It’s No Good Having A High Price If No One’s Going To Pay It

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “Randy and Robin Landsman had been trying to sell their Manhattan penthouse for over a year when they turned to the auction market this summer. First listed for $12.2 million, their triplex in the sought-after Tribeca neighborhood came with more than 2,000 square feet of terraces, a floating staircase and a private elevator. At auction the property sold for $5 million, less than half of what they had originally asked and little more than they paid for it two decades ago. ‘It was obviously a stupid mistake,’ Randy said of deciding to auction the home.”

“Misha Haghani, founder of real-estate auction house Paramount Realty USA, said he frequently counsels prospective auction clients that they have been too aggressive in their original pricing. By the time a property comes to auction, it has likely already undergone at least one price reduction, said Haghani. ‘When they come to us, hopefully they’ve had some sense knocked into them,’ he said of sellers. ‘They’re tired, they’ve had enough. They say, ‘As long as the offer is decent, as long as it’s fair, I’m going to take it even if it’s not exactly what I wanted before.’”

“Rather than listing their East Hampton estate, financial services executive Erik Stern and his wife, Michelle Stern, went straight to auction. Erik said they expected that the house was worth around $20 million or more, based on the 3-acre parcel of land alone. The Sterns said Concierge representatives didn’t want to put a reserve price on the property because they believed it would stifle momentum, but the couple were assured there was a high level of interest. The auction ended in minutes and closed at $15 million, far less than the Sterns had expected. ‘I think I vomited and blacked out,’ Michelle said. The Sterns were offered $100,000 by Concierge to settle their claims that Concierge had misled them; the settlement agreement contained a confidentiality provision that would have prevented the Sterns from speaking negatively about Concierge. They declined.”

The Sun Sentinel in Florida. “A Broward County panel on Wednesday warned that senior citizens in particular are struggling with mounting condo assessments — and the problem could grow as costs rise and owners cannot sell their homes. ‘For lower-income seniors, it really is impossible for them to pay these assessments,’ said panelist Charlotte Mather-Taylor, the CEO of the Area Agency on Aging of Broward County. . ‘We’re looking at people who actually are potentially looking at not eating as well, not purchasing their medications, things that they need on a daily basis to be able to survive having to say, ‘Well, can I get this money together to pay the assessment.’”

“‘A lot of buyers are deciding to sit it out,’ said panelist Beth Daly, a RE/Max realtor. Some buyers are not ready to purchase because they believe ‘the prices are going to come down. In the buildings that have deferred maintenance they are coming down hard and fast.’ In one building where homes would normally sell for the $600,000-$700,000 range, there was a $200,000 assessment and a unit just sold for $200,000, she said. Some of the blame should be assigned to condo boards who haven’t been doing proper maintenance, she said, and now unit owners have to pay the bills. ‘I have sat with elderly people. … And they’ve cried and said, ‘Beth, I cannot afford my blood pressure medicine, I’m cutting my pills in half, how am I going to pay for this?'”

“Experts urged the audience to advocate for policy changes to support condo owners. But legislators said there is no appetite in Tallahassee for a quick fix. ‘There is no state bailout coming,’ warned State Sen. Jason Pizzo to the audience Wednesday.”

The Tampa Bay Times. “After a year of slowing home sales, the Tampa Bay housing market may dip even further over the next few months as consumers grapple with fallout from back-to-back hurricanes, real estate experts say. In the past five years, that price shot up nearly 65%, from $248,000 to $408,990. ‘Florida is no longer the deal it once was, especially with the rising cost of insurance and property taxes,’ said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for the real estate firm Redfin. ‘So you’re not getting as many of those out of state buyers.’ Even sellers whose homes weren’t severely damaged are thinking twice about listing. Some fear it will be harder to find a place to move. Others, like local real estate investor Josh Streeter, are worried about getting the best price for their properties.”

“Streeter had planned on selling two rental homes he owns in St. Petersburg. Now he’s holding off. The homes are located in the floodplain but did not sustain damage. Still, ‘If somebody hears they have to pay flood insurance right now … I don‘t know what that will do to the value,’ Streeter said. ‘I think these storms are going to be on people’s minds for a long time.’ Listings for storm-damaged homes being sold ‘as is’ or ‘for land value’ are already popping up locally. Some may even sell at a loss. Take, 1843 Oregon Ave. in St. Petersburg’s Shore Acres neighborhood. The owner paid $511,000 in 2022. They previously listed it for sale in September, before the hurricanes, with an asking price of $535,000. That listing was removed. Now, it’s been back on the market for about two weeks with an asking price of $385,000. Streeter said he’s starting to hear about off-market short sales for the first time since the 2008 housing market crash.”

“Working out a cash deal with an investor may be a good option for some homeowners who are looking to get out quick. But Beggins said the market is flooded with bad actors making low-ball offers. ‘Some people are just so damn scared, they’ll take anything,’ said Craig Beggins, CEO of Century 21 Beggins Enterprises. ‘We don’t want our customers falling prey to that.'”

