It Was A Dream That’s Subsequently Turned Into A Nightmare
A report from Realtor.com. “Median home prices fell in July, marking the first-ever seasonal decline in a month that’s typically a peak time for home sales. The national median list price dipped from $445,000 in June to $439,950 in July, according to a new monthly housing report by Realtor.com®. This hesitancy among buyers likely also contributed to prices being slashed on 18.9% of listings in July, up from 15.5% a year ago. ‘Sellers are becoming more grounded with patience and price expectations,’ says Realtor.com senior economist Ralph McLaughlin in his analysis. Indeed, the share of listings with price cuts is the highest since 2022. The total number of homes for sale in July was 36.6% higher than the year prior, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth. Metros that saw the largest increases in the number of homes for sale included Tampa, FL, at 94.9%; Orlando, FL, at 78.7%; and San Diego at 77.7%.”
Community Impact in Texas. “A rise in housing options and interest rates has led to an increased number of houses available to potential buyers in Bastrop and Cedar Creek. The population in Bastrop County was 106,000 as of 2022, a 20% increase from 2019, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. In the same timeframe, the number of housing units in the county increased by over 27% from 31,085 to 39,539. In Bastrop and Cedar Creek, the number of active listings increased from 2019-2023 by 151.75% and 74.06%, respectively, according to Austin Board of Realtors data. Jamie Ehresman, co-owner of the Bastrop-based J&S Real Estate Team, said it is currently a buyer’s market because housing inventory is at the highest it has ever been in Bastrop. ‘There’s enough selection out there right now that buyers have the ability to actually negotiate, and they haven’t before,’ Ehresman said.”
The Washington Post. “When Vickie Franzen and her husband, Jon Crenshaw, bought their first house in Roseville, Calif., in 2018, they never expected they would still be there in 2024. Last October, Franzen considered upsizing to a larger home, but once she and her husband took a look at the market, they quickly retreated. Prices in their area, a suburb of Sacramento, had shot up more than 35 percent since they had last house-hunted. Add in higher interest rates, Franzen says, and ‘we couldn’t afford our current home now,’ let alone a bigger one.”
“These days, a lot of homeowners are having those debates. Heather Devoto, vice president of the McLean, Va., branch of First Home Mortgage, describes many of her consultations with clients lately as ‘therapy calls.’ ‘I spend more time on the phone now with people, listening and trying to help them, and [doing] a lot of hand-holding,’ she says. ‘They’re just like, ‘We’re just stuck.’ Tim Haugh, who bought a three-bedroom house in San Jose in 2020, also doesn’t see how his family could move. ‘We’re locked in,’ he says. He and his wife have a 3 percent mortgage rate. Even if they could pay the same price for their house today, Haugh says, ‘with the interest rates, I think [it would be] more than double the mortgage payment, which is just insane.'”
From Local 10. “Florida’s public not-for-profit property insurer of last resort is pushing for double-digit rate increases. Tim Cerio, the president of Citizens Property Insurance Corporation recently presented the 14% increase proposal to regulators. ‘If we keep Citizens rates extremely low, then at the end of the day the taxpayers … get stuck holding the bag,’ said Florida Rep. Daniel Perez.”
The News Press in Florida. “Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different outcomes is a useful definition of ‘insanity.’ That’s why FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program underwrites the insanity of rebuilding a house that gets flooded out again and again because of its location on that same location, or building a new house in on ground that gets flooded out over and over. Engineers live by the maxim ‘good planning is preparation for the inevitable.’ The government subsidized National Flood Insurance Program is at cross-purposes with this. The reason private insurers do not write home flood insurance policies is because it is considered a ‘bad bet’ for the insurer. In the end, it’s a lot more than about money. It’s about good planning for an inevitable future versus subsidizing disasters that can be anticipated and mitigated now.”
Richmond Bizsense in Virginia. “A local banker will serve more than four years in prison for a long-running, multimillion-dollar lending fraud. James Stevens, who for 15 years orchestrated what prosecutors described as a ‘Ponzi loan scheme’ at Henrico-based Primis Bank and its predecessors, was sentenced Thursday to serve 51 months in a federal facility. The 47-year-old lifelong Northern Neck resident was a commercial lender and branch manager at Primis and its previous incarnations Sonabank, EVB and Southside Bank from 2000 to 2023. He pleaded guilty in February to one count of bank fraud and admitted to a scam that ran from 2008 through June 2023. It involved issuing numerous fraudulent loans in the names of both witting and unwitting Primis customers.The scam, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office, came to an end when Stevens was hospitalized last year and unable to maintain payments on fraudulently obtained loans.”
The Real Deal. “Jonathan Gould was already making money on traditional investments, but it wasn’t enough. As the New Jerseyan, now 67, looked to juice his returns, he stumbled upon an advertisement in the Wall Street Journal for a hard-money mortgage lending conference in Las Vegas. He went, and met a partner who brought him in on some small deals. In short order, he caught the bug. It all changed when he met Rob Buchanan. Buchanan was the founder of Pride of Austin, a hard-money lender playing in residential, commercial and construction projects. Gould would go on to invest more than a half million dollars with Buchanan, and for a decade, it all seemed to be on the up. But come 2023, disbursements stopped. Investors swarmed to recover their money, and lawsuits piled up as an outside analysis turned up startling evidence of an alleged Ponzi scheme.”
“The fund is now in receivership, with its carcass being picked apart. For a livestream of a recent hearing, dozens of spurned investors like Gould tuned in, hoping to understand how $60 million of their life savings and retirement nest eggs had dissolved into thin air. A group of investors has banded together to institute order and fight for their money — or at least what’s left of it. ‘It’s like a different Rob emerged,’ Gould said. Last year, distributions stopped altogether. Gould revealed that he’s totally wiped out and applying for welfare. ‘If I had money, I would be doing deals,’ he said. After investing with Buchanan for a decade, Gould doesn’t know where all the money went. ‘I’d like to think the money is sitting somewhere,’ he said.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “On June 27 a political gathering took place at the Trent Lakes Municipal Office near Bobcaygeon, Ont. These town halls in cottage-country community centres have become thorny battlegrounds defining the future of these idyllic regions. The agenda of this particular meeting, for instance, included a potential licensing scheme for short-term rentals (STR), a bit of profanity in paradise. The short-term rental boom has also driven up property values, as cottages become seen as assets more than homes, and brought a revolving door of tenants that’s anathema to these close-knit communities.”
“‘I understand, from all the residents here, how tough this is, but I don’t think you understand how drastically different the real estate world has changed,’ said one late-30s cottage owner who operates an STR, and whose family has lived in the area for more than 50 years. ‘There’s no way any younger generation can come in and buy real estate here without renting it out. And quite frankly, we are going to be the ones that buy your cottages at the end. I can’t afford to own this on my own.'”
“‘Commodification takes an imagery – the cottage at the lake with the wharf, the water, the relaxation, and getting away from the stresses of urban living – and turns that into a commodity that’s bought and sold,’ Dr. said University of Northern British Columbia’s Greg Halseth. ‘Then you start having the rental of cottage properties. It had always been there, but now it was being turned not into something that could help you just pay for the cottage over the year, but it was being turned into a business.'”
From DPA International. “The sun sparkles over San Sebastián’s bay and harbour. But residents here and in an increasing number of Spanish cities are growing annoyed by the crowds, noise and housing shortages associated with mass tourism. The transformation of apartments into tourist quarters is also controversial, reducing the living space available to locals and driving up prices. Currently, flyers stuck to old town houses in Pamplona are calling for protest meetings, saying, ‘A neighbourhood lives here. How to prevent tourist apartments in your building.’ Over the summer, tens of thousands of locals have taken to the streets in Spanish cities from the Mallorcan capital of Palma to Barcelona, Málaga and the Canary Islands. Mallorca protesters carried signs saying Your luxury, our misery and We don’t want to be the pioneers of rising housing costs.'”
Worcester News in the UK. “Liberal Democrat councillors say several housing developments have stalled. Concerns have been raised in the Pershore area after houses have been left half built, some completed homes have been unsold and several sites are incomplete. Dan Boatright-Greene, group leader for Wychavon Liberal Democrats and a county councillor for Pershore, said: ‘The whole housing situation is a mess. We have thousands of residents struggling to find affordable rents and mortgages. Social housing not keeping pace with need. Yet hundreds of houses have been built. The sites focused on social and affordable housing, however, have stalled and we now have sites with half-finished buildings. Week after week I have residents getting in contact because they cannot afford to live here. But any attempt to build homes for residents results in the estate becoming unviable.'”
The Herald Sun. “Victorian home values may be falling but the size of the state’s typical loan has risen about $15,000 compared to a year ago. Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show the average loan size of owner-occupier dwellings was $604,343 as of June 2024, in comparison to $589,073 a year prior. Victorian agents said investors were exiting the market due to high interest rates and the introduction of land taxes – resulting in an oversupply of units and townhouses. A two-bedroom, one-bathroom unit at 1/47 Morwell Ave, Watsonia, passed in for a vendor bid of $350,000.”
