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Once Hot Commodities Now Sit Quietly, Their For-Sale Signs Rustling In The Wind

A report from CBS 5. “Arizona is still dealing with a major teacher shortage months into the school year, with over 25% unfilled vacancies. Bullhead City has historically below-average housing costs, but Carolyn Stewart, Bullhead City School District superintendent, said the pandemic changed that. ‘Californians and Nevadans still wanted to come here,’ she said. ‘So they would do things like walk up to a house and knock on the door and say ‘can I buy your house.’ So prices went California high.'”

The Business Report in Louisiana. “The Capital Region’s housing market is continuing to shift and tighten, according to the latest data released by the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors. New listings in the Capital Region—defined as Ascension, East Baton Rouge and Livingston parishes—decreased 16.6% last month, while days on market until sale increased 74% to 54 days. Months supply increased nearly 50% to 3.6 months, as the market continues to shift to favor buyers. Ascension Parish saw the starkest changes. In the past month, new listings shrank nearly 34%, pending sales declined 42%, and closed sales dropped some 47%. The parish, considered one of the fastest growing in the state, also saw the highest increase to the time on market until sale: 88.5%, from 26 days to 49 days.”

Lodi News in California. “As the real estate market continues to cool in many areas of the country — including Lodi, some properties are still selling within days or hours of being listed. Surprisingly, those are the homes priced above $500k. igher interest rates have knocked some buyers out of the market, and typical first-time homes are sitting longer. There’s also been speculation that institutional investors have been scooping up all the higher-end homes for cash, but there’s no evidence of that happening here, says local Realtor Ryan Sherman. Investors are also not buying the $500,000 homes. ‘Not too many investors (are) picking up those properties for cash, just because the rent vs. price point does not cash flow,’ says Sherman.”

From Axios. “An influx of new apartment construction is helping to create a more hospitable market for Nashville renters. Meanwhile, luxury apartment complexes are rolling out new bargains. According to an analysis from Matthews Real Estate Investment Services, the vacancy rate for rental properties passed 10% in the second quarter of this year, higher than it’s been in 20 years. The firm predicted the vacancy rate could continue to grow through the rest of the year. The Tennessean recently reported that it’s become increasingly common to see large apartment buildings offer multiple months rent-free.”

“‘This is absolutely the most concessionary environment I’ve ever seen,’ said Joel Sanders, CEO of Apartment Insiders. ‘Whenever we would previously see some concessions being offered, three months free would pop up every now and then. So now I’m saying it’s a regular thing we see, and that’s somewhat unusual. I expect that to continue into 2024.'”

The Record in New Jersey. “A real estate investor who proposed building a $50 million, 127-unit housing project near Hinchliffe Stadium has put the property up for sale, and prominent Paterson developer Charles Florio said he may buy it. The lofts development has been one of the projects Mayor Andre Sayegh highlighted in the last 22 months as part of his effort to revitalize the Great Falls area. Paterson’s Planning Board approved the development in January 2022, but there has been little progress since then. Property owner Billy Procida said he began advertising the sale of the land several months ago. ‘I’m beyond frustrated,’ Procida told Paterson Press in an interview on Monday. ‘This was going to be my swan song and then I was going to retire.'”

Bisnow Houston in Texas. “Pacific Life Insurance was apparently unable to find a buyer for the Houston office building it foreclosed on last week, even though it was willing to accept more than a 50% discount, public records show. Pacific Life Insurance took back Four Westlake Park, a 588K SF, 20-story building in the Energy Corridor, for its starting bid of $30M after no one topped it at the Harris County foreclosure auction on Oct. 3, according to online records.”

“That is less than half of the $70M Pacific Life Insurance loaned to Treeview Real Estate Advisors to purchase the building in February 2020, and it is barely a third of the $86M at which the Harris Central Appraisal District valued the building in January. ‘The lender usually buys back only when the price at foreclosure didn’t hit their minimum,’ Shams Merchant, an attorney for Jackson Walker LLP based in Fort Worth, speaking generally and not about this specific transaction. ‘So now, the lender can now turn around and sell the property in order to recoup some of their losses on the loan.'”

