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People Are Chasing A Market That’s Long Gone

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “As the years have gone by, it appears that some have lost their enchantment with Austin, to the point where companies and founders are also leaving or looking to leave the city. People who moved here for affordability reasons quickly realized the city was not as inexpensive as they expected — especially when it came to housing. Austin’s housing market went berserk in 2020 and 2021. As recently reported by Newsweek, ‘by mid-2022, prices were more than 75 percent higher in the city compared to before the pandemic.’ What went up is now coming back down, with the same publication reporting that ‘prices in Austin are dropping 10 times faster than the national average.'”

“A downtown San Jose housing tower built by a China-based real estate firm whose top boss has been linked to a Bay Area fraud case may face foreclosure proceedings due to delinquent homeowners dues. The property involved in the delinquencies is the two-tower residential complex at 188 West St. James Street in downtown San Jose. The delinquencies have arisen from unpaid dues to the homeowners association for unsold condos in the western tower, county real estate records show. ‘It is absolutely mind-boggling that Z&L can’t resolve the HOA payments,’ said Bob Staedler, principal executive with Silicon Valley Synergy, a land-use consultancy. Subcontractors have filed several mechanic’s liens against the property. If unresolved, the subcontractors could potentially move towards a foreclosure effort.”

“For the past four months, the median price of a single-family home in Redmond has hovered around the $500,000 mark, indicating a market that is stabilizing, according to a monthly housing report. In Bend, however, the story is a bit different. Since July, the median single-family home sales price in Bend has gone from a high of $800,000 to a low of $730,000 in November.”

“Many Toronto-area homeowners with a property for sale are facing a dilemma as 2023 winds down: Do I cut my price now or hold out for the potential of a market rebound in the spring? Christopher Bibby, broker with Re/Max Hallmark Bibby Group Realty, says swelling inventory is the metric he is watching most closely. Buyers have more leverage now that total transactions are down by approximately 40 per cent from the springtime in the central market, he adds. Sellers who don’t recognize that dynamics have changed will be disappointed and unsuccessful, Mr. Bibby says. ‘I think sometimes people are chasing a market that’s long gone.'”

“Some highly coveted neighbourhoods are seeing listings sit as buyers hesitate. The family-friendly Bedford Park area, for example, had 11 detached houses for sale with asking prices between $3.5-million and $5.5-million at the end of November. Andre Kutyan, broker with Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd., says builders are in a tough spot after buying the land and materials, then spending more than one year on construction, only to face a declining market upon completion. If they needed to sell above $5-million to make a solid profit, he understands their reluctance to sell for substantially less. ‘At $4.5-million a lot of these guys are losing their shirts,’ Mr. Kutyan says. But many will end up selling far below even their discounted asking prices, he believes.”

“Nancy Paine’s short-term rental business is dead in the water. As CEO of Victoria-based Superhost, Paine said she had been at the forefront of the Airbnb revolution for seven years. But Paine said that will all come to an end next spring when British Columbia enacts a law restricting short-term rentals to a homeowner’s principal residence. It’s among new housing regulations being rolled out over two years, with the government saying it wants to stop short-term rentals ‘taking away homes people need.’ ‘I expect business volumes to really plummet as of January and then, basically, I won’t have a business as of May 1,’ said Paine.”

“Short-term rental managers like Paine across B.C. are lamenting the demise of their business model, while real estate agents say owners of investment properties are being forced to sell at a loss or risk being unable to pay their mortgage. Orion Rodgers, another short-term rental property manager in Victoria, manages about 30 properties. He said he also worried his business will be ‘erased’ under the new law. ‘People will face heavy losses … and the people that are going to buy them are not there. No one’s there yet because the interest rates are so high and the bar for entry to purchase is so high,’ said Rodgers.”

“In Kelowna, Amanda Van Der Lee’s company, How to Host Property Management and Design, manages properties for short-term rental hosts. She said most of her clients purchased condos in Kelowna to get into the real estate market and if forced to convert them to long-term rentals, they would have no or negative cash flow. ‘For someone’s mortgage to go up $1,000 to $1,500 a month and not be able to get the amount of rental income on a monthly basis, if they go long term … it would force a sale and properties aren’t selling right now,’ said Van Der Lee. ‘There are so many properties that are hitting the market. God forbid people buy a vacation home in Kelowna and they’re able to subsidize some of the costs of that home by renting it out. Like, when did that become such a crime?’ asked Van Der Lee.”

