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Some Experts Are Starting To Drop The F-Bomb

A report from Seven Days in Vermont. “Signs of the times were impossible to miss along the Church Street Marketplace in Burlington. ‘For lease’ signs hung in windows once occupied by retailers. Uncommon Grounds coffeehouse, Half Lounge speakeasy, David’s Tea, Sweet Thing,and Scuffer Tap & Table were shuttered. The Five Guys burger restaurant, normally serving lunch midday, was inexplicably closed. Church Street, the crown jewel of Vermont’s retail sector, looked a little rough around the edges. Tony Blake, cofounder of V/T Commercial in Burlington, a real estate and business brokerage firm, said he has lowered rents on two Church Street properties by 30 percent since March as he tries to retain tenants hit hard by the pandemic.”

“‘Retail is obvious. You can walk up and down Church Street and see some carnage already,’ Blake said. As he’s been telling landlords who call him with new vacancies, ‘It really doesn’t matter what you’re asking for in terms of rent. What we need to do is get activity.'”

The DCist on Washington DC. “For the last 20 years or more, downtown Washington has been riding a wave of prosperity. But the COVID-19 pandemic has put a stop to that. The new analysis notes that federal unemployment benefits and the Paycheck Protection Program were ‘very helpful’ to workers and businesses in downtown D.C. But even these factors won’t be enough to fill the smoking crater in downtown D.C.’s economy.”

From Variety. “Mariah Carey decamped her plush mansion-sized penthouse in lower Manhattan sometime in March to sequester at a grand Westchester County country estate. The property last sold in 2012 for $4.8 million. The renovated estate first came for sale over the summer of 2015 at nearly $10 million. With no takers, it was taken off the market a year later before it was re-listed with the exact same price. There were still no buyers, and the next July the estate got a staggering 30% price reduction, to just under $6.9 million. Alas, it also languished at the hugely discounted price until the summer of 2019, when it was taken off the market.”

From Business Insider on New York. “The former NYC home of a jetsetting Iranian princess has sold for $11.5 million after a $40 million price cut and 6 years on and off the market. A controversial New York City townhouse has sold for a fraction of its original $50 million asking price after six years on and off the market.”

From Variety on New Jersey. “The Real Housewives of New Jersey star Teresa Giudice has put her giant Towaco, N.J., mansion on the market at just under $2.5 million. This in not the first time Giudice has attempted to sell the leafy 3.75-acre suburban spread. In 2010, the year after they filed for chapter 7 bankruptcy with almost $11 million in debt, the estate popped up for sale at almost $4 million. The palatial pad came back up for sale, again at almost $4 million, just before they were each sentenced to federal prison on bank, mail, wire and bankruptcy convictions in 2014, and the price dropped to slightly less than $3 million before it was pulled from the market in 2015.”

From The Oregonian. “‘A trend we’ve seen is people moving out of cities,’ says Scott Halligan, vice president of residential operations in Oregon and Southwest Washington for John L. Scott Real Estate. Residential properties listed under $500,000 are selling quickly and often receiving multiple offers, he says. 2909 S.W. Upper Dr. in Portland is listed at $499,000. The property was first listed for $200,900 more on Sept. 20, 2019, and has been pending twice but is back on the market, according to public records.”

“30621 S. Oswalt Road in Colton is listed at $488,750. The bungalow, built in 1930 on 14.90 acres, has two bedrooms, one bathroom and 1,152 square feet of living space. ‘Appears that the property is mostly level, fenced and cross fenced with some outbuildings. Cash only. Property is occupied and occupants are not to be disturbed or contacted under any circumstances. Interior inspections not available; property is being sold as occupied and as-is. Property sold through auction,’ says listing agent Jim Doak of John L. Scott RE Portland South.”

From Bizwest in Colorado. “Cover your ears if you don’t want to hear this, but some experts in the real estate and financial sectors are starting to drop the F-bomb: foreclosures. It’s not a word that has been expressed much in recent years, what with a booming economy. But, for a number of reasons, many experts are expecting an uptick in the coming months, perhaps a big uptick. The moratorium is intended to alleviate pressure on homeowners during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, federal stimulus programs, such as the recently ended $600 a week additional unemployment benefit, enabled many homeowners to remain current on their loans.”

“But that extra unemployment benefit has ended. All of this could simply be delaying the inevitable. A recent examination of Notice of Election and Demand filings — the first step in foreclosure — for Boulder, Broomfield, Larimer and Weld counties, found some interesting data. Through August 2019, the four counties had seen 219 such filings. Through Aug. 25 — an abbreviated time frame due to BizWest’s press date — the number totaled just 100. That means that even foreclosures that we would see in a normal economy are being prevented — or, rather, postponed. It’s likely that we’re just delaying the inevitable on homes that would have gone into foreclosure even when times were good. So 2021 could be brutal in terms of residential foreclosures.”

“Some landlords, in turn, have negotiated workout agreements or restructuring of loans with lenders. But no one expects those arrangements to last forever. Landlords do not have as much rental income coming in, and some will have difficulty making mortgage payments. Lenders’ patience will last only for so long. Bankers already are working to build up their loan-loss reserves in anticipation of problems down the road. Commercial foreclosures remain few in number, but we are beginning to see them crop up, from a hotel in Johnstown to a business park in Broomfield to an under-construction apartment complex in Old Town Fort Collins. So the next time you hear someone drop the ‘F-bomb,’ cover your ears, and go ‘la-la-la-la’ until they stop.”

The Colorado Sun. “A new owner is taking the reins at Granby Ranch, but the mayhem continues for the beleaguered ski and golf community. Following a complicated foreclosure sale, the new owner of Granby Ranch — Granby Prentice Granby Holdings — sent a letter early Wednesday to the roughly 800 owners of property at the 5,000-acre Grand County resort explaining that the company was terminating a 2005 deal that had the owners paying $10,000 each to eventually take control of the ski area and golf course.”

“Those five deeds involve promissory notes between lenders and former Granby Ranch owner Marise Cipriani. Cipriani borrowed more than $62 million since 2005 to fund her failed 25-year dream of more than 4,000 homes in a year-round destination resort. Cipriani for two years tried to sell the resort, but walked away earlier this year after Granby Prentice concluded she owed more than it was worth, telling a Grand County District Court in January that ‘the property is inadequate security for repayment of the loan.'”

The Press Democrat in California. “Megan Rhodes, 65, who works for a credit union in Capitola near Santa Cruz, recently paid about $840,000 for a new 2,300-square-foot home in Windsor. She relocated north after her company allowed her to continue working indefinitely from home. Erika Rendino and her husband, David, who together work as a real estate team, said they have seen a number of area buyers purchasing second homes to use as their primary residences during the pandemic.”

“‘We have Google buyers, and they’ve been told that they’ll work from home until July of next year,’ David Rendino said. ‘If they have to go back, they’ll do some kind of (vacation rental service).’ With interest rates for mortgages remaining near historic lows, and a glut of backlogged properties still waiting to hit the housing market, the Rendinos expect the county’s homebuying trend to extend well into the fall.”

From Elite Agent on California. “Justin Bieber and wife have scored themselves a massive six-bedroom mansion in Beverly Park for a cool $25.8 million. The property was built in 1988, and first went on the market in April, 2018, with an asking price of $42m. To grasp just what a bargain Biebs scored himself, an empty lot in his neighbourhood listed in 2015 for $30m.”

From Heavy on California. “The agents on Million Dollar Listing are known for thinking outside the box in order to sell distinctive properties. On tonight’s season finale, Josh Altman and Tracy Tutor team up to sell a historic home that, despite its iconic status, has struggled to attract buyers. The home featured on the season finale of MDLLA once belonged to Hollywood icon John Barrymore. It has been put on the market several times since 2015. The Barrymore Estate was once listed for as high as $42.5 million.”

