The Leading Cause Of Financial Anxiety Amongst Homeowners
A report from Fast Company. “On October 12, 2021, in a sprawling desert community just 7 miles southwest of the Las Vegas Strip, Zillow closed a sale on a four-bedroom home at 7456 Grizzly Giant St. Just five days later, Zillow paused its iBuyer program, and on November 2, 2021, it shuttered the program altogether. Not long afterward, sources told me that Zillow was selling many of the homes from its books to institutional homebuyers. Those institutional sales included the four-bedroom home on Grizzly Giant Street. Zillow bought it for $381,614 only to sell it two months later to an LLC owned by Pretium Partners for $354,053. After finding success with its pilot home-flipping business in Phoenix and Las Vegas, the real estate listing site took the program, known as Zillow Offers, nationwide in 2018. Of course, it didn’t go as planned, as Zillow lost $881 million on home flipping in 2021 alone.”
The Real Deal. “South Florida agents say this season is delayed and inconsistent, but definitely still better than other top luxury markets. Price cuts are spurring sales, as buyers are expected to jump into the market as summer approaches. In Miami Beach and other barrier island markets including Bal Harbour and Indian Creek, 10 luxury single-family home sales closed in the first quarter, up 25 percent from eight sales during the same period of last year, according to the Miller-authored Douglas Elliman reports. Still, the median price for luxury homes fell 28 percent to just over $13 million. In Palm Beach, the overall number of single-family home sales and their median price each rose in the same time period. Isolating the top 10 percent of the market, luxury home and condo sales fell 10 percent to nine closings; and the median price fell 18 percent to $14 million.”
“Nelson Gonzalez, a top agent with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty, said ‘huge demand’ still exists. ‘It’s just the very high-end buyers thinking the market is going to come down.'”
From Moneywise. “Jeff and Kim Haynes had their home in Rutland, Massachusetts, hoisted six feet into the air to make way for a new foundation after discovering deteriorating concrete in their basement. ‘It was about a year and a half ago that I noticed some cracking,’ Jeff told WCVB Channel 5 Boston. ‘I obviously wasn’t thinking it was going to be this.’ It was only after the Haynes had their basement drywall removed to inspect the issue that they found the concrete was infected with pyrrhotite — a naturally occurring mineral found in parts of New England that can compromise structural integrity if present in the aggregate material used to make concrete.”
“It’s a problem that homeowners insurance won’t cover and banks won’t provide loans for, since the value of the property sinks, according to WCVB. The Haynes say they’ll be coughing up over $250,000 for the work to fix it. ‘All of the sudden, one day, you start to notice cracks in your basement, and you come to find out that your house is worthless,’ state senator Peter Durant told WCVB. ‘That’s devastating for anybody to have to face.’ So far, state officials believe around 7,500 homes across Massachusetts could be at risk of pyrrhotite contamination.”
The Philadelphia Inquirer. “After more than two years of pursuing a consumer-protection case against ABC Capital — a Philadelphia company that ran a Ponzi-style international investment scheme fueled by distressed real estate and low-income tenants — Pennsylvania’s Office of Attorney General has reached an agreement with the company. The agreement, filed last week in Philadelphia Common Pleas Court, says the attorney general alleged that ABC and its chief executive, Jason ‘Jay’ Walsh, engaged in unfair or deceptive trade practices. But under the terms, Walsh will avoid paying fines or admitting wrongdoing, and he and his partners will be allowed to make real estate deals in the state. ABC and Walsh will be barred from running a property management company in Pennsylvania for 25 years, but are permitted to operate rental units using third-party property managers.”
“ABC was the subject of a 2022 Inquirer investigation that found Walsh and his partners collected funds from hundreds of investors from more than a half-dozen countries with promises to buy, renovate, and rent out rowhouses to generate steady returns. ABC was involved in the purchase of some 1,900 Philadelphia properties through hundreds of shell companies, before moving on to other U.S. cities. But investors said that after taking their money, ABC did not complete the renovations. Karla Cruel, a lawyer who has represented tenants dealing with ABC, said the lack of more aggressive enforcement efforts has contributed to a culture of impunity for real-estate fraudsters. “This encourages people to involve themselves in real estate schemes, [telling them], ‘In the end, nothing really happens to you, so go for it.'”
From KQED. “Dozens of California homeowners allege an Oakland-based lending company conspired with contractors to issue fraudulent loans for home improvement projects that were never completed. Nearly 160 complaints have been filed against the financial lending platform, Solar Mosaic, since 2019, according to data from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. And on Monday, a group of nearly 100 people drove from Los Angeles to protest outside Solar Mosaic’s headquarters in downtown Oakland, demanding to meet with the company and seek loan forgiveness and repayments.”
“Maria Amaya drove from her home in Hollywood to Oakland to join Monday’s protest. She paid thousands of dollars for her loan in cash and now wonders if she’ll be able to recoup the money. ‘They sent an email showing me blueprints of the plans they had finished, but when I went to the city, they had not received any plans or approved a permit or anything,’ Amaya said through a Spanish translator on Monday. ‘That was my life savings, my retirement.'”
Bisnow Los Angeles in California. “Local commercial real estate investor Jade Enterprises put its 24-story office tower at 660 S. Figueroa St. up for sale after 10 years of ownership. The office building is 37% leased now, but 12% of that is set to expire in the next three years, The Real Deal reported. Jade Enteprises bought the tower in 2014 for $80M and has spent $12M on upgrades and tenant improvements, according to public records. TRD estimates that a sale will happen at a hefty discount to replacement cost, which is estimated to be about $254M, or $900 per SF. It also seems likely that the building will trade for a good deal less than what Jade Enterprises paid. Office prices are dropping, and each sale seems to indicate that more discounts are to come. ‘2024 will be the year that more owners decide to sell their properties at a loss or realize that they need to convert or redevelop their properties to non-office use,’ according to a first-quarter 2024 report from Savills.”
Market Watch. “The roughly $20 trillion U.S. commercial real-estate market has been facing a big liquidity crunch that looks to get worse if interest rates stay high as a deluge of debt comes due. The potential for more carnage was in focus on Tuesday during a House committee hearing on the health of commercial real estate and regulatory changes that could possibly help stave off a crisis. ‘We are not seeking a bailout,’ said Jeffrey DeBoer, chief executive at the Real Estate Roundtable, a major industry lobbying group, in testimony in Washington, D.C. Instead, DeBoer talked of a ‘slow moving train wreck’ bearing down on commercial real estate, especially with a backdrop where liquidity has been pinched and with roughly half of the estimated $4.7 trillion of the debt on commercial buildings set to mature through 2027. Many of ‘these mortgages need to be extended and restructured,’ DeBoer said, adding that the banking system isn’t currently encouraged to do that.”
Blog TO in Canada. “An Ontario home sold significantly below its original selling price earlier this year demonstrates just how prices tend to fluctuate in the province’s turbulent real estate market. Located in Hamilton’s Huntington neighbourhood, this quaint three-bedroom, two-bathroom bungalow originally sold for $981,000 in January 2022. Just a few months after it was sold, the home was relisted for $1.225 million in July 2022 but was terminated a short while after. One month later, the property was listed for just shy of $1.2 million, although this price reduction failed to attract any buyers.”
