rational” = Your house is worth a lot less than you thought it was.

  17. I’m thinking perhaps my timing didn’t suck when I dumped my energy stock mutual fund HODLings a couple of weeks ago.

    1. Business
      Stock market today: With little sign of significant demand, energy prices, and producers, tumble
      By YURI KAGEYAMA and MATT OTT
      Updated 7:44 AM CDT, October 5, 2023

      Crude prices have fallen every day this week save for one and drillers are getting hit hard as potential economic headwinds raise anxiety once again over a recession.

      Futures for the Dow Jones industrials and the S&P 500 shuffled between small gains and losses before the opening bell Thursday.

      Benchmark U.S. crude oil are down another 91 cents to $83.31 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange early Thursday, a day after tumbling almost 6%, the biggest drop in just over a year.
      …
      https://apnews.com/article/stock-market-rates-bonds-oil-eedde6a7bbef6bd6df36b56c17216011

    2. Middle East
      Major Gulf markets drop on lower oil prices
      By Md Manzer Hussain
      October 5, 2023 8:41 AM CDT
      Updated 16 min ago
      A trader looks on near electronic boards showing stock market data at Bahrain Bourse in Manama, Bahrain, November 8, 2020. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

      Oct 5 (Reuters) –

      Major stock markets in the Gulf tumbled on Thursday, following declines in oil prices as an uncertain demand outlook and concern over higher-for-longer interest rates by the U.S Federal Reserve dampened investor sentiment.

      Oil prices – a key catalyst for the Gulf’s financial markets – settled more than $5 lower on Wednesday, its biggest daily drop in over a year, as a bleaker macroeconomic outlook and fuel demand destruction came into focus following a meeting of an OPEC+ panel.

      Brent crude was down 0.7% on Thursday to trade at $85.17 a barrel by 1300 GMT.

      Dubai’s benchmark index slumped 1.2%, the sharpest fall in over six months. The index was dragged down by losses in all sectors with real estate developer Emaar Properties and Emaar Development dropping 1.8% and 3.9%, respectively.

      The emirate’s largest lender Emirates NBD declined 2.2%.

      The Qatari index slipped 1.2%, the steepest drop since August end, weighed down by losses in all sectors with Qatar Gas Transport falling 2.7% and Mesaieed sliding 3.2%.

      Among the losers, index heavyweights Qatar Islamic Bank and Commercial Bank lost 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively.

      Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index was down 0.7%, extending its losses to a sixth straight session, with oil major Saudi Aramco falling 1% and Atheeb Telecom dropping 2.7%.

      The kingdom’s biggest lender by assets Saudi National Bank slipped 1.1% and Riyad Bank dipped 3.4%.

      In Abu Dhabi, the benchmark index retreated for a second consecutive session and ended 0.6% lower, pulled down by a 0.8% drop in conglomerate International Holding Company (and 1.7% fall in Aldar Properties.

      The UAE’s largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank lost 0.3% and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank shed 1.3%.

      U.S. yields have been rising in recent weeks as investors reprice the chance of the Fed keeping rates elevated for longer, if inflation remains above target and the economy continues to show resilience.

      Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council is usually guided by Fed policy because most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar.
      …
      https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/major-gulf-markets-drop-lower-oil-prices-2023-10-05/

    3. Yahoo
      Yahoo Finance
      Oil: ‘Demand destruction has begun’, say JPMorgan analysts
      Ines Ferré
      Wed, October 4, 2023 at 2:01 PM CDT·2 min read
      In this article:

      Oil rallied an average of 28% last quarter, jumping to a 2023 high in September, as OPEC+ output cuts and further supply restraints from Saudi Arabia and Russia created a deficit in the market.

      Expect crude demand to decline this quarter following the recent rally, JPMorgan analysts said in a recent client note.

      “After reaching our target of $90 in September, our end-year target remains $86 [per barrel],” wrote Natasha Kaneva, head of the global commodities strategy team at JPMorgan.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-demand-destruction-has-begun-say-jpmorgan-analysts-151912451.html

  18. A reader sent these in:

    While extent of the drawdown in long-duration Treasury bonds is extreme, the volatility of the sell-off is not. For example, the recent 10% decline in $TLT has taken 21 days. By contrast, in March 2020, a 12% crash took place in 2 days. So far, sell-off is SOMEWHAT orderly.

    https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status/1709318425925865630

    On student loan forgiveness, I’m a moderate. I believe the loans should be paid out of the bank accounts & pensions of the Congressman & Senators who guaranteed the loans in exchange for votes.

    https://twitter.com/SallyMayweather/status/1709311937085874613

    Why are Canadians not uprising against this absurd Orwellian control hysteria that’s been going on since Trudeau was brought to power? What explains this docility and lack of assertiveness?

