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People Have Probably Let It All Go Too Long, And There’s A Lot Of Denial Around The Situation They’re In

A report from the Naples Daily News in Florida. “Royal Palm’s inventory has surpassed 6,300. That’s more than 50% higher than a year ago as 1,930 new listings were added in May. A similar trend is pumping up Naples Area Board of Realtors, which has 67.1% more available than 12 months earlier, with 1,201 fresh additions in May. That’s also happening at the same time as another continuing shift. ‘There were more price decreases than new listings in May,’ said Jeff Jones, broker at Keller Williams Naples. ‘Price reductions are good for our market. It tells us that sellers are finally realizing the market today won’t support aspirational pricing.'”

“The 1,710 NABOR price decreases in May go with 2,365 price decreases in April. ‘The list price decreases are a signal that we are moving toward pricing that reflects today’s home values,’ said Molly Lane, senior vice president at William Raveis Real Estate. ‘About 40% of the buyers we see at our new home developments in Southwest Florida are unable to qualify for loans,’ said Mike Bone, area sales manager for D.R. Horton. ‘Even with rate buydown programs and cash incentives, we are seeing enormous financing challenges.'”

The Wall Street Journal. “U.S. prosecutors are cracking down on commercial mortgage fraud, a growing push that is sending shudders through the $4.7 trillion industry by raising questions about the numbers underpinning major property loans. Regulators and federal prosecutors say that property loans based on doctored building financials and valuations have been rising. This type of fraud became more widespread between the mid-2010s and 2021, federal investigators and real-estate brokers say, when commercial property prices surged to new highs and landlords had much to gain from such maneuvers. Now, the drop in property values caused by higher interest rates and a rise in defaults is exposing more of these schemes, dealing another blow to a commercial real-estate market suffering through its worst stretch since the 2008-9 financial crisis.”

“‘It’s a general trend throughout history that fraud occurs during boom times and is revealed during bust times,’ said John Griffin, a professor of finance at the University of Texas’ McCombs School of Business. Since last fall, at least five different landlords of properties, mostly apartment buildings, in cities including Cincinnati, Hartford, Conn., and Little Rock, Ark., have pleaded guilty to federal fraud charges. Some allegedly doctored building income statements, others allegedly faked property sales at inflated prices, all to get bigger loans.”

“At the heart of the problem is the way lenders underwrite commercial mortgages. Borrowers typically submit financial statements called T-12 that show building income and expenses for the past year. Lenders use these documents to estimate the building’s value and calculate how much they are willing to lend. But in most cases they don’t audit these statements to verify that the sums listed in the spreadsheets actually flowed in and out of the landlord’s accounts.”

“A rental apartment complex in Tallahassee, Fla., financed by JP Morgan Chase, made around $296,000 in profit before mortgage payments in 2018, according to Michigan-based landlord ROCO Real Estate’s internal numbers, federal prosecutors said. But those weren’t the numbers lenders saw. ROCO told Chetrit Group, the New York firm that was in talks to buy the property, that profit was much higher—$644,000. ROCO arrived at the higher numbers in part by including rent that wasn’t actually collected and by leaving out concessions such as free-rent periods, an FHFA special agent testified in court.”

“Chetrit bought the building along with dozens of other properties across the U.S. from ROCO in 2019. JP Morgan Chase funded the deal with a $481 million loan, which it repackaged into bonds and sold to investors. An appraiser hired by the bank used ROCO’s inflated numbers to value the Tallahassee property at $5.78 million. JP Morgan Chase declined to comment. The mortgage on the Tallahassee property went into default in late 2022, according to data from the company managing the loan.”

“ROCO’s Tyler Ross last year pleaded guilty to falsifying financial statements at a number of properties. His lawyer told the Journal that while the T-12 statements Ross shared with Chetrit were inaccurate, he supplied the buyer with additional data that showed the building’s true financial state. In a similar case, a judge in January sentenced New York property manager Jacob Deutsch to more than five years in prison for defrauding lenders in connection with 24 multifamily mortgages in Hartford, Conn. Deutsch and his co-conspirator Aron Deutsch (who was sentenced to probation) overstated the number of renters in their buildings and inflated rental income, the Justice Department said.”

