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At First, I Thought This Would Be Temporary

A weekend topic starting with the Texas Tribune. “When Kathy Whitmire ran for Houston mayor in 1981, helicopters were among the top sources of municipal strife. Residents of the Memorial neighborhood were irate over the daily noise of west Houston businesspeople who opted to fly over the gridlocked freeways for their morning commutes. That’s just how over the top the Texas economy had become as oil prices skyrocketed in the 1970s and into the early 1980s.”

“Whitmire won the race. But a plunge in oil prices effectively resolved the noise complaints. And about about a year into office, her problems became bigger and more unexpected. ‘All of the party was over,’ Whitmire said in a recent interview with The Texas Tribune. ‘At first, I thought this would be temporary.’ Instead, the oil bust engulfed the decade.”

“Money sloshed around the state as independent oil producers took out millions in loans to buy the equipment needed to drill. And then there were the banks, jewelers and car dealerships that catered to the overnight millionaires. Real estate soon emerged as the most noteworthy outlet for Texas money. With growth in commerce and in population, it seemed quite logical at the time to invest big in new housing developments, soaring skyscrapers in Dallas and Houston, shopping centers, and vacation condominiums on South Padre Island.”

“The most prominent of Texans shrugged off their lack of business pedigree and leveraged themselves to the hilt in oil and real estate. And one in every 20 commercial Bell helicopters sold on the continent ended up in Houston. The only uncertainty in those days was just how high the prices of oil would go. Then, everything fell apart.”

“The bottom hit in 1986. But historical context was no help to oil producers who plunged deep into debt buying up rigs amid the frenzy to meet anticipated demand. The economic angel of death for oilmen came in the form of bankers calling in loans. ‘The Dairy Queen was filled with the usual hardbitten but dejected crowd — noveau riche only a few months earlier, now nouveau bankrupt,’ Larry McMurtry wrote in his 1987 novel ‘Texasville,’ set in a bust-era fictionalized version of Archer City in northwest Texas.”

“And it was not just the small-town guys. Perhaps the most famous bankruptcy happened to a resident of the fashionable River Oaks neighborhood — former Gov. John Connally. After Connally sold off his Austin home and Houston condominium to pay off debtors, national reporters descended onto Houston in 1988 to cover Connally as he tearfully auctioned off his possessions to pay off only a fraction of his debt. But he would not be alone in despair. The pain hit prominent Texans across the state.”

“The pullback of spending and real estate collapse exacerbated the problems. Tax revenues plummeted, and governments cut services. Many older Texans who lived through 1980s turmoil wince at the memories. Republican Cyndi Taylor Krier represented San Antonio in the state Senate and saw firsthand as government officials dealt with the fallout. Since those days, they made sure to keep some cash on hand for another crash. It’s a sentiment Krier endorses for governments as well. ‘If there’s one thing that Texans should know is that we live in a cyclical economy, whether it is oil and gas, or agriculture,’ said Krier. ‘You can’t assume you’ll always be on top of the mountain.'”

From Bloomberg. “Desiree Duff lost her bartending job in late March when the New York restaurant where she worked closed along with the rest of the city. Duff, 29, an aspiring actress, left her apartment in Brooklyn’s Bushwick neighborhood and moved back in with her parents in South Carolina. The ordeal has left her rethinking the city’s appeal. ‘Not knowing what my future there looks like does make me reconsider,’ Duff said. ‘Maybe after my lease is done I should move elsewhere, to a smaller city that was less infected, as much as that breaks my heart.'”

“As cities from New York to San Francisco have locked down in recent months to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, many residents have decided they’d rather wait out the pandemic elsewhere. The exodus has left apartments empty, remaining roommates scrambling to make rent, and landlords wondering whether demand for apartments will return when life gets back to normal.”

“‘It’s a really hard time for the renter, but it’s a really hard time for the housing provider, too,’ said Charley Goss, government and community affairs manager at the San Francisco Apartment Association, which works on behalf of property owners. A survey Goss conducted of 352 San Francisco landlords found that 17 percent — an unusually large amount — have had tenants break leases or give 30-day notice to vacate over the past month. Of those surveyed, a fifth said they’d received requests for temporary or permanent rent reductions.”

“Demand for apartments in San Francisco and New York — the country’s two most expensive rental markets — has dropped since the start of the pandemic. Even when the lockdowns lift and the economy begins to recover, Goss said he expects the rental market in San Francisco to stay slow — possibly permanently so — as more people embrace working from home.”

“‘People won’t need to be in a job center if they can work from home,’ he said. ‘I would expect to see less demand, and that corresponds to lower rents.'”

The Colorado Springs Gazette. “Mortgage loan servicers are companies that, for a fee, provide services to mortgage loan investors. Those services include collecting and accounting for borrower payments, managing tax and insurance escrow accounts, and dealing with delinquencies. Mortgage loan servicing was historically a high volume, low margin business where money was made by employing as few people as possible (and, in my experience at least, putting all calls on hold).”

“However, at the time of the Great Recession, when the housing bubble burst and loan delinquencies soared, the mortgage loan servicing industry quickly became dysfunctional and bad things started to happen.”

“Since we are now entering another period of rampant mortgage loan defaults (an epidemic of default) and new government mitigation programs are being created, the loan servicing industry is again on the front lines, and knowledge of a few of the provisions of Regulation X, Subpart C, might prove useful.”

“Finally (for today) are sections 1024.40 and 1024.41. These sections require mortgage loan servicers to help borrowers understand what ‘loss mitigation’ programs might be available to them; promptly process applications for any such programs; and assign named personnel to a borrower such that he or she can (imagine this!) actually deal with the same people on a recurring basis. Also, per section 1024.41, a servicer can’t commence a foreclosure until a loan has been delinquent for at least 120 days.”

From Bankrate. “Fully 3.6 million homeowners were past due on their mortgages as of the end of April, the highest level since 2015, mortgage data firm Black Knight said Thursday. Nationally, the delinquency rate nearly doubled. In March, as the coronavirus began to affect the U.S. economy, just 3.39 percent of borrowers were behind. In April, when economic activity ground to a halt, that figure soared to 6.5 percent.”

“The fallout from the pandemic has been spread unevenly among states. The sharpest increases in delinquencies came in states that fall into two categories — those that rely heavily on tourism, and regions that bore the brunt of the pandemic.”

