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Artificial High Valuation And Hubris Preceded The Eventual Crash

A report from the Phoenix Business Journal in Arizona. “Homebuyers who missed out on the buyer’s market last year might soon be getting another opportunity for value. ‘Buyers are going to get another chance at a buyer’s market,’ said Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst for The Cromford Report. There are some cities in the peripheral areas of the Valley where it’s already a buyer’s market, she said, pointing to Queen Creek, Maricopa, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon, and Litchfield Park. ‘Surprise, Peoria and Sun City are in balance,’ she said. ‘Everything else is a seller’s market.'”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The Dallas-Fort Worth housing market slowed in October, bringing the region’s median home price below $400,000 for the first time since March. ‘We have seen a tremendous drop in the volume of sales activity,’ said Todd Luong, a real estate agent in Frisco with Re/Max DFW Associates. ‘Although higher mortgage rates have helped to lower prices somewhat, it has not been enough to make things affordable for many buyers currently in the market.’ ‘If the home is move-in, turn-key ready, it will go into multiple offers,’ said Shana Acquisto, president of the Collin County Association of Realtors. ‘If it’s not, it’s going to sit.’ She said many clients are turning to seller or owner financing and that other sellers may offer to buy down mortgage rates in place of price reductions.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Houston-area home sales continue to fall, closing in on a slump not seen since the Great Recession of 2007-09. Year-over-year sales in the region fell for the 19th straight month in October as potential buyers paused plans amid mortgage rates at their highest levels in two decades. During the recession in the late aughts, Houston-area home sales fell for a string of 24 months, from September 2007 to August 2009. ‘The Houston real estate market had an encore performance of slower home sales and solid rental activity in October, and we can probably expect those trends to prevail for the rest of the year,’ HAR Chair Cathy Treviño said in the report. ‘Housing inventory has grown steadily in recent months and pricing has moderated, so any notable decline in mortgage rates will likely spark renewed interest in homebuying, but only the Fed can control whether that happens.'”

“Caroline Bean, an agent with Compass who sells in the River Oaks, Avalon, West University Place and Memorial areas, said higher mortgage rates are slowing purchases. Sellers, meanwhile, are having to adjust expectations as comparable sales of six months ago may not be as realistic as homes become more expensive to finance. The days of putting a sign in the yard and buyers lining up to bid appear to be in the rearview mirror. ‘Within the last three weeks or so, houses have had to take price reductions,’ Bean said. ‘We’ve seen under asking (price) offers and longer days on the market, which I’m very hopeful and expect that to change once the rates come back down.'”

Building Salt Lake in Utah. “Two construction supply companies have asked a state court to foreclose on a set of properties associated with the developer Q Factor, its owners and a web of their affiliated companies that abruptly closed last month. Those buildings include Industry SLC, the marquee project credited as catalytic for redevelopment in the Granary District, and a number of buildings that are still under construction throughout Salt Lake City and the Wasatch Front. The filings are only the latest sign that trouble continues to mount for the owners of a development company at the center of the slate of Salt Lake City construction companies that failed last month.”

“Multiple creditors have filed suit seeking payment for work they’ve done in recent months but say they haven’t been paid for by Makers Line, the general contracting company that was owned by H. Jason Winkler, who also owns Q Factor. Jason Winkler declined to comment for the story and didn’t respond to a list of questions about his businesses and the status of money that numerous employees told Building Salt Lake they haven’t been paid for work they conducted before Winkler’s companies folded in late October.”

“The web of companies associated with the Winklers were offering labor and materials from any number of companies all providing services required to construct buildings. From sheetrock to concrete to steel to general construction, placemaking and design, the Winklers’ companies became a one-stop shop for investors who were looking to capitalize on the low-rate environment fueling Utah’s commercial construction boom over the past decade. That construction boom came to an abrupt end when the Federal Reserve raised borrowing rates to their highest level in over two decades, bringing new commercial real estate development to a near standstill.”

The Belleville News-Democrat in Illinois. “The late Mayor Mark Eckert wore one of the chain’s bright-orange aprons and used a power saw to cut a piece of plywood instead of a ribbon. He spoke of the city’s future along the Illinois 15 corridor. Sixteen years later, the 50-acre development of retail stores, restaurants and other businesses has hit a rough patch. Tenants and city officials have been complaining about tall weeds, malfunctioning signs, overflowing trash receptacles and potholes in the parking lot for years. Several large storefronts are empty. The main strip mall within the shopping center is in court-ordered receivership due to defaults on bank loans.”

“Owner Jonathan Larmore and his family ‘have been diverting Company assets to fund their unbelievably lavish lifestyle,’ according to a civil lawsuit filed in May and voluntarily dismissed without prejudice in October in federal court. It could be filed again. The lawsuit pointed to the family’s 12 residences, two airplanes, boats, vehicles and other ‘luxury toys’ and accused them of throwing ‘six-figure’ parties, including one for their dog’s birthday. The investors argued that, while all this was going on, Belleville Crossing was falling into disrepair.”

Multi-Housing News. “Navigating the multifamily real estate landscape through the discerning eyes of institutional players offers a varied spectrum of insights and evolving strategies. Our detailed analysis of feedback from over 30 prominent institutional joint venture partners sheds light on the contemporary narratives defining the market. There’s also a marked change in investor sentiment with regard to the the once-favored pre-1990s era value-add assets. Today’s narrative has dramatically shifted as most institutions now sidestep these assets. The few that show interest demand returns on par with high-risk development projects, specifically an IRR exceeding 20 percent. Concerns around functional obsolescence, rising renovation costs, and the inherent risks that generally fail to justify returns underpin this shift.”

