For A Long Time It Was Considered Unthinkable That This Would Not Continue For A Long Time
A report from 425 Business in Washington. “Stubbornly high mortgage interest rates, low home inventory, and fewer homes listed for sale contributed to a decline in closed and pending sales of single-family homes and condominiums last month in King and Snohomish counties than a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. In King County, for single-family homes only, the median sales price fell 2.2% last month to $882,997. The priciest Eastside market was Bellevue, west of Interstate 405, with a median of $3.2 million, down 20.7%.”
From NBC 2. “The Allen family had set their sights on their dream home in Southwest Florida. After searching around, they decided during the pandemic to build that home from the ground up. ‘We ended up finding this builder, and we liked the layout of the house,’ Chuck Allen said, ‘and they actually had good promise times to when the house would be completed.’ ‘Unfortunately, there’s only so much you can do, and we thought we’d done what we’re supposed to,’ Shannon said. ‘Just kind of scary because it puts you in a financial predicament that you weren’t expecting to be in at this point in your life. We really just feel held hostage.'”
“The same goes for Paul Mezzanotte, an Air Force veteran who signed a contract with the company in 2021 to build his dream home in Cape Coral. ‘It seems like they’re getting further and further behind,’ Mezzanotte said. Both families tell NBC2 they’re staying in Airbnb and month-to-month short-term rentals while their homes sit empty and unfinished. Attorney Ryan Murphy says issues like this are happening in builds all over SWFL. ‘One of the main disputes right now is delays,’ Murphy said. ‘This guy’s taking too long to build my home. He’s taking too long to replace my roof. He’s taking too long to put in new windows. That’s the main dispute that we have.'”
News Channel 3 in California. “News Channel 3 has learned new details following a shooting on Halloween night that involved a home on Flora Avenue and Cholla Drive in Desert Hot Springs. The home was, at the time, a licensed vacation rental with Airbnb. Police said no injuries have been reported, but the home was damaged. Community members, including Councilmember Russell Betts, have raised concerns about safety when it comes to vacation rentals, as well as calls for tighter regulations on these properties. ‘I’d like to see some type of lottery system as other cities have done to reduce the number of homes in the already saturated neighborhoods,’ according to Councilmember Betts.”
The Mercury News in California. “The bankruptcy filing by WeWork, the co-working company once valued at $47 billion with locations across the Bay Area, could potentially jolt parts of the region’s office market — especially if it terminates leases as it seeks to reorganize its feeble finances. WeWork still has 17 locations in the Bay Area, according to its website. They include seven sites in San Francisco, two locations in downtown San Jose, two sites in downtown Oakland, two locations in San Mateo, and single sites in Berkeley, Palo Alto, San Ramon and Mill Valley. ‘This business model works in a steady office market or one that is improving,’ said Dave Sandlin, an executive vice president with Colliers, a San Jose-based commercial real estate company. ‘It just doesn’t work when you have a declining office market.'”
The Los Angeles Times. “In 2022, 818,000 Californians left for other states, while 476,000 moved in, resulting in a total domestic loss of 342,000 to the Golden State, according to newly released census data. But some states have been taking in more of California’s former residents than others, with Texas leading in that category. In 41 U.S. states, more people arrived from California than moved to California last year, according to the data. Marie Bailey, 44, moved from El Segundo to a Dallas-Fort Worth suburb in 2017. She and her husband built a home for $750,000, while a ‘tiny fixer upper’ in El Segundo would’ve cost upward of $1 million.”
“The couple quickly figured out that they could capitalize on the niche in the real estate market for California migrants to Texas. For years, Bailey has administered the Facebook group where Jayne Jordan and 45,000 others swap recommendations on how to make the move. She runs a real estate firm that places Californians all over the state. Bailey’s husband, who was previously employed by the UCLA medical system, ‘wouldn’t even talk about his politics because he was afraid of losing his job,’ she said. ‘Nowhere is perfect,’ Bailey said, ‘but we fit in a lot better here.'”
Bisnow New York. “Capital One is reportedly looking to offload millions in loans attached to New York City real estate. The majority of the debt is nonperforming and tied to office buildings. Banks almost doubled their direct lending to landlords to $2.2T during a period of historically low interest rates in the seven years before 2022. But now, loans are increasingly challenged, and banks are expected to continue to withdraw from the market. For the loans still on banks’ books, more and more are being forced to write down their assets’ values. New York Community Bank reported a 2,600% increase in nonperforming loans on its books in the third quarter, attributed to loan defaults tied to office buildings in Syracuse and Manhattan.”
The Wall Street Journal. “The sale of Signature Bank’s $33 billion in commercial-property loans and other assets is expected to attract bids as much as 40% below face value, offering new evidence of how much property prices have eroded. Regulators closed Signature Bank in March after a run on its deposits, marking the fourth-largest bank failure in U.S. history. Now, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is auctioning off thousands of Signature loans backed by apartment buildings and other commercial properties primarily in the New York region. Just how far values have fallen on these properties is difficult to pinpoint, but at some buildings where all apartments are regulated, values have fallen as much as 70%, according to the Community Housing Improvement Program, a landlord trade group that cited building-sales data and discussions with brokers.”
Western Investor in Canada. “Fewer Vancouver-area homes fall into foreclosure because most troubled mortgage holders have been able the sell the property quickly at prices often at or above what the mortgage is worth, explained Amar Shan of Saba Realty Ltd., Vancouver, a specialist in B.C. foreclosures. Shan said it is not a coincidence that the biggest discounts began after mid-October, as higher interest rates began to bite into housing sales. Prior to mid-October, Shan said, typical discounts this year from a property’s assessed value were from 5 per cent to 15 per cent, with some selling for even higher than the asking price from the foreclosure trustee. However, discounts of 20 per cent to 34 per cent are now being seen, he noted.”
“‘Prior to that time, the market psychology was relatively strong. Investors would get a sale agreed at a low price, but then the sale would be challenged in court by other bidders and the price would be bid up considerably,’ he told Western Investor. ‘Foreclosure trustees knew this, and it was part of the reason they would accept very low offers. However, after mid-October, investors were moving more cautiously, so accepted offers didn’t get challenged in court, and the sales were at much lower prices.'”