“But the price has come down significantly since then. In 2016, the price was lowered to $29.95 million. According to records on Compass, the price first dropped below $20 million in October 2017. After nearly another year without any buyers, the price changed again to $19.5 million. The seller agreed to yet another price reduction in February 2019, to $17.9 million. Altman and Tutor took over the listing in November 2019 with a $16.995 million price tag. The listing was canceled just before Christmas before it was put back on the market in February 2020. Altman again described the house on social media as a brand new listing.”

“Since MDLLA wrapped filming, the stars put Seabright Place back on the market on August 14 but the price has once again been lowered. The home is currently available for $15.995 million.”

The Davis Enterprise in California. “Potential housing effects of the viral crisis became noticeable almost immediately after shelter-at-home orders first came from county governments in the San Francisco Bay Area, quickly followed by similar statewide decrees by Gov. Gavin Newsom.”

“”White collar workers for companies large and small were suddenly ordered to work from home, as companies from Internet giants like Twitter and Facebook to law firms, insurance companies, stock brokerages and many more provided technology for workers to work wherever they like. Vacancy signs proliferated in the densest of business districts from San Francisco to Santa Monica to Fresno, San Diego, Orange County and beyond. Said a stock brokerage vice president in Pasadena, ‘We spent $2 million over the last two years refurbishing our offices to accommodate more than 100 workers. Now we get five people a day working there. We don’t need all that space. Our people are as productive as ever; they’re just not in the office very often.'”

“Realtors report record levels of vacancies, but a building boom propelled by previous state demands for more and more mixed-use office and commercial buildings has continued. As empty space appeared within existing buildings, spurred strictly by non-political events, state lawmakers kept pushing the most ambitious housing construction plan the Legislature ever saw.”

“If the lawmakers behind these measures paid any heed to what’s going on in their own districts, they might not have proposed these things, despite the strong support they quite predictably got from developers and building trade unions. Twitter’s building in Wiener’s district now stands mostly empty. Office towers in Atkins’ San Diego district are nowhere near filled and ‘for-lease’ signs abound in downtown Santa Monica, barely a mile from Bloom’s home.”

“These empty spaces and many more like them will likely produce more than 1 billion vacant square feet that can be turned into apartments and condominiums in all price ranges with far less work, in far less time and with far fewer lawsuits to fight them than pushing for new construction. Yes, it will take some rezoning to accomplish this. But those changes are inevitable: cities and counties would otherwise stand to lose large amounts of property tax money as massive vacancies reduce the value of commercial buildings.”

“If legislators are really interested in solving the housing problem, and not merely in self-aggrandizement or feathering the nests of their campaign donors, they will leave well enough alone, allowing the market forces to play out over the next two to three years.”

This Post Has 165 Comments
  1. ‘even these factors won’t be enough to fill the smoking crater in downtown D.C.’s economy’

    Eat yer crowz taxpayer.

  2. ‘Cipriani for two years tried to sell the resort, but walked away earlier this year after Granby Prentice concluded she owed more than it was worth, telling a Grand County District Court in January that ‘the property is inadequate security for repayment of the loan’

    Walked away?

    ‘Megan Rhodes, 65, who works for a credit union in Capitola near Santa Cruz, recently paid about $840,000 for a new 2,300-square-foot home in Windsor’

    What possible job could Megan have at a credit union that would qualify for a 840k shack loan?

    Sound lending!

      1. Which brings up a point: remember when the media would ask about such things? Instead of “red-hotcakes” REIC BS, how about looking into how these people are able to fork over $840k? Even in the two recent CA FB articles, no questions were asked of how much they put down, what their income was and what sort of loan dragged them down.

        1. Could be that homeownership is her retirement plan, like that of myriad other Americans. Since California real estate always goes up*, she should be just fine.

          * Unless it goes up in smoke…

          1. if she’s an equity locust, it might be a tax issue. IIRC, if she’s single, she would have to pay taxes on any profit more than $250K, unless she uses the proceeds to buy a house.

            As a single person, I’m really against the tax law that gives $500K to marrieds but only $250K to singles. That’s pretty unfair. As a single woman, why should I pay more tax than a couple? Since I paid for all of the house, I should reap all of the tax benefit. As more singles buy houses, maybe they’ll rethink the taxes.

          2. Since we’re discussing tax implications:

            ‘Can I deduct a loss on a primary residence?’

            ‘Unfortunately, the answer is no. A loss on the sale of a personal residence is considered a nondeductible personal expense. You can only deduct losses on the sale of property used for business or investment purposes.’

  3. ‘It’s likely that we’re just delaying the inevitable on homes that would have gone into foreclosure even when times were good’

    Last year there was ample evidence on this blog that the FHA subprime loans were cratering, and the foreclosure biz was getting ready.

    ‘Bankers already are working to build up their loan-loss reserves in anticipation of problems down the road’

    How many times does this need to be posted? The REIC are lying dogs who would sell their grandmothers for one more months commissions.

    1. “Last year there was ample evidence on this blog that the FHA subprime loans were cratering, and the foreclosure biz was getting ready.”

      The pandemic offered an excellent excuse for postponing the inevitable.

      1. The pandemic offered an excellent excuse for postponing the inevitable.

        No, the pandemic offered excellent cover to let everything crater.

  4. ‘Residential properties listed under $500,000 are selling quickly and often receiving multiple offers, he says. 2909 S.W. Upper Dr. in Portland is listed at $499,000. The property was first listed for $200,900 more on Sept. 20, 2019, and has been pending twice but is back on the market’

    ‘30621 S. Oswalt Road in Colton is listed at $488,750. The bungalow, built in 1930 on 14.90 acres, has two bedrooms, one bathroom and 1,152 square feet of living space. ‘Appears that the property is mostly level, fenced and cross fenced with some outbuildings. Cash only. Property is occupied and occupants are not to be disturbed or contacted under any circumstances. Interior inspections not available; property is being sold as occupied and as-is. Property sold through auction’

    This last one is a foreclosure. It’s been many months since the Oregonian ran a full article listing Portland area foreclosures. Why all this pretending? Remember the lux Portland apartment that went into default before it broke ground?

    1. I’ve seen that “don’t disturb the occupants” phrasing in more than one real estate listing. Do these renters have some kind of unbreakable lease? I’m sure the house is trashed beyond salvage and the value is in the land. Even then, the property is so far from Portland that a half-mil for 15 acres might be too high.

      1. It’s usually the FB. This is the trend where the lender doesn’t foreclose, so the auction (which is the foreclosure action) winnah gets to buy sight unseen and then evict. Of course that’s problematic at the moment.

      2. > Do these renters have some kind of unbreakable lease?

        Just a regular lease would be enough. A lease contract is not invalidated by sale of the property; it carries over to the new owner. Granted, there are plenty of stories of new owners who think differently and set out to kick out their tenants asap.

        1. The property I live in just sold for an absurd amount of money but I’m not going anywhere. I still got two years left on my lease.

        1. Tarek and Christina El Moussa made a show out of it: Flip or Flop. They bought the houses sight unseen and viewers had the fun of them walking in for the first time. Their schtick was to fix it up for $80K and sell for $160 over purchase price. It worked about half the time.

          But in this case, yikes. Built in 1930, only two bedrooms, way out in the sticks (even more out in the sticks for 1930). Sure, it could be some architectural wonder, but more likely it’s a Depression-era shanty which has been abused and possibly hoarded. The satellite pic shows old cars parked everywhere. I would count the house as a loss. The question is how much 15 acres is worth.

  5. But, for a number of reasons, many experts are expecting an uptick in the coming months, perhaps a big uptick.

    These REIC experts are keen fellows, aren’t they?

    1. “But, for a number of reasons, many experts are expecting an uptick in the coming months, perhaps a big uptick.”

