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It Was Almost Like You Could Barely Price It High Enough, At Some Point The Merry-Go-Round Stopped

A report from ABC 7 in California. “A former HGTV star and house flipper from Los Gatos has been sentenced to four years in Santa Clara County Jail. On Tuesday, Charles ‘Todd’ Hill, star of the show ‘Flip It to Win It,’ was ordered to pay close to $10 million for real estate and financial fraud. Prosecutor Oanh Tran said Hill’s scams including a Ponzi scheme impacted 18 homes in the Silicon Valley. ‘I think this is a major real estate fraud case – there are 11 victims here who are still dealing with the fallout,’ Tran said. Tran said Hill falsified balance sheets and fraudulently obtained loans. Victims were left with either unfinished homes or barely finished homes to finish themselves. ‘Businesses were shut down, one victim lost his home, so the consequences of his fraud are far reaching that cover various aspects of life that these victims are still dealing with,’ Tran said.”

“Ten years ago, Beau Eckstein was on the show ‘Flip it To Win It’ with Hill, and had a positive experience with him. Overall, Eckstein said the house flipping show was more for viewers and not the most realistic glimpse into the business. ‘I think the TV channels always show, like everybody’s making 150K profit – have you ever stopped and said well, there’s no interest there’s no real estate commissions involved – like what you’re forecasting is not actually reality,’ Eckstein said.”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “Huge swathes of Northern California real estate are on sale for a fraction of the prices they sold for just five years ago, with discounts as steep as 80% off the original list price. But the properties could come with some serious baggage. Marcus Schaible, a real estate agent with Emerald Realty in Garberville, told SFGATE that many of these properties were formerly used to grow cannabis and can have tax liens and fines, often referred to as ‘abatements,’ from unpermitted pot cultivation, which a purchaser will then be responsible for paying. The price cuts in southern Humboldt County are massive. For example, one 40-acre parcel with rolling hills and a pond is listed at $249,000, which is nearly 80% less than the $1.5 million it sold for in 2019. Another 40-acre lot that sold for $505,000 in 2007 is now listed at just $399,000.”

“Many of the region’s small farms are either out of business or near failure, so the formerly high property valuations of just a few years ago are no longer justified, according to Mark Crosson, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker Sellers Realty in Arcadia. ‘People were able to get their foot in the door and get these properties and were willing to pay a high price for those, and when the cannabis industry took a dive, it just didn’t pencil out,’ Crosson said. Laura Lasseter, the director of operations for the Southern Humboldt Business & Visitors Bureau, told SFGATE that the local industry’s ‘crash’ has hurt the entire area’s economy and driven down land prices. ‘It’s been in crisis mode for a long time, and we’re just really seeing the effects in the housing market,’ Lasseter said.”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “In some of Boston’s wealthiest suburbs, where McMansions are seemingly built more often than apartments, something bizarre happened between 2022 and 2023: Home prices actually dropped. Over that year, the median sales price of single-family homes fell in Belmont (down 7.28 percent), Brookline (6.29 percent), and Hingham (5.14 percent), among other places — all toney communities where high home values often feel the most insulated from turns in the market. In some communities, such as Lincoln, prices dropped by double figures, according to the Warren Group.”

“‘It’s a math issue that is fundamentally a function of interest rates,’ says Sage Jankowitz, a realtor with RE/MAX Destiny in Cambridge. ‘In markets where you have super high price points already, the higher [interest] rates are a killer. The numbers just don’t work.’ In Cambridge, where Jankowitz works, he says he’s seen homes sell in recent months for almost a million dollars less than what they were listed for. One of the most pronounced shifts was in Lincoln, where The Warren Group found prices fell more than 15 percent in 2023. The median-priced single-family home there sold for $1,411,250 last year, down more than $200,000 from 2022.”

The Wall Street Journal. “In April 2023, tech entrepreneur Jon Hunter and his wife, Laurie Hunter, listed their European-style Phoenix home for $10.995 million. A year later, following only a few lowball offers, they are gearing up to cut the price to about $8.7 million. Hunter, 54, said he blamed the Covid-era real estate hype for their ambitious expectations last year. ‘You’re hearing all these crazy stories about what people are selling for. It definitely was hyped up,’ Jon said. ‘In hindsight, we were just priced too high.'”

“Stories such as the Hunters’ are playing across the country, as sellers in luxury housing markets that boomed during the pandemic are having to reckon with prices coming back to earth. The metro area with the largest share of price reductions was Austin, Texas, where the share of $5 million-plus homes with price reductions was 18.7%. Other markets with a significant share of price cuts at $5 million and above include Phoenix, where the share was 13.6%, and Tampa, Fla., where the share was 12.8%. ‘A lot of sellers are upset,’ said Monica Fabbio, a luxury agent with The FAB Property Group in Austin. ‘They don’t want to let go of the number that they could have had during Covid.'”