“The same process seems to have happened for several other recent commercial foreclosures in Houston, though the discount the lenders are willing to accept varies. At the September foreclosure auction, lender MF1 sold a 282-unit multifamily complex, Aspire at 610, after its borrower defaulted on a $51M loan. Another multifamily complex, the 1,000-plus-unit Cabo San Lucas, sold at the August foreclosure auction to another newly created LLC for $50M. Ellington Management Group originally issued the $65.2M loan on the property. Houston office loan distress remains significant. CMBS loans on 26 properties with a collective loan balance of almost $973M are in distress, or about 23% of all office CMBS loans in Houston, according to a third-quarter Avison Young office report.”

From Bloomberg. “The chill of autumn leaves is mirrored in Canada’s housing market, as the nation grapples with a significant correction from its pandemic peak. Homes, once hot commodities, now sit quietly, their for-sale signs rustling in the wind. The market’s pulse has slowed, with existing home sales dropping by over 38% from their zenith in February 2022, and new listings following suit with an almost 20% decrease. Prices have not been immune to this chill, with the average home price falling by nearly 20%, and the benchmark home price, a more nuanced measure adjusting for market composition, has seen a roughly 14% decrease. Affordability issues, much like permafrost, may hinder a quick rebound. Prospective buyers, particularly in expensive markets such as British Columbia and Ontario, face the daunting task of finding affordable homes. Quebec is also predicted to face a chill in the coming months due to high-interest rates.”

From News.com.au. “One of Perth’s biggest builders appears to be on the ropes financially as the Australian Taxation Office issues it with a wind up order. Simsai Construction Group, an Osborne Park based builder which oversees First Home Buyers Direct, Multi Develop 360, and Express Homes, is understood to have up to 100 properties in the pipeline. Winding up orders, also known as compulsory liquidation, are usually issued by courts on behalf of administrators, forcing a company to cease trading so its assets can be sold in order to pay creditors. Simsai itself remains defiant in the face of the ATO’s wind-up order. ‘We are aware of the order and we hope to have it sorted in the next two to three weeks,’ a spokesperson told The West Australian newspaper. ‘We are not going to comment further.'”

“First Home Buyers Direct touts itself on its website as ‘one of the best first home builders in Perth,’ offering house and land packages from ‘as little as $295 per week,’ with no progress payments. The news comes just one day after it was revealed fellow Perth-based builder Intellibuild had gone under, just one of many building companies which have collapsed both in WA and across the country in 2023.”

The Wall Street Journal. “China’s property market meltdown created a multibillion-dollar opportunity for distressed-debt investors. It hasn’t paid off. The country’s real-estate sector is reeling from a yearslong slowdown that has put strains on the economy, sparked widespread protests and triggered defaults on around $81 billion of Chinese developers’ international bonds between 2021 and 2022, according to figures from S&P Global Ratings. The wave of defaults in the sector proved irresistible to many distressed-debt funds. These funds buy the bonds or loans of struggling companies, often at a price well below face value, and negotiate with the companies to work out a debt restructuring plan. They flooded into the market two years ago, including buying many of the outstanding bonds of developers China Evergrande Group, KWG Group and China Aoyuan Group, according to a Hong Kong-based trader.”

“But the distressed-debt playbook isn’t working in China. Dozens of Chinese property companies have defaulted on their bonds over the last two years, but only a handful have paid investors back any money. Last month, Evergrande abandoned a $35 billion debt restructuring plan that it had finally agreed with some of its investors after protracted negotiations. China Aoyuan still hasn’t completed a deal more than 18 months after it defaulted.”

“Most dollar bonds sold by Chinese property companies are trading below 10 cents on the dollar, and several are trading at less than 5 cents, according to research firm CreditSights. ‘The market is showing all the signs that it’s lost patience,’ said Jean-Charles Sambor, head of emerging markets fixed income at BNP Asset Management. ‘When you see these bonds now trading below 10 cents on the dollar, it tells you that investors expect a very low recovery, or total liquidation in some cases.'”

“Investment firms including Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich, SC Lowy in Hong Kong and New York-based Apollo Global Management bought Evergrande’s bonds in late 2021. At the time, one of its most actively traded bonds was worth around 20 cents on the dollar. The same bond is now trading at around 2.5 cents on the dollar. Vontobel has closed its position in Evergrande, said a spokesperson. SC Lowy sold most of the Chinese property bonds it held last year, according to Michel Lowy, its co-founder and chief executive. Apollo didn’t respond to a request for comment.”