“Recent sales examples from Saba Realty include a seven-bedroom, 9,260-square-foot mini-mansion at 20133 2nd Avenue, Langley. Assessed at $4.79 million and offered under a court-ordered sale at $3,250,000, it sold November 2 for $3,150,000, a 34 per cent discount from its assessed value. In Mission, a six-bedroom house of 4,874 square feet sold August 8 for $1,218,088, which was slightly above the foreclosed list price but $247,000 – or 17 per cent – below its original purchase price. Strata examples include a foreclosed one-bedroom condo in the Koret Lofts at 55 E Cordova Street in Vancouver’s Gastown. Assessed at $1.03 million and listed at $702,700, it sold October 19 for $699,900, 32 per cent below the BC Assessment value. In North Vancouver, a new four-bedroom, 2,044-square-foot townhouse at 752 East Third Street in Moodyville, assessed at $1.96 million, sold under foreclosure on October 23 for 25 per cent less, at $1,470,999.”
The Romford Recorder in the UK. “A property developer has called a Rainham regeneration scheme an ‘utter shambles,’ saying he cannot afford to sell the flats he’s building as he would lose so much money. Kuldeep Singh was given planning permission for 60 flats in New Road as part of what was supposed to be a major regeneration project, built around a new Beam Park railway station. But with the station’s future in doubt and the property market having declined after last year’s mini-budget, Kuldeep said he and other developers are now lumbered with flats nobody will buy. ‘If the climate stays the same, we won’t be able to afford to sell any of them,’ he said. ‘There’s many blocks that are going up for sale now and they’re not selling. The whole regeneration hinged around the train station and the CPOs (compulsory purchase orders). The whole thing just crashed. It’s a complete and utter shambles.'”
From China Daily. “Germany’s growing economic problems have been highlighted by the halting of construction of what would have been one of the country’s tallest buildings, in the political heartland of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In 2018, when Scholz was mayor of the northern city of Hamburg, in whose crucial port facilities Chinese shipping company Cosco has a significant investment, he welcomed the unveiling of the design for the 64-story, 245-meter Elbtower. But work has stopped after Austrian property company Signa fell behind in payments to its builder, Lupp.”
“In September, Christoph Straube, CEO of property development company W&L AG, told Forbes magazine that after a decade of rising property prices in Germany, ‘for a long time it was considered unthinkable that this would not continue for a long time,’ until in July 2022, the European Central Bank made the first of what turned out to be 10 interest rate rises over the next 14 months.”
ABC News in Australia. “Lisa Mammone has her children front of mind in every decision she makes — and having to say ‘no’ to their wants is one of the hardest things she has to do. The 39-year-old and her husband, Vinnie Mammon, have never really had to do without. In 2021, the couple remortgaged their Mildura home in order to complete renovations, and increased their loan by an extra $10,000 in annual repayments. They were one of thousands of Australian families who did not foresee 13 interest rate rises in 18 months. Their yearly repayments have risen by an additional $10,000 since the first hike in May 2022.”
“They were prepared to pay $490 per week – up from $280 before they refinanced – in order to complete their renovations, but now they will be paying an unaffordable $660 per week. Ms Mammone said her family dined at her in-laws’ house frequently in order to cut down costs. ‘Every hike we get, it goes up anywhere between about $30 or $40,’ she said. Today the Reserve Bank of Australia increased the cash rate to 4.35 per cent — the highest rate in more than a decade.”
“‘It hurts me, because sometimes the kids are like, ‘Can we go and get such-and-such today?’ or ‘Can we go and do this tonight?’ Ms Mammone said. ‘I have to say ‘No, we don’t have enough money. Sorry, you must wait until next payday. That’s the most horrible thing that I’ve ever had to say to my kids, and I hate it.'”
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‘If the climate stays the same, we won’t be able to afford to sell any of them,’ he said. ‘There’s many blocks that are going up for sale now and they’re not selling. The whole regeneration hinged around the train station and the CPOs (compulsory purchase orders). The whole thing just crashed. It’s a complete and utter shambles’
Wa happened to my shortage Kuldeep?
‘Prior to mid-October, Shan said, typical discounts this year from a property’s assessed value were from 5 per cent to 15 per cent, with some selling for even higher than the asking price from the foreclosure trustee. However, discounts of 20 per cent to 34 per cent are now being seen, he noted’
Avalanche incoming igloo dwellers.
‘This business model works in a steady office market or one that is improving…It just doesn’t work when you have a declining office market’
They never turned a profit Dave, not even one penny.
The company didn’t, but Adam certainly did.
The business model for the past 10-12 years was cheap credit driving up asset prices. Cashout refis then sell to the next FOMO buyer. The cheap credit is gone and the ponzi scheme is next. Most investors didn’t care about positive cash flow.
‘Ms Mammone said her family dined at her in-laws’ house frequently in order to cut down costs’
Ah-HA Lisa, you and those rug rats are still sticking food in yer pie holes. I doubt you have what it take to be a winnah!
‘Bailey’s husband, who was previously employed by the UCLA medical system, ‘wouldn’t even talk about his politics because he was afraid of losing his job’
What a sh$thole.
“What a sh$thole.”
Forget it, Ben. It’s California.
I’m an old fashioned landlord , still use paper reciepts…Just had a spanish lady alter one of them , very carefully , same ink and all…..would have been out a good bit of $$$$ if it wasn’t the numbers on the upper right hand side didn’t match…. everyone gets the carbon copies from here on out….
“…The bankruptcy filing by WeWork, the co-working company once valued at $47 billion…”
$47 billion will buy a whole lot of desks, staplers and coffee machines.
What exactly were these people [shareholders / Softbank*] thinking?
* Financial Times called WeWork “one of the worst venture capital investments in history” [1]
The folks at Softbank apparently didn’t bother reading the HBB. Over five years ago, pre-pandemic, the HBB and its readers warned that the WeWork Real Estate / financial model made absolutely no sense.
