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The Myth Of Rising Prices Has Been Completely Destroyed

A report from the Green Bay Press Gazette. “Market conditions have shown signs of improvement for Wisconsin homebuyers as the state’s busy season ends. The problem for many buyers has long been a lack of homes for sale. But there’s ongoing signs buyers in 62 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties will find more homes for sale, per WRA. Inventory in Portage County, home to Stevens Point, doubled in October, from 1.7 months to 3.4 months. Other notable inventory surges can be found in the Appleton area (59.1%), Milwaukee County (26.1%), Eau Claire (34.5%), and Dane County (16.7%). Housing markets like Madison, Milwaukee and Green Bay remain solid seller’s markets, but not quite the as intensely in sellers’ favor. ‘It’s not the same market,’ said Milly Saldarriaga, of ShoreWest Realtors in Green Bay. ‘The market is normalizing.'”

“Home prices likely won’t drop, but sellers might not get offers way above asking prices anymore, Saldarriaga said. Competition persists for properties priced below $300,000, but it’s softened a bit in higher price ranges. Right-priced homes may sell in a day or two; others may sit a little longer, said Victoria Imhoff, a real estate agent with Century 21 Ace Realty in Appleton. ‘Now this is kind of how it is,’ Imhoff said. ‘It’s important to set expectations ahead of time.'”

From Florida Today. “October’s housing numbers offered more trick than treat for Brevard County residents looking to sell their homes. According to the latest data from the Space Coast Association of Realters, closed single-family home sales were down 11.6 percent year over year. The median single family home sales price dipped a bit year over year by 1 percent. The median sales price for townhomes and condos fell 7.7 percent year over year to $300,000 compared to October 2022’s price of $325,000. It also represents a $7,000 drop month over month and a $77,000 drop since August. Brevard County’s housing inventory shot up 30.4 percent year over year to a total of a three month supply. For townhomes and condos, it’s even higher. October saw a 104.8 percent spike in the number of units on the market, padding the inventory with a 4.3 month supply — more than double October 2022’s 2.1 months. It’s also an indicator that the market has leveled out and is moving into more neutral territory — no longer a sellers’ market but not yet a buyers’ market.”

From ABC 7 News. “As we approach the start of a new year, real estate agent Aprile Osborne joined us in the ABC7 studio to share some updates on the housing inventory in Southwest Florida. Despite Southwest Florida being described as a red-hot housing market, the available housing inventory for sale is higher than it has been in several years. What advice does Aprile Osborne give to sellers during quiet periods? She advises sellers to consider taking their listings down during quiet periods to avoid devaluation.”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “Just 27 miles east of San Francisco, the town of Alamo is home to many grand estates set upon rolling hills overlooking views of Diablo Valley. It is in this bucolic, wealthy enclave that tech billionaire David Duffield established Fieldhaven, a 21-acre estate that took years and over $135 million to build. Adjusting for inflation, the property would cost about $250 million to construct today, or you can buy it now for $35 million.”

Bisnow Washington DC. “Office has become a four-letter word for many real estate lenders, and that sentiment is now bleeding into the healthcare sector. The presence of office space within many healthcare properties is creating concern among some lenders who want to reduce their exposure to the asset class, panelists said. Traditional lenders are so averse to the office market that any deal remotely tied to the struggling asset class could be blacklisted, panelists said. ‘Some of the big national lenders in our space are saying if it’s over 5% office, we’re not going to lend on it,’ JLL Capital Markets Managing Director Brannan Knott said. ‘The office vacancy rate in D.C. is the highest it’s ever been,’ Colliers Executive Vice President Adam Schindler said.”

The Texas Tribune. “Texas office workers are back in person more than their counterparts across the country — but a lot of the state’s urban office space is still sitting empty. The Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas have office vacancy rates that range from 21% to 25%. But whether the glut of space at a time when developers are continuing to construct more office buildings foreshadows a brewing economic storm remains to be seen. In Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston, the rise of remote work exacerbated already-high vacancy rates brought on by overbuilding in the ‘80s and ‘90s that still casts a shadow on the current office market. ‘Dallas, like many Texas cities, built beautiful, high-rise, shiny buildings that were enormous,’ said Jennifer Scripps, who leads the economic development group Downtown Dallas Inc. ‘They weren’t full when they opened and they never filled up.'”

“And owners of office buildings with lots of vacancy have few options to turn things around, said Harold Hunt, a research economist who studies commercial real estate at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. They can keep the building as-is and deal with diminishing returns or upgrade it in order to compete with glitzier office properties, Hunt said. Owners can also sell the building or demolish it. ‘What do you do with a million and a half square feet if nobody wants it anymore?’ Hunt said. ‘Everybody just sort of scratches their head.'”

Real Estate News Exchange. “Canadian real estate investors have traditionally been quite active south of the border and five executives with inside knowledge of the American market shared their views. ‘Development just doesn’t make sense anywhere in the States right now unless you’re in some super-specialty niches,’ said Grosvenor-Property Americas CEO Steve O’Connell. His company develops, manages and invests in residential, office and retail properties in San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Seattle, Vancouver, Chicago and Los Angeles.”

“Alfonso Munk is the chief investment officer for the Americas for Hines, a privately owned global real estate investment, development and management firm with $94.6 billion of assets under management. ‘There’s an issue with demand, there’s no question, but the real issue in the U.S. in office is supply,’ Munk noted. ‘Before COVID and before the advent of working from home, we had a massive oversupply of office space in the U.S. The capital markets are not seeing it and banks don’t want to finance it, which is an opportunity for tactical people like us,’ he said of the asset class. ‘But there are B-, C- and D- assets in the office space, because of the tendency of U.S. investors to oversupply everything, that are completely useless. That stuff, we wouldn’t touch and I don’t think anybody would.'”

