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It’s Like Parachuting In The Dark, We Don’t Know How Fast We Are Falling

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Rising mortgage delinquency rates in Florida are raising fears that the coronavirus pandemic will lead to a foreclosure crisis as bad if not worse than the one that followed the 2008 housing crash. ‘At some point, the foreclosure moratorium will end and lawyers for the banks will start filing foreclosures and scheduling sales,’ said Bruce Jacobs, a Miami attorney. ‘Courts will be inundated.'”

“While agencies that oversee government-backed mortgages require mortgage servicers to offer loan modifications to homeowners who can resume monthly payments at the end of their forbearance periods, borrowers won’t qualify if deemed unable to make those payments, he said. ‘I think we stand on the precipice of a very sad era in America,’ he said. ‘Lots of very good people are going to lose their homes because the economy is not there to sustain them. It’s going to be far worse than 2008.'”

“It reads like the script for the business version of a disaster movie: office buildings lose 40% of their value, a third of hotels go bankrupt, residential rents plummet. Yet that, according to Barry Sternlicht, is the real-life future for New York real estate. ‘I think a quarter, a third of hotels in New York City could go bankrupt,’ Sternlicht said. ‘It’s going to be ugly.'”

“And if jobs move elsewhere, the residential market will collapse too. landlords are ‘desperate’ to retain young tenants and increasingly willing to cut apartment rents by as much as 25%, Sternlicht said. That’s where his ‘negative cycle’ kicks in. As New York’s income base erodes and strains on social programs and infrastructure intensify, he predicted that quality of life will deteriorate, more wealthy residents will leave and tax rates will inevitably increase on those who remain.”

“‘I think sales (volume) easily will be down by half. I think prices will go down 15 to 25%,’ said Hawaii real estate consultant Ricky Cassiday. He said studios in Waikiki have already seen significant declines due to the tourism shutdown and tougher new regulations and enforcement on illegal vacation rentals. He added that the real estate market will also be hurt by the exodus of thousands of Hawaii residents expected to relocate to the mainland to look for work. ‘We see our major industry going to hell in a hand basket. We see our major industry falling off the cliff,’ he said.”

“The number of homes sold in Calaveras County has declined significantly, according to the California Association of Realtors. In Calaveras County, the median sold price of existing single-family homes dropped from $352,000 in March, to $332,250 in April, to $330,000 in May, which was down 12% from May of 2019. California home sales in May fell to the lowest level since the Great Recession.”

“‘As housing demand fell in May, home prices softened further, sending the statewide median home price below last year’s price for the first time since February 2012 and breaking the state’s 98-month year-over-year price gain streak,’ the press release states. ‘The May statewide median price of $588,070 for existing single-family homes in the state was down 3% from April and down 3.7% from May 2019, when the median price was a revised $610,940.'”

“Homes selling at a discount were a common theme for L.A.’s priciest deals, with all the top properties trading for significantly less than the original asking price. A newly built mansion on North Bedford Drive traded for $8 million less than the asking price of $31.5 million. The Georgian-inspired home originally sought as much as $36.5 million when it first came to market last year. On Pacific Coast Highway, a modern Mediterranean-style home changed hands for about $8.5 million less than the asking price of $29.95 million.”

“On Clear View Drive, a contemporary-style home that was built last year sold for about $550,000 million less than the asking price. Originally listed in December for about $15 million, the multilevel house saw its price slashed to about $11 million in late March.”

“Local realtor Len T. Wong said Calgary’s housing market has definitely taken a hit lately. According to Wong, local sales volumes in April dropped by about 60 per cent compared with last year. ‘Which put pressure on prices a little bit, by about five per cent,’ he said. ‘And what we noticed with everybody psychology-wise is that they were panicking adjusting to the times.'”

“‘People have to realize that they have to price it right,’ he said. ‘We’re in year six of a buyer’s market, and so people have to recognize that you’ve got to be in front of people to see them because if you get too many houses in that area, it’s not going to sell.'”

“Zoopla found that where asking prices had been cut, sellers had offered the biggest discounts in Newcastle, with an average reduction of 11.2 per cent in May. Buying agent Henry Pryor said: ‘It is always difficult for sellers and selling agents to decide whether they should quote a price that will get knocked down, or whether they should quote a realistic price that recognises the turmoil we’ve gone through. It’s like parachuting in the dark. We don’t know where the ground is and we don’t know how fast we are falling.'”

“In the past five years, high vacancy rate has existed in the luxury segment of the market, especially in Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt, but worsened by depressed economic sentiment, and the excess supply of these properties – which is outstripping demand. ‘The property sector is suffering a decline in all sectors but most especially in the high valued luxury areas. Demand has gone down while the rate of default in payment of rents has gone up,’ according to Kola Akomolede, past president, International Real Estate Federation, (FIABCI) Nigeria Chapter.”

“Until about January 20, it was going swimmingly well for landlords in Dubai. And then it all went belly up for short-stay landlords. Bookings were cancelled at the last minute, funds had to be returned, and the properties left without occupancy since. ‘If this decline in travel continues into the second quarter, I am staring at steep losses, because there will be little or no interest during summer,’ – Dubai landlord.”

“Banks are being forced to reduce prices on foreclosed properties to recoup their loans, as buyers in Hong Kong become increasingly cautious. One foreclosed flat, measuring 468 sq ft at Cullinan West in western Kowloon, changed hands at HK$11.3 million in early May, about 27 per cent lower than its previous purchase price at HK$15.54 million in 2018, according to agents.”

“The pandemic has affected every aspect of the Chinese economy. Domestic consumption has slumped, overseas orders have plummeted, and factory lines in manufacturing hubs like Guangdong have ground to a halt. One man in his 50s, who gave only his surname, Xiong, said he tried going back to work at the end of March but found his job no longer existed. He tried looking for work elsewhere but the most he could get was a handful of days so he decided to go home. ‘I can’t pay the rent and have nothing to live on,’ he said.”

“By the middle of May, there were signs that things were getting even worse. Notices in the streets offered to sell the rights to factories. The official jobless rate in China was 5.9% in May. But that number only includes residents of urban areas, not the migrant workers who have returned home. China-based brokerage Zhongtai Securities estimates that the real number is above 20%, with more than 70 million now jobless throughout the country due to the pandemic.”

