Many Are Being Forced To Sell At A Reduced Price And Losing Equity They Had Built Up
A report from WNCT. “The Greenville ENC Alliance, a local economic development agency, recently released its first research report. This one is focused on housing trends in Greenville, Pitt County, and Eastern North Carolina. It breaks that information down to be easy to understand. According to the report, the homes in Greenville dropped 17.24% in sale price between November 2022 and November 2023.”
The Bellingham Herald in Washington. “Home sale prices in Whatcom County increased in January, although Bellingham prices decreased. Whatcom County’s median home sale price has fluctuated throughout 2023. The median home sale price reached an extreme high of $702,500 on Nov. 20, the highest price recorded in 2023, according to Redfin. In January, Whatcom’s median home sale price fluctuated, starting at $652,500 on Jan. 15, then dropping to $599,900 on Jan. 22.”
WSAU in Wisconsin. “Years ago, I spent a night in one of the luxury penthouse suites at the Jefferson Street Inn. If you wanted too, you could rent it by the month or buy it was a condominium. And, yet, as nice as it was, I wouldn’t want to live there. Consider what a pain in the neck grocery shopping would be. Your car is parked in the ramp across the street. Unloading involves an elevator, then the skywalk, then an elevator to your home. That would get tiresome really fast. I suspect I’m happier in my much-more-modest stand-alone house where I park in my own garage. And my housing costs are much more reasonable.”
“Wausau is making a bet that there are lots of people who want to live in luxury rental properties near downtown. I don’t see it. Yet that’s the lynchpin for the Foundry on Third project, which we are promised will break ground in May, or the Riverlife project, which the developer pulled the plug on last week. If you’re uncertain you call fill all the units, these projects don’t make sense. And the landlords are nervous about finding all the renters they’ll need to make the projects pay.”
Business Observer Florida. “How hot is Naples? There are now 187 homes or properties listed for over $10 million in Naples, according to MLS data. Out of those 187, 48 are over $20 million and 17 over $30 million. By comparison, the Tampa market has a total of 10 homes currently listed for at least $10 million. Budge Huskey, CEO of Naples-based Premier Sotheby’s International Realty, points out in the beginning of 2024 there were almost 50% more properties for sale than a year earlier in Naples. That suggests, he says in an email, ‘the release of a pent-up supply delayed due to (Hurricane) Ian and other considerations. Most certainly, the luxury sector is among the most pronounced.'”
“The uber-high Naples real estate market made global news this week with one out-of-this-world listing: a waterfront residential compound for $295 million. That announcement, of a property dubbed Gordon Pointe, made real estate junkies go gaga. ‘It is a headline grabbing asking price that is meant to generate attention but not rooted in reality,’ Jenny Lenz, managing director of Dolly Lenz Real Estate, which has offices in Naples and New York City. ‘Considering that it is more of a land play, the real number when factoring in construction costs, etc. is exponentially higher than the list price which really limits the buyer pool to a handful of people around the world.’ Lenz adds the listing is reminiscent of a New York City penthouse listed for $250 million that had to drop the asking price.”
The Los Angeles Times. “Southern California’s real estate market is as cold as the snow currently adorning the peaks of its mountains. Interest rates are up. Inventory is down. And deals are few and far between. In slow markets, the agents at the top — those with experience, connections and plenty of clients — typically maintain a modest but steady stream of business. It’s the agents at the bottom — those just getting into the industry who’ve only managed to close a handful of sales — who starve. As those agents have grown more desperate for leads, they’re trying alternative ways of finding them. Some are outsourcing the work overseas, and others are turning to AI or automation in a last-ditch attempt to find a seller.”
“More than 43,000 single-family homes traded hands in L.A. County in 2021, and more than 42,000 were sold in 2022, according to the Multiple Listing Service. But then the market started to freeze in 2023 as mortgage rates shot up. Only 11,539 single-family homes sold that year, and sales are at a similar pace so far this year. In California alone, NAR lost 9,723 members from December 2023 to January 2024 — a 4.75% decline . But even after the drop, California still holds the second-most active Realtors in the nation at 194,964, and they’re all fighting for an extremely small pool of sellers.”
“At the peak of the pandemic market, Tyler Andrews, 29, tried his hand at real estate in the Inland Empire, thinking he would use his outgoing personality to sell homes as L.A. residents flocked to the area during the pandemic. He got his license and helped a few friends with their house hunts, but ultimately didn’t earn any commission and stopped in 2023. He’s one of many agents who rushed into real estate hoping for a taste of California’s latest gold rush. In 2022, Realtors with 16 or more years of experience made a median gross income of $80,700, according to the NAR. But those with two years or less experience made just $9,600. According to a report from business networking platform Alignable, 31% of real estate firms struggled to pay rent for their office in January.”
From Newsweek. “One woman in California is searching for answers after her homeowner insurance policy left her uninsured for a $600,000 house that burned down during a wildfire. Amber Bush, a 44-year-old living in Redding, remembers the day she saw her home burn down in 2018. The home was destroyed by the Carr wildfire, which saw more than 110,000 acres devastated in the state. At the time her home was destroyed, Bush was enrolled in a Farmers Insurance policy, but the nightmare soon continued after she got in contact with the company. She said Farmers Insurance had terminated her policy because they said her contractor never completed her home. Altogether, Bush has spent more than $600,000 building her now uninsured home, so the stakes are high. ‘If anything happens to it, the mortgage company gets their money and I get nothing but a plot of land,’ she said.”