“Munk said many Sun Belt markets don’t have the infrastructure to absorb the increased demand. He expects cities such as Miami will end up with an oversupply of multifamily and office assets because they built too quickly. One-quarter of Austin’s apartment stock has been built in the past five years, according to O’Connell, who called it a ‘staggering’ amount of supply. ‘The October rent growth numbers came out and Austin, which is like the poster child for the Sun Belt from my perspective, had negative 5.6 per cent rental growth in that reporting compared to a one per cent U.S. average,’ said O’Connell. ‘The sheer volume of supply that’s coming, which is a result of the lack of barriers to entry that exists in the Sun Belt, is going to have a pretty material impact on potential rent growth for those cities in the next few years.'”

The Indo-Canadian Voice. “The NDP said on Tuesday that at a panel discussion with fellow developers in 2020, BC United MLA Renee Merrifield talked about how developers in Kelowna ‘work well together’ and are ‘careful not to oversupply certain markets.’ Merrifield is the owner and co-CEO of Troika Developments. Renee Merrifield: ‘Well, I would say that one of the factors is sitting on your screen. The Urban Development Institute and the developers and suppliers and contractors and consultants that form this association have always been incredibly collaborative. I always say we have one of the best sandboxes in all of Canada. You know, we work well together. We talk to each other. We figure out, you know, who’s who in the zoo. We’re careful not to oversupply certain markets. You know, we share ideas and we listen to one another. And that is unique. You know, right now, Troika is existing in 13 different municipalities and I can say we don’t have that same collaboration in any of the other municipalities that we work in. So this definitely is part of our secret sauce and part of our advantage. Absolutely.'”

“The NDP pointed out that on Tuesday morning, Merrifield raised a point of privilege claiming that she did not make comments about restricting housing supply. MLA Ravi Parmar said: ‘It’s extremely concerning to hear a BCU MLA talk about building less housing during a housing shortage. We need more supply of all kinds of housing, not less. But Kevin Falcon has consistently opposed David Eby’s actions to increase housing supply. He’s still looking out for the speculators and companies profiting off high housing prices – not the British Columbians trying to afford a place to live.'”

CTV News in Canada. “Police in the Town of the Blue Mountains are investigating a suspicious fire at a housing development. Police responded to a fire at 190 Crosswinds Boulevard on November 30 just before 6 a.m. Thursday, where officers and fire crews found several homes under construction that had been engulfed in flames. On Saturday, fire crews and police responded to another fire just before 11 p.m. in the same area. Police said several houses under construction were engulfed in flames again.”

The Daily Post in the UK. “House prices in Wales are forecast to flatline in 2024, property analysts believe. The market is expected to keep falling in the first six months of the year before recovering as lower interest rates kick in. This year’s anticipated property crash hasn’t materialised but house prices are now lower almost everywhere in Wales than at the start of 2023, regardless of property type. Prices have been tumbling since the September 2022 budget and in some places well before then. In the year to September, house prices in Wrexham dived 6.1% to level at £196,000, the second biggest fall in Wales behind Blaenau Gwent (-11.2%). On Anglesey, property values were down 4.9% to average £236,000, according to the Office for National Statistics.”

“Designed to address housing shortages in Gwynedd, opponents fear Article 4 will cause house prices to drop across the board, affecting residents as well as second and holiday homeowners. A resident claimed values are in freefall already as the market is squeezed by high mortgage rates and a raft of local price controls. With valuations of his house dropping ‘more than £90,000’ in the past year, he slammed the local authority on social media. ‘They are destroying the investment people have worked for most of their lives for,’ he said. ‘Look at the house market sites – all houses have dropped over £60k and more. My advice to young people now is… it’s not worth buying a house in Gwynedd.'”

“A woman claimed her house was recently valued at £85,000 less than she was expecting. ‘And mine is the cheaper end of the scale,’ she said. ‘Now I’d love to be magnanimous about this and think … never mind, at least young people will be able to live their dream life near the sea like I couldn’t. But sadly I won’t be able to buy what I want now, so I’ll end up working harder for longer.'”

From Nikkei Asia. “China’s real estate crisis enters a critical phase on Monday, when a Hong Kong court is expected to hand down a decision on the liquidation of China Evergrande Group, once the country’s largest developer. The long slump in the industry, which accounts for about 30% of China’s gross domestic product, is casting a long shadow over the economy and society as a whole and looks set to continue. ‘The myth of rising prices has been completely destroyed,’ said Huang Li, a real estate consultant in the southeastern Chinese city of Guangzhou, using a pseudonym. ‘No one will buy at the current prices.'”

“The city of Huizhou is a bedroom community of Hong Kong’s neighbor Shenzhen. In early November, when a prospective buyer came to see a new condominium on the market, a salesperson whispered: ‘We’re selling it for 12,000 yuan ($1,698) per square meter, a 25% discount, but we’ll secretly drop it to 11,000 yuan.’ The price of the condominium was further reduced to a bit over 10,000 yuan per square meter, nearly 40% lower than the original price. Even with big price cuts, real estate agents can ease their immediate cash flow problems if they can sell properties sitting on their books.”

“The prolonged stress in the real estate sector has left many building projects in limbo. A skyscraper, towering against the blue sky, disappeared from view as the sun set. The 86-story landmark, sitting in prime location in the northeastern Chinese city of Dalian, is unlit at night. Local residents say it is like a ghost. The building is complete, but, ‘There’s no talk of any tenant applications,’ according to a local real estate broker. The main door was rusted, and it was rare to see people nearby even in the daytime.”

“An extreme case can be seen in the city of Hegang in the northeastern province of Heilongjiang, bordering Russia. As the resources in this coal mining town ran out, it began losing population. By the end of 2021, the city had suffered a de facto financial collapse. The real estate sector crashed, and Hegang became known as ‘the city where condos prices are like Chinese cabbage.'”

“At the end of October, the main street of a building materials market in Guangzhou is lined with hundreds of specialty stores selling materials, tools, curtains and other items. But it is deserted. Some stores have their shutters closed. ‘There’s no one here. I’ve worked in this industry for over 20 years, and this is the worst,’ said the manager of store that specializes in urinals. The same is true for Peng Xiaojuan, who has run a ceiling board store in Dongguan, Guangdong province, for nearly 10 years. ‘Houses aren’t selling, and no one is renovating them. I can’t make any money.’ To increase her revenue, she has begun working as a salesperson for a local tile company.”

