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I’m Going To Take My Losses Now And Get Out With Whatever I Can

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The Austin housing market has seen a drastic change in the last five years. It is now balancing itself out after homes were selling at an unsustainable rate just a few years ago. Homeowner Mark Mata has lived in his home with his family for eight years. He says selling right now has come with its challenges, like trying to please potential buyers. ‘They (the buyers) can ask for more things than they could have a year ago.’ He said he is selling for less than he would have liked. ‘If we would have sold a year ago, it would have been like 100 to 120 more than what’s on the market now,’ he said.”

“An Eagle homebuilder was sentenced on a felony forgery charge. Kerry Angelos, 62, pleaded guilty at an Aug. 6 hearing to forging the signatures of two Eagle residents, his clients at the time, without their knowledge to obtain a construction loan to build their dream home. He pursued the loan despite previously indicating to them that he didn’t want to work with a bank or get a traditional construction loan. On Tuesday, 4th District Judge Cynthia Yee-Wallace in Boise ordered Angelos to pay $400,000 in restitution to Jay and Julene Quinlan as part of a plea deal. Jay Quinlan said in a statement before the court that Angelos’ actions caused the family to lose its lifelong savings, and resulted in lost time with their children and emotional distress. ‘The defendant’s actions were not just a financial crime — they shattered our sense of security and trust in others,’ Quinlan said.”

“Mounds of sand swallowing their homes? That’s the reality for some after Hurricanes Helene and Milton clobbered Florida’s Gulf Coast with back-to-back hits in less than two weeks. Ron and Jean Dyer said the storms blew about 3 feet (0.9 meters) of sand up against their condo building on Venice Island. ‘The beach just moved over everything,’ Ron Dyer said. Storm recovery contractor Larry West estimates that his team will do about $300,000 worth of work just to clean up all the sand and debris left behind at one of the condo buildings he’s restoring in Manasota Key. He expects many property owners, especially those who don’t have flood insurance, will have to pay out of pocket for this kind of cleanup. ‘The poor homeowner who’s going to have to spend $150,000 cleaning up, that’s going to hurt them hard,’ West said.”

“A bill aimed at freeing up unused housing space on Oahu is getting closer to becoming law. Bill 46 would add a 3% tax for every vacant dwelling unit on a residential property. ‘Our dream was to purchase a second home in Mokuleia to use and to leave a legacy property for our children and grandchildren for future enjoyment,’ said one Oahu resident. ‘We will now have to pay $100,000 per year to keep the home.'”

“Squatters have taken over a home in an Atlanta suburb on a property owned by a rent-to-own real estate company. Mykah Richard, a member of the homeowners association at the Villas at Camp Creek in South Fulton, told Fox Atlanta the squatters moved into a home and have disrupted the quality of life in the area. ‘We’ve had very aggressive fights in the middle of the night. We’ve had large parties, liquor bottles and trash being left in our community,’ Richard said. Residents told authorities the squatters have occupied the home for the past year and a half, police said. In May, authorities evicted squatters who had been living in the home since October 2023, the report states. There was another eviction last summer, and the most recent group of squatters reportedly moved in in late August. ‘It’s a problem, and it’s at this same location,’ Richard said.”

“Logan Browne thought he already experienced sticker shock from his Bushwick condo building’s insurance rate tripling last year. Then, this summer, the insurance company dropped the building, citing a ‘loss ratio’ that Browne, the condo board president, said related to water damage claims in 2020 and 2023 after heavy rainfall flooded the basement. As a result of insurance costs alone, each apartment’s common charges nearly doubled this year. ‘We’re getting to the point where we’re having to make assessments for the building every few months just to keep up the funding,’ Browne said. ‘I hope it doesn’t come to a point where someone can’t afford the assessment.'”

“Home sales slowed in September in San Diego County and across the state, the California Association of Realtors announced Thursday. ‘The inventory of homes for sale has steadily improved in recent months as the market moves into the typical off-peak home-buying season,’ the association’s President Melanie Barker said in a statement. ‘With home prices likely to moderate further in the coming months, the fourth quarter could offer an opportunity for potential buyers who have been waiting to re-enter the market, especially as interest rates gradually return to historical averages.'”

“The Philadelphia Housing Authority has been ramping up a campaign to get more voucher holders into higher income areas of the city. Why are developers suddenly interested in vouchers? ‘We are seeing a significant shift,’ said Kelvin Jeremiah, PHA’s president. ‘The [abundant] supply is one factor. But I think the primary factor has been that PHA is paying a market-rate rent.’ ‘A lot of owners are having a hard time depending on where they’re located, especially in Fishtown or Kensington,’ said Harrison Finberg, principal with Fairhill Property Group, who began courting voucher holders in 2022. ‘I know people who have buildings in those areas whose business plan probably wouldn’t have worked if they were only relying on market tenants last year, because of the COVID glut of units. There’s a big difference between conceivably accepting someone who comes to you, versus actively marketing to that segment of the market — which is what’s happening now.'”

“Brandywine Realty Trust is looking for the exits on its 4.5M SF D.C.-area office portfolio. The Philadelphia-based REIT plans to offload its properties, except for some land, in the area over the next few years, the Philadelphia Business Journal reported. Brandywine CEO Jerry Sweeney said the market, once Brandywine’s biggest, has been bitten by the the federal workforce’s stalled return to office, calling the lack of progress a ‘killer.’ ‘Our capital costs combined with net effective rents just made me conclude we got to get out of the market,’ Sweeney said.”

“Bawelaya Isho is ready to end his foray into real estate investing. The 28-year-old car mechanic became a landlord two years ago, paying C$600,000 ($436,000) for a two-bedroom condo in the small but fast-growing city of Barrie, about an hour north of where he lives in Toronto’s suburbs. It’s been costing him about C$1,600 every month because his mortgage payments spiked with higher interest rates, outpacing what he can charge in rent. ‘I was in the red pretty deep, but I was trying to focus on, ‘Let’s hold on to this place and maybe in a couple of years I can make some money and flip it,’ Isho said. But though rates are finally falling, he’s had enough of bleeding cash every month. He plans to list the property this month for about C$80,000 less than he paid. ‘I’m going to take my losses now and get out with whatever I can,’ he said.”