“Rent growth paints a picture of cautious optimism. Projections of around 3 percent rent growth are common in many regions, but there’s palpable unease in overbuilt areas, notably within the Sun Belt. Here, the pendulum swings towards flat or even negative growth due to oversupply concerns and doubts about timely product absorption. Feedback indicates that institutional partners are heavily inclined towards assets displaying signs of distress. The allure isn’t restricted to traditionally distressed assets but extends to those with compelling stories: sellers pinned by floating rate debt, those entangled in liquidity challenges due to redemption issues, or properties tethered to failed business strategies. The collective sentiment is clear: Assets without a distressed backstory find fewer takers.”

From Bloomberg. “WeWork Inc.’s bankruptcy filing caps a years-long saga that revealed breathtaking flaws in the investment style of Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son, damaging his professional reputation far beyond the money he lost. Son overrode his lieutenants’ objections and handed WeWork founder Adam Neumann billions of dollars from both SoftBank Group Corp. and the Vision Fund, lifting the co-working office space’s valuation to an astronomical $47 billion in early 2019. Just months later, investors balked at the deep losses and conflicts of interest WeWork’s IPO filings revealed.”

“‘You can recover from mistakes, but how do you recover from the perception that you don’t know what you’re doing?’ said Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. ‘His actions say, ‘I am arrogant.’”

“The impact of Son’s infatuation with WeWork and other startups was magnified by the initial $60 billion committed by the Saudi and Abu Dhabi wealth funds to the first Vision Fund. Son’s determination to mint unicorns at breakneck speed by pushing startups to scale up inflated valuations around the world, as rivals such as Tiger Global Management and Sequoia Capital were pressured to match the Vision Fund’s big checks. It only took a few years for such values to come crashing down when spending failed to translate into sales, profits and IPOs. ‘It is not just the investment losses that are important but the story behind it,’ said Kirk Boodry, an analyst at Astris Advisory. ‘The massive cash infusion drove the artificial high valuation and hubris that preceded the eventual crash.'”

The Globe and Mail. “For new Canadians, purchasing a first property is sometimes the fulfilment of the dream of a better life. But a group of buyers in a Cambridge, Ont., townhouse project are warning that an obscure section of Ontario tenant law can turn that dream into a nightmare. ‘All the things went wrong. Nothing went right,” said Roland Shehaj, who bought a three-bedroom condo townhouse on Parkview Crescent in Cambridge Ont., in 2022. What he soon found out was that, because the townhouse was part of a complex that had been converted from purpose-built rentals to condominiums, he was not going to be able to move in so long as the tenants he inherited wanted to stay. ‘I have a cousin who’s sort of a paralegal. He said, ‘You’re screwed.’”

“The couple started a family, and in 2020 Mr. Shehaj became a citizen. In April, 2022 near the peak of a frenzied real estate market, he paid $485,000 for a townhouse that he now finds his family can’t legally occupy. The family of five is still paying $2,000 a month for a two-bedroom apartment in Mississauga while also paying $2,100 a month for the townhouse mortgage, rent from which is just $1,300, or less than one-third of his costs. ‘There’s no way out,’ he said. ‘I’m obligated to be liable for something I don’t want.’ For the buyers, even a year later they still feel trapped and desperate. ‘I understand I made a mistake,’ said Mr. Shehaj, who has tried and failed to sell his unit for a price that won’t ruin him. ‘This thing is not resolvable by any means.'”

I News in the UK. “As a growing number of people report defective new build homes, Alexandra Druzhinin, 49, tells i how her property purchase ruined her life. She lives in a new build flat in north London with her daughter, where she has been financially trapped for five years. ‘I paid almost a million pounds for my new build property, and every day I wake into a nightmare. When my husband and I separated, we sold the family home, and I used my share to buy a luxury apartment in Camden, north London. It was supposed to be a new chapter in life for me and my daughter, who was 17 at the time, and studying for her A-Levels.'”

“‘It was a brand-new property finished in 2018. Prior to purchasing, I viewed it four times and had an extensive survey carried out, so I never imagined anything could go wrong. But in 2019 we discovered damp and mould in the ceiling cavity of my daughter’s bedroom. When we removed the ceiling we found boards which were rotten and mouldy, and when a contractor drilled into the boards, black water gushed out of the ceiling – buckets of it. My neighbours also discovered leaks in their apartments. Shortly afterwards, large cracks appeared around the façade of the building.'”

“‘I paid £900,000 up front for this apartment, plus fees, and I spent another £120,000 renovating it because even though it was marketed as a “luxury” property, the interiors were ill-fitting and shoddy. I’m lucky not to have a mortgage, but I’m constantly borrowing cash to subsidise my legal fight. I’ve spent £104,000 on legal fees so far, and between the three of us we’ve spent at least £325,000 fighting. We’re stuck in the middle between the developer who took our money, and the warranty provider who’s supposed to pay out if something goes wrong. Neither of them are taking responsibility. We’re trapped. I want to get paid out and I want to just forget that this happened – that this ever existed. I want to move on with my life.'”

From Bloomberg. “A $5.5 billion selloff in Ping An Insurance Group Co. is underscoring why a mooted takeover of distressed developer Country Garden Holdings Co. would be perilous for both the insurer and the Chinese financial system. Ping An has repeatedly denied a Reuters report on Wednesday that Chinese authorities asked the company to buy Country Garden — and analysts have put low odds on a deal materializing. Yet even the outside chance of a rescue has sent Ping An shares tumbling almost 7% over the past two sessions to the lowest level in a year. The market’s response offers a fresh reminder of why a Ping An-Country Garden combination might cause more problems than it solves.”

