thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

A Lot Of Buyers Make Lowball Offers That Get Rejected, But Then They Get A Call Back

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The coronavirus pandemic has weaved two opposing narratives in the U.S. housing market. On one hand, it has buoyed home prices amid extremely tight inventory and frenzied demand. On the other, it has pushed some homeowners to a financial brink, where they cannot keep up with their monthly mortgage payments. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that 8.22% of home loans were delinquent in the second quarter, almost double the rate from the first. This was the largest increase from the preceding quarter in the four-decade history of MBA’s delinquency survey.”

“‘I can’t help but ask myself: Are home buyers being influenced by scarcity economics, even more so than low inventory levels?’ asks Victoria Macaskill of Denver Homes. ‘As certain household products become difficult or impossible to obtain (toilet paper, Clorox wipes, calorie-free sodas, the list goes on and on), is the psychology of scarcity playing into homebuyers’ behavior? Is fear of loss driving buyers into the market, which is driving prices up unnaturally?'”

“There are signs that the current buying frenzy could be short-lived, Macaskill says. After all, housing inventory earlier this month was actually 10 percent above the same period last year, and ‘I am seeing an uptick in calls from sellers looking to sell while the market is peaking.'”

“Just as American Financing and the homeowners it helped found a way to better themselves amid a harrowing pandemic economy, another part of the mortgage industry fared much worse. The number of Coloradans who didn’t pay their mortgages in July spiked to near record levels, according to new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Hardest hit were Federal Housing Administration loans, which are designed for low- to moderate-income households. ‘The delinquency rate has risen, and the major reason for it is unemployment,’ said Marina Walsh, the MBA’s vice president of industry research. ‘If people don’t have jobs, they can’t make their mortgage payment.'”

“Matthew Leprino, a Realtor in Denver, said that two weeks ago, he put a client’s downtown loft on the market that a few months ago ‘would have sold in a heartbeat because of the demand.’ After a week, only one prospective buyer had looked at it. ‘I just had a conversation with my clients and said, ‘Hey guys, the demand isn’t there right now.'”

“A number of metros in seven states are under enhanced siege by a percolating number of FHA delinquencies, according the AEI.org. In July, 17% of FHA’s approximately eight million loans were delinquent, the FHA Neighborhood Watch, which consists of loans in forbearance, reported. Furthermore, also during the month, 10.5% of FHA’s approximately eight million loans were seriously delinquent.”

“In April, not only did the share of loans that became delinquent outpaced anything experienced during the Great Recession, it’s the highest rate on record in 21 years, according to CoreLogic’s data. During the month, 3.4% of mortgages went from current to 30 days past due–outpacing the 2% high recorded in late 2008.”

“In a year, the pandemic-induced recession could lead to massive foreclosures in Palm Beach County. The key issue that will affect mortgage foreclosures is the job market. Palm Beach County’s unemployment rate rose to 11.6% in July, up dramatically from 3.6% during the same month in 2019. ‘Judgment day is coming,’ said Gary Nagle, a Juno Beach lawyer and attorney for the Palm Beach Board of Realtors.”

“Most banks expect a banking crisis to hit in the fourth quarter of 2020, when it ‘hits the fan on the commercial side,’ said Peter Zalewski, director of acquisitions for Miami-based Brickell Ventures. ‘They’re calling it the Big Short 2.0.’ As far as houses are concerned, banks are readying to move ‘aggressively’ on the foreclosure process, an action that likely will prompt alarm among bank regulators, Zalewski said. With both commercial and residential mortgages in trouble, Zalewski said bankers could be hoping for another bank bailout, as was the case after the prior recession. ‘The lesson learned for the overall economy is once the residential goes bad, it snowballs,’ Zalewski said.”

“Prices in Manhattan ceased accelerating in late 2015; in Brooklyn it took a year or two longer. Since then, values had fallen between 10% and 20%. The COVID lockdown and its attendant ills added another 5% to 10% to those already substantial losses. Especially in the larger apartment market, many sellers want out. Many sellers, facing disappointing prospects regarding the sale of their house or apartment, don’t wish to commit funds to prepare it for sale. Whatever the issue, the price always sits at the root of the problem. The market is impartial; it delivers its verdict regardless of whether the news cheers or distresses the property owner. Every serious seller needs to listen.”

“A quarter (24.5%) of San Francisco-area home sellers cut their list prices during the four weeks ending Aug. 16, the highest share since at least 2015, when Redfin began recording this data. That’s more than double the rate from a year earlier, marking the largest annual increase in the share of active listings with price drops among the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas.”

“‘Buyers in San Francisco want fire-sale deals, and they’re not settling until they find them. They’re in no rush because there’s so much uncertainty right now—if the price isn’t right, they can just go rent a house in Lake Tahoe for a year until their employer gives concrete guidance on if or when they need to go back to the office,’ said local Redfin agent Carlos Barrientos. ‘I’m seeing a lot of buyers make lowball offers that initially get rejected, but then they get a call back from the sellers a few weeks later saying they’re willing to drop the price.'”

“A failed condominium development project in Toronto’s east end has laid bare a multimillion-dollar dispute between the sons of a former banker who fled charges of embezzlement and fraud in Iran and a family of Saudi Arabian investors. ‘What this community has ended up with is an empty lot full of grass, weeds and garbage, while these millionaires are fighting,’ said Councillor Paula Fletcher, who voted with Toronto council to approve the project’s rezoning. ‘It should never have happened,’ she said. ‘What the hell are these big money investors doing at this little corner in East York?'”

“The coronavirus pandemic is speeding up an exodus to Toronto’s suburbs and beyond. That exodus is putting pressure on Toronto’s once red-hot condo market at a time when a near-record number of units are under construction, hinting at a potential glut in the making. Two-thirds of the condo units being built in Toronto are pre-sold to investors. Condo investors, meanwhile, are getting skittish as the coronavirus pandemic has led to high unemployment, gutted the short-term rental market and sent long-term rents plunging.”

“‘There was always a concern that we were building too many small condos, but up until at least COVID-19, there was more demand for these smaller units than we could build,’ said Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand. Active condo listings in the city of Toronto have tripled since February, with inventory at its highest point since 2015.”

“In markets like London and Dubai, prices were already trading at a discount across the board. ‘We’ve seen 20% off because of Brexit, and I think possibly 10% off post-Covid,’ said Martin Bikhit, managing director of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Kay & Company in London. ‘The market here is still very, very price sensitive. There’s clearly demand for single-family houses, but you have to price it correctly or you won’t get people to engage.'”

“Dubai has seen similar discounts driven by excess supply built in advance of the now-postponed Expo 2020, but newfound demand for villas in the last several months has slowed the price drops. ‘Prices have been adjusting for two or three years; I’d say about a 20% reduction,’ said Dounia Fadi, chief operating officer of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Gulf Properties.”

“Johor has the highest number of serviced apartment overhang units in Malaysia as of last year and the first quarter of 2020 (1Q 2020). Data showed the state recorded 32% of serviced apartment existing units in 2019 and 1Q 2020. Selangor came second with 29% in the same corresponding period, followed by Kuala Lumpur with 27%. Napic data showed there was a dramatic increase in serviced apartments in these areas in 2018, with extensive annual growth of 78.84%, compared to 2.2% growth of residential high-rise properties.”

“There were several factors which contributed to the problem of overhang, said the centre, including economic uncertainties, weak market sentiment and poor planning by developers. ‘However, the main issue of overhang could be traced to oversupply of houses that exceed the demand and supply factor as well as local market absorptivity,’ it stated.”

“The Reserve Bank of Australia is warning a 40 per cent fall in house prices is ‘plausible’ as coronavirus pushes up unemployment to 1990s levels. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, Australia already had the world’s highest household debt levels after Switzerland. A surge in unemployment to double-digit levels unseen since 1994, as a result of from coronavirus trading restrictions, is set to force struggling home borrowers to sell.”

“The paper overlooked how Australian wages growth had been stuck at below-average levels for the past seven years. Digital Finance Analytics principal Martin North, an economist, said house prices would likely to dive as struggling home borrowers who had lost their job were forced to sell – causing the property market to be flooded with distressed sales.”

“While the Reserve Bank has expressed concern about house prices, Mr North criticised the paper for downplaying the risk of high household debt levels – taking into account what borrowers owed on their mortgage, credit cards and personal loans. ‘It is all about spin. This is not going to magically sort itself out,’ he said. ‘We’re in the foothills of a crisis – the crisis is going to continue for two or three years, unemployment will rise.'”