      Keep in mind the folk wisdom of my grandma’s kitchen placard:
      ‘A watched pot never boils.’

  6. Said a stock brokerage vice president in Pasadena, ‘We spent $2 million over the last two years refurbishing our offices to accommodate more than 100 workers. Now we get five people a day working there. We don’t need all that space.

    Oh dear. What if this leads to a fundamental reappraisal of the value or need for cubicle farms? And what if the truly creative and innovative people in any given field can be more productive in the solitude and comfort of their own abodes? How will the remora fish under-achievers latch on to more capable employees so the latter can pull them along? What happens if management control freaks and micromanagers are suddenly revealed to be an impediment to real productivity and value-added work?

    Too many “oh dears” to contemplate in one sitting, folks….

    1. “…What happens if management control freaks and micromanagers are suddenly revealed to be an impediment to real productivity and value-added work?…”

      A whole new class of the unemployable. Good riddance.

      Org charts are being flatten everywhere.

  7. This is what i dont get – why not just rent a house for 1 year – and see what happens – why commit to having 2 houses if there is a possibility that the economy tanks. This is not just CA – also happening in WA state. Interest in the San Juan islands and mountains (Wenatchee) are apparently off the charts ( i only have 2nd hand hearsay – but i believe it)

    ——
    Erika Rendino and her husband, David, who together work as a real estate team, said they have seen a number of area buyers purchasing second homes to use as their primary residences during the pandemic.”

    1. so it is the leverage on 2.x % mortgages and 10% downpayment perhaps. Would be good fiduciary guidance from the banker to tell them that leverage on the way down is just as bad if things go badly.

      What is the min downpayment for a 2nd house?

      ————

      “‘We have Google buyers, and they’ve been told that they’ll work from home until July of next year,’ David Rendino said. ‘If they have to go back, they’ll do some kind of (vacation rental service).’ With interest rates for mortgages remaining near historic lows, and a glut of backlogged properties still waiting to hit the housing market, the Rendinos expect the county’s homebuying trend to extend well into the fall.”

      1. “… good fiduciary guidance from the banker …”

        Whenever I am need of a chuckle all I need to do is turn to this blog.

      2. We have Google buyers, and they’ve been told that they’ll work from home until July of next year

        Wouldn’t it be cheaper, less risky and more flexible to rent the pandemic house?

    2. “This is what i dont get – why not just rent a house for 1 year – and see what happens – why commit to having 2 houses if there is a possibility that the economy tanks.”

      – While I respect Chris Whalen, he’s clearly on the side of mortgage lenders, banks, and apparently the Fed, in terms of the “adverse market fee” of 0.5%, which, I dunno, might have already been magically repealed due to intense lobbying and opposition. I support the fee. I also support free markets (what’s that?), which means the government out of the housing market and an end to central banks, but not waiting for “pigs to fly.”

      – Most of this article can be ignored as a pro lender “puff piece,” but one line stands out as to “reasons” why everyone is once again “housing horny.” This is the crux of the matter, IMHO. I saved this article for the great “one-liner,” below, which explains Fed policy, as if there was any doubt. The Fed is, as per usual, supporting stock and housing prices. The Fed is pro capital and con labor. The wealth of the 90+% must be maintained through asset price inflation at the expense of the middle class. TINA! This is not about the alleged “wealth effect,” but rather maintaining the status quo.

      https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/opinion/new-fhfa-adverse-market-fee-is-disastrous-for-lenders
      FHFA | Opinion
      Just call it the Calabria Refinance Tax
      By Christopher Whalen August 14, 2020, 8:00 a.m. EDT 5 Min Read

      “And the FHFA action illustrates, yet again, another conflict between an objective mortgage regulator and the economic program pursued by the Federal Open Market Committee [The Federal Reserve System, aka the Fed]. Think of the change that takes effect Sept. 1 as an early scene from the film “The Godfather.” Vito Corleone tells his son Michael that he must “wet his beak.” “

      “But perhaps more ominously, the FHFA action is directly in conflict with the policy of the FOMC, which is deliberately using low interest rates and high volumes of loan refinancing in all sectors to reflate the crippled U.S. economy. One could even characterize the actions of Calabria as an attempt to sabotage the FOMC’s action and the economic recovery that is the focal point of the Trump White House.”

      https://internationalman.com/articles/a-rogue-institution-and-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-liberty-in-america/
      A Rogue Institution and a Clear and Present Danger to Liberty in America
      by David Stockman
      [September 5(?), 2020 – no date on article, and so I’m guessing here]

      “We have never heard more gibberish, double talk, and lies from one podium than we have from Fed Chairman Powell.”

      “There is no other way to say it: The Fed has become a dangerous rogue institution that has usurped plenary power over the financial system.”

      “This is all based on implicit theories that eventually lead to a massive speculative blow-off, even as it sucks the vitality out of the Main Street economy in the interim.”

      “The implicit theory is brazenly simple: The Fed believes that relentless credit expansion fosters greater economic growth and full employment. It believes that there is no practical limit to how much debt the household, business, and government sectors of the economy can tolerate or any notable adverse trade-offs from ever-higher leverage ratios.”

      “Self-evidently, lower interest rates foster more debt issuance.”

      “When economic growth falters for any reason, the Fed’s first action is to push rates even lower. This ratcheting process has gone on for more than three decades, and interest rates have, for all practical purposes, been obliterated.”

      “Needless to say, once you get in the price control business for debt, you are inherently in the price control business for all financial assets because the cost of the former drives the discount rate for equities and other long-duration assets.”

      “It is the most egregious folly ever imagined.”

      “It causes a massive windfall to the top 1% and 10%, which own 53% and 88% of the stock, respectively. It also fuels a self-reinforcing speculative mania that eventually collapses under its own weight.”

      “In a debt-saturated system, the Fed’s massive bond purchases never transmit anything outside the canyons of Wall Street. This money-printing madness only drives bond prices higher and cap rates lower. This means relentless and systematic inflation of financial asset prices.”

      “As a practical matter, the bottom 90% don’t own enough stock or even inflated government and corporate bonds to shake a stick at. Instead, what meager savings they have accumulated languish in bank deposits, CDs, or money market funds earning exactly what the Fed has decreed—nothing!”

      “So, when Powell says he’s only trying to help the average American, you have to wonder whether he is just stupid or the greatest lying fraud yet to occupy the Fed’s big chair.”

      “It doesn’t matter why. The Fed is now a rogue institution that comprises a clear and present danger to the future of prosperity and liberty in America.”

      1. He is not stupid. The FED knows exactly what they are doing. Protecting the asset value of the 1%s and sacrificing whatever 99%s had in savings, if any, and punting the 99%s’ children and grandchildren on the hook for huge taxes. Practically a return to slavery.

          1. The first step in avoiding modern slavery is avoiding debt. Debt drastically reduces your freedom and standard of living.

            The second is to need little, and make it less than you bring home. My grandparents moved to the US in the 1920s. They found the Depression years to be times of plenty in the US, full of opportunity.

      2. “The forthcoming adverse market fee could effectively raise costs for consumers looking to refinance, to the tune of $1,400 for the average consumer, the Mortgage Bankers Association is estimating.”

        So just delay buying the Samsung Galaxy Note 20 Ultra until after the home purchase has closed.

        “But perhaps more ominously, the FHFA action is directly in conflict with the policy of the FOMC, which is deliberately using low interest rates and high volumes of loan refinancing in all sectors to reflate the crippled U.S. economy.”

        The magic of securitization has allowed Wall street to sell tranches of mortgage debt, vehicle debt, etc., to the private and public pension funds across the country as “fully backed” investment products. Hence, it is now necessary to inflate away the savings of retirees while simultaneously reducing their interest rates than to simply “let it go” to palliate the free market proletariat.