“Smaller landlords have come to account for nearly a third of all mortgaged purchases, and lower rents make it harder for these owners to hold on. ‘The tenants really have the power,’ said Danielle Levy, a Toronto-area real estate broker who is currently working with five renter clients looking to move in search of better deals. ‘Right now people are trying to move out from those places from last year to get cheaper rents.'”

“‘Investors are looking to sell,’ said Shaun Hildebrand, Urbanation’s president. ‘You have all this supply coming in, most of it is investor-owned, and it’s hitting the market all at once.’ Tegiola Xhemalaj and her brother have been renting through their property company. They bought the home in the city of Mississauga, Ontario with a plan to knock it down and replace it with something new. But skyrocketing interest rates made that impossible, and even renting out the property left the siblings almost C$3,400 in the hole each month. So when their tenant moved out earlier this year, they decided to sell. ‘We couldn’t justify financially to lose that much money every month,’ Xhemalaj said. ‘It made a lot more sense for us to get rid of this property.'”

“The daily newsletter I get from a stock market analyst reported that ‘According to Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC), there is now an oversupply of 29 months’ worth of condominium units in Metro Manila.’ LPC said ‘there are currently 67,600 units across 510 actively selling buildings in Metro Manila, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic. Quezon City has the biggest number of available units with 18,500; followed by Ortigas with 13,500; the Bay Area in Pasay with 10,500; Manila with 8,500; and Caloocan with 8,100.’ I assume the inventory will be higher after December 31, the day POGOs are supposed to close according to BBM’s order.”

“A condo glut is inevitable. Property developers remind me of the ‘hot pandesal’ craze when I was growing up. When someone puts up a hot pandesal business in a neighborhood, two or three more will do the same. Property developers are not thinking of an end user occupying those units when they build them. Condos are being built and sold as a place to park excess cash. The current oversupply being reported by Leechiu is not surprising. The spam messages I keep getting from property sales agents trying to sell me a condo unit sound desperate. I had Sunday lunch at Estancia at Capitol Commons in Pasig and sales agents were trying hard to interest me in ‘investing’ in Ortigas condo units across the street.”

“As we were driving around the Bay area last Saturday for lunch at the Hyatt in City of Dreams, I was astounded by the large number of residential condo units being built but with construction seemingly at a standstill. Who is going to buy all of those units once completed? I am reminded of the ghost cities of China created by property developers who built similar condo buildings with no regard to who will buy them and live there.”

“One of Australia‘s most high-profile strata management firms, Netstrata, has been quietly dumping years of past insurance invoices into its clients’ online portals. For the first time, apartment owners can see how much they have paid in brokerage fees to Netstrata’s insurance arm. In some cases the fees are as high as six times the typical industry rate. Kerrie Hutchinson’s Sutherland unit block was previously charged a brokerage fee of 148 per cent of the base insurance premium. A typical ‘fee for service’ brokerage fee equates to 20 to 25 per cent of the base premium, according to industry experts. ‘My jaw was hanging off. I couldn’t believe it,’ she said.”

“Alison Steele’s Camperdown complex paid brokerage fees as high as 115 per cent of the base premium. Ms Steele, who is the treasurer of her strata committee, said it felt like a ‘real betrayal of trust.’ ‘These people are meant to be managing for us, not ripping us off,’ she said.”

“China’s home prices fell by the most in nine years in September, extending a decline for the 16th consecutive month and underscoring the challenges to revive the sector despite a top government official saying that the market has started to ‘bottom out’ following a slew of supportive measures. New home prices dropped 6.1 per cent across 70 mainland cities from a year earlier, the biggest decline since May 2015. The decline expanded from a 5.7 per cent slump in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday. ‘The housing market is experiencing a deep adjustment, as a ‘bottom’ is being formed gradually through three years of overcorrection,’ said Yan Yuejin, vice-president of Shanghai-based E-House China Real Estate Research Institute.”

“Sales at the nation’s top 100 home builders in the first nine months of the year fell 38.8 per cent from a year earlier, according to data published this month by the China Index Academy.”

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This Post Has 102 Comments

  2. ‘We’re getting to the point where we’re having to make assessments for the building every few months just to keep up the funding,’ Browne said. ‘I hope it doesn’t come to a point where someone can’t afford the assessment’

    Logan lives in one of the many NYC sh$tholes.

  3. “I hope it doesn’t come to a point where someone can’t afford the assessment”

    At least it was cheaper than renting.

  4. “He plans to list the property this month for about C$80,000 less than he paid. ‘I’m going to take my losses now and get out with whatever I can,’ he said.”

    A whole new generation getting schooled on the fact that you can lose in real estate.

  5. ‘Ron and Jean Dyer said the storms blew about 3 feet (0.9 meters) of sand up against their condo building on Venice Island. ‘The beach just moved over everything’

    Sand on beaches is constantly moving. Especially on these little sand bars. Ron and Jean could have seen the sand move out from under their airbox and died in a pile of concrete rubble, you never know.

    2. Venice Island was a barrier island like thousands of others long before developers came along.
      For eons, sands shifted, barrier islands changed shape and size, and some appeared and others disappeared completely. Nature just doing it’s thing. Then developers came along and built on the shifting sands and people invested much money (an item unknown by nature) and suddenly wanted everything to remain the same!
      Then on occasion, nature forcefully reasserts it’s control!
      Not to worry, FEMA and government should be here to help you reclaim your investment, silly as it was.

      1. …like a foolish man who built his house on the sand.

        Matthew 7:26

        Speaks to more than building on sand bars.

  6. ‘Why are developers suddenly interested in vouchers? ‘We are seeing a significant shift,’ said Kelvin Jeremiah, PHA’s president. ‘The [abundant] supply is one factor. But I think the primary factor has been that PHA is paying a market-rate rent.’ ‘A lot of owners are having a hard time depending on where they’re located, especially in Fishtown or Kensington,’ said Harrison Finberg, principal with Fairhill Property Group, who began courting voucher holders in 2022. ‘I know people who have buildings in those areas whose business plan probably wouldn’t have worked if they were only relying on market tenants last year, because of the COVID glut of units. There’s a big difference between conceivably accepting someone who comes to you, versus actively marketing to that segment of the market — which is what’s happening now’

    So yer begging fer section 8 renters in new airboxes. Wa happened to my shortage Harry?