“On the Chinese internet, a phrase mocking the industry is circulating: ‘The whale dies and sinks into the sea,’ meaning that when the big players in real estate die, they take the smaller ones down with them.”

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This Post Has 98 Comments

  2. ‘What advice does Aprile Osborne give to sellers during quiet periods? She advises sellers to consider taking their listings down during quiet periods to avoid devaluation’

    There’s not a transcript but the video is worth watching. It’s Fort Myers I believe.

    1. Francis Soyer’s advice: never listen to anyone with an unnecessary “e” in their first name.

  3. ‘BC United MLA Renee Merrifield talked about how developers in Kelowna ‘work well together’ and are ‘careful not to oversupply certain markets.’ Merrifield is the owner and co-CEO of Troika Developments. Renee Merrifield: ‘Well, I would say that one of the factors is sitting on your screen. The Urban Development Institute and the developers and suppliers and contractors and consultants that form this association have always been incredibly collaborative. I always say we have one of the best sandboxes in all of Canada. You know, we work well together. We talk to each other. We figure out, you know, who’s who in the zoo. We’re careful not to oversupply certain markets. You know, we share ideas and we listen to one another. And that is unique. You know, right now, Troika is existing in 13 different municipalities and I can say we don’t have that same collaboration in any of the other municipalities that we work in. So this definitely is part of our secret sauce and part of our advantage. Absolutely’

    I’ve posted many examples of how the British Columbia REIC is the crookedest in K-da.

    ‘Police in the Town of the Blue Mountains are investigating a suspicious fire at a housing development. Police responded to a fire at 190 Crosswinds Boulevard on November 30 just before 6 a.m. Thursday, where officers and fire crews found several homes under construction that had been engulfed in flames. On Saturday, fire crews and police responded to another fire just before 11 p.m. in the same area’

    I’ve lost count of the new construction fires up there.

  4. ‘Before COVID and before the advent of working from home, we had a massive oversupply of office space in the U.S. The capital markets are not seeing it and banks don’t want to finance it, which is an opportunity for tactical people like us,’ he said of the asset class. ‘But there are B-, C- and D- assets in the office space, because of the tendency of U.S. investors to oversupply everything, that are completely useless. That stuff, we wouldn’t touch and I don’t think anybody would’

    We burn our igloos if we can’t sell em!

  5. ‘‘There’s no one here. I’ve worked in this industry for over 20 years, and this is the worst,’ said the manager of store that specializes in urinals’

    I was watching a ADV China video yesterday and they said that even in Beijing, you can’t flush toilet paper. Like the sh$t holes in Mexico.

  6. ‘It’s not the same market,’ said Milly Saldarriaga, of ShoreWest Realtors in Green Bay. ‘The market is normalizing.’”

    You keep using that word “normalizing,” lying realtors (redundant). I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

  7. October saw a 104.8 percent spike in the number of units on the market, padding the inventory with a 4.3 month supply — more than double October 2022’s 2.1 months.

    Is that a lot?

  8. What advice does Aprile Osborne give to sellers during quiet periods? She advises sellers to consider taking their listings down during quiet periods to avoid devaluation.”

    Worst “advice” ever. This is as good as it gets, greedheads. The real economy, as opposed to the rigged Wall Street casino, is in free-fall. Wages are stagnant and people’s purchasing power is being destroyed by inflation that is far higher than what our falsified, Soviet-style CPI data says it is. But go ahead and trust a lying realtor (redundant) for “advice,” and see where it gets you.

  9. The Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas have office vacancy rates that range from 21% to 25%.

    Gosh, I’m no economics major like AOC, but even applying my Common Core maff skills, I don’t see how those numbers pencil out.

  10. Russia Today — Dozens of US soldiers want to overthrow government – Pentagon (12/2/2023):

    “Extremism in the ranks remains a troubling trend for the US military, as evidenced by the fact that 78 service members were suspected of being advocates for the overthrow of their own government, an annual Pentagon report has revealed.

    The report, released this week, also showed that 44 service members were suspected of supporting or engaging in terrorism in the past year. Overall, the 183 allegations of extremism across all branches of America’s military marked a 25% increase from the previous year’s level.

    Under Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s push to root out extremism in the military, the Pentagon issued new rules in December 2021 advising troops on banned activities, ranging from advocating terrorism to “liking” extremist views on social media. He also ordered stronger screening during the recruiting process and the creation of an investigative unit to identify potential extremists in the ranks.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/588407-pentagon-report-shows-rise-in-extremism-among-troops/

    “Extremism” = refusal to die for bankers’ wars.

    1. ““Extremism” = refusal to die for bankers’ wars.”

      Perhaps they should simply leave the military? Oh, that’s right, they want the steady pay and juicy benefits (including the lifetime veteran benefits).

  11. The capital markets are not seeing it and banks don’t want to finance it, which is an opportunity for tactical people like us,’ he said of the asset class.

    Which of us are going to break the news to this Bozo how screwed he & his “tactical people” are?

  12. You know, we share ideas and we listen to one another. And that is unique.

    Better start sharing ideas about which food banks to patronize, and which intersections make for the most lucrative panhandling stations.

  13. The Guardian — Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels (12/3/2023):

    “The president of Cop28, Sultan Al Jaber, has claimed there is “no science” indicating that a phase-out of fossil fuels is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5C, the Guardian and the Centre for Climate Reporting can reveal.

    Al Jaber also said a phase-out of fossil fuels would not allow sustainable development “unless you want to take the world back into caves”.

    The comments were “incredibly concerning” and “verging on climate denial”, scientists said, and they were at odds with the position of the UN secretary general, António Guterres.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels

    Back into caves?

    Note that the standard of living of the Parasite Class will not be affected, only yours. The Parasite Class, the money changers, the money handlers, the money counters, the tax collectors, the war profiteers, and all of the associated non-producing bureaucracy.

    The Parasite Class. If your alleged “occupation” is derived from Usury or from profiting from War and Death, you are the Parasite Class.