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1709583026252910767

    Not unexpected : mortgage applications collapsing

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1709527654267764883

    The dreaded 2nd wave of inflation! Gasoline

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1709667815890747699

    2. I believe the loans should be paid out of the bank accounts & pensions of the Congressman & Senators who guaranteed the loans in exchange for votes.

      Yes, and the obligations of the said Congressmen & Senators to pay on these guarantees should be non-dischargeable in bankruptcy, the same way they’ve made it with student loans.

  20. Canadians are a docile bunch, except for hockey nights , And when they go to the campgrounds during the 2 months it’s feasible in the summer months ……They stay up all night beating drums and drinking long-neck bottles of beer then……bracing themselves for the long winter coming at them……I guess…

  21. There is the failure right there. how about constructing an average no frills 1 bedroom apt for $1200 a month? is that way too challenging ? does it emotionally cripple you to build a 3 room apt with an separate eat in kitchen big enough to put a real 4-6 seat kitchen table so you can invite guests over? Like the normal kitchen i grew up with and always found in an older rental and 2-3 double closets and/or a storage space in the basement. Why do you automatically choose luxury and now there is a glut all over America?

    2019 and offered three-bedroom apartments exclusively at a cost of $1,200 per bedroom

  22. Sponsored content article provided by the World Economic Forum.

    New York Times — Why Summers May Never Be the Same (10/5/2023):

    “The globe’s warmest months on record redefined summer for many Americans.”

    No, it did not. Globalist scum media is attempting to redefine summer, because globalist scum media.

    “There’s an ominous feeling,” he said. “You notice that something’s fundamentally off. It just struck me that what we’re experiencing right now is so similar to that prelude.”

    Globally, average temperatures broke a string of monthly records this summer, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: June was the warmest June, July the warmest July and August the warmest August. September was also, by a record margin, the warmest September, the European Union climate monitor said this week. As humans continue adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, record-breaking heat will become even more common, as will extreme weather events like droughts, wildfires and floods.

    To many Americans, the season felt like a climate inflection point: a peek at what the country is facing in the future, and a new definition of summer.”

    https://archive.ph/pMXFl

    The “Little Ice Age” only ended around the year 1850.

    You don’t change the weather with communism, because that is what this warmist alarmism is about: one world communist government, the erasure of national sovereignty, mass famine, and potentially the genocide of hundreds of millions, if not billions.

    All while the self-proclaimed elite continue living like royalty.

    The French had a problem with royalty once, and in 1789, they decided to do something about it…

  23. The Washington Post is the enemy of the American people.

    Washington Post — Vote to oust McCarthy is a warning sign for democracy, scholars say (10/4/2023):

    “If you want to know what it looks like when democracy is in trouble, this is what it looks like,” said Daniel Ziblatt, professor of government at Harvard University. “It should set off alarm bells that something is not right.”

    The vote reflected the enormous power that a small group of representatives camped on their party’s ideological fringe can wield over an entire institution, said Ziblatt, co-author of the book “Tyranny of the Minority.” It also showcased how difficult it will be for anyone to corral the House in a way that’s functional, with major decisions over the budget and Ukraine funding ahead.

    Scholars said the actions of Gaetz and his allies have only deepened the dysfunction, leaving the House rudderless and with no clear path to effective leadership. Although a government shutdown was narrowly avoided over the weekend, another looms next month. Future assistance to Ukraine as it fends off a Russian invasion is also at stake.

    As disconcerting as the events of the past few weeks have been, more worrying is what might come next. History has shown that government dysfunction can be a prelude to the erasure of democracy altogether, with authoritarianism rising in its place, said Harvard’s Ziblatt.”

    https://archive.ph/9X4oG

    Note the article mentions taxpayer money for Ukraine twice, but does not mention our open southern border once.

    Globalists gonna globe.

      2. For the MSM brainwashed: the United States of America is a constitutional republic not a democracy.

  24. Russia Today — Ukrainians ‘freaking out’ over US funding ‘disaster’ (10/5/2023):

    “While Ukraine has publicly distanced itself from the congressional chaos in the US, officials privately admit that there is a lot of anxiety over future deliveries of weapons and financing by its key Western sponsor, Politico reported on Wednesday.

    “We are freaking out. For us it is a disaster,” MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze was quoted by the outlet as saying.

    An unnamed MP interviewed by the outlet called the situation in the US “a setup” for Ukraine that people in Kiev were “watching for now.”

