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When You’ve Got Something Like This, Buyers Are In Control

A report from Motley Fool. “By mid-2022, when my good friend had started to look for a house to buy, mortgage rates were already much higher. Not only did she have cash in a savings account to put toward a home purchase, but she was able to liquidate some investments to free up additional cash. She figured that by making a cash offer, she’d not only avoid having to pay a higher mortgage rate, but also, give herself an edge over the competition at a time when inventory was very limited. After losing out on more than one home as a cash buyer, my friend was eventually successful in purchasing a home. And she did, indeed, pay for that home in cash. But that’s a decision she now regrets.”

“She spent the majority of her savings on her home purchase. At the time she became a homeowner, she still had an emergency fund with enough money to cover almost six months of bills. The problem, though, is that her bills began to rise immediately after she moved into her house. First, the air conditioning stopped working. Next, she discovered some issues with her plumbing. When winter rolled around, she realized her heating system needed a major overhaul, to the point where replacing it became her best bet. And she’s faced countless additional problems due to having bought an older home.”

“All told, my friend has been in her home for less than 18 months, and she’s already pretty much drained her savings. If something major were to go wrong at this point, she’d be looking at having to borrow money to cover the cost. And that’s a cruddy situation to be in, because chances are, if she does have to borrow, she’ll be looking at a much higher interest rate than the interest rate she would’ve paid on a mortgage signed in mid-2022.”

The Montpelier Bridge in Vermont. “Six months after the July 2023 flood, several Montpelier homeowners are still living in limbo with substantially damaged homes, repairs on the order of $300,000 (sometimes on a home valued at less than that), and no information about if or when they might qualify for a Federal Emergency Management Administration buyout, or if they are required to raise their homes above flood levels (which could cost $100,000 or more). A nature educator, special education teacher, and single mom, Mary Zentara thought long and hard about buying a house at 189 State Street, next to U.S. Route 2 and the Winooski River. She decided to buy the house, built in 1850, and hope for the best until her daughter’s graduation from Montpelier High School, even if the mortgage did require flood insurance that cost $3,000 per year with a $10,000 deductible.”

“Zentara followed protocol and removed everything in the home including the walls, floors, furnace, and sheetrock from four-feet down, and it now awaits an expensive repair. Meanwhile, she is paying on a mortgage and flood insurance for a home she can’t occupy and still doesn’t know if she qualifies for a FEMA buy-out. Believing she had no other options, Zentara tried to sell the house for $220,000, as did another flood victim at 120 Elm St. ‘Without a buyout or financial assistance to elevate the house, I would have to finish paying the mortgage, lose all the value of my house, and then I would have to pay to demolish my house and move it away,’ Zentara said. ‘That is a possibility. How can that be a possibility? How can that be?'”

“Edson Neveu bought the home in 2017, in part because of its proximity to the school, and it came with a separate rental unit for added income. ‘I made a really logical decision. I work in Waterbury. My parents live 40 minutes from here. I wanted my kids in a good school system. I knew I couldn’t afford a single family home without a rental. I bought this house for $220,000 in 2017 because it was a smart financial decision … I knew I was going to pay a small fortune in flood insurance … I went into this with my eyes wide open.'”

“She doesn’t want a buyout. ‘The only thing (a buyout) does is make the bank whole,’ she said. ‘What they’ve told us for fair market value, if I am lucky it will cover my mortgage. … they will leave us with no home, with no money, with nothing … the house would have to be knocked down. It stays green in perpetuity.’ After seven months of filling out forms and waiting for help, Edson Neveu said ‘I feel so betrayed by the system. I bought all the insurance. I paid all the fees. How is it possible that I am in a system and will be left with nothing?'”

NBC Los Angeles in California. “Piles of trash and loud noise at all hours of the night — these are some of the things neighbors tell the NBC4 I-Team they have experienced because tourists are taking over their communities. And with no regulations on short-term rentals in unincorporated cities of Los Angeles County, they say they feel stuck. ‘Our street has become a de facto hotel because we’re dealing with a lot of short-term rentals, which is affecting pretty much the quality of life,’ said Luz Loza, who has lived in the City Terrace neighborhood of East LA for three decades.”

“Sonia Roman has lived in the same community for more than a decade. Both women shared their concerns about short-term rentals. ‘They party, they smoke. It’s just trash is being disposed in our containers,’ Loza said. ‘Having these vacationers, tourists coming to these short-term rentals has really disrupted our weekdays. We can’t sleep because at all hours, they’re either partying or making noise,’ Roman added. Loza says she has counted up to seven short-term rentals on her street alone.”