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/020d78ab-c487-4586-a636-eced0368f531
The priciest Eastside market was Bellevue, west of Interstate 405, with a median of $3.2 million, down 20.7%.”
Is that a lot?
Bailey’s husband, who was previously employed by the UCLA medical system, ‘wouldn’t even talk about his politics because he was afraid of losing his job
Typical mentality, ruin a place, (CA) move to another place, be too dumb to realize what ruined the prior place, then vote the same way as before and ruin said new place.
By the way, Philadelphia just elected a new Mayor. Any guesses why Philadelphia is so screwed? My best guess is that the whole entire problem in Phillie is due to the republican mayor that was there in 1952.
But I could be wrong. To be fair, Philadelphia did change things up a bit and voted for the first female mayor. Hopefully it works out better for them that Lightfoot did in Chicago
Typical mentality, ruin a place, (CA) move to another place, be too dumb to realize what ruined the prior place, then vote the same way as before and ruin said new place.
I think he was conservative.
Really, then why was he afraid to discuss politics?
Did I misunderstand something?
I understood that he was afraid to discuss his politics in California.
My bad.
I see what both of you are saying
To be honest, I think it’s hazardous to be known as a conservative in Corporate America, regardless of location.
“…it’s hazardous to be known as a conservative in Corporate America…”
Same goes in the federal government especially the Department of the Interior, which was among several agencies selected for a progressive hiring binge.
‘in Germany, ‘for a long time it was considered unthinkable that this would not continue for a long time’
The self licking ice cream cone appears again.
LL Flooring Holdings Inc. the flooring retailer formerly called Lumber Liquidators, posted a net loss of $35.9 million, or $1.25 a share, for the third quarter, wider than the loss of $3.8 million, or 13 cents a share, posted in the year-earlier period. Chief Executive Charles Tyson cited low consumer confidence, inflation, an elevated interest and mortgage rate environment and lower existing home sales as factors weighing on the company’s performance.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/ll-flooring-s-q3-loss-is-wider-than-expected-in-weak-housing-market/ar-AA1jAeF3
US Debt Interest Bill Rockets Past a Cool $1 Trillion a Year
US Treasuries may face renewed selling pressure into the new year if one measure of the nation’s swelling debt repayment bill is any guide. Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month, Bloomberg analysis shows. That projected amount has doubled in the past 19 months from the equivalent figure forecast around the time.
“There will be further increases to Treasury coupon auctions and T-bills outstanding going forward,” Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman wrote in a research note. “Besides deficits of over $2 trillion in the foreseeable future, climbing maturities following the increase of issuance from March 2020 will also need to be refinanced.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-debt-bill-rockets-past-065031377.html
‘climbing maturities following the increase of issuance from March 2020 will also need to be refinanced’
Aka minor respiratory illness.
Soon the can will become too heavy to kick anymore.
“….That projected amount has *doubled* in the past 19 months from the equivalent figure forecast around the time…”
A few double double doubles and we are looking at numbers that start to climb to infinity.
No worries. Move along. Nothing to see here.
The prelude to hyperinflation.
They need a collapse first to have the excuse to hyperinflate
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
The Tell
Another Wall Street strategist says last week’s U.S. stock-market rally will soon fizzle. Here’s why.
Published: Nov. 7, 2023 at 10:11 a.m. ET
By Joseph Adinolfi
The rally in U.S. stocks likely won’t last. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Another Wall Street strategist is warning investors that last week’s U.S. stock-market advance likely won’t last.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM Chief Market Strategist Marko Kolanovic said in a note to clients shared with MarketWatch late Monday that stocks are likely headed lower in the fourth quarter as the market faces a plethora of challenges, including a Federal Reserve that would likely refuse to cut interest rates in the face of a slowing economy.
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-wall-street-strategist-says-last-weeks-u-s-stock-market-rally-will-soon-fizzle-heres-why-57a90d32
This winter, New York won’t be using electric snow plows. Failure of vehicle tests has caused the local snow removal company to revert to diesel-powered vehicles.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/new-york-abandons-electric-snow-plows/ar-AA1jyazz
Americans notched the biggest annual increase in credit card debt on record last quarter
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-notched-biggest-annual-increase-043011705.html
New York Fed economists said Tuesday US credit card balances grew $48 billion in the third quarter.
An an annual basis, balances jumped by $154 billion, the highest increase on record.
The third quarter marked the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year increases.
Economists at the New York Federal Reserve said Tuesday Americans’ credit card balances grew by $48 billion in the third quarter, or about 4.7%, with the total amount reaching $1.08 trillion.
The quarterly gain marked the eighth consecutive three-month stretch of annual increases. At $154 billion, the nominal year-over-year increase in the quarter was the largest reading since data began in 1999, the economists said.
Total household debt grew $228 billion over the three month stretch, with credit cards and student loans accounting for a significant portion. Credit card debt hit $1 trillion for the first time ever this past summer.
“The increase in balances is consistent with strong nominal spending and real GDP growth over the same time frame,” Fed researchers wrote in an accompanying blog post published with the data. “But credit card delinquencies continue to rise from their historical lows seen during the pandemic and have now surpassed pre-pandemic levels.”
Aggregate delinquency rates jumped in the third quarter, according to the Fed economists.
As of September, 3% of outstanding debt had reached some stage of delinquency, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the prior quarter, though down 1.7 percentage points from the fourth quarter in 2019, the stretch before the pandemic.
Close to 9.5% of credit card balances were more than 90 days delinquent last quarter, up from 8% in the second quarter and 7.6% during the third quarter of last year.
(A chart appears here …)
The New York Fed economists also reported that consumers with higher total balances are more likely to transition to delinquency, and that those with balances over $20,000 have the highest transition rate since the start of last year.
Borrowers with balances below $5,000, meanwhile, which were about 68% of all borrowers last quarter, are hovering near delinquency transition rates similar to pre-pandemic levels.
“Delinquency rates on most credit product types have been rising from historic lows since the middle of 2021,” researchers wrote. “The transition rate into delinquency remains below the pre-pandemic level for mortgages, which comprise the largest share of household debt, but auto loan and credit card delinquencies have surpassed pre-pandemic levels and continue to rise.”