“While Bush filed a claim on her homeowners’ insurance for liability coverage to pay for an attorney to protect the home from the contractors, the process is still in review. In the meantime, Bush said she is left without an attorney and will probably lose her home without any representation. Alyson Dutch, another California homeowner, has struggled for nearly three decades to buy insurance on her Malibu home because it’s considered a ‘high risk’ area, she said. The only option for many is the California Fair Plan. The state-subsidized option, while providing some support for fire and earthquake damage, often leaves many frustrated when it comes time to rely on the coverage for repairs, though. ‘It’s crap insurance and barely covers anything,’ Dutch told Newsweek. ‘This is the reason why so many houses in Malibu that have burned in fires, or slid in rains that followed, had to leave the state and their properties remain in shambles.'”
Market Watch. “Shares of regional banks were hit especially hard on Tuesday after an inflation reading came in surprisingly strong, raising more concerns about potential fallout to commercial real estate from higher interest rates. ‘The market got ahead of itself on the soft-landing scenario,” said Rich Hill, head of real-estate strategy and research at Cohen & Steers, a real-estate-focused investment firm with about $83 billion in assets under management. ‘I think we are getting a dose of reality. I would be surprised if there wasn’t more failures,’ Hill said, adding that as borrower delinquencies rise, lenders need new appraisals that reflect today’s lower property values, which suggests more write-downs on soured property debt at banks.”
“Many lenders have responded by extending or modifying maturing loans on their books in the past year. But that also has an estimated 20% of the outstanding $4.7 trillion of commercial real-estate loans now set to come due this year, a 28% increase from last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘These extensions and modifications have pushed the amount of CRE mortgages maturing this year from $659 billion to $929 billion,’ said Jamie Woodwell, head of commercial real-estate research at MBA. Interest rates remain elevated and property values already have fallen an estimated 21% in January from peak levels, according to Green Street’s Commercial Property Price Index. Office prices were pegged as 35% below peak levels and apartment values off by 28%.”
Castanet News in Canada. “The provincial government has gone too far in its legislation banning short-term rentals within specific areas of municipalities across the province, says a local petition. A Kelowna realtor is hoping public pressure in the form of a petition will prompt the province into amending its legislation. JP Letnick says the petition is not looking to quash the entire legislation, just the part of it that bars short-term rentals in buildings zoned and designed for that purpose. ‘These buildings like Caban, Aqua, Brooklyn were specifically purpose-build, zoned, legally used as if it was a hotel for short-term rentals. And they are not being allowed within this legislation with the government,’ Letnick tells Castanet News. ‘To be completely transparent I do have a unit at Aqua Phase 1 which is supposed to be allowed short-term rentals. That is the type of buildings we are trying to help people with.'”
“Letnick says the concern is people have bought units in these buildings in good faith to use them specifically for short-term rentals. Now that they are being switched to long-term rentals only, Letnick says many are being forced to sell at a reduced price and losing equity they had built up. ‘A lot of these buyers, a majority of which are not greedy investors but are Canadian families that have decided they want to venture into this type of business, are looking at the numbers and finding they will be paying $1,000 a month extra just to cover the mortgage which doesn’t make financial sense.'”
The Mirror in the UK. “Homeowners who bought new build properties that were left unfinished due to the developer going bust remain trapped in homes riddled with problems. Developer Stewart Milne Homes, responsible for several housing projects across the north-west, collapsed in January, leaving hundreds of customers in shock. Homeowners are now questioning if the faults in their homes, including cracked walls and leaky windows, will ever be fixed. They also fear the ongoing issues will significantly decrease the value of their new homes, leaving them in a negative equity trap – as they anxiously wait to find out who will be completing all the outstanding work.”
“Nasser Murtza, a buyer from Preston, said ‘the stress is unbelievable’ after discovering £135,000 worth of issues in his property. The 57 year-old civil servant and his wife Masooma Murtza, 56, an AA employee, bought their home at the Broughton Park development for £400,950 in October 2022. Mr Murtza told MailOnline: ‘The windows have no insulation on the side and the hinges have not been fitted properly. All the windows and doors have to be replaced. The roof work is significant, it needs work as wind, rain and insects can get through it.’ He said: ‘I would never be able to sell this home to somebody knowing what I know now, it’s not in my nature, so the only option I have is to chase the NHBC to see if they can get it resolved. Of course I am annoyed because there is no one to support us anymore but there’s nothing we can do.'”
Domain News in Australia. “Two years after Phoebe Neylon paid $9 million for the Byron Bay home of The Block presenter Shelley Craft, it is back up for sale. The challenge for selling agent, former owner and Craft’s husband Christian Sergiacomi, of Pacifico Property, will be beating the stonking price that he sold it for at the peak of the boom. This time around, and in the wake of a 2.6 per cent median house price drop in Byron Bay last year, the Paul Uhlmann Architects-designed house comes with a guide of $7.5 million to $8 million.”
“It seems the South Coast holiday home market has come back from the peak, as REA Group chairman and former Rugby Australia chair Hamish McLennan well knows. McLennan and his wife listed their Berry retreat Cedarvale last year for $7.45 million, but revised the price downwards recently to $5.9 million as the Shoalhaven median house price slid some 1.8 per cent for the year. The discounting worked wonders and Ray White’s Neil Campbell has sold it for $5.6 million. Savills’ Martin Schiller and DiJones’ Bradley Cocks were asking $10 million to $11 million for the Mittagong property a year ago, and it sold this week after the guide was reduced to $8.5 million.”
“Still in Potts Point, a whole-floor apartment in the Alex Popov-designed Grantham building has resold for almost $2 million less than it last traded for 18 months ago. Narelle and Lionel Brown purchased the second-level spread in 2022 $10 million. It returned to the market last October with TRG’s Gavin Rubinstein, who elicited an $8.25 million offer only to then sell it to another buyer for about $8.3 million. Ouch.”