    1. Related article.

      Washington Post — Companies made big climate pledges. Now they are balking on delivering (12/3/2023):

      “The United States gives generous subsidies to companies that pursue clean technologies but has no national climate law with emissions targets that industries must meet. It does not tax carbon, which many economists say is the most efficient and practical way to nudge businesses toward cutting their carbon footprint. And U.S. financial regulators — amid corporate pushback — have been unable to agree on rules that would simply require companies to report the emissions created by their operations and supply chains.

      That leaves companies setting climate targets on their own terms. Experts say many of them announced that they would align with the Paris agreement without a clear plan for getting there or a full understanding of the trade-offs involved.

      The lack of action by companies that have made climate pledges is particularly consequential as scientists warn that there is no time for delay, with a global emergency that demands emissions be cut now rather than in a decade or two down the road.”

      https://archive.is/daXD5

      Translation of the above: implement communist one world government NOW.

      1. but has no national climate law with emissions targets that industries must meet

        And yet, from what I have read, we have done more to reduce emissions than anyone else.

  14. The Washington Post?

    Yes, the Washington Post. This piece authored by Robert Kagan, who is married to Victoria Nuland. It’s the Washington Post.

    Washington Post — A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending (11/30/2023):

    https://archive.is/8h7of

    No article excerpt provided, Archive link provided because we read the Washington Post for FREE.

    Robert Kagan, we have been living in a dictatorship since January 2021, and an unelected dictatorship, at that.

    An illegitimate, occupation government, that has no actual authority to govern.

    That’s who Robert Kagan and Victoria Nuland labor in service of.

    1. Related article.

      New York Times — Trump’s Defense to Charge That He’s Anti-Democratic? Accuse Biden of It (12/2/2023):

      “Mr. Trump’s accusations against Mr. Biden, which he referenced repeatedly throughout his speech, veered toward the conspiratorial. He claimed the president and his allies were seeking to control Americans’ speech, their behavior on social media and their purchases of cars and dishwashers.

      Without evidence, he accused Mr. Biden of being behind a nationwide effort to get Mr. Trump removed from the ballot in several states. And, as he has before, he claimed, again without evidence, that Mr. Biden was the mastermind behind the four criminal cases against him.

      Here, too, Mr. Trump conjured a nefarious-sounding presidential conspiracy, one with dark ramifications for ordinary Americans, not just for the former president being prosecuted. Mr. Biden and his allies “think they can do whatever they want,” Mr. Trump said — “break any law, tell any lie, ruin any life, trash any norm, and get away with anything they want. Anything they want.”

      Having said that he would use the Justice Department to “go after” the Biden family, on Saturday, he swore that he would “investigate every Marxist prosecutor in America for their illegal, racist-in-reverse enforcement of the law.”

      “You should go into some of these places, and we’ve got to watch those votes when they come in,” Mr. Trump said. “When they’re being, you know, shoved around in wheelbarrows and dumped on the floor and everyone’s saying, ‘What’s going on?’

      “We’re like a third-world nation,” he added.

      https://archive.is/Vanzm

      Sounds about right.

    2. ‘A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending’

      Wa happened to my 81 million voters Bob?

  16. Could the CCP’s pandemic shutdown of their economy have negatively impacted Chinese citizens’ ability to repay their household debts?

    I am guessing the answer is “yes”. And that Chinese households will get the blame for government-mandated economic collapse.

    1. Financial Times
      Chinese economy
      Chinese borrowers default in record numbers as economic crisis deepens
      More than 8mn people blacklisted by authorities after missed payments on mortgages and business loans
      A man wears a protective mask as he walks by the skyline of Beijing’s central business district
      Under Chinese law, defaulters are blocked from a range of economic activities, such as purchasing aeroplane tickets and making mobile phone payments, representing a drag on the economy
      Sun Yu in Beijing December 2 2023

      Defaults by Chinese borrowers have surged to a record high since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, highlighting the depth of the country’s economic downturn and the obstacles to a full recovery.

      A total of 8.54mn people, most of them between the ages of 18 and 59, are officially blacklisted by authorities after missing payments on everything from home mortgages to business loans, according to local courts.

      That figure, equivalent to about 1 per cent of working-age Chinese adults, is up from 5.7mn defaulters in early 2020, as pandemic lockdowns and other restrictions hobbled economic growth and gutted household incomes.

      The soaring number of defaulters will add to the difficulty of shoring up consumer confidence in China, the world’s second largest economy and a crucial source of global demand. It also throws a spotlight on the country’s lack of personal bankruptcy laws that might soften the financial and social impact of soaring debt.

      Under Chinese law, blacklisted defaulters are blocked from a range of economic activities, including purchasing aeroplane tickets and making payments through mobile apps such as Alipay and WeChat Pay, representing a further drag on an economy plagued by a property sector slowdown and lagging consumer confidence. The blacklisting process is triggered after a borrower is sued by creditors, such as banks, and then misses a subsequent payment deadline.

      “The runaway increase in defaulters is a product of not only cyclical but also structural problems,” said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. “The situation may get worse before it gets better.”
      …

    2. Speculating in real estate during a mania may make you feel wealthy until the point of bubble collapse, at which point you may lose everything.

      1. Financial Times
        Chinese society
        The human cost of China’s property crisis
        One of the world’s biggest real estate collapses has hurt buyers, households and families across the country
        Thomas Hale in Shanghai and Gloria Li and Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong November 27 2023

        A swath of unfinished apartment blocks across China, indebted buyers uncertain if they will ever move into their new homes and anger at the loss of their deposits — the impact of China’s property crisis has been immense.

        The 2021 default of Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, and dozens of its peers ushered in a new era for China’s property sector.

        Evergrande, which faces the threat of liquidation, embodies the turmoil of a sector that accounts for roughly a quarter of China’s economic activity and is the most important component of household wealth.

        While China’s residential property prices were up almost a third in the first quarter of this year compared with a decade ago, according to data compiled by the Bank for International Settlements, they fell 5 per cent between the third quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of this year.