    They were referring to last week’s failure of the US Congress to approve additional Ukraine spending in the 45-day stopgap funding bill and the subsequent ouster of Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House, a first in American history.

    According to the Wall Street Journal, Kiev has enough money to last through October, but beyond that is far less certain should foreign aid dry up.”

    https://www.rt.com/russia/584075-ukrainians-freak-out-money/

    Russia is winning. God wills it ✝️

    1. Related article.

      CNBC — European leaders say they can’t fully replace U.S. support to Ukraine as funding fears grow (10/5/2023):

      “European leaders said Thursday that the 27-nation bloc would not be able to fully replace U.S. support for war-torn Ukraine but made clear they were “absolutely convinced” Kyiv’s biggest financial and military backer would soon come to an agreement to provide further assistance.

      Gathering in Granada, Spain, for a summit of the European Political Community, European leaders sought to reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion. The meeting comes shortly after political upheavals on both sides of the Atlantic.

      In the U.S., President Joe Biden conceded Wednesday that he feared recent congressional chaos could disrupt U.S. aid to Ukraine after Republican infighting had complicated budget negotiations. He has insisted, however, that a majority of members across both major parties support funding Kyiv.”

      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/05/russia-war-eu-says-europe-cannot-replace-us-support-to-ukraine.html

      $33+ trillion national debt.

      Nobody outside the Beltway supports Ukraine. Nobody.

      #AmericaFirst

      2. If the money spigot isn’t reopened soon we should see a lot of Ukrainian grifters quietly depart for their European villas on the Mediterranean, or if they are really scared they might come all the way to the US.

    2. Joe Biden is bankrolling Ukraine’s 57,000 first responders – and even funding fashion stores, schools and farms – in $10bn aid package
      US funding for Ukraine has not just covered the direct costs of war – other sections of the country’s economy have also received billions of dollars

      The country’s farming sector has received hundreds of millions of dollars, while small businesses and first responders have also benefited from aid

      By LEWIS PENNOCK FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

      PUBLISHED: 10:53 EDT, 25 September 2023 | UPDATED: 11:02 EDT, 25 September 2023

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12558067/US-Ukraine-aid-farmers-businesses.html

    1. Financial Times
      Sovereign bonds
      Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off?
      With prices plunging and yields at decade highs, these are the parts of the financial system that could come under strain
      A montage of a line graph and bank notes
      Owen Walker, Ian Smith, Will Louch and Josephine Cumbo in London and Stephen Gandel, Antoine Gara and Harriet Clarfelt in New York yesterday

      A sell-off in global bond markets has pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in a decade or more.

      That means potentially heavy losses for banks, insurers, pension funds and asset managers that own trillions of dollars of sovereign and corporate debt after loading up in recent years.

      Policymakers and investors are wary that the latest round of sharp moves could inflict severe damage on various parts of the financial system.

      “We are watching this . . . very carefully to see if something breaks,” said Salman Ahmed, global head of macro at Fidelity International.
      US banks

      Paper losses on the most opaque part of US banks’ bond portfolios are now close to $400bn — an all-time high, and 10 per cent above the peak at the start of the year that caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank — according to Matthew Anderson, an analyst at bond data firm Trepp.

      Most banks, and in particular the largest ones, will not have to sell and so will never realise those losses.

      But the implosion of midsized US lender SVB in March refocused the minds of regulators and investors on the risks lurking in bank bond portfolios.
      …

    2. DOW 30 -0.03%
      S&P 500 -0.13%
      NASDAQ 100. -0.36%

      The collapse in Treasury bonds now ranks among the worst market crashes in history
      Filip De Mott
      Oct 5, 2023, 4:28 PM CDT
      A bond trader shouting on the phone.
      The bond market has been suffering as yields continue to climb. The 30-year Treasury surpassed 5% for the first time in decades, with experts seeing a similar path ahead for the 10-year note. Scott Olson/Getty Images

      – Since March 2020, Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years or more have plummeted 46%, Bloomberg says.

      – That’s just under losses seen in the stock market when the dot-com bubble burst.

      – The bond rout is worse than the one seen in 1981 when the 10-year yield neared 16%.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-bond-yields-market-selloff-market-crashes-dot-com-bubble-2023-10

    3. Financial Times
      US interest rates
      Treasury rout bolsters view that Fed will call time on rate rises
      Market odds of another increase by year-end drop to 30% as bond yields surge
      Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, speaks in an interview
      Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, said the central bank does not need to ‘rush to any decisions’ about interest rates
      Colby Smith in Washington and Kate Duguid in New York
      8 hours ago

      A surge in US borrowing costs has bolstered investors’ conviction that the Federal Reserve is finished raising interest rates, after months of aggressively increasing them in a historic battle against inflation.