Yellen the Felon said $1 trillion in credit card debt was the sign of a strong consumer.
(NOTE: This post is in no way related to housing.)
The U.S. Army Gets Desperate, Puts White Men Back In Its Ads
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-11-08/us-army-gets-desperate-puts-white-men-back-its-ads
Woke Ads Weren’t Filling The Ranks
Readers may recall some of the U.S. Army’s woke ads in recent years, focusing on diversity, such as this one about a lady soldier who was raised by two lesbians.
Apparently, those ads weren’t filling the ranks, so the U.S. Army came out with a new ad featuring a white man. You can see it embedded in the Army’s X post below.
(You will need to click on the link to see the rest of the article.)
(An amusing response to the Army’s ad …)
The US Army’s new recruitment ad is so cynical. After 15 years of relentless progessive brainwashing and doing a literal “stand down” to root out “extremists” ( ie white conservatives), they are now facing an existential recruiting crisis and must return again to seducing the children of said “extremists” into fighting for their country.
A country that no longer exists.
From the responses, young white guys see right through the latest ads and are taking a hard pass on joining a “woke” military where they’ll be maligned and marginalized.
And cannon fodder.
Meanwhile, Gen-Z is getting worried that the draft might return. I also doubt the draft boards will be generously handing out 4F classifications for all the fat kids.
If they restart the draft, watch how quickly millions of white guys self-disqualify by joining “hate groups.”
“…generously handing out 4F classifications for all the fat kids.”
More than 80% of fresh enlistees are disqualified to enter boot camp due to lack of strength.
There is talk of “fat camps” for those types of draftees. Fresh meat will be needed if WW3 breaks out.
Imagine being a smug little prog, only to get a letter from Joetato telling you that you have been drafted,
The responses are comedy gold, and let the perfumed princes at the Pentagon know that they better not count on drafting white males to fight the next neocon war.
“drafting white males”
We’ll be drafting our own for the coming war against globalists.
No self-respecting American white male will ever fight and die for Israel or Ukraine.
MarketWatch
Housing affordability hits a 39-year low. ‘It’s fair to expect prices to weaken,’ expert says.
Last Updated: Nov. 7, 2023 at 10:47 a.m. ET
First Published: Nov. 6, 2023 at 3:19 p.m. ET
By Aarthi Swaminathan
The monthly principal and interest payment on a median-priced house just surpassed $2,500 for the first time, a new record.
Returning the housing market to more affordable levels would require one of three things, according to a new report from Intercontinental Exchange: Either the 30-year mortgage rate needs to fall by 4.4 percentage points, the median household income needs to rise by 62%, or home prices need to fall by 38%.
It’s an unwelcome blast from the past — home buyers are facing the most unaffordable housing market since the 1980s, according to a new report.
With mortgage rates at 23-year highs, the monthly principal and interest payment on a median-priced home hit a record high in October. That puts the U.S. housing market at its least affordable since 1984, according to a report by Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE.
The principal and interest payment on a mortgage, which excludes taxes, insurance, and homeowners association fees, surpassed $2,500 in October for the first time since 1975, when the company began tracking the data. Compared with the prior month, the payment went up by $144.
The typical monthly P&I payment is up 94% over the last two years, rising by $1,240. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was averaging 7.76% as of Nov. 2, according to Freddie Mac.
For the typical household, the principal and interest payment now amounts to roughly 41% of their income. That’s a significant shift from the last 35 years, when the share of income households needed to cover their P&I payment was less than 25% on average, ICE added.
“Affordability pressure is not coming from interest rates alone, though,” Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at ICE, said in a statement.
He added, “The last time affordability was this bad in the 80s, rates were in the double digits and the average home was about 3.5 times median income, in stark contrast to today’s price-to-income ratio of nearly 6-to-1.”
Back in October 1984, the 30-year mortgage rate was averaging at 14%, according to Freddie Mac data. That was during a period of high rates that’s sometimes referred to the “Volcker era,” when Paul Volcker, chairman of the Federal Reserve between Aug. 6, 1979 and Aug. 11, 1987, helped to halt inflation in the 1980s by raising real interest rates, despite protests from his critics.
At the time, baby boomers had hit their prime home-buying years, purchasing homes with mortgage rates over 15%, and then opting to refinance in the years following as rates consistently fell until the Fed hit the brakes once again and raised rates in June 2022.
Walden noted that with rates over 7.5% and affordability hitting a 39-year low, “it’s fair to expect prices to weaken later in 2023.”
Returning the housing market to more affordable levels would require one of three things, ICE said: Either the 30-year mortgage rate needs to fall by 4.4 percentage points, the median household income needs to rise by 62%, or home prices need to fall by 38%.
But “none of which are likely to fully solve today’s challenges alone, and none of which tend to move independently of one another,” the report stated.
Home prices cooling in most markets
Although home prices grew in September, the latest month for which there is data, ICE said it expects a slowdown in the months ahead.
In September, home prices rose 4.3% compared with the year before. But prices are showing signs of slowing, as they showed the weakest monthly gain since January, at 0.39%. Home prices cooled in 49 of the 50 largest U.S. markets, ICE said, with Cleveland being the sole exception.
Prices fell the most in Austin and New Orleans, by 0.31% and 0.14% respectively.
The most affordable real-estate market was Cleveland, the company noted, where the monthly P&I payment was 25.5% of a household’s income. Oklahoma City and Pittsburgh followed in second and third place.
The least affordable market was Los Angeles, where the payment would eat up 76.5% of a household’s income. San Diego and San Jose followed in second and third place.
…
“Home prices cooled in 49 of the 50 largest U.S. markets, ICE said, with Cleveland being the sole exception.”
CR8R
“Either the 30-year mortgage rate needs to fall by 4.4 percentage points, the median household income needs to rise by 62%, or home prices need to fall by 38%.”
So of these which is the most likely? Easy answer, that one.
Also, saw a recent headline stating “mortgage rates plunge!” After reading the article the stated “plunge” amounted to .3%, with the 30 yr going from 7.8 to 7.5. That’s a long way from the 4.4% drop needed. Home prices will fall…..a lot.