The Telegram & Gazette. “A contingent of Central Massachusetts homeowners have been living what they described as a ‘nightmare’ for the last seven years, when the first among them discovered their foundations had been poured with tainted concrete and now are crumbling to dust, their homes in danger of collapse. As they discussed the issue, several of them shouted out what they had paid to mitigate the problem. One said $280,000, another $250,000, a third $162,000. And it’s all out of pocket as homeowners insurance does not routinely cover foundations.”

“‘There is no way to recover the cost,’ said Michelle Loglisci of Monson, adding that because of the extent of the structural damage and the possibility of imminent collapse of the home, banks will not issue a loan to cover the costs as the building loses all value. ‘It’s daunting. We can’t change jobs, can’t downsize, can’t sell the home,’ Loglisci said. ‘This is not just a Western Massachusetts or Central Massachusetts issue,’ said Loglisci, noting that homeowners in Dracut and Bedford have found their foundations are crumbling as well. ‘This is a massive loss to the community,’ Loglisci said.”

“Karen Riani, a Holden resident, said she and her husband discovered the damage when they took down a wall in their basement. The homeowners called in basement repair specialists for the 19-year-old foundation. One offered a $30,000 ‘fix’ with no guarantees, another said it was a ‘bad pour’ and a third suggested they call a structural engineer. The walls were bowing in Riani’s home. The couple paid $280,000 for repairs, which came to 80% of what they had paid for the house in 2013. They spent down their savings, took funds from their 401(k) accounts and even dipped into retirement savings. ‘It was a crisis,’ Riani said, adding that the longer the delay in mitigating the problem, the worse the damage becomes. As if loss of the equity was not anxiety-provoking enough, homeowners live in fear of imminent collapse of their homes.”

The Daily Mail. “A California family has filed a lawsuit claiming a real estate developer botched the construction of their dream home, forcing them to live in rental properties because they do not feel safe inside. Jill and Matt Spaulding purchased their $1.6 million four-bedroom, three-bath dream home at 3250 Lama Ave in Long Beach in the spring of 2022. But after closing on escrow – a decision they said they were pressured into – the couple discovered horrific defects in the property. ‘This story is so much worse than a bad flip or a contractor cutting corners. It is a story of our family being exposed to many toxic health hazards that we may be dealing with for years to come,’ Jill told The Orange County Register.”

“The parents no longer felt comfortable letting their children – now ages 5, 3, and 7 months – live in the house, so they bounced around between hotels and Airbnbs until settling into a rental property in Los Alamitos in May 2023. ‘The amount of hardship that this flipper and his businesses have created for our family cannot be put into words. The effect this has had on us physically, financially and emotionally is indescribable,’ said Jill. The Southern California News Group reported there are no records of building permits issued to RS Real Estate Plus for renovations at the Spaulding’s home.”

The Union Tribune in California. “A couple of years ago, life science companies were fighting for office leases and developers couldn’t meet the demand fast enough. But now, that hunger for square footage has diminished, and the region’s available office and lab buildings have swelled to an all-time high. It’s a stark contrast to the beginning of 2022, when San Diego’s life science vacancy rate hit an all time low of 1%, or 188,000 square feet. The scarcity of available space in San Diego’s life science core had businesses fighting for leases and paying top dollar.”

“‘San Diego went through an unprecedented amount of construction as it related to life sciences,’ said Taylor DeBerry, senior associate of JLL’s life science group. ‘So really, what happened is we just oversubscribed on space and landlords just started building like crazy.’ DeBerry said the current situation can be traced back to that period of overexuberance. A big part of this construction boom stems from record levels of venture capital financing in 2021 that led to unprecedented growth for life science companies. During the third quarter of this year, San Diego recorded about 3.8 million square feet of life science space under development. In the third quarter of 2019, there was just under 700,000 square feet in development.”

Bisnow on California. “The 289-key Radisson Oakland Airport hotel’s valuation plummeted in October, with its value falling from $75M in January 2018 to $15M. It is the latest Bay Area hotel to exhibit signs of financial distress in an economic landscape dramatically changed by the pandemic. The new appraisal represents a 70% decline in value and covers only about half of the $28.2M CMBS loan’s current exposure, Morningstar wrote in a report. The property’s diminished value moves the loan collateralized by it one step closer to foreclosure, Morningstar Credit Analytics’ Senior Vice President David Putro said in an email. It was used as a temporary shelter for homeless residents during the worst of the pandemic but resumed normal operations by August 2023. Since the property’s value is so low, Putro said the borrower probably has little incentive to remain involved with the property ‘as any workout would require a capital injection. In the short-term, I assume the hotel will function normally,’ Putro said. ‘The servicer has likely (or is likely in the process of) putting a receiver in place, so they’d operate the hotel and make sure bills are being paid, etc.'”