“Ray White Macleod’s Kaylah Guerra said the home would have previously been hot property for an investor, but the unit’s $360,000-$390,000 asking price only garnered some interest from owner occupiers. Ms Gurerra said the mass investor exodus was due to the uncertainty caused by interest rates and the state governments land tax amendments which came into effect on January 1 this year. ‘We are selling so many properties off our rental roll,’ she said. ‘The cost of running an investment property is not stacking up, while rent is going up it’s not matching mortgage repayments. Interest rates need to go down and stability in the Victorian market needs to happen if we want investors to return.'”
From SBS News. “When Sid Prakash decided to build a family home in 2018, he did not expect that six years on, it would still be incomplete. Like many Australians, Sid dreamed of a place to call his own. But what started off as a positive experience turned sour as the months passed. ‘It was a dream that’s kind of subsequently turned into a nightmare,’ Sid told Insight. Eighteen months after Sid signed the contract to build with Pinnacle Builders, the company folded in 2020 and left the Melbourne family an unfinished build with several defects. For the family of four, the delayed build has meant they’ve had to live with Sid’s parents for the past six years. ‘I can’t even think to imagine what would have occurred if this wasn’t an option,’ he added.”
“Data from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) shows almost 3,000 building and construction companies (or eight per day) went under over the past financial year — that’s more businesses collapsing than in any other industry in the country. Amie and Anthony Lloyd, who own a small carpentry business in Canberra, were also hit hard by Rork Projects collapse — though it wasn’t the first insolvency they’d been caught up in. Collectively, the collapses have put them out of pocket almost half a million dollars. Amie believes many construction companies ‘rack up millions of dollars of debt, and they just walk away. It’s just another kick in the guts,’ Amie said.”
“Professor Jason Harris, a professor of corporate law at the University of Sydney says that the issue of insolvent trading in the building and construction sector is rife and it is not being properly policed by ASIC, the federal government’s corporate watchdog. ‘It’s the watchdog that nobody fears because it’s not bringing enough of these cases,’ he said. ‘The bad guys know that they’re highly unlikely to get caught, which is why they keep doing it. People have turned this into a business model.'”
“Sid says he would never choose to build his own home if he had his time again. ‘Anybody who wants to build a home at the moment, they’re really up for a lot of pain,’ he said. ‘Consumer protection is lacking, it’s a difficult situation out there.’ Sid’s family do not know when their home build will be finished.”
South China Morning Post. “Retiree Amy Ng* bought a 230 sq ft flat six years ago in a 60-year-old building in Sham Shui Po, one of Hong Kong’s poorest districts. Looking for a regular source of income in retirement, she split the space into two subdivided flats of 100 sq ft and 130 sq ft to rent. She figured if the building was acquired for redevelopment, the compensation would be a windfall. Ng, aged around 60, said she spent HK$200,000 (US$25,607) on the renovations. With the Hong Kong government considering proposals to regulate the design of subdivided homes and eliminate ‘improper’ ones, Ng and other landlords like her are anxious about the new rules, and the time and cost of meeting them.”
“All this has left Ng unsure about the future. ‘It depends on the exact requirements and how much I need to spend to fulfil them,’ she said. ‘If I have to spend another HK$100,000, I will not consider it.’ Engaging professionals to prove her flats met the standards could also be costly. ‘I’ll just leave my property vacant and wait for developers to acquire it. It is not worth it,’ she said.”
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‘Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different outcomes is a useful definition of ‘insanity.’ That’s why FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program underwrites the insanity of rebuilding a house that gets flooded out again and again because of its location on that same location, or building a new house in on ground that gets flooded out over and over’
This article is worth reading in full.
‘Add in higher interest rates, Franzen says, and ‘we couldn’t afford our current home now,’ let alone a bigger one…Even if they could pay the same price for their house today, Haugh says, ‘with the interest rates, I think [it would be] more than double the mortgage payment, which is just insane’
The good news Vickie and Tim, is that you can always sell.
‘It’s like a different Rob emerged,’ Gould said. Last year, distributions stopped altogether. Gould revealed that he’s totally wiped out and applying for welfare. ‘If I had money, I would be doing deals,’ he said. After investing with Buchanan for a decade, Gould doesn’t know where all the money went. ‘I’d like to think the money is sitting somewhere’
Bargaining <- Jon you are here.
Greedy & stupid is no way to go through life, Jonathan.
Gould revealed that he’s totally wiped out and applying for welfare. ‘If I had money, I would be doing deals,
So, you just got wiped out and are applying for welfare but your desire to be a “big shot” is so strong that if you had more money you would do it all over again? Did I get that right?
Apparently stupid didn’t hurt quite enough, yet.
The crypto baggies who levered up on debt to “invest” in scam digital gambling tokens are going to be liquidating assets bigly to cover their margin calls, with cascading effects throughout the Fed’s Ponzi markets. Long buttered popcorn.
https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
I thought TBTB could defer the financial reckoning day until after the elections. Apparently not. The sheeple seeing trillions in fake wealth created by fake money get vaporized from their pension funds and 401(ks) might want answers and won’t be mollified by Dementia Joe and Cackling Kamala playing their usual blame game.
‘I spend more time on the phone now with people, listening and trying to help them, and [doing] a lot of hand-holding,’ she says. ‘They’re just like, ‘We’re just stuck.’
Bank VPs who get weary with hand-holding FBs facing their financial Waterloo should consider outsourcing such calls to the Francis Soyer FB Counseling Services, who will inform them they are schlonged, bigly, and to start packing boxes.
The inspiration for the Francis Soyer caring approach to FB therapy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EbKssmdKN0
Haha! Francis, you ol’ softie: how do you REALLY feel . . ?!
Mr. Banker would be proud.
Mr. Banker would be proud.
I miss Mr. Banker.
Me too. IIRC, he did pop in. I recall Ben saying something like “look who the cat dragged in.”
He’s posting on this thread this morning.
☝️
Correction: ☝️?
One of my kinder, gentler moments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdbfJeI1Y1I
“The fund is now in receivership, with its carcass being picked apart. For a livestream of a recent hearing, dozens of spurned investors like Gould tuned in, hoping to understand how $60 million of their life savings and retirement nest eggs had dissolved into thin air.
Must.not.laugh.
[Captain Obvious states: This article is long.]
‘Zombie’ Condos, Angry Residents and a Ruling That Stunned Miami’s Developers
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/zombie-condos-angry-residents-and-a-ruling-that-stunned-miamis-developers-4537ce46
MIAMI—Angelica Avila never wanted to sell her condo overlooking Biscayne Bay. She liked to watch the sunrise each morning from the balcony. Even when a developer who was buying other condos in the building offered $690,080 for her unit—more than triple what she spent to buy and upgrade her home of 30 years—she refused the offer.
But the developer acquired enough units to take control of the building and terminate the condo, paving the way for its demolition. In the fall, after Two Roads Development signaled it would turn off services in the building, including air conditioning, elevators and security, Avila moved to a house further inland, where she rents a small room.
She visits a storage unit weekly to swap out her clothes because the room is too small. “This is my home now,” said Avila, 55 years old, gesturing to the storage unit.
Meanwhile, the 191-unit condo building she used to call home—Biscayne 21—sits empty, a zombie on prime waterfront land in Miami’s Edgewater neighborhood.
Avila’s plight stems from a longstanding practice threatened by an appeals court ruling earlier this year. The practice, in which developers can force condo owners to sell homes they never intended to leave, was challenged in March. The appeals court stunned the Miami real estate community by siding with the small group of residents who refused to sell at Biscayne 21. The court overturned a ruling from a circuit judge that had been in favor of Two Roads and its partners.
Two Roads has said its partnership, which took out a $150 million loan to buy the building, will appeal the decision to the state supreme court if the appeals court doesn’t reconsider. The partnership declined to comment. Lawrence Pecan, counsel for the group, said: “I was a little bit shocked when the appellate opinion came down. What we’d done was not really even controversial.”
Now dozens of other Miami developers with their own condo terminations under way are wondering what the appellate court ruling will mean for their planned projects.
“This will greatly impact the risk analysis a developer must undertake in pursuing an acquisition of one of these older condominiums,” said Matt Allen, a developer at Related Group, a real-estate company that has terminated multiple condominiums in Florida.
Up and down the coast of South Florida, developers have been buying out condo units in buildings for the purpose of tearing down these decades-old properties and building glimmering new luxury towers in their place. It is one of the few ways to acquire scarce land on the water. For older buildings, a bulk purchase by a developer is often a welcome solution for owners who can’t find buyers in the market.
A few, like Avila, say they don’t want to sell regardless of price. But they have had little recourse if most of their neighbors want to sell. In some cases, as in her building, Biscayne 21, a developer acquires enough units to take control of the condo board and alter the rules so that it no longer needs the approval of every resident to complete a bulk purchase of all units.