“A Nottinghamshire homeowner has shared his regret after moving into a ‘horror’ estate at a former brewery. Mike Freeman, 35, who moved into the old Hardys & Hansons brewery in Kimberley seven years ago as it was converted into a new housing development, has warned others to stay away from the project. ‘I’ve been here seven years and it is still not finished. I have been in touch with them this last week because they installed my roof incorrectly – loads of people have had leaks in their roofs over the last few weeks due to the weather. I wish I had never moved here. No one should ever go near Fairgrove.'”

“A real estate survey has revealed a declining number of agents are seeing house price increases in their locations. The New Zealand Home Loans Property Report gathered the views of those in the industry on the current residential housing market conditions. Respondents revealed FOMO (fear of missing out) had also declined – down to 28 percent from 33 and 40 percent in the previous two months. Overall, the FOMO indicator ‘allows us to comfortably say that there is no frenzy underway in the residential real estate market on average throughout New Zealand,’ the report said.”

“Korea’s housing bubble is anticipated to ease gradually in 2024 after years of surging house prices, according to analysts, Friday. Speculation was backed by house price-linked stats, a diminished wealth gap between the rich and the poor, a downturn in Seoul’s house prices for the first time in six months and high interest rates. ‘I would not say house prices will plummet, but one thing I can say for sure is that the housing bubble will shrink by a significant level by the beginning of the second half in 2024,’ said Kwon Dae-jung, a real estate professor at Sogang University.”

“Lee Sang-ho, head of the economic policy team at the Korea Economic Research Institute, said high interest rates will also cause the housing bubble to shrink in 2024. ‘The high key interest rate is likely to remain unchanged in the first six months of 2024, as the drastic rate cut, compared to a drastic rate hike, can have a more negative effect on people’s livelihoods and the economy,’ Lee said. ‘Would-be homeowners are likely to wait and see for the rate to fall, and such an approach will contribute to the gradual easing of the housing bubble.'”

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This Post Has 118 Comments

  1. ‘There are so many properties that are hitting the market. God forbid people buy a vacation home in Kelowna and they’re able to subsidize some of the costs of that home by renting it out. Like, when did that become such a crime?’

    I’d say it’s next May 1st Amanda.

  2. You will own nothing.

    You will live in the pod in your 15 minute prison city, you will eat the bug paste, your every movement will be tracked, and you will not complain about any of it.

    1. I’ve started hoarding chocolate and sugar. I figure it will make eating bug paste more palatable.

      1. Your children will rat you out to the Stasi / NKVD for your selfish hoarding behavior, your chocolate and sugar will be confiscated and re-distributed to more loyal Comrades as reward for their service to Dear Leader, and off the gulag you go, filthy kulak.

      2. don’t forget Tabasco sauce.
        soy sauce is good to have also, to smother that day-old Sam’s Club sushi the wife insists on getting.

        1. “…don’t forget Tabasco sauce…”

          My favorite is Tapatio hot sauce.

          Problem is that price has almost tripled since pre-pandemic.

          Our new mandated diet: Bug paste + Tapatio (if not rationed) paired with wine made with ‘liberated’ fruit from neighbors backyards.

  3. Are you prepared for higher-for-longer rates, against the backdrop of a resiliently strong labor market and inflation that refuses to drop back to 2 percent?

    1. Yahoo
      Yahoo Finance
      New bank rules could push mortgage rates up 30%: Analyst
      Jennifer Schonberger
      Thu, December 7, 2023 at 7:21 AM PST·3 min read
      In this article:

      Eight Wall Street CEOs testified before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, and the primary topic of discussion centered on a new proposal to raise capital requirements at these firms.

      And banking analyst Meredith Whitney warns these rules won’t just present a new challenge for the banks, but could create a new headache for American homeowners.

      “The proposals under the Basel III Endgame are going to hurt the consumer, that’s just a fact,” Whitney, who is best known for her prescient calls ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, told Yahoo Finance Live in an interview. “The risk is for the US consumer, which is that capital will be harder to come by for small businesses, and the individual, and it can be more expensive.”
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-bank-rules-could-push-mortgage-rates-up-30-analyst-152116034.html

  4. New York Times (via Archive) — The New World Bank Leader Has the Climate Crisis at the Top of His Agenda (12/8/2023):

    “Ajay Banga, 64, the former chief executive of Mastercard, took over as president in June. He replaced David Malpass, who was nominated by President Trump and stepped down early after coming under fire for disputing the science of climate change in a live interview with The New York Times.