Business in Vancouver in Canada. “As a tight provincial election reveals a deeply divided electorate, the pace of new home construction is stagnant, pointing to significant challenges, and choices, ahead for the next B.C. government. ‘When projects get cancelled and less homes are being built, the price is going to be sticky and won’t go down,’ said Rick Ilich, CEO of Townline Homes Inc. Another factor in B.C.’s housing starts is the Real Estate Development Marketing Act, which gives developers a limited window in which to secure pre-sales. Ilich said the audience for pre-sales has shrunk due to legislation targeting Airbnb operators and non-resident owners.”

“‘As a rule of thumb, if I have a $100 million loan on a project, the bank is going to want to see close to $100 million of pre-sales in place [in order to unlock unconditional financing], which will often equate to 65 per cent of the number of homes,’ he said. ‘The likelihood of that happening under current marketing conditions over the last couple of years is zero. Consumers are worried about value, and there’s no question that jobs and incomes have not kept up with the rapid cost of construction. The mood’s off. Pre-sale campaigns are very slow. The amount of people coming through pre-sale centres is shockingly low, and so all of that equates to the industry slowing down construction, not starting more projects.'”

The Vancouver Sun. “American interest in Canadian real estate increased this summer as the U.S. presidential election campaign kicked off, according to a new report from Royal LePage. The real estate company said after months of regular traffic U.S. visitors to its Canadian real estate site surged 104 per cent in the week of June 16 to 22 compared with the previous week before the first presidential debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and then-presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. Traffic further increased the following week on the heels of the debate, hosted by CNN on June 27, that ended with calls for Biden to step down after a disastrous performance, with an additional four per cent jump.”

“‘The polarization that has occurred in American life around elections in particular has caused more people to feel distressed and search for some kind of therapeutic outlet,’ said Phil Soper, president of Royal LePage. ‘Call it a bit of online therapy. Look at a house in Vancouver and say, ‘Oh God, I could live in Vancouver and get away from it all’. Clearly the increase in volume is coming from Democrats who view Canada as a great big blue state.’ Despite the recent spike, Soper is skeptical the numbers translate to actual immigrants. ‘There’s a huge difference between aspiration and action,’ said Soper, adding he doubts many visitors have even looked into immigration requirements set out by Ottawa let alone take steps to apply. ‘Americans make up a relatively small percentage of Canadian immigrants,’ he said. ‘And elections in the past haven’t led to a material increase in that regard.'”

Domain News in Australia. “House prices in several Victorian tree-change and sea-change towns have dropped over the past year due to home buyers’ increased borrowing costs and gradual return to CBD offices. The local government area that recorded the steepest decline was the Yarriambiack Shire, in northwestern Victoria, down 22.9 per cent in 12 months, to a median of $185,000. It was followed by the LGA of Corangamite, down 11.9 per cent to $415,000. House prices in Mansfield (down 10.9 per cent), Strathbogie (down 9 per cent), Bass Coast (down 8 per cent), Hepburn (down 6 per cent) and the Surf Coast (down 4.6 per cent) also fell.”

“Michael DeVincentis, director at BigginScott in Daylesford, said he is experiencing an oversupply of listings in the Hepburn region. He said many sellers are expecting to sell at pandemic prices, but this is deterring buyers. ‘It’s no good having a high price if no one’s going to pay it… That’s starting to adjust as buyers aren’t willing to meet those expectations,’ he said. ‘Some people locally have had their mortgage repayments go up by 50 per cent making it difficult to cope because the rents haven’t gone up that much. [People are] finding that their holiday accommodation is not getting booked as much as well,’ he said.”

“KPMG regional economist Terry Rawnsley said the decline in regional prices are reflective of a ‘cooling-off period post-COVID.’ ‘You have a big influx of people, remote workers, coming into these places during that COVID period. But after a period of time, some people might want to return to Melbourne and there’s no new big city buyers coming in to sort of keep the prices up,’ Rawnsley said. Rawnsley said many who purchased ‘weekender’ homes in coastal areas when interest rates were low are now re-evaluating their investments. ‘With interest rates increasing over the last few years, people might have been having to sell properties into the market. So there’s probably a bit more of a lack of demand for higher-end properties in those locations.'”

From Bloomberg. “China Vanke Co. suffered another loss in the third quarter, underscoring the property developer’s challenges even after the government rolled out stimulus measures to support the sector. The Shenzhen-based company reported a net loss of 8.1 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), bringing its combined losses for the first nine months of the year to 17.9 billion yuan, according to a statement to the Hong Kong exchange on Wednesday. State-backed Vanke’s debt troubles show how even the highest quality developers have been ensnared by the unprecedented slowdown, now in its fourth year.”

“‘Vanke’s solvency in 2025 and 2026 could be increasingly at risk of an unrelenting sales slide,’ Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kristy Hung and Monica Si wrote in a note on Thursday. ‘The developer’s contracted sales could be poised for an extended slump as its intensifying cash crunch sabotages its project pipeline. Vanke’s cash burn rate is a fire alarm for policy rescue,’ Hung and Si said in the note.”