      Yields on Treasury bonds reached the highest points in more than a decade this week, raising financing costs for businesses and consumers that could slow down the economy and tamp down prices without further action from US central bank.

      The latest top official to back this view was Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, who on Thursday said the central bank does not need to “rush to any decisions” about interest rates at a time when the labour market is showing signs of cooling, price pressures have abated and Treasury yields have sharply risen.

      “If financial conditions, which have tightened considerably in the past 90 days, remain tight, the need for us to take further action is diminished,” she said in prepared remarks.

      Daly, who is not a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee until next year, added: “If we continue to see a cooling labour market and inflation heading back to our target, we can hold interest rates steady and let the effects of policy continue to work.”

      She made her comments a day before the release of a US monthly payrolls report that is expected to show a modest slowdown in hiring. A Goldman Sachs index of financial conditions, which measures companies’ costs of borrowing money, has hit the highest level in a year.

      The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield this week touched levels last seen in August 2007, at 4.9 per cent. The 30-year Treasury yield also notched a roughly 16-year high, rising above 5 per cent. On Thursday yields eased from those peaks.

      Bond yields rise when prices fall. Yields on Treasuries climbed following a market rout that gathered momentum after Fed officials last month embraced a “higher for longer” approach to setting interest rates, indicating support for one more quarter-point rate rise and slashing the expected magnitude of rate cuts over the next two years.

      However, investors now view no new rises as a more likely outcome. Futures markets point to roughly 30 per cent odds of a quarter-point increase by December, down from 40 per cent last Friday and more than 50 per cent two weeks ago.

      “The bond market heard them loud and clear about ‘higher for longer’ and effectively tightened for them,” said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. “The aim of monetary policy is to tighten financial conditions, and they just got [that] this last week.”
      …

      1. “The 30-year Treasury yield also notched a roughly 16-year high, rising above 5 per cent.”

        My head is spinning…

  26. Fans Unable to Attend Army-Navy Football Game Due to Hotels Housing Illegal Migrants

    PAUL BOIS
    4 Oct 2023

    The traditional Army-Navy football game in December may be short of a few fans due to local hotels being all booked up with housing for illegal migrants.

    Set to take place on December 9 at Gillette Stadium in Massachusetts, fans hoping to attend the beloved sporting event were disappointed to learn that hotels near the stadium had no vacancy due to Democrat Gov. Maura Healey housing illegal migrants.

    “Scores of military veterans, service academy graduates, and families are scrambling to find hotel rooms for the big Army-Navy game at Gillette Stadium because their reservations were canceled to make way for migrant families,” noted the Boston Herald.

    Mark Mansbach, a travel agent with Hillsdale Travel, said that 70 of his rooms at three hotels were “taken back” by the management company due to the arrival of illegal migrants.

    Claire Mulholland, VP of Marketing for Giri Hotel Management, said that the Comfort Inn in Foxboro, as well as other hotels near the stadium, have been taking migrants. Giri Hotel Management said they would “seamlessly relocate guests” who had their rooms booked.

    “By providing shelter to refugees, we aim to be part of a global community that stands together in support of those in need,” Mulholland said. “We look forward to working with local authorities and organizations to ensure a smooth transition for all those who will call our hotels home during their time with us.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2023/10/04/fans-unable-to-attend-army-navy-football-game-due-to-hotels-housing-illegal-migrants/

  28. Basically Woodrow Wilson set up the seeds of destruction of America.
    –
    -He passed the Federal Reserve Act.
    – He passed 16th amendment (Federal Income tax) got to have means to fund big government and loot.
    -Created League of Nations that morphed into United Nations.
    -Got us into World War 1 , which got us into World War 2, with endless wars to follow.

    Wilson had the most education of any President, was a known racist and elitist and Progressive, that was first to literally criticize the US Constitution.
    He had a stroke in office, which was covered up while his wife took over . He also presided over the Spanish flu epidemic, that he hid and had a massive vaccine program for troops, that some say was the cause of a massive death toll of young military aged men.
    So, high education and intelligence doesnt necessarily translate into wisdom, but actually a Innsurrection against US founders Goverment by Progressive ideological treason .

    1. I don’t think any President can pass a Constitutional Amendment but apparently Democratic Presidents can violate the Constitution with impunity.

      2. Democratic Presidents can violate the Constitution with impunity

        But that’s okay because they’re not wannabe dictators, so we’re told.

