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An Extreme Hot Streak Of Price Growth That Could Not Be Maintained

A report from the Providence Journal. “The price of a single-family home in Rhode Island has nearly doubled since 2019. In June, the median price for a single-family home hit $494,000. Five years ago, in the pre-pandemic days of 2019, the median price was $250,000. ‘It’s nuts, it’s crazy, it’s nuts,’ said Redfin real estate agent Bryan Quinlan. Quinlan recently listed a single-family house in Coventry for $510,000 – a price that left him reeling. ‘It’s just a normal house,’ he said. ‘Three bed, one bath. A ranch. It’s not even on the water. I don’t want to say it’s absurd, but prices have gone a little absurd,’ he continued. ‘There’s no other way to put it, no other way to talk. This is the new normal.'”

KSL News Radio. “The average price of a house in Utah is $522,732 — up 2.1% over the past year. With a down payment of 20%, prepare to drop more than $100,000 for that house to start the buying agreement. But can you actually purchase a home with no money down? Co-owner of The Stern Team, Russell Faucette, spoke with Dave & Dujanovic about how to buy a home with little or no money down. He added the most popular no-money-down program in the state is Utah Housing Corporation, which is an FHA loan. ‘The other three and a half [percent] is a Utah Housing product where they actually give you a second mortgage,’ said Faucette. ‘All you’re doing is coming in with your closing cost, and if you can negotiate that with the seller, then you don’t have any money out of pocket, essentially.’ The buyer is essentially taking out a second loan for $3,500, which is attached to the house.”

“Because first-time home buyers don’t typically have the equity to use from their former house, they typically pursue no-money-down loans, such as FHA, Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. ‘It’s a way for them to get in without having to save a ton of money; especially with inflation right now, more and more people are living paycheck to paycheck,’ Faucette said.”

Vail Daily in Colorado. “For serious sellers, increased inventory and more options for buyers underscores the importance of pricing your property to the market. Eagle County’s mid- to downvalley markets, including Edwards, Eagle, Eagle Ranch and Gypsum are cases in point about the ever-changing dynamics of our different markets. Rick Messmer, managing broker for Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Colorado Properties’ Eagle Ranch office, says that the market is continuing to improve for buyers, with more options and more competitive pricing, including 44 new listings and 15 price reductions in just one week earlier this month. ‘For the past several years, buyers have been struggling to find even one property that met a few of their criteria, which put many in a holding pattern. Now, multiple properties check many of their boxes which is causing a reverse holding pattern — too many options to choose from,’ Messmer said.”

“‘If the property you are going to bring to market is unique, and in a desirable location for the buyer pool, you may still be able to set the market and be the highest-priced home ever sold in your neighborhood,’ Messmer said. ‘However, if your property is not that property, you must price it to today’s market conditions. With the right marketing and exposure, you can have buyers competing and pushing your price up — but only if the market — and buyers — feel you are underpriced. Otherwise, your property will likely sit and be forced into a price reduction.'”

The Herald Tribune in Florida. “The Sarasota-Manatee real estate market is leveling out, per a new report from the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee The data reflects a general slowdown in demand that’s taken hold of the market following a post-pandemic boom. Simply put, prices are dipping as supply is rising. In the broader North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metropolitan area, the median sale price at large dropped 3.7% to $504,900 compared to $524,450 in June of 2023. Active listings in the area shot up 61% — 5,719 from 3,545 — in the same timeframe. As for what the numbers mean for those looking for a new home or listing an old one, the report advises that buyers may find themselves with more opportunities, while sellers may need to lower their expectations to stay competitive. The new data, said Realtor Association President Tony Barrett, reflects the market’s regular flux, and he advised buyers and sellers to remain flexible. ‘This cooling trend highlights the importance of staying adaptable,’ Barrett said.”

WINK News in Florida. “A quiet Cape Coral neighborhood faces a lot of noise thanks to 3613 SW 12th Ave, 1137 SW 37th St, and 1149 SW 37th St, all of which are vacation rental homes. The biggest complaint from Southwest Cape neighbors is the noise. Neighbors told WINK News Reporter Olivia Jean that groups of up to 30 people come to Cape Coral and throw massive parties in quiet residential neighborhoods. ‘If there were just kids playing and just a family group, that would be totally fine. But it’s the loud music. And it’s the loud talking, like, we can hear them inside of our home,’ said Macy Magas. And when these neighbors say something to the loud vacationers…’They yell right back at us. They just start screaming without even any context or anything. They’re just they get so mad at the fact that we’re asking not a hard thing,’ Magas said.”

KFMB in California. “We are one year into a San Diego city ordinance that aimed to crack down on short-term vacation rentals like Airbnb’s. Some say requiring a $1,000 Short Term Rental Occupancy license has helped, but others say there are loopholes. The vast majority are compliant mom and pops. ‘We do this for the money but also for the joy of hosting travelers, please, please don’t shut us down,’ another woman said at the meeting.”