(Still another non-housing related post. This one, I believe, may reflect a long overdue sea-change regarding nuclear energy policies. Stay tuned.)
Last nuclear power plant in California may run for another 20 years. Here’s what changed
https://www.yahoo.com/news/last-nuclear-power-plant-california-190144143.html
(Snip, snip, snip …)
PG&E has filed its relicensing application to keep California’s last nuclear power plant running 20 years beyond its scheduled closure date.
The application was submitted to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Tuesday morning and comes a year and two months after Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 846 to allow extended operations at the 2,200-megawatt Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant in coastal San Luis Obispo County.
(Govenor Newsome, of all people. Amazing.)
PG&E had planned to shut town the plant’s two reactors in 2024 and 2025.
The bill came after the state failed to procure enough clean electricity to replace the nuclear power plant before it was slated to shut down in the coming years. Diablo Canyon, which provides about 9% of the state’s electricity supply, has since become California’s best solution to ensuring the state has a reliable energy grid as electricity demand rises in the face of climate change, electrification and other factors.
Additionally, SB 846 allocated $1.4 billion for a forgivable loan from the state to PG&E to help fund the continued operations of the power plant. The U.S. Department of Energy then granted PG&E $1.1 billion in November 2022 to help keep the power plant running, which PG&E has said it’ll use to pay back the state’s loan and lower costs to ratepayers.
(Now for a surprise! [not])
The California Energy Commission has blamed development delays and supply chain constraints in the solar, wind and energy storage markets for the failure to replace the 2,200-megawatt power plant before 2025.
Is it too late to reopen San Onofre?
Drove by San O recently.
Looks fairly intact.
Never understood why it was shut down in the first place.
After all, how are we going to charge all those EV’s?
“Diablo Canyon, which provides about 9% of the state’s electricity supply, has since become California’s best solution to ensuring the state has a reliable energy grid as electricity demand rises in the face of climate change, electrification and other factors.”
The California water project is by far the largest consumer of electricity that is used to pump water to farms, industries and municipalities primarily in the southern half of the state.
(I ran across this …)
Nuclear Power Is Making a Comeback: What Will It Take to See Meaningful Growth?
https://www.powermag.com/nuclear-power-is-making-a-comeback-what-will-it-take-to-see-meaningful-growth/#:~:text=by%20Contributed%20Content-,Nuclear%20Power%20Is%20Making%20a%20Comeback%3A%20What%20Will%20It%20Take,milestone%20and%20one%20worth%20celebrating.
There are many reasons for the nuclear power industry to feel optimistic about the future. For example, the entry of Vogtle Unit 3 into commercial operation on July 31 was a significant milestone and one worth celebrating. Meanwhile, Vogtle Unit 4 is in the final stages of construction and is expected to enter service by the first quarter of 2024. The completion of these units offers many lessons that the industry can use going forward.
SMR and Microreactor Projects Abound
Gigawatt-scale nuclear plants aren’t the only options available today, however. Small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors are quickly gaining momentum.
Earlier this year, Wilmington, North Carolina–headquartered GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH), Ontario Power Generation (OPG), SNC-Lavalin, and Aecon announced they had signed a contract for the deployment of a BWRX-300 SMR at OPG’s Darlington New Nuclear Project site. That marked the first commercial contract for a grid-scale SMR in North America.
In the U.S., the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is also planning and conducting preliminary licensing work for the potential deployment of a BWRX-300 unit. This would be the first of what TVA has said could be as many as 20 SMRs it hopes to add to its fleet. Several other companies around the world are also seriously considering deployment of BWRX-300 technology.
Yet, GEH isn’t the only SMR manufacturer making news. NuScale Power announced in August that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accepted its Standard Design Approval (SDA) application for formal review. The NRC has docketed the application for NuScale’s VOYGR-6 plant design featuring an uprated 77-MWe SMR, which the company says “will support capacity requirements for a wider range of customers.” The NRC issued an SDA for NuScale’s 50-MWe design in 2020, and design certification this year, making it the first and only SMR to achieve either milestone.
There’s also a lot of interest in microreactors. On Aug. 31, the Defense Logistics Agency Energy, on behalf of the U.S. Air Force and the Department of Defense (DOD), announced that it had selected Oklo as the pending contractor awardee to site a microreactor at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. A few months earlier, Oklo announced an agreement to deploy two of its reactors in southern Ohio. Oklo also expects to build a unit on a site at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The company obtained a site use permit for that unit in 2019.
The MARVEL microreactor, which stands for Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation, is another project in full swing at INL. It’s expected to begin operation by the end of 2024. MARVEL will be used to develop regulatory approval processes, test microreactor applications, evaluate systems for remote monitoring, and develop autonomous control technologies, among other things.
INL also expects to receive delivery of the Project Pele prototype reactor from BWX Technologies by the end of next year. Project Pele will demonstrate “a transportable microreactor that can provide a resilient power source” to the DOD for a variety of operational needs that have historically relied on fossil fuel deliveries and extensive supply lines.
Challenges Persist
Yet, for all the positive developments, there are still plenty of difficulties. “The U.S. nuclear power industry faces several significant challenges that affect its ability to thrive,” said Jay Jiang Yu, founder and chairman of NANO Nuclear Energy Inc.—another emerging microreactor technology company based in New York City. “One of the primary challenges for the U.S. nuclear power industry is economic competitiveness. Nuclear power plants require substantial upfront capital investment, and the costs of construction, operation, and maintenance can be high. Cheap and abundant natural gas, along with the growth of renewable energy sources, has created tough competition for nuclear power,” Yu said.
Because there have been few nuclear construction projects in the U.S. since the early 1990s, Yu said the country has been left with a relatively small group of experienced workers. “The lack of new projects can hinder technological advancements and workforce development in the industry,” he said. “The nuclear industry faces a potential shortage of skilled workers, including operators, engineers, and technicians. Ensuring a well-trained workforce for the future is crucial.”