  29. London Ontario Real Estate September 2023 UPDATE Prices FALL
    Mark Mitchell – Mortgage Broker London Ontario
    1 hour ago

    London’s real estate prices dropped across the board in September, with a major flood of new inventory, and interest rates inching near 6 percent putting downward pressure on demand.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVK5MfgPfl8

    6:48.

    1. As mortgage rates near 8%, loan originators target first-time homebuyers
      LOs can no longer rely on 30-year conventional loans in this marketplace — here’s how they’re closing deals
      October 4, 2023, 3:17 pm
      By Connie Kim

      In an environment where 30-year fixed mortgage rates are racing towards 8%, loan officer pipelines are thinning dramatically.

      Originators who primarily served move-up buyers with high credit scores and strong down payments are struggling to find clients. But LOs who cater to first-time homebuyers’ needs – offering FHA loans and down payment assistance loans — are faring better, Michael Ullmann, producing branch leader at Movement Mortgage, explained.

      “So what I am seeing is that Loan Officers, myself included, who have worked a lot with first-time buyers and have working knowledge of various programs – whether it be FHA, Home Ready/Home Possible, bond programs (DPA/grant programs). They are staying busy relative to the market,” Ullmann said.
      …
      https://www.housingwire.com/articles/as-mortgage-rates-near-8-loan-originators-target-first-time-homebuyers/

      1. That’s what we want. Seriously. Keep those foreclosure hoppers full for years to come by shoehorning first time homebuyers into loans that they can barely qualify for, on a home that will surely be upside-down the moment they move in. Today’s first time how buyer is tomorrow’s investment opportunity! How I love being a vulture! Foreclosures for everyone!!!

        1. My memory could be hazy, but IIRC the last time shanty prices collapsed it was corporate America who had first dibs on them.

          1. That’s not really true. They bought bundled shacks that had already been to auction and hadn’t sold. Anyone could have paid what the seller would accept at that point. Now did they get a sweet deal buying bulk? I would hope so and so would you in that spot. Have you ever ran the logistics/expenses on bidding on lets say a hundred or five hundred shacks in 15 states in a month or two? Oh, and you can’t go inside most of them because the angry FB still lives there. I have and realized real quick what a risk I’d be taking. Fact is shacks were plentiful, abandoned even, and the loanowners didn’t want anything to do with paying for them.

          3. “They bought bundled shacks that had already been to auction and hadn’t sold. Anyone could have paid what the seller would accept at that point.”

            When no buyers are willing to pay what sellers are willing to accept, the market dries up…like the current used home market has.

  31. It was still cheaper than renting…

    https://ktla.com/news/local-news/airbnb-renter-stays-at-brentwood-home-for-more-than-a-year-without-paying/

    Remember, dont invest in yer socialist sh*thole state

    “When Elizabeth Hirschhorn’s Airbnb stay ended in April 2022, she simply didn’t move out. She’s been living there rent-free ever since, and she refused to budge unless Jovanovic paid her a relocation fee of $100,000,” the Times reports.

    Hirschhorn’s attorney told the Times that “she was not required to pay rent because the city had never approved the unit for occupancy and that its shower was constructed without a permit.”

    Because of those code violations, the city determined that Jovanovic couldn’t evict Hirschhorn, whom he claims won’t let him into the unit to bring it up to code.

    1. 😂😂 That’s friggin classic! Thanks for the afternoon rib-tickler. 🤣 Oh man….pure comedy.

  32. Press Have No Response When Matt Gaetz Lists Brutal Facts
    The Rubin Report
    Oct 4, 2023
    Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” shares a DM clip of Matt Gaetz leading the vote to oust Kevin McCarthy as the speaker of the House over his concerns about de-dollarization and McCarthy’s broken promises.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7me1WXYi6Q

    3 minutes.

  33. Market Extra
    Why the stock market might not bottom until investors surrender and jump back into bonds
    Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2023 at 1:18 p.m. ET
    First Published: Oct. 5, 2023 at 11:34 a.m. ET
    By William Watts
    Equity retreat ‘fairly ordinary’ so far: NDR’s Clissold
    Capitulation ahead?
    MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto

    It might have to get darker before there’s a dawn for stock-market bulls.

    A 7% pullback by the S&P 500 index SPX from its July 31 high has been relatively ordinary, but it’s been accompanied by a rout in the Treasury market that’s sent yields on 10-year notes and the 30-year bond to 16-year highs.

    Stocks were adding to losses Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA declined 145 points, or 0.4%, after turning negative for the year earlier this week.

    As would be expected, the stock market slump has left investors increasingly pessimistic about equities. Extreme pessimism can be a contrarian indicator, and the investor mood is now at a level that’s typically preceded strong stock-market gains, noted strategists Ed Clissold and London Stockton of Ned Davis Research, in a Wednesday research note.