KTVU in California. “Gov. Gavin Newsom’s executive order is finding support in the South Bay. On Thursday, Newsom issued an executive order that allows agencies to clear encampments on state property. The move comes a month after a Supreme Court ruling that allows cities more authority to prohibit people from living on the streets. Housing and homeless advocates in San Jose say they’re disappointed by Newsom’s order. ‘I believe he’s doing it because his affordable housing policies in California have failed. He’s failed to provide enough affordable housing. He’s failed to take on the real estate profiteers who continue to raise rents,’ said Sandy Perry, of South Bay Community Land Trust.”

The Hyde Park Herald in Illinois. “Nearly one year after a temporary shelter for migrants opened in East Hyde Park amid last summer’s influx of new arrivals, Ald. Desmon Yancy (5th) hosted a virtual community meeting Thursday night to discuss area residents’ concerns about noise, cleanliness and public safety. Representatives from the Mayor’s Office, the city’s Department of Family and Support Services (DFSS) and the Chicago Police Department (CPD), attended and gave brief presentations about shelter services and steps they are taking to address those concerns. In response to neighborhood residents’ concerns about public urination and defecation, Danny Castañeda, the deputy commissioner for new arrivals at DFSS said that every shelter resident signs a community guidelines agreement prohibiting such behaviors. Noting that these acts are violations that can result in people being removed from the shelter system, he added that ‘it’s still our task and responsibility to ensure that they understand those social norms.’ Castañeda said the city has partnered with local community organizations like the Illinois Venezuelan Alliance to educate asylum seekers about those norms in culturally relevant ways.”

“Beatriz Ponce de León, Chicago’s first-ever deputy mayor for immigrant, migrant and refugee rights, said the city is reevaluating shelters every six months to see if there is still a need to keep operating it. Neighbors also complained about shelter residents driving without licenses or proper registration, to which Ponce de León said the CPD makes arrests almost daily for such offenses. She also said the city is working with the Secretary of State to educate people about the requirements for purchasing and operating a motor vehicle and ensure that they can get licenses.”

From KTNV. “A recent report shows a serious uptick in notices of home default. Previously, I highlighted the delinquent hotspots of 2022 and now, I’m digging deeper to see if there has been any improvement. Instead, I found a 41% increase in 2024, revealing foreclosures are increasing across the valley. Yolanda Perkins’ story is becoming all too common across southern Nevada. ‘The cost of living is so high, I live from paycheck to paycheck and I can barely make it,’ Perkins told me. I asked her if she. is having to readjust her budgeting to afford the roof over her head. ‘Yes and I work two jobs, it’s really hard,’ she said. ‘I make over 5,000 a month and I can not make it.'”

“Could another real estate bubble like what we saw in 2008 be looming? What can you do if you’re struggling with your mortgage? I reached out to loan officer Bryan Feldman to find out. ‘Ask about a forbearance or a mortgage modification,’ he told me. ‘Those might be the two things that are the most helpful initially if they want to keep the home to try to do that.’ While that may be a solution, Yolanda hopes the cost of living in Las Vegas becomes more affordable. ‘You go to a grocery store and in the past, you spend 30 dollars and now it’s over a hundred. And without my second job, I don’t know I would be done and end up on our streets,’ Perkins said.”

Blog TO in Canada. “It is decidedly an exceptionally bad time to try and sell or build condos in the GTA, as purchases of the housing type have fallen to record lows, dropping in June to 70 per cent below the 20-year average. With such little activity, some ongoing projects are going into receivership as pre-construction sales struggle to cover building costs. Others are being completely put on hold until the market improves — progressively more of them, too. As Urbanation and CIBC explain in a report about the sector this week, ‘the GTA condo market is in a state of economic lockdown. The math doesn’t make economic sense from both the demand side (investors) and the supply side (developers), leaving the market at a standstill.'”

“‘Prices are too high for investors to buy given current resale prices, rents, and interest rates, while developers can’t lower prices due to high construction costs. As a result, new condo sales — the primary driver of new home construction in Canada’s largest market — have dove off a cliff to their lowest level since the late 1990s.'”

From Domain News. “House hunters on a iron-fisted budget will find a collection of lifestyle-driven suburbs where property prices have slid backwards by up to 24 per cent. It could be a sign of what is to come for patient buyers across a broader range of locations, after an ‘extreme’ hot streak of price growth around the nation that could not be maintained. From a retail mecca in Melbourne’s east to a pretty Victorian coastal hamlet with a lighthouse and spots on the glittering Gold Coast, buyers will be relieved to find properties have declined by as much as 24.4 per cent compared to this time last year, June quarterly data shows. Chadstone in Melbourne, which tops the list, is the home of Chadstone The Fashion Capital, the biggest shopping centre in Australia.”

“In Chadstone, units prices have dropped 24.4 per cent to land at $550,000, according to the Domain House Price Report for June 2024. Domain’s list is a welcome index the postcodes where the affordability door has been not just opened, but kicked down. These are markets where aggressive spurts of house price growth have lost steam. Biggera Waters – a suburb on the Gold Coast, about an hour north of the high-value capital – should be on buyers’ GPS. There, houses have decreased by 24.4 per cent, and the median is now $630,000. Number three is Clayton South, in Melbourne. Properties here are the cheapest of the top ten – just $460,000 for a unit, after a fall of 23.3 per cent.”