    And while the World Bank has not instituted the sort of sweeping overhaul envisioned by its most ardent critics, Mr. Banga, an Indian-born American, has over the past six months made a series of changes that he said are aimed at addressing the climate crisis.

    As the planet warms and storms, and drought, wildfires and flooding grow more extreme, poor countries are in a particularly difficult spot. They are desperate for funds to recover from climate disasters while also starved for money to prepare for the next calamity. They are saddled with debt, yet need to invest in a transition away from fossil fuels so they can lower the emissions that are heating the planet and causing so much damage in the first place.”

    https://archive.is/ldvHa

    Note the language in the article title: His Agenda.

    1. They aren’t taking ‘no’ for an answer. As far as they are concerned this is their world and we are all trespassers.

    1. https://www.dailyjobcuts.com/
      Nice website. It appears that we have a quiet, concerted, effort to wind down American commerce , a bit here and a bit there. Reminds me of the question-how do you eat an elephant–one bite at a time. With open borders allowing individuals (mostly uneducated and unskilled) to literally flood across our borders bringing with them only weak minds and strong hands, we are displacing our own semi-skilled citizens. In my part of fly-over country, and just 14 miles from the state capitol, every night I witness pop-up restaurant at many vacant parking lots complete with generator provided lighting and chairs and tables for the
      ” customers” while our health inspectors replying “It is after 4:00 pm and I am off the job now”. It is time to re-read the Cloward & Piven theory on how to destroy a Nation. Sadly, too many people are totally unaware of these two individuals that are a product of our institutes of higher learning.

      1. My area runneth over with papusa food trucks with a similar setup.

        The country has too much duplicate retail anyway, so I’m not surprised that stores are shutting down. At the moment the shut-downs look like over-saturated craft brew, mom-n-pops where Mom and Pop are 70+ and the kids don’t want to take over the family business, or restaurants in old strip malls that are being torn down for new mixed-use condos/retail.

    2. Danielle DiB

      I like her, but she needs to get a better handle on her TDS. She quite seriously said that Trump signed socialism into law with the CARES Act, completely ignoring that the bill was introduced by a Democrat, passed by the House 419-6, and passed by the Senate 96-0. Imagine the optics, not to mention the futility, vetoing that bill with that much Congressional support.

      1. My instictive response is “a person of principle would veto it anyway”. Upon reflection I’m not sure I believe that 100%, but curious to throw the thought out there for responses/feedback.

        (that doesn’t make Trump responsible for the act obviously — the president is simply a check/balance when it comes to legislation)

        1. Optics following veto: Orange Man really, really mean! Billionaire Orange Man hates poor suffering little people!!!

          Ultimate outcome: Congress overrides veto.

  6. Max Boot, you’re not an American, you are globalist vermin.

    Washington Post (via Archive) — The GOP’s abandonment of Ukraine makes me ashamed to be an American (12/8/2023):

    “It’s not often that I feel ashamed to be an American. But I was ashamed this week when the Senate refused to support a supplemental spending bill that would provide about $61 billion in urgently needed aid for Ukraine (along with $14 billion for Israel and $20 billion for border security). All of the Senate Republicans, even those who have previously supported Ukraine funding, voted to filibuster the bill. Their stated position: They won’t provide a penny for Ukraine unless Democrats agree to a sweeping, draconian overhaul of the United States’ immigration laws.”

    https://archive.is/ohZwS

    Max Boot have you considered leaving the U.S. and moving to Ukraine?

    1. The Secret Service has already leaked that they are preparing to evacuate Zelensky and his (fake) family to to Florida. Some rumors claim that they already have US Passports.

  8. Property taxes. Property taxes and the “public education” system.

    JeffCo Public Schools parents claim district’s transgender policy violates parental rights (12/7/2023):

    “Parents allege JeffCo Public Schools’ transgender policy violates their parental rights following an out-of-state trip.

    Joe and Serena Wailes said their 11-year-old daughter was assigned to sleep in the same bed as a transgender girl during a June 2023 trip to Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.

    Serena said the sleeping arrangement made her daughter “uncomfortable.”

    “She was unknowingly assigned to share a bed with a boy who identifies as a girl,” said Serena, who was on the trip with her daughter.”

    https://www.denver7.com/news/local-news/jeffco-public-schools-parents-claim-districts-transgender-policy-violates-parental-rights

    11 years old?

    Yuri Bezmenov warned us about this forty years ago.

