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Ten Out Of 10 Investors Do Not Want To Buy Unless Owners Are Willing To Give Massive Discounts

A report from the Globe and Mail in Canada. “Starting Thursday, Toronto homeowners must register with the city if they want to fill their units for any period less than 28 days. The new registration process is one of a slew of rules that may potentially tamp down the short-term rental market in the city at a time when it is already under pressure. Julia Metus, a saleswoman at Realty Executives Plus Limited Brokerage, said she has seen the decline in condo prices and rental rates.”

“‘Prices have softened a little bit in some condos. The obvious hot ones – the buildings that people are always trying to get into – a good agent is going to price it well. But in some buildings there are a lot for sale. Is there a lot for sale because a lot of them used to be rental units? I’d say so, yeah,’ Metus said.”

From Bloomberg on the UK. “British mortgage lenders are beginning to batten down the hatches for an oncoming spike in unemployment. HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc and Natwest Group Plc have tightened restrictions on home loans for risky borrowers as officials unwind pandemic-support efforts. ‘Life could get very difficult,’ said Mick McAteer, a former board member of the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority and now a housing advocate. ‘I’m not sure people fully understand that we are just coming to the end of the ‘emergency’ phase of the Covid crisis.'”

“Regulators, meanwhile, say they don’t know how much was loaned to those most at risk of losing their jobs in the downturn: the workers in the booming gig economy. ‘Do they really know how much people borrow and to what extent this is risky? The answer is no, they don’t,’ said Alla Koblyakova, a lecturer at Nottingham Trent University who studies the mortgage market. She was surprised to find that some borrowers spend 55% of their household income on home-loan repayments.”

From 9 News in Australia. “Investors should be wary of three Sydney suburbs and two Melbourne inner-city neighbourhoods because of looming rental apartment over-supply, a new report has warned. The just-released study from RiskWise Property Research detailed what it claimed are Australia’s 10 postcodes most at risk of new units flooding an already weakened rental market.”

“Pete Wargent, co-founder of Buyers Buyers, said rental markets have been weak for inner-city apartments due to the absence of international students and tourists. Uncertainty in the economy has been heightened in 2020, he said. ‘The unit oversupply issue has been with us for some years now,’ Mr Wargent said.”

From News.com.au in Australia. “Gary Davies and his partner were paying $950 in rent per week for their run-down flat – but they’ve slashed $300 off that hefty bill by taking part in the nation’s COVID exodus. The couple realised rents had been falling across the city as a result of the coronavirus crisis, and decided to move out of their ground floor Potts Point apartment and into a brand new one in Zetland. Their new home is on the 15th floor with ‘amazing views,’ lifestyle amenities and a modern kitchen – and not only is it $300 a week cheaper at $650, they also managed to score two weeks of free rent as landlords scramble to entice apartment tenants in particular.”

“‘Where we were living before was quite expensive and it wasn’t bad, but it was old and needed a bit of a renovation with mould on the roof and that kind of stuff – there was no light at all,’ Mr Davies told news.com.au. ‘Some mates were moving to Zetland so we looked around and found a brand new apartment on the 15th floor with a pool and sauna that’s so much cheaper, so it has been a good decision. It’s got a marble kitchen and it is basically a big upgrade – for $300 less a week than before.'”

“The 28-year-old said he had decided to look into moving house as it was now a renter’s market. ‘I heard through the grapevine that because of COVID-19 people can’t rent out apartments – I actually heard of one place offering four weeks of free rent (to lure renters),’ he said. ‘Our new place was on the market for $800 before we got it for $650 after they dropped the price. Thank you COVID – it’s one of the only good things to come out of it.'”

The South China Morning Post. “Veteran investors in Hong Kong property, anticipating a deeper correction in prices amid dwindling buying activity, the coronavirus pandemic and worsening US-China relations, are rapidly cashing out of their holdings. ‘Their moves can be seen as a kind of risk management,’ said Joseph Tsang, chairman of JLL Hong Kong, attributing the sales to practically closed borders between Hong Kong and China, coronavirus pandemic and rising US-China tensions that have badly affected the city’s economy.”

“‘Ten out of 10 investors do not want to make a decision to buy unless owners are willing to give massive discounts,’ Tsang said.”