Yu suggested long-term storage and disposal of nuclear waste, the protracted and costly licensing process, and project financing difficulties are other challenges that must be addressed. He also noted that negative public perceptions about nuclear energy could hinder growth. However, those views have been changing in recent years.
In a survey of more than 10,000 Americans conducted by the Pew Research Center from May 30 to June 4 this year, a majority of the respondents (57%) said they favor more nuclear power plants to generate electricity in the country, up from 43% who said that in 2020. While Republican/Republican-leaning respondents were more likely to support nuclear power (67%) than their Democrat/Democrat-leaning counterparts (50%), support among both groups was up similarly (about 13%–14%) compared to the 2020 survey. Notably, men were far more likely than women to favor more nuclear power plants (71% vs. 44%), according to the survey.
James Walker, CEO of NANO Nuclear, said the U.S. government could do many things to encourage growth in the nuclear industry. Streamlining the regulatory process, providing long-term policy support, and addressing the nuclear waste management issue were at the top of his list. Among other things, he said collaborating more on an international level, fostering greater public-private partnerships, and implementing market reforms that value the attributes of nuclear power would also be beneficial to the industry.
Psychosis, Panic Attacks, Hallucinations: Bizarre Psychiatric Cases Among the COVID Vaccinated
Beginning in late 2020 with the COVID vaccine rollout, some doctors have seen an increase in unusual psychiatric illnesses.
Dr. Patrick William Slater is a 60-year-old neurotologist. A few years ago, he had a full-time medical practice in Austin and enjoyed hunting and fishing in the mountains during his downtime.
Then, in October 2021, Dr. Slater came down with cerebellar ataxia, a disease affecting movement. He couldn’t eat or go to the bathroom without help.
While his ataxia could be managed using drugs, it wasn’t always effective against his biggest complaint: unprecedented panic attacks.
Almost every night, Dr. Slater would experience panic attacks that left him in “abject terror.” He thought about killing himself many times, he told The Epoch Times.
No one could provide a satisfactory answer about why he had developed these symptoms. Nothing abnormal showed up on his laboratory reports, and his neurologists and psychiatrists dismissed his symptoms as anxiety.
But Dr. Slater is convinced that the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines are the culprit.
Dr. Slater was suspicious when the symptoms first appeared within about two weeks of getting the second dose of the COVID shot. The second—and worse—wave of career-ending symptoms had coincided with his third shot. After taking the booster, “there was no question in my mind,” Dr. Slater said.
Beginning in late 2020 with the COVID vaccine rollout, some doctors have seen an increase in unusual psychiatric illnesses.
Psychiatrist Dr. Amanda McDonald noticed a wave of psychiatric destabilization among her stable patients. They experienced flare-ups, often manifesting with worsened or new psychiatric symptoms.
“I couldn’t figure out why,” Dr. McDonald told The Epoch Times. “My patients typically stay stable.” But many stable patients were suddenly arriving at her office with insomnia, depression, and anxiety “without any sort of rhyme or reason.” She increased some patients’ medication doses or added new drugs to their regimen, but it had little effect.
A recurring pattern Dr. McDonald sees is atypical panic attacks, which can feel like having a heart attack. Brought on with no apparent trigger, symptoms typically escalate as the evening progresses and climax at night. A typical panic attack can occur anytime throughout the day but often has triggers, and it is easy to treat if patients can avoid these triggers.
After spending over a year following her patients, Dr. McDonald realized that COVID-19 vaccines may be linked to their psychiatric illnesses.
“I already had an existing patient population when the pandemic hit that I knew very well. What I saw was manifestations in that patient population,” Dr. McDonald added.
Dr. Diane Counce, neurologist and neuroradiologist, observed an increase in severe anxiety and worsened mood.
“People also talk about how their personality has changed,” she told The Epoch Times. In cases where a family member has brought in a patient, “[The family] will say, ‘they’re just different.’”
Nurse practitioner Scott Marsland, who has treated hundreds of long-COVID and vaccine-injured patients at the Leading Edge Clinic, added that debilitating anxiety, depression, and insomnia are among the most common symptoms he has seen. However, some patients have also developed hallucinations and suicidality.
Unlike myocarditis, no conclusive proof exists that COVID-19 vaccinations cause psychiatric illness. A multitude of studies, however, have linked COVID-19 vaccines with psychiatric symptoms, including depression, anxiety, panic attacks, psychosis, and suicidality.
Vaccine-injured people, especially those who took the vaccine out of goodwill, may experience both a breakdown of their worldview and of themselves, said Dr. Ciora.
He uses the iconic scene from the movie “The Matrix” as an analogy.
Neo, the main character, takes a red pill and discovers that he has been living in a machine-generated reality for his entire life. He cannot accept this reality, and vomits in disbelief.
For the vaccine-injured, the people they once trusted—health officials and government leaders—now dismiss their lived realities.
“If everyone says you’re wrong while telling you things you know to be false, you don’t know what to trust,” Dr. Ciora said.
And, you don’t know what’s reality and what’s not, he added.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/psychosis-panic-attacks-hallucinations-bizarre-psychiatric-cases-among-the-covid-vaccinated-5500128
Funny how lay people could figure out something was rotten in Denmark concerning the jab, but all these physicians could not until it was too late.
It’s mind blowing that physicians would willing roll up their sleeves for an experimental jab that uses a new and unproven technology. When I first read how the soon to arrive jabs worked I was horrified and decided right then that there was no way I would allow that stuff to be injected into my body.
same
I recall that article boasting that the jab would turn our bodies into “vaccine factories”. Nevermind that our cells were being reprogrammed into growing the spike protein. My first thought was “Do we have any idea of the long term ramifications of this?” Of course now we are hearing about the rise of “turbo cancers”. Nah, it’s just a coincidence, it can’t possibly be because of the jab. The CDC and the FDA say it’s unpossible.
all these physicians could not
There is a difference between knowledge and belief. Once ordained, most people follow doctrine handed down rather than try to reason all the time. Falling out of line has serious consequences as well.
