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A Residential Portfolio Investment As A Quick And Easy Way To Make Money… The Foundations Of That Will Have Been Shaken

A report from Real Estate News. “With the pandemic real estate boom well in the rearview mirror, Central Texas homebuyers and sellers are adapting to life in a more balanced market. The most recent Austin-area housing report from Unlock MLS depicts a market unlike many others across the country: Prices are continuing to drop, pending sales are up and inventory is sitting right around six months. Sellers in Austin are still adjusting to the change. The September report indicated the average closing was 92.8% of the list price, down slightly from 93.2% a year ago. While sellers may be a little disappointed, the pandemic period of rapid price growth was unsustainable, said Clare Knapp, housing economist for Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors. And Austin-area real estate agents may have to evolve too. ‘What I’ve observed is that Realtors are just really positive people and have an ability to try to make the most of any situation,’ Knapp said. ‘There’s a lot of hope for the future, but there is certainly a recognition that this is perhaps not the market in Austin that they would have wanted.'”

Mansion Global. “The aftermath of Helene and Milton, which brought historic storm surges to Florida’s Gulf Coast and wreaked havoc across seven states, is bound to create ripples within the affected housing markets. ‘All of the attention that Florida was given during the pandemic has really fallen as the market adjusts to price levels and the kind of inventory that buyers are willing to pay for,’ said Realtor.com economist Hannah Jones. ‘Right now, it seems like prices are too high for buyers to have more interest. Both Florida and North Carolina have seen out-of-state viewership fall lately, but Florida has seen a sharper drop.’ All major markets in Florida have seen inventory flood the market over the past year, with active listings up 36% statewide in August compared with last year, and more than 40% in Orlando, and Tampa, according to Redfin. That’s true in most markets nationwide, including in North Carolina, where inventory was up 21% in August, per Redfin.”

From News4Jax. “In the wake of two powerful hurricanes, Helene and Milton, six major property insurance companies are outlining their future plans in Florida. The insurance industry is facing potential rate hikes, and one Fort Myers insurance agent is weighing in on what homeowners should expect. Brian Wilcox, a commercial insurance agent at Five County Insurance, believes that hurricanes Helene and Milton could result in higher insurance rates for property owners across Florida. ‘I project that there’s going to be a spike in insurance across the board. Even if you didn’t file a claim, we’re all in this pool together,’ he said.”

The Washington Post. “Deep blue and normally like-minded, Montgomery County isn’t a typical setting for political divides, especially one with angry shouting at public meetings where each side accuses the other of working to ruin Maryland’s most populous county. Every member of the county council is a Democrat, and the county executive — a longtime member of the Democratic Socialists of America — lives in a town that proudly calls itself ‘The People’s Republic of Takoma Park.’ But introduce a plan to allow new housing types in single-family neighborhoods and fault lines start to emerge. A man who said he lives in Chevy Chase warned: ‘This is a radical change that will be the death of single-family communities.’ Another man shouted out ‘Yeah!’ and the audience erupted in whistles and cheers.”

“‘It’s really a betrayal of the single-family homeowner,’ said Steve Cohen, a retired naval architect and marine engineer who has lived in Kensington for more than 35 years. ‘It destabilizes the community and it makes the homeowners pay the price. Every homeowner has a basic expectation that there’s going to be stability in their home price. This is going to destroy all that.’ ‘You start to realize that communities with a progressive reputation may not necessarily have such progressive views on, say, whether more people should live next to them,’ said Jordan Day, a Silver Spring renter and supporter of the plan.”

Bisnow on California. “General contractor Suffolk Construction has filed a lawsuit against Behring Cos., the Danville-based developer of a 452-unit luxury apartment tower in Uptown Oakland. The $20M lawsuit, filed Aug. 16 in Alameda County Superior Court, says Behring is in breach of contract over construction delays at the 1900 Broadway project, according to the San Francisco Business Times. San Francisco bedroom communities in the East Bay have seen a glut of new multifamily supply over the past five to seven years. ‘The effects of supply pressure are being felt most acutely in bayside submarkets like Downtown Oakland and Berkeley,’ according to a second-quarter NAI NorCal report.”

The Turlock Journal. “The value of farmland in parts of the San Joaquin Valley, California’s agricultural heartland, has fallen rapidly this year as commodity prices lag and implementation of the state’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act casts a shadow on the future of farming in the region. In 2014, when SGMA was adopted, the value of farmland without reliable surface water access began to decline. But within the past several months, those values have plummeted, according to appraisers, realtors and county assessors.”

“‘It’s very dramatic,’ said Janie Gatzman, owner of Gatzman Appraisal in Stanislaus County, who until last month served as president of the California chapter of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers. Her analysis showed San Joaquin Valley vineyards and nut tree orchards had declined in value by 25% to 50% within the previous eight months. Since March, almond orchards without reliable surface water in the valley have lost more than half their value, according to ASFMRA’s figures. In parts of Tulare County, Gatzman said, some pistachio orchards have sold this year for a quarter of what they were worth last year.”

“‘How quickly it’s come on in recent years has been a surprise,’ said Doug Phillips, president of Schuil Ag Real Estate in Tulare County, referring to SGMA’s impact on land values. ‘I don’t think much changed initially, but it certainly has changed now.’ The value declines have been greatest, appraisers said, in white areas that depend entirely on groundwater, which comprise about 20% of the valley’s irrigated farmland, and in districts with expensive and unreliable water deliveries. ‘There is just no appetite for those properties unless you discount it so steeply,’ Gatzman said. ‘That’s why the value has fallen.'”

“Justin Morehead, a former banking manager whose family farms in Tulare County, spoke last month at the state probation hearing for the Tule Subbasin, spelling out the crisis facing some farmers. ‘The banks, now looking at appraised land values that have shed 60% to 70% in five years, are reluctant to lend to the local family farm. Unable to continue farming, the owner will either be forced to sell or foreclose with the bank,’ Morehead said. ‘This is not a hypothetical exercise to us. This is the reality our family is facing.'”

The Daily Voice. “A New York attorney has admitted to running a scheme to defraud victims of nearly $6,000,000. Long Island resident Daniel Boldi, age 49, of Garden City acted as settlement agent and bank attorney in multiple property sales on Long Island and embezzled millions of dollars of his clients’ escrow and home loan funds, according to Nassau County District Attorney Anne T. Donnelly. The scam involved 46 separate real estate transactions between September 2020 and January 2024, Donnelly said. Boldi pleaded guilty to 13 counts of grand larceny in the second degree (a Class C felony) and one count of scheme to defraud in the first degree (a Class E felony). Boldi is expected to be sentenced to three to nine years in prison and is required to pay $1,000,000 in partial upfront restitution.”

“In one scheme, Boldi provided a private lender with a fraudulent mortgage and title closing records, embezzling $1.15 million through two separate loan thefts. According to bank records, Boldi used the funds he stole on various personal expenses unrelated to the victims’ transactions, including Venmo payments to other individuals and property investments. ‘Daniel Boldi posed as a trusted professional in real estate transactions and orchestrated elaborate schemes that defrauded nearly four dozen prospective homeowners, real estate brokers, and even a volunteer ambulance corps out of more than five million dollars,’ said Donnelly.”

The London Free Press in Canada. “Jean Zak was midway through writing a book about her son Jonathan, who was killed in a 2012 shooting, when she had to stop working on it in the spring. Zak became overwhelmed after finding herself embroiled in another London police investigation. Zak, 81, is one of two dozen people who police allege were defrauded out of nearly $2 million by Robert (Randy) Hawken, a financial adviser and insurance broker who had built clientele in the London area over more than three decades. Hawken, 66, faces criminal charges and a mounting tally of civil lawsuits. After retiring from TD Canada Trust, Zak invested in a guaranteed investment certificate (GIC), a fixed-term investment that pays set interest rates, through Hawken’s company, Dufferin Financial Group, in 2002, she said.”

“Another London couple has launched a $178,000 lawsuit against Hawken, his wife and Amsaral, which lists Hawken as director and holds a mortgage on a home at 554 Waterloo St., where Dufferin Financial operates. The couple had known and invested with the Hawkens for 15 years, contributing $78,000 between December 2023 and January 2024 in a GIC, the statement of claim alleges. The couple asked Hawken to withdraw their investment from the GIC, but he told them he couldn’t return their money until he had paid out ‘residuals,’ the lawsuit alleges. One day later, a Dufferin Financial Group employee called the couple and said the company had defrauded them and several other clients, the lawsuit alleges.”