  7. ‘The tenants really have the power,’ said Danielle Levy, a Toronto-area real estate broker who is currently working with five renter clients looking to move in search of better deals. ‘Right now people are trying to move out from those places from last year to get cheaper rents’

    That’s the spirit bitter renters, play these broke a$$ loanowners against each other!

  8. Do you worry about the prospect of getting caught out long in the extremely overvalued stock market at the point when the long overdue correction finally arrives?

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Business Insider
      Billionaire investor David Einhorn says Warren Buffett’s recent stock sales show just how overvalued the market is
      Filip De Mott
      Updated Thu, Oct 17, 2024, 4:04 AM PDT
      3 min read
      David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital.
      Brendan McDermid/ Reuters

      – The stock market is the most expensive it’s been in decades, the billionaire David Einhorn says.

      – His firm, Greenlight Capital, said Warren Buffett’s stock sales show now isn’t the time for high equity exposure.

      – Greenlight said even non-tech stocks were trading 30 to 50 times earnings.

      Investors are fueling what looks like the most expensive stock market in decades, the billionaire investor David Einhorn wrote in his hedge fund’s quarterly letter. Just consider the fact that Warren Buffett is cashing out of the bull run, it said.

      The Greenlight Capital letter said equities were the most overvalued since the firm’s founding in 1996.

      Now is probably not a good time for high equity exposure, the fund added, citing Buffett’s stock sales to make this point.

      “While Mr. Buffett routinely points out that it is impossible to time the market, we can’t help but observe that he has been one of the best market timers we have ever seen,” Greenlight said.

      The famed Berkshire Hathaway investor has been slashing equity positions and electing to hold cash on the sidelines. By mid-August, Buffett had garnered a record cash pile of $189 billion, and he has since continued to take profits on successful stocks.

      Though Greenlight didn’t interpret Buffett’s actions as a prediction of a coming crash, it noted that the “Oracle of Omaha” has a talent for reducing exposure at the right time. For instance, the letter said, Buffett closed his fund before the market became too frothy in the 1960s and sold off his holdings ahead of the 1987 crash.

      “One could argue that sitting out bear markets has been the underappreciated reason for his outstanding long-term returns,” the letter said. “It is therefore noteworthy to observe that Mr. Buffett is again selling large swaths of his stock portfolio and building enormous cash reserves.”
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-david-einhorn-says-232814929.html

    2. So much is fake. When it goes badly who knows. Deficit so high already and no one seems to care

    3. Any thoughts on what the latest bear steepening of the Treasury yield curve portends for stocks?

        1. But increasing long-term Treasury yields suggest bond vigalante skepticism that inflation is contained…

          2. Yellen the Felon at Treasury is issuing new debt that the Fed is buying with created-out-of-thin-air funny money to keep rates artificially suppressed to levitate the Fed’s asset bubbles & Ponzi markets. That works until it doesn’t. It’s also massively inflationary, but that’ll be the next administration’s problem.

          3. It’s also massively inflationary

            No, no, no!

            The Narrative is that inflation is caused by price gouging!

    4. Yahoo Finance
      Business Insider
      The US risks being caught off-guard by a recession with the labor market far weaker than most realize, strategist says
      Filip De Mott
      Updated Wed, Oct 16, 2024, 5:32 AM PDT
      Photo of Wall Street with huge US flags
      Spencer Platt/Getty Images

      – Wall Street should still be watching out for a possible recession, said strategist Paul Dietrich.

      – He says unemployment is worse than many seem to think at present time.

      – If temporary government jobs were removed from the lastjobs report, unemployment would be 4.5%, Dietrich said.

      The US is riding high, but one strategist says economic optimism will eventually be cut short as unseen labor weakness bites.

      That’s according to Paul Dietrich, who warned that employment conditions are worse than analysts seem to grasp.

      “Eventually, the US economy will fall into a recession, catching off-guard the Fed, the US administration, and the majority of economists and analysts,” Dietrich wrote.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-risks-being-caught-off-210005086.html

      1. “…catching off-guard the Fed, the US administration, and the majority of economists and analysts,…”

        This stopped clock bear and cargo cultist will not be caught off guard.

        1. Peerless prognosticator Yellen the Felon assured us in 2017 that there would be no new financial crisis “in our time.” So as long as Old Yellen is still with us, our Strongest Economy Ever per Paul Krugman will keep being a perpetual wealth machine (for the .1%).

  9. “The Austin housing market has seen a drastic change in the last five years. It is now balancing itself out after homes were selling at an unsustainable rate just a few years ago.

    Real estate offices are being inundated with letters of gratitude from would-be FOMO buyers who dodged a bullet during the scamdemic-era housing market run-up after their realtors advised them that buying into an unsustainable housing bubble blown up by the Fed’s gusher of funny money “stimulus” would be a disastrous financial mistake.

    Oh, wait….

  10. ‘The poor homeowner who’s going to have to spend $150,000 cleaning up, that’s going to hurt them hard,’ West said.”

    What if the tropical storms and hurricanes just keep coming? This isn’t going to be an extraordinary one-time expense.

  11. Section 8 renters ,as noted above ,are a bad idea ,no matter what …..They will end up trashing everything in sight…..The recent prolonged power outages , storm related ,in Upstate SC , where we live , clearly showed that good folks will continue to “Be good”, when the power goes out for several weeks , and bad folks will evolve into even worse folks, as time goes on…..
    If I lived anywhere close to the marginal areas , certainly within walking distances , I would sell,give my house away ,etc. ,give it back to the bank, whatever it takes,to get far away before any next episode strikes…..as it will …

  12. “A bill aimed at freeing up unused housing space on Oahu is getting closer to becoming law. Bill 46 would add a 3% tax for every vacant dwelling unit on a residential property.

    This needs to happen in every U.S. municipality to drive the speculator scum out of residential housing markets.

      1. That’s certainly part of it, considering the mortgage interest deduction and the $500K capital gains tax exclusion on the sale of a primary residence.