“Domain’s chief of economics and research Dr Nicola Powell says the locations on the list previously experienced unsustainable growth. On the Gold Coast, unit prices dropped from their record high last quarter, Dr Powell says. ‘It is a sign of what could unravel across other suburbs also, as we are starting to see weakness in some areas. It is premium locations that are declining,’ Dr Powell says.”

The Globe and Mail. “The political will needed to design and implement remedies that match the gravity of the problems does not exist in China, because this Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee is the stillborn child of a contradiction. The reform era, launched by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, gave China economic liberalization without political reform; in 2008, the CCP called a halt to that project because it threatened its monopoly on political power. China’s economy can only be restored to health by resuming its full liberalization – and that requires systemic political change.”

“The great majority of China’s political elite understand that. But President Xi Jinping is determined to defend the present system, and he currently has sufficient grip on the levers of hard power – the country’s military and security apparatus – to block change. Consequently, achievement of the worthy goals enunciated by the Resolution – shifting from rapid growth to high-quality growth, reducing pollution and carbon emissions, and strengthening social security – will be stymied by a failure to tackle the deepest problems generated by the contradiction between economic change and political stasis.”

“The most spectacular of these is the collapse of the property market. It has undermined household savings, more than 75 per cent of which has been invested in property; it has undermined economic growth, 30 per cent of which was driven by property development, until the collapse; and it has undermined local government revenues, 40 per cent of which previously came from the sale of land to developers.”

“In China, local governments matter hugely: they raise more than half of total government revenues and account for more than 85 per cent of total government expenditure. But in its latest report on the Chinese economy, the International Monetary Fund warned that ‘fundamental demand for new housing is expected to decline by almost 50 per cent over the next 10 years… in some regions, the adjustment could be much sharper.’ To put it bluntly: there is no prospect of reviving land sales as a source of local government revenue in the foreseeable future.”

“Central government cannot bail out local government because the problem is too big. But the regime cannot just inflate the problem away, because that would undermine the currency. Local governments are effectively using Ponzi schemes to keep themselves afloat. When those schemes run out of road, as sooner or later they must, there will be dire consequences for services, employment, savings and the financial system. Outrage and unrest will follow, and threaten social stability. To save what they can of their own wealth and power, China’s elite and 600-million-strong property-owning class will demand an end to the political system that has caused this national disaster, and its replacement by one that gives them freedom of expression, rule of law and a right to vote.”

“In the meantime, last week’s meeting of the Central Committee will go down in history as one more futile gesture in denying reality and staving off the fundamental change that’s needed.”

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This Post Has 67 Comments

  1. Because first-time home buyers don’t typically have the equity to use from their former house, they typically pursue no-money-down loans, such as FHA, Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. ‘It’s a way for them to get in without having to save a ton of money; especially with inflation right now, more and more people are living paycheck to paycheck’

    ‘Yolanda Perkins’ story is becoming all too common across southern Nevada. ‘The cost of living is so high, I live from paycheck to paycheck and I can barely make it’

    Yer a perfect candidate for a guberment backed subprime loan Yolanda!

    1. So we should qualify folks who are living paycheck to paycheck with no money saved for a half a million dollar home? Yeah,….this is gonna end real well.

    2. “Yes and I work two jobs, it’s really hard,’ she said. ‘I make over 5,000 a month and I can not make it.’”

      Sell the house now Yolanda and you might have a chance. Otherwise you are toast.

  2. ‘In response to neighborhood residents’ concerns about public urination and defecation…‘it’s still our task and responsibility to ensure that they understand those social norms’

    Social norms are racist Danny.

    ‘Neighbors also complained about shelter residents driving without licenses or proper registration, to which Ponce de León said the CPD makes arrests almost daily for such offenses’

    Where do they get the money for cars Beatriz?

    1. “public urination and defecation”

      Democrat Party.

      Sounds like a you get what you voted for kind of problem.

    2. Where do they get the money for cars Beatriz?

      there are charities that will provide beaters to invaders.

      A story I shared a few months ago: A Honduran family was driving from North Carolina to Phoenix in a 20 year old car. They wrecked it in Tennessee (no driver’s license) and one of the children was unbuckled and died in the crash. There were no charges and as soon as they were out of the hospital a local charity replaced their wrecked car with another beater, so they could continue their unlicensed journey, endangering others on the road.

  4. “ I reached out to loan officer Bryan Feldman to find out. ‘Ask about a forbearance or a mortgage modification,’ he told me. ‘Those might be the two things that are the most helpful initially if they want to keep the home to try to do that.”

    “If they want to keep the home” is the important part of that sentence. Once these schmucks realize the hoped for equity is gone no one is going to want to hold on to the anchor that is about to destroy them. You won’t be able to beg them to keep the house.

  5. “Because first-time home buyers don’t typically have the equity to use from their former house, they typically pursue no-money-down loans, such as FHA, Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. ‘It’s a way for them to get in without having to save a ton of money; especially with inflation right now, more and more people are living paycheck to paycheck,’ Faucette said.”

    No subprime lending this time, right?