“In Austin, retired technology executive Ron Wolfe and his wife recently cut the price of their waterfront Lake Travis estate to $6.999 million. That brings the asking price to nearly 15% less than the $8.2 million asking price in October 2021, Zillow shows. Their agent, Fabbio, said that, a couple of years ago, the Wolfes likely could have gotten more than the current asking price. It has been difficult to keep a handle on how quickly prices spiraled upward over the past few years, Fabbio said. ‘We were chasing the market up for so long from a pricing perspective. It was almost like you could barely price it high enough,’ she said. ‘At some point, the merry-go-round stopped.'”

The New York Post. “A former talk show host is once again trying to find a buyer for her Midtown East penthouse. Rosie O’Donnell, 62, first attempted to sell her 255 E. 49th St. triplex apartment for $8.3 million last spring amid a move to Malibu, only to take it off the market in December. Now, the abode is back up for sale — and this time with a reduced $7.5 million price tag, Robb Report first reported. O’Donnell paid an even $8 million for the unit in 2017, meaning that even if the unit sells for its new asking price, she’ll be losing $500,000 on the investment. The property is far from the only piece of real estate she has struggled to turn a profit on recently. After years of being unable to sell her mansion in Saddle River, New Jersey, O’Donnell finally sold it at a loss to buyers who planned to demolish it and turn it into affordable housing, The Post previously reported.”

From Fortune. “There’s been a slowdown in both single-family and multifamily housing construction, according to U.S. Census Bureau data issued Tuesday. Indeed, single-family starts fell in March because ‘builders are beginning to anticipate that mortgage rates will likely remain elevated for much longer than previously thought,’ according to Zillow. To combat high mortgage rates and home prices, builders have sweetened incentives to entice prospective buyers to actually make a move. ‘Incentive’ is just a big fancy word for discount, and what we’re seeing on that front is that it’s what’s creating a competitive advantage for the new-home market,’ Devyn Bachman, senior vice president of research with John Burns Research and Consulting, previously told Fortune. What’s more, 22% of builders cut their prices this month, according to Zillow, further sweetening the pot for buyers. The average price cut is 6%. But for some buyers, that’s still not enough.”

From Axios DC. “It’s ugly out there for office building owners. Their investments were sky-high during Washington’s renaissance — and now their net worths have tumbled as white-collar workers would rather WFH than clock-in downtown. Why it matters: As D.C.’s office market gets pummeled, the plight of bruised real estate titans is also a drag on the rest of the city. Consider 1899 L Street NW. It sold for $44 million in 2004. Its value on paper has since climbed to $66 million. But the reality of telework meant the 12-story office building recently sold for $22.6 million, the Washington Business Journal reports. A building across from Franklin Park that cost $100 million in 2018 sold for a $64 million markdown last December, the Washington Post recently noted. Another building on 14th Street lost $44 million in value, selling for $18.2 million in January.”

“Some buildings might just need to come down, an ironic reversal from the days when empty downtown land was gobbled up and turned into blocky office buildings. Bernstein Management CEO Joshua Bernstein predicts some midblock office towers may be demolished for the sake of making neighboring structures more attractive, providing more air and light. ‘It’s an astonishing devastation of value,’ he says.”

Durham Region in Canada.”Over the past week I sold a property in a way I had not done in years. It was sold conditionally upon a home being sold. Lately, I have seen very few properties sold with a home sale condition. If we go back to the early 2000s, it was common for a buyer to purchase a home subject to their home selling, however as the market became active over the past decade, these types of conditions were not saleable. A few weeks ago, I had an agent who has been in her career for over 15 years asking questions about an agreement with a home sale condition due to the fact she had not had to work with an offer with this condition. Ever.”

“In today’s market, it appears that homes that sell with home sale conditions are ones that are unique, in a high price point or for some reason have been sitting on the market for a long time. If a property is listed for sale and is a very desirable. The fact that home sale conditions are being discussed indicates the market has not recovered to one that is as robust as we have seen over the past few years. In 2021 almost all of the homes sold were sold unconditionally.e home in a great area and priced well, a home sale condition would rarely be one a seller would consider.”