“Landlords have an incentive to come up with inflated building profits so that they can land bigger loans. But lenders also often have an incentive to accept these inflated numbers, especially if they plan to repackage the loan and sell it off to investors, Griffin said. That is because bigger loans mean bigger fees. ‘This space is littered with conflicts of interest,’ Griffin said.”

The Tri-City Herald in Washington. “Move-in specials, including free rent, are common as a wave of new construction coupled with hotel conversions adds a wave of new rental units to the market this year. The Tri-City Herald tallied more than 1,030 apartment units under construction in 2023. Today, many of those have started to welcome rent-paying tenants. But the market is considerably softer than it was a year ago, according to a study by CoStar Group, a real estate research firm, published by TMG, a Vancouver-based developer and property manager active in Tri-Cities.”

“The Tri-Cities vacancy rate topped 7.75% at the start of the year, more than double the 3.7% rate of 2020. The average market rent stood at $1,370 per month. That’s up 1.7%, but still well below 13% growth recorded in 2021. The 10-year average is 4.4%. The cool-off means it takes longer to fill new properties. It once took six to eight months to fully lease a new complex. Now, takes a year to 18 months. The cool-down has revived an old standard: Offering customers deals to sign leases. CoStar reports that it is now common to expect one month free. Some properties routinely offer three months.”

“The Tri-Cities apartment market is echoing a national trend, according to Tim Ufkes, a senior broker in the Seattle office of Marcus & Millichap, a commercial real estate brokerage. Ufkes specializes in apartment properties and works extensively in the Tri-Cities, including the Broadmoor development area. He said the market is soft nationally with nearly 500,000 new units coming into the system this year. ‘Concessions,’ ie free rent and related specials, are part of the process of balancing supply with demand. ‘The Tri-Cities will add about 2,000 units in 2024 and as a result, vacancies have indeed increased, rents are a little soft and concessions are definitely being offered,’ he said. The construction surge could end with a slowdown.”

Bisnow on California. “Miami-based Crescent Heights, owner of the 754-unit Nema San Francisco apartment building, agreed to pay its lenders $10.5M as part of a loan modification to retain control of the 37-story property, according to the San Francisco Business Times. A spokesperson for Crescent Heights confirmed to Bisnow that the parties arranged the loan modification. Last August, the $384M CMBS loan backed by Nema entered special servicing as rising interest rates placed upward pressure on the property’s operating expenses, resulting in a default, the Business Times reported.”

“Crescent Heights purchased the property in 2006 as a vacant office building. Originally, the firm planned to build a residential condominium project with about 720 units, but the subprime mortgage crisis forced the company to shift gears and develop rentals in 2012 instead. The asset lost more than half of its value from October 2018 to 2023, declining from about $544M to roughly $280M, SFist reported, citing a Trepp report.”

Burnaby Now in Canada. “If you were looking to buy a house in Burnaby last month, you may have a slight decrease in prices. Single-family detached homes hit $1,963,600 in Burnaby East (-2.1 per cent), $2,173,900 in Burnaby North (+0.9 per cent) and $2,264,900 in Burnaby South (-1.8 per cent), according to the latest Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) report. Burnaby South residential properties hit a benchmark price of $1,147,400 (-0.9 per cent compared to May). The GVR said sales totalled 2,418 last month throughout Metro Vancouver compared to 2,988 sales in June 2023, marking a 19.1 per cent decrease year over year.”

“‘The June data continued a trend we’ve been watching where buyers appear hesitant to transact in volumes we consider typical for this time of year, while sellers remain keen to bring their properties to market,’ Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics, said in a news release. ‘This dynamic is bringing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. This trend is providing buyers more selection to choose from and driving all market segments toward balanced conditions.’ Areas covered by Greater Vancouver Realtors include Burnaby, New Westminster, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, North Vancouver, West Vancouver and Whistler.”