  6. Times of San Diego
    Higher Vacancies, Lower Rates Seen in Annual Survey of Regional Rental Market
    Keller Brown by Keller Brown
    1 day ago
    A for rent sign.
    Courtesy of Southern California Rental Housing Association

    The Southern California Rental Housing Association announced Thursday that its annual Vacancy and Rental Rate Survey found increased availability and a decrease in rents compared to last year.

    “The 2024 annual Survey indicates what industry members have been experiencing; higher vacancies and lower asking rents,” said Alan Pentico, executive director of the SCRHA, in a statement. “While we still face a housing shortage in California, this change in the local market is good news for renters.”

    The vacancy rate went up to 6.36% in spring 2024, up from 3.9% from last spring. The city of San Diego experienced a rise in vacancy rates within the region to 4.22% compared to 2.64% last year.

    The increase in vacancies can be linked to new properties on the market and higher rates in older properties.

    Throughout San Diego County, the average rent decreased to $2,170, compared to $2,338 from 2023, a drop slightly over 7%. In the City of San Diego, the average rent fell from $2,266 last spring to $2,189 this spring, a decline over 3%.

    The data was collected through surveys mailed to approximately 6,000 San Diego County rental property owners and managers in March 2024, with responses representing about 11,400 units. Participants provided information on rates, number of bedrooms, square footage, property age, location, and occupancy status.
    …
    https://timesofsandiego.com/business/2024/07/25/substantial-changes-shown-in-san-diego-regional-rental-market/#google_vignette

  8. ‘If there were just kids playing and just a family group, that would be totally fine. But it’s the loud music. And it’s the loud talking, like, we can hear them inside of our home,’ said Macy Magas.

    Those Amish are a boisterous lot when they get together to party.

  9. ‘We do this for the money but also for the joy of hosting travelers, please, please don’t shut us down,’ another woman said at the meeting.”

    You’re running unregulated hotels sans front desk clerks in residential neighborhoods. The sooner all STRs are banned along with the pestilence they bring into formerly peaceful neighborhoods, the better. Get a real job, speculator scum.

  10. To save what they can of their own wealth and power, China’s elite and 600-million-strong property-owning class will demand an end to the political system that has caused this national disaster

    Like how they sent Xi and his cronies packing during the draconian lockdowns?

  16. A reader sent these in:

    2007 Fed cuts rates, buys $1.1 trillion MBS
    2019 Fed cuts rates, buys $1.3 trillion MBS
    2024 Fed cuts rates???, buys trillions MBS??

    https://x.com/Econimica/status/1816884465442193586

    Im here in Forysth county Cumming GA 100% bust inbound for a small county over 1,000 listings not including massive amounts of new construction no one wants. The California rush of Tech workers is over.

    https://x.com/sebastianaor/status/1816488263072219222

    *FORD SHARES SINK 18% IN BIGGEST ONE-DAY DROP SINCE 2008

    Rating below junk is needed

    https://x.com/AlessioUrban/status/1816564777537216526

    I’m starting to think all this “economic growth” is really just a debt bomb:

    https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1816478469707993570

    Durable Goods New Orders have never been this low without the US already being in recession. 👇🏼

    https://x.com/MauiBoyMacro/status/1816491855414173811

    The gap between Homebuilder Confidence and Homebuyer Confidence has never been greater. 👇🏼

    Which one do you believe?

    https://x.com/MauiBoyMacro/status/1816126440297095535

    FedEx to cut daytime domestic flight activity by 60% resulting in the likely termination of 500+ pilots

    https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1816897838154154353

    1. I’m starting to think all this “economic growth” is really just a debt bomb:

      The gooberment has been on a hiring spree, both for employees and contractors. Little of what they do creates any value, but now they have money to spend. Viva la inflación!

    1. I suspect that her public appearances will be carefully curated, with her mike time carefully rationed, leaving most of the actual speech giving to others.

      My understanding is that there won’t be any debates, as they want to eliminate any chance for her to stick her foot in her mouth Much like F JB did, she will be campaigning from her basement.

      As we are already seeing, the hype machine is already in double overdrive, singing her praises while gaslighting all her mistakes and lack of accomplishment.

  19. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rose to power in 2015 — and rescued the Liberal Party from irrelevance — on promises to bring “real change” and infuse Canadian politics with “sunny ways.”

    Nearly nine years later, the forecast for the progressive icon is cloudy. His party, which has been slumping in the polls for more than a year, now trails the Conservatives by as many as 20 points and is vulnerable not only in key battlegrounds but also in traditional strongholds.

    Trudeau has won three federal elections. He has been in power for nine years — and accumulated nine years’ worth of miscalculations and other baggage: Ethics scandals, photos of him as a younger man in blackface, controversies over trips abroad and vacations at home, struggles to balance growing Canada’s economy with climate action. It’s been more than a century since a Canadian prime minister won four elections in a row.

    Trudeau has tried to reverse his slide. Last summer, he overhauled his cabinet in an effort to inject “new energy” into the government. He brought a marketer with a self-described focus on “understanding Millennials and Generation Z” to his team.