“Robert Koenigsberger, founder and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management, said that distressed-debt investing can still work in China’s property sector. He said that after the wave of defaults in 2021, many investors rushed into the sector too soon—and paid too much. ‘They made the first classic mistake in distressed investing: They bought it because it was cheaper than it used to be, not cheap relative to what it was worth. You have to get involved in the sweet spot from both a timing and entry price perspective,’ said Koenigsberger, whose fund manages almost $6 billion of assets.”

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This Post Has 77 Comments

  1. ‘At the time, one of its most actively traded bonds was worth around 20 cents on the dollar. The same bond is now trading at around 2.5 cents on the dollar. Vontobel has closed its position in Evergrande’

    via GIPHY

    1. I think the world has forgotten, collectively, that investments from time-to-time can, and will go down to zero.

      1. Especially since several reports have described how these developers operated as a ponzi scheme. First they fooked the gringos that loaned them the money in the first place. In come the knife catchers and they got fooked too.

      2. I think the world has forgotten, collectively, that investments from time-to-time can, and will go down to zero.

        I would go a bit further and argue that investments can sometimes become negative. (you have to pay someone to take the property and all its legal requirements.)

  2. ‘Winding up orders, also known as compulsory liquidation, are usually issued by courts on behalf of administrators, forcing a company to cease trading so its assets can be sold in order to pay creditors. Simsai itself remains defiant in the face of the ATO’s wind-up order. ‘We are aware of the order and we hope to have it sorted in the next two to three weeks,’ a spokesperson told The West Australian newspaper. ‘We are not going to comment further’

    End of story!

      1. This is becoming true for a growing segment of the population. Perhaps their beater is their last asset and when it gives up the ghost it will be too expensive to fix or replace.

  4. “Pacific Life Insurance was apparently unable to find a buyer for the Houston office building it foreclosed on last week, even though it was willing to accept more than a 50% discount, public records show.

    I’m experiencing cognitive dissonance, as we lowbrows on the HBB were repeatedly assured by a self-described RE expert that 50% haircuts were purely & simply inconceivable.

  5. Dozens of Chinese property companies have defaulted on their bonds over the last two years, but only a handful have paid investors back any money.

    If there’s a downside to seeing offshore speculators who parked money in CCP property developers getting their fool heads handed to them, I’m not seeing it.

  8. “‘They made the first classic mistake in distressed investing: They bought it because it was cheaper than it used to be, not cheap relative to what it was worth. You have to get involved in the sweet spot from both a timing and entry price perspective,’ said Koenigsberger, whose fund manages almost $6 billion of assets.”

    They caught themselves a falling knife.

    1. And so will many “investors” raising funds to pounce on “cheap” commercial real estate.
      Remind me, what’s the value of an investment that has zero/negative cash flow? And, what I find the most interesting, is this talk of converting office space into xyz….as though that’s a piece of cake and doesn’t involve huge CAPEX, among other things.

  9. Now that Wall Street traders are used to the idea of higher-for-longer interest rates, is it time to back up the truck in preparation for the Santa Claus rally?

    1. Updated Tue, Oct 17 20239:40 AM EDT
      Stocks fall as concern over higher rates creeps back in: Live updates
      Alex Harring
      Hakyung Kim
      A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
      A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, September 6, 2022.
      Brendan McDermid | Reuters

      U.S. stocks slid on Tuesday, as rising bond yields once again weighed on investors and the third-quarter earnings season gained steam.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      dipped 96 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 lost 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.1%

      The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield
      topped 4.80%, reaching its highest level since Oct. 6 — when it traded at 4.887%. The move followed retail sales data that came in hotter than economists surveyed by Dow Jones had anticipated.

      Rising yields have pressured the broader market in recent weeks as traders assess the prospects of tighter Federal Reserve policy for longer than expected. Investors have also considered the potential impact from the Israel-Hamas war on the global economy.