The Ojai Valley News in California. “According to the agent for the property owners of 1450 Maricopa Highway a 14.1-acre vacant parcel across from Nordhoff Junior and Senior High School, an escrow agreement was canceled Nov. 16, resulting in a proposal for 2,506 housing units being quashed. The proposal was submitted to the city by the buyer-developer. Ojai-based real estate broker Ted Moore, who confirmed he represents the property owners, Carty Ojai LLC, spoke with the Ojai Valley News on Jan. 12. Moore said, ‘Escrow is canceled. There is no deal, it’s terminated. … There is no project.'”

From CBS News. “Despite some large companies calling for a return to the office following the pandemic, remote work has taken root with a large segment of the workforce, leaving office spaces empty and real estate executives reeling. But it’s not just the real estate industry that is impacted. The effects of vacant office space could ripple through the economy because many buildings are financed through short-term loans from banks. If real estate firms are unable to make rent money from commercial tenants, they may default on their loans, increasing the risk for banks.”

“That’s what led real estate company RXR to default on a $240 million bank loan at 61 Broadway in New York City. With half his office tower sitting vacant, RXR chief executive Scott Rechler says it was ‘time to face reality.’ ‘This post-COVID world of higher interest rates, the changing nature of how people work and live, we’re not going back to where we were,’ Rechler said. ‘And it’s going to be turbulent.’ Whether the trouble with offices ends in a simple pricing correction or becomes a systemic crisis, likely there’s pain coming for building owners, banks and for cities themselves.”

“‘In the long run, property taxes on those buildings will also fall by 40%. And these commercial property tax revenues are an important component of the budget of local governments, which means less money for police departments, public safety, less money for sanitation, trash collection,’ said Columbia Business School real estate professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. ‘And some people are going to decide that, you know, the quality of life has deteriorated too much and they want out. And, in fact, that’s what we’ve seen.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “In a boutique building in midtown Toronto near private De La Salle College, this 1,780-square-foot unit has older finishes and obstructed sightlines. But the deal-breaker for the first buyer to make an offer was a status certificate that revealed that the terrace off the kitchen was not the unit’s private space, but a common element of the building since it was also accessible from the stairwell. ‘Unfortunately, my clients purchased this years ago under the premise it was a private terrace,’ said agent Andre Kutyan.”

“For another buyer, arriving after the seller had dropped their price for the third time, the matter was a minor trade-off to get such a large, central property for $1.02-million – $379,000 less than the asking price just four months previously. ‘It’s a buyer’s market to begin with, and when you’ve got something like this where it’s not a straightforward sale and there are some issues, buyers are in control,’ said Mr. Kutyan.”

The Telegraph in the UK. “Bargain-hunting home buyers have caused a spike in ‘gazundering,’ a tactic when a buyer makes a lower offer at the eleventh hour to force the seller to cut a property’s price. In November, 39pc of properties sold by the house buying company Quick Move Now were subject to gazundering, up from 13pc in October and at a level not seen since 2008. In December, traditionally a quiet month for the property market, gazundering affected a quarter of sales. Those who gazunder are taking advantage of a weak property market, by gambling that the seller is so far into the process that they will have no choice but to accept. The gambit is often made just before exchanging contracts to force the hand of the vendor.”

“There are certainly some good deals to be had. Will Watson, of property finders The Buying Solution, helped two clients buy properties in December at discounts of 10pc to 15pc compared with similar homes sold a year earlier. Meanwhile, Nigel Bishop, of the buying agency Recoco Property Search, found his client a property in Cornwall which was on the market for £2.1m but they managed to get the seller to accept a price of £1.85m.”

“As well as bargaining on price, buyers are negotiating very hard from the outset on other factors. The buyer of a house being sold recently by Josephine Ashby, of John Bray Estates in north Cornwall, was ‘incredibly demanding’, and asked for ‘a huge amount of extras to be included in the sale, from furniture right down to the family’s Hunter wellies.’ She added: ‘The sellers were exasperated, but it made sense to take a deep breath and see the sale through.'”

From Vietnam Plus. “The number of high-end condominium units accounted for 75% in Hanoi and 84% in Ho Chi Minh City in 2023’s total new launches. On the other hand, the mid-point segment, with selling prices more budget-friendly to the majority of the population, accounted for only a small proportion, while the affordable segment has completely disappeared in both markets in the past few years. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, Associate Director of CBRE Vietnam’s Housing Project Marketing, said at the end of 2023, real estate companies had many policies on reducing selling prices, with a condition that buyers must implement faster payment to receive the house. This was a business strategy and the decreasing trend was only for some projects in HCM City.”