    He walked back part of the carbon tax, one of his signature policies, in what analysts said was a bid to shore up support in Atlantic Canada — angering not just his own environment minister, but also officials elsewhere who wanted carve outs of their own.

    He spent weeks on a cross-country tour to preview a budget aimed at “generational fairness,” breaking with a tradition of keeping budget details secret until the document is introduced in Parliament.

    None of it has helped.

    “I think they’re at a stage where it really doesn’t matter what they do or what they say,” said pollster Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute. “I hate to use this phrase, but it’s like they ‘jumped the shark.’ Nobody is listening.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/from-sunny-ways-to-cloudy-days-canadians-have-tired-of-justin-trudeau/ar-BB1qFyJl

    1. And it’s only taken Canucks 9 years to send him packing. For a while there I thought Trudeau would sink Canaduh into the ocean like a modern day Atlantis before being voted out.

    1. My boss’s dad lives in Canaduh and has been having some serious health issues. My boss has been traveling there and he despises the sluggish and rationing Canadian healthcare system.

      It’s easy the reduce healthcare’s share of GDP when you severely ration it.

      1. A Wasaga Beach woman has accused people of pooping at her local beaches.

        TikTok user @itsnattylxnn2.0 has been posting videos claiming people are coming to the beach at Wasaga Beach Provincial Park, setting up tents and doing their dirty business in the sand.

        “I am going to be making a series, I will be going down to the main end to show everyone the thousands of tents that are still up,” reads her most viral video’s caption , which was widely shared on social media.

        “No tourist respects the no tent rule, also they still dig holes under tents to use the washroom and I will be documenting it.”

        https://www.msn.com/en-ca/travel/news/ontario-woman-claims-visitors-defecating-in-sand-at-wasaga-beach/ar-BB1qi9EY

        The stench of social media posts on TikTok and Facebook has become too much to ignore for the mayor of a popular beach town, who has released a lengthy statement denouncing talk of people pooping in the sand “that lack evidence and promote misinformation.”

        Town of Wasaga Beach Mayor Brian Smith writes that the municipality has received “no evidence – from residents, visitors or the Ontario government – to verify that any undesirable, unsanitary behaviour has occurred on the beach areas that make up Wasaga Beach Provincial Park.”

        “If any evidence comes to light,” Smith stresses, “I assure you that we will be quick to act.”

        In response to Global News inquiring if public defecation or urination on the sand has ever been an issue on Wasaga Beach’s beaches since 2020, a spokesperson with the town said “the answer is no.”

        Smith’s statement also notes that the Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks operates, patrols and manages the beach areas within Wasaga Beach Provincial Park in conjunction with Ontario Parks.

        One TikTok user who requested to go by her social media name, Natty Lynn, posted a video July 9 where she claimed this has been an ongoing issue for years and that people are setting up small tents and digging holes to use as washrooms. In that video, which has more than 31,000 likes, she says she doesn’t let her kids dig in the sand on Beach 1.

        “The mayor can’t deny all of us having experiences,” she said in an email.

        “If you go through my social media comments, you will see people speaking about this happening at almost every beach across Ontario, across Canada. This is not a new issue.”

        https://www.msn.com/en-ca/travel/news/poop-on-the-beach-ontario-mayor-slams-social-media-misinformation/ar-BB1qyBZK

  21. The number of multifamily developments completed in June increased 40.2% from a year earlier, confirming the supply wave multifamily owners and developers have been dreading.

    There were 656,000 housing developments with five or more units delivered in June, a 26.2% month-over-month increase, Multifamily Dive reported, citing U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development data.

    While insiders are hopeful the oversupply phenomenon will be relatively short-lived and demand will regain its position over supply, multifamily starts in June ticked up month-over-month.

    Developers started 360,000 apartment projects in June, a 23.4% decrease from a year earlier, but a 22% increase from May 2024, Multifamily Dive reported. Apartment permits also saw a monthly jump with 460,000 pulled, a 19.2% increase from May and a 6.5% decrease from the previous year.

    The supply wave has brought 50-year high deliveries to certain markets, like 40,000 units hitting the market in Dallas-Fort Worth over the past year. The increased competition is slowing rent growth, especially in booming Sun Belt markets.

    Many multifamily developers and landlords hope dropping construction starts due to increased interest rates, construction costs and cost of capital will eventually push rent growth up again.

    But some developers are finding land sellers getting more flexible in their terms. That, combined with reduced labor costs, offers opportunities for long-term development despite the high deliveries, Multifamily Dive reported. Charleston, South Carolina-based Woodfield Development launched 10 projects last year and is on track for just as many this year, founding partner Greg Bonifield told the outlet.

    Movement on pricing has “finally” started, he said, and subcontractors are offering pricing that makes deals easier.

    https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/multifamily/multifamily-completions-jump-solidifying-supply-as-a-near-term-threat-125175

  22. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., a leading global provider of technology and data, reports the following “first look” at June 2024 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market.

    Data as of June 30, 2024

    Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 3.49%

    Month-over-month change: 14.54%

    Year-over-year change: 11.70%

    Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 1,873,000

    Month-over-month change: 239,000

    Year-over-year change: 223,000

    Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,058,000

    Month-over-month change: 233,000

    Year-over-year change: 184,000

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ice-first-look-mortgage-performance-130000331.html

  23. Selina billed itself as a pioneer in the “digital nomad” hospitality sector. But it can no longer avoid insolvency. Its woes can be partly traced back to its ill-fated SPAC merger in October 2022.