    1. following an out-of-state trip

      That was their first mistake: entrusting their child’s safety and well being to strangers.

    1. Brainard suggested that President Joe Biden will not wait for Congress. The administration, for example, said that it was advocating for zoning reforms that will help unlock the construction of affordable homes.

      If Biden does anything more than “advocate,” that wouldn’t that infringe the 10th? But anyway, ripping down SFH to build the usual mixed-use sardine towers will do nothing but overtax the decades-old roads, which were designed for single-car households on 0.25 acres.

      2. And street parking, and over-crowded schools, and over crowded park district facilities, and undersized water mains, and worse traffic, and so on.

    2. “E) more than 100 trillion $”

      Quadruple the national debt in one fell swoop? Why not.

      Does anyone actually believe that if Mr. T gets back in AND bubbles begin to pop in earnest, that his administration won’t do any bailouts?

    1. POWER PLAYERS
      Charlie Munger said there was no secret to his success: ‘I avoided the standard ways of failing’
      Published Fri, Dec 8 2023 9:00 AM EST
      Ashton Jackson

      When it comes to the ultra rich, you might think there’s some unknown secret to attaining such success. But there isn’t, according to billionaire Charlie Munger, who died last week at age 99.

      “I don’t know the secret,” Munger told CNBC’s Becky Quick in an interview last month, initially meant to air on his 100th birthday in January. His method for getting ahead — in life and at work — was pretty cut and dry, he added.

      “I avoided the standard ways of failing, because my game in life was always to avoid all standard ways of failing,” said Munger. “You teach me the wrong way to play poker and I will avoid it. You teach me the wrong way to do something else, I will avoid it. And, of course, I’ve avoided a lot, because I’m so cautious.”

      Munger spent his life “avoiding traps,” like living in the same modest home for 70 years, refusing to follow his rich friends who built mega-mansions, he said. “In practically every case, [fancy houses] make the person less happy, not happier,” he said.

      His general sense of cautiousness was well-documented, from his personal disdain for the “gambling” nature of cryptocurrency to his generally conservative spending decisions.

      In terms of cryptocurrency: “Sometimes I call it ‘crypto crappo.’ Sometimes I call it ‘crypto s—.’ It’s just ridiculous that anybody would buy this stuff,” Munger told CNBC in February, adding: “It’s totally absolutely crazy, stupid gambling.”
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-bank-rules-could-push-mortgage-rates-up-30-analyst-152116034.html

      1. Munger spent his life “avoiding traps,” like living in the same modest home for 70 years, refusing to follow his rich friends who built mega-mansions, he said. “In practically every case, [fancy houses] make the person less happy, not happier,” he said.

        Paging Larry Ellison …

        1. It’s well known that Larry owns 98 per cent of the Hawaiian island of Lanai and properties in San Francisco.

          Wouldn’t mind being his house guest for a couple of months. Must be something.

          2. “…His mansion in Palm Springs has its own private golf course….”

            Didn’t know that Larry played. Wonder if he plays to a handicap?

            Could only imagine who he has out on his course. (assume its a regulation 18 holer).

            Imagine being a foursome with Larry, Tiger, Jack. A day to remember for sure.

        2. like living in the same modest home for 70 years

          👌🙄

          Homecoming for Munger with oceanfront mansion in Montecito
          Billionaire developed gated Sea Meadow community, also known as “Mungerville”

          “The Nebraska native has owned property in Sea Meadow before, and also owns an estate in Pasadena estate and a relatively modest home in the Hancock Park neighborhood of Los Angeles.”

          1. The home’s “modest” features:

            “The quarter-acre property packs in a full-size tennis court, a dining terrace and some gardens. There is also access to the community’s private beach and swimming pool. The gated community is privately guarded.”

      2. ” living in the same modest home for 70 years, refusing to follow his rich friends who built mega-mansions,”

        Even if his home was modest, I really do hope he spent some money on renovating it to make it beautiful with classic architecture, quality interior design and materials, nice hardscape and landscaping, etc. There is a lot of value in well-appointed houses with character.

        1. While not massive, I’ll bet it was as secure as Fort Knox.

          I also wonder just how much time he actually spent there.

          1. It must be surreal being a member of the full time staff that keeps those mansions always ready in case the master decides to show up. Even weirder if he never does show up at the mansion you’re in charge of. How often are the sheets changed in a bed that is never slept in? Does he keep a wardrobe at every site? They must go through a lot of swiffers keeping those places dust free.