“‘Investors are worried that Ping An is being asked once more to clean up a mess, much like it did with China Fortune Land, which ended up being a huge drain on its finances,’ said Li Xuetong, fund manager at Shenzhen Enjoy Investment Management Co. ‘Any investment may take down Ping An,’ given the depressed valuation of Chinese property assets, he added. Ping An may have no obligation or intention to take over the property company ‘considering that it has already cut its position in Country Garden,’ Nomura analysts including Shengbo Tang wrote in a note. ‘It has also controlled its overall exposure to real estate which shows that it has learned a lesson from its investments in China Fortune Land.'”

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This is the new housing bubble blog. We were unable to upgrade the last one…

This Post Has 77 Comments

    1. google says: A Fort Collins homebuilder facing a number of lawsuits has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Bluestone Homes of Colorado, which lists a Fort Collins P.O. box as its address, filed for bankruptcy Oct. 31.

  2. ‘Buyers are going to get another chance at a buyer’s market,’ said Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst for The Cromford Report. There are some cities in the peripheral areas of the Valley where it’s already a buyer’s market, she said, pointing to Queen Creek, Maricopa, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon, and Litchfield Park’

    Tina:

    via GIPHY

    1. A report from the Phoenix Business Journal in Arizona. “Homebuyers who missed out on the buyer’s market last year might soon be getting another opportunity for value. ‘Buyers are going to get another chance at a buyer’s market,’ said Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst for The Cromford Report.“

      – There wasn’t a buyer’s market last year. It hasn’t happened yet, but it’s coming. This from Tina (there is no alternative) to housing.

      – The slow motion train wreck that is U.S. housing and economy continues. Daily updates WITHOUT the positive REIC spin here at the HBB. Thank you Ben!

      – It’s a bubble, and bubbles always burst. Thank your guberment, including the Fed. They blow and then suck. Caveat emptor. Caveat citizen (civis).

  3. ‘From sheetrock to concrete to steel to general construction, placemaking and design, the Winklers’ companies became a one-stop shop for investors who were looking to capitalize on the low-rate environment fueling Utah’s commercial construction boom over the past decade’

    They got a huge clusterfook going on in the sh$thole state.

  4. There’s also a marked change in investor sentiment with regard to the the once-favored pre-1990s era value-add assets. Today’s narrative has dramatically shifted as most institutions now sidestep these assets’

    Oh dear…

    ‘Projections of around 3 percent rent growth are common in many regions, but there’s palpable unease in overbuilt areas, notably within the Sun Belt. Here, the pendulum swings towards flat or even negative growth due to oversupply concerns and doubts about timely product absorption. Feedback indicates that institutional partners are heavily inclined towards assets displaying signs of distress. The allure isn’t restricted to traditionally distressed assets but extends to those with compelling stories: sellers pinned by floating rate debt, those entangled in liquidity challenges due to redemption issues, or properties tethered to failed business strategies. The collective sentiment is clear: Assets without a distressed backstory find fewer takers’

    How the mighty have fallen.

  5. I paid almost a million pounds for my new build property, and every day I wake into a nightmare…We’re trapped. I want to get paid out and I want to just forget that this happened – that this ever existed. I want to move on with my life’

    You got schlonged Alex, this boxy dump already looks 30 years old.

  7. Tucker Carlson
    @TuckerCarlson
    Ep. 37 The two defining tragedies of our time — the war in Ukraine and the presidency of Joe Biden — are both finally coming to an end.

    TIMESTAMPS:
    (00:17) Glenn Greenwald joins
    (05:41) Will the Ukraine War Hawks ever apologize?
    (07:25) Using foreign wars to punish Americans
    (10:00) Free speech hypocrisy
    (18:18) Biden’s awful poll numbers
    (21:31) Liberal media turn on Biden
    (25:09) 2024 predictions

    https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1722034150595522695

    1. I’m no military expert, but I can look at a map. Ukranistan never, ever had a chance to prevail. It was a fantasy that got half a million drafted people killed. And now that it’s all but over, what happened to the ‘we gotta kill Ruskies over there so we don’t have to fight them here’ horsehocky?

      Russia’s economy is the same size as Spain’s. They never were and never will be a ‘threat’ to the US. Neocons always lose and always get a sh$tload of people killed in the process.

      1. Citizen! Have you not watched “Red Dawn”? If Ukraine falls, please grab Old Betsy and report to your nearest Colorado high school and prepare to fight the good fight against the motherless commie hordes. (The ones parachuting in from Russian transport planes, not your state, local, & FedGove Democrat appartchiks.) Wolverines!

          1. Neither have I. IIRC It was something about an all out Soviet invasion of the US and how some high school students from a small town in Colorado fought back.

  8. 100% safe and effective.

    Epoch Times (11/7/2023):

    “A new preprint study up for peer review finds billions of residual DNA fragments in the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine vials.

    The lead author of the study, molecular virologist David Speicher, who has a doctorate in virology, told The Epoch Times that their study is “the largest study” on residual DNA in COVID-19 vaccines to date.

    “In our study, we measured DNA copies of spike, ori (origin of replication), and SV40 enhancer genes,” he told The Epoch Times. “The loads of SV40 enhancer-promoter, ori, and virus spike in Pfizer are up to 186 billion copies per dose.”

    The spike he refers to is the DNA sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which can be transcribed to spike mRNA to be used in the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines to be translated to spike protein. The other two DNAs—SV40 enhancer genes and ori—help facilitate the replication of spike DNA.

    However, the final mRNA vaccines should only include RNA and not residual DNA instructions for spike production.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/billions-of-copies-of-dna-impurities-and-contaminants-in-a-single-dose-of-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-preprint-5515324?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge&src_src=partner&src_cmp=ZeroHedge

    Remember when you were threatened to get FIRED FROM YOUR JOB for not getting injected with deadly, experimental DNA poison?

