If You’ve Got A Number In Your Head, You’ve Got To Get That Number Out Of Your Head And Focus On What’s Selling

A report from Associated Press. “Scrambling to replace their health insurance and to find new work, some laid-off federal workers are running into another unexpected unpleasantry: Relatives cheering their firing. Riley Rackliffe, who was working as an aquatic ecologist at Lake Mead National Recreation Area in Nevada, was buoyed that his firing led so many friends and relatives to reach out, offering to pass his resume along, call their congressman or even help with his mortgage. Mixed with that, though, has been the vitriol. When his firing made the local news, a Facebook posting of the story led to a storm of comments deriding him and championing the layoffs. One person called Riley, who is 36 and holds a Ph.D., a ‘glorified pool boy’ whose job nearly anyone could do.”

“Even some of Rackliffe’s friends paired their expressions of consolation for Rackliffe with support for cutting jobs they contended were unnecessary government bloat. ‘Hey, I’m sorry you lost your job but I think we really need to cut out some of this waste in the government,’ Rackliffe said one friend texted him, saying he supported DOGE’s aims. ‘He basically said, ’We’ve got to do this. We’ve got to rip off the Band-Aid.’ What stings most, Rackliffe says, is the contention that people like him were lazy and worthless, collecting big paychecks for meaningless work. ‘It’s really hurtful for the president to insinuate that you don’t exist or that your job consisted of sitting at home doing nothing and cashing the paycheck,’ he says. ‘I’d like to see him sifting through spiny naiad in 120-degree weather looking for parasitic snails. He’s the one that goes golfing on the government dime. I don’t even know how to golf.'”

Federal News Network. “They’ve put in a few years, have performed solid work. But, being part of what Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought calls a bloated and corrupt bureaucracy, they’re forced to move on. One of the people I spoke with in depth, seeing the dismissals coming, didn’t give the reformers the satisfaction. He cleared his desk, went on leave, and told his supervisors to include his position when the RIFs actually hit. Try and save someone else’s job, he told them. I’m referring to a 37-year-old married man with a 3-year-old toddler and a mortgage. He considers himself fortunate in that the family lives efficiently and could do just fine on his wife’s salary alone. She works in the private medical field.”

“He conducts or oversees contractors conducting research surveys necessary to inform policy. Because the administration has ordered the cancellations of so many contracts, Joe senses the default career path of going to a contractor is pinched off. He’d be glad to work in the non-profit or business sector outside of government contracting. But like many people his age I’ve spoken to in public service, he wouldn’t work at just any company. In particular, he would avoid a company the products of which would be inimical to his values. Joe said that, should his department decide it needs him after all, he’d return to work there, but only until something better came along. In other words, the DOGE approach has rendered his connection to the federal government as strictly transactional, drained of the noble call of public service.”

WSOC in North Carolina. “Inside Kim Ferguson’s house in Hickory, the floor mat says, ‘This is our happy place.’ She hoped it would be but then she found out about a lien. ‘Angry. A dream became a nightmare,’ she said. Ferguson says the dream of someday owning a home was a journey four years in the making. The City of Hickory had an affordable housing project and in 2022, it sold 10 parcels to JRN Development. In exchange, the contractor had to build 10 houses and sell them to people earning less than 80% of the area’s median income. Ferguson was one of those people. She says she moved in and a manager from the project stopped by. “He approached me here at the end of the driveway and was telling me, ‘Don’t freak out. There’s a letter going to come and there’s a lien on my house,’ she said. ‘Four years long coming to get a home and now it’s like was it worth it?’ Ferguson said. ‘I have a home. I’m thankful,’ she said. ‘But that lien is hanging over my head. I want a peace about it.'”

From CBS News. “A proposed Florida bill could strip state-backed Citizens Property Insurance from condo associations that fail to complete mandatory structural integrity reserve studies, potentially leaving thousands of residents without coverage. ‘Our board is doing everything they can to keep us afloat, and at the same time, the people in the buildings that don’t attend these meetings just don’t understand,’ said Tony Fratianni, a resident of the Sunrise Lakes condo community in Sunrise. ‘I don’t know if you can get water from a stone.’ A recent study by the Miami Association of Realtors found that only 44% of condo buildings in Miami-Dade County and 41% in Broward County have completed their studies.”