      “Retail sales came in higher than expectations this morning which sent yields ripping back up to problematic levels for the market,” said Alex McGrath, chief Investment Officer of NorthEnd Private Wealth. “This print continues to weigh on investors struggling to digest neutral fed speak to gain traction on future fed actions.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/stock-futures-tick-up-as-wall-street-look-towards-busy-earnings-week-live-updates.html

    2. The odds of a year-end rally in the stock market are dwindling, Morgan Stanley’s top equity strategist says
      Matthew Fox
      Oct 16, 2023, 11:36 AM PDT
      Bloomberg TV

      – Chances of a year-end stock market rally are dwindling, according to Morgan Stanley’s top equity chief Mike Wilson.

      – Wilson reiterated his view that the S&P 500 will fall 11% from current levels to 3,900 by year-end.

      – “Weakening breadth and cautious internals reduce the odds of a fourth-quarter rally,” Wilson said.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-odds-of-year-end-equity-rally-dwindling-2023-10

  10. No Handyman Jobs. Everyone Is Broke And Scared
    The Bulletproof Handyman Business
    Oct 13, 2023
    The economy is taking a big hit lately which is affecting handyman gigs. This subject is why I came up with my Bulletproof method to ensure my family always has consistent income. Don’t worry, there is plenty of work to be had, you just have to know where to look. I would like to credit @utubehandyman for the inspiration for this particular video.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-baaBh4tYbE

    21:23.

    1. Don’t worry, there is plenty of work to be had, you just have to know where to look.

      And how much less to charge than just a year ago.

      1. Here’s the thing; the guys that didn’t go out and load up on debt by buying 100k truck and whatever else, acting like the party would never end, these are the dudes that are dead. But the ones that kept it simple and saw the party for what it was, these are the ones who can now charge $75, or less, and survive just fine. And even when work dries up completely, which it will, these are the guys who likely have planned for that too. I know some of these guys. And they just might make it.

        1. Someone I know got a bid earlier this year to have lawn sprinklers installed. The bid: $10,000

          I told him to wait until next year.

          1. Yep. And by then he’ll not only not have a problem getting call backs, most guys will be answering after the first ring.

        2. Early 90’s, Westchester County, NY. Reminds me of a guy we called to fix our gas stove. It was narrow, old, came with the house. He was a lovely guy, had the demeanor and look of someone who enjoyed his weed. He had that old stove working in no time. The nicest part of it was how pleased he was to get it working again. “It’s a nice old stove ☺️” We were happy, too, because he charged us a very fair price and the stove, though old, was quite enough to do what we needed it to do.

  11. Federal income taxes.

    Antiwar — Yellen Says The US Can Afford To Fund Wars In Gaza And Ukraine (10/16/2023):

    “Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen insisted on Monday that the US could “certainly” afford to fund the war in Ukraine and Israel’s onslaught on Gaza as the White House is looking for more military aid for both conflicts.

    Yellen said the House needs to elect a new speaker so the new funding could be authorized. “We do need to come up with funds, both for Israel and for Ukraine. This is a priority,” she said. “It’s really up to the House to find, seat a speaker and to put us in a position where legislation can be passed.”

    https://news.antiwar.com/2023/10/16/yellen-says-the-us-can-afford-to-fund-wars-in-gaza-and-ukraine/

    Keep paying those federal income taxes, cattle tax slaves.

  12. You will drive nothing.

    CNBC — Sparse inventory drives prices for new, used vehicles higher (10/17/2023):

    “The annual percentage rate on car loans jumped in the third quarter, according to Edmunds. The APR on loans for new vehicles rose to 7.4% and used-vehicles, to 11.2%, both levels last seen during the Great Recession.

    Historically, new model year vehicles would come into a dealer’s lot by the end of the summer to replace older inventory. At that point, dealers had motivation to offer discounts on leftover older models.

    However, this year “there are no leftovers,” said Tom McParland, regarding vehicles that serve the average consumer. McParland is a contributing writer for automotive website Jalopnik and operator of vehicle-buying service Automatch Consulting.

    “There’s really no such thing as a leftover 2023 Sienna Hybrid because these cars are selling six to nine months before they even arrive at the dealership,” he added.

    Car shoppers hardly saw similar end-of-summer sales last year either because of a chip shortage that reduced production levels, added Caldwell. The shortage of semiconductors during the pandemic led to a significant drop in produced vehicles, costing the auto industry billions in revenue.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/sparse-inventory-drives-prices-for-new-used-cars-higher.html

    There was no actual shortage, it was artificially created because of a minor respiratory illness with an infection fatality rate of 0.0000000001% with the full intention of destroying your standard of living.

