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What’s Left After The Good Times End

A report from Money Wise. “Home prices in 18 of the largest 50 cities in the U.S. fell between the four-week period ending Jan. 15 compared to the same period time a year before, says Redfin. In San Francisco, prices fell 10.1% year-over-year. Other cities experiencing price drops are San Jose, Austin, Detroit and Phoenix. According to the NAR, we may see expensive markets fall further, which if that happens sooner than later, would make it an excellent time to buy into an expensive market. ‘Markets in roughly half of the country are likely to offer potential buyers discounted prices compared to last year,’ noted NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Chen Zhao, economics research lead at Redfin, estimated that total existing-home sales in 2023 would amount to around 4.1 million, which would mark the smallest number of sales since about 2008. Zhao said sales are unlikely to pick up much next year, with mortgage rates likely to remain at elevated levels. ‘We’re in for a fairly prolonged freeze,’ she said. Almost 18% of homes listed in September had price reductions, the highest level since November 2022, according to”

“‘The market has definitely started slowing,’ said Steven Fischer, a real-estate agent in Savannah, Ga. ‘Everyone’s doing open houses, everyone’s doing price reductions, and now sellers are offering a lot of incentives to get buyers to buy their house.’ Desiree Edgington first listed her mother’s three-bedroom ranch-style house in Hesston, Kan., for $650,000 in October 2022, a few months after her mother’s death. The house is now under contract for $400,000, with Edgington agreeing to pay a $7,000 credit to the buyers. ‘We really expected it to sell right away, and then the rates went up and the rates went up again,’ Edgington said. ‘We had to keep dropping our price.'”

The News Press. “Twelve months after Ian left its mark on Southwest Florida, the housing market has certainly shifted. Over a recent seven-day period in late September, we saw over 900 active listings. During that same period, about 630 homes were sold. In my experience, that’s the first time in quite a while where the number of listings has surpassed the number of homes sold. In fact, the number of days that a listing remains on the market is increasing across Collier, Lee and Charlotte counties. This isn’t just a Southwest Florida phenomenon. Our firm, Call It Closed International Realty, works with agents, brokers, buyers and sellers across the country. From Denver and Los Angeles to Charlotte and Louisville, these patterns are playing out similarly. In the last year, we’ve seen the highest level of inventory that we’ve seen in the last four years.”

The Washington Post. “When Austin’s tallest building officially opens later this year, all that office space will be empty. Meta has ditched its move-in plans and is now trying to sublease 589,000 square feet of offices, 1,626 parking spots, 17 private balconies and a half-acre of green space. So far: no takers. The skyscraper known as ‘Sixth and Guadalupe’ is the most glaring example in the city that made a huge bet on the post-pandemic commercial real estate economy. While other cities worry about a glut of office space as workers resist returning to the familiar 9-to-5 grind, Austin’s challenges are Texas-sized.”

“Here, about 6 million square feet of new office space will hit the market in the next few years — equivalent to 105 football fields. Between spaces completed since 2020 and what’s still in the pipeline, the office market will grow nearly 25 percent — the fastest rate on the continent. And the vast majority of projects are blazing ahead without companies lined up to move in. Roughly 87 percent of new office space is expected to open vacant, according to data from the commercial real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield.”

“Others fear the boom could quickly devolve into a bust, telling a cautionary tale about what happens when development outruns a local economy — and what’s left after the good times end. ‘It’s just so striking that even after the economy has cooled off … all I see are cranes everywhere around me,’ said Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives and a longtime Austin resident. ‘There are ‘for lease’ signs on these brand-new, beautiful buildings. Who is going to go there? I don’t know.'”

“At the same time, though, all of the new space is driving down the value of decades-old buildings that are gradually hollowing out. On one downtown street corner, a drab 40-year-old building bears a large ‘For Lease’ banner. Right next door, construction crews were working on a 58-story luxury skyscraper. Jeff Graves, research director at Cushman & Wakefield, lived in Las Vegas during the 2007-2008 housing market crash and wonders if a similar bubble could come for Austin commercial real estate. So far, landlords would prefer to throw in perks, such as six months of free rent on a decade-long lease, before caving to a discount. That approach may only work for so long. And things could come to a head if lenders get antsy that they’re taking too much of a loss. ‘No one wants to be the first to drop rates,’ Graves said. ‘They’re in for a lot of money.'”

The New Yorker on California. “In 2021, San Francisco had the highest per-capita income level of any major city in America—something that would have been almost inconceivable a couple of generations earlier. In 1995, the city’s average home value was about double the national mean; a quarter century later, it was five times as much. In February, mayor London Breed released what she called a ‘Roadmap to San Francisco’s Future,’ a set of policy tweaks that included simplifications to the small-business tax code. ‘We are trying to make things a lot easier, more efficient,’ she explained in her office. I asked whether leaning heavily on tech to build up downtown had been a mistake. ‘We realize just how completely relying on office space, and mostly one industry, is not the right decision for any thriving downtown,’ she conceded.”

“Before the pandemic, thirty-eight per cent of San Francisco’s office space was occupied by the technology industry. ‘We no longer manufacture things in San Francisco to speak of,’ Rodney Fong, the president of the city’s Chamber of Commerce, told me. ‘We’re the first to see our downtown as impacted as it is, because when we said ‘Work from home,’ everyone just grabbed a laptop, and boom!’ That reliance on tech made downtown especially vulnerable.”

“‘The pandemic and fentanyl collided,’ Lydia Bransten, the executive director of the Gubbio Project, which offers coffee, health services, and a safe place to nap to a hundred homeless people a day, told me. ‘People in the throes of addiction were hanging out with other people in the throes of addiction without the rest of the community. Then the city reopened, and housed people coming out of their homes were confronted with this scene of absolute devastation. And they’re flabbergasted: ‘How could this happen? We’ve spent all this money!’ From 2021 to 2022, San Francisco spent seventy-six million dollars on drug-treatment programs; its homelessness budget was nearly seven hundred million dollars. But after living through their own pandemic challenges, people had what Bransten calls ‘compassion fatigue.’ ‘It was a feeling of ‘Look at these people. Clearly nothing’s working,’ she told me.”

Insauga in Canada. “Home prices remained high across the GTA last month, but that didn’t stop some communities from shifting into a buyer’s market and seeing properties sell for well below asking price. A recent breakdown of real estate numbers across Southern Ontario found that while sales were generally down in September. Some municipalities like Brampton (average list price $1,183,632) and Ajax (average list price $1,137,451) saw a gap of 11.98 per cent and 12.68 per cent respectively between the average sale and list prices. But others like Caledon (average list price $2,356,199) and Halton Hills average list price ($1,899,398) had the largest differentials 42.12 per cent and 42.94 per cent.”