    2. we are in a good area on Honolulu (Kakakko/Ward Village) with many nice condo buildings. At night, 75%+ are dark – they are mostly vacation homes for the immediate family and others they let use.

      I think that the owners can afford the 3% – but i think that they will be super pissed about paying it. One S.Korean in my building are going to say that his wife lives here full time and he is in Seoul – but in reality they are here together 3 months of the year and back in their hometown 9 months a year.

      1. They need a rat line so residents can report skyboxes & shacks that are obviously vacant for enforcement action, despite what the owners claim.

  13. ‘Our dream was to purchase a second home in Mokuleia to use and to leave a legacy property for our children and grandchildren for future enjoyment,’ said one Oahu resident. ‘We will now have to pay $100,000 per year to keep the home.’”

    Die, speculator scum.

    1. ‘We will now have to pay $100,000 per year to keep the home.’

      Such a meager sum to pay for pride of ownership…

  14. ‘I was in the red pretty deep, but I was trying to focus on, ‘Let’s hold on to this place and maybe in a couple of years I can make some money and flip it,’ Isho said. But though rates are finally falling, he’s had enough of bleeding cash every month.

    I love the smell of burning housing speculators in the morning. It smells like…victory.

    1. A shack purchase in Phoenix should come with night vision goggles so you can take a walk when the temperature is bearable.

  17. A reader sent these in:

    Metro Denver witnessed record high office availability in the third quarter of 29.9%.

    Downtown availability stood just shy of 40.0%.

    Just completed $400M 720,000 SF tower at 1900 Lawrence remains more than 90% available.

    https://x.com/FCNightingale/status/1846732304338518430

    Elon Musk fired 90% of Twitter’s work force and it’s still functioning perfectly.

    Government employees:

    https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/1846637199359349094

    Wait, what?

    You mean our own eyes and ears were correct after all?

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1846577380812353967

    Only 31% of Americans say they have a great deal or fair amount of trust in mass media, a record low.

    https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1846576256084512835

    Team Harris releases statement after Fox News interview 🤣🤣🤣

    https://x.com/TheRicanMemes/status/1846690564231647323

    Another reminder:

    https://x.com/SallyMayweather/status/1846674697674436717

    do you think Kamala will go back to being Indian after she loses?

    https://x.com/SallyMayweather/status/1846368516514967693

    Pork Belly Flop

    https://x.com/InmanGoneWild/status/1846216577295044894

    Instant Car-ma

    https://x.com/SteveInmanUIC/status/1846179660645974116

    Smartphones & Dumb People

    https://x.com/SteveInmanUIC/status/1846123624098373956

    Some people in North Carolina are living in tents after losing their homes in Helene.

    https://x.com/accuweather/status/1846649872453455944

    “Half of 🇨🇦 are eating less to cope with skyrocketing costs, as inflation drives harsh new realities.”

    51% of 🇨🇦 have changed spending habits to survive rising costs.

    28% are cutting back on food just to save money.

    44% have stopped dining out or ordering takeout altogether.

    https://x.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1846684937669234775

    Consumer confidence, per University of Michigan, at September 2008 levels.

    *Time stamp this cover.

    https://x.com/Convertbond/status/1846949064149291079

    $500 billion in debt added in the last 15 days.

    Pulling out all of the stops for an election – truly disgusting fiscal insanity.

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1847007030302986686

    Turbo charged right in front of the election mind you…

    https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1846981060535394533

    And YOU get $200 & YOU get $200…… Premier Ford Becomes Oprah: Buying Votes Costs Over $3B Now

    Has the Provincial Government lost it’s mind?

    Look, I get many of us pay too much tax but this is just nuts

    BTW a big chunk of this $3.4B is BORROWED!

    Yeah deficit bribery

    https://x.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1846892703469940983

    US mortgage applications have dropped by 17.0% over the last week, the most since April 2020.

    At the same time, the refinancing index fell by 26.3%, posting the biggest decline since March 2020.

    This comes after mortgage rates have increased for the third straight week, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 6.52%, the highest since August.

    On top of that, the mortgage purchase applications recorded its worst September since 1994.

    As a result, the mortgage demand index is down ~60% since the January 2021 peak and sits at near the lowest level in 29 years.

    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1846942676068749456

    With a market cap of $3.4 trillion, Nvidia is trying to catch the entire value of Japan’s Nikkei 225 index.

    https://x.com/JeffWeniger/status/1847023278742749268

    Home insurers are arguing for a 42% average rate hike in North Carolina after the hurricanes, per AP.

    https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1846918337395106293

    Shanghai and Hang Seng indexes. 👇🏼 Got MORE stimulus?

    https://x.com/MauiBoyMacro/status/1846964840977650152

    This guy is just incredible at losing money

    https://x.com/PikerCapital/status/1847030095036236154

    Greedy landlords are losing their power.

    Rents are flat but payments are going up as they renew at higher mortgage rates.

    This is why the market is being flooded with listings – they’re all trying to get out.

    2025 is gonna be a bloodbath for “investors”.

    https://x.com/igetredpilled/status/1847038364878320016

    Total Credit Card Debt hits new all-time high of $1.14 Trillion! Congrats everyone, we did it 🫡 🫂

    https://x.com/Barchart/status/1847086100034077056

    Average US family health insurance premium…
    2000: $6k
    2003: $9k
    2006: $11k
    2009: $13k
    2012: $16k
    2015: $18k
    2018: $20k
    2021: $22k
    2024: $26k

    That’s a 342% increase since 1999 (6.1% per year).

    (Note: US CPI inflation has increased 2.5%/year)

    https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1846976199383568642

    My neighbor just told me that he went all-in long on $NVDA here today for his retirement

    https://x.com/2kaykim/status/1846952259206500788

    Market:

    Housing is out of whack. Prices must come down. Fed can no longer intervene via MBS purchase to drive rates down.

    Fed:

    https://x.com/brawndoadvisors/status/1846627102923145668

    Who’s building these things 👀🤦‍♂️

    https://x.com/ClownWorld_/status/1847073206605434937

    Tell that to the small businesses crushed by inflation and high taxes. Your plan isn’t helping them survive.

    https://x.com/ClownWorld_/status/1846933143846375655

    Multiple billboards in Chicago were hacked

    https://x.com/ClownWorld_/status/1846732333719998522

  18. Ocean freight rates from China set to weaken amid waning demand, overcapacity

    The outlook is bleak in the next two months as Chinese exports cool and the industry adds record new capacity in 2024

    Ocean freight rates for goods leaving Chinese ports are expected to drop further in the next two months amid a glut of container vessels. China’s slowing exports could also weaken demand.