The Globe and Mail. “Canada’s unemployment rate rose to a 29-month high of 6.4 per cent, data showed on Friday, highlighting that people might be losing jobs as the labour market struggles to absorb a rapidly swelling population. The jobs report, which also showed that youth unemployment reached almost a decade high barring the pandemic years. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group, said the sharp rise in the unemployment rate will have many questioning whether Canada has entered a recession.”

“‘Lowering interest rates is the only way to soften the blow from upcoming mortgage renewals and keep any hope of a soft landing alive,’ he said, adding that the BoC would cut rates by 25 basis points this month and another two rate cuts in the three meetings thereafter.”

The Luxembourg Times. “The fall in Luxembourg’s property prices has slowed in the second quarter, although costs have still dropped by 3.8% year-on-year, while rents have shot up again, real estate agency atHome said on Wednesday. That compares to a 9.3% annual drop in the first quarter of 2024 and similar downturns in the previous three quarters, the agency said. ‘This trend affects the whole of Luxembourg, although there are significant regional disparities,’ atHome said.”

“In the centre region, which includes Luxembourg City and its affluent suburbs and where real estate is most expensive, prices for flats dropped by 2.1% and those for houses by 3.8% in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2023. In the south, the most populous region, average prices plummeted by 6.1%, with flats and houses dropping by 6.4% and 5.6%, while the east saw an average price decrease of 2.5%, with houses dropping by 5.6% and flats inching up by 0.9%. The west saw the largest price correction at -6.6% on average while the north registered the smallest average drop at just 0.6%.”

“‘An analysis of price trends by quarter shows a gradual slowdown in the decline since the peak observed in the third quarter of 2023. This trend could herald a stabilisation of the market in the months ahead,’ atHome said. The atHome data is provisional as it refers to asking prices. The national housing observatory, which records actual transaction prices, said last week that Luxembourg’s real estate prices were down by almost 11% in the first quarter of 2024.”

Radio New Zealand. “The number of mortgagee sales looks to be on the rise – but they are still just a fraction of the total market, experts say. A mortgagee sale happens when a homeowner does not meet their mortgage repayments, so the property must be sold to repay the debt owed to the bank. TradeMe currently has 65 residential properties listed as mortgagee sales, which is 35 percent up on the same time last year. In Wellington, Bayleys regional general manager Grant Henderson said his team would usually appraise up to three properties a year for banks considering mortgagee sales. But lately, staff were hitting that number each month.”

“‘We’ve got a broad range, from developers who’ve found themselves in a sticky situation due to funding, we’ve found mums and dads that’ve got themselves just in the wrong situation, but also investors,’ he said. ‘People have probably let it all go too long, and there’s a lot of denial around the situation they’re in.'”

“Banks did not take such sales lightly, and it was an absolute last resort, he said. ‘Based on some of the things we’ve seen, these people have been in financial difficulty for a long time, it’s not just like, ‘you lost your job last month, this month we’re gonna close you down’, this takes a long time for the banks … to get to the point where they have to pull the pin.’ People got plenty of warning and communication from the bank – up to three years’ worth – before they exercise their mortgagee rights and force a sale, said Henderson. ‘Most pragmatic and practical mums and dads will get through it, but some people are just in that denial phase,’ he said.”

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This Post Has 49 Comments

  1. HBB warning to readers: wall street journal is globalist scum media that peddles conspiracy theories, election lies and mis, mal and dis-informations.

    2. “We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.”

      ― Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

  2. ‘Landlords have an incentive to come up with inflated building profits so that they can land bigger loans. But lenders also often have an incentive to accept these inflated numbers, especially if they plan to repackage the loan and sell it off to investors, Griffin said’

    Oh dear…

  3. “Royal Palm’s inventory has surpassed 6,300. That’s more than 50% higher than a year ago as 1,930 new listings were added in May.