The Oregonian. “The crushed economy and widespread unemployment won’t result in a flood of residential property foreclosures, predicts George E. Perkins, a broker with 20/20 Properties who has handled distressed properties since the high-mortgage interest year of 1985. Holding back foreclosures: Current laws protecting homeowners and renters, and low interest rates.”

“Here are Portland homes that are bank owned for sale. 3932 S.E. 16th Ave. in Portland’s Brooklyn neighborhood is listed at $329,900. ‘Huge price reduction. Move-in ready home in a highly desirable neighborhood. Will not last,’ says listing agent Valerie Hunter. 13231 S.E. Buford Court in Portland’s Pleasant Valley is listed at $484,900. ‘Huge reduction. Huge vaulted master suite with a walk-in closet and soaking tub. Buyer to perform due diligence and verify all info,’ says Hunter. Annual property taxes are $6,104.”

From Complete Colorado. “From the stock market peak of February 12, 2020 to its low point on March 23, the Corona Crash plunged the Dow and other market indexes almost 40%, wiping out nearly $10 trillion in market capitalization. The world’s 500 richest people lost more about a trillion dollars in wealth on paper. If your 401-k now seems more like a 301-k, you may be wondering where all the money went.”

“Financial markets look to the future, and the value of a company’s stock is based on its prospects — good or bad -—as perceived by investors. Yes, you can cash in on the market value of your stock the day you sell it, but if you don’t sell it that day, you take your chances on what it will be worth tomorrow. A house you bought for $200,000 could triple in market value over time, at which point you might calculate it in your net worth at $600,000. If the housing bubble bursts and the market value of your house drops to, say, $300,000, it takes your net worth on paper along with it.”

“Collective optimism in a bull market drives up stock prices, in general. But bull markets don’t go on forever.Collective pessimism has the opposite effect as demonstrated by the fear of impending doom brought on by COVID-19. Historic market crashes in 1929, 1987, 1999 and 2008 were driven by major financial shocks from things like over-leveraging, the S&L collapse, sector bubbles, the mortgage-market implosion or ‘irrational exuberance,’ as Alan Greenspan put it. The Corona Crash is something entirely different. It isn’t a typical market correction.”

“As a future investment strategy, you might take Will Rogers’ sage advice on making money in the stock market: ‘Don’t gamble! Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.'”

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This Post Has 147 Comments

  1. ‘we are now entering another period of rampant mortgage loan defaults (an epidemic of default)’

    I don’t know what’s going to happen. As I’ve long said it’s much more important to accurately see what is happening. The level of misinformation has never been higher, making that difficult. History has shown us what can be transformational events, like the 80’s bust. I’ll have a lot more to say about that.

    We have to consider if this CCP virus is going to be a game changer. As days go by, I’m convinced it is.

    1. I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

      P.S. Debt is slavery.

    3. I know some major players in shipping fulfillment…and they are crushing it. Commercial retail and office space, however, is getting crushed. When CEO’s realize that their square footage in the world’s most expensive cities aren’t necessary, they will reduce footprint. And competitors and smaller fish will take notes.

      1. It’s pretty basic: There’s a massive commercial real estate bubble that’s been going on for close to 30 years. The rents are TOO DAMN HIGH. A re-pricing of all real estate to what it was pre-bubble fixes everything.

        1. Pre bubble isn’t low enough. There will be less demand for offices than there was pre-bubble, and a lot more office space to fill.

      2. “…When CEO’s realize that their square footage in the world’s most expensive cities aren’t necessary…”

        Happening as we speak.

        I am/was located in one of those large tilt-up industrial complex buildings in South Orange County, complete with fancy front lobby, gym, and even a chef staffed delicatessen.

        I don’t have access to actual numbers, of course, but I am 100% positive that for my company (Fortune 50) office lease expenses are only number two to salary expense.

        Last week, I went in to pick up a notebook I forgot to take with me when we were all kicked out 10 weeks ago.

        Building now is nothing more than a colossally expensive ghost town.

        Even the security guard was nowhere to be found. (We all think they go to sleep back in the ship/receive area).

        1. but I am 100% positive that for my company (Fortune 50) office lease expenses are only number two to salary expense.

          My employer owns some pretty big campuses (Redwood Shores, Santa Clara, Broomfield) but also rents a lot of space in places where they don’t have a campus. I can definitely see leases not being renewed.

          What surprises me is that they never thought of this before.

          I can see other fall out from the WFH switch. Cars are going to last forever. I only put 3K a year on mine since I started WFH 3 years ago. Sure, the red neck boyz will keep buying trux, but I could see car and SUV sales falling down the stairs like a bowling ball.

  3. ‘The economic angel of death for oilmen came in the form of bankers calling in loans. ‘The Dairy Queen was filled with the usual hardbitten but dejected crowd — noveau riche only a few months earlier, now nouveau bankrupt’

    Long time readers may remember I was in a north Texas college, studying real estate, when this hit the fan. Like the mayor, most of us thought it was going to pass quickly. We were blinded to what had just happened. Each day after I dropped the RE degree, I would open the Dallas Morning News and read unbelievable reports about fraud in commercial real estate in the Dallas commercial markets, usually involving S&Ls.

    Then I started to see something quite different. Celebrities handing in the keys on expensive shacks. That kept coming. I couldn’t figure it out. These people owned lots of houses and still had money. Why were they bailing? At last I understood: it would be good money after bad. They were gambling the shack would keep going up in price, and when that was no longer possible, away they went. Soon millions in the oil states would follow.

    1. They were gambling the shack would keep going up in price, and when that was no longer possible, away they went.

      You were saying that 15 years ago and I was a little skeptical. I thought of mortgages as moral/ethical commitments and had a hard time believing that others didn’t. But I learned. Both that many people only care about the money and also that I tried to turn things into morality plays when it didn’t always make sense to do so. I try to follow the reverse golden rule now with banks and simply treat them the same way they would treat me if the situation were the other way around.

      1. The bankers have no shame when they seek bailouts that they know takes advantage of retirees and savers.

  4. “The bottom hit in 1986. But historical context was no help to oil producers who plunged deep into debt buying up rigs amid the frenzy to meet anticipated demand.”