“Inner city Melbourne and Sydney homeowners are reeling, with suburbs in these areas posting the largest declines in property prices over the last two months. The Perth district of Mandurah has fared the worst, posting the largest decline in dwelling market value over the past two months. In fact, its May dwelling values were a whopping 38 per cent below their 2006 peak.”

“Homebuyers in Sydney’s new high-rise suburbs can party like its 2015 – apartment prices have become cheaper than they were five years ago. Suburbs where median prices are cheaper than in 2015 included North Ryde, Campsie, Forest Lodge and a cluster of suburbs around Parramatta such as Rosehill, North Parramatta and Granville. Median unit prices in these suburbs ranged from 2 to 18 per cent cheaper than in 2015, realestate.com.au data showed.”

“Prices fell largely due to oversupply and weakened buyer demand, with COVID-19 accelerating a trend of falling activity from investors, who have traditionally been the main market for units in high-density areas. Median unit prices fell the hardest in North Ryde where a mass new high-rise buildings were constructed over recent years. The average unit in the suburb cost $805,000 in 2015 but has since slumped to $735,000.”

“Some recent sellers who purchased their properties five years ago have had to accept prices below what they paid. A one-bedroom garden apartment on Whiteside St sold earlier this year for $615,000, $35,000 below the 2015 price of $650,000, while another one-bedder on Network Pl sold for $30,000 below the 2015 price. Prices in the inner west suburb of Forest Lodge are about 16 per cent lower than five years ago. A typical unit in the area currently costs about $837,500. In 2015 it was $994,500. Units recently sold for $45,000-$70,000 less than their 2015 prices included homes on Cullen Close and Ross St.”

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This Post Has 187 Comments

  1. I’ll be getting on a plane to scout foreclosures out west this afternoon. I’m not going to have a lot of time by design as I’m coming back Monday (hopefully). But if I have internet, I have plenty of crater to post even if I can’t search much.

    1. I found the site. It’s an open field nestled in between I-270 and the Beltway, the two major highways. Tool brothers must be planning to build super-luxe townhomes because that’s the only way they could justify paying a million bucks an acre.

          1. Priced right they will sell immediately.

            Almost always a true statement. Just a question of what “right” means.

          2. Right. You just have to be willing to drop your price to what the market will bear, and you can sell any livable home overnight.

            Unfortunately for many undewater HODLers, their debt obligations do not allow them to lower their asking price to current market value.

      2. It has been insinuated to key fed govt contractors that they should not layoff FTEs – even if there is less work.

        Friend in 2nd line mgmt at Booz Allen (Big IT consultancy/contractor to DoD and other agencies). They are having folks work on ‘future projects’ – as they cannot be on the wrong side.

        So good salaries (sans bonus) are all over the place in Virginia and Maryland.

    2. “Land is worth more then [sic] the radio business…”

      Then is commonly used to express a sense of time or what comes next or used to be. Than is used to form comparisons between two things.

      1. Hmmm OK space of time, a decade ago the land might have been worth $10 million and the radio station $50 million but today the radio station is probably worth 5-10 million……….. It is one of the oldest radio stations in the Washington media market, continuously on the air from 1925. For most of its history, the station operated as WMAL; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSBN

  3. ‘As housing demand fell in May, home prices softened further, sending the statewide median home price below last year’s price for the first time since February 2012 and breaking the state’s 98-month year-over-year price gain streak’

    This should never happen. The reason historically that shack loans had low interest rates was because prices were stable – for decades. How there economists, etc, can’t see 98 months is freaking insane is beyond me.

    ‘Homes selling at a discount were a common theme for L.A.’s priciest deals’

    Still no bubble LA Times?

  4. ‘And if jobs move elsewhere, the residential market will collapse too. landlords are ‘desperate’ to retain young tenants and increasingly willing to cut apartment rents by as much as 25%, Sternlicht said. That’s where his ‘negative cycle’ kicks in. As New York’s income base erodes and strains on social programs and infrastructure intensify, he predicted that quality of life will deteriorate, more wealthy residents will leave and tax rates will inevitably increase on those who remain’

    I’ve been saying some of these metros might turn into black-holes. And I’m not happy about it, as I’ve said. As an accountant, public and private, I am familiar with business. I grew up in a small business family, have run them, and done corporate accounting medium and small. The guberment fooked up with these shutdowns. You can’t just turn everything off. They don’t have any money, piddling checks aside.

    So we get to watch millions of businesses close for good. (Already happened actually). Way to go Farcei! Way to go guvnahs! Now observe as your cities hollow out.

    1. “observe as your cities hollow out”

      And the longer that mayors and governors tolerate the looting and thuggery, this will only accelerate.

      Driving to Ouray with some friends later today, I’ll be sure to contribute some sales tax revenue to a place that isn’t Denver.

        1. The city itself is hard core D. The suburbs, less so.

          Here are some demographics. City of Denver vs. State:

          Denver (2010)
          White 68.9%
          —Non-Hispanic 52.2%
          Black 10.2%
          Asian 3.4%
          Hispanic or Latino 31.8%

          Colorado
          81.3% White (70.0% Non-Hispanic White, 11.3% Hispanic white)
          7.2% Some Other Race
          4.0% Black or African American
          3.4% Multiracial American
          2.8% Asian American
          1.1% American Indian and Alaska Native
          0.1% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander

      3. Love Ouray. Beautiful country out that way, and the further you get from the Bolsheviks in Denver, the more it feels like the real Colorado.

        1. If you get far enough from the Front Range it’s almost like being in Wyoming. Except the green chile is better as you go south.

      4. “the looting and thuggery”

        Have been inconsequential. The scale of the protests are huge. The amount of bad behavior negligible.

        1. But all it takes is a carload of armed rednecks taunting protesters, and then everyone loses their mind.

          Inconsequential and negligible, only because your ox didn’t get gored. Had your place of business been looted you would have screaming “where are the police !?”