    3. Sounds like “Why not both?” is going on.

      https://nypost.com/2020/09/04/new-yorkers-scramble-to-rent-posh-winter-houses-ahead-of-second-wave/

      I’m guessing that a segment of the people well off enough to rent a second house are thinking: “Hmmm.. Lots of uncertainty coming soon with elections and stuff… Hmmm.. money being helicoptered… Hmm.. Super cheap to borrow money right now. Maybe I should grab some sort of ‘hard asset’ while I’m at it”.

  8. To grasp just what a bargain Biebs scored himself, an empty lot in his neighbourhood listed in 2015 for $30m.”

    Ben, promise me that the HBB will revisit The Biebs a year from now and we’ll see what an investing genius he turned out to be.

  9. In 2016, the price was lowered to $29.95 million. According to records on Compass, the price first dropped below $20 million in October 2017. After nearly another year without any buyers, the price changed again to $19.5 million. The seller agreed to yet another price reduction in February 2019, to $17.9 million. Altman and Tutor took over the listing in November 2019 with a $16.995 million price tag.

    The HBB needs to spearhead a crowd-funding effort to build a fitting memorial to all those trillions of dear departed Yellen Bux.

        1. LOL@ I found that meme image in the comments and saved it, because it’s so true, and sadly, hilarious.

        2. Joseph Rosenbaum was killed by gunman Kyle Rittenhouse in Kenosha.He is saying “shoot me ni@@a”

          Black Lives Matter
          THIS CHANNEL HIGHLIGHT AND FOCUS HOW POWERFUL PEOPLE
          USE THERE POWER AND MONEY AGAINST MINORITY PEOPLE
          WHO FIGHT FOR BASIC RIGHT

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N70fok1R2Kg

          Some comments:

          ‘Since the first attacker shot is on video saying “Shoot me N-word” can murder charges be dropped to assisted suicide???’

          ‘Kyle: Hold my Mt. Dew’

          ‘I’ll take “FAMOUS LAST WORDS” for 1000, Alex’

          ‘So… the BLM version of Make A Wish?’

          ‘Rosenbaum wasn’t running after hero Kyle, he was running to Walmart. He heard they had children’s clothes half off!!!’

  10. ‘Although San Diego Gas & Electric tweeted out “For the 2nd night in a row, we avoided rotating outages thanks to your conservation efforts,” thousands of SDG&E customers were without power Sunday evening just at about 7:30 p.m.’

    ‘As many as 15,000 homes were without power in communities all over San Diego County, including Encinitas, Alpine, La Mesa and Lakeside, and many in between.’

    https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/california-iso-declares-stage-2-emergency-warns-of-rotating-blackouts/2400379/

    1. ‘John Geary, co-founder of small construction startup Abodu, watched California lawmakers closely in their final hours this week for bills that might boost or hurt his business.’

      ‘One hotly-contested proposal, SB 1120, would make it easier for homeowners to divide lots, allowing them to build new homes and sell them for a profit. The measure could have dramatically boosted Abodu’s sales of pre-fabricated accessory dwelling units. Geary spent weeks analyzing the market and preparing information for Bay Area homeowners.’

      “We had that ready to go,” he said. “But obviously our legislature had other plans.”

      ‘The bill stalled, capping a disappointing close to this year’s legislative session for pro-housing forces. Geary expected to sell two-bedroom units to Bay Area homeowners looking to split their lots, bringing new homes on the market for around $500,000.’

      https://www.timesheraldonline.com/2020/09/04/californias-housing-priorities-tumble-amid-coronavirus-chaos/

      1. “One hotly-contested proposal, SB 1120, would make it easier for homeowners to divide lots, allowing them to build new homes and sell them for a profit. The measure could have dramatically boosted Abodu’s sales of pre-fabricated accessory dwelling units.”

        Sounds like this guy is willing to convert American suburbs into something resembling a Brazilian favela in order to get rich.

        1. Sounds like this guy is willing to convert American suburbs into something resembling a Brazilian favela in order to get rich.

          They’ve driven the price of land so high that they are performing mental gymnastics to try to figure a way to build something in order to profit. Next up: We will remove your roof and turn your house into a multi-story mult-family.

          1. We will remove your roof and turn your house into a multi-story mult-family.

            Heh, that’s been happening in my nabe of little Cold War ranches for 20 years, and got even worse during the housing bubble.

  11. I would hate to live in a World that these thugs propose. Nothing very equitable about their nonsense. It’s just viflying the White race as grounds to take over by force.

    1. “Amid record temperatures of 121 degrees turning the state into a tinder box, a smoke-generating pyrotechnic device used to release blue or pink smoke to announce the gender of an expected baby caused the fire.”

      You can’t make-up this schitt.

      1. I guess nobody told those retards that enlightened Californians have redefined gender as a social, not biological, construct. Hence a gender reveal detonation for an unborn child makes absolutely zero sense…especially if it sparks yet another wildfire!

        1. a gender reveal detonation

          If it were a 12yo announcing as non-binary, I’m sure the family wouldn’t be billed.

          1. Even though I self-identify as a Yemeni lesbian for reparations purposes, I’m still baffled as to why “gender reveal” rates a party. Gender dysphoria and the staggeringly high rates of mental illness that go with it (8X the general population) don’t really seem like something to celebrate.

          2. I’m still baffled as to why “gender reveal” rates a party.

            Seems like an excuse for a party, gifts and gratuitous postings to Facebook, Instagram and/or Pinterest.

          3. Seems like an excuse for a party, gifts and gratuitous postings to Facebook, Instagram and/or Pinterest.

            We have a winner. As things progress this year, I keep having to lower my estimation of the average intelligence of human beings…

          4. my estimation of the average intelligence

            My estimation was pretty low to begin with but after reading r/Robinhood I’ve had to adjust it even lower. Robinhood is less about the democratization of stock trading than it is about the predation of the financially illiterate.

          5. Even though I self-identify as a Yemeni lesbian for reparations purposes

            I’m identifying as a Black Rhino. I’m endangered as well as eligible for reparations.

          6. Paul Joseph Watson has an old hilarious video depicting all the things he identified as.

            As for gender reveal, it’s just one of series of coupling parties:
            1. Engagement trip. Yes, Girl actually invites friends to go on some trip along with the couple, on the suspicion that the guy will pop the Ring and the Q on the trip. In front of everybody. And Girl can act all surprised and get all weepy, as she reaches for the selfie stick that she just happened to have with her. (I guess I’m old fashioned, but isn’t that supposed to be a private moment between the couple?)
            2. Bridal shower/trip. It used to be a party with novelty toys, or a night at a bar. Now it’s a whole weekend trip. Bachelor parties are now bachelor weekends.
            3. Slam-bang wedding. $$ Bonus points for Destination $$$$$.
            4. Honeymoon.
            5. Pregnancy party.
            6. Gender reveal party.
            7. Pre-baby vacation.
            8. Baby shower.
            9. Baby arrives party.

            I can’t wrap my head around this. I’m seriously thinking of throwing a shadenfreude party for when they break up and destroy the kids. I’ll take the video in family court and post it on Instagram. Serves them right.

          7. Likely a bottle will be opened to celebrate

            10) Bankruptcy
            11) Infidelity
            12) Divorce
            13) Child support.

            I used to think it humorous that my (former) spousal unit had a large piece of furniture called a Vanity.

  12. A reader sent this in:

    HAWAIIAN SHORES- 15-2796 Nenue St.
    Fixer-upper, fire damage, TERMS, OWNER FINANCING! Must sell, owner retiring!

    We’re seeking to sell it preferably to a carpenter/handyman type investor with tools, generator,truck, and ladder.