“Don’t expect a pay raise or bonus. No color printing. Turn off the lights when leaving the office. Travel less. These are part of a 90-point directive the government of Heilongjiang in China’s far north-east gave its employees in May, as part of cutbacks to free up money to fight the coronavirus and support the economy. Officials were also instructed to cut spending on pens, paper, scissors and glue. Purchases of new official cars are forbidden.”

“The rustbelt province, plagued by an aging population and dim growth prospects, expects a fiscal shortfall of at least 20 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) in 2020, or about 16% of local revenue last year. The fiscal stress is ‘extremely prominent,’ the government said. Heilongjiang’s belt-tightening gives a glimpse of the predicament faced by local authorities across the country. The coronavirus has paralyzed the economy, hitting already shrinking tax revenue but increasing demands to spend on everything from payroll subsidies to consumption vouchers and virus control.”

“‘Local governments are financially squeezed at both ends,’ said Betty Wang, a senior economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd in Hong Kong. ‘The virus has affected economic growth and government income, while restoring the economy requires more spending.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 185 Comments

  1. ‘two weeks ago, he put a client’s downtown loft on the market that a few months ago ‘would have sold in a heartbeat because of the demand.’ After a week, only one prospective buyer had looked at it. ‘I just had a conversation with my clients and said, ‘Hey guys, the demand isn’t there right now’

    Wa? But UHS red-hot? Hotcakes!

  2. ‘Buyers in San Francisco want fire-sale deals, and they’re not settling until they find them…I’m seeing a lot of buyers make lowball offers that initially get rejected, but then they get a call back from the sellers a few weeks later saying they’re willing to drop the price’

    Eat yer crowz Thornberg.

    1. San Francisco and New York have unique issues. I’m not seeing similar issues outside some of these major cities. Artificially low interest rates seem to be doing their job until they stop, but nobody knows when that is. Biden election might be one trigger.

        1. I keep waiting and waiting for the “Coeur D’ Alene, ID housing prices cratering” post. Can you work on that one. I’m ready.

      2. Unique issues???

        EVERY long term controlled democrat city driven into bankruptcy, insane public unions, out of control crime, massive corruption and high taxes.

        Now add in supporting and encouraging looters and rioters and destroying their own economies/tax base with crazy fiat lockdown proclamations.

        1. Most of those dem controlled cities were never great places to live (at least in the last 50 years), so their prices never went that high. Basically, they won’t be happy until they make every city a shithole and force everyone out of the suburbs to live there.

          1. There’s more crow than Chris Thornberg and friends could eat over their future lifetimes in Democrat-controlled cities with collapsing real estate bubbles.

          2. It’s a hard crash. Run for your lives!

            A Quarter of San Francisco Home Sellers Are Dropping Their Prices, the Highest Rate on Record
            San Francisco has seen a greater increase in price drops than any other U.S. metro, with the share of sellers slashing prices more than doubling from a year ago as the pandemic drives homebuyers out of the Bay Area
            Redfin Logo (PRNewsfoto/Redfin)
            News provided by
            Redfin
            Aug 27, 2020, 09:05 ET

            SEATTLE, Aug. 27, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — (NASDAQ: RDFN) — A quarter (24.5%) of San Francisco-area home sellers cut their list prices during the four weeks ending August 16, the highest share since at least 2015, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s more than double the rate from a year earlier, marking the largest annual increase in the share of active listings with price drops among the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas.

            San Francisco’s price-drop rate has held steady at above 24% in late summer, clocking in at 24.1% during the most recent period in Redfin’s data—the four weeks ending Aug. 23.

            San Francisco was one of just 11 of the top 50 metros that experienced an increase in the share of listings that cut prices, rising to 24.1% from 11.4% a year earlier. Chicago, Philadelphia and New York were among the 10 other places where the rate of price drops rose from the prior year during the four weeks ending Aug. 23.
            …

          3. The Financial Times
            Coronavirus business Update 30 days complimentary
            North American prime property
            Leaving San Francisco: will Covid-19 spark an exodus?
            Locals fed up with lockdown life and sky-high property prices are swapping the Bay Area for rural locations in California — and beyond
            © Whitney Lawson / Gallery Stock — Lake Tahoe
            Patrick McGee
            9 hours ago

            Christine Curtin and her boyfriend Cooper Lees had already been looking for a Bay Area escape plan when the pandemic hit, forcing both of them to stay home in a cramped 700 square foot apartment most of the day.

            “I was working at the kitchen table which was three feet from the desk that he was working at,” says Curtin, who works at a start-up. “We had no air conditioning, we were so hot and it was miserable.”

            Even misery costs thousands of dollars a month in the Bay Area. Lees, a production engineer at Facebook, says they were “living in a tiny little apartment in Mansion Land” — the border between Menlo Park and Atherton, America’s most expensive zip code with a median home price above $7m, according to PropertyShark.

            Today they are relaxing in their new 2,100 square foot, four-bedroom house in Lake Tahoe — an upmarket vacation spot three hours north-east of San Francisco known for its state parks, ski resorts and beaches.

            “Our mortgage payments are the same as what we were paying in rent,” Curtin says. But how their lifestyle has changed. On a typical day they shut their laptops at 5pm and pop out the backdoor to a hiking trail that leads out to Van Sickle National Bi-State Park, a vast 700-acre playground for mountain bikers, horse riders and trail-runners.

            A rush of Bay Area professionals have followed them, as companies such as Facebook, Square, Twitter and Salesforce encourage people to plan on working remotely into the summer of 2021. Meanwhile, the median sales price for homes in South Lake Tahoe is up a “striking” 20 per cent from a year ago, says Zillow economist Jeff Tucker.
            …

        2. Hold on there 2banana! Those are peaceful protestors. Ignore the fire and smoke in the background.

  3. ‘No color printing. Turn off the lights when leaving the office. Travel less…Officials were also instructed to cut spending on pens, paper, scissors and glue’

    How the mighty have fallen.

    1. and the Chinese don’t have to deal with public union goons making an overtimed spiked $200,000 pension and retiring at age 55.

    2. LOL! I just saw an article that claims China’s eCONonmy grew 10% last quarter. Yet they have to ration pens and paper.

        1. I forget what they reported in the first quarter, but whatever it was, I’m sure that was also a lie.

      2. “…Yet they have to ration pens and paper….”

        Don’t forget the glue.

        Quick thinking on that one, management. That will be a big money saver.

        Trying to figure out what glue would even be used for in a typical office? Anyone? Office furniture made out of Popsicle sticks?

  4. ‘In April, not only did the share of loans that became delinquent outpaced anything experienced during the Great Recession, it’s the highest rate on record in 21 years…During the month, 3.4% of mortgages went from current to 30 days past due–outpacing the 2% high recorded in late 2008’

    Yeah, and the REIC will have you believe FOMO. These “narratives” are horse-sh$t.

    ‘Most banks expect a banking crisis to hit in the fourth quarter of 2020, when it ‘hits the fan on the commercial side,’ said Peter Zalewski, director of acquisitions for Miami-based Brickell Ventures. ‘They’re calling it the Big Short 2.0.’ As far as houses are concerned, banks are readying to move ‘aggressively’ on the foreclosure process, an action that likely will prompt alarm among bank regulators, Zalewski said. With both commercial and residential mortgages in trouble, Zalewski said bankers could be hoping for another bank bailout, as was the case after the prior recession. ‘The lesson learned for the overall economy is once the residential goes bad, it snowballs’

    The foreclosure biz is getting ready. Don’t be fooled.

  5. Bothell, WA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Vancouver, BC And Seattle Housing Markets Post Double Digit Price Declines In 2018 And 2019

    https://www.zillow.com/bothell-wa/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As one broker conceded, “Everyone in our business lawyered up due to all the mortgage and appraisal fraud.”

  6. ‘Hardest hit were Federal Housing Administration loans, which are designed for low- to moderate-income households’

    There’s the subprime these ass-hats insist doesn’t exist.