“In Halton Hills, that difference translates to a more than $815,600 gap between the average price sellers are listing and what homebuyers are actually paying, while Mississauga had an average asking price of $1,355,825 in September and an average sale price of $1,021,324 for a difference of 24.67 per cent of $334,501. All of the more than 30 municipalities examined in the report had an overall average sale price below the average list price, but Orangeville had the smallest difference between asking price ($908,292) and sale price ($756,906) at 10.9 per cent for a difference of more than $151,300. Zoocasa says that based on the September numbers, Oshawa and Orangeville are the ‘most affordable’ cities on the list, having an average price of $756,906, 13.60% lower than the average list price of $876,004.”

“The report says that the ratio of sales to new listings (SNLR) across Southern Ontario and the GTA reflects sellers struggling as over a dozen regions including Brampton, Milton, Ajax have been classified as being in a buyer’s markets while another 16 ‘are in a balanced state.’ ‘While prices haven’t exactly declined in the GTA, sellers are having a tougher time due to the decline in interest driven by a lack of affordability,’ the report reads. ‘Many homes are selling for less than their listing price, while others are sitting on the market for long periods of time as those selling are less willing to budge.'”

Bisnow London. “The pressure on lenders and borrowers to deal with problem loans is ratcheting up, and 2024 will see a significant uptick in distressed sales. That was the verdict of a panel of lenders speaking at Bisnow’s Real Estate Outlook event in London, held at the Royal Institution of Great Britain. Consensual sales will come first as loans that need to be refinanced can’t be, due to higher interest rates, panellists said. Then things will start to get more acrimonious. Loans coming to maturity now were likely underwritten during the period from 2017 to 2021 when interest rates were at historic lows. In many cases, there is not enough income from properties to refinance debt at base rates of 5% when loans were originally underwritten at base rates of 1%. ‘Lenders are saying to borrowers, ‘Put it on the market or we will enforce,’ Birchwood Real Estate Capital CEO Lorna Brown said. ‘We’re already starting to see the number of exits ticking up.'”

From Bloomberg. “Germany’s housing sector slumped deeper into crisis as project cancellations hit a record, prompting construction companies to become more pessimistic about the future than ever before. In September, 21.4% of residential builders said they were affected by construction projects being called off, according to a survey by the Munich-based Ifo Institute. That was the highest level since records began in 1991 and worse than August’s 20.7%. ‘The apartments that aren’t being started today will be missing from the rental market in two years’ time,’ Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said in the report. ‘Many projects are no longer economically viable.'”

“As conditions deteriorate, the business climate for residential construction also plunged in September to its lowest level since the survey began in 1991, Ifo said. Almost half of companies complained about a lack of orders. ‘That’s a threefold increase over the past 12 months, which is a dramatic development,’ Wohlrabe said. ‘The conditions for new construction are difficult, to say the least.'”

This Post Has 89 Comments
  1. ‘The house is now under contract for $400,000, with Edgington agreeing to pay a $7,000 credit to the buyers. ‘We really expected it to sell right away, and then the rates went up and the rates went up again,’ Edgington said. ‘We had to keep dropping our price’

    Just like that eh Desiree? Coward.

    1. In the middle of Kansas?!! You telling me that a 3 bed house was once going for 650K in Hesston Kansas? 400K is insane!

        1. I seriously used to joke with my wife that if things got really bad we could always move to Kansas. It was pure hyperbole. I guess not! 😂

  2. ‘Here, about 6 million square feet of new office space will hit the market in the next few years — equivalent to 105 football fields. Between spaces completed since 2020 and what’s still in the pipeline, the office market will grow nearly 25 percent — the fastest rate on the continent. And the vast majority of projects are blazing ahead without companies lined up to move in. Roughly 87 percent of new office space is expected to open vacant’

    But you better cook yer food in solar ovens! Just when you think the clusterfook known as Austin can’t get any worse. Truth is, Austin has a long reputation for boom and bust.

  3. ‘The pandemic and fentanyl collided,’ Lydia Bransten, the executive director of the Gubbio Project, which offers coffee, health services, and a safe place to nap to a hundred homeless people a day, told me. ‘People in the throes of addiction were hanging out with other people in the throes of addiction without the rest of the community. Then the city reopened, and housed people coming out of their homes were confronted with this scene of absolute devastation. And they’re flabbergasted: ‘How could this happen? We’ve spent all this money!’

    The globalist scum used minor respiratory illness to spring all kinds of commie BS on everybody. That’s right, in the midst of a so called global health matter, they went full dictator and tried to destroy the global economy. Hanging is too good for them.

    1. New Zealand Labour shed votes to the right but also the left – the price of a progressive policy bonfire

      It was an assessment with a distinctly New Zealand flavour. “At the end of the day, there’s one unavoidable reality,” said Chris Hipkins, the defeated Labour prime minister, speaking to reporters after he conceded the country’s election on Saturday. “We lost because not enough people voted for us.”

      But that was only part of it. Hipkins’ ruling, centre-left Labour party had crashed from the historic highs of its 2020 election result, in which it won 50% of the vote, to a dismal 27% on Saturday, nearly halving its seats in parliament.

      “If you look around the globe, no governments that have governed through the Covid-19 period have fared particularly well when the next polls have rolled around,” the Labour leader told reporters.

    2. “in the midst of a so called global health matter, they went full dictator and tried to destroy the global economy. Hanging is too good for them.”

      The Day Of The Rope is coming ☠️

      1. Americans recently learned that former White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci and his wife have amassed enormous personal wealth during the COVID-19 pandemic. The couple’s combined net worth now exceeds $11 million.

        At the same time, Fauci notoriously called for economic lockdowns and overly restrictive COVID-related policies that financially ruined many American families and small businesses.

        auci’s skyrocketing net worth is causing Americans to take a closer look at his long history of lies, hypocrisy, and flip-flops. The disgraced medical expert is officially the subject of a criminal referral sent by Congressman Rand Paul to the U.S. Department of Justice. Senator Paul says there has never been “a clearer case of perjury in the history of government testimony” after Fauci allegedly lied under oath.

        Here’s a look at Fauci’s 3 biggest lies to America:

        Number One: At a Senate hearing in May, Dr. Fauci said, “The NIH has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.’ That was under oath, under testimony. On October 20th, the NIH principal deputy director in writing directly contradicted it.”

        Often referred to as Fauci’s “biggest lie,” Americans were told that our taxpayer dollars were not being sent to China to fund gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. During an important moment for the country, critics say Fauci was more concerned about protecting himself than telling the truth to Americans.