“The bungalow saw a heavy price reduction in September 2023 when it was relisted for $879,000, although the discount was not enough to draw in any buyers. In November 2023, the home was relisted for a sixth time at $889,000, but once again sat on the market for months before being terminated in January 2024. Finally, the home was relisted for $689,900 in February 2024 and successfully sold just above its asking price for $720,000, although this amount was roughly $260,000 less than it was originally sold for just two years earlier.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Saskatoon financial planner Janea Dieno says she’s seen a wave of financial pessimism pass through her clients as interest rates and inflation have risen. ‘Our conversations are centred around what they can expect to pay on their mortgage payment when it comes up for renewal,’ Ms. Dieno says. ‘The discussion is scary, as some clients are expecting [an increase of] anywhere from $500 to $2,500 a month on mortgage payments just because of the increase in interest rates. I think that is the leading cause of financial anxiety amongst homeowners.'”
“The most recent instalment of the survey, issued in early April, found almost half of Canadians (45 per cent) say they are $200 or less away from ‘failing to meet all their financial obligations, including three in 10 (31 per cent) who are technically insolvent and say they already can’t cover their bills and debt payments each month. Additionally, more than half (54 per cent) say if interest rates go up much more, they will be in financial trouble,’ the company states in a release.”
“MNP president Grant Bazian says his company’s insolvency trustees are seeing increased use of payday lenders among people making more than $60,000 annually, and that the numbers of people seeking insolvency services is ‘back to pre-COVID levels in many regions in the country’ and coming from every financial cohort. ‘When I talk to the trustees across the country: People are living beyond their means to keep a lifestyle,’ says Mr. Bazian, who is based in Vancouver. ‘Keeping up with the Joneses is a lot of stress. People see friends and family growing their lifestyle, and they might not be able to afford it, but are doing it anyway.'”
Cornwall Live in the UK. “A mobile home owner living in a park owned by controversial ‘Gypsy Billionaire’ Alfie Best says he regrets ever buying one due to huge bills and ‘bubbling’ sewage. Brian Smith, 57, says his home in Little Trelower Park, just outside of St Austell, is ‘unsellable’ due to an ongoing problem with sewerage charges and infrastructure. The problem is so bad he claims his neighbours sewage ‘bubbles up’ through their bathroom when the tanks are full. The retired resident lives with his wife in the Wyldecrest Parks property they purchased in 2022 and says the tanks have to be emptied every six days because ‘something is not right’ with the system. ‘It’s beginning to make our properties unsellable because it’s giving us such a bad name,’ he said. ‘Who is going to want to buy a property on a Wyldecrest Park in a minute?'”
The Telegraph. “Taxpayers will cover £85bn of losses made by the Bank of England on its quantitative easing programme which began during the global financial crisis. The Bank of England is in the process of getting the bonds off its books but £704bn of gilts remain. Quantitative easing will lose about £20bn a year until the early 2030s, according to the latest estimates by the Bank of England, which is equivalent to a third of the defence budget. Successive Chancellors agreed to indemnify the Bank against any losses on the scheme, leaving the taxpayer on the hook for the losses. estimates. Losses are mounting from the £895bn bond-buying scheme carried out between 2009 and 2021.”
New Zealand Herald. “The pain of high interest rates and a sluggish economy are only expected to keep weighing on those with debt. Banks are bracing for the value of bad mortgage debt to rise by around 40 per cent between now and the end of the year. They’ve told their prudential regulator, the Reserve Bank (RBNZ), they expect 0.7 of their housing loans will be ‘non-performing’ by the end of the year. In March, 0.5 per cent, or $1.8 billion, of banks’ $352b of housing debt was non-performing. Non-performing loans include those that are more than 90 days past due, as well as those that are ‘impaired,’ meaning the bank has reason to believe the borrower won’t meet their repayment obligations.”
“The RBNZ expected the average interest rate paid by those with mortgages to rise from around 6 per cent in February to 6.5 per cent by the end of the year. Back in 2021, the average interest rate being paid by mortgage holders was only 2.8 per cent.”
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‘It’s a problem that homeowners insurance won’t cover and banks won’t provide loans for, since the value of the property sinks, according to WCVB. The Haynes say they’ll be coughing up over $250,000 for the work to fix it. ‘All of the sudden, one day, you start to notice cracks in your basement, and you come to find out that your house is worthless’
Jeff and Kim, I know life has you down now, but don’t ever forget – you are winnahs!
250k for a hole in the ground and some mud! I’m sure there is a retrofit solution that would resolve the issue for far less than that. Add some extra support poles in the basement and squirt some goop in the cracks, you’re not trying to save a historic building. They probably have an inheritance they are trying to waste or something.
The article has a pic of the house. Typical center-hall Colonial, except it’s ugly AF.
Summer Of Love 2024
If the septic fills up every 6 days , either the leach lines aren’t hooked up at all , or they aren’t there ….I’d be getting a backhoe out there pretty quick-like …..it may be a simple fix, or worse ..
“Not long afterward, sources told me that Zillow was selling many of the homes from its books to institutional homebuyers. Those institutional sales included the four-bedroom home on Grizzly Giant Street.”
There’s always another bag holder in line when the easy money is still flowing.
“Zillow bought it for $381,614 only to sell it two months later to an LLC owned by Pretium Partners for $354,053.”
Aren’t you supposed to buy low and sell high?
Business
Lawmakers want to ban Wall Street from buying up more single-family homes across the US
By Social Links for Shannon Thaler
Published April 29, 2024, 3:14 p.m. ET
Rewind 10 seconds
Wall Street firms in recent years have spent billions aggressively scooping up single-family homes with cash — but a growing number of US lawmakers and state officials want to put an end to the controversial practice.
Democrats in the US Senate and House of Representatives have sponsored legislation dubbed the End Hedge Fund Control of American Homes Act, which would force large owners of single-family residences to sell their swath of homes to family buyers, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Should the rule pass, corporations would have to sell off all of the single-family homes they own over a 10-year period, at which point they would be barred from owning that type of property entirely.
…
https://nypost.com/2024/04/29/business/lawmakers-want-to-ban-wall-street-from-buying-single-family-homes/
Buh buh, Blackstone…
The Business Times
Singapore
Blackstone’s Breit posts worst yearly performance in its history
Published Wed, Jan 17, 2024 · 11:06 AM
Blackstone
A BLACKSTONE real estate trust for wealthy investors notched a 0.5 per cent loss in 2023, the lowest annual return since its 2017 debut.
Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust’s (Breit) gains fell short of the threshold that would allow the asset manager to partake in profits. The firm can take a share of total returns as long as Breit delivers at least 5 per cent for the year.
This marks the first year the trust has fallen short of the mark to earn carried interest, which rewards dealmakers for generating returns and is a major incentive for the industry.
Breit brought growth, US dollars and bragging rights for the private equity firm as the trust expanded into a US$70 billion behemoth at one point. It allowed the company to bet big on favourite property sectors and marked Blackstone’s dominance among financial advisers and individual investors.
The fund’s muted results in 2023 shows that Breit has not been immune to rising interest rates and a slowing property market that has pressured returns. The trust’s return lagged behind the 26 per cent total return of the S&P 500. Breit returned 8.4 per cent in all of 2022 and more than 30 per cent in 2021. It now sits on roughly US$62 billion in net asset value.
Breit’s 1.2 per cent loss in December – a result of hedges that declined in value when key borrowing rates fell late 2023 – pulled down the year’s performance. Blackstone had enlisted interest-rate hedges to mitigate the pain from soaring borrowing costs. The firm said in a memo that even if there might be some immediate sting, sustained lower rates will lift real estate values across the fund’s portfolio.
