Agents Are Showing A Lot Of Price Reductions And Offers Below The Asking Price Are Becoming More Common
A report from the Boston Globe. “The short-term rental platform Airbnb has come a long way from its 2007 roots. A glut of listings — and a range of hosting types to match — has driven some communities to institute new policies governing the practice. And in New England, where second-home owners are known to rent for months at a time through ski season, whether or not to enter the market comes with a snowplow full of logistical concerns, too. ‘I think that people think it’s really lucrative, and it’s not,’ said Cheryl Loiselle of West Newbury, who bought a home in North Conway, N.H. ‘We spend a lot of money just making sure the place is … perfect. We need to be in pristine condition all of the time, because if you get a bad review, you’re basically dead.'”
“‘If they’re thinking that they’re going to come into the market and just kill it, and 100 percent of their bills are going to be paid for, it’s probably not the time right now,’ said Kelly Coleman, who operates Kelton Collective, a property management company based in Jamaica, Vt., that coordinates short-term rentals. ‘We are going to start seeing a number of folks who maybe bought in 2020 putting homes back on the market because they weren’t expecting there to be so much work involved.’ Coleman said hosts who have gilded homes in luxury finishes may do better to hold off for now. ‘We’re seeing those homes that were $1,000, $1,500 a night, and they have every single luxury item that you could have imagined — we’re seeing them still on the market now for $275-$300 a night,’ she said.”
Boise Dev in Idaho. “Like the rest of the country, the Treasure Valley’s real estate market surged and slowed in recent years based on a complicated set of factors. Cost for materials was a major driver of home costs skyrocketing during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. These materials prices, especially lumber, have now largely normalized back to near pre-pandemic levels from their sky-high rates, but now builders are having to navigate a new landscape where high-interest rates are adding tens of thousands to home prices. And as a result, potential buyers are waiting to see a change before they’re willing to put down a down payment.”
“According to the latest MLS data available last month, the median price for a home in Ada County was $520,000 in August, down a typical 3% from seasonal summer price highs in July. It’s down year-over-year 8% from last August. Before the pandemic, $600 per thousand board feet was expensive for lumber. Prices jumped up to well over $1,200 per thousand board feet last year, which Idaho Pacific Lumber Company’s Vice President of Purchasing and Sales Scott Sunday says was driven by 2021’s ‘shock to the system.’ ‘It was never going to stay in those ranges, although you had some producers that were thinking it would trade that way forever, but it never does,’ he said. ‘It always works its way up and down. It had to adjust.'”
“Gene Harding stopped building for six months while interest rates climbed, even as material prices started dropping. His company, Harding Homes, is now paying tens of thousands of dollars less for lumber than he was at the height of the market last year, but high-interest rates are forcing him to switch up his strategy to keep selling homes. A house at the high point in the lumber market would cost $70,000 in materials and now is down to $30,000, plus framers cut their rates in half as they try to dig up business in a slowing market. ‘Our sales are pretty vibrant. Not flying off the shelves, but I don’t think that was a healthy market for a buyer back when the market was so crazy because we would sell our inventory out before we finished,’ he said.”
The Real Deal on California. “An Encino-based investor has declared bankruptcy on a Beverly Hills mansion that sits adjacent to the Los Angeles Country Club golf course, The Real Deal has learned. Kaysan Ghasseminejad, through an entity called K3B Enterprises, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on the property on July 10, court records show. In the latest monthly financial declarations for the bankruptcy estate from early September, Ghasseminejad declared total liabilities and equity at $15 million. On the same day that Ghasseminejad declared bankruptcy on the Beverly Hills property, he also filed a Chapter 11 petition for 17835 Ventura Boulevard, a three-story medical office building in Encino. The property was put up for sale in September.”
“In June, lender Sunwest Bank filed a notice of default on the home, claiming that Ghasseminejad had fallen behind on $5.3 million in debt. Ghasseminejad secured the original $4.9 million mortgage on the asset in March. Ghasseminejad bought the home for $13 million in May of 2019, property records show. The bankruptcy of 9996 Sunset adds to the list of distressed residential properties in Los Angeles’ most expensive residential neighborhoods. Last month, developer Elite Management Group filed for bankruptcy after it was sued for fraud in relation to an unfinished mansion in Bel Air. In August last year, spec home developer Mohamed Hadid filed for bankruptcy on 9650 Cedarbrook Drive, a planned 78,000-square-foot home that was once on the market for $250 million.”
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “An ambitious plan to turn a parking lot next to the West Oakland BART station into 1,032 apartments is on life support after its developer lost the property to foreclosure last week. An affiliate of Columbia Pacific Advisors took over ownership of 500 Kirkham St. on Oct. 2 after a foreclosure, property records show. Developer Panoramic Interests lost the site after receiving approval for what would have been one of the largest apartment projects in the Bay Area. It’s now among dozens of Bay Area property owners who have lost their buildings to foreclosure, defaulted on mortgages or sold at a loss. Financing a project that touted its proximity to downtowns was no longer appealing for lenders or equity partners. ‘There’s no market for it now,’ said Patrick Kennedy, owner of Panoramic Interests.”
Community Impact on Texas. “A slew of projects have brought thousands of new multifamily units to the Austin market over the last several years. Jordan Brooks, a senior market analyst with national and local apartment data collector ALN Apartment Data, said Austin’s multifamily unit supply is set to remain high through at least 2024. Austin ranks eighth in the country for cities with the most new units under construction. As of September in Austin, there were: 63,882 units under preconstruction, 41,071 units under construction, 10,124 units under lease-up, or being filled, 17,364 units under construction/lease-up.”
“Still, demand hasn’t quite kept up with supply this year, according to data from ALN. As of September, there were almost 20,000 more multifamily units delivered than absorbed, or leased. ‘We’re in this period right now of kind of prolonged stubbornly low apartment demand,’ Brooks said. ‘There’s so much up in the air right now in terms of the economy, but certainly over the next six or nine months it’s hard to see how occupancies are going to bounce back in a positive direction. If that doesn’t happen, then it’s hard to see how rent growth would really reverse course either.'”
From Bloomberg. “AustralianSuper Pty, the country’s largest pension fund, is facing further losses on US property assets as a lender prepares to take back a vacant Washington, DC office tower it owns with Brookfield Corp. The 12-story building in the US capital is now controlled by Starwood Property Trust Inc., which provided a $120 million loan to the property, said two people familiar with the matter. Starwood has been in talks to either find a new tenant for the early 1990s-built tower, which has been unoccupied for some time, or convert it into apartments, the people said.”
“Broker estimates suggest the Washington offices have suffered heavy valuation losses, while Brookfield reports show the mall’s value has fallen by about $800 million in the past two years. ‘Property is a tale of two halves. There’s always something that is not doing well, and we have some legacy assets that fall into that bucket and are working to respond to these challenges,’ AustralianSuper Head of Mid Risk Portfolios Jason Peasley said in an emailed response to questions. ‘In the US office sector in particular, we are holding assets at far less than what we bought them for several years earlier.'”
The Wall Street Journal. “Goldman Sachs has agreed to sell specialty lender GreenSky to a group of investors, a major step in what has become a costly retreat from the Wall Street bank’s grand ambitions to serve the masses. GreenSky will continue to originate loans that are mostly geared toward consumers making home renovations. Goldman bought GreenSky just last year for about $1.7 billion and is selling at a fraction of that. While Goldman didn’t disclose the purchase price, people familiar with the matter say it equates to something in the neighborhood of $500 million.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Another flurry of new listings arrived on the Toronto-area real estate market this week following the Thanksgiving long weekend. New listings surged 44.1 per cent in September compared with the same month last year. ‘It is a tough market. There’s a lot of buyer hesitation still,’ says Andre Kutyan, broker with Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd. Mr. Kutyan recently showed a house to a couple with stable employment who are looking to sell their $2.5-million property in order to move up into the $3.5-million range. The couple agree the house is exactly what they’re looking for, in the school district they prefer, but they’ve decided to wait to see what happens with prices. ‘They don’t feel any urgency to buy,’ says Mr. Kutyan. ‘It either has to be really special or a deal.'”
“Davelle Morrison, broker with Bosley Real Estate, says some houses are sitting a little longer in the east end of Toronto, where she does much of her business. Sellers with asking prices around the $1-million level are setting offer dates, but in many cases the house is still on the market the following day, she says. That price segment often attracts a cohort of buyers trying to move up to a house from a condo unit, she points out. If they’re attempting to sell the condo first, they may be competing with a lot of other listings. ‘The condo market is really flooded right now,’ she says.”
“The condo market is seeing a rush of supply as investors sell their rental units in the face of rising carrying costs. ‘I think the interest rates have really beaten people down.’ She’s seeing prices reduced as a result. ‘The new term is ‘price improvement,’ she says.”
Blog TO in Canada. “Along with the fact that far fewer homes have been changing hands in recent months, there some other indicators that the GTA’s housing market is in a steep downturn, though prices are not exactly letting up to match the decline in activity. For one thing, homes have been sitting on the market for way longer than they used to back in the days where prospective buyers needed to have a deposit in hand and their bidding war elbows out upon first viewing a place.”