From Asia One. “We all say we want a running start to our home values; but we don’t mean a running start off a cliff. Sometimes though, that’s exactly what happens: The price looks like it’s going to hike up all the surrounding properties, then falls flat when the market turns up its nose. In this article, we look at some Singapore new condos that have seen their prices fall shortly after completion; and some commentary into what could possibly have gone wrong.”

“We should note that The Siena has only 54 units. A prevalent problem with small developments is the limited number of transactions; even a handful of units selling low can quickly drag down the pricing. So it doesn’t help that between 2019 to this year, we saw three unprofitable transactions at The Siena: Transaction on September 9, 2019 at $1,745 psf (purchased at $2,311 psf, for an overall loss of $451,000). Transaction on March 19, 2020 at $1,765 psf (purchased at $1,979 psf, for an overall loss of $115,140. Transaction on April 27 at $1,629 psf (purchased at $1,717 psf, for an overall loss of $69,456).”

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This Post Has 65 Comments

  1. ‘‘The unit oversupply issue has been with us for some years now’

    Yep.

    ‘so we looked around and found a brand new apartment on the 15th floor with a pool and sauna that’s so much cheaper, so it has been a good decision. It’s got a marble kitchen and it is basically a big upgrade – for $300 less a week than before’

    That’s the spirit!

  3. Som Ting Wong

    ““Ten out of 10 investors do not want to make a decision to buy unless owners are willing to give massive discounts,’ Tsang said.”

    3. I’m thinking this tidbit is a hint that prices are cratering. Every real estate investor is happy to HODL when prices are increasing at double digit rates of mania gains. The moment that prices start to crater, nobody wants to touch investment properties with a ten foot pole.

  4. They would if banks ate their bad loans and bankers went to jail for fraud and GAAP violations.

    ““Regulators, meanwhile, say they don’t know how much was loaned to those most at risk of losing their jobs in the downturn: the workers in the booming gig economy. ‘”

    1. “Regulators, meanwhile, say they don’t know how much was loaned to those most at risk of losing their jobs…”

      Plot twist: they’re not actually sure which ones even had jobs to begin with.

    2. Given MBS securitization plus
      Unlimited Quantitative Easing, is there anything to prevent the Fed from swallowing up all the defaulted mortgages and burying them forever on its bloated balance sheet?

      And for that matter, what limits them from snapping up any other flavor of soured debt (consumer, automotive, student loan, etc.) from lenders at premium prices and burying it on their balance sheet? I don’t understand the stated need for fiscal bailouts when the central bank has unlimited discretion.

      1. And for that matter, what limits them from snapping up any other flavor of soured debt (consumer, automotive, student loan, etc.) from lenders at premium prices and burying it on their balance sheet?

        There are no limits. That’s exactly what they’re doing right now.

    1. Coronavirus
      San Diego County leaders move to exclude SDSU from case rate calculation
      Public Health Officer Dr. Wilma Wooten confirms the county’s case rate would be only 6.0 if San Diego State’s numbers were excluded
      Author: Richard Allyn (Reporter)
      Published: 11:02 PM PDT September 15, 2020
      Updated: 11:02 PM PDT September 15, 2020

      SAN DIEGO — On Tuesday, San Diego County’s coronavirus case rate climbed to 7.9, placing many local businesses in jeopardy of having to shut down once again.

      This disturbing development came as San Diego State University’s COVID-19 case count continued to increase, and university officials announced an expanded testing program to begin on Wednesday.

      SDSU’s numbers are impacting the county’s path toward the most restrictive “purple tier” and the moves county leaders are making to reverse this trend.

      San Diego State officials stressed Tuesday that no COVID transmission has occurred so far in its classrooms or research facilities.

      Even as it unveiled this new comprehensive testing program, some questioned whether this should have been put in place long before.

      “It is easy to play Monday morning quarterback,” said Luke Wood, SDSU’s vice-president for student affairs. “The guidance has changed and thus our response has changed.”

      As part of that changed response, San Diego Stare is now requiring that all of its on-campus students be tested for coronavirus as part of a new surveillance testing program

      As of Wednesday night, there have been 676 confirmed cases of COVID-19 among San Diego State students.