Oncologist – “Cause Unknown” is a cover up of a crime (Mass murder)
“The number one cause of death in Alberta in 2021 was ’cause unknown,’ and that’s never happened before,” lamented @MakisMD. “We had 3,400 Albertans die of ’cause unknown.’ And again, it’s because the proper autopsies are not being done. The pathologists are aware of it. The health authorities are aware of it. They’re discouraging autopsies from being done.”
https://www.bitchute.com/video/iYpQsuyl8ZPH/
42 seconds.
From my son’s developmental-behavioral pediatrician and high school classmate when recently discussing masks: “Doctors are risk-averse and rule-followers.”
100% safe and effective.
Is your city hoping to solve the climate crisis by encouraging lazy pedestrians to ride around on electronic motor scooters?
Politics
Last remaining scooter company pulls out of San Diego, as city proposes softening tough rules
Bird scooters lined up in downtown San Diego
(Photo by K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
(The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Bird is the last of four operators to stop operating in the city. Under a city proposal intended to lure them back, a controversial sidewalk speed-throttling rule could be softened.
By David Garrick
Nov. 8, 2023 5 AM PT
SAN DIEGO —
The last scooter company willing to comply with San Diego’s strict rules ceased operations in the city last weekend, just as officials prepared to propose softening some key regulations including on sidewalk speed-throttling.
The departure of Bird leaves the city with no scooter operators, just over a year after it adopted rules that limit scooter speeds on sidewalks to 3 mph and prohibit large and disorderly clusters of scooters.
That leaves San Diego without a convenient option for getting around that city officials say is crucial to fighting climate change and reducing congestion as neighborhoods become more densely populated.
It also leaves San Diego with 950 scooter corrals across the city that now serve no function, and with ongoing contracts with a scooter enforcement company and a scooter data analytics company that have nothing to enforce or analyze.
…
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2023-11-08/san-diegos-last-scooter-company-ceases-operations-prompting-city-to-propose-softer-rules
“…and with ongoing contracts with a scooter enforcement company and a scooter data analytics company that have nothing to enforce or analyze.”
LMFAO! What a bunch of idiots.
Any thoughts on why Wall Street stocks just started to CR8R?
Did you get caught in yet another bull trap?
The Wall Street Journal
Bond Selloff at Another China Property Giant Spurs Authorities to Action
Shenzhen government officials say they will support China Vanke after liquidity concerns grow
By Cao Li and Rebecca Feng
Updated Nov. 7, 2023 4:56 am ET
A China Vanke construction site in Nanjing. Photo: Cfoto/Zuma Press
China’s housing slump is shaking the foundation of another giant property developer—and the government is trying to prevent the problems from spiraling out of control.
China Vanke, one of the oldest and largest real-estate companies in the country, is the latest Chinese developer to fall victim to a market selloff that has made investors worry about its liquidity. Prices of some of Vanke’s U.S. dollar bonds tumbled to distressed levels after rival Country Garden failed to pay its offshore debt in mid-October. Vanke’s Hong Kong-listed shares have also lost close to half their market value this year.
…
From the Colorado Sun:
Tax relief drawing board. What a joke. Voters could see through the ruse: you’ll get a property tax reduction but you’ll give up most of your TABOR refund. And when you did the math, you realized that you would end up worse off.
How about just lowering property taxes? They might as well, TABOR will force the government to refund most of those increases.
In other good news:
Groceries have been taxed in Loveland as long as I can remember. I’m sure this is a bucket of ice cold water at city hall, which undoubtedly will cut services and raise fees (such as trash collection) to make up for the lost funds.
Coloradans are an odd bunch. On one had they like their weed and enshrine “murder muh baby” as the greatest civil right. But they are also stingy and hate paying taxes. Voters were hoodwinked a few years ago into repealing the Gallagher amendment, and were later shocked when their property taxes went up. I think they still remember that, and understood that the Dems in Dumver were trying to pull another fast one.
One thing the Dems can still do is rig how the TABOR refunds are paid out. In the past it was tiered by income: the more income (hence the more taxes you paid) the bigger the refund. But that isn’t stipulated in the law, so the Dems are going to make the refunds the same for everyone, in other words, they are redistributing the refunds.
Of course it is possible that as the economy tanks there might not be any TABOR refunds at all. That’s what happened during and after the Great Recession, there was no TABOR surplus and hence no refund.
Risk of ‘Forced Sales’ Rising as Canadians turn to Alternative Mortgages
Mark Mitchell – Mortgage Broker London Ontario
1 hour ago.
There is a growing risk of ‘forced home sales’ as Canadians increasingly turn to alternative mortgages in refinance their homes, according to a new report coming from Capital Economics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7ZeUwaxHas
6:37.
Oh dear…squeal it out, Aussie FBs.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/budgeting/its-a-train-wreck-millions-of-aussies-doomed-by-the-latest-rate-hike-now-spending-more-than-they-earn/news-story/1d2b283f04cd360300ca0bb78fe92568
Power Of Sales Double. What Does That Mean For Brampton, Mississauga & Durham Real Estate? – Nov 1
Team Sessa Real Estate
29 minutes ago CANADA
Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate Market Report for the week of Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lRyN7-eG8g
14 minutes.
‘issues like this are happening in builds all over SWFL. ‘One of the main disputes right now is delays,’ Murphy said. ‘This guy’s taking too long to build my home. He’s taking too long to replace my roof. He’s taking too long to put in new windows’
The money lubricant is turning into molasses.
‘Prior to that time, the market psychology was relatively strong. Investors would get a sale agreed at a low price, but then the sale would be challenged in court by other bidders and the price would be bid up considerably,’ he told Western Investor. ‘Foreclosure trustees knew this, and it was part of the reason they would accept very low offers. However, after mid-October, investors were moving more cautiously, so accepted offers didn’t get challenged in court, and the sales were at much lower prices’
‘Foreclosure trustees knew this, and it was part of the reason they would accept very low offers’
I think this is a typo or misstatement and meant ‘wouldn’t accept very low offers’. What they are describing here is who really decides where the foreclosure crater is going: trustees. When they get overwhelmed they dump the shacks, market be damned.