“In terms of absorption rate, Hanoi and HCM City recorded more than 22,000 residential units sold (including both condominiums and landed properties) in 2023, but representing only half of the units sold in 2022. However, there was an improvement in the absorption rate in the second half of 2023, thanks to the proactive efforts of developers. These efforts included implementing preferential sales policies such as extended payment schedules and offering discounts of up to 40% for early payment.”

South China Morning Post. “Distressed Chinese developer Logan Group has pledged to trim its debt level to align with the size of its business, after winning approval from some offshore creditors and its controlling owner to reorganise almost US$8 billion of debts. The Shenzhen-based developer aims to reduce its leverage by US$2.6 billion to US$3 billion over its offshore restructuring period, according to a stock exchange filing. The firm had 227 billion yuan (U$32 billion) of total liabilities at the end of June last year, according to its latest financial accounts.”

“‘This suggests that the company will need to adjust its balance sheet to a reasonable level to achieve a sustainable capital structure,’ it added. ‘The group has made significant efforts to maintain stable operations, ensure the delivery of units to homebuyers, and preserve its resources, including both onshore and offshore assets and cash for the purpose of restructuring.’ Logan’s shares, halted in Hong Kong on January 12 for the restructuring update, will resume trading on Monday. They have dropped 1.6 per cent this month to HK$0.60, after tumbling 51 per cent in 2023. The stock has crashed nearly 96 per cent from a high in June 2020, wiping out HK$81.5 billion (US$10.4 billion) in market capitalisation. Chinese developers have muddled through the past three years under financial distress, triggering more than US$100 billion of debt defaults.”

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This Post Has 83 Comments

  1. ‘Meanwhile, she is paying on a mortgage and flood insurance for a home she can’t occupy and still doesn’t know if she qualifies for a FEMA buy-out. Believing she had no other options, Zentara tried to sell the house for $220,000, as did another flood victim at 120 Elm St. ‘Without a buyout or financial assistance to elevate the house, I would have to finish paying the mortgage, lose all the value of my house, and then I would have to pay to demolish my house and move it away,’ Zentara said. ‘That is a possibility. How can that be a possibility? How can that be?’

    Cuz you are a winnah! Mary. Lots of little feet stamping in this article.

    1. “Not given me a reason for being let go”

      The reason is because I said so! How hard is that?

      Also, she was “Ramping” during the holiday. I looked it up but still confused. What is Ramping?

      2. I think she was referring to the break in/probation period new employees go through. At the end of the period it was decided that she was underperforming:

        CEO Matthew Prince claimed the company had fired around 40 sales people out of more than 1500, which he branded a “normal quarter”.

        He said they can often tell within the first three months if a sales hire is going to be successful or not, even when those three months fall during a holiday period.

        1. Yesterday I said I bought a $50k car, its a V6, not-turbo old school japanese honda MDX. I would never feel comfortable spending that much on a car. I spent $33k on a chevy in 2016 and I still have that now, going strong. But without going into the weeds here, my small garage only fits a 70″ car, and the quality and selection of used cars last year was abysmal. The among new cars, we wanted 2nd seven passenger vehicle, V6, no turbo v4 BS, and I’ve got more kids than the average guy, and with the 70″ height restriction it was a grand cherokkee which probably was too tall, the GMC acadia the MDX or the lincoln aviator. We settled on the MDX. It should last a while. I don’t want to out myself here but the vehicle I traded in for the MDX was an old chevy, beat to hell, they only gave me $500 for it, and they were doing me the favor. It’s been a really, really bad time to buy a car, and some times when you old chevy has 10 things wrong with it at once, some of which put your family in danger while on the road, you bite the bullet and pay $10k more for a car than you wanted to spend.

          1. “…it was a grand cherokkee which probably was too tall, the GMC acadia the MDX or the lincoln aviator.”

            The MDX was the right choice. Congrats!

  3. “All told, my friend has been in her home for less than 18 months, and she’s already pretty much drained her savings. If something major were to go wrong at this point, she’d be looking at having to borrow money to cover the cost.

    Who knew that older shacks could be money pits?

    1. I’m surprised she had an inspection.

      “When you buy a home, you never know what hidden problems may be lurking. This holds true even if your home undergoes a thorough inspection, which my friend had.”