    Remember? Remember who made those threats?

    And not just people in government, remember all those journalists? Remember all those Twitter blue checkmarks?

    Remember ALL of them. Names, addresses, all of it.

    Because the Day Of The Rope is coming ☠️

    1. Related article.

      Nearly a Quarter of Americans Say They Know Someone Who Died From COVID-19 Shot (11/5/2023):

      “This revelation comes from the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey.

      The survey was conducted on October 26 and 29-30, 2023, by Rasmussen Reports, with a sample size of 1,110 American adults.

      The survey found that 24% of American adults claim to know someone personally who died due to the side effects of the COVID-19 vaccine.

      Furthermore, the survey delved into the potential legal ramifications of these beliefs.

      A notable 42% of respondents expressed that they would ‘likely’ join a major class-action lawsuit against big pharma if one were to file a lawsuit concerning vaccine side effects. This includes 24% who said it’s ‘very likely’ they’d join such a lawsuit.”

      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/11/killer-jab-nearly-quarter-americans-say-they-know/

      When they re-poll this question in a few years, it will be more than half.

      The cancer is inside you, just waiting to go full turbo.

      Nobody regrets not getting injected with this Jim Jones juice. Nobody.

      1. nah, they can eat poo with the “class action lawsuit” and lotto winnings. They knew the risks, they were unwilling ot stand up for themselves (and others). Had they been willing to stand up like the rest of the purebloods this nonsense would have stopped right there. But no, they were cowards then and cowards now.

        and now, i should work harder to reward them with lotto winnings?

        no

        Damn it’s good to be a pureblood.

        1. I know plenty of people who were smart enough to know better, panic and run, tripping over each other, to get the jab.

  9. Federal income taxes.

    Russia Today (11/9/2023):

    “There is no way the Russian military can be defeated, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has claimed. President Vladimir Putin said last week that Western governments were lowering their expectations regarding the outcome of the Ukraine conflict.

    Speaking to Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin on Thursday, Peskov stated “it is high time that everyone in Kiev and Washington realized: it’s impossible to defeat Russia on the battlefield.”

    Putin claimed on Friday that Western powers were “changing their tune now [and] saying different things” compared to their previous insistence on inflicting a military defeat on Russia.

    Also last week, Ukraine’s top military commander, General Valery Zaluzhny, admitted in an article published by The Economist that Kiev’s troops were unlikely to pull off a “deep and beautiful breakthrough” in the conflict with Russia, unless provided with more advanced weapons by the West.”

    https://www.rt.com/russia/586919-peskov-russia-cant-be-defeated/

    Does the Pentagon think that publishing recruiting ads with white males will make them want to fight and die for Ukraine?

    Because it won’t.

    Nobody outside the Beltway supports Ukraine. Nobody.

    1. Does the Pentagon think that publishing recruiting ads with white males will make them want to fight and die for Ukraine?

      History is going to record that renaming the U.S. Army bases named after Confederate generals was the turning point. No white soldier should be under any illusion that the Biden regime and its globalist puppetmasters have anything but implacable hostility toward heritage America, the Constitution, and those reviled and marginalized white Christian males, especially those from the Midwest & southern states.

  10. SF supervisors criticized for taking taxpayer-funded trip to Japan to learn about math

    San Francisco Board of Supervisors Hillary Ronen and Myrna Melgar are missing board meetings while on a taxpayer-funded trip to Japan to explore math educational methods at Tokyo Gakugei University.

    Concerns about the trip: The trip has raised questions as the supervisors have no direct influence over educational curricula in San Francisco. In addition, the city is facing a significant half-billion-dollar budget deficit, and algebra has not been taught to eighth graders in the city for almost a decade, according to The San Francisco Standard.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/sf-supervisors-criticized-taking-taxpayer-161420550.html

    ‘algebra has not been taught to eighth graders in the city for almost a decade’

    1. Maff be hard, yo! But “equity” ensures low aptitude & technical incompetence is no barrier to hiring and promotion.

  11. EV Makers Turn to Discounts to Combat Waning Demand

    Market leader Tesla has slashed prices this year across its lineup, reducing the starting price of some models by roughly a third. Ford Motor has also marked down its Mustang Mach-E SUV at least two times this year.

    For consumers such promotions can be a boon, helping to shrink the price difference between an EV and a traditional gasoline vehicle. But it is another sign that the once-hot market for these models is losing its charge.

    Car executives and dealers say the discounts and price cuts are necessary because buyers are less willing to pay a premium for an EV.

    Discounts are frequently used by carmakers to grab market share or sell unpopular models, but they also dent profits and can hurt resale values for buyers owning those models.

    Dealers say part of the problem is that a wealthier group of early EV adopters have already purchased a vehicle. Now, the industry is confronting a more reticent group of consumers, who are already being squeezed by high interest rates and rising costs. “I think there was a miscalculation about demand and how much EVs would be coveted,” said Joseph Yoon, an Edmunds analyst.

    Electric vehicles are now some of the slowest sellers on dealership lots.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ev-makers-turn-to-discounts-to-combat-waning-demand/ar-AA1jwomy

    1. EVs seem to be the vehicle of choice for virtue-signaling libtards. When I see the rapid depreciation of their vehicles, I feel joy.