“The Hawkens misappropriated the money invested with Dufferin Financial Group and used it to support their lifestyle, including to pay the mortgages, taxes and upkeep for two houses in London and another in Grand Bend, the lawsuit alleges. The Tuscan Lodge is asking the Ontario Superior Court of Justice to put a certificate of pending litigation on the London properties, both listed for sale since the spring, and the Grand Bend cottage. The four-bedroom house at 558 Waterloo St. has been listed for sale since March 3. The $549,000 asking price has been slashed twice since it was first listed for $699,000. Property records show the house is owned by Amsaral Holdings. The three-storey house at 554 Waterloo St. is listed for $1.05 million, down from the original nearly $1.3-million March asking price. Zak, meanwhile, said she’s been consumed by worries and has had trouble sleeping since learning her GIC investment with Hawken may be gone. Asked what Zak would like to say to Hawken, she replied: ‘How could you do that to me when you know I lost my son? ‘”

Radio New Zealand. “Economists said the period of high inflation – and the downturn the Reserve Bank’s interest rate response to it created – had changed the economy significantly, in at least seven key ways. Independent economist Shamubeel Eaqub said an obvious, lasting change was in the prices New Zealanders pay for just about everything. Prices were still much higher than they had been previously, he said, and that was the new normal.”

“‘It almost went on to a different plain, or train track. We were going along and suddenly shifted on to a higher level for prices and a lower level for economic activity. We haven’t seen a permanent shift up in prices for a long time … I don’t think the Reserve Bank or anyone is forecasting outright deflation and if you don’t have outright deflation what happens is you get stuck on that parallel track. On a macro level, on a business level, on a household level – businesses have higher costs and higher prices. Everything has shifted up. The value of money has [dropped] – $20 is not the same as it was five years ago. We will look back on this period as quite seismic, the ripples will go on for a long time … I have never seen such a sustained period of financial stress among New Zealanders before.'”

“Council of Trade Unions chief economist Craig Renney said the experience of the downturn may have changed some people’s perceptions around housing. ‘A residential portfolio investment as a quick and easy way to make money… the foundations of that will have been shaken. The construction market is well off its heights and it could take a long time to get back to the levels of the boom period post-Covid.'”

From ABC News. “Banning development in serious flood zones and buying back existing properties that are at high risk are among 86 recommendations of a federal government inquiry that probed how insurance companies responded to major Australian floods in 2022. The inquiry’s report, handed down on Friday, found evidence of systemic problems following severe flooding across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, including inconsistent decision making, poor-quality expert reports and long delays. More than 300,000 insurance claims were made over the flood events, totalling almost $7.4 billion. The report concluded insurance companies ‘failed too many people.'”

“Northern Rivers resident Aveley McCann’s home on the outskirts of Lismore was damaged by the 2022 floods, but repairs under her insurance claim are yet to be completed. ‘I’ve got doors that don’t close in the house and it’s almost three years later,’ she said. ‘If I’d had some of those definitions really early, it would have made the process easier. The entire process was like picking off a scab every time. You could never heal. I feel like I’ve failed.'”

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This Post Has 112 Comments

    1. “Since March, almond orchards without reliable surface water in the valley have lost more than half their value, according to ASFMRA’s figures. In parts of Tulare County, Gatzman said, some pistachio orchards have sold this year for a quarter of what they were worth last year.”

      Heard about what’s going on with California vineyards? Looks like the nations breadbasket is taking a mighty schlonging.

          1. Perhaps Mr. Pickens ignores the fact the aquifers run dry and can take thousands of years to replenish.

    2. Turdlock is affectionately known as the butthole of the valley.

      Ironically the name Turlock comes from the Irish word turlough, which means “dry lake”. Apparently that fact is lost on most of the farmers there. Maybe one day it will refill like Tulare Lake did recently. I am hoping to see the day when the whole valley refills. 🙂

      1. “Turdlock is affectionately known as the butthole of the valley.”

        Matter of fact, if you want to give California an enema Modesto is where the nozzle is inserted.

    1. ‘What I’ve observed is that Realtors are just really positive people and have an ability to try to make the most of any situation,’ Knapp said.

      “Always be closing” means saying whatever you have to say to get the marks to sign on Mr. Banker’s dotted line. Coffee is for closers only.

    2. Historians have revealed that Navajo code talkers in the U.S. Marines’ WWII South Pacific campaign ended every transmission with “Realtors are liars.”

  3. A reminder, nobody has ever voted their way out of communism:

    “Cuba’s national electrical grid shut down on Friday after one of the island’s major power plants failed, Cuba’s energy ministry said, plunging the entire country into a blackout.

    The Communist-run government earlier in the day closed schools and non-essential industry and sent most state workers home in a last-ditch effort to keep the lights on for residents.

    The crisis marks a new low on an island where life has become increasingly unbearable, with residents already suffering from shortages of food, fuel, water and medicine.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2024/10/18/cuba-power-failure-electricity/75737283007/

    1. “The crisis marks a new low on an island where life has become increasingly unbearable, with residents already suffering from shortages of food, fuel, water and medicine.”

      But they’re equal.

      1. Communal living tends to always boil down to equal suffering. The original settlements in our new world were communal and they continued to fail until it got so bad that it was every man for himself. It was only then that everyone began to prosper. Our own selfish determination is what makes this country so abundant.

  4. Paul Krugman muh best economy ever:

    “Former Target vice chairman Gerald Storch on Thursday warned that holiday spending will likely disappoint this year as inflation-battered consumers run low on savings and scrimp on spending due to geopolitical uncertainties.

    “It’s very clear that consumers are running out of money,” Storch, also the former CEO of Toys ‘R’ Us in the 2000s and early 2010s, told Fox Business. “They’re increasingly stressed by inflation and the exhaustion of their pandemic-era savings.”

    https://nypost.com/2024/10/18/business/ex-target-exec-says-holidays-to-disappoint-shoppers-running-out-of-money/

    Pandemic-era savings = Big Government money printing has increased your cost of living by 50%.

    3. “…and the exhaustion of their pandemic-era savings.”

      Ever seen a loser save money? Neither have I, LOL.

  5. You live in a bankrupt empire in terminal decline:

    “The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday.

    Even with a modest surplus in September, the shortfall totaled $1.833 trillion, $138 billion higher than a year ago. The only years the U.S. has seen a great deficit were 2020 and 2021 when the government poured trillions into spending associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.”

    Covid is a hoax. A really, really expensive hoax.

    “Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.

    One aggravating factor for the debt and deficit picture has been high interest rates from the Federal Reserve’s series of hikes to fight inflation.

    Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/18/us-deficit-tops-1point8-trillion-in-2024-as-interest-on-debt-surpasses-trillion-dollar-mark.html

    No shortage of money for Israel or Ukraine, or for the globalists unending importation of illiterate third world rabble (yes, you are being replaced).

    Keep paying those federal income taxes, cattle tax slaves.

    1. Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023

      Our “rulers” have basically two choices:

      1) Drastically reduce or eliminate the deficits, which will require austerity levels previously unseen in this country. Tens of millions will lose government jobs and benefits, and the private sector will also take a beating, with the stock market crashing and 401K balances decimated. Because the can has already been kicked so far down the road that it will take many years to right the ship.

      2) Keep kicking the can. There will be more and worse inflation and the deficits will soar at rates that will dwarf today’s budget shortfalls. Continue doing this until it becomes utterly unbearable and the nation is forced into option #1.

      NOTE: The above only holds true if we still have a republic. Witness Cuba, where they can no longer keep the lights on and civilization is collapsing. Will the Communists there change course? Not likely, even though they no longer have a sugar daddy (the USSR) to keep them afloat.

  6. Marxists gonna Marx:

    “Former President Trump joined “Fox & Friends” on Friday for an in-person interview where he told a 6-year-old child the U.S. “won’t have any cows” if Vice President Harris is elected.

    In a recorded video, the child asked the Republican candidate about his favorite farm animal.

    “I’ll tell you what I love, I love cows, but if we go with Kamala, you won’t have any cows anymore,” the former president responded to the child’s question. “I don’t want to ruin this kid’s day.”

    He then called Harris a “radical left lunatic.”

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4941581-trump-says-no-cows-under-harris/

    See also: Cuba has no electricity.

    1. See also: Cuba has no electricity.

      We often joke about “the lights going out”, but it’s actually happened in Cuba. Cuba is on the verge of total collapse.

    2. I caught that bit last night and I was like cows?? Then I realized they were just coming off a bit about him going to work at McDonalds and he was really thinking about how much he likes eating them. What a savage!

  7. All major markets in Florida have seen inventory flood the market over the past year, with active listings up 36% statewide in August compared with last year, and more than 40% in Orlando, and Tampa, according to Redfin.

    Is that a lot?

  8. Her analysis showed San Joaquin Valley vineyards and nut tree orchards had declined in value by 25% to 50% within the previous eight months.

    Gosh, I hope no one levered up on debt to buy that farmland.