South China Morning Post. “Chinese developer China South City Holdings plunged 37 per cent to an all-time low after it warned last week that it would default on multiple bonds maturing this year, having earlier failed to win reprieve from creditors to postpone repayment. Today’s slump extended the stock’s loss over the past 12 months to about 76 per cent, and erased as much as HK$48.3 billion (US$6.17 billion) of market value from the stock’s all-time high of HK$4.35 in March 2014. The cumulative effect of China’s crippled property market has put an increasing strain on the company’s working capital, it said. Sales had been below expectations and cash flow was only sufficient to fund daily operations, it added.”
“China South City said its operations and financial situation have not yet sufficiently improved and that it would not be able to make the mandatory redemption on February 9 with respect to notes maturing in October 2024. It would also not be able to make the interest payments on other bonds on February 12 with respect to its April 2024 bond. China South City said the defaults could lead to failure of other payment obligations. This would ‘have a significant material adverse effect on our business, operations and financial condition, including possibly insolvency or other forms of restructuring,’ the company said in the filing.”
“Meanwhile, Hong Kong property developer Wang On Group said it had cut its holding in China South City bonds at a loss. The firm sold US$8.4 million face amount of China South City notes on the open market for US$3.8 million from February 2 to 8, according to an exchange filing on February 8. As a result, Wang On Group expects to incur a HK$32.9 million (US$4.2 million) loss for the financial year ending March 31.”
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You live in a country where illegals have more rights than U.S. citizens.
I don’t know about y’all but what I see coming is the massive oversupply of new builds being bought up in bulk by companies like Invitation Homes and generous government contracts given out to provide shelter for migrants and refugees. And Trump is never going to be able to deport these people even if he gets elected. All they have to do is claim to be victims of domestic violence and LGBT persecution in their country of origin and they can’t be deported. The vast majority of them are here to stay. And millions more are coming.
Even if Trump can’t deport, can he shut off the money spigot for all this?
wanna bet, it’ll a great job creation. 1 illegal captured = $500, myself and 10’s of 1000’s will sign up for this new job, Patriot Patrol, Billion Dollar industry created overnight.
The court dates for folks crossing the border are 5-10 years out. So any female of child bearing age has a 5-10 year window to get knocked up and cash out for citizenship. free medical care, free schooling, free housing, free food and a free monthly check. Then she can bring the rest of her family in using family reunification. The pin has been pulled on the demographic grenade and it can’t be put back in.
I’m glad there are millions of people in this country with more backbone than you. You don’t stay free if you fold before the fight has started.
This is the kind of defeatism that the globalist sc*m media wants you to believe is inevitable.
The United States can repeal birthright citizenship, and it can deport 20 million people who have no legal right to exist in this country.
We can take our country back through legislation, or through another civil war. Globalists are no match for the 300+ million guns in the hands of United States citizens.
‘The market got ahead of itself on the soft-landing scenario…I think we are getting a dose of reality. I would be surprised if there wasn’t more failures’
Wa happened to my pivot Rich?
‘Many lenders have responded by extending or modifying maturing loans on their books in the past year. But that also has an estimated 20% of the outstanding $4.7 trillion of commercial real-estate loans now set to come due this year, a 28% increase from last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘These extensions and modifications have pushed the amount of CRE mortgages maturing this year from $659 billion to $929 billion,’ said Jamie Woodwell, head of commercial real-estate research at MBA. Interest rates remain elevated and property values already have fallen an estimated 21% in January from peak levels, according to Green Street’s Commercial Property Price Index. Office prices were pegged as 35% below peak levels and apartment values off by 28%’
That’s the spirit Jamie, hold on to that falling knife!
‘It’s crap insurance and barely covers anything,’ Dutch told Newsweek. ‘This is the reason why so many houses in Malibu that have burned in fires, or slid in rains that followed, had to leave the state and their properties remain in shambles’
So just like that Alyson, they gave it away?
Malibu is covered with dry coastal sage and chaparral, which are prone to rapidly moving wildfires and mudslides. Of course the property insurance is expensive, but hey…the ocean view!
Well just burn it. The pioneers knew that.
Malibu is surprising windy during the Santa Ana winds.
‘there were almost 50% more properties for sale than a year earlier in Naples. That suggests, he says in an email, ‘the release of a pent-up supply delayed due to (Hurricane) Ian and other considerations. Most certainly, the luxury sector is among the most pronounced’
Pent up supply. I’ve never heard that one Budge. Jenny says they are building like crazy and it’ll get worser.
“Pent up supply.”
HODLers gonna HODL.
The Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed are running up massive losses.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/02/federal_reserve_records_massive_losses_makes_up_fictitious_assets_called_deferred_assets_to_compensate.html
The Fed is already bankrupt. At current interest rates the value of its 2+ trillion dollar MBS portfolio has been cut by 30-50%. Eventually they are going to dump their bad assets on the US Treasury and be bailed out. I know this is kind of an old school forum based on the concept of market principles and dynamics. But as far as I can see that just doesn’t exist in this country anymore. And centrally planned dystopic economies can shamble along for a very long time before the final collapse.
What we are seeing is the process that leads to hyperinflation. It’s going to be one hell of a ride.
The Fed is already bankrupt
I think not. It’s not like they have to pay back a loan on the money they spent on the MBS.
They are doing a fine job of making us bankrupt.
I don’t see them having to dump any part of their portfolio. These are the guys who can legally conjure money out of thin air.
What they’ve done is F up the housing market for an entire generation with insane price distortions. Crazy on the way up, crazy on the way back down. I feel bad for anyone who wanted to buy a house any time between 2012 and 2032.
“What they’ve done is F up the housing market…”
F*ed up small business too since housing is eating away at disposable income.
And centrally planned dystopic economies can shamble along for a very long time before the final collapse.
As Adam Smith once said, there is a lot of ruin in a nation. Unfortunately, our nation is tearing through its supply and will run out before most people think.
According to the report, the homes in Greenville dropped 17.24% in sale price between November 2022 and November 2023.”