(Yet another non-housing related article clogging up Ben Jones’ blog.)
UN admits World will crash through Paris Agreement goals by a factor of two for 2030
By Jo Nova
Top 20 Energy mining nations are planning to increase production, not decrease it.
Despite 151 nations signing the Paris Agreement, the UNEP has all but admitted that most of the world is not even pretending to meet their emissions promises. As is obvious in the graph below, governments of the top 20 producers of the evil coal, oil and gas are planning to dig up even more of it by 2030 than they do now. These 20 nations produce 80% of the world’s fossil fuels and somewhere out there are lots of customers.
The report appears to be a scorecard to guilt-trip the 20 naughty nations into giving up warmth, food or billions of dollars in exports, but it reads like the Paris Agreement is pure charade.
Governments plan to produce double the fossil fuels in 2030 than the 1.5°C warming limit allows
Stockholm, 8 November 2023 – A major new report published today finds that governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.
Who are we kidding?
The Production Gap really means “The Overshoot”.
(A chart appears here …)
Speaking of which China just opened the new 1,800 kilometer Haoji Railway — specifically to carry coal
It has 770 bridges spanning a total of 381 kilometers and 468 kilometers of tunnels. They started it in 2015.
No one is holding back on fossil fuels here: Wow, that is some bridge.
(A photo appears here …)
A Nebraska pool company charged people up to 6-figures and vanished after digging giant, ugly pits in their backyards, state AG alleges
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nebraska-pool-company-charged-people-203657767.html
(A snip or two …)
A Nebraska pool company left multiple customers with unsightly pits, a lawsuit alleges.
Premier Pools and Spas would collect 95% of the payments for the pools, then disappear.
Customers paid up to $133,000 for pools, but were left with “ugly gaping holes in their yards,” the AG alleges.
At least five Nebraska homeowners have been left with massive, unsightly pits in their backyards after a local pool installation company took tens of thousands of dollars in payments and vanished before finishing the projects, according to a new lawsuit from Nebraska’s attorney general.
Premier Pools and Spas “swindled” customers and left them saddled with dirt piles, damage to decks and patios, rebar protruding from the ground, and stagnant water pooling inside the unfinished mud pits, the lawsuit alleged. Then, the company even tried to illegally silence customers from leaving online reviews and complaints, according to the lawsuit.
“These consumers deserve their money back. They deserve to live in homes without dangerous and ugly gaping holes in their yards,” the lawsuit said.
The company’s “scheme” was simple, the attorney general alleged. Premier Pools would require customers to pay 45% of the total bill upfront, then would dig a hole in their yards. The company would then refuse to continue construction until customers paid another 50% of the total bill — at which point Premier Pools would stop answering their calls and texts.
Would you prefer inflation, where everything becomes less and less affordable, or deflation, where affordability continuously improves over time?
Never mind that deflation is central banker kryptonite. Which would you prefer, personally?
Financial Times
Chinese economy
China’s economy tumbles back into deflation in blow to recovery
Falling pork prices undercut growth as consumer confidence lags
Visitors on Nanjing East Road, a major shopping street, in Shanghai
Economists argue that Beijing needs to do more to stimulate domestic consumption and lift flagging demand in the economy
Joe Leahy in Beijing 2 hours ago
China’s economy edged back into deflation last month, spurred by falling pork prices, as policymakers struggled to reignite domestic demand in the midst of a rolling property sector crisis and following the end of strict pandemic controls early this year.
The consumer price index fell 0.2 per cent in October year on year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday, compared with a 0.1 per cent fall forecast by a Reuters poll of analysts. The CPI was unchanged in September.
Producer prices fell for a 13th consecutive month, dropping 2.6 per cent year on year, against a 2.7 per cent decline forecast by economists, and following a 2.5 per cent contraction in September.
…
Financial Times
US banks
Overdue commercial property loans hit 10-year high at US banks
Higher interest rates, an uncertain economy and remote work pile pressure on office space owners
Office tower
Past-due property loans at Wells Fargo rose more than 50% to $3.4bn in the third quarter, up from just $400mn a year ago
Stephen Gandel and Joshua Franklin in New York 3 hours ago
Delinquent commercial real estate loans at US banks have hit their highest level in a decade, as higher interest rates, an uncertain economy and the rise of remote working pile pressure on building owners.
The volume of past-due loans in which so-called non-owner occupiers have missed more than one payment jumped 30 per cent, or $4bn, to $17.7bn in the three months to the end of September, according to industry tracker BankRegData. The figure had risen by $10bn in a year.
Bank lending remains in historically good shape and even after the recent jump, just 1.5 per cent of commercial property loans were past due. Nonetheless, industry watchers said the number of properties under pressure was likely to continue to rise, especially in the office sector.
Bill Moreland, who runs BankRegData, told clients that commercial real estate lending was “getting ugly fast”.
“It’s not a hiccup — it’s not Covid and then recover,” said Leo Huang, the head of commercial real estate debt at Ellington Management Group, an asset manager. “Property prices are going to come down and loan delinquencies are going to keep going up.”
…
“Property prices are going to come down and loan delinquencies are going to keep going up.”
Sounds like there is a reasonably good chance that property price affordability is destined to soon improve.
Does the prospect of a “silver tsunami” worry you?
Yahoo
Yahoo Finance
Meredith Whitney: Housing prices are due for a fall starting in 2024
Jennifer Schonberger
Wed, November 8, 2023 at 2:00 AM PST·2 min read
Analyst Meredith Whitney is known for her call that anticipated the 2008 financial crisis. Now she is predicting that the housing market is due for some dramatic changes starting in 2024.
Prices will start to go down and the supply of homes for sale will go up, she said Tuesday, reversing current dynamics that make the home-buying process difficult for many Americas.
The reason: a “silver tsunami” of baby boomers who are expected to start downsizing.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meredith-whitney-housing-prices-are-due-for-a-fall-starting-in-2024-100042234.html
The widower up the hill is 2 years in for the 3-year disclosure requirement of a death in the home. Next October might be just right.
I’m told Chinese won’t consider a home in which someone’s died. Can anyone verify that?