      3. It helped Charlie and his buddy quite a bit when Amex and Wells Fargo were rescued in the GFC. True capitalism.

    2. Consider what JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently reported to Congress:

      “I’ve always been deeply opposed to crypto. Bitcoin, etc. You pointed out the only true use case for it is criminals – drug traffickers, money laundering, tax avoidance, and that is a use case because it is somewhat anonymous, not fully, and because you can move money instantaneously.

      And because it doesn’t go all these systems [that] have built up over many years – know your customer (KYC), sanctions, OFAC (Office of Foreign Asset Control) – they can bypass all of that. If I was the government, I’d close it down.”

      https://dailyhodl.com/2023/12/07/181034960000-in-fines-paid-by-big-four-us-banks-as-jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-says-cryptos-for-criminals/

      1. Running an empire is difficult to do if one has to ask permission all the time. Hence, there is a need for Crypto or it’s back to the BCCI bank model.

        1. March 11, 2016
          Clintons, Contras and Cocaine
          by Jeffrey St. Clair – Alexander Cockburn

          The political rise of the Clintons has been monetarily fueled by a man linked to one of the biggest banking scandals in the nation’s history. Arkansas financier and political king-maker Jackson Stephens, with his son Warren, helped raise more than $100,000 for Clinton. More important, Stephens’ Worthen National Bank extended Bill Clinton a $2 million line of credit in January 1992, when the campaign was reeling under multiple allegations of adultery.

          It was Jackson Stephens who brokered the arrival of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI)–the bank later identified as an institution of preference for global criminals and drug peddlers–into this country in 1977. He steered the bank’s founder, Hassan Abedi, toward Jimmy Carter’s budget director, Bert Lance, whose bank an Abedi front man took over. Stephens then helped clear the ground, according to SEC documents, for Abedi’s secret takeover of First American Bankshares. In the wake of BCCI’s downfall, these institutions are gravely weakened; other U.S. banks secretly taken over by BCCI–including CenTrust, the biggest S&L in Florida, and Independence Bank of Encino–collapsed, leaving taxpayers holding the multi-billion dollar bag.

          Just as the BCCI trail heads back toward Arkansas and a prime cash register for the Clintons, so too does another long-running and explosive scandal within the state, involving money-laundering, drug-running and support for right-wing insurgents backed by the CIA.

          By the mid-1980s, Arkansas was a crucial link in the contra war against Nicaragua being masterminded from Washington. One scheme for maintaining a cover-up for Oliver North’s network was, it appears, played out in the Governor’s mansion occupied by Bill Clinton.

          https://www.counterpunch.org/2016/03/11/clintons-contras-and-cocaine/

    3. Financial Times
      Opinion The Long View
      ‘Number go up’: bitcoin’s startling surge is inexplicable as ever
      Rally from out of crypto winter shows how speculative the tokens still are
      Katie Martin
      A depiction of bitcoin standing up on a computer keyboard and reflected in a monitor screen
      Taking a punt on a crypto token is just as valid as buying a lottery ticket or putting a fiver each way on the 1.40 at Kempton racecourse
      Katie Martin
      7 hours ago

      If you ever see me, in any forum, recommending that people should buy crypto, then one of two things has happened. Either someone has created a deep fake of me, or I have been kidnapped. In the latter scenario, “buy crypto” would be my secret distress signal. Call the cops.

      Nonetheless, it is hard to ignore the startling rally in bitcoin. Trust me, I’ve tried. Somehow, despite a swirling hellfire of regulatory aggression and legal strife afflicting several of the key institutions in this space, the price of this token has risen by 160 per cent this year (not a typo) to $44,000, in a rally that has accelerated sharply over the past week or so. That comfortably eclipses any traditional asset class on the planet.

      To be clear, if people want to buy these tokens, I bear them no ill. People spend money on Crocs sandals, real ale and other things I don’t like all the time. Similarly, taking a punt on a crypto token is just as valid as buying a lottery ticket or putting a fiver each way on the 1.40 at Kempton racecourse. Nothing wrong with that. If you want to do this, knock yourself out. I hope it makes you rich. If it does, the last laugh will be yours, so please don’t bother sending the usual all-caps emails telling me I’m an idiot — they’ll just go in the file with the others.
      …

      2. The flood of Pandemic-era easy money from the Fed is still driving risk assets to crazy valuations, including the current Bitcoin price.