The Evening Standard. “House prices across England and Wales decreased by 1.1 per cent, according to the latest House Price Index from the Office for National Statistics, with the capital registering the steepest drop. At borough level, house prices fluctuated between rises of over one per cent and drops of more than 20 per cent. Westminster saw the sharpest drop of 20.8 per cent, knocking almost £240,000 off the average house price. Kensington and Chelsea, while still the most expensive place in the entire UK to purchase property with an average house price of £1.2 million, saw prices drop 14.1 per cent.”

“House prices were down seven per cent year-on-year in Lambeth, taking £37,500 off house prices. Homes in Merton saw a £38,000 drop (-6.6 per cent) in value, while Lewisham had a £28,000 fall (-6.3 per cent) and Croydon £24,000 (-5.8 per cent).”

From Reuters. “Spain’s Santander will exit the mortgage business in Germany and cut around 500 jobs there by the end of 2026 as part of a process to concentrate on more profitable activities, a spokesperson for the lender told Reuters on Wednesday. Germany has been going through its worst real estate crisis in decades. After years of boom, mortgage lending slowed sharply in Germany after a rapid rise in interest rates to stamp out inflation caused potential homeowners to stay on the sidelines. In Germany, its biggest competitor Deutsche Bank has also been streamlining its mortgage business, a move that is reducing hundreds of jobs. Santander Consumer in Germany reported a decline of 41% in last years’ net profit to 264 million euros.”

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This Post Has 73 Comments

  1. ‘Tran said Hill falsified balance sheets and fraudulently obtained loans’

    Senator running deer heap angry.

  2. ‘We were chasing the market up for so long from a pricing perspective. It was almost like you could barely price it high enough,’ she said. ‘At some point, the merry-go-round stopped’

    There’s nothing under yer shack prices but air Jerry.

    1. Have you looked at the long term price charts for Dow Jones or Nasdaq lately? Talk about air! I was reviewing them last night and it appears to me we have finally reached the inflection point. The only thing that can stop a massive crash from here is hyperinflation. We will know soon. If Israel bombs Iran that will probably be the pin that pops it all. I encourage everyone to go to a good charting site and choose ‘all data’ for the index so you can see the long term data set. It’s going to be epic and absolutely dwarfs the dot com episode.

        1. It is interesting to see DJIA trade volumes more than double themselves right when the covid monetary/debt blast occurred. Easy to see why prices have doubled on so many things. Thing is they have to do it again soon if they want to hold it together. The path of least resistance is increasingly downward.

      2. Macroeconomist David Hunter has been predicting a massive melt-up, followed by a Depression for a couple years now. He made some concrete predictions, which he later revised.

        Peak DOW: 38000 42000 5500
        Peak S&P: 4700 5300 7000
        Peak NASDAQ: 18000 20000 23000
        Gold: 3000 in 2024
        Silver: 60 in 2024-2025

        Those are some bold predictions. But instead of hemming and hawing and being cagey about the time frame (like so many others do), Hunter is saying that the melt-up is NOW. I guess he’ll be proven right or wrong soon enough.

        (My guess is that the peak market will be his middle predictions, not his top ones.)

          1. Silver is fast being seen as a valuable industrial metal rather than an industrial metal. China is buying it up solely to stockpile it for later industrial use (solar panels).

            For the past decades, the price of silver has largely been controlled by big banks playing shorts games with paper silver ounces. Problem is, you can’t build a solar panel or run a Tesla or fire a Patriot missile with a Comex contract. Not to mention that we are using 1.2 billion oz of silver/year while only mining ~850 million oz/year (ballpark). One expert said that in 18-24 months we’re going to have a shortage in physical silver.

          2. One expert said that in 18-24 months we’re going to have a shortage in physical silver.

            You are at least 40 years behind on this shocking revelation.

  3. ‘For example, one 40-acre parcel with rolling hills and a pond is listed at $249,000, which is nearly 80% less than the $1.5 million it sold for in 2019. Another 40-acre lot that sold for $505,000 in 2007 is now listed at just $399,000’…the local industry’s ‘crash’ has hurt the entire area’s economy and driven down land prices. ‘It’s been in crisis mode for a long time, and we’re just really seeing the effects in the housing market’

    This article doesn’t say it but I’ve posted reports about foreclosures up there for over a year. The local newspapers don’t show up in searches very often.

  5. “22% of builders cut their prices this month”

    You gotta pump those numbers up, those are rookie numbers in this racket.

  6. ‘I think this is a major real estate fraud case – there are 11 victims here who are still dealing with the fallout,’ Tran said.

    Every time a real estate speculator gets fleeced, an angel gets its wings.

  7. “Huge swathes of Northern California real estate are on sale for a fraction of the prices they sold for just five years ago, with discounts as steep as 80% off the original list price.