        In doing so, Fauci sunk to a level of dishonor and disgrace that few people saw coming. As the nation’s top medical advisor, Fauci had a duty to be truthful and forthcoming to Americans. On the other hand, as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), it would look very bad if his agency was part of the problem. Fauci apparently found the latter to be unlivable and he opted instead to lie to America and save himself. Fauci continues to claim that he “never lied before Congress.”

        Senator Paul said, “I don’t think there’s ever been a clearer case of perjury in the history of government testimony, and I don’t say that lightly. He said adamantly that the government never funded this gain-of-function research. We now have the Government Accountability Office, the GAO, has admitted that the funding came from the NIH,” he continued. “We have the acting director [Lawrence] Tabak, of the NIH, admitting it in writing that it came from the NIH. But now we have, really, the smoking gun, and that is Fauci in private saying the opposite of what he was saying in public when he was publicly telling me that absolutely, we do not fund gain-of-function research in China,” Paul added.

        “He says privately we are suspicious that the virus has been manipulated and we are suspicious because we know they are doing gain-of-function research,” the senator said. “He then goes on to describe the research, and it’s exactly the research that the NIH funded. So he’s caught dead to rights here, but we have an incredibly partisan Attorney General [Merrick] Garland, who is refusing to act, so I’ve taken the extraordinary step of actually going to the local U.S. attorney in D.C. to see if he will act.”

        “The problem is there are partisans littered throughout the legal system, and people are seeing this. You don’t get prosecuted if you’re a Democrat under this administration, no matter what you do,” Paul concluded.

        Number Two: In February 2023, at 82 years old, Fauci said, “We must all keep an open mind to all possibilities [about the origins of the coronavirus]. We may never know [the source of the outbreak]. I don’t see any data for a lab leak.” To this day, Fauci lies that there is no data to show the Wuhan lab in China is responsible for the origins of COVID-19. Again, Fauci has developed a habit of lying to protect himself.

        Multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy as well as the FBI, have officially declared that they have confidence that the COVID-19 pandemic was caused by a lab leak in Wuhan, China. FBI Director Christopher Wray did not mince words on the topic. “The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan,” Wray said.

        FBI Director Wray pointed the finger at the Chinese Communists for interfering with any investigation into the lab. “Here you are talking about a potential leak from a Chinese government-controlled lab,” the FBI director said. “I will just make the observation that the Chinese government, it seems to me, has been doing its best to try to thwart, and obfuscate the work here, the work that we’re doing, the work that our U.S. government and close foreign partners are doing. And that’s unfortunate for everybody.”

        Chinese virologist Dr. Li-Meng Yan agreed that it’s not possible for the leak to have occurred accidentally. “Of course, it was not an accident. I can tell you based on the protocol and also the other surveillance system it will be impossible for the lab leak accidentally happen in such a lab and also cause the Wuhan outbreak and also the pandemic.”

        Fauci cannot admit to himself and to Americans that COVID-19 originated in a lab that his agency funded with U.S. tax dollars. This conclusion is too much to bear.

        However, Fauci likely never believed that his private email correspondence would fall into the hands of Americans. “They only took about 10,000 emails from me, of course I remember,” Fauci complained. “I remember all 10,000 of them. Give me a break,” he said sarcastically about not remembering what he wrote over email.

        In 2020, Fauci wrote multiple emails confirming that he was aware of data pointing to the possibility of a lab leak as the origins of COVID-19. Fauci suggested to NIH director Francis Collins and others that he needs top medical advisors to publicly downplay this lab leak theory. (COLLAPSING: Bud Light Parent Company Sells Off 8 Craft Brands)

        In February 2020, Fauci wrote an email that he is aware of the “sequences of several isolates of the nCoV, there were mutations in the virus that would be most unusual to have evolved naturally in the bats and that there was a suspicion that this mutation was intentionally inserted. The suspicion was heightened by the fact that scientists in Wuhan University are known to have been working on gain-of-function experiments to determine the molecular mechanisms associated with bat viruses adapting to human infection, and the outbreak originated in Wuhan.”

        Ultimately, not only was Fauci willing to lie publicly, he was privately telling others to lie for him.

        Number Three: In June 2021, Fauci said, “Attacks on me, quite frankly, are attacks on science. All of the things I have spoken about, consistently, from the very beginning, have been fundamentally based on science. Sometimes those things were inconvenient truths for people.”

        In what crisis have dubbed “the most narcissistic statement of all-time,” Fauci argued that criticism of him is really a critique of science itself. It’s evident that Fauci views himself as the embodiment and true personification of science. He believes that when Fauci speaks, it’s really science speaking. And thus, his statements must always be factual and true.

        In reality, Fauci is human and flawed like the rest of us. He regularly makes mistakes and even lies. In fact, it’s precisely Fauci’s dangerous level of narcissism and egomania that can makes him more prone to mistakes and lies as he aims to protect himself above all else. This is why Fauci predominantly lies about things that would personally make him look bad.

        Inside Fauci’s home, his gigantic office walls are “adorned with portraits of him, drawn and painted by some of his many fans.” Reporter Sheryl Gay Stolberg says, “It was a revealing glimpse into the psyche of America’s most loved and hated doctor.”

        Billionaire business mogul Elon Musk mockingly joked, “Maybe he just loves looking at science.”

        1. Billionaire business mogul Elon Musk mockingly joked, “Maybe he just loves looking at science.”

          Didn’t Elon willingly roll up his sleeve, and was even boosted?

        2. Anthony Fauci = Josef Mengele.

          He is guilty of MEDICAL GENOCIDE.

          Nuremburg 2.0 coming soon, and that murderous little elf will HANG ☠️

          1. ‘If you look around the globe, no governments that have governed through the Covid-19 period have fared particularly well when the next polls have rolled around’

            That sounds like a big f you Chris.

    3. “People in the throes of addiction were hanging out with other people in the throes of addiction without the rest of the community. ”

      Excuse me? So are they saying that IF ONLY those poor people with addiction disease got to hang out with the “community” of — uh — strangers going to work downtown(?) instead of being locked down, the addicts would all get motivated to heal themselves?

  4. ‘In Halton Hills, that difference translates to a more than $815,600 gap between the average price sellers are listing and what homebuyers are actually paying’

    Imagine having to cut 800k pesos on yer igloo to get it sold. When these numbers hit the averages and medians, it’ll look like armageddon.

    1. an overall average sale price below the average list price

      I’m thinking about this.

      an overall average sale price below the average list price

      My take is that it isn’t price reductions on individual houses being talked about. More like the above average priced houses simply aren’t selling.