    Another World Economic Forum success story.

    1. At this point, when I hear shills saying “muh tight supply forever!” about any asset class, I figure they have a glut they’re desperate to unload. Next they’ll be telling us there just aren’t enough Treasuries to go around.

      1. You got that right! Why have vehicles I have saved on CarGurus not disappeared after price cut after price cut. Got my eye on a few F150’s (2020 and newer with less than 30K) that have been on the market 150-plus days. Don’t believe a thing you read. These days you gotta do the research yourself even though it’s tough to uncover the truth. I refuse to be manipulated into idiotic decisions.

        1. A quick look at the local dealers inventories online shows that they overflowing with pickups. The local Ford dealer alone ahs 120 F-150’s available.

          Popular SUVs, hybrids and especially Toyotas seem to be not so plentiful on the new dealer lots.

  13. “However, this year “there are no leftovers,” said Tom McParland, regarding vehicles that serve the average consumer.”

    Chevy has loads of 2022 Suburban, Tahoe and Malibu models left over and it looks like every vehicle they make for 2023.

    SEARCH INVENTORY

    https://www.chevrolet.com/locate-inventory

    2. The local Chevy dealer has tons of pickups, Suburbans, Tahoes, etc. But smaller SUVs, the cheaper ones, are not as abundant. The local dealer has about 8- new pickups, but only one Chevy Blazer.

  14. This is a bit off topic as the Seattle area isn’t mentioned in the articles above, but there are some interesting trends I’ve noticed. I live close to new housing development. I walk my dog and go running through that area quite often. In August, there were seven new homes that had all fallen out of contract as the buyers were unable to sell their previous houses. By the end of September, all of the houses were sold to HB1 visa holders/temp workers – each buyer is an Indian SDE. These are not corporate purchased homes, I know the mortgage broker that kinked these deals…these mortgages are being approved with 8% + interest rates. It’s the very definition of crazy making as there are tons of stories out there where companies can, will, and do suddenly stop sponsoring and renewing these visas.

    No idea if this is happening elsewhere, but in my neck of the woods outside of Seattle it’s looking a lot like a mini Punjab.

    1. From what I have read, about 80,000 H1-B visas are issued every year. From what I have observed they prefer some metros over others. Not many in metro Dumver, but I could see them flocking to Seattle.

  15. This is a groomer article written by a groomer.

    Salon (via Archive) — What kids teach us about gender (10/17/2023):

    “Gender identity is not a decision. Trans children do not decide they are transgender, they decide to tell you.

    Throughout my career, I have had numerous parents of transgender kids approach me with a confusing combination of respect and inability to extend the same respect to their own children. I frequently receive the following question from adults:

    “Well, I understand you know who you are, Schuyler. You seem very articulate and mature, but you transitioned after you were a kid. At eighteen, right? What about the kids who are deciding this so young? Their brains haven’t even developed yet! Aren’t they too young to make this decision?”

    Usually the asker is a nervous parent who desperately wants the best for their child and is terrified that affirming the child’s transness will cause the child harm in the future. I have a great deal of empathy for this panic; I know that my mom struggled with this even though I was technically no longer a child when I came out.

    Kids are absolutely capable of knowing their gender identity; this is supported by a few key facts:

    First, according to major medical associations like the Mayo Clinic, gender identity forms as early as three to five years old. Gender identity is usually established long before sexual orientation, but because many people confuse these, they assume that gender cannot be known prior to adulthood. This is false. As soon as a child is able to verbalize their identity, they are capable of knowing it.”

    Three to five years old?

    “Of course, this does not mean that every kid realizes that they are transgender as a toddler.”

    The author wishes they did, and if not, will groom them to be.

    “Social and parental pressures as well as societal stereotypes of gender, which are often rigidly enforced at school and at home (and everywhere else), can cause many transgender individuals to remain presenting as the gender they were assigned at birth for many years — some unaware of the reasons behind any disconnect, some unaware of their transness altogether.”

    https://archive.ph/iPgsz

    Your property taxes are paying to promote this in the public schools.

    1. “Kids are absolutely capable of knowing their gender identity; this is supported by a few key facts:”

      (Yeah, right.)