…
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/blackstones-breit-posts-worst-yearly-performance-its-history
“The firm said in a memo that even if there might be some immediate sting, sustained lower rates will lift real estate values across the fund’s portfolio.”
There are some big fish dating the rates. How is that working out for them?
Yahoo
Yahoo Finance Video
Treasury yields: An investor’s friend in higher-for-longer market?
Josh Lipton and Julie Hyman
Tue, Apr 30, 2024, 2:15 PM PDT
With new labor costs data coming in hotter-than-expected, Treasury yields have begun to rise — the two-year yield moving above 5%. WisdomTree Head of Fixed Income Strategy Kevin Flanagan joins Yahoo Finance Market Domination Overtime to give insight into Treasury yields and how investors should revisit older strategies for current market conditions.
Flanagan offers this advice to investors: “We like to call it like the new old rate regime where rates have gone back to where we were, prior to zero interest rates, negative interest rates, quantitative easing, so I think you have to look at it from the more traditional role for fixed income. One of the ways to focus on it is an inverted yield curve. We like Treasury floating rate notes as one end of a barbell strategy and looking at something that is more of a core benchmark type of weight on the other end.”
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/treasury-yields-investors-friend-higher-211556129.html
DJIA Futures 37969.00 -0.06%
S&P 500 Futures 5058.25 -0.17%
Nasdaq Futures 17514.00 -0.33%
Real Estate
Wall Street Has Spent Billions Buying Homes. A Crackdown Is Looming.
Lawmakers say investors that scooped up hundreds of thousands of houses to rent out are driving up home prices
By Will Parker
April 29, 2024 5:40 am ET
An aerial view of single-family homes in Charlotte, N.C. Photo: Angela Owens/The Wall Street Journal
Wall Street went on a home-buying spree. Now, more lawmakers want to stop it from ever happening again.
Democrats in the U.S. Senate and House have sponsored legislation that would force large owners of single-family homes to sell houses to family buyers. A Republican’s bill in the Ohio state legislature aims to drive out institutional owners through heavy taxation.
…
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/wall-street-has-spent-billions-buying-homes-a-crackdown-is-looming-f85ae5f6
Eat it, housing market infestors…
House Prices Fall in Nearly Half of US States
Published May 01, 2024 at 4:21 AM EDT
Updated May 01, 2024 at 5:07 AM EDT
By Giulia Carbonaro
US News Reporter
The apparently unstoppable growth of home prices in the U.S. is finally slowing down as aspiring buyers struggle with affordability, according to the latest data from Moody’s Analytics, with nearly half of all states reporting drops last month.
According to the company’s latest House Price Index, national house prices rose by 0.12 percent in March—the slowest pace of monthly gains in more than a year—though, compared to a year earlier, they were still 5.9 percent higher. In February, house prices had climbed by almost 0.2 percent compared to a year earlier and were 6.1 percent higher than in February 2023.
…
https://www.newsweek.com/house-prices-fall-nearly-half-us-states-1895494
Walmart cited a “challenging reimbursement environment and escalating operating costs” as contributing to a “lack of profitability that make the care business unsustainable for us at this time.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-shuttering-health-units-including-telehealth-and-51-clinics-202051397.html
I imagine they got a lot of Spanish-speakers and poor people.
The Fed would only cut rates to help the U.S. service its soaring debt, fund manager says.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fund-manager-says-there-is-no-economic-rationale-for-fed-rate-cuts.html
KEY POINTS
Latitude Investment Management’s Freddie Lait said he believed the current level of interest rates was “perfectly fine” to balance the inflation and growth outlook for the world’s largest economy.
“From the way we have thought about it for the last 15 years, and I think for longer too, there is no economic rationale for cutting,” Lait told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“The reason they might cut is because the U.S. government can’t afford it — and that’s a much scarier reason to have to cut,” he added.
————————————————————————————-
The only reason the Federal Reserve might be tempted to cut rates would be to help the U.S. cover interest payments for the national debt, according to fund manager Freddie Lait.
His comments come ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, which could shed some light on the U.S. central bank’s rate trajectory. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Traders are currently only pricing in about a 50% chance of a Fed rate cut taking place as early as September and expect just one quarter-percentage-point reduction by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, Latitude Investment Management’s Lait said he believed the current level of interest rates was “perfectly fine” to balance the inflation and growth outlook for the world’s largest economy.
“I think it is for the birds to think that in a world where inflation is bottoming, and in some cases turning up, and there’s early signs of life, partially due to the strong economy with massive government stimulus behind it, that they are going to be cutting in any meaningful way,” Lait said.
“From the way we have thought about it for the last 15 years, and I think for longer too, there is no economic rationale for cutting. The reason they might cut is because the U.S. government can’t afford [them not doing] it — and that’s a much scarier reason to have to cut,” he added.
A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve declined to comment.
The U.S. government is paying more to service its ballooning debt after a period of rapid interest rate hikes, tax cuts, and massive stimulus programs designed to support the economy during the Covid-19 pandemic.
A recent analysis by the Congressional Budget Office showed that U.S. federal spending on interest payments is expected to climb to $870 billion this year. The forecast reflects a 32% jump from last year’s interest expense of $659 billion.
Growth in interest payments ‘quite staggering’
Lait said that “exponential” growth in government spending on U.S. debt would likely pose a problem for whoever wins the November presidential election.
“The facts are there now. You have borrowed the money. You’re running a fiscal deficit of 5, 6%. Either you withdraw all the stimulus programs and that still takes a wind down period, which is going to be a real challenge especially in somewhere like America where they are sort of legislated, or you have to borrow that money.”
Asked whether he believed the U.S. government debt load may be becoming unattractive for a number of key international investors, Lait replied, “Yes and the solution would either be to live with much higher yields or [with] much lower government spending, because that would reduce issuance and solve the problem a different way.”
He added, “It’s a little bit conspiracy theory-esque because the level of debt has never mattered. Debt to GDP has gone up every year since the war. And so, it’s gone up like a straight line and the markets have bull and bear markets.”
However, Lait said the level of U.S. national debt was not the point.
“It’s kind of the changes in it and the construction of it. And I think it is just the growth in those interest payments are really quite staggering,” he said.
BITCOIN!
A six-month chart …
https://finviz.com/crypto_charts.ashx?t=BTCUSD&p=d
A reader sent these in:
YELLEN SAYS HOME MARKET ‘ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE’ FOR FIRST-TIME BUYERS
https://twitter.com/faststocknewss/status/1785355880831307921
Why is Yellen on a doom headline parade today? She spent the last 3 years gaslighting the world on everything under the sun and she suddenly wants to be truthful the day before the blowout QRA and Fed rate announcement? Something fishy is going on.
https://twitter.com/BartsQuandry/status/1785357866163159317
Dallas Fed survey respondent: “We have not been this slow since the Great Recession. This includes Covid. We cannot understate how terrible the prospective real estate market is. People are not filing zoning cases, meaning in two years there will not be construction.”
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1785337350551142894
Yep. Kinda obvious that was coming. Duh even.
https://twitter.com/Elzon110/status/1785337647671414795
As main stream median uses multiple housing index’s to tell you homes are at record high prices, the sales price data states the median resale home is selling for
$383,000 per @FHFA
Down from the record high of $480,000 in 2022
That’s a -20% 📉 in median sale prices.
https://twitter.com/1CoastalJournal/status/1785327304677417216
Kaplan on CNBC saying we must “slow the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act to slow inflation.”
https://twitter.com/WarrenPies/status/1785319937969361094
Roger Ver, also known as Bitcoin Jesus, was arrested over the weekend in Spain for failing to pay capital gains taxes on his $BTC profits, and is expected to be extradited back to the U.S.
https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1785390033073033613
Starbucks stock, $SBUX, crashes 10% after reporting quarterly earnings results.