    Selina Hospitality, a hotel and experiences brand focused on youth travelers, said Monday it “no longer has any reasonable prospects of avoiding an insolvency.”

    The news, released in a regulatory filing, follows a severe liquidity crisis for the once-promising hotel, hostel, and co-working space operator.

    Selina’s board said administrators will explore a potential sale of some or all of the group’s operating subsidiaries and assets, contingent on securing the necessary funding.

    The board effectively ceded control of the company’s affairs, business, and property to the administrators at FTI Consulting.

    While the parent company is insolvent, the day-to-day operations of its subsidiaries remain under the control of their respective directors and management teams.

    This development represents a significant fall from grace for Selina, which had positioned itself as a pioneer in the “digital nomad” hospitality sector, blending hotel accommodations with co-working spaces in trendy locations worldwide. It had about 29,000 “bedspaces” at its hostels and hotels worldwide as of earlier this year.

    In June 2023, Selina said it had made a deal for a strategic investment of up to $50 million led by an affiliate of Global University Systems (G.U.S). G.U.S. is a profitable private company, generating about $900 million a year.

    The final straw was when the company couldn’t come up with about a half-million dollar interest payment to a unit of the Inter-American Development Bank.

    Selina went public in a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, deal in October 2022. Its merger with a blank check company enabled it to go public, but it failed to deliver enough capital to help Selina fund its future operations.

    “When stock market historians look back on the past few years and the whole SPAC craze, they definitely have to include Selina in the biggest failure list,” said Alan Woinski, founder and editor of Skift’s Daily Lodging Report.

    https://skift.com/2024/07/22/selina-collapses-in-liquidity-crisis-seeks-buyers/

  24. The “hidden costs” of homeownership, including rising property taxes and homeowners insurance, are the biggest risk factors for rising mortgage delinquencies in the present market, according to a new survey.

    The Auction.com survey of leaders in the default servicing space found that respondents assigned 37% out of a hypothetical 100 risk factor points to hidden costs, beating out any other factor.

    Rising consumer debt delinquencies were not far behind with 32%, followed by rising unemployment at 15%, commercial mortgage defaults at 10%, and falling home prices at 6%.

    The finding comes as insurance costs for homeowners skyrocket in many parts of the country. Nationally, they jumped 33.8% from 2018 through 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

    Some states have seen even sharper increases, with insurance rates jumping 60% in Texas over the five-year period. Colorado, Arizona, and Utah also saw increases of more than 50% over that period.

    “A major reason is climate risk, and that insurers have had broad losses from severe climate events over the past few years from hurricanes and severe storms,” says Benjamin Collier, an associate professor of risk management and insurance at Temple University in Philadelphia. “If you look at places where insurers have been paying out more claims than taking in premiums over the last couple years, it’s half the states.”

    Collier adds that inflation in construction costs has been another factor driving insurance premiums higher, by raising the cost for insurers to repair or replace a home. But he predicts that in the near term, higher insurance costs would have the biggest impact on mortgage delinquencies in areas that have suffered increased storms, floods, or wildfires in recent years.

    “My expectation is that these challenges would be greatest in higher-risk areas, because those higher-risk areas are where we’re seeing insurance prices climb the fastest,” says Collier. “I also think that this problem might be greater for lower-income households in those areas, who are often living and working much closer to the edge of their available budget.”

    Meanwhile, soaring home values have also resulted in rising property tax burdens in some areas. The average tax on single-family homes in the U.S. rose 4.1% last year, to $4,062, following a 3% increase in 2022, according to ATTOM Data Solutions.

    https://nypost.com/2024/07/23/real-estate/rising-cost-of-insurance-and-property-tax-is-the-top-risk-for-mortgage-delinquencies-survey/

  26. Texas cities landed in recent reports from real estate company Redfin, which claim median prices dropped and that the housing markets have grown stale as listings linger.

    Redfin’s Wednesday report said that 64.7% of home listings nationally sat unsold for more than 30 days. This is a 5.1 percentage point increase from June 2023 — the largest year-over-year increase since Redfin started tracking in 2012.

    Texas and Florida lead the US in how fast inventory is growing stale. The shares of stale listings in Texas cities have increased year over year and faster than the national average:

    Austin, up 5.2 percentage points
    Dallas, up 10.7 percentage points
    Fort Worth, up 8.1 percentage points
    Houston, up 4.6 percentage points
    San Antonio, up 5.7 percentage points

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/redfin-listings-in-texas-cities-turn-stale/ar-BB1qzlSl

  27. Reaction to California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s directive to state officials to dismantle thousands of homeless encampments across the state has drawn a mix of praise and criticism across the state.

    In San Diego, where a conference on finding solutions for homelessness in California was held on Thursday, the same day Newsom issued his executive order, participants praised the move.