  5. ‘Germany’s housing sector slumped deeper into crisis as project cancellations hit a record, prompting construction companies to become more pessimistic about the future than ever before…‘Many projects are no longer economically viable’ …As conditions deteriorate, the business climate for residential construction also plunged in September to its lowest level since the survey began in 1991, Ifo said. Almost half of companies complained about a lack of orders. ‘That’s a threefold increase over the past 12 months, which is a dramatic development’

    This sh$thole is sinking like a turd in a well.

  6. ‘It’s just so striking that even after the economy has cooled off … all I see are cranes everywhere around me,’ said Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives and a longtime Austin resident. ‘There are ‘for lease’ signs on these brand-new, beautiful buildings. Who is going to go there? I don’t know’

    As I was reading this earlier, I was wondering about just when did Austin go wrong? The article is right on many things: it used to be cheap to live in Austin. Dirt cheap. Food, beer, live music shows were free at all the places on 6th except Maggie Mae’s and one other I can’t remember. Now you better be carrying 100 pesos to go down there and that’s without eating.

    Back to the original question, if I had to pick a point, I’d say when they raised the building height. Developers couldn’t build higher than the capital. Now you can barely pick out the capital among the forest of ugly towers.

    1. BTW I’m not saying that one law change did it. It was that point in time. Development was a dirty word in Austin. A large number of people had always said, we don’t want to grow. But around this time the developers won over the city and county guberments.

  7. (DANGER, WARNING, and CAUTION: This article is only remotely related to housing but nevertheless makes for a good, informative read. Some of the notes are also worth perusing.)

    The Decline & Fall Of Luxury Goods

    For years now, luxury goods have thrived. It’s not surprising. There has been relative peace, seeming prosperity for the few, and a “Hunger Games” sense of “Let them eat cake” alive in the world. You see it in the lavish and widely advertised events of the Met Gala or the World Economic Forum in Davos. The well-to-do have been living it up with very conspicuous consumption.

    This was especially true with zero-percent interest rates, which lasted more or less from 2008 to 2021. This policy was a huge subsidy to the largest businesses and the peddlers of every conceivable absurdity, from crazy theories like DEI and ESG to decadence in goods and services.

    Just as it took away the reward for thrift, it was a boon to every extravagance.

    It made the cost of borrowed capital essentially free, while punishing savers.

    But declining economic fortunes come for everyone in the end, even those who imagine themselves insulated. This week we’ve seen the luxury brand stocks take a heavy hit.

    “LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton posted sales below analysts’ expectations for the third quarter,” writes the Wall Street Journal, “as the luxury industry grapples with inflation and high interest rates that are squeezing consumer spending.”

    “The owner of Louis Vuitton and Dior brands has struggled to lure big-spending Chinese consumers back as Chinese tourism has been slow to pick up again since the pandemic. China was the world’s largest luxury market before Covid-19 hit.”

    Indeed, the stock has been utterly slammed, hitting a low for the year after a very long and hugely lucrative run-up.

    Not all is well in the world economy, not even in China, and so now we see luxury brands taking it on the chin. Inflation and high interest rates are the culprit. Borrowed capital is finally experiencing a positive cost for the first time in a decade and a half. This has imposed a slow but relentless squeeze on all bank accounts, even the most well-endowed ones.

    You have surely encountered these brands in the past. Walking through the best airports, you see jewelers, handbag sellers, and fashion designers with fancy things on sale. You get interested, and then your eye catches the price. It’s astonishing and you almost cannot believe that anyone buys them. But they do. The question is why.

    Luxury goods like this have long fascinated economists because they stress the normal laws of demand. Usually with a single good, all other conditions remaining the same, the lower the price, the greater the intensity of demand for the same good. But sometimes, the opposite happens. The higher the price, the more people are convinced of the merit of the purchase.

    These are divided between two classes: so-called Veblen goods and Giffen goods.

    The Veblen good is one that obtains higher demand due to the way in which its status triggers a sense that it should be more valuable.

    The Giffen good is one in which the price rise itself signals a great broad demand regardless of social status.

    French wines might be Veblen goods whereas Bitcoin might be Giffen goods, bought for fear of missing out.

    Regardless, both run contrary to conventional wisdom about the relationship between demand and price. I have often wondered why in the world someone would spend $3,000 for a handbag whereas you can obtain something very close to it from eBay for 1/100th the price. The reason has to do with consumer confidence in the product. If even one person asks the question “Where did you get it?” you can answer with confidence and feel great about that.

    For some people, that is worth a lot of money.

    I’ve felt this way about many wines too. Yes, I can taste the difference between a $12 wine and a $120 wine (I think?) but it doesn’t matter to me. But for some people, sky-high prices signal quality (“You get what you pay for”) and so spending extra comes with great benefits.

    But all of this is provided that you can afford it.

    We can indulge in all such personal and cultural scrupulosity over brands and status provided that they fit within the family budget. It’s the same on the supply side. When borrowed capital comes at zero price, there seems to be no limit to what is possible.

    For years, companies were tempted by the idea that so long as there was some revenue stream, it simply did not matter how leveraged the company could become. So long as there were lenders, there were borrowers. So long as there were consumers, there were companies ready to leverage up.

    The dreams of infinite prosperity under a central bank willing to bear the cost forever, if only to keep the financial sector afloat, all seem well. It went on long enough to tempt the entire financial culture to believe it would last forever.

    But when times are tough, these luxury goods tend to be the first things to go. You figure out how to be happy with the used handbag from eBay or the lower-priced wine. When the cutting begins, this is the first place you cut.

    It was inevitable in these tough economic times—and despite the Biden administration’s pronouncements, these times are increasingly grim—that luxury goods of all types would end up on the chopping block. The stock prices of the luxury brands are a telling predictor of what is to come. If present trends continue, we could see a widespread selloff, together with a closing of high-end retail outlets that have long relied on splurging consumers to provide the cash flow.

    We might consider what other luxury goods we as a country consume. A huge welfare state, bases in countries all over the world, bailouts for anyone and everyone, free medical care for anyone in need, and medical experiments on the whole population just to try out fancy new drugs and disease mitigation strategies. This is just for starters. These are the luxuries of prosperity.

    It’s time we prepare, and this includes the very rich. The closet full of Louis Vuitton bling doesn’t put food on the table or pay the mortgage. It sure was good while it lasted.

    1. “It sure was good while it lasted.”

      No it wasn’t. It was, and is, an epochal disaster whose costs haven’t begun to make themselves felt.

    2. I suspect that one of the reasons the sales of luxury goods are down is because the posers are broke as a joke.

      1. People buying things they don’t need, with money they don’t have to impress people they don’t know.

        Welcome to the new America.

        1. To be fair, it’s been that way for a long time, though lately it has reached toxic levels of narcissism,

  8. (OMG! Here is another non-housing related but worthwhile article! Just when will it all end?)