Starbucks missed expectations all around the board reporting revenue of $8.5 billion and a 4% DECREASE in comparable sales.
International comparable sales FELL by 6% while a 1.4% GAIN was expected.
The stock is now trading at its lowest level since October 2022 and down 30% from its 52-week high.
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1785403520956461360
The narrative is starting to shift: fewer openings, higher unemployment, higher job cuts…
Delayed, but not cancelled, impact on blue collar and service sector.
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1785284132588704157
Looks like the Kiwis are experiencing the lag in real time…
Unemployment up to 4.3% from 4%, still no cuts from the RBNZ
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1785441307571212504
Workers ‘job hopping’ on a monthly basis – a term that boomed in popularity post QE4 – is back at GFC and Dotcom levels.
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1785439003505725731
IRS auditor says PPP loans went to buy real estate, not pay to keep employees
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1785437249943064734
The Multifamily crash is here in Nashville: GVA just sold a property they bought less than 18 months ago for a ~$23M loss. They sold the property for $52M down from $75M they purchased it for in Dec 2022 a ~30% loss in value but a 100% loss in equity as price was lower than the value of the debt assumed. According to CoStar the occupancy went from 92% in Jan 2023 to 51% in April of 2024. Wild. Property Address: 1000 Enclave Cir, Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ethanflynncpa/status/1785408079657378261
Welcome to the part-time economy. The number of part-time jobs went up by 2 million over the last year while full-time jobs fell by 1.35 million. That 3.35 million job differential is as wide as any other extreme outside of the GFC and Covid lockdowns, and it could get wider.
https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1785389906044367250
Housing affordability got cooked—FAST 🏡🧑🍳 The fastest ever deterioration. Considering U.S. home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes, national housing affordability is now hovering around the most strained levels in 4 decades
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1785320575516217796
For those of you saying it’s only coastal areas because Al Gore is finally going to get it right for once, or windstorm insurance or whatever, it’s not. This gentleman correctly points out Austin, Texas is red like a rash all over the map with homes suddenly for sale. So is San Antonio. So is Dallas. It’s a major housing correction underway.
https://twitter.com/his_eminence_j/status/1785357087117103404
11 days on the market, NOT A SINGLE OFFER. Any guesses why? Part of me truly thinks it’s just the area. 215k is evidently still too expensive for many people for this area. I’m adding a fence around the whole property (3k~) hopefully that helps.
I’m concluding a few things, 1. I’ll need to start making these a bit more affordable, especially in this area. I’m thinking 199k max. 2. Perhaps it’s just high interest rates that are making this difficult to afford for many. 3. Lastly if this home doesn’t sell, I’ll refinance what I have into it and turn it into a rental.
https://twitter.com/GrulkeLamonte/status/1785419370979557524
It would probably make a big difference if you could convince your neighbor to let you clean up the yard.
https://twitter.com/spencertbarber/status/1785431461832818856
It’s fair to say that Yellen-JPOW have failed. They clearly wanted to curb the deficit not through spending (politically impossible in an election year), but through lower inflation => lower rates, lower cost of debt, lower deficit => lower cost of debt etc… This is not happening and they need a plan B. They need it urgently because the cost of debt is spiraling totally out of control.
https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1785332909777338680
4-Week Moving Average of Job Cuts
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1785475980213035275
3,715 job cuts in California today per latest state regulator (CA EDD) update
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1785384013269549220
“11 days on the market, NOT A SINGLE OFFER. Any guesses why? Part of me truly thinks it’s just the area. 215k is evidently still too expensive for many people for this area. I’m adding a fence around the whole property (3k~) hopefully that helps.”
It’s mindlessly easy to fix the problem: Reduce asking price to 10% below market value, spark a bidding war, then accept the highest offer.
“Starbucks stock, $SBUX, crashes 10% after reporting quarterly earnings results.”
There goes 10% of my former SBUX barristo son’s net worth.
I wonder how much corporate welfare Oracle managed to squeeze out of Nashville and Tennessee to move their HQ there? And they moved it to Austin just 4 years ago.
Corporate welfare locusts…
“Dallas Fed survey respondent: “We have not been this slow since the Great Recession. This includes Covid. We cannot understate how terrible the prospective real estate market is. People are not filing zoning cases, meaning in two years there will not be construction.”
I can tell you as a building inspector in a decent city out West that aside from the really big builders permits have dropped off a cliff. And we all know the big builders will keep doing what they do all the way down until they’ve squeezed every last drop out this dying bubble.
“IRS auditor says PPP loans went to buy real estate, not pay to keep employees”
It wasn’t just interest rates that exacerbated the problem during COVID. I can attest that I’ve heard so many stories of this happening with PPP and ERC. Even if only half the stories are true it’s incredible the amount of fraud that was perpetrated during the insanity of the last 4 years.
Yellen said that inflation was transitory. Don’t be such a negative Nancy and trust the data. Just trust our ultra competent Treasury Secretary.
Does it seem like Wall Street is in a slow motion crash?
U.S. Markets
Nasdaq, S&P 500 fall as investors take cover before Fed decision
By Shristi Achar A and Shashwat Chauhan
May 1, 2024 8:51 AM PDT
Updated an hour ago
May 1 (Reuters) – The tech-heavy Nasdaq and the benchmark S&P 500 slipped on Wednesday as chip stocks led losses on downbeat results and markets weighed fresh economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in April, while a separate reading showed U.S. manufacturing contracted. A measure of prices paid by factories for inputs approached a two-year high.
The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates at the end of its two-day meeting, after a spate of recent disappointing inflation readings crushed bets of rapid rate cuts this year.
Money markets are pricing in just about 30 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in 2024, down from around 150 bps seen at the start of the year, according to LSEG data.
“There’s no dot plot, so it’s all about the press conference. It’s just simply whether (Fed Chair) Powell is more hawkish than his last appearance,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO and portfolio manager at InfraCap.
“I would really see how strongly he pushes back on the notion of rate increases.”
…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-fall-chip-stocks-drag-fed-rate-decision-awaited-2024-05-01/
Financial Times
Opinion Unhedged
The Fed is stuck, and so are stocks
Growth is still strong and inflation too high
Robert Armstrong
Montage of US dollar bills and NY skyline
Stocks could be stuck in a sideways pattern until the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates
Robert Armstrong yesterday
Good morning. Unhedged is very happy to be back after a week and a half away. Most of last week I was in Switzerland, at a Bank for International Settlements conference. (Unhedged is now just me, until I find a replacement for the irreplaceable Ethan.) There, I learned a lot about how the Basel global banking standards are negotiated. The short version: it’s hard going, but it gets done because everyone involved has a pressing interest in a banking system that doesn’t break all the time. On Friday, I’ll publish an interview with Agustín Carstens, head of the BIS and the central bankers’ central banker. Meanwhile, email me: robert.armstrong@ft.com.
The Fed is stuck, and so are stocks
I won’t flatter myself with the notion that Unhedged is its readers only source of financial news. All the same, it is worth summing up what has happened over the last 10 days or so, while the letter was on hold. Over that time, the overall picture has not so much changed direction as consolidated significantly, in a way that will inform what we hear from the Federal Reserve’s meeting today.