        It should be quite interesting to see what becomes of cryptocurrency prices when risk premiums dry up over the next year in response to the long and variable lags of Fed tightening.

        1. Is Bitcoin still tracking equities markets? I know in the past they were going up (and maybe down as well) in parallel.

        2. Is Bitcoin still tracking equities markets? I know in the past they were going up (and maybe down as well) in parallel. The DJI closed at a 52-week high on Friday.

  11. Are you worried about losing money if you buy a house while prices are resetting downwards in response to higher-for-longer interest rates?

    1. The San Francisco Standard
      Newsletters
      Business
      1 in 8 San Francisco Homeowners Are Selling at a Loss—the Highest Number in the Nation
      Written by Kevin TruongPublished Dec. 08, 2023 • 6:15am
      A row of houses
      San Francisco’s share of homeowners selling their properties at a loss is the highest of any major metro in the country and continues to rise. | Source: Jeremy Chen/The Standard

      San Francisco’s share of homeowners selling their properties at a loss is the highest of any major metro in the country and continues to rise.

      Data from residential real estate company Redfin showed that 13.57% of San Francisco metro home sellers sold their properties at a loss—nearly double the 6.92% figure in Detroit, the city in second place.

      Among those who lost money selling their homes in San Francisco, the average loss was $122,500.
      …
      https://sfstandard.com/2023/12/08/homebuyer-residential-real-estate-loss-san-francisco/

    1. They’ll just keep raising taxes on those who remain, like that dude who got sucker punched while pushing a stroller. Turns out he was Asian. His assailant, a Hispanic, also attacked someone else before being arrested.

        1. He was seriously lacking in situational awareness, as he never noticed the other guy approach him.

          I’m gonna guess he votes D and will vote D again next year.

        1. In Rancho Bernardo. I’m old enough to remember when that sort of thing happened in Spring Valley or Cholo Vista.

        2. OMG! I hate that shopping center — too many pretentious people and Teslas (redundant I know). I had a total a-hole in front of me at the CVS, but he drove another pretentious EV SUV. Oh, and at eye level in the store, while I was waiting in line with my son, were Hello Cake sex toys, including a Buzzy Butt.

          1. Teslas are pretty unavoidable within 30 miles of the SoCal beach. I don’t know if it is the cars or the drivers at fault, but the result is driving behavior which makes me hate Teslas.

          3. There is a Tesla repair depot here in my little burg and Teslas are not rare. I haven’t really noticed douchy behavior from Tesla drivers here. Then again, compared with nearby Dumver, we are still pretty chill here.

          4. I don’t know if it is the cars or the drivers at fault, but the result is driving behavior which makes me hate Teslas.

            Contrary to popular belief, Teslas don’t drive themselves. It’s the morons behind the wheel at fault.

          5. IME, they think they always have the right-of-way. It happened again today at Carmel Mountain Plaza.

          6. “…they think they always have the right-of-way.”

            And they always claim it in a manner to force other drivers to change plans.

          7. I have never understood the need for “toys”.

            Way back when I was innocent a friend’s girlfriend offered me her honor, and I honored her offer. At one point she produced a toy from her purse, and I asked if she wanted the toy or the real thing? More than a year elapsed before I realized she wanted both.

        3. My wife had a sudden change of plans today as she approached this situation.

          She is not lacking in situational awareness, being very attuned to her surroundings.

    2. “Everything is on the table”

      How about a flat state income tax? That would greatly reduce the incentives for wealthy folks to flee Taxifornia in droves.

        2. $68 billion is that a lot?

          Cue up the “muh world’s fifth largest economy” line of drivel as some sort of excuse for the inescapable descent into squalor and mayhem.

      2. How about a flat state income tax? That would greatly reduce the incentives for wealthy folks to flee Taxifornia in droves.

        But how are they gonna pay all those six figure salaries and pensions?

        1. A flat tax is simple and flexible. You can balance the tax rate and the size of the exemption to influence the revenues you collect and protect subsistence income.

          And rather than moving to Florida or Texas, wealthy people may find themselves tempted to stay in California, if they didn’t feel like the tax system was designed to unfairly screw them. This could make revenues go up. And wealthy households might also be less of a drain on public funds.

          1. A flat tax is simple and flexible.

            We have one here in the Centennial state. I don’t think that civil servant salaries are as high here. Of course the state gooberment is always waling about how TABOR and the flat tax are a detriment to the state.

