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Buyers Are Starting To Say Whoa, Wait A Minute, What Are We Doing Here?

A report from CNBC. “‘We actually believe the industry is already overbuilding in single-family to normalized demand by roughly 20% and about 10% for multi-family, so we couldn’t be on more of an opposite side of where the market is and where the industry is, frankly,’ said Ivy Zelman.”

From Market Watch. “Originations of large ‘jumbo’ U.S. residential mortgage loans that exceed ‘conforming limits’ set for housing giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could hit $550 billion this year, a level not seen since the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, BofA researchers wrote. The race to make large loans on expensive homes comes as property prices have surged during the pandemic, up almost 20% from a year ago, as of July, while touching fresh records in many cities across the nation.”

From CBS 5 in Arizona. “A Phoenix-area realtor reports that iBuyers own nearly 13% of all listings in Maricopa County. The reach of tech corporations can be felt at a gated community near Thomas Road and 32nd Street, where an iBuyer purchased a house for $600,000, $100,000 more than neighboring homes.”

From 6 News in Virginia. “While the pandemic has made it more difficult for people to buy a home in the Richmond area, real estate experts said the market has improve over the last six months, and now is the time to start looking. Christine Mottley, a real estate agent with One South Realty Group said Richmond is now seeing more homes available on the market than in the spring. ‘It might be cheaper to buy a home believe it or not, so yeah, depends on your situation,” Mottley said.”

The Press and Guide in Michigan. “The way veteran Realtor Robert Marx sees it, the housing market for Dearborn and Dearborn Heights is in the midst of a ‘little bit of a shift’ from the wild ride of the past year. ‘It’s subtle, but it’s happening,’ said Marx, pointing to a slight, end-of-summer cooldown for home sales. ‘We’re seeing it across the country, and we are seeing it here. Buyers are starting to say ‘Whoa, wait a minute, what are we doing here?'”

From Fox 31. “At this point, it seems as though Colorado’s housing market has stalled at the high prices reached during the summer, according to the Colorado Association of Realtors. In September, the median price of a single family home in the Denver metro counties was $562,000. This is a slight dip in the most recent Denver market history. In June, Denver metro’s median sales price for a single family home was about 20 grand more at $585,000, the highest point in history. The inventory of active listings has doubled since this January, from 2,000 to 4,100.”

The Williamson Home Page in Tennessee. “September statistics from Greater Nashville Realtors show the market frenzy might be starting to ease. Home sales in Williamson County decreased for the second consecutive month in September, according to GNR data. The median home sales price fell by 4 percent and total transaction volume dropped by nearly 38 percent from the month prior. While demand is still strong, some urgency has faded.”

“Highly desirable properties are still generating bidding wars, but others are sitting on the market, according to Greater Nashville Realtors president-elect Steve Jolly. High-end listings are more abundant because the investors who have been gobbling up single-family houses tend to purchase inexpensive homes to maximize returns, according to the NAR. ‘We are seeing fewer and fewer first-time homebuyers because of this,’ Jolly said.”

The Albuquerque Business Journal in New Mexico. “Ramon Casaus, CEO of ROC Real Estate Partners, said Albuquerque’s housing market is starting to correct itself. He has had to tweak his usual five-day plan for a new single-family home listing from months ago — but just slightly. The single-family home sat for an average of 13 days, which has been commonplace since the spring. ‘If a property isn’t sold in 30 days right now, something’s going on,’ he said. ‘You should have an offer within one week.'”

“‘Inventory in the greater Albuquerque area is improving, which is reflected in the slight drop in median sales price,’ said Belinda Franco, 2021 GAAR president. ‘This fall, buyers should have more options because homes are receiving less offers.'”

The Dallas Business Journal. “The DFW market is cooling because more inventory is coming on the market and the volume of homes sold has decreased over the last three months, Brown said. Sales prices are also declining a tad, she said. ‘It’s still pricey,’ said DFW Opendoor General Manager Sharon Brown. ‘It’s still a seller’s market, but because of the inventory lift, because there’s more supply on the market, the price is slowly coming down — not tremendously, but slightly.'”