    The outlook for the shipping industry is clouded by uncertainties created by heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns about recession in some parts of the global economy, Cai Huixing, president of Shanghai Shipowners’ Association, said in a media briefing on Thursday.

    “The fourth-quarter is normally a low season for ocean freight,” he said. “We expect shipping rates to slump. As shipowners take actions to tackle the overcapacity problem, the rates are likely to rebound in 2025.”

    The cost of shipping a 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) container from Shanghai to Europe has weakened from more than US$5,000 in July. Exporters had front-loaded shipments for the -holiday season to pre-empt US tariff hikes and avoid disruptions in the Red Sea following attacks on ships by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

    Cai’s remarks echoed forecasts earlier this week by global freight booking platform Freightos that ocean carriers would have to brave rough seas through end-2024 given depressed freight rates. Still, the threat of wider war in the Middle East could push container freight rates higher.

    “Trans-Pacific ocean rates are now 30 per cent below their July peaks,” Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said in a research note on Tuesday. “With the early end to peak season, we should expect rates to continue easing.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/other/ocean-freight-rates-from-china-set-to-weaken-amid-waning-demand-overcapacity/ar-AA1ssGeS

    1. I seem to recall predictions that once China grew an internal market that they would no longer be dependent on exports.

      1. ABQ Dan predicted that before his self-exile to Butthurt Island to escape the HBB calling him out over his rosy but wrong China forecasts.

  19. Canada’s dairy farms dump 7 per cent of all milk produced, study contends

    Canada’s dairy industry discarded approximately 7 per cent of all milk it produced over a 10-year period, according to a new estimate, as part of a supply management system that is designed to control output and keep prices stable.

    In a paper recently published in the Ecological Economics journal, the authors teamed up to calculate how much milk dairy farmers dispose of. They determined that more than 6.8 billion litres of raw milk – and possibly as much as 10 billion litres – disappeared from Canadian farms between 2012 and 2021, worth at least $6.7-billion.

    “If you’re wasting 7 per cent of the milk you produce, well, logically, you can only come to the conclusion that milk is too expensive in Canada,” Sylvain Charlebois, a Dalhousie University professor and one of the study’s authors, said in an interview. “That’s why it’s been taboo for dairy farmers. They don’t want to talk about it.”

    Whereas prices for most commodities are set in competitive markets, milk prices in Canada are set in a supply management system that is intended to ensure stable income for farmers while supporting a domestic supply of milk and butterfat. Production quotas are set based on monthly market analysis. According to the Canadian Dairy Commission’s website, “costly surpluses can be avoided by controlling production effectively.”

    The CDC contested the new paper’s data and assumptions, adding that when milk cannot be processed owing to unforeseen circumstances, producers will often send it to other provinces, donate it to food banks or feed it to calves.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadas-dairy-farms-dump-7-per-cent-of-all-milk-produced-study/

      1. It might be less costly than processing the milk into cheese, then storing it indefinitely in a cave.

        Or, heaven forbid, turning it into powdered milk and sending it to poor countries as foreign aid.

  20. Volkswagen’s state-of-the-art EV plant is on the brink of collapse

    People are angry, cars aren’t selling, and now for the first time ever Volkswagen is likely to close one of its factories in Europe – the state-of-the-art Brussels plant that makes the Audi Q8 E-Tron.

    Back in September, Volkswagen-owned Audi said that it wanted to stop production on the Q8 E-Tron – an €80,000 electric SUV that barely anyone in Europe can afford – and put the factory up for sale. Meanwhile, VW has been looking for investors or other workarounds, with the company now saying that none of the 26 interested parties offered any viable solutions for the future of the plant, as reported by Automotive News Europe.

    For one, we can’t overlook the dismal sales numbers for the Q8 E-Tron, with the 120,000-vehicle-capacity plant reaching its peak in 2022 with 47,900 cars, compared to 37,400 Q8 E-Trons last year. This year, Audi has delivered 23,900 vehicles.

    But other issues have also plagued the Belgian plant. For one, it is located on a railway line, making expansion impossible, and there is no body shop on site, meaning imported body components have to be supplied from other plants. The successor to the Q8 be made in Mexico, and Audi doesn’t plan to move any new models to the Belgian plant.

    The 3,000 factory workers employed there will likely lose their jobs, which is stirring up pushback from unions that argue that the company is too resistant to consider other offers. “The only thing they want to do is close the plant as quickly as possible.,” said Ronny Liedts of the ACV-CSC union, as quoted in Automotive News Europe. “None of the alternatives work for them.”

    https://electrek.co/2024/10/17/volkswagens-state-of-the-art-ev-plant-is-on-the-brink-of-collapse/

    1. The successor to the Q8 be made in Mexico

      Paying 100 grand for a car made in Mexico has long been on my bucket list. /sarc

  21. Why young Kiwis leaving is a big worry for the economy

    Keeping young New Zealanders in the country – or encouraging them back when they leave – will be vital to help the country balance the books in the future.

    But economists say offering them a tax cut, as Portugal is, is unlikely to be the solution.

    The Portuguese government is cutting taxes for people under 35 to encourage locals to stay and young migrants to move to Portugal.

    It is one of many countries around the world facing an older population becoming more expensive, while at the same time the working age population paying the bills grows smaller.

    It was an issue highlighted by Dominick Stephens, chief economic adviser at Treasury, in a speech recently.

    He pointed out that in the 1960s there were seven people aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 and over. Now, there are four and in 50 years there will be about two.

    He said it would be important for New Zealand that future generations remained willing to support their elders.

    “Taking early action to manage the fiscal burden on younger generations will also encourage our best workers to stay in New Zealand, and will help us attract the most skilled migrants, boosting productivity and prosperity.”

    The number of people leaving New Zealand has reached record levels this year, and the bulk have been aged 25 to 34.