    Rear part of the house is repairable; front 50%is burnt. Approximately 50% of the rear looks to be in fairly good fixable shape.
    No neighbors, private, quiet short dead end street near the blue Pacific Ocean. Gentle trade winds, great climate, 5 minutes drive to quaint, rustic PAHOA Town.

    Only $43,000 with $3,000/down, $600/month, 12% interest. Owner financing. Property being sold in as is condition.

    https://honolulu.craigslist.org/big/apa/d/pahoa-pahoa-hawaiian-shores-burnt-house/7191377524.html

    Must sell? F bomb!

  13. From Bizwest in Colorado. Cover your ears if you don’t want to hear this, but some experts in the real estate and financial sectors are starting to drop the F-bomb: foreclosures. It’s not a word that has been expressed much in recent years, what with a booming economy. But, for a number of reasons, many experts are expecting an uptick in the coming months, perhaps a big uptick. The moratorium is intended to alleviate pressure on homeowners during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, federal stimulus programs, such as the recently ended $600 a week additional unemployment benefit, enabled many homeowners to remain current on their loans.”

    “But that extra unemployment benefit has ended. All of this could simply be delaying the inevitable. A recent examination of Notice of Election and Demand filings — the first step in foreclosure — for Boulder, Broomfield, Larimer and Weld counties, found some interesting data. Through August 2019, the four counties had seen 219 such filings. Through Aug. 25 — an abbreviated time frame due to BizWest’s press date — the number totaled just 100.”

    That means that even foreclosures that we would see in a normal economy are being prevented — or, rather, postponed. It’s likely that we’re just delaying the inevitable on homes that would have gone into foreclosure even when times were good. So 2021 could be brutal in terms of residential foreclosures.”

    Some points to consider in the 2020 housing boom:
    – The narrative of a “V”-shaped recovery.

    https://twitter.com/BittelJulien/status/1301872632204349440
    Julien Bittel, CFA
    @BittelJulien
    “Not good. Big spike in US permanent job losses. This will continue to weigh on US consumer confidence as the future employment outlook for the 3.4M Americans who just lost their job on a permanent basis this year becomes more uncertain.”
    [See chart]
    7:19 AM · Sep 4, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

    – Record low mortgage rates. Sub-3% even.
    – Mortgage forbearance.
    – Tighter lending standards? Is this reality or just a myth?
    – Two-tier society. The have-nots are taking it on the chin, while the haves are mostly still employed and mobile, and are encouraged to WFH, wherever that may be. The only requirement is internet access.
    – The trend of moving out of cities and higher-tax states and into the opposite locations of suburbia and lower-tax states.

    – The U.S. isn’t dealing with the reality of the pandemic force majeure. It’s just more can-kicking up until at least the Nov. 3rd elections. Then what?

    https://www.unz.com/mhudson/how-an-act-of-god-pandemic-is-destroying-the-west/
    How an “Act of God” Pandemic Is Destroying the West
    The U.S. is Saving the Financial Sector, not the Economy
    Michael Hudson • August 28, 2020

    “Before juxtaposing the U.S. and alternative responses to the corona virus’s economic effects,[1] I would like to step back in time to show how the pandemic has revealed a deep underlying problem. We are seeing the consequences of Western societies painting themselves into a debt corner by their creditor-oriented philosophy of law. Neoliberal anti-government (or more accurately, anti-democratic) ideology has centralized social planning and state power in “the market,” meaning specifically the financial market on Wall Street and in other financial centers.”

    “At issue is who will lose when employment and business activity are disrupted. Will it be creditors and landlords at the top of the economic scale, or debtors and renters at the bottom? This age-old confrontation over how to deal with the unpaid rents, mortgages and other debt service is at the heart of today’s virus pandemic as large and small businesses, farms, restaurants and neighborhood stores have fallen into arrears, leaving businesses and households – along with their employees who have no wage income to pay these carrying charges that accrue each month.”

    “By rejecting such alleviations of debts resulting from economic disruption, the U.S. economy is subjecting itself to depression, homelessness and economic polarization. It is saving stockholders and bondholders instead of the economy at large. That is because today’s rentier interests take the economic surplus in the form of debt service, holding labor and also corporate industry in bondage. Mortgage debt is the price of obtaining a home of one’s own. Student debt is the price of getting an education to get a job. Automobile debt is needed to buy a car to drive to the job, and credit-card debt must be run up to pay for living costs beyond what one is able to earn. This deep indebtedness makes workers afraid to go on strike or even to protect working conditions, because being fired is to lose the ability to pay debts and rents. So the rising debt overhead serves the business and financial sector by lowering wage levels while extracting more interest, financial fees, rent and insurance out of their take-home pay.”

    “The virus pandemic has merely acted as a catalyst ending of the long postwar boom. Yet even as the U.S. and other Western economies begin to buckle under their debt overhead, little thought has been given to how to extricate them from the debts and defaults that have accelerated as a result of the broad economic disruption.”

    1. “This deep indebtedness makes workers afraid to go on strike or even to protect working conditions, because being fired is to lose the ability to pay debts and rents. So the rising debt overhead serves the business and financial sector by lowering wage levels while extracting more interest, financial fees, rent and insurance out of their take-home pay.”

      And there in a nutshell, folks, you have the debt slavery business model which has gradually supplanted the plantation slavery business model that went out of fashion in the U.S. circa 1864.

      1. Well I’m not buying it. This “ima victim” sh$t is an excuse to sit on yer a$$ and not do anything or take risks. You can report unsafe work conditions anonymously. I haven’t seen anyone afraid to go on strike: look at the teachers unions refuse to go back to work. This past week I learned of a S AZ carpenter who got laid off and is receiving $20/hour unemployment. He was even embarrassed it was so much. But he’s taking it.

        I gotta go shopping today and I’m sure I’ll see the families in tow (does it really take 5 people to shop on a Sunday, yer all gonna die!), filling up their cart with beer, sugar water and chips, then loading it all into a snazzy new SUV.

        1. This past week I learned of a S AZ carpenter who got laid off and is receiving $20/hour unemployment. He was even embarrassed it was so much. But he’s taking it.

          I just learned a few days ago that a local contractor is behind on work because he couldn’t get his workers back. Once the extra $600 kicked in, most wouldn’t return. That caused him to get backed up and he’s still having a hard time finding people. Seems his help has started working under the table in addition to continuing to collect the UE bennies (sans $600 at this point, though I am sure anticipating the “extra $400” on the way). This sh!t is disgusting.

          1. Once the extra $600 kicked in, most wouldn’t return.

            I don’t buy that.

            I mentioned earlier that a small local trucking firm had this issue briefly. The owner told the employees that if they didn’t return he would lose everything, so if they refused he would report them to the UI office. They all returned, grumbled for a couple of days, and got back to work.

    2. “It’s just more can-kicking up until at least the Nov. 3rd elections. Then what?”

      My guesses:

      – If Republicans win, expect postponed foreclosures and evictions to resume on schedule in 2021, protecting the interests of property owners (aka Republican voters).

      – If Democrats win, expect forbearance measures and eviction moratoriums to be extended, allowing low-income renters and mortgage debtors (aka Democratic voters) to live indefinitely in houses that someone else owns.

      – You can expect the Fed to continue pushing bailouts, both stealthy and explicit, to externalize real estate loses to folks who tried their best to steer clear of the mania.

      1. As usual, youre predictions are laughable. Dems are not about solving problems but creating and nurturing them in order to use them as election issues to obtain and maintain power. And it looks like the Repubs are channeling their inner Santa Claus right now.

        Predicting that the average joe is going to get screwed by the fed is akin to predicting that tomorrow water will still be wet.

        I’m not the type to predict this fluhoax is going to hail the end of cities and office work forever but it does seem like those two trends have a lot of momentum and will be hard to reverse, particularly the latter trend which I think is a good thing – commuting hours a day to an office to do work you could easily do from home was and is senseless. Maybe a place to get together a couple times a month and have a group meeting/brainstorm is all you need, in which case that might be a good opportunity going forward, repurposing some of this office space.

