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Many Investors Who Overextended Might Not Be Able To Hold On

A report from the Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Fear of a deadly contagion was great enough to prompt authorities to spare residents the threat of eviction, but it didn’t stop some people from losing their homes. Mike Mullen’s $9 million mansion in Old Preston Hollow is fashioned like a French chateau, with more than 13,600 square feet of space. The former NFL linebacker and oil rig tycoon has lived there since 2005, according to property records.”

“But on May 5, his lender sold the house during a Dallas foreclosure auction that no one attended — during the height of the coronavirus scare, according to a lawsuit Mullen filed. The sale occurred despite a notice in red letters on Dallas County’s website, saying: ‘Due to COVID-19, all Foreclosure Sales are Cancelled Until Further Notice.'”

“Christopher Hankins said he learned on April 15 while at work that his lender repossessed the 32-foot travel trailer in which he lived — from a lot in Sanger. It was hauled away with all of his belongings, he said. Hankins, 40, who owns an auto garage, said he was up to date on his trailer payments. But his two dogs were put on the street, and his trailer was hauled off with everything else inside, leaving him homeless.”

“‘I had to buy new underwear and socks,’ said Hankins, who is now living in a motel. ‘I had nothing. He stole it all.'”

“The situation is about to get worse, consumer advocates warn. Millions of Americans impacted by the economic crisis are skipping mortgage and other loan payments, and some COVID-19 hardship programs are set to expire soon. About 3 million auto loans and 9% of home mortgages are in some sort of forbearance plan, according to a report by National Public Radio.”

The Red Rock News in Arizona. “As life returns to some semblance of normalcy, signs of the Sedona area real estate market bouncing back are evident. ‘Inventory is low and buyers are eager to get out of cramped big cities and relocate to sunny Sedona,’ said Rick Wesselhoff, of Coldwell Banker. ‘We will likely see some underutilized vacation rentals come back on the market. It’s just starting to happen now with a few coming on the market every week. We’ve not been flooded with these, but it’s important to watch this segment of the market for movement.'”

“On those same lines of short-term vacation rentals, Wesselhoff said there’s two ways to look at it. First off, many investors who overex­tended might not be able to hold on. This is more likely true for investors who own multiple short-term rental units. Secondly, for those who are able to hold on, he thinks their deci­sions will be based on how well and how quickly the tourism industry recovers and how quickly weekly rental rates go up.”

“‘Depending on those variables, it might make more sense for them to sell or switch to long-term rentals,’ he said.”

“Tim Cox, of Realty One, said prices are not suffering as a result of COVID-19 but rather as a result of inventory levels. As of Wednesday, June 3, there were only 165 single-family homes available in all of Sedona including the Village of Oak Creek. There have been 181 sales of single-family homes this year to date and 499 in all of 2019. ‘Using 2019 numbers, we have four months of inventory,’ he said. ‘Generally speaking, above six months is considered a buyer’s market and under six is a sellers market.'”

From KHNS in Alaska. “For the first time in years, there are plenty of summer housing options available for renters in Skagway. The loss of tourism due to the pandemic means many seasonal workers will not return this summer, and their apartments are all empty. Nils Davis and his partner Skipper Stovall own and operate a car rental company and the coffee shop Bites On Broadway. Last year they had 11 employees working for them, but they’ve decided to stay closed this year.”

“Davis says he and his partner normally provide accommodation for their employees. They have 8 rooms available above their coffee shop. Now they are trying to see if they can rent them out to anyone looking for a place. They haven’t had any luck yet. ‘Which is really weird because it’s usually like you couldn’t find a closet to sleep in,’ Davis says.”

“But Davis isn’t the only one struggling to find renters. Skagway Brewing Company owner Mike Healy has also been trying to fill up rooms. Last year he carried out a huge expansion. Healy has multiple properties that he rents out. He says he usually turns away 50 to 150 people every summer because they fill up so quickly. These days he’s at about 20% occupancy.”

“There are some folks taking advantage of the vacant spaces. Healy says he has been able to lease some of his nicer properties. ‘Our nicer rentals for seasonal managers or key employees, we don’t need that this year, so we’ve dropped our rates and offered year long leases for people,’ Healy says.”

The Real Deal on Florida. “For the 10th time this year, condo buyers at Parque Towers in Sunny Isles Beach are suing the developer over allegations of selling units that were smaller than allegedly advertised. The latest suit, seeking class action, was filed by lawyer David Reiner on behalf of class representative Joseph Isacoff. It accuses developer J. Milton & Associates of misrepresenting the actual size of units in sales and promotional materials for the luxury project at 300-330 Sunny Isles Boulevard.”

“According to the suit, more than 200 buyers believed they were buying units measuring 1,860 square feet and 2,500 square feet, respectively, in the two-tower, 320-unit project. One of the towers is still under construction. Instead, at closings, the developer submitted surveyor certifications showing the units were approximately 1,560 square feet and 1,900 square feet, respectively, according to the suit. Reiner said the class action seeks $80 million in damages, which represents the value of the square footage that was allegedly shaved off.”

“‘This type of false advertising was more prevalent in pre-construction condominium sales during the last real estate crash, and most developers have been much more forthcoming in their promotional materials lately,’ Reiner said. ‘But Parque Towers continues to misrepresent the actual unit sizes.'”