  9. Clutch those pearls harder:

    “Donald Trump’s militaristic plan to deport as many as 20 million undocumented immigrants would tear apart families, likely cost hundreds of billions of dollars, harm the economy, and raise all sorts of constitutional, humanitarian and logistical problems.”

    Harm the economy?

    Chamber Of Commerce GOP want you replaced no less than Democrat Party, the only border they’re interested in “conserving” is Israel, because America Last.

    “Trump’s advisers have provided ample details about the plan, including the necessary construction of enormous prison camps for immigrant families, part of an effort to deport millions of people at a record pace. The camps would be built “on open land in Texas near the border” and would have the capacity to house as many as 70,000 people, which would double the country’s current immigrant detention capacity, Stephen Miller, the main point man on immigration in Trump’s White House, said last year. They’ve also suggested enlisting local police departments and the military to help carry out the deportations. The American Immigration Council estimates a mass deportation program would cost $1 trillion over a decade.”

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-mass-deportations-republicans_n_67126122e4b0ef3c92749457

    WHO is replacing you?

    The Southern Poverty Law Center and Anti Defamation League, that’s who.

    Ask Mark Potok about the chart on the wall of his SPLC office projecting the demographic change of USA, the Great Replacement.

    Ever #Notice that Israel doesn’t have open borders? Is it even legal to #Notice that?

    Ron De Santis doesn’t think so. He’s in Israel signing anti First Amendment legislation. Probably shouldn’t #Notice that either.

    Just keep paying those federal income taxes, watch more sportsball, and pass out on the couch.

    2. The American Immigration Council estimates a mass deportation program would cost $1 trillion over a decade

      So, $100B a year? We’re already spending far more than that giving illegals free stuff.

      As the Peter Parker meme goes: “You don’t have to sell me on it, I was already going to vote for DJT.”

      1. dammit, beat me to it, was going to use that same meme.

        Also shouldn’t take no 10 years. How about 1 year? tops.

        1. I encounter people who say “It’s impossible to deport them all, so there is no point in trying”

          To which I reply: “I’ll happily take 50% of them. Though I think it’s possible to do better.”

          Heck, all the Trump admin has to do is make life difficult for them (no more freebies) and many will self deport.

  10. Prices were still much higher than they had been previously, he said, and that was the new normal.”

    When the Keynesian fraudsters at the central banks created trillions in stimulus out of thin air to pump into their asset bubbles & Ponzi markets, did the sheeple not realize that such monetary malpractice would manifest as runaway inflation?

  11. The value of money has [dropped] – $20 is not the same as it was five years ago.

    The gold collar criminals at the central banks are still expanding the money supply while lying about the true rate of inflation. Got gold? Got silver?

    1. I have never seen such a sustained period of financial stress among New Zealanders before

      You ain’t seen nothing yet!

      Everyone is running huge, inflationary deficits. And countries like New Zealand, whose currency is NOT a reserve currency, are soon going to have to choose between austerity or hyperinflation.

  12. How did he earn the nickname Touchdown Timmy?

    “The rumors about Walz first gained attention after a post referenced a reporter who observed “tension” between Walz and parents at a Mankato West High School football game. The incident has reignited old rumors from Walz’s time at Mankato West High School (1996-2006), where he was a teacher and coach. These rumors, which involved inappropriate behavior with male students, were allegedly discussed at school board meetings, although Walz was never formally charged with any crime.”

    MSN dot com has scrubbed the link to this, because Real Journalists.

    1. And somehow, scumbags like this guy, instead of serving time in the slammer, are elected to higher office.

  13. Trapped In Your Home (Peel Region Real Estate Market Update)

    Team Sessa Real Estate

    16 hours ago MISSISSAUGA

    This episode shows the current Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, and Pickering Real Estate home prices and market trends for the week ending Oct 9, 2024. We also discuss how some people who purchased at the peak are trapped in their homes unless they want to lose money.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csAgB6Z1KZg

    12:15.

  15. A reader sent these in:

    US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunge In September

    https://x.com/TalkMarkets/status/1847261422536831193

    The plunge in active residential construction continues – looking most similar to 1973 & 2007.

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1847275056277127626

    We all want someone to look at us the same way that Jamie Dimon and Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud look at each other.

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1049311409329201152

    “The next phase of mixed-reality.”

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/920310345721417728

    Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman shows Facebook CEO and noted Human Impersonator Mark Zuckerberg which limb they generally remove first.

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1052351605679448064

    Sentiment indicators are not broken Carl, they however reflect the ever widening wealth inequality further exacerbated by this cycle yet again.
    Household net worth is very much skewed toward the top 1% while the majority are struggling with real issues such as unaffordable housing.
    It’s not a policy success, it’s an ongoing policy failure with precarious implications for social stability.
    And I go so far as to say that the ever more fragile political climate in the US is a reflection of this trend that keeps being ignored as a root cause & hence remains unaddressed.
    And the Fed remains unaccountable and unchallenged for their long standing role in all this.
    Nobody in the media even bothers to confront the Fed with critical & probing questions on the subject.
    So no, indicators are not broken, it’s just that nobody listens to what they are truly saying.
    Perhaps they are afraid of the implications.

    https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1846648254265491919

    New York Community Bancorp unit Flagstar Bank will lay off around 1,900 employees, the U.S. regional lender said on Thursday

    https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1847103597034852383

    Let’s check back in on the QT.

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1847324362975957141

    Speaking of massively distorted housing markets, here’s the Fed’s MBS holdings. They owned $0 in 2008.

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1847325815496994915

    At this point, real estate investors in China are whistling past a graveyard as prices declined again last month. 👇🏼

    https://x.com/MauiBoyMacro/status/1847286924731670609

    $280,000 loss in 30 months! “not in my market”

    https://x.com/KirkChivas/status/1847309809382510772

    Hard to buy into the ‘housing shortage’ narrative – especially in the Sunbelt.

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1847385919109943641

    The alarming fact here is that this issue is largely absent from the campaign debate.

    Literally everyone is discussing tampons in men’s bathrooms and criminally convicted aliens roaming free while everyone agrees to continue the spending binge.

    The deficit is now close to $ 2 trillion and growing exponentially. The tricky part is arresting the rot will have to go through lower interest rates which are soon to suck-up 20% of taxes collections. Which is impossible to do without getting inflation started again, unless there is a serious bi-partisan drive to straighten the finances. But zero sign of that in this campaign.

    It’s been a quarter of a century almost since US had a surplus…

    Conservative projections of debt trajectory is an add of between $ 8 and $ 15 trillions in next 10 years… regardless of who wins what.

    That’s roughly 30% to 60% of US GDP and clearly will be breached before 2035, contrary to genteel CRFB projections.

    That’s a lot of spending to juice those last decreasing nominal returns… and the bill will be due at some point.

    https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1847198371661975945

    Ok, guess this settles the soft/hard landing debate

    https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1847001021270405304

    You can’t trust Airbnb ratings.

    “Kyle” is a superhost with over 3955 reviews. He scrubbed this 1st review by deleting the Airbnb listing entirely.

    These are all blackholed reviews that guests will never see.

    https://x.com/NotoriousAirbnb/status/1847485798225948695

    Chinese Stocks just saw a weekly outflow of $4.1 billion, the largest outflow in more than 9 years

    https://x.com/Barchart/status/1847450949587009850

    Not making a claim about future returns or anything else but I’m struck by the confidence/certainty that SPY/QQQ are no-brainer ways to set it and forget it for long-term wealth building in a way I can’t recall before in my career.

    https://x.com/conorsen/status/1847379784181174331

    My aesthetician just told me that BMO offered her a $30k Line of Credit so she took it and went all in on NVDA yesterday.

    https://x.com/TdLeaker/status/1847439899361693913

    I got a $20k LOC with TD and a $35k LOC with RBC and went all in on $TSLA and crypto.

    Up 70% this year so far 🙂

    https://x.com/DeltaIsNeutral/status/1847442507375784118

    The First National Bank of Lindsay, Lindsay, OK has failed and been seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)

    https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1847429431393911293

    Not your garden variety failure. Referred to the justice department.

    https://x.com/BlacklionCTA/status/1847446986531713332

    1. We all want someone to look at us the same way that Jamie Dimon and Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud look at each other.

      It’s a big club, and we ain’t in it.

    2. New York Community Bancorp unit Flagstar Bank will lay off around 1,900 employees, the U.S. regional lender said on Thursday

      Even with $2T deficits jobs are being shed wholesale.

    3. Literally everyone is discussing tampons in men’s bathrooms and criminally convicted aliens roaming free while everyone agrees to continue the spending binge.

      That’s because everyone knows what will happen if the spending binge stops. It’s much easier to look the other way, keep kicking the can and release bogus inflation numbers.

      Even if there is a red wave next month, I doubt that a GOP controlled House and Senate will do much to reduce deficit spending. They might knock a few hundred billion off it and call it a day.