“Also, when they do sell, homes are going for far less than their listing price, with many owners forced to accept less than they’d hoped for in light of high interest rates and the more sluggish market they’ve spawned — for some, selling is not an option but a necessity as their mortgage renewal date at a higher rate approaches. According to a new report from Zoocasa, while real estate in some parts of the province is now selling for an average of 10 per cent less than the prices they are listed at, in others, the trend is far more drastic, with buyers only willing to offer about 58 per cent of the advertised price as of September 2023.”
“Across the region, the phenomenon appears to be the most extreme in the places where homes are most expensive, such as Caledon and Halton Hills. The former municipality has the second-highest average listing price in the GTA at $2,365,199, but also the second-greatest difference between that and the average selling price, which is $1,363,853, or a whopping 42.12 per cent less. The disparity is also vast in Uxbridge, which had the third-highest average listing price last month ($2,119,398) but also the third-biggest discrepancy between that and the average selling price, which was 37.5 per cent less, or $1,324,645. Also high on the list was Aurora, the sixth-most pricey community analyzed, where listing prices were an average of 32.69 per cent loftier than actual sale prices last month ($1,897,654 vs. $1,277,312). Then came Burlington, with listing prices 31.89 per cent above selling prices ($1,540,694 vs. $1,049,263).”
Scottish Construction Now. “House prices in Scotland continued to fall according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Residential Market Survey with further falls expected over the coming three months. A net balance of -20% of respondents in Scotland said that house prices fell over the past three months, compared to -17% in August, and -9% in July. In saying that, Scotland though continues to be in a stronger position than most other UK regions. The overall UK price balance sits at -69%, and all regions of the UK had more negative balances than Scotland, except for Northern Ireland.”
“Looking at demand, this figure worsened through September. A net balance of -37% of Scottish respondents reported that new buyer enquiries fell. This is compared to -29% the month previous. In terms of the sales market, Alan Kennedy MRICS, of Shepherd Chartered Surveyors, in Fraserburgh, commented: ‘The local market has slowed in recent times though buyer demand in some sectors remains strong and realistically priced properties are still selling at or around Home Report values. Local estate agents are showing a lot of price reductions, indicative of difficult market conditions.’ Ian Morton MRICS of Bradburne & Co, in St Andrews, added: ‘The slowdown in activity is marked and offers below the asking price are becoming more common. It is turning to a buyers’ market as values lower.'”
From ABC News. “China’s property market is facing a ‘sharp deterioration’ which could lead to financial stress domestically, and ultimately affect its trade with Australia. ‘If you can’t make any money on property in China, which you can’t, you’re going to get more and more Chinese investors looking around and thinking, ‘where can we still make 10 per cent a year for doing nothing?’ said Rabobank’s global strategist Michael Every. ‘And the answer is in Australian property.'”
From CNN. “Fears that Evergrande’s debt woes are spreading into the wider financial industry have sparked a run on a regional bank in northern China, multiple state media outlets have reported. Depositors lined up at the bank in Cangzhou, in Hebei province, to withdraw their money, according to photos and videos circulated online this week, prompting an appeal for calm by officials. Police in Cangzhou have arrested ‘many people’ suspected of spreading rumors that the bank was suffering a cash crunch because of its exposure to Evergrande, Yicai, a state-owned media outlet, reported on Wednesday, citing an officer deployed at the bank.”
“Posts on Chinese social media reviewed by CNN claimed that the Bank of Cangzhou had lent billions of yuan in loans to Evergrande, the indebted property giant that defaulted on its debt in 2021 and is struggling to survive. The bank has a statement from the city government posted at its entrance, assuring the public that their deposits are safe, Yicai said. ‘[We urge] financial consumers to make rational judgments and to avoid losing interest on your deposits due to rumors,’ according to a photo of the statement posted by the media outlet.”
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You will own nothing.
in some parts of the province is now selling for an average of 10 per cent less than the prices they are listed at, in others, the trend is far more drastic, with buyers only willing to offer about 58 per cent of the advertised price as of September 2023. Across the region, the phenomenon appears to be the most extreme in the places where homes are most expensive, such as Caledon and Halton Hills. The former municipality has the second-highest average listing price in the GTA at $2,365,199, but also the second-greatest difference between that and the average selling price, which is $1,363,853, or a whopping 42.12 per cent less’
I don’t think I’ve ever seen the difference between asking and closed drop this much so fast. I had to read it a couple of times. Some serious a$$ pounding going on in Ontario.
“I don’t think I’ve ever seen the difference between asking and closed drop this much so fast…”
Got negative bid wars? It’s time for buyers to roll out the serial lowball offer strategies…
‘plus framers cut their rates in half as they try to dig up business in a slowing market’
Half? Wa happened to my labor shortage Gene?
The real fun starts when starving UHSs start undercutting each other on commissions.
I’m sure we’re well into that phase.
Well, good. Maybe next year I can start on a few more home repairs.
Meanwhile, the two houses on my street are still not occupied.
For the grandmas-finally-died house, I saw the owner doing some kind of reno which entails moving appliances out of the kitchen. Not sure why, since it was recently fixed up and it rented out for only a year. Possibly a water leak/new drywall?
The no-basement cash-buy house is still empty, and not on the market. I’m surprised they have dropped the rent, just to bring in even a little cash. Maybe they’re afraid the house will be trashed by renters?
No Handyman Jobs! People are BROKE!
Utube Handyman
Oct 2, 2023
I guess I was spoiled with the abundance of jobs these past few years. Well, I guess that has come to an end…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJTOxnL_nBw
13 minutes.
Some comments:
I’ve been a tradesman over 20yrs I can tell you things are worse than I’ve ever seen them in that time, good luck to everyone.
My father is an excavator and has been telling me his phone has been ringing much less. Then the jobs he does get as soon as he is finished the people are challenging the prices and refusing to pay. He has received numerous complaints to the county and state from the customers. He has been in business for 30 years and told me the last time something like this happened was in 2008. He works in a very high income county and even they seem to be running out of money.
You brought up thinking something was wrong with your phone and my dad has called me multiple times to check that his phone was still working.
As a licensed Home Inspector, this is my worst year in 14 years. The economy is terrible, but the housing market is the worst. One thing I will point out to you, all of those customers that you were too busy to reply to when you were busy, that was a mistake. You could have established a relationship with some of them and maybe some of the others would be reaching out now or in the future. Always touch base with the client that reaches out. Even if you’re too busy, take advantage of the opportunity. Good luck moving forward my friend.
It’s scary how fast this happens. We feel it in our business as well and I own a hair salon!
I am a handyman myself. When I started out, my fee was $ 75 to show up and do something small, and get a good review. It’s gotten so bad that I’m doing that again. Everything you listed in this video is spot on. I’m getting undercut at every turn, and my main customers are not spending any money. I’m scared ! This reminds me of 2008 a lot ! Even scarier, I think this is just the start of a long, painful economic time. A lot of people are going to go out of business if it stays like this for very long.
I am a mechanic and the past few weeks there has been a change big time. Nobody has money anymore and if it’s not covered under warranty (free) people don’t want it.
I’m the owner of a small painting company and I’ve been noticing the same thing. It’s been like 5-6 months of really small job and noticed also ppl are looking for cheap prices. Everything is also like 30% more so how can I lower prices! Crazy times thanks for the video!
I’m a contractor. I’m experiencing the same. Business completely dropped off about 10-12 days ago. I’ve done 2 jobs this week and it’s Thursday. My typical week back in 2022 would’ve been 30-35 jobs. Things aren’t looking good.
I thought my phone was broken too. I had a family member call to check. Everything is for a season. This will weed out competition, especially the bad ones. Survive this brother, and it will be sunny days waiting for you on the other side.
Yeah man, I hear ya. I do bathroom remodeling. Ever since about this time last year all my paid advertising pretty much completely stopped producing. I doubled and tripled down on my paid ads with no results! I’m barely scraping by now. I just gave an estimate to a realtor for about 25% less than what would normally be a really good deal, so they were getting it for a steal, and they said my price was not in their budget! I was shocked. Why would they even get an estimate if they cant afford a complete, luxury bathroom overhaul for a little under $14k?? I don’t have employees anymore so I can afford to be cheap but any other legit contractor would quote that same job over $30k!
People were hyper-focused on their homes in the aftermath of covid. Between staying home, quarantines, and work from home many people decided to upgrade their living situation. That had to wear off eventually though. There are only so many things one can upgrade and things are back to normal now. You basically started your handyman business in the middle of a housing bubble.
$30K for a bathroom remodel? Do I get a car with that?
Listen to the contractors, not what the lying media says about the real economic conditions out there.
Commercial electrical work is staying busy enough, for now. Service calls, small to medium size tenant finishes, that hasn’t dried up yet.
all of those customers that you were too busy to reply to when you were busy, that was a mistake. You could have established a relationship with some of them and maybe some of the others would be reaching out now or in the future. Always touch base with the client that reaches out. Even if you’re too busy, take advantage of the opportunity.
Networking is an important skill to learn but you must be genuine, do it when you don’t need to, and reciprocate.
Electricians seem to be in the shortest supply right now. Probably the requirements are comparatively more difficult to complete. And I suspect that electrical has not been flooded with illegal immigrant labor as trades such as landscaping, drywall, painting, or powerwashing were.