After a condominium-tower collapse in Surfside, Fla., killed 98 people in 2021, Florida passed a law that requires certain older buildings to undergo safety inspections that often require special assessments that can run to more than $150,000. Many condo owners welcome the usually above-market price developers are willing to pay to sell and avoid these costs.
Condo inventory in certain Florida markets is up by more than 100% year over year, according to a Douglas Elliman report, as owners across the state dump their units because they can’t afford the special assessments.
State lawmaker Vicki Lopez said the ruling could produce a ripple effect across the state that will chill developers at a time when older condominium buildings are grappling with hefty special assessments that many won’t be able to bear.
The appellate court ruling came about six months after the remaining Biscayne 21 holdouts had to leave.
In some cases, a bulk buyer can build up a position over many years, eventually reaching a large enough critical mass to compel potential holdouts to go along and sell.
That was the case with Biscayne 21. In 2012, Bragi Sigurdsson, a local real-estate broker, began buying units in the building, he said. He and his partners bought units over a period of years, Sigurdsson said, “knowing that at one point or another this building would be gone after by a developer.”
In 2019, Sigurdsson held a meeting in the building’s penthouse where he revealed that he and his partners had acquired a large portion of the apartments. They were interested in acquiring the rest, he said.
The owners were shocked. Residents recall one woman, in her 80s, who stood up in protest.
“Why don’t you just go away?” she said.
“If it weren’t me, it would be somebody else,” Sigurdsson replied.
In an effort to thwart Sigurdsson’s plan, longtime resident Gail Tucker-Griffith sent a letter to owners. She urged them to find a buyer who would offer the best price for their units.
“I believe that everyone here knows full well that a hostile takeover is in progress,” she emailed other owners.
Ultimately, Sigurdsson and his investors joined with Two Roads and retained an ownership interest in the new development project. Together they bought out the Biscayne 21 building in bulk. Some of them, especially absentee owners who rented out their units, were happy to sell. But others needed more persuasion.
The rules of the sales process offer bulk buyers some leverage for getting reluctant sellers to come to the table.
Developers tend to offer above market-rate prices for the earlier sales. But once they reach a certain threshold needed to terminate a condominium through a vote—often 95%—the remaining owners are compelled to sell.
These final 5% of sales are often subject to an appraisal process that uses a definition of “fair market” that former Miami-Dade circuit judge Michael Hanzman called “irrational” in a written order.
While the appraiser looks at similar buildings to determine the value of the final remaining units, it doesn’t take into consideration what other units within the same building were sold for.
For example, after the developer terminated the condo, its offer to Avila was more than 37% below what comparable unit owners got when they accepted the initial offer, according to public documents.
Robert Murphy, a retired New York attorney, purchased a Biscayne 21 unit for $272,000 in 2012. From his balcony he would spot dolphins and sea turtles. When developers offered him more than $1 million for his unit, he said no because it wasn’t enough to buy him a similar residence. But like the others, he was forced out last year.
“People get in, gradually gain enough control, and then sell to a developer,” he said. “Resistance seems futile.”
Now dozens of other Miami developers with their own condo terminations under way are wondering what the appellate court ruling will mean for their planned projects.
One more reason no one should buy a Condo in FL for at least the next 1-2 years. Way way too much unknown risk.
I don’t see the holding costs going back down.
Gould revealed that he’s totally wiped out and applying for welfare. ‘If I had money, I would be doing deals,’ he said.
Feel-good story of the day!
The transformation of apartments into tourist quarters is also controversial, reducing the living space available to locals and driving up prices.
The STR speculator scum need to be driven out of every neighborhood and community they’ve infested by any means necessary.
Ms Gurerra said the mass investor exodus was due to the uncertainty caused by interest rates and the state governments land tax amendments which came into effect on January 1 this year.
Die, speculator scum.
“Data from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) shows almost 3,000 building and construction companies (or eight per day) went under over the past financial year — that’s more businesses collapsing than in any other industry in the country.
Gosh, who’d have thunk that a housing boom based on limitless cheap credit, unscrupulous builders, and complicit or incompetent inspectors would ever end badly for homebuyers?
‘I’ll just leave my property vacant and wait for developers to acquire it. It is not worth it,’ she said.”
That’s the spirit, Ng!
Is now a good time to buy the dip?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
CRATER
Laughs in all cash and physical silver 🤣🤣🤣
Platinum, Bitchez!!
10X more rare than gold, yet selling for less than half the price
High industrial usage
Main sources of supply: South Africa (circling the drain) and Russia
https://www.kitco.com/charts/platinum
same
(I’ve made it a personal challenge to only maintain an average of $0.01 financial balance in a few accounts, without invoking an overdraft. after a few decades, so far – so good!)
when i stop seeing help wanted signs in almost every place i go then we are in big trouble,
A trailing indicator.
Not this time.
Looks like the market is trying to rebound, but I don’t think they have enough to juice to keep the ceiling up any longer. Too much war going on.
Isn’t war good for business?
In this day and age, possibly not. And I don’t even know if this crash is related to the pending conflicts. It could just be the forces of recession finally breaking the dam.
[title of today’s post]
Why do you DO this to meeeeee??? 😭😭😭😭
Subprime auto loan delinquencies surged last month. The long-deferred financial reckoning day is slouching closer, as the Fed’s financial house of cards nears collapse under the weight of its debt, fraud, and mark-to-fantasy accounting.
https://x.com/GuyDealership/status/1818738760743632999
“…Florida’s public not-for-profit property insurer of last resort is pushing for double-digit rate increases….”
Another Monday, another out-of-control holding costs story.
** “She figured if the building was acquired for redevelopment, the compensation would be a windfall. Ng, aged around 60, said she spent HK$200,000 (US$25,607) on the renovations. With the Hong Kong government considering proposals to regulate the design ..”
even though Hong Kong has a storied history of capitalism, I’d bet $50 dollars (I’m from Philadelphia) that Ng would be out in the street banging pots & pans in righteous anger, DEMANDING the govt. do something to make her whole, if her “investment” lost $$ !!
230 square feet. What is there to renovate?
Hurricane Debby makes landfall in Florida.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e-r5jGsw5A
Hurricanes, escalating holding costs, special HOA assessments to compensate for poor maintenance practices, rising sea levels…
What’s there not to like about Florida? <;{
How much longer until beach front condos sell for $1?
[Bring out your dead.]
This California COVID surge is stronger, longer-lasting than expected, surprising experts.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-covid-surge-stronger-longer-100010378.html
[From the comments section:]
I live in a Ca town with 400k people and work in an office with 100 people that I walk by and talk to throughout the day, I have heard of zero cases of covid, zero stories of friends or relatives with covid. I am willingly vaccinated and I’m not a trumper “who doesn’t believe in it”.
Where is this “covid wave”? I know nobody with it and have heard no stories….. Where is this “covid surge”?
[Back to the article …]
California’s summer COVID surge has proved to be particularly strong and enduring, surprising experts with its tenacity as it storms into a third month.
The strength of this summer’s COVID surge probably is largely related to the ever-more infectious subvariants that continue to emerge as the coronavirus evolves, said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious disease at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. A dizzying number of related subvariants — collectively dubbed FLiRT — have emerged in recent months. One in particular, KP.3.1.1, has been picking up steam at a startling pace and has become the most common strain nationwide.
“KP.3.1.1 seems to be the most adept at transmission,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases expert at UC San Francisco. “And it’s the one that people think will continue to take over, not only in the United States, but … around the world.”
Coronavirus levels in California wastewater have surpassed the peaks seen in each of the last two summers, according to data estimates released Friday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which run through the week ending July 27. Coronavirus levels in sewage have been “high” or “very high” for eight consecutive weeks.
“This particular surge … is fairly robust and long-lasting, lasting a little longer than I thought that it would. It’s certainly very different from last summer,” Hudson said.
California is one of 43 states, as well as the District of Columbia, with “high” or “very high” coronavirus levels in wastewater.
While hospitalizations overall remain a fraction of those seen during earlier COVID summertime spikes, hospitalizations and emergency room visits have been ticking up, and clinics are seeing high numbers of infected patients.
“This is not a benign wave,” wrote Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, in a blog post published Saturday. “It’s a major wave now … we haven’t yet reached the plateau.”
In Los Angeles County, there were an average of 389 coronavirus-positive hospitalized patients per day for the week that ended July 27, roughly twice as high as a month ago. The latest number is about two-thirds of the peak from last summer and one-third the peak from the summer of 2022.
“We are seeing a lot of outpatient cases — it’s been a much higher uptick over the last week, actually,” Hudson said Friday.
For the week that ended Saturday, the CDC estimated that KP.3.1.1 comprised 27.8% of coronavirus samples nationwide, an astonishing jump from its 7.2% share a month ago.
Because the FLiRT subvariants are related, it’s likely that being infected with one will provide some protection against the others — at least for a time.
But if you’re further removed from a brush with COVID, the rise of KP.3.1.1 heightens the risk of infection, as it has evolved to be even more contagious, Chin-Hong said.