But…but…muh generational wealth!
R u planning to buy the stock market dip to catch yourself a piece of that dead cat bounce?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-us-futures-point-to-bounce-back-from-inflation-hit-130130969.html?_fsig=wVOwEejn7KaPqLyHi8rH9A–%7EA
Financial Times
Unhedged Markets
Everyone calm down about CPI
Plus, a very large taxi company becomes profitable
The New York skyline with $100 bills in the background
Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu yesterday
This article is an on-site version of our Unhedged newsletter. Sign up here to get the newsletter sent straight to your inbox every weekday
Good morning. A day after we questioned whether Arm was properly an AI stock, the shares fell 20 per cent. Apologies! More generally, markets were shaken by yesterday’s consumer price index data. Unhedged, on the other hand, is taking it in stride, as you will see below. Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com.
Reserving judgment on inflation
Markets took yesterday’s hotter-than-expected CPI inflation report hard. The two-year Treasury yield rose 17 basis points. That sent the S&P 500 down 1 per cent, and the small-cap Russell 2000 down 4 per cent. Futures markets now price in fewer than four 25bp interest rate cuts in 2024, down from five a week ago.
This looks like an overreaction to us, but look at it from the bond market’s point of view. The Federal Reserve can wait for more data before making a call; traders can’t. Yesterday’s CPI numbers showed core inflation jutting higher, rising 0.4 per cent on strong increases in services prices. “Supercore” inflation (core services ex-shelter) was up a blistering 0.9 per cent. This fits with a recent uptrend in the three-month moving average of core CPI, putting it close to 4 per cent annualised (see chart below). It makes sense that traders would give more weight to the possibility of rising inflation than they were on Monday.
…
ChatGPT 3.5
User
‘“Supercore” inflation (core services ex-shelter) was up a blistering 0.9 per cent.’
If monthly inflation is running at 0.9 percent, what is annualized inflation at the same rate?
ChatGPT
To annualize the monthly inflation rate of 0.9%, you would multiply it by 12 since there are 12 months in a year:
0.9% * 12 = 10.8%
So, annualized inflation at the same rate would be 10.8%.
User
Shouldn’t I use exponentiation to reflect the magic of compound growth in prices?
ChatGPT
You’re correct. To account for the compounding effect of inflation over the course of a year, you should use exponentiation. Here’s how you can calculate it:
(1 + monthly inflation rate)^12 – 1
In this case:
(1 + 0.009)^12 – 1 ≈ 0.1131
So, annualized inflation at the same rate, when compounded monthly, would be approximately 11.31%.
User
How long would it take for the dollar to lose half its purchasing power at an inflation rate of 11.31%?
ChatGPT
To find out how long it would take for the dollar to lose half its purchasing power, we can use the rule of 72, which is a quick way to estimate the doubling or halving time for an investment or inflation rate.
The formula is:
Years = 72 / inflation rate
In this case:
Years = 72 / 11.31 ≈ 6.36
So, it would take approximately 6.36 years for the dollar to lose half its purchasing power at an inflation rate of 11.31%.
ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information.
“Supercore” inflation
Life is getting harder for those of us without food, gas, electricity or shelter.
‘A lot of these buyers, a majority of which are not greedy investors but are Canadian families that have decided they want to venture into this type of business, are looking at the numbers and finding they will be paying $1,000 a month extra just to cover the mortgage which doesn’t make financial sense.’”
Die, speculator scum.
“Southern California’s real estate market is as cold as the snow currently adorning the peaks of its mountains. Interest rates are up. Inventory is down. And deals are few and far between.”
Welcome to the ice cold, atmospheric river sales season.
“In slow markets, the agents at the top — those with experience, connections and plenty of clients — typically maintain a modest but steady stream of business. It’s the agents at the bottom — those just getting into the industry who’ve only managed to close a handful of sales — who starve.”
Just remember, coffee is for closers.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g2ofJqqsL5g
Mayorkas impeached by Congress finally when a second vote was taken . Problem is Senate probably won’t impeach him also and take the traitor out of Office.
He also refused to give security to Kennedy as a Presidential candidate.
“take the traitor out of Office”
If you give more rights to illegal criminal invaders than to United States citizens you are guilty of TREASON. Open borders is TREASON.
109 times, is that a lot?
The implosion of Housing Bubble 2.0 is playing out most visibly in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. There seems to be a common denominator, but I can’t seem to put my finger on it.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/builder-st-hilliers-collapses-with-52m-owed-19-projects-in-limbo/news-story/b2249d3efce8ab09e84a6e6139e2fb61
How about in China (#2) or Germany (#3)?
Fast Company
02-09-24
China’s housing market is in the middle of one of the worst property busts in decades, says the IMF
IMF says China’s housing bust is occurring at “a historically rapid pace only seen in the largest housing busts in cross-country experience in the last three decades.”
By Lance Lambert
2 minute Read
China’s ongoing housing bust won’t be short-lived, according to a report released by the International Monetary Fund last week.
By the time China’s housing bust, which started in 2021, bottoms out around 2026, the IMF predicts that China’s housing sector will contract by 45%. In the best-case scenario, the IMF projects that housing-related economic activity in China contracts by 30%. In the worst-case scenario, the IMF anticipates that housing-related economic activity in China contracts by 65%.
That’s a significant economic hit, considering that the IMF estimates that housing amounts to around 20% of China’s economy.
“With the [China] property downturn in its third year, progress in downsizing the sector has been rapid in some respects,” wrote IMF researchers in the report. “Housing starts have fallen by more than 60% relative to pre-pandemic levels, a historically rapid pace only seen in the largest housing busts in cross-country experience in the last three decades. Sales have fallen amid homebuyer concerns that developers lack sufficient financing to complete projects and that prices will decline in the future.”