    Is that a lot?

    2. No wonder Joe and Jill are digging in their high heels. They didn’t realize how quickly a coordinated cover could shift to a coordinated attack.

    3. Democrats had a presidential primary.

      Less than 6 months ago.

      Biden won overwhelmingly.

      Democracy bro.

      1. This whole thing is weird. He got the nomination, it’s just a few months now. There’s no rule that if you have a terrible debate you have to drop out. Last minute things happen that can trip up any campaign. Like having a laptop come out that implicates you in all manners of foreign and domestic bribery.

      2. It’s very typical for the incumbent party to not mount any serious primary challenges to the incumbent, especially at the Presidential level. It’s considered, at best, impolite.

        But this time, the incumbent is declining and they knew it. They knew he couldn’t make it another four years, but they still glossed over the primary season anyway, especially since RFK Jr. was a real threat. They made their bed; they can lie in it.

        The biggest issue now is voter turnout. If Biden or Harris are at the top of the ticket, people are going to stay home (or not mail in ballots) in droves. Say goodbye to every vulnerable downticket Dem.

  5. ‘Chetrit bought the building along with dozens of other properties across the U.S. from ROCO in 2019. JP Morgan Chase funded the deal with a $481 million loan, which it repackaged into bonds and sold to investors. An appraiser hired by the bank used ROCO’s inflated numbers to value the Tallahassee property at $5.78 million. JP Morgan Chase declined to comment. The mortgage on the Tallahassee property went into default in late 2022’

    So this bank flipped the bad loans to guberment backed ‘investors’ in GSE bonds. They probably pocketed a hefty fee for this hard work.

  6. ‘About 40% of the buyers we see at our new home developments in Southwest Florida are unable to qualify for loans,’ said Mike Bone, area sales manager for D.R. Horton.

    If you can’t get financed, yer not a buyer, Lying Mike.

      1. “Southwest 328th Street and Southeast 6th Street … growing sweet corn and green beans… Sandero Landing, a mixed-use development with more 1,170 residential units and more than 216,000 square feet of commercial space..”

        I’m going to give this a pass. That land is an oddball field surrounded by hundreds of mobile homes and old condos. At least this project will be urban infill and not encroach on the real farmland further west. Sweet corn and green beans are one-season crops that can be grown anywhere. It’s not as if they’re tearing down berry bushes or citrus trees. 1170 units sounds like more condos or zero-lot line villas. Kind of ugh, but that’s all that anyone builds these days anyway.

    2. Shouldn’t these people have known that they couldn’t get financing? Anyone looking for a home should at least know about the 2x-3x income rule. Or were they expecting to be given a nicer house because muh shelter is a human right?

  7. JP Morgan Chase funded the deal with a $481 million loan, which it repackaged into bonds and sold to investors.

    We’ve seen this movie before, and know how it ends (spoiler alert: idiot “investors” who bought toxic-waste MBS products from the likes of JPM are in for a DELIVERANCE-style reaming).

    The Big Short (2015) – Margot Robbie in a Bubble Bath Scene

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NozCgB7wVHY

  8. ‘ROCO’s Tyler Ross last year pleaded guilty to falsifying financial statements at a number of properties. His lawyer told the Journal that while the T-12 statements Ross shared with Chetrit were inaccurate, he supplied the buyer with additional data that showed the building’s true financial state’

    The ‘buyer’ was in on it from the get go, and just wanted the loan money which they probably never intended to pay back. Sound lending!

  9. ‘This space is littered with conflicts of interest,’ Griffin said.”

    Surely no bankster would risk provoking the wrath of Fauxahontus by engaging in such financial shenanigans. Look at the way she made an example out of…er…um…nobody.

  10. The asset lost more than half of its value from October 2018 to 2023, declining from about $544M to roughly $280M, SFist reported, citing a Trepp report.”