The Oregonian. “The coronavirus pandemic instantly shifted many homebuyers’ desires. Suddenly, there’s less interest in walking to downtown eateries and more willingness to live remotely with extended family and with space to nurture self-sufficiency. Sellers still have a slight advantage because of low inventory, but when offers aren’t rolling in, the asking price usually drops. Here are 10 Oregon homes on big lots for sale with deep discounts.”

“21029 S.W. Lebeau Road is for sale at $1,999,999, a reduction of $400,001 since being listed April 27, 2019 for $2.4 million. 4318 S.W. Fairview Circus in Portland is for sale at $2.2 million, a reduction of $400,000 since being listed May 31, 2019 for $2.6 million. 11502 N.W. Laidlaw Road in Portland is for sale at $1,249,000, a reduction of $251,000 since being listed March 4, 2019 for $1.5 million. ‘Compelling new price!,’ says listing agent Lori Lane.”

“2909 S.W. Upper Dr. in Portland is for sale at $499,000, a reduction of $200,900 since being listed Sept. 20, 2019 for $699,900.”

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This Post Has 164 Comments

  1. ‘The sale occurred despite a notice in red letters on Dallas County’s website, saying: ‘Due to COVID-19, all Foreclosure Sales are Cancelled Until Further Notice’

    There’s foreclosures going on by the many thousands.

    1. Why the official appearance of a foreclosure moratorium, if foreclosures are actually spreading faster than COVID-19 in a riot zone?

    2. I called the trustee about a neighborhood NOD recorded on 2/26/2020. It’s on hold. I left a letter in their mailbox asking if they were interested in selling.

  2. ‘Tim Cox, of Realty One, said prices are not suffering as a result of COVID-19 but rather as a result of inventory levels. As of Wednesday, June 3, there were only 165 single-family homes available in all of Sedona including the Village of Oak Creek. There have been 181 sales of single-family homes this year to date and 499 in all of 2019. ‘Using 2019 numbers, we have four months of inventory’

    Using 2019 numbers, eh Tim? It was reported about a year and a half ago that 20% of the shacks in Sedona were STR. You guys are fooked.

    2. “Using 2019 numbers, eh Tim?”

      Wouldn’t it make more sense to project off the rate of sales since the end of March 2020?

  3. ‘Sellers still have a slight advantage because of low inventory’

    Always with the shortage crap.

    ‘but when offers aren’t rolling in, the asking price usually drops. Here are 10 Oregon homes on big lots for sale with deep discounts’

    One of these is on 20 acres. Why buy some little old shack for a couple million$ when you can have acreage?

    2. “One of these is on 20 acres. Why buy some little old shack for a couple million$ when you can have acreage?”

      This is something I never could understand. The mantra of “They aren’t making any more land” has some merit in that it is true.

      The amount of land is fixed, but the square footage of the house that sit on the land is not fixed; It can be whatever the builder decides it should be.

      But what is it that is advertised, what is the draw? Is it the size of the land, the stuff that is fixed? No, it is size of the building that sits on the land, something that can be varied.

      When talking about real estate the talk centers on square footage of the building as in price per square foot, that sort of thing. The size of the land is of secondary importance.

      IMO this is ass backwards.

      1. Not really…

        There’s a globe full of land where fully 95% of it goes undeveloped.

        If you paid much more than $500 to $1000 an acre, you got burned.

        Georgetown, TX Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Austin Area Housing Market Turns Toxic On Rampant Mortgage Fraud

        https://www.zillow.com/georgetown-tx-78628/home-values/

        *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

        A noted economist stated, “A housing ‘recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.”

        1. “There’s a globe full of land where fully 95% of it goes undeveloped.”

          Bingo! Technically being physically limited in size is irrelevant if the effective limit to a small fraction of physical supply is due to government decree. I’m not saying this is necessarily a bad thing. For example, where we live is technically inside the San Diego city limits, but we have lots of surrounding open space. And we also are amply socially distanced from looters, due in part to low density development.

          1. or example, where we live is technically inside the San Diego city limits, but we have lots of surrounding open space.

            Which can be seen as you fly into Lindbergh Field. Of course all of the desirable land, close to the coast, where it doesn’t get as hot as Hades in the summer, is in short supply.

          3. “…where it doesn’t get as hot as Hades in the summer,…”

            Los Penasquitos Canyon funnels the cool ocean air into our backyard. It’s probably around 10 degrees F cooler here on average than in Poway, three miles to our east. In the mid-60$ today…

          4. As Sellers Flee Coastal California’s Rapidly Deteriorating Quality Of Life Issues

            Pacific Beach. ‘Nuff said. Teardowns or gut remodels in Cardiff, Encinitas and Leucadia are still selling for at least $1.2M.

      2. All land is not created equal. A good 5000 square foot lot in a nice neighborhood is always going to be worth more than acres of wasteland.

        2. All land is not created equal.

          What? Are you saying that an acre in Bakersfield or Fresno isn’t worth as much as in La Jolla? Get out of here.

      3. Is it the size of the land, the stuff that is fixed?

        Land is a liability, if it is not forced into productive use. Scenery is a luxury few can afford when “land doesn’t go up”.

        1. Before real estate bubbles, the only way to really make money on land was to either put it to use farming, growing timber, etc., or to have strategically purchased something decades before that was in the way of some growth area (few had the foresight – luck – to accomplish that). Otherwise, it’s just a massive tax outlay each year.