    “People should not be able to live in public spaces or wherever they want. We’ve gotten to the point where we’re tolerating it, and it’s become normalized,” State Sen. Catherine Blakespear, D-San Diego, told CBS 8 San Diego.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/reaction-to-newsoms-homelessness-directive-runs-gamut-from-praise-to-criticism/ar-BB1qHbG3

  29. An estimated 8,300 people are living homeless in San Francisco. And despite a years-long effort to move people into temporary shelter or permanent housing, unsanctioned encampments remain a widespread and visible problem, often accompanied by garbage, theft and open drug use.

    Breed, a fellow Democrat, has also embraced the ruling. She said last week that, armed with the high court’s decision, she will spearhead a “very aggressive” effort to clear homeless encampments beginning in August. She said the effort could include criminal penalties for refusing to disperse.

    During a July 18 mayoral debate hosted by the local firefighters union, Breed acknowledged her decision to orchestrate sweeps was “not a popular” one but said it was a necessary step.

    “We have had to move from a compassionate city to a city of accountability,” she said. “And I have been leading the efforts to ensure we are addressing this issue differently than we have before.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/taking-cue-from-supreme-court-breed-to-launch-aggressive-homeless-sweeps-in-san-francisco/ar-BB1qIT1o

      1. This is the biggest political climb down in California that I can remember. They cooked this up, kicked it off with laws that progressively made the behavior worse. Funded it lavishly, let in hard drugs, let in the cartels. To buy the drugs you have to steal. You pass laws to let people steal. All the lawlessness of the situation spills out of control, testing the limits of what they can get away with, to the point everybody started to say enough.

        And then the court ruling drags out for years after that and all the hug-a-bum crap is now out the window. Get ready boys, we don’t care where you go but you can’t stay here! Eat yer crows Gavin and London.

        1. Eat yer crows Gavin and London.

          Funny, what running out of other people’s money can do.

          1. Big cuts, no new taxes: Gov. Newsom’s plan to fix California’s budget deficit
            Avatar photo by Alexei Koseff May 10, 2024

            Gov. Gavin Newsom addresses the media during a press conference unveiling his revised 2024-25 budget proposal at the Capitol Annex Swing Space in Sacramento on May 10, 2024. Photo by Fred Greaves for CalMatters

            In summary

            Gavin Newsom proposes a mix of spending cuts and using reserves to balance the state budget. He says that core services will be largely untouched, but some existing programs would be affected.

            Faced with ongoing weaknesses in state finances, Gov. Gavin Newsom put forward a revised budget plan today that he said aims to stabilize California in the longer term by addressing a “sizable deficit” estimated at $56 billion over the next two fiscal years.

            Looking beyond the typical annual budget cycle, Newsom proposed more than $30 billion in ongoing and one-time spending cuts, including to education and climate objectives that have been among the governor’s own priorities, though he promised that “core programs” providing social services to needy Californians would be mostly untouched.

            “These are propositions that I’ve long advanced, many of them. These are things that I’ve supported,” Newsom said during a press conference in Sacramento. “But you’ve got to do it. We have to be responsible. We have to be accountable. We have to balance the budget.”
            …
            https://calmatters.org/politics/2024/05/california-budget-deficit-newsom-may-proposal/

  30. Melbourne home hunters hoping to negotiate a bargain should head west, as new data shows homes that fail at auction are the most likely to linger on the market.

    PropTrack analysis revealed that two weeks after a home falls short under the hammer, virtually none had sold within the next fortnight in suburbs like Point Cook, Hoppers Crossing, Sunshine, and Dandenong North.

    But buyers looking in Melbourne’s east or the inner-western suburb of Kensington might need help finding languishing listings.

    In Kensington, research reveals that 69.2 per cent of homes passed in at auction sell two weeks after the event — the highest number in Melbourne.

    PropTrack senior economist Paul Ryan stated that broadly, the data shows buyers might face competition for homes that had struggled under the hammer in the east and southeast.

    Blackburn follows Kensington with 58.8 per cent of passed-in homes sold within the fortnight, Oakleigh East with 50 per cent, and Rowville with 45.5 per cent.

    “If you’re at an auction and you’re the top bidder, you have considerable power to negotiate,” said Mr. Ryan.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/15-melbourne-suburbs-where-buyers-could-score-a-postauction-bargain-proptrack/news-story/c84dd2972f0175a166b22fb24d5731ac

  31. The U.S. on Tuesday imposed sanctions on a group of Mexican accountants and firms allegedly linked to a timeshare fraud ring run by the Jalisco New Generation drug cartel.

    Three accountants were hit with sanctions, along with four Mexican real estate and accounting firms. In addition, Treasury and the FBI issued a notice to banks with a reminder to be vigilant in detecting and reporting timeshare fraud perpetrated by Mexico-based transnational criminal organizations.

    Time share fraud targeting Americans results in tens of millions of dollars in losses annually. In 2022, the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received over 600 complaints with losses of roughly $39.6 million from victims contacted by scammers regarding timeshares owned in Mexico.

    The new sanctions come after the U.S. in April 2023 sanctioned members or associates of the Jalisco New Generation drug cartel for timeshare fraud that allegedly targeted elderly Americans.