    The lowest price I remember paying for a gallon of gasoline was about $0.87/gal in Louisiana in the Spring of 1986.

    3. I remember my parents pulling the station wagon into the full service station and saying “fill it up with ethyl.”

      1. I also remember ethyl when I was a kid! It was gone by the time I started driving, though.

  5. ‘Real estate soon emerged as the most noteworthy outlet for Texas money. With growth in commerce and in population, it seemed quite logical at the time to invest big in new housing developments, soaring skyscrapers in Dallas and Houston, shopping centers, and vacation condominiums on South Padre Island’

    ‘The most prominent of Texans shrugged off their lack of business pedigree and leveraged themselves to the hilt in oil and real estate. And one in every 20 commercial Bell helicopters sold on the continent ended up in Houston. The only uncertainty in those days was just how high the prices of oil would go’

    I knew a guy who had just got into banking in 1985 in Dallas. Shortly after, the bank laid off 80% of the staff and kept him on to foreclose on people, one after another, every day. I asked him what was the problem. Leverage, he said.

    He parted by telling me this: the only things that can make a deposit on a Mercedes in Dallas are pigeons. The pawn shops filled to the brim with Rolex watches and thousand dollar boots made with exotic leather.

  6. Allow me to re-tell a story about this blog. I first got to Sedona AZ in 2003 to work for the winter. People I met were giddy with shack prices soaring. I thought it was odd but went back to Texas that spring. I got back to Sedona in the fall of 2004, and the excitement had spread to every nook and cranny of the Verde Valley, and pretty much everywhere in between Texas and Arizona. I had a bad feeling about this situation and started this blog a few months later.

    ‘You can’t assume you’ll always be on top of the mountain’

    An important point: we didn’t realize at that time in Texas that what we were experiencing was not normal. Regular people who suddenly owned a private jet wasn’t normal. High school kids driving Maserati’s wasn’t normal. I knew a 15 YO girl who got two matching Mercedes (different colors) for her birthday. I think about this when I read about people making billions from money losing companies. Like the article says, money sloshing around. And it ain’t going to end well because people are people and make lots of bad decisions when their heads are filled with non-reality.

    Today we just experienced a period where nobody needs to work! Forget about your mortgage and rent. Sure. Irrational times get exposed eventually. Safe deposit boxes in the sky was always crazy talk. But for years the media spun that tall tale. How much luxury everything have we been producing for a long time when at the same time we’re told people are paying half their income for housing? At some point, reality was going to reassert itself.

    1. At some point, reality was going to reassert itself ??

      It always does…The pendulum swings….

      1. I read that people flying into Hawaii is off something like 97%. I also read that people who are traveling to STR are driving. There’s the real parts of the CCP virus, and the fear. How long does it take to wear off? Does it ever completely wear off? It may be that RE in cities does change for good. If so a bunch of money will evaporate. There’s already food lines in Hawaii and Las Vegas.

        1. We’re all gonna fly to Hawaii to celebrate crushing the curve when they flip the switch on the eCONomy. All will be good.

        2. “I also read that people who are traveling to STR are driving. There’s the real parts of the CCP virus, and the fear. How long does it take to wear off? Does it ever completely wear off?”

          – I cancelled air travel for this week (DEN-TUS). I don’t see it being low enough risk at this point. In addition, I read this article about how packed the airplanes are, which was a factor in the decision not to fly.

          https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-airlines-packed-flights-d926ddcd-62e2-4f5f-92e3-3da9b32576e4.html
          May 20, 2020 – Economy & Business
          Airlines pack in customers like there’s no coronavirus
          Dion Rabouin

          “As restaurants, department stores and other local businesses grapple with operating at half occupancy (or less) to comply with social distancing guidelines, airlines are packing customers to near capacity on a reduced number of flights.”

          “How it works: In March, many airlines reduced the number of flights they offered by as much as 90% through the end of May, and as travel demand has picked up, they’ve simply loaded new passengers onto the few remaining scheduled flights.”

          – Reference article. As I recall, this article was posted on the HBB recently as well:

          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-sam-zell-sees-economy-120000487.html
          Billionaire Sam Zell Sees Economy Permanently Scarred by Pandemic
          Erik Schatzker
          Bloomberg May 5, 2020

          (Bloomberg) — Sam Zell, the billionaire known for buying up troubled real estate, said the coronavirus pandemic will leave the same kind of impact on the economy and society as the Great Depression 80 years ago, with long-lasting changes in human behavior that imperil many business models.
          “Too many people are anticipating a kind of V-like recovery,” Zell said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We’re all going to be permanently scarred by having lived through this.”

          “Just as the depression left behind a generation that couldn’t shake the experience of mass unemployment, hunger and desperation, the burdens this crisis has forced on society may be similarly hard to forget. Zell, 78, said it won’t be easy for people to live as they did before the “extraordinary shock” of the pandemic.”

          “He expects some amount of social distancing and working from home to persist long after the acute phase of the outbreak is over, possibly for years. Retail, hospitality, travel, live entertainment and professional sports are some of the industries he sees continuing to struggle.”

          “How soon will anybody get on an airplane? How soon will anybody stay in a hotel? How soon will anybody go to a mall?” he asked. “The fact that these places may be open doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll be doing business.”

          “Those sellers that wanted to sell still remember the prices that were available seven or eight weeks ago. The buyers are looking at a very different world and expecting to see significant discounts,” he said. “When you’ve got that big a spread, nothing happens.”

          – I’m still not seeing a “V”-shaped recovery here…

          1. ‘Economy Permanently Scarred by Pandemic’

            I’m leery of “everything has changed” pronouncements. He may be right or not. But it seems to me a lot is at stake. So the logical thing to do would be weed out the hysterical. First these people who were off by 80-90% in models need to be ignored.

            I’ve been involved in small business all my adult life. As a public accountant I saw many varieties of operations, what worked and didn’t. It’s a more fragile ecosystem than most would think. It was way dangerous to just shut things down like they did. You may have heard that a large percentage of businesses fail. Imagine what that number could look like in 3 to 6 months.

          2. It was way dangerous to just shut things down like they did.

            – I agree that the shutdown was/is the incorrect response to the CCP virus. The economic costs are too high, and I don’t know effective it was/is in reducing infections and “flattening the curve” (?). Certainly NY/NYC completely failed in their responses, and with other states/cities in varying degrees of failure.

