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  2. I’ve followed the first video guy for a few weeks. He’s getting philosophical. Stages of grief etc. This is a time when it’s exciting to get up each day and find out what’s next.

    1. No kidding! I can’t say a collapsing bubble is conducive to a good night’s rest.

  3. ‘Market expectations for a 75 basis point rate hike rose above 90 per cent on Tuesday, up from just 4 per cent a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. It is based on futures contracts used to hedge exposure to interest rate moves.’

    ‘This shift in investor sentiment has roiled financial markets. Bonds, equities and alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies have sold off dramatically in recent days.’

    “We can’t allow a wage price spiral to happen, and we can’t allow inflation expectations to become unanchored,” Fed chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference after the central bank’s meeting in May. “It’s just something that we can’t allow to happen.”

    ‘Markets also appear to have reacted to a story published in The Wall Street Journal on Monday, which said recent CPI and inflation expectations data “is likely to lead Federal Reserve officials to consider surprising markets with a larger-than-expected 0.75-percentage-point interest-rate increase.”

    ‘The Fed is in a blackout period ahead of the rate announcement, and has not commented on recent market moves. Mr. Powell said in May a 75 basis point increase “is not something the committee is actively considering.”

    “Hiking 75 is not going to be a costless move by the Fed,” Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Bank of Nova Scotia, wrote in a note to clients.’

    “If they do indeed hike by 75bps tomorrow, then even their one-meeting ahead forward guidance will become utterly useless. Every meeting will become open season on the Fed and power to drive market volatility will be handed over to media outlets.”

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-wall-street-girds-for-possible-fed-increase-not-seen-since-the-1990s/

    1. The trouble the Fed may face if they don’t fulfill market rate hike expectations is an even faster acceleration in inflation. Their situation right at the moment reminds me of that scene in Deliverance when the canoers encounter a waterfall on the Chattooga River. Some times, you just can’t paddle fast enough to save yourself.

  4. ‘In today’s market home buying and home building can come with a lot of questions and can feel a little overwhelming. Today we got to sit down with Chris Dorey of Interra Homes and Eric Hesse of Lake Michigan Credit Union to talk about this process and how a home buyer can be armed with more knowledge.’

    ‘Right now, Interra Homes has more than 40 homes for sales and more are always becoming available. Buyers can receive up to $7,000 towards closing costs with a full-price offer on some of the Interra Homes.’

    ‘When you build with Interra Homes and use LMCU as a preferred lender, LMCU can lock in your interest rates so no matter what happens, your rate is set. Interra Homes will carry the construction loan for you, which is a huge help. Right now, until June 30th, if you build with Interra Homes you get all the perks of no payments during the build and low deposits as well as receiving up to $5,000 toward a long-term rate lock.’

    https://www.woodtv.com/eightwest/arm-yourself-with-knowledge-in-the-hot-housing-market/

    ‘Buyers can receive up to $7,000 towards closing costs with a full-price offer’

    Sound lending!

    1. It looks like housing is back to 2006 levels. None of the NINJA loans this time, but crypto and meme stocks have become the madness.
      Got popcorn? This baby is going to blow.

  5. ‘That loud sucking sound we hear is the stock market digesting the work of a hawkish Fed that’s trying to fight unexpectedly sticky inflation.’

    “We expect a tumultuous year, and our plan was not to sell into extreme whooshes — I would say we are in an extreme whoosh,” Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist Tony Dwyer said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “I would say if you are looking to cut back exposure because money availability and the outlook isn’t so great, I would love to do it on a ramp — some kind of oversold bounce — [rather] than into an extreme whoosh.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-strategist-we-are-in-an-extreme-woosh-193525300.html

    1. Fed that’s trying to fight unexpectedly sticky inflation

      How stupid are we? The Fed did the Inflation (gross expansion of the money supply). Now they’re the champion fighting it?

  6. ‘Hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. offloaded US equities for a seventh straight day Monday, with the dollar amount of selling over the last two sessions exploding to levels not seen since the firm’s prime broker began tracking the data in April 2008.’

    ‘The exodus came as the equity rout worsened amid concerns that the Federal Reserve will need to hasten its inflation-fighting campaign at the risk of causing an economic recession. As stocks careened and Treasury yields spiked, the fast money rushed to double down on bearish wagers.’

    ‘In the note published Tuesday, Goldman said short sales at its hedge-fund clients climbed “aggressively,” with broad-based investing strategies — or macro products — like exchange-traded funds dominating the flows.’

    “They’re saying the market’s going down further,” Benjamin Dunn, president of Alpha Theory Advisors, said by phone. “Sentiment is just pretty much in the toilet.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fund-selling-never-more-155042331.html

  7. ‘Bitcoin has fallen more than 30% this month. Its decline Wednesday marks its ninth straight day of losses, with the rate of change over the past three days at 24% — the starkest drop in its history.’

    “Bitcoin trades like a penny stock,” Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, said in an interview. “There’s all kinds of reason to think that once it starts falling quickly, it can continue to fall. If it can move 20% in two days, it can move another 20% the next two days.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-rout-hits-darkest-phase-053249254.html

  9. The posting of falling housing prices across YewTewb yesterday caused such violent reaction that the comment section went down worldwide.