    Shamubeel Eaqub, an independent economist, said there was a risk that the population could become “lopsided” before long if the younger population was not maintained.

    He said it could not be assumed that young people would be called on to pay for the increasing needs of the population.

    “Because of the ageing population, declining fertility, the current setup is a Ponzi scheme relying entirely on people aged 30 to 60 to pay tax to pay for all the promises made to everyone.

    “The promises are weighted towards older people – we are going to be spending all the taxes from work on just super and health in the not-too-distant future.

    “That’s not a reasonable place to start from. You cannot come to me and tell me that when my children are working, all the tax they pay from their work is going to be spent entirely on the old people who chose not to save for themselves.”

    “Young people won’t allow all their money to go to older people. The politics will become very toxic because the promises that people have made to their future selves – but didn’t choose to do anything about – those promises will be broken because there’s no way we can have a situation where your taxes will pay for my healthcare and super but not your children’s education or your health.”

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/531136/why-young-kiwis-leaving-is-a-big-worry-for-the-economy

  22. Helene and Milton are both likely to be $50 billion disasters, joining ranks of most costly storms

    Karen Clark and Company, a disaster modeling firm that uses computer simulations superimposed on storm and insurance data, wouldn’t give total damage estimates for the storms. But the company figured insured losses alone were $36 billion for Milton and $6.4 billion for Helene.

    And when it comes to flood insurance, many homeowners in risky areas find it’s too expensive, so they don’t buy it, Clark said. But when a storm hits them, she said “all of us as taxpayers, we’re going to pay it because we know there are going to be federal dollars coming into those areas to help people rebuild. So all taxpayers, we’re actually paying for people to live in risky areas.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/helene-and-milton-are-both-likely-to-be-50-billion-disasters-joining-ranks-of-most-costly-storms/ar-AA1soNRj

  23. Support for Immigration in Canada Plunges to Lowest in Decades

    Canadians haven’t felt this strongly opposed to immigration levels in a quarter century, a turnaround of attitude in a country that once embraced newcomers but has been shaken by a post-pandemic influx.

    Nearly six in 10 people now agree “there’s too much immigration to Canada,” according to the country’s longest-running survey on the topic by the Environics Institute. It’s the first time since 1998 that this view is held by a clear majority, and a stark shift from favorable opinion over the past two decades.

    The poll reflects further erosion of public support for immigration, with the proportion of Canadians opposing the volume of new arrivals surging for the second straight year. With a 31 percentage-point jump since 2022, it’s the most rapid change over a two-year period since the survey began in 1977.

    Record population growth — comparable to adding all of San Diego’s residents to a country that’s slightly more populous than California in just over 12 months — exacerbated housing shortages, inflated rent prices, strained public services and pushed up the unemployment rate. These pressures threatened a long-held belief that mass immigration gives Canada an edge in a global race to replace aging workers.

    Facing growing criticisms for losing control of immigration, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has put a limit on international student intakes, restricted use of foreign labor and set a goal to drastically shrink the temporary resident population. But the survey results suggest the efforts so far have failed to reverse the sharp decline in immigration support that began last year.

    “The increase in immigration is accompanied at a time when people are feeling less comfortable with their own financial situation,” Keith Neuman, the author of the Environics report, said in an interview. “And the fact that you have an unpopular government responsible for an issue that people are becoming more nervous about simply reduces confidence. That combination of factors isn’t something we’ve really seen before.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/support-for-immigration-in-canada-plunges-to-lowest-in-decades/ar-AA1st0Zi

  24. B.C. political landscape faces polarizing shift as voters head to the polls

    British Columbians will choose their next provincial government on Saturday in a campaign that has been too close to predict. What is certain is that the political landscape after Oct. 19 will be far different than anything that could have been anticipated even a few months ago.

    There are two parties in contention to win, plus some wild cards – a strong list of independent candidates and a third party hoping to play a starring role should the province end up with a minority government. No matter how the breaks go, British Columbians can count on a more polarized legislature when it next convenes.

    The New Democratic Party has, in some ways, campaigned against its own record by promising change after seven years in government.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-bc-political-landscape-faces-polarizing-shift-as-voters-head-to-the/

  25. More Trudeau cabinet ministers not running for re-election, sources say shuffle expected soon

    Federal cabinet ministers Filomena Tassi, Carla Qualtrough, and Dan Vandal announced Thursday they will not run for re-election.

    Senior government sources tell CTV News at least one other – Marie-Claude Bibeau – doesn’t plan to run again, setting the stage for Justin Trudeau to shuffle his cabinet in the coming weeks.

    Coming amid growing dissent within his caucus, in statements confirming their plans to not re-offer, the three ministers expressed their support of and gratitude to the prime minister.

    Trudeau losing these ministers comes as multiple sources tell CTV News(opens in a new tab) that a group of Liberal MPs plan to ask him at next Wednesday’s caucus meeting to step aside before the next election, for the good of the party.

    Other high-profile Liberals have also recently stepped down from cabinet, including former transport minister and Quebec lieutenant Pablo Rodriguez, who left to run for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party, and former labour minister Seamus O’Regan, who quit for personal reasons.

    “The Liberal party’s prospects are not that great. So, there’s a high likelihood that many, if not all of these cabinet ministers could lose their seats if the polls hold until the next election,” said Abacus Data’s David Coletto. “So, I think this is just indicative of a government that’s in the later stages of its life, and it’s bound to lose some senior people.”

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/more-trudeau-cabinet-ministers-not-running-for-re-election-sources-say-shuffle-expected-soon-1.7076911

  26. Florida human trafficking sting nabs 157 people, including 25 illegal immigrants

    Florida law enforcement officials arrested 157 people during a human trafficking sting, including 25 illegal immigrants, some of whom allegedly received benefits from the federal government after stepping foot into the country.

    Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd was joined with representatives from various other law enforcement agencies from places like Marion County, Lake County, Auburndale, Clermont, Davenport, Winter Haven, Lakeland and Tampa, when he announced that “Operation Autumn Sweep” resulted in the arrest of 157 suspects involved in illegal acts related to soliciting prostitutes, offering to commit prostitution, and aiding and abetting prostitutes. Three others were arrested for traveling to sexually batter children.