There is now even stronger evidence that the US real economy is growing at an above-trend pace, and inflation is stuck above target. So expectations for lower interest rates have receded still further, causing stock markets to lose their giddiness.
Last Thursday’s first-quarter gross domestic product report showed growth of 1.6 per cent, suggesting a slowdown. This was deceptive. Both the trade deficit and inventories were a drag, but demand is undiminished. Final sales to domestic purchasers grew at an annual rate just a shade under 3 per cent, only a bit slower than the previous quarter. Real personal consumption expenditures (last Friday) confirmed the signal.
Investment is adding to demand, too. Real private investment, both residential and non-residential, are rising nicely. The manufacturing sector, as we have noted before, is finally expanding, if slowly. This is all great, except that the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is just plain old going in the wrong direction:
Wrong direction
A measure of wage inflation the Fed cares about, the employment cost index, came out yesterday, and it ticked up sequentially, too.
The markets saw the outlines of this picture before the recent data filled it in. The furious stock rally that began last October ended as April began, and except for a short sharp bounce driven by tech stocks, it’s been sideways-to-down since:
It has been suggested that the market malaise is down to worries about growth, or even stagflation. I do not think the data support this reading. Andrew Brenner of NatAlliance suggested a bad consumer confidence reading from the Conference Board and a poor Dallas Fed Services Survey, both released yesterday, are evidence of creeping softness. But the majority of the data points the other way. Yes, companies that cater to lower-income households continue to report weakening demand, as the FT reported yesterday. But as Unhedged has pointed out before, distress among low-income, high-debt consumers is consistent with a US economy that is strong in aggregate.
…
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officials found evidence that the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines caused multiple deaths before claiming that there was no evidence linking the vaccines to any deaths, The Epoch Times has learned.
CDC employees worked to track down information on reported post-vaccination deaths and learned that myocarditis—or heart inflammation, a confirmed side effect of the vaccines—was listed on death certificates and in autopsies for some of the deaths, according to an internal file obtained by The Epoch Times.
Myocarditis was also described as being caused by vaccination in a subset of the deaths.
In other cases, the CDC workers found that deaths met the agency’s definition for myocarditis, that the patients started showing symptoms within 42 days of a vaccine dose, and that the deceased displayed no virus-related symptoms. Officials say that after 42 days, a possible link between the vaccine and symptoms becomes tenuous, and they list post-vaccination deaths as unrelated if they can find any possible alternative causes.
image-5640001
Vials of Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines. (Hazem Bader/AFP via Getty Images)
In cases with those three features, it’s “absolutely” safe to say that the vaccines caused the deaths, Dr. Clare Craig, a British pathologist and co-chair of the Health Advisory and Recovery Team Group, told The Epoch Times in an email.
Despite the findings, most of which were made by the end of 2021, the CDC claimed that it had seen no signs linking the Moderna and Pfizer messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines to any deaths reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
CDC officials in a letter to The Epoch Times dated June 13, 2023, said that there were no deaths reported to the VAERS for which the agency determined “the available evidence” indicated Moderna or Pfizer vaccination “caused or contributed to the deaths.”
The agency also said that evidence from seven deaths from thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome following the Johnson & Johnson vaccination suggested that the vaccine led to people dying.
“That’s a scandal, where you have information like this and you continue to put out this dishonest line that there’s only seven deaths and they’re all unrelated to the mRNA vaccines,” Dr. Andrew Bostom, a heart expert based in the United States, told The Epoch Times.
The CDC is “concealing these deaths,” he said.
People who die in the United States with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 are counted as COVID-19 deaths. That count has included a number of deaths from unrelated causes. The CDC also in 2023 advised death certifiers to include COVID-19 on certificates even if the deaths happened years after COVID-19 infection.
“They are taking the exact opposite approach to COVID deaths! Every death after a test was a COVID death. No death after a vaccine is a vaccine death!” Dr. Craig said. She questioned what it would take for the CDC to admit that the vaccines have caused some myocarditis-related deaths.
The file shows the CDC examined 3,780 reports through April 13, 2023, a small number of which were duplicates. Among the reported cases, 101 resulted in death.
In one instance, a 37-year-old man started suffering symptoms that can be caused by myocarditis, such as shortness of breath, shortly after receiving a Moderna COVID-19 shot. The man collapsed three days after vaccination and was soon pronounced dead.
Dr. Darinka Mileusnic, the medical examiner who examined the man, said in an autopsy report that the patient died of “post vaccination systemic inflammation response” which caused, among other problems, acute myocarditis, according to the CDC file.
The CDC worker who was assigned to look into the death wrote that it was “evident of a sudden death post second dose of Moderna vaccine.”
“One of the factor[s] to death [sic] is acute myocarditis. There are other findings related to VAE [vaccine adverse event] and non vaccine related. Thus, it can’t be distinguished that only vaccine may have caused the death,” the CDC employee wrote.
Dr. Mileusnic declined a request for comment through her employer, the Knox County Regional Forensic Center in Tennessee. The center said it would only provide an autopsy report if the decedent’s name and date of death were provided. The CDC file did not include names.
After another man, 24, died on Oct. 27, 2021, about two months after receiving a second Pfizer injection, his health care provider diagnosed him with myocarditis. An autopsy listed “complications of COVID-19 vaccine-related myocarditis” as the cause of death, according to the file.
A post-mortem test for COVID-19 returned negative, there were no viral organisms found in post-mortem testing of the heart, and there were no other signs of viruses causing the myocarditis, the notes show.
Another vaccine recipient, a 77-year-old man, was found dead at home on Nov. 14, 2021. The autopsy confirmed the man had pericarditis and listed the cause of death as “complications from the COV-19 booster,” according to the file.
Lot numbers for the vaccines injected into people who died were among the information in the file redacted by the CDC. Some vaccine lots have caused significantly more problems than others, according to CDC data obtained by the nonprofit Informed Consent Action Network.
Deaths in other countries from vaccine-induced myocarditis have been reported in journals, including deaths among young people. More deaths from vaccines in cases that didn’t include myocarditis have been confirmed by international authorities. Death certificates obtained by The Epoch Times from several U.S. states have also listed the COVID-19 vaccines as causing or contributing to dozens of deaths.
The file and a tranche of emails also obtained by The Epoch Times shows the agency started intervening shortly after the vaccines were introduced in post-vaccination cases that led to death and sometimes overruled the certifier.
Take the case of a 23-year-old man who left home on April 13, 2021, to go for a jog and was found dead on the side of the road. His death occurred four days after receiving Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine.
An autopsy found myocarditis and the case met the CDC’s case definition for myocarditis. But the CDC’s Infectious Diseases Pathology Branch (IDPB) then weighed in. “Per IDPB evaluation, not myocarditis,” the notes for the case say.
The evaluation is one of the documents the CDC has refused to disclose. It also refused to answer questions about the man’s death or other specific cases, referring vaguely to privacy.
Dr. Bostom, after reviewing the notes on the case, said it was a “clear-cut” example of vaccine-caused myocarditis.
The CDC doesn’t conduct autopsies itself but gathers the files as part of the investigation. Autopsies aren’t perfect but are considered the gold standard in figuring out the cause of death, Dr. Bostom said. “It’s about the strongest evidence we can get,” he said.
Two of the cases in the file were reported by Dr. James Gill, the chief medical examiner of Connecticut, and several other doctors in a February 2022 peer-reviewed paper. The doctors revealed findings of atypical myocarditis in two teenagers after Pfizer vaccination, describing it as a “post-vaccine reaction” that might have developed due to “an excessive inflammatory response.”