Amid this ever-more-infectious backdrop, the number of people who have never had COVID-19 — the “Novids” — is dwindling.
“The proportion of ‘Novids’ is getting smaller and smaller,” Chin-Hong said. “I’ve heard so many stories in the last few weeks of people who didn’t get any [COVID illness] until this point, now in our fifth year” since COVID emerged.
Though the newer subvariants are more easily spread, there are, generally speaking, no indications that they are more likely to put someone in the hospital.
But some people have nevertheless expressed surprise at how awful they feel from their latest COVID-19 illness, complaining of sore throats so intense they feel as if they’re swallowing razors or broken glass, and bouts of severe coughing that leave them winded.
It may be that some people are years removed from their last infection or vaccine dose, making this summer’s sickness feel especially terrible, doctors say.
“A lot of that residual protection has waned, and then you add in a new variant that is able to outwit whatever remaining immunity folks have, and we are starting to see this uptick in cases,” Hudson said.
Particular risk factors — age, underlying health conditions and how long it has been since their last vaccine dose — all can also affect the severity of someone’s COVID illness.
It’s difficult to quantify the size of this latest surge, as many people are either testing at home or not testing at all. But cases have clearly been on the rise.
For the week that ended July 28, there were an average of 452 new cases a day in L.A. County, up from 413 the prior week. Last summer’s peak was 571. Cases are an undercount, as they only include tests conducted at medical facilities.
In L.A. County, coronavirus levels in wastewater swelled to 44% of last winter’s peak over the 10-day period that ended July 20. That’s more than double the level seen a month earlier.
Coronavirus levels in L.A. County wastewater are at 82% of last summer’s peak, which occurred in early September.
In Santa Clara County, the most populous in the San Francisco Bay Area, coronavirus levels are high in all sewersheds — including San Jose and Palo Alto.
The renewed wave of infections comes as many people aren’t up-to-date on their COVID vaccinations. Everyone age 6 months and up should have gotten at least one COVID vaccination since September, health officials say, but few have done so. Of Californians age 65 and up, 37% have received at least one COVID vaccination in that time frame. The same is true for 18.7% of those age 50 to 64, and just 10.1% of the youngest adults.
On top of that, many people have abandoned COVID safety measures, and are no longer worrying about spending time in stuffy indoor settings or socializing with people who are ill. Many are not wearing masks or rigorously washing their hands.
More people are seeking emergency room care for coronavirus-related illness. For the seven-day period that ended July 28, 3.7% of all emergency room visits in L.A. County were coronavirus-related. That’s up from 2.3% a month earlier. Last summer’s peak for that metric was 5.1%.
At UC San Francisco, COVID hospitalizations had crept higher this summer, but have been stable over the last few weeks, Chin-Hong said. That, he said, suggests COVID patients aren’t ill enough to stay for very long after being admitted or require a trip to the intensive care unit.
The CDC and other health experts have a number of recommended strategies for people looking to avoid getting COVID or any other respiratory virus, such as staying up-to-date with immunizations, staying away from sick people, washing or sanitizing your hands often; and gathering outdoors or doing what you can to keep indoor air cleaner, such as opening windows to allow in fresh air and filtering indoor air.
Additional strategies include masking and asking people to test before gathering for an event, the CDC says. The strategies are especially helpful when COVID is causing a lot of illness in a community.
With most people having stopped wearing masks routinely, Chin-Hong said it’s not a bad idea to keep one handy to put on in case, say, someone next to you on the plane starts coughing.
In a statement, the L.A. County Department of Public Health said the current data do not help forecast what’s in store for the rest of the summer.
The 2022 summer wave played out over 16 weeks, during which viral levels were “high” or “very high” in California. Last summer’s wave in California lasted eight weeks.
At some point, though, the spike will crest — though when it does won’t be immediately obvious. In one possibly positive sign, the CDC on Friday said that California’s COVID epidemic status was either stable or uncertain, an improvement from last week’s estimate that COVID-19 was still growing.
But merely entering a “stable or uncertain” status doesn’t necessarily mean COVID will start trending downward. Scientists will need more weeks of data to see whether the wave has peaked or is just in a temporary lull.
In only two states did the CDC estimate that COVID-19 was likely declining: Hawaii and Nevada. Besides California, the states labeled as being on a stable or uncertain COVID trajectory were Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Idaho, Maine and Pennsylvania. COVID-19 was estimated to be growing or likely growing in 34 states, as well as the District of Columbia. No estimates were available for seven states.
With an updated COVID vaccine likely to come next month, doctors offered varying advice about whether to wait or get the current one now to protect against the latest surge.
Hudson suggested waiting. “September is a month away now,” she said.
Chin-Hong suggested older or immunocompromised individuals — who are at the highest risk of developing severe COVID illness — should consider getting the current formulation if they are not up-to-date.
In Northern California, Chin-Hong said, demand for the existing COVID-19 vaccine has increased so much that some people are having a hard time finding it. But individual drug stores should still have the vaccine, he said.
It’s possible that people who get the current vaccine now may not have to wait that long before getting the updated vaccine this fall. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration last year allowed people to get the 2023-24 updated vaccine as soon as two months after their last dose.
If that same timeline applies for the 2024-25 vaccine, that would mean someone could get the current vaccine in August, but still be able to get the updated vaccine in October, Chin-Hong said.
[And finally …]
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
[It figures.]
“KP.3.1.1 seems to be the most adept at transmission,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases expert at UC San Francisco.
Sorry, Doc, your gibberish nerdy-looking combinations of letters and numbers don’t scare me, nor should they anyone else.
Notice how they just slipping into the phrase “summer surge,” as if they haven’t spent the last four years saying that COVID was a flu-like disease that went away in summer.
But then say ridiculous things like “ever-more contagious” and “stay outdoors” in the same breath. If it’s so contagious, you’ll still catch it outdoors, mask or not. That’s been true since the second half of Delta.
MSM articles have become so unbelievable that I had to look up Dr. Ching-Chong to see if he even exists. I guess anyone can be an expert these days.
Retail Traders Furious As Outages Hit Major US Brokerages Amid Black Monday Chaos
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-traders-furious-outages-hit-major-us-brokerages-amid-black-monday-chaos
US retail traders are panicking this AM after likely receiving push notifications on their smartphones about market turmoil in Asia and Europe, which has since spread to the US premarket. Now that the cash session is about 15 minutes underway, website monitor DownDector reports outages are emerging across several major US brokerage houses as everyone tries to log into their accounts and sell stocks.
DownDector reports that users of Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Ameritrade, Vanguard, and E-Trade are all reporting website outages, which have been surging around the start of the US cash session.
A bit late to hit that SELL button, eh retail?
“DownDector reports that users of Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Ameritrade, Vanguard, and E-Trade are all reporting website outages, which have been surging around the start of the US cash session.”
It’s a bummer, but how much difference can it make at this point? The time to sell was a few weeks ago, not today.
Are Banks Sweeping Dud Property Loans Under the Rug?
New accounting rules should give investors an earlier warning, but surprises are cropping up and there could be more to come.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/are-banks-sweeping-dud-property-loans-under-the-rug-61fd7029
After the last major financial crisis, when scores of banks failed or took government bailouts while sporting seemingly pristine balance sheets, America’s accounting rule makers got working on a new system for reporting credit losses that was supposed to make lenders recognize them more quickly.
That new set of rules has been in place for a little over four years. Investors could be forgiven for wondering if it is working any better than the former one.
The old system was called the incurred-loss model. To book a loss, a lender had to conclude it was “probable” that one had already happened. The term “probable” wasn’t defined numerically, but the bar was widely interpreted to be very high—perhaps a 70% or greater likelihood. Bankers used to explain, conveniently, that they would have booked more loan losses, if only the rules would have let them.
Under the new system, in place at most large companies since 2020, lenders from day one are supposed to continuously estimate their credit losses over the life of a given instrument, be it a loan or bond. The threshold for recording losses is supposed to be much lower—when they are “expected,” rather than waiting until losses probably happened. This was supposed to lead to more aggressive, and more timely, loss recognition.
The office-loan market is testing investors’ faith in the new expected-loss model. As with other commercial properties, loan payments on office buildings often are interest-only until maturity. When rates were ultralow, many lenders and borrowers went into these loans assuming they would be refinanced rather than paid off at the end. That would mean no defaults as long as they could keep rolling over the loans.
The pandemic sent office values in many big cities tumbling as more people worked from home. Now, for many borrowers, refinancing isn’t an option because the buildings are worth less than the borrowers owe. That makes defaults inevitable. Until then, though, the owners still may be current on their payments. Hope springs eternal, until it doesn’t.
In a July 24 note, Pimco’s John Murray and François Trausch warned of a $1.5 trillion wall of maturities for commercial real-estate loans over the next two years. “Lenders and borrowers will be forced to ‘face the music,’” they wrote. If they are right, it would mean the expected-loss model hasn’t been working as billed. Lenders still have wide discretion to delay officially expecting red ink if they would prefer not to expect it.