      1. Decreasing it even a little would require a spine. And if there’s one thing that republicans don’t have, it’s a spine.

        Nothing will change. Everything will be worse in a year.

        1. The Establishment GOP are the controlled opposition. They answer to the same Cabal of mega-donors as the Democrat wing of the uniparty. Their globalist oligarch pimps are the sole beneficiaries of the Fed’s “No Billionaire Left Behind” monetary policies and our insane deficit spending, so our feckless “representatives” won’t lift a finger to rein in the Fed or out-of-control gubmint spending.

    4. My aesthetician just told me that BMO offered her a $30k Line of Credit so she took it and went all in on NVDA yesterday.

      Now that’s a shoeshine boy moment.

      2. When everyone is a bull, the bull market is over. There’s no one left to buy.

        They are now borrowing money to do this.
        Guaranteed that same person will be crying in a bit about how “no one could see this coming”

        1. Levering up on debt to “invest” in speculative stock manias while sinking deeper into debt – what could possibly go wrong?

        2. Guaranteed that same person will be crying in a bit about how “no one could see this coming”

          When her $30K investment tanks she will cry for a bailout.

  16. Low Grain Prices Are Stimulating Demand, Just Not Enough

    For the week, December corn lost 11 cents, November soybeans plunged another 33¾ cents, December soybean meal gained 50¢ per short ton and December soybean oil fell 151 points. December soft red winter wheat was down 26¼ cents, December hard red winter wheat lost 23¾ and December hard red spring wheat dropped 27¼ cents.

    Despite strong demand and export news this week, grains markets ended lower on Friday and were down for the week.

    Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, was encouraged by the strong weekly exports, especially for corn and soybeans, and flash export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to China.

    However, Gulke says the demand is still not good enough to chew through a 550-million-bushel U.S. soybean carryout or a 2-billion-bushel corn carryout.

    He thinks corn and soybean prices might have to go lower to find more end-user buying.

    “There’s a certain amount we have to get rid of to get ending stocks lower than what they’re currently projected, and that might take a while. The bottom line is the function of the market — when you have too much, you become the cheapest seller, not necessarily the cheapest producer,” he explains.

    Gulke says the hard reality is the market doesn’t care if producers make money on their crop.

    https://www.agweb.com/markets/market-analysis/low-grain-prices-are-stimulating-demand-just-not-enough

  17. Milk worth $6.7 billion ‘vanished’ from Canadian dairy farms, study estimates

    As published in the journal Ecological Economics , the authors’ low-end estimate for milk that “vanished” from Canadian dairy farms between 2012 and 2021 at over 6.8 billion litres. By their accounting, that amount – enough to provide for 11 per cent of Canada’s population – would have had a retail value of $6.7 billion.

    While not directly linked to wastage, per se, prices for Canadian dairy products over that time increased steadily and the country remains one of the most expensive nations in the world for such items, averaging more than $3 per litre according to Stats Canada.

    Milk wastage is not new – it’s been happening for decades – but it is decreasing somewhat in Canada. The authors wrote that the reduction in recent years is likely due to better farm management, stricter regulatory adherence, improved supply chain co-ordination and processing technology refinement allowing farmers to more closely match production with market demand.

    “It’s not abnormal to have surpluses. It’s quite normal, in fact,” Sylvain Charlebois, study co-author and head of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, told The National Post. “What’s disappointing is that there’s no strategy for surpluses at all.”

    “I think the core system actually can work, should work, but supply management is not perfect and we need to talk about some of the flaws openly,” explained Sylvain Charlebois. “With supply management, we shouldn’t be allowing anybody to dump anything.”

    The authors admit the DSMS, operational since 1971, is not the only factor leading to farmers dumping milk down the drain. They found that “low market demand, limited processor capacity, presence of antibiotic residues, or damaged farm infrastructure” also played a part.

    However, they suggested the DSMS routinely results in excess supply because farmers are “incentivized” to go beyond their quota rather than risking producing too little – losing money and facing stiffer penalties.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/don-t-cry-over-spilled-milk-farmers-are-already-tossing-billions-of-litres-away-study-suggests/ar-AA1suLKg

  18. California Air Resources Board bucks calls for transparency ahead of vote impacting gas prices

    The California Air Resources Board appears to be resisting calls to be more transparent ahead of a key vote next month that’s expected to raise gas prices.

    The board, which is an unelected group overseen by Gov. Newsom’s administration, is set to vote Nov. 8 on updates to the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standards program. The update will include changes that will financially impact the oil and gas industry that the board has acknowledged will translate into increased costs for customers at the pump. The board has been inconsistent about what exactly those costs might be, and as of Friday was unwilling to give an estimate.

    CARB has been unable to keep its story straight about what the LCFS update will mean for California drivers. Last year, the board estimated in an initial report that it could cost up to 47 cents more per gallon starting in 2025. The board has since walked back the number, telling lawmakers in a hearing on Sept. 18 that it was a “snapshot” in time.

    “Nobody is saying E-15 is a silver bullet,” said Assemblyman Heath Flora, R-Ripon in a hearing on the issue on Sept. 19. “To hold up a type of fuel that in 49 other states is accepted, and in California we try to be too cute? That’s unacceptable to me.”

    https://www.kcra.com/article/california-air-resources-board-transparency-vote-gas-prices/62655320

    2. In other news, Klog tops off his 85 gallon diesel fuel cell, and main tank at less than $3.00 a gallon in Texas. 2500 mile range, that way I can visit California, and now buy the fancy fuel.

  19. Meta layoffs are the latest sign that constant job cuts are the new Big Tech normal

    The hashtag affixed to Andy Welfle’s LinkedIn photo says it all: #sickofthisshit. Welfle wrote earlier this month that he was laid off from Microsoft after only nine months. He’d previously spent nine months at Cruise before being laid off.

    His dual layoffs might have been worse than what many others experienced, but Welfle is hardly alone in getting hit by what appears to be some employers’ penchant for regular layoffs, particularly in Silicon Valley.

    One of the latest examples is Meta, which said on Wednesday that it was rejiggering some of its biggest businesses, resulting in lost jobs at Instagram, Reality Labs, and WhatsApp.

    It wasn’t clear how many roles were eliminated. A Meta spokesperson told Business Insider on Wednesday that the company was looking for other positions for affected workers.

    After shedding workers in sweeping layoffs in late 2022 and early 2023, many tech companies are taking a more methodical, department-by-department approach to making cuts. Major firms including Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have announced sizable reductions followed by more modest trimming.

    Take Google. The tech giant’s parent company, Alphabet, began 2023 by cutting some 12,000 jobs, or about 6% of its workforce. It followed that with smaller reductions this year.

    Art Zeile, the CEO of the tech-career marketplace Dice, told BI that some of the biggest companies in the industry had determined that certain departments were no longer sufficiently profitable and that they needed to redirect resources to growth areas like artificial intelligence.

    “It is a shifting of bets,” he said, adding that this routine trimming of jobs here and there is the new normal — for now.

    Unsurprisingly, even with growth in some areas, the drip-drip of reductions in the past couple of years appears to be making some tech workers nervous. In a June survey from Indeed that involved more than 1,100 US tech workers, 40% of respondents said they expected to be affected if their company conducted layoffs. Seven in 10 said they’d start looking to other employers if their company laid off workers.

    Linsey Fagan, a senior talent strategy advisor at Indeed, told BI that most of the recurring layoffs were in tech. That’s likely because many companies in the industry grew quickly during the pandemic and are still adjusting.

    But those recurring cuts don’t come without costs, Fagan said.

    “It’s definitely not a sustainable strategy,” she added.

    Fagan said employee sentiment starts to drop before a layoff as workers suspect cuts are coming. After the layoffs, workers’ feelings about the company — and a CEO’s acumen — take “a long-term dive,” she said.

    “When you look at a business trying to come back from that — if they’re continuously laying off, it simply can’t happen,” Fagan said.

    Even smaller-scale layoffs can make workers jittery, she said. Fagan added that the rise of technologies like generative AI and the threat of layoffs were pushing many in tech to build their skills.

    Tech workers looking for jobs on Indeed, she said, are now more likely to apply to staffing firms, which might offer temporary gigs, or to roles in areas like healthcare than to tech firms.

    Fagan said that while some tech workers are drawn to the flexibility that contingent or part-time roles can offer, tech has historically been the No. 1 industry tech workers want to work in.

    “They’re just not feeling that stability right now,” Fagan said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careers/meta-layoffs-are-the-latest-sign-that-constant-job-cuts-are-the-new-big-tech-normal/ar-AA1suO5e

    1. What no one is saying is that the jobs are going offshore.

      We haven’t had mass layoffs where I work, in fact the global headcount grew by about 20K in the past few years. But about 98% of those new hires have been offshore.