    2. ‘I think we stand on the precipice of a very sad era in America…Lots of very good people are going to lose their homes because the economy is not there to sustain them. It’s going to be far worse than 2008′

      3. Must be a Boomer. For those born later, it has been a sad era for most of their entire lives.

      4. What’s the over/under on number of months until the woke mob storms the Federal Reserve?

        3. Something tells me that the main FedRes office is very well guarded.

          But, yeah, there’s no way the Dem will gore that ox.

        4. What’s the over/under on number of months until the woke mob storms the Federal Reserve?

          Never. First, the woke mob has no idea the Fed is their real enemy. Second, almost unimaginable resources can be brought to bear to make sure things stay that way, or then to defend TPTB if the truth is “discovered”.

    4. It didn’t help much to enter the coronavirus crisis buried under mountains of unrepayable debt.

    6. Places like Portland OR returning to second tier city status is likely to increase livability for the remaining residents.

    1. March 26, 2020

      “As America heads into a deep recession, the $11 trillion residential-mortgage market is in crisis. Investors who buy home loans packaged into bonds are dumping even those with federal backing because of panic that millions might not make their payments. Yet one risky sector had started to show cracks long before the coronavirus pandemic sparked the worst financial meltdown in 12 years: the federal government’s largest affordable-housing program, whose lenient terms are geared toward marginal borrowers.”

      “As real estate prices soared in recent years, working-class adults everywhere have increasingly relied on mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration — and U.S. taxpayers. Since 2007, the FHA’s portfolio has tripled in value to more than $1.2 trillion, almost 11% of the market. While private lenders make these loans, they are packaged into Ginnie Mae bonds, common in mutual funds and pensions.”

      “Before Covid-19 started roiling China, a November FHA report found that 27% of borrowers last year spent more than half their incomes on debt, a level it describes as ‘unprecedented.’ The share of FHA loans souring in their first six months has doubled over the last three years to almost 1%.”

      “Not long ago, Alex Castillo drove his shiny black Infiniti SUV through an office park north of the San Antonio airport, along a busy seven-mile stretch of highway that loan officers call ‘Mortgage Row’ because of its abundance of small independent mortgage companies that dominate FHA lending. Castillo, who has the words ‘The Dream Starts Here’ stitched into his jacket, works for Pennsylvania-based American Residential Lending. Oddly, amid the pandemic, his business is booming. His customers locked in FHA mortgages after interest rates plunged this month — adding to federally backed mortgage debt.”

      “‘If the government tells me you’re good enough to get a loan, I have to trust and believe in the government,’ Castillo said. ‘Then we just hope and pray that the client doesn’t get foreclosed on.’”

      “In downtown San Antonio, scores of investors stood on a parched lawn beside the city’s historic granite-and-red-sandstone courthouse. It was the first Tuesday of February, the day of the foreclosure auction. Matt Badders, a San Antonio lawyer who represents lenders, auctioned off two houses. The failed mortgages remind him of the run-up to the financial crisis 12 years ago, when lending to customers with spotty credit nearly brought down the world’s financial system. ‘We’re almost back to 2007, when mortgage originators are waking people up on park benches, saying sign here,’ Badders said.”

      “At the auction, the crowd bid on 338 homes, a third with FHA mortgages, according to Roddy’s Foreclosure Listing Service. One house had dual master bedrooms, a game room and granite kitchen counters. It sold for $202,000 — $52,000 less than the homeowner borrowed only two years ago. The taxpayer-backed FHA insurance fund will take a loss.”

      “Dave Stevens, FHA commissioner under President Barack Obama and former chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said a recession will expose hidden risks in home lending. ‘This should be an alarm bell to policymakers,’ Stevens said. ‘Sometimes you get blinded by a good economy and suddenly look at it and see a bubble of defaults coming.’”

      “The federal government has decided it doesn’t want to pursue — and has asked a judge to dismiss — a lawsuit against Utah-based Academy Mortgage Corp. The judge refused. The suit claims the company’s staff would repeatedly feed information into an automated federal underwriting system, manipulating it until the computer gave the green light. ‘Decline is a curse word,’ Plaintiff Gwen Thrower, a former underwriter, quoted a manager as saying. ‘We don’t use it.’”

      http://housingbubble.blog/?p=3070

      1. “Investors who buy home loans packaged into bonds are dumping even those with federal backing because of panic that millions might not make their payments.”

        Oh the humanity!

      2. As America heads into a deep recession, the $11 trillion residential-mortgage market is in crisis.

        So what’s stopping the Fed from buying out all those mortgages and forgiving them? The printing press is already in overdrive.

        And before anyone yells at me, this is a strictly rhetorical question.

        1. So what’s stopping the Fed from buying out all those mortgages

          Nothing as far as I can tell.

          and forgiving them?

          Whoa, that’s crazy talk. No dollar shall escape. The goal here is to save the People Who Matter from taking a loss. Not to give some poor schmuck a free ride.

          2. No dollar shall escape.

            Does that even mean anything in the age of Infinite QE?

            Of course, we know that the end goal of all this if for People That Matter to own everything. So of course there won’t be a debt jubilee.

        2. I heard that QE was Unlimited now, so in principle they could cancel all debt overnight, including car loans, student loans, business loans, credit card debt, and mortgages.

          I wonder what is stopping them from an all out debt jubilee, given that QE is Unlimited? Wouldn’t this be an appropriate application of Modern Monetary Theory?

          1. I heard that QE was Unlimited now, so in principle they could cancel all debt overnight

            I think that it means dollars no longer limit them. It does not mean that they want to free the farm animals…the livestock are still needed to produce the actual wealth that the unlimited dollars will be used to control.

          3. “I think that it means dollars no longer limit them.”

            Yes, with added emphasis.

        3. You seem to have some serious misconceptions about the Fed’s purpose in life. If the Fed was to help FBs, how could the Fed’s Wall Street grifter accomplices hoover up millions of foreclosed houses at distress-sale prices using the free trillions in Powell Bux gambling money lavished on them by the Fed?

          1. The Fed and they’re cohort and in full on survival mode. The woke mob is ready, willing, and able to burn down anything in sight…including that fine Eccles building. The police don’t even care anymore, and are probably sympathetic.

      3. ‘If the government tells me you’re good enough to get a loan, I have to trust and believe in the government,’ Castillo said. ‘Then we just hope and pray that the client doesn’t get foreclosed on.’