While the U.S. housing market, particularly single-family housing, is considered underbuilt by most analysts, China’s property market is considered vastly overbuilt, with entirely empty high-rises dotting some Chinese cities.
The rampant building in China, IMF researchers wrote, was driven “in part because consumers preferred to invest their considerable savings in real estate given the scarcity of attractive alternative savings options.”
In the years leading up to the housing bust, Chinese developers made risky bets believing the market would continue to boom.
“Expectations of continued increases in home and land prices allowed property developers to borrow rapidly,” the IMF report states. That risk has caused spillover into China’s financial sector, similar to how the U.S. subprime crisis and subsequent housing bust from 2007-2012 caused a crisis in the U.S. financial sector.
However, China’s government isn’t sitting idly on the sidelines. China has intervened to stave off several developer bankruptcies, and according to the IMF, Chinese home prices have “decreased only modestly in part because some cities have sought to limit price declines through rules and guidance on listing prices.”
The IMF suggests that a shorter bust for China’s real estate sector is possible if the country allows for a more market-based correction.
“A shorter and smoother transition for the real estate sector is achievable, however. Allowing more market-based adjustment in home prices and quickly restructuring insolvent developers will help to clear the overhang of inventories and ease fears that prices will continue to gradually decline. Rules allowing banks to avoid recognition of bad loans to developers should be phased out,” wrote IMF researchers.
China’s housing bust is also coming at less than an ideal time given the country’s multi-decade period of worsening demographics.
“China’s housing market faces additional pressures in coming years from structural factors, in particular demographic change. The need for additional new housing will diminish in coming years as the population declines and urbanization slows. Large public subsidies in the previous decade helped millions of people move to newer housing from older buildings lacking modern amenities. Such [housing] demand will likely be more limited as depressed land sale revenues have tightened local government fiscal constraints and fewer residents live in older housing,” wrote IMF researchers.
…
https://www.fastcompany.com/91025493/housing-market-china-worst-property-bust-imf
CHINESE GREAT DEPRESSION. They won’t recover for a generation.
Housing News
“Dismal” year predicted as German housing construction continues to slow
14 February 2024, by Olivia Logan
A new survey by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich has found that the “business climate” in Germany’s residential construction industry has hit an all-time low.
Falling from -56,9 points to -59,0 points, the “business climate” in Germany’s housing construction industry has reached the lowest value ever measured, according to the Ifo Institute.
The Ifo analyses business climates in Germany by asking manufacturers in a particular sector to give their assessment of the current business situation and their expectations for the near future. Expectations that the housing construction industry climate would improve fell from -64,7 to -68,9 points.
“The outlook in the coming months is bleak,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Munich’s Ifo. “Residential construction is still facing the double whammy of a lack of new orders and ongoing project cancellations.”
However, according to the Ifo, 2024 has seen a slight drop in the number of residential construction companies in Germany that reported a lack of orders, from 56,9 percent in December 2023, to 52,5 percent in January. There was also a slight decline in the number of cancellations, from 22,1 percent to 17,4 percent, but Wohlrabe said that the outlook remained bleak since it was too early to tell if the differences amount to a ripple or a change in the tide.
Increased interest rates and rising costs remain a challenge
Back in July 2023, the Ifo had already predicted that the housing construction industry would see a sharp decline. Rising costs in the industry – which have partly been spurred on by the war in Ukraine – increased interest rates and an uncertain housing market were cited as reasons for the forecast. In the summer, the Ifo had already predicted that just 200.000 housing units would be built in 2025, just half of the Ampel coalition’s target.
More than half a year later, following the institution’s latest report, Wohlrabe explained that “tough conditions have hardly changed at all. High-interest rates and construction costs aren’t making things any easier for builders.”
A glimmer of hope comes with Germany’s falling inflation rate, which dropped to +2,9 percent in January 2024, the lowest value since June 2021. This new consumer price index (CPI) rate and Germany’s current core inflation rate of +3,4 percent will now be considered by the European Central Bank (ECB) to reassess if interest rates should be cut.
A decision to cut interest rates from the ECB is not expected to come imminently, but once it does, the drop should make it easier for construction companies to finance projects.
…
https://www.iamexpat.de/housing/real-estate-news/dismal-year-predicted-german-housing-construction-continues-slow
From yesterday’s thread:
“Former CIA director James Woolsey testified before the U.S. Senate in 2015 that, if America’s electric grid were to go down for an extended period, such as one year, “there are essentially two estimates on how many people would die from hunger, from starvation, from lack of water, and from social disruption.
“One estimate is that within a year or so, two-thirds of the United States population would die,” Mr. Woolsey said. “The other estimate is that within a year or so, 90 percent of the U.S. population would die.”
What is the average age of an electrical lineman or licensed journeyman electrician? 50+ at least.
And where is the next generation of competent young people who can train and qualify to do this type of work?
They’re certainly not being taught MATH in the taxpayer funded public “education” system.
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
That billionaires like Larry Ellison live on private islands with bunkers speaks volumes. Don’t know how Larry will keep outsiders off his 100+ sq mile island when the SHTF. Maybe all he has to do is keep them out of his bunker. There is no official word on his bunker, but we all know he has one on Lanai.
It also crosses my mind that a very limited nuclear exchange could wreck the power grid. So even if nukes are not dropped anywhere close to where you live the lights could go out permanently, and as you correctly point out, who will repair it? The soft hands crowd?
The immigrants are filling in the lower tradesman ranks. Most of them can do roofing or drywall or concrete work. Smarter ones who came when they were younger and know English are the foreman. IIUC, electrical work is the most intensive trade so it will take some time before that gets ramped up.
I think the trade that’s going to be most in need is agribusiness farmers. There appears to be plenty of low-level labor and young organic farmers, but I’m not sure about bulk growers of corn wheat and soy.