      In the meantime, as the state released San Diego county’s latest case rate of 7.9, county Public Health Officer Dr. Wilma Wooten made it clear that if San Diego State’s numbers were taken out of the equation, the local case rate would only be 6.0.
      …

    2. San Diego State student population = 33,778
      Confirmed SDSU student COVID-19 cases = 676
      San Diego County population = 3,379,160
      SDSU student share of San Diego County population =
      33,778 / 3,379,160 = 1%
      SDSU student COVID-19 case rate = 676 / 33,778 = 2%
      SDSU student cases as share of SD County population =
      676 / 3,379,160 = 0.02%

      So how is it that taking SDSU students out of the equation would make the SD County Covid-19 case rate drop from 7.9 to 6.0? There is something very funny about Covid-19 maths, as practiced by governmentarians.

      1. They might be referring to positivity rate, which is the number of COVID tests that show positive. In places where testing is voluntary, the rate doesn’t have much meaning. In places where testing is required for all, the positivity rate will be higher since you’re catching asymptomatic cases.

        1. “They might be referring to positivity rate, which is the number of COVID tests that show positive.”

          With no control over who gets tested, this number is meaningless.

      1. Financial Times
        Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
        Coronavirus treatment
        Is the company with a 20-second coronavirus test for real?
        iAbra touted Heathrow as its ‘launch customer’ but doubts arise over the technology
        The team behind the 20-second test, from left, Greg Compton, Shane Tingey, Justin Phillimore and Richard Tyson from TTElectronics
        © Russell Sach
        Anna Gross and Jemima Kelly in London 2 hours ago

        Rapid and reliable coronavirus tests have so far defeated the combined research skills and financial firepower of the richest countries and corporations.

        Yet a company with four employees, whose head office is registered in the village of Toddington*, 40 miles north of London, claims to have developed a saliva test that takes just 20 seconds to process.

        If it works, it could offer a route out of the coronavirus crisis and prove a remarkable testament to the ingenuity of a man with no formal scientific education.
        …

        1. A test without a trillion times “amplification” might produce dramatically less false positives. Then we could all stop being so silly.

          Yes, a trillion. Double a scrap of RNA 40 times. 2^(40) = 1 trillion.

          1. Strictly speaking, they are not false positives. You’re still positive. It’s just that the level of virus is not high enough to be infectious. But yes, we don’t need a super-sensitive test to leave the house.

          2. they are not false positives

            The PCR test is not 100% accurate. There are papers in the CDC archives that discuss false positives in detail.

            High levels of amplification drastically increase the risk of false positives. This helps us make bad decisions.

      1. ‘Six in 10 developers globally have delayed projects in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, which also has many builders rethinking their future projects, according to new research.’

        ‘Of those developers who’ve pressed pause, 44% are rethinking the design in light of the health crisis, according to the report from global real estate firm Knight Frank, which was released Wednesday in the U.K. The survey included 160 developers across 22 locations, many of which are major gateway cities, such as New York and London, and underscores how the pandemic is already reshaping future housing supply.’

        the construction delays could exacerbate concerns about affordability and limited housing supply in certain markets, where development was already slowing. ‘In Sydney, for example, completion of developments with four floors or more is forecast to drop 60% this year compared to 2019. New development of high-density housing has also slowed in London and Singapore. “A pause for reflection amid a crisis is to be expected,” wrote Flora Harley, an associate in global residential research at Knight Frank. “But the scale of the current hiatus is surprising and could prompt policymakers to consider incentives to spur development.”

        https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/developers-globally-are-delaying-projects-and-rethinking-design-following-coronavirus-219504

        1. ‘T. James Agosto stays busy during the pandemic as a realtor in Central Florida, with more activity on one home than he’d ever seen. “In two days, we had 17 offers,” he said. “We saw a little decline during the April timeline, but after that, it’s pedal to the metal.”

          ‘With low interest rates and more people leaving northern states for the South, Agosto told News 6 he plans to see more demand continue through the year. “They’re going for top price,” he said. “It’s an insane market right now.”

          https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/09/15/the-coronavirus-pandemic-has-made-homebuying-harder-heres-how/

          1. ‘Supervisors Janice Hahn and Hilda Solis co-authored a movement calling for $four million in funding for deferred and forgivable house owner loans and $1.5 million for foreclosures prevention counselors who may also help householders modify loan phrases with banks.’

            “We have been able to make progress keeping renters in L.A. County in their homes during this crisis by implementing an eviction moratorium and putting $100 million toward rent relief for families struggling to pay rent,” Hahn mentioned. “But homeowners are struggling too and without a concerted effort on the county*s part, we may be facing a wave of oncoming foreclosures and homelessness.”

            https://fintechzoom.com/fintech-news-loans/la-county-to-spend-5-5-million-on-homeowner-loans-foreclosure-prevention-daily-news/

  7. Discounts compared with the peak of the bubble? Not enough.

    Go back to the mid-1990s, before the first of three bubbles.