        Does this haughty prick, Castillo, have even the slightest inkling of what a fiduciary responsibility is?

  6. ‘By the middle of May, there were signs that things were getting even worse. Notices in the streets offered to sell the rights to factories. The official jobless rate in China was 5.9% in May. But that number only includes residents of urban areas, not the migrant workers who have returned home. China-based brokerage Zhongtai Securities estimates that the real number is above 20%, with more than 70 million now jobless throughout the country due to the pandemic’

    Behind the globalist media screen, China is cratering. Eat yer crowz Dan.

    1. I bookmarked the Worldometers bat flu tracking site sometime back in March, the bookmark label still says 164,359 cases and 3,173 deaths in the U.S. That is now up to 2.5M+ and 125K+ respectively.

        1. Asian countries were trained by H1N1 and bird flu and SARS. The US is used to vaccines so we are trained to wait for that. But how many person-to-person sicknesses do Latin Americans have? I never hear of them having a flu season.

          1. Actually, winters can be chilly in the high altitude cities in Mexico and people do get the flu. I think they just don’t make a fuss about it.

            That said, in 1970 I remember that they closed all the schools for a couple of months.

  8. the real estate market…thousands of Hawaii residents expected to relocate to the mainland to look for work…our major industry going to hell in a hand basket.

    That “major industry” produced nothing but waste.

    1. Total number of CV deaths in Hawaii since April 19th…
      ZERO.
      Total number of CV deaths in Hawaii…
      17.
      Population of Hawaii…
      1.14 million.

      Economies are being imploded by design. CV is just the cover story.

      1. Every country in the world but Brazil destroyed their economy to influence the election in the USA? Or is it far more sinister?

        1. The first question begs the question in the classical sense of rhetoric. You ask a question which is based on a false premise/inference and which has only one answer if the implicit assumption is granted.

          The answer to the second question is, of course not. That would be a crazy conspiracy theory. 🙂

    2. We need a boots on the ground update from Bruddah Kai….anything less is just speculation.

  9. “A newly built mansion on North Bedford Drive traded for $8 million less than the asking price of $31.5 million. The Georgian-inspired home originally sought as much as $36.5 million when it first came to market last year.”

    Isn’t that $13 million off (last year’s) asking price?

  10. You want to know the beauty of the housing bubble blog? No matter what I’m doing, driving, building, screaming at counterparts, I can always tune in and get a big fat dose of crater no matter the time of day.

    There’s so much crater out there and it’s all captured on da housing bubble blog.

    1. Must suck to have to sell when there are no buyers in the market willing to pay last year’s price.

      1. A Poway seller, a financial planner going through a divorce with a $1.5M+ home, took out $200K in February, used it as a down payment in April on a house for his soon-to-be ex, and is refusing contingent offers. That $200K put it $200K above comps. The price was dropped $55K while trying to negotiate a deal that fell apart with a $30K price difference. One of the comps just closed slightly below listing price despite multiple offers. The house is unoccupied. How many months of mortgage payments before he realizes he can’t pass off his costly divorce to a buyer?

      2. “Investing is all about helping people. When people are desperate to sell, you help them by buying. When people are desperate to buy, you help them by selling.”
        John Templeton

        1. Great quote.

          It doesn’t seem like people are all that desperate to sell, just yet.

  14. By nature I’m a optimist, even when I see nothing but unsustainable debt with a crash to follow.

    It’s a opportunity for deflation in prices, even when a lot of loss will take place regarding the debt bomb.
    The Political corruption could be corrected finally.
    We could start producing our own stuff again.

    The one thing I wouldn’t want to see is the Agenda 21 bunch take over with their plan, which is pretty sinister. Or, a Commie take over would suck also.

    Actually a return to the Framers of the Constitution intent that we strayed so far from would be great .

    Any kind of Civil War would suck. I just don’t see that Civil War is necessary when the Majority agrees that all races have all the rights .

    1. the Majority agrees that all races have all the rights .

      Critical mass to kick of a revolution is well under 50% if they are motivated enough. Some people want much more than rights and they seem to want it pretty bad. How does the majority feel about that?

      1. Well, some of them want the destruction of the white race or values. Some are attacking Science as a construct of the White race.
        Some want some kind of a revenge plot and some say they want 350 thousand given to every Black person.. Some are saying that White people should be demeaned and even white children harassed for having White Privilege,( which I consider child abuse). Some think that.whites should be deprived of Gov. jobs they qualify for and they only be given to blacks. Some want to defund the Police and more welfare given to them. Some want statues and any trace of White history vanished from the face of the earth. Some want all of the above, including open borders.

        Considering what they are saying, I would not say in the final analysis the Majority would endorse these demands. But, some people think the racism claim is a false narrative anyway.
        What it does look like is a false narrative of racism used by Commies and Globalist money Looters for their own sinister reasons.

      2. “Some people want much more than rights”

        The right not to be summarily executed isn’t nearly enough.

    1. What’s a misplaced three decimal digits between friends?

      The gaffe does bring to mind how very far off we are from herd immunity at this point.

  17. ‘At some point, the foreclosure moratorium will end and lawyers for the banks will start filing foreclosures and scheduling sales,’ said Bruce Jacobs, a Miami attorney. ‘Courts will be inundated.’”

    Talk dirty to us, Bruce.

  18. ‘I think we stand on the precipice of a very sad era in America,’ he said. ‘Lots of very good people are going to lose their homes because the economy is not there to sustain them. It’s going to be far worse than 2008.’”

    No f**ks given. These “good people” voted for the globalist quislings who brought us to our current sorry state. Now it’s time to pay the piper.

  19. ‘I think a quarter, a third of hotels in New York City could go bankrupt,’ Sternlicht said. ‘It’s going to be ugly.’”

    Au contraire, Barry. Watching the implosion of the Fed’s Everything Bubble is going to be a thing of terrible beauty.

  20. As New York’s income base erodes and strains on social programs and infrastructure intensify, he predicted that quality of life will deteriorate, more wealthy residents will leave and tax rates will inevitably increase on those who remain.

    Every single urban center run by corrupt, incompetent Democrat administrations is going to experience an identical death spiral as the parasites kill off the productive host.