          1. It’s crazy how the Fed has managed to inadvertently convince the entire world of western finance that the pathway to riches is to borrow huge sums of money to buy real estate, then HODL forever while future wealth gains roll in without pause.

            No wonder so many are leveraged out the wazoo with no cash reserves.

  5. While Hankins was moving the trailer in March, it sustained about $4,700 worth of damage. The insurance company cut a check, and Hankins said he decided to use some of it for his future trailer payments, “given the uncertainties” associated with the pandemic, his lawsuit said.

    Hankins said he could have had the damage repaired for less money. A dispute arose over the balance of the insurance payment, which led to the sudden repossession, he said.

    My gut feeling is that there is a little more to this story than the article is providing.

    1. “gut feeling is that there is a little more to this story than the article is providing”

      Sanger is in Fresno County — of course there’s something more happening. I was a public defender in Fresno for seven years and can safely say that shady sh^t happens in the towns around the City of Fresno all the time.

  6. Major long term democrat controlled cities are going to hollow out…from riots, looters, insane taxes, insane public unions and the pandemic.

    ‘Frantic’ New Yorkers snatch up unwanted homes in the suburbs

    Some houses in suburban towns and rural areas outside of New York City sat on the market for years.

    But then the pandemic spurred cooped-up urbanites to run for the hills and sparked an uptick in property sales within a few-hour radius of Manhattan. Many say they’ll never return to the city.

    Less dense spots are hot; the city is not…“People are looking to get out of harm’s way.”

    https://nypost.com/2020/06/04/frantic-new-yorkers-snatch-up-unwanted-homes-in-the-suburbs/

    1. ‘Frantic’ New Yorkers snatch up unwanted homes in the suburbs

      They should have kept running, at least until they crossed the state line.

    2. White flight is the social dynamic which led to the hollowing out of urban cores in the Rust Belt during the post-WWII period in the 20th century. Given telework and hightened security concerns due to the War on Police, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar white flight dynamic take hold in coastal Democratic-controlled urban dystopias.

      1. We were looking at some houses in other states this morning precisely because we want out of the crazy cities and states that declare that criminals should have more rights than law-abiding citizens and police.

        We’re both long-time Democrats, but that has been changing rather rapidly over the past few years. Seeing how the Dems have gone so far off the tracks, and seeing how they’ve behaved after Trump legitimately won in 2016 (we voted for Jill Stein because both of the mainstream candidates were repugnant), it’s impossible to think of the Dems as representing the interests of normal Americans ever again.

        1. Hi Ca renter.

          The Agenda 21 people who wanted to move all the cattle to the city must of taken a step back with Covid-19. Best laid plans by the Control Freaks that know best .

          1. Hi, Housing Wizard! Glad to see you again. 🙂

            Agree with you about Agenda 21 and how this is going to backfire on them…unless they use authoritarian measures to force people out of the suburbs and back into the cities. This will be interesting to watch.

            Cheers!

    3. I know the area West ave is a major 2 lane road with lots of traffic all day and even a bus stop in front of their house….. looks like from the picture they enclosed the garage made another bedroom in back and the cars stay outside in the snow.

    4. ‘Frantic’ New Yorkers snatch up unwanted homes in the suburbs

      Do these ‘tards really think the Gimme Dats and tax collectors are going to magically pull up short at the invisible dividing line between NYC proper and the ‘burbs?

      1. If Biden wins his team will start sending the gimmes out to Everywhere USA, for our own good, the way the Obama admin did.

        You can count on it.

    5. NY has been down this road before. In the 60s and 70s lots of folks (including my parents) fled NYC for the suburbs. The exodus didn’t last. In the early 70s the L.I.R.R. station in Smithtown was busy. When my mom drove down to pick my dad up in the evening the parking lot was full. When I took the train out there in 1997 the parking lot was empty.

          1. Being from the New Rochelle / Scarsdale border, I can safely say that they will fit in quite nicely in laramie.

          2. Not much vibrancy in the Cowboy State.

            Depends on what kind of vibrancy you’re looking for. Thanks to WyoTech being there, the cruising/street racing scene is great for a town that small. Jazz clubs? Not so much, Shanghai was better.

    2. Hey, by the way, didn’t this guy vote for Obama twice, then Shrillary last time? He’s not a Republican!

  8. Not really a COVID hard luck real estate story. More like a clerical mix up. But, the narrative must go on.

    ““Christopher Hankins said he learned on April 15 while at work that his lender repossessed the 32-foot travel trailer in which he lived — from a lot in Sanger. It was hauled away with all of his belongings, he said. Hankins, 40, who owns an auto garage, said he was up to date on his trailer payments.”

  9. Looting and rioting for social justice will really accelerate this trend.

    ““The coronavirus pandemic instantly shifted many homebuyers’ desires. Suddenly, there’s less interest in walking to downtown eateries and more willingness to live remotely with extended family and with space to nurture self-sufficiency.”

      1. I love the way the fake legacy new media (and Mattis) downplay the looting, rioting, arson and murders…like it never even happened servepro commercial.

        Or even justify the violence as a necessary tool to get things moving for “change.”

        Yet, one peaceful demonstrator for opening up the lock-down with just the wrong sign is front page news and are declared felons for wanting to kill people.

        They still don’t understand why Trump won.

        1. “They still don’t understand why Trump won.”

          Yep. Nothing helps the masses like the negative interest rates.