Electrical, heat and plumbing are essential. And when those go south you can make a claim against HO insurance. A new floor, fancy countertops, new hot tub in the backyard…..say goodbye to those days.
The problem is now most tradesmen have gotten used to and now rely upon charging customers $150 an hour and up during the time of high demand. They can’t go back. Going forward if there’s jobs to be had the ones getting those jobs will have to bid them at normal pricing, which is 30 to 50 percent less. Most won’t survive on that even if they stay busy. A lot of BK moving forward in the construction industry.
‘We’re seeing those homes that were $1,000, $1,500 a night, and they have every single luxury item that you could have imagined — we’re seeing them still on the market now for $275-$300 a night,’ she said.”
Die, speculator scum.
What a surprise to learn AirBnB was started at the top of the last sh$t bubble.
We used to call them vacation rentals before that.
Airbnb created an app and greased some palms.
Cost for materials was a major driver of home costs skyrocketing during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.
That’s like saying the trees waving make the wind blow. “Skyrocketing costs” were due to arbitrary lockdowns and the Fed’s debasement of the currency.
Kissinger: Europe made grave mistake on immigration (Remind me, Henry: what role did globalists like yourself play in flooding the West with unassimilable benefits spongers?)
https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/europe-made-a-grave-mistake-on-immigration-kissinger/
The world will be a better place when he’s dead.
Yeah, even Jimmy Carter disliked Henry, something about him tooting his own horn too much,and and too long….
Watching the second real estate market slowdown since Ben started posting here, I have to say that both times the market adjustment process seemed astoundingly slow at the outset: like watching paint dry. We are roughly in line with 2007 right now, which is about when things started to become more interesting. But it took half a decade from there for the housing bust to play out, so don’t hold your breath while watching this slow motion train wreck!
Tell your loved ones to circle the wagons and hunker down. It’s gonna be painful for a while.
It’s going to take a while, people still have too much equity in their homes, at least on paper. Virtually every pre-covid buyer gained 100K on their home, no matter where they live or what they paid. Of course this is a generalization but it’s pretty much like this. We need the foreclosures, fire sales, short sales, estate sales etc to start hitting the market, with these 8% rates, and that will make price discovery easy.
100k can disappear fast. But I agree, it takes time with this. I sat on the sidelines with cash last time and didn’t start pulling the trigger on deals until 2010. Sold my last property then in late 2005. So about 4 and half years of waiting for it to unwind. Can’t imagine what it was like to go through that time period for folks who didn’t prepare and thought the party would last forever. Had to be brutal. It would be far better for those who haven’t prepared for the market to crash quickly. The prolonged ride to the bottom is a killer.
I will stay this about the waiting this time around. Making 5% plus on your cash is gonna make it a lot easier than last time.
‘Making 5% plus on your cash is gonna make it a lot easier than last time’
As will having 15 years of zero rates that speculators considered everlasting.
Yeah, but who wants to borrow against that equity at 8%? Wouldn’t it work better to just use your credit card, pay it off monthly, and collect your frequent flyer miles?
New United Nations Report Signals Need for Mud and Grass Huts by 2050
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/11/new-united-nations-report-signals-need-for-mud-and-grass-huts-by-2050/
It’s all a big ‘conspiracy theory’ that by 2050 we shall be living in mud and grass huts, eating a meat-free diet and giving up most forms of personal transport. Maybe we might not believe it if global elites stopped writing copious reports detailing all these lifestyle changes, which are said to be needed to move to Net Zero. The latest such report comes from the United Nations, which sets out a collectivist global vision of primary building materials consisting of mud bricks, bamboo and forest “detritus”.
According to the UN, the world needs to move to “regenerative material practices” using “ethically produced” low carbon earth and bio-based building materials. Examples include mud bricks, timber, bamboo and agricultural and forest detritus. The report harks back to the middle of the last century when the vast majority of cultures built large buildings and cities out of indigenous earthen, stone and bio-based materials, including timber, cane, thatch and bamboo. Contrasting modern concrete, steel and glass buildings, it observes that “massive mud buildings have been maintained for centuries with their structures intact”.
(There is more to the article but too much more to post here.)
“global elites”
They’re not “elite” in any way. They are the non-producing Parasite Class.
I wonder how many global elites actually live in mud and grass huts that they constructed with their own baby soft hands?
+1 for the “baby soft hands” reference.
Pecking on a keyboard, tapping on a phone screen, shuffling papers around a desk, all while consuming food and energy produced by the actual producers.
I’m proud to say I have never been on a Zoom call, and never will be.
Has inflation finally settled down to the Fed’s 2% target, giving them some breathing room to slow the pace of future interest rate hikes?
Stock Market Today
Dow Jones Futures Rise On Hot CPI Inflation Data; Domino’s Slides On Weak Sales
SCOTT LEHTONEN 08:55 AM ET 10/12/2023
Dow Jones futures extended their gains Thursday after the Labor Department’s hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge. Meanwhile, Domino’s stock slid on weak sales numbers.
Consumer prices rose 0.4% for September, higher than the 0.3% estimate, with an annual increase of 3.7%, also hotter than the expected 3.6% expectation. Core inflation held steady, up 0.3% for the month, in line with estimates, with a 4.1% rise in annual prices that also matched expectations.
…
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-cpi-inflation-data-jobless-claims-dominos-slides-on-earnings/
“Consumer prices rose 0.4% for September,…”
Annualized rate of consumer price inflation is 1.004^12 – 1 = 4.9%.
Most grocery products I buy have to be on sale, and it’s usually some 2 for 1 price. There are entire categories of food I no longer purchase, including most ‘branded’ products. Luckily I live in the midwest and there are lots of small local producers in most grocery stores – the mennonite eggs (LOL on the comments here), bakery products, and being in the corn belt, there are LOTS of hog products everywhere. Oscar Mayer bacon is $8.99 a lbs, but the small distributer is about half the price, and is better bacon. Same for cheese, being so close to WI, there is relatively cheap quality cheese everywhere. Seafood and out of season produce tend to be more expensive.
The stock market likes to climb a wall of worry — but now that’s crumbling
Published: Oct. 12, 2023 at 7:05 a.m. ET
By Mark Hulbert
comments
Market-timers are eagerly buying this rally — a signal for contrarian-minded investors to step aside.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
The U.S. stock market’s rally is most likely a counter-trend advance within a longer-term downtrend. That’s the conclusion I reached after analyzing how quickly many on Wall Street have turned bullish in recent days. The hallmark of a more sustainable advance is one that initially is met with widespread skepticism, but that hasn’t been the case now.
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-likes-to-climb-a-wall-of-worry-but-now-thats-crumbling-22a23a1f
Financial Times
US economy
US inflation higher than expected in September
Latest consumer price index data raises prospect of further rate rise from Federal Reserve
A customer shops for dairy-free products at an Amazon Fresh grocery store in Illinois
The consumer price index rose 3.7 per cent year on year in September
Nicholas Megaw in New York 31 minutes ago
US inflation was higher than forecast in September, raising the prospect that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates following similarly robust recent data on the strength of the jobs market.
The consumer price index rose 3.7 per cent year on year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the same pace as the previous month. Economists had expected a slight decline.
…
Financial Times
32 minutes ago
Treasury yields rise as elevated inflation keeps Fed rate rise in play
Kate Duguid in New York
US stock futures dropped and Treasury yields rose after September’s CPI data was released, showing inflation was higher than forecast at an unchanged 3.7 per cent year on year.
Futures tracking the S&P 500 swung into negative territory, having been 0.4 per cent higher before the release of the inflation figures.
The two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, rose 0.07 percentage points to 5.08 per cent, though it remained within recent trading ranges.
Longer-dated Treasuries trimmed some of their advance from earlier in the session as yields rose. Bond prices rise as yields fall.
Traders modestly increased bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates another time before year-end, though the odds remain around 50/50.
…
10yr yield back to 4.7. That short reprieve didn’t last long. Still calling for 30yr mortgage rates to be pushing 9% before the end of the year.
“Depositors lined up at the bank in Cangzhou, in Hebei province, to withdraw their money, according to photos and videos circulated online this week, prompting an appeal for calm by officials.”
Bank runs are so 1930s…
Waiting for Chinese bank runs to turn to bank sprints. Tick-tock, CCP MFers!
Electronic bank runs are harder to counteract. Measures like suspending debit card withdrawals of foreign currency are a huge red flag of trouble brewing in the financial system.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-09/major-egypt-banks-suspend-debit-card-use-in-foreign-currency
“Remain calm – all is well!”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/12/economy/china-bank-run-evergrande-intl-hnk/index.html
Gosh, as the #2 donor to the Democrat Party, how would SBF get the idea he could commit fraud with impunity?
https://dnyuz.com/2023/10/12/sam-bankman-fried-didnt-think-rules-applied-to-him-ex-girlfriend-says/
I’m not following her testimony, but I’m getting a LOT of revenge vibes from her, more romantic than financial. SBF should be grateful that there isn’t any, *ahem*, “film footage” of the two of them. 😲
Those revenge vibes have created a nice opening for SBF’s attorneys to allege she brought down FTX in retaliation for their breakup.
I am trying very hard to pay no attention to this trial, but it certainly is magnetically lurid.