    Frens, please join me in a moment of silence in remembrance of all those trillions in dear departed Yellen Bux “wealth” winging their way to whatever afterlife awaits debauched fiat currencies as fictitious CRE & shack valuations melt away like FB tears in the rain.

  11. Outmigration cost California $24B in departed incomes as poorer people move in
    By Kenneth Schrupp | The Center Square
    Published: July 5, 2024 11:00pm

    (The Center Square) – Outmigration to other states cost California $24 billion in outgoing personal incomes across 2021 and 2022, according to new IRS data. Departing Californians were significantly wealthier and more likely to have children or spouses than incoming Americans, suggesting wealthy families are leaving the state as poorer individuals come to seek their California dream.

    California lost a net 144,203 tax filers in the two years, representing $24 billion in lost personal adjusted gross income for the state. Those leaving the state had 38% more dependents or joint filers on their tax returns and an average AGI of $130,946, while those coming in had an average AGI of $111,689, or about 15% less income than those leaving.

    “This will not bode well for California and its future personal income tax revenues,” said government and pension finance expert and former state Sen. John Moorlach to The Center Square. “It’s not only employees that are leaving, it’s entire businesses. Consequently, it’s not as if we need in-migration to fill empty positions. The positions left, too.”

    304 companies have left California since January 2019, according to the California Policy Center’s California Book of Exoduses, which tracks corporate exits from California.
    …
    https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/outmigration-cost-california-24b-departed-incomes-poorer-people-move

    1. “poorer individuals come to seek their California dream”

      They’re all illegals, and a net drain on taxpayers.

      1. They want to join the Free Sh!t Army. And the elites who let them enter unencumbered know that.

  13. “ mums and dads that’ve got themselves just in the wrong situation,

    If down there, “moms” is spelled “mums” then why isn’t “dads” spelled “Duds”

    You know, “Mums and Duds”

  15. David Axelrod, former White House Senior Advisor and Chief Political Strategist for President Barack Obama, posted on social media that Biden was “dangerously out-of-touch with the concerns people have” about his mental health. Axelrod wrote that at this point in 2020, Biden was “10 points ahead of Trump. Today, he is six points behind.”

    In a CNN column, Axelrod expressed concerns that are shared by many leading Democrats. He stated that Biden is behind nationally, in battleground states and is so weak “that Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia — appear to be in play.”

    Axelrod believes that if Biden does not withdraw, he will lose in a “landslide” to Trump, and it will “sully” his “historic legacy.”

    https://townhall.com/columnists/jeffcrouere/2024/07/08/the-rats-are-fleeing-the-sinking-ss-biden-n2641503

    What’s next, Hawaii?

    1. [Some Monday morning humor …]

      MSNBC Host Calls For Biden Aides To Be Allowed On Stage With Him At Next Debate

      https://www.zerohedge.com/political/msnbc-host-calls-biden-aides-be-allowed-stage-him-next-debate

      MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell has called for allowing Joe Biden to have aides with him on stage to speak for him and help him sound coherent.

      O’Donnell said that it would be good to “Allow the candidates to have as many staff as they want, join them on the stage throughout the debate, and make sure that all of them have microphones.”

      He added that “the candidates should be allowed to turn to their staff and confer with them about anything at any time in the debate.”

      “And we should be able to hear everything they say. So we can hear if the candidate has competent or incompetent staff, we could hear the candidate overrule some advisers and say something else,” he continued.

      “We could watch the candidates actually think and process information, including including possibly information that they might not know until a staff member tells them or reminds them,” O’Donnell further suggested.

      He continued, “A candidate should be allowed to let staff members actually answer questions for them.”

      When he says ‘candidates’ he means Biden, because Trump clearly doesn’t need people talking for him. Only the mentally deficient, incoherent, bumbling Biden needs that.

      What is this supposed to be? Show and tell at pre school?

      It’s a debate between candidates who are expected to lead the country. They shouldn’t need people to help them talk.