            – Many Asian countries had a better response, based on previous experience w/ SARS 2002-2004 and H1N1 (Swine Flu) 2009. Singapore, Taiwan, S. Korea responses were good: Testing+Tracing+Face Masks (everyone)+Social Distancing. I don’t recall that any of these countries “shut down” their economies, and yet the number of cases and deaths were MUCH lower than Europe and U.S.

            – IMHO, the U.S. was totally unprepared for the pandemic; something that occurs every several years, and the response was late. For example, PPE stockpiles weren’t replenished after the H1N1 pandemic. This was the fault of both Obama and DJT admins. That’s just one example.

            https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/21/how_fear_groupthink_drove_unnecessary_global_lockdowns_143253.html

            How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns
            By Yinon Weiss
            May 21, 2020

            “Politicians claim lockdowns were the cause of fewer deaths”

            “It would be highly embarrassing to force citizens to quarantine themselves only to later admit it was all a colossal blunder, so it is easier for politicians and modelers to claim the lower death rates were based on the lockdowns themselves. It was a success!”

            “But several inconvenient thorns keep bursting that narrative — and none larger than Sweden,  the only Western country not to lock down its citizens. Sweden never closed borders, restaurants, businesses, or primary schools. The only legal action officials took was to ban events that entail crowds larger than 50 people.”

          3. Probably a long WWWWWW recovery as the virus waves crash. It burned itself out in New York, but no other states have been hit all that hard yet. There are plenty of cities with close to NYC density, stuffed full of potential victims. I expect another wave will be kicking off by fall in all those places, and we’ll see the REAL pandemic in action.

            … or maybe it’s just over. Time will tell.

          4. As restaurants, department stores and other local businesses grapple with operating at half occupancy (or less) to comply with social distancing guidelines

            The “epidemic” has been over in NY state for weeks, yet we insist on keeping everyone hyper.

        3. I read that people flying into Hawaii is off something like 97%

          Easy to believe, given that the TSA said they were screening 90+ percent fewer people, across the country.

          The number of flights departing McCarran here in Vegas seemed to be down to about 5-10 per day at one point. However, the last two days or so, traffic has picked up noticeably. Though of course still nowhere near normal levels.

          Also…what is STR? 🙂

    2. “in the fall of 2004”

      August 2004 I got a job with a bank that later received a TARP bailout selling HELOCs on commission. Never say I didn’t do my part in fueling Bubble 1.0.

      America isn’t a country, it’s a game.

      1. “America isn’t a country, it’s a game.”

        – IMHO, It’s some dystopian combination of “The Hunger Games” + “Game of Thrones.”

      2. I noticed back then they started putting cute little girlies and gamer guys in the front office of wells fargo selling mortgages. The old folks were in the back….that got me very suspicious.

        1. My cousin is a newly minted one, with a brand new business degree. He’s a fairly smart, very charming guy, should do well. Those on the other side of the desk, maybe not so much.

        2. America isn’t a country, it’s“Idiocracy” come true.

          Sad but true!

  7. ‘Author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said governments had been spooked by ‘flawed scientific papers’ into imposing lockdowns which were ‘inefficient or late’ and had little effect.’

    ‘Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than Covid-19 itself,’ he claimed.’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347635/Lockdowns-failed-alter-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html

    1. The Narrative that will never be discussed is that the pre-existing conditions that increase risk of death from Chinese coronavirus are predominately self-inflicted. Obesity, diabetes, hypertension, which are caused by poor diet and lack of exercise.

      Put down the fork and go take a walk.

      1. A lot has been said about the CCP virus and the flu. We’ve all been exposed to flu for a long time. None of us had been exposed to CCP virus. It seems to me in that context the death rate is lower than the flu. What if we had never been exposed to flu before and suddenly it popped up in one period? How many would die? A lot more than a “typical” flu season.

        I went to the chain store a couple of days ago. The meat department was overflowing. Sprouts even had an display of toilet paper, fully stocked.

      2. That narrative has been discussed quite a bit in the context of race. African-Americans and Hispanics are taking a disproportionate hit due to the co-morbidities. Guess whose fault it is?

        1. Structural racism caused them to be obese…they can’t afford healthy food at the supermarket I hear, and have to eat off the $1 menu at Ronnie Macs instead.

          1. A skydiving friend who is an USAF Pararescue PJ was delivering cases of water during Katrina. A phat black woman told him, “We want Root beer, not water!”

        4. There are plenty of alabaster chonkers wandering around, maybe obesity doesn’t have a strong effect on the outcome.

          1. The alabaster chonkers tend to live in areas without a whole lot of incoming international travel. Given this weekend’s utter failure to flatten the curve, that may change.

        6. If you see the footage of 1980″s tv shows, where the public were dancing or live shows, African Americans were the best elegant dancers. I don’t recall seeing anyone obese.
          IMHO, today’s societal health issues brought on by obesity are the promotion of two things: lack of incentive to work (social programs) and high fructose corn syrup in junk foods.

          2. A drug which I avoid like the plague… In fact, I presume it is because of people like myself that the “No high fructose corn syrup” label was invented.

            PS Yes I am white, and not overweight.

  8. 24 million people right next to the virus outbreak…

    It has recorded only about 400 cases of coronavirus and six deaths even though it lies off the coast of China, where the outbreak was discovered, and even after it saw a recent spike in imported cases.

    USA….1.6 million cases and closing in on 100,000 dead and counting….

    dereliction of duty ??

    “the shameful failure to fulfill one’s obligations”

    1. If you’re referring to Taiwan, please note travel between the PRC and Taiwan is not very easy. Chinese passport holders can’t simply go for a vacation the way Americans can visit Canada.

      Lots of flights route through Hong Kong.

      By contrast, there are tonnes of daily flights between China and the USA.

    2. Depends on how you define duty. Maybe this is about fixing our pension problems.

      1. Depends on how you define duty ??

        I define it like the military does..A head of state or officer in supreme command of a country’s armed forces…

        Derelict…

    3. cases and closing in on 100,000 dead

      At this point that number is just a narrative. We discussed long ago serious problems with the death attribution. The CDC changed its rules for certificates of death to drop Covid to the bottom line. Then it didn’t require a test, just a suspicion. These are deaths with Covid (or probably with Covid) not deaths by Covid. Doesn’t help that the hospitals have a huge incentive to report their patients have Covid.