        Developers, whose fortunes are intertwined with the local governments that sell them land and the investors who back them, have struggled to recover amid a wider lack of confidence. The stories of four individuals who invested in the Chinese property market illustrate the wide impact of the crisis.
        Anhui

        Zhang, a 42-year-old make-up artist from the city of Hefei in Anhui province, had hoped to move into her new flat with her elderly parents in August. But two years after she paid a deposit for a 667 sq ft flat costing Rmb580,000 ($80,000), it is still not finished and she has not been able to get her deposit back from Evergrande.
        Hefei skyline

        “I emptied my savings to cover the deposit and downpayment of a total of Rmb350,000” for the unfinished flat, she said. “I don’t dare tell my parents the news. If I did, they would be worried sick.”

        Zhang, who did not want her full name to be published, works three jobs — in nail art, wedding make-up and theatres — to meet the mortgage on her current apartment. She now regrets not taking rumours of Evergrande’s troubles seriously. “How can the [government] allow it to collapse? How can this happen?” she said.

        “I paid my part, and [Evergrande] is not delivering,” she added. “How can I not be emotional? I can’t sleep at night. I have lost my hair. I can’t even take a proper break.”

        She is not the only one affected — about a quarter of the roughly 200 apartments in the residential project have been sold. Local authorities told her buyers had remitted about Rmb27mn to Evergrande for that site alone.

        Evergrande did not respond to requests for comment.

        In recent weeks, Zhang and other buyers have staged protests at local government offices and Evergrande’s sales offices, including a sit-in outside the district government’s office building. Armed police showed up and made them leave, she said.

        Later, she received phone calls from officials telling her not to organise any more protests. “I didn’t get what I paid for. And they [government officials] told me to bottle up my emotions,” said Zhang. “Couldn’t I cry a little about the grievance I have?”
        …

  17. The most unwanted tenants these days in New York City buildings are electric bikes.

    Owners are incentivized to proactively be punitive against the renter on these batteries because they’re frankly scared of losing their insurance coverage if it’s found out that they have renters [who] are bringing these batteries into the buildings,” Martin said.

    https://gothamist.com/news/nyc-e-bike-owners-wonder-where-to-store-them-as-landlords-fear-battery-fires

    1. The stock market’s ‘buy’ signal is dead as the monster rally surges closer to overbought levels, Bank of America warns
      Jennifer Sor Dec 1, 2023, 9:18 AM PST

      – The “buy” signal flashing in stocks is dead, according to Bank of America.

      – The bank pointed to its Bull & Bear contrarian indicator, which is in neutral territory.

      – That’s because stocks are nearing overbought levels, with 62% of global indexes passing key thresholds.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-markets-buy-signal-dead-011834222.html

    2. Sacramento Bee
      California’s revenue decline is reminiscent of the Great Recession, new report says
      Andrew Sheeler, Lindsey Holden
      Fri, December 1, 2023 at 11:30 AM PST·5 min read

      In a grim sign for the state, California is projected to see a $58 billion shortfall in revenue collection over the course of three fiscal years, from 2022-23 to 2024-25, according to a report released Friday by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office.

      The LAO said money from postponed tax payments came in far below projection.

      “The impact of recent economic weakness and last year’s financial market distress on state revenues has become clearer. The postponed payments came in much weaker than anticipated,” the LAO report read.
      …
      https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-revenue-decline-reminiscent-great-193044537.html

      1. ‘“This has slowed economic activity in a number of ways. For example, home sales are down by about half, largely because the monthly mortgage to purchase a typical California home has gone from $3,500 to $5,400,” the LAO said.’

        Sounds like California housing prices will have to drop by about 1-3500/5400 = 35% to restore affordability.

        Is 35% alot?

        1. “I guess this means no $1.2 million slavery reparation payments?”

          Maybe someone figured out that chasing out the last of California’s wealthy white families with no slave owners in their family histories could blow an even bigger hole in the state budget?

          1. It all makes sense when you realize that it’s not about the money, but rather, hating and punishing white people. If you stay and pay, that’s OK. If they leave, fewer white people are good too. The budget thing is just another day the legislators will have to hustle to pay the bills, just like the voters that vote in the legislators. Chicago is run like this now too. The mayor before election never paid his water bills or credit cards (was sued in court) or even his parking tickets despite making six figures as a union rep and elected county commissioner. At the Same time. And if the white peoples leave, we’ll, good riddance to them.

      4. ‘What do you do with a million and a half square feet if nobody wants it anymore?’ Hunt said.
        But there are B-, C- and D- assets in the office space, because of the tendency of U.S. investors to oversupply everything, that are completely useless. That stuff, we wouldn’t touch and I don’t think anybody would.’”

        I am sure CA has some of these properties that no one wants. I would argue that some of these properties will actually have negative value when the dust settles. Properties will huge tax bills will need to be reappraised and, when their value goes to “zero;” The tax collected is going to crash. Some freebee programs in many states are going to have to be cut or huge raises in taxes will be required.

  19. ” ….take the world back to caves.
    The entirely false narrative of co2 causing doomsday Climate Change is so absurd and ridiculous.
    Plants emit co2, animals emit co2, humans emit co2, fossil fuels emit co2, in the cycle of life.
    So, these Climate Change Fraudsters choose co2 as the culprit in doomsday Climate Change.
    Co2 is as necessary as oxygen in the cycle of life, but they had to fabricate something that would attack humans, animals, crops, fuels, for their take over of planet.
    Humans, animals , crops , fuel energy , is causing doomsday Climate Change, so Private party RICH Parties will create a One World Order in which they partner with governments to enslave humanity, control resources and consumption, based on this fraud.
    There will be no dispute to their fake narratives or free speech, because they are censoring dispute and free speech, and data proving their fraud.
    Can’t dispute the “safe and effective vaccines” and the overwhelming data that they were fake killer vaccines, killing millions and injuring even more.
    Their Great Narratives solutions and counter measures would kill off a great amount of humans and enslave humanity, and probably reduce humanity to a cave existence, if they were really implemented.
    But, trust their Science regarding fake vaccines, and co2 being the culprit in doomsday Climate Change.
    The evidence shows that this was a pre= planned power grab take over of the world by Private Party Entities, wanting to depopulate, take over world resources, control consumption and enslave humanity by a One World Order dictorship, justified by them saying they are saving the planet from certain doom
    It’s either disease x, or Climate Change, take a killer vaccine or be deprived and enslaved by these psychopaths in their One World Order dictorship
    plan.