  21. ‘And what we noticed with everybody psychology-wise is that they were panicking adjusting to the times.’”

    I’m not panicking, Wong. I’m cool as a cucumber, watching the inevitable denouement of 11 years of Keynesian monetary lunacy.

  22. There is shortage of crater on Wall Street today. Even the specially annointed NASDAQ is taking a black swan dive.

    Key Words
    ‘Black Swan’ author says if investors don’t use a ‘tail hedge,’ he recommends ‘not being in the market’—‘We’re facing a huge amount of uncertainty
    Published: June 26, 2020 at 1:47 p.m. ET
    By Mark DeCambre
    Getty Images
    Referenced Symbols
    DJIA
    -2.74%
    SPX
    -2.23%
    COMP
    -2.20%

    ‘If you don’t have a tail hedge, I suggest not being in the market we’re facing a huge amount of uncertainty.’

    That’s “Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb offering his view on the risks swirling in the market and a growing lack of clarity about the future in the era of a deadly pandemic that has created a public-health and economic crisis.

    Speaking during an interview on CNBC on Friday, the popular author, shared the notion that investors should be hedged against so-called “tail risk,” which refers to extreme events that have a low probability of happening in a distribution of outcomes. Taleb has spent his career chronicling so-called “tail risk” events, which have a tiny probability of occurrence, but nonetheless take place more often than one would guess, and therefore often are underestimated by the broader investment community.

    Taleb said the current market landscape, perhaps, has amplified uncertainties, even if the stock market has been mostly rising, despite signs of a spreading COVID-19 pandemic that is re-intensifying in places and threatening to de-rail projections for a “V-shaped,” or quick, economic recovery.

    “We are printing money like there’s no tomorrow,” Taleb said, referencing the Federal Reserve’s efforts to ease the financial pain of the epidemic by delivering trillions of stimulus to the market. The Fed also cut interest rates to a superlow range of 0% and 0.25% back in March, and may not have a lot of room to further ease the economic pain of the viral outbreak and other problems that could arise amid this crisis.

    “And COVID seems to be there even if the pandemic…dies down, you will still have people cautious enough that it will impact a lot of industries,” he said.
    …

  23. One man in his 50s, who gave only his surname, Xiong, said he tried going back to work at the end of March but found his job no longer existed. He tried looking for work elsewhere but the most he could get was a handful of days so he decided to go home. ‘I can’t pay the rent and have nothing to live on,’ he said.”

    Mao’s Little Red book offers a prescription for corrupt, repressive governance by tyrannical overlords, Xiong: revolution.

  24. It’s like parachuting in the dark. We don’t know where the ground is and we don’t know how fast we are falling.’”

    You can try flapping your arms.

    3. Lol, no. The string pullers believe in “guns for me, not for thee” while the useful idiot members cant pass a background check and cant read – literacy rate of less than half – so words on a piece of paper proclaiming rights dont mean much. https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/11/african-american-students-lagging-far-behind

      And Melbourne Australia’s market is enjoying much vibrancy, contributing to the RE crash: https://www.rt.com/news/492108-video-girl-attacked-melbourne-australia/

    4. til wonderin where are the ohbahmas, Oprah and Beyonce on the 100 shot in Chicago over the fathers day weekend….oops

      1. I don’t know about the others, but the obama’s are probably slightly more upset about it that you and me, while relieved they don’t have to go make a speech about it. It’s really not their deal any more. They aren’t in charge of anything.

        Is oprah still on?

        1. The ohbhamas were all over the news about st. floyd the deadbeat “father” of the year blaming white folk for everything…but total silence on Chicago

    5. I think that’s good news in spite of the current racial tensions. The fewer people that want to throw away the bill of rights, the better.

    6. Its fun to watch people get all squeamish about the 2nd Amendment when it people of color with the guns.

      2. Its fun to watch people get all squeamish about the 2nd Amendment when it people of color with the guns.

        Hopefully so fun that you will be its biggest advocate. The more the merrier, welcome aboard.

  27. In progressive cities like Minneapolis and New York, the gimme dats are setting up huge, illegal fireworks every night, keeping the honest portion of the population from getting any sleep and stressing out their pets. Now some New Yorkers have had enough, and have decided if they can’t sleep, neither should NYC’s worthless libtard mayor.

    https://www.rt.com/usa/492662-de-blasio-protest-fireworks-nyc/

    1. You dont see the connection – that it just so happened that the thugs in these libtard cities across the country just so happened to simultaneously get the impulse to light off firecrackers at night? This is part of the plan – cover for the eventual targeted assassinations coming. Hard to triangulate gunshot positions with the sound of the fireworks in the background.

      And guaranteed the libtard state scumbag govs will mandate masks at all times – making it hard to identify attackers. This is all 4th generation guerilla warfare folks. Time to wake up.

      1. simultaneously get the impulse to light off firecrackers

        The fireworks for sale tents just went up in parking lots all across the country?

        1. fireworks for sale tents

          I haven’t seen those for about 35 years. I loved the flower spinners as a kid.

    1. Things will pick up for them… the looted inventory will need to be restocked in any retailers that survive.

      1. Does insurance cover looting losses? Sure, Foot Locker will survive, but what incentive do they have to reopen a looted store?

      1. “when formerly paying customers become looters.”

        Shhhhh 🙂

        “Revenues tumbled 38 percent to $6.3 billion following huge declines in sales in most of the world.”

        Huge decline in sales yet there are more new Nikes on the street than

  32. Okay, Millenial.

    Stocks close out the week on a sour note, down about 2.5% across the board

    Home Investing U.S. & Canada Key Words
    Key Words
    ‘All I hear is old-timers say that the retail bros are going to get crushed,’ the ‘supreme leader’ of stock-market day traders says—but ‘I’m beating them like a drum’
    Published: June 26, 2020 at 3:46 p.m. ET
    By Mark DeCambre
    Associated Press
    Referenced Symbols
    DJIA
    -2.84%
    SPX
    -2.42%
    COMP
    -2.59%
    FB
    -8.25%
    AMZN
    -2.24%
    AAPL
    -3.07%

    All I hear is old-timers say that the retail bros are going to get crushed. That they’ve lived through this before. That the pride comes before the fall…Yet here I am. Beating them like a drum for the past three months at their own game.