    Did The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Just Sink Ukraine As A Warhawk Darling?

    By most accounts from the front and according to the strategic information currently on hand, the war in Ukraine is all but over and Russia has essentially won. Russia continues to occupy at least 20% of Ukrainian lands and has solidified its lines. As expected, Ukraine’s much hyped counteroffensive was hot air and it is clear that their ability to field combat ready soldiers has been greatly diminished. Without an offensive capable military, Ukraine has nothing left except whatever mid range arms NATO gives them to harass Russian forces to minimal effect. All Putin has to do is bide his time until the money and weapons run out.

    But even worse still for Zelensky and friends is the fact that the propaganda machine driving western sentiment and monetary support is quickly dying. Admissions of “war fatigue” among Americans and Europeans are beginning to surface and majority support for further funding has ended. Without a clear outline of what victory in Ukraine actually looks like, and with many in the west facing stagflationary crisis, enthusiasm has floundered. It should also be noted that the war in Ukraine never garnered any meaningful American support for the deployment of troops, and for good reason.

    No one wants to jump headlong into WWIII.

    With Ukraine becoming the ugly girl at the school dance, the attention of establishment warhawks (Neo-cons and Democrats) has swiftly shifted over to Israel, much to the dismay of Zelensky. The Ukrainian leader warned in an interview with a France 2 broadcaster:

    “There is a risk that international attention will turn away from Ukraine, and that will have consequences…”

    Zelensky has desperately tried to associate Ukraine with Israel as if the two nations are engaged in the same fight. He even went as far as to insinuate that Vladimir Putin was the mastermind behind the destabilization of the Middle East and insisted that NATO funding packages for Israel should be tied to funding packages for Ukraine.

    Let’s not forget how disjointed and strange a Ukraine/Israel association would be, given Ukraine’s Nazi leanings. This is the same government that actually invited a real life Nazi SS officer to be applauded by Canada’s parliament as a war hero just last month. The disconnect may be the reason why the Israelis rejected military aid to Ukraine for so long.

    The Biden Administration is running with the multi-war package idea, asking Congress to approve additional funding for Ukraine, but attaching it to a plan which would include funding for Israel, Taiwan, and US border security. In other words, if conservatives want the border to be protected, they must agree to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on two ongoing war fronts as well as a third potential front with China.

    It is highly unlikely according to officials on both sides of the aisle that this will succeed. But, when the establishment piles on a host of different projects into a single funding plan, it is usually because this allows them to enter into false negotiations. That is to say, there are certain projects they actually want and others they don’t care about. They cut the funding programs they never intended to keep so that congress can feel like they gained something in the bargain. The question is, which war do they really want to fund, knowing they will not get congressional approval for both?

    Israel is better placed to become the new warhawk darling, given the country garners more sentiment from US and European conservatives who are increasingly wary of Ukraine. The far-left support of Ukraine and their rabid anti-Russia propaganda has left many conservatives suspicious of the entire affair. Leftists are revealing a similar zealotry in favor of Palestinian intifada, which might convince people on the right to support Israel by default.

    Right or wrong, it’s easier to find Republicans that favor Israel simply on religious grounds than it is to find those that care about Ukraine, and this seems to be the key to the future of the establishment agenda – A conservative majority must be onboard for any new war endeavor to last. Ukraine’s failures have proven that.

    There may be an overestimation, however, in terms of how many conservatives are open to funding yet another foreign quagmire. Fears of Islamic extremism are justified, but not necessarily enough to compel Americans to ignore their own mounting problems at home. Selling them on a plan to commit US funds and even military forces to Israel might be more difficult than the establishment thinks.

    1. The whole Ukraine ,Trying to make them look like the victims ,makes no sense, never has .
      Almost all Ukrainian people I have tryed to deal with here in the USA have tried to take advantage, can’t be trusted , think that’s just ingrained in the culture.
      The Isrealis aren’t much better , they’re the one’s will try to hit your car in the parking lots, to get insurance ,and stuff like that.
      Why don’t we just stay on our own part of the world, we have no reason to try police the rest of the world ?

      1. I left Celsius just before it collapsed as I realized that it was a slim shady operation run by a Ukranian Jew (Alex Mashinsky). Most of the executive committee was in Israel. There were a lot of good people there but the executive leadership team were mostly dirt bags.

        The former CFO was thrown in jail as was Alex Mashinsky (CEO). The entire exec team should have the money clawed back from their absurd sales of the company’s CEL token right before the collapse. They told customers to HODL while the execs sold and then used customer and investor funds to purchase CEL to drive up the price.

        After all of this phuckery they blame everything else but themselves

        SBF was not much better in the FTX fiasco.

  9. Joe Biden’s America:

    “A train derailment near Pueblo has shut down both directions of Interstate 25 Sunday.

    The derailment occurred near Mile Marker 107 and prompted the closure of the interstate around 4 p.m.

    Photos of the scene provided by SMART Local 202 and the Pueblo County Sheriff’s Office show several crushed railroad cars and coal on the roadway.

    The Colorado State Patrol said motorists should expect an extended closure of the interstate. A detour route has been established.”

    That unelected clown is supposed to be in Pueblo today crowing about his Soviet command economy doomed to fail policies, how fitting the bridge collapsed the day before.

    Secretary Pete was too busy chest feeding the baby and could not be reached for comment.

  10. (Joking Joe Biden at his best …)

    Video: Biden Says U.S. Has “An Obligation” To Be Involved In Wars In Israel And Ukraine

    During a CBS 60 Minutes Interview over the weekend, Joe Biden argued that America has “an obligation” to get involved in foreign wars, adding that “We can take care of both of these” while referring to the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel.

    Host Scott Pelley asked Biden “Are the wars in Israel and Ukraine more than the United States can take on at the same time?”

    Biden replied, “We’re the United States of America for God’s sake! The most powerful nation in the history, not in the (world), in the history of the world! The history of the world!”

    He continued to blather, “We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defense. We have the capacity to do this and we have an obligation to. We are the essential nation, to, to paraphrase the former secretary of State. And if we don’t who does?”

    It seems Biden was attempting to quote Madeline Albright, who said in 1998 that America is the “indispensable nation.”

    Since when did the U.S. have “an obligation” to fight foreign wars?

    (Now for the punch line – every joke has one …)

    In the same interview, Biden also declared that he’s sure he wants to serve a second term in order to achieve world peace.

  11. Biden Admin instructs banks to accept loan applications from undocumented immigrants.


    The Biden Administration​ Warns Financial Institutions Against Rejecting Credit Applications from Illegal Immigrants ​Based on ⁣Immigration Status

    The​ Biden administration has issued a ⁤strong warning ⁣to U.S. banks​ and other financial institutions, ⁢stating that they cannot reject credit‌ applications from illegal immigrants solely because of their immigration status. This recent announcement by the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) emphasizes that⁢ such actions are unlawful.