      1. The ‘hidden problems’ that freak me out lately are bugs. I know an appraiser and he says he sees cockroaches all the time in multiunit buildings. And in my SFH, every known bug in the universe seems to want to get infest my lower level. Lately, probably because of warmer weather, the oriential cockroach, southerners call them water bugs, they live outside but head inside to lower levels during warmer weather, and they always find a way in and they’re nearly impossible to get rid of. I’ve put boric acid in every crevice and void I can reach all around my entire house. They’ve survived the relatively warmer winters here in northern IL and they’re not really known for living here. But they somehow manage to survive these last few years and I find them outside the house all of the time, in the yard, under mulch, near a garbage can, under a sidewalk. My kid saw one on the walkway next to my house back in warmer December and said “what is that strange bug?” it’s an oriential cockroach, they now live year round in Northern IL. I hope the colder weather now for a week on end kills some of them, the ones that aren’t living in the insulated siding of all my neighbor’s homes, but I’m not hopeful. On the other hand, several years back I had the Spotted wing drosophila little fruit fly damage all of my rasperries and blackberries on the side of my house, but the following winter had that -30 coldest ever arctic blast, and they didn’t come back the next year, so we’ll see I guess.

  4. She decided to buy the house, built in 1850, and hope for the best….

    Hope is not a strategy, Mary.

  5. ‘If real estate firms are unable to make rent money from commercial tenants, they may default on their loans, increasing the risk for banks. That’s what led real estate company RXR to default on a $240 million bank loan at 61 Broadway in New York City. With half his office tower sitting vacant, RXR chief executive Scott Rechler says it was ‘time to face reality.’ ‘This post-COVID world of higher interest rates, the changing nature of how people work and live, we’re not going back to where we were’

    Just like that Scott, you gave it away?

  6. Economy
    Homes made in factories were supposed to save us from the housing crisis, but the companies that make them are failing
    Eliza Relman
    Jan 14, 2024, 6:43 AM ET
    A crane taking four 15-foot-wide by 60-foot-long modular home segments and stacking them on one on top of the other to make a new duplex in Aurora, Colorado.
    Hyoung Chang/Getty Images

    – Modular, or factory-built, housing could help boost efficiency and cut costs for homebuilding.

    – But many modular construction companies have failed in recent years.

    – One construction-industry expert said much more than government policy needed to change.

    Factory-built housing is increasingly being hailed as a solution to the housing shortage and affordability crisis.

    But the world of modular housing, which includes multi-unit apartment buildings and conventional-looking houses, is littered with companies that have gone bust. One of these was Katerra, a SoftBank-backed firm that sought to be a one-stop shop for factory-made buildings. After investors poured billions of dollars into the much-hyped company, it filed for bankruptcy in 2021.

    Mark Erlich, a former officer of the New England Regional Council of Carpenters and the author of “The Way We Build: Restoring Dignity to Construction Work,” chalks many of the failures up to inexperience with the construction industry. Investors from outside the industry have come in with ambitious plans to disrupt it but little of the expertise necessary to find and fill a niche in the market.

    “Katerra was started by guys from Silicon Valley who were going to show the stupid construction industry what a bunch of dinosaurs they were,” Erlich said. That “arrogance” built the foundation for their demise.
    …
    https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-starter-homes-manufactured-modular-housing-failing-real-estate-construction-2024-1

    1. “One of these was Katerra, a SoftBank-backed firm that sought to be a one-stop shop for factory-made buildings.”

      How many failed concepts did SoftBank venture capitalize during the Fed’s protracted period of extraordinary accommodation?

      And how can banks like this survive in the tight money era we have entered?

  7. ‘Without a buyout or financial assistance to elevate the house, I would have to finish paying the mortgage, lose all the value of my house, and then I would have to pay to demolish my house and move it away,’ Zentara said.

    Welp, at least you weren’t throwing away money on rent.

  8. ‘ The buyer of a house being sold recently by Josephine Ashby, of John Bray Estates in north Cornwall, was ‘incredibly demanding’, and asked for ‘a huge amount of extras to be included in the sale, from furniture right down to the family’s Hunter wellies.’ She added: ‘The sellers were exasperated, but it made sense to take a deep breath and see the sale through’

    That’s the spirit buyers, take their rubber boots too!

    https://hunterboots.com/

    1. If it’s any satisfaction, sellers, you’ll soon have the pleasure of seeing the knife-catcher buyers schlonged bigly when Housing Bubble 2.0 implodes for real.

      1. I was thinking the same thing: the joke will be on the buyers when they find themselves underwater almost immediately.

  9. ‘there was an improvement in the absorption rate in the second half of 2023, thanks to the proactive efforts of developers. These efforts included implementing preferential sales policies such as extended payment schedules and offering discounts of up to 40% for early payment’

    Fook those previous buyers!

    ‘‘This suggests that the company will need to adjust its balance sheet to a reasonable level to achieve a sustainable capital structure,’ it added…Logan’s shares, halted in Hong Kong on January 12 for the restructuring update, will resume trading on Monday. They have dropped 1.6 per cent this month to HK$0.60, after tumbling 51 per cent in 2023. The stock has crashed nearly 96 per cent from a high in June 2020, wiping out HK$81.5 billion (US$10.4 billion) in market capitalisation’

    Fook the gringo bond bagholders!