      It’s not a debate between the candidates if other people are doing the talking.

      O’Donnell is only putting the ludicrous suggestion out because it is clear that Biden is not running anything. His aides are doing it all.

      Indeed, an Axios report notes how literally everything Biden does is micromanaged and written down for him, down to where and when he walks and stands.

      The report notes that “One template — a copy of which was obtained by Axios — is short and simple, with one large picture of the event space on each page, accompanied with big text such as: ‘View from podium,’ and ‘View from audience.’ In the five-page document, two pages are separate pictures of, ‘Walk to podium.’”

      “Before a presidential event, the White House sends event staffers a document to emulate when preparing their own materials for the president,” the report further states.

      One staffer told Axios that “It surprised me that a seasoned political pro like the president would need detailed verbal and visual instructions on how to enter and exit a room.”

      This has been going on for years now:

      [Click on the link to watch the video.]

  16. ‘A rental apartment complex in Tallahassee, Fla., financed by JP Morgan Chase, made around $296,000 in profit before mortgage payments in 2018, according to Michigan-based landlord ROCO Real Estate’s internal numbers, federal prosecutors said. But those weren’t the numbers lenders saw. ROCO told Chetrit Group, the New York firm that was in talks to buy the property, that profit was much higher—$644,000. ROCO arrived at the higher numbers in part by including rent that wasn’t actually collected and by leaving out concessions such as free-rent periods, an FHFA special agent testified in court’

    So the magic pixie dust of rate caps works with fraud too. They more than doubled the gross income. I don’t see how they covered that up with uncollected rents and concessions. These guys are running a ruthless con. It’s a felony and has a high possibility of somebody going to jail. Not yer typical white collar crime.

  17. ** “I don’t see how they covered that up with uncollected rents and concessions. These guys are running a ruthless con. It’s a felony and has a high possibility of somebody going to jail. Not yer typical white collar crime.”

    Uncle Billy forgot the money in his folded newspaper.
    Gosh Darn-it & Jumpin’ Jehosephat!

    Hee Haw!!

    1. This kind of financial crime will eventually be found out. When it needs to refinance, or sell. You defrauded a bank and the US guberment! Big money. These are hard criminals IMO.

  18. Real Estate Red Alert: It Got Worse After the Rate Cut

    Honest real estate talk 🇨🇦

    2 hours ago

    Real estate market got no boost after the bank of canada rate cut in June. A lot of people were expecting home sales in the Toronto were expecting a big jump. However, housing market has been on a steady decline for a few month now. Home sales were down 16% compared to last year but a lot of more detailed stats paint an even scarier picture.
    Active listings, new listings, homes taking longer to sell, months of inventory was up and a lot more stats that show how bad the real estate market in the Toronto really is. See all stats here from Halton to Durham for the month of June here.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NNeZIQVtA0

    8:35.

  19. ‘Royal Palm’s inventory has surpassed 6,300. That’s more than 50% higher than a year ago as 1,930 new listings were added in May. A similar trend is pumping up Naples Area Board of Realtors, which has 67.1% more available than 12 months earlier, with 1,201 fresh additions in May. That’s also happening at the same time as another continuing shift. ‘There were more price decreases than new listings in May’

    Wa happened to my shortage Jeff?

    ‘Price reductions are good for our market. It tells us that sellers are finally realizing the market today won’t support aspirational pricing’

    Acceptance <- Jeff you are here.

  20. ‘The Tri-City Herald tallied more than 1,030 apartment units under construction in 2023. Today, many of those have started to welcome rent-paying tenants. But the market is considerably softer than it was a year ago…The Tri-Cities vacancy rate topped 7.75% at the start of the year, more than double the 3.7% rate of 2020. The average market rent stood at $1,370 per month. That’s up 1.7%, but still well below 13% growth recorded in 2021. The 10-year average is 4.4%. The cool-off means it takes longer to fill new properties. It once took six to eight months to fully lease a new complex. Now, takes a year to 18 months’

    They made loans on apartment performa income statements that were built on rents increasing year after year. Sometimes 5% or more. If rents flatten, they are toast. That’s one reason why we see new fully occupied luxury apartments given back to the lender.