      3. Or even justify the violence as a necessary tool to get things moving for “change.”

        Is “change” a code word for reparations? How much are they going to demand? $50K per person? 100K? 200K?

      4. This reminds me of a burning question: How many black lives are lost each year due to black-on-black incidents, compared to white police officers?

        Don’t get me wrong. Police violence against people in custody of any color is a problem, as is discrimination against any group based on race.

        But if Black Lives is the concern, shouldn’t reform efforts address all sources of mayhem, instead of narrowly focusing on the police? Unless police incidents actually constitute a significant share of Black Lives lost…

        1. There’s an elephant lurking in the room. And abolishing the police may embolden it considerably.

          The Need to Discuss Black-on-Black Crime
          By Barry Latzer
          December 5, 2019 11:24 AM
          A suspect is handcuffed and detained by policemen (Jean Pierre Aime Harerimama/Reuters)
          In defense of a term

          Thomas Abt’s book Bleeding Out (2019) has garnered a fair amount of attention for its proposals to deal with gun violence in mainly black urban neighborhoods. The entire focus of the book is on interventions in high-crime locations to stem the violence, including: hot-spots policing, working with young males at high risk of engaging in violence by offering carrots (“we’re here to help you”) and sticks (“we’ll stop you if you don’t let us help”), and locking up known violent offenders.

          Lest you think this book is not about black crime, Abt states quite explicitly that “race matters when it comes to urban violence.” He points out that homicide-victimization rates for black men were 3.9 times the national average and that 52 percent of all known homicide victims were black (2017 data). He might have added that the perpetrators of these crimes were overwhelmingly African Americans. In 2018, where the homicide victim was black, the suspected killer also was 88 percent of the time. And this is not an exceptional situation. From 1976 to 2005, 94 percent of black victims were killed by other African Americans. In fact, as I will demonstrate, high rates of black-on-black killing have been the norm for well over a century. But this is not an issue Abt wants to address.
          …

          1. “The entire focus of the book is on interventions in high-crime locations to stem the violence, including: hot-spots policing, working with young males at high risk of engaging in violence”

            Which is very different from treating all the people in poor black neighborhoods as criminals and subjecting entire populations to paramilitary occupation.

          2. What if they enjoy the killing and violence? According to Hobbs little else invokes the stimulation realized from killing your enemies.

        2. I struck out the misleading take-home in the headline, which omitted the 2013-2019 (seven years) period mentioned in the article. Also note the number of white police killings of black victims is not mentioned.

          Deaths From Police Harm Disproportionately Affect People of Color
          There is not comprehensive government data on the topic, but an independently compiled database found that more than 1,000 people died as a result of police harm in 2019.
          By Deidre McPhillips, Data Editor 
          June 3, 2020
          U.S. News & World Report
          More
          The Associated Press
          A demonstrator raises their fist as others gather to protest the death of George Floyd, Saturday, May 30, 2020, near the White House in Washington. Floyd died after being restrained by Minneapolis police officers. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)The Associated Press

          More than 1,000 unarmed people died as a result of police harm between 2013 and 2019, according to data from Mapping Police Violence. About a third of them were black.

          About 17% of the black people who died as a result of police harm were unarmed, a larger share than any other racial group and about 1.3 times more than the average of 13%.
          …

          1. Approximate average numbers of unarmed blacks killed by police over seven year period from 2013-2019:

            17% × (1000/7) ÷ 3 = 8.

            Albeit, any number above 0 is troubling, but 8 per year is a lot less dramatic than 1000!

          2. By contrast, the CDC estimates that 9,908 black lives were lost to homicide in 2017. Using the 88% of black-on-black murders for 2018 to get a rough figure, about 8,700 of these were due to black-on-black crimes. That’s a pretty large elephant to ignore in the effort to blame all police officers for the crimes of a small handful of bad apples.

          4. Wow…my ballpark estimate of 8 wasn’t far off the mark.

            It seems like a shame to not address a small handful of such cases through the justice system, rather than through riots costing billions in property damage plus creating the risk of a second wave of COVID-19.

          5. It seems like a shame to not address a small handful of such cases through the justice system, rather than through riots

            You don’t get color revolutions via the court house.

          6. If black people really thought black lives mattered, they wouldn’t be slaughtering each other. I’m tired of this fooking nonsense.

        3. Have you read BLM’s what we believe site? They want to get rid of the nuclear family.

          At it’s core it’s pure Leftism. They don’t give a damn about dead people of any stripe.

          1. That’s one way to deal with the African American community’s household formation issues is to pretend it’s not important. Look at any survey on financial stability and you’ll learn that a stable nuclear family is highly correlated with stable household finances.

          2. “Have you read BLM’s what we believe site? They want to get rid of the nuclear family.”

            Hopefully our Asian-Americans have something to say about that since Caucasians appear to be cowards.

    2. I don’t think anyone has to worry about hoards of impoverished ghetto dwellers descending on outer burbs and rural areas.

      2. They’ll send them out with section 8 vouchers. It happened before.. and the crime followed them.

    3. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in this area, because over the past several years there has been a strong shift towards urbanism, with homes in or near trendy downtowns fetching considerably higher prices than those of similar square footage in the suburbs and townships.