    1. “….Plants emit co2, animals emit co2, humans emit co2, fossil fuels emit co2, in the cycle of life….”

      And active Volcanoes emit CO2, and sulfur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen sulfide, carbon monoxide, hydrogen chloride, hydrogen fluoride. [1]

      There are more than 1500 active volcanoes on Earth. Around 50–70 volcanoes erupt every year. There are 82 volcanoes in Europe. [1]

      States with active volcanoes: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming. [1]

      So are we going to outlaw Volcanoes?

      [1] Per Google

      1. Don’t forget about the underground coal seam fires. Estimates of their annual CO2 production vary from 3% to <1% of total global production.

    2. Politicians gonna menace the populace with hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.

      “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.”

      – H.L. Mencken, In Defense of Women

      1. It’s not only politicians who do that. It’s the MO for anyone who wants to manipulate people for some reason.

        1. That’s true. I even saw my kids use those kind of tactics against each other in their early years.

          It’s just that politicians are all in all the time with the scare tactics.

  21. … billionaire built a mention in a 21-acre land not far from San Francisco , spending $135 million and now it is for sale for $35 million that is the reality of the fraud that is happening in US, 1 % owned everything and shitty houses built in Orange County in 60’s and 70’s that are for sale million $$$ that nobody will have money to buy… 😉

    1. Eventually rampant real estate speculation will backfire on the speculators. Even Uncle Warren may have to eat some losses when history’s greatest ever real estate bubble deflates.

  22. Get your physical $50 bills before the Fed phases out paper money in favor of FedCoin, the central bank’s newfangled cryptocurrency.

    1. Futuremash | On December 1, 2023
      US Government Prints 756,096,000 $50 Bills As Americans Begin Hoarding Physical Cash: Report
      By Alex Richardson
      US Government Prints 756,096,000 $50 Bills As Americans Begin Hoarding Physical Cash: Report
      The Federal Reserve Bank is printing a record number of $50 bills as Americans feel the urge to hold physical cash.

      The Bureau of Engraving and Printing, the agency in charge of money printing operations in the US, created 756.09 million new $50 bills in 2022, reports CNN.

      The pile of fresh cash is worth about $37.8 billion.

      According to the San Francisco Fed, the printing is due to a rise in demand for physical cash in the US, despite a decreasing use of cash for payments.

      Citing results from the Fed’s Diary survey, which attempts to understand consumer payment habits in the US, the Fed finds that the demand for physical cash is likely due to economic uncertainty following the pandemic.

      “While the average number of cash payments remained below pre-pandemic levels, aggregate demand for cash continued to increase. As of October 2022, the value of currency in circulation passed $2.23 trillion, a 28 percent increase compared to February 2020, but with slower growth since 2021.
      …
      https://dailyhodl.com/2023/12/01/us-government-prints-756096000-50-bills-as-americans-begin-hoarding-physical-cash-report/

      1. “The Bureau of Engraving and Printing, the agency in charge of money printing operations in the US, created 756.09 million new $50 bills in 2022, reports CNN.

        The pile of fresh cash is worth about $37.8 billion.”

        That implies a value of 1000*$37.8/756.09 = $49.994 per $50 bill. Who gets the missing $0.006 per bill, or 756,090,000 * $0.006 = $4,536,540, or am I confused by rounding error?

      2. The Federal Reserve Bank is printing a record number of $50 bills as Americans feel the urge to hold physical cash.

        In this case the printing machine literally went “brrrrt!”

        I sthere anything keeping the Treasury from minting 10, 20, 50 or 100 dollar coins?

        1. Great question!

          I’m guessing the metal is worth more than the coin, but would love to see the data…

          1. NBC Los Angeles
            double eagle
            What’s behind the most expensive US coin? It was auctioned for $18.9 million in 2021
            By Clara Ramirez • Published September 20, 2023 • Updated on September 28, 2023 at 2:46 pm
            NBC Universal Media, LLC

            A gold coin that was minted in 1933 called the Double Eagle was auctioned in 2021 for $18.9 million. Its value is centered in history.

            “It had sold originally in 2002 for a touch over $7 million after it came to the market. And then recently it sold for almost $19 million. And that stands out as the most valuable United States coin of all times,” said David Vagi, the Director of NGC Ancients.

            When the auction was announced in March 2021, the 1933 Double Eagle coin was expected to be auctioned for $10 million to $15 million. However, it exceeded expectations during the auction held in New York.

            The coin has great value for collectors, since it survived a historical event for which it should not exist today. This is the only 1933 Double Eagle coin that can have a legal private owner in the United States.

            “The Double Eagle, which is a $20 gold piece, was minted in 1933. And this is right at the point when private ownership of gold became outlawed in the United States. In general, you could maintain small bits of gold, but general gold ownership was outlawed,” Vagi said.

            In fact, in 1933 President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued an executive order limiting the possession of gold coins worth more than $100. Additionally, the United States Congress passed the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which made the circulation and possession of gold coins illegal, with the exception of those in the hands of collectors. People who owned gold coins had to return them and exchange them for another type of currency.

            The 1933 Double Eagle was minted before the Reserve Act of 1934 and most gold coins were returned and melted down by the end of that year.

            “It is no longer illegal, but at the time it was, and the US mint had struck these coins, just like it struck them in previous years, and then the word comes down that no more. So only a few of these coins escaped and only one is actually legal to own by any private citizen,” Vagi explained.
            …
            https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/whats-behind-the-most-expensive-us-coin-it-was-auctioned-for-18-9-million-in-2021/3227786/

      3. $50s are the new $20’s. 3 burgers, 3 shakes and 2 fries was $60 at my local burger joint. I paid with a $100 bill.