      The other part of the narrative is continuing to headline “number of cases increases” without mentioning number of tests keeps increasing or that a certain percentage of the tests are known to be false positives. Let’s call those asymptomatic carriers!

      Part three I guess is this BS about the President being derelict of Duty. Realtors are false accusers.

        1. “Troll”

          Which part of BlueSkye’s post do you disagree with and if any explain why.

        2. You know, this isn’t the choir at the Washington Post, or the newly-invaded TheHill. We like arguments.

      2. Let’s just say there are “about” 100,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. and move on. The exact number may never be known, but we have a pretty good idea of how many deaths have occurred, and also of why the official death toll is most likely an undercount.

      4. We discussed long ago serious problems with the death attribution. It was once my job to fill out & sign death certificates. I was quite aware that government death statistics depended on the accuracy of what I wrote down. Neither I nor any other doctor I asked ever had a single bit of formal training on fill out these forms. I unearthed my grandfather’s 1915 death certificate from Michigan years after I retired. Cause of death: “Alcholic axcess” [sic] He was a logger when he died, so that is maybe where the “ax” came in.

  9. A weekend topic starting with the Texas Tribune. “When Kathy Whitmire ran for Houston mayor in 1981, helicopters were among the top sources of municipal strife. Residents of the Memorial neighborhood were irate over the daily noise of west Houston businesspeople who opted to fly over the gridlocked freeways for their morning commutes. That’s just how over the top the Texas economy had become as oil prices skyrocketed in the 1970s and into the early 1980s.”

    “The most prominent of Texans shrugged off their lack of business pedigree and leveraged themselves to the hilt in oil and real estate. And one in every 20 commercial Bell helicopters sold on the continent ended up in Houston. The only uncertainty in those days was just how high the prices of oil would go. Then, everything fell apart.”

    – “Houston, we have a problem [again].”

    “It’s déjà vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra

    “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” – George Santayana

    “As a dog returns to its vomit,
        so fools repeat their folly.”     – Proverbs 26:11

    From Bloomberg. “Desiree Duff lost her bartending job in late March when the New York restaurant where she worked closed along with the rest of the city. Duff, 29, an aspiring actress, left her apartment in Brooklyn’s Bushwick neighborhood and moved back in with her parents in South Carolina.”

    – New York, New York
    Frank Sinatra

    This little town blues
    Are melting away
    I’ll make a brand new start of it
    In old New York

    If I can make it there
    I’ll make it anywhere
    It’s up to you
    New York, New York

    From Complete Colorado. “From the stock market peak of February 12, 2020 to its low point on March 23, the Corona Crash plunged the Dow and other market indexes almost 40%, wiping out nearly $10 trillion in market capitalization. The world’s 500 richest people lost more about a trillion dollars in wealth on paper. If your 401-k now seems more like a 301-k, you may be wondering where all the money went.”

    “A house you bought for $200,000 could triple in market value over time, at which point you might calculate it in your net worth at $600,000. If the housing bubble bursts and the market value of your house drops to, say, $300,000, it takes your net worth on paper along with it.”

    – “A house you bought for $200,000 could triple in market value over time,” – Yeah, that’s normal.

    – “If the housing bubble bursts” – Wait. What? But I was assured that there’s no housing bubble (2.0). Is somebody a lyin’?

    “The Corona Crash is something entirely different. It isn’t a typical market correction.”

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/coronavirus-us-economy-collapse-recession
    Coronavirus
    Published March 20, 2020
    Coronavirus is the pin that burst U.S. economy’s bubble, says analyst who predicted 2008 crash

    Is coronavirus distracting from underlying economic problems?
    By Evie Fordham | FOXBusiness

    Jesse Colombo, an economic analyst who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, says the U.S. economy is in worse shape than many people realize, but he doesn’t blame the coronavirus pandemic that seemed to cause the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plunge in March.

    “Coronavirus is acting as a red herring,” Colombo told FOX Business. “People are thinking things are falling apart because of the coronavirus. It’s just the pin that burst that bubble.”

    “Colombo coined the term “bubblecovery” to describe the U.S. economy’s post-2008 recovery and skyrocketing debt. He has warned about the impending burst of bubbles found worldwide, from tech startups to U.S. shale energy companies, since 2019 and earlier.”

    1. Fake markets crash. In 1929 they got common folk to invest in the stock market when this was never really done by the sheep before.

      Everybody thought they were going to get easy money in the 1920s and it was a new prosperity that would never end.
      Happy Days Were Here Again, after the decade of World War One and the deadly 1918 Spanish Flu.

      Credit expansion was key in the 1920s. Credit for Stock margins was key to drive up stock price.

      I think it’s always faulty lending that is the true culprit in the fake markets that creates the boom/bust cycles.

      1. “Everybody thought they were going to get easy money in the 1920s and it was a new prosperity that would never end.”

        You know the gig is nearly finished when the little people are allowed to buy on margin.

        1. You know the gig is really finished when all the banks are closed, ATM’s stop dispensing cash, and your credit cards are not accepted anywhere by anyone.

      2. Your post reminds me of a question I keep pondering:

        What is going to become of the massive debt piles that the developed nation economies are piling up to battle the coronavirus? Will central bankers be able to wave a magic wand and make them all disappear?

        Stock markets are behaving as though this is a highly likely outcome.

        1. The Financial Times
          Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
          Global Economy
          Richest nations face $17tn government debt burden from coronavirus
          Fall in tax revenues set to push average debt-to-GDP ratio to 137%, warns OECD
          A passer-by wearing a face mask walks past shuttered shops in Tokyo, Japan. Now many other countries face a debt dilemma which Japan has confronted for decades
          © REUTERS
          Chris Giles in London and Robin Harding in Tokyo
          5 hours ago

          Rich countries are set to take on at least $17tn of extra public debt as they battle the economic consequences of the pandemic, according to the OECD, as sharp drops in tax revenues are expected to dwarf the stimulus measures put in place to battle the disease.

          Across the OECD club of rich countries, average government financial liabilities are expected to rise from 109 per cent of gross domestic product to more than 137 per cent this year, leaving many with public debt burdens similar to the current level in Italy.