    The operation began on Oct. 2, and the investigation found that four possible human trafficking victims were identified out of the 47 prostitutes who showed up to undercover locations to commit prostitution.

    Judd’s office said 96 suspects were arrested for soliciting prostitution, and out of the 157 people arrested, there were 35 felonies, and 201 misdemeanors issued.

    Out of the 157 people who were arrested, the sheriff explained, 25 were in the U.S. illegally from countries like Cuba, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and Venezuela.

    “Sixteen percent of these total arrests were people who should not even have been in this country,” the sheriff said. “But they were here, and they were here because we have a federal government that enabled these criminals to come into the country, and they treated them very well after the criminals came here illegally.”

    Judd shared the story of a female suspect who came to the U.S. with her child. The woman told investigators she flew into Mexico from Venezuela and then walked across the border from Mexico into El Paso, Texas, with her child.

    Judd said when the woman arrived in Texas, she was greeted by the Border Patrol. “There is no border security at the southern border. Zero. It doesn’t exist,” Judd said.

    He continued, saying the woman went to the Border Patrol processing center where she completed the process and was placed in a housing facility for migrants.

    The woman said she was given a DNA test to make sure her DNA matched her child’s, and once that was done, she was told about the benefits she could get in the U.S.

    According to Judd, the woman was told she was eligible for programs like Medicaid and SNAP. She allegedly then got a free trip from Texas to Chicago, and after arriving there, she could not find employment.

    Judd said the woman decided to go to Florida and was even given a free flight to the Sunshine State.

    “She was given free housing, all because the United States paid for that. That’s right. Use the taxpayers,” Judd said. “This was not a stealthful act, and they gave her free travel, free housing, free food, free medical care. All while people from the hurricane are still waiting for help.”

    Judd also said four of the women listed as human trafficking victims were smuggled across the border, two of whom admitted to having to pay off a coyote debt of $6,000.

    “Make no mistake about it, the government is complicit and is aiding and abetting human trafficking in the United States,” Judd said. “In addition to that, there is a wide-open border where fentanyl is coming across, and that is encouraged, and as a result of that, we have thousands upon thousands of people dying in the United States. And then the best that our federal politicians can say was, ‘well, it didn’t kill as many people this year as last year.’”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/florida-human-trafficking-sting-nabs-157-people-including-25-illegal-immigrants/ar-AA1stbNN

    1. “Make no mistake about it, the government is complicit and is aiding and abetting human trafficking in the United States,”

      Ten percent for the big guy

    2. The Free Press had a good article about how bad the trafficking has gotten. https://www.thefp.com/p/inside-americas-fastest-growing-criminal

      “But earlier this year, the Department of Health and Human Services’ inspector general conducted a study of 343 randomly chosen minors to see if their sponsors had been vetted properly. Their findings, issued in February, concluded that 19 percent of the children were released to sponsors before the fingerprint and background checks were completed—meaning that criminals could well have taken migrant children without the government realizing it.”

    3. More quotes from the Free Press story:

      “One in particular where we sent 329 children to one address: two garden apartment [buildings] in Houston, Texas.” The supervisor, White told The Free Press in an interview, took no steps to investigate further, but instead told White that she wasn’t moving migrants out of the facility quickly enough.”

      “On the contrary, it has lately been pushing through rules that will minimize the vetting of sponsors—for instance, making background checks optional instead of mandatory. This, of course, will allow the NGOs to push migrant children through the system even faster.”

  27. Harris/Walz ticket represents the One World Order , Global Governance Dictorship , Great Reset, Stakeholder Capitalism power grab.

    The Biden Administration made it perfectly clear that the US should lead in the One World Order. Biden has been doing a unconstitutional attempt at transfer of power by Treaty to the unelected and corrupt UN/WHO. Invasion of borders and all the other policies is the One World Order Agenda of destruction of US.
    I’m already pissed off that they rigged the 2020 election to put these treasonous puppets like Biden/Harris in to implement the Agenda of the One World Order warfare.
    They want to eliminate Government by the People, and their end game is controlling all resources of earth and consumption by its inhabitants.
    These Entities want to eliminate all free speech, and censor any dispute to their fraudulent narratives, of Climate Change and global Panademics.

    Actually these Globalists Mega Monopolies, under the WEF, have infiltrated global governments to form a facism partnership with global governments.

    If you noticed, during Covid 19 lockdowns, Monopoly Corporations were paid by the Cares Act to violate rights of employees by threatening job loss if you didn’t take vaccines. Monopoly Corps got paid by government and remained open and small business , restaurants etc were destroyed. Hospitals were paid by government to literally kill people.

    The seeds of this insurrection was fueled by the Monopolist Rockefeller, Club of Rome, Banking Cartel, and others Powers in collusion.

    Apparently the Constitutional Republic of US was under the invisible hand of these private party Entities of Mega Monopolies, Rich Elites and others , and a partnership with the Governments to form a more perfect dictorship.
    These Entities are highly vested in enslaving humanity under their control grid, using fraudulent emergency narratives to justify the take over.

    Harris /Walz are One World Order shills, no question.

      1. Pshaw, Ben “Alex” Jones. In #OurDemocracy, We the People elect representatives who ensure honest, responsible, accountable governance free from undue influence by unelected elites and supra-national bodies like the WEF, Bilderbergers, UN, and Club of Rome.

        I slay me….

  28. With just about everything seeming to be in a bubble, what should we HBBers be investing in and/or doing with extra money?

    1. Not financial advice, just one man’s opinion: Converting debauched Yellen Bux into physical platinum seems like a no-brainer, since the Fed’s deranged money printing continues to steal value from every honestly earned dollar in existence. Fundamentals of platinum seem strong:

      1. A noble metal that is 10X more rare than gold, but currently costs less than half as much (~$1000 vs. ~$2,700)

      2. #1 source of supply (73%): South Africa. Which under a corrupt Marxist kleptocracy is circling the drain, with mines being forced to appoint unqualified Blacks to senior positions. #2 source: Russia – dodgy from a geopolitical risk standpoint.

      3. Rising industrial demand and interest from investors, with Costco now selling 1 oz platinum bars at its stores amid strong consumer demand.