  10. “First, the air conditioning stopped working. Next, she discovered some issues with her plumbing. When winter rolled around, she realized her heating system needed a major overhaul, to the point where replacing it became her best bet.”

    Look closely at the conditionn of the used home you want to buy if the price seems too good to be true.

    “And she’s faced countless additional problems due to having bought an older home.”

    The age of the home wasn’t necessarily her problem, so much as deferred maintenance that she inherited at the point of purchase. I wonder if a good inspection could have uncovered all these maintenance issues before she had to burn through her savings to address them?

    2. I wonder if a good inspection could have uncovered all these maintenance issues

      She had one.

  11. ‘resulting in a proposal for 2,506 housing units being quashed. The proposal was submitted to the city by the buyer-developer…‘Escrow is canceled. There is no deal, it’s terminated. … There is no project’

    I’ve never heard of this sh$thole Ted, but it’s in K-fna? Have you looked under yer El Camino in the front yard lately? There’s gold nuggets everywhere!

    1. Ojai is upscale, near Santa Barbara and in a nice stretch of the SoCal coast. My thought was the project was likely cancelled because the locals don’t want a bunch of new residents living in denser housing.

  12. Markets
    Bitcoin Traders Eye Support at $40K as ETF Contrarian Bets Prove Right
    The approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. was much anticipated and well-priced, so the event will likely be a short- to mid-term top for the price, analysts said.
    By Shaurya Malwa
    AccessTimeIconJan 15, 2024 at 3:08 a.m. PST
    Updated Jan 15, 2024 at 3:14 a.m. PST
    …
    https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/01/15/bitcoin-traders-eye-support-at-40k-as-etf-contrarian-bets-prove-right/

    1. My $1,000 investment in FBTC will be worth ONE MILLION DOLLARS by the end of the year.

      To the moon, Alice!

  13. Those who gazunder are taking advantage of a weak property market, by gambling that the seller is so far into the process that they will have no choice but to accept.

    Gosh, this opportunistic exploitation of sellers’ anxiety to get out from under their alligators seems like FOMO in reverse. The ditty playing in my head is “I’m a Gazunderer,” set to the tune of “I’m a Wanderer.”

  14. Chinese developers have muddled through the past three years under financial distress, triggering more than US$100 billion of debt defaults.”

    But…but…Communist central planning!

  16. Foreclosure Blowing Up?
    Angry Mortgage Podcast
    2 hours ago

    Power of Sale / Foreclosure / Bank Ordered Sale; whatever you want to call it is making a surge in the early weeks of January. One Private Lender files 27 Power of Sale Actions in the last 7 business days in Ontario & that is NOT business as usual. What’s happening? Does it mean Banks’ may be in trouble (NO!) There are some specific problems associated with all these Foreclosures that are revealing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrJe1El_HSA

    6:13. K-da.

    1. I was looking at the WEF website.
      The operative word is “Monopolies” of Mega Corporations and other co-conspirators coming together under FOUNDER Klaus Schwab to form a more perfect Global Stakeholder Governance Dictorship formally called FACISM.
      The objective of WEF is that
      Representative governments by the people should be eliminated for the vision of unelected self Interest groups forming public/private partnerships for a One World Order dictorship.
      The WEF, has worked so hard for the last 50 years in the infiltration of global governments to implement the One World Order/Great Reset/4th Industrial revolution .
      The WEF, will hand out their Crystal Awards at Davos for the greatest contributors to advancing the Great Narratives.
      The 2030 UN Sustainable Earth Agenda is foremost in our minds at the WEF, as the blueprint of the Global vision moving forward.
      The WEF has the challenge this year of controlling misinformation and free speech, that threatens the Great Narratives.
      Who controls technology will control the World. Therefore, we will advance AI moving forward.

      Anyway, you should just listen to these people talk , it needs to be mocked.

      1. Anyway, you should just listen to these people talk , it needs to be mocked.

        AFter their puppets are tarred and feathered, and sent packing. But that will be hard as the Deep State answers to them.