      ‘I literally lost organs:’ Why detransitioned teens regret changing genders

      https://nypost.com/2022/06/18/detransitioned-teens-explain-why-they-regret-changing-genders/

      “I was failed by the system. I literally lost organs.”

      When Chloe was 12 years old, she decided she was transgender. At 13, she came out to her parents. That same year, she was put on puberty blockers and prescribed testosterone. At 15, she underwent a double mastectomy. Less than a year later, she realized she’d made a mistake — all by the time she was 16 years old.

      Now 17, Chloe is one of a growing cohort called “detransitioners” — those who seek to reverse a gender transition, often after realizing they actually do identify with their biological sex. Tragically, many will struggle for the rest of their lives with the irreversible medical consequences of a decision they made as minors.

      “I can’t stay quiet,” said Chloe. “I need to do something about this and to share my own cautionary tale.”

      In recent years, the number of children experiencing gender dysphoria in the West has skyrocketed. Exact figures are difficult to come by, but, between 2009 and 2019, children being referred for transitioning treatment in the United Kingdom increased 1,000% among biological males and 4,400% among biological females. Meanwhile, the number of young people identifying as transgender in the US has almost doubled since 2017, according to a new Centers for Disease Control & Prevention report.

      Historically, transitioning from male to female was vastly more common, with this cohort typically experiencing persistent gender dysphoria from a very young age. Recently, however, the status quo has reversed, and female-to-male transitions have become the overwhelming majority.

      Dr. Lisa Littman, a former professor of Behavioral and Social Sciences at Brown University, coined the term “rapid onset gender dysphoria” to describe this subset of transgender youth, typically biological females who become suddenly dysphoric during or shortly after puberty. Littman believes this may be due to adolescent girls’ susceptibility to peer influence on social media.

      (Go to the link to read the rest of the article.)

  16. Housing
    Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust
    Residential real-estate market hindered by mortgage rates, limited inventory
    Sales dropped in 2022, prices remained high
    Rosie Ettenheim/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
    By Nicole Friedman
    Updated Oct. 16, 2023 9:30 am ET

    The highest mortgage rates in 23 years are dragging down home sales to their lowest levels since the subprime crisis period.

    Sales of previously owned homes in 2023 are expected to dwindle to a rate not seen since at least 2011, when the U.S. population was smaller and the country was still recovering from one of the worst housing crises ever, according to many economist forecasts.
    …

    1. 10yr back up to 4.85. Not relief for rates. The Fed doesn’t even have to keep raising for mortgage rates to keep on climbing. It is gonna be a very chilly winter in the lending industry. 🥶

    2. Redfin’s chief economist estates 4.1 million homes will sell by year-end, roughly matching 2008. But the figure shows about 2.75 million sold through August (8 months). If homes sold at the same rate through the holiday season, that would get you up to 4.1 million. With the seasonal slowdown plus rates trying to breach 8%, I doubt this will happen.

    1. Comments from the infowars article…

      5 minutes ago

      Once you strip the media of its ability to paint you into a corner before asking you a question, then suddenly there are common sense questions being asked instead of activism. Go figure.

      A Republican in the United States in that same situation would just wet his or her pants.

      23 minutes ago

      That ladies and gentlemen is how you deal with Commie’s masquerading as journalists.

      https://www.infowars.com/

  18. Starting to see the first foreclosures in a while come on the market in my area. 3 in the last week. Lots of price decreases. Many listings back 2021 pricing and not moving. Also seeing price reductions and incentives in rental market.

  20. ‘Bullhead City has historically below-average housing costs, but Carolyn Stewart, Bullhead City School District superintendent, said the pandemic changed that. ‘Californians and Nevadans still wanted to come here,’ she said. ‘So they would do things like walk up to a house and knock on the door and say ‘can I buy your house.’ So prices went California high’

    Carol is exaggerating a bit. The shacks and trailers never will be that high, but they are 2, 3 times the price in the not so recent years and in one category (trailers) up 10 times or more from the bottom. Most are 40 years old or older. Now that’s yer federal loan guarantee scam making things affordable again in Bullhead City!

    2. Israel spokesman says Israel did not do this.. it was a Hamas errant rocket.
      Would Hamas do this deliberately just to be able to blame it on Israel?