“New home construction in DFW is booming — up 37%, which beats the Real Estate Research Center’s forecast of a 22% rise. Brown said conditions are improving for buyers in DFW. ‘It’s better to buy now, for example, in Dallas, than it was four months ago. But it’s worse to sell now than it was four months ago,’ Brown said.”

From Bloomberg. “Elon Musk reduced the offer price on the California mansion he’s selling as the world’s richest person cuts ties with the state. The Tesla Inc. chief executive officer’s 16,000-square-foot Bay Area house was offered for $31.99 million, down about $5.5 million from a prior listing, according to Zillow.”

From Senior Housing News. “Municipal bond defaults are climbing in 2021 — and the senior housing sector is at the top of the pile, according to Municipal Market Analytics. For the full year of 2021, the firm has so far recorded 47 first-time payment defaults, representing about $2.4 billion in credit. More than half (27) of the defaults were linked to senior housing communities, which is listed as a ‘risky’ sector for credit along with hospitals, student housing, jails and higher education.”

“The report suggests that there is still underlying pain in the senior housing industry. The report also shows that first-time payment defaults have risen since 2018, when Municipal Market Analytics tracked 46 defaults. The following year, defaults hit 55, before leaping up to 88 in 2020. ‘The slowest fourth quarter defaults total since 2009 was 14 — registered three times in 2014, 2017, and 2018 — suggesting that 2021 will see at least 13 more defaults by 12/31,’ the Municipal Market Analytics report reads.”

From Reuters. “Debt-saddled Chinese property firms took heavy fire in bond markets on Tuesday, after the poster child of the sector’s woes, Evergrande Group, missed its third round of bond payments in as many weeks and others wrned of defaults. ‘It is pretty serious now and it looks like it is going to be long and drawn out process,’ said London-based Trium Capital fund manager Peter Kisler about Evergrande and the wider crisis. ‘I don’t see the recovery being particularly high,’ he said referring to what Evergrande bondholders would get if the company gets broken up. ‘I think 20 cents [for every dollar of the bonds’ original face value] is more or less fair.'”

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This Post Has 82 Comments

  1. ‘A Phoenix-area realtor reports that iBuyers own nearly 13% of all listings in Maricopa County’

    Is that a lot?

  2. ‘I think 20 cents [for every dollar of the bonds’ original face value] is more or less fair’

    Click!

    2. ‘I think 20 cents [for every dollar of the bonds’ original face value] is more or less fair’

      Poof.

  3. ‘Inventory in the greater Albuquerque area is improving, which is reflected in the slight drop in median sales price’

    This little experiment with pumping up sh$tholes is about to be tested.

        1. the motivational speaker in that van down by the river.
          give him a break: I hear he has a “weight problem”

        1. if this is how they plan to circumvent Posse Comitatus, we can expect to see this broadly implemented over the next six months as flu season accelerates.

  5. Remember when the Panama Papers came out showing a huge conspiracy by hundreds of oligarchs to evade paying taxes by using offshore shell companies? Not a single thing happened to them…so when Yellen the Felon says giving the IRS full access to your banking transactions is about taxing billionaires, you’d have to be an utter moron to believe her. This is about giving Comrade Pelosi and her globalist puppet masters the means to loot and asset-strip the productive middle and working classes more efficiently.

    ‘I think this proposal has been seriously mischaracterized’: Janet Yellen defends plan for IRS to snoop on accounts with more than $600 and claims it will help make billionaires pay more tax

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10086681/This-seriously-mischaracterized-Janet-Yellen-defends-plan-IRS-snoop-accounts.html

    The Treasury Secretary has defended plans to monitor bank transactions of more than $600, insisting that the scheme was designed to end ‘tax fraud’ by billionaires, and would not mean Americans’ accounts were recorded.

    The new proposal requires financial institutions to annually report the total amount that went in and out of the bank as well as loan and investment accounts if within that year the accounts hold a value of at least $600 or if the total transactions are $600 or more in a year.

    1. Especially considering that Americans including Nancy Pelosi rt al were conspicuously absent from the list, which even by Felon Yellen’s account further reduces any justification of breach of 4 th Amendment rights of search for criminal activity without probable cause.