The CDC’s position is not surprising since it was among agencies that “were the leaders of the disinformation campaign to convince the American public, including George Watts, Jr., that experimental vaccines were safe and effective even before they were licensed,” Ray Flores, an attorney representing the Watts family in a lawsuit filed against the government, told The Epoch Times via email.
“Now everyone knows they’ve unequivocally been shown to kill,” he said.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/exclusive-cdc-found-evidence-covid-19-vaccines-caused-deaths-5632265
100% safe and effective.
Central Banker Tells WEF That Covid Helps With The Transition to a Cashless Society
Sean Miller | Infowars
May 1st 2024, 8:11 am
While speaking at the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) ‘Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy Development‘ Sunday, Central Bank of Bahrain governor Khalid Humaidan told the ‘Open Forum: The Digital Currencies’ Opportunity in the Middle East‘ panel that the goal of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is to replace cash with digital payments, and that the Covid pandemic was a convenient helper toward that goal.
“I think the transition to fully digital [currency] is not going to be a stretch, people are used to it, people are engaged in it, and circumstances that help is adoption rates increased because of Covid,” Humaidan said.
https://www.infowars.com/posts/central-banker-tells-wef-that-covid-helps-with-the-transition-to-a-cashless-society
We were well on the way to a cashless society long before COVID hit. Credit and debit cards had been trying to get rid of cash transactions, especially the under-$20 transactions, for the past 20 years. At least.
“Covid Helps With The Transition to a Cashless Society”
Sounds like another great way for the central bankers to increase homelessness, in addition to their unaffordable housing measures. An untold amount of economic activity would never occur in the absence of physical cash, leaving those at the bottom wrung of the socioeconomic ladder closer to the street.
If course those of us with mainstream jobs and cell phones that support Venmo payments will be just fine.
just fine
Maybe not when the power is out.
I’m starting to see people paying with wads of cash again, just like in 2006. The woman in front of me at the dollar store (middle eastern) pulled out a Bennie to buy $30 of party supplies. Somebody is getting subsidies under the table.
SC lawmakers demand investigation into claims noncitizens received state voter forms
By Macon Atkinson
8 hrs ago
GREENVILLE — A state lawmaker is calling for a hearing with South Carolina’s Medicaid director following allegations the agency sent voter registration materials to a non-U.S. citizen — but the state Election Commission said it has no evidence that people were fraudulently being registered to vote.
Rep. Jordan Pace, R-Goose Creek, a member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus, sent a letter requesting an investigation to the chairs of the House Legislative Oversight Committee and House Medical, Military, Public and Municipal affairs April 30.
“Upon discovery that Health and Human Services has been distributing voter registration forms to non-citizen migrants, I request an emergency hearing with the Director of Health and Human Services to clarify details and answer why these forms are being given to non-citizens,” he wrote.
https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/voter-registration-medicaid-sc-nonresident-adam-morgan/article_2fee2ea0-0711-11ef-95df-176fb6549ebe.html
Adam Morgan
@RepAdamMorgan
🚨Is the Federal Gov giving voter registration forms to non-citizens?
Yes, at least in SC. A refugee sent us this form that was given to her in a packet at the Social Security Office in Spartanburg. She asked “Why are they giving these to non-citizens?”
EXACTLY.
8:28 AM · Apr 29, 2024
https://x.com/RepAdamMorgan/status/1784922704820273319
Arthur Laffer, of the Laffer Curve fame, heaps praise on former president Trump’s economic policies while interviewed on Adam Taggart’s Thoughtful Money channel
https://youtu.be/pDbFNHsfW7g?t=1235
* BTW, this is a worthwhile interview. ~50-min, 41-sec
If Treasury Bonds Hit 5%, You’re Gonna See Some Serious Sh*t
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-treasury-bonds-hit-5-youre-gonna-see-some-serious-sht
Almost as if all of us Austrian Economists (read: any carbon based life form using common sense when it comes to finance) live in an echo chamber together, a third expert I respect came out over the last few days and has warned that 5% on the 10 year treasury would be the breaking point for markets and the economy.
Peter Schiff now argues that the Federal Reserve and US Treasury are being forced to confront the reality that inflation is persistent, which has led to an increase in yields, recently reaching 4.7% on the 10 year, the highest since November.
The thought process, for financial neophytes, is that bond traders will continue to sell bonds, driving yields up, in order to make it difficult for the Fed to cut rates — and essentially forcing the Fed to fight inflation head-on instead of capitulating to the economy and markets (should they crash).
This follows Jack Boroudjian’s analysis from last week, stating that rates will keep drifting higher and that 5% to 5.5% is the danger zone: Yields To Trigger “Serious Earthquakes” Across Economy: Jack Boroudjian
It also follows Harris Kupperman’s similar take: Bond Market About To Have An “Aneurism”: Harris Kupperman
Put simply, the Fed faces a dilemma: it needs to raise rates to combat inflation and make Treasuries more appealing, but higher rates would exacerbate the already burdensome debt servicing costs and threaten industries reliant on borrowing. Or, to use the parlance of my recent interview with Matt Taibbi, higher rates simply serve up another day of “sh*t burgers” to the economy, whereas lower rates act as rocket fuel for economic activity (and market confidence).
Schiff warned last week that once the 10-year Treasury yield surpasses 5%, it enters perilous territory for debt-dependent sectors like automotive and commercial real estate. He writes:
The only way the Fed can possibly tame inflation is with interest rates so high that everything collapses. Jamie Dimon himself sees 8% interest rates being needed to tame America’s Fed-fueled inflation beast — but with an economy addicted to a low cost of borrowing, this would make loans unaffordable for entire sectors of the economy that can’t do without.
A serious implosion in commercial real estate would certainly bleed into the banking sector, beginning a chain reaction. Meanwhile, with no chance of the US reigning in spending and getting its fiscal house in order, interest on the US debt can already only be paid with even more borrowed money.
And that chain reaction may already be in the works, as yet another bank failed last week when state regulators shut down Republic First Bank in Philadelphia on Friday evening, transferring its assets to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC):
As of January 31, 2024, Republic Bank had approximately $6 billion in total assets and $4 billion in total deposits. The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) related to the failure of Republic Bank will be $667 million. The FDIC determined that compared to other alternatives, Fulton Bank’s acquisition of Republic Bank is the least costly resolution for the DIF, an insurance fund created by Congress in 1933 and managed by the FDIC to protect the deposits at the nation’s banks. Republic Bank is the first U.S. bank failure this year; the last failure was Citizens Bank, Sac City, Iowa on November 3, 2023.
Even more concerning is that some of the usual suspects who defend the Fed or the Keynesian line — like Art Laffer, who claimed in 2006 that the impending housing crisis was going to be nothing more than a “nice slow down” — also agrees.
Laffer, president of Laffer Tengler Investments and usually a foil to Schiff’s analysis, told Reuters last week: “Inflation is not coming down like the Fed thought it was. You’re not getting paid to take risk in the bond market right now.”
What’s next — Paul “CPI ex-everything you can possible buy doesn’t look too bad and we should claim victory over inflation” Krugman having a reality check, too?
I won’t hold my breath.
“The fiscal conditions of the U.S. are starting to matter, and it can put tremendous pressure on yields and push down on equity valuations in a very short period of time if the market starts to worry more,” said another analyst, Bryant VanCronkhite, who put a little Wall Street jargon lipstick on the pig of his broader point: markets could fucking crash.