Until they can’t. At New York Community Bancorp NYCB 0.50%increase; green up pointing triangle, credit losses on commercial real-estate loans, including office loans, have surged in the past few quarters, raising questions about why management took so long to identify them. A bigger concern should be the losses at other lenders that aren’t yet visible to outsiders.
Noted short seller Carson Block, in a report last December, predicted large credit losses would soon swamp Blackstone Mortgage Trust BXMT -1.61%decrease; red down pointing triangle, a nonbank commercial real-estate lender. The company at the time called his report “self-interested and misleading” and said it was “well positioned to navigate this environment.” Then in July, it cut its dividend and posted its third consecutive quarterly net loss. Credit losses last quarter were so large that they exceeded the company’s net interest income.
Curiously, default rates have been higher for property loans backing widely held commercial-mortgage-backed securities than for the same types of loans on banks’ balance sheets. That underscores how traditional lenders have more flexibility to help borrowers work out their problems than do the vehicles that issue commercial-mortgage-backed securities, which can’t so easily “extend and pretend.”
Banking regulators have said they are aware there is a problem, while also assuring the public that this won’t be another 2008. An interview that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave to CBS’s “60 Minutes” in February is worth revisiting. Asked about banks’ office loans, he said, “There will be expected losses. It feels like a problem we’ll be working on for years. It’s a sizable problem.”
The irony of that statement: If Powell was right about the losses then, under the expected-loss model, banks probably should have booked them already.
“this won’t be another 2008”
Get used to hearing the phrases: not since 2008, not since 1987, not since 1929, etc.
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush, 2008
Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell roughly 8% in early trading as the Magnificent 7 stocks saw their worst intraday market cap loss ever during Monday’s market plunge.
As of 10:00 a.m. ET the ‘Mag 7’ group was down more than $860 billion in market valuation. Together the Mag 7 stocks make up roughly 43% of the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) weighting.
The other components of the group also dropped with Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG) and Meta (META) falling more than 3%. EV giant Tesla (TSLA) plunged more than 5%.
E-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) dropped more than 8% while software maker Microsoft (MSFT) plunged 5%.
Individual company news also put pressure on the Mag 7 stocks.
Apple (AAPL) dropped more than 4% after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) revealed over the weekend it had cut half of its stake in the iPhone maker.
AI chip heavyweight Nvidia fell as much as 13% at the market open to pare some of its losses. Analysts noted recent negative catalysts weighing on the stock.
On Friday Nvidia closed off the lows of the session, down only 1.8% while Intel (INTC) shares cratered over 26% following a disastrous second quarter earnings report, and a broad decline in chip stocks led the tech sector lower.
After the July jobs report, which showed job growth slowed last month and the unemployment rate reached a nearly three-year high, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped into correction territory, defined as a 10% drop from its most recent high.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-tanks-as-magnificent-7-shares-see-worst-market-cap-loss-ever-145328058.html
Silver lining: At least interest rates are finally going down.
That’s no silver lining to me.
SPAXX@ 4.97% too good to last, because it’s a War On Savers.
Dang. I was so hoping that big-cap stocks would continue to rocket higher indefinitely, thereby entrenching large bureaucracies, maximizing opportunities for corruption, and minimizing accountability among the corporate elite.
Biden’s Treasury accused of trying to juice U.S. economy pre-election.
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/05/biden-treasury-economy-spending-election
The Treasury Department is being accused of trying to juice the economy ahead of the election, by changing how it finances government spending.
Why it matters: This proves that everything — even wonky bond market auctions — can turn into a political fight.
The big picture: The Treasury tries to borrow money at the lowest cost to taxpayers and in the most boring, least attention-grabbing way possible.
Now Republican lawmakers and at least one renowned economist say its strategy of late has been at odds with the Fed’s goal of slowing the economy.
How it works: The Treasury conducts regular bond market auctions to sell debt, fund the annual budget deficit, and roll over existing bonds that are maturing.
For the past year, short-term debt — or Treasury bills — have been about 20% of all outstanding debt.
That’s at the high end of the old suggested range. Last week the range was updated to say that 20% should be the average, not the cap.
The accusation: Short-term debt is becoming a rising share of all outstanding debt, while the share of long-term debt, like 10-year or 30-year bonds, stays flat. In turn, critics say the lower supply is preventing long-term interest rates from going up. Those rates influence borrowing costs across the economy.
Lower rates mean stronger economic activity — the opposite of what the Fed has been trying to achieve by setting overnight interest rates at a high level.
Of course, if you believe the Fed has been behind the curve and has waited too long to cut rates, then the Treasury has been helping the economic cause rather than hurting it.
What they’re saying: “Some people, including myself, believe this is being done to artificially stimulate markets in the run-up to the election,” Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) said at a hearing last month.
Two former Treasury advisers — prominent economists Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Miran — write in a new paper that officials are manipulating financial conditions and the economy, “usurping core functions of the Federal Reserve.”
“While we have no smoking gun, I would say if it walks and quacks like a duck, it must be a duck,” Roubini tells Axios.
[A chart appears here.]
The other side: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the paper “suggests a strategy that is intended to ease financial conditions, and I can assure you 100% that there is no such strategy. We have never, ever discussed anything of the sort.”
Reality check: Treasury officials charged with debt management act not as politicians but as technocrats. A committee of private sector banks and liquidity providers meets quarterly to provide recommendations.
The rise of money-market funds means more demand for short-term debt, and specifically Treasury bills. Treasury also needs to refill coffers drained by prolonged debt ceiling negotiations last year.
“There isn’t malicious intent, but rather Treasury trying to prevent a full-blown bond market meltdown by issuing too much in the wrong spot and pushing interest rates sharply higher in the process,” TD Securities rates strategist Gennadiy Goldberg tells Axios.
Follow the money: The yield curve is inverted, meaning short-term debt yields more than longer-term bonds. Right now it’s therefore pricier to issue bills.
In theory, it would be advantageous for the Treasury to issue more long-term bonds, Goldberg says, but that assumes there would be as much demand for, say, $1 trillion worth of 30-year bonds as there would be for the same amount of three-month bills.
The bottom line: Toss theories of malicious intent on the part of Treasury officials to the side. It still leaves the interesting question of whether its issuance is impacting the economy.
Miran and Roubini say the issuance strategy has pushed down the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond by a quarter of a percentage point over the last year.
According to the two economists, the economic effect of the lower rates is similar to that of a 1-point interest rate cut by the Fed.
“It is a backdoor form of quantitative easing,” Roubini says. “You are achieving the same result of reducing long-term interest rates the way the Fed was doing — by manipulating not the demand for long-term bonds, but the supply of them.”
Oh God, step right up and get your new and improved “safe and effective “.Covid Shot.
IMHO, who knows what people are getting because the basic is the inaccurate PCR test. The inaccurate PCR test is the basis for slaughtering the chicken and cattle supply.
IMHO, the MRNA expiermental Covid vaccines, do nothing to prevent Covid, but the adverse side effects are horrific. This is the biggest crime in history that this killer snake oil vaccines failure technology is anything but a weapon of mass destruction.
While they cover up the overwhelming evidence that the vaccines kill and injure people, they refuse to take this killer poison off the market, and they want to put it in everything , including the Bird Flu vaccine Countries are stockpiling.
One World Order fake news isn’t going to stop defrauding the public in all ways possible.
I also found out the UA has approved up to 40% bugs in all kind of products like flour, pastas, breads, countless products. They are going to force this bug thing , no vote in the matter allowed for human.
And the thing is a lot of people get very bad allergy and stomach problems if they ingest to many bugs.
We were not meant to ingest that much bird and reptile food.
So, enjoy the stock market crashing, civil war in UK, bombs exploding, people dying, .and just tell me this isn’t all part of the PLAN.
A reader sent these in:
Japan Topix Index hits the first circuit breaker, down 7%
https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1820257588086534276
1 in 3 parents say they can’t afford back-to-school shopping this year, Credit Karma says, with nearly 35% of parents expecting to incur debt to afford these supplies
https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1820129011210797263
I remember a couple months ago listening to @DiMartinoBooth
say in Vegas that Florida real estate is f$©&ed. Today I visited 9 different open houses, not one had a single person come through by the time I visited them. Multiple selling for less than they owe… 1/2
https://x.com/epicmortgageguy/status/1820148673579307386
Wage DEflation in the construction industry?
Construction wages fell in 2Q24, according to the employment cost index.
First significantly negative ECI print in history for construction.
This tracks with a -8% decline in residential units under construction vs. a year ago.
https://x.com/EricFinnigan/status/1818668103187779842
Sentiment volatility whipsaw begins…
‘Whispers of Aug07’
https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1820228370824905048
Canada and the United States have become some of the most unaffordable places in the world relative to income levels – especially in the major metros.
https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1820173626316083554
“Economists” are almost always wrong, they are paid to be optimistic and push narratives.
https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1820173396942139489
“Economists” are almost always wrong, they are paid to be optimistic and push narratives.