      3. Klaus Schwab Releases “The Great Narrative” As Sequel To “The Great Reset”

        https://www.weforum.org/press/2022/01/klaus-schwab-releases-the-great-narrative-as-sequel-to-the-great-reset/

        – World Economic Forum Founder and Executive Chairman Klaus Schwab and his co-author Thierry Malleret today release their new book “The Great Narrative”

        – “The Great Narrative” encapsulates the Davos Vision, and explores how we can shape a constructive, common narrative for the future

        – The book is the second instalment in “The Great Reset” series, which has been a global best-seller with over 250,000 copies and over a dozen translations

        Geneva, Switzerland, 7 January 2021– Authors Klaus Schwab and Thierry Malleret, whose book “The Great Reset” in 2020 became a global best-seller, on Friday released their next book, “The Great Narrative”. The book derives from a collaborative effort with some of the world’s leading thinkers, and describes how we can create a more resilient, inclusive and sustainable future.

        “Going into 2022, we all look forward to a better future. Yet the challenges we are facing coming out of the pandemic are multi-fold and interconnected. The Great Narrative shows what the way forward could be, and what the role of cooperation, innovation, morality, public policies and business can be,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum.

        The Great Narrative book relies to a substantial extent, but not exclusively, on interviews conducted with 50 of the world’s foremost global thinkers and opinion-makers who come from a broad spectrum of academic disciplines and from diverse geographies and backgrounds. The thinkers include

        Economists such as Mariana Mazzucato, Dambisa Moyo, Branko Milanovic, Niall Ferguson, Justin Lifu Yin, Raghuram Rajan, Moises Naim, and Rebecca HendersonFuturists, philosophers and scientists such as Amy Webb, Marina Gorbis, Annita Allen-Castellito, Lu Zhi, Helen Steward, Amie Thomasson, David Sinclair, and John Rockström

        “This book is about ideas and how they may coalesce to form a Great Narrative,” said Thierry Malleret, CEO of the Monthly Barometer and co-author of the book. “It is also, and most importantly, about how some of these ideas may or should make their way into policy-and decision-making. They go beyond the realm of theory and are a call to action.”

        The Great Narrative is published by Forum Publishing, the publishing arm of the World Economic Forum. It has 253 pages, and will be distributed around the world as of Friday, January 7. The book will be available directly for purchase through Amazon. Digital copies will retail at $|€|£ 4.99, print copies at $/€/£ 14.99. It can be downloaded for free (US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Brazil, Mexico) from Amazon Kindle as of 7 January. The action runs through January 10.

    1. I can’t recall the price of actual gold ever fluctuating as violently as cryptocurrencies have for the entire term of their existence, including bitcoin. Anyone who equates these two asset classes most likely wants to sell you something which is prone to CR8R.

    1. HOUSING
      Published January 15, 2024 5:00am EST
      The ‘old American Dream died,’ Realtor details salary needed to buy a home, afford a middle class life in 2024
      We have a ‘cycle’ keeping people ‘out of the middle class,’ realtor says
      By Kira Mautone FOXBusiness

      Americans now need to make $120K a year to afford a typical middle-class life and qualify to purchase a home, one expert discusses.

      “I think most of us in America would define the middle class as somebody who can work a 40-hour-a-week career and can have the income to purchase the average home in America,” Freddie Smith, an Orlando realtor and TikTok creator, told Fox News Digital.

      The TikToker, whose videos explore millennial and Gen Z struggles to afford a home and the general cost of living in today’s economic climate, dissected the common factors of living a middle-class existence.

      AMERICANS LEAVING COUNTRY DECLARE LIFE ABORAD THE NEW ‘AMERICAN DREAM’ IN VIRAL VIDEOS
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/the-old-american-dream-died-realtor-details-salary-needed-to-buy-a-home-afford-a-middle-class-life-in-2024

      1. ‘”A lot of us grew up middle class, and we watched what middle class was in the 80s and 90s as millennials. And nowadays, what has moved the goalpost more than anything is the housing market,” the relator said.

        Smith explained how, just a few years ago, $60-$70K a year would have been sufficient to qualify for a home.

        With the average cost of a house being around $400K-$420K in 2024, people’s salaries would need to be around $120K a year for people to even qualify, Smith explained.’

        Since houses in coastal California cost $1.2 million on up, I guess you need around $360K a year for people to even qualify out here.

        ‘relator’

        Correct spelling finally revealed…

      1. Funny, they’ve been living under Li’l Fidel’s dictatorship for years, but are afraid of Trump.

  22. Huge grocery bills slam shoppers who get no relief from cooling inflation (1/14/2024):

    “Americans are furious as they continue to get crushed by high grocery store bills despite inflation nearing pre-COVID levels, according to a new survey.

    The latest Axio Vibe Check survey of 2,120 adults in December revealed that about 72% of respondents felt inflation was still hitting hard at the grocery store.