  13. I’m seeing a lot of these around FL. Went on the market at 512k$ in August. A few months and several price cuts later listed for 425k$.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1874-NW-Britt-Rd-Stuart-FL-34994/45670092_zpid/?rtoken=a630c842-74d1-4443-91d0-76564b3ea39c~X1-ZU10ol24qfk7bbd_1pt0h&utm_campaign=emo-instant_home_recs_email&utm_source=email&utm_term=urn:msg:20231208190854c5e6896470d77f6f&utm_medium=email&utm_content=forsaleaddress-_rid-CxD2PzqSxScxbiYnPMRUbx_

      1. I don’t think that central partition is load-bearing on the left side of the kitchen in the pictures. to my eye, this just appears to be one of the crappiest flips ever. they kept the crummy original windows all around, and possibly even the slider. Low budget, poor taste, no attention to detail. Whoever purchases this dump will have years to regret it.

    2. “Is now a good time to buy the China dip?”

      I don’t know, I’d have to ask ABQ Dan. 😉

    1. Markets
      CNBC TV
      Watchlist
      Updated Fri, Dec 8 2023 4:18 PM EST
      S&P 500 notches new high for 2023 Friday, on six-week hot streak after solid economic data: Live updates
      Samantha Subin
      Tanaya Macheel
      The consumer is what we’re most worried about in 2024, says Nuveen’s Saira Malik
      watch now
      VIDEO 03:43

      The S&P 500 rose on Friday to hit a new high for the year after the November jobs report and University of Michigan consumer survey data signaled a resilient economy and cooling inflation, fueling hopes for a so-called soft landing scenario.

      The S&P 500 added 0.41% to settle at 4,604.37, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.45% to finish at 14,403.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 130.49 points, or 0.36%, to end at 36,247.87.

      The S&P 500 posted its highest close of the year last week, but had yet to exceed its 2023 intraday high set in July until Friday, when it topped 4,609 in afternoon trading. The benchmark is now up about 20% on the year and trading at its highest level back to March 2022.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    2. Economy
      Published December 7, 2023 4:49pm EST
      US households lost $1.3T during stock market rut this fall
      U.S. household net worth plunged amid stock-market volatility
      By Megan Henney FOXBusiness
      ‘The Ramsey Show’ co-host George Kamel discusses the drop in retail sales and consumer spending, and reacts to Marie Osmond not granting her children an inheritance. video
      Credit cards have become the ‘cigarette’ of the financial world: George Kamel

      ‘The Ramsey Show’ co-host George Kamel discusses the drop in retail sales and consumer spending, and reacts to Marie Osmond not granting her children an inheritance.

      U.S. household wealth plummeted in the third quarter by the most in a year as a result of deep stock losses, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday.

      Household net worth fell about $1.3 trillion, or 0.9%, in the three-month period from July to September to $151 trillion.

      The decline was largely due to a $1.7 trillion drop in the value of equity holdings. That was offset by a rise in the value of real estate held by households, which hit a record high last quarter.

      The Fed data comes after a volatile year for the stock market.
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-households-lost-during-stock-market-rut-fall

  16. From the first link:

    ‘Mike Chang, a 30-year-old founder and angel investor, told Business Insider earlier this year that he regretted moving from Los Angeles to Austin during the pandemic. “Austin is where ambition goes to die,” he told the publication.’

    1. From the article:

      Managing Director Amos Schwartzfarb, who’s been with Techstars in Austin for eight years

      I used to work for a dude who later go involved with Techstars in Boulder. It seemed mostly like pie in the sky kind of stuff.

  17. ‘A downtown San Jose housing tower built by a China-based real estate firm whose top boss has been linked to a Bay Area fraud case may face foreclosure proceedings due to delinquent homeowners dues’

    That’s good writing, keep up the good work!

    1. That reminds me of a scene from SpaceBalls:

      Dark Helmet: Before you die there is something you should know about us, Lone Star.

      Lone Starr: What?

      Dark Helmet: I am your father’s brother’s nephew’s cousin’s former roommate.

      Lone Starr: What’s that make us?

      Dark Helmet: Absolutely nothing!

  18. ‘Since July, the median single-family home sales price in Bend has gone from a high of $800,000 to a low of $730,000 in November’

    It’s a good thing everybody put 20% down!

  19. ‘builders are in a tough spot after buying the land and materials, then spending more than one year on construction, only to face a declining market upon completion. If they needed to sell above $5-million to make a solid profit, he understands their reluctance to sell for substantially less. ‘At $4.5-million a lot of these guys are losing their shirts,’ Mr. Kutyan says. But many will end up selling far below even their discounted asking prices’

    That’s the spirit Andre!