          Additional debt of that scale would amount to a minimum of $13,000 per person across the 1.3bn people that live in OECD member countries. Debt levels could rise even further if the economic recovery from the pandemic is slower than many economists hope.

          Randall Kroszner, of the Chicago Booth School of Business and a former Federal Reserve governor, said the situation raised questions about the long-term sustainability of high levels of public and private debt.

          “We have to face the hard reality we’re not going to have a V-shaped recovery,” he said.
          …

          1. “Additional debt of that scale would amount to a minimum of $13,000 per person across the 1.3bn people that live in OECD member countries.”

            A question of interest is how this deep debt burden will be redistributed across individuals of the present and future generations.

            Unless the central bankers invent a means of magically making it dissapear…

          2. “Unless the central bankers invent a means of magically making it dissapear…”

            High inflation would at least reduce it, if not make it disappear.

            Perhaps there’ll be a global debt jubilee?

        2. I think the debts will live permanently on the Fed’s balance sheet, and will grow and grow and grow, until the zombie institutions they feed crowd out everything else, resulting in a steady degradation of our standard of living, ultimately resulting in war and/or famine.

          If that doesn’t happen, one day, all retail will be JC Penney and KMart. They will arise and crush their non subsidized competitors with a wall of cash such as the world has never seen! Cash of a biblical scale! They will not ship products.

          The internet will eventually fall into disrepair as our infrastructure crumbles. Video streaming will become non-viable, and BlockBuster shall arise groaning from its tomb. We will drive our broken down old cars over pitted roads to rent scratched up blurays that remind us of the days when everything didn’t suck so bad.

          Man… I feel a novella coming on….

      3. they got common folk to invest in the stock market when this was never really done by the sheep before.

        We’re seeing the same thing here, only with leveraged real estate. A hundred years ago those AirBnB moguls and purveyors of “passive income” would have been shining shoes.

    1. A sizable percentage of “middle class people” visiting food banks are freeloaders, pure and simple.

        1. “Filling up an Escalade with free food seems wrong on many levels.”

          Looking at the bright side a Lamborghini can carry considerably less free food.

          Greenwich nonprofits team up with local restaurants to get food to those in need

          By Ken Borsuk Updated 12:35 pm EDT, Sunday, May 24, 2020

          https://www.greenwichtime.com/local/article/Greenwich-nonprofits-team-up-with-local-15292078.php

          I think the note she leaves him says don’t forget to hit the Food Bank.

          https://youtu.be/fKNdoxRld34

        2. Filling up an Escalade with free food seems wrong on many levels.

          Do they really let you do that (fill up the car) or do they just give you a box with rice, beans and some cans of food?

          And given the looooong lines, is it worth waiting hours for $60 of groceries if you’re still employed?

          1. Ironically, the guy with a clunker is very probably much better off financially than the one with a late model luxury (financed) car.

            Poor, poor debt donkeys that fell out of the hamster wheel.

      2. “A sizable percentage of “middle class people” visiting food banks are freeloaders, pure and simple.”

        100% Look at the videos of the food bank lines that were all over the news about 4-6 weeks ago. ALL late model SUV/Trucks/Cars. No beaters, no cars filled with possessions. Just freeloaders and people in a panic.

        1. Or laid off people with no savings.

          It’s easy to think that people with shiny new cars have money in the bank. I used to think that. Now I know better.

          Remember, how half of Americans can’t come up with $500 for an emergency? Many of them drive a better car than you do.

          1. “Or laid off people with no savings.”

            Maybe, but I would guess 90% or so are freeloaders. I know most folks with new cars are broke. I shake my head when I hear co workers talk about car payments. But doubt these folks were totally out of money and credit.

            I always had a hard time believing that $500 for an emergency stat. It could be true, it may be true but I still doubt it. If you told me $1500 or $5000 I would believe in a second but $500 has me wondering.

          2. The people with the Escalades might have some savings, but why waste savings on food? You could save enough on groceries to make a payment or two on that Escalade. It might be enough to tide them over until the jobs come back. The question is whether the jobs will come back in a year, or two, or gone forever. (bad time to be middle management at an airline…)

            On a side note, the prepper culture encourages everyone to take advantage of freebies during a crisis, even if they are stocked up at home. The strategy is to make yourself look poor and desperate. If people notice that you’re not in the bread line and yet you still look well-fed, others will (correctly) guess that you have stores and raid your place for resources.

      3. I know someone who goes to a food bank. She told me there were a lot of non-Americans loading up on food then (probably) selling the food to their non-qualified relatives.

        1. My understanding that food banks don’t let you simply take everything you want.

          1. More data from the friend: they do try to pass off more food on you than you can eat. My friend had to cut her visits to every two weeks simply because she was bringing in more food than she could possibly eat. Another friend gets so much that it’s enough to feed both her and supplement her daughter’s family. It’s not all beans and rice. It’s any extra food, from pork roast to hemp protein bars. You just have to be willing to eat it faster because it’s closer to its expiration date. FYI don’t bother with fruit/veg. By the time produce gets to the food bank it’s pretty much gone.

            Some food banks check immigration status and others don’t. IIUC they all check income.

          2. “Some food banks check immigration status and others don’t.”

            Good place for a lic plate scanner; let the data do the talking.

          3. More data from the friend: they do try to pass off more food on you than you can eat.

            I’ve heard the opposite, especially now that the lines are miles long.

    1. A cello arrangement of the Knight Rider theme isn’t getting any love?! You don’t need a Twitter account to enjoy!

      1. I checked it out when you posted it since I like cars and music. Was never into Knight Rider, though…that was the period when my family had no TV. And that was pretty much the low point in the last 65 years for cars, even as cool as the show might have made it look. But yes, she played the song nicely :-).

    1. China has plenty of 6’5″ 275 lb thugs to send in to rough people up or take them away.

    2. China has plenty of 6’5″ 275 lb thugs to send in to rough people up or take them away.

      Hah hah. But seriously, what their cops lack in size they make up for by clearly having no obligation to serve the population. They work only for their bosses and nobody has any illusions otherwise. Having said that they’ve always been nice to me.

  15. Kind of a dreary day here in SE Region IV as anyone watching Tiger, Peyton, Brady and Phil Mickelson 20 minutes up US 1 from here could tell you.