    “Lenders should not deny people the opportunity⁢ to take out a loan to buy a home, build their businesses or otherwise ⁢pursue their financial⁤ goals ‍because of unlawful bias and ‍without regard to their actual ability to repay,”

    – Assistant Attorney General Kristen ​Clarke, ⁤DOJ’s⁣ Civil Rights ⁢Division

    1. they cannot reject credit‌ applications from illegal immigrants

      Cross the border illegally. Instead of going to jail, go to the bank and take out a loan. Go home, with the cash. Pick up a free college degree if you want. Then go home.

    2. Don’t you need a decent credit score to borrow money, especially for unsecured loans? Or will that also be waived?

      1. they cannot reject credit‌ applications from illegal immigrants

        Hopefully the banks can treat the applications from the Illegal immigrants like they can treat the applications for US citizens. Banks must accept applications, but they don’t have to make the loans.
        I recall Buy here pay here Car companies screaming during their commercials “All credit applications accepted!” Not all get loans

  12. Is the National Association of Used Home Sellers about to lose its monopoly stranglehold on the US housing market?

    1. The Real Deal Logo
      NAR warns of “Wild West” if plaintiffs win broker commission lawsuit
      Trial for Sitzer/Burnett, first of two landmark suits, slated to begin Oct. 16
      NAR Claims Consumer Consequences Ahead Of Antitrust Trial
      Oct 11, 2023, 3:18 PM
      By Sheridan Wall

      The National Association of Realtors laid out a doomsday scenario for the industry in the case home sellers prevail in two landmark antitrust cases.

      The group warned that a ruling in the plaintiff’s favor could render buyer’s agents unaffordable, block equal access to listings and restrict buyer choice, NAR’s general counsel Lesley Muchow said. The trade group held the online webinar five days before Sitzer/Burnett, the first of the two closely watched suits, is slated to start trial in Kansas City.

      “This would be bad news for consumers,” Muchow said. She added that if NAR isn’t allowed to continue with some of its practices, “we would be forced back into the 19th Century or what we see as the Wild West, where unscrupulous people could regularly defraud clients.”

      1. It sounds like NAR is going to hold the MLS hostage if this passes… “I’ll shoot this puppy if you do it! You better not!”

        Somebody could build a website or three where homes could be listed on interwebzzz with or without the MLS. Gosh I wonder if that has been done already?

  13. MarketWatch
    Market Extra
    UBS says Treasurys are poised for a powerful rebound as outlook for U.S. stocks dims
    Published: Oct. 16, 2023 at 9:41 a.m. ET
    By Joseph Adinolfi
    Treasury bonds are coming off of one of their worst routs of all time. But amid the carnage, one major European investment bank sees opportunity.

    Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note to clients shared with MarketWatch on Monday that a “soft-ish” landing for the U.S. economy, coupled with his expectation for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts later next year, should eclipse concerns about the U.S. budget deficit and spark a powerful rebound in Treasurys.

      1. Oh, there’s plenty of buyers for US Treasuries. The problem is, these new buyers aren’t friendly wink-wink-nod-nod-knowhatimean central banks. These are retail investors like us, and we’re not hanging out here just to prop up our buddies. We demand our 5% cut, and if we don’t get it, say sayonara.

    1. MarketWatch is a study in manipulation. I will occasionally open their home page to browse article titles. That people can’t see it amazes me. I know longer look at sites like that without asking what they’re trying to manipulate or hide. And by asking those questions you can come to your own conclusions about what’s actually going on.

      1. I stopped going to Marketwatch when they put up a paywall for their worthless click-bait articles. If I want to know the index prices, I can get that on my phone.

  14. Barrie Condos Sales Plummet By 35%: Exploring The Market Decline
    Mark Turcotte
    23 hours ago

    In this video, we delve into the current state of the Barrie condo market, uncovering a startling decline in sales by a staggering 35%. Join us as we analyze the factors contributing to this plummet and gain valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of the real estate landscape. Discover the key reasons behind this alarming decline, including a rapid surge in property prices, changes in buyer preferences, and the impact of external economic factors. We navigate through these challenges, providing you with comprehensive information to help you make informed decisions about Barrie condo investments.

    13:47. K-da.

  15. The Real Estate Market has shifted in the Belleville area! | September Market Update
    Living in Belleville | Jeremy Tremblay
    18 hours ago

    It’s now mid Oct 2023, and the local market has had a notable shift in the buyers favour. This video looks at some stats to show whats really going on.

    On this channel we talk about living in Belleville Ontario, moving to Belleville, selling in Belleville and buying in Belleville. And of course, we also look at all the surrounding areas in Trenton, Frankford, Stirling, Brighton, and Prince Edward County.

    If you are looking to move out of Toronto or the GTA, Belleville and area is located just 1.5 hours up the 401 in the Bay of Quinte. The local jobs market is growing and housing is still affordable!

    10 minutes.

    1. housing is still affordable!

      Sorry Jeremy, houses @ 7x income in a gritty little industrial town not commutable to Toronto is anything but affordable.

  16. Russia Today (10/16/2023):

    “The Israeli military is prepared for a “long war” and will fight until it achieves complete victory over its enemies, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday during a speech at the opening of the winter session of the national parliament.

    Netanyahu said that Israel was now fighting for its very existence and expressed confidence that his country would eventually win total victory over Hamas, the Palestinian resistance group that launched a surprise assault on Israeli territories near Gaza last week, killing and wounding hundreds of people.”

    A long war?

    Have you considered paying for it yourself, instead of taking more gibs from U.S. taxpayers?


  17. The Covid Saga.

    Oh for God Sakes, they deliberately released the Covid bio weapon.
    All the evidence shows they planned the Panademic, and they executed the pandemic.
    Lets get serious here. They want you to argue over if it came out of nature verses accidentally released from a lab.
    Firstly, the creation of a bio-weapon gain of function virus in a foreign rival nation China , when it was banned in US is your first clue.
    Overwhelming evidence of pre planning for this specific gain of function virus.
    Objective was a countermeasure of a one solution expiermental Covid fake vaccine, with censorship of any dispute.
    Lockdowns and masks were fake countermeasures to released virus.
    Argue all you want, but they deliberately released something, that might of not been a virus even, and they transferred wealth, they destroyed business, they rigged the election, and they violated the constitution of US, and fraudulently marketed a fake new technology vaccine, that they knew wasn’t safe or effective.
    Than they have been covering up the massive death, injury, mal practice hospital deaths, etc , and the massive deliberate harm they unleashed on humanity.
    Its deliberate, and.everything they do is deliberate and planned out.