#EndTheFed
+1
End the Fed.
Swedish real estate crisis deepens as bankruptcies soar
The Swedish commercial real estate market is grappling with serious problems. The local Tax Authority has filed a bankruptcy application for Oscar Properties Holding AB, joining the growing list of creditors demanding bankruptcy proceedings against the luxury apartment developer.
Oscar Properties, like many other smaller real estate owners like K2A Knaust & Andersson Fastigheter AB, has been desperately trying to sell assets to raise cash for debt repayment, as refinancing on the bond market has become too costly. However, according to Bloomberg, due to a lack of willing buyers, these efforts have proven insufficient.
According to Creditsafe data, the number of real estate sector bankruptcies increased by 73 percent in the first seven months of this year. Although the interest rate cut in May encouraged many companies in the real estate industry to reissue bonds in Sweden, some significant entities like Heimstaden Bostad AB and Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB (also known as SBB) are still absent from the debt capital markets.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/swedish-real-estate-crisis-deepens-as-bankruptcies-soar/ar-AA1objnN
San Francisco Mayor London Breed recently promised a more aggressive approach to cleaning up encampments in the city. Crews removed several encampments in the last week. CBS News Bay Area returned to three different spots and found tents had also returned to those locations.
“This (tent) definitely wasn’t here this morning. This gentleman just moved in right now,” said Ramsey Armstrong as he walked along Treat Avenue.
Armstrong works at a salon across from the Treat Avenue encampment. City workers cleared the area about five days ago. A few people returned Sunday morning to set up their tents.
“As soon as the cops go, they’ll be back the next day,” Armstrong said. “Where do they got to go? I mean it doesn’t surprise me at all.”
Ramsey said it happens every time after an encampment cleanup.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/tents-return-to-san-francisco-streets-cleared-in-homeless-sweep/ar-AA1oek7N
A stock rout in Japan wiped out $15 billion of SoftBank Group Corp.’s value on Monday, after the company’s biggest single-day fall since 1998.
The technology giant’s stock fell 19%, the worst performance since SoftBank listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 1998. The stock has now extended its decline for the September quarter so far to 38%, in line to be the biggest such drop since 2001.
The plunge comes as founder Masayoshi Son prepares an investment blitz in AI and semiconductor technologies. The global market rout also threatens to hurt SoftBank’s Vision Fund unit, which holds investments in hundreds of technology startups.
The stock turmoil erased $2.9 billion of Son’s own personal wealth in a single day, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Son’s seen more than $5 billion of his worth vanish over the last three trading days, erasing much of his wealth gains since the start of the year and making him one of the hardest-hit tycoons in Asia.
“AI’s hype is fading now that there’s a greater focus on AI companies’ ability to deliver revenue and earnings,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Marvin Lo and Chris Muckensturm wrote in a note. “SoftBank’s AI investment strategy might help the company return to profitability, but it might not be smooth sailing with execution risk high.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softbank-group-shares-plunge-most-072315460.html
“now that there’s a greater focus on AI companies’ ability to deliver revenue and earnings”
AI is a joke.
When Mosa Meat served up a first-of-its-kind, lab-grown hamburger in 2013, it cost over $300,000. Eleven years later, around 200 startups worldwide remain hopeful that growing meat from cells, rather than slaughtering animals, will one day be a major portion of our food supply.
Despite their optimism, such success is not a given. In 2024, the industry has hit such rocky times that multiple startups have been forced to scale back or close shop.
The industry is talking about eventually producing about 30 million pounds of finished product annually. However, over 100 billion pounds of traditional meat is produced annually today. And if plant-based meat accounts for about 1% of all meat by volume, it’s going to take time for cultivated meat to get to that point, said Better Meat CEO Paul Shapiro, who wrote a book in 2018 called “Clean Meat.”
Any goal that puts cultivated meat in big box grocery stores or on fast food menus in the 2020s is “unrealistic,” he told TechCrunch.
“Even if it were ready now, and the funding was available now, the time that it takes to build these factories is years. And the fact is, the money isn’t there for it, which is why a lot of these companies have abandoned their plans for commercial-scale factories,” Shapiro said.
For instance, New Age Eats shut down in early 2023, with founder Brian Spears posting on LinkedIn that the company was unable to secure funds to complete its pilot facility. Berkeley-based Upside Foods laid off workers and put plans on hold for a new Chicago-area facility. Israel-based Aleph Farms let go of 30% of its staff in June, also citing difficulties in raising capital.
San Francisco Bay Area-based SCiFi Foods also permanently closed in June. SCiFi CEO Joshua March shared on LinkedIn: “Unfortunately, in this funding environment, we could not raise the capital that we needed to commercialize the SCiFi burger, and SCiFi Foods ran out of time.”
“It’s a really tough time right now, not just for cultivated meat, but any biotech related field,” said Tufts University Professor of Biomedical Engineering David Kaplan. “The economy is in the toilet, the investing funds are not there and people are being very, very cautious these days.”
https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/04/even-after-1-6b-in-vc-money-the-lab-grown-meat-industry-is-facing-massive-issues/
On-demand food delivery saw truly explosive growth during the pandemic. With restaurants closed to in-person dining and takeout’s ability to turn “a lethally depressing Saturday night into a lethally boring Saturday night with pad thai,” as “Last Week Tonight” host John Oliver recently put it, apps like GrubHub and DoorDash experienced a surge of new users and global revenue for the industry skyrocketed from $90 billion in 2018 to $294 billion in 2021.
However, new reports show they still aren’t profitable.
According to a 2024 analysis from the Financial Times, leading online food delivery groups in Europe and the U.S. “have racked up more than $20 [billion] in combined operating losses since they went public,” reportedly leaving investors queasy at the idea of funding more loss. Not only that, but consumer reports indicate customer dissatisfaction with the apps is on the rise, while labor groups continue to decry the ways in which they say the food delivery industry takes advantage of gig economy workers.
Put another way: On-demand food delivery is not working for customers, couriers, restaurants, or even the companies behind the apps themselves. The food delivery bubble is definitely bursting — but maybe that’s not a bad thing.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-delivery-bubble-bursting-maybe-180803384.html
New Zealand scraps clean, green policies to boost economy
New Zealand’s green credentials are at risk as the government rolls back environmental reforms in a bid to boost a flailing economy and fulfil promises made to its voters.
Since taking power last year, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s centre-right coalition announced it will reverse a ban on oil and gas exploration, push the pricing of agricultural emissions back five year and encourage more mining.
This is part of a government shift in priorities towards increasing exports to support an economy that grew just 0.3% in the year to March 2024, its lowest growth for the same period since the pandemic hit in 2020, and that has a current account deficit at 6.8% of GDP.
Exports make up nearly a quarter of New Zealand’s economy.
“The economic situation for me, is arguably the worst of the set of circumstances that I can remember in my adult life,” Resources Minister Shane Jones said.
“So when the opportunity arose to champion the re-emergence of the mineral sector it was driven by quite a brutal understanding of what our economic situation is,” he added.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/new-zealand-scraps-clean-green-policies-to-boost-economy/ar-AA1odZJy
Llanelli was the Parliamentary seat where Reform UK came closest to defeating Labour anywhere in the UK at the general election. It is easy to see why.
As any local resident will tell you, the town’s days of prosperity in what was part of the Welsh industrial heartlands are long behind it.
Following the demise of the town’s steel industry and manufacturing base in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the past four decades have not been kind to Llanelli, as resident Irene Turner says.
“The town has gone to the dogs,” says the retired pharmacy worker. “There’s nothing here for anybody. The shops are shutting, the kids have nowhere to go and all they’re [politicians] are a waste of space.”
Like her husband Gareth, a retired piano factory worker, Irene voted for Reform in the general election, as did many others in the town.
Reform’s candidate Gareth Beer came within a whisker of defeating the incumbent Labour MP Dame Nia Griffith on 4 July, and Irene shares the view of many in the town on another of the reasons why Llanelli almost turned its back on Sir Keir Starmer and his long-serving local MP.
In the end, Griffith just held onto her seat with a reduced majority of just 1,504 votes.
Irene and Gareth believe those asylum seekers should have been sent back to “where they come from” instead of being placed in Llanelli.
“We’re only an island,” she adds. “We can’t afford to have every Tom, Dick and Harry coming in. Nia Griffith, she’s in government, she’s in Westminster but she doesn’t want to know. She talks the talk, but she doesn’t walk the walk.”
Neither Irene or Gareth are angry people. They are friendly, mild-mannered and come across as perfectly reasonable people.
But they feel left behind and forgotten, and they are looking for an alternative to the traditional Westminster parties that they feel have not delivered for them or their town.
Shaun Keenan, a supporter of Voice of Wales, insists it is neither far-right or racist, added that the “majority of [migrants] are dangerous in my eyes”.
“It doesn’t matter who you vote for, the general election is fixed,” he tells i.
“So, I knew she [Griffith] was always going to win. Meantime we’ve still got an open border, we’ve still got an influx of immigrants coming into this country.”