Hysterical two sentences from a ZH article: “Bloomberg said Thursday that Ellison looked ‘more relaxed than in previous days’ of testimony. We guess once you’ve detailed how you used the IDs of Thai hookers to set up fake crypto accounts to bribe the Chinese government, the rest of the fraud admissions just seem like easy work and just kinda roll off the tongue.”
SBF should be grateful that there isn’t any, *ahem*, “film footage” of the two of them.
Are you sure about that?
Eye bleach may be necessary.
I was thinking the same thing; we may hear about her (or someone on her behalf) posting any tapes to the intertubes. Hence the 😗. I imagine it would derail the trial. Could the prosecutors use her earlier depositions as evidence and hope that the jury ignores any tendencies toward romantic revenge?
IMO, her motivation doesn’t matter. She’s either provided enough evidence or she hasn’t. Regarding the use of depositions in court proceedings, I’ll refer you to Federal Rules of Civil Procedure Rule 32.
Ignore my previous post. This is a criminal rather than civil proceeding with different rules.
The Wall Street Journal
Currencies
Crypto Is Still the Wild West Almost a Year After FTX Collapse
Regulations aren’t happening as digital currencies have endangered individual investors—not the whole financial system
By Dave Michaels
Oct. 11, 2023 5:30 am ET
You may also like
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is on trial for fraud and conspiracy charges after the collapse of his crypto empire last year. WSJ’s Alexander Osipovich breaks down what happened to FTX and what to look for as the trial unfolds.
Photo illustration: Annie Zhao
The collapse of crypto exchange FTX wiped out millions of its customers’ crypto holdings and turned its billionaire founder into a pariah now facing criminal fraud charges in New York.
But the fall of Sam Bankman-Fried and his Bahamas-based exchange, which at its peak held more than $10 billion in customer deposits, hasn’t fundamentally changed how crypto works or is regulated. The sector is still the Wild West of finance.
Terrorists and money launderers use cryptocurrencies to cover their tracks. Hackers frequently find ways to steal digital coins. Worldwide trading is still concentrated in a huge offshore exchange, Binance, which has been accused of some of the same risky practices as FTX.
Although it roiled the crypto world, FTX’s collapse didn’t alter the legal and regulatory landscape. Unlike past crises that spurred U.S. lawmakers into action, this one has legislators divided over how, and even whether, to address crypto markets.
Instead, regulators have pursued a piecemeal enforcement campaign designed to impose Wall Street’s rules on crypto—a move the biggest crypto exchanges, such as Binance, are fighting in court.
The upshot is that another FTX could happen—and investors could be the losers again.
“Of course it could happen again, because there is nothing to stop it,” said John Reed Stark, a former enforcement official at the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Granted, some of the challenge with regulating crypto stems from its global nature. The biggest exchanges are offshore, and Americans still find ways to trade on them. Almost 20% of Binance’s customers were in the U.S. in 2020, despite the exchange’s not being eligible to serve traders here, according to regulatory lawsuits.
FTX and Binance both started in Asia and hopped from one country to another to stay ahead of regulatory clampdowns. FTX eventually landed in a crypto haven, the Bahamas, that didn’t effectively regulate it. Binance claims it has no headquarters.
Another possible reason FTX hasn’t led to more action? For all the hype around it, crypto is still small—with a global market capitalization of about $1 trillion—compared with mainstream markets and the financial system. So while individual investors are often at risk, the sector hasn’t so far posed a systemic danger.
While bitcoin’s price has risen since last year, venture capitalists have reined in their support since FTX’s downfall. U.S. banks don’t fund crypto, limiting its consumer reach and the knock-on effects of market turmoil.
The potential risks to individual investors, though, are behind ongoing efforts by the SEC to bring the sector to heel. Another FTX could happen because crypto’s basic business model is rife with conflicts of interest, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said in an interview.
“There is a lot of interconnectedness, centralization and leverage in the system, and noncompliance,” Gensler said. “It’s a recipe for more investors to get harmed going forward.”
…
“It’s a recipe for more investors to get harmed going forward.”
How did it become the US government’s business to protect financial gambling addicts from the consequences of their addictive behaviors? If it is not a too-big-to-fail concern, why not let crypto die a natural death like that which previously befell tulips in Holland centuries ago and Beanie Baby owners a couple of decades ago. Are electronic tulips somehow special?
“Electronic Tulips”
nice !
FTX thief cashes out millions during Bankman-Fried trial
By Joe Tidy
Cyber correspondent
12 October 2023
sam bankman-fried entering court
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Image caption,
Sam Bankman-Fried is accused of fraud and money laundering
A thief who stole more than $470m (£383m) in cryptocurrency when FTX crashed is trying to cash it out while the exchange’s founder is on trial.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s high-profile court case began last week. The former crypto mogul denies fraud.
After lying dormant for nine months, experts say $20m of the stolen stash is being laundered into traditional money every day.
New analysis shows how the mystery thief is trying to hide their tracks.
FTX was once one of the biggest exchange platforms in the world allowing crypto investors to buy, trade and store digital currencies. It went bankrupt on 11 November 2022, with billions of dollars of customer funds missing.
Mr Bankman-Fried is pleading not guilty to misusing customer funds and money laundering while bankruptcy lawyers are trying to locate the missing billions.
On the day FTX collapsed, hundreds of millions of dollars of cryptocurrency controlled by the exchange were stolen by an unidentified thief that is believed to still have control of the funds.
No one knows how the thief – or thieves – was able to get digital keys to FTX crypto wallets, but it is thought it was either an insider or a hacker who was able to steal the information.
The criminal moved 9,500 Ethereum coins, then worth $15.5m, from a wallet belonging to FTX, to a new wallet.
Over the next few hours, hundreds of other cryptoassets were taken from the company’s wallets, in transactions eventually totalling $477m.
According to researchers from Elliptic, a cryptocurrency investigation firm, the thief lost more than $100m in the weeks following the hack as some was frozen or lost in processing fees as they frantically moved the funds around to evade capture.
But by December around $70m was successfully sent to a cryptocurrency mixer – a criminal service used to launder Bitcoin, making it difficult to trace.
…
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67090501
(This article is being posted here as a clarification of an issue brought about yesterday.)
Biden Says He’s Seen “Confirmed Pictures” Of Hamas Beheading Children, WH Issues Immediate Clarification
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-says-hes-seen-confirmed-pictures-hamas-beheading-children-wh-issues-immediate
U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday said he’d seen “confirmed pictures” that beheaded children were among the many victims of the Hamas terrorists who murdered hundreds of civilians in Israeli border towns this weekend. The White House later issued a statement to clarify his remarks.
The reports of Hamas beheading infants came as the world was already grappling with the extent of the crimes being described in Israel’s southern kibbutz communities, which bore the brunt of the wave of 1,500 terrorists who invaded Israel on Oct. 7.
During a roundtable with Jewish community leaders at the White House on Wednesday, President Biden emphasized the importance of Americans understanding the nature of the unfolding events.
“It matters that Americans see what’s happening. I’ve been doing this [for] a long time. I never really thought that I would see … have confirmed pictures of terrorists beheading children,” the president said.
White House national security aides have said that they have not had access to the images.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, who joined President Biden at the roundtable alongside other White House officials, told the Washington Examiner that while he hadn’t personally seen the beheading photos, he trusted the president’s assertion of their existence.
The White House later walked back President Biden’s comments, telling the Washington Post that neither President Biden nor U.S. officials have seen photos nor independently verified the reports coming out of Israel. Instead, the president had based his confirmation of the atrocities on allegations put forward by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesperson Tal Heinrich, The Post said.
(Link on the article to read the rest.)
I bet he saw “confirmed pictures” of Iraqi invaders dumping Kuwait babies out of hospital incubators back in 1990, too.
There’s no doubt awful atrocities have been committed by Hamas into Israel. Filmed by Hamas and put onto their own social media feeds. It was a pogrom, the first I’ve seen in my lifetime, things I’ve only read about committed by medieval villagers in Eastern Europe.
While I too am skeptical of most official reports of governments, I’m going to cut Isreal some slack on the veracity finer details of the awful atrocities. The fog of war is thick, as the saying goes.
About to post an article from memory lane…noting that although history doesn’t repeat itself, it often rhymes.
Greenspan warns that history ‘has not dealt kindly’ with unfounded financial optimism
News News | Aug 26, 2005
Associated Press
JACKSON, Wyo. – Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Friday cautioned Americans against thinking the value of their homes and other investments will only go higher, saying “history has not dealt kindly” with that kind of optimism. Greenspan also said that bloated trade and budget deficits threaten the long-term health of the U.S. economy. His warnings, made at a high-profile economic policy conference, came as the Fed chief and prominent economists pondered his 18 years at the central bank and the legacy he will leave. He is expected to step down in five months.
Rising house and stock prices have made many people feel more wealthy and have helped to support consumer spending, a key ingredient of the economy’s good health. Greenspan, however, said people shouldn’t count on that paper wealth, which can evaporate if economic conditions deteriorate rapidly. ”What they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear,” he said. “Any onset of increased investor caution” could cause home and stock prices to drop, he noted.
A long spell of low interest rates and low risks for investors has especially encouraged investment in homes. Greenspan worried about what would happen if that climate were to change.”History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low-risk premiums,” he said.