        1. It is now confirmed definite news; the hospital was hit by an errant Hamas rocket. News organizations jumped the gun in reporting with no evidence that Israel had bombed the hospital.

      2. “Would Hamas do this deliberately just to be able to blame it on Israel?”

        Of course. It’s a war.

        You will use what works if you want to win.

        “All is fair in love and war”, so they say.

  22. ‘Investors are also not buying the $500,000 homes. ‘Not too many investors (are) picking up those properties for cash, just because the rent vs. price point does not cash flow’

    So cash flow is back eh Ryan, well it always comes at the worst possible time, doesn’t it?

  23. Global Debt at Record Levels and the Free Lunch Is Over

    https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/global-debt-at-record-levels-and-the-free-lunch-is-over/

    Global debt rose $10 trillion to a record $397 trillion in the first half of 2023, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

    The big increase in debt occurred despite tightening credit conditions, and it is an increasingly worrisome problem because the “free lunch” of artificially low interest rates is over.

    Over the last decade, global debt has increased by a staggering $100 trillion.

    Combined government, household and corporate debt hit 336% of global GDP in the second quarter of this year. The global debt-to-GDP ratio has increased by 2 percentage points this year. Prior to 2023, the global debt-to-GDP ratio had declined seven straight quarters after reaching a record of 360% at the height of the global pandemic government lockdowns.

    About 80% of the new global debt was piled up by developed nations, with Japan, the US, Britain and France leading the way. Among emerging markets, the largest economies saw the biggest debt increases, including China, Brazil and India.

    “As higher rates and higher debt levels push government interest expenses higher, domestic debt strains are set to increase,” the IIF said in a statement.

    Peter Praet served as chief economist at the European Central Bank. He told Reuters that the debt levels are still sustainable, but the outlook is worrying given the fact that spending needs aren’t going to decline.

    You can take many, many countries today, and you will see that we are not far away from a public finances crisis.”

    Praet seems over-optimistic.

    The US government is over $33 trillion in debt. In fact, the Biden administration managed to add half a trillion dollars to the debt in just 20 days. Meanwhile, with rising interest rates, the federal government is now spending as much to make interest payments on the debt as it is for national defense.

    And there is no end to the borrowing and spending in sight.

    More than a decade of interest rates pushed artificially low by central banks worldwide incentivized a tidal wave of borrowing. This was intentional. The thinking was that borrowing and spending would “stimulate” a global economy dragged down first by the Great Recession and then by government-instituted pandemic policies. Nobody ever stopped to think the easy-money gravy train might run out of track.

    But as Fitch Ratings managing director Edward Parker put it, “That free lunch is over and interest payments are now rising faster than debt or revenue.”

    The US economy in particular was built on borrowing and spending. Easy money is its lifeblood. It simply can’t run without artificially low interest rates. The global economy is in much the same boat.

    That puts the Federal Reserve and other central banks between a rock and a hard place. They need to keep interest rates high to counteract the trillions of dollars they created and injected into the global economy as stimulus causing a rapid increase in price inflation. But these higher rates will ultimately break things in the borrow-and-spend economy.

  24. ‘This is absolutely the most concessionary environment I’ve ever seen…Whenever we would previously see some concessions being offered, three months free would pop up every now and then. So now I’m saying it’s a regular thing we see, and that’s somewhat unusual. I expect that to continue into 2024′

    Wa happened to my shortage Joel?

  25. ‘‘The lender usually buys back only when the price at foreclosure didn’t hit their minimum,’ Shams Merchant, an attorney for Jackson Walker LLP based in Fort Worth, speaking generally and not about this specific transaction. ‘So now, the lender can now turn around and sell the property in order to recoup some of their losses on the loan’…The same process seems to have happened for several other recent commercial foreclosures in Houston’

    The process referenced is the lender sets up a shell LLC to buy the crater from themselves when there are no bids. Third party rule in Texas is satisfied, secondary lien holders are fooked.

  26. Funny, I didn’t hear any questions about this on last Sunday’s 60 Minutes Biden interview.

    FBI Form: CCP-Linked Entity Sent Biden Business $3M ‘Thank You’ Gift

    WENDELL HUSEBØ
    17 Oct 2023

    The $3 million the Biden family business received from CCP-linked CEFC China Energy Co. was a “thank you” gift for providing investment opportunities, according to an IRS whistleblower interview of Biden associate Rob Walker recently released by the House Ways and Means Committee.