  14. “Cipriani borrowed more than $62 million since 2005 to fund her failed 25-year dream of more than 4,000 homes in a year-round destination resort.”

    If my math is correct, that amounts to about $15,500 per dream home home in a year-round destination resort.

    Does it even seem plausible?

  15. “The former NYC home of a jetsetting Iranian princess has sold for $11.5 million after a $40 million price cut and 6 years on and off the market. A controversial New York City townhouse has sold for a fraction of its original $50 million asking price after six years on and off the market.”

    What’s that come out to — something like 77% off?

    (50 – 11.5) / 50 = 77%

    Arithmetic matters!

    1. In mathematics it’s always, final minus initial:
      (final – initial) / final = %change
      so…
      (11.5 – 50) / 50 = -0.77 <— neg indicating loss
      ***
      Once you get into vectors, direction matters.

    2. What’s that come out to — something like 77% off?

      Validated, bitchez! When that smug REIC troll assured one and all in here that it was un-possible for shack prices to plummet 50% or more, I told him I was holding out for 75% or more. I’m still here – he’s not.

    3. “The former NYC home of a jetsetting Iranian princess has sold for $11.5 million after a $40 million price cut and 6 years on and off the market.”

      Isn’t it wonderful that the world’s wealthy, including our enemies, are ginning up the prices of our real estate?

  16. And again, since we talk again about liberalism and neo-liberalism, we need to clarify the concepts. In US(through Britain), liberals are those who believe in taxation and generous spending of those taxes on the 99%s. LIBERO=free, or generous (spending). No need to develop much since it’s widely understood.
    In continental Europe, liberals are those who relive that only business owners know how to run a society since they are successful at running a business. But if a a society should be run as a business, then we really need to get rid of all our parents in old age, or all the sick people, and everyone else who is not of any economical value. Life is business, right?
    NEO-liberalism is a adverse take over of the governments by the corporations. Is the belief in the financial and corporate perpetual/family aristocracy, as opposed to a merit based aristocracy/elites. In Neoliberalism you have:
    1. Corporations destroying competition through cartels and price setting/manipulation(see healthcare in US), extorting the population.
    2. A declining middle class that loses everything they have to the financial nobility through the endless financial schemes, financial engineering, free money, and assets bubbles/bust cycles.
    3. The corporations use and control the government to tax people, and use those taxes to support their profiteering, their well being, and their profits under any circumstances. One example would taxpayers paying for someone’s hospital bill at exorbitant cartel prices. Taxpayers on the hook for their own cost and everyone else’s at exorbitant prices since the government is prohibited to provide socialized care, and all the competition has long been eradicated. You only have the super luxury option.
    So, instead of having a capitalist system where those who work hard and are smart prevail, and form the elites/ merit based aristocracy, we end up with a inherited and perpetual aristocracy, a group of families that form the new nobility. They are the “to big to fail” and regardless of their skill or knowledge, they are the rules. They obtain profits through extortion, and when they fail at their business they use taxpayers money to make up for it.

    On another note, I really like Plato’s view on this (also adopted by the Catholic church). He describes people in a society as:
    1. Men of wisdom, people who lived long lives and through a long life of education obtained the wisdom necessary to rule an entire society, and to know what’s good for everyone and not just for the greedy.
    2. Men of heart, those who lived long enough to know that money is not the solution, and they dedicated their lives serving the society and finding happiness and satisfaction in that.
    3. Man of instincts, the greedy that are led by their desires. They are good business people, but extremely dangerous to the society as a whole, and they should not be allowed to rule because they are primitives led by instincts.
    And as Cicero put it, the Wise get instructed by Ration, The average mind by Experience, the Stupid by Necessity, and the Beasts by Instincts.
    At least one contemporary leader comes to mind with great business expertise, and great instincts to perpetuate the interests of his clan!

  17. Holiday weekend check-in time…

    I hope everyone is enjoying themselves and relaxing away from stress. The weather is beautiful here, but I know some of you are getting roasted .. or about to get frozen.

    Not much new with the Spiffys other than continuing to prepare for winter and trying to keep Mrs. Spiffy comfortable until surgery later this month (frozen shoulder with a recently trapped/pinched nerve).

    Along the line of preparations, I’m picking up a solar generator setup for Casa Spiffy which should be fun to play with and restocking general stores. I’m curious if any other HBB’ers are feeling the need to play Ant vs. Grasshopper right now.

    On the Realtor(tm) watching front (is that like Bird Watching?), I’m seeing more houses sale at quite bubbly listing prices, and that Zillow’s data quality is getting worse (missing several active listings that are on other sites for example).

    Stay safe and healthy!

    1. Still roasting today in Las Vegas. Long-awaited cool-down begins tomorrow.

      I will be stocking up on essentials leading up to a certain date in early November.

      Finally, I hope things go well for Mrs. Spiffy!

      1. The well wishes are appreciated. The nerve getting trapped/pinched really hurts her.

        Everything non-essential has a longer wait time to schedule right now because of the virus delays earlier this year.

    2. Every single prepper channel is begging people to go to the store and stock up on everything. They are predicting shortages of anything and everything.

      I’ve been playing ant for a while. September is National Preparedness month. So this weekend I assessed what I have, especially the bug-out bag and the car kit, and made a big list for Wal-Mart. I replenished all the expired OTC first aid meds (neosporin, tummy meds, cold/allergy meds), charged up the emergency radios and flashlights, got fresh batteries, and cycled out my bottled water. It’s all re-packed and re-stashed. I already had an extra freezer, so I’m filling that with meats and frozen veggies. So I’m good for now.

        1. Boo Randy

          Thanks for link. Excellent site that I was not aware of.

          I tend to keep emergency items in my truck.

          Any thoughts from HBB readers about where to optimally store a bug out bag, and any additional items not mentioned by Gray Wolf?

          1. Same here, Blue. One in the entry closet near the door, and one in the car.

            But don’t just stop at the bug-out bag. Emergency prep is a good excuse to get your papers in order. Everyone should gather all their important papers (car titles, 1040s, birth certificate, passports, medical, etc) and put them in a gallon ziplock baggie, and then into a portable fireproof and waterproof safe in the closet with the bug-out bag. If you need to evac, toss the safe in the car, or, at least get the bag out of the safe and carry that in case you can’t drive. It will be much easier to put your life back together later.

          2. Everyone should gather all their important papers (car titles, 1040s, birth certificate, passports, medical, etc) and put them in a gallon ziplock baggie, and then into a portable fireproof and waterproof safe in the closet with the bug-out bag. If you need to evac, toss the safe in the car, or, at least get the bag out of the safe and carry that in case you can’t drive. It will be much easier to put your life back together later.

            Scan them onto a USB drive and keep it in the bag and save the weight/time.

          3. Emergency prep is a good excuse to get your papers in order.

            Speaks the truth..

            Scan them onto a USB drive and keep it in the bag and save the weight/time.

            Good idea – though some items you still want the original if possible – like Birth Certificates. I don’t go as far to use ziplock bags, but there are basically 2 drawers – one desk, one filing cabinet, that hold everything critical.

            You bring up another point to prep for – our “data” – if you’re not using a cloud backup, could you recover from having your computer or laptop being burnt to a crisp?

            I’ve got my last 13 years of financial records, 25 years of professional work and scanned copies of a lot of important documents / reference backed up across multiple locations. One set of external disks is in the safe deposit box at our local bank’s branch, but I won’t fully trust the cloud (I’m sure I’m just being stubborn)

            In a bug out situation I could grab my external backup disks, and the 2 drawer’s contents of documents in about 60-90 seconds. I’m comfortable with that.