    ‘‘The delinquency rate has risen, and the major reason for it is unemployment…If people don’t have jobs, they can’t make their mortgage payment’

    Well Marina I can show you posts indicating FHA loans were going down last year. And you know it. The 2016 and on FHA defaults exceeded the last decade numbers for the first time. From the DS News link:

    ‘A cocktail of factors place them at pronounced risk. They include, a large FHA portfolio containing a high percentage of delinquent loans (>17%) or seriously delinquent loans (>10%); these percentages include loans in forbearance; and an FHA share of all purchase loans in 2019 >15%.’

    This is important: they are flagging 2019 purchases. Guess why?

    ‘There reportedly were 1,363,753 delinquent loans. Among FHA foreclosure rates for top 169 metro areas, the 10 most profoundly threatened by a mounting number of FHA delinquencies were Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Georgia, leading the way with 52,865. Following were Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX, 46.025; Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA, 22,788; Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD, 21,078; San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, 16,764; Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL, 16,643; and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, 16,153’

      1. Sounds like it’s turning into a Dutch auction site. Good way to move overpriced tulip bulbs when the guys willing to pay absurd wishing prices suddenly disappear.

  8. It seems way too early in the game to make this assessment.

    Bank of England governor says quantitative easing works best when done ‘big and fast’ in response to crises
    Last Updated: Aug. 28, 2020 at 9:33 a.m. ET
    First Published: Aug. 28, 2020 at 9:18 a.m. ET
    By Steve Goldstein
    Pedestrians wearing face masks pass the Bank of England in London on March 11. Matt Dunham/Associated Press

    The head of the Bank of England told a gathering of central bankers on Friday that quantitative easing has worked during the COVID-19 pandemic, as he said bond purchases work best when done “big and fast.”

    “Measuring this effect precisely is of course hard, since we cannot easily identify what the counterfactual would have been in the absence of QE. But QE clearly acted to break a dangerous risk of transmission from severe market stress to the macroeconomy, by avoiding a sharp tightening in financial conditions and thus an increase in effective interest rates,” said Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, at the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole economic symposium.

    He also explained why the Bank of England in June moved less aggressively with a new round of bond purchases.
    …

    1. The head of the Bank of England told a gathering of central bankers on Friday that quantitative easing has worked during the COVID-19 pandemic, as he said bond purchases work best when done “big and fast.”

      These f**kfaces failed last time, so they decided to do the same thing but bigger. One trick ponies.

  9. Four Las Vegas valley cities ranked among top 10 most financially-stressed

    ‘Four cities in the Las Vegas Valley were ranked among the top ten: Las Vegas, Paradise, North Las Vegas, and Spring Valley. Henderson just barely missed the top 10 list, being ranked number 11.’

    ‘According to the report, Clack County cities have the highest unemployment rate in the entire study, at 29% and they also rank among the worst 25 for divorce rate.’

    ‘Along with unemployment, the report shows that about 16% of Clark County households have experienced recent food insufficiency. The report measures food insecurity, divorce rate, change in median household income, the percentage of households living below the poverty line, what percentage is severely-burdened by housing, and what percentage avoided seeing a doctor because of the cost.’

    ‘While this is a major change from last year, southern Nevada still showed some signs of struggling in the 2019 report on financial stress. In this previous report, Las Vegas was ranked 20th among struggling U.S. cities, while Henderson was tied for 24th with Detroit, Michigan.’

    https://news3lv.com/news/local/report-four-cities-in-las-vegas-valley-ranked-among-top-10-most-financially-stressed

    But these REIC dogs will look you right in the face and say LV is red-hot.

      1. This layoff effects about one-fourth of their employees. I consider this to be great news in that these pukes will be in dire need of money and I am in the position of supplying it.

        The money I will be supplying belongs to somebody else but, hey.

        Oh, and the risks? What risks? Bahahaha … as I just said, the money belongs to somebody else hence so do the risks.

        Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

          1. I won’t lend when it raining, when it is raining is when they get soaked. The soaking and the desperation it causes afterwards is what will prep them to accept the ruinous terms that I will offer them.

            There are two econimic extremes that I enjoy expoliting when doing my lending: One extreme is when everyone is doing well and will willingly delve into a life of economic slavery and the other extreme is when everything goes to sh1t and everyone is forced into a life of economic slavery.

            In either case I win.

          2. The good life for my customers would be the life that is lived between these two extremes but people cannot live there because they have been manipulated by our mass media to alway want more; No matter how good they have it they will always want more. Always.

            This is where I come in. You want more? Here, sign this and more is what you will get. This creates the first extreme as denoted above. The second extreme is caused by the first extreme and follows the first extreme.

            I hate it when people decide to live in the middle, between these two extremes, because this is the spot where they do not need my presence forever implanted in their lives. But, thankfully, most are too stupid to understand this.

          3. To bottom line what I just said, those people who CHOOSE to live beyond their means or are FORCED to live beyond their means are the people who allow my life to be lived so easily. As for the people who live their lives within their means? Not so much.

          5. “The good life for my customers would be the life that is lived between these two extremes…”

            AKA deadbeats

        2. Have the shows reopened yet? Got a shirttail relation in one of the Cirques and I’m afraid to ask.

      2. The marxist governor of Nevada killed the golden goose.

        Just like the NBA and NFL racist thugs.

        You are ENTERTAINMENT. Nothing more.

        No one needs ENTERTAINMENT. No one wants to be lectured to while paying for ENTERTAINMENT.

        And the entertainment industry is HIGHLY competitive.

        You have hotels in the desert. You run up and down a court/field chasing a ball.

        You have no idea how good you have it.

        Dumbazz mutherf+ckers.

  10. ‘Two-thirds of the condo units being built in Toronto are pre-sold to investors. Condo investors, meanwhile, are getting skittish as the coronavirus pandemic has led to high unemployment, gutted the short-term rental market and sent long-term rents plunging’

    Some reports say 20,000 units in Toronto on the way – this year – some say it’s tens of thousands more than that.

    ‘There was always a concern that we were building too many small condos, but up until at least COVID-19, there was more demand for these smaller units than we could build’

    It was phony demand Shaun. A bunch of these “investors” were cash flow negative (ie speculators) prior to the virus, and in the STR “empire” thing. Now they are all fooked.

    1. “Now they are all fooked.”

      Swimming naked in the path of an incoming tsunami is never a good idea.

      You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.

      — Uncle Warren Buffett

      1. Any swimmer can find out who is swimming naked during the day just by putting on goggles & swimming underwater.

    2. Not sure that i totally believe the site completely. But they claim that Condo prices are now above 20 years of rent. When my dad owned rentals – we worked on the price=100 monthly rent. This means that it has gone up to 240

      “Zoocasa surveyed 35 neighbourhoods across the city in order to determine exactly how expensive it is to live in the 6ix.

      According to the report, the average price of a Toronto condo right now is $661,458. This means an average monthly lease is around $2,501.”

      “When comparing that to the “price-to-rent ratio” Zoocasa states that if you actually want to buy a place in the city, you would need to save up 22 years worth of rent.

      So if you’re looking to purchase, you might want to start saving now.

      In fact, based on their findings, Zoocasa concluded that renting a condo might actually be of more value right now than buying. ”

      “Overall, renting a condo apartment may currently offer more value than purchasing one in the majority of Toronto neighbourhoods.”

      ———-

      https://www.narcity.com/real-estate/ca/on/toronto/toronto-condo-prices-are-now-equal-to-22-years-of-rent?al_applink_data=%7B%22target_url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fwww.narcity.com%5C%2Freal-estate%5C%2Fca%5C%2Fon%5C%2Ftoronto%5C%2Ftoronto-condo-prices-are-now-equal-to-22-years-of-rent%22%2C%22extras%22%3A%7B%22fb_app_id%22%3A1468563456738953%7D%2C%22referer_app_link%22%3A%7B%22url%22%3A%22fb%3A%5C%2F%5C%2F%5C%2F%3Fapp_id%3D1468563456738953%22%2C%22app_name%22%3A%22Facebook%22%7D%7D&fbclid=IwAR2rf2p5B1Va1avd-MGMCXL7N4nQNlTbqEvyNhaLfZl93QhjadpSiX3Br4E

  12. ‘Prices have been adjusting for two or three years; I’d say about a 20% reduction’

    It’s been sinking like a turd in a well since peaking in 2014 Dounia. (London too). And I’d say you’ve been off 15-20% every single year since.

  13. “With both commercial and residential mortgages in trouble, Zalewski said bankers could be hoping for another bank bailout, as was the case after the prior recession. ‘The lesson learned for the overall economy is once the residential goes bad, it snowballs,’ Zalewski said.”