  12. The real evidence shows that diseases plummeted once modern day plumbing and clean up of water occurred.
    The Rockerfeller medial monopoly socially engineered taking chemicals and vaccines as health care.
    Rockerfellers father was a Con Artist who would fake he was a doctor to sell snake oil to public.
    Probably where Rockerfeller got the idea on how the fleece the public.
    Bad break for Society

  13. The real evidence shows that diseases plummeted once modern day plumbing and clean up of water occurred.
    The Rockerfeller medial monopoly socially engineered taking chemicals and vaccines as health care.
    Rockerfellers father was a Con Artist who would fake he was a doctor to sell snake oil to public.
    Probably where Rockerfeller got the idea on how to fleece the public.
    Bad break for Society

  14. Yahoo
    Bloomberg
    ‘Dark Matter’ Bond Metric Mesmerizes Wall Street and Washington
    Liz Capo McCormick and Michael Mackenzie
    Thu, November 9, 2023 at 3:15 AM PST·6 min read

    (Bloomberg) — It’s the buzz word on Wall Street and in the hallways of the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department. It’s blamed for triggering bond selloffs, shifts in debt auctions and interest-rate policy. That few agree on what exactly it reflects, or how to measure it, seems to matter little — the term premium is a powerful new force in the market.

    Typically described as the extra yield investors demand to own longer-term debt instead of rolling over shorter-term securities as they mature, the term premium, in the broadest sense, is seen as protection against unforeseen risks such as inflation and supply-demand shocks, encapsulating everything other than expectations for the path of near-term interest rates.

    The problem is it’s not directly observable. Various Wall Street and central bank economists have developed models to estimate it, often with wildly conflicting results. The one thing that most market observers, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, can agree on is that in recent months the term premium has soared, likely fueling the dramatic ascent in long-term rates that only recently has started to fade.

    The implications for the trajectory of monetary policy are substantial. Powell and other Fed officials have said that the jump in the term premium could hasten the end of their interest-rate hikes by squeezing growth in the economy, effectively doing some of the work for them as they try to rein in inflation. Yet with traders having long struggled to handicap the Fed’s next moves, some warn the central bank’s focus on the notoriously hard-to-understand feature of the US government debt market is making it even more difficult to anticipate the path of rates going forward.

    “It seems like a strange door for the Fed to open,” said Jason Williams, a global market strategist at Citigroup Inc. “It’s puzzling as the term premium is something that by definition you can’t know, which the Fed realizes but still is saying its rise is important and can offset some potential hikes.”
    …
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dark-matter-bond-metric-mesmerizes-111500051.html

    1. “Typically described as the extra yield investors demand to own longer-term debt instead of rolling over shorter-term securities as they mature,…”

      1 It’s still negative, as the yield curve remains inverted.

      2 It’s less negative than earlier this year, thanks to bear steepening.

      3 The market has priced in “higher for longer”, reflecting growing disbelief that the Fed is soon going to drop short term rates.

  15. Israel False Flag – Apache Helicopter Footage From Supernova Music Festival

    Kudos to “Syrian Girl” (X user @partisangirl) for sourcing the videos.

    Let there be no doubt that this is yet another false flag event, perpetrated by Israel and given credence by its Western backers to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians from their homeland. Is it any wonder there are worldwide protests in support of the Palestinians, when our Western governments are giving a wink and a nod to Israel. Watch in all its gory detail what your tax dollars is financing.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/l0BcozXppBYI/

    4:16. This looks like helicopters targeting and blowing up then machine gunning these concert goers repeatedly. I don’t think Hamas had helicopters that day.

    1. Even if they did, Israel allowed it to happen so it could disproportionately “defend” itself.

      2. The only thing I’ve seen Hamas flying was a hang glider with some kind of small motor attached. I’m aware that videos can be faked. But lets look at this. It’s from an elevated stable platform, consistent with a helicopter. Advanced optics. The targets are being hit with rockets/missiles. The automatic gunfire is loud enough to be recorded on the video, also consistent with coming from the helicopter itself.

        I’ve watched some Hamas videos. Why would they waste expensive rockets on music lovers yet in almost every other instance they are attacking Israeli tanks with home made bombs and RPGs? This video just hit bitchute, so we’ll see what comes of it.

        1. “This video just hit bitchute”

          +1 for BitChute links.

          YouTube (other than music) is globalist, censored garbage.

  16. CNBC (11/9/2023):

    “Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday.

    Balances jumped 15% from a year ago, according to a separate quarterly credit industry insights report from TransUnion, while the average balance per consumer hit $6,088, the highest in 10 years.

    Persistent inflation has put many households under financial pressure — more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month or falling behind on payments.

    Credit card delinquency rates rose across the board, the New York Fed and TransUnion found.

    “These are consumers who are struggling to afford their everyday expenses,” said Charlie Wise, senior vice president of global research and consulting at TransUnion. “They’re trying to keep the house of cards from collapsing.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/09/average-credit-card-balances-top-6000-a-10-year-high.html

    How much of this is because of the cost of FOOD?

    And how much new money has been printed since the beginning of CCP Flu?

    All the “right people” got their millions and billions.

    You get $4 gas and a 70% increase in food costs.

  17. WeWork Shares Have Plunged 99% But Founder Adam Neumann Remains A Billionaire

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wework-shares-have-plunged-99-founder-adam-neumann-remains-billionaire

    Even though WeWork has filed for bankruptcy, founder Adam Neumann remains a billionaire.

    In what has been one of the biggest valuation collapses in history, WeWork has seen the lower rung of its current capital structure all but wiped out, falling from a peak valuation that was near $50 billion. And while shareholders have been involuntarily decimated, the company’s founder still remains a billionaire.

    As Bloomberg noted this week, the company’s bankruptcy occurred two years after its initial public offering, which was notably absent of its controversial co-founder. The firm reported $19 billion in debts against $15 billion in assets.

    Significant stakeholders like Softbank Group Corp. and the Vision Fund are poised to face additional substantial losses on top of those already incurred from this venture.