    Please join me in observing a moment of silence in remembrance of those dear departed Yellen Bux valuations.

  8. Over that year, the median sales price of single-family homes fell in Belmont (down 7.28 percent), Brookline (6.29 percent), and Hingham (5.14 percent), among other places

    Inconceivable! Every REIC shill has assured me that signing on Mr. Banker’s dotted line for a shack is the most efficacious means to build “generational wealth.” Even applying my Common Core maff skills, I can’t make these numbers work out as I chart my path to effortless riches as a real estate mogul.

  11. Canadians have repeatedly been told that electric vehicles (EVs) are the future. The Trudeau government has even mandated that all new vehicles sold in Canada must be electric by 2035 (and 60 per cent by 2030, which is just around the corner). There’s only one problem: to loosely quote Jerry Maguire, “Show me the infrastructure.”

    My own vehicle is a short-range plug-in, for which I paid a premium, after clearing with my strata (condo association) that I’d be allowed to charge it. First, I was granted permission to use an extension cord, which I had purchased. Later, we were told that extension cords were no longer allowed due to safety concerns expressed by the fire department. Fair enough. I managed to trade spots with a neighbour.

    But recently, all EV owners in my building received notice that we would no longer be allowed to plug in at all. At least, not until actual Level 2 chargers are installed. When this joyous event might happen is anybody’s guess. All I know is that the idea was brought up at least three years ago, was seriously discussed and no action was taken.

    Meanwhile, there are a number of owners who will no longer be able to charge their vehicles at home. Just not enough of them to have any say, since other owners who have gas vehicles, understandably, are not as eager to shoulder the cost of adding chargers.

    The problem is that while the government is pushing for EVs to dominate the market, it avoids a simple reality: EVs are currently only feasible for those who have financial resources. The cost of charging is often on par with filling a gas tank, but takes significantly longer — that is, if you even manage to find an available charger nearby.

    So, for most people, charging at home is the practical option. But when you’ve got stratas that can cut off their residents at any moment, this becomes an option only for those who own their own homes, or have moved into condos with sufficient charging infrastructure.

    Simply legislating that all vehicles sold by 2035 must be electric doesn’t guarantee that there will be options that are as affordable as the gas vehicles that are currently on the market. While I support innovation, and appreciate EVs, there’s something deeply elitist in the government policies that surround them.

    Firstly, these should be vehicles that people should want to choose, rather than be forced to. And second, forcing EVs on people without encouraging or building sufficient infrastructure in advance is bound to lead to trouble ahead.

    In my current situation, I can’t help but feel like I was misled. I was actively encouraged to buy an EV and the government even provided incentives to do so. But there were no guardrails put into place when my strata decided to cut off my power (without making an alternative option available).

    Without proper infrastructure, 100 per cent EVs by 2035 is just a pipe-dream — or a nightmare.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/katherine-brodsky-owning-an-electric-vehicle-is-madness-and-i-regret-ever-buying-one/ar-BB1lHNg4

    1. I spent a fair amount of time in Kelowna last year for work.

      Canada is going to hell in a handbasket.

    2. LOL@ trying to meter power usage for chargers in a multi unit building. The closest panel to the garage is likely house power.

    3. sometimes possible solutions are right in front of you..If you don’t want to own a car or ev, there must be a couple of Uber EV cars to ride share in your town…..

      Then you can feeeeel good paying offf someone elses EV and battery usage.

      Encourage that.

    4. You were definitely misled. The gas stove and EV debacle is absolutely a coordinated plot from the WEF. They are attacking high-trust societies with similar strategies. Note that they would never try this crap in China or even India.

      And the WEF know full well that EVs will never work in Canada. I’m sure those stories of frozen Teslas in Chicago filtered their way to Canadian citizens.

      1. Ventured into the ghetto Walmart the other day. Wanted to buy something in the drugs section, but everything’s locked up. Talked to another customer who also gave up. It’s got to be impacting their sales, but I’m not sure if selling stuff matters anymore, at least to the big players.

  12. The goal of Budget 2024(opens in a new tab) was simple enough: Put out the raging fire in the dumpster this government has become.

    Will it work before the election? Probably not.

    A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set.

    But while this single-minded attempt to help a struggling demographic would’ve been interesting three years ago when a new Trudeau mandate was beginning, it’s now just a mix of desperation and aspiration as the whiff of electoral defeat looms large over the Liberal party.

    Cynicism is baked in as voters tune out the noise from a government where the prospect of four million new houses is just the latest version of the two billion trees they failed to plant from 2017.