      1. I am going to take:

        “Real Estate trends from the race riots of the 1960s in major cities”

        For $200, Alex…

        1. Many of the people who fled cities discovered that they didn’t actually like living in the boondocks.

    4. “Looting and rioting for social justice…”

      I wonder if any city’s “walk score” has been downgraded?

      2. I think it’s now been changed to a “run for your life in a zig-zag pattern” score. Choose your colors carefully before you leave the house each morning.

      3. I wonder if any city’s “walk score” has been downgraded?

        If the vibrant shops and cafes, along with the few grocers are gone …

  11. Re-post from the last thread:

    “More than 500 shops and restaurants in Minneapolis and St. Paul have reported damage when protests on five nights turned violent over the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police. Dozens of properties burned to the ground.

    Owners and insurance experts estimate the costs of the damage could exceed $500 million. That would make the Twin Cities riots the second-costliest civil disturbance in U.S. history, trailing only those in Los Angeles in 1992, which were also sparked by racial tensions with police and had $1.4 billion in damages in today’s dollars.”

    https://www.startribune.com/twin-cities-rebuilding-begins-with-donations-pressure-on-government/571075592/

  12. No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here:

    “It took five years for the economy to regain the 8.8 million jobs it lost during the Great Recession. This time, despite the job growth during May, roughly 20 million jobs remain lost. For every 10 layoffs, there have been three new hires, the University of Chicago study found.

    “The job picture is horrible,” said Nicholas Bloom, an economist who worked on the research. “I don’t see the U.S. labor market recovering back to full employment for another five to 10 years.”

    https://apnews.com/f6861a055dd8eb86e21e528bf4b54653

    1. “This time, despite the job growth during May, roughly 20 million jobs remain lost.”

      —

      “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/05/28/40-million-people-are-unemployed-skills-training-wont-bring-back-their-jobs/#5cb807ee2660
      May 28, 2020,10:46am EDT
      40 Million People Are Unemployed. Skills Training Won’t Bring Back Their Jobs.
      Wesley Whistle Senior Contributor

      “The economy has been wrecked by the coronavirus. More than 40 million Americans—a quarter of the workforce—have filed for unemployment.“

      – So is it 20M or 40M, or some other random number pulled out thin air (or dark places that aren’t in need of mentioning)?

      https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/06/05/us-unemployment-drops-unexpectedly-to-a-stillhigh-133
      Business & Economy
      U.S. unemployment drops unexpectedly to 13.3% amid outbreak
      The Associated Press
      Washington
      June 5, 2020 7:45 a.m.

      “U.S. unemployment dropped unexpectedly in May to 13.3 percent as reopened businesses began recalling millions of workers faster than economists had predicted, triggering a big rally Friday on Wall Street and giving President Donald Trump something to boast about in his reelection bid.”

      “Still, after weeks of dire predictions by economists that unemployment in May could hit 20 percent or more, the news that the economy added a surprising 2.5 million jobs last month is evidence that the employment collapse most likely bottomed out in April, when the rate reached 14.7 percent.”

      – In the same article (at the very end):

      “Friday’s report showed that the government continues to struggle with how it classifies millions of out-of-work Americans. The Labor Department admitted that government household survey-takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million temporarily laid-off people as employed.“

      “The government doesn’t correct its survey results for fear that will look like political manipulation.”

      “Had the mistake been corrected, the unemployment rate would have risen to 16.1 percent in May, while the corrected April figure would have been 19.5 percent, rather than 14.7 percent. Taken together, the two corrected numbers show that the overall trend still holds: Unemployment is going down.”

      – There’s a lot of disinformation out there on the health of the U.S. economy from all sides. Use your best judgement as to actual conditions. I’m in a “wait and see” mode, but remaining highly skeptical of any “V”-shaped curves, motions, trajectories, etc. The closest analogy from a historical perspective is the 1920’s and 1930’s. We’ll know more by this Fall (Q3, ’20), and just in time for the festivities of the Nov., ’20 election. It’s an election year. Caveat everyone. Interesting times indeed.

      “If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed.  If you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed.”  ~Author unknown, commonly attributed to Mark Twain or Thomas Jefferson

      1. This article seems to shed some light on the confusing jobs numbers.

        Jason Tank: Disconnect like never before
        BY JASON TANK 4 hrs ago

        The stock market is roaring back in the face of incredibly negative news of job losses, a deep recession and the specter of an uncertain economic recovery. Over the course of my career I have certainly seen moments of disconnect between the markets and the real economy. But, it’s safe to say that I’ve never seen as wide of a disconnect as I see today.

        During a very short five-week period from mid-February to late March, the stock market cratered about 40% and bonds nosedived. Not only was there no place for investors to hide, there was almost no time to hide. Now, a little more than two months later, both stocks and bonds have profoundly rebounded. While the pace of the recovery cannot be overstated, the feeling of whiplash for investors cannot be understated.

        Thanks to the unlimited backing of the Federal Reserve and Congress, Wall Street looks like it’s back, for now. But, let’s briefly review what’s happening on Main Street.

        We have about 30 million people collecting “official” unemployment. While this figure changes from week to week, it’s important to note that a growing number of employees are also being added back to payrolls, even if they aren’t really back to work. Many of their paychecks are being covered through loans that will be forgiven if the business promises to act as a “shadow” unemployment system. Between the official and the shadow unemployment system, it’s probably safe to say that around 35 million to 40 million people who worked just a few short months ago are no longer working today. The combination of official and shadow unemployment represents a Great Depression-like 20% to 25% of the approximate 160 million people counted in the nation’s workforce.