    Bahahahahahaha … capitalize the profits, socialize the losses.

    Whatever happens to the loans I wrote does not concern me because no matter how worthless they turn out to be I still get to keep my hefty fees.

    Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    1. Don’t forget your bailouts. You get to not only keep those, but can use them to snap up foreclosure inventory at fire sale prices. This will not only help prevent home equity losses, but will also save the children. God’s work must be done!

  14. https://www.wsj.com/articles/kyle-rittenhouse-who-faces-charges-in-kenosha-shooting-due-in-court-11598624032

    ‘KENOSHA, Wis.—Prosecutors charged the 17-year-old accused of opening fire on protesters late Tuesday with killing two people.’

    I’ve watched some video from this and didn’t see one protestor. This was rioting mob.

    ‘The Kenosha County District Attorney on Thursday laid out six counts against Kyle Rittenhouse in the deaths of Joseph Rosenbaum and Anthony Huber, the attempted killing of Gaige Grosskreutz’

    He could have killed this last guy and didn’t. He shot the gun out of his hand though, just as he was aiming it at Kyle on the ground.

    ‘The complaint against Mr. Rittenhouse details what can be seen in video footage along with eyewitness accounts. It alleges that Mr. Rosenbaum tried to engage the teen, who ran away and was then followed by Mr. Rosenbaum. At some point, Mr. Rosenbaum throws a plastic bag at Mr. Rittenhouse but doesn’t hit him.’

    This guy was seen in video that night acting like the deranged pedophile felon that he is. Or was. There’s also video indications shots were fired prior to Kyle blowing his head off.

    ‘Prosecutors then cite another video showing Mr. Rittenhouse running, as people yell about the shooting and chase him. Mr. Rittenhouse trips and falls to the ground, firing at Mr. Huber, who is holding a skateboard and is trying to grab his gun, the complaint alleges.’

    This guy clearly grabbed his gun and then smashed him over the head with the skateboard. See ya Huber!

    ‘Mr. Rittenhouse then also fires upon an approaching Mr. Grosskreutz, who is hit in the right arm and appears to be holding a handgun as he is shot, the complaint alleges’

    It was clearly a handgun, which a felon isn’t supposed to possess. All three “victims” were felons, BTW. Oh and Gaige’s buddy said later on social media he regrets “not killing the kid.”

    1. The “kid” took an assault rifle across state lines to a community he had no ties to. That’s not protecting what’s yours. That’s hunting. Sometimes hunts do wrong.

      1. 1. An assault rifle is a selective fire rifle that can be selected for fully automatic fire. Oh sh!t – you don’t know what you are talking about.

        2. The looters, rioters, arsonists and murders traveled across state lines to a community they had no ties to destroy/burn things and assault people they didn’t like. Unfortunately for them, this wasn’t Portland or Minneapolis.

        1. The looters, rioters, arsonists and murders traveled across state lines to a community they had no ties to destroy/burn things and assault people they didn’t like.

          The same happened in Denver, many busloads of out of towners arrived. Fortunately, the Denver PD showed up and tear gassed them, night after night. Eventually the rioters gave up and left.

          I recall a 9News reporter wailing that he couldn’t believe what the police were doing. How dare they not allow the rioters to burn the city down!?

          1. A bunch of the out-of-town Soros scum who descended on Kenosha found someone had slashed their tires when they went to leave. As the Marxist rent-a-mobs hit more towns and cities, locals need to get more organized in their response, not just disabling the BLM-Antifa vehicles, but ensuring the rioters and looters never bother their community again.

            “Now youse can’t leave.” (A Bronx Tale)

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnpE-hGNVj8

      3. I’ll second this: ‘you don’t know what you are talking about’.

        It looks like a clear case of self defense. Lots to learn: have the right weapon, know your rights and the law. Don’t be the second one to get off a shot. Keep a cool head. Bonus points for scratching two and a half scumbags.

        Speaking of chickens coming home to roost:

        ‘The father of a teenager with special needs who was gunned down in Seattle’s so-called autonomous zone filed lawsuits this week against the city, county, and state, seeking $1 billion from each. Lorenzo Anderson, 19, was killed on June 20 around 2:20 a.m.’

        ‘City officials tolerated the zone, known as “CHOP,” for weeks before shutting it down on July 1 following the murders of Anderson and another black man.’

        ‘Evan Oshan of Oshan & Associates is representing Horace Anderson, Lorenzo Anderson’s father. He told The Epoch Times that the lawlessness of the zone made the death foreseeable.’

        “There was no safety, there was no security. This whole region was completely abandoned and this special needs kid, basically, was put into a dangerous situation,” he said. “It was a predictable, preventable death.”

        ‘The state abandoned the zone “without a working plan to provide essential services, creating a danger,” one of the lawsuits says. After the shooting, the state “failed to provide medical assistance to Lorenzo Anderson despite knowing it was urgently needed,” it added. “He died.”

        ‘Video footage showed police officers turned away from the zone by angry demonstrators, some of whom were armed.’

        ‘Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, both Democrats, rebuffed offers of assistance from the federal government. At one point, Durkan claimed in a CNN appearance that the occupation could lead to a “summer of love.”

        ‘The situation developed the way it did because of “our elected officials lacking the political willpower to enforce the rule of law,” Mike Solan, president of the Seattle Police Officers Guild, a police union, told The Epoch Times in June.’

        https://www.theepochtimes.com/father-of-teen-killed-in-seattle-chop-zone-sues-for-3-billion_3479777.html

        1. I cannot belive they are trying to vilify this kid who was genuinely helping to prevent the violence that the police were unwilling or unable to put down. I also hope that he is fully cleared of all charges and that he wins a massive lawsuit against the “news” agencies who have been supporting and encouraging violent riots for THREE FREAKING MONTHS, while slandering the people who finally stand up to these mobs.

          What in the hell did these Democrats (and I’ve been a very active, long-time Democrat for years…and will be voting for Trump in 2020) think was going to happen with all of the chaos they’ve been fomenting?

          1. Hi California Renter,

            In my view, the current Dem party isn’t like the Dem Party of the past. They have been hijacked by forces and they aren’t even coherent anymore.

          2. What in the hell did these Democrats (and I’ve been a very active, long-time Democrat for years…and will be voting for Trump in 2020) think was going to happen with all of the chaos they’ve been fomenting?

            I think they are trying to pin the blame on the Bad Orange Man, and expecting the everyone will drop to their knees, vote Democrat while whimpering “please, make it stop”

          3. Hiya CA Renter, I’m the same way. I used be somewhat liberal — longtime HBBers will confirm. In reality, I’m a Meritocrat, but I crossed over to the dark side on the day Trump was elected. Dems have been slowly going nuts for decades. (I still have some lib tendencies.)

          4. Police letting their unofficial auxiliaries do their dirty works is right out of the standard dictator playbook. From German Brownshirts, to South and Central American death squads, to the good old KKK. When societies go down this road it never ends well.

          5. This guy would be dead if he hadn’t defended himself. It’s not that hard to understand. It wasn’t a should I shouldn’t I situation.

            It’s an old neocon game to claim it’s always 1939. Hitler is dead, long time ago. Give it up. And I know you just pick up these lame things on the internet and regurgitate them here, BTW. Try to be original.

          6. From German Brownshirts

            Personally, I think of Antifa and BLM as Red Guards, but brownshirts works too.

          7. Hi Oxide and Housing Wizard (and all the rest)! Yes, I remember you as being somewhat liberal, Oxide. I’ve only had time to pop in every now and then, so haven’t been able to keep up as much.

            I think that many of us have shifted over because, as you’ve stated, the current Dem Party has absolutely nothing in common with the Dem Party that I used to belong to. They’ve abandoned the American middle/working classes in exchange for Wall Street, tech oligarchs, globalists, foreign nationals, identitarians, and criminals. That’s not a party I can relate to anymore.

          2. My youngest son raised an interesting point: why would a supposed “fascist”, who is expected to forcibly cling to the White House if he lost the election, proclaim that he strongly supports the 2nd Amendment? Isn’t that the first thing any power-hungry person would eliminate?

          3. I think the theory is that all current gun owners are also nazis. Therefore 2A is ok until the “wrong” people arm themselves.