Shaun Keenan, a supporter of Voice of Wales, insists it is neither far-right or racist, added that the “majority of [migrants] are dangerous in my eyes”.
“It doesn’t matter who you vote for, the general election is fixed,” he tells i.
“So, I knew she [Griffith] was always going to win. Meantime we’ve still got an open border, we’ve still got an influx of immigrants coming into this country.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/gone-to-the-dogs-how-desperation-in-llanelli-boosted-reform/ar-AA1oeHgT
“It doesn’t matter who you vote for, the general election is fixed,”
So others are also having this problem. Not surprising, as there is no way the left will surrender power via an election, as we just saw in Venezuela.
As the saying goes: you can’t vote your way out.
I think he’s talking about that screwy ‘first past the post’ system. Labour got 20% of the vote, but won a majority of the parliament. Without that system, Reform would have won 40 seats, they got 5.
Britain belongs to the British.
Opinion: Supervised inhalation is a necessary intervention in the drug poisoning crisis
In order for safe consumption sites to respond effectively to the needs of people who use drugs, they must include the option of indoor supervised inhalation.
All safe consumption sites should receive government funding for supervised inhalation. This way, the growing number of people who inhale substances will be closer to the help they need in case of drug poisoning. They’ll also have access to detox, treatment and other health care and social resources.
Canada is experiencing a toxic drug poisoning crisis, exacerbated by simultaneous mental health and housing crises. Numbers of fatal drug poisonings have increased dramatically since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2023 alone, Canada saw more than 8,000 opioid toxicity deaths. The instability of the street-based drug supply complicates how someone responds to a drug poisoning, contributing to higher fatality rates when people use illicit substances.
In all Canadian safe consumption sites, people can inject, snort and orally consume substances. For years, inhaling substances has been promoted by harm-reduction advocates to help curb the spread of viruses like HIV and hepatitis C. However, few safe consumption sites offer indoor supervised inhalation services, even though the federal exemption through Health Canada allows for it.
There is a significant amount of evidence suggesting people have been inhaling their drugs more than injecting since before the COVID-19 pandemic, that the risk of drug poisoning for inhaling is the same as with injection and that inhaling substances is now contributing to more drug poisonings than injections.
I am a harm reduction worker in a safe consumption site integrated into a low-barrier, overnight drop-in program for women and gender-diverse people experiencing homelessness in Hamilton, Ont. Our program recognizes that the health and social care needs of women and gender-diverse people who use drugs are uniquely impacted by gender, as well as by other facets of their histories and identities.
Traditionally, drug policies and harm-reduction services developed across Canada in response to the toxic drug poisoning crisis have largely been designed, developed and evaluated according to the needs of men.
But women are far more likely to smoke than inject substances. Unfortunately, most safe consumption sites across Canada are not responsive to their needs at this time.
Although the federal government has created a pathway for safe consumption sites to operate, provincial governments have ultimate control over the conditions under which they will fund safe consumption sites. For example, Ontario consumption and treatment services sites do not receive funding to accommodate supervised inhalation from the provincial government.
It’s expensive to invest in the appropriate air filtration, ventilation and exhaust infrastructure needed to prevent substance fumes from affecting people nearby. Furthermore — even though there are a handful of Canadian and international examples for organizations to emulate — investing in safe inhalation requires information about how indoor inhalation intersects or conflicts with workplace health and safety regulations, and provincial smoking laws are not widely available.
Thankfully, financial and political support for supervised inhalation appears to be increasing in some provinces.
https://www.richmond-news.com/highlights/opinion-supervised-inhalation-is-a-necessary-intervention-in-the-drug-poisoning-crisis-9289272
I read somewhere that most pills are safe, effective, and can be manufactured to high standards. There really is no logical reason to do things the way they are being done unless you are trying to destroy certain segments of the population. It’s all so evil.
“recognizes that the health and social care needs of women and gender-diverse people who use drugs are uniquely impacted by gender, as well as by other facets of their histories and identities”
Cut your junk off? Don’t cut your junk off? Prance around in a wig and a dress and push it on kids?
You’re a JUNKIE.
According to UHERO, the median single-family home price in Hawaii increased by 260% from 2000 to 2022.
California’s housing supply has been insufficient to meet demand, leading to significant price increases. While specific data points are not provided, the search results mention that four of the top 10 counties nationwide where home price increases are outpacing wage growth are in California.
Massachusetts’ median home price has increased by over 50% since the start of the pandemic in early 2020, with inventory decreasing by 18.7% between July 2023 and September 2023.
Washington state’s median home price, driven by Seattle’s tech boom, has increased dramatically, with prices in Spokane rising from $185,000 in May 2015 to $371,500 in September 2023.
https://nitter.poast.org/KobeissiLetter/status/1820438281844039760#m:
Stock markets around the world are crashing right now, but why?
The answer to this question is the Yen carry trade, a term you’ll probably hear many times this week.
So what exactly is the Yen carry trade and why did it cause a market downturn?
A thread to explain:
(1/7)
Tell me that someone did NOT just pay this much for a big shack on a 2,627 sq. ft. lot? ROI for the seller is unbelievable. Dumb people with too much money.
08/02/2024 Sold $1,399,000
07/16/2024 Listed $1,399,000
07/11/2018 Sold $675,000
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4420-Carriage-House-Vw_Colorado-Springs_CO_80906_M28058-33995
That lot looks bigger than 2627 sq ft
Is $1 trillion alot?
MarketWatch
Nvidia, Apple propel ‘Magnificent Seven’ to $650 billion market-cap wipeout
Provided by Dow Jones
Aug 5, 2024 3:55pm
By Emily Bary
At intraday lows, the group’s collective market cap was down $1.43 trillion
Monday’s technology-led selloff had been on track to deliver a record erasure of “Magnificent Seven” market capitalization – by a wide margin – but large tech stocks pared losses by the end of the session to avoid that fate.
Shortly after Monday’s open, the grouping of large technology companies knowing as the “Magnificent Seven” was on track to wallop the $744 billion record for one-day loss of market cap that the group set back in July. At intraday lows, the group’s collective market cap was down $1.43 trillion.
But after the stocks recovered, total losses for the day amounted to a bit over $650 billion.
Over the past three sessions, “Magnificent Seven” companies have shed a collective $1.27 trillion in market capitalization.
…
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240805726/nvidia-apple-propel-magnificent-seven-to-650-billion-market-cap-wipeout
‘Over the past three sessions, “Magnificent Seven” companies have shed a collective $1.27 trillion in market capitalization.’
It seems like that is the relevant news. Who cares about one day losses in a market full of dips buyers?
‘said it is currently a buyer’s market because housing inventory is at the highest it has ever been in Bastrop. ‘There’s enough selection out there right now that buyers have the ability to actually negotiate, and they haven’t before’
The article doesn’t say a word about prices but there’s a graph at the link. It’s down in the county and Cedar Creek, which is another Texas sh$thole I’ve never heard of. These shacks have no business selling mid-400k to 550k. It’s a long way to Austin from there.
‘Florida’s public not-for-profit property insurer of last resort is pushing for double-digit rate increases…‘If we keep Citizens rates extremely low, then at the end of the day the taxpayers … get stuck holding the bag’
There’s no free lunch Dan and that market is fooked cuz it’s going to come directly out of some Floridians a$$. Is it still raining?
‘Engineers live by the maxim ‘good planning is preparation for the inevitable.’ The government subsidized National Flood Insurance Program is at cross-purposes with this. The reason private insurers do not write home flood insurance policies is because it is considered a ‘bad bet’ for the insurer. In the end, it’s a lot more than about money. It’s about good planning for an inevitable future versus subsidizing disasters that can be anticipated and mitigated now’
I search Florida shack and airbox info every day. There’s yer tales of woe, foreclosure proceedings. Usually the great bulk of it is how much new crap they are building or scheduling to build, on the water.
‘The agenda of this particular meeting, for instance, included a potential licensing scheme for short-term rentals (STR), a bit of profanity in paradise. The short-term rental boom has also driven up property values, as cottages become seen as assets more than homes, and brought a revolving door of tenants that’s anathema to these close-knit communities…‘I understand, from all the residents here, how tough this is, but I don’t think you understand how drastically different the real estate world has changed,’ said one late-30s cottage owner who operates an STR, and whose family has lived in the area for more than 50 years. ‘There’s no way any younger generation can come in and buy real estate here without renting it out. And quite frankly, we are going to be the ones that buy your cottages at the end. I can’t afford to own this on my own’
STR always over-saturate and eventually fail unless they were built to purpose. It’s obvious what’s happened here. Federal loan guarantees succeeded in lifting prices to the max. Just like here in the US. And they kept lifting the loan limits until it craters.
‘The whole housing situation is a mess. We have thousands of residents struggling to find affordable rents and mortgages. Social housing not keeping pace with need. Yet hundreds of houses have been built. The sites focused on social and affordable housing, however, have stalled and we now have sites with half-finished buildings. Week after week I have residents getting in contact because they cannot afford to live here. But any attempt to build homes for residents results in the estate becoming unviable’
Central planning!