      1. Hopefully at some point this means there’s room for competition from a company with US-based, more effective/experienced/etc. staff.

  20. Fluid Market files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

    Finally, huge truck rental company Fluid Truck’s parent Fluid Market filed for Chapter 11 protection facing a class action lawsuit and liquidity problems dating back to spring 2024, as the company underperformed its budget due to weaker demand and inability to control expenses adequately to offset a shortfall.

    Fluid Market filed its petition on Oct. 16 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware seeking to sell substantially all of its assets to enable the company to continue as a going concern and provide the highest return for its creditors and stakeholders. The debtor is working on terms for an asset purchase agreement with Kingbee Rentals LLC and hopes to file it along with bidding procedures soon.

    The debtor has also arranged $7 million debtor-in-possession financing from its prepetition bridge loan lenders, including Bison Capital Partners, Ingka Investments, Carbon Fleet, and Kingbee Rentals, conditioned upon Fluid entering an asset purchase agreement with Kingbee.

    Fluid also faces a class-action lawsuit filed by Urban Interests LLC on Oct. 10 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Colorado, asserting improprieties with respect to proceeds from vehicle sales and insurance claims. All litigation is subject to an automatic stay while the debtor proceeds in its Chapter 11 case.

    Fluid Truck operates a technology-based, peer-to-peer truck-sharing platform in 400 cities in 32 states across the U.S. for rental trucks, cargo vans, and box trucks owned by their non-debtor affiliates or third-party owners who put their vehicles on Fluid’s platform.

    Vehicles are available to rent 24/7, 365 days a year through Fluid Truck’s mobile app or website. Trucks can be rented for as little as a few hours to as long as several months.

    Fluid Market was founded in 2016 by James Eberhard and Jenifer Snyder as an online marketplace where people could rent almost anything from others such as tools, lawnmowers, bounce houses, and trucks. The truck rental business began to grow and the company shifted its focus to renting trucks and launched debtor Fluid Fleet Services LLC in 2019.

    In addition to Denver, Fluid has offices in Portland, Ore.; Salt Lake City; Seattle, and Buenos Aires and employs 127 workers. It also leases parking lots in 60 cities across the U.S., where vehicles are stored and rented to customers. The company operates and manages a fleet of 5,500 vehicles, mostly comprised of cargo vans and small trucks, with about 2,000 vehicles owned by the debtor’s non-debtor affiliates and 3,500 owned by independent third parties.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/huge-truck-rental-company-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy/ar-AA1swwUQ

  21. Mexican newspaper offices hit by gunfire in Sinaloa state capital

    Assailants fired a dozen gunshots at a building housing the newspaper El Debate in the embattled northern Mexico state of Sinaloa, the media outlet said Friday.

    The newspaper is based in the state capital, Culiacan, where rival factions of the Sinaloa Cartel have been staging bloody battles.

    The Mexican Media Alliance, a press freedom group, called it “a direct attack against press freedom and right of the public to be informed.”

    El Debate said that the assailants arrived in two vehicles and stopped briefly in front of the building. One gunman got out and opened fire with a rifle, before they sped off.

    Threats against journalists and their sources have increased exponentially since the latest round of factional fighting broke out after two Sinaloa drug capos — one from each faction — flew to the United States and were arrested there.

    Drug lords Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López were apprehended in the United States after flying there in a small plane on July 25.

    Zambada later claimed he was kidnapped and forced aboard the plane by Guzmán López, causing a violent battle between Zambada’s faction and the “Chapitos” group led by the sons of imprisoned drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán.

    Journalists have reported being stopped by gunmen on roadways outside Culiacan and told they couldn’t cover the continuing gunbattles happening on the outskirts of the city on an almost daily basis.

    The fear is well founded; in 2022, one of El Debate’s columnists, Luis Enrique Ramírez, was abducted and killed in Culiacan. His beaten body was found wrapped in plastic on a dirt road outside the city.

    There is little doubt that the warring cartel factions in Sinaloa want to intimidate the media into not reporting on their battles, and that has forced local residents to turn largely to social media for reports on when it might be safe to go out, and where the danger is.

    Those social media platforms were full on Friday of videos of burning vehicles, bodies and cartel convoys speeding through towns.

    As usual, there was no confirmation of that from state authorities, who have consistently tried to downplay the violence.

    On Thursday, hours before the attack on the newspaper, Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha said “there is nothing to worry about” and “everything is under control.”

    But the truth leaks out around the edges: Sinaloa State University told students that it was canceling in-person classes Friday because of “the acts of violence in and around the Sinaloa state capital.”

    Those online videos sometimes depict scenes that could reasonably be compared to a war: Two weeks ago in a town north of Culiacan, a passing driver filmed a military helicopter hovering over four gunmen in helmets and tactical vests just yards from a highway. The gunmen had crashed their truck into a telephone pole, but were shooting back at the chopper.

    However, the online rumor mill is sometimes unreliable.

    The Sinaloa Red Cross was forced to issue a statement late Thursday denying reports that two paramedics had been kidnapped along with their ambulance in an outlying town where fighting has been especially fierce.

    But even the Red Cross was spooked. It was careful to say that “it is important to stress that the Mexican Red Cross is not taking any side in the conflict.”

    State prosecutors were largely left hamstrung after the chief state prosecutor resigned after allegedly submitting false information about the July 25 killing of an opponent of Gov. Rocha.

    And the entire municipal force in Culiacan has been temporarily disarmed by soldiers to check their guns, something that’s been done in the past when the army suspects that police officers are working for drug cartels.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mexican-newspaper-offices-hit-by-gunfire-in-sinaloa-states-capital/ar-AA1svSPx

    1. Culiacan is a no go zone. In fact, all of Sinaloa, including Mazatlan, is best avoided.

      The Mexican Feds have been trying, and failing, to regain control in Sinaloa. The Mexican media have coined a term for every time the cartels send the feds running. They call it a “Culiacanazo”, which loosely translates as a “Culiacan whack”

  22. Ontario mayors ask for mental-health law reviews in wake of opioid, encampment crisis

    Ontario Big City Mayors are asking the province to review mental-health laws and whether to expand the scope of involuntary treatment for people who are addicted to drugs and live on the streets.

    The organization that represents 29 mayors of cities with more than 100,000 people say they are taking no position on treatment given without consent — a practice British Columbia’s government recently committed to expanding.

    But they say they want to spark a discussion with the provincial government, noting homelessness has risen across Ontario since the COVID-19 pandemic, in communities big and small.

    Encampments have popped up in recent years throughout the province, while the cost of both purchasing and renting housing has increased significantly.

    Toxic overdose deaths are also up, and the mayors are demanding immediate action from both the province and the federal government.

    Last year, nearly 2,600 Ontarians died due to opioids, a 50 per cent increase from 2019, with fentanyl and its derivatives especially affecting users in the homeless population.

    “For those suffering from mental health and addictions in this province, there are not proper facilities that have capacity to give everyone who requires the care they need to get that care in a timely fashion,” said Josh Morgan, the mayor of London, Ont.

    Alex Nuttall, the mayor of Barrie, Ont., was among several city leaders who were calling on mayors to take a collective position and outright ask for mandatory involuntary treatment laws from the province. He said he’s happy with their softened position.

    “When I sit there and make calls for the city of Barrie asking for more mandatory treatment and rehabilitation, I don’t know what those lines look like in terms of where those lines need to be created, what the pathways are into it, what the pathways are out of it,” he said Friday.

    “And what you’re seeing here in this motion is a call for the provincial government to determine whether they need to strengthen what already exists in terms of mandatory care in this province.”

    Cam Guthrie, the mayor of Guelph, Ont., said he is exasperated and fed up. “We have an encampment and opioid addictions and mental-health crisis in our province and we should not be at another podium again asking for help,” he said. “So we need the help of the province and we need it urgently, we need it now.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/other/ontario-mayors-ask-for-mental-health-law-reviews-in-wake-of-opioid-encampment-crisis/ar-AA1swzSW

    1. The mental health they need to be dealing with is that of the brain-dead sheeple who fail to make their connection between their vote for globalist Quislings and Canada’s terminal decline.

      1. I’m sure that while the Canadian government’s largesse flowed and their houses appreciated into the stratosphere while they paid 1% interest they were all high fiving each other over their clear financial genius.

        I recall a post here from a few years ago about realtors going onto college campuses in Canaduh, recruiting students to make speculative purchases.

        In the early days it was like shooting fish in a barrel. Today, they fret about how they can’t even afford groceries.

  23. Does it seem like Wall Street is too infatuated with risk assets for its own good? Gambling like a drunken sailor may someday fail as an investing model. Considering Treasurys as a form of portfolio insurance might not be a bad idea.