    1. performa income statements
      Ah yes,
      Yes boss, what? You didn’t like my initial analysis? Income too low? What would you like the new income to be? OK Boss, it’s done. Those are the numbers you wanted right?

      Like old times!

  21. ‘Miami-based Crescent Heights, owner of the 754-unit Nema San Francisco apartment building, agreed to pay its lenders $10.5M as part of a loan modification to retain control of the 37-story property, according to the San Francisco Business Times. A spokesperson for Crescent Heights confirmed to Bisnow that the parties arranged the loan modification. Last August, the $384M CMBS loan backed by Nema entered special servicing as rising interest rates placed upward pressure on the property’s operating expenses, resulting in a default…Crescent Heights purchased the property in 2006 as a vacant office building. Originally, the firm planned to build a residential condominium project with about 720 units, but the subprime mortgage crisis forced the company to shift gears and develop rentals in 2012 instead. The asset lost more than half of its value from October 2018 to 2023, declining from about $544M to roughly $280M’

    Probably everybody involved took a mighty a$$ pounding here, and they are still knife catchers.

  22. How did you lose yer igloo Andy?

    The June data continued a trend we’ve been watching where buyers appear hesitant to transact in volumes we consider typical for this time of year, while sellers remain keen to bring their properties to market…This dynamic is bringing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. This trend is providing buyers more selection to choose from and driving all market segments toward balanced conditions.

  23. ‘The jobs report, which also showed that youth unemployment reached almost a decade high barring the pandemic years…‘Lowering interest rates is the only way to soften the blow from upcoming mortgage renewals and keep any hope of a soft landing alive’

    The renewals are only like 60% of outstanding loans in the next year Royce. This is when yer rate dating really performs!

  24. ‘An analysis of price trends by quarter shows a gradual slowdown in the decline since the peak observed in the third quarter of 2023. This trend could herald a stabilisation of the market in the months ahead,’ atHome said. The atHome data is provisional as it refers to asking prices. The national housing observatory, which records actual transaction prices, said last week that Luxembourg’s real estate prices were down by almost 11% in the first quarter of 2024′

    The UHS listing price crater is half of sales price crater. They are chasing the market down in Luxembourg.

  25. ‘TradeMe currently has 65 residential properties listed as mortgagee sales, which is 35 percent up on the same time last year. In Wellington, Bayleys regional general manager Grant Henderson said his team would usually appraise up to three properties a year for banks considering mortgagee sales. But lately, staff were hitting that number each month’

    It’s from a low base Grant.

    ‘‘We’ve got a broad range, from developers who’ve found themselves in a sticky situation due to funding, we’ve found mums and dads that’ve got themselves just in the wrong situation, but also investors,’ he said. ‘People have probably let it all go too long, and there’s a lot of denial around the situation they’re in’

    So pretty much every type of loanowner. We all know what comes after denial. They’ll be spray painting epithets on the walls and hauling off the dishwashers soon.

    1. Calif.’s second-biggest county sees home prices hit $1M for first time
      Pristine coastline, high prices and lots of people
      By Farley Elliott, SoCal Bureau Chief
      July 8, 2024
      In an aerial view, luxury homes line the coast of La Jolla on April 27, 2024, in San Diego, Calif.
      Kevin Carter/Getty Images

      San Diego is known for many things, from its early California history to its seemingly endless coastline. The state’s southernmost county is a famed getaway for tourists and statewide locals alike, the kind of always temperate destination that feels like a special kind of West Coast paradise. But up until relatively recently, all of that splendor has come with a secret: San Diego County remained somewhat affordable for average homeowners — at least by California standards.

      Now, not so much.