    But peel away the fluff and you’re left with Trudeau’s final appeal to an angry and frustrated demographic who still might not switch back and vote Liberal, if they vote at all. If the prime minister is counting on the millennial and Gen Z generations to vote them back into power, a parliamentary wipeout beckons.

    So farewell then to a budget with considerable policy substance that’s being tossed to the next government to implement, most of it financed with mega-dollars dribbled out far into a post-Trudeau future.

    For the besieged Liberal party, it’s not likely to deliver as a mission accomplished. Budget 2024 still leaves them stuck in the dumpster fighting fires.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-gusher-of-liberal-spending-won-t-put-out-the-fire-in-this-dumpster-1.6850720

  13. Far-right leader Marine le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has surged ahead in a poll, 15 points ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance. The daily European elections tracking poll by IFOP for Le Figaro puts RN on 32.5 percent and Renaissance on a shocking low 17.5 percent, in a nightmare for the French President.

    Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group, commented: “Such a result on June 9 could be calamitous for President Emmanuel Macron.”

    RN is focusing its campaign on immigration. Mr Bardella, who is president of RN, told the party’s first campaign rally in Marseille in March that the elections on June 9 would be a referendum “against being submerged by migrants”.

    He told supporters it was up to the French people to decide who is allowed to enter France and who is not, adding: “With us, France will protect its borders.”

    France’s far-right is benefitting from rising immigration, discontent among farmers about red tape and a cost-of-living crisis.

    Ms le Pen has described Mr Macron as a president under siege and hit out at her arch rival, after he said the country’s troops being deployed to Ukraine could not be ruled out.

    Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán today urged voters to reject mainstream political parties in the European Union elections for their failure of leadership and said Ukraine must never be allowed to join the bloc or NATO.

    Mr Orbán, keynote speaker at a gathering in Brussels of international Far Right politicians and supporters, railed against EU climate policy and agriculture rules which he said have left farmers in great difficulty. He also said Europe’s “migration crisis” is bigger than ever.

    A self-proclaimed “illiberal democrat”, Mr Orbán took aim at the EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, for using the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to attack his country. He said: “The bureaucrats in Brussels tried to suffocate Hungary financially.”

    The commission has denied Hungary access to billions of euros amid concerns about democratic backsliding in the country and the possible mismanagement of EU money.

    He said Hungary’s biggest concern is it does not want to share a common border with Russia again and that Ukraine should not be allowed to join the EU and NATO. He said: “Guys, you have to understand that you are a buffer zone country. You can’t change your house number.”

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1889522/emmanuel-macron-european-elections-poll-marine-le-pen

      3. None of these people call themselves “far right”, it’s a derogatory term applied by the MSM. Objectivity isn’t the media’s strong suit..

  14. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/california-jam-borrowing-billions-pay-100023026.html

    Analysts said California could have used some of the $43.5 billion the state received in American Rescue Plan Act money to pay down the debt. Instead, state officials spent the relief money for other purposes, including additional stimulus checks to residents.

    “California had options and it chose the spending option instead of the responsible option,” said Matt Weidinger, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who has written widely on the unemployment insurance program. He said higher employer payroll taxes will ultimately spill over to employees in the form of less wages.

    1. Powell’s Inflation Warning Drives 10-Year Treasury Yields to Breakout Level
      By James Picerno
      Published 04/17/2024, 02:55 PM

      Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened.

      The Treasury market has been effectively making the same case for weeks, but when the top central banker says it out loud the crowd notices.

      “More recent data shows solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal,” Powell said at a conference yesterday (Apr. 16).

      “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.”

      The 10-year Treasury yield is paying attention and rose to 4.67%, the highest since Nov. 6. The question is whether the benchmark rate is still trading in a range. Or is it poised to take out its previous peak of roughly 5% that was set in October?
      …
      https://www.investing.com/analysis/powells-inflation-warning-drives-10year-treasury-yields-to-breakout-level-200647723

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      Business / Economy
      Here’s what would happen to the US economy if there are no rate cuts this year
      By Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN
      Published 4:57 PM EDT, Tue April 16, 2024
      Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg/Getty Images
      Higher-for-even-longer interest rates could make the cost of homeownership more unaffordable to many Americans.
      New York CNN —

      Federal Reserve officials have been saying for months they need to see more convincing data demonstrating that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2% before they can feel comfortable cutting rates. Last month’s unexpectedly hot Consumer Price Index report is the exact opposite of that. That’s why Fed Chair Powell conveyed on Tuesday the central bank won’t be cutting interest rates any time soon.