      1. Same violation of 4 th at TSA everyday.
        Incremental invasion.
        Our bags.
        Our bodies.
        Then our devices.
        Now our accounts.

        1. They are trying to pass a law in Ireland that makes it a crime punishable by imprisonment to not hand over passwords to your devices upon request by any police officer (guards).

    2. “…insisting that the scheme was designed to end ‘tax fraud’ by billionaires, and would not mean Americans’…”

      If such an intrusion were to be actually implemented, so called ‘billionaires’ would simply move questionable transactions to crypto.

      Remember, Jamie Dimon proclaims crypto such as bitcoin “worthless”
      Why? To provide him political cover when such laws are implemented.

      1. Or set up a Clinton Harry and Meghan style Foundation, donate 5% of the proceeds, fund an extra agent lifestyle and bank everything else

    2. Let’s Go Brandon!

      best mock ever! relatively few know about it yet. but as it gets used more, they’ll try to find out what it means and where it came from. plus, it’s going to be harder to censor than the original. people around the world are going to be asking ‘what does let’s go brandon mean?’ and even when it finally gets censored, the left gets more exposed for what they really are.

      LGB

  7. Latest from #ClownWorld.

    Father whose daughter was ‘raped’ in girls’ bathroom by ‘skirt-wearing’ male student slams AG Merrick Garland for threatening parents who protest school boards after he was dragged out of Loudoun County for trying to say staff ignored incident

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10086761/Father-daughter-raped-girls-bathroom-slams-Merrick-Garland.html

    The Virginia father who was arrested at a school board meeting while protesting its proposed transgender policies after claiming his daughter was raped in a girls’ bathroom by ‘skirt-wearing’ male student has slammed Merrick Garland for threatening parents who protest school boards.

    Scott Smith, 48, appeared on Fox News’ The Ingraham Angle and spoke out after he was photographed being dragged out of a school board in Leesburg, Virginia meeting this June and was painted by the left to be a deranged, right-wing bigot.

    1. That’s who these globalists are. They literally want your kids raped.

      I’m not religious, but the last time I checked Leviticus / Deuteronomy, the term for these trannies is “abomination.”

      That’s what you are, you’re the perversion of nature, and an abomination in the eyes of God.

    2. The Soros sponsored DA showed up at that father’s court appearance and demanded he get jail time for daring to raise his voice to the schoolboard about the rape of his 14 year-old daughter by a boy wearing a skirt,

      by Kelen McBreen
      October 12th 2021, 2:03 pm

      What set Smith off at the school board meeting where he was arrested was when the school claimed it had no record of any rape occurring in relation to transgender bathroom policies at the school.

      Meanwhile, the same liberal prosecutor who threw the book at Smith over the school board meeting arrest allowed the transgender student to attend another school in the district where they committed another sexually abusive act.

      Moments before his arrest, another parent allegedly accused Smith’s daughter of lying about the bathroom rape.

  8. “… iBuyer purchased a house for $600,000, $100,000 more than neighboring homes.”

    And if iBuyer owned any of these neighboring homes then the value of the company will have increased.

    If iBuyer owned, say ten comparable homes, then collectively these comparables will have its value increased by $1,000,000, hence a $600,000 purchase creates $1,000,000 of added value.

    Magic! Especially if all the buying was using money that didn’t exist until it was borrowed, borrowed into existence.

    1. The more iBuyer overpays for a house the greater the value of the company increases if the company owns any of the comps AND the greater the lure to the fully dumbed-down pukes who fully buy into the concept that Price equals Value.

      iBuyer jumps up the price, the dumbed-down see this phenom as an increase in value and their brain-numbed emotion of FOMO kicks in and – Presto! – buying demand is created.

      All these dumbed-down pukes need to complete this financial insane transaction is money, a need which brings them to me for some, er, finishing touches.

      I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.