“‘We’re not asking for safety to be ignored. We’re asking for elderly communities to be listened to,’ said Walter Raser, a concerned resident. ‘In this situation, safety should not override the cost. It’s literally gonna cost people their homes.’ Peter Zalewski, who runs CondoVultures.com warned that if Citizens drops coverage, private insurers are unlikely to step in. ‘If Citizens is saying, ‘No, we’re not gonna insure you,’ I can bet the house the private sector is not going to insure,’ Zalewski said.”

The Globe and Mail. “An estimated one million Canadian ‘snowbirds’ – seniors and retirees who winter in southern states such as Florida and Arizona – inject billions in tourism spending during their months-long stays in the United States. But under an executive order from President Donald Trump, these visitors will soon have to register to travel south of the border, as part of an effort to curb illegal immigration. Mr. Trump’s order, called Protecting the American People Against Invasion, is believed to be the first time in history that the United States has included Canadians in a crackdown on undocumented migrants.”

“Already, a weak loonie and high insurance costs are fuelling an exodus of Canadian homeowners from the Sunshine State. Canadians made up nearly one-quarter of foreign sellers in Florida between April, 2023, and March, 2024, compared with 11 per cent a year earlier, according to the National Realtors Association. It’s estimated that roughly half of Canadian snowbirds own real estate in the U.S., according to Snowbird Advisor. ‘This is a requirement that should be rescinded immediately. You’re sending the wrong message with these policies and this rhetoric,’ said Evan Rachkovsky, spokesperson for the Canadian Snowbird Association. ‘The whole point of the executive order is to get illegal migrants to register. Yet Canadians are being lumped in, so we see it as just another headwind in an already very difficult environment for Canadian snowbirds.'”

From Culture Map. “A new real estate report has shown a slow decline in new home sales across Texas, including in Dallas-Fort Worth. The three-month moving average of new home sales in DFW was 1,847 last month, versus 1,990 sales in December. Active new home listings in DFW flattened from December to January, with 8,287 active listings on the market last month. The report found new home sales dropped not only in Dallas-Fort Worth, but also in Austin, Houston, and San Antonio. ‘January sales are often lower than December in Austin as builders push hard to close the year with as many sales as possible, as I mentioned in last month’s report,’ said HomesUSA CEO Ben Caballero . ‘Austin builders were offering discounts, buyer incentives, and Realtor bonuses for December closings. A slower January is not unusual for that reason.'”

San Francisco Examiner in California. “In the South Bay, a frenetic homebuying extravaganza propelled by surging tech-sector stocks is helping to drive up home values. But, at least so far, the tech-fueled housing boom seems to be having only a limited effect on San Francisco’s market. ‘We’re actually seeing that the city of San Francisco is slowing down a little bit,’ said Hannah Jones, a research analyst with Realtor.com. For the past two years, the typical home in San Francisco has sold for about $1.2 million, according to an analysis of market data by real-estate website Zillow. That’s about 12% lower than homes were selling for prior to the pandemic. It’s a significant reversal for the Bay Area’s housing market, in which San Francisco homes once easily outstripped the value of those in Santa Clara County.”

KTLA in California. “The Housing Authority of the City of Los Angeles (HACLA) has stopped processing housing applications for 3,300 families due to federal funding reductions in the Section 8 program, the agency confirmed to KTLA 5. According to the agency, nearly $800 million is brought into the local economy through rental payments to private property owners and developers on behalf of the program participants. HACLA warns that budget uncertainties could affect over 13,000 property owners who rely on these subsidies to maintain stable housing for tenants. The local authority is funded by the federal government and told the L.A. Times that it doesn’t expect Congress to provide enough cash this year to maintain current operations.”