…
https://www.vaildaily.com/news/greenspan-warns-that-history-has-not-dealt-kindly-with-unfounded-financial-optimism/
The last time US stocks were this pricey relative to the debt market, the S&P 500 crashed 50%
Anil Varma
Oct 11, 2023, 6:17 AM PDT
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on May 17, 2023 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
– US stocks are near their most expensive levels in over two decades, relative to the debt market.
– The last time stocks were this pricey versus debt was during the dot-com boom – that was followed by a 50% crash in the S&P 500.
– “Equity risk premium is near its worst ever level going back to 1927,” and previous such instances have triggered major market corrections, research firm MacroEdge said.
…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-outlook-vs-bonds-sp500-declined-50-percent-2023-10
What is Equity Risk Premium?
Equity Risk Premium is the difference between returns on equity/individual stock and the risk-free rate of return. The risk-free rate of return can be benchmarked to longer-term government bonds, assuming zero default risk by the government. It is the excess return a stock pays to the holder over and above the risk-free rate for the risk the holder is taking. It is the compensation to the investor for taking a higher level of risk and investing in equity rather than risk-free securities.
…
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/equity-risk-premium/
Serious question for Biden supporters: how do you manage to overlook his blatant falsehoods?
https://twitter.com/MostlyPeacefull/status/1712225082704081067
Brett Arends’s ROI
Stock-market bear Jeremy Grantham is probably right about this, history says
Published: Oct. 11, 2023 at 12:48 p.m. ET
By Brett Arends
comments
Retirement savers, take note: Longtime doomsayer has an investment tip
…
Here’s some fresh news for all of us managing our own retirement accounts.
The Bear of Beacon Hill has spoken — and on one thing specifically, history says he is probably right.
We’re talking about legendary Boston fund manager Jeremy Grantham, the founder of white-shoe fund company GMO and a longtime predictor of doom. As reported by MarketWatch’s Barbara Kollmeyer, Grantham has given an interview to a Bloomberg podcast in which he made three big investment calls.
The first two are that the stock market could fall 50% from here and that investors should steer clear of U.S. stocks altogether because they are overvalued. Maybe he’s right, maybe he isn’t. Both are calls he’s made several times in the past. Subsequent events have not always conformed to the model.
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/longtime-stock-market-bear-jeremy-grantham-is-probably-right-about-this-history-says-f2eb868d
“Maybe he’s right, maybe he isn’t.”
A man’s opinion on this may depend on the source of his paycheck.
‘It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.’
– Upton Sinclair, Candidate for Governor of California
An Encino-based investor has declared bankruptcy on a Beverly Hills mansion
How do you declare bankruptcy “on” a property? I thought you had to either declare personal or corporate bankruptcy as a whole. Is the property owned by an LLC?
It’s called a Single Asset Real Estate debtor. The structure of how the asset is held is not as important as the determination that a single asset real estate business entity enters bankruptcy.
https://www.justia.com/bankruptcy/docs/basics/chapter-11/single-asset-real-estate-debtor/
Interesting, didn’t know about that. But then it seems this guy has filed bankruptcy on more than one “Single Asset”. Also it says at your link that the single property can’t be a residential real property with fewer than four residential units. I guess bankruptcy works in mysterious ways.
I’ve been told by people smarter than me that bankruptcy rules are like nothing else.
Barn door left open
All of the horses have fled
Hurry, shut the door!
Economy
Housing industry urges Powell to stop raising interest rates or risk an economic hard landing
Published Tue, Oct 10 2023 9:19 AM EDT
Updated Tue, Oct 10 2023 10:00 AM EDT
Jeff Cox
Key Points
– The National Association of Home Builders, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors wrote to the Fed “to convey profound concern” about the industry.
– The groups ask the Fed not to “contemplate further rate hikes” and not to actively sell its holdings of mortgage securities.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/10/housing-industry-urges-powell-and-fed-to-stop-raising-interest-rates.html
That was about as hilarious as the Twitter post of the gal begging her neighbors to quit lowering prices and ruining the comps. Yeah,….there’s no desperation in the air. 🙄
The Washington Post Guild is “infuriated” about a looming workforce reduction at the newspaper owned by Amazon mogul Jeff Bezos, one of the world’s richest people.
The Washington Post announced on Tuesday it will be offering “voluntary separation packages” to employees across all functions, eliminating 240 positions. The Post Guild, which has been advocating for Post employees since 1934, blasted the decision.
The Post “is on a pace to lose about $100 million in 2023,” according to The New York Times, which cited “two people with knowledge of the company’s finances” and two additional sources “briefed on the situation.”
The latest round of cuts comes after turmoil erupted at an employee town hall in December when publisher Fred Ryan announced there would be layoffs in the first quarter of 2023 without offering details as to who would be affected. The paper then cut 20 jobs, and many were relieved it wasn’t worse, but the leadership’s handling of the situation disappointed rank-and-file staffers.
“We are infuriated about this decision and concerned for our dedicated, brilliant colleagues… [The] announcement comes after at least 38 people were laid off over the last year. Hard-working Post employees are going to lose their jobs because of a litany of poor business decisions at the top of our company,” the Washington Post Guild wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, before taking a direct shot at Bezos.
Earlier this year, Fox News Digital spoke with five current and former Post employees who expressed concern about the direction of the paper. The Post “feels lost at sea,” one staffer said.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/washington-post-set-to-cut-240-jobs-infuriated-guild-blasts-litany-of-poor-business-decisions-by-paper/ar-AA1i3e5U
Credibility crisis: Washington Post ‘perhaps the worst’ among outlets that dismissed COVID lab leak theory
Article accused Sen. Tom Cotton of peddling a ‘conspiracy theory that has already been debunked’ in Feb. 2020
Published March 7, 2023
https://www.foxnews.com/media/credibility-crisis-washington-post-perhaps-worst-among-outlets-dismissed-covid-lab-leak-theory
Feel-good story of the day. These DNC shills are about to learn their true market value as millions of former sheeple become red-pilled and disconnect from the globalist scum media.
If you work for the Post, I wish nothing but pain and suffering on you. Zero f*s given.
This is an ‘industry’ that is perfect for AI. You tell the AI what your bias is and the style of spin you are seeking and it pukes out 1000 articles in 2.9 seconds. Soon it will only take one or two tiny hats to spam the entire interwebs with the spin of the day. I would advise them all to learn a trade but those jobs are all going to be taken by their pet illegals. A rude awakening awaits.
What you just described is, in essence, the globalist scum media.
They’re still paying their baby soft hands Real Journalists to have their name on the articles, no actual reporting being done.
See also: Reddit. Over half the content there is AI generated and upvoted, it’s a perfect globalist circle jerk platform.
“GreenSky will continue to originate loans that are mostly geared toward consumers making home renovations”
Good luck with that….
A friend’s mother of mine took a GreenSky loan at a high interest rate to pay the $6,000 for a new HVAC unit. It works like this: a broke-owner AC’s goes out, they call the local ‘big name’ HVAC specialist, they convince the broke-owner to buy a new unit entirely (rather than just ordering and replacing the part for several hundred dollars) and they say “But I can’t afford $6,000! (now more like $8K)” and they offer on the spot financing at high interest rates, and the money goes straight to the HVAC company. Who would have thought that lending $8k to a broke-owner would result in default?
they call the local ‘big name’ HVAC specialist
Always a huge mistake.
I once had an HVAC guy get a little podium out of his van and start pitching me an entire homes worth of things I could finance. I’m not even kidding, he got a podium out and started spreading out his various pitches on it! My jaw dropped.
That was the last time I ever called anyone for a home repair. I just go on youtube now and figure it out. I’ve learned far more about appliance repair and plumbing than I ever wanted to but I have saved a ton of money and avoided so many lies.
I just go on youtube now and figure it out.
In my first rental I ran into a clogged sink. The feeling of accomplishment when I finally fixed it was amazing. And nowadays, when a sink clogs, I am confident I can handle it. The wife appreciates it, too.
Sears home repair charged me nearly $800 to repair a broken oven. They charged $400 for a part that was $300 on Amazon but he had it on the truck. It was $400 for labor and took him 15 minutes. It was the igniter I was told by my wife. Supposedly an easy fix and supposedly cleaning the part works too. But in all honestly I can fix some things in my house no problem, but I ain’t fixing a gas appliance. Still I feel cheated at $800.
Sears home repair charged me nearly $800 to repair a broken oven.
I just looked online and you can get a brand new range for that price. Perhaps you have “built in” oven, as those for some reason cost more.
If the DNC is seriously thinking about running Dementia Joe in 2024, they’re going to need to pull off electoral fraud on a scale that dwarfs what they managed in 2020.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/10/yuge-latest-rasmussen-poll-shows-30-democrats-least/
(This is not housing related but still it is a fun post.)
Thai Hookers, Chinese Bribes: ‘Star Witness’ Ellison Unveils Chaos Behind FTX’s Fake Balance Sheets
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/thai-hookers-chinese-bribes-star-witness-ellison-unveils-chaos-behind-ftxs-fabricated
What would a second day of testimony in the FTX trial for Caroline Ellison have been without mentions of identity theft from Thai prostitutes and bribing Chinese officials?