          4. why would a …

            Don’t expect leftists to be rational. They are counting on the 24/7 media propaganda machine to get enough people to accept the Narrative,

        3. Thank you for the update on Mr. Anderson. More power to him. His Hannity interview was incredible, for anyone who hasn’t seen it:

          https://www.foxnews.com/media/horace-lorenzo-anderson-father-chop-shooting-victim

          “Anderson Sr. broke down in tears as he recalled learning of his son’s death.
          ‘The only way I found out was just two of his friends, just two friends that just happened to be up there and they came and told me,’ he said… ‘The police department, they never came … Someone should’ve came and knocked on my door and … should’ve been, like, coming to talk to me and let me know about my son. To this day, I really don’t know nothing. I’m still here sitting. I don’t know.’”

        4. ‘The father of a teenager with special needs who was gunned down in Seattle’s so-called autonomous zone filed lawsuits this week against the city, county, and state, seeking $1 billion from each. Lorenzo Anderson, 19, was killed on June 20 around 2:20 a.m.’

          It’s about time the Democrat officials who have been BLM-Antifa accessories and enablers are held accountable for their malfeasance and dereliction of duty. A huge civil judgement would start getting the attention of every other Democrat administration that has been given the BLM-Antifa scum free rein to run amok.

          In the upcoming trial of Kyle Rittenhouse, he is going to be defended by a crack legal team that is going to DESTROY the feckless Democrat DA of Kenosha and his trumped-up charges against a minor who faced lethal attacks by multiple assailants, per the usual BLM-Antifa playbook, but turned the tables by skillfully and courageously defending himself. I suspect Lin Wood is similarly going to turn the tables on the crap weasel DA, as no jury who sees the video is going to buy the sham “1st degree murder” attempted railroading.

          https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/08/27/kyle-rittenhouse-defended-fightback-foundation-kenosha-shooting-l-lin-wood-raising-money-gofundme/5650147002/

      5. RIOTSMan Shot in the Arm by Kyle Rittenhouse Says His Only Regret Was “Not Killing the Kid”

        Published 1 min ago
        28 August, 2020
        Paul Joseph Watson

        The Black Lives Matter protester in Kenosha who was shot in the arm by Kyle Rittenhouse says that his only regret was “not killing the kid,” a statement that will do wonders to help Rittenhouse’s self-defense argument.

        Gaige Grosskreutz, who was caught on camera pointing a gun at Rittenhouse before the teenager show him in the arm, made the comments after doctors were able to save the limb from being amputated.

        According to his friend Jacob Marshall, who is pictured with Grosskreutz, the BLM supporter’s “only regret was not killing the kid and hesitating to pull the gun before emptying the entire mag into him.”

        In the Facebook post, Marshall also admits that Grosskreutz “drew his weapon” before he was shot by Rittenhouse.

        “Well this literally shows INTENT TO KILL, so Kyle Rittenhouse’s defense lawyer just got an early Christmas present,” tweeted Mike Cernovich.

        https://summit.news/2020/08/28/man-shot-in-the-arm-by-kyle-rittenhouse-says-his-only-regret-was-not-killing-the-kid/

        1. The Black Lives Matter protester in Kenosha who was shot in the arm by Kyle Rittenhouse says that his only regret was “not killing the kid,” a statement that will do wonders to help Rittenhouse’s self-defense argument.

          Yup, that’s going to work out really nicely in court.

          1. While I think the whole “Qanon” conspiracy theory is ridiculous, I can understand why so many people think it’s credible. The more you start looking hard at these Democrat elites and their radical left Red Guards, the more likely you are to uncover symbols of Satanism as well as evidence of pedophillia, i.e. Rosenbaum, the revolutionary Trotskyist that was shot in the head, was a convicted child rapist.

          2. The more you start looking hard at these Democrat elites

            Hollywood, the music industry. Hello, Billie Eilish!

        3. I read that about killing the kid yesterday afternoon. And the WSJ runs this hit piece today saying he “appeared to have a handgun”?

      6. The “kid” took an assault rifle across state lines to a community he had no ties to. That’s not protecting what’s yours.

        That community was being invaded night after night by a thug army of well-funded Marxist thugs bent on rioting, looting, wanton destruction, and assault of anyone they deemed to be a “fascist.” The cops had shown themselves to be manifestly incapable of securing the community or protecting public or private property. The kid was altruistic enough to come to the aid of besieged businesses that had been left to the tender mercies of the Soros scum. When a violent pedo felon who had been trying to incite violence threw what witnesses have said was a Molotov cocktail at the kid, then lunged to grab his weapons, he shot the scumbag in the head – a justified and appropriate response. Then when he was headed to the police lines to turn himself in, and was pursued by a mob yelling “Get his ass!” – the hunters, not the hunted – he defended himself with lethal force only after being assaulted by two violent felons: one who gave him a flying kick while he was down on the ground, then tried to wrest his rifle away from him, the other who had drawn a pistol (which as a felon he was barred from possessing, but no Democrat DA will ever prosecute him) and aimed it at the kid’s head, but was shot in the arm by his intended victim which very effectively changed his plans, and attitude.

        This kid took out three literal violent felons, all in legitimate self-defense. He deserves a medal for doing what the authorities failed to do: show the Marxist rabble running amok in that community that if they want to play the thug, there might be consequences.

      7. In FL and perhaps much of the US, arson is a forcible assault and one can use physical force to stop arson, rape, kidnapping, etc. This kid was protecting property in a neighborhood not that was not far from his home. Many of the rioters came from much further away. Not sure it matters as others should be doing the same. See rooftop Koreans during the LA Riots.

        He was absolutely allowed to carry that AR-15 and bring it across state lines. Nothing prohibited him from doing so. It’s not an assault rifle which as 2banana pointed out is a select fire full auto (which should also be legal but we can thank Ronny Reagan for that one). I sincerely hope that if a violent mob comes to your local area, that there are people willing to resist forcefully. They will continue to escalate if they are not prohibited from doing otherwise as history has shown.

        You could also guarantee that if people were rioting who had political proclivities slightly to the right of Stalin or Mao, they would be infiltrated by the FBI and most likely arrested by now and splattered across the MSM as the lead story for weeks. See Waco, Ruby Ridge and Ammon Bundy to name a few.

        1. they would be infiltrated by the FBI the FBI for years now has been pursuing other possibilities, like hamstringing a duly elected President in the performance of his duties. The FBI deserves to be abolished, all pensions cancelled, and a new federal force set up with prejudice against having previous members of the old force join.

      1. Seems like the criminals are getting the upper hand.

        I think that’s a temporary situation until the gloves come off. Right now they are still being coddled.

        1. Yep. Right now Democrat judicial authorities, especially the ones installed by Soros, are coddling the criminals while throwing the book at any citizen, especially white males, who exercise their 2nd Amendment rights to protect themselves or others. But if law and order completely breaks down, the same law that fails to protect citizens from the vermin will fail to protect the thugs and their enablers and accessories from armed, vengeful citizens.

      3. How many criminal$ does it take to grab x10+ Trillion$ U$Dollar$?

        ($eems you’ve takin’ yer eye’$ off.thee.prize)

    3. Kyle’s gonna walk.

      Hopefully with millions of dollars from defamation lawsuits.

      Real journalists have really f*d themselves on this narrative.

      1. Isn’t there some charge for illegally transporting a weapon over state lines, or similar? He’ll probably be guilty of that. But I think he’ll walk for the shootings.

        1. Unless the weapon is illegal in one of the states he traveled through he didn’t do anything illegal. People are really having a hard time with this whole rule of law thing. Our system isn’t designed to care about feelings.

        2. Not sure the kid was old enough to legally be carrying a firearm, although I doubt that the simple act of transporting it from one state to another was illegal. Rest assured the Democrat DA will try to crucify him on every possible charge, as Democrats and their globalist puppet masters have a pathological hatred for any armed citizen who defends themselves from criminals, especially Marxist rabble.

          Meanwhile, there is zero possibility that the convicted felon and member of the radical-left People’s Revolutionary Movement who tried to execute the kid but was a little slow on the draw will face charges for illegally possessing a firearm, or attempted murder. By the way, why is there a People’s Revolutionary Movement when we already have a far-left Democrat Party?

          https://www.tmj4.com/news/local-news/west-allis-man-shot-during-kenosha-protests-recovers-in-milwaukee-hospital

          Just before midnight Tuesday, gunshots rang to in Kenosha. National photojournalist Alex Lourie was there when it happened, working.