    In a statement, Neumann said: “It has been challenging for me to watch from the sidelines as WeWork has failed to take advantage of a product that is more relevant today than ever before.” Yeah, we bet you’re really struggling with it, Adam…

    But despite the tarnishing of his reputation and WeWork’s botched IPO in 2019, former CEO Neumann left with substantial liquidity, still holding a net worth of $1.7 billion.

    Although his wealth dipped from $2.3 billion after WeWork went public via a SPAC in 2021, his WeWork shares plummeted by over 99%. He previously benefited from significant cash outs, including a $185 million non-compete fee and $578 million for selling shares to SoftBank, which also provided him a $432 million loan using his WeWork shares as collateral.

    The company’s bankruptcy is notably impacting the “visionaries” at SoftBank with an estimated $11.5 billion equity loss and $2.2 billion in outstanding debt. The ongoing bankruptcy proceedings will determine the distribution of company assets, with debt likely to be swapped for equity and subordinate bondholders facing losses.

    But Neumann seems to be doing just fine, Bloomberg noted. He is channeling his efforts into Flow, his new startup focusing on residential properties, which garnered a $350 million investment from Andreessen Horowitz, valuing the company at $1 billion before it even launched.

    Flow’s mission is to enhance community and a sense of ownership among residents in multi-family properties, some of which Neumann already owned. The exact amount of Neumann’s investment in Flow is unclear, suggesting his actual net worth might exceed Bloomberg’s estimates.

    However, Neumann’s financial ventures have seen mixed results. His family office defaulted on interest payments for a $31 million mortgage on a San Jose property. Neumann, once criticized for leasing buildings to WeWork, no longer has such dealings with the company, sparing him from lease renegotiations amidst WeWork’s bankruptcy.

    Zero Hedge contributor Quoth the Raven wrote this week that the WeWork bankruptcy is “multiple lessons, packaged in one”. He said “it offers us lessons about how anybody will take dogsh*t to the market and try to assign it a grand valuation, how nobody does due diligence, and how people can continually get bamboozled by legacy business models that are wrapped up and repackaged as something new when they aren’t.”

    And while Neumann’s future involvement with WeWork is uncertain, there have been discussions, despite his lack of a non-compete clause, about a potential role in the company’s post-bankruptcy phase. Neumann concluded: “With the right strategy and team, a reorganization will enable WeWork to emerge successfully.”

    Should that happen, all we can say is future shareholders will likely get what they deserve…

    1. “…The company’s bankruptcy is notably impacting the “visionaries” at SoftBank with an estimated $11.5 billion equity loss and $2.2 billion in outstanding debt…”

      Define Softbank “Visionary” – A new species of lizard brain

  18. The Atlantic is the enemy of the American people.

    The Atlantic (11/9/2023):

    “Anybody ever hear of Hannibal Lecter?” former President Donald Trump asked last night. “He was a nice fellow. But that’s what’s coming into our country right now.”

    The leader of the Republican Party—and quite likely the 2024 GOP nominee—was on an extended rant about mental institutions, prisons, and, to use his phrase, “empty insane asylums.” Speaking to thousands of die-hard supporters at a rally in South Florida, Trump lamented that, under President Joe Biden, the United States has become “the dumping ground of the world.” That he had casually praised one of the most infamous psychopathic serial killers in cinema history was but an aside, brushed over and forgotten.

    This was a dystopian, at times gothic speech. It droned on for nearly 90 minutes. Trump attacked the “liars and leeches” who have been “sucking the life and blood” out of the country. Those unnamed people were similar to, yet different from, the “rotten, corrupt, and tyrannical establishment” of Washington, D.C.—a place Trump famously despises, and to which he nonetheless longs to return.

    The night was heavy on psychological projection. “We are here tonight to declare that Crooked Joe Biden’s banana republic ends on November 5, 2024,” Trump said. Later, he vowed to “start by exposing every last crime committed by Crooked Joe Biden. Because now that he indicted me, we’re allowed to look at him. But he did real bad things,” Trump said. “We will restore law and order to our communities. And I will direct a completely overhauled DOJ to investigate every Marxist prosecutor in America for their illegal, racist, and reverse enforcement of the law on day one.”

    https://archive.li/b02i4

    Clutch those pearls harder, globalist scum media.

  19. The Washington Post is the enemy of the American people.

    Washington Post (11/9/2023):

    “It was unavoidable, from the moment that NBC News agreed to host the third Republican presidential debate on Wednesday night, that it would be a conduit for misinformation. Any political debate involves some falsehoods, it’s safe to assume, but a debate featuring candidates vying for an electorate deeply committed to supporting Donald Trump is almost certainly going to be one that amplifies nonsense.

    Misinformation piped from right-wing media showed up in the first sentences offered by a candidate, specifically, the opening statement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He was asked why he was the better candidate than Trump (who leads him and everyone else who appeared on the debate stage by a wide margin). DeSantis then launched into a prepared speech about the “trouble” the country was in thanks to uncaring “elites.”

    https://archive.li/VoF9S

  21. Ben, perhaps you can make more sense of this than me.

    Mortgage Lending Just Broke, Fannie & Freddie Freaking Out! (37m40s)

    Something is seriously wrong in the mortgage lending business with all the major players now on the defensive as once again it appears that widespread fraud is causing a major disruption to the flow of credit in real estate. @m3_melody joins me to talk about the chaos that has erupted in the mortgage business in just that last few days that the mainstream press is ignoring.

    1. This is more navel gazing click fishing crap you see these days from people who really know nothing about real estate.

  22. ‘Feedback indicates that institutional partners are heavily inclined towards assets displaying signs of distress. The allure isn’t restricted to traditionally distressed assets but extends to those with compelling stories: sellers pinned by floating rate debt, those entangled in liquidity challenges due to redemption issues, or properties tethered to failed business strategies’

    That’s the spirit vultures!