    1. “Woke” Harvard students being blacklisted for life, while learning a very expensive lesson about our unelected rulers, is a twofer.

    1. As Margaret Thatcher once said, the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.

  18. (I ran across this …)

    Netanyahu in 2019: Israel Must ‘Support Bolstering Hamas and Transferring Money to Hamas’

    Bibi Netanyahu and his ideological ilk represent more of an existential threat to the continued existence of the Israeli state – and possibly the world if it gets dragged into its geopolitical melodrama — than any foreign adversary ever could hope to.

    What many casual news consumers might not know, even ones who consider themselves “informed” – in large part because MSNBC/CIA-funded Washington Post would never tell them – is that Hamas is in no small measure a creation of the Israeli state.

    This is not to mean “creation of the Israeli state” in the figurative, obscure sense of “Israel forced the birth of Hamas-style militancy through its Apartheid policies in the Gaza Strip,” although that is certainly true.

    I literally mean to say the Israeli government actively and directly participated in creating and propping up Hamas in the service of its own political machinations.

    Straight from the horse’s mouth, here’s how Netanyahu schemed behind the scenes for years to promote the terrorist group he now publicly decries and postures as the savior from.

    Via Haaretz:

    “Effectively, Netanyahu’s entire worldview collapsed over the course of a single day. He was convinced that he could make deals with corrupt Arab tyrants while ignoring the cornerstone of the Arab-Jewish conflict, the Palestinians. His life’s work was to turn the ship of state from the course steered by his predecessors, from Yitzhak Rabin to Ehud Olmert, and make the two-state solution impossible. En route to this goal, he found a partner in Hamas.

    ‘Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,’ he told a meeting of his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.”

    On learning that Netanyahu told his comrades this, one might ask obvious questions: Why would Netanyahu be interested in keeping Palestine balkanized politically? Especially when all the government publicly proclaims to desire is peace with its Arab neighbors? Wouldn’t a stable Palestinian state not obsessed with annihilating the Jews serve those purported Israeli interests?

    Well, a non-militant Palestinian state might serve the interests of an average Israeli living in a village on the border of Gaza, but not Netanyahu’s interests nor those of the base of fanatical religious warmongers he caters to.

    Keeping Hamas alive and well-funded, as Netanyahu explicitly called for, creates permanent instability. Instability, in turn, lends itself to either active war or the constant threat of war, not peace. And war is the health of the Israeli state.

    If peace broke out in the Middle East, creatures like Netanyahu would be liable to suddenly find themselves out of a job. They might have to make an honest day’s living for once in their miserable lives.

    Netanyahu feeds politically off of endless conflict with Israel’s regional rivals. War breathes life into his otherwise listless and deflated political ideology. What other ideas for governance has this warmonger ever had except more war?

    In the immediate term, war furthermore keeps him out of jail for the time being, as he was under serious, career-threatening legal scrutiny for corruption allegations at the time of the Hamas attack. Now, as the Israeli citizenry “rallies around the flag,” the nation temporarily forgoes internal political conflict.

    Related: No, the Hamas Invasion Was Not an Israeli ‘Intelligence Failure’

    Netanyahu and the self-styled Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, are two peas in a pod in this regard. War is the health of their respective states, and they and their parties are the primary beneficiaries. Without it, they would be nothing but your average middle-aged, flabby slobs schlubbing their way through life.

    In fact, in much the same way that there is no way Israeli intelligence was unaware of impending Hamas attacks, I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that Netanyahu and Khamenei are coordinating behind the scenes to see if they can’t finagle a potentially apocalyptic regional, if not global, war out of the current mess – and, again, if possible, drag the United States, Russia, and God knows what other states into it in the process.

    Of course, neither the Supreme Leader (what a stupid title) nor Netanyahu will be doing any fighting themselves. They’re much too cowardly and physically flimsy for any of that. Those personal traits are largely why they’re politicians in the first place.

    They’ll simply puppeteer the apocalypse from behind the scenes. It’ll be poor kids conscripted from dusty villages sent to the meat grinder.

    How history has a way of rhyming! Back in the 1980s, in an entirely different conflict in the same region of the world, it was the United States that propped up a band of religious fanatics fighting, at the time, the Soviet Union that had invaded and occupied Afghanistan in 1979.

    Ronald Reagan’s Deep State handlers went so far as to invite them to the White House.

    As unstable religious fanatics who feed off of perpetual war are wont to do, they eventually switched allegiances and set their sights on the United States, of course. After all, with the Soviet Union vanquished, the Taliban needed a new war to start.

    Many people living quiet lives in New York City died as a result, but the American neocons got a whole fresh set of wars out of the deal, with fresh license to kill more poor people overseas. Raytheon and Boeing stocks went through the roof. The Middle East was further destabilized, giving rise to ISIS, a failed state in Libya, and guaranteeing future war.

    And around and around we go, pretending as if the vaunted statesmen who start wars for a living are anything other than bloodthirsty warmongers playing geopolitical chess with other people’s children.

    But they’re brave and serious leaders of resolve, and I and anyone else who challenges them are the “domestic terrorists,” per the ADL, of course.

  19. MarketWatch — Pfizer confronts ‘peak of anti-vaccination rhetoric’ as shares rebound (10/16/2023):

    “Pfizer Inc. on Monday sought to reassure investors that it can slash costs to repair the damage done by underwhelming COVID-19 product sales.

    On a call with analysts Monday morning, Pfizer executives outlined cost reductions first announced late Friday. The cost-cutting program, designed to deliver savings of at least $3.5 billion, “will touch all parts of the business and all regions,” Pfizer Chief Financial Officer Dave Denton said on the call.

    “We are right now in the middle of COVID fatigue, where everyone wants to forget about the disease, and we are experiencing a peak of anti-vaccination rhetoric,” Pfizer CEO Dr. Albert Bourla said on the call.


    We’re just getting warmed up. And you’re going to swing from a noose for the MEDICAL GENOCIDE you are complicit it. Eat sh*t and die 🙂

  20. They made a 27 point comeback in 15 minutes 🤯
    PSC Highlights

    15 hours ago

    The college football game between Idaho State and Eastern Washington saw the Bengals pull off an improbable fourth quarter comeback. Eastern Washington took a 41-14 lead late in the third quarter, but Idaho State pulled off a plethora of big plays and recovered an onside kick to somehow pull off a 42-41 win. The victory marked the first Idaho State victory over Eastern Washington since 2005.

    8 minutes. This is some good football.

    1. This is some good football.

      When I watch, I watch college games. The NFL is boring and way too rainbowy for me.