Bisnow New York. “As multifamily distress spreads across the city, many lenders have wound up with losses on their books from borrowers who handed them the keys to underwater assets. Some wish there were more consequences for borrowers, who have been able to wipe their hands of the troubled buildings. So they’re creating them. Lenders are adding more recourse provisions into newly originated loans in order to make it harder for multifamily landlords to simply relinquish ownership, finance insiders said Thursday at Bisnow’s New York Multifamily Development and Investment Conference.”

“In Manhattan, multifamily property values have dropped from $940 per SF in 2019 to $679 per SF in 2024, according to a report from Ariel Property Advisors. In that time, cap rates have ballooned from 4% to 6.2%. ‘Banks are coming and approaching [sponsors] directly for short sale opportunities, where the sponsors just don’t have the capital, the equity, to put it in,’ said Northern Trust Bank Senior Banking Officer Chris Mitchell. ‘A lot of those deals that come to us, they did not have any recourse provision built into them back in 2019, 2020, so it’s much easier to hand back the keys when there’s nothing on the back end that they can come after you.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Alexis Victor, a real estate agent with Royal LePage Signature Realty is currently sitting on about 30 listings, made up of leftover inventory from last year and new supply coming on. She estimates 107 properties in the surrounding areas will be relisted after failing to sell last year. One homeowner she spoke with recently is resigned to selling in the mid-to-low 700,000s after purchasing the property in the mid-800,000s near the peak of the market. ‘If you’ve got a number in your head, you’ve got to get that number out of your head and focus on what’s selling,’ she says. She points to one riverfront house near Washago, Ont., which was listed with an asking price of $1.7-million nearly two years ago. After a series of price cuts, the property is now listed for $1.299-million. ‘They’ve been chasing the market down since 2023,’ she says.”

“In Vaughan, Achint Ahluwalia, a broker with Re/Max Realty Specialists, has been struggling to sell the house he purchased and renovated with his extended family. Mr. Ahluwalia has seen a pickup in buyer interest at 62 Silver Fox Place in the 10 days since he cut the asking price to $4.99-million, but buyers are hesitant to place an offer on the table. ‘I’ve been getting showings,’ he says. ‘Nobody’s coming on paper.’ Mr. Ahluwalia first listed the house for sale with an asking price just below $7-million more than one year ago. He and his family members were not as motivated to sell at the time, he says, because they were still wavering about staying in the home, which includes eight bedrooms with ensuite bathrooms.”

“The house with nearly 12,000-square-feet of living space also has a large kitchen, elevator and home theatre. He purchased the sprawling home near Bathurst Street and Elgin Mills Road W. in 2022 for $4.15-million with his brother and parents. The house, built in the mid-1980s, was rundown, he says, so they extensively renovated to make the building suitable for three generations, with three primary suites, for example. The house has been sitting on the market since. The tumult in the overall market has added to his stress. ‘Being in real estate, it has been a bad three years,’ he says. ‘It has been really tight.'”

BBC News in the UK. “An MP has called for a full police investigation after the collapse of a Kent property business allegedly triggered losses of £40m for about 150 people. Clients say JVIP Group told them that they could receive more than 10% interest on their investments, but many of the companies linked to the group folded in 2022. Mike Martin, MP for Tunbridge Wells, has written to the commissioner of the City of London Police to urge the force to take responsibility for an investigation into alleged fraudulent activity. Documents showed that companies in the JVIP group received more than 40 government-backed loans, each of about £50,000. The government’s Bounce Bank Loan scheme was set up in April 2020 with the aim of keeping small businesses afloat during the Covid-19 pandemic.”

“In his letter to temporary Commissioner Peter O’Doherty, Martin said the majority of those who invested in JVIP were ‘ordinary people.’ ‘The impact has been absolutely devastating, with many of our constituents losing all their life savings and suffering severe financial hardship,’ he said. ‘Constituents have told us they’ve lost their pensions, been forced to sell their family homes and have had to claim benefits for the first time in their working lives.'”