Taking the stand on Wednesday, Sam Bankman-Fried’s former love interest turned star government witness against him, Ellison, spoke about the balance sheet that led to the downfall of Bankman-Fried’s companies.
Ellison stated that this balance sheet was a manipulated version of what Alameda had sent to its lenders, deliberately crafted to give the impression that the firm was in a more robust financial condition than was actually the case. She described the document as “deceptive.”
Previously it had been reported that, at Bankman-Fried’s direction, Ellison had “prepared seven different versions of Alameda’s balance sheet to potentially show to lenders,” according to The Messenger.
However, even the manipulated figures were concerning—laden with FTX’s FTT token and other tokens closely affiliated with Bankman-Fried—casting doubt on the financial viability of both Alameda and FTX. Among potential lenders was Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Ellison testified Wednesday.
She also lied to Genesis, one of FTX’s lenders, about Alameda’s balance sheet, @teddyschleifer reported on X Wednesday.
“Caroline Ellison testified that Sam Bankman-Fried ordered her to lie in mid 2022 to Genesis, one of FTX’s lenders, about Alameda’s balance sheet,” he wrote. “Caroline prepared a bunch of bullshit balance-sheets that they could send, and Sam chose ‘Alternative 7’ as the best lie of the bunch.”
Ellison reportedly said: “I didn’t want to be dishonest, but I didn’t want them to know the truth.”
Ellison testified on Wednesday: “I was in a constant state of dread. I knew we would have to take the money from our line of credit and that was money that could be called in at any time.”
And where was the money going? Ellison testified that she and Alameda executives had “paid a large bribe to Chinese officials” to obtain funds that were locked on a Chinese exchange.
After initial attempts to unfreeze funds by negotiating with the Chinese government through lawyers proved unsuccessful, Ellison stated that the FTX/Alameda team then endeavored—yet failed again—to access the funds by setting up fictitious exchange accounts using IDs that she believed belonged to “Thai prostitutes.”
Ultimately, Ellison was able to secure the funds after making a $100 million payment to a cryptocurrency account she believed was somehow connected to Chinese government officials. Ellison recounted an episode where an employee, whose father was a Chinese government official, voiced objections to the plan during a meeting. In response, Bankman-Fried became increasingly irritated and eventually told the employee to “shut the f*** up.”
In a confidential “State of Alameda” memo authored by Ellison in November 2021, shortly after the payment was executed, she included an entry labeled “-150m from the thing?” under a section outlining “notable/idiosyncratic” financial events. During her testimony, she explained that this entry was a reference to the payment made to Chinese authorities, stating, “I didn’t want to put in writing that we paid what I believed were bribes.”
“I was concerned that if everyone would find out, then everything would come crashing down,” she added.
“I felt a sense of relief that I didn’t have to lie anymore,” she said in court, according to Coindesk. “I felt indescribably bad about all the … people that lost their jobs … [and the] people that trusted us that we had betrayed.”
“Alameda took several billions of dollars from FTX customers and used it for investments. I sent balance sheets that made Alameda look less risky than it was,” Ellison testified earlier this week.
“Alameda took several billions of dollars from FTX customers and used it for investments.
Zero sympathy for these FTX bagholders. The fact that SBF was the #2 donor to the Democrat Party – a criminal enterprise masquerading as a political party – should’ve been a huge red flag. The fact that most FTX “investors” were probably on the same ideological page as SBF makes their massive losses that much more enjoyable. Stupid SHOULD hurt.
Come on man, SBF is a genius and a visionary. Please be respectful. In the jewish community he is known as an aspiring banker.
DOW 30 -0.31%
S&P 500 -0.12%
NASDAQ 100 +0.28%
The Treasury market this week saw its biggest single-day rally since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
Jennifer Sor Oct 11, 2023, 12:11 PM PDT
trader wall street looking up surprised
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 15 basis-points on Tuesday as more investors snapped up Treasury bonds. Reuters
– US Treasurys this week saw the biggest single-day rally since SVB collapsed.
– The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell 15 basis-points on Tuesday.
– Investors have started to snap up US bonds in a flight for safety amid conflict in the Middle East.
The US Treasury market saw its biggest single-day rally this week since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, a sign that extreme bond pessimism may be waning amid hopes that the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its rate hike campaign and amid a flight to safe haven investments as war breaks out between Israel and Hamas.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note slid 15 basis points to 4.647% on Tuesday. That’s the steepest one-day decline the 10-year Treasury yield has seen since the implosion of SVB in early March, when banking turmoil led investors to flock to US debt in search of safety.
The 10-year Treasury yield continued to slide early Wednesday, trading around 4.577%. Yields also dropped for the 20-year and 30-year Treasury bonds, which both inched lower by about nine basis basis points to trade around 4.93% and 4.732% respectively.
Bond prices, which move inversely to yields, are up. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF has inched up 1% higher from Friday’s close, trading around $91.29 on Wednesday.
…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-treasury-bond-crash-market-rally-yields-prices-svb-collapse-2023-10
Oh dear….
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-mortgage-rate-climbs-fresh-111544686.html
US mortgage rates always go up!
More whistling past the graveyard from REIC shills.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-hit-23-year-high-and-home-prices-show-few-signs-of-cooling-but-redfin-says-all-hope-is-not-lost-why-2b3189be?mod=mw_latestnews
A good friend of mine, recently married, second kid on the way, has been waiting years to move out of his condo and into his house. A year and a half ago another friend and I told him to wait, just wait, this can’t go on forever. Fast forward 15 months later, he’s moved into a $430k fixer-upper that probably would have been $100k cheaper two days before ‘rona shutdowns. I feel bad for the guy, his life progression isn’t going according to Jay Powell’s real estate boom and bust schedules, and it’s screwing over so many good, normal people who just want a place to live.
If he’s got a hefty, and I mean hefty, emergency reserve sitting around he might make it. The reserve will be gone, and his home will be completely underwater, but he might survive and hopefully learn from his idiotic mistake.
“I feel bad for the guy, his life progression isn’t going according to Jay Powell’s real estate boom and bust schedules, …”
Impatience has a high price tag these days.
I’ve been waiting since 2005 and I’m generally not a patient person. I have a huge leg up now since my mother passed away in May 2016 and I sold her house in September 2020. Unfortunately, things got even more stupid crazy after that.
I feel your pain.
California could sink into the Pacific Ocean after an earth quake and homes would still be priced too. You’d be better off leaving the state and finding more reasonably priced housing. Good weather isn’t everything. How can you ice fish or snow mobile if it’s 72 degrees every day? LOL
I’m not encouraging people to be impatient but most of history people just bought a house at a life event. These days your life events better align with the Feds monetary policy that even the smartest minds seem to not understand. Life’s not fair I get that but this boom and bust cycle is absurd.
You’d be better off leaving the state and finding more reasonably priced housing.
Jeez, why didn’t I think of that. 🙄
Europe Starts Utterly DESPERATE U-Turn
Michael Heaver
41 minutes ago
“Germany approves bringing coal-fired power plants back online this winter”
“Luxembourg’s coalition under Bettel collapses due to Green losses in tight elections”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zooa-icaMlE
2:33.
“Germany approves bringing coal-fired power plants back online this winter”
You do what works.
17-22% interest for subprime auto borrowers? That’ll have the cars flying off the lots.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/subprime-car-loan-rates-are-hitting-17-22-should-investors-be-worried-88146e72?mod=home-page
IMF urges governments to cut deficit spending to fight inflation – yeah, that might happen.
https://www.ft.com/content/acf2fc22-9a40-4b58-a8a6-24c198a80bfa
Perhaps China’s highly contagious cascading debt default will save the planet from inflation?
Starting to see ads for “state of the art AI coaches” who can help “with advice and support.” Creepy AF, but how many sheeple will engage the services of these “coaches”? Wonder what “advice” they would dispense to anyone thinking of signing on Mr. Banker’s dotted line for a shack.
Russell 2000 down 2.4% today, these small caps are the “real economy.”
(It’s time for some popcorn and a lawn chair.)
New York governor backs suspension of ‘right to shelter’ as migrant influx strains city
https://apnews.com/article/new-york-city-migrants-hochul-adams-immigration-551dc44d2980eaca0d2a350ccd68ecb1
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is supporting the city’s effort to suspend a unique legal agreement that requires it to provide emergency housing to homeless people, as a large influx of migrants overwhelms the city’s shelter system.
Hochul endorsed the New York City’s challenge to the requirement in a court filing this week, telling reporters Thursday that the mandate was never meant to apply to an international humanitarian crisis.
The city has for months sought to roll back the so-called right to shelter rule following the arrival of more than 120,000 migrants since last year. Many of the migrants have arrived without housing or jobs, forcing the city to erect emergency shelters and provide various government services, with an estimated cost of $12 billion over the next few years.
The shelter requirement has been in place for more than four decades in New York City, following a legal agreement that required the city to provide temporary housing for every homeless person. No other big city in America has such a requirement.
“I don’t know how the right to shelter — dedicated to help those people, which I believe in, help families — can or should be interpreted to be an open invitation to 8 billion people who live on this planet, that if you show up in the streets of New York, that the city of New York has an obligation to provide you with a hotel room or shelter,” said Hochul, a Democrat.