    Nearly 60 percent also said they feel anger, anxiousnes, and resignation whenever they shop for groceries as they struggle to make their budgets work.”

    https://nypost.com/2024/01/14/news/shoppers-crushed-by-grocery-store-prices-despite-cooling-inflation-survey/

    1. Buy stocks because a recession is extremely unlikely in 2024, according to a Wall Street strategist
      Matthew Fox Jan 15, 2024, 5:15 AM PST
      People shop at Mall of America
      Abbie Parr/AAP

      – Investors should buy stocks in 2024 because a recession appears unlikely, according to the Carson Group.

      – Easing financial conditions and a pickup in the housing market should bode well for the economy this year.

      – “With markets expecting the pivot sooner rather than later, we’re already seeing previous headwinds fading,” Carson Group said.

      Investors should buy stocks in 2024 because an economic recession appears increasingly unlikely, according to a recent note from the Carson Group.

      A proprietary indicator developed by investment strategists at the Carson Group shows that economic activity in the US and globally is growing along its long-term trend.

      That’s in sharp contrast with the Conference Boards’ popular Leading Economic Index, which has declined for 20 months in a row and has wrongly suggested that a recession is imminent for more than a year.

      While the LEI is made up of 10 components that mostly focus on the goods economy, Carson Group’s index has more than 20 components and is weighted heavily on consumer-related sectors.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/buy-stocks-recession-forecast-extremely-unlikely-bonds-us-equities-overweight-2024-1

      1. “…has wrongly suggested that a recession is imminent for more than a year.”

        How can you know whether a recession is currently imminent?

        Does the fact that one hasn’t happened yet mean it is not imminent?

      2. weighted heavily on consumer-related sectors

        Last week I bought some frozen Birdseye baby sweet peas. Just a couple of years ago a 16oz bag was $2. Now it’s a 13oz bag and the price is nearly $4. I suspect this is not included in the CPI.

        That’s how you show a strong “consumer economy” without showing CPI increases.

    2. Mark Hulbert
      Why Donald Trump is unlikely to get his wish for a 2024 U.S. stock-market crash
      Published: Jan. 15, 2024 at 2:24 p.m. ET
      By Mark Hulbert

      – Odds of a Wall Street plunge occurring this year are significantly below average

      – Donald Trump has expressed hope that the U.S. stock market would crash in 2024.
      Getty Images

      Donald Trump is unlikely to get his wish that a U.S. stock-market crash occurs this year.

      I’m referring to the former U.S. president’s comments last week that he hopes the market crashes in 2024, since if he is elected in November and takes office a year from now, he doesn’t want to be another Herbert Hoover. Hoover was President when the stock market crashed in 1929.

      The stock market did plunge in two of the last four presidential-election years, so it’s understandable why one would worry that 2024 could see a repeat. In 2008, in the middle of the Global Financial Crisis, the S&P 500 SPX lost 38.5% for the year. In 2020, as the economy ground to a halt because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the S&P 500 lost 34% in little more than a month’s time.

      It’s possible that a crash could occur at any time, of course, so a crash this year can’t be ruled out. Nevertheless, the odds of one occurring this year are significantly below average. That’s according to the latest “State Street US Froth Forecasts,” which are derived from research on crashes conducted by Robin Greenwood, Professor of Banking and Finance at Harvard Business School.

      In that research, Greenwood and his co-authors found that it’s possible to identify when there is an elevated probability of a crash. In an interview, Greenwood said that “crash probabilities are low” right now, not only for the market as a whole but “across the board” for individual market sectors as well.

      Greenwood’s model is based on a number of factors, such as performance over the trailing two-year period, volatility, share turnover, IPO activity and the price path of the trailing two-year runup. For example, he and his fellow researchers found that when an industry beats the market by 150 or more percentage points over a two-year period, there’s an 80% probability that it will crash — which they define as a drop of at least 40% over the subsequent two years. As you can see from the accompanying chart, State Street is reporting low crash probabilities for all sectors — in each case well below the average forecasted crash probabilities of the past five years.

      These probabilities don’t mean that stocks will have a great year in 2024. A new bear market could begin this year without the decline satisfying the researchers’ definition of a crash.

      Nevertheless, the takeaway from the State Street US Froth Forecasts is that there are bigger things to worry about this year than the possibility of a crash.
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-donald-trump-is-unlikely-to-get-his-wish-for-a-2024-u-s-stock-market-crash-c7e42e64

      1. If it crashes this year, the effects will be felt well beyond 2024. Usually the occupant of the Oval Office is blamed for whatever is happening at the moment. Or maybe people only blame the prez if he is from the party they don’t support?

    3. The S&P 500 looks risky, there’s a 75% chance of recession this year, and a firing frenzy is looming, elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach says
      Theron Mohamed
      Jan 15, 2024, 6:08 AM PST
      Read in app
      Jeffrey Gundlach
      Richard Drew/AP

      – Jeffrey Gundlach says the S&P 500 is a bad bet now and the Magnificent Seven will probably falter.