      “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve [2% inflation],” Powell said Tuesday in a panel discussion with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. US stocks initially dropped after his signal that rates would stay higher for longer, and Treasury yields rose to new highs for the year before paring back.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/16/economy/what-if-no-rate-cuts-this-year/index.html

      1. Don’t buy the dip in stocks just yet as a wave of selling is about to bring the market to a bottom, according to one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street
        Jennifer Sor
        Apr 18, 2024, 9:55 AM PDT
        buy the dip
        Jackyenjoyphotography/Getty Images

        – Investors shouldn’t rush to buy the latest dip in the stock market, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said.

        – That’s because volatility is rising, which could bring near-term pressure to stocks.

        – The market could be less than a month away from hitting a bottom, Lee predicted.

        Don’t buy the dip in stocks just yet — there’s a wave of selling that could see the market bottom out in the coming weeks, according to one of Wall Street’s biggest bulls.

        Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s head of research and one of the most bullish stock forecasters this year, issued a word of caution for investors looking for opportunities amid the market sell-off. Stocks have slumped after taking in a hot inflation report for March, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and hawkish guidance on Fed rate cuts, causing the S&P 500 to notch four straight days of losses.

        But opportunistic investors shouldn’t rush into stocks just yet, Lee said, pointing to a surge in the VIX, the market’s volatility gauge. Higher volatility typically triggers selling among investors, he warned, which could lead to near-term pressure for stocks.

        “While we normally like to buy dips, as we said earlier this week, the surge in the VIX says we gotta take buying the dip extra slowly,” Lee said in a video sent to clients on Thursday.

        A buying opportunity could come soon, as the market looks poised to bottom, Lee said. That’s largely because the positive catalysts for stocks are still in play, like strong corporate earnings growth. The S&P 500 is on track to report earnings growth of over 7% for the first quarter, per estimates from FactSet.

        The Fed also looks poised to cut interest rates sometime this year, even if rate cuts could be delayed further than investors are expecting. Markets are now pricing in one or two rate cuts by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

        Lee predicted markets could hit a trough within the next month or possibly sooner, assuming that Middle East conflict does not escalate further, volatility eases, and investors show signs that they’re slowing their pace of selling.

        “This pullback, I think, is very good because it’s providing good entry points,” Lee said. “All the things that are supporting stocks are still in place.”
        …
        https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-bottom-buy-the-dip-sell-fundstrat-2024-4

        1. “All the things that are supporting stocks are still in place.”

          Ignore those annoying higher-for-longer announcements from the Fed.

  16. Report: January 6 Committee Democrats Say They Fear Trump Will Put Them in Jail

    KRISTINA WONG
    18 Apr 2024

    House Democrats who led an investigation into former President Donald Trump’s role in the January 6 Capitol riot say they are worried about their safety and being arrested if the former president wins reelection.

    They fretted to CBS News in a recent piece about a March 18 Trump post on Truth Social that said former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) “should go to Jail along with the rest of the Unselect Committee!”

    https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/04/18/report-january-6-committee-democrats-say-they-fear-trump-will-put-them-in-jail/

    2. He very well might. He doesn’t have to worry about re-election. And TBH, he’s long in the tooth, and jail and death mean a lot less to him now. I think he’s out for revenge.

      I’m sure he’s got the family all set up with bunkers and annuities and security.

  18. Jan 6 Committee fear Trump will put them in Jail .

    Well it looks like those people deliberately obstructed all the evidence in the case, as well as asserting false facts about the case.
    The evidence shows that Jan 6th was a protest against a rigged election, and a call for the election to not be certified given dispute to the rigged election.
    This has been done before such as in the election between Bush and Gore. We all remember them recounting chads in Florida .
    The evidence shows Jan 6 was not a “Insurrection to overthrow the Government”, but rather protest over a fraudulent election.
    Is it a insurrection to protest a rigged election ,in which the people were denied their choice of President, for a treasonous Puppet called Joe Biden. Joe Biden has done everything to advance the One World Order scheme to take over the Globe. That is a insurrection, is you want a definition of a ” Insurrection “, but this plot is to take over globe, not just the USA.

    1. A quick scan at the neighboring houses gives you a good idea of what they started with. This is definitely a case of trying to polish a turd. They get some credit for trying but things start jumping out at you right away. First off, the section of old fence is the first red flag. Couldn’t even paint it, WTF? The crooked middle vent dormer isn’t helping the ‘curb appeal’ either. Then you go inside and I swear the house is sagging and things aren’t fitting together properly. Finally, the gray flooring seems hip now but will probably seem very outdated and weird in a few years. I predict buyer’s remorse.

      1. Grey flooring went out with the pandemic. They probably used extra floor samples for cheap or something. And never renovate to be the palace on the block — you never get your money back.