    That’s Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy appearing to fully embrace his unofficial role as leader of an army of day traders that have taken Wall Street by storm amid a public-health crisis that has rocked Wall Street and the economy.

    In an op-ed on Fox Business on Friday, Portnoy claims that the financial community that initially embraced him as a newbie bringing attention to the world of investing to a younger crowd suddenly became resentful of the success that he seemed to be enjoying using his unique brand of equity trading.
    …

    1. Never heard of this dude or robinhood until a few months ago. Methinks its a masterfully orchestrated con to unload stawk inventory to suckers, er, young investors with dollar signs in their eyes.

      There is zero/zip/no reason to buy stocks given the current state of the economy. We’re in an only partially acknowledged civil war. The best investment right now is high velocity projectile delivery devices and the projectiles themselves.

      1. He tried shorting the market (Boeing, etc) and got his ash handed to him. Finally woke up, started to BTFD, and couldn’t lose. His disdain for ‘money managers’ and publicly blasting some prominent wall street market makers tells me it’s not a sham.

        Hilarious guy actually.

      1. I would say he is giving those who care to listen a wake up call. Here is an article on that 911 call at 6:40 – 9:20 in the link above.

        “The utter shock that no first responder is going to come and help is unbelievable.”

        Family Terrorized by Antifa; Local Police Unresponsive, City Gov’t Complicit

        Jenny Kefauver Jenny Kefauver
        4 days ago

        Most Americans look forward to weekends as a time to unwind, spend time with family and friends, and perhaps tackle household projects and errands. That was the case for Fredericksburg, VA resident Tara Durant one recent afternoon while out with her young daughter. Upon returning from several errands, however, she and her daughter found themselves in a threatening situation that no one should have to face alone – without any local emergency responders to assist immediately.

        “We were driving on Hanover Street, when we came across where it intersected at Caroline Street (the main business district in the City of Fredericksburg), when we suddenly found our vehicle surrounded by protesters,” said Durant. In light of the recent nationwide protests highlighting the death of George Floyd, the city of Fredericksburg had also experienced nearly daily protests on its streets in recent weeks.

        “We were unexpectedly in the middle of the intersection on a one-way road. All of a sudden, we were surrounded by at least fifteen to twenty people, all screaming at us. It was frightening – they clearly had the upper hand, as they saw us getting more and more upset as I am calling for help on my cell phone.

        Then one of them started jumping up and down on my car and I kept screaming at him to stop. My daughter was terrified. People outside the car were yelling, ‘[expletive] you, [expletive] your child.’

        Horrified and frightened by the dangerous situation unfolding around them, Durant called 911, but only to be told that the officers were told to stand down and that the protests were in fact sanctioned by the city.

        “This was a horrible and unfair position to find ourselves in,“ said Durant. “You can either go slow and hope they don’t get inside your car, or go fast and deal with the consequences. The utter shock that no first responder is going to come and help is unbelievable.

        There is no where to go anymore that you might get caught in a protest. This can happen anywhere, anytime, to anyone. My daughter is a victim and no one should have to feel unsafe driving home from any routine activity.

        https://politichicks.com/2020/06/family-terrorized-by-antifa-local-police-unresponsive-city-govt-complicit/

    1. Europe in summary is saying that they are going to ban Americans from their Countries because they didn’t control C-19 enough.

      Isn’t this interesting in that Italy gave us a big dose of the Europe C-19 strain.

      Biden said in essence that he would make a Federal mandate that everyone had to wear a mask. Than he goes on to attack Trump.

      Nobody seemed to care about the protests increasing the cases . You just knew that the younger cases were going to increase. Hopefully the death rate won’t increase.

      1. Europe in summary is saying that they are going to ban Americans from their Countries

        I’m sure Viking river cruises and other parts of the European tourism industrial complex are thrilled.

  35. It appears rioting for a month has not affected the Wuhan Flu case load. But people eating dinner has. That is the only conclusion I can come up with from the actions of TX and FL today. They are closing restaurants but allowing the riots to continue after all. Carry on Antifa you are good to go. Mrs and Mrs Smith, please go lock yourselves up in your homes again. For your safety of course. Trust us we are from the gift and know best.

  36. Every time a CHAZ member destroys a business a home is sold above asking in flyover country. Seattle and Portland continue to commit suicide on a daily basis. Seattle and PDX are leftie but not everyone Who lives there is bat chit crazy. The Subaru driving lululemon wearing wine mom did not sign up for anarchy. This insanity is and will continue driving thousands of them away to smaller cities in the west and Mountain West.

    1. Will they be able to unload their overpriced shacks if there is anarchy and everyone wants to get out?

    2. “The Subaru driving lululemon wearing wine mom did not sign up for anarchy.”

      This type has done more damage than all the protesters combined.

  38. ‘The Houston Association of Realtors no longer uses the word “master” to describe bedrooms and bathrooms on its Multiple Listing Service. Earlier this month, HAR replaced the phrases “master bedroom” and “master bathroom” with “primary bedroom” and “primary bathroom” on its property listing database.’

    “You may still use the term ‘Master Bedroom’ or ‘Master Bath’ as you feel appropriate in your marketing materials and in the Public Remarks, Agent Remarks, and photo descriptions,” according to the statement HAR sent its members.’

    https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/06/25/har-no-longer-using-master-to-describe-bedrooms-and-bathrooms-on-its-property-listing-database/

  39. “The 1619 Project” Enters American ClassroomsAdding new sizzle to education about slavery—but at a significant cost.

    By Naomi Schaefer Riley

    When New York Times correspondent Nikole Hannah-Jones won the Pulitzer Prize for commentary for an article she published about blacks and the ideal of America, her own newspaper reported, “The essay was published on Aug. 14, and the magazine issue gained public attention immediately, with copies selling out and educators around the country teaching The 1619 Project.”

    That the Pulitzer was for “commentary” rather than history, national reporting, or some other more empirically anchored category generated some amusement in competing newsrooms. Given all the theatrics that have attended the article’s publication, it’s possible that the most appropriate award the Pulitzer Board could have chosen to honor The 1619 Project or Hannah-Jones with would have been the prize for drama.