        As the economy’s reopening process unfolds, we should certainly expect many people to go back to work in some capacity. How many will head back is entirely dependent on the pace and path of the economic recovery. And, of course, much of that will be dictated by our collective approach to mitigating the spread of a novel virus that has no vaccine, limited therapies and no end date.
        …

        1. Way too many shenanigans going on. Just a firehose of FED and .gov money distorting the entire economy.

      2. In our engineering group, we called this type of data an RDE (Rectral Data Extraction).

      3. My parents in the People’s Republic of California had their hair cut at home this week.

        The horror. Mr. Newsom can’t easily tabulate it!

        1. “My parents in the People’s Republic of California had their hair cut at home this week.”

          Warren Beatty or did they cut each-other’s hair?

    2. So the economy will have recovered at some point between a couple of months from now and ten years from now, depending on which expert you ask?

    3. This time, despite the job growth during May, roughly 20 million jobs remain lost. For every 10 layoffs, there have been three new hires, the University of Chicago study found.

      So in a single month, during a partial reopening, a big dent has already been made in unemployment, probably better than in the first whole year of the previous admin.

      1. Were they real jobs, or pass-through unemployment benefits disguised as jobs to make the numbers look better? (See article I just posted whenever it appears…)

        1. And by the way, this seems very similar in substance to a Universal Basic Income program, except for the fraudulent messaging.

  13. No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here:

    “Three in ten adults (31%) say they have fallen behind in paying bills or had problems affording household expenses like food or health insurance coverage since February due to the coronavirus outbreak. Additionally, one in four Americans (26%) say they or someone in their household have skipped meals or relied on charity or government food programs since February, including 16% who say this was due to the impact of coronavirus on their finances. The share who say they have skipped meals or relied on charity or government food programs due to coronavirus is higher among those in households that have lost a job or income due to coronavirus (30%) and among Black adults (30%) and Latinos (26%).”

    https://www.kff.org/report-section/kff-health-tracking-poll-may-2020-health-and-economic-impacts/

  14. No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here:

    “Markets cheered on Friday as new data showed a surprising decline in unemployment, but black workers have little to celebrate.

    The black unemployment rate rose slightly in May despite a decline of nearly two percentage points for white workers, a grim but familiar reminder of economic inequality that could serve as an early warning sign for the recovery to come.

    Economists are warning that the devastation wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has already killed disproportionate numbers of black Americans, could also inflict long lasting economic damage, undoing the gains made by African-Americans over the last decade.

    “The thing that disturbs me is how much longer it will take them to make up the gap,” said Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, who served on President Barack Obama’s economic team.

    “It took 10 years to make back what they’d lost in the Great Recession,” Bernstein said, referring to African Americans. “They lost that in two months, in March and April. It’s the staircase up and the elevator down.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/coronavirus-recovery-black-workers-are-being-left-out-data-shows.html

      1. I recall reading that those in menial jobs were the ones with the biggest pay increases over the past few years, due to an abundance of unfilled menial jobs and minimum wage increases.

          1. Do they declare that on their taxes?

            I’m sure they’re paid in cash, though not enough to require brown envelopes.

          2. I’m sure they’re paid in cash, though not enough to require brown envelopes.

            Which means Soros is cheating the taxman.

          4. Which means Soros is cheating the taxman.

            I’m sure the moneys are claimed as going to worthy charities.

    2. but black workers have little to celebrate

      Gee, they burned down the places where they worked, and are now surprised?

      2. Reviewing all the Twitter videos of the past two weeks, the looters are not all minority youth. Consider also the planning and precision of the looting of high-end retail in Manhattan, these weren’t dumb thieving kids doing an opportunistic smash and grab.

        Antifa, which is 99% white, is responsible for 99% of all the arson, and is getting paid for it.

          1. Un-possible. The media talking heads assure me that white supremacists, boogaloo bois, and Russians are the real problem here. So clearly the color on your TeeVee is defective.

            BTW, why on earth would you feel any need to watch 100s of looting videos? I can’t stand to watch one.

        2. Antifa, which is 99% white, is responsible for 99% of all the arson, and is getting paid for it.

          Not a fan of Antifa, but I don’t believe that statistic for a minute. Antifa wasn’t around during the LA riots, and there was no shortage of looting and burning then – or in the worse riots still to come when a jury acquits the Minneapolis cops on the ludicrous charge of 2nd degree murder.

          1. “…or in the worse riots still to come when a jury acquits the Minneapolis cops on the ludicrous charge of 2nd degree murder.”

            Been having thoughts about that scenario; not good.

          2. the ludicrous charge of 2nd degree murder.

            The indictment itself contains the defense. Not-guilty is baked in the cake.

          3. The indictment itself contains the defense. Not-guilty is baked in the cake.

            Yup, those behind all this are baking the next round of riots. Which city gets burned to the ground next?

      3. “They” is no more all blacks than are the small number of white police officers who think it’s ok to kill a suspect by kneeling on their windpipe representative of all police. It’s dangerous thinking to equate the motives of a large group of people with the malicious acts of a few individuals.