    1. Brett Arends’s ROI
      Opinion: Wall Street hates Treasurys. Maybe it’s time to give them some love.
      Time to show them a little appreciation?
      By Brett Arends
      Last Updated: Oct. 19, 2024 at 7:26 a.m. ET
      First Published: Oct. 19, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. ET
      Bonds? Yuck! Photo: Getty Images
      Referenced Symbols

      Here at Pariah Capital, we are pleased to announce that we are buying United States Treasury bonds with both hands.

      (But not corporate bonds.)
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-hates-treasurys-heres-why-you-should-love-them-9ecc29fa

    2. Gold is the ‘last safe haven’ as Treasurys face risks from soaring US debt, Bank of America says
      Kelly Cloonan
      Oct 17, 2024, 10:22 AM PDT
      gold bar hand holding money graph
      Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BI

      – Traders and central banks should increase exposure to gold, Bank of America says.

      – The strategists say Treasurys face risks as US debt levels soar.

      – The analysts see gold hitting $3,000 an ounce by the end of next year, implying 11% upside.

      Bull

      Gold is increasingly attractive as other traditional “safe haven” assets face mounting risks, Bank of America strategists said.

      The strategists said investors, including central banks, should rotate into the precious metal, which bulls tout as a hedge against inflation and debt debasement resulting from rising government borrowing.

      “Gold looks to be the last ‘safe haven’ asset standing, incentivising traders including central banks to increase exposure,” the strategists said in a Wednesday note.

      They explained that with US debt expected to keep soaring, Treasury supply faces risks. At the same time, higher interest rate payments as a share of GDP will make gold an attractive asset in the next few years.

      Rising spending is alson’t merely a US issue. The analyst notes that the International Monetary Fund predicts new spending could amount to 7%-8% of global GDP annually by 2030.

      “Ultimately, something has to give: if markets become reluctant to absorb all the debt and volatility increases, gold may become the asset of choice. Central banks in particular could further diversify their currency reserves,” the analysts wrote.

      With neither candidate for the upcoming US presidential election prioritizing fiscal discipline and a pullback in spending, national debt is projected to hit a record high as a share of the economy in the next three years, the analysts said.

      That will increase interest payments as a share of GDP, making gold an attractive asset amid concerns that markets won’t be able to absorb new debt, they add.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-safe-haven-treasurys-us-national-debt-bofa-fiscal-expansion-2024-10

    3. Markets
      A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks are in a ‘mega-bubble’ with the S&P 500 ahead of fundamentals by at least 25%
      William Edwards
      Oct 19, 2024, 2:00 AM PDT
      trader nyse angry surprised market crash
      Getty Images / Spencer Platt

      – Economist David Rosenberg warns the stock market is in a “mega-bubble.”

      – Rosenberg cites high valuations, investor positioning, and sentiment as warning signs.

      – Despite recent market gains, Rosenberg predicts a recession and advises caution in investing.

      It’s a tempting time to jump into the stock market. The S&P 500 continues to register new highs and has climbed an incredible 23% so far this year. That’s on the heels of a 22% gain in 2023.

      But now isn’t the time for greed, says famed economist David Rosenberg.

      In notes to clients this month, the founder of Rosenberg Research, who called the 2008 recession, warned that the market is overvalued, eventually setting investors up to get burned.

      “This is the mother of all momentum-driven stock markets,” he wrote in an October 9 note.

      “When this mega-bubble pops, it will be spectacular,” he added on October 18. “This is no time to chase momentum or the herd mentality.”

      Rosenberg said a large reason for his bearish outlook is a trifecta of measures sitting two standard deviations outside of average values: positioning in stocks, market valuations, and investor sentiment.

      While he didn’t cite specific measures in his notes, many widely followed indicators corroborate these assertions.

      For investor positioning, here’s household equity ownership as a percentage of assets as of the start of this year. North of 40%, it exceeds levels reached during the dot-com bubble.

      For valuations, there are a myriad of different gauges, but two common ones to consider are the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio and the ratio of the Wilshire 500-to-GDP, shown below, respectively.
      shiller pe ratio

      There are also many measures of investor sentiment. One popular indicator is the AAII Sentiment Survey. As of Thursday, 45.5% of its respondents characterized themselves as bullish, above the historical average of 37.5%. Almost half of respondents, however, said they think the market is overvalued.

      By Rosenberg’s measure, the S&P 500 is at least 25% higher than where fundamentals suggest it should be.

      “Prices have outpaced earnings growth in the past year and if this were a classic earnings-driven rally, the S&P 500 would be sitting near 4,600, not at 5,751,” Rosenberg said in the October 9 note. “Not only that, but analyst EPS revisions have been squarely to the downside.”

      Since then, the S&P 500 has risen to 5,864.

      Rosenberg’s bearish views on the market come alongside a pessimistic view of the economy. He said an expectation-beating September jobs report was an outlier in a downward trend, and he still expects a recession ahead.

      The bearish economist has been calling for a recession for a couple of years now, and has warned at various points of an overvalued stock market.

      Meanwhile, the market has soared, outperforming the expectations of even the most bullish strategists on Wall Street, and the economy has continually shown resilience despite interest-rate hikes.

      But signs of weakness are emerging as the unemployment rate trends upward and job openings and new hires drop.

      The Federal Reserve has started to take action to prevent further slowing by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September. But it’s still not clear whether the economy is at the start of a new business cycle, or whether it will buckle under the weight of elevated rates and plunge into recession.

      Rosenberg thinks the latter scenario is more likely, and therefore cautioned investors about investing at this stage of the bull market, after such an aggressive rally over the last couple of years.

      “Managing money means, at all times, preserving capital while capturing part of the upside,” Rosenberg wrote in the October 18 note. “J.P. Morgan reportedly once commented that he got wealthy not by buying at the lows and selling at the highs, but rather by being involved in the middle 60% of the bull market. We are well past that point.”
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-economist-who-called-2008-recession-mega-bubble-2024-10

  24. California Told Its Richest Cities to Build Housing. Instead, They Made Homelessness a Crime.

    The Supreme Court gave nine states free rein to arrest the unhoused—so they did.

    In August, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, in his working-man’s clothes—aviators, jeans, and a trucker hat—starred in a video where he carted people’s possessions out of a homeless encampment near a Los Angeles highway.

    On any given night in 2023, more than 650,000 people in the US experienced homelessness, with almost 400,000 unsheltered—though that figure may be an underestimate. Research by the federal Government Accountability Office found that every $100 rise in median monthly rent brings about a 9 percent increase in homelessness—notable as rent costs have climbed by 25 percent nationally since 2020, according to CNBC.

    Newsom’s photo op followed his July order calling for the clearing of encampments on public property, and came alongside a threat to withhold state funding from cities and counties that failed to meet his requirements, much to the ire of local officials like Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. On July 25, the day of the order, the governor posted on X: “No more excuses. We’ve provided the time. We’ve provided the funds. Now it’s time for locals to do their job.”

    Earlier this month, Newsom approved more than $130 million in funding for 18 cities, including over $12 million to Riverside, to “sweep” encampments. According to the governor, the goal is to support “efforts to get people out of encampments and connected with care and housing across the state.”

    A statewide audit released in April tracked investment during Newsom’s first five years as governor, from 2019 to 2023, and found that California spent roughly $24 billion in that span to address housing and homelessness. At his inaugural address in January 2019, Newsom vowed to “launch a Marshall Plan for affordable housing and lift up the fight against homelessness,” promising to push for the development of 3.5 million housing units across the state by 2025.

    Cesar Covarrubias, executive director of the Kennedy Commission, an Orange County nonprofit that works to increase production of homes for lower-income residents, described the penalty structure as a trap that unhoused people are forced into.

    “Individuals who are homeless get citations,” said Covarrubias, and if those go unpaid, “then there’s warrants that are issued against them.” Most people cited “are never going to be able to pay for those,” he said, “and it just continues to be a cycle where now part of their housing solution would be to house them in jails.”

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/10/california-newsom-housing-homelessness-orange-county/

      1. DJT is right about how he has been treated by Ds and RINOs, so he is dishing it out at every opportunity! LOL

  25. Macron Finds Out What Power Sharing Means, Doesn’t Like It

    Emmanuel Macron’s diminished authority in France’s power-sharing government appears to be taking a toll. Macron’s tirade against his cabinet ministers, journalists and political commentators, accusing them of “a lack of professionalism” for leaking remarks he made about Israel, cast the French president in an uncharacteristic light this week.

    “I was astonished to read so many comments, comments on comments, reactions, including from political leaders, foreign or French, on remarks that I made, without people trying to find out what exactly I had said,” a visibly angry Macron told reporters after a European Union summit.