Last week, New York City Mayor Eric Adams asked a court to allow it to suspend the mandate when there is a state of emergency where the shelter population of single adults increases at a rapid rate. New York state on Wednesday filed a court document in support of the city’s request, calling it reasonable.
New York City has also tightened shelter rules by limiting adult migrants to just 30 days in city-run facilities amid overcrowding.
Dave Giffen, executive director of the Coalition for the Homeless, said the city’s request to suspend the mandate would have broad impact and could lead to large homeless encampments in New York.
“Make no mistake: if the mayor and governor get their way, they will be closing the door of the shelter system to thousands of people without homes, leaving them nowhere to sleep but the streets,” he said.
(Related to the above post is this article from October 1 …)
Governor Hochul suddenly realizes we have a border crisis
https://nypost.com/2023/10/01/governor-hochul-suddenly-realizes-we-have-a-border-crisis/
By golly, she gets it!
New York has been awash in budget-busting border crossers for many months now, and Gov. Hochul has been in near-total denial.
Suddenly, it seems, the light bulb has popped on: The border, she declared Sunday, “is too open right now.”
Governor, you don’t say!
“People coming from all over the world are . . . simply saying they need asylum and the majority of them seem to be ending up in the streets of New York, and that is a real problem,” Kathy-come-lately told “Face the Nation.”
And she also has a prescription: “We want [Congress to place] a limit on who can come across the border.”
From her lips to Chuck Schumer’s ears. Also, Hakeem Jeffries’ – and especially Joe Biden’s.
And it would be very useful for Mayor Adams to hop aboard Hochul’s shiny new busted-border bandwagon, too.
Both he and the governor have been dancing around the core issue – America’s non-existent southern border, and Washington’s refusal to restore it – for many months now.
And for too long, Hochul seemed content to let Adams deal with the consequences on his own.
What happens to New York City stays in New York City, right? Except maybe now that the border-crosser tsunami threatens to crash down north of Westchester, Hochul has decided to pay attention.
Gov. Hochul’s epiphany on the road to ruin – NYC can’t house the world
Or maybe she has polls showing upstate and suburban voters paying very close attention themselves.
Whatever.
So now Hochul and Adams are demanding big federal bucks to help pay the bills – and Schumer, Jeffries and Biden have even conspired to toss occasional couch change their way.
But too little, too late – which always is going to be the case so long as Washington’s patience with illegal border-crossers exceeds New York’s ability to cough up sufficient cash to cover the costs.
New York City, it’s worth repeating again and again and again, has largely itself to blame for its dilemma. Gotham, as a matter of long-standing (and quite foolish) policy, will put a roof over anybody who wanders into the five boroughs.
Thus the city is a migrant magnet. And it will remain so as long as its “right-to-shelter” policy is in effect. And, until it’s gone, New York’s poverty pleadings will be taken seriously by no one.
But a serious move to deep-six free room-and-board for all comers could cause Washington to take Hochul’s busted-border epiphany as an election-year-eve red flag.
That is, if border-security cowardice is causing cobalt-blue New York to grow weary of its near-numberless migrants, what must the rest of the country be feeling?
Make that dreading.
An estimated 260,000 economic migrants hopped the border last month alone. Where – no, how? – does it end?
However, that’s for the (near) future. Right now, here’s an open-arms “welcome aboard” to Kathy Hochul, and never mind what caused her awakening.
But now comes the heavy lifting, madame governor. Now you need to push your clamp-down-the-border prescription to folks who can do something about it.
Right?
(WARNING: This post is not housing related.)
Israel-Hamas “war” – another excuse to shut down free speech
https://off-guardian.org/2023/10/11/israel-hamas-war-another-excuse-to-shut-down-free-speech/
As a brand new war-narrative unfolds, there’s already efforts underway to parlay the conflict into tighter controls on free speech and freedom of expression, both in person and on the internet.
The headlines have been filled with nothing but Israel and Hamas since the “surprise attack” on Saturday, with the predictable back and forth of historical grievances and accusations of racism, punctuated by unsubstantiated claims of atrocities.
“Atrocity Propaganda” is nothing new. It is the opening salvo of every war as state combatants try to win the public to their side.
For example, the totally unsubstantiated claim that Hamas “threw forty Jewish babies out of their cribs and beheaded them”, which was doing the rounds yesterday. As far as atrocity propaganda goes the claim is startling in its unoriginality (Nayirah anyone?)
There’s a lot of that right now, lurid claims of graphic and pointless violence directed against the innocent, most of which survives just long enough to cause some outrage before being “debunked” or walked-back.
Part of that is the general “fog of war”, heightened by the advent of social media. When a lot of people can talk a lot more is said (good and bad).
But there’s another interpretation: That fake war stories are being intentionally seeded onto social media and then “debunked” to discredit platforms and appear to justify digital censorship.
Within the past twenty-four hours Reuters, NBC, YahooNews, The Guardian and the AP have run stories criticising the proliferation of “fake war news” on social media. Al Jazeera joined in too.
Almost all of those accusations have been directed solely at Twitter/X – increasingly the media’s anti-free speech strawman.
Governments have not been quiet on the issue either, with the European Union reportedly “warning” Elon Musk there would be “penalties” for the spread of war-related “misinformation” on his platform.
It’s not just “misinformation” either, but also “hate”. In an unusually subtle headline, NBCNews warns of the “increasingly fraught nature of online speech”. USA Today is more on the nose, claiming “online hate” is “surging”.
Oh, and there are the “unregulated” sites to worry about, where terrorists allegedly upload violent videos, at least so the New York Times says:
Hamas Seeds Violent Videos on Sites With Little Moderation”
It’s not hard to see where this leads.
And while “misinformation” is used to justify social media censorship, “safety” is used to justify shutting down freedom of assembly.
In the UK and US pro-Palestinian rallies were met with calls for the police to get involved, citing laws that outlaw the public support of “listed terrorist organizations”.
UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman has told the police that waving a Palestinian flag could be considered a crime. Metropolitan police are engaging in “reassurance patrols”.
In France the police are already more directly involved, shutting down a pro-Palestine demonstration.
…and people applauded.
Many of them the same voices who railed against tyranny in defending the Canadian truckers or anti-lockdown protests. It is disheartening to see.
In short, the “war” is four days old and is already being used to suppress dissent on the streets and argue against free-speech on the internet.
However the war narrative evolves over there, over here it’s just more of the same.
Black Sabbath — War Pigs:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bc5Nk1DXyEY&pp=ygUWYmxhY2sgc2FiYmF0aCB3YXIgcGlncw%3D%3D
Home Prices Still Out Of Reach For Many In Vaughan, Richmond Hill & Markham Real Estate – Oct 4
Team Sessa Real Estate
6 minutes ago
Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices for the week of Sept 28 – Oct 4, 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTU8y21uk3I
15:00 minutes.
‘We’re seeing those homes that were $1,000, $1,500 a night, and they have every single luxury item that you could have imagined — we’re seeing them still on the market now for $275-$300 a night’
Gosh Kelly I hope no one overpaid based on the previous revenue.
‘We are going to start seeing a number of folks who maybe bought in 2020 putting homes back on the market because they weren’t expecting there to be so much work involved’
via GIPHY
First they’ll try to rent with unrealistic rent expectations.
‘Before the pandemic, $600 per thousand board feet was expensive for lumber. Prices jumped up to well over $1,200 per thousand board feet last year, which Idaho Pacific Lumber Company’s Vice President of Purchasing and Sales Scott Sunday says was driven by 2021’s ‘shock to the system.’ ‘It was never going to stay in those ranges, although you had some producers that were thinking it would trade that way forever, but it never does,’ he said. ‘It always works its way up and down. It had to adjust’
Labor shortage debunked today also.
‘Our sales are pretty vibrant. Not flying off the shelves, but I don’t think that was a healthy market for a buyer back when the market was so crazy because we would sell our inventory out before we finished’
I’m sure you mentioned that to the buyers at the time Gene.
Nor do they mention their wailing letter to The Fed.
‘It’s now among dozens of Bay Area property owners who have lost their buildings to foreclosure, defaulted on mortgages or sold at a loss’
How the mighty have fallen.
‘Financing a project that touted its proximity to downtowns was no longer appealing for lenders or equity partners. ‘There’s no market for it now’
I’ll have you know Pat, this is THE holy grail of investing yer talking about.
‘As of September in Austin, there were: 63,882 units under preconstruction, 41,071 units under construction, 10,124 units under lease-up, or being filled, 17,364 units under construction/lease-up.’ Still, demand hasn’t quite kept up with supply this year, according to data from ALN. As of September, there were almost 20,000 more multifamily units delivered than absorbed, or leased. ‘We’re in this period right now of kind of prolonged stubbornly low apartment demand’
When I visited Austin in 1986, they had around a 40% vacancy in apartments and a new mall was 90% vacant. This isn’t the first rodeo of false Austin anti-gravity.
Can’t wait for stories like this out of California. I know from the news and from our personal community grapevine that plenty of well-to-do families have pulled the plug on the California living experiment over the past several years. I’m curious when this will start showing up in news stories about the housing market?