    But the outlook is complicated by the Treasury market rout, with investors — unsurprisingly, given the scope of the fall — even more pessimistic toward fixed income, according to NDR’s proprietary indicators. Treasury bond futures TY00, +0.20% dropped around 17.5% from their April 6 high through midweek.

    The NDR Daily Bond Sentiment Composite is also at its lowest level since March and deep into its extreme pessimism zone, they wrote, consistent with a 4.8% annualized gain by T-bond futures.

    What’s more, simultaneous tumbles by stocks and bonds have been rare, though investors of course have fresh memories of the 2022 rout that decimated traditional portfolios split 60%/40% between the two asset classes.

    Blame it on inflation. Clissold, in a phone interview, noted that for much of the past quarter-century, stocks and bond prices moved opposite each other. Or, stocks tended to rise as Treasury yields rose.

    It was a different story before the early 1990s, when rising yields tended to accompany weakness in stocks. Then, as now, rising yields signaled the Federal Reserve would need to step in to fight inflation. In the more recent past, rising long-term yields were seen as bullish for stocks because it indicated deflationary forces were becoming less powerful,

    Clissold and Stockton observed that when investors are more pessimistic toward bonds than stocks, as they are now, bonds have tended to outperform.

    That points to two likely scenarios, they said.

    In one possible chain of events, anxiety around both stocks and bonds “turns into a full risk-off environment, where Treasury bonds rally while stocks continue to correct. Perhaps that would be part of a capitulation that leads to a year-end rally in the stock market,” Clissold and Stockton wrote.

    The stock-market selloff so far hasn’t been a “capitulation-type of event where the decline turns into a panic,” Clissold told MarketWatch. The retreat has been fairly “ordinary and broad-based” by historical standards, with the Cboe Volatility Index VIX rising but not hitting extremes and the S&P 500 not suffering a number of outsize down days.

    An event where investors go “completely risk off” would see Treasurys rally on haven-related demand, pulling down yields and relieving the sentiment differential between equities and bonds, he said. It would also see the stock market fall to the type of very deeply oversold conditions that would be expected to lead to a rally.

    Analysts at Barclays on Wednesday argued that a deeper stock-market selloff would be required to turn the tide in the bond market.

    See: ‘No magic level’: Yields won’t cool without ‘substantial’ stock selloff, says Barclays

    That’s not the only way the situation could resolve itself, however.
    …
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-stock-market-might-not-bottom-until-investors-surrender-and-jump-back-into-bonds-9d649a82

    1. “That’s not the only way the situation could resolve itself, however.”

      Scenario 2 (Professor Bear’s edition):

      Goldilocks moves in with the three bears, and they live together happily ever after.

    2. “It would also see the stock market fall to the type of very deeply oversold conditions that would be expected to lead to a rally.”

      Note to dips buyers: Don’t buy until you see very deeply oversold conditions that would be expected to lead to a rally.

  34. Mortgage rates climb to 7.49%, hurting home sales
    By Anna Bahney, CNN
    Updated 2:38 PM EDT, Thu October 5, 2023

    US mortgage rates climbed even higher this week, hitting 7.49% and pushing homeownership further out of reach for would-be homebuyers.

    That’s up from 7.31% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 6.66%.

    “Several factors, including shifts in inflation, the job market and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move, are contributing to the highest mortgage rates in a generation,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Unsurprisingly, this is pulling back homebuyer demand.”
    …
    https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/05/homes/mortgage-rates-october-5/index.html

  36. Set up my camp on private land owned by family for the weekend. Rolloff could be delivered to the house as early as 6:30am tomorrow, need to be there to receive it.

    I probably have Fridays off for the next month with the schedule of the new job I’m taking off next week.

    Between the day job and the house, today is my 31st consecutive day of working. This house isn’t going to demo and re-build itself.

    1. ” is my 31st consecutive day of working. This house isn’t going to demo and re-build itself.”

      You are truly a throwback to a greater generation.

      But take care of yourself, these body’s we’ve been loaned need water, food aand rest.

  37. ‘They’re just not getting rented. They have to really drop their prices low. My cleaning lady, she said she’s very slow. She does strictly Airbnb rentals. She’s super-slow. She cleans from Cape Canaveral to Indialantic. And she’s very, very slow. All her Airbnbs are vacant’

    This article is an example of how good journalism can still be done.

    1. All her Airbnbs are vacant’

      A cleaning lady has multiple short term rentals. A shoe shine boy moment if I ever saw one.