    Adjust for inflation.

    Then consider two opposing factors — interest rates are lower. BUT later born generations (the buyers, savers and investors) are paid 25 percent less, on average, than those who were in their peak earnings years back them. I’d call it a wash.

    That gets back to reasonable prices/rents, not low prices/rents.

    THEN we can talk about overbuilding, and economic changes that make certain kinds of real estate worth less.

      1. “I’ve not heard a single person in Soho and Noho raise an objection to a 100% affordable development that abides by the existing generous zoning allowances governing the size of new development being build on any of the lots in question,” Berman said. “What they do object to is destroying neighborhood protections for the sake of lining the pockets of developers, and producing a flood of luxury housing that would far outweigh the comparatively small amount of affordable housing created, which would be less than could be built on these sites under existing size restrictions.”

        https://www.amny.com/real-estate/rezoning-report-on-soho-noho-disputed-over-conflict-of-interest-claims/

        1. Orlando Sentinel
          Orlando’s dirty little secret: Poverty in a tourism town
          Orlando no longer offers cheap living. Last year, we ranked worst in America for affordable housing. But that’s also just treating a symptom of our chronic condition.
          21 hours ago

          1. Miami Beach condo residents pay more than $900K per year for pool they can’t currently use — under lease that lasts until 2070

            ‘Kim Alessi: “The condo regulation laws need to be changed to reflect that this is not a proper law and void this lease out. We’ve paid for 49 years.”

            ‘Alan DelForn: “And it still has another 50-plus years to go, which means that they’re going to be collecting another roughly $75 million, and anyone in their right mind would go ‘What are you, crazy? One hundred million dollars for a pool?’”

            ‘We reached out to the developer and family trust that collects the lease payments but have not heard back. Meanwhile, unit owners see no end in sight. Brenda Torres: “We have grandmothers, grandfathers. We have single mothers, young families, and from every angle, I mean, it just doesn’t seem fair.”

            https://wsvn.com/news/investigations/miami-beach-condo-residents-pay-more-than-900k-per-year-for-pool-they-cant-currently-use-under-lease-that-lasts-until-2070/

          3. Housing bubbles are bad for society. They destroy business and industry as shelter costs siphon off all of the disposable income once used for other discretionary purchases.

          5. The old “company store” model. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

            Actually, they already do it (company housing) for their “college program” workers. College students can work a semester at Disneyworld and get college credits for the semester. Not sure how that would show up on a transcript. As an internship? Or as party time? I have been told that being a Disneyworld college program alum is supposed to be seen as a big positive on a new grad resume, though from what I have heard they mostly work as “cast members” and not white collar workers, so I don’t get what would be so special about it. I also heard that the program was shut down for the pandemic and all the students were sent home.

          8. Right, and decrease their salary by an order of magnitude higher than someone moving back to, say, Wisconsin.

        2. Soho and Noho? Ha!

          New York City has the least restrictive zoning and most favorable climate for development (tax breaks, no infrastructure costs) of anyplace outside of Houston. Even when there are rules, they aren’t enforced.

          But Soho and Noho? Minimum unit size of 1,800 square feet in the middle of Manhattan.

          You see it isn’t exclusionary zoning. It’s because these are supposed to be “joint living-working requirements for artists,” and they need room for their studios!

          (Otherwise, its a manufacturing zone).

          You want NY progressive hypocrisy? Ben just came across the motherland.

    2. How bout them falling housing prices my good friend…… How bout it.

      Bellingham, MA Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Boston Area Rental Rates And Housing Prices Plummet

      https://www.movoto.com/bellingham-ma/market-trends/

      One noted economist stated, “Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be less tomorrow for decades to come.”

  9. “Significant errors in government oversight” cited as a prime factor in Boeing pushing out an unsafe aircraft design. This seems to be a systemic issue as captured regulators and enforcers turn a blind eye to corporate and Wall Street malfeasance. But I’m sure our globalist-captured Republicrat duopoly will get right on this and put things right.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/boeing-deception-alleged-in-scathing-house-report-on-max-crashes?srnd=premium&sref=5CqwjcI3

    Sweeping failures by Boeing Co. engineers, deception by the company and significant errors in government oversight led to the two fatal crashes of the 737 Max, congressional investigators have concluded.