          4. In a bug out situation I could grab my external backup disks, and the 2 drawer’s contents of documents

            This saves a lot of fuss. No need to organize food, water and survival tools.

          5. This saves a lot of fuss. No need to organize food, water and survival tools.

            Pfft. you’re being silly now. Of course that’s in addition to the usual items.

            It’s a fair question though to ask oneself: If my house burned down/got destroyed and I had to escape on little notice, what can’t easily be replaced?

          6. being silly

            Well, you caught me.

            If I am in save our lives mode, I don’t want to carry 25 years of financial/work records while on foot looking for a safe place to overnight. You have property, why not pour some concrete and have your own fireproof backup document storage?

          7. what can’t easily be replaced

            You, your loved ones and pets. Everything else is replaceable or a nicety. Emergencies don’t always give you notice to collect your things.

          8. Emergencies don’t always give you notice to collect your things.

            Keep a one-minute bag that you can grab on your way out, with a copy of critical records (insurance policy #s, scanned ID, lease/title, etc), a set of clothes, some water and a snack while you’re out on the curb watching your world burn.

            @Spiffy, I keep a USB drive at work, and in safe deposit box with the same docs, backed up about once a quarter. I don’t trust the cloud, but keep backups of everything (in case of hardware failure), and of critical items on jump drives in different locations (bug-out bag, safe deposit, etc) so I can always access the critical stuff.

            Of course, encrypt that data….I just use an encrypted zip file.

          9. you can grab on your way out . . . while you’re out on the curb watching your world burn

            I was on the subway to One Broadway when the first plane hit the WTC on 9/11. I came above ground to see a hole ripped through the first tower. There was no opportunity to grab anything. As the buildings fell, we were being encouraged to take a ferry off the island. My fur-baby was on the Upper West Side so I walked the 6 hours to get home.

          10. I was on the subway to One Broadway when the first plane hit the WTC on 9/11

            I have no answer for that one! I did keep a bug-out bag at work/office in case of earthquakes, unrest, etc…and one in my car, but I’m not sure what you’d do when in-transit via train, other than keep necessities on you/in your work bag?

          11. “Of course, encrypt that data….I just use an encrypted zip file.”

            I’ve been carrying an IronKey 64-gb flash drive, that gets updated every few days using a robocopy script. It goes with me whenever I leave home, exercise, etc., things I learned about continuity of operations.

          12. I was wondering if I should keep this thread going. There some of us on both sides of it’s a good idea/you’re being silly to worry about.

            Before I even saw @Redpilled Redhead’s reply, I was thinking of explaining that how much you bother to grab will vary depending on what the emergency is. If nukes have been launched at the US West coast, we’re going to be in the car in about 60 seconds flat and peeling out down the driveway. If we’re evacuating out of caution because of approaching fires and have 30-60 minutes, the old wagon is going to be filled up in 20 to 30 minutes. (I’ve traveled so regularly the past 12 years I can pack for a 2-5 day trip in 5-10 minutes)

            The two drawers I have organized only represent about a small to medium briefcase’s worth of stuff, but it’s the most important items: our birth certificates, our passports, social security cards, various credit type cards that are normally not used in person, notarized documents like our divorce decrees and orders, life insurance policies, investments, paper list of all online accounts, key mortgage and home/auto insurance documents, and keys to the safe deposit box. And and handful of portable hard drives (which are all kept in one spot). If my knee was feeling good, I bet I could have them all loaded into a container in under 90 seconds.

            Basically the idea is if we had to set up shop for a few weeks far away out of something like a hotel room, we would a) have everything we needed to contact whomever we need to do business with and access all accounts, travel with identification, deal with legal matters and perhaps work remotely and b) Not leave anything behind which would make it easy for looters to loot, access or commit identity theft with.

            All that said, the preference is to bug in and hole up. For being in an urban area, Casa Spiffy is unusually secure, hard to get to, easy to defend, very well stocked, and not close to any likely hotspots.

            Still, that doesn’t remove the need for the thought exercise “If you have to leave in a hurry, how would you go about it?”

            @drumminj – all my important non-work data and documents live in a truecrypt volume. Like you, I’m not in a hurry to put any of it in the cloud.

          13. On the topic of this thread, I’d recommend reading through this blog of someone who lived through the Katrina evacuation:

            http://theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/index.html

            It’s really long, but on point and ultimately recommends having a 1-minute, 1-hour, and 1-day plan for evacuation. Check out How to Use This Site if you don’t want to read the whole thing.

            The TL;DR is to think about things ahead of time, determine what’s important, and be ready to grab and go.

            I read through the whole thing several years ago and found it worthwhile.

          14. “I read through the whole thing several years ago and found it worthwhile.”

            Nice material for the evening. Thanks!

            I’ve perused similar stories regarding civil strife leading to the collapse of South Africa, e.g., getting your family out safely and starting over amid formidable predators carrying AK47s to those in expensive suits.

      1. oxide

        Do you have an emergency power supply?

        In an extended power outage how would you handle your freezer situation? Thx.

        1. > In an extended power outage how would you handle your freezer situation?

          We (most of us) are more vulnerable to an extended (1 week+) outage than we like to acknowledge.

          The smoke from the fires in eastern Washington just rolled in during the last hour. I spoke to a former co-worker of mine (now working for a big defense contractor) who has family out near Malden which got burned to a crisp today. He’s a big prepper and one of the few people I directly know that I share details of my perpetrations with. Anyway, summer fires are just one of many things I see that could disrupt power – enough to get it on my prep radar.

          I particularly like the modular power system these guys came up with.. enough so that I’ve got something on order. https://inergytek.com/

          Much like Mark Watney in The Martian, I did the math – “How much power do I need to keep the fridge, freezer running/food safe, and key appliances operational, etc? And how much solar input would I need to recharge each day assuming less than perfect conditions?”

          1. “The smoke from the fires in eastern Washington just rolled in during the last hour.”

            There was a large fire near Omak, and strong winds from the north carried the smoke south into the Columbia Basin area darkening the skies to near dusk conditions for several hours until the winds shifted from the east and still strong, gusting over 50-mph, which carried the smoke to Wenatchee and over the Cascades to the Puget Sound. We lost three sections of fence snapping the 4×4 posts at ground level. There was also a significant dust storm too, and everything outside is covered with a fine particulate. Hehe…there’s my chores for the week!

          2. “Did the fence snapped due to the winds?”

            Yes, the wind, but the treated 4x4s were cheap (think spec house), so there’s likely rot from years of sprinkler over-spray too. However, I saw chunks of 3-tab asphalt shingles on several streets on my way to the Post Office this morning. It was a strong wind, alright.

        2. I don’t have any emergency backup e-, but it’s something I’ve been thinking about. One of these days I’ll spend the $2K for an Inergy/Apex solar backup unit with the solar panels. As long as I can run the microwave, the laptop, and my freezer, I can live for quite a while. I have no intention of getting a gas generator. Those are dangerous, noisy, need to be refueled, and will attract rioters and marauders. I tested my freezer. It’s good for at least 24-36 hours without power.

          It’s always amusing to see people run out and buy bags of ice when there’s a storm. They should have bought the ice already. But bags of ice aren’t the best. Instead, use water bottles. They are better than ice because you can stuff them into every nook and cranny of the freezer. And it’s a great way to store emergency water too.

          1. My backup for all of this is my old Airstream. Big refrigerator/freezer that runs on propane or electricity. 100 # propane tank. 7kW Onan generator. 60 gallon gas tank. 60 gallon water tank. Inverter and 300 amphr house bank.

            If I had excess meat in the chest freezer at the house and grid down, I’d spend a day running the pressure canner. Pantry has plenty of canned food always.