          “People were like, ‘That’s the shooter, that’s the shooter.’ I see a guy in a green T-shirt with an AR style rifle booking it down the street,” said Lourie.

          Video shows that man people said was the shooter fall. People started running towards him, then another two shots rang out.

          One of those bullets hit Grosskreutz in the arm. Lourie said he saw Grosskreutz was carrying a gun. He also saw he was volunteering as a medic earlier that night.

        3. I’ll concede the kid should be charged with littering. I mean, look at the garbage he left in the street.

      2. Eye’m gonna pin yer responses on this state.of.all.knowing predictions.

        This 17 yer “Kid”, his “wanna.bee.a.hero!” life is in for some “eye opening” .developments.

        His driving around in 1998 used police Crown.Victorian intercepted with a side.mirror search.light is gonna bee on hold for awhile.

        ? … Who got ’em the AR.15 … What was “thee.kid” protecting?

        Song: “…teach, yer children well …”

        (of course, iffin’ yer knot a parent, life looks a tad different perhap$)

        1. You can’t type out a sentence with words and punctuation. I hear Reddit is really nice this time of year. They even have an upvote button for all the TDS circlejerks.

      1. What’s even more remarkable is what a single bullet can do to a thug’s intentions and attitude. Revolutionary People’s Movement Comrade Grosskreutz went from emulating a Bolshevik Chekist executioner liquidating a kulak, to a screaming little soy boy bitch running away and bawling out for a medic.

      3. IIUC, if the bullet goes through the bone and takes bone with it, it’s very difficult to put that bone back together in any useful fashion. This is why there were so many amputations during the Civil War.

          1. infected wounds Civil War docs could do very little about deep wound infections besides amputate. Antibiotics changed all that.

    5. I’m impressed with how a 17 year old handled himself and held off many adult men who were trying to do harm to him.

        1. Convicted felons and career criminals looking to loot and destroy.

          Antifa’s traditional cohort of prematurely balding, pencil necked soibois aren’t up to the task, so they’re recruiting thugs now: “You mean you’ll pay me to loot and arson? Where do I sign up?”

      2. That young man had incredible discipline and exceptional handling skills. He performed better than most seasoned law enforcement officers would do. He only hit those who were actively attacking him (all felons), and obviously tried to do the right thing throughout the incident, including an attempt to turn himself in, which the cops totally ignored.

        He’s a straight-up hero.

        1. Watching the video, I thought he showed remarkable restraint under the circumstances, especially when he took out the two who were directly assaulting him. In particular, once he shot the dirtbag “medic” who had a pistol in his hand in the arm, he would’ve been fully justified in double-tapping him center mass to “neutralize the threat” in cop-speak. He didn’t. Similarly, he drew down on a would-be attacker clearly intent on inflicting serious bodily harm, but when the scumbag put his hands up and backed away, the kid disengaged and starting walking away. From the video, he had a whole mob chasing him; many of what the MSM called “bystanders” clearly had weapons in their hands and the intent to use them. Considering how amped-up the kid must’ve been, he should be commended for using only the deadly force needed to stop the assault against him.

        2. Wowser, Ye got it all figured out! Yer much quicker than Monk & Colombo & Manix all combined!

      3. Yeah, the young man has moxie. Given the same frantic situation how many (police too) would empty a magazine into the crowd?

        1. empty a magazine into the crowd? I am beginning to think it is just a matter of time before someone does just that – from a concealed position. The US is deranged enough for some to move that way. Best to stay away from all crowds for the foreseeable future.

          1. I am beginning to think it is just a matter of time before someone does just that – from a concealed position.

            So what really happened in Las Vegas anyway?

    6. Any reasonably intelligent person watching this charade play out is going to intuitively grasp three things:

      1. Democrats are completely incapable of providing public security or enforcing law and order.

      2. While Democrats are unable and unwilling to provide law and order, they will bring the full weight of the system to bear against any members of the public who step up to protect themselves or others, or who act to fill the security void left by Democrat fecklessness, incompetence, and collusion with their fellow Bolsheviks in the BLM-Antifa rent-a-mobs.

      3. Globalist media outlets have evolved from being enthusiastic cheerleaders for the forces of anarchy and destruction, to being their accessories in the attempted lynching of any resolute citizen – to include 17 year old boys – who finally says, “Enough!”

      1. +1

        And we renters with money respond in the best legal way possible: the withholding of any potential property tax or sales tax revenue to municipalities that not only tolerate, but promote this lawlessness.

        I no longer spend money in Denver. I will make money in Denver, and spend it in Arapahoe, Jefferson, Douglas Counties.

        NO GIBS FOR YOU, DENVER!

      2. resolute citizen – to include 17 year old boys

        Respectful of your sentiment, but he should be called a man.

        My dad was a Marine on Iwo Jima at age 17.

        The top Democrats have been breaking the law, trying to take down the White House with criminal lies and contrivances for years. Such cannot “keep the law” for us.

    7. If you’ve watched the videos or read any of the details, you’ll find the selective discussion of the three protestors to be fascinating… the SD Tribune is the best example I’ve seen.

      “Sweet. Loving. They were the sweetest hearts, souls. I called Anthony my hippie guy. They were sweet guys.”
      https://tinyurl.com/SDTribune

      I have to wonder wth is wrong with people, did they all watch that horror movie series I skipped, the Purge, or did social media in the US turn us into the land of mob violence like we’ve seen in some other countries where they go kill somebody based on a rumor on social media. At least the young idealists are probably thinking twice about ignoring curfew and burning crap down, but it’s a shame that a curfew wasn’t enforced in the first place and that the BS/rhetoric has been encouraged to proliferate until the right/wrong set of people/place are involved in a shooting.

      1. While globalist media Real Journalists will only quote people who rhapsodize about what great humanitarians these late Red Guards were (presumably they won’t interview Mr. Rosenbaum’s child rape victim), they will beat the bushes for anyone who has anything derogatory to say about young Mr. Rittenhouse.

  15. Coeur d’Alene, ID Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Sellers Flood Market And Slash Prices Double Digits

    http://www.zillow.com/coeur-dalene-id-83814/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist said so eloquently, “liquidate whatever you’ve got to eliminate all debt and hold onto every dollar you’ve got…. You’re going to need every last one of them.”

  16. OK – this is starting to help me make sense of the on-the-ground behavior that i am seeing in Seattle and Toronto. What the heck is/was going on with certain neighbourhoods and price biding?

    People usually start looking for deals – as mentioned in Ben’s article extracts. Why are certain houses in big demand? Surely even the house-horny could wait 3-12 months for deals. Scarcity phycology (not economics) might be the answer the same way that Lysol wipes were. I had a friend that took her aunt to the supermarket at 8am (seniors only time) to get Lysol wipes for her own family use. Normally, she would not have behaved this way – but … in pandemics????

    ———-
    “‘I can’t help but ask myself: Are home buyers being influenced by scarcity economics, even more so than low inventory levels?’ asks Victoria Macaskill of Denver Homes. ‘As certain household products become difficult or impossible to obtain (toilet paper, Clorox wipes, calorie-free sodas, the list goes on and on), is the psychology of scarcity playing into homebuyers’ behavior? Is fear of loss driving buyers into the market, which is driving prices up unnaturally?’”

    1. I’m not sure which neighborhoods you are referring to, but all around here I’m seeing people that were chugging along as apartment dwellers/renters suddenly jumping into the buyers market when their previous intention was to wait a few more years or not to buy at all.

      The covid situation had changed their living circumstances – they suddenly need more space than they current have, for an office (or two) to work from home (possibly permanently they wonder), and/or they got kids who now are suddenly staying home and distance learning .. not to mention the young adult offspring that moved back in because they lost their jobs. They need moar space…

      On top of that, they see the turmoil of the country and especially the rioters occupying neighborhoods (even if they haven’t come to theirs yet) and terrorizing residents and businesses, which is piled on top of the stress caused by the homeless and crime that they already had been living with, and they decide “why the fu*k am I staying here?” and think “It’s time to get somewhere else…”

      And adding a cherry on top, they look around and listen and hear their neighbors saying similar things and decide they had better get a move on it and get their own little castle before everyone else does it first and there’s nothing left…

      So yeah, scarcity mentality combined with [2020] has jucied some markets quite a bit. But it’s a one-time shift and will burn itself out.