    A 245-page report issued Wednesday provides the most scathing account so far of the miscalculations that led to 346 deaths, the grounding of Boeing’s best-selling jet and billions of dollars in losses for the manufacturing giant.

    1. FWIW, foreign government agencies also dropped the ball. But the FAA was clearly not doing its job.

      That so many “legacy” (and fairly bulletproof) airliners have been permanently parked and will never fly again means that the new and poorly tested models will eventually pick up the slack.

      Boeing is having another field day with poor quality on its South Carolina built Dreamliners. Apparently this has been a known issue and some carriers have been refusing to take delivery of the South Carolina plant jets.

  10. The CDC said COVID has killed 121 people under the age of 21 in the United States. Meanwhile, rates of depression, anxiety, and suicide have soared among young people under lockdown.

    I’m not a public health expert like St. Greta, but this wholesale lockdown strategy seems very unsound from a risk/benefit standpoint.

    2. The stats which various ‘trusted sources’ are still twisting themselves in knots while trying to pretend that this doesn’t mean they screwed up. https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/08/30/enron-level-scandal-cdc-reports-just-6-of-covid-19-deaths-occurred-in-people-without-comorbidities-966362

      Remember comrades, “We’re all in this together. Wear a mask.” This was said no less than 6 times in a corporate training video here at a large bank that is identified by 3 initials from Jekyll Island.

      Other news: Fauci: I’m ‘Taking Vitamin D Supplements’ To Help Prevent Covid. Hahahahahaa. I take about 5,000 D3 IUs a day and have had one day of the sniffles over the last year with no flu. Many people are D deficient if they eat a Western diet because of the constant inflammation caused by said diet.

      And last but not least: A federal judge in Pennsylvania issued a ruling Monday that declared in no uncertain terms that the state’s coronavirus lockdowns are unconstitutional. “Even in an emergency, the authority of government is not unfettered,” Stickman said. “The liberties protected by the Constitution are not fair-weather freedoms – in place when times are good but able to be cast aside in times of trouble.”

      We need lawsuits with discovery in order to find out which governors, mayors and city councils (looking at you DeSantis) took money in exchange for lock-downs and mask mandates.

      1. We need lawsuits with discovery in order to find out which governors, mayors and city councils (looking at you DeSantis) took money in exchange for lock-downs and mask mandates.

        ^^^^This. In the spirit of “never let a crisis go to waste,” Newsom & Co. out in California wasted no time inking deals with dodgy Chinese firms to deliver defective PPE. OK, so the taxpayers got scammed, but those deals doubtless generated highly lucrative kickbacks from the Democrats’ ideological comrades in the CCP.

        https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article241990106.html

    3. Give hospitals $19k for each food poisoning death and you would have 180,000 food poisoning deaths in the United States.

    2. Makes one wonder if these people drink their own koolaid. I suppose they can tell themselves that those leaving are “losers” who can’t cut it in the former golden state, never mind that those people end up thriving elsewhere.

      Admitting that they turned California into a sh!thole means admitting the Narrative is false and that just won’t happen. Of course, it can get to the point where being rich won’t guarantee that you can isolate yourself from the cr@p.

      1. Very happy to call myself a loser then. Moved to Boise from Fremont (and Sunnyvale before that), and our rent decreased almost 60% when I moved up here, and rent as a percentage of monthly take-home income dropped from 71% to 35%.

        You tell me who the loser is with those #s. I’d say it’s anyone forced to live in that craphole.

    3. Until the sheeple stop voting them into office, look for more of the same. These guys get together and marvel in private at the idiocy of the people who support them.

    1. Billionare Bloomberg going to put 100million into Florida to defeat Trump.

      Billionaires Globalist don’t like Trump. The Dems even tried to run a couple of Globalist for President, but nobody liked them.
      How does 100 million get you Florida is my question?

      I don’t know why people would vote against their own interest in favor of Globalist Billionaires, but I know the fear mongering of Climate Change and racial narratives .
      Really it’s a insult that Big Money gives a shit about people getting a fair deal.

      1. Bloomberg going to put 100million

        The irony is not lost on me, that these leading Democrats are opposed to Democracy. They don’t even try to hide it.

      2. How does 100 million get you Florida is my question?

        How many votes do they need to buy? Say it’s 1 million votes. That’s $100 a vote.

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