No. Just no. How many construction sites have you crawled around on where the crew is Spanish Speaking? The building site is a mess and the houses are not fit for purpose.
My brother was a journeyman electrician, major jobs on industrial grids. No way any of these guys can do a fraction of what he did. No way Jose. Much less run a crew.
As for Ag, get with the times. Automation is picking your apples now and AI automation is totally taking over farming to the point we barely need seasonal migrants picking anything because it is done by automation now.
“How many construction sites”
^ In her case, none.
I haven’t been on any modern construction sites, no. Just work on my own house. HVAC guys are white and Asian. Plumbers are Southeast Asian, white, and Hispanic with full American accent. Appliance repair guy was AA. Window guys were a mix.. one window crew was Polish. I grant you that the roofing guys were a Spanish speaking crew with a bi-ling foreman. Crew at Toyota Service center were all over the map, but all spoke American English or bi-ling. The kids of diverse immigrants are growing up blue collar.
I knew guys who went on ‘the harvest’ as they call it. They made serious money but it was long day after long day getting the crops in at the right time.
The barbarians showed up in Italy in the 400’s and enjoyed the aqueducts and public works for several years until they required maintenance. No one knew how to fix the aqueducts so they abandoned them and returned to using well. Over the course of several hundred years they lost the ability to dig wells too, and by the 1,000 year mark, most of Rome was reduced to gathering water in buckets and carrying it to their thatch roofed hovels along the banks of the Tiber river.
This is the future of many areas of our country. In our life time, you will be shocked when lower class areas in the country have a complete collapse of public works system and homeowners resort to camping indoors. We’ve imported a third world, and we will become the third world.
The real issue is the electronic brainwashing would stop and people might all go outside at once. *shudder*
Epoch Times article via ZeroHedge.
“Cash In Envelopes”: How The US And UN Are Funding The Border Crisis (2/14/2024):
“While the U.N. has aided migrants for decades, the scope of its operation has dramatically expanded as the number of illegal immigrants—from at least 160 countries—into the United States has surged.
That expansion has been fueled by more than $1 billion in funding from the U.S. government to the U.N. and other agencies assisting migrants, according to a government spending database.
“We’re actually funding our own border crisis,” Todd Bensman, senior national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies, a “pro-immigrant, low-immigration” think tank, told The Epoch Times.
“And it’s provided by, ultimately, the United States taxpayer.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cash-envelopes-how-us-and-un-are-funding-border-crisis
Open borders is TREASON.
The U.N. is pouring a staggering amount of money—partially stemming from U.S. taxpayers—into the illegal immigration crisis.
The U.N.-orchestrated Regional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan update for 2024 calls for distributing $1.6 billion in 17 Latin American and Caribbean countries with the help of 248 partner agencies, which are also receiving U.S. grants.
Mr. Bensman, who has been at the forefront of investigating the causes of the migrant surge, believes that the U.N. is “aiding and abetting mass migration.”
People who might not have taken the risk to travel to the U.S. border because they were worried about food or safety now have help, he said.
That help comes in the form of prepaid debit cards, food, water, shelter, medical care, and transportation, according to the U.N.
Migrants can also directly receive cash, what the U.N. emergency manual calls “cash in envelopes.”
And they know that the U.S. border is wide open. The U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security shows 6.2 million encounters at the southern border, in addition to 1.7 million known gotaways since President Biden took office.
“They say, ‘Well, you know, we’re coming now because Biden’s letting us in,’” Mr. Bensman said.
What he found was IOM and other nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) helping migrants make the dangerous trek from South and Central America.
Workers at an IOM migrant camp in Reynosa, Mexico, in 2021 told him that families of four were receiving about $800 per month on a debit card. His viral post on X, formerly known as Twitter, noted long lines of migrants waiting to receive the cards.
An IOM Mexico spokesperson quibbled over terminology and the amount of aid but confirmed that the migrants were getting monetary assistance, according to an Agence France-Presse news agency “fact check.” The spokesman said the maximum amount for a family is about $395 on an “e-wallet,” noting that the cards could not be exchanged for cash. He said workers at the migrant station giving them out were from a nonprofit organization that works with the IOM, not the IOM itself.
Documents show that IOM facilitates global migration and has strong ties to the Biden administration. IOM Director General Amy Pope served as President Biden’s senior adviser on migration. She also served as deputy Homeland Security adviser to President Barack Obama.
In January, the IOM announced its first “annual appeal,” seeking a massive $7.9 billion to tackle the “migrant crisis” and “[realize] migration’s promise as a force for good throughout the world.”
“The evidence is overwhelming that migration, when well-managed, is a major contributor to global prosperity and progress,” Ms. Pope said in her appeal for money to assist migration.
The U.N. agency stated that it needs money for humanitarian reasons to “save lives” and provide “regular pathways for migration.”
It also wants to use the money to deal with the “displacement” of people because of the “impacts of climate change.”
U.N. documents linked to Ms. Pope’s announcement show that in 2024, the U.N. wants to spend $70 million in Panama, Costa Rica, and Mexico—all countries on the most common migration route to the United States.
Documents state that in 2023 a record 500,000 migrants had traveled through the dense jungle known as the Darien Gap from Colombia into Panama.
Michael Yon, a war correspondent appearing on Epoch TV’s American Thought Leaders in 2021, told The Epoch Times’ Jan Jekielek that he had taken other journalists and congressmen to the Darien Gap to see the mass migration firsthand.
He estimated that some 10 percent of migrants traveling through the Darien Gap are murdered or die because of the harsh environment, but even that’s not enough of a deterrent to stop the flow.
Migrants from around the world are flying into South and Central America to start their journey because countries such as Suriname and Ecuador don’t require a visa to enter, Mr. Yon said.