    3. Why would anyone buy a home in Poway? Home of the $105 million school bond that will cost over $1 BILLION to repay. There’s a giant sucking sound coming from their school district. And it’s the local taxpayers who will be sucked dry.

      “Residents are already on the hook for nearly $1.43 billion in general obligation bond debt that will come due between now and 2054, on top of the millions already paid to bondholders since 2002 to repay $373 million the district received for past facilities construction and renovation projects, district records show.

      The payments to come will come from future local property taxes and are the lingering effects of several bond deals made since 2002, particularly a 2011 capital appreciation bond deal that will cost taxpayers nearly $1 billion to repay $105 million.”

      2. There are 100s of school districts that have borrowed money using capital appreciation bonds. The brokers at the investment banks who put these deals together should be in jail.

  21. ‘agents say owners of investment properties are being forced to sell at a loss or risk being unable to pay their mortgage. Orion Rodgers, another short-term rental property manager in Victoria, manages about 30 properties. He said he also worried his business will be ‘erased’ under the new law. ‘People will face heavy losses … and the people that are going to buy them are not there. No one’s there yet because the interest rates are so high and the bar for entry to purchase is so high’

    You’ve learned 2 HBB truths Orion. Short term rentals where they don’t belong always fail eventually. And Tiff broke it off in yer a$$.

    1. “Orion Rodgers, another short-term rental property manager in Victoria, manages about 30 properties. He said he also worried his business will be ‘erased’ under the new law.”

      Highly-leveraged greed often kills financial prosperity.

  22. ‘Overall, the FOMO indicator ‘allows us to comfortably say that there is no frenzy underway in the residential real estate market on average throughout New Zealand,’ the report said’

    They think the public needs regular FOMO updates in New Zealand.

  23. ‘swelling inventory is the metric he is watching most closely. Buyers have more leverage now that total transactions are down by approximately 40 per cent from the springtime in the central market, he adds. Sellers who don’t recognize that dynamics have changed will be disappointed and unsuccessful, Mr. Bibby says. ‘I think sometimes people are chasing a market that’s long gone’

    Those were my winnahs! Chris? This is always how it plays out.

  24. WHILE HIKING IN THE UTAH MOUNTAINS MAN COMES UPON A MAMA COUGAR WITH CUBS 😲

    HIKING ALL ALONE WITH NO GUN IS JUST STUPID & I BET HE NEVER MADE THAT MISTAKE AGAIN. THIS HAD TO HAVE BEEN THE SCARIEST DAY OF HIS LIFE. YOU CAN’T TURN & RUN OR YOU’D BE SUPPER THAT NIGHT. 2 LEGS CAN’T BEAT 4, SIMPLE AS THAT.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/rSo8aYU4NBLb/

    4:40.

  25. Do you worry that deflation will doom China to a lost decade of falling asset prices, like Japan experienced from 1990-2000?

    Where is AlbuquerqueDan when you need a hopeful word about China’s economic growth prospects?

    1. Financial Times
      Chinese economy
      China’s deflation worsens as economic pressures mount
      Consumer price data comes after policymakers pledge to step up fiscal and monetary support
      A shopping district in Beijing
      China’s consumer prices fell 0.5% year on year in November
      Thomas Hale in Shanghai 2 hours ago

      China’s consumer prices fell 0.5 per cent year on year in November, the sharpest decline in three years as the world’s second-largest economy grapples with worsening deflation.

      Consumer prices dropped by more than the 0.2 per cent decline forecast by a Bloomberg survey of economists and exceeded October’s fall of 0.2 per cent.

      Producer prices, which are measured at factory gates and heavily driven by the cost of commodities and raw materials, dropped by 3 per cent and have remained in negative territory for the past year.

      Consumer prices entered deflationary territory in July and briefly rose in August before falling again in October. The deflationary trend adds to an array of economic pressures facing the country’s policymakers, including a liquidity crunch in the property sector, weak trade data and a slowing recovery from three years of zero-Covid lockdowns and border closures.

      Consumer demand has struggled to fully rebound in 2023, while policymakers have set an economic growth target of just 5 per cent, the lowest rate in decades.
      …

      1. “Consumer price data comes after policymakers pledge to step up fiscal and monetary support”

        Does pushing on a string work when asset prices are already CR8Ring?

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