‘When Sid Prakash decided to build a family home in 2018, he did not expect that six years on, it would still be incomplete…‘It was a dream that’s kind of subsequently turned into a nightmare’…For the family of four, the delayed build has meant they’ve had to live with Sid’s parents for the past six years’
Six years, better you than me Sid.
‘Sid says he would never choose to build his own home if he had his time again. ‘Anybody who wants to build a home at the moment, they’re really up for a lot of pain…Consumer protection is lacking, it’s a difficult situation out there.’ Sid’s family do not know when their home build will be finished’
If it’s any consolation, it was still way cheaper than renting.
‘All this has left Ng unsure about the future. ‘It depends on the exact requirements and how much I need to spend to fulfil them,’ she said. ‘If I have to spend another HK$100,000, I will not consider it.’ Engaging professionals to prove her flats met the standards could also be costly. ‘I’ll just leave my property vacant and wait for developers to acquire it. It is not worth it’
It’s the smart move Amy*. It’s going to up in value every day until these bitter renters accept the truth and make you a winnah!
Has anyone else #Noticed that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer looks like Jeb Bush?
#Wanker
The Clash — Safe European Home:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xgwXkULDCs
The Clash — London’s Burning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6XijqjtJoA
Bureaucrats — Grown Up Age:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wicY5twL34
Sex Pistols — Anarchy in the U.K.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K07Yq4zGTcI
Just annoying noise to me.
Are premiums less for Platinum compared to gold or silver?
Speaking Texas German
Texas Historical Commission
6 years ago
German immigrants to Texas brought their language with them, and in some communities, the German Texan language is still spoken. Between 1865 and 1900, about 40,000 Germans arrived in the Lone Star State; the single largest European immigrant group at the time. One of the most significant imports they brought was their culture: an appreciation for classical music and opera; Brahms and the accordion; social traditions like singing societies and biergartens; the German language; a deep belief in the importance of public education and the trades; an abiding love for freedom and equality; and a social fabric that was more about community than the individual.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwgwpUcxch4
3:46. I used to hear this in New Braunfels in the early 1990’s.
our Jr. High School in a town in South Central TX, off I-35, would take a yearly field trip to Natural Bridge Caverns in New Braunfels as a reward if you didn’t act the fool.
if you did, every teacher AND the principle had a paddle. used often. and you didn’t bother whining to mom & dad, unless you wanted another whoopin’ ! Haha
yeah, we didn’t have or need any school “security” in Texas in the 70’s. “Out in the Hall!” for 3 swats cured most discipline problems.
ahh, good times!
Conversation
Project Veritas
@Project_Veritas
🚨 BREAKING: Progressive Democrats Say Muslims Used VOTER FRAUD to Secure Power in Michigan
“These guys go door to door and take people’s ballots. They bully them… intimidate.” – August Gitschlag, Certified Michigan Elections Official
“If everything’s good, we can drop [the ballots] to the City Hall. City Hall has that [ballot] box. We can drop it there.” – Hamtramck Councilman Mohammed Hassan
“This is another thing that you can’t say out loud. The absentee ballots are being filled out in people’s dining rooms by the candidates.” – Karen Majewski, Former Hamtramck Mayor (2006-2021)
#VotesForSale #BallotHarvesting #ElectionFraud
9:21 AM · Aug 5, 2024
https://x.com/Project_Veritas/status/1820450068521996584
These Dems sound heap angry about this. Why don’t they “fortify” the election process in Michigan to avoid this?
SHOCKING !! Migrant Receipt of Benefits Exposed!
936 views Aug 3, 2024
A Bodega cashier in New York City exposes how much free benefits MIGRANTS are getting each month and its mind blowing!
https://youtu.be/tTr9t29VToo?si=Poq90-SGKFoIY6UT
Only one human could make a guitar sing like him.
Bell Bottom Blues (Remastered) · Derek & The Dominos
The Layla Sessions
https://youtu.be/UcYlWEddjYo?si=DB0fXhZiEF8R8kTb
Why not.
Layla · Derek & The Dominos
https://youtu.be/TngViNw2pOo?si=7IfjQf2ZHg50qPp4
Merissa Hansen
@merissahansen17
Jamie Raskin the rascal states they plan on using the 14th amendment on January 6, 2025, to keep Trump out of office if he wins the election.
12:45 PM · Aug 5, 2024
·
https://x.com/merissahansen17/status/1820501337383244286
Yeah right. Who cares what the people want?
From many things I’ve seen and heard, Jamie’s father, Marcus, was a Marxist.
Susan Crabtree
@susancrabtree
🚨🚨🚨EXCLUSIVE: Former Secret Service Chief Cheatle Wanted To DESTROY COCAINE EVIDENCE According to Three Sources in the Secret Service Community.
👉👉New details emerge about the unsolved cocaine mystery, a “partial DNA hit” and Secret Service leaders’ bungled efforts to make it all disappear.
‼️ And, did Cheatle and others retaliate against a top official in the Secret Service’s Uniformed Division over his refusal to go along with their push to dispose of the cocaine?
https://realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/08/05/former_secret_service_chief_wanted_to_destroy_cocaine_evidence_151392.html
12:07 PM · Aug 5, 2024
·
https://x.com/susancrabtree/status/1820491749577588794
Did you fall for the AI hype?
So long as everyone else is on board and remains calm, all is well.
Tech stock sell-off may herald the long-awaited AI reckoning
Hasan Chowdhury
Aug 5, 2024, 11:26 AM ET
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on stage in San Jose, California.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
– A reckoning is coming for the artificial intelligence boom.
– Tech stocks have enjoyed huge rallies this year but now face an aggressive sell-off.
– Investors fear that returns will struggle to match the hype behind the technology.
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-boom-faces-crash-landing-stock-market-selloff-nvidia-microsoft-2024-8
Animal House – Remain Calm, All is Well!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wWBiLeVy45k
Whazzup with the yield curve?
U.S. Markets
Yields rebound, curve inverts again after brief positive shift
By Karen Brettell
August 5, 2024 12:45 PM PDT
Updated 7 hours ago
NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury yields rebounded from one-year lows on Monday on greater optimism over the U.S. economy and a closely watched part of the yield curve reinverted, after briefly turning positive for the first time in two years.
Yields tumbled earlier on Monday on recession fears, following an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate and fewer than expected job gains in July’s employment report on Friday.
That caused a rapid repricing of expectations on when and how far the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
But yields rose off their lows after Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that the jobs data does not indicate a recession, while noting that Fed policymakers must carefully monitor changes in the U.S. economy to avoid being too restrictive with interest rates.
Goolsbee is “notably the most dovish member for quite some time at the Fed and he didn’t suggest that there was any real alarm,” said James Knightley, chief international economist, US at ING.
…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/economic-fears-send-yields-one-year-lows-210-curve-turns-positive-2024-08-05/
Why does every risk asset gambler hate a bond rally?
The S&P 500 is down 7.5%—but if you’re worried about it, ‘you shouldn’t own stocks,’ says Warren Buffett
Published Mon, Aug 5 2024 12:39 PM EDT
Ryan Ermey
Warren Buffett walks the floor and meets with Berkshire Hathaway shareholders ahead of their annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3rd, 2024.
David A. Grogan
U.S. stocks fell sharply Monday as part of a global selloff fueled by mounting recession fears among investors.
The turmoil seems to have begun on Friday following the release of a disappointing July jobs report, which fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve has moved too slowly to cut interest rates — a move meant to alleviate some pressure on the economy. Further roiling global markets is unusual currency trading out of Japan.
The S&P 500 — a measure of the broad U.S. stock market — was down about 2% in early trading, putting it 7.5% below the index’s all-time high close on July 16. Further declines would put stocks in the territory of a correction, defined as a decline of 10% or more from the market’s peak. Notably, the S&P is still up 10.5% since the start of the year.
Fueling investor suspicion about the strength of the market: Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway disclosed over the weekend a divestiture of about half of its holding in Apple stock and an ample holding of safe-haven Treasury bills.
Unloading a hot tech stock and holding bonds? Is the Oracle of Omaha trying to tell us the end of the bull market is near?
If you’re a long-term investor, it doesn’t really matter. In fact, you’d be wise to ignore short-term ups and downs in the stock market altogether — at least according to Buffett.
“If you’re worried about corrections, you shouldn’t own stocks,” Buffett said in a 2015 interview with The Street.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/08/05/warren-buffett-dont-worry-about-stock-market-corrections.html
Global Bond Rally Accelerates as Market Bets on Big Rate Cuts
Alice Gledhill
Mon, Aug 5, 2024, 7:19 AM PDT
4 min read
(Bloomberg) — Global bonds rallied as traders bet the Federal Reserve and fellow central banks will turn more aggressive in cutting interest rates amid mounting signs that economic growth is faltering more quickly than expected just weeks ago.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-bonds-erase-loss-us-012744479.html