    “Educators around the country” are indeed “teaching The 1619 Project.” What, precisely, students and other interested observers are learning is another question. The 1619 Project is certainly educational, or at least instructive—but not only in the ways it was intended.

    What The 1619 Project Is

    The 1619 Project was, and is, sprawling and ambitious. It takes its name from the year of arrival in Virginia of a ship carrying African slaves. An introduction by the editor of the New York Times Magazine, Jake Silverstein, explained, “The goal of The 1619 Project is to reframe American history by considering what it would mean to regard 1619 as our nation’s birth year. Doing so requires us to place the consequences of slavery and the contributions of black Americans at the very center of the story we tell ourselves about who we are as a country.”

    https://www.educationnext.org/1619-project-enters-american-classrooms-adding-new-sizzle-slavery-significant-cost/

    2. “Doing so requires us to place the consequences of slavery and the contributions of black Americans at the very center of the story we tell ourselves about who we are as a country.”

      Placing one of the most important issues in American history front and center — will the horrors never end?

      2. the most important issues in American history

        Are the good people who gave fortune and blood to end 5,000 years of slavery remembered in your narrative?

  40. In Racist Screed, NYT’s 1619 Project Founder Calls ‘White Race’ ‘Barbaric Devils,’ ‘Bloodsuckers,’ Columbus ‘No Different Than Hitler’

    JUNE 25, 2020
    By Jordan Davidson

    In an indication of what was to come, the founder of the New York Times’ 1619 Project penned a lengthy racist screed attacking all white people in 1995.

    Nikole Hannah-Jones, the lead essayist on New York Times Magazine’s 1619 Project, wrote a letter to the editor in Notre Dame’s The Observer stating that “the white race is the biggest murderer, rapist, pillager, and thief of the modern world.”

    Hannah-Jones claimed that the actions of European settlers and explorers such as Christopher Columbus were “acts of devils” and likens them to Hitler.

    “[The whites] lasting monument was the destruction and enslavement of two races of people,” Hannah-Jones wrote.

    She then moves to the present and argues that white people today still take advantage of other people.

    “The descendants of these savage people pump drugs and guns into the Black community, pack Black people into the squalor of segregated urban ghettos and continue to be bloodsuckers in our community,” she writes.

    In May, Hannah-Jones was awarded a Pulitzer Prize for her work on the 1619 Project, despite the work having to be substantially corrected after a number of respected academics and historians disputed its grasp on history. Hannah-Jones even admitted herself the correction was “important,” admitting she “los[t] important context and nuance” in the Pulitzer-winning essay.

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/25/in-racist-screed-nyts-1619-project-founder-calls-white-race-barbaric-devils-bloodsuckers-no-different-than-hitler/

    1. All races did war like conquering and bloodshed in their history. So to talk as if the White race was the only race that did this is absurd. History has been filled with nothing but bloodshed and war.
      These people who say Whites are bad refuse to look at the history of their own races. History was bad World wide, nothing but bloodshed. All these people do is take history out of context so they can vilify the White race .
      The USA could of taken over the World when they were the only ones that had the Big Bomb in World War 2. The USA just stopped the War. Do you think Germany or Japan would of done the same thing had they gotten the Big Bomb first ?
      And you hear Mexicans claim that some USA territory is really theirs. But the USA paid 19 million to Mexico for that land at the time. It’s just all a one sided story to vifily the White Race.

      1. And you hear Mexicans claim that some USA territory is really theirs.

        They conveniently forget that same territory was conquered by their ancestors, the Spaniards. Or that the Aztecs arrived from the north and enslaved people in southern Mexico.

      2. “And you hear Mexicans claim that some USA territory is really theirs.”

        (I’m Puerto Rican but close enough) we’re taking back large parts of the country. That’s the way history works. You steal it from us — we steal it back — and so it goes.

        1. I’m Puerto Rican but close enough

          Say that in Mexico, and you’ll be laughed out the door, Gringo.

    1. My wife is in the coffee industry in China and claims she knew Luckin was BS years ago when she went into their shops and knew there was no way they were profitable then or likely would ever be.

  42. Some food for thought …

    A Recession Like No Other | Mauldin Economics
    https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/a-recession-like-no-other

    (a snip)

    I thought we were headed for a credit crisis, centered on corporate debt rather than mortgages, as happened in 2008. The Fed’s decades-long easy money policies have many businesses leveraged to the hilt. That remains the case and could still become a bigger problem but for now, we are in something unique: a supply-and-demand-driven recession. Specifically, service supply dried up almost overnight due to virus fears and lockdown orders. Then consumer demand collapsed as people lost those service jobs and, as we will see, those with more money started to save dramatically more, further reducing demand.

    (end of snip. I suggest everyone read the article)

    1. “The Fed’s decades-long easy money policies have many businesses leveraged to the hilt.”

      Not the greatest leadup to a pandemic, when deeply indebted households and businesses with no savings find themselves unable to make debt payments when their income streams dry up.

      1. when deeply indebted households and businesses with no savings

        I recall a well paid female coworker, with a low 6 figure salary. tell me that she didn’t believe in saving money.

        She drove a leased Benz

  43. ‘Crow Wing County will hold a public land sale auction outside of the Land Services Building in Brainerd in July. On July 24th at 10:00 a.m., over 400 properties of land will be offered for sale at the public auction. The vast majority of these parcels of land have had the starting bid price reduced by 25 percent. Properties are located throughout Crow Wing County, from the Mille Lacs Lake area in Garrison all of the way to Ideal Township, including lots in Breezy Point, Brainerd, and Crosby.’

    ‘The land available in the auction include 33 waterfront properties and 41 properties that are greater than 20 acres in size. The website provides detailed information about location, size, and starting bid price for more than 400 properties to be offered at the auction.’

    ‘The tax-forfeited properties can be used for building, seasonal use, or recreation. Properties offered that didn’t sell from prior years are available for direct purchase.’

    https://lptv.org/crow-wing-county-land-sale-auction-to-be-held-in-july/

    1. ‘Crow Wing County will hold a public land sale auction outside of the Land Services Building in Brainerd in July. On July 24th at 10:00 a.m., over 400 properties of land will be offered for sale at the public auction.”