        2. Kneeling on someone’s neck is not a malicious act when it is done for prevention of further criminal actions. It i also not murder either. when the death rate from such actions are less than the death rate from normal police actions.
          ‘ Under most modern statutes in the United States, murder comes in four varieties: (1) intentional murder; (2) a killing that resulted from the intent to do serious bodily injury; (3) a killing that resulted from a depraved heart or extreme recklessness; and (4) murder committed by an Accomplice during the commission of, attempt of, or flight from certain felonies.’

          But, it does make good media coverage for the media,when it increases their coverage.

          1. Is kneeling on someone’s neck something police are authorized to do?

            It seems like the opportunity to sort out the issues through the legal justice system has been trampled by Democrat-supported riots.

          2. In the military they train by rolling the abductee to their side once the ligatures have been fastened particularly for the obese. Also, using a permeable blackout hood greatly reduces the abductee’s tendency to forcibly resist.

        3. Prof…..both are idiot losers Chauvan should have been fired years ago, and Floyd…. it looks like Floyd was a deadbeat”father” like i suspected…… The siblings moved to Bryan from Houston more than 15 yeas ago, they told local television station KBTX. They were “knee high” when they last saw their father, Connie said. https://ktla.com/…/dont-fight-fire-with-fire-george…/

        4. kneeling on

          How would you suggest restraining a non-compliant 6’4″ 223lbs male high on fentanyl, methamphetamine and marijuana? It’s easy to second-guess when all you see is a 9-minute video clip hyped by the MSM. Based on the available evidence in the record at this time (i.e., criminal complaint, autopsy), depraved indifference is probably the highest level of intent an impartial jury could find.

          1. This situation brings to mind another “unarmed black man” situation: That of Michael Brown in Ferguson, four miles due west of my childhood home. Despite being “unarmed,” it seems like he posed a physical threat to the cop, who acted in self defense.

            The whole concept of armed white cops attacking innocent unarmed black men for sport doesn’t make much sense.

          2. high on fentanyl, methamphetamine and marijuana

            There was no way for the cops to know what he was on, so for them he was just “high” and anything was possible.

          3. A parolee getting busted for another possible felony is likely head back inside, and they’re not going down easily. It’s every cop’s nightmare.

          4. the cops to know what he was on

            Per the Statement of Probable Cause in the criminal complaint against Chauvin, another officer asked Floyd if he was “on anything.” His response was not included in the document. Again, the bodycams will be crucial at trial.

  15. No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here:

    “As millions of Americans return to work amid the worst economic crisis in a generation, they’re unexpectedly discovering their old positions are far more burdensome than they used to be. Their hours have been cut, their pay has been slashed and their responsibilities are now magnitudes greater.

    While roughly 30 million Americans are receiving unemployment benefits, some are retaking their old jobs as their states start to reopen. Their return to the workplace coincides with improving employment figures in hard-hit sectors such as retail and hospitality, said Nick Bunker, the economic research director for the job-listing site Indeed, who described the numbers as a sign of a “partial bounce-back.” The data offers early, encouraging news, suggesting federal programs had helped in preventing even more widespread, lasting unemployment, experts said.

    At the same time, though, Bunker said there was a higher-than-expected spike in part-time employment, one of a few indicators that “suggests there has not been a full return to work” for some people. Indeed also found that the highest rate of job growth has occurred within the lowest-wage industries, including some food and beverage stores, raising questions about the extent to which some Americans may be falling behind financially.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/06/workers-pay-cuts-coronavirus/

  16. But his two dogs were put on the street, and his trailer was hauled off with everything else inside, leaving him homeless.”</em

    Got you the makings of a great Country Western song there, Chris.

  17. Millions of Americans impacted by the economic crisis are skipping mortgage and other loan payments, and some COVID-19 hardship programs are set to expire soon.

    I have a hunch that now is not the time to tell the lighter-hued among these folks that they owe trillions in reparations for slavery.

    1. It is unfortunate that blacks were harmed in the Antebellum era by slavery, but holding all whites responsible is racist. Case in point: my ancestors didn’t show up in the U.S. until around the time slavery was ending, when my wife’s ancestors were trying to survive by farming the Utah desert. Are my kids somehow responsible for making reparations to the present generation of blacks for slavery that ended over 150 years ago? It amazes me how nobody seems able to recognize racism when it is focused against whites.

      1. Try posting this on Reddit and your comment will be muted by downvotes i.e. comment score below threshold.

        P.S. check your privilege…

        1. Martin Luther King’s vision of a colorblind society seems to have died the day he was shot.

          And I really don’t care what anyone else thinks about what strike me as plainly obvious truths. I personally don’t advocate racism in any form, including the reverse discrimination version which Democrats champion.

    2. I have a hunch that now is not the time to tell the lighter-hued among these folks that they owe trillions in reparations for slavery.

      Most of them are broke. If the Dems win in November they will borrow trillions to fund reparations. It will be a bonanza time for car dealers, big box stores, pimps and drug dealers.

      1. It will be a bonanza time for car dealers, big box stores, pimps and drug dealers ??

        LOL….And Fried chicken !!….DON”T forget the fried chicken !!….

  18. ‘We will likely see some underutilized vacation rentals come back on the market. It’s just starting to happen now with a few coming on the market every week. We’ve not been flooded with these, but it’s important to watch this segment of the market for movement.’”

    You keep trying to conjure up that non-existent demand, Realtor Boy. I’ll be watching these markets, all right, but only because I loves me a good slow-motion housing bubble cratering.