  23. Oh dear, is the bloom coming off the EV rose?

    (Also, I thought they were supposed to be easier and cheaper to maintain?)
    —————————————————————–
    Sixt to Phase Out Teslas From Rental Car Fleet on Poor Resale Value

    By Wilfried Eckl-Dorna

    December 1, 2023 at 9:21 AM PST

    Sixt SE is phasing out Tesla Inc. electric cars from its fleet after the manufacturer’s heavy price cuts hurt residual values at Europe’s biggest car-rental company.

    Higher repair costs for electric cars compared to combustion vehicles are compounding the issues with lower resale values, Sixt said in an email to customers seen by Bloomberg News. The company still plans to electrify as much as 90% of its fleet in Europe by the end of the decade, according to a spokesperson.

    Tesla’s aggressive price cuts have put EV makers globally under pressure as the US company seeks to maintain dominance in a growing field of competitors. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. in October said Tesla’s price drops have lowered resale values of EVs by one third.

    Slowing EV demand in recent weeks has seen a number of carmakers scale back strategies in the transition. General Motors Co. said it was rethinking goals after sales were slower than anticipated, and Volkswagen AG has cut back production in Germany. Mercedes-Benz Group AG said the EV price war “brutal” and unsustainable.

    [I copy and pasted the entire article since it’s behind a paywall]

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-01/sixt-to-drop-teslas-from-rental-car-fleet-on-poor-resale-value

    1. I haven’t rented a car since 2018, which was the last time i visited Corp HQ in Santa Clara. From what I have heard it now costs an arm and a leg to rent a car.

    2. (Also, I thought they were supposed to be easier and cheaper to maintain?)

      The Narrative is that since they have fewer mechanical parts, they won’t break as much. But they are also chock full of complex, temperamental and expensive to repair/replace electronics. That said, some ICE cars, especially the high end Eurotrash, are also guilty of this. Some dashboards are now a giant touchscreen. I don’t even want to think what replacing one of those would cost, and that’s assuming the parts are available.

  25. Yahoo Finance Video
    Housing market: Why 2024 could be ‘another slow year’
    Diane King Hall and Luke Carberry Mogan
    Mon, November 27, 2023 at 8:02 AM PST

    US new home sales pulled back by 5.6% in the month of October as mortgage rates remain higher for longer. Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather shares her predictions for the US housing market in 2024, taking into consideration mortgage rates and the amount of US homebuyers preferring all-cash offers.

    “If rates fall below 7%, I think we’re going to have a surprisingly strong year,” Fairweather tells Yahoo Finance. “That’s when I think we’re going to see more people out there with bidding wars even.”
    …
    https://finance.yahoo.com/video/housing-market-why-2024-could-160225535.html

    1. “If rates fall below 7%, I think we’re going to have a surprisingly strong year,”

      Nobody wants to acknowledge the reason why rates might fall, which is that the economy could slide into a recession.

      Maybe this time is different, but in the 1990-1996 and 2007-2012 periods, once the recession was underway, the housing marked CR8Red, despite falling interest rates. Who wants to buy a house when prices are falling and your employment situation is unstable?

      1. Bloomberg
        Markets
        Bill Gross Recession Bet Has Minted Millions From Bond Rally
        – Former ‘bond king’ nailed wager on short-dated rate futures
        – Securities have rallied as traders pile into rate-cut wagers
        Bill GrossPhotographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
        By Edward Bolingbroke
        December 1, 2023 at 4:15 AM PST
        Updated on December 1, 2023 at 12:24 PM PST

        One of the big winners from the sudden furious rally in the US bond market: Bill Gross.

        The former top guy at the world’s biggest bond fund may just be a marginal player with an up-and-down track record nowadays, but he nailed a rates bet made in late October.
        …
        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-01/bill-gross-s-recession-bet-has-minted-millions-from-bond-rally

        1. “Bill Gross Recession Bet Has Minted Millions…”

          And if he lost that bet he’d resemble that tabloid photo of Jim Bakker when he received his prison sentence.

        1. The Boy Who Cried Wolf recession is right around the corner. And Wall Street is already placing bets on how quickly the Fed will drop rates to the floor in response.

  26. ‘Home prices likely won’t drop, but sellers might not get offers way above asking prices anymore’

    Milly I think yer bucket has a hole in it.

    1. Doesn’t not getting offers above list price imply lower offers and ultimately, lower sale prices?

      What am I missing?

  27. ‘It is in this bucolic, wealthy enclave that tech billionaire David Duffield established Fieldhaven, a 21-acre estate that took years and over $135 million to build. Adjusting for inflation, the property would cost about $250 million to construct today, or you can buy it now for $35 million’

    Like sands through an hourglass, the Jerry bucks fly to money heaven.

  28. ‘The Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas have office vacancy rates that range from 21% to 25%. But whether the glut of space at a time when developers are continuing to construct more office buildings foreshadows a brewing economic storm remains to be seen’

    Oh they’re still building. You can read all about it on these CRE sites I post and the usual newspaper article.

  29. ‘They can keep the building as-is and deal with diminishing returns or upgrade it in order to compete with glitzier office properties, Hunt said. Owners can also sell the building or demolish it. ‘What do you do with a million and a half square feet if nobody wants it anymore?’’

    We’ve never experienced a time when all guberments purposefully destroyed their town and city economic base as we saw with minor respiratory illness. So to answer yer question Harold, I’d say get some mayo for that sh$t sandwich in yer hand. Demolitions could come sooner than later because the holding costs are yuuge.

  30. ‘there are B-, C- and D- assets in the office space, because of the tendency of U.S. investors to oversupply everything, that are completely useless. That stuff, we wouldn’t touch and I don’t think anybody would’

    That’s the spirit Alfonso!

  31. by Jamie White
    December 3rd 2023, 3:02 pm

    A U.S. Navy Medical Officer who exposed an alarming surge in heart issues among pilots who received the COVID-19 vaccine has had his computer access blocked by the the Department of Defense.