    The outburst on Thursday night reveals Macron’s deep frustrations on the domestic stage, including the suggestion that he can’t trust his own ministers. The president lost his parliamentary majority in an election he called this summer after far-right leader Marine Le Pen thrashed Macron’s centrists in voting for the European Parliament.

    “I speak often enough about the situation in the Middle East that I do not need a ventriloquist,” Macron said Thursday. While he didn’t deny making the comments about Israel, he said they were misrepresented.

    The controversy started after reports that Macron told a cabinet meeting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shouldn’t forget that Israel was created by a United Nations decision.

    The comment cited by French media infuriated Netanyahu and drew fire from a Jewish community group and some politicians.

    Senate President Gerard Larcher, a conservative, said he was “astounded” by the comments and Macron’s “ignorance” of history. A lawmaker in Macron’s party whose constituents include French citizens in Israel suggested Macron was questioning the country’s existence.

    The election result has forced Macron to stand back on domestic issues after setting up a power-sharing arrangement with more conservative forces including Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, the government’s most hard-line member. Two cabinet members have threatened to resign over budget demands.

    Scope Ratings downgraded France on Friday, another warning of the perilous state of the country’s finances and the political roadblocks to contain a ballooning budget deficit. The Europe-based rating firm cut France to AA- from AA, three levels below a top rating.

    France’s 2025 budget may be the next flashpoint since opposition parties could topple Barnier’s government if they join forces in a confidence vote — giving Le Pen’s National Rally power to bring down the administration.

    The National Rally’s fiscal wish list includes taxing superdividends and share buybacks, ramping up pressure on Barnier. National Rally lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy said Wednesday that his party it would abstain from a confidence motion as long as the government does more to cut debt and increase what he called “fiscal justice.”

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/macron-finds-power-sharing-means-030000380.html

  26. B.C. faces a rain-soaked election day after a campaign drenched in negativity

    British Columbians go to the polls on Saturday after a too-close-to-call campaign that saw David Eby’s New Democrats and John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives tangle over housing, health care and the overdose crisis — as well as plastic straws and a billionaire’s billboards.

    “I hope we never see another election like this,” Eby said this week in Nanaimo, describing the tone of the campaign where he felt compelled to tell voters about controversial public statements made by Rustad and some of his candidates.

    “We don’t call people who are gay ‘groomers,'” he said. “We don’t tell Indigenous people that what they experienced in residential schools wasn’t real. We don’t propose that health-care professionals be put in front of an international tribunal similar to the trial of the Nazis called Nuremberg 2.0.”

    Regardless of the outcome, the election will go down as a sea change for B.C. politics, with the Conservatives poised to either form government or become the official opposition, after the implosion of the BC United party under Kevin Falcon, who halted his party’s campaign to support Rustad and avoid centre-right vote splitting.

    Polls have put the NDP and the B.C. Conservatives locked in a close battle. It’s a remarkable turnaround for the Conservatives, who won less than two per cent of the vote in the last provincial election.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/testy-bc-election-campaign-sees-leaders-attacking-each-other-more-than-policy/ar-AA1su7mZ

  27. Money-Supply Growth Hit a 23-Month High, and the Fed Wants More

    The days of slowing and falling money supply growth rates are over. Money-supply growth accelerated, year over year, in August by the largest amount in 23 months, and August was the third month in four months that the money supply has grown, year over year.

    The current trend in money-supply growth suggests a significant turnaround from more than a year of historically large contractions in the money supply that occurred throughout much of 2023 and 2024. Since April 2023, year-over-year growth in the money supply has slowly inched upward, and the money supply appears to be, for now, in a period of stabilization overall.

    Looking to month-to-month growth, the money supply has been largely flat for 17 months, coming in between $18.8 trillion and $19 trillion with only small variations, month after month.

    Since 2009, the TMS money supply is now up by more than 185 percent. (M2 has grown by 145 percent in that period.) Out of the current money supply of $19 trillion, $4.6 trillion—or 24 percent—of that has been created since January 2020. Since 2009, more than $12 trillion of the current money supply has been created. In other words, nearly two-thirds of the total existing money supply have been created just in the past thirteen years.

    With these kinds of totals, a ten-percent drop in the money supply only puts a small dent in the huge edifice of newly created money.

    This should not surprise us since the Fed can always be expected to intervene to prevent any declines in overall money supply over anything more than the short term.

    For example, after months of insisting the price inflation was “transitory” in 2022, the Fed finally admitted that price inflation levels had become politically problematic and began interventions to rein in price-inflation growth. This is when we begin to see those month-to-month declines in the money supply during the second half of 2022. The only reason the Fed did this was because middle- and lower-income voters don’t like noticeably and rapidly rising prices. That is, the Fed’s hand was forced by political realities.

    By late 2023, however, the Fed pivoted to preventing any more declines in the money supply, and ever since then, we have seen money-supply growth temporarily hover around zero percent on average.

    This is not the behavior of a “hawkish” Fed. This is the behavior of a wait-and-see Fed which is hoping it can make current price inflation politically palatable without triggering sizable disruptions to labor markets. It is an election year, after all.

    Thus, the Fed held the federal funds rate at 5.5 percent for fourteen months, hoping the economy would somehow reset and begin a new boom period. That didn’t happen as proven by the fact the Fed felt it had to cut the target rate in September of this year. Naturally, the Fed did not frame the rate cut in this way, The Fed said it was merely cutting rates to ensure continued solid employment data into the future.

    Of course, this is exactly what the Fed would say. The Fed never admits the economy is in trouble until after a recession has already started. After all, in 2008 the Fed Chairman—Bernanke at the time—was still claiming there was no recession on the horizon months after the Great Recession had already begun.

    In practice, when the Fed begins a new cycle of rate cuts after a period of holding rates steady, a recession is virtually guaranteed. The Fed cuts rates when it sees recessions approaching.

    https://mises.org/mises-wire/money-supply-growth-hit-23-month-high-and-fed-wants-more

    2. Money-supply growth accelerated, year over year, in August by the largest amount in 23 months, and August was the third month in four months that the money supply has grown, year over year.

      For the benefit of yahoos, the expansion of the money supply, not “price gouging,” is the #1 cause of the “cost of living crisis.” And it’s only going to get worse despite the uniparty’s “Inflation Reduction Act.”

        1. Silver was $33.67 at the U.S. market close per Kitco. But right now only an infinitesimally small segment of U.S. retail investors have physical precious metals in their portfolio. As millions of former sheeple get red-pilled and start stacking the shiny, the Fed’s bullion bank market manipulators with their 590 million oz short positions are in for a DELIVERANCE-style reaming.

          https://www.kitco.com/price/precious-metals

  28. Letters: It’s foolish to build one-story homes on Sarasota’s barrier islands

    Hopefully after the latest pair of storms, Floridians will start making more rational choices about where to live. Barrier islands may still make sense for some things, but no longer for conventional, one-story residences.

    Houses on stilts, beach shacks with no drywall, seasonal businesses built like shacks and multistory buildings may all make sense for a while yet if built right.

    The change of mindset needs to happen soon. Mainland taxpayers are getting tired of subsidizing the islands.

    Maybe Sarasota and Manatee counties should start offering some small cash payments for those who abandon their land to the county to reduce costs down the road.

    David Towle, Sarasota

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/letters-its-foolish-to-build-one-story-homes-on-sarasotas-barrier-islands/ar-AA1smPyD

    1. “Hopefully after the latest pair of storms, Floridians will start making more rational choices about where to live.”

      Lol, just follow the lead of those who choose California’s Portuese Bend make more rational choices about where to live.

      People are stupid.

      1. In the distant past a barrier island house was a simple bungalow with few amenities because their owners knew what would eventually happen to them.

  29. Breaking news.

    Pro-Iranian account leaks alleged U.S. intel on Israel’s attack plans (10/19/2024):

    “U.S. officials are extremely concerned about a potentially major security breach after two alleged U.S. intelligence documents about Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iran were published by a Telegram account affiliated with Iran.

    The leak could be an attempt to disrupt the Israeli operation.

    The alleged report details measures that have been carried out in recent days at several Israeli Air Force bases, including the transfer of advanced munitions which, according to the report, were intended for an attack on Iran.”

    https://www.axios.com/2024/10/19/israel-iran-attack-telegram-leaked-intelligence

    U.S. taxpayers you are paying for ALL of this.

    1. Bibi’s desk side phone: Ring ring.

      Bibi: Hello?

      (Slurred incoherent Biden noises.)

      Bibi (rolls eyes): Joe, put one of your handlers on, please.

      Globalist handler: Hey, boss.

      Bibi: Why does this putz keep calling me? Does he not realize he’s irrelevant now that Kamala & the DNC replaced him in a palace coup?

      Handler: As Biden spirals deeper into dementia, he has moments where he genuinely believes he was legitimately elected as U.S. president with 81 million votes, and is leader of the free world.