      In May, San Diego County home prices officially crossed a new threshold, with the median cost of a resold single-family home going for just north of $1 million, per the San Diego Union-Tribune. The formal price — a $1,001,500 average, according to CoreLogic — is up more than 9% from last year, representing the largest such spike of any of the 10 largest metro populations in America.

      To dive one layer deeper into the data: CoreLogic’s most recent numbers, which are the most recent prices available, are from May. The million-dollar-plus number is also specifically for existing single-family home sales, meaning that new-build homes and condos are not counted here, though that combined number is similarly staggering. The average overall home price (inclusive of all types of dwellings) is $898,000. Those rising numbers were “inevitable,” a San Diego real estate analyst told the Union-Tribune, as California’s housing and affordability crises continue to worsen.

      More broadly, San Diego joins Orange County as the only two Southern California counties with median single-family home prices north of $1 million. Other areas, like Riverside and San Bernardino counties in the broad Inland Empire, have seen a steep rise in home costs as coastal Californians head inland in search of a better deal, but those areas remain well below the $1 million threshold.

      Of course, compared with the Bay Area, San Diego may still seem affordable. As of last month, two different Bay Area counties — San Mateo and Santa Clara — claimed median home prices of at least $2 million. Other areas like Bakersfield and Tahoe continue to battle (occasionally in court) over affordable housing as well.
      …
      https://www.sfgate.com/la/article/san-diego-million-dollar-median-home-price-19557002.php

    2. Can home prices really stay flat for very long?

      Or would a flattening of prices lead to investors dumping their housing market HODLings in favor of other assets likely to produce a nonflat return?

      And wouldn’t cashing out potentially make flat price appreciation turn negative?

      Still trying to understand how real estate always goes up after all these years of pondering the question…

      1. Newsweek
        U.S.
        Housing Market
        Mortgage rates
        Housing Market to Take Turn for Buyers
        Published Jul 08, 2024 at 3:09 PM EDT
        Updated Jul 08, 2024 at 3:22 PM EDT
        By Omar Mohammed
        Reporter, Economy & Finance

        Home prices in the U.S. are set to stay flat over the coming months amid elevated mortgage rates, a real estate expert said, a development that could make it better for buyers looking to acquire homes in a market that has struggled with expensive homes for years.

        During the pandemic, lower mortgage rates sparked a rush in homebuying that escalated demand for properties that in turn contributed to a jump in prices. But soaring inflation forced the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates which pushed up borrowing costs for home loans. A jump in mortgage rates ensued which, along with high prices, has made buying a home unaffordable for many Americans.

        This dynamic has hurt demand for homes even as listings have increased. If mortgage rates continue to stay high, it could lead to prices decelerating which may help give some relief to prospective buyers.

        “It probably means that we’re going to see [home] prices flat now,” Ken H. Johnson, a real estate economist at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business, told Newsweek.
        …
        https://www.newsweek.com/www-newsweek-com-housing-market-take-turn-buyers-1922410

    3. Newsweek
      U.S.
      California City Sees Flood of Homeowners Trying to Sell Houses
      Published Jul 08, 2024 at 6:32 PM EDT
      Updated Jul 08, 2024 at 8:12 PM EDT
      By Omar Mohammed
      Reporter, Economy & Finance

      San Jose, California, saw new listings rise nearly 50 percent in June compared to a year ago, a signal that property owners in the city are increasingly looking to sell their homes in one of the more expensive housing markets in the country.

      Along with a high number of listings, the city saw pending sales—a forward-looking indicator of home purchases—jump 18 percent last month from a year ago, according to data from Redfin.

      Other cities that experienced a jump in listings included Seattle at nearly 29 percent, Miami at 25 percent, and Boston at 24 percent, while Montgomery County in Pennsylvania saw a 22 percent increase.
      …
      https://www.newsweek.com/www-newsweek-com-california-city-sees-flood-homeowners-trying-sell-houses-1922505

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