I think Schiff is dead on — with limited options and banks now failing, the Fed may even try to resort to rate cuts or quantitative easing to avert a bond market collapse and stimulate borrowing while rates are high. If this happens, and the Fed prioritizes short-term stability over long-term consequences, it would be like dousing the pilot light of inflation with a 55 gallon barrel of naphtha — which is, to say the least, an explosion. The price of everything that isn’t bolted to the ground will soar: the good (financial assets, gold, etc.), the bad (everyday consumer items), and the ugly (costs of running a business, which will lop on more pressure to raise wages).
“This is especially true now, as the Fed doesn’t want to anger the incumbent during an election year,” Schiff writes, “giving it further impetus to make the economy look as rosy as possible, at least until the start of the next presidential cycle.”
And I’m inclined to side with the Austrians on this one — without gold or other hard assets and sound money in this situation, you risk becoming a case study in what inflation can do to purchasing power in the worst type of way. Personally, I’m partial to gold miners and the GDX still, but hey — read the below disclaimer carefully.
The nation’s central bank offered no surprises in its latest interest rate decision.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would be holding interest rates steady, continuing the pause on rates that began in September. It’s further proof that the Federal Reserve is waiting for more economic data to ensure confidence that the economy is moving in the right direction before implementing any rate cuts.
While the FOMC projected three interest rate cuts for 2024, inflation is not quite where the Fed needs it to be. The Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation, rose 3.5% year-over-year in March, a slight increase from the 3.2% year-over-year reading in February.
Even with a strong labor market, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed has more work to do to get closer to its 2% inflation target — meaning rates could stay higher for longer than Americans might have hoped.
“The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said during a panel discussion in Washington in April.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fed-once-again-holds-interest-180046007.html
“We are not seeking a bailout,’ said Jeffrey DeBoer, chief executive at the Real Estate Roundtable”
Yes, you are.
Does it seem like a lot of “experts” have no idea what an inverted yield curve signifies?
Yahoo
Bloomberg
Treasury Tsunami Has New Power to Lift Yields, Barclays Says
Michael Mackenzie
Tue, Apr 30, 2024, 9:26 AM PDT
3 min read
(Bloomberg) — Growth in the size of the US Treasury market is likely to keep upward pressure on yields even if the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, in contrast to historical patterns, according to strategists at Barclays Plc.
Though unlikely to soar to levels much beyond 5%, Treasury yields “are likely to buck the historical trend of falling as the Fed’s easing cycle begins,” Barclays’ US rates research team led by Anshul Pradhan said in a report.
That’s not only because large budget deficits and associated Treasury supply “are here to stay,” but also because the low sensitivity of long-term interest rates to deficit trends may become a thing of the past.
The various factors that have allowed Treasury yields to decline during periods of wide deficits and debt expansion “are likely to turn less supportive,” the analysts wrote. “As a result, historical analysis could very well be understating the sensitivity of interest rates to the worsening fiscal profile.”
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to a six-month high near 4.75% in April as resilient US economic data prompted traders to pare expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. It was about 4.65% on Tuesday. The Barclays strategists expect it to stabilize in the 4.5% to 5% range over the coming year even as the Fed lowers its policy rate at least to 3.5%-3.75% and possibly by an additional half point.
Under that scenario, the Treasury yield curve, “which has been inverted for almost two years now,” with long-maturity lower than short-maturity yields, “should return to its normal upward-sloping shape sooner than many expect.”
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-yields-stay-elevated-supply-081335130.html
‘the low sensitivity of long-term interest rates to deficit trends may become a thing of the past’
Well!
“This time is different.”
They know full well what it means. It means NOTHING. People have been blathering and screeching about inverted yield curves since 2018 and what has happened? Nothing.
Everybody’s an expert until the trade turns on them. The people who know how to pivot are the real experts and they’re not sharing their knowledge.
We are days away from a TOTAL US debt of $100 trillion.
Apr 30, 2024
UT Statement Regarding Arrests from Monday’s Protest and Confiscation of Weapons
The University of Texas learned Tuesday that, of the 79 people arrested on our campus Monday, 45 had no affiliation with UT Austin. These numbers validate our concern that much of the disruption on campus over the past week has been orchestrated by people from outside the University, including groups with ties to escalating protests at other universities around the country.
To date, from protesters, weapons have been confiscated in the form of guns, buckets of large rocks, bricks, steel enforced wood planks, mallets, and chains. Staff have been physically assaulted and threatened, and police have been headbutted and hit with horse excrement, while their police cars have had tires slashed with knives. This is calculated, intentional and, we believe, orchestrated and led by those outside our University community.
We will continue to safeguard the free speech and assembly rights of everyone on our campus, while we protect our University and students, who are preparing for their final exams.
https://news.utexas.edu/2024/04/30/ut-statement-regarding-monday-arrests-and-confiscation-of-weapons/
“of the 79 people arrested on our campus Monday, 45 had no affiliation with UT Austin”
Soros paychecks.
I still hang out on trucker forums (as before the world imploded that’s what I was involved in). Everyone is very slow. One guy does coke deliveries (to the stores) and he’s down to under 40 hours a week. (typically local truckers work 55 to 60 hours a week). Most everyone is slow with low paying or short routes.
And the owner operators are talking about terrible rates. ($2/mile ish, it costs about $1.50/mile just to run the truck). Some guys have been parked or taking vacations cuz there’s no point in running to lose money on purpose.
Most trucking firms (of all sizes, 1 truck to 10,000 trucks) are massively indebted and esp the bigger firms as their debt starts to roll at higher rates from the last few years. Going to be some big bankruptcies.
Transportation always leads.
And yet it’s taken 2 weeks for a freight delivery I’m waiting for to get from CA to GA. Still not sure when it will actually get to me…
(don’t ever order furniture from Wayfair!)
When you’re not making money, it’s hard to give super expedited service. The load will go when it’s full.
“This encourages people to involve themselves in real estate schemes, [telling them], ‘In the end, nothing really happens to you, so go for it.’”
This is the never ending story for real estate developers and grifters.
Regulations, laws, and all the politicians never seem to quite close the doors. Translation: Lobbyists
‘the median price for luxury homes fell 28 percent to just over $13 million. In Palm Beach…luxury home and condo sales fell 10 percent to nine closings; and the median price fell 18 percent to $14 million’
‘huge demand’ still exists. ‘It’s just the very high-end buyers thinking the market is going to come down’
It’s going down right now Nelson.
‘All of the sudden, one day, you start to notice cracks in your basement, and you come to find out that your house is worthless…That’s devastating for anybody to have to face’ So far, state officials believe around 7,500 homes across Massachusetts could be at risk’
You mean worth less, right Peter?
‘ABC was the subject of a 2022 Inquirer investigation that found Walsh and his partners collected funds from hundreds of investors from more than a half-dozen countries with promises to buy, renovate, and rent out rowhouses to generate steady returns. ABC was involved in the purchase of some 1,900 Philadelphia properties through hundreds of shell companies, before moving on to other U.S. cities. But investors said that after taking their money, ABC did not complete the renovations. Karla Cruel, a lawyer who has represented tenants dealing with ABC, said the lack of more aggressive enforcement efforts has contributed to a culture of impunity for real-estate fraudsters. “This encourages people to involve themselves in real estate schemes, [telling them], ‘In the end, nothing really happens to you, so go for it’
Real estate money laundering is a guberment racket Karla.