      (Both men laugh.)

      Bibi: Well remind the senile pedo, again, that my Mossad has the video from Jeffrey Epstein’s Pedo Island showing a Who’s Who of Democrat Party movers & shakers molesting underaged girls. Then remind Nancy Pelosi and the DNC to fall into line on unconditional backing for Israel, or else.

      Globalist handler: Got it, boss.

      Bibi: Okay, now bring out the gimp.

      (Globalist handler hands phone back to Biden.)

      Bibi: Israel is a sovereign country that doesn’t need your permission to strike back at its enemies or your insincere demands for a ceasefire. I’ll remind you, again, who provides 99 percent of the funding for the Democrat Party.

      Biden (befuddled): Who?

      Bibi hangs up.

    2. Nancy Pelosi’s phone: Ring ring.

      Nancy: Hello?

      Bibi: Hello, Nancy. I’m going to make this brief. We want Gaza – the land, but not the population. So here’s what I need you and the DNC to do: facilitate the resettlement of 2.3 million Gaza Palestinians in the U.S. red states. That $320 million pier you built off the coast of Gaza for “humanitarian assistance” would serve admirably as a port of disembarkation for a sealift to transfer the Palestinians to the USA.

      Nancy: But…but…already the radical left wing of the party is up in arms about how Gaza has been destroyed and the humanitarian toll of Israel’s military campaign.

      Bibi: Not my problem. Let me remind you of who provides 99 percent of the Democrat Party’s funding, and it’s not the unhinged rabble protesting on U.S. campuses, or the Democrat-on-Arrival dependency voters flooding into the U.S. because of neocon regime change fiascos in the Middle East.

      Nancy: But Bibi, remember when Maxine Waters told our Red Guard activists to “get up in the faces” of Trump cabinet officials in public spaces? Now we’ve got pro-Palestinian radical activists doing the same to AOC, Gretchen Whitmer….

      Bibi: (Impatient) As you know, my boy Merrick Garland at your “Justice Department” has turned a blind eye to Democrat corruption, criminality, and electoral fraud. But if he starts pretending to do his job and going after senior Democrats for things like insider trading, perp walks could be really bad optics for the DNC and you personally, Nancy.

      (Pelosi turns pale, retrieves bottle of vodka from desk drawer, pours a glass with trembling hand.)

      Bibi: Look at the bright side. The DNC will gain 2.3 million new voters who share the Democrat Party’s hatred of Heritage America, Christianity, and the Constitution. Plus all the Islamic terrorism they’ll bring will be the perfect pretext for your DoJ and FBI to tear up what remains of the Constitution and annul the 2nd Amendment.

      (Nancy Pelosi creams herself) Great point! We’ve already got the Patriot Act II all ready to go, and our CCP comrades have offered to sell us the blueprints for their Uighur internment camps for all those Bitter Clingers and Deplorables we’re going to be rounding up. We’re looking at deputizing a bunch of TdA and MS-13 gang-bangers for the Gun Raids….

      Bibi: OK, Nance, gotta go. You & Schumer need to get over to the White House and explain to Dementia Joe that this is a done deal.

      Nancy: Will do, sir!

      (Bibi hangs up.)

      2. Agreed. The Gaza Strip needs to be annexed beginning with the porous southern border with Egypt, and establish a buffer zone in Lebanon up to the Litani River, first ejecting the UNIFIL forces.

  31. ‘Austin-area real estate agents may have to evolve too. ‘What I’ve observed is that Realtors are just really positive people and have an ability to try to make the most of any situation,’ Knapp said. ‘There’s a lot of hope for the future, but there is certainly a recognition that this is perhaps not the market in Austin that they would have wanted’

    It’s expensive to be a UHS in Austin Clare. It’ expensive to live there. Must be some pressure building. People getting let go, payroll problems, letters from the tax man.

  32. ‘I project that there’s going to be a spike in insurance across the board. Even if you didn’t file a claim, we’re all in this pool together’

    I call it HBB Pitfalls of Commie Urban Living™ Brian.

  33. ‘A man who said he lives in Chevy Chase warned: ‘This is a radical change that will be the death of single-family communities.’ Another man shouted out ‘Yeah!’ and the audience erupted in whistles and cheers…‘It’s really a betrayal of the single-family homeowner…It destabilizes the community and it makes the homeowners pay the price. Every homeowner has a basic expectation that there’s going to be stability in their home price. This is going to destroy all that’

    I know Steve, and yer shacks are some of the most expensive there are in the US. I hope no one over paid!

    ‘You start to realize that communities with a progressive reputation may not necessarily have such progressive views’

    This is related to why I always knew the commie bums, drugs, illegals, short term rental chaos couldn’t go on. Everybody gets sick of stupid sh$t.

    1. “Every homeowner has a basic expectation that there’s going to be stability in their home price.”

      California homeowners expect double digit appreciation to fund their offspring’s college expenses, two new cars every three years and the annual Disney World pilgrimage!

  34. ‘In 2014, when SGMA was adopted, the value of farmland without reliable surface water access began to decline. But within the past several months, those values have plummeted, according to appraisers, realtors and county assessors’

    This was a global but especially China QE caused boom in commodities playing out here, with the land bubble going along. Starting around 2009.

    ‘San Joaquin Valley vineyards and nut tree orchards had declined in value by 25% to 50% within the previous eight months. Since March, almond orchards without reliable surface water in the valley have lost more than half their value, according to ASFMRA’s figures. In parts of Tulare County, Gatzman said, some pistachio orchards have sold this year for a quarter of what they were worth last year’

    One would think such information might deserve more newspaper articles out there but they never do.

    ‘How quickly it’s come on in recent years has been a surprise,’ said Doug Phillips, president of Schuil Ag Real Estate in Tulare County, referring to SGMA’s impact on land values. ‘I don’t think much changed initially, but it certainly has changed now.’ The value declines have been greatest, appraisers said, in white areas that depend entirely on groundwater, which comprise about 20% of the valley’s irrigated farmland, and in districts with expensive and unreliable water deliveries. ‘There is just no appetite for those properties unless you discount it so steeply,’ Gatzman said. ‘That’s why the value has fallen’

    I’ve followed this bubble for many years. If it is a bubble, it always pops and tears follow.

    ‘Morehead, a former banking manager whose family farms in Tulare County, spoke last month at the state probation hearing for the Tule Subbasin, spelling out the crisis facing some farmers. ‘The banks, now looking at appraised land values that have shed 60% to 70% in five years, are reluctant to lend to the local family farm. Unable to continue farming, the owner will either be forced to sell or foreclose with the bank,’ Morehead said. ‘This is not a hypothetical exercise to us. This is the reality our family is facing’

    You got the boom, enjoy the bust Justin.

  35. ‘Daniel Boldi posed as a trusted professional in real estate transactions and orchestrated elaborate schemes that defrauded nearly four dozen prospective homeowners, real estate brokers, and even a volunteer ambulance corps out of more than five million dollars’

    Ambulance drivers Dan, is nothing sacred?

  36. ‘The four-bedroom house at 558 Waterloo St. has been listed for sale since March 3. The $549,000 asking price has been slashed twice since it was first listed for $699,000. Property records show the house is owned by Amsaral Holdings. The three-storey house at 554 Waterloo St. is listed for $1.05 million, down from the original nearly $1.3-million March asking price. Zak, meanwhile, said she’s been consumed by worries and has had trouble sleeping since learning her GIC investment with Hawken may be gone. Asked what Zak would like to say to Hawken, she replied: ‘How could you do that to me when you know I lost my son?’

    Yer barren sh$thole is crawling with real estate crooks Jean.

  37. ‘It almost went on to a different plain, or train track. We were going along and suddenly shifted on to a higher level for prices and a lower level for economic activity. We haven’t seen a permanent shift up in prices for a long time … I don’t think the Reserve Bank or anyone is forecasting outright deflation and if you don’t have outright deflation what happens is you get stuck on that parallel track. On a macro level, on a business level, on a household level – businesses have higher costs and higher prices. Everything has shifted up. The value of money has [dropped] – $20 is not the same as it was five years ago. We will look back on this period as quite seismic, the ripples will go on for a long time … I have never seen such a sustained period of financial stress among New Zealanders before’

    This sh$hole of an island was the first in all central bank interest rate phases. First to raise, first to crater and first to fall headlong into recession.

  38. ‘McCann’s home on the outskirts of Lismore was damaged by the 2022 floods, but repairs under her insurance claim are yet to be completed. ‘I’ve got doors that don’t close in the house and it’s almost three years later,’ she said. ‘If I’d had some of those definitions really early, it would have made the process easier. The entire process was like picking off a scab every time. You could never heal. I feel like I’ve failed’

    I know the day to day can be hard Aveley, but if you refuse to give it away, you will be a winnah!

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