  23. ‘The impact of Son’s infatuation with WeWork and other startups was magnified by the initial $60 billion committed by the Saudi and Abu Dhabi wealth funds to the first Vision Fund. Son’s determination to mint unicorns at breakneck speed by pushing startups to scale up inflated valuations around the world, as rivals such as Tiger Global Management and Sequoia Capital were pressured to match the Vision Fund’s big checks. It only took a few years for such values to come crashing down when spending failed to translate into sales, profits and IPOs’

    Years ago when there were over 1000 mega ‘unicorns’ I asked, is this because there are so many great ideas or is it because we just had the largest money creation events in human history?

    1. Not only were the ideas not great, most of them were outright terrible.

      I’m old enough to remember when “start ups” began in a garage on a shoestring budget.

      1. We’re in the initial post QE downturn. Start ups aren’t new, every new business is a start up. But you needed a good concept and if it had big potential, initial investors, promising growth, you took it public to raise capital cuz you needed that to get the scale. Now they skip all that, and in the case of weework, they raised billions never having proven anything, lost it all, and will be in text books for decades as one of the biggest flim flams ever.

  24. ‘I have a cousin who’s sort of a paralegal. He said, ‘You’re screwed’

    At least have a lawyer look at it Roland.

    ‘The couple started a family, and in 2020 Mr. Shehaj became a citizen. In April, 2022 near the peak of a frenzied real estate market, he paid $485,000 for a townhouse that he now finds his family can’t legally occupy. The family of five is still paying $2,000 a month for a two-bedroom apartment in Mississauga while also paying $2,100 a month for the townhouse mortgage, rent from which is just $1,300, or less than one-third of his costs. ‘There’s no way out,’ he said. ‘I’m obligated to be liable for something I don’t want.’ For the buyers, even a year later they still feel trapped and desperate. ‘I understand I made a mistake,’ said Mr. Shehaj, who has tried and failed to sell his unit for a price that won’t ruin him. ‘This thing is not resolvable by any means’

    Nice example of immigrants driving up housing demand in K-da. BTW Roland, it’s going to be resolved and yer gonna throw the keys on the table.

    1. Nice example of immigrants

      “New Canadians” per the article.

      Imagine your homeland being such a sh!thole that you would willingly move to Trudeau’s Canada.

      1. And speaking of that, I saw an article in the Mexican media that talked about those who lost everything to hurricane Otis are gearing up to go to the US (illegally, of course).

      2. “Imagine your homeland being such a sh!thole that you would willingly move to Trudeau’s Canada.”

        Snort 🙂

  25. I saw at least one person wearing a mask while driving alone today and while walking on the sidewalk alone today here in Denver.

    Mass Formation Psychosis.

    Some of you may have #Noticed that immediately after Joe Rogan hosted Dr. Robert Malone as a guest to discuss Mass Formation Psychosis, Google altered its search results for that topic.

    The #Noticing will continue…

  26. KATICA ILLÉNYI – Once Upon a Time in the West – Theremin
    Feb 6, 2015
    Theremin: Katica Illényi
    Ennio Morricone: Once Upon a Time in the West
    Katica Illényi & Győr Philharmonic Orchestra
    Conducted by István Silló
    Recorded on 4 January 2010, Palace of Arts, B. Bartók National Concert Hall

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lY7sXKGZl2w

    4 minutes.

  27. Pressure Continues For Sellers In Vaughan, Richmond Hill & Markham Real Estate – Nov 1
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    41 minutes ago

    Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices for the week of Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2023.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlynOrHaR5g

    14:30. Bank of mom and dad FBs at the beginning.

  32. (I ran across this:)

    A banker is someone who magically conjures up money out of thin air and then rents it to you.

    1. Is everything still red hot cakes at Wall Street megabanks?

      If so, how come so many top bankers are cashing in their chips at the moment?

      1. Financial Times
        US banks
        Who are the Wall Street bankers selling stock like Jamie Dimon?
        The FT rounds up the US bank executives cashing in their shares
        David Solomon, Jamie Dimon and James Gorman
        Patrick Temple-West, Joshua Franklin and Stephen Gandel in New York 2 hours ago

        When JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon starts unloading his $1.2bn of stock next year, the Wall Street titan — who has never previously sold stock — will join a parade of top bankers who have cashed in some of their holdings.

        Dimon’s refusal to sell harks back to the era when his early mentor, Sandy Weill, dominated Wall Street and instigated a “blood oath” that required his management team to hold their shares until they left. JPMorgan itself has previously trumpeted the fact that Dimon had “not sold a single share of JPMorgan Chase common stock”.

        Breaking that holding streak with the sale of 1mn shares, worth about $140mn, will catapult Dimon to the top of the table for stock sales by current US bank executives, a Financial Times analysis of data from VerityData, S&P Capital IQ and regulatory filings shows — even if other top bankers have proved far more willing to sell than the boss of America’s biggest bank.
        …

  33. R u missing out on the Treasury bond rally because you can’t resist chasing ephemeral stock market gains which may never materialize?

    1. Yahoo
      Business Insider
      When Fed tightening ends, nothing performs better than 30-year Treasurys — not even the S&P 500, top economist David Rosenberg says
      Matthew Fox
      Wed, November 8, 2023 at 7:03 PM PST·2 min read
      David Rosenberg
      Known for identifying the housing market bubble in 2005, David Rosenberg is the chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research & Associates Rosenberg Research

      – 30-year US Treasury bonds should outperform the stock market as the Fed tightening cycle nears its end.

      – That’s according to top economist David Rosenberg, who called the 2008 housing crash.

      – Rosenberg said the current stock market rally “has been rather junky.”

      Bonds should outperform stocks as the Federal Reserve ends its cycle of hiking interest rates, according to top economist David Rosenberg.