Many then travel by foot through the Darien Gap, through Central America, and into Mexico, where they wait for the Mexican government to clear them to travel north, where they eventually cross illegally into the United States.
After successfully entering the United States, they text their friends, which encourages more migration, he said. Most don’t communicate how difficult or dangerous the journey is.
“As long as those incentives are there to come to the United States, they’re going to come,” said Mr. Yon, who has interviewed a large number of migrants. He said most come to the United States for economic reasons. “Almost all of them have no case for asylum.” Mr. Yon said.
Ian Mehlman is a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), an immigration reform nonprofit group that has been studying U.S. immigration since 1979.
Like Mr. Bensman, he believes that the U.N. is instrumental in the surge at U.S. borders. “This is a way for the U.N. to get money from the donor countries to carry out their programs,” Mr. Mehlman told The Epoch Times. Researchers at FAIR noted in a recent article that “cash-based intervention” programs at the U.N. increased by 77 percent between 2019 and 2020, although some of that was attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mr. Mehlman said migration is big business under the Biden administration.
“There’s no question that we saw a vast increase in migration to the United States, starting from the day that Joe Biden took office,” he said.
President Biden rescinded former President Donald Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” policy, under which would-be asylum seekers stayed in Mexico while awaiting adjudication on their immigration court case. The vast majority of illegal immigrants don’t qualify for asylum because they’re entering the United States for economic reasons and not fleeing political persecution.
President Biden also halted border wall construction on his first day, halted deportations for 100 days, and rescinded the travel ban on terror-prone countries.
“People respond to the signals that are being sent,” Mr. Mehlman said.
“If they believe that there is a good chance that they’re going to be able to get to the United States and be allowed to remain here, then they will go through all the things that they have to go through.”
“Failing state” economies benefit from illegal immigrants working in the United States or other wealthy Western countries and sending money back to their families. Smuggling people across multiple countries is coordinated, Mr. Mehlman said.“It’s happening because people are allowing it to happen,” he said. “It is being facilitated every step along the way.”
The U.N. appears to have taken the position that people should be able to move to any country that they desire, which is problematic, not only to countries such as the United States but also to the countries migrants are fleeing, according to Mr. Mehlman. “If the incentive is to leave rather than to reform and change things where you are, then those failed societies continue,” he said.
Mr. Bensman has a more straightforward explanation for what’s fueling the border crisis: a cash bonanza.
Migrant advocates from the left are now becoming political appointees, leading him to believe that the migrant crisis is “engineered.”
In Mr. Bensman’s 2023 book “Overrun: How Joe Biden Unleashed the Greatest Border Crisis in U.S. History,” he contended that mass migration has become a cottage industry, with many migrant-centered NGOs getting fat off taxpayer dollars. He pointed to one group called HIAS, a migration assistance group initially founded to help Jews fleeing Eastern Europe. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas once served on the group’s board. It’s one of several groups that has received millions of dollars in federal grants, according to Mr. Bensman.
“Their organizations are the ones that are just getting filthy rich, building their endowment, and paying their executives and just getting federal contracts,” Mr. Bensman said.
U.N. agencies are “financing the ongoing U.S. border crisis,” Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) said in a Jan. 26 statement.
“The United Nations is using our own tax dollars against us, and U.S. policymakers can no longer stand by while elites in the U.N. and Davos actively finance an invasion of our sovereign territory. “It’s time to say enough and cut off funding to these corrupt globalist institutions until respect for our territorial integrity and appreciation for our generosity is restored.”
https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/cash-in-envelopes-how-the-us-and-un-are-funding-the-border-crisis-5581125
“The evidence is overwhelming that migration, when well-managed, is a major contributor to global prosperity and progress,” Ms. Pope said in her appeal for money to assist migration.”
what about not manged at all ?
As I have been saying, it is quite obvious that the invasion is not spontaneous nor organic. And I’m also sure the the UN/NGO involvement goes beyond financial assistance. I am certain that that the invaders are being recruited to come to the US and are being transported to our southern border on trains, airplanes and buses, and that the caravans are just optics, designed to make us feel pity for the invaders and say “just let them in”.
Just how many invaders the globalists are planning on bringing in to flood the country with non productive people is anyone’s guess, but given enough time who knows? 20 million? 50? 100 million?
Morris Dees, the co-founder and an executive with the Southern Poverty Law Center, had a chart on the wall of his office projecting the date when the white population of the United States would drop below 50% of total population.
There’s your answer.
#Naming and #Noticing
Enough to turn the purple states red so they can control the federal government for seven generations henceforth. They will use federal/imperial power to punish and extract vengeance on red states not-compliant with Globohomo. This has all happened before, when during the 1880’s to 1920’s, a massive wave of immigration gave Democrats control of congress for 70 years until Republicans took back the house of Representatives in 1994. BIPOC and minority politicians see themselves in the future as the elders lording over a permanent Democratic majority comprised of minority and BIPOC voters. Sandy sees herself as the house majority leader for final 20 years of her political career.
Related article.
Gateway Pundit — Late-Night Flights of Illegal Immigrants Uncovered at Phoenix Sky Harbor — Airline Employees and TSA Reveal Details to TGP — “We’re Getting Swamped… Some of Them Smell Really Bad” (2/14/2024):
“One Border Patrol agent at the Lukeville, Arizona border port of entry told The Gateway Pundit that illegals from all over the world turn themselves in at the ports of entry because they know they’ll be given a free pass on Biden’s invitation despite not qualifying for asylum or planning to work in America. “It doesn’t matter,” said the agent.
After surrendering to the border patrol agents, illegals are then transported to housing facilities operated by globalist nonprofits like Catholic Community Services‘ Casa Alitas in Arizona.
From there, they are then taken to airports and flown all around the country to settle and await their court dates, which are often years away. All of this is funded by the American people.