      1. Bahahahaha … a man’s life is not complete until he purchases an vastly overpriced house; Then it is finished.

        Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

  11. The Financial Times
    Bitcoin
    US overtakes China as biggest bitcoin mining hub after Beijing ban
    Crackdown on digital currencies knocks country’s share of crypto production to zero
    An illustration of a bitcoin logo on a smartphone with a Chinese flag
    Chinese crypto miners had dominated the profitable but volatile industry before Beijing announced a ban in May
    © SOPA Images/LightRocket via Gett
    Eleanor Olcott in London
    6 hours ago

    The US overtook China as the world’s biggest source of bitcoin mining two months after Beijing banned crypto mining this year, new data have revealed.

    China’s share of the global hashrate — the computational power required to create bitcoin — fell from 44 per cent to zero between May and July, showed figures published by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance on Wednesday. The country accounted for three-quarters of the global hashrate in 2019.

    The US share of the global hashrate increased from 17 per cent in April to 35 per in August, while Kazakhstan rose 10 percentage points to 18 per cent in the same period.
    …

    1. What will become of all these cryptocurrency investors when they realize they have blown their life savings on the Emperor’s New Currency?

      1. Realized it’s a typical Ponzi scheme but my attitude is changing a little. The FED and the economy are so insane this could last way longer than most expect.

    2. Funny I haven’t heard anything about the environmental impacts of Bitcoin mining from these liberal cvck fvcks engaging in it.

  13. Off topic, but important in today’s cancel culture/globalist sh!tbag system. Jon Gruden (Raiders coach, don’t like him personally) got canceled for things he said many, many years ago between two private parties – emails that were never meant for the prying eyes of others. This is wrong on many levels.

    These emails were found during a formal investigation into the REDSKINS (yes, REDSKINS) and their owner Daniel Snyder by the NFL itself. This “investigation” was about an alleged “toxic culture” within the organization, whatever the fvck that means. Further, the investigation and the results were supposed to be confidential, and none of the information collected was ever supposed to be “leaked.” Yet, the libtard cvck fvck New York Times started posting information from these private emails. How did the libtard fvcks at the New York Times get these emails? That’s none of your business, we’re told. Which brings me to my point in all of this – these globalist sh!tbags and their libtard cvck fvck attorneys are hiding behind anonymity. It’s the same thing as the “MUH RUSSIA!” narrative and the associated investigation into DJT.

    This whole “anonymous sources” bullsh!t needs to go away. Furthermore, anybody leaking said personal information should be forced to undergo a forensic audit of all of their past emails the past 25 or 30 years, making them public. Fair’s fair, right? Fvck this cancel culture bullsh!t. It’s selective and these libtard cvck fvcks are hiding behind closed doors. It’s time to drag these wimpy soyboi out into the streets and expose them.

    1. There is definitely a two tiered formal and informal justice system in the US. Just compare the lack of attention Hunter Biden got for his emails and compare it it to the 24/7 coverage Gruden received.

      Or how about the FBI now looking for anyone within a certain proximity radius to the Capitol Building on Jan 6th as opposed to Antifa/BLM getting a slap on the wrist, if that, for looting, battery and even manslaughter.

      Progs have now taken over the school boards, universities, government, law enforcement, the courts and the military. I don’t know if there is any way to come back from all of this.

      1. Maybe when Progs start getting shot in the face? Like maybe a father whose daughter was raped being silenced by a school board?

        Do school board members have a security detail? Do they walk to their car in the parking lot? Just wait….it’s coming.

      3. “I don’t know if there is any way to come back from all of this.”

        “Biden is America’s point of no return.” —Thomas Sowell

    2. I like this idea. There’s that old saying, “When a man points a finger at someone else, he should remember that four of his fingers are pointing at himself”.
      Louis Nizer

    1. Housing Bubble Risks Are Accelerating Across Europe, Hong Kong
      Olivia Konotey-Ahulu
      October 13, 2021, 1:00 am

      (Bloomberg) — The risk of housing bubbles across Europe has accelerated as the pandemic sparked a global spending spree on larger living spaces that was turbocharged by central banks’ aggressive stimulus.

      With Frankfurt topping the list, European cities accounted for six out of nine of the world’s most imbalanced housing markets, according to UBS Group AG’s Global Real Estate Bubble Index released on Wednesday. Bubble risk also accelerated in Toronto, Hong Kong and Vancouver, the report showed.