‘drove from her home in Hollywood to Oakland to join Monday’s protest. She paid thousands of dollars for her loan in cash and now wonders if she’ll be able to recoup the money. ‘They sent an email showing me blueprints of the plans they had finished, but when I went to the city, they had not received any plans or approved a permit or anything,’ Amaya said through a Spanish translator on Monday. ‘That was my life savings, my retirement’
You got schlonged Maria.
‘2024 will be the year that more owners decide to sell their properties at a loss or realize that they need to convert or redevelop their properties to non-office use’
How do those 5% cap rates look now Savills?
‘We are not seeking a bailout…Instead, DeBoer talked of a ‘slow moving train wreck’ bearing down on commercial real estate, especially with a backdrop where liquidity has been pinched and with roughly half of the estimated $4.7 trillion of the debt on commercial buildings set to mature through 2027. Many of ‘these mortgages need to be extended and restructured,’ DeBoer said, adding that the banking system isn’t currently encouraged to do that’
Jerry broke it off in yer a$$ Jeff.
‘originally sold for $981,000 in January 2022….Finally, the home was relisted for $689,900 in February 2024 and successfully sold just above its asking price for $720,000, although this amount was roughly $260,000 less than it was originally sold for just two years earlier’
You gotta to be in it to win it.
These Condo Prices Don’t Make Any Sense (GTA Condo Real Estate Market Update)
Team Sessa Real Estate
1 hour ago TORONTO
In this episode we take a look at the current GTA Condo Markets – Toronto, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham, Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering for week ending April 24, 2024. We also discuss the massive difference between preconstruction pricing vs. resale pricing for new/almost new units and why it’s been making it difficult for our clients to justify getting into the preconstruction space.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daCzjQU_OvY
16:30.
‘Our conversations are centred around what they can expect to pay on their mortgage payment when it comes up for renewal,’ Ms. Dieno says. ‘The discussion is scary, as some clients are expecting [an increase of] anywhere from $500 to $2,500 a month on mortgage payments just because of the increase in interest rates. I think that is the leading cause of financial anxiety amongst homeowners’
It’s still a red hotcakes sellers market in Saskatoon Janea.
‘The most recent instalment of the survey, issued in early April, found almost half of Canadians (45 per cent) say they are $200 or less away from ‘failing to meet all their financial obligations, including three in 10 (31 per cent) who are technically insolvent and say they already can’t cover their bills and debt payments each month. Additionally, more than half (54 per cent) say if interest rates go up much more, they will be in financial trouble’
That may be, but K-dns are the biggest winnahs! on the planet.
‘The retired resident lives with his wife in the Wyldecrest Parks property they purchased in 2022 and says the tanks have to be emptied every six days because ‘something is not right’ with the system. ‘It’s beginning to make our properties unsellable because it’s giving us such a bad name,’ he said. ‘Who is going to want to buy a property on a Wyldecrest Park in a minute?’
So it takes 5 minutes Brian, or maybe a day. Yer ship has come in!
the tanks
Aren’t they at least 1,000 gallons? How do two people run that much water in six days?
The U.S. EPA estimated indoor daily water consumption per capita for new construction is 49-gal.
‘Quantitative easing will lose about £20bn a year until the early 2030s, according to the latest estimates by the Bank of England, which is equivalent to a third of the defence budget. Successive Chancellors agreed to indemnify the Bank against any losses on the scheme, leaving the taxpayer on the hook for the losses. estimates. Losses are mounting from the £895bn bond-buying scheme carried out between 2009 and 2021’
‘The RBNZ expected the average interest rate paid by those with mortgages to rise from around 6 per cent in February to 6.5 per cent by the end of the year. Back in 2021, the average interest rate being paid by mortgage holders was only 2.8 per cent’
Nobody could have seen that coming.
New battlegrounds emerge in California’s endless housing conflict
Avatar photo by Dan Walters May 1, 2024
Casa Sueños, an affordable housing complex at 3500 E. 12th St. in Oakland on Aug 7, 2023.
Photo by Semantha Norris, CalMatters
In summary
California’s perpetual political war over housing, pitting the state against local communities, has two new battlegrounds: one on the San Francisco Peninsula, the other in Southern California.
At least once a month a new front opens in California’s political guerrilla war between state and local officials over housing.
The Legislature and Gov. Gavin Newsom have issued a steady stream of laws and regulations aimed at forcing the state’s nearly 500 cities to embrace housing development, particularly apartments for low-income families.
Communities that shun such housing, saying it degrades the bucolic ambience of their neighborhoods, respond by dragging their feet, challenging the state’s authority in court or fashioning new barriers. The state counters with threats to cut off funds for public works, more laws that supersede local land use authority, and threats of lawsuits.
Two such clashes have surfaced in recent weeks: one involving Portola Valley, a very affluent village on the San Francisco Peninsula, the other a coalition of cities governed by their own charters, rather than state law.
In January, Portola Valley became one of the first Bay Area communities to have its “housing element” – a plan for meeting housing quotas – approved by the state Department of Housing and Community Development.
By late March, Portola Valley became the first California city to have its housing element decertified. State officials said the town’s council had failed to make the necessary changes in zoning to accommodate the 253 housing units in its quota.
Portola Valley’s wealthy residents and officials obviously don’t want affordable apartments that would alter its rustic atmosphere, but if they continue to stall they run the risk of triggering the so-called “builder’s remedy,” under which projects could proceed without local approval.
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https://calmatters.org/commentary/2024/05/new-battlegrounds-california-housing-crisis/
I don’t get why the rich folks can’t just live in peace in their exclusive enclaves without being forced to build low income housing. Is the goal to turn every California city into San Francisco?
The Old Breed and the Costs of War | Eugene B. Sledge (1994)
misesmedia
5 months ago MISES INSTITUTE
“It has been said that the combat veteran has to live through the experience and then, if he survives, he has to live with it the rest of his life. How you handle yourself and what you make of yourself depends a great deal on your upbringing, your discipline, and things of this sort.”
Recorded at the Mises Institute’s “Costs of War” conference in May 1994 in Auburn, Alabama.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsfgOcnoFZ8
38 minutes.
I read “With the Old Breed” many times before “The Pacific” premiered on HBO. I love that book and I still have my original copy. God bless you Sledgehammer, SNAFU, Ack-Ack and all the other Marines who sacrificed their lives and sanity to defend us from Imperial Japan.
In the early 60s, as a kid in my PJs, I turned the TV on to catch the early Saturday morning cartoons. It was just a test pattern. I waited. No sound, even though I turned it up. The TV was in Mom and Dad’s bedroom. They started their broadcast with the National Anthem.
My dad was standing at attention with a salute in a heartbeat. Then he woke up!
How the Government Tried to Hide the Hunter Biden Laptop Story by Attacking Dan Ball and OAN
Tucker Carlson
2 hours ago
Democrats in Congress are working to shut down a TV network that criticized them. That’s illegal but it’s happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qyxn5hbwlUM
30 minutes.
I’m 3 minutes in, the comments section is worth reading also. I am now going back to listen to the last 27 minutes.
Libs of TikTok
@libsoftiktok
Meet Carl Jerome Hamilton, a career criminal in Nashville with over 105 convictions since 2007.
He was just arrested for attacking, kidnapping, and then r*ping an Amazon delivery woman.
How is a monster with 105 convictions out on the streets and not in jail?!
10:15 PM · Apr 30, 2024
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https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1785493266680443246
“How is a monster with 105 convictions out on the streets and not in jail?!”
The paradox of wokeness.