      – The investor sees a 75% chance of a recession this year based on the yield curve and other signals.

      – Gundlach expects inflation, interest rates, and unemployment to be higher than most expect.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gundlach-doubleline-spx-stock-market-outlook-recession-economy-unemployment-layoffs-2024-1

    1. If you worry about needing to bug out someday, this would be ideal, though the runway isn’t long enough for a private jet. Just keep the Cessna fueled and ready to go.

  26. ‘I work in Waterbury. My parents live 40 minutes from here. I wanted my kids in a good school system. I knew I couldn’t afford a single family home without a rental. I bought this house for $220,000 in 2017 because it was a smart financial decision … I knew I was going to pay a small fortune in flood insurance … I went into this with my eyes wide open’

    ‘She doesn’t want a buyout. ‘The only thing (a buyout) does is make the bank whole,’ she said. ‘What they’ve told us for fair market value, if I am lucky it will cover my mortgage. … they will leave us with no home, with no money, with nothing … the house would have to be knocked down’

    Edson, it’s not often the HBB gets a better example of a public a$$ pounding than this.

    ‘It stays green in perpetuity’ ‘I bought this house for $220,000 in 2017 because it was a smart financial decision’

    Good luck giving it away now Edson.

  27. Antiwar — Houthi Missile Hits US-Owned Cargo Ship in the Red Sea (1/15/2024):

    “US Central Command said Monday that a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile hit a US-owned cargo ship in the Red Sea, an escalation that came a few days after the US and Britain bombed dozens of Houthi targets in Yemen.

    The missile struck the Gibraltar Eagle, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship that’s owned by the US-based Eagle Bulk Shipping. CENTCOM said there were no casualties or damage reported.

    Eagle Bulk said there was “limited damage” but that the ship was able to leave the area. “As a result of the impact, the vessel suffered limited damage to a cargo hold but is stable and is heading out of the area,” the company said.

    Before Monday, the Houthis had not targeted US commercial shipping and said their attacks were limited to Israel-linked vessels. But that changed after the US and UK escalated the situation by bombing Yemen on Friday. After the strikes, a Houthi spokesman said that “all American-British interests have become legitimate targets.”

    https://news.antiwar.com/2024/01/15/houthi-missile-hits-us-owned-cargo-ship-in-the-red-sea/

    Legitimate targets?

    Get ready for $5 gas again, cattle tax slaves.

  28. ‘Our street has become a de facto hotel because we’re dealing with a lot of short-term rentals, which is affecting pretty much the quality of life’ Sonia Roman has lived in the same community for more than a decade. Both women shared their concerns about short-term rentals. ‘They party, they smoke. It’s just trash is being disposed in our containers,’ Loza said. ‘Having these vacationers, tourists coming to these short-term rentals has really disrupted our weekdays. We can’t sleep because at all hours, they’re either partying or making noise’

    There’s no question it sux to be you Luz, but I’d bet City Terrace neighborhood of East LA is not where vacationers and tourists visit.

  29. ‘The buyer of a house being sold recently by Josephine Ashby, of John Bray Estates in north Cornwall, was ‘incredibly demanding’, and asked for ‘a huge amount of extras to be included in the sale, from furniture right down to the family’s Hunter wellies.’ She added: ‘The sellers were exasperated, but it made sense to take a deep breath and see the sale through’

    It made sense. Et tu, Josephine?

    1. When the rule of law collapses and all you have are unsympathetic Soros DA’s, this is what you get.

      So what happens if you buy a house, close, and then the seller refuses to vacate the property?

      1. you buy a house, close, and then the seller refuses

        Did you do a walkthrough the day of the closing?

        1. From what I have seen it’s not unusual for the seller to get a few days after closing to move out. I suppose that an inspection would reveal a house that has already been packed.

  31. “…At a level not seen since 2008.”

    That phrase brought a smile to my face. Perhaps we will see a true housing bubble implosion, sooner rather than later.

  32. I have never seen such a high level of anger online from renters (USA) as I have for the past couple of months.

    1. I think there is all sorts if anger going around, which is why we are being told that everything that we perceive as being bad is all in our heads.

      1. Well, true, plenty to be angry about. I am po’d since I paid my rent on time and in full, but got hammered with substantial increases bc landlords had losses. My landlord’s self-righteousness is delusional and obnoxious.

  33. Does anyone recall what happened when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market circa 1980?
    So do I.

    Lesson learned: If you want to dominate the market for some particular asset, use other people’s money for purchases.

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