  18. Harbor Bluffs, FL Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Gulf Coast Housing Prices Drop Like A Rock

    https://www.zillow.com/harbor-bluffs-fl/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist said, “I can ask $50k for my run down 10 year old Chevy truck but where is the buyer at that price? So it is with all depreciating asset like houses and cars.”

  19. I wouldn’t be against Texas. They’re used to failure and getting their economic ass kicked, just saying gosh darn it in rebooting for another shot.

    A proud Texan once told me that Texas poor is better than anyone else’s rich, because when things go south everything gets so cheap you just as well off anyway.

  20. Well low inventory, high prices, and low interest rates are making it difficult for first time buyers in Sacramento, California area.

  21. DebtDonkey was a rollin’ stone,
    rented a house from the bank with a loan, and when she died, all that was left was a loan.

    Los Alamitos, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Orange County Housing Market Turns Toxic On Skyrocketing Mortgage Defaults And Collapsing Demand

    https://www.zillow.com/los-alamitos-ca/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As an noted economist said, “With 25 million excess, empty and defaulted houses out there, there is no need to build more.”

    1. “DebtDonkey was a rollin’ stone,
      rented a house from the bank with a loan, and when she died, all that was left was a loan.”

      Schweet!

    1. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      Equities
      Hong Kong stocks drop as security law prompts new protests
      Legislation has raised concerns among investors over city’s future as financial hub
      Police fired tear gas and arrested about 180 people among the thousands who marched on Sunday to protest the new law
      © AFP via Getty Images
      Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong an hour ago

      Shares in Hong Kong fell almost 2 per cent a day after widespread demonstrations returned to the streets, as investors scrambled to figure out the implications of China’s move to impose a national security law on the city.

      The Asia financial hub’s benchmark Hang Seng index fell as much as 1.8 per cent on Monday morning after police fired tear gas and arrested about 180 people among the thousands who marched on Sunday to protest the new law.

      After months of violent anti-government demonstrations last year, the spread of coronavirus had resulted in relative political calm in 2020.

      However, that quiet was shattered by Beijing’s decision to draft legislation that would prohibit treason, secession, sedition and subversion, as well as permitting China’s state security services to maintain a formal presence in the semi-autonomous territory. China’s rubber-stamp legislature will pass a resolution on the matter on Thursday.

      Traders have expressed concern that Beijing’s move could undermine the territory’s status as a global financial centre, and potentially prompt official retaliation from Washington against a backdrop of rising US-China trade friction. The Hang Seng index plunged 5.6 per cent on Friday after Beijing announced the proposed legislation.

      “I don’t know how you disassociate Hong Kong from China in any type of [US] retaliation because they’re almost one and the same when it comes to the economies working in tandem,” said one Asia-focused equities and currencies trader.

      Some investors in the city had rejigged their portfolios in recent weeks out of concern that political tension could flare up again.

      Ronald Chan, founder of Hong Kong-focused fund Chartwell Capital, said he had significantly reduced his allocation to the city’s stocks ahead of the security law announcement. He is instead holding more cash and looking at opportunities in Japan.

      “We all knew this was going to happen. We have done what we can to hedge the market and brace for the storm ahead,” Mr Chan said. “The national security law could be the breaking point between China and the US.”
      …

  23. A nation of dummies …

    5 million student-loan borrowers may see their credit scores fall after CARES Act paused loan payments — ‘It’s another battle’
    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f8e47b6d-7f3f-3a73-8cd6-bfb84f81f58f/5-million-student-loan.html

    (snip)

    “The situation highlights the challenges consumers are facing as they navigate pandemic-era relief programs. It also underscores the complex web of companies the hold sway over Americans’ personal finances, companies that control how consumers are judged through a process that’s poorly understood by the average person.”

    What a bunch of ignorant pukes. The rational response for people would be to distance themselves from this “complex web of companies the hold sway over Americans’ personal finances” but this not what happens. Instead people eagarly embrace the opportunity to delve deeply into the realm of crushing debt slavery.

    Again, a bunch of ignorant pukes, a nation of dummies.

    1. “One of the lead plaintiffs in the suit, Cody Hounanian, who is also the program director for Student Debt Crisis, another borrower advocacy group, saw his score drop by up to 33 points while searching for a home, the lawsuit alleges. Borrowers on social media have also complained of double digit drops in their scores.”

      Might applying for a mortgage loan during a period when one has stopped repaying their student loans possibly send a bad signal to creditors?

      1. Multiple queries of your credit profile can indeed trigger a drop in your score. But, all kidding aside, it’s the late payments, judgements and charge-offs that they’re interested in seeing.

  24. If the German DAX stock exchange works like Wall Street does, then we should expect the index to go up today on bad news for the German economy.

    1. German economy enters recession as GDP falls 2.2%
      Published: May 25, 2020 at 2:24 a.m. ET
      By Maria Martinez

      The German economy posted its largest decline in output since the financial crisis in the first quarter and entered a recession due to the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown implemented in mid-March, the German statistics office Destatis said Monday, confirming a preliminary estimate.

      As previously reported, gross domestic product–the broadest measure of goods and services produced in an economy–contracted 2.2% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. GDP fell 2.3% on year in the first quarter on a calendar and price-adjusted basis, Destatis said, confirming the first estimate.

      This is the second largest decrease since German unification, following a 4.7% decline in the first quarter of 2009, Destatis said.
      …
      The lockdown started in Germany on March 22 and was less stringent than in other eurozone countries. Economists expect to see a sharper GDP contraction in the second quarter. With the German economy starting its gradual reopening on April 20, a larger chunk of second-quarter output will be lost than in the first quarter.
      …

    2. Does it seem like the tsunami tide of quantitative easing is standing the logic of stock markets on its head?

      Mon 25 May 2020 11:13:31 GMT
      Author: Justin Low
      The DAX goes in search of another leg higher
      The index is now gaining by nearly 2% on the session, looking to hold a break above the 30 April high @ 11,235.57. It is now trading to its highest level since 6 March.

      The market is adopting a more risk-on approach to kick start the week, although that is largely limited to the equities space for the time being. European bonds and major currencies aren’t really showing much enthusiasm throughout the session so far.

      But from a technical perspective, this break could keep the run higher in the DAX going towards a test of its key daily moving averages now.