        Built 1940. IMO, unless it’s in good condition or has true architectural character, it’s not worth saving. This house had neither. For the reno cost, you could tear down it down and put a nice new pre-fab on the property. But nothing will help the neighborhood.

  20. The false narrative, the false solution, or the false construct is how the fraudsters of New World Order have deployed to take over world.

    For instance today in a media article , in summary , the UK is predicting Civil War in the US. They also have a Movie that’s coming out called “Civil War”.
    Now , if you want to promote a false solution to the real enemy that is operative in a insurrection to take over the World, than distract to proxy wars, or Civil wars or anything that points away from to the real enemy.

    Another example of fraudulent narrative is provoke a global Panademic, than have a fake killer vaccine and a expiermental technology deemed the only solution, along with useless masks and lockdowns
    .
    Fraudulently reconstruct the Jan 6th protests to a rigged election to make it into a plot to overthrow the Government and a insurrection.

    Fraudulently create Climate Change doomsday, with the entirely fabricated solution of zero policy Co2 emissions as being the solution to the problem, when that would produce a disaster of epic scale to humans and the earth.

    Attack at least 50% of the US population claiming they are either terrorists, enemy of State, White racists, dictators, that are a threat to democracy, or anything they want to say they threaten.

    Promote transgender rights and grooming of minors, and open discrimination of white race to destroy parents rights to protect their children from this abusive brainwashing.

    The bottom line is that the real enemy is going to manufacture the problem , than create the solution, in which the solution becomes the means of them creating a One World dictorship, they have been planning for over a Century.
    A world were Monopoly Corporations in collusion with corrupted and captured global Governments, and other co conspirators subject humanity to deprived enslavement under a One World Order.

    Civil War in US is a false solution to the operative Insurrection by the One World Order Entities that want to rule the world , genocide global populations, for a end game of the Enemy controlling all earthy resources , and all humans.

    1. “Civil War in US is a false solution to the operative Insurrection by the One World Order Entities that want to rule the world…”

      It would prudent to stop worrying so much about that scenario, and instead, in the words of the late Rodney King, figure out how to ‘all get along’. We humans are smart enough to at least have a vision of peaceful coexistence, though our track record for bringing it about is mixed.

  21. ‘the house flipping show was more for viewers and not the most realistic glimpse into the business. ‘I think the TV channels always show, like everybody’s making 150K profit – have you ever stopped and said well, there’s no interest there’s no real estate commissions involved – like what you’re forecasting is not actually reality’

    It’s always been fake Beau. I wonder if this would be a billion peso industry if there wasn’t a mania?

  22. ‘People were able to get their foot in the door and get these properties and were willing to pay a high price for those, and when the cannabis industry took a dive, it just didn’t pencil out’

    I’m going to have a post on other California real estate gold mines that took a dive this weekend Mark.

  23. [This article is long so I will only offer up a snip or two.]

    Inside The Disinformation Industry

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/inside-disinformation-industry

    [snip]

    Together, they have spearheaded a carefully intellectualised definitional creep as to what counts as “disinformation”. Back when it was first set up in 2018, they defined the term on their website as “deliberately false content, designed to deceive”. Within these strict parameters, you can see how it might have appeared useful to have dedicated fact-checkers identifying the most egregious offenders and calling them out. But they have since broadened the definition to encompass anything that deploys an “adversarial narrative” — stories that may be factually true, but pit people against each other by attacking an individual, an institution or “the science”.

    GDI founder Clare Melford explained in an interview at the LSE in 2021 how this expanded definition was more “useful”, as it allowed them to go beyond fact-checking to targeting anything on the internet that they deem “harmful” or “divisive”:

    “A lot of disinformation is not just whether something is true or false — it escapes from the limits of fact-checking. Something can be factually accurate but still extremely harmful… [GDI] leads you to a more useful definition of disinformation… It’s not saying something is or is not disinformation, but it is saying that content on this site or this particular article is content that is anti-immigrant, content that is anti-women, content that is antisemitic…”

  24. ‘he blamed the Covid-era real estate hype for their ambitious expectations last year. ‘You’re hearing all these crazy stories about what people are selling for. It definitely was hyped up,’ Jon said. ‘In hindsight, we were just priced too high’

    It’s different this time Jon because the lending is sound.

  25. ‘A lot of sellers are upset…They don’t want to let go of the number that they could have had during Covid’

    This is the transition from denial to anger phase Monica.