  19. As of Wednesday, June 3, there were only 165 single-family homes available in all of Sedona including the Village of Oak Creek.

    That’s because there’s no point putting your shack on the market now, because there are no buyers.

    1. there’s no point putting your shack on the market now, because there are no buyers.

      There are some buyers. Just not many at peak prices.

  20. ‘Which is really weird because it’s usually like you couldn’t find a closet to sleep in,’ Davis says.”

    And you thought that was a sustainable situation, Davis?

  21. “21029 S.W. Lebeau Road is for sale at $1,999,999, a reduction of $400,001 since being listed April 27, 2019 for $2.4 million. 4318 S.W. Fairview Circus in Portland is for sale at $2.2 million, a reduction of $400,000 since being listed May 31, 2019 for $2.6 million. 11502 N.W. Laidlaw Road in Portland is for sale at $1,249,000, a reduction of $251,000 since being listed March 4, 2019 for $1.5 million. ‘Compelling new price!,’ says listing agent Lori Lane.”

    Not compelling enough, Lori. Not by a long shot. Tell the greedheads to quit playing games and get serious with their sawin’ and slashin’. Of course I’m perfectly content to wait until the foreclosure auctions.

  23. Does it seem like real world economic disruptions are good for the stock market?

    1. Here’s another of many COVID-19 disruptions to the real world economy, as opposed to the fake, manipulated stock market.

      The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      Global trade
      Shipping industry warns of trade logjam as crew remain stranded
      Global economy at risk with 400,000 sailors stuck aboard vessels or in port
      A cargo ship approaches Piraeus in Greece as other vessels lie at anchor last month: some sailors have been at sea for 15 months
      © Petro Giannakouris/AP
      Peggy Hollinger, Robert Wright and Michael Pooler in London 45 minutes ago

      The international shipping industry has warned of a threat to global trade from a mounting crisis on board merchant vessels, with up to 400,000 crew stranded either at sea or at home by travel restrictions because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

      One German-owned tanker last week refused to sail unless replacement crew could be brought in, said industry executives and union representatives, amid concerns over rising fatigue and safety.

      The fear is that others will follow after June 16, when emergency extensions to the labour agreements governing seafarers’ contracts expire. Many crew have worked several months beyond their contracts, exceeding regulatory limits, and ship owners, unions and captains have sounded the alarm over safety.

      “It’s a ticking time-bomb,” said Guy Platten, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, representing ship owners and operators. “You cannot keep working people indefinitely. Some have been on their ship for more than a year. The longer this issue goes on the greater risk to the supply chain.”

      Maritime transport is the engine of globalisation. Around 80 per cent of world trade by volume is carried on vessels that range from container ships to fuel tankers and dry bulk carriers, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
      …

  24. The bovine herd is misreading last week’s selloff in long-term Treasurys as bullish for risk assets. Of course this means that the long-term risk free rate is increasing, which is a development which has historically preceded stock market selloffs.

    Note further that declining long-term risk-free rates to their lowest levels in recorded history underpinned stock prices rising to record highs over the forty year period from 1981-2000. Anything and everything that happens is a bullish signal for the stock market.

    2. Currencies
      How the U.S. dollar’s ‘almost silent slide’ is juicing the stock-market rally
      Published: June 6, 2020 at 2:46 p.m. ET
      By William Watts
      ICE U.S. Dollar Index down nearly 6% from March pandemic panic peak

      Investors might not have noticed it amid all the excitement, but a stealthy slide by the U.S. dollar should get some of the credit for the stock market’s stunning rally.

      The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, -0.18%), a measure of the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, rose 0.3% Friday to 96.70, but remained on track for a 1.4% weekly decline. The index had traded at a more-than-three-year high near 103 in mid-March as the panic created by the COVID-19 pandemic created a global scramble for dollars. The index has retreated around 5.9% from that peak, leaving it up around 0.6% for the year to date.

      “There were plenty of distractions last month but the almost silent slide in the greenback must go down as one of the most unremarked devaluations in history,” wrote Sean Darby, chief global equity strategist at Jefferies, in a Wednesday note.
      …

    4. How many times can the Fed implement QE4-ever?

      And for how long can it continue at its recent level before irreversible economic damage has been inflicted?

      …
      “Not too long ago we were in the midst of a terrible meltdown in the stock market. But it turned out to be a 33-day bear market lasting from Feb. 19 to March 23,” Yardeni said. “Ever since then, we’ve had a melt-up that’s all related to the Fed coming in with what I call QE4-ever.”
      …

  27. The Welfare State was a deeply flawed program that created a racket of power for a certain Political party.

    The welfare State created generations of people stuck in a life style of separation from the greater society. Gang infested areas were the by product of rewarding people for a counter culture.

    It’s not racism that’s the problem but rather welfareism that corrupts.

    You hear talking heads talking about giving 350 thousand per head to one race for slavery crimes from 3 half centuries ago.

    Meanwhile the Globalist Money changers have been looting the working class wealth , and the racism narrative keeps the heat off their hijacking of the American Dream .
    As long as the conversations never gets to why we shouldn’t of given up our job and manufacturing base to places like Communist China, than class warfare will continue under the false narrative of racism.

    Now the narrative that we should defund the Police and evil White people should kneel because they are the problem is beyond absurd.

    The problem is the power brokers got the Politicians to sell out so we have destroyed capitalism and the Constitution in favor of rigged markets and Commie BS .

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