      For some context, the DAX is trading up by nearly 37% from the low this year on 16 April.
      …

    3. Evil hoarders are saving money, rather than spending the Eurozone economy out of recession.

      The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      European economy
      European consumers stockpile savings, adding to economic drag
      Bank deposits surge as households seek to shield themselves from impact of coronavirus
      People queue in front of a bank in Pamplona, northern Spain. As European economies emerge from lockdown, many consumers are saving rather than spending
      © AP
      Martin Arnold and Olaf Storbeck in Frankfurt yesterday

      Bank deposits are surging across Europe as people respond to the economic and social upheaval of the coronavirus crisis by saving more, fuelling fears among economists that consumers will not come to the rescue of the continent’s shrinking economy.

      Savings rates in four of Europe’s five largest economies rose sharply to well above long-run averages in March, according to recently published data from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

      French savers put aside nearly €20bn in March, well above the long-run average monthly change in bank deposits of €3.8bn. Separate figures from the Banque de France show that by mid-May, the total had risen by more than €60bn since the country’s lockdown began — indicating that the growth of savings accelerated as the crisis deepened.

      Italian savers put aside €16.8bn in March, the ECB data show, compared with a long-run monthly average of €3.4bn, while Spanish households saved €10.1bn, up from an average of €2.3bn. UK household bank deposits jumped by £13.1bn in March, a record monthly rise, according to the BoE.

      Bank deposits in Germany fell sharply, but this was a sign that households had withdrawn cash. Germans tend to prefer to hold their savings in cash during a crisis and a similar phenomenon occurred at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. The German central bank reported that cash in circulation rose by €39.7bn between late January and early May.
      …

  25. An interesting article …

    ‘Nothing can justify this destruction of people’s lives’ – spiked
    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/22/nothing-can-justify-this-destruction-of-peoples-lives/

    (snip)

    Spiked: You have described the global response to coronavirus as hysteria. Can you explain that?

    Yoram Lass: It is the first epidemic in history which is accompanied by another epidemic – the virus of the social networks. These new media have brainwashed entire populations. What you get is fear and anxiety, and an inability to look at real data. And therefore you have all the ingredients for monstrous hysteria.

    It is what is known in science as positive feedback or a snowball effect. The government is afraid of its constituents. Therefore, it implements draconian measures. The constituents look at the draconian measures and become even more hysterical. They feed each other and the snowball becomes larger and larger until you reach irrational territory. This is nothing more than a flu epidemic if you care to look at the numbers and the data, but people who are in a state of anxiety are blind. If I were making the decisions, I would try to give people the real numbers. And I would never destroy my country.

    1. It’s a mass hysteria being exploited by sick dogs with a variety of agendas. See them for what they are. They would like nothing more than to see millions cast into poverty.

      1. Certainly there’s a better way to let freedom ring, than to put all of society under house arrest to provide blanket protection against a disease outbreak at the expense of pushing the economy into a depression.

        1. It’s taken a long time for me to realize that there are Powers that would love to throw people into poverty for some kind of agenda.
          Can’t believe that these entities care about people at all.

          1. ‘Creative destruction, sometimes known as Schumpeter’s gale, is a concept in economics which since the 1950s has become most readily identified with the Austrian-born economist Joseph Schumpeter[1] who derived it from the work of Karl Marx and popularized it as a theory of economic innovation and the business cycle.’

            ‘According to Schumpeter, the “gale of creative destruction” describes the “process of industrial mutation that continuously revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one”.[2] In Marxian economic theory the concept refers more broadly to the linked processes of the accumulation and annihilation of wealth under capitalism.’

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction

            There are lots of people who want to destroy the economy.

          2. “It’s taken a long time for me to realize that there are Powers that would love to throw people into poverty for some kind of agenda.”

            If you are interested in an expansion of this realization you might think of visiting me at my bank. A genuine real life and personal bit of enlightenment awaits you and is just one dotted line away from becoming fulfilled.

      2. It doesn’t make any sense at all but it is true. They’re going to get what they wanted. It’s already happening.

        The extent of the economic destruction is deep and wide and only a small piece of it has been revealed. Most are oblivious to what is coming. Only then will they realize the folly of paying too much for anything but in the case of the HBB, a house.

        Do any in the Donkey Herd still think it was a good idea to triple or quadruple their cost of shelter and borrow for a rapidly depreciating asset like a house? I’m sure the brigade of lying Realtors and ex-convict mortgage salesman and appraisers will chime in but they’re headed for jail so it doesn’t matter what they chirp. But how bout the DebtDonkeys? Care to weigh in with a hoof or two?

      3. millions cast into poverty

        There never was an epidemic in my county/region. The so-called numbers in NY say whatever epidemic there was ended completely weeks ago, yet all our shops are still closed. Our local hospital has been crushed. The parks are still shut.

        I wonder what people will say their take away is from this in six months.

        It’s Memorial Day. The town couldn’t muster any sort of parade, not even a few firetrucks. A local trucking company just roared through town with a dozen trucks decorated with flags and blowing their horns. Good for them! At least not everyone has lost their marbles.

        1. How do “sick dogs” get so much power? It would have to be the wolf in sheep clothing story. They have smiling faces until they reveal their true colors.

          1. ‘How do “sick dogs” get so much power?’

            Apparently by being appointed the county health admin by the mayor of pallokaville. But really because we don’t stand up and tell them to pound sand.

          2. I saw a guy on TV saying in summary that we need to close down for 18 months. How could that be a sane statement, and what was his agenda?

          3. They’ve already lost the argument. I read an article on a spontaneous gathering at a park in Canada. The police couldn’t do anything because there were so many of them.

        2. Good for them! At least not everyone has lost their marbles. This Memorial Day afternoon I saw a very short parade of 3 bright red convertibles bedecked with flags and ribbons going down our main drag honking their horns.

    2. They’ve already lost the argument.

      On public gatherings, perhaps. On education, hardly. I spoke with a representative from our school district on Thursday about my concerns that distance learning is impractical and untenable for many special needs students. I learned that the district is effectively paralyzed by extremely fluid and various levels of guidance. I set in motion yesterday an effort to get these kids’ education declared as “essential” with the backing of our children’s hospital. I suggest anyone with school-age kids watch their webinar about COVID-19 and its mental health implications: https://vimeo.com/416008861

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