This is Biden and the Democrats’ plan to destroy America. As TGP’s Jim Hoft reports, In 2017, under President Donald Trump, the US recorded its lowest number of illegal aliens entering the country in 47 years. Only 310,000 made it across the border in 2017.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/tgp-exclusive-illegal-immigrants-flown-late-night-phoenix/
You are being replaced.
Joe Biden is a self proclaimed zionist and was on record as such long before he ran for president. He was very clear on what his plans were. Sadly, the average leftist still thinks it’s all wonderful. Nature will sort it out eventually.
a self proclaimed zionist
It’s been a matter of treaty for a century, following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire.
‘ those just getting into the industry who’ve only managed to close a handful of sales — who starve. As those agents have grown more desperate for leads, they’re trying alternative ways of finding them. Some are outsourcing the work overseas, and others are turning to AI or automation in a last-ditch attempt to find a seller’
They go on to say AI sux.
‘the concern is people have bought units in these buildings in good faith to use them specifically for short-term rentals. Now that they are being switched to long-term rentals only, Letnick says many are being forced to sell at a reduced price and losing equity they had built up. ‘A lot of these buyers, a majority of which are not greedy investors but are Canadian families that have decided they want to venture into this type of business, are looking at the numbers and finding they will be paying $1,000 a month extra just to cover the mortgage which doesn’t make financial sense’
It’s happened over and over again since morons came up with this scam JP. And it will blow up here and there and some will say airbnb armageddon! But it’s occurred regularly now for 20 years.
‘The 57 year-old civil servant and his wife…bought their home at the Broughton Park development for £400,950 in October 2022. Mr Murtza told MailOnline: ‘The windows have no insulation on the side and the hinges have not been fitted properly. All the windows and doors have to be replaced. The roof work is significant, it needs work as wind, rain and insects can get through it.’ He said: ‘I would never be able to sell this home to somebody knowing what I know now, it’s not in my nature, so the only option I have is to chase the NHBC to see if they can get it resolved. Of course I am annoyed because there is no one to support us anymore but there’s nothing we can do’
Yer not going to be able to sell that shanty at all Nasser cuz you just told the Mirror it’s a dump.
Nasser Murtza … he must be one of those Nuevos Britanicos I saw all over London.
‘Two years after Phoebe Neylon paid $9 million for the Byron Bay home of The Block presenter Shelley Craft, it is back up for sale. The challenge for selling agent, former owner and Craft’s husband Christian Sergiacomi, of Pacifico Property, will be beating the stonking price that he sold it for at the peak of the boom’
Here we go again for another the shanty’s are selling like hotcakes mate! to look at that a$$ pounding over theay.
‘Narelle and Lionel Brown purchased the second-level spread in 2022 $10 million. It returned to the market last October with TRG’s Gavin Rubinstein, who elicited an $8.25 million offer only to then sell it to another buyer for about $8.3 million. Ouch’
Don’t let the haters get you down Narelle and Lionel, you’ll always be winnahs! here at the HBB.
GTA Condo Real Estate Update – Trouble On The Horizon For Condos
Team Sessa Real Estate
7 minutes ago
In this episode we take a look at the current GTA Condo Markets – Toronto, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham, Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering. We also look at the problems that come with trying to sell your condo unit with a tenant. It’s always recommended to sell the unit while it’s vacant as the flexibility it provides will benefit the sale much more than if the unit is occupied.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rLJ1dIEVjs
18:26.
Trump Protester Can’t Name One Crime Trump Has Committed! (Live from Two Roads Theater)
The Jimmy Dore Show
3 hours ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQ0e73wS2zU
2 minutes.
Hilarious.
🙂
🙂
Dan Bongino ties EVERYTHING together: Obamagate, Ukraine, Mar-a-Lago raid, Biden’s classified documents.
This Will Blow Up the Deep-State’s War on Trump (Ep. 2187) – 02/14/2024 (58m46s)
There is something very comforting about a good conspiracy theory!
a) a real conspiracy
b) 🙄
c) 🖕
d) all of the above
There is no (e).
“There is something very comforting about a good conspiracy theory!”
Conspiracy theory?
10:00 mark among many others.
Dan’s written three books with extensive footnotes (mostly using left-wing media sources) on the subject matter.
There is something very comforting about a good conspiracy theory!
Dismissive:
showing that you do not think something is worth considering.
But he routinely chats with Shat Intelligence.
He is shat intelligence.
I know that. My point was that he routinely chats with AI he admits is sh!tty.
Renting too long can drive you crazy!
Can confirm.
Flashback to October 2018 with handy infographic, Spygate: The True Story of Collusion.
Chinese Housing Market in Crisis: Nationwide Trend of “Giving Away Homes for Free”
China Observer
6 hours ago
“Anyone interested in a free house?” and “I’m giving away my house, having been paying for 5 years.” have become popular memes online. Many homeowners in the comments under the topic of “giving away houses for free” are putting out their own houses, looking for someone to take over the loan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znv-zInmmF8
21 minutes.
take over the loan.
That doesn’t sound free at all.
Well, they are communists, so perhaps their understanding of the concept is fuzzy.
ChatGPT 3.5
User
I am perpetually amazed by how many friends and neighbors among my personal contacts in SoCal have a side gig as real estate investors and landlords. Anyone of any means whatever owns one or more real estate gold mines on the side, which everyone agrees is the sure road to riches.
With everyone from Mom and Pop next door up to Uncle Warren in Omaha piling into SoCal real estate, is it possible the trade may become overly crowded at some point?
ChatGPT
It’s definitely a possibility. When a market becomes saturated with investors, it can lead to increased competition, higher prices, and potentially lower returns. It’s important for individuals to carefully consider their investment decisions and be mindful of market conditions, including the level of competition and potential risks associated with overcrowding in the real estate market.
ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information.
ChatGPT