  21. ‘No one wants to be the first to drop rates…They’re in for a lot of money’

    Hold the line boys, the stakes are high!

  22. ‘In 1995, the city’s average home value was about double the national mean; a quarter century later, it was five times as much’

    The national mean was probably up five times as much too.

  23. Why EVs Are Piling Up At Dealerships In The U.S.

    6 hours ago

    In August 2023, it took about twice as long to sell an EV in the U.S. as it did the previous January. Prices of EVs are down 22% year-over-year and that’s mainly driven by Tesla. About two thirds of EVs sold are Elon Musk’s brand. Companies like Ford have ramped up hybrid production as demand has leveled off. While slightly more than half of consumers say EVs are the future and will eventually replace Internal Combustion Engines, less than a third of dealers say so. This all comes at a time when investments in EVs are more than ever. So what’s really going on?


  24. China’s Silicon Valley Is Doomed! Beijing’s Malls Are Deserted & Many Shanghai Shops Have Shut Down
    China Observer
    55 minutes ago

    In September, a Beijing local filmed the vacant streets and malls of Zhongguancun, China’s “Silicon Valley.” The once jam-packed Sci-Tech mall is now predominantly occupied by wholesalers with a sprinkling of individual retailers. Businesses that remain either serve online consumers or cater to larger clients; traditional retail seems almost non-existent.

    Zhongguancun, a hub for tech industries and startups, earned its reputation as China’s epicenter for innovation. However, after facing the brunt of a three-year pandemic and economic setbacks, numerous companies in Zhongguancun have shut their doors. Now the vacant offices and stores make the entire area look eerily quiet.

    12 minutes.

  25. Are you missing the chance of a lifetime to buy the dip in Treasurys when risk assets (stocks, real estate, crypto, etc.) are dreadfully overvalued?

    1. Business Insider
      Treasury bond buyers are increasingly households – and they could help keep a lid on yields
      Filip De Mott
      16 October 2023, 15:56
      Picture shows the U.S. Treasury Department building at dusk in Washington.
      US Treasury Department.Patrick Semansky/AP
      Today’s yields are high enough to bring back bond buyers, Goldman Sachs said.

      Already, households have jumped into the bond market and now own 9% of outstanding Treasurys.

      But surging bond demand may put downside pressure on equities in the next year.

      The massive sell-off in Treasury bonds may have rattled markets over the past weeks, but enough new buyers are coming in to help keep a lid on yields, Goldman Sachs said.

    2. MarketWatch
      U.S. Treasurys have likely reached a bottom. But stocks have not, technical analyst says.
      Provided by Dow Jones
      Oct 9, 2023 9:24 AM PDT
      By Frances Yue

      U.S. Treasurys have likely already reached a bottom, while stocks have more room to fall, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG.

      Bonds have shown signs of a washout with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT, which tracks the performance of long-term Treasurys, saw the heaviest volume last week in its history, Krinsky wrote in a Sunday note. “Back-to-back record volume weeks for TLT culminating with one of the highest volume days on record on Friday. If this isn’t capitulation, we don’t know what is,” Krinsky wrote.

      Long-term Treasury yields have recently climbed to over-a-decade highs, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising over 5% on Friday to its highest level since 2007, according to Dow Jones market data. The U.S. Treasury market is closed on Monday for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day.

      “We continue to believe we are entering a period where the bond/stock correlation will flip and we will see rates fall with stocks,” noted Krinsky.

      1. Houses are not a productive asset. Government debt is not a productive asset. We jump from one to the other, producing only waste.

    3. Financial Times
      FT Alphaville  
      US Treasury bonds
      Americans ♥️ Treasuries
      Reading Goldman’s flow report
      Robin Wigglesworth YESTERDAY

      ‘Treasury-supply-is-lifting-yields’ is the Rasputin of bond market narratives, simply refusing to die whatever the actual evidence indicates.

      To be fair, it’s understandable that the US running a near $2tn annual budget deficit at a time when the economy is strong would freak some people out. Speaking to bond folks it seems plausible that the narrative of supply is leading to at least some of the recent yield uplift.

      But to paraphrase Jurassic Park’s Dr Ian Malcolm, markets find a way.

      Now, the big caveat is that the household component of Treasury holding data oddly includes hedge funds, and the massive ramp-up in household Treasury purchases therefore probably also reflects the increase in basis trades. That’s . . . not great, even if the leverage is lower these days.

      But the majority of the almost $700bn worth of Treasuries households bought in the first half of 2023 is probably just Americans taking advantage of much higher yields on offer. We’re now on pace for a $1.3tn Treasury buying spree by households.

      American households (plus hedge funds) on the whole now own 9 per cent of the US Treasury market, up from just 2 per cent at the start of 2022, according to Goldman Sachs.

      However, this has implications for equities. As Goldman’s David Kostin writes:

      “Recent volatility in the Treasury market has driven increased investor concern over the fiscal position of the United States and the supply/demand mismatch for Treasury securities. Our rates strategists believe increased Treasury supply will not catalyze further upside in yields. However, the attractive level of yields will continue to entice households to purchase yield-bearing assets rather than equities.”

      US households own 39 per cent of all US equities, dwarfing all other holders. And their current 42 per cent allocation to equities is now in the 96th percentile since 1952, according to Goldman.

      Foreign investors have been ramping up their purchases lately, but Kostin reckons that this is going to be swamped by Americans paring back their own US equity exposure.

      Coupled with pension plans also taking advantage of higher yields, this will leave US companies themselves as the only real significant pillar of US equity demand.

      It’s interesting that Goldman thinks that buybacks will rebound back above $500bn annually in 2023-2024. That’s way down from the $1tn plus annual rate we saw in the zirp era, but still feels punchy given the massive increase in borrowing costs.

      1. “And their current 42 per cent allocation to equities is now in the 96th percentile since 1952, according to Goldman.”

        That doesn’t seem sustainable in the aftermath of a protracted period of low risk premiums.

  26. HaHaHaHa!!! It doesn’t work that way in a recession, real liars. Nobody wants to risk buying when unemployment is rising, and homes just sit and sit on the market forever.

    1. DOW FUTURES -0.12%
      S&P 500 FUTURES -0.11%
      NASDAQ 100 FUTURES -0.13%

      Mortgage originations will surge 19% in 2024 as a recession will force rates down, MBA says
      Filip De Mott Oct 16, 2023, 12:40 PM PDT
      A row of American homes.
      US homeowners are sitting on roughly $29.6 trillion in home equity.
      Getty Images

      – Mortgage originations will jump next year, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted.

      – That’s because a mild recession will prompt the Fed to ease interest rates, meaning lower mortgage rates.

      – But home prices will still appreciate for the next three years due to low inventory.

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