      1. To answer your question – re: Seattle.

        Lots of neighbourhoods north of Ballard/Freemont – All the way up to Shoreline. I just had a acquaintance overpay for a townhouse – and from their explanation – seems to be that there were walking distance to Green Lake (more than 1 mile)
        Friends are mentioning that Redmond is selling out … and maybe Bellevue

        I guess i did not understand the absolute urgency in the middle of a pandemic

        1. I guess i did not understand the absolute urgency in the middle of a pandemic

          I didn’t anticipate the way people would be panicking to get a house during this pandemic either. One maybe, just maybe could have guessed at the work from and kids at home, school from home happening, but would have still thought that people would be waiting for financial stability reasons.

          Low rates have also added to the sense of urgency – figure people are thinking that they won’t last – though the elections if nothing else.

          Refi business has been crazy, and I’ll admit we took advantage of it, refinancing Casa Spiffy again down to 2.625%. We’re in it for the long haul, and the break-even was barely over one year, so it was a no-brainier. Gotta figure lots of wanna-be buyers are expecting prices to keep rising and guessing payments can only get worse for them if they wait.

  17. Are low rates here to stay the U.S.?

    Seems like this happened in Japan, beginning around 1990. Can anyone remember what happened to their stock market over the ensuing decades?

  18. I think you have a great point about scarcity psychology being the motive behind sales. Maybe they think loans will dry up , or conditions will change so they better go for it now.

    But, God knows what the realtors are telling these buyers to create urgency.

    1. ‘what the realtors are telling these buyers’

      They’ve been pushing the FOMO thing for months, and louder every day. It makes no sense diving into a recession. (Even UHS.com said so). But neither does hoarding nickle coins.

    2. Just my opinion on what I am seeing with my Tech Co-workers to drive them to purchase a house at any cost.

      Incentive/Demand:

      1) Interest rates are at the lowest EVER in recorded time. Will they stay that way after the election? Buy Now! Will Fannie or Freddie slap on more fees? Buy Now!

      2) The requirement to work from home was very sudden. That 2 bedroom condo with a dog, cat, 2 kids now seems very small. I was on a Zoom meeting where one of the attendees was working from the kitchen table while the 4 year old was scaling a wall dangerously high and their 2 dogs were having a bark fest. We all saw it. I should have recorded it and become a YouTube sensation. More space (maybe even a McMansion) would allow someone some sort of privacy and productivity.

      3) City life ain’t what it used to be. No casual strolls to dinner, coffee, or the theater. The Covid infested parks may be open but filled with protestors and homeless tents. Might as well stop renting and move to the burbs with a large backyard.

      4) If you are in Tech, your company stock likely gives you a great 20% downpayment after 2X-3X increases. Some people have boatloads of cash. Thanks Fed! Tech has not seen huge layoffs.

      Disincentives/Low Supply

      1) Who wants to sell their comfy safe McMansion in the burbs during a raging pandemic? You may get top dollar now but after letting Covid infested people tromp through your kitchen and bedroom. Where will you go? A tent in the park? I’m not surprised supply is low.

      Low Supply + High Demand = High prices.

      When Covid 19 goes away, people will go back to the office for productivity and be able to go to restaurants, bars, and theaters again. Then things will stabilize.

      1. If you are in Tech, your company stock likely gives you a great 20% downpayment after 2X-3X increases

        Your mileage may vary. Not everyone is getting RSU’s. And they often take 4 years to fully vest, so you don’t get it all at once. Few stick around for more than 2 years anyway. I’ve seen resumes where brogrammers change jobs once a year.

        1. I agree. RSU’s aren’t given to everyone.

          However, ESPP is given to everyone. They are typically granted every 6 months to 1 year. Most people hang onto their stock for a year for long-term gains.

          As an example look at Apple stock.

          Today: 500
          1 year ago: 200
          3 years ago: 150

          If you put 10% of your salary and held for 3 years, you have a boatload of money for a down payment.

          1. Here follows the life and times of a Corporate Shill:

            It is stock options that are not provided anymore with RSUs replacing stock options.

            An example: Senior non Director level employee at eBay or PayPal can earn/buy around 50 to 60 K in stock via bonus (RSUs) + ESPP per year. Vesting after the first year in most tech companies. Imagine after year 3 or 4 you will have 3 or 4 periods of previous year stock RSUs hitting plus your maxing your 10% of salary to do ESPP because the stock is purchased at say 15% below market or the lowest price point of the preceding 4 half year periods (let that sink and consider a quickly appreciating market). The ESPP stock is immediately able to be sold unless a trading restriction is in place (earnings report period, etc).

            Google… forget it. Senior folks are easily in for 300K + with salary plus RSU stock vesting (vesting every month after the first year!).

            Amazon is a bit more of a grind where they work you like a dog for 2 years before the real stock / bonuses hit hoping you leave before then.

            The large banks don’t pay as well but are trying to compete with higher salaries and typically give bonuses if they are affiliated with WallStreet. Stock bonuses are provided at the director level if at all. ESPP may be purchased at a slight discount but often must be held for 6 months.

            Tech companies will try to provide separate advancement tracks for technical vs non-tech staff.

            Silicon Valley kids have it much better than they realize. They often will ironically protest the Military Industrial Complex even when the company they work for was funded by DARPA.

            The HR departments in Silicon Valley and other large banks are run entirely by hardcore Bolsheviks. It is disgusting. Imagine 3 tech town halls where technology is no longer mentioned but you must listen to hours of D & I (Diversity and Inclusion) speeches. Consider that the the racial makeup is already primarily non-white other than the senior management (ironically) and much of that staff is female.

          2. That artificial increase in valuation (and wealth) is due to one thing and one thing only: the Federal Reserve pumping $16 trillion in printing-press liquidity into the financial system since 2009.

          3. If you work for a FAANG, sure. But most techies don’t work for them. Most don’t even work for publicly traded firms, which is why they job hop so much: the places where they work often fold and go under.

            But in places like Silly Valley and Seattle Icould see how that might put cash into a few homebuyer’s hands.

          4. If you work for a FAANG, sure. But most techies don’t work for them. Most don’t even work for publicly traded firms…
            But in places like Silly Valley and Seattle I could see how that might put cash into a few homebuyer’s hands.

            Exactly.

            I’ve told you about my friend at Google looking to buy – It was actually his Tesla play that has him sitting on a pile of cash. His RSUs are good, but it still will take time for them to vest and add up.

            Mrs. Spiffy works for a Fortune-10 health company (not hard to guess), and like most doesn’t get any RSUs or other stock grants. Closest she can do is to partake in their ESPP. This last period that ended this summer they changed the rules to not give employees any gain that occurred during the ESPP period (price always taken at the end instead of lower of start or end). As soon as it spiked, she put a stop-loss in, and what do you know.. it already triggered and hasn’t gone back that far up.

      3. The requirement to work from home was very sudden. That 2 bedroom condo with a dog, cat, 2 kids now seems very small.

        This. You make several good points, but I’m thinking it might be longer than people think before everything goes back to Pre-2020 thinking. If ever. And I think a lot of other people are thinking the same thing.

        1. Indeed. Mrs Spiffy’s company has already extended full-time WFH through the end of 2021. I’ve been 100% WFH since 2016

          What’s happening here is that this large-scale shift to WFH (where applicable) has been a sudden, unforeseen event — not a gradual phase in with warning. So we’re seeing all the people who are affected and capable of making the change rushing out into the market at the same time.

          Once that rush plays out, the demand surge should fall off almost as suddenly as it began, dropping lower than it was at the start.

          1. I had a lawyer neighbor in San Jose that built an office in his backyard. Later, the family used it for a mother-in-law quarters. It was a great investment, IMHO.

      4. Not sure what you guys are talking about. There are plenty nice homes on the market, and they all go for a reduced price. More than that, 10X more come fresh on the market every day than close. Talking greater Seattle.

        1. More than that, 10X more come fresh on the market every day than close. Talking greater Seattle.

          Exactly. The shills up the thread are FOS.

      5. Offices do not necessarily increase productivity. People without small children at home may prefer to be away from office distractions, of which there are many.

        1. I know the ladies have an intense desire for office politics, out dressing each other, teasing the men, etc., basically stirring up trouble. It must be hell being stuck at home?