    There is no crisis….. in falling housing prices.

    Laguna Hills, CA Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As Mortgage Defaults Blanket Orange County

    https://www.movoto.com/laguna-hills-ca/market-trends/

    As one Orange County broker explained, “I had a sale in January of last year for $780k. That same house sold last week for $425k. That’s a helluva beating right there.”

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Technology
      WorldCom’s stark warning for today’s bear market
      Popping tech bubbles can deflate more than just the obvious start-ups
      Activists hold up signs during a rally on Wall Street against the Bush administration’s settlement with WorldCom in 2003
      It was WorldCom, which admitted in June 2002 to booking billions of dollars in inflated profits, that spurred the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley law
      Brooke Masters an hour ago

      Twenty years ago next week, a massive accounting scandal hit a leading US growth company, drove it into bankruptcy and spurred tighter accounting and securities laws that still shape America today.

      No, not Enron. The Texas energy group, which collapsed six months earlier, has become shorthand for corporate fraud, even inspiring a musical. But it was the Mississippi-based telecoms company WorldCom, which admitted in June 2002 to booking billions of dollars in inflated profits, that finally spurred the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate accountability law.

      The lesson for today’s investors is more than WorldCom’s fraud, however. A Wall Street darling, the company soared through the 1990s, gobbling up rivals and telling investors that the rise of the internet would drive huge increases in network demand. But it hit a wall amid the 2000s dotcom crash, when the actual data traffic failed to keep pace with investment.

      With the US currently tipping into another tech-driven bear market, WorldCom’s $104bn bankruptcy (still the third-largest in US history) contains important warnings.

      Back in May 2002, efforts to tighten US securities laws to prevent another Enron had bogged down completely, as Congress squabbled over just how tough to be. A less stringent bill pushed by House Republican Michael Oxley was gaining the upper hand when news broke of an even bigger fraud. WorldCom had been reclassifying billions of dollars in operating costs as capital expenditures to boost reported profit margins.

      The manoeuvre disguised WorldCom’s slowing growth at a time when competitors such as AT&T were laying off workers. Folksy chief executive Bernie Ebbers was eventually sentenced to 25 years in prison.

      The scandal gave Senator Paul Sarbanes and reformists the upper hand. They forced through the creation of an auditing regulator and required companies to demonstrate they had adequate internal financial controls. Critics say that “Sarbox” has deterred fast-growing companies from floating, leading to a drop in the ranks of US listed groups.

      Fans of the law counter that US corporates have largely avoided massive accounting scandals since it passed, unlike the UK and Germany. But that record could be tested if another recession hits.

      Now another bubble appears to be rapidly deflating, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down more than 30 per cent for the year. Start-ups without a clear path to profits have taken the biggest hits so far. But the financial woes that started WorldCom down the road to fraud stand as a warning to investors that fledgling companies aren’t the only ones at risk.

      In the 2001 crash, companies such as Cisco and Sun Microsystems that supplied start-ups with servers, routers and software got hammered along with their customers. But telecoms such as WorldCom also suffered because they built infrastructure for users and data demand that failed to materialise.

      This time around, suppliers in the line of fire are likely to include purveyors of cloud computing and software as a service, as well as the online advertising and platform companies that start-ups pay to help them find new customers. The largest are diversified companies, but that hasn’t stopped Google shares from falling 25 per cent this year, and Facebook is down by twice that.

      Investors looking for WorldCom-like strains may want to watch for companies that have boasted of rapid revenue growth and an “if you build it, they will come” approach. Those investing in blockchain-related infrastructure come to mind as the prices of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tumble.
      …

      1. “Fans of the law counter that US corporates have largely avoided massive accounting scandals since it passed, unlike the UK and Germany. But that record could be tested if another recession hits.”

        ‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.’

        — Warren Buffett

      2. 9 trillion dollars has been lost in cryptocurrency and the stock market in 2022. Personal debt is spiraling out of control. But the big spending still lurches forward. Wait just a few more months and this is going to get interesting.

  12. Treasury bond yield inversion raises worries over recession

    One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession started blinking again
    By The Associated Press
    June 14, 2022, 1:53 PM
    Jerome Powell
    FILE – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell participates in a swearing-in ceremony, Mon…
    The Associated Press

    NEW YORK — One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession started blinking again.

    The “yield curve” is watched for clues on how the bond market feels about the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy. On Tuesday, a closely followed part of the yield curve briefly lit up for the second time this year.

    WHAT IS THE YIELD CURVE?
    …
    https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/treasury-bond-yield-inversion-raises-worries-recession-85376391

    1. Some morning when youre doing your music you’re gonna see that rate go double digits and youre gonna pluck a string off your fiddle entirely.

  13. Kensington, MD Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Maryland And Virginia Housing Market Slides Into They Abyss

    https://www.movoto.com/md/20895/market-trends/

    As one national broker conceded, “We’ve been scraping the bottom of the buyer barrel for 15 years or more. Why do you think mortgage defaults are 600% higher than long term trend?”

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