    The payments, which landed in Walker’s account between 2015 and 2017, were in turn divvied between four Biden family members — Hunter, James, Hallie, and an unidentified “Biden” — House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-KY) revealed in March. The family members collectively received $1.3 million.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/10/17/fbi-form-ccp-linked-entity-sent-biden-business-3m-thank-you-gift/

  27. ‘The market is showing all the signs that it’s lost patience…When you see these bonds now trading below 10 cents on the dollar, it tells you that investors expect a very low recovery, or total liquidation in some cases’

    Ennio Morricone – L’estasi dell’Oro (In Concerto – Venezia 10.11.07)
    SelfDistribuzione
    Dec 20, 2011
    Song taken from “The Good, the Bad, the Ugly”, performed in the magical setting of San Marco’s square in Venice and directed by Ennio Morricone himself.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3IlqY1CbI0

    4 minutes.

  28. ‘said that distressed-debt investing can still work in China’s property sector. He said that after the wave of defaults in 2021, many investors rushed into the sector too soon—and paid too much. ‘They made the first classic mistake in distressed investing: They bought it because it was cheaper than it used to be, not cheap relative to what it was worth. You have to get involved in the sweet spot from both a timing and entry price perspective,’ said Koenigsberger, whose fund manages almost $6 billion of assets’

    The market needs knife catchers Bob. Good luck.

  30. Twilight of the Heroes of Capitalism How Michael Lewis got duped by Sam Bankman-Fried.
    By David Roth
    Photo: Victor Llorente

    Even by the usual standards of derangement that apply, the advertisements on Super Bowl Sunday in 2022 were clearly working through some stuff. The Goddess of Fortune was enlisted to encourage people to gamble on their phones, while Facebook advertised its Metaverse technology through the story of a decommissioned animatronic character rescued from a junkyard that reunites with its friends (?) by way of a VR headset. The solutions on offer in these ads weren’t appealing, exactly, but the concerns they were addressing — wanting to place a bet on a regular-season NBA game without talking to anyone; sensing that the world of the future did not really want you — were clear enough.

    The cryptocurrency exchange FTX’s big ad was entitled “Don’t Miss Out” and featured Larry David brushing off various civilization-altering innovations throughout history before doing it again with crypto. The tagline was “Don’t Be Like Larry.” It was selling “a safe and easy way to get into crypto,” but the rube-running don’t-miss-out stuff was unmistakably both the style and the substance of the ad. Do you really want to miss out on this, whatever it is? Can you afford to?
    …
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10/how-michael-lewis-got-duped-by-sam-bankman-fried.html

  32. Have the bond vigilantes lost faith in the Fed’s resolve to bring inflation back down to its 2% target level?

    1. Financial Times
      US Treasury bonds
      Two-year Treasury yield hits 17-year high after strong retail sales figures
      Global bond sell-off resumes as latest sign of US consumers’ resilience reawakens fears of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates
      Fed chair Jay Powell will speak at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday
      Kate Duguid in New York and Mary McDougall in London 7 hours ago

      Short-term Treasury yields jumped to their highest level in 17 years on Tuesday as stronger-than-expected US retail sales data breathed new life into a global bond rout.

      The two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rates expectations, rose 0.09 percentage points to 5.20 per cent, its highest level since 2006. The selloff came after the latest signs of US consumers’ resilience fanned investors’ fears that the Federal Reserve could lift borrowing costs further in its fight against inflation.

      The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for financial assets around the world, climbed as much as 0.15 percentage points to 4.85 per cent, near a recent 16-year high struck as worries over “higher for longer” interest rates rocked global debt markets.
      …

    2. the Fed’s resolve to bring inflation back down to its 2% target

      The Fed has lied. Inflation is not the price of eggs and gas. It is expansion of the money supply. It is important to understand why they are lying and how this is cover for grand theft. The theft is already accomplished.

      Everyone will be all so happy when price escalation settles down to a level 2x a couple of years ago and still rising. We beat inflation!

      1. “Inflation is not the price of eggs and gas. It is expansion of the money supply.”

        And there it is.

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