      4. Every oz of physical precious metal that you remove from the market is a middle finger in the face of the Fed and its bullion bank market manipulators who have huge naked short positions – and exposure to any price spikes.

      Platinum, Bitchez!!

        1. That crossed my mind. Costco the other day had a 25 pack of of 1 oz silver coins. I was tempted to order one, but ended up not pulling the trigger.

        2. “#3 could possibly be a shoeshine boy moment.”

          What does this mean? I’m guessing it’s something along the lines of “If the shoeshine boy wants to buy it, it’s time to sell.” Am I close?

          2. “…the shoeshine boy…”

            Just like the cocktail ladies, these shoeshine boys likely overheard plenty of bigshots’ deals.

    1. This is what collapse under communism looks like.

      I have a Mexican uncle who was a diplomat. For a few years he was assigned to the embassy in Havana. He said that they had to ship everything from Mexico, as procuring basic consumer goods in Havana was a crapshoot. They would have to bring office supplies, TP, food, you name it. Even lightbulbs. There were daily flights from Mexico City, which is how stuff got to them.

      He said it was a dreadful place, and he was happy to leave when his tour of duty was over. This was from before the Soviet Union collapsed. It must be so much worse now.

      Mexico used to sell gasoline and diesel to Cuba on credit (in other words, free). My uncle said Cuba had nothing Mexico wanted or needed in exchange. For some reason, probably to give the USA the finger, the PRI was buddy, buddy with Cuba. When the PRI finally lost power and the PAN took over things got chilly with Cuba. Not sure what it’s like now under MORENA’s rule.

  31. For The First Time In My Life, I’m Voting Republican

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    5 hours ago

    Thank you, Aaron Everitt, for another exceptional video on why, after a life of living and voting for the Democratic Party, M. C. Armstrong is departing and voting for ‪@DonaldJTrumpforPresident‬. 🇺🇸

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_XkxjO1vTk

    3:26.

  32. San Diego County

    https://nitter.poast.org/StealthQE4/status/1847124568802041890#m (w/ 1m15s video):

    Some crazy stats in the San Diego housing market

    1200 houses have been taken off the market because they aren’t selling. A 200% increase from last September

    Inventories are up 63% vs a year ago

    People refuse to drop prices. Dumb. Taking it off the market fixes nothing

    https://nitter.poast.org/m3_melody/status/1847277284979335513#m:

    Inventory up 89.48% since January 2024

    Chart from my Thoughtful Money presentation…hope you can join this weekend

    eventbrite.com/e/where-are-m…

    h/t: @NotoriousAirbnb for the illustration of San Diego Airbnb infestation…..red dots everywhere

    1. People refuse to drop prices.

      As more houses come on the market at those same ridiculous prices.

    2. On a positive note, San Diego was 63-degrees F at 0600-hrs this morning. Meanwhile, it was 24-degrees F (wind chill) this morning when Ruby and I went for our morning hike in E Washington’s Columbia Basin scrub desert.

  34. ‘Mata has lived in his home with his family for eight years. He says selling right now has come with its challenges, like trying to please potential buyers. ‘They (the buyers) can ask for more things than they could have a year ago.’ He said he is selling for less than he would have liked. ‘If we would have sold a year ago, it would have been like 100 to 120 more than what’s on the market now’

    You got greedy Mark.

  35. ‘Sweeney said the market, once Brandywine’s biggest, has been bitten by the the federal workforce’s stalled return to office, calling the lack of progress a ‘killer.’ ‘Our capital costs combined with net effective rents just made me conclude we got to get out of the market’

    When you bought DC was considered bullet proof Jerry. How do you like those 5% cap rates now?

  36. ‘Isho is ready to end his foray into real estate investing. The 28-year-old car mechanic became a landlord two years ago, paying C$600,000 ($436,000) for a two-bedroom condo in the small but fast-growing city of Barrie, about an hour north of where he lives in Toronto’s suburbs. It’s been costing him about C$1,600 every month because his mortgage payments spiked with higher interest rates, outpacing what he can charge in rent. ‘I was in the red pretty deep, but I was trying to focus on, ‘Let’s hold on to this place and maybe in a couple of years I can make some money and flip it,’ Isho said. But though rates are finally falling, he’s had enough of bleeding cash every month. He plans to list the property this month for about C$80,000 less than he paid. ‘I’m going to take my losses now and get out with whatever I can’

    Dammit Bawelaya, yer just giving it away.

    1. C$600,000 ($436,000) for a two-bedroom condo in the small but fast-growing city of Barrie

      For me, it’s just a gas and supply stop on the way to cabin country and the wilderness. Canadian millionaires may be trading houses with each other, but for most of my life, it’s seemed like a broken down dump of a place. Used to be a supply route depot when canoes were the way to travel. Great burger stop just north in Orillia.

  37. ‘A condo glut is inevitable. Property developers remind me of the ‘hot pandesal’ craze when I was growing up. When someone puts up a hot pandesal business in a neighborhood, two or three more will do the same. Property developers are not thinking of an end user occupying those units when they build them. Condos are being built and sold as a place to park excess cash. The current oversupply being reported by Leechiu is not surprising. The spam messages I keep getting from property sales agents trying to sell me a condo unit sound desperate. I had Sunday lunch at Estancia at Capitol Commons in Pasig and sales agents were trying hard to interest me in ‘investing’ in Ortigas condo units across the street’

    This giant sh$thole has had a bubble fer years and so does Indonesia. We don’t hear much from either probably due to a lack of English translations on search engines.

  38. ‘My jaw was hanging off. I couldn’t believe it’…Steele’s Camperdown complex paid brokerage fees as high as 115 per cent of the base premium. Ms Steele, who is the treasurer of her strata committee, said it felt like a ‘real betrayal of trust.’ ‘These people are meant to be managing for us, not ripping us off’

    I’ve covered this before in previous HBB Pitfalls of Commie Urban Living™ Alison. Yer paying the people who are fooking you.

  39. ‘The housing market is experiencing a deep adjustment, as a ‘bottom’ is being formed gradually through three years of overcorrection’…Sales at the nation’s top 100 home builders in the first nine months of the year fell 38.8 per cent from a year earlier’

    Bottom picker get stinky fingers Yan.

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