    Navy Medical Service Corps officer Lieutenant Ted Macie posted a video last week breaking down the DoD’s own data specifically focusing on active-duty fixed-wing and helicopter pilots showing an alarming spike in serious heart issues among those who took the COVID jab.

    His wife Mara Macie posted a video on Thursday claiming the DoD shut him out of his computer access.

    “This afternoon, as Ted was nearing the end of his work day, he went to use the restroom. And when he returned, he no longer had access to his work computer, and he needs to have access to his work computer to do his job,” Mara said.

    I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸
    @ImMeme0

    🚨🚨BREAKING: DOD Blocks US Navy Medical Officer’s Computer Access After He Exposed Data Of Heart Issues Among Pilots During Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccination.

    Lieutenant Ted Macie, an active-duty officer in the Navy Medical Service Corps and whistleblower, has been denied access… Show more

    https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1731087585945026941?s=20

    Mara Macie
    @MaraMacie
    Update on my husband,
    @ted_macie
    (DMED Whistleblower).
    Transparency ALWAYS.
    Help us fight government corruption!
    http://maramacieforcongress.com

    https://x.com/MaraMacie/status/1730362722175365529?s=20
    https://x.com/MaraMacie/status/1730362722175365529?s=20

    1. The Kansas CIty player claims to have gotten his booster. I guess I should too, right?

      Dumb question: If you never received any of the jabs, is a “booster” as booster?

      1. He’s also supposed to be dating some sort of hottie, so that makes him posing with a bandaid on his arm more credible.

        2. “He’s also supposed to be dating some sort of hottie…”

          A long-legged hottie with a full daylight gap!

  32. ‘Now I’d love to be magnanimous about this and think … never mind, at least young people will be able to live their dream life near the sea like I couldn’t. But sadly I won’t be able to buy what I want now, so I’ll end up working harder for longer’

    Acceptance <- Magnanimous woman you are here.

  34. Speculating in real estate during a mania may make you feel wealthy until the point of bubble collapse, at which point you may lose everything.

    That’s my question/interest. How many of these Multimillionaire “geniuses” are going to lose everything and have to get a real job. Of course most of them don’t have much in the way of a skill set so…..

    1. Would you leverage up to invest in real estate at crazy high prices? If you do this, you can’t say you haven’t been warned.

      But crazies gonna cray cray…

      1. POWER PLAYERS
        At 99, billionaire Charlie Munger shared his No. 1 tip for living a long, happy life: ‘Avoid crazy at all costs’
        Published Sun, Dec 3 2023 9:00 AM EST
        Tom Huddleston Jr.
        Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway
        Lacy O’ Toole | CNBC
        Charlie Munger, who died at age 99 last week, attributed his success and longevity at least partially to a single piece of advice: “Avoid crazy at all costs.”

        That’s what he told CNBC’s Becky Quick last month, in an interview meant to air on his 100th birthday in January.

        Munger was known as the longtime business partner and friend of fellow billionaire Warren Buffett, whom he worked with for nearly 45 years. The partnership proved successful for both: Munger’s net worth was most recently estimated at $2.3 billion, according to Forbes. The 93-year-old Buffett boasts an estimated net worth of $120 billion, making him the seventh-wealthiest person in the world.

        When pressed for his keys to a long and successful life, Munger at first demurred, saying “I don’t know the secret.” Then, he added that he’d avoided major catastrophes in his life because he was “so cautious,” always avoiding obvious risks in his personal life and career.

        “Crazy is way more common than you think,” said Munger. “It’s easy to slip into crazy. Just avoid it, avoid it, avoid it.”

        What exactly constituted “crazy,” in Munger’s estimation? “My partner Charlie says there is only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies and leverage,” Buffett told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in 2018.
        …
        https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/03/charlie-munger-best-tip-for-long-life-avoid-crazy-at-all-costs.html

  35. Saw a great comment recently: young people looking for passive income should be working on active income.

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Bloomberg
      Evergrande Liquidation Hearing Postponed in Surprise to Lenders
      Pearl Liu and Dorothy Ma
      Sun, December 3, 2023 at 7:49 PM PST·4 min read
      In this article:

      (Bloomberg) — China Evergrande Group won breathing room to strike a restructuring agreement with creditors after a Hong Kong court again pushed back a decision on whether the world’s most-indebted property developer should be wound up.

      The proceedings have been adjourned to Jan. 29, Judge Linda Chan said in the city’s High Court. The unexpected delay came as the original petitioner didn’t push for an immediate liquidation on Monday, the latest twist in a lawsuit that has dragged on for more than a year.

      The homebuilder now has eight weeks to agree a deal with offshore bondholders for what would be one of the nation’s biggest-ever restructurings. Evergrande’s lawyer said Monday a new proposal was sent on Nov. 26, and the firm is applying for another adjournment as it hopes to seek further support and more feedback from creditors.

      “The petitioner changed its position and didn’t push to wind up the company, which is a surprise to us,” Neil McDonald, a partner at law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP, legal adviser to an ad-hoc group of creditors, said in an interview outside the court. Meanwhile, the creditor group has “has firmly rejected” the latest proposal that Evergrande put forward to the court, he added.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evergrande-winding-hearing-hong-kong-022803199.html

    1. Financial Times
      3 hours ago 18:12
      Gold rises to record and dollar falls as markets bet on dovish Fed
      William Langley in Hong Kong

      Gold prices climbed to a record and the dollar fell against other currencies on Monday as traders bet that the US Federal Reserve had finished increasing interest rates.

      Gold rose as much as 3.1 per cent to a high of $2,135.39 a troy ounce before paring gains to be up 0.8 per cent at $2,087.59. The yen and the renminbi each strengthened 0.1 per cent to trade at ¥146.61 and Rmb7.1318 a dollar.

      Fed chair Jay Powell warned on Friday that the central bank could increase rates further but added that policy was in “restrictive territory” already.

      Asian equities were mixed, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index flat, China’s CSI 300 falling 0.2 per cent and Japan’s Topix declining 0.6 per cent.
      …

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