          2. b have no intention of getting a gas generator. Those are dangerous, noisy, need to be refueled, and will attract rioters and marauders

            That’s a couple of the upsides I see with the newest systems. It sounds crazy to be worried about opsec, yet crazy is becoming the new normal.

            The lithium+solar systems look to be the lowest maintenance option – something I can keep around for 10-20 years, and just check on the charge every 6 months or so when not used. The solar I can feedback into the grid most of the time, so there’s a small trickle return there. No moving parts, so no maintenance/failure points there, and no need to obtain and store/stabilize/replace fuel in a usage situation.

            The downsides include more initial expense, and lower peak output, but they’re much smaller/lighter than a generator. I suppose having both would be ideal.

        3. My system includes 7200wh of Battleborn batteries, a Magnum 48v 120/240 inverter and 900W of solar, along with a backup Yamaha 6300isde tri-fuel genny. Rather not bring the gen out unless I really have to. The battery/inverter should let me keep the frig / freezer and a few lights going for a couple days before charging.

    3. All like minded friends are in ant mode and some looking at exit options if things… sorry when things go full Soviet in the US.

      1. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: if you are making plans to escape the US when the SHTF, you will need a foreign passport, as you will be turned away if you show up with only a US passport.

        1. …if you are making plans to escape the US when the SHTF…

          I’m staying no matter what. If there’s some sort of civil war, I’m going to join Kyle and friends.

        2. Likely very true.

          The thing I would consider about bugging out to another country is – do you have family or friends there waiting for you/a place to take you in? Otherwise you’re going to be the new stranger in town who doesn’t know the locals and how things work.

          1. I assume that most who are planning on bailing out will want to go to another anglosphere nation. Of course, they will probably be in their own turmoil and the last thing they will want is a deluge of yanks begging to be let in.

            But you are quite right about needing some sort of a support group when you arrive, even if you have the right papers. And you will need to be prepared ahead of time. Once the US “goes Soviet” it will be impossible to get any money out of here at that time. So either you’ve already expatriated some money, or you will most likely be very, very poor when you leave and will need relatives who can take you in.

            Of course, this has all kinds of pitfalls. Your expatriated savings could be decimated by inflation or a devaluation. And while it is expatriated you might not have access to it.

            In the end, leaving the country won’t be an option for most, as they won’t be able to procure the papers required.

          2. some sort of a support group when you arrive

            Don’t be a candy ass. Greatest country to live in on the planet. Don’t give it up, ever.

          3. Don’t be a candy ass.

            Pfft. I’ve made it very clear over many comments here that I’m preparing for bugging in, not out.

            Seriously.. there are 4 million people in the greater Metro area… if even 10% of them try to bug out, given the mountainous terrain, it will be a s*itsh*w of insanely epic proportion.

          4. COVID-19 outbreak in the mountains without shelter, medical care or provisions sounds like a survivalist fantasy.

          5. A small town rental about 90-min from a metro should do it for anything other than an E.L.E.

            Seems like the kind of thing you’d need to lease and stock before any crap started flying. Having vacationed for a few days in such locations, I worry that they’d get overwhelmed in a rush, and the local stores picked clean.

          6. When I think of civil strife I think of riots, which will fade quickly once the shooting starts. The full-on food and water thing for months on end takes too much planning energy. I have faith that reasonable people will rapidly militia for security until the authorities to get their priorities straight, e.g., electric power, potable water, sanitation and eventually security.

          7. And if you bug out to another country are they going to be more F’ed up than the U.S.? I have dual citizenship, U.S. and Ireland, with both passports. Ireland ain’t looking as good as it used to now, unfortunately.

          8. I have dual citizenship, U.S. and Ireland, with both passports.

            Theoretically you could go anywhere in the EU with an Irish passport. Whether there will be anywhere there worth going to is another matter.

        3. A Polish friend said the same as he was trying to apply for study abroad decades ago and was denied.

  18. Archive dot is link to New York Times article pimping the state bailout narrative:

    “Across the nation, states and cities have made an array of fiscal maneuvers to stay solvent and are planning more in case Congress can’t agree on a fiscal relief package after the August recess.

    House Democrats included nearly $1 billion in state and local aid in the relief bill they passed in May, but the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has said he doesn’t want to hand out a “blank check” to pay for what he considers fiscal mismanagement, including the enormous public-pension obligations some states have accrued. There has been little movement in that stalemate lately.

    Economists warn that further state spending reductions could prolong the downturn by shaking the confidence of residents, whose day-to-day lives depend heavily on state and local services.

    “People look to government as their backstop when things are completely falling apart,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If they feel like there’s no support there, they lose faith and they run for the bunker and pull back on everything.”

    http://archive.is/BOKWo

    “In April, with economic activity at low ebb, Illinois lawmakers sent a detailed wish list to their state’s congressional delegation that included $10 billion for the coming year’s pension contribution.”

    A wish list? How does this sound: GET F*D ILLINOIS.

    No gibs for you!!!

        1. PERA is so hosed. But when the Dems finally convince voter to repeal TABOR, it will be best to not own any property in the Centennial state.

  19. Wtf is a “criticised loan”?

    These banksters have such fancy terminology for describing toxic crap loans…

    1. The term is a bit too quaint and cryptic for my taste. Why not go for something more accurately descriptive, like “Craterville loans”?

    2. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      US banks
      US banks signal mounting concern over real estate lending
      Surge in so-called criticised loans driven by upheaval in property sector
      Boarded-up windows in the Nicolett Mall shopping district in downtown Minneapolis
      © CRAIG LASSIG/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
      Robert Armstrong in New York 11 hours ago

      US banks are increasingly worried about being repaid on loans secured against commercial property, as offices, malls and hotels continue to stand empty.

      The darkening outlook of banks is laid bare by disclosures on so-called criticised loans, which are flashing warning signals about a borrower’s ability to pay.

      Among the 10 banks with the largest increases, criticised loans rose by 62 per cent in aggregate in the second quarter, but criticised commercial real estate loans rose by 144 per cent, to $26bn, according to an analysis by the Financial Times.

      The banks with the largest total increases include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, three of the four largest banks in the US by assets. Criticised loans at those banks are now equivalent to 9, 13, and 25 per cent of tier one equity capital — the core measure of a bank’s financial strength — respectively, according to S&P Market Intelligence.

      “People are looking pretty closely at criticised loans, particularly CRE loans. Because they’ve looked around the city and noticed it’s pretty empty,” said Brian Foran, regional bank analyst at Autonomous Research.

  20. “Wtf is a ‘criticised loan’?”

    Seek -> Find

    A criticized loan is rated special mention, substandard, doubtful, or loss. In addition, the severity of classifications lessened, with a 50 percent reduction in credits rated doubtful or loss. … These loans comprised 40.1 percent of SNC commitments, but accounted for 58.4 percent of criticized commitments.
    https://www.fdic.gov › …PDF

  21. The other day I was playing my naive usual ideological self by questioning the Constitutionality or legality of the rent moratoriums and Ben and others didn’t see it. Here is a good take down of how courts are seeing at least the residential side and of course the thing that stands our is that good old ‘for the general welfare’ which means anything the gov decides is a OK. https://www.crowell.com/NewsEvents/AlertsNewsletters/all/Court-Rejects-Landlords-Constitutional-Challenges-to-New-York-Executive-Order-Suspending-Evictions == Azz rape for landlords. This could apply in other states certainly.

    Also for those that do still have jobs and can work remotely you may be able to truly work remotely very soon with Starlink.

    1. Have all the details and costs of Starlink service ever been announced? I still see estimates of $100-300 for installation, and $80/month for the service. But does each individual have to buy or rent one of the ground stations for their home? How much will that cost? Etc.

  22. Oh bugger…not more stock market losses today after the long weekend. When will the carnage end!?

    1. Oil is really tanking. Have traders figured out we still won’t need much of it, even after COVID-19?

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