      The Fed hasn’t hiked interest rates since its July meeting, and the market isn’t expecting a rate hike at the Fed’s last FOMC meeting of the year next month. That’s a big deal because historically, a five-month pause of no interest rate hikes marks the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle.

      If the Fed does keep interest rates unchanged at its December FOMC meeting, “the cycle is over. The next move would be a cut,” Rosenberg said in a Financial Post op-ed on Tuesday.

      And that’s good news for bonds, as a decline in interest rates would drive bond prices higher.

      Rosenberg explained that during a period when the Fed holds rates steady, the 30-year US Treasury significantly outperforms stocks.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-tightening-ends-nothing-performs-030333519.html

    2. Stock Market Today: Stocks Mixed, Treasury yields higher as markets regroup from Powell speech
      Martin Baccardax Nov 10, 2023 Updated 11 min ago

      U.S. equity futures traded mixed Friday, while Treasury bond yields extended their rise from yesterday’s session, as investors re-group from a hawkish message on rate hike from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and notably weak auction of benchmark 30-year bonds.

      Powell’s opening remarks to an IMF-organized event in Washington Thursday, during which he said the Fed would “not hesitate” to execute another rate hike while insisting overall policy conditions are not restrictive enough to tame inflation pressure, triggered a sharpy spike in Treasury yields and a turnaround in stock prices.

      He also stressed that the Fed would be “attentive” to price pressures given that there is a “long way to go” to return inflation to the central bank’s preferred 2% target.

      His comments, however, also came within an hour of one of the worst long bond auction on record, as the third of the three new beefed-up sales from the Treasury drew muted interest from both foreign and domestic investors, forcing the government to offer a sharply higher yield in compensation.

      The upward moves in Treasury yields, which lifted benchmark 10-year notes to 4.642% in overnight dealing and pegged 2-year paper at 5.022%, suggest both market concern for the billions in new supply that will need to be taken down over the coming months to fund record government deficits and the prospect of a final rate hike from the Fed into the start of the new year.

      Collectively, the leap also snuffed-out the longest rally on Wall Street in two years, as the higher yield backdrop forced stocks lower into the close of trading Thursday, with ripple effects spread to markets around the world.

      Asia shares fell to the lowest level in a week, with the region-wide MSCI ex-Japan index slumping 1.13% into the close of trading, while European shares retreated from their highest levels in three weeks with the Stoxx 600 benchmark falling 0.84% in early Frankfurt dealing.

      Broader concern for the strength of the global economy was also evident in weak oil prices, which are set for their third consecutive weekly decline despite the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, which is threatening to draw in Iran and extended production cuts from OPEC allies Russia and Saudi Arabia.

      Brent crude futures for January delivery, the global benchmark, were last seen trading 69 cents higher on the session at $80.70, near the lowest levels since July, while WTI contracts for December edged 64 cents higher to $76.68 per barrel.

      On Wall Street, stocks are looking to stabilize following last night’s sell-off, which was compounded by an outsized 5.5% slump for Tesla TSLA and a 4.5% pullback for drugmaker Eli Lilly LLY.

      Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 are priced for a 2 point opening bell decline while those linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are indicating a 35 point gain. The tech-focused Nasdaq is called 32 points lower.
      …
      https://www.henryherald.com/arena/thestreet/stock-market-today-stocks-mixed-treasury-yields-higher-as-markets-regroup-from-powell-speech/article_b08e8211-0e96-512c-a88e-4dcf7053c674.html

    3. The Financial Times
      3 hours ago
      European stocks fall after Fed promises to raise interest rates if necessary
      Stephanie Stacey in London

      European equities opened lower on Friday, after Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell said on Thursday that the US central bank would “not hesitate” to tighten monetary policy further if necessary.
      …

    4. A Bull Market Is Coming: 2 Cathie Wood Stocks That Could Skyrocket
      By Adria Cimino – Nov 10, 2023 at 5:30AM

      Key Points

      – Tesla, a longtime Cathie Wood favorite, is working on projects that could ensure its strength over time.

      – Teladoc Health is focused on reaching profitability, and its efforts are starting to bear fruit.

      – Motley Fool Issues Rare “All In” Buy Alert
      …
      https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/11/10/2-cathie-wood-stocks-that-may-skyrocket/

    5. Stock market today: : Asian shares fall after bond market stress hits Wall Street
      By ZIMO ZHONG
      Updated 9:22 PM PST, November 9, 2023

      HONG KONG (AP) — Asian shares retreated Friday after rising bond market yields once again weighed on Wall Street, ending a lull in wider swings in prices during a brief respite from market moving data releases.

      U.S. futures edged higher and oil prices also advanced.

      Investors in Asia are facing steady declines following a warning by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that interest rates, already at their highest level in more than two decades, might need to climb further. Benchmarks dropped more than 1% in Hong Kong and South Korea.
      …
      https://apnews.com/article/stock-market-china-rates-oil-treasury-faec1bafaf988ea7c062fb1cefff4d78

    6. The Fed took the punch bowl away when the party was already ‘pissed drunk’ and now a US recession is a sure thing, says top economist David Rosenberg
      Zahra Tayeb
      Oct 25, 2022, 6:14 AM PDT
      Jerome Powell speaks at a Fed meeting
      Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, U.S., July 27, 2022.
      Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

      – The Federal Reserve acted too late to start battling inflation by raising rates, David Rosenberg said.

      – It removed the punch bowl when everyone was already “pissed drunk,” the veteran economist said.

      – The Fed’s “full steam ahead” policy means a US recession is a sure thing, he told MarketWatch.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-interest-rate-hikes-took-punch-bowl-late-david-rosenberg-2022-10

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