        1. I thought it meant the rental units were customers of her cleaning service.

          Exactly — those jobs Americans won’t do, and thus we need The Help.

  38. ‘After three long years of buying homes sight-unseen, waving due diligence and generally being subject to the whims of sellers’

    Winnahs!

    ‘buyers again have the upper hand in Manhattan’s residential market. ‘If you’re a buyer, you really have been waiting for this for a couple years,’ said UrbanDigs co-founder John Walkup. ‘You’ve got a decent amount of choice and you’ve got the market to yourself’

    That’s the spirit John!

  39. BAM! Matt Gaetz Ends McCarthy!
    The Jimmy Dore Show
    1 hour ago

    Well, he did it. As threatened, GOP Congressman Matt Gaetz has called to “vacate” the Speaker’s chair and successfully ousted Kevin McCarthy. Establishment defenders on both sides of the political spectrum are decrying the move and the “chaos” that has overtaken the GOP House caucus.

    Jimmy and guests Craig Jardula and Kurt Metzger discuss Gaetz’s willingness to embrace the wrath of the establishment of his own party.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFFEM0wEIV0

    24 minutes.

  40. ‘My husband and I were completely fooled, we were so excited’

    You got fooked by yer emotions Louise.

  42. Re: it’s still possible to buy single-family homes for less than $1 million

    It is interesting how these days people so casually talk in terms of millions. To paraphrase late Sen. Dirksen, ““A million here, a million there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.”

    Ah, the magic of legalized counterfeit money . . .

  43. Dick Butkus, Fearsome Hall of Fame Chicago Bears Linebacker, Dies at 80

    AP
    5 Oct 2023

    Butkus, a middle linebacker for the Chicago Bears whose speed and ferocity set the standards for the position in the modern era, has died, the team announced Thursday. He was 80.

    According to a statement released by the team, Butkus’ family confirmed that he died in his sleep overnight at his home in Malibu, California.

    Miller Lite, 1984 09 02, Bubba Smith and Dick Butkus polo

    https://youtu.be/HYfgvPKOnTA?si=zNU_c8ScquLpAxRi

  45. Auden B. Cabello
    @CabelloAud
    Spotted in Piedras Negras by @efraiinGzz, unmarked police vehicle transporting migrants to the river.

    The only identification on the pickup was the red letters on the license plates.

    They don’t want them in Piedras Negras, so they help them get through as quick as possible so… Show more

    https://x.com/CabelloAuden/status/1709916465544265954?s=20

  46. Very few are using the D word.

    Be Prepared, Folks…
    [Comments enabled]
    Deflation, in size, is coming.

    I know this is an “outlying” opinion.

    But it is inevitable for one reason above all others: The other alternative is the economic and political collapse of the nation.

    The market is telling you it will not be collapse – it will be deflation.

    Why?

    Because the dollar isn’t in the toilet. And it won’t go there either.

    Powell lacks the stones to publicly tell Congress to either cut the deficit spending or the market is going to take away the rate question from The Fed entirely and, in fact, it always has in that The Fed has always, historically, followed market rates. They maintain the illusion of it being otherwise because without that what can The Fed sell the public as their value, never mind the so-called “independent” central bank?

    Nothing.

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker

    1. Finance
      Why borrowing costs for nearly everything are surging, and what it means for you
      Published Thu, Oct 5 2023 1:33 PM EDT
      Updated Thu, Oct 5 2023 8:09 PM EDT
      Hugh Son

      Key Points

      – At the center of the storm of this week’s market turmoil is the 10-year Treasury yield, one of the most influential numbers in finance.

      – The yield, which represents borrowing costs for issuers of bonds, has climbed steadily in recent weeks and reached 4.8% Tuesday, a level last seen just before the 2008 financial crisis.

      – “Unfortunately, I do think there has to be some pain for the average American now,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector investing at Goldman Sachs asset and wealth management.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/05/why-borrowing-costs-for-nearly-everything-are-surging.html

    2. Gilts
      Bond market sell-off sends UK long-term borrowing cost to 25-year high
      Rate tops level last seen after Liz Truss mini-budget as fears of global inflation and US political instability spook markets
      Phillip Inman and Graeme Wearden
      Wed 4 Oct 2023 07.36 EDT
      Last modified on Wed 4 Oct 2023 14.30 EDT

      Britain’s long-term cost of borrowing has hit its highest level since 1998, as political instability in the US and fears of sustained high levels of inflation triggered a sell-off in global bond markets.

      The yield, or interest rate, on 30-year UK government bonds hit 5.115% early on Wednesday, according to the financial data provider Refinitiv.