      House prices rocketed around the world in the past year as the cost of borrowing slipped to rock bottom and buyers put a heightened premium on space and greenery. While all but four of the cities UBS surveyed saw values increase, the bank warned those hikes could abruptly halt across most markets as lending policies begin to be loosened amid easing pandemic restrictions.

      “On average, bubble risk has increased during the last year, as has the potential severity of a price correction in many cities tracked by the index,” wrote the authors of the report. “Worsening affordability, unsustainable mortgage lending, and a rising divergence between prices and rents have historically served as forerunners of housing crises.”
      …

    1. The Financial Times
      2 hours ago
      Fed officials signal end of asset purchase programme by mid-2022
      Colby Smith in Washington

      The Federal Reserve is poised to begin phasing out its pandemic-era stimulus programme as early as next month and wrap up the process by mid-2022, as the economic recovery advances and more officials pencil in an interest rate rise next year.

      Minutes from the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed officials firming up their plans for the eventual end to the $120bn monthly asset purchase programme that has been in place since last year to bolster financial markets and the economy.

      Consensus is building for a reduction or “taper” of those bond-buys “soon”, according to the minutes, as the Fed moves closer to declaring victory on achieving “substantial further progress” towards its dual goals of inflation that averages 2 per cent and maximum employment.

      “Participants noted that if a decision to begin tapering purchases occurred at the next meeting, the process of tapering could commence with the monthly purchase calendars beginning in either mid-November or mid-December,” the minutes said.

      The record also shows support for the Fed to pull back its Treasury purchases by $10bn per month and its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities by $5bn. That would mean the stimulus ends during the second half of next year.
      …

      1. Runaway inflation, and 6 million people either quit or were laid off in August while we added 500k jobs but we’re at full employment. The Fed operates on a level that us mere mortals cannot comprehend.

  17. Sherrod Brown, chairman of the Senate Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, said that the Federal Reserve should stop work on banking regulations will a new VP of regulation is confirmed by Congress: https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/fed-should-halt-work-on-new-bank-regulations-top-democrat-says

    Earlier, Senator Brown had said that now is not the time to stop easy money policies, during a recent questioning of J-Pow before Congress.

    To see who’s really calling the shots, see the list of people on the Senate Banking committee (members list in page footer): https://www.banking.senate.gov/

    Also, here’s a list of primary dealers (click on the plus sign at the top section to expand the section and show the list): https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealers – the CEOs of these companies also call the shots too, maybe moreso than the pols whom they fund. “Who’s shaking who down?”

    2. Sam’s Club has a delicious Broc & Cheddar soup but it also has a bit of mustard, causing it to be eschewed by everyone else in the house but me 🐷

      1. Sometimes the dollar store has one gallon cans of Campbells chicken noodle. I buy 3 or 4 of them and and refill a Mcdonalds mega cup with just the broth. Nuke it for a minute and it’s ready. Sometimes I’ll add a couple cubes of chicken bouillion to the cup just for the extra kick.

    4. Bought this Soup recently. Good until you look at the sodium and fat content on the back. 1 Cup = 100% RDA salt and fat.

      Yummy!

    1. The Financial Times
      Evergrande Real Estate Group
      Evergrande crisis leaves Chinese developers shut out of global debt markets
      Just one dollar bond sold since heavily indebted company’s missed payment shook markets
      An aerial view of construction sites in China’s Qinghai province
      Turmoil at Evergrande has in effect frozen other Chinese developers out of global debt markets, making it more difficult for them to secure much-needed refinancing deals
      Hudson Lockett and Thomas Hale in Hong Kong 6 hours ago

      International bond sales by Chinese developers have all but halted as the crisis at China Evergrande stokes fears of defaults across the country’s property sector, throttling a crucial driver of Asia’s high-yield debt market.

      Just one developer has managed to tap overseas bond investors since Evergrande, the world’s most indebted real estate group, missed an $83.5m interest payment last month, rattling global markets.

      The $102m bond sale by Helenbergh China Holdings this month has done little to address huge funding shortfalls among heavily leveraged property groups. Issuance of high-yield dollar debt is down 28 per cent from a year ago, according to data from Dealogic.

      Bankers and investors said conditions were likely only to worsen without intervention from Beijing.