          1. I know the ladies have an intense desire for office politics, out dressing each other, teasing the men, etc., basically stirring up trouble. You left out backbiting the other women & generally acting like “mean girls”. I worked at too many hospitals where that was rampant. The ER I worked the longest term at was the polar opposite. The nurses as a group respected and cooperated with each other to a remarkable degree. My being part of that was truly a healing process.

      6. Low interest rates are useless, as they are instantly corrected by a higher house price. The figure you really want to look at is ratio of PITI to income. Before ~1990, a reasonable PITI/income was supposed to be 28% of ONE income. Now, even with the low interest rates, PITI/income is 40-50%, usually of two incomes. That’s how much prices have risen.

  19. “Quantitative easing is a gigantic confidence trick. It was promised that it would yield new investment. It has not. It was promised that it would ‘pump money into the economy’. It has not. It was also feared that printing money would lead to hyper-inflation. It has not, for the simple reason that no one gets to spend the money. It is a bookkeeping transaction between a central bank and a commercial bank. It means nothing as long as banks are told to build up their reserves (or drive up the speculative value of financial paper assets).”

    Simon Jenkins

    1. It was also feared that printing money would lead to hyper-inflation. It has not, for the simple reason that no one gets to spend the money.

      Didn’t the FedGov just spend an extra $3T? All those people who got $1000 a week spent it (even if they didn’t pay the rent). The airlines and other PPP recipients spent it.

      That said, don’t know if there has been enough spending to counter the deflationary environment we’re in. Anecdote: Was in Sam’s Club the other day and they had USDA Prime beef tenderloins for $13/lb. I remember when the Prime tenderloins were $20/lb, and Choice was $15. So there’s some real world deflation right there.

      1. Was in Sam’s Club the other day and they had USDA Prime beef tenderloins for $13/lb That has been the case for well over a year now. When the slaughterhouses were having trouble with COVID-19, those tenderloins were not available. That lasted about a month. Now they’re back, at the same price as before.

        1. That has been the case for well over a year now.

          Not in my neck of the woods. Meat prices were slowly and steadily rising. Now, Sam’s Club has all sorts of USDA Prime cuts for less than what USDA Choice was fetching before Covid.

          I suspect that there is a glut of USDA Prime as high end steakhouses have seen their biz shrink.

  20. I am waiting for Sacramento inventory to rise and prices to drop. Slow long wait because of the FED money printing and free biscuit forebearance programs.

  21. Capital One Cuts Card Limits Amid U.S. Jobless-Aid Impasse – Bloomberg
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/capital-one-cuts-card-limits-amid-u-s-impasse-on-jobless-aid?srnd=premium

    (snip)

    “Capital One Financial Corp. is cutting borrowing limits on credit cards, reining in its exposure as the U.S. reduces support for millions of unemployed Americans.

    “The adjustments, which the company said it makes from time to time, set off a swift outcry on social media. Some customers have complained in recent days their limits have been slashed by a third to two-thirds, eroding their ability to borrow in an emergency during a pandemic or potentially hurting their credit scores.”

    A nation of whining broke-assed losers.

  23. I finally wilted and ordered a new vehicle. After the FED just promised another decade of asset price inflation, I figured I might as well spend a little of my saved cash on something, in this case a depreciating asset. I hope to get zero percent financing after it shows up at the dealership. It should be about 10 weeks. This will likely be the last new vehicle I ever buy in my life.

    1. To clarify, when I say “spend a little of my saved cash,” I should have said “pledged,” because as mentioned I’m going to try to get zero percent and string the loan out as long as possible, keeping all my powder dry for something else. But I’ve locked in today’s vehicle price in the event there’s hyperinflation in a few years. I got a decent deal. Not the best, but fairly good.

    2. Manufacturers slashing new prices are making the market right now.

      Last month I bought a new 2020 Tahoe, loaded for $35k. Still too much but $15k less than 60 days ago.

      Let her rip!

      1. It was cheaper to order and buy new than anything existing on the lot or slightly used. The downside is I have to wait.

      2. I agree with the both of you that new makes sense right now rather than used. I would if I could, but I have to backstop two young adults who are not yet self supporting. Fingers crossed!

  25. 20-Year-Old Robinhood App User Dies by Suicide After Seeing Large Negative Balance: Reports
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/20-old-robinhood-app-user-004659180.html

    (snip)

    A source familiar with Robinhood’s procedures tells PEOPLE that it is possible for the app to display positive portfolio value, but negative buying power and negative cash, which are not the same as debt. This will happen if a contract to purchase shares is called one day, but the corresponding option to sell shares to cover that isn’t executed until the next trading day, and that the app notifies users of this by email or in-app notification. Despite the temporary negative display, the value of the account will still be accurately reflected in the portfolio value.

    “When he saw that $730,000 number as a negative, he thought that he had blown up his entire future,” Brewster added to Forbes.

    “It doesn’t make any sense to me. I would think that a tech company that is focused on financial transactions would have the sense to understand that they should display the number to people in a way they can decipher,” he tells PEOPLE. “The fact of the matter is this kid died over nothing. Nothing. He didn’t owe a penny… This is finance, this is people’s lives.”

  26. Are you ready for four years or more of discriminatory hiring biased against white men, in favor of women and minority candidates?

    Because the Democrats are the pro-discrimination, pro-racism party.

    1. BBC News
      US & Canada
      Obama sorry over Kamala Harris ‘good-looking’ comment
      6 April 2013
      Kamala Harris has made sex trafficking and the suffering of young prostitutes a focus of her work

      President Barack Obama has apologised to the California attorney general for remarking on her appearance at a fundraising event on Thursday.

      Mr Obama described Kamala Harris, a long-time friend, as “the best-looking attorney general in the country”.

      Ms Harris’s spokesman said she strongly supported Mr Obama but would not say whether she had accepted his apology.

      Critics have cited the remark as an example of the ongoing hurdles women face in the workplace.

      Speaking after Ms Harris at the fundraising event in California on Thursday, Mr Obama said she was “brilliant and she is dedicated and she is tough, and she is exactly what you’d want in anybody who is administering the law and making sure that everybody is getting a fair shake”.
      …

    2. Are you ready for four years or more of discriminatory hiring biased against white men, in favor of women and minority candidates?

      Makes me think of NASA’s Space Launch System, which will cost $2B per launch, if NASA’s affirmative action bunch ever get it to fly.

      1. if NASA’s affirmative action bunch ever get it to fly.
        Exactly. Diversity is our strength doncha know…

        1. I suspect that SpaceX will get its Starship into orbit before the SLS has its maiden launch. NASA swears SLS will fly next year (November), of which I am highly skeptical.

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      Business
      New Covid-19 Layoffs Make Job Reductions Permanent
      As companies brace for years of pandemic-related disruption, thousands of furloughed workers are told they won’t be coming back
      Aug. 28, 2020 6:37 pm ET

      A new wave of layoffs is washing over the U.S. as several big companies reassess staffing plans and settle in for a long period of uncertainty.

      MGM Resorts International and Stanley Black & Decker Inc. recently told some employees furloughed at the outset of the coronavirus pandemic that they wouldn’t be put back on the payroll. And companies bringing back the majority of furloughed workers, including Yelp Inc. and Cheesecake Factory Inc., are making reductions as they adjust to the new reality that many coronavirus-related closures won’t be resolved this fall.

      More fresh layoffs at big employers loom. A day after Salesforce.com Inc. posted record quarterly sales, the business-software company notified its 54,000-person workforce that 1,000 would lose their jobs later this year. Coca-Cola Co. said Friday it plans to lay off some employees and offer voluntary buyouts to about 4,000 employees in the U.S. including Puerto Rico as well as Canada. American Airlines Group Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. have said more than 53,000 workers could be affected in about a month if the airlines don’t receive another infusion of funds from the government.

      The outlook reflects an acceptance by corporate executives that they will have to contend with the pandemic and its economic fallout for a longer period than they had hoped.
      Some CEOs and other executives suggest more pain is ahead, said David Rubenstein, co-executive chairman of Carlyle Group , a private-equity firm with around $220 billion in assets under management.

      “Privately, some of them may hint that they probably won’t need as many workers as they once thought,” Mr. Rubenstein said. “They’ll have to reinvent their businesses in ways that they hadn’t done before.”
      To Read the Full Story
      Subscribe

Comments are closed.