  26. ‘Incentive’ is just a big fancy word for discount, and what we’re seeing on that front is that it’s what’s creating a competitive advantage for the new-home market,’ Devyn Bachman, senior vice president of research with John Burns Research and Consulting, previously told Fortune. What’s more, 22% of builders cut their prices this month, according to Zillow, further sweetening the pot for buyers. The average price cut is 6%. But for some buyers, that’s still not enough’

    A good time to point out new shacks are selling at a 30% market share, and have for over a year now at least. Typically they are around 15%.

  27. ‘Some buildings might just need to come down, an ironic reversal from the days when empty downtown land was gobbled up and turned into blocky office buildings. Bernstein Management CEO Joshua Bernstein predicts some midblock office towers may be demolished for the sake of making neighboring structures more attractive, providing more air and light’

    I’ve been mentioning the probability of a bunch of worthless buildings getting torn down like we’ve never seen Joshua. And I’ve said it’s better used as parks. There’s no demand for anything else so at least make the area look better.

    ‘It’s an astonishing devastation of value’

    Not quite the bullet-proof DC days of old, eh?

  28. ‘Over the past week I sold a property in a way I had not done in years. It was sold conditionally upon a home being sold. Lately, I have seen very few properties sold with a home sale condition. If we go back to the early 2000s, it was common for a buyer to purchase a home subject to their home selling, however as the market became active over the past decade, these types of conditions were not saleable. A few weeks ago, I had an agent who has been in her career for over 15 years asking questions about an agreement with a home sale condition due to the fact she had not had to work with an offer with this condition. Ever’

    It was a good long run Durham.

  29. ‘Westminster saw the sharpest drop of 20.8 per cent, knocking almost £240,000 off the average house price. Kensington and Chelsea, while still the most expensive place in the entire UK to purchase property with an average house price of £1.2 million, saw prices drop 14.1 per cent’

    These sh$tholes have been sinking like a turd in a well since 2014. It was a money laundering thing.

    1. Kensington and Chelsea

      Just a few blocks away are council buildings Nor full of unemployed muzzies on welfare. North End Rd should be renamed Mohammed Rd.

  30. Bitcoin $63,500.

    It’s the “buying opportunity of your life” at this price. The last one.

  31. Quick Way To Lose All Your Equity (York Region Real Estate Market Update)
    Team Sessa Real Estate

    50 minutes ago VAUGHAN

    In this episode we take a look at the current Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices and real estate market trends for week ending April 10, 2024. We also discuss the big issue with pulling equity out of your home and why it could elate many financial issues down the road.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c2pNzimC4I

    11:42. ATM machine quote at 2:40.

  32. ‘Spain’s Santander will exit the mortgage business in Germany and cut around 500 jobs there by the end of 2026 as part of a process to concentrate on more profitable activities, a spokesperson for the lender told Reuters on Wednesday. Germany has been going through its worst real estate crisis in decades’

    In this case, how the mighty have fallen to their knees so quickly.

  33. Is it just me having issues reaching Western Rifle Shooters Association website or has anyone experienced similar? I’m wondering if they were de-platformed…again.

    1. “Is it just me having issues reaching Western Rifle Shooters Association website or has anyone experienced similar?”

      Not only you, this is what I get…

      502 Bad Gateway

  34. Nightmare in Niger — Exclusive: Biden Administration Leaves Hundreds of U.S. Troops ‘Hostage’ in Niger

    KRISTINA WONG
    18 Apr 2024

    More than 1,000 U.S. troops are effectively being held “hostage” in Niger with medical supplies running low — stuck between the military junta-controlled government’s demands for them to leave and the Biden administration’s refusal to let them go home after the end of their deployments, according to a report prepared by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and obtained exclusively by Breitbart News.

    In addition, the report accuses Biden administration officials of trying to cover up the situation to lawmakers, as well as to troops deployed there and their families anxiously awaiting their return.

    “Our troops are currently sitting on a powder keg caused by political indecision at the top of the Department of State and Department of Defense. With a military junta in charge — who detests our presence and considers us unserious and predatory — the situation seems to be setting the groundwork for catastrophic diplomatic collapse like we saw during the 2012 Benghazi attack. Additionally, these troops are already running short on necessary, life-saving supplies, such as blood and medications,” the report by Gaetz’s office said.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/04/18/nightmare-niger-exclusive-biden-administration-leaves-hundreds-us-troops-hostage-niger/

  35. This is how you’re screwed over, despite paying the rent on time and in full.

    The Real Reason Your Rent Is So Damn High
    23,026 views Apr 18, 2024
    Landlords are being sued for using illegal price-fixing to drive up rents across the country. They allegedly conspired with RealPage, a tech company, to use non-public data to artificially inflate rents. Rents have spiked by 26% since the pandemic.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwlwrZst7d0

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