      “The market really has turned quite gloomy,” said a senior debt capital markets banker at one European bank, who estimated that a third of the approximately 60 Chinese developers with outstanding dollar debt could end up permanently frozen out of international finance, further weakening deal flow.

      The banker added that while investors had been braced for a missed payment by Evergrande for months, a sudden default last week by luxury developer Fantasia “was a real shock to the market”.

      An ICE index tracking Chinese corporate issuers in Asia’s high-yield bond market demonstrates the scale of market contagion. The effective yield on the index has shot up to 24 per cent this week from 10 per cent in June, after fears of defaults spiralled across the developer property sector.
      …

    2. Chinese real estate developers fretting about debt defaults
      Evergrande misses another payment, reviving memories of 2008 fiscal crisis
      The Washington Post | October 13, 2021 at 2:02 a.m.

      A growing number of Chinese property developers are saying they can’t pay their debts, raising concerns of financial contagion as troubled property developer Evergrande Group missed another interest payment to bondholders on Tuesday.

      Several Chinese real estate developers have warned of defaults on bonds in recent days, including Modern Land and Sinic Holdings, which said Monday it probably would be unable to repay a $250 million bond by the Oct. 18 due date.

      Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, is set to formally enter default on Oct. 23, when the grace period ends for its first missed bond payment. On Tuesday, the company missed a third round of payments, bondholders confirmed to Reuters, intensifying investor jitters.

      Fears over an Evergrande collapse have caused Chinese property developers’ bonds to slump, as investors pull their money to safer quarters. The company’s troubles have made it harder for its peers to raise new funds or refinance, prompting some to announce they cannot meet their payments.

      Modern Land, a Beijing-based property developer, asked investors on Monday to allow it to delay repayment of a $250 million bond for three months “to avoid any potential payment default.”

      Last week, Shenzhen-based developer Fantasia Holdings Group failed to pay back a $206 million bond, citing the effects of the pandemic, industry regulations and the economy.

      The sum of Chinese real estate companies’ bond defaults more than doubled this year, to $7.2 billion as of Sept. 27, from $2.8 billion a year earlier, according to property research center CRIC.

      The crisis has revived memories of Lehman Brothers’ collapse in 2008, which sparked a global financial crisis. Economists so far have played down the comparison, saying that while Beijing may let Evergrande and certain other companies fail as a warning to others, the government is unlikely to allow widespread economic fallout.

      “Its spillover impact appears largely manageable,” investment bank UBS said in a research note on Monday, saying there were signs from Chinese authorities that they would help limit the fallout.

      In China, apportionment of blame has begun. After online allegations that he was among those at fault, Ren Zeping, the company’s former chief economist, declared that he had warned the company about its risks.

      Ren wrote on Chinese social media platform WeChat on Monday that not long after joining Evergrande, he had called for the company to reduce its level of debt and tighten its focus, but he had received internal criticism from other executives.

      “I planned to make a difference, but I encountered a setback,” he wrote. “It was a big blow to me.”
      …

  20. “The effective yield on the index has shot up to 24 per cent this week from 10 per cent in June,…”

    Does anyone who reads here know what percentage loss in market value for Chinese real estate development bonds is associated with this yield spike?

    And what company can afford to borrow at 24 percent?

  21. These 4 Chinese real estate developers are already in trouble
    By Anneken Tappe, CNN Business
    Updated 8:09 AM ET, Tue October 12, 2021

    (CNN Business)
    China’s real estate crisis isn’t showing any sign of letting up.

    Embattled conglomerate Evergrande rattled global markets in September by warning it could default on its huge debts. Since then, more developers have made similar public confessions, unnerving investors and raising fears of contagion across the vast sector.

    It’s unclear how the crisis will be resolved. The companies could try to restructure their debts and work things out with their lenders. They could also seek bailouts from the Chinese government, but so far Beijing has said little on the issue besides promising to protect homebuyers.

    The final — and worst — option would be a disorderly series of defaults, which would send shock waves across China’s economy, and perhaps beyond.

    Four developers have already run into trouble as China’s once red-hot real estate industry cools rapidly.

    Evergrande
    …

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