Opinion
As people flee to other states, California must rediscover freedom
A mover carries a chair into a moving van parked at a home for sale in El Dorado Hills, Calif. Tuesday, March 11, 2008. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)
By Eric Boehm |
PUBLISHED: September 25, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. | UPDATED: September 25, 2023 at 7:01 a.m.
For decades, California has been a desirable destination for Americans lured by the promise of riches, stardom, or at least a good place to surf. That dream is over for an estimated 343,000 Californians who fled the state between July 2021 and July 2022, according to data from the Census Bureau. That marks the third consecutive year that California has seen a net decline in population.
Those heading out of state tend to be wealthier residents, and their exit threatens to blow a hole in the state’s finances. California lost about $343 million in tax revenue during 2021 due to out-migration, according to a study from the online real estate firm MyEListing.com. The company says, “California’s high personal income tax rates seem discouraging for many high-wealth individuals.”
While that study does not cover the same period as the most recent IRS data, both point to a worrying trend. So does a new projection from California’s Finance Department, which expects the state’s population to stagnate at 39 million for the next few decades. Less than a decade ago, the same agency expected the state’s population to grow to 53 million by 2050.
…
https://www.ocregister.com/2023/09/25/as-people-flee-to-other-states-california-must-rediscover-freedom/
‘They don’t feel any urgency to buy…It either has to be really special or a deal’
That’s the spirit Andre, keep up the good work.
FOGS has replaced FOMO. Folks will give up the American dream to protect their anus. Beware the schlong!
‘For one thing, homes have been sitting on the market for way longer than they used to back in the days where prospective buyers needed to have a deposit in hand and their bidding war elbows out upon first viewing a place’
Those were my winnahs?
If they would just reduce their asking prices to slightly below market value, they could have a bid war tomorrow.
One of the most absurd fake news broadcasts of all 😂
https://www.bitchute.com/video/2flbkVXfMHVq/
3:37.
Dave Brubeck – Golden Brown
Laurence Mason
May 11, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Qs1J612nZs
2:19.
I think I was 45 or 46 when I found this blog and tomorrow is my birthday.
Has this blog been around that long?
https://youtu.be/HCTunqv1Xt4?si=HnMze3yoWppFkvc9
Well, Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday Jeff!
Thaks guys.
64 doesn’t feel any older than 63 but it feels a shi#load older than 45 or46. 🙂
That would be… Thanks guys.
Who knows, maybe I will live long enough to proof read what I say before I hit the add comment button.
My 78th birthday on November 4th.
60 year High School Reunion this month.
Oh, to be 64 again! (Enjoy it).
(Say it ain’t so!. An 8 minute video.)
Watch “What happened to Rudy Ruettiger? (uncovering the LIES in Rudy)” on YouTube
https://youtu.be/9hCWpv8z5K4?si=0kXWS_huM6Jxpr33
Does China’s successful effort to rein in inflation offer hope for other countries’ central bankers who are trying to do the same?
Financial Times
Chinese economy
China remains on brink of deflation as consumer confidence lags
Producer prices stick in negative territory while trade weakness improves
A shopper uses a digital payment service to purchase food at a stall in Beijing
Beijing has released a steady stream of piecemeal support for the world’s second-largest economy but failed to generate strong consumer spending
Joe Leahy in Beijing and William Langley in Hong Kong an hour ago
China’s consumer prices teetered on the edge of deflation last month as Beijing struggled to rekindle confidence among consumers and investors and stabilise the country’s crisis-hit property market.
The consumer price index was unchanged year on year in September, after edging into positive growth in August. The producer price index, which measures the price of goods sold by manufacturers, declined 2.5 per cent year on year in September, official figures showed on Friday.
Both inflation metrics were marginally weaker than forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters. In August, the CPI rose 0.1 per cent, up from negative territory the month before, while the PPI contracted 3 per cent.
…
Hong Kong stocks tumble 2%, leading losses in Asia-Pacific after China data
Lee Ying Shan
This is CNBC’s live blog covering Asia-Pacific markets.
CHONGQING, CHINA – AUGUST 24: Aerial view of Chongqing’s skyline at night as lights are partially turned off to conserve energy amid a heatwave on August 24, 2022 in Chongqing, China.
(Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)
August was marked by extremely hot temperatures in parts of China, prompting temporary power rationing in some regions. Pictured here on Aug. 24, 2022, is the central city of Chongqing’s skyline with the lights partially turned off to conserve energy during the heatwave.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Hong Kong stocks fall more than 2%, leading losses in the wider Asia-Pacific markets fell as investors digest China’s inflation and trade data for September.
China’s consumer price index for September came in flat, lower than a 0.2% climb which analysts polled by Reuters expected. China also reported a 2.5% decline for its producer price index, compared to Reuters’ estimates of a 2.4% drop.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index traded 2.11% lower. China’s benchmark CSI 300 is down 1.11%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225
slipped 0.44% and South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.9%.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/13/asia-stock-market-today-live-updates-on-us-cpi-china-inflation.html
The Financial Times
30 minutes ago
European stocks follow Asian markets lower
Geore Steer in London
European stocks followed Asian markets lower early on Friday, as investors digested stronger than expected US inflation numbers and looked ahead to third-quarter earnings from three of the biggest US banks.
The region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.1 per cent, as did France’s Cac 40. London’s FTSE 100 made minor gains and Germany’s Dax fell 0.2 per cent.
Contracts tracking Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 and those tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were steady ahead of the New York open. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup post their latest earnings later today.
…
PERSONAL FINANCE
Mortgage rates near 8%, an ‘inventory crisis’: Homebuyers face a ‘tricky’ market, expert says
PUBLISHED THU, OCT 12 2023 2:30 PM EDT
UPDATED THU, OCT 12 2023 2:38 PM EDT
Annie Nova
KEY POINTS
– The housing market is dealing with several “tricky” dynamics, said Tracy Kasper, president of the National Association of Realtors.
– Those dynamics include an “inventory crisis” and the highest mortgage rates in decades.
..
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/12/mortgage-rates-near-8percent-low-inventory-homebuyers-face-a-tricky-market.html
Notice how the BIG LIE is quietly brushed off.
The Hill — More than 7 million people have received updated COVID vaccine (10/12/2023):
“More than 7 million Americans have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine since it was approved one month ago, according to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) signed off on the Pfizer and Moderna shots Sept. 11, and distribution was allowed to begin after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended them Sept. 12.
The updated shots were designed to target the XBB.1.5 variant, which was dominant when vaccine makers started formulating and testing a new version.
Like all the other COVID-19 vaccines, the updated version is not designed to prevent infection completely but is meant to reduce the severity of symptoms and curb the risk of “long COVID.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4252651-more-than-7-million-received-updated-covid-vaccine-hhs/
^ This last quoted paragraph, like ALL of the phony vaccines, NOT designed to prevent infection?
Remember spring of 2021? Remember 100% safe and effective?
Remember autumn 2021, when you were threatened to get FIRED FROM YOUR JOB for not getting injected with the Jim Jones mystery juice?
Not designed to prevent infection, but you’ll get fired anyway.
Never forgive, never forget.
Did sticky inflation hammer your long-term bond HODLings?
DOW FUTURES +0.07%
S&P 500 FUTURES -0.09%
NASDAQ 100 FUTURES -0.35%
Treasury yields spike as markets worry about the impact of sticky inflation on Fed policy
Phil Rosen
Oct 12, 2023, 11:49 AM PDT
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
– The 10-year Treasury yield spiked about 12 basis points Thursday.
– The jump followed September CPI, which showed inflation is still elevated.
– Bond yields edged back up toward 16-year highs reached a week ago.
…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-yields-investors-markets-stocks-fed-policy-inflation-bonds-rally-2023-10
PIMCO’s Bill Gross: Bond market is a captive of the treasury supply, the Fed, retail bond vigilantes
Hosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Tue, Oct 3 2023 7:56 PM EDT
…
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/10/03/pimcos-bill-gross-bond-market-is-a-captive-of-the-treasury-supply-the-fed-retail-bond-vigilantes.html
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/william-h-gross.asp#:~:text=In%202014%2C%20Bill%20Gross%20resigned,period%20of%20internal%20management%20struggles.
Inflation and the housing market: Decoding the latest number…
Is the housing market going to crash? What the experts are saying
Jeff Ostrowski – Bankrate.com (TNS) Oct 12, 2023 Updated 16 hrs ago
Data shows that median sale prices of existing homes are near record highs. No one expects price drops on the scale of the declines experienced during the Great Recession.
Dreamstime/TNS
Much to the chagrin of would-be homebuyers, property prices just keep rising. It seems nothing — not even the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years — can stop the continued climb of home prices.
Prices increased once again in July, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, with 19 out of 20 markets measured showing month-over-month gains. In another reflection of ongoing increases, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that median home prices as of August were up about 4% year-over-year, with July and August reflecting the highest median prices it has ever recorded for those months.
…
https://www.gmtoday.com/business/is-the-housing-market-going-to-crash-what-the-experts-are-saying/article_78503c50-6938-11ee-ab10-cf1c2a7c44b7.html
“No one expects price drops on the scale of the declines experienced during the Great Recession.”
No matter what the MSM-paid shills, er, I mean experts, say, first principles of economics suggest home prices are going to CR8R if mortgage rates persist near current levels.