      The rise, which takes the UK’s borrowing costs above the level seen a year ago in the crisis after Liz Truss’s mini-budget, follows growing concerns that central banks will keep interest rates at high levels through 2024 and possibly into 2025.

      With most governments borrowing huge sums throughout the coronavirus pandemic and to cushion the blow over the last year from high energy prices, traders expect countries with high levels of debt to struggle financially.

      An increase in US government borrowing and political instability after the removal of the US House speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday pushed Treasury yields to a 16-year high.

      Germany has also found itself in traders’ sight lines amid reports of strains within its ruling coalition, pushing the 10-year German yield to its highest level in 12 years. The interest rate on the country’s benchmark 10-year debt rose above 3% for the first time since 2011, while its 30-year yield also hit a 12-year high.

      European stocks, which have tracked downwards over the last two months, remained calm despite the rout in bond markets but analysts warned that equity valuations and souring appetites for risky assets meant further falls were likely over the coming weeks.

      Susannah Streeter, the head of money and markets at the investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Chill winds of worry are swirling about high interest rates settling in and there is set to be little respite from the sell-off.
      …
      https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/04/bond-market-sell-off-sends-uk-long-term-borrowing-cost-to-25-year-high

    3. Opinion
      As interest rates rise, our wild borrowing might finally bite back
      By Catherine Rampell
      Columnist|
      October 5, 2023 at 6:15 p.m. EDT
      The National Debt Clock in New York. (Yana Paskova/For The Washington Post)

      With long-term interest rates surging in the past few weeks, a fiscal reckoning could now be approaching — faster and sooner than anyone in Washington is prepared for.

      Let me guess: You’ve heard this story before. For decades, scolds have warned that running huge budget deficits year after year was “unsustainable,” and yet for a long time, the situation kept, well, sustaining itself.

      U.S. debt swelled, reaching roughly 100 percent of the size of the overall economy in 2020. This happened seemingly without consequence to anyone — not the federal government, not markets, not the overall U.S. economy and definitely not normal consumers, for whom this whole fiscal debate probably looks like an abstract morality play. Despite mounting debt, the world was still willing to lend to the U.S. government on the cheap. Which meant U.S. consumers and businesses could borrow on the cheap, too.

      But something shifted this summer: The government’s long-term borrowing costs started climbing. The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury touched 4.8 percent earlier this week, up from 3.3 percent six months earlier. Those long-term rates are now hovering around 16-year highs and are generally much higher than budget watchers had been forecasting.

      This means that however ugly the fiscal forecasts looked before, they could still be too optimistic.

      Exactly why long-term rates have risen so much so fast is unclear. The answer doesn’t seem related to inflation (or the Federal Reserve’s inflation response, which focuses on short-term interest rates), since long-term inflation expectations have stayed quite stable. Rather, economists have suggested it’s likely due to a combination of other things. These include U.S. budget deficits, the Fed shrinking its balance sheet (which means selling off longer-term Treasury securities), yet another rating agency’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt (plus a signal that the one rating agency holding out on a downgrade might join in, too), political dysfunction, and assorted international factors.

      Whatever the cause, if this keeps up, things could get very hairy in the next few years.
      …
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/05/interest-rate-rising-national-debt-consequences/

    4. Fast Money
      JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic braces for 20% market plunge, delivers recession warning
      Published Thu, Oct 5 2023 8:22 PM EDT
      Stephanie Landsman
      In this article

      JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic is bracing for a 20% sell-off to hit the S&P 500.

      According to the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer, high interest rates are creating a breaking point for stocks — and choosing cash at a 5.5% return in money market and short-term Treasurys is a key protection strategy right now.

      “I’m not sure how we’re going to avoid it [recession] if we stay at this level of interest rates,” the firm’s chief market strategist and global research co-head told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/05/jpmorgans-kolanovic-warning-20percent-stock-market-plunge-ahead-recession.html

    5. Long bonds are cratering – with the asset class racking up losses that rival the 2008 stock-market crash
      George Glover
      Oct 5, 2023, 4:51 AM CDT
      10-year US Treasurys have plunged 46% since March 2020 in a rout that rivals the losses stocks suffered during the 2008 financial crisis.
      Oli Scarff/Getty Images

      – Longer-duration bonds have plummeted in recent weeks, with key yields nearing 5%.

      – The rout means 10-year US Treasury prices have now plunged 46% since March 2020, per Bloomberg.

      – That sell-off rivals some of the worst-ever financial market crashes, including the 2008 crisis.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/bonds-crash-stock-market-outlook-financial-crisis-dot-com-bubble-2023-10

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