      That’s a lot of crow!

  44. “Rents could drop 25% in New York — office rents. I think expenses could go up 25%. You could see office values drop 40% because of that,” Sternlicht said. “It’s probably going to be the toughest office market in the country.”

    “If jobs move elsewhere, the residential market will collapse too. landlords are “desperate” to retain young tenants and increasingly willing to cut apartment rents by as much as 25%, Sternlicht said.”

    “I think a quarter, a third of hotels in New York City could go bankrupt,” Sternlicht said. “

    “Tenants that consistently draw shoppers in person, such as Apple Inc.’s stores, are turning the tables on their landlords by suggesting they get paid to locate or stay in a given mall.”

    He’s talking about these things as if they are bad. Bad for whom? Add in bankruptcy for New York City and New York State, wiping out some of the public sector pillage, and an 80 percent plunge in the stock market, and we finally may get on the road to turning this country around while Generation Greed members like him are still around to share the pain.

  45. This is what concerns me:

    ‘Except for a period during the Vietnam War in the 1970s and when she first settled in California a decade later, manicurist Liz Le had never experienced a long stretch of unemployment. For 25 years she has worked at the same nail salon on Bedford Drive in Beverly Hills. It’s where her hard life — raising three daughters as a single mother with a low-wage job after losing her husband in Vietnam — intersected with the smooth hands of her more fortunate clients.’

    ‘Today, however, as COVID-19 rampages through California, Le has not heard from many of her regular clients in nearly four months. And even though the salon is now open again, she fears it may be a long time before customers fully return.’

    “Now people are scared, they don’t want to come,” said Le, 69. And not just clients, Le herself: “Oh, my God! Like a war. But it’s more scary.”

    https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-26/wealthy-retrench-low-wage-workers-take-hit

    You don’t just shut down an economy and act like there won’t be consequences. We had no debate, no consideration of our rights, just dictatorship. Well eat it now boys. I’m scouting foreclosures and you idiots served up a platter full.

    BTW, Stockton is nice at dawn.

    1. We have reached the point where the share of people who believe they have a stake in things is small and getting smaller. We were heading for general strikes, etc. anyway.

      The long term economic disaster is caused by the impact of inequality on final demand. Perhaps the rich will stop using toilet paper and start hiring people to wipe their asses. For everyone else, it’s back to spending income let of necessary savings. If that causes asset prices to collapse, sobeit.

      In this context, how did we end up with two candidates for President who are member of Generation Greed, don’t comprehend how much worse off later born generations are, and aren’t as sharp as they used to be?

      1. Larry, I agree with you that some powers took from the younger generations, and any generation they could take from.

        Some people think it’s a small group of powerful rich elites that got to the Politicians . Some people think the Commies have been trying to destroy America inch by inch. Some people think it’s the Agenda 21 group that set their plan in motion in the mid 90’s. Some people thinks it’s a powerful group that wants a One World Order. And some think it’s the Greedy Globalist / Corporations/Wall Street who wanted every unfair advantage they could get to make more and pay less wages.

        So, I don’t think you can say that everyday working people voted for any of this stuff, why would they, they would be voting for their own demise.

        The Politicians got bought out by the Fat Cats, while they lie to the voters.

        So I don’t think you can say it was one generation trying to screw another generation. It’s more like you should be mad at the Political class that sold out regular USA Citizens to these powerful lobbying groups. They are really traitors as far as I’m concerned. But, people were to busy making a living to watch them all the time so they trusted them to do right by America.
        So, that Washington DC is just so corrupt today, they are the Vibers of Society. I would like to get rid of all of them and start from scratch, and especially the long term Politicians, who ate the most corrupt.
        So, you have to go after who are the real culprits so effective change can be made. These power groups are very effective at taking the heat off themselves by diversion to blame something else.

    2. people are scared

      And the mental health ramifications of this, particularly on kids, is devastating. A friend admitted last night via text that she’s still scared. The only place she goes with her 9yo and 11yo daughters is the beach. My friend has Lupus and has been on hydroxycloroquine for years. Her 9yo daughter has health problems resulting from a rare genetic disorder but is luckily able to access services online unlike my son. Her 11yo daughter is mad all the time. Imagine what an eternity the last few months must feel like for a 10yo. If/when they learn this was used for politically purposes, how is that going to make them feel? We may have a very disgruntled generation on our hands.

      1. I remember how the Cold War and the Cuban crisis in the early 60’s was the threat at the time. They were traumatizing the young all the time that we were going to be nuked all the time.

        People were trying to decide if they wanted to build a bomb shelter or a pool.

        When the ships from Russia that were headed for Cuba were displayed on the News that was a moment in time where the true meaning of terror existed for a young person. Here it comes, were going to get nuked.
        I found out later that some Military high command wanted to do it. Kennedy and his Brother worked out a deal with the Russians and it never happened. You actually saw the Russians turning around their ships on the News.
        So I’m sure that this trauma had a influence on that generation of children that operates on a sub-concious level. Just as the 911 disaster for those children, or World War 2 for those kids.
        Attack by a killer virus must be scary for kids. They will survive it and when they get back to normal, who knows what the subconcious will take away from it.

    3. “BTW, Stockton is nice at dawn.”

      Parts of Stockton are deceptively pretty — especially the neighborhoods around Victory Park and the University of the Pacific (my old neighborhood). However, I can’t imagine Stockton ever being a good investment.

  46. VIDEO: BLM Vandal Assaults Elderly Man, Runs To Police And Demands Protection When Chased

    “Oh, now you want the cops!” taunts directed at vandal who sought refuge behind police

    By National File Saturday, June 27, 2020

    In one video, a vandal can be seen running through a group of senior citizen counter-protesters who showed up to defend the monument, shoving and pulling one man to the ground.

    The assailant then turns tail and runs away, chased by the group of senior citizens, including one man using a cane. One counter protester closes the distance and shoves the BLM activist, who momentarily assumes a fighting stance before fleeing into a group of fellow activists and hiding behind a police officer.

    https://www.newswars.com/video-blm-vandal-assaults-elderly-man-runs-to-police-and-demands-protection-when-chased/

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