    “Cartel fraudsters run sophisticated teams of professionals who seem perfectly normal on paper or on the phone – but in reality, they’re money launderers expertly trained in scamming U.S. citizens,” said Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson. “Unsolicited calls and emails may seem legitimate, but they’re actually made by cartel-supported criminals. If something seems too good to be true, it probably is.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-hits-mexican-accountants-and-firms-with-sanctions-for-timeshare-scams-that-support-drug-cartel/ar-BB1q5YqY

  32. .>The price of a single-family home in Rhode Island has nearly doubled since 2019.

    Rhode Island has some of the highest property tax rates in the country.

  33. How did you lose yer shack Rick?

    For the past several years, buyers have been struggling to find even one property that met a few of their criteria, which put many in a holding pattern. Now, multiple properties check many of their boxes which is causing a reverse holding pattern — too many options to choose from.

  34. ‘If there were just kids playing and just a family group, that would be totally fine. But it’s the loud music. And it’s the loud talking, like, we can hear them inside of our home’ …And when these neighbors say something to the loud vacationers…’They yell right back at us. They just start screaming without even any context or anything. They’re just they get so mad at the fact that we’re asking not a hard thing’

    It’s still way cheaper than renting Macy. Does that happen regularly?

  35. Domain’s list is a welcome index the postcodes where the affordability door has been not just opened, but kicked down…On the Gold Coast, unit prices dropped from their record high last quarter, Dr Powell says. ‘It is a sign of what could unravel across other suburbs also, as we are starting to see weakness in some areas. It is premium locations that are declining’

    Expensive areas crater first and hard Nicola. We’ve seen this maybe a dozen times?

  36. ‘The great majority of China’s political elite understand that. But President Xi Jinping is determined to defend the present system, and he currently has sufficient grip on the levers of hard power – the country’s military and security apparatus – to block change. Consequently, achievement of the worthy goals enunciated by the Resolution…will be stymied by a failure to tackle the deepest problems generated by the contradiction between economic change and political stasis’

    Central planning!

    ‘The most spectacular of these is the collapse of the property market. It has undermined household savings, more than 75 per cent of which has been invested in property’

    Easy come easy go, right boys?

  37. Buyers Smash Their Just-Renovated Homes, Cry in Despair; Mass Foreclosures in China Crush the People

    China Observer

    5 hours ago

    The homeowner, unable to repay his mortgage, was forced to default, leading to his house being auctioned by the court. Since court-auctioned houses are sold at much lower prices than the market value, he ended up in debt. In frustration, he destroyed all the renovations in the house the day before the auction.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfAjSFe1qy4

    21 minutes.

    1. Politics
      Trump calls for US to be ‘crypto capital of the planet’ in appeal to Nashville bitcoin conference
      Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump departs after speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Saturday, July 27, 2024, in Nashville, Tenn.
      (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
      By KIMBERLEE KRUESI
      Updated 2:51 PM PDT, July 27, 2024

      NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Former President Donald Trump on Saturday laid out his plans to wholeheartedly embrace cryptocurrency if elected for a second term, telling hundreds of cheering supporters of the digital tokens that he wants the U.S. to be a “bitcoin superpower” under his leadership.

      In his keynote address at a bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee, the Republican presidential nominee promised to make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet” and create a bitcoin “strategic reserve” using the currency that the government currently holds.

      He also promised to remove Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler if elected and implement a crypto advisory council, teasing the crowd by asking attendees if anyone wanted to join.

      “We will have regulations, but from now on the rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry,” he said.
      …
      https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-stockpile-6f1314f5e99bbf47cc3ee6fc6178588d

  40. Gag, choke, puke

    Windfall: FBI Pays $2M To Strzok, Ex-Lover For Released Anti-Trump Tex

    by Zero Hedge
    July 27th 2024, 2:52 pm

    The FBI will pay disgraced former FBI official Peter Strzok and his former lover Lisa Page millions in a settlement over the release of their anti-Trump text messages, CNN reported on Friday.

    Kyle Cheney
    @kyledcheney

    👀 Former FBI agent Peter Strzok’s attorneys say he’s getting $1.2 million from a settlement with DOJ over the release of his private text messages. Additional claims about his removal from the FBI remain pending.

    https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1816947873151328477

  43. What the hell is the globe and mail smoking thinking china is going to go to a more liberalized form of government.

  44. “With the right marketing and exposure, you can have buyers competing and pushing your price up — but only if the market — and buyers — feel you are underpriced. Otherwise, your property will likely sit and be forced into a price reduction.’”

    Price below market value => bid wars, multiple offers over asking

    Price above market value => offers below asking, if any, price reduction needed to sell

    It’s not rocket science… mindlessly simple, in fact.

    1. MARKETS
      A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns his favorite valuation measure just hit all-time highs — setting stocks up for a potential 70% drop
      William Edwards Jul 27, 2024, 2:00 AM PDT

      – John Hussman warns of record-high stock valuations, signaling poor long-term returns.

      – Hussman’s preferred valuation measure has a remarkable track record for predicting future returns.

      – Hussman called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-sp